ALBERT

Description: Evolution of extreme Total Water Levels along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 613-625, 2011 Author(s): D. F. Rasilla Álvarez and J. C. García Codron This paper assesses the evolution of storminess along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula through the calculation of extreme (1%) Total Water Levels (eTWL) on both observed (tide gauge and buoy data) and hindcasted (SIMAR-44) data. Those events were first identified and then characterized in terms of oceanographic parameters and atmospheric circulation features. Additionally, an analysis of the long-term trends in both types of data was performed. Most of the events correspond to a rough wave climate and moderate storm surges, linked to extratropical disturbances following a northern track. While local atmospheric conditions seem to be evolving towards lesser storminess, their impact has been balanced by the favorable exposure of the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula to the increasing frequency and strength of distant disturbances crossing the North Atlantic. This evolution is also correctly reproduced by the simulated long-term evolution of the forcing component (meteorological sea level residuals and wave run up) of the Total Water Level values calculated from the SIMAR 44 database, since sea level residuals have been experiencing a reduction while waves are arriving with longer periods. Finally, the addition of the rate of relative sea level trend to the temporal evolution of the atmospheric forcing component of the Total Water Level values is enough to simulate more frequent and persistent eTWL.

Description: iGen: the automated generation of a parameterisation of entrainment in marine stratocumulus Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 971-995, 2011 Author(s): D. F. Tang and S. Dobbie In a previous paper we described a new technique for automatically generating parameterisations using a program called iGen. iGen generates parameterisations by analysing the source code of a high resolution model that resolves the physics to be parameterised. In order to demonstrate that this technique scales up to deal with models of realistic complexity we have used iGen to generate a parameterisation of entrainment in marine stratocumulus. We present details of our technique in which iGen was used to analyse the source code of a cloud resolving model and generate a parameterisation of the mean and standard deviation of entrainment velocity in marine stratocumulus in terms of the large-scale state of the boundary layer. The parameterisation was tested against results from the DYCOMS-II intercomparison of cloud resolving models and iGen's parameterisation of mean entrainment velocity was found to be 5.27 × 10 −3 ± 0.62 × 10 −3 m s −1 compared to 5.2 × 10 −3 ± 0.8 × 10 −3 m s −1 for the DYCOMS-II ensemble of cloud resolving models.

Description: The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 689-763, 2011 Author(s): C. D. Jones, J. K. Hughes, N. Bellouin, S. C. Hardiman, G. S. Jones, J. Knight, S. Liddicoat, F. M. O'Connor, R. J. Andres, C. Bell, K.-O. Boo, A. Bozzo, N. Butchart, P. Cadule, K. D. Corbin, M. Doutriaux-Boucher, P. Friedlingstein, J. Gornall, L. Gray, P. R. Halloran, G. Hurtt, W. Ingram, J.-F. Lamarque, R. M. Law, M. Meinshausen, S. Osprey, E. J. Palin, L. Parsons Chini, T. Raddatz, M. Sanderson, A. A. Sellar, A. Schurer, P. Valdes, N. Wood, S. Woodward, M. Yoshioka, and M. Zerroukat The scientific understanding of the Earth's climate system, including the central question of how the climate system is likely to respond to human-induced perturbations, is comprehensively captured in GCMs and Earth System Models(ESM). Diagnosing the simulated climate response, and comparing responses across different models, is crucially dependent on transparent assumptions of how the GCM/ESM has been driven – especially because the implementation can involve subjective decisions and may differ between modelling groups performing the same experiment. This paper outlines the climate forcings and setup of the Met Office Hadley Centre ESM, HadGEM2-ES for the CMIP5 set of centennial experiments. We document the prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol precursors, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone assumptions, as well as implementation of land-use change and natural forcings for the HadGEM2-ES historical and future experiments following the Representative Concentration Pathways. In addition, we provide details of how HadGEM2-ES ensemble members were initialised from the control run and how the palaeoclimate and AMIP experiments, as well as the "emission-driven" RCP experiments were performed.

Description: A Mesoproterozoic continental flood rhyolite province, the Gawler Ranges, Australia: the end member example of the Large Igneous Province clan Solid Earth, 2, 25-33, 2011 Author(s): M. J. Pankhurst, B. F. Schaefer, P. G. Betts, N. Phillips, and M. Hand Rhyolite and dacite lavas of the Mesoproterozoic upper Gawler Range Volcanics (GRV) (〉30 000 km 3 preserved), South Australia, represent the remnants of one of the most voluminous felsic magmatic events preserved on Earth. Geophysical interpretation suggests eruption from a central cluster of feeder vents which supplied large-scale lobate flows 〉100 km in length. Pigeonite inversion thermometers indicate eruption temperatures of 950–1100 °C. The lavas are A-type in composition (e.g. high Ga/Al ratios) and characterised by elevated primary halogen concentrations (~1600 ppm fluorine, ~400 ppm chlorine). These depolymerised the magma such that temperature-composition-volatile non-Arrhenian melt viscosity modelling suggests they had viscosities of

Description: The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model Climate configurations Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 765-841, 2011 Author(s): The HadGEM2 Development Team: Martin, G. M., N. Bellouin, W. J. Collins, I. D. Culverwell, P. R. Halloran, S. C. Hardiman, T. J. Hinton, C. D. Jones, R. E. McDonald, A. J. McLaren, F. M. O'Connor, M. J. Roberts, J. M. Rodriguez, S. Woodward, M. J. Best, M. E. Brooks, A. R. Brown, N. Butchart, C. Dearden, S. H. Derbyshire, I. Dharssi, M. Doutriaux-Boucher, J. M. Edwards, P. D. Falloon, N. Gedney, L. J. Gray, H. T. Hewitt, M. Hobson, M. R. Huddleston, J. Hughes, S. Ineson, W. J. Ingram, P. M. James, T. C. Johns, C. E. Johnson, A. Jones, C. P. Jones, M. M. Joshi, A. B. Keen, S. Liddicoat, A. P. Lock, A. V. Maidens, J. C. Manners, S. F. Milton, J. G. L. Rae, J. K. Ridley, A. Sellar, C. A. Senior, I. J. Totterdell, A. Verhoef, P. L. Vidale, and A. Wiltshire We describe the HadGEM2 family of climate configurations of the Met Office Unified Model, MetUM. The concept of a model "family" comprises a range of specific model configurations incorporating different levels of complexity but with a common physical framework. The HadGEM2 family of configurations includes atmosphere and ocean components, with and without a vertical extension to include a well-resolved stratosphere, and an Earth-System (ES) component which includes dynamic vegetation, ocean biology and atmospheric chemistry. The HadGEM2 physical model includes improvements designed to address specific systematic errors encountered in the previous climate configuration, HadGEM1, namely Northern Hemisphere continental temperature biases and tropical sea surface temperature biases and poor variability. Targeting these biases was crucial in order that the ES configuration could represent important biogeochemical climate feedbacks. Detailed descriptions and evaluations of particular HadGEM2 family members are included in a number of other publications, and the discussion here is limited to a summary of the overall performance using a set of model metrics which compare the way in which the various configurations simulate present-day climate and its variability.

Description: On the acoustic model of lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling before earthquakes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1011-1017, 2011 Author(s): C.-V. Meister, B. Mayer, P. Dziendziel, F. Fülbert, D. H. H. Hoffmann, and V. A. Liperovsky In this work, the many-fluid magnetohydrodynamic theory is applied to describe the modification of the electromagnetic field of the ionospheric E-layer by acoustic-type waves. There, altitudinal profiles of the electromagnetic field and the plasma parameters of the atmosphere and ionosphere are taken into account. It is concluded that at E-region altitudes above seismo-active regions, magnetohydrodynamic waves as Alfvén and magnetoacoustic ones might change their amplitude and direction of propagation. Waves of the Farley-Buneman type might also be excited a few days before very strong earthquakes. The collisions between the neutral and charged particles of the E-layer also cause diffusion and heating processes. Thus, changes of the characteristic foE-frequency might be obtained.

Description: Towards an online-coupled chemistry-climate model: evaluation of COSMO-ART Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1809-1874, 2011 Author(s): C. Knote, D. Brunner, H. Vogel, J. Allan, A. Asmi, M. Äijälä, S. Carbone, H. D. van der Gon, J. L. Jimenez, A. Kiendler-Scharr, C. Mohr, L. Poulain, A. S. H. Prévôt, E. Swietlicki, and B. Vogel The online-coupled, regional chemistry transport model COSMO-ART is evaluated for periods in all seasons against several measurement datasets to assess its ability to represent gaseous pollutants and ambient aerosol characteristics over the European domain. Measurements used in the comparison include long-term station observations, satellite and ground-based remote sensing products, and complex datasets of aerosol chemical composition and number size distribution from recent field campaigns. This is the first time these comprehensive measurements of aerosol characteristics in Europe are used to evaluate a regional chemistry transport model. We show a detailed analysis of the simulated size-resolved chemical composition under different meteorological conditions. The model is able to represent trace gas concentrations with good accuracy and reproduces bulk aerosol properties rather well though with a clear tendency to underestimate both total mass (PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) and aerosol optical depth. We find indications of an overestimation of shipping emissions. Time evolution of aerosol chemical composition is captured, although some biases are found in relative composition. Nitrate aerosol components are on average overestimated, and sulfates underestimated. The accuracy of simulated organics depends strongly on season and location. While strongly underestimated during summer, organic mass is comparable in spring and autumn. We see indications for an overestimated fractional contribution of primary organic matter in urban areas and an underestimation of SOA at many locations. Aerosol number concentrations can be simulated well, size distributions are comparable. Our work sets the basis for subsequent studies of aerosol characteristics and climate impacts with COSMO-ART, and highlights areas where improvements are necessary for current regional modeling systems in general.

Description: Future water availability in selected European catchments: a probabilistic assessment of seasonal flows under the IPCC A1B emission scenario using response surfaces Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2163-2171, 2011 Author(s): M. Weiß A grid-based water balance model is used to quantify exceedance probabilities of high and low stream flow thresholds, and analyse their progression over the course of the 21st century. The analysis is carried out for 18 European river basins using the response surface method in combination with probabilistic projections of climate change, conditional to the IPCC A1B emission scenario up to 2100. According to this study, Nordic basins have the highest probability of high flow threshold violation in Europe, while in Central and Southern European basins, the probability of low flow threshold violation is highest. While the high flow violation occurs mostly during winter, with other seasons being likewise probable, low flow violation only occurs in summer. Some basins are facing an increased stream flow amplitude, having high probabilities for both, high flow and low flow violations.

Description: Hazard assessment investigations due to recent changes in Triftgletscher, Bernese Alps, Switzerland Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2149-2162, 2011 Author(s): P. Dalban Canassy, A. Bauder, M. Dost, R. Fäh, M. Funk, S. Margreth, B. Müller, and S. Sugiyama The details and the consequences of the recent retreat of Triftgletscher (Gadmertal, Bernese Alps, Switzerland) have been investigated. Geodetic volume changes indicate a strong decrease since 1929 while the position of the terminus remained practically unchanged until 1990. The role played by calving in the tongue retreat running from 2000 to 2006 is confirmed by means of a mass balance model including a calving criterion. Results show that without calving, it would have taken two years longer for the lake to form than has been observed. The consequences of the ensuing tongue destabilization are surveyed, first with an ice avalanche model and second with a hydraulic study of the potential impulse wave triggered by the impact of the falling ice mass in the lake. Results point out that ice avalanches with volumes greater that 1 × 10 6 m 3 will flow into the lake and that in the worst scenario, a discharge of 400 m 3 s −1 is expected to reach the endangered area in Gadmertal 11 min after the break-off. In order to detect surface motion precursors to such ice avalanches, a photographic monitoring system was installed. The results indicate seasonal variations with peak velocity in summer and no significant change during the other months. Spectacular velocity increases were not observed so far.

Description: Mapping the climate: guidance on appropriate techniques to map climate variables and their uncertainty Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1875-1906, 2011 Author(s): N. R. Kaye, A. Hartley, and D. Hemming Maps are a crucial asset in communicating climate science to a diverse audience, and there is a wealth of software available to analyse and visualise climate information. However, this availability makes it easy to create poor maps as users often lack an underlying cartographic knowledge. Furthermore, communicating and visualising uncertainties in climate data and climate change projections, using for example ensemble based approaches, presents additional challenges for mapping that require careful consideration. This paper assesses a range of techniques for mapping uncertainties, comparing "intrinsic" approaches that use colour in much the same way as conventional thematic maps, and "extrinsic" approaches that incorporate additional geometry such as points or features. We proposes that, unlike traditional cartography, where many known standards allow maps to be interpreted easily, there is no standard mapping approach used to represent uncertainty (in climate or other information). Consequently, a wide range of techniques have been applied for this purpose, and users may spend unnecessary time trying to understand the mapping approach rather than interpreting the information presented. We use cartographic knowledge and lessons learned from mapping other information to propose a suitable mapping technique that represents both magnitude and uncertainty in climate data. This technique adjusts the hue of a small palette of colours to show the mean or median of a climate variable, and the saturation of the colour to illustrate a measure of uncertainty. It is designed to be easy to replicate, visible to colour blind people and intuitive to understand. This technique may be utilised to map a wide range of climate data, and it is proposed that it would provide a consistent approach suitable for mapping information for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5).

Description: A new version of the CNRM Chemistry-Climate Model, CNRM-CCM: description and improvements from the CCMVal-2 simulations Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 1129-1183, 2011 Author(s): M. Michou, D. Saint-Martin, H. Teyssèdre, A. Alias, F. Karcher, D. Olivié, A. Voldoire, B. Josse, V.-H. Peuch, H. Clark, J. N. Lee, and F. Chéroux This paper presents a new version of the Météo-France CNRM Chemistry-Climate Model, so-called CNRM-CCM. It includes some fundamental changes from the previous version (CNRM-ACM) which was extensively evaluated in the context of the CCMVal-2 validation activity. The most notable changes concern the radiative code of the GCM, and the inclusion of the detailed stratospheric chemistry of our Chemistry-Transport model MOCAGE on-line within the GCM. A 47-yr transient simulation (1960–2006) is the basis of our analysis. CNRM-CCM generates satisfactory dynamical and chemical fields in the stratosphere. Several shortcomings of CNRM-ACM simulations for CCMVal-2 that resulted from an erroneous representation of the impact of volcanic aerosols as well as from transport deficiencies have been eliminated. Remaining problems concern the upper stratosphere (5 to 1 hPa) where temperatures are too high, and where there are biases in the NO 2 , N 2 O 5 and O 3 mixing ratios. In contrast, temperatures at the tropical tropopause are too cold. These issues are addressed through the implementation of a more accurate radiation scheme at short wavelengths. Despite these problems we show that this new CNRM CCM is a useful tool to study chemistry-climate applications.

Description: Preface Results of the open session on "Documentation and monitoring of landslides and debris flows" for mathematical modelling and design of mitigation measures, held at the EGU General Assembly 2009 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1583-1588, 2011 Author(s): L. Franzi, D. Giordan, M. Arattano, P. Allasia, and M. Arai The papers that are here presented and summarised represent the recent scientific contributions of some authors coming from different countries and working in the fields of monitoring, modelling, mapping and design of mitigation measures against mass movements. The authors had the opportunity to present their recent advancements, discuss each other needs and set forth future research requirements during the 2009 EGU General Assembly, so that their scientific contributions can be considered the result of the debates and exchanges that were set among scientists and researchers, either personally or during the review phase since that date. In this resume, the scientific papers of the special issue are divided according to different thematic areas and summarised. The most innovative scientific approaches proposed in the special issue, regarding the monitoring methodologies, simulation techniques and laboratory equipment are described and summarised. The obtained results are very promising to keep on future research at a very satisfactory level.

Description: Lightning-based propagation of convective rain fields Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1571-1581, 2011 Author(s): S. Dietrich, D. Casella, F. Di Paola, M. Formenton, A. Mugnai, and P. Sanò This paper describes a new multi-sensor approach for continuously monitoring convective rain cells. It exploits lightning data from surface networks to propagate rain fields estimated from multi-frequency brightness temperature measurements taken by the AMSU/MHS microwave radiometers onboard NOAA/EUMETSAT low Earth orbiting operational satellites. Specifically, the method allows inferring the development (movement, morphology and intensity) of convective rain cells from the spatial and temporal distribution of lightning strokes following any observation by a satellite-borne microwave radiometer. Obviously, this is particularly attractive for real-time operational purposes, due to the sporadic nature of the low Earth orbiting satellite measurements and the continuous availability of ground-based lightning measurements – as is the case in most of the Mediterranean region. A preliminary assessment of the lightning-based rainfall propagation algorithm has been successfully made by using two pairs of consecutive AMSU observations, in conjunction with lightning measurements from the ZEUS network, for two convective events. Specifically, we show that the evolving rain fields, which are estimated by applying the algorithm to the satellite-based rainfall estimates for the first AMSU overpass, show an overall agreement with the satellite-based rainfall estimates for the second AMSU overpass.

Description: Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project: implementation strategy and mid-Pliocene Global climatology using GENESIS v3.0 GCM Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 2577-2603, 2011 Author(s): S. J. Koenig, R. M. DeConto, and D. Pollard The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3.29 to 2.97 Ma BP) has been identified as an analogue for the future, with the potential to help understand climate processes in a warmer than modern world. Sets of climate proxies, combined to provide boundary conditions for Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations of the mid-Pliocene, form the basis for the international, data-driven Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here, we outline the strategy for implementing pre-industrial (modern) and mid-Pliocene forcings and boundary conditions into the GENESIS version 3 GCM, as part of PlioMIP. We describe the prescription of greenhouse gas concentrations and orbital parameters and the implementation of geographic boundary conditions such as land-ice-sea distribution, topography, sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, vegetation, soils, and ice sheets. We further describe model-specific details including spin-up and integration times. In addition, the global climatology of the mid-Pliocene as simulated by the GENESIS v3 GCM is analyzed and compared to the pre-industrial control simulation. The simulated climate of the mid-Pliocene warm interval is found to differ considerably from pre-industrial. We identify model sensitivity to imposed forcings, and internal feedbacks that collectively affect both local and far-field responses. Our analysis points out the need to assess both the direct impacts of external forcings and the combined effects of indirect, internal feedbacks. This paper provides the basis for assessing model biases within the PlioMIP framework, and will be useful for comparisons with other studies of mid-Pliocene climates.

Description: Development of the high-order decoupled direct method in three dimensions for particulate matter: enabling advanced sensitivity analysis in air quality models Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 2605-2633, 2011 Author(s): W. Zhang, S. L. Capps, Y. Hu, A. Nenes, S. L. Napelenok, and A. G. Russell The high-order decoupled direct method in three dimensions for particular matter (HDDM-3D/PM) has been implemented in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to enable advanced sensitivity analysis. The major effort of this work is to develop high-order DDM sensitivity analysis of ISORROPIA, the inorganic aerosol module of CMAQ. A case-specific approach has been applied, and the sensitivities of activity coefficients and water content are explicitly computed. Stand-alone tests are performed for ISORROPIA by comparing the sensitivities (first- and second-order) computed by HDDM and the brute force (BF) approximations. Similar comparison has also been carried out for CMAQ results simulated using a week-long winter episode for a continental US domain. Second-order sensitivities of aerosol species (e.g., sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium) with respect to domain-wide SO 2 , NO x , and NH 3 emissions show agreement with BF results, yet exhibit less noise in locations where BF results are demonstrably inaccurate. Second-order sensitivity analysis elucidates nonlinear responses of secondary inorganic aerosols to their precursors and competing species that have not yet been well-understood with other approaches. Including second-order sensitivity coefficients in the Taylor series projection of the nitrate concentrations with a 50% reduction in domain-wide NO x emission shows a statistically significant improvement compared to the first-order Taylor series projection.

Description: Ionospheric anomaly due to seismic activities-III: correlation between night time VLF amplitude fluctuations and effective magnitudes of earthquakes in Indian sub-continent Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2699-2704, 2011 Author(s): S. Ray, S. K. Chakrabarti, S. K. Mondal, and S. Sasmal We present the results of an analysis of year-long (2007) monitoring of night time data of the VLF signal amplitude from the Indian Navy station VTX at 18.2 kHz, received by the Indian Centre for Space Physics, Kolkata. We analyzed this data to find out the correlation, if any, between night time amplitude fluctuation and seismic events. We found, analyzing individual cases (with magnitudes 〉5) as well as statistical analysis (of all the events with effective magnitudes greater than 3.5), that night time fluctuation of the signal amplitude has the highest probability to be beyond the 2σ level about three days prior to seismic events. Thus, the night time fluctuation could be considered as a precursor to enhanced seismic activities.

Description: The anomalous high temperatures of November 2010 over Greece: meteorological and climatological aspects Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2705-2714, 2011 Author(s): K. Tolika, I. Pytharoulis, and P. Maheras This paper presents an analysis of the exceptionally high maximum ( T max ) and minimum ( T min ) temperatures which occurred during November 2010 and affected the entire Greek region. This severe "warm cold-season spell" was unusual because of its prolonged duration and intensity for the entire month and particularly the maximum temperature anomalies, which in comparison with the 1958–2000 climatological average, exceeded 5 °C at several stations. Comparing the observed record with future projections from three regional climate models revealed that T max and T min , on several days in November 2010, exceeded the 90th percentile of the simulated data. An examination of the atmospheric – synoptic conditions during this period showed that the anomalous high temperatures could probably be related to the negative phase of the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMP), with an intense pole of negative anomalies located over the British Isles, and to the east, a second pole of positive anomalies, centred over the Caspian Sea. Finally, an attempt is made to further investigate the mechanisms responsible for this phenomenon, for example, the thermal forcing in the tropics (Niño 3 or Niño 3.4).

Description: A nested-grid Boussinesq-type approach to modelling dispersive propagation and runup of landslide-generated tsunamis Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2677-2697, 2011 Author(s): H. Zhou, C. W. Moore, Y. Wei, and V. V. Titov A tsunami generated by large-volume landslide can propagate across the ocean and flood communities around the basin. The evolution of landslide-generated tsunamis is affected by the effects of frequency dispersion and involves processes of different temporal and spacial scales. In this paper, we develop a numerical approach employing the weakly nonlinear and fully nonlinear Boussinesq-type theories and nested computational grids. The propagation in a large domain is simulated with the weakly nonlinear model in a geographical reference frame. The nearshore wave evolution and runup are computed with the fully nonlinear model. Nested grids are employed to zoom simulations from larger to smaller domains at successively increasing resolutions. The models and the nesting scheme are validated for theoretical analysis, laboratory experiments and a historical tsunami event. By applying this approach, we also investigate the potential tsunami impact on the US east coast due to the possible landslide on La Palma Island. The scenario employed in this study represents an event of extremely low probability.

Description: Metamorphic history and geodynamic significance of the Early Cretaceous Sabzevar granulites (Sabzevar structural zone, NE Iran) Solid Earth, 2, 219-243, 2011 Author(s): M. Nasrabady, F. Rossetti, T. Theye, and G. Vignaroli The Iranian ophiolites are part of the vast orogenic suture zones that mark the Alpine-Himalayan convergence zone. Few petrological and geochronological data are available from these ophiolitic domains, hampering a full assessment of the timing and regimes of subduction zone metamorphism and orogenic construction in the region. This paper describes texture, geochemistry, and the pressure-temperature path of the Early Cretaceous mafic granulites that occur within the Tertiary Sabzevar ophiolitic suture zone of NE Iran. Whole rock geochemistry indicates that the Sabzevar granulites are likely derived from a MORB-type precursor. They are thus considered as remnants of a dismembered dynamo-thermal sole formed during subduction of a back-arc basin (proto-Sabzevar Ocean) formed in the upper-plate of the Neotethyan slab. The metamorphic history of the granulites suggests an anticlockwise pressure-temperature loop compatible with burial in a hot subduction zone, followed by cooling during exhumation. Transition from a nascent to a mature stage of oceanic subduction is the geodynamic scenario proposed to accomplish for the reconstructed thermobaric evolution. When framed with the regional scenario, results of this study point to diachronous and independent tectonic evolutions of the different ophiolitic domains of central Iran, for which a growing disparity in the timing of metamorphic equilibration and of pressure-temperature paths can be expected to emerge with further investigations.

Description: Volcanic hazard assessment for the Canary Islands (Spain) using extreme value theory Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2741-2753, 2011 Author(s): R. Sobradelo, J. Martí, A. T. Mendoza-Rosas, and G. Gómez The Canary Islands are an active volcanic region densely populated and visited by several millions of tourists every year. Nearly twenty eruptions have been reported through written chronicles in the last 600 yr, suggesting that the probability of a new eruption in the near future is far from zero. This shows the importance of assessing and monitoring the volcanic hazard of the region in order to reduce and manage its potential volcanic risk, and ultimately contribute to the design of appropriate preparedness plans. Hence, the probabilistic analysis of the volcanic eruption time series for the Canary Islands is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk in the area. Such a series describes complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. Here we propose a statistical method for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions which is most appropriate given the nature of the documented historical eruptive data. We first characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes, and then carry out a preliminary analysis of the data to establish the requirements for the statistical method. Past studies in eruptive time series used conventional statistics and treated the series as an homogeneous process. In this paper, we will use a method that accounts for the time-dependence of the series and includes rare or extreme events, in the form of few data of large eruptions, since these data require special methods of analysis. Hence, we will use a statistical method from extreme value theory. In particular, we will apply a non-homogeneous Poisson process to the historical eruptive data of the Canary Islands to estimate the probability of having at least one volcanic event of a magnitude greater than one in the upcoming years. This is done in three steps: First, we analyze the historical eruptive series to assess independence and homogeneity of the process. Second, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Third, we analyze the non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as the intensity function.

Description: Proposal of a Spatial Decision Support System architecture to estimate the consequences and costs of small meteorites impacts Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3013-3021, 2011 Author(s): E. Garbolino and P. Michel On a frequency, depending on their size, small celestial bodies enter into the Earth atmosphere and collide with our planet. On a daily basis, the size is likely to be about 20 cm, while for monthly events the largest it may be is about 1 m. The last significant witnessed event occurred in 1908 in the Siberian area of the Tunguska. The forest was devastated over an area of 2000 km 2 . According to recent estimates, this kind of event could occur with a frequency of one per hundred to thousand years. Since the last century, the demography and the urbanisation have significantly increased. Although the probability that such an event occurs over a populated area remains small, if this happened, it could cause significant damages (industrial, shopping centres, recreational places, etc.). From the analysis of the data on meteorites that have impacted the Earth, of the orbital and size properties of small threatening bodies as well as their potential impact outcome, this paper proposes a methodology to estimate the damage resulting from the impact of objects of given sizes. The considered sizes are up to the maximum threshold for local damages (less than a hundred metres in diameter) on some given territory. This approach is based on an initial definition phase of collision scenarios. Then, a second phase consisting of the accurate modelling of the territory, taking into account the land-use, the spatial distribution of the populations and goods, and the characterisation of the biophysical vulnerability of the stakes using thresholds of dangerous phenomena (overpressures). The third phase is related to the impact simulation on the territory, the estimation of the stakes potentially exposed and the costs of the destruction. The aim of this paper is to make a demonstration of principle, using as a study case the city of Nice that benefits from a complete database of infrastructures.

Description: Corrigendum to "Tornadoes and waterspouts in Catalonia (1950–2009)", published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1875–1883, 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3023-3023, 2011 Author(s): M. Gayà, M.-C. Llasat, and J. Arús No abstract available.

Description: Evaluating sources of uncertainty in modelling the impact of probabilistic climate change on sub-arctic palsa mires Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2981-2995, 2011 Author(s): S. Fronzek, T. R. Carter, and M. Luoto We present an analysis of different sources of impact model uncertainty and combine this with probabilistic projections of climate change. Climatic envelope models describing the spatial distribution of palsa mires (mire complexes with permafrost peat hummocks) in northern Fennoscandia were calibrated for three baseline periods, eight state-of-the-art modelling techniques and 25 versions sampling the parameter uncertainty of each technique – a total of 600 models. The sensitivity of these models to changes in temperature and precipitation was analysed to construct impact response surfaces. These were used to assess the behaviour of models when extrapolated into changed climate conditions, so that new criteria, in addition to conventional model evaluation statistics, could be defined for determining model reliability. Impact response surfaces were also combined with climate change projections to estimate the risk of areas suitable for palsas disappearing during the 21st century. Structural differences in impact models appeared to be a major source of uncertainty, with 60% of the models giving implausible projections. Generalized additive modelling (GAM) was judged to be the most reliable technique for model extrapolation. Using GAM, it was estimated as very likely (〉90% probability) that the area suitable for palsas is reduced to less than half the baseline area by the period 2030–2049 and as likely (〉66% probability) that the entire area becomes unsuitable by 2080–2099 (A1B emission scenario). The risk of total loss of palsa area was reduced for a mitigation scenario under which global warming was constrained to below 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate, although it too implied a considerable reduction in area suitable for palsas.

Description: A geotechnical and GIS based method for evaluating risk exposition along coastal cliff environments: a case study of the chalk cliffs of southern England Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 2997-3011, 2011 Author(s): A. Stavrou, J. A. Lawrence, R. N. Mortimore, and W. Murphy The present work has established a methodology that allows the user to determine areas susceptible to shoreline recession and cliff instability. This methodology includes the development of a qualitative loss estimation system which utilizes geotechnical field mapping observations and shoreline retreat predictions to estimate the exposition of critical infrastructure to hazards posed by cliff collapse and retreat. The technique identifies hazardous areas along coastal cliff environments. The assessment was undertaken along the cliff section between Brighton Marina and Portobello, East Sussex, UK. The cliff line was divided into 22 sections according to the cliff's geology. Each of these sections was mapped and described with respect to the lithology and possible failures that could occur. Historical shoreline recession analysis was used for the prediction of future shoreline positions. The prediction of future shorelines was performed by using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System, extension of ESRI's ArcView 9.x. The analysis was based on historical maps and aerial photographs dating from 1873 to 2005. The long term average cliff recession rates clearly show that cliff retreat has declined through time due to the presence of coast protection and cliff stability measures. Although these measures have delayed cliff recession to a great extent, they have not eliminated it.

Description: Using online databases for landslide susceptibility assessment: an example from the Veneto Region (northeastern Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1915-1925, 2011 Author(s): M. Floris, M. Iafelice, C. Squarzoni, L. Zorzi, A. De Agostini, and R. Genevois In this paper, spatial data available in the Italian portals was used to evaluate the landslide susceptibility of the Euganean Hills Regional Park, located SW of Padua (northeastern Italy). Quality, applicability and possible analysis scales of the online data were investigated. After a brief overview on the WebGIS portals around the world, their contents and tools for natural risk analyses, a susceptibility analysis of the study area was carried out using a simple probabilistic approach that compared landslide distribution and influencing factors. The input factors used in the analysis depended on available data and included landslides, morphometric data (elevation, slope, curvature, profile and plan Curvature) and non-morphometric data (land use, distance to roads and distance to rivers). Great attention was paid to the pre-processing step, in particular the re-classification of continuous data that was performed following objective, geologic and geomorphologic criteria. The results of the study show that the simple probabilistic approach used for the susceptibility evaluation showed quite good accuracy and precision (repeatability). However, heuristic, statistical or deterministic methods could be applied to the online data to improve the prediction. The data available online for the Italian territory allows susceptibility assessment at medium and large scales. Morphometric factors, such as elevation and slope angle, are important because they implicitly include information that is not available, such as lithologic and structural data. The main drawback of the Italian online databases is the lack of information on the frequency of landslides; thus, a complete hazard analysis is not possible. Despite the good results achieved to date, collection and sharing of data on natural risks must be improved in Italy and around the world. The creation of spatial data infrastructure and more WebGIS portals is desirable.

Description: Towards a real-time susceptibility assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides on a regional scale Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1927-1947, 2011 Author(s): L. Montrasio, R. Valentino, and G. L. Losi In the framework of landslide risk management, it appears relevant to assess, both in space and in time, the triggering of rainfall-induced shallow landslides, in order to prevent damages due to these kind of disasters. In this context, the use of real-time landslide early warning systems has been attracting more and more attention from the scientific community. This paper deals with the application, on a regional scale, of two physically-based stability models: SLIP (Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction) and TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability analysis). A back analysis of some recent case-histories of soil slips which occurred in the territory of the central Emilian Apennine, Emilia Romagna Region (Northern Italy) is carried out and the main results are shown. The study area is described from geological and climatic viewpoints. The acquisition of geospatial information regarding the topography, the soil properties and the local landslide inventory is also explained. The paper outlines the main features of the SLIP model and the basic assumptions of TRIGRS. Particular attention is devoted to the discussion of the input data, which have been stored and managed through a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. Results of the SLIP model on a regional scale, over a one year time interval, are finally presented. The results predicted by the SLIP model are analysed both in terms of safety factor ( F s ) maps, corresponding to particular rainfall events, and in terms of time-varying percentage of unstable areas over the considered time interval. The paper compares observed landslide localizations with those predicted by the SLIP model. A further quantitative comparison between SLIP and TRIGRS, both applied to the most important event occurred during the analysed period, is presented. The limits of the SLIP model, mainly due to some restrictions of simplifying the physically based relationships, are analysed in detail. Although an improvement, in terms of spatial accuracy, is needed, thanks to the fast calculation and the satisfactory temporal prediction of landslides, the SLIP model applied on the study area shows certain potential as a landslides forecasting tool on a regional scale.

Description: Fluoride in ash leachates: environmental implications at Popocatépetl volcano, central Mexico Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 1949-1956, 2011 Author(s): M. A. Armienta, S. De la Cruz-Reyna, O. Cruz, N. Ceniceros, A. Aguayo, and M. Marin Ash emitted by volcanic eruptions, even of moderate magnitude, may affect the environment and the health of humans and animals through different mechanisms at distances significantly larger than those indicated in the volcanic hazard maps. One such mechanism is the high capacity of ash to transport toxic volatiles like fluoride, as soluble condensates on the particles' surface. The mobilization and hazards related to volcanic fluoride are discussed based on the data obtained during the recent activity of Popocatépetl volcano in Central Mexico.

Description: Pliocene Ice Sheet Modelling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP) – experimental design Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 2661-2686, 2011 Author(s): A. M. Dolan, S. J. Koenig, D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, and R. M. DeConto During the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3.264 to 3.025 million yr ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the next century and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were slightly higher. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mid-Pliocene Warm Period provides a unique testing ground to investigate the stability of the Earth's ice sheets and their contribution to sea level in a warmer-than-modern world. Climate models and ice sheet models can be used to enhance our understanding of ice sheet stability, however, uncertainties associated with different ice-sheet modelling frameworks/approaches mean that a rigorous comparison of numerical ice sheet model simulations for the Pliocene is essential. As an extension to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP; Haywood et al., 2010, 2011a), the Pliocene Ice Sheet Modelling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP) will address these uncertainties. Here we outline the PLISMIP experimental design and initialisation conditions that have been adopted to simulate the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under present day and warm mid-Pliocene conditions. Not only will this project provide a new benchmark in the simulation of ice sheets in a past warm period, but the analysis of model sensitivity to various uncertainties could directly inform future predictions of ice sheet and sea level change.

Description: A web service based tool to plan atmospheric research flights Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 2123-2163, 2011 Author(s): M. Rautenhaus, G. Bauer, and A. Dörnbrack We present a web service based tool for the planning of atmospheric research flights. The tool provides online access to horizontal maps and vertical cross-sections of numerical weather prediction data and in particular allows the interactive design of a flight route in direct relation to the predictions. It thereby fills a crucial gap in the set of currently available tools for using data from numerical atmospheric models for research flight planning. A distinct feature of the tool is its lightweight, web service based architecture, requiring only commodity hardware and a basic Internet connection for deployment. Access to visualisations of prediction data is achieved by using an extended version of the Open Geospatial Consortium Web Map Service (WMS) standard, a technology that has gained increased attention in meteorology in recent years. With the WMS approach, we avoid the transfer of large forecast model output datasets while enabling on-demand generated visualisations of the predictions at campaign sites with limited Internet bandwidth. Usage of the Web Map Service standard also enables access to third-party sources of georeferenced data. We have implemented the software using the open-source programming language Python. In the present article, we describe the architecture of the tool. As an example application, we discuss a case study research flight planned for the scenario of the 2010 Eyjafjalla volcano eruption. Usage and implementation details are provided as Supplement.

Description: Electric field and infrared radiation in the troposphere before earthquakes Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3125-3133, 2011 Author(s): V. A. Liperovsky, C.-V. Meister, V. V. Mikhailin, V. V. Bogdanov, P. M. Umarkhodgaev, and E. V. Liperovskaya Some years ago, a model of the generation of local electric fields in the atmosphere a few days before earthquakes and up to a few days after the seismic shock was proposed. In the model, the generation of the electric fields occurs because of an increased ionisation intensity of the atmosphere in the presence of aerosols. The generation of the electric field is the result of the fact that the larger aerosols, which are mainly negatively charged, have a larger velocity of gravitational precipitation than the smaller, which are mainly positively charged aerosols. The ionisation in such atmospheric regions is caused by radon, the concentration of which increases in earthquake preparation regions. The formation of mosaic-likely distributed areas of electric fields with intensities of 3 × 10 2 – 10 5 Vm −1 and, on the other hand, large areas with increased electrical conductivity cause a series of physical effects, e.g. the occurrence of infrared emissions with a specific spectrum, which may be studied using earth-based, atmospheric and satellite observations. In the present paper, the model of the generation of local electric fields is further developed, improving the description of the force balance on the aerosols in the atmosphere. A recently proposed laboratory experiment is briefly discussed, which is carried out to prove the theoretically predicted intensification of infrared emissions some hours-days before earthquakes. Besides the experiment described, it will be operated on Kamchatka in the near future to scan mosaic-likely distributed regions of electric fields in the atmosphere during earthquake preparation times.

Description: Examination of three practical run-up models for assessing tsunami impact on highly populated areas Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3107-3123, 2011 Author(s): A. Muhari, F. Imamura, S. Koshimura, and J. Post This paper describes the examination of three practical tsunami run-up models that can be used to assess the tsunami impact on human beings in densely populated areas. The first of the examined models applies a uniform bottom roughness coefficient throughout the study area. The second uses a very detailed topographic data set that includes the building height information integrated on a Digital Elevation Model (DEM); and the third model utilizes different bottom roughness coefficients, depending on the type of land use and on the percentage of building occupancy on each grid cell. These models were compared with each other by taking the one with the most detailed topographic data (which is the second) as reference. The analysis was performed with the aim of identifying how specific features of high resolution topographic data can influence the tsunami run-up characteristics. Further, we promote a method to be used when very detailed topographic data is unavailable and discuss the related limitations. To this purpose we demonstrate that the effect of buildings on the tsunami flow can be well modeled by using an equivalent roughness coefficient if the topographic data has no information of building height. The results from the models have been utilized to quantify the tsunami impact by using the tsunami casualty algorithm. The models have been applied in Padang city, Indonesia, which is one of the areas with the highest potential of tsunami risk in the world.

Description: Assessment of Arias Intensity of historical earthquakes using modified Mercalli intensities and artificial neural networks Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3097-3105, 2011 Author(s): G-A. Tselentis This paper presents the development of a non-parametric forecast model based on artificial neural networks for the direct assessment of Arias Intensity corresponding to a historic earthquake using seismic intensity data. The neural models allow complex and nonlinear behaviour to be tracked. Application of this methodology on earthquakes with known instrumental data from Greece, showed that the artificial neural network forecast model have excellent data synthesis capability.

Description: Comments on the generation mechanism of Seismic Electric Signals Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3093-3096, 2011 Author(s): E. Dologlou Recent laboratory measurements on rocks under varying pressure lead to results which strengthen a model suggested by the author for the explanation of the power law relation that interconnects the lead time of Seismic Electric Signals and earthquake stress drop. In addition, recent applications of a thermodynamic model that interrelates the defect parameters in materials of geophysical interest and their bulk properties open a new window to further advance the aforementioned explanation.

Description: OntoFire: an ontology-based geo-portal for wildfires Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3157-3170, 2011 Author(s): K. Kalabokidis, N. Athanasis, and M. Vaitis With the proliferation of the geospatial technologies on the Internet, the role of geo-portals (i.e. gateways to Spatial Data Infrastructures) in the area of wildfires management emerges. However, keyword-based techniques often frustrate users when looking for data of interest in geo-portal environments, while little attention has been paid to shift from the conventional keyword-based to navigation-based mechanisms. The presented OntoFire system is an ontology-based geo-portal about wildfires. Through the proposed navigation mechanisms, the relationships between the data can be discovered, which would otherwise not be possible when using conventional querying techniques alone. End users can use the browsing interface to find resources of interest by using the navigation mechanisms provided. Data providers can use the publishing interface to submit new metadata, modify metadata or removing metadata in/from the catalogue. The proposed approach can improve the discovery of valuable information that is necessary to set priorities for disaster mitigation and prevention strategies. OntoFire aspires to be a focal point of integration and management of a very large amount of information, contributing in this way to the dissemination of knowledge and to the preparedness of the operational stakeholders.

Description: Anomalous pre-seismic behavior of the electromagnetic normalized functions related to the intermediate depth earthquakes occurred in Vrancea zone, Romania Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3151-3156, 2011 Author(s): D. Stanica and D. A. Stanica In this paper the electromagnetic normalized functions (ENF), carried out in ULF band, have been analyzed in correlation with intermediate depth seismic events occurring in Vrancea zone. To confirm the relationship between anomalous, pre-seismic behavior and an imminent earthquake, a methodology based on the temporal invariability criterion of ENF for a 2-D structure, in non-geodynamic conditions, has been used. The electromagnetic data were collected at the Geodynamic Observatory Provita de Sus (GOPS), placed on the Carpathian electrical conductivity anomaly where the epicentral distance is about 100 km, and the National Geophysical Observatory Surlari (NGOS) taken as a reference and located 140 km from the Vrancea zone. The daily mean distributions of the ENF over a span of several months in 2009, carried out at GOPS, exhibit significant enhancements from the normal trend before all the earthquakes with magnitudes higher than 4. Two correlations between the magnitudes of seismic events and Bzn have to be highlighted: (i) an earthquake of M ≥ 4 is expected to occur when Bzn ≥ 1.846; (ii) meanwhile, the anomalous behaviour of Bzn ≥ 1.851 may be use as pre- seismic value for an earthquake of M ≥ 5. The lead time is closed on 7–15 days before earthquakes occurrence.

Description: Impact of ASAR soil moisture data on the MM5 precipitation forecast for the Tanaro flood event of April 2009 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11, 3135-3149, 2011 Author(s): G. Panegrossi, R. Ferretti, L. Pulvirenti, and N. Pierdicca The representation of land-atmosphere interactions in weather forecast models has a strong impact on the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and, in turn, on the forecast. Soil moisture is one of the key variables in land surface modelling, and an inadequate initial soil moisture field can introduce major biases in the surface heat and moisture fluxes and have a long-lasting effect on the model behaviour. Detecting the variability of soil characteristics at small scales is particularly important in mesoscale models because of the continued increase of their spatial resolution. In this paper, the high resolution soil moisture field derived from ENVISAT/ASAR observations is used to derive the soil moisture initial condition for the MM5 simulation of the Tanaro flood event of April 2009. The ASAR-derived soil moisture field shows significantly drier conditions compared to the ECMWF analysis. The impact of soil moisture on the forecast has been evaluated in terms of predicted precipitation and rain gauge data available for this event have been used as ground truth. The use of the drier, highly resolved soil moisture content (SMC) shows a significant impact on the precipitation forecast, particularly evident during the early phase of the event. The timing of the onset of the precipitation, as well as the intensity of rainfall and the location of rain/no rain areas, are better predicted. The overall accuracy of the forecast using ASAR SMC data is significantly increased during the first 30 h of simulation. The impact of initial SMC on the precipitation has been related to the change in the water vapour field in the PBL prior to the onset of the precipitation, due to surface evaporation. This study represents a first attempt to establish whether high resolution SAR-based SMC data might be useful for operational use, in anticipation of the launch of the Sentinel-1 satellite.

Description: The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 2: Response to external forcings Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4, 3363-3435, 2011 Author(s): S. J. Phipps, L. D. Rotstayn, H. B. Gordon, J. L. Roberts, A. C. Hirst, and W. F. Budd The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model is a coupled general circulation model, designed primarily for millennial-scale climate simulation and palaeoclimate research. Mk3L includes components which describe the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface, and combines computational efficiency with a stable and realistic control climatology. It is freely available to the research community. This paper evaluates the response of the model to external forcings which correspond to past and future changes in the climate system. A simulation of the mid-Holocene climate is performed, in which changes in the seasonal and meridional distribution of incoming solar radiation are imposed. Mk3L correctly simulates increased summer temperatures at northern mid-latitudes and cooling in the tropics. However, it is unable to capture some of the regional-scale features of the mid-Holocene climate, with the precipitation over Northern Africa being deficient. The model simulates a reduction of between 7 and 15% in the amplitude of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a smaller decrease than that implied by the palaeoclimate record. However, the realism of the simulated ENSO is limited by the model's relatively coarse spatial resolution. Transient simulations of the late Holocene climate are then performed. The evolving distribution of insolation is imposed, and an acceleration technique is applied and assessed. The model successfully captures the temperature changes in each hemisphere and the upward trend in ENSO variability. However, the lack of a dynamic vegetation scheme does not allow it to simulate an abrupt desertification of the Sahara. To assess the response of Mk3L to other forcings, transient simulations of the last millennium are performed. Changes in solar irradiance, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and volcanic emissions are applied to the model. The model is again broadly successful at simulating larger-scale changes in the climate system. Both the magnitude and the spatial pattern of the simulated 20th century warming are consistent with observations. However, the model underestimates the magnitude of the relative warmth associated with the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly. Finally, three transient simulations are performed, in which the atmospheric CO 2 concentration is stabilised at two, three and four times the pre-industrial value. All three simulations exhibit ongoing surface warming, reduced sea ice cover, and a reduction in the rate of North Atlantic Deep Water formation followed by its gradual recovery. Antarctic Bottom Water formation ceases, with the shutdown being permanent for a trebling and quadrupling of the CO 2 concentration. The transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities of the model are determined. The short-term transient response to a doubling of the CO 2 concentration at 1% per year is a warming of 1.5 K, while the long-term equilibrium response is a warming of at least 3.9 K.

Description: Remobilization of silicic intrusion by mafic magmas during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption Solid Earth, 2, 271-281, 2011 Author(s): O. Sigmarsson, I. Vlastelic, R. Andreasen, I. Bindeman, J.-L. Devidal, S. Moune, J. K. Keiding, G. Larsen, A. Höskuldsson, and Th. Thordarson Injection of basaltic magmas into silicic crustal holding chambers and subsequent magma mingling or mixing is a process that has been recognised since the late seventies as resulting in explosive eruptions. Detailed reconstruction and assessment of the mixing process caused by such intrusion is now possible because of the exceptional time-sequence sample suite available from the tephra fallout of the 2010 summit eruption at Eyjafjallajökull volcano in South Iceland. Fallout from 14 to 19 April contains three glass types of basaltic, intermediate, and silicic compositions recording rapid magma mingling without homogenisation, involving evolved FeTi-basalt and silicic melt with composition identical to that produced by the 1821–1823 AD Eyjafjallajökull summit eruption. The time-dependent change in the magma composition suggests a binary mixing process with changing end-member compositions and proportions. Beginning of May, a new injection of primitive basalt was recorded by deep seismicity, appearance of Mg-rich olivine phenocrysts together with high sulphur dioxide output and presence of sulphide crystals. Thus, the composition of the basaltic injection became more magnesian and hotter with time provoking changes in the silicic mixing end-member from pre-existing melt to the solid carapace of the magma chamber. Finally, decreasing proportions of the mafic end-member with time in the erupted mixed-magma demonstrate that injections of Mg-rich basalt was the motor of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull explosive eruption, and that its decreasing inflow terminated the eruption. Significant quantity of silicic magma is thus still present in the interior of the volcano. Our results show that detailed sampling during the entire eruption was essential for deciphering the complex magmatic processes at play, i.e. the dynamics of the magma mingling and mixing. Finally, the rapid compositional changes in the eruptive products suggest that magma mingling occurs on a timescale of a few hours to days whereas the interval between the first detected magma injection and eruption was several months.

Description: Intercomparison of two meteorological limited area models for quantitative precipitation forecast verification Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 591-606, 2012 Author(s): E. Oberto, M. Milelli, F. Pasi, and B. Gozzini The demand for verification of numerical models is still very high, especially for what concerns the operational Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) used, among others, for evaluating the issuing of warnings to the population. In this study, a comparative verification of the QPF, predicted by two operational Limited Area Models (LAMs) for the Italian territory is presented: COSMO-I7 (developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and WRF-NMM (developed at NOAA-NCEP). The observational dataset is the precipitation recorded by the high-resolution non-GTS rain gauges network of the National Civil Protection Department (NCPD) over two years (2007–2008). Observed and forecasted precipitation have been treated as areal quantity (areal average of the values accumulated in 6 and 24 h periods) over the 102 "warning areas", defined by the NCPD both for administrative and hydrological purposes. Statistics are presented through a series of conventional indices (BIAS, POD and POFD) and, in addition, the Extreme Dependency Score (EDS) and the Base Rate (BS or 1-BS) have been used for keeping into account the vanishing of the indices as the events become rare. Results for long-period verification (the whole 2 yr) with increasing thresholds, seasonal trend (3 months period), diurnal error cycle and error maps, are presented. Results indicate that WRF has a general tendency of QPF overestimation for low thresholds and underestimation for higher ones, while COSMO-I7 tends to overestimate for all thresholds. Both models show a seasonal trend, with a bigger overestimation during summer and spring, while during autumn and winter the models tend to be more accurate.

Description: Pore formation during dehydration of a polycrystalline gypsum sample observed and quantified in a time-series synchrotron X-ray micro-tomography experiment Solid Earth, 3, 71-86, 2012 Author(s): F. Fusseis, C. Schrank, J. Liu, A. Karrech, S. Llana-Fúnez, X. Xiao, and K. Regenauer-Lieb We conducted an in-situ X-ray micro-computed tomography heating experiment at the Advanced Photon Source (USA) to dehydrate an unconfined 2.3 mm diameter cylinder of Volterra Gypsum. We used a purpose-built X-ray transparent furnace to heat the sample to 388 K for a total of 310 min to acquire a three-dimensional time-series tomography dataset comprising nine time steps. The voxel size of 2.2 μm 3 proved sufficient to pinpoint reaction initiation and the organization of drainage architecture in space and time. We observed that dehydration commences across a narrow front, which propagates from the margins to the centre of the sample in more than four hours. The advance of this front can be fitted with a square-root function, implying that the initiation of the reaction in the sample can be described as a diffusion process. Novel parallelized computer codes allow quantifying the geometry of the porosity and the drainage architecture from the very large tomographic datasets (2048 3 voxels) in unprecedented detail. We determined position, volume, shape and orientation of each resolvable pore and tracked these properties over the duration of the experiment. We found that the pore-size distribution follows a power law. Pores tend to be anisotropic but rarely crack-shaped and have a preferred orientation, likely controlled by a pre-existing fabric in the sample. With on-going dehydration, pores coalesce into a single interconnected pore cluster that is connected to the surface of the sample cylinder and provides an effective drainage pathway. Our observations can be summarized in a model in which gypsum is stabilized by thermal expansion stresses and locally increased pore fluid pressures until the dehydration front approaches to within about 100 μm. Then, the internal stresses are released and dehydration happens efficiently, resulting in new pore space. Pressure release, the production of pores and the advance of the front are coupled in a feedback loop.

Description: The Nexus Land-Use model version 1.0, an approach articulating biophysical potentials and economic dynamics to model competition for land-use Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 571-638, 2012 Author(s): F. Souty, T. Brunelle, P. Dumas, B. Dorin, P. Ciais, R. Crassous, C. Müller, and A. Bondeau Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms. The Nexus Land-Use model equations combine biophysics and economics into a single coherent framework to calculate crop yields, food prices, and resulting pasture and cropland areas within 12 regions inter-connected with each other by international trade. The representation of cropland and livestock production systems in each region relies on three components: (i) a biomass production function derived from the crop yield response function to inputs such as industrial fertilisers; (ii) a detailed representation of the livestock production system subdivided into an intensive and an extensive component, and (iii) a spatially explicit distribution of potential (maximal) crop yields prescribed from the Lund-Postdam-Jena global vegetation model for managed Land (LPJmL). The economic principles governing decisions about land-use and intensification are adapted from the Ricardian rent theory, assuming cost minimisation for farmers. The land-use modelling approach described in this paper entails several advantages. Firstly, it makes it possible to explore interactions among different types of biomass demand for food and animal feed, in a consistent approach, including indirect effects on land-use change resulting from international trade. Secondly, yield variations induced by the possible expansion of croplands on less suitable marginal lands are modelled by using regional land area distributions of potential yields, and a calculated boundary between intensive and extensive production. The model equations and parameter values are first described in details. Then, idealised scenarios exploring the impact of forest preservation policies or rising energy price on agricultural intensification are described, and their impacts on pasture and cropland areas are investigated.

Description: The regulation of the air: a hypothesis Solid Earth, 3, 87-96, 2012 Author(s): E. G. Nisbet, C. M. R. Fowler, and R. E. R. Nisbet We propose the hypothesis that natural selection, acting on the specificity or preference for CO 2 over O 2 of the enzyme rubisco (ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase), has controlled the CO 2 :O 2 ratio of the atmosphere since the evolution of photosynthesis and has also sustained the Earth's greenhouse-set surface temperature. Rubisco works in partnership with the nitrogen-fixing enzyme nitrogenase to control atmospheric pressure. Together, these two enzymes control global surface temperature and indirectly the pH and oxygenation of the ocean. Thus, the co-evolution of these two enzymes may have produced clement conditions on the Earth's surface, allowing life to be sustained.

Description: Modelling sub-grid wetland in the ORCHIDEE global land surface model: evaluation against river discharges and remotely sensed data Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 683-735, 2012 Author(s): B. Ringeval, B. Decharme, S. L. Piao, P. Ciais, F. Papa, N. de Noblet-Ducoudré, C. Prigent, P. Friedlingstein, I. Gouttevin, C. Koven, and A. Ducharne The quality of the global hydrological simulations performed by Land Surface Models (LSMs) strongly depends on processes that occur at unresolved spatial scales. Approaches such as TOPMODEL have been developed, which allow soil moisture redistribution within each grid-cell, based upon sub-grid scale topography. Moreover, the coupling between TOPMODEL and a LSM appears as a potential way to simulate wetland extent dynamic and its sensitivity to climate, a recently identified research problem for biogeochemical modelling, including methane emissions. Global evaluation of the coupling between TOPMODEL and an LSM is difficult, and prior attempts have been indirect, based on the evaluation of the simulated river flow. This study presents a new way to evaluate this coupling, within the ORCHIDEE LSM, using remote sensing data of inundated areas. Because of differences in nature between the satellite derived information – inundation extent – and the variable diagnosed by TOPMODEL/ORCHIDEE – area at maximum soil water content –, the evaluation focuses on the spatial distribution of these two quantities as well as on their temporal variation. Despite some difficulties in exactly matching observed localized inundated events, we obtain a rather good agreement in the distribution of these two quantities at a global scale. Floodplains are not accounted for in the model, and this is a major limitation. The difficulty of reproducing the year-to-year variability of the observed inundated area (for instance, the decreasing trend by the end of 90s) is also underlined. Classical indirect evaluation based on comparison between simulated and observed riverflow is also performed and underlines difficulties to simulate riverflow after coupling with TOPMODEL. The relationship between inundation and river flow at the basin scale in the model is analyzed, using both methods (evaluation against remote sensing data and riverflow). Finally, we discuss the potential of the TOPMODEL/LSM coupling to simulate wetland areas. A major limitation of the coupling for this purpose is linked to its ability to simulate a global wetland coverage consistent with the commonly used datasets. However, it seems to be a good opportunity to account for the wetland areas sensitivity to the climate and thus to simulate its temporal variability.

Description: Rockfall hazard and risk assessments along roads at a regional scale: example in Swiss Alps Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 615-629, 2012 Author(s): C. Michoud, M.-H. Derron, P. Horton, M. Jaboyedoff, F.-J. Baillifard, A. Loye, P. Nicolet, A. Pedrazzini, and A. Queyrel Unlike fragmental rockfall runout assessments, there are only few robust methods to quantify rock-mass-failure susceptibilities at regional scale. A detailed slope angle analysis of recent Digital Elevation Models (DEM) can be used to detect potential rockfall source areas, thanks to the Slope Angle Distribution procedure. However, this method does not provide any information on block-release frequencies inside identified areas. The present paper adds to the Slope Angle Distribution of cliffs unit its normalized cumulative distribution function. This improvement is assimilated to a quantitative weighting of slope angles, introducing rock-mass-failure susceptibilities inside rockfall source areas previously detected. Then rockfall runout assessment is performed using the GIS- and process-based software Flow-R, providing relative frequencies for runout. Thus, taking into consideration both susceptibility results, this approach can be used to establish, after calibration, hazard and risk maps at regional scale. As an example, a risk analysis of vehicle traffic exposed to rockfalls is performed along the main roads of the Swiss alpine valley of Bagnes.

Description: Evolution of skewness and kurtosis of weakly nonlinear unidirectional waves over a sloping bottom Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 631-638, 2012 Author(s): H. Zeng and K. Trulsen We consider the effect of slowly varying depth on the values of skewness and kurtosis of weakly nonlinear irregular waves propagating from deeper to shallower water. It is known that the equilibrium value of kurtosis decreases with decreasing depth for waves propagating on constant depth. Waves propagating over a sloping bottom must continually adjust toward a new equilibrium state. We demonstrate that weakly nonlinear waves may need a considerable horizontal propagation distance in order to adjust to a new shallower environment, therefore the kurtosis can be notably different from the equilibrium value for each corresponding depth both on top of and beyond a bottom slope. A change of depth can provoke a wake-like spatially non-uniform distribution of kurtosis on the lee side of the slope. As an application, we anticipate that the probability of freak waves on or near the edge of the continental shelf may exhibit a rather complicated spatial structure for wave fields entering from deep sea.

Description: Corrigendum to "Impact of rainfall spatial distribution on rainfall-runoff modelling efficiency and initial soil moisture conditions estimation" published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 157–170, 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 267-267, 2012 Author(s): Y. Tramblay, C. Bouvier, P.-A. Ayral, and A. Marchandise No abstract available.

Description: Evolution of marine storminess in the Belgian part of the North Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 305-312, 2012 Author(s): D. Van den Eynde, R. De Sutter, and P. Haerens Severe storms have affected European coast lines in the past but knowledge on changes in storminess for the last decades is still sparse. Climate change is assumed to be a main driving factor with the potential to induce changes on the intensity, duration and frequency of powerful marine storms, including a long-term influence on peak wind speeds, surges and waves. It is, therefore, important to investigate whether in the last decades changes in the magnitude of storms, their duration and frequency could be observed. Understanding trends in storminess in the last decades will help to better prepare coastal managers for future events, taking into account potential changes on storm occurrence and magnitude to improve planning of mitigation and adaptation strategies. The purpose of this study was to focus on the evolution of extreme wind conditions, wave height and storm surge levels in the North Sea Region, especially in the Belgian part of the North Sea (BPNS). Based on the analysis performed it is concluded that no clear trend can be observed for the occurrence of significant increasing extreme wind speeds over the BPNS. Furthermore, one can conclude that not enough scientific evidence is available to support scenarios with increased wave height or storminess.

Description: The 2007 flood in the Sahel: causes, characteristics and its presentation in the media and FEWS NET Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 313-325, 2012 Author(s): C. Samimi, A. H. Fink, and H. Paeth During the rainy season in 2007, reports about exceptional rains and floodings in the Sahel were published in the media, especially in August and September. Institutions and organizations like the World Food Programme (WFP) and FEWS NET put the events on the agenda and released alerts and requested help. The partly controversial picture was that most of the Sahel faced a crisis caused by widespread floodings. Our study shows that the rainy season in 2007 was exceptional with regard to rainfall amount and return periods. In many areas the event had a return period between 1 and 50 yr with high spatial heterogeneity, with the exception of the Upper Volta basin, which yielded return periods of up to 1200 yr. Despite the strong rainfall, the interpretation of satellite images show that the floods were mainly confined to lakes and river beds. However, the study also proves the difficulties in assessing the meteorological processes and the demarcation of flooded areas in satellite images without ground truthing. These facts and the somewhat vague and controversial reports in the media and FEWS NET demonstrate that it is crucial to thoroughly analyze such events at a regional and local scale involving the local population.

Description: Factors selection in landslide susceptibility modelling on large scale following the gis matrix method: application to the river Beiro basin (Spain) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 327-340, 2012 Author(s): D. Costanzo, E. Rotigliano, C. Irigaray, J. D. Jiménez-Perálvarez, and J. Chacón A procedure to select the controlling factors connected to the slope instability has been defined. It allowed us to assess the landslide susceptibility in the Rio Beiro basin (about 10 km 2 ) over the northeastern area of the city of Granada (Spain). Field and remote (Google EarthTM) recognition techniques allowed us to generate a landslide inventory consisting in 127 phenomena. To discriminate between stable and unstable conditions, a diagnostic area had been chosen as the one limited to the crown and the toe of the scarp of the landslide. 15 controlling or determining factors have been defined considering topographic, geologic, geomorphologic and pedologic available data. Univariate tests, using both association coefficients and validation results of single-variable susceptibility models, allowed us to select the best predictors, which were combined for the unique conditions analysis. For each of the five recognised landslide typologies, susceptibility maps for the best models were prepared. In order to verify both the goodness of fit and the prediction skill of the susceptibility models, two different validation procedures were applied and compared. Both procedures are based on a random partition of the landslide archive for producing a test and a training subset. The first method is based on the analysis of the shape of the success and prediction rate curves, which are quantitatively analysed exploiting two morphometric indexes. The second method is based on the analysis of the degree of fit, by considering the relative error between the intersected target landslides by each of the different susceptibility classes in which the study area was partitioned. Both the validation procedures confirmed a very good predictive performance of the susceptibility models and of the actual procedure followed to select the controlling factors.

Description: Floodwater utilisation values of wetland services – a case study in Northeastern China Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 341-349, 2012 Author(s): S. B. Lü, S. G. Xu, and F. Feng Water plays a significant role in wetlands. Floodwater utilisation in wetlands brings a wide range of wetland services, from goods production and water regulation to animal protection and aesthetics related to water supply in wetlands. In this study, the floodwater utilisation values of wetland services were estimated within the Momoge wetland and Xianghai wetland in western Jilin province of northeastern China. From 2003 to 2008, the floodwater diverted from the Nenjiang and Tao'er River is 381 million m 3 , which translates into a monetary value of approximately 1.35 billion RMB in 2008 (RMB: Chinese Currency, RMB 6.80 = US$ 1), and the ratio of economic value, eco-environmental value, and social value is 1:12:2. Besides the monetary value of the water itself, excessive floodwater utilisation may bring losses to wetlands; the threshold floodwater utilisation volumes in wetlands are discussed. Floodwater utilisation can alleviate water shortages in wetlands, and the evaluation of floodwater utilisation in wetland services in monetary terms is a guide for the effective use of the floodwater resources and for the conservation of wetlands.

Description: Constraining fault interpretation through tomographic velocity gradients: application to northern Cascadia Solid Earth, 3, 53-61, 2012 Author(s): K. Ramachandran Spatial gradients of tomographic velocities are seldom used in interpretation of subsurface fault structures. This study shows that spatial velocity gradients can be used effectively in identifying subsurface discontinuities in the horizontal and vertical directions. Three-dimensional velocity models constructed through tomographic inversion of active source and/or earthquake traveltime data are generally built from an initial 1-D velocity model that varies only with depth. Regularized tomographic inversion algorithms impose constraints on the roughness of the model that help to stabilize the inversion process. Final velocity models obtained from regularized tomographic inversions have smooth three-dimensional structures that are required by the data. Final velocity models are usually analyzed and interpreted either as a perturbation velocity model or as an absolute velocity model. Compared to perturbation velocity model, absolute velocity models have an advantage of providing constraints on lithology. Both velocity models lack the ability to provide sharp constraints on subsurface faults. An interpretational approach utilizing spatial velocity gradients applied to northern Cascadia shows that subsurface faults that are not clearly interpretable from velocity model plots can be identified by sharp contrasts in velocity gradient plots. This interpretation resulted in inferring the locations of the Tacoma, Seattle, Southern Whidbey Island, and Darrington Devil's Mountain faults much more clearly. The Coast Range Boundary fault, previously hypothesized on the basis of sedimentological and tectonic observations, is inferred clearly from the gradient plots. Many of the fault locations imaged from gradient data correlate with earthquake hypocenters, indicating their seismogenic nature.

Description: Development of an operational coastal flooding early warning system Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 379-390, 2012 Author(s): D.-J. Doong, L. Z.-H. Chuang, L.-C. Wu, Y.-M. Fan, C. C. Kao, and J.-H. Wang Coastal floods are a consistent threat to oceanfront countries, causing major human suffering and substantial economic losses. Climate change is exacerbating the problem. An early warning system is essential to mitigate the loss of life and property from coastal flooding. The purpose of this study is to develop a coastal flooding early warning system (CoFEWs) by integrating existing sea-state monitoring technology, numerical ocean forecasting models, historical database and experiences, as well as computer science. The proposed system has capability of offering data for the past, information for the present and future. The system was developed for the Taiwanese coast due to its frequent threat by typhoons. An operational system without any manual work is the basic requirement of the system. Integration of various data sources is the system kernel. Numerical ocean models play an important role within the system because they provide data for assessment of possible flooding. The regional wave model (SWAN) that nested with the large domain wave model (NWW III) is operationally set up for coastal wave forecasting, in addition to the storm surge predicted by a POM model. Data assimilation technology is incorporated for enhanced accuracy. A warning signal is presented when the storm water level that accumulated from astronomical tide, storm surge, and wave-induced run-up exceeds the alarm sea level. This warning system has been in practical use for coastal flooding damage mitigation in Taiwan for years. An example of the system operation during the Typhoon Haitung which struck Taiwan in 2005 is illustrated in this study.

Description: Evaluation of a near-global eddy-resolving ocean model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 4305-4354, 2012 Author(s): P. R. Oke, D. A. Griffin, A. Schiller, R. J. Matear, R. Fiedler, J. Mansbridge, A. Lenton, M. Cahill, M. A. Chamberlain, and K. Ridgway Analysis of the variability in an 18-yr run of a near-global, eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model coupled with biogeochemistry is presented. Comparisons between modelled and observed mean sea level (MSL), mixed-layer depth (MLD), sea-level anomaly (SLA), sea-surface temperature (SST), and Chlorophyll a indicate that the model variability is realistic. We find some systematic errors in the modelled MLD, with the model generally deeper than observations, that results in errors in the Chlorophyll a , owing to the strong biophysical coupling. We evaluate several other metrics in the model, including the zonally-averaged seasonal cycle of SST, meridional overturning, volume transports through key Straits and passages, zonal averaged temperature and salinity, and El Nino-related SST indices. We find that the modelled seasonal cycle in SST is 0.5–1.5 °C weaker than observed; volume transports of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the East Australian Current, and Indonesian Throughflow are in good agreement with observational estimates; and the correlation between the modelled and observed NINO SST indices exceed 0.91. Most aspects of the model circulation are realistic. We conclude that the model output is suitable for broader analysis to better understand ocean dynamics and ocean variability.

Description: Improving probabilistic flood forecasting through a data assimilation scheme based on genetic programming Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3719-3732, 2012 Author(s): L. Mediero, L. Garrote, and A. Chavez-Jimenez Opportunities offered by high performance computing provide a significant degree of promise in the enhancement of the performance of real-time flood forecasting systems. In this paper, a real-time framework for probabilistic flood forecasting through data assimilation is presented. The distributed rainfall-runoff real-time interactive basin simulator (RIBS) model is selected to simulate the hydrological process in the basin. Although the RIBS model is deterministic, it is run in a probabilistic way through the results of calibration developed in a previous work performed by the authors that identifies the probability distribution functions that best characterise the most relevant model parameters. Adaptive techniques improve the result of flood forecasts because the model can be adapted to observations in real time as new information is available. The new adaptive forecast model based on genetic programming as a data assimilation technique is compared with the previously developed flood forecast model based on the calibration results. Both models are probabilistic as they generate an ensemble of hydrographs, taking the different uncertainties inherent in any forecast process into account. The Manzanares River basin was selected as a case study, with the process being computationally intensive as it requires simulation of many replicas of the ensemble in real time.

Description: The ICON-1.2 hydrostatic atmospheric dynamical core on triangular grids – Part 1: Formulation and performance of the baseline version Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 59-119, 2013 Author(s): H. Wan, M. A. Giorgetta, G. Zängl, M. Restelli, D. Majewski, L. Bonaventura, K. Fröhlich, D. Reinert, P. Rípodas, and L. Kornblueh A hydrostatic atmospheric dynamical core is developed for the purpose of global climate modelling. The model applies finite-difference methods to discretize the primitive equations on spherical icosahedral grids, using C-type staggering with triangles as control volumes for mass. This paper documents the numerical methods employed in the baseline version of the model, discusses their properties, and presents results from various idealized test cases. The evaluation shows that the new dynamical core is able to correctly represent the evolution of baroclinic eddies in the atmosphere as well as their role in heat and momentum transport. The simulations compare well with the reference solutions, and show a clear trend of convergence as the horizontal resolution increases. First results from two aqua-planet simulations are also presented, in which the equatorial wave spectra derived from tropical precipitation agree well with those simulated by a spectral transform model. The new dynamical core thus provides a good basis for further model development. Certain aspects of the model formulation that need further investigation and improvement are also pointed out.

Description: The GREENROOF module (v7.3) for modelling green roof hydrological and energetic performances within TEB Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1127-1172, 2013 Author(s): C. S. de Munck, A. Lemonsu, R. Bouzouidja, V. Masson, and R. Claverie The need to prepare cities for climate change adaptation requests the urban modeller community to implement within their models sustainable adaptation strategies to be tested against specific city morphologies and scenarios. Greening city roofs is part of these strategies. In this context, a GREENROOF module for TEB (Town Energy Balance) has been developed to model the interactions between buildings and green roof systems at the scale of the city. This module allows one to describe an extensive green roof composed of four functional layers (vegetation – grasses or sedums, substrate, retention/drainage layers and artificial roof layers) and to model vegetation-atmosphere fluxes of heat, water and momentum, as well as the hydrological and thermal fluxes throughout the substrate and the drainage layers, and the thermal coupling with the structural building envelope. TEB-GREENROOF (v7.3) is therefore able to represent the impact of climate forcings on the functioning of the green roof vegetation and, conversely, the influence of the green roof on the local climate. A calibration exercise to adjust the model to the peculiar hydrological characteristics of the substrates and drainage layers commonly found on green roofs is performed for a case study located in Nancy (France) which consists of an extensive green roof with sedums. Model results for the optimum hydrological calibration show a good dynamics for the substrate water content which is nevertheless under-estimated but without impacting too much the green roof temperatures since they present a good agreement with observations. These results are encouraging with regard to modelling the impact of green roofs on thermal indoor comfort and energy consumption at the scale of cities, for which GREENROOF will be running with the building energy version of TEB, TEB-BEM. Moreover, the green roof studied for GREENROOF evaluation being a city-widespread type of extensive green roof, the hydrological characteristics derived through the evaluation exercise will be used as the standard configuration to model extensive green roofs at the scale of cities.

Description: A survey of strong high-frequency sea level oscillations along the US East Coast between 2006 and 2011 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 473-482, 2013 Author(s): S. Pasquet, I. Vilibić, and J. Šepić A systematic survey of high-frequency sea level oscillations (

Description: A fuzzy decision making system for building damage map creation using high resolution satellite imagery Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 455-472, 2013 Author(s): H. Rastiveis, F. Samadzadegan, and P. Reinartz Recent studies have shown high resolution satellite imagery to be a powerful data source for post-earthquake damage assessment of buildings. Manual interpretation of these images, while being a reliable method for finding damaged buildings, is a subjective and time-consuming endeavor, rendering it unviable at times of emergency. The present research, proposes a new state-of-the-art method for automatic damage assessment of buildings using high resolution satellite imagery. In this method, at the first step a set of pre-processing algorithms are performed on the images. Then, extracting a candidate building from both pre- and post-event images, the intact roof part after an earthquake is found. Afterwards, by considering the shape and other structural properties of this roof part with its pre-event condition in a fuzzy inference system, the rate of damage for each candidate building is estimated. The results obtained from evaluation of this algorithm using QuickBird images of the December 2003 Bam, Iran, earthquake prove the ability of this method for post-earthquake damage assessment of buildings.

Description: The chemistry CATT–BRAMS model (CCATT–BRAMS 4.5): a regional atmospheric model system for integrated air quality and weather forecasting and research Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1173-1222, 2013 Author(s): K. M. Longo, S. R. Freitas, M. Pirre, V. Marécal, L. F. Rodrigues, J. Panetta, M. F. Alonso, N. E. Rosário, D. S. Moreira, M. S. Gácita, J. Arteta, R. Fonseca, R. Stockler, D. M. Katsurayama, A. Fazenda, and M. Bela The Coupled Chemistry Aerosol-Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CCATT–BRAMS, version 4.5) is an online regional chemical transport model designed for local and regional studies of atmospheric chemistry from surface to the lower stratosphere suitable both for operational and research purposes. It includes gaseous/aqueous chemistry, photochemistry, scavenging and dry deposition. The CCATT–BRAMS model takes advantages of the BRAMS specific development for the tropics/subtropics and of the recent availability of preprocessing tools for chemical mechanisms and of fast codes for photolysis rates. BRAMS includes state-of-the-art physical parameterizations and dynamic formulations to simulate atmospheric circulations of scales down to meters. The online coupling between meteorology and chemistry allows the system to be used for simultaneous atmospheric weather and chemical composition forecasts as well as potential feedbacks between them. The entire system comprises three preprocessing software tools for chemical mechanism (which are user defined), aerosol and trace gases emission fields and atmospheric and chemistry fields for initial and boundary conditions. In this paper, the model description is provided along evaluations performed using observational data obtained from ground-based stations, instruments aboard of aircrafts and retrieval from space remote sensing. The evaluation takes into account model application on different scales from megacities and Amazon Basin up to intercontinental region of the Southern Hemisphere.

Description: Parallel algorithms for planar and spherical Delaunay construction with an application to centroidal Voronoi tessellations Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1427-1466, 2013 Author(s): D. W. Jacobsen, M. Gunzburger, T. Ringler, J. Burkardt, and J. Peterson A new algorithm, featuring overlapping domain decompositions, for the parallel construction of Delaunay and Voronoi tessellations is developed. Overlapping allows for the seamless stitching of the partial Delaunay tessellations constructed by individual processors. The algorithm is then modified, by the addition of stereographic projections, to handle the parallel construction of spherical Delaunay and Voronoi tessellations. The algorithms are then embedded into algorithms for the parallel construction of planar and spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellations that require multiple constructions of Delaunay tessellations. Computational tests are used to demonstrate the efficiency and scalability of the algorithms for spherical Delaunay and centroidal Voronoi tessellations. Compared to serial versions of the algorithm and to the STRIPACK-based approaches, the new parallel algorithm results in significant speedups for the construction of spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellations.

Description: 19 May 2011 Kütahya – Simav earthquake and evaluation of existing sample RC buildings according to the TEC-2007 criteria Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 505-522, 2013 Author(s): M. H. Arslan, M. Olgun, M. A. Köroğlu, I. H. Erkan, A. Köken, and O. Tan This study examines the damage caused to reinforced concrete structures by the 2011 earthquake that occurred in Simav, Turkey. The study briefly reports on post-earthquake field observations, tectonic characteristics of the earthquake area, geotechnical characteristics of the field, and seismic characteristics of the earthquake. The main part of the study comprises a field study, material experiments, and performance analyses of two reinforced concrete buildings that survived the earthquake with medium level damage. The building performance was calculated and assessed according to the Turkish Earthquake Code requirements for existing building stock, and recommendations were made based on the findings.

Description: Tsunami damping by mangrove forest: a laboratory study using parameterized trees Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 483-503, 2013 Author(s): A. Strusińska-Correia, S. Husrin, and H. Oumeraci Tsunami attenuation by coastal vegetation was examined under laboratory conditions for mature mangroves Rhizophora sp. The developed novel tree parameterization concept, accounting for both bio-mechanical and structural tree properties, allowed to substitute the complex tree structure by a simplified tree model of identical hydraulic resistance. The most representative parameterized mangrove model was selected among the tested models with different frontal area and root density, based on hydraulic test results. The selected parameterized tree models were arranged in a forest model of different width and further tested systematically under varying incident tsunami conditions (solitary waves and tsunami bores). The damping performance of the forest models under these two flow regimes was compared in terms of wave height and force envelopes, wave transmission coefficient as well as drag and inertia coefficients. Unlike the previous studies, the results indicate a significant contribution of the foreshore topography to solitary wave energy reduction through wave breaking in comparison to that attributed to the forest itself. A similar rate of tsunami transmission (ca. 20%) was achieved for both flow conditions (solitary waves and tsunami bores) and the widest forest (75 m in prototype) investigated. Drag coefficient C D attributed to the solitary waves tends to be constant ( C D = 1.5) over the investigated range of the Reynolds number.

Description: Evaluating a lightning parameterization based on cloud-top height for mesoscale numerical model simulations Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 3493-3531, 2012 Author(s): J. Wong, M. C. Barth, and D. Noone The Price and Rind lightning parameterization based on cloud-top height is a commonly used method for predicting flash rate in global chemistry models. As mesoscale simulations begin to implement flash rate predictions at resolutions that partially resolve convection, it is necessary to validate and understand the behavior of this method within such regime. In this study, we tested the flash rate parameterization, intra-cloud/cloud-to-ground (IC:CG) partitioning parameterization, and the associated resolution dependency "calibration factor" by Price and Rind using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model running at 36 km, 12 km, and 4 km grid spacings within the continental United States. Our results show that while the integrated flash count is consistent with observation when model biases in convection are taken into account, an erroneous frequency distribution is simulated. When the spectral characteristics of lightning flash rate is a concern, we recommend the use of prescribed IC:CG values. In addition, using cloud-top from convective parameterization, the "calibration factor" is also shown to be insufficient in reconciling the resolution dependency at the tested grid spacing used in this study. We recommend scaling by areal ratio relative to a base-case grid spacing determined by convective core density.

Description: Using model reduction to predict the soil-surface C 18 OO flux: an example of representing complex biogeochemical dynamics in a computationally efficient manner Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 3469-3491, 2012 Author(s): W. J. Riley Earth System Models (ESMs) must calculate large-scale interactions between the land and atmosphere while accurately characterizing fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in water, carbon, and nutrient dynamics. We present here a high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) approach that allows detailed process representation of a coupled carbon and water tracer (the δ 18 O value of the soil-surface CO 2 flux (δ F s )) in a computationally tractable manner. δ F s depends on the δ 18 O value of soil water, soil moisture, soil temperature, and soil CO 2 production (all of which are depth-dependent), and the δ 18 O value of above-surface CO 2 . We tested the HDMR approach over a growing season in a C 4 -dominated pasture using two vertical soil discretizations. The difference between the HDMR approach and the full model solution in the three-month integrated isoflux was less than 0.2% (0.5 mol m −2 ‰), and the approach is up to 100 times faster than the full numerical solution. This type of model reduction approach allows representation of complex coupled biogeochemical processes in regional and global climate models and can be extended to characterize subgrid-scale spatial heterogeneity.

Description: ECOCLIMAP-II/Europe: a twofold database of ecosystems and surface parameters at 1-km resolution based on satellite information for use in land surface, meteorological and climate models Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 3573-3620, 2012 Author(s): S. Faroux, A. T. Kaptué Tchuenté, J.-L. Roujean, V. Masson, E. Martin, and P. Le Moigne The overall objective of the present study is to introduce the new ECOCLIMAP-II database for Europe, which is an upgrade for this region of the former initiative, ECOCLIMAP-I, already implemented at global scale. The ECOCLIMAP programme is a dual database at 1-km resolution that includes an ecosystem classification and a coherent set of land surface parameters that are primarily mandatory in meteorological modelling (notably leaf area index and albedo). Hence, the aim of this innovative physiography is to enhance the quality of initialisation and impose some surface attributes within the scope of weather forecasting and climate related studies. The strategy for implementing ECOCLIMAP-II is to depart from prevalent land cover products such as CLC2000 (Corine Land Cover) and GLC2000 (Global Land Cover) by splitting existing classes into new classes that possess a better regional character by virtue of the climatic environment (latitude, proximity to the sea, topography). The leaf area index (LAI) from MODIS and NDVI from SPOT/Vegetation yield the two proxy variables that were considered here in order to perform a multi-year trimmed analysis between 1999 and 2005 using the K-means method. Further, meteorological applications require each land cover type to appear as a partition of fractions of 4 main surface types or tiles (nature, water bodies, sea, urban areas) and, inside the nature tile, fractions of 12 Plant Functional Types (PFTs) representing generic vegetation types – principally broadleaf forest, needleleaf forest, C3 and C4 crops, grassland and bare land – as incorporated by the SVAT model ISBA developed at Météo France. This landscape division also forms the cornerstone of a validation exercise. The new ECOCLIMAP-II can be verified with auxiliary land cover products at very fine and coarse resolutions by means of versatile land occupation nomenclatures.

Description: Triplicated P-wave measurements for waveform tomography of the mantle transition zone Solid Earth, 3, 339-354, 2012 Author(s): S. C. Stähler, K. Sigloch, and T. Nissen-Meyer Triplicated body waves sample the mantle transition zone more extensively than any other wave type, and interact strongly with the discontinuities at 410 km and 660 km. Since the seismograms bear a strong imprint of these geodynamically interesting features, it is highly desirable to invert them for structure of the transition zone. This has rarely been attempted, due to a mismatch between the complex and band-limited data and the (ray-theoretical) modelling methods. Here we present a data processing and modelling strategy to harness such broadband seismograms for finite-frequency tomography. We include triplicated P-waves (epicentral distance range between 14 and 30°) across their entire broadband frequency range, for both deep and shallow sources. We show that is it possible to predict the complex sequence of arrivals in these seismograms, but only after a careful effort to estimate source time functions and other source parameters from data, variables that strongly influence the waveforms. Modelled and observed waveforms then yield decent cross-correlation fits, from which we measure finite-frequency traveltime anomalies. We discuss two such data sets, for North America and Europe, and conclude that their signal quality and azimuthal coverage should be adequate for tomographic inversion. In order to compute sensitivity kernels at the pertinent high body wave frequencies, we use fully numerical forward modelling of the seismic wavefield through a spherically symmetric Earth.

Description: Acoustic and seismic imaging of the Adra Fault (NE Alboran Sea): in search of the source of the 1910 Adra earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3255-3267, 2012 Author(s): E. Gràcia, R. Bartolome, C. Lo Iacono, X. Moreno, D. Stich, J. J. Martínez-Diaz, G. Bozzano, S. Martínez-Loriente, H. Perea, S. Diez, E. Masana, J. J. Dañobeitia, O. Tello, J. L. Sanz, E. Carreño, and EVENT-SHELF Team Recently acquired swath-bathymetry data and high-resolution seismic reflection profiles offshore Adra (Almería, Spain) reveal the surficial expression of a NW–SE trending 20 km-long fault, which we termed the Adra Fault. Seismic imaging across the structure depicts a sub-vertical fault reaching the seafloor surface and slightly dipping to the NE showing an along-axis structural variability. Our new data suggest normal displacement of the uppermost units with probably a lateral component. Radiocarbon dating of a gravity core located in the area indicates that seafloor sediments are of Holocene age, suggesting present-day tectonic activity. The NE Alboran Sea area is characterized by significant low-magnitude earthquakes and by historical records of moderate magnitude, such as the M w = 6.1 1910 Adra Earthquake. The location, dimension and kinematics of the Adra Fault agree with the fault solution and magnitude of the 1910 Adra Earthquake, whose moment tensor analysis indicates normal-dextral motion. The fault seismic parameters indicate that the Adra Fault is a potential source of large magnitude ( M w ≤ 6.5) earthquakes, which represents an unreported seismic hazard for the neighbouring coastal areas.

Description: IR spectral analysis for the diagnostics of crust earthquake precursors Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3269-3274, 2012 Author(s): R. M. Umarkhodgaev, V. A. Liperovsky, V. V. Mikhailin, V. V. Bogdanov, C.-V. Meister, and E. V. Liperovskaya Some possible physical processes are analysed that cause, under the condition of additional ionisation in a pre-breakdown electric field, emissions in the infrared (IR) interval. The atmospheric transparency region of the IR spectrum at wavelengths of 7–15 μm is taken into account. This transparency region corresponds to spectral lines of small atmospheric constituents like CH 4 , CO 2 , N 2 O, NO 2 , NO, and O 3 . The possible intensities of the IR emissions observable in laboratories and in nature are estimated. The acceleration process of the electrons in the pre-breakdown electrical field before its adhesion to the molecules is analyzed. For daytime conditions, modifications of the adsorption spectra of the scattered solar emissions are studied; for nighttime, variations of emission spectra may be used for the analysis.

Description: Intercomparison of temperature trends in IPCC CMIP5 simulations with observations, reanalyses and CMIP3 models Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 3621-3645, 2012 Author(s): J. Xu and A. M. Powell Jr. On the basis of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and the climate model simulations covering 1979 through 2005, the temperature trends and their uncertainties have been examined to note the similarities or differences compared to the radiosonde observations, reanalyses and the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) simulations. The results show noticeable discrepancies for the estimated temperature trends in the four data groups (Radiosonde, Reanalysis, CMIP3 and CMIP5) although similarities can be observed. Compared to the CMIP3 model simulations, the simulation in some of CMIP5 models were improved. The CMIP5 models displayed a negative temperature trend in the stratosphere closer to the strong negative trend seen in the observations. However, the positive tropospheric trend in the tropics is overestimated by the CMIP5 models relative to CMIP3 models. While some of the models produce temperature trend patterns more highly correlated with the observed patterns in CMIP5, the other models (such as CCSM4 and IPSL_CM5A-LR) exhibit the reverse tendency. The CMIP5 temperature trend uncertainty was significantly reduced in most areas, especially in the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere, compared to the CMIP3 simulations. Similar to the CMIP3, the CMIP5 simulations overestimated the tropospheric warming in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere and underestimated the stratospheric cooling. The crossover point where tropospheric warming changes into stratospheric cooling occurred near 100 hPa in the tropics, which is higher than in the radiosonde and reanalysis data. The result is likely related to the overestimation of convective activity over the tropical areas in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Generally, for the temperature trend estimates associated with the numerical models including the reanalyses and global climate models, the uncertainty in the stratosphere is much larger than that in the troposphere, and the uncertainty in the Antarctic is the largest. In addition, note that the reanalyses show the largest uncertainty in the lower tropical stratosphere, and the CMIP3 simulations show the largest uncertainty in both the south and north polar regions.

Description: Propagation of Atlantic Ocean swells in the north Indian Ocean: a case study Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3605-3615, 2012 Author(s): S. V. Samiksha, P. Vethamony, V. M. Aboobacker, and R. Rashmi An analysis of altimeter significant wave height data of May 2007 revealed the occurrence of an extreme weather event off southern tip of South Africa in the Atlantic Ocean, and generation of a series of very high swells at 40° S. These swells propagated towards northeast and broke over La Réunion island in the Indian Ocean on 12 May 2007. The wave model WAVEWATCH III was used to study the propagation of these swells in the Indian Ocean. The model was validated for the Indian Ocean using moored buoy data at 12 locations and merged altimeter wave data. The wave model accurately reproduced the event of May 2007. Swell heights, of the order of 15.0 m, at the generation area reduced to 6.0 m near La Réunion island. This study shows that the swells generated in the Roaring Forties of the Atlantic Ocean (between 15° to 80° E longitude) propagate in the NE/NNE direction towards the north Indian Ocean, and wave characteristics of the Arabian Sea are least influenced compared to that of Bay of Bengal, when swells from the Atlantic Ocean enter the Indian Ocean. The double peak spectrum extracted for the Bay of Bengal indicates that one of the peaks is due to swells generated off southern tip of South Africa.

Description: Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model intercomparison project (WETCHIMP) Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 4071-4136, 2012 Author(s): R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, V. Brovkin, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan The Wetland and Wetland CH 4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH 4 ) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2012). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extents and CH 4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH 4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extents and CH 4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH 4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

Description: Improving the representation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) in the MOZART-4 global chemical transport model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 4187-4232, 2012 Author(s): A. Mahmud and K. C. Barsanti The secondary organic aerosol (SOA) module in the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4) has been updated by replacing existing two-product (2p) parameters with those obtained from two-product volatility basis set (2p-VBS) fits, and by treating SOA formation from the following volatile organic compounds (VOCs): isoprene, propene and lumped alkenes. Strong seasonal and spatial variations in global SOA distributions were demonstrated, with significant differences in the predicted concentrations between the base-case and updated model versions. The base-case MOZART-4 predicted annual average SOA of 0.36 ± 0.50 μg m −3 in South America, 0.31 ± 0.38 μg m −3 in Indonesia, 0.09 ± 0.05 μg m −3 in the USA, and 0.12 ± 0.07 μg m −3 in Europe. Concentrations from the updated versions of the model showed a~marked increase in annual average SOA. Using the updated set of parameters alone (MZ4-v1) increased annual average SOA by ~8%, ~16%, ~56%, and ~108% from the base-case in South America, Indonesia, USA, and Europe, respectively. Treatment of additional parent VOCs (MZ4-v2) resulted in an even more dramatic increase of ~178–406% in annual average SOA for these regions over the base-case. The increases in predicted SOA concentrations further resulted in increases in corresponding SOA contributions to annual average total aerosol optical depth (AOD) by

Description: Modeling agriculture in the Community Land Model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 4137-4185, 2012 Author(s): B. Drewniak, J. Song, J. Prell, V. R. Kotamarthi, and R. Jacob The potential impact of climate change on agriculture is uncertain. In addition, agriculture could influence above- and below-ground carbon storage. Development of models that represent agriculture is necessary to address these impacts. We have developed an approach to integrate agriculture representations for three crop types – maize, soybean, and spring wheat – into the coupled carbon-nitrogen version of the Community Land Model (CLM), to help address these questions. Here we present the new model, CLM-Crop, validated against observations from two AmeriFlux sites in the United States, planted with maize and soybean. Seasonal carbon fluxes compared well with field measurements. CLM-Crop yields were comparable with observations in some regions, although the generality of the crop model and its lack of technology and irrigation made direct comparison difficult. CLM-Crop was compared against the standard CLM3.5, which simulates crops as grass. The comparison showed improvement in gross primary productivity in regions where crops are the dominant vegetation cover. Crop yields and productivity were negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with precipitation. In case studies with the new crop model looking at impacts of residue management and planting date on crop yield, we found that increased residue returned to the litter pool increased crop yield, while reduced residue returns resulted in yield decreases. Using climate controls to signal planting date caused different responses in different crops. Maize and soybean had opposite reactions: when low temperature threshold resulted in early planting, maize responded with a loss of yield, but soybean yields increased. Our improvements in CLM demonstrate a new capability in the model – simulating agriculture in a realistic way, complete with fertilizer and residue management practices. Results are encouraging, with improved representation of human influences on the land surface and the potentially resulting climate impacts.

Description: A test of numerical instability and stiffness in the parametrizations of the ARPÉGE and ALADIN models Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 4233-4268, 2012 Author(s): M. Tudor Meteorological numerical weather prediction (NWP) models solve a system of partial differential equations in time and space. Semi-lagrangian advection scheme in the model dynamics allows for long time-steps. These longer time-steps can result in instabilities occurring in the model physics. A system of differential equations in which some solution components decay more rapidly than others is stiff. In this case it is stability rather than accuracy that restricts the time-step. The vertical diffusion parametrization can cause fast non-meteorological oscillations around the slowly evolving true solution (fibrillations). These are treated with an anti-fibrillation scheme. But small oscillations remain in an operational weather forecasts using ARPÉGE and ALADIN models. It is needed to test of the complete model formulation, as implemented in the operational forecast. In this paper, a simple test is designed. The test reveals if the formulation of particular physical parametrization is a stiff problem or potentially numerically unstable in combination with any other part of the model. When the test is applied to a stable scheme, the solution remains stable. But, applying the test to a potentially unstable scheme yields a solution with fibrillations of substantial amplitude. The parametrizations of a NWP model ARPÉGE were tested one by one to see which one may be the source of unstable model behaviour. The test has identified the stratiform precipitation scheme (a diagnostic Kessler type scheme) as a stiff problem, particularly the term that describes the evaporation of snow.

Description: Monitoring methane emission of mud volcanoes by seismic tremor measurements: a pilot study Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3617-3629, 2012 Author(s): D. Albarello, M. Palo, and G. Martinelli A new approach for estimating methane emission at mud volcanoes is here proposed based on measurements of the seismic tremor on their surface. Data obtained at the Dashgil mud volcano in Azerbaijan reveal the presence of energy bursts characterized by well-determined features (i.e. waveforms, spectra and polarization properties) that can be associated with bubbling at depth. Counting such events provides a possible tool for monitoring gas production in the reservoir, thus minimizing logistic troubles and representing a cheap and effective alternative to more complex approaches. Specifically, we model the energy bursts as the effect of resonant gas bubbles at depth. This modelling allows to estimate the dimension of the bubbles and, consequently, the gas outflow from the main conduit in the assumption that all emissions from depth occur by bubble uprising. The application of this model to seismic events detected at the Dashgil mud volcano during three sessions of measurements carried out in 2006 and 2007 provides gas flux estimates that are in line with those provided by independent measurements at the same structure. This encouraging result suggests that the one here proposed could be considered a new promising, cheap and easy to apply tool for gas flux measurements in bubbling gas seepage areas.

Description: PEATBOG: a biogeochemical model for analyzing coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1599-1688, 2013 Author(s): Y. Wu and C. Blodau Elevated nitrogen deposition and climate change alter the vegetation communities and carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in peatlands. To address this issue we developed a new process-oriented biogeochemical model (PEATBOG) for analyzing coupled carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands. The model consists of four submodels, which simulate: (1) daily water table depth and depth profiles of soil moisture, temperature and oxygen levels; (2) competition among three plants functional types (PFTs), production and litter production of plants; (3) decomposition of peat; and (4) production, consumption, diffusion and export of dissolved C and N species in soil water. The model is novel in the integration of the C and N cycles, the explicit spatial resolution belowground, the consistent conceptualization of movement of water and solutes, the incorporation of stoichiometric controls on elemental fluxes and a consistent conceptualization of C and N reactivity in vegetation and soil organic matter. The model was evaluated for the Mer Bleue Bog, near Ottawa, Ontario, with regards to simulation of soil moisture and temperature and the most important processes in the C and N cycles. Model sensitivity was tested for nitrogen input, precipitation, and temperature, and the choices of the most uncertain parameters were justified. A simulation of nitrogen deposition over 40 yr demonstrates the advantages of the PEATBOG model in tracking biogeochemical effects and vegetation change in the ecosystem.

Description: δ 18 O water isotope in the i LOVECLIM model (version 1.0) – Part 3: A paleoperspective based on present-day data-model comparison for oxygen stable isotopes in carbonates Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1527-1558, 2013 Author(s): T. Caley and D. M. Roche Oxygen stable isotopes ( 18 O) are among the most usual tools in paleoclimatology/paleoceanography. Simulation of oxygen stable isotopes allows testing how the past variability of these isotopes in water can be interpreted. By modelling the proxy directly in the model, the results can also be directly compared with the data. Water isotopes have been implemented in the global three-dimensional model of intermediate complexity i LOVECLIM allowing fully coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations. In this study, we present the validation of the model results for present day climate against global database for oxygen stable isotopes in carbonates. The limitation of the model together with the processes operating in the natural environment reveal the complexity of use the continental calcite 18 O signal of speleothems for a data-model comparison exercise. On the contrary, the reconstructed surface ocean calcite δ 18 O signal in i LOVECLIM does show a very good agreement with late Holocene database (foraminifers) at the global and regional scales. Our results indicate that temperature and the isotopic composition of the seawater are the main control on the fossil δ 18 O signal recorded in foraminifer shells and that depth habitat and seasonality play a role but have secondary importance. We argue that a data-model comparison for surface ocean calcite δ 18 O in past climate, such as the last glacial maximum (≈21 000 yr), could constitute an interesting tool for mapping the potential shifts of the frontal systems and circulation changes throughout time. Similarly, the potential changes in intermediate oceanic circulation systems in the past could be documented by a data (benthic foraminifers)-model comparison exercise whereas future investigations are necessary in order to quantitatively compare the results with data for the deep ocean.

Description: δ 18 O water isotope in the i LOVECLIM model (version 1.0) – Part 2: Evaluation of model results against observed δ 18 O in water samples Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1495-1525, 2013 Author(s): D. M. Roche and T. Caley The H 2 18 O stable isotope was previously introduced in the three coupled components of the Earth System Model i LOVECLIM: atmosphere, ocean and vegetation. The results of a long (5000 yr) pre-industrial equilibrium simulation are presented and evaluated against measurement of H 2 18 O abundance in present-day water for the atmospheric and oceanic components. For the atmosphere, it is found that the model reproduces the observed spatial distribution and relationships to climate variables with some merit, though limitations following our approach are highlighted. Indeed, we obtain the main gradients with a robust representation of the Rayleigh distillation but caveats appear in Antarctica and around the Mediterranean region due to model limitation. For the oceanic component, the agreement between the modelled and observed distribution of water δ 18 O is found to be very good. Mean ocean surface latitudinal gradients are faithfully reproduced as well as the mark of the main intermediate and deep water masses. This opens large prospects for the applications in paleoclimatic context.

Description: δ 18 O water isotope in the i LOVECLIM model (version 1.0) – Part 1: Implementation and verification Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1467-1494, 2013 Author(s): D. M. Roche A new 18 O stable water isotope scheme is developed for three components of the i LOVECLIM coupled climate model: atmospheric, oceanic and land surface. The equations required to reproduce the fractionation of stable water isotopes in the simplified atmospheric model ECBilt are developed consistently with the moisture scheme. Simplifications in the processes are made to account for the simplified vertical structure including only one moist layer. Implementation of these equations together with a passive tracer scheme for the ocean and a equilibrium fractionation scheme for the land surface leads to the closure of the (isotopic-)water budget in our climate system. Following the implementation, verification of the existence of usual δ 18 O to climatic relationships are performed for the Rayleigh distillation, the Dansgaard relationship and the δ 18 O–salinity relationship. Advantages and caveats of the approach taken are outlined.

Description: Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new generation ice-sheet model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1689-1741, 2013 Author(s): O. Gagliardini, T. Zwinger, F. Gillet-Chaulet, G. Durand, L. Favier, B. de Fleurian, R. Greve, M. Malinen, C. Martín, P. Råback, J. Ruokolainen, M. Sacchettini, M. Schäfer, H. Seddik, and J. Thies The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report concluded that ice-sheet flow models are unable to forecast the current increase of polar ice sheet discharge and the associated contribution to sea-level rise. Since then, the glaciological community has undertaken a huge effort to develop and improve a new generation of ice-flow models, and as a result, a significant number of new ice-sheet models have emerged. Among them is the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice, based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer. It was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections for the evolution of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger scale problems, earning the status of an ice-sheet model. Here, we summarise almost 10 yr of development performed by different groups. We present the components already included in Elmer/Ice, its numerical performance, selected applications, as well as developments planned for the future.

Description: WRFv3.2-SPAv2: development and validation of a coupled ecosystem-atmosphere model, scaling from surface fluxes of CO 2 and energy to atmospheric profiles Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 6, 1559-1598, 2013 Author(s): T. L. Smallman, J. B. Moncrieff, and M. Williams The Weather Research & Forecasting meteorological (WRF) model has been coupled to the Soil Plant Atmosphere (SPA) terrestrial ecosystem model, to produce WRF-SPA. SPA generates realistic land-atmosphere exchanges through fully coupled hydrological, carbon and energy cycles. The addition of a land surface model (SPA) capable of modelling biospheric CO 2 exchange allows WRF-SPA to be used for investigating the feedbacks between biosphere carbon balance, meteorology and land management/land use change. We have extensively validated WRF-SPA using multi-annual observations of air temperature, turbulent fluxes, net radiation and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 at three sites, representing the dominant vegetation types in Scotland (forest, managed grassland and arable agriculture). WRF-SPA generates more realistic seasonal behaviour at the site level compared to an unmodified version of WRF, and produces realistic CO 2 exchanges. WRF-SPA is also able to realistically model atmospheric profiles of CO 2 over Scotland, spanning a 3 yr period (2004–2006), capturing both profile structure, indicating realistic transport, and magnitude indicating appropriate source sink distribution and CO 2 exchange. WRF-SPA makes use of CO 2 tracer pools and can therefore identify and quantify land surface contributions to the modelled atmospheric CO 2 signal at a specified location.

Description: Comparison between different approaches to modeling shallow landslide susceptibility: a case history in Oltrepo Pavese, Northern Italy Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 559-573, 2013 Author(s): D. Zizioli, C. Meisina, R. Valentino, and L. Montrasio On the 27 and 28 April 2009, the area of Oltrepo Pavese in northern Italy was affected by a very intense rainfall event that caused a great number of shallow landslides. These instabilities occurred on slopes covered by vineyards or recently formed woodlands and caused damage to many roads and one human loss. Based on aerial photographs taken immediately after the event and field surveys, more than 1600 landslides were detected. After acquiring topographical data, geotechnical properties of the soils and land use, susceptibility analysis on a territorial scale was carried out. In particular, different physically based models were applied to two contiguous sites with the same geological context but different typologies and sizes of shallow landslides. This paper presents the comparison between the ex-post results obtained from the different approaches. On the basis of the observed landslide localizations, the accuracy of the different models was evaluated, and the significant results are highlighted.

Description: Bayesian hierarchical modelling of North Atlantic windiness Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13, 545-557, 2013 Author(s): E. Vanem and O. N. Breivik Extreme weather conditions represent serious natural hazards to ship operations and may be the direct cause or contributing factor to maritime accidents. Such severe environmental conditions can be taken into account in ship design and operational windows can be defined that limits hazardous operations to less extreme conditions. Nevertheless, possible changes in the statistics of extreme weather conditions, possibly due to anthropogenic climate change, represent an additional hazard to ship operations that is less straightforward to account for in a consistent way. Obviously, there are large uncertainties as to how future climate change will affect the extreme weather conditions at sea and there is a need for stochastic models that can describe the variability in both space and time at various scales of the environmental conditions. Previously, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models have been developed to describe the variability and complex dependence structures of significant wave height in space and time. These models were found to perform reasonably well and provided some interesting results, in particular, pertaining to long-term trends in the wave climate. In this paper, a similar framework is applied to oceanic windiness and the spatial and temporal variability of the 10-m wind speed over an area in the North Atlantic ocean is investigated. When the results from the model for North Atlantic windiness is compared to the results for significant wave height over the same area, it is interesting to observe that whereas an increasing trend in significant wave height was identified, no statistically significant long-term trend was estimated in windiness. This may indicate that the increase in significant wave height is not due to an increase in locally generated wind waves, but rather to increased swell. This observation is also consistent with studies that have suggested a poleward shift of the main storm tracks.

Description: MESMO 2: a mechanistic marine silica cycle and coupling to a simple terrestrial scheme Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 2999-3033, 2012 Author(s): K. Matsumoto, K. S. Tokos, A. Huston, and H. Joy-Warren Here we describe the second version of Minnesota Earth System Model for Ocean biogeochemistry (MESMO 2), an earth system model of intermediate complexity, which consists of a dynamical ocean, dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice, and energy moisture balanced atmosphere. The new version has more realistic land ice masks and is driven by seasonal winds. A major aim in version 2 is representing the marine silica cycle mechanistically in order to investigate climate-carbon feedbacks involving diatoms, a critically important class of phytoplankton in terms of carbon export production. This is achieved in part by including iron, on which phytoplankton uptake of silicic acid depends. Also, MESMO 2 is coupled to an existing terrestrial model, which allows for the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between land and the atmosphere. The coupled model, called MESMO 2E, is appropriate for more complete earth system simulations. The new version was calibrated with the goal of preserving reasonable interior ocean ventilation and various biological production rates in the ocean and land, while simulating key features of the marine silica cycle.

Description: Instabilities on Alpine temperate glaciers: new insights arising from the numerical modelling of Allalingletscher (Valais, Switzerland) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 2977-2991, 2012 Author(s): J. Faillettaz, M. Funk, and D. Sornette The processes leading to a glacier instability depend on the thermal properties of the contact between the glacier and its bedrock. Assessing the stability of temperate glacier (i.e. the glacier can slide on its bedrock) remains problematic. In order to scrutinize in more detail the processes governing such "sliding" instabilities, a numerical model designed to investigate gravitational instabilities in heterogeneous media was further developed to account for the presence of water at the interface between the bedrock and the glacier for Allalingletscher. This model made it possible to account for various geometric configurations, interaction between sliding and tension cracking and water flow at the bedrock. We could show that both a critical geometrical configuration of the glacier tongue and the existence of a distributed subglacial drainage network were the main causes of the Allalingletscher catastrophic break-off. Moreover, the analysis of the modelling results diagnosed the phenomenon of recoupling of the glacier to its bed followed by a pulse of subglacial water flow as a potential new precursory sign of the final break-off in 1965. This model casts a gleam of hope for a better understanding of the ultimate rupture process resulting from such glacier sliding instabilities.

Description: Uncertainty of lateral boundary conditions in a convection-permitting ensemble: a strategy of selection for Mediterranean heavy precipitation events Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 2993-3011, 2012 Author(s): O. Nuissier, B. Joly, B. Vié, and V. Ducrocq This study examines the impact of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) in convection-permitting (C-P) ensemble simulations with the AROME model driven by the ARPEGE EPS (PEARP). Particular attention is paid to two torrential rainfall episodes, observed on 15–16 June 2010 (the Var case) and 7–8 September 2010 (the Gard-Ardèche case) over the southeastern part of France. Regarding the substantial computing time for convection-permitting models, a methodology of selection of a few LBCs, dedicated for C-P ensemble simulations of heavy precipitation events is evaluated. Several sensitivity experiments are carried out to evaluate the skill of the AROME ensembles, using different approaches for selection of the driving PEARP members. The convective-scale predictability of the Var case is very low and it is driven primarily by a surface low over the Gulf of Lyon inducing a strong convergent low-level flow, and accordingly advecting strong moisture supply from the Mediterranean Sea toward the flooded area. The Gard-Ardèche case is better handled in ensemble simulations as a surface cold front moved slowly eastwards while increasing the low-level water vapour ahead is well reproduced. The selection based on a cluster analysis of the PEARP members generally better performs against a random selection. The consideration of relevant meteorological parameters for the convective events of interest (i.e. geopotential height at 500 hPa and horizontal moisture flux at 925 hPa) refined the cluster analysis. It also helps in better capturing the forecast uncertainty variability which is spatially more localized at the "high-impact region" due to the selection of more mesoscale parameters.

Description: A new method to diagnose the contribution of anthropogenic activities to temperature: temperature tagging Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 3183-3215, 2012 Author(s): V. Grewe This study presents a new methodology, called temperature tagging. It keeps track of the contributions of individual processes to temperature within a climate model simulation. As a first step and as a test bed a simple box climate model is regarded. The model consists of an atmosphere, which absorbs and emits radiation and of a surface, which reflects, absorbs and emits radiation. The tagging methodology is used to investigate the impact of the atmosphere on surface temperature. Four processes are investigated in more detail and their contribution to the surface temperature quantified: (i) shortwave influx and shortwave atmospheric absorption ("sw"), (ii) longwave atmospheric absorption due to non-CO 2 greenhouse gases ("nC"), (iii) due to a base case CO 2 concentration ("bC"), and (iv) due to an enhanced CO 2 concentration ("eC"). The differential equation for the temperature in the box climate model is decomposed into four equations for the tagged temperatures. This method is applied to investigate the contribution of longwave absorption to the surface temperature (greenhouse effect), which is calculated to be 68 K. This estimate contrasts an alternative calculation of the greenhouse effect of slightly more than 30 K based on the difference of the surface temperature with and without an atmosphere. The difference of the two estimates is due to a shortwave cooling effect and a reduced contribution of the shortwave to the total downward flux: The shortwave absorption of the atmosphere results in a reduced net shortwave flux at the surface of 192 W m −2 , leading to a cooling of the surface by 14 K. Introducing an atmosphere results in a downward longwave flux at the surface due to atmospheric absorption of 189 W m −2 , which roughly equals the net shortwave flux of 192 W m −2 . This longwave flux is a result of both, the radiation due to atmospheric temperatures and its longwave absorption. Hence the longwave absorption roughly accounts for 91 W m −2 out of a total of 381 W m −2 (roughly 25%) and therefore accounts for a temperature of 68 K. In a second experiment, the CO 2 concentration is doubled, which leads to an increase in surface temperature of 1.2 K, resulting from an temperature increase due to CO 2 of 1.9 K, due to non-CO 2 greenhouse gases of 0.6 K and a cooling of 1.3 K due to a reduced importance of the solar heating for the surface and atmospheric temperatures. These two experiments show the feasibility of temperature tagging and its potential as a diagnostic for climate simulations.

Description: Hydrometeorological threshold conditions for debris flow initiation in Norway Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3059-3073, 2012 Author(s): N. K. Meyer, A. V. Dyrrdal, R. Frauenfelder, B. Etzelmüller, and F. Nadim Debris flows, triggered by extreme precipitation events and rapid snow melt, cause considerable damage to the Norwegian infrastructure every year. To define intensity-duration (ID) thresholds for debris flow initiation critical water supply conditions arising from intensive rainfall or snow melt were assessed on the basis of daily hydro-meteorological information for 502 documented debris flow events. Two threshold types were computed: one based on absolute ID relationships and one using ID relationships normalized by the local precipitation day normal (PDN). For each threshold type, minimum, medium and maximum threshold values were defined by fitting power law curves along the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the data population. Depending on the duration of the event, the absolute threshold intensities needed for debris flow initiation vary between 15 and 107 mm day −1 . Since the PDN changes locally, the normalized thresholds show spatial variations. Depending on location, duration and threshold level, the normalized threshold intensities vary between 6 and 250 mm day −1 . The thresholds obtained were used for a frequency analysis of over-threshold events giving an estimation of the exceedance probability and thus potential for debris flow events in different parts of Norway. The absolute thresholds are most often exceeded along the west coast, while the normalized thresholds are most frequently exceeded on the west-facing slopes of the Norwegian mountain ranges. The minimum thresholds derived in this study are in the range of other thresholds obtained for regions with a climate comparable to Norway. Statistics reveal that the normalized threshold is more reliable than the absolute threshold as the former shows no spatial clustering of debris flows related to water supply events captured by the threshold.

Description: Crossing the digital divide: an interoperable solution for sharing time series and coverages in Earth sciences Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3013-3029, 2012 Author(s): F. R. Salas, E. Boldrini, D. R. Maidment, S. Nativi, and B. Domenico In a world driven by the Internet and the readily accessible information it provides, there exists a high demand to easily discover and collect vast amounts of data available over several scientific domains and numerous data types. To add to the complexity, data is not only available through a plethora of data sources within disparate systems but also represents differing scales of space and time. One clear divide that exists in the world of information science and technology is the disjoint relationship between hydrologic and atmospheric science information. These worlds have long been split between observed time series at discrete geographical features in hydrologic science and modeled or remotely sensed coverages or grids over continuous space and time domains in atmospheric science. As more information becomes widely available through the Web, data are being served and published as Web services using standardized implementations and encodings. This paper illustrates a framework that utilizes Sensor Observation Services, Web Feature Services, Web Coverage Services, Catalog Services for the Web and GI-cat Services to index and discover data offered through different classes of information. This services infrastructure supports multiple servers of time series and gridded information, which can be searched through multiple portals, using a common set of time, space and concept query filters.

Description: Simulating dam-breach flood scenarios of the Tangjiashan landslide dam induced by the Wenchuan Earthquake Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 3031-3044, 2012 Author(s): X. Fan, C. X. Tang, C. J. van Westen, and D. Alkema Floods from failures of landslide dams can pose a hazard to people and property downstream, which have to be rapidly assessed and mitigated in order to reduce the potential risk. The Tangjiashan landslide dam induced by the M w = 7.9 2008 Wenchuan earthquake had impounded the largest lake in the earthquake affected area with an estimated volume of 3 × 10 8 m 3 , and the potential catastrophic dam breach posed a serious threat to more than 2.5 million people in downstream towns and Mianyang city, located 85 km downstream. Chinese authorities had to evacuate parts of the city until the Tangjiashan landslide dam was artificially breached by a spillway, and the lake was drained. We propose an integrated approach to simulate the dam-breach floods for a number of possible scenarios, to evaluate the severity of the threat to Mianyang city. Firstly, the physically-based BREACH model was applied to predict the flood hydrographs at the dam location, which were calibrated with observational data of the flood resulting from the artificial breaching. The output hydrographs from this model were inputted into the 1-D–2-D SOBEK hydrodynamic model to simulate the spatial variations in flood parameters. The simulated flood hydrograph, peak discharge and peak arrival time at the downstream towns fit the observations. Thus this approach is capable of providing reliable predictions for the decision makers to determine the mitigation plans. The sensitivity analysis of the BREACH model input parameters reveals that the average grain size, the unit weight and porosity of the dam materials are the most sensitive parameters. The variability of the dam material properties causes a large uncertainty in the estimation of the peak flood discharge and peak arrival time, but has little influence on the flood inundation area and flood depth downstream. The effect of cascading breaches of smaller dams downstream of the Tangjiashan dam was insignificant, due to their rather small volumes, which were only 2% of the volume of the Tangjiashan lake. The construction of the spillway was proven to have played a crucial role in reducing the dam-breach flood, because all the other natural breach scenarios would have caused the flooding of the downstream towns and parts of Mianyang city. However, in retrospect improvements on the spillway design and the evacuation planning would have been possible. The dam-break flood risk will be better controlled by reducing the spillway channel gradient and the porosity of the coating of the channel bottom. The experience and lessons we learned from the Tangjiashan case will contribute to improving the hazard mitigation and risk management planning of similar events in future.

Description: Heat-flow and subsurface temperature history at the site of Saraya (eastern Senegal) Solid Earth, 3, 213-224, 2012 Author(s): F. Lucazeau and F. Rolandone New temperature measurements from eight boreholes in the West African Craton (WAC) reveal superficial perturbations down to 100 m below the alteration zone. These perturbations are both related to a recent increase in the surface air temperature (SAT) and to the site effects caused by fluid circulations and/or the lower conduction in the alterites. The ground surface temperature (GST), inverted from the boreholes temperatures, increased slowly in the past (~0.4 °C from 1700 to 1940) and then, more importantly, in recent years (~1.5 °C from 1940 to 2010). This recent trend is consistent with the increase of the SAT recorded at two nearby meteorological stations (Tambacounda and Kedougou), and more generally in the Sahel with a coeval rainfall decrease. Site effects are superimposed to the climatic effect and interpreted by advective (circulation of fluids) or conductive (lower conductivity of laterite and of high-porosity sand) perturbations. We used a 1-D finite differences thermal model and a Monte-Carlo procedure to find the best estimates of these site perturbations: all the eight borehole temperature logs can be interpreted with the same basal heat-flow and the same surface temperature history, but with some realistic changes of thermal conductivity and/or fluid velocity. The GST trend observed in Senegal can be confirmed by two previous borehole measurements made in 1983 in other locations of West Africa, the first one in an arid zone of northern Mali and the second one in a sub-humid zone in southern Mali. Finally, the background heat-flow is low (31±2 mW m −2 ), which makes this part of the WAC more similar with the observations in the southern part (33±8 mW m −2 ) rather than with those in the northern part and in the Pan-African domains where the surface heat-flow is 15–20 mW m −2 higher.

Description: Implementation of the Fast-JX Photolysis scheme into the UKCA component of the MetUM chemistry climate model Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 3217-3260, 2012 Author(s): P. J. Telford, N. L. Abraham, A. T. Archibald, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, O. Morgenstern, F. M. O'Connor, N. A. D. Richards, and J. A. Pyle Atmospheric chemistry is driven by photolytic reactions, making their modelling a crucial component of atmospheric models. We describe the implementation and validation of Fast-JX, a state of the art model of interactive photolysis, into the MetUM chemistry climate model. This allows for interactive photolysis frequencies to be calculated in the troposphere and augments the calculation of the frequencies in the stratosphere by accounting for clouds and aerosols in addition to ozone. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new photolysis scheme we employ new methods of validating the model, including techniques for sampling the model to compare to flight track and satellite data.

Description: COSTRICE – three model online coupling using OASIS: problems and solutions Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 3261-3310, 2012 Author(s): H. T. M. Ho, B. Rockel, H. Kapitza, B. Geyer, and E. Meyer The coupled system COSTRICE is developed for the first time in order to reproduce the interactions and feedbacks between atmosphere, ocean and sea-ice in a two-way online coupled model system containing three component models for regional climate simulations over Baltic Sea and North Sea regions. The regional climate model CCLM 1 is coupled to the regional ocean model TRIMNP 1 and the sea ice model CICE 1 via the coupler OASIS3. In this study, CCLM is setup with a horizontal grid mesh size of 50 km and 32 vertical atmosphere layers and driven by the 6-h ERA-interim reanalysis data as initial and boundary conditions. TRIMNP is setup with a horizontal grid mesh size of 12.8 km and 50 vertical ocean levels. CICE calculates ice in 5 categories and runs with the same horizontal resolution as TRIMNP but only over the Baltic Sea and the Kattegat Bay of the North Sea. In a two-way online coupling process, CCLM is linked to TRIMNP through sea surface temperature (SST) as lower boundary condition every 3 h and TRIMNP is driven by 1-h atmospheric state variables and fluxes of CCLM. The data exchange processes between TRIMNP and CICE as well as from CCLM to CICE take place with an interval of 3 h. The coupled model is applied in a study for climate simulations over Baltic Sea and North Sea regions in 1997. The coupled system is set up to run in parallel on the super computing system IBM-power 6 at the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). 1 See Table A1.

Description: A generalized tagging method Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 3311-3324, 2012 Author(s): V. Grewe The understanding of causes of changes in climate-chemistry simulations is an important, but often challenging task. In atmospheric chemistry, one approach is to tag species according to their origin (e.g. emission categories) and to inherit these tags to other species during subsequent reactions. This concept was recently employed to calculate the contribution of atmospheric processes to temperature. Here a new concept for tagging any state variable is presented. This generalized tagging method results from a sensitivity analysis of the forcing terms of the right hand side of the governing differential equations. In a couple of examples, the consistency with previous approaches is shown. Since the method is based on a ratio describing relative sensitivities, singularities occur where the method is not applicable. For some applications, like in atmospheric chemistry, these singularities can easily be removed. However, one theoretical example is given, where this method is not applicable at all.

Description: Technical Note: Improving computational efficiency in large linear inverse problems: an example from carbon dioxide flux estimation Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 3325-3342, 2012 Author(s): V. Yadav and A. M. Michalak Addressing a variety of questions within Earth science disciplines entails the inference of the spatio-temporal distribution of parameters of interest based on observations of related quantities. Such estimation problems often represent inverse problems that are formulated as linear optimization problems. Computational limitations arise when the number of observations and/or the size of the discretized state space become large, especially if the inverse problem is formulated in a probabilistic framework and therefore aims to assess the uncertainty associated with the estimates. This work proposes two approaches to lower the computational costs and memory requirements for large linear space-time inverse problems, taking the Bayesian approach for estimating carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and uptake (a.k.a. fluxes) as a prototypical example. The first algorithm can be used to efficiently multiply two matrices, as long as one can be expressed as a Kronecker product of two smaller matrices, a condition that is typical when multiplying a sensitivity matrix by a covariance matrix in the solution of inverse problems. The second algorithm can be used to compute a posteriori uncertainties directly at aggregated spatio-temporal scales, which are the scales of most interest in many inverse problems. Both algorithms have significantly lower memory requirements and computational complexity relative to direct computation of the same quantities (O( n 2.5 ) vs. O( n 3 )). For an examined benchmark problem, the two algorithms yielded a three and six order of magnitude increase in computational efficiency, respectively, relative to direct computation of the same quantities. Sample computer code is provided for assessing the computational and memory efficiency of the proposed algorithms for matrices of different dimensions.

Description: Geomorphic hazards and intense rainfall: the case study of the Recco Stream catchment (Eastern Liguria, Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 893-903, 2012 Author(s): F. Faccini, A. Robbiano, and A. Sacchini A critical pluviometric event occurred in the central-eastern Ligurian Riviera, 15 km from Genoa, on 1 June 2007. This event caused landslides and hydraulic problems between Sori and Camogli and in the inland area of the Recco Valley. An analysis of the heavy rainfall was conducted. Hourly precipitation data revealed a critical event between 04:00 a.m. and 07:00 a.m. local time, with more than 220 mm of precipitation over three hours. Slope movements were mainly debris flows that detached from the lateral valleys of the Recco Stream catchment and from well-maintained, wooded slopes that were also characterised by cultivated terraces. Numerous slide planes corresponded to the interface between the surface cover and the underlying bedrock, which presents an unfavourable geologic structure in terms of stability assessment. In most cases, the displaced material had a limited thickness. Debris cover was rapidly channelled along small valleys, which controlled the critical hydraulic conditions in the secondary drainage network. Man-made drainage systems were partially or totally blocked in a very short time and, like the natural watercourses, accumulated thick and extensive alluvial fans. Most of the instability phenomena occurred in areas that had been designated medium or low-risk areas during land planning, and in sectors that were defined as stable, because they lacked geomorphic indicators connected to landslide risks. The above considerations highlight some gaps of the Recco Stream Master Plan. Therefore, to update this land planning tool, it is necessary to extensively investigate local geomorphological characteristics and to adopt a different method for assigning weights to the geohazard maps.

Description: Quality assessment concept of the World Data Center for Climate and its application to CMIP5 data Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5, 781-802, 2012 Author(s): M. Stockhause, H. Höck, F. Toussaint, and M. Lautenschlager The preservation of data in a high state of quality and suitable for interdisciplinary use is one of the most pressing and challenging current issues in long-term archiving. For high volume data such as climate model data, the data and data replica are no longer stored centrally but distributed over several local data repositories, e.g. the data of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project No. 5 (CMIP5). The most important part of the data is to be published as DOI according to the World Data Center for Climate's (WDCC) application of the DataCite regulations. The integrated part of WDCC's data publication process, the data quality assessment, was adapted to the requirements of a federated data infrastructure. A concept of a distributed and federated quality assessment procedure was developed, in which the work load and responsibility for quality control is shared between the three primary CMIP5 data centers: Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC), and WDCC. This distributed quality control concept, its pilot implementation for CMIP5, and first experiences are presented.

Description: Lightning activity, rainfall and flash flooding – occasional or interrelated events? A case study in the island of Crete Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 881-891, 2012 Author(s): A. G. Koutroulis, M. G. Grillakis, I. K. Tsanis, V. Kotroni, and K. Lagouvardos The majority of cyclones passing over Crete in late autumn to early winter originate from southwest, west and northwest and are of varying size and intensity. A number of these cyclones cause flash floods. The present study reports the possible relationships between lighting activity and high precipitation related to flash flood events. In this study an attempt was made to correlate the lightning number and location, recorded by the ZEUS lightning detection system, with the rainfall characteristics for sixteen rain events (4 flood and 12 non-flood events) on the island of Crete, during the period 2008–2009. Spatiotemporal analysis of rain and rain rate with flash count was performed with respect to distance (radius) of flashes from raingauge location at various temporal scales, in order to examine the correlation of accumulated rainfall and lightning activity. The maximum attained statistical significant correlation was obtained within a circular area of an average radius of 15 km around the raingauge, and an average time lag of flash count prior precipitation accumulation of 15 min. The maximum correlation between the lightning and rainfall data is obtained for shorter time lags for the flood events (15 min) than the non-flood events (25 min), that could reflect the faster propagation of flood triggering storms due to high convective activity. Results show increased lightning activity occurring during flood triggering storms, by an average of four times higher. Furthermore, there is evidence that the number of flashes that occur during a precipitation event is related to precipitation depth when the latter is adequate to produce a flood event. Differences between flood and non-flood producing storms need to be further assessed by analyzing more independent parameters, including the synoptic conditions and dominant flash flood hydrological generating processes.

Description: Detailed rock failure susceptibility mapping in steep rocky coasts by means of non-contact geostructural surveys: the case study of the Tigullio Gulf (Eastern Liguria, Northern Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 867-880, 2012 Author(s): P. De Vita, A. Cevasco, and C. Cavallo In this study, an engineering geological analysis for the assessment of the rock failure susceptibility of a high, steep, rocky coast was developed by means of non-contact geostructural surveys. The methodology was applied to a 6-km coastal cliff located in the Gulf of Tigullio (Northern Tyrrhenian Sea) between Rapallo and Chiavari. The method is based on the geostructural characterisation of outcropping rock masses through meso- and macroscale stereoscopic analyses of digital photos that were taken continuously from a known distance from the coastline. The results of the method were verified through direct surveys of accessible sample areas. The rock failure susceptibility of the coastal sector was assessed by analysing the fundamental rock slope mechanisms of instability and the results were implemented into a Geographic Information System (GIS). The proposed method is useful for rock failure susceptibility assessments in high, steep, rocky coastal areas, where accessibility is limited due to cliffs or steep slopes. Moreover, the method can be applied to private properties or any other area where a complete and systematic analysis of rock mass structural features cannot be achieved. Compared to direct surveys and to other non-contact methods based on digital terrestrial photogrammetry, the proposed procedure provided good quality data of the structural features of the rock mass at a low cost. Therefore, the method could be applied to similar coastal areas with a high risk of rock failure occurrence.

Description: Geo-hydrological risk management for civil protection purposes in the urban area of Genoa (Liguria, NW Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12, 943-959, 2012 Author(s): P. Brandolini, A. Cevasco, M. Firpo, A. Robbiano, and A. Sacchini Over the past century the municipal area of Genoa has been affected by recurring flood events and several landslides that have caused severe damage to urbanized areas on both the coastal-fluvial plains and surrounding slopes, sometimes involving human casualties. The analysis of past events' annual distribution indicates that these phenomena have occurred with rising frequency in the last seventy years, following the main land use change due to the development of harbour, industrial, and residential areas, which has strongly impacted geomorphological processes. Consequently, in Genoa, civil protection activities are taking on an increasing importance for geo-hydrological risk mitigation. The current legislative framework assigns a key role in disaster prevention to municipalities, emergency plan development, as well as response action coordination in disaster situations. In view of the geomorphological and environmental complexity of the study area and referring to environmental laws, geo-hydrological risk mitigation strategies adopted by local administrators for civil protection purposes are presented as examples of current land/urban management related to geo-hydrological hazards. Adopted measures have proven to be effective on several levels (planning, management, structure, understanding, and publication) in different cases. Nevertheless, the last flooding event (4 November 2011) has shown that communication and public information concerning the perception of geo-hydrological hazard can be improved.