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  • Articles  (3,785)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2020-08-26
    Description: Wetlands are the largest and most uncertain natural sources of atmospheric methane (CH4). Several process-based models have been developed to quantify the magnitude and estimate spatial and temporal variations in CH4 emissions from global wetlands. Reliable models are required to estimate global wetland CH4 emissions. This study aimed to test two process-based models, CH4MODwetland and Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), against the CH4 flux measurements of marsh, swamp, peatland and coastal wetland sites across the world; specifically, model accuracy and generality were evaluated for different wetland types and in different continents, and then the global CH4 emissions from 2000 to 2010 were estimated. Both models showed similar high correlations with the observed seasonal/annual total CH4 emissions, and the regression of the observed versus computed total seasonal/annual CH4 emissions resulted in R2 values of 0.81 and 0.68 for CH4MODwetland and TEM, respectively. The CH4MODwetland produced accurate predictions for marshes, peatlands, swamps and coastal wetlands, with model efficiency (EF) values of 0.22, 0.52, 0.13 and 0.72, respectively. TEM produced good predictions for peatlands and swamps, with EF values of 0.69 and 0.74, respectively, but it could not accurately simulate marshes and coastal wetlands (EF 
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2020-07-21
    Description: We develop a new large-scale hydrological and water resources model, the Community Water Model (CWatM), which can simulate hydrology both globally and regionally at different resolutions from 30 arcmin to 30 arcsec at daily time steps. CWatM is open source in the Python programming environment and has a modular structure. It uses global, freely available data in the netCDF4 file format for reading, storage, and production of data in a compact way. CWatM includes general surface and groundwater hydrological processes but also takes into account human activities, such as water use and reservoir regulation, by calculating water demands, water use, and return flows. Reservoirs and lakes are included in the model scheme. CWatM is used in the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which compares global model outputs. The flexible model structure allows for dynamic interaction with hydro-economic and water quality models for the assessment and evaluation of water management options. Furthermore, the novelty of CWatM is its combination of state-of-the-art hydrological modeling, modular programming, an online user manual and automatic source code documentation, global and regional assessments at different spatial resolutions, and a potential community to add to, change, and expand the open-source project. CWatM also strives to build a community learning environment which is able to freely use an open-source hydrological model and flexible coupling possibilities to other sectoral models, such as energy and agriculture.
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-08-31
    Description: Landslides are the main source of sediment in most mountain ranges. Rivers then act as conveyor belts, evacuating landslide-derived sediment. Sediment dynamics are known to influence landscape evolution through interactions among landslide sediment delivery, fluvial transport and river incision into bedrock. Sediment delivery and its interaction with river incision therefore control the pace of landscape evolution and mediate relationships among tectonics, climate and erosion. Numerical landscape evolution models (LEMs) are well suited to study the interactions among these surface processes. They enable evaluation of a range of hypotheses at varying temporal and spatial scales. While many models have been used to study the dynamic interplay between tectonics, erosion and climate, the role of interactions between landslide-derived sediment and river incision has received much less attention. Here, we present HyLands, a hybrid landscape evolution model integrated within the TopoToolbox Landscape Evolution Model (TTLEM) framework. The hybrid nature of the model lies in its capacity to simulate both erosion and deposition at any place in the landscape due to fluvial bedrock incision, sediment transport, and rapid, stochastic mass wasting through landsliding. Fluvial sediment transport and bedrock incision are calculated using the recently developed Stream Power with Alluvium Conservation and Entrainment (SPACE) model. Therefore, rivers can dynamically transition from detachment-limited to transport-limited and from bedrock to bedrock–alluvial to fully alluviated states. Erosion and sediment production by landsliding are calculated using a Mohr–Coulomb stability analysis, while landslide-derived sediment is routed and deposited using a multiple-flow-direction, nonlinear deposition method. We describe and evaluate the HyLands 1.0 model using analytical solutions and observations. We first illustrate the functionality of HyLands to capture river dynamics ranging from detachment-limited to transport-limited conditions. Second, we apply the model to a portion of the Namche Barwa massif in eastern Tibet and compare simulated and observed landslide magnitude–frequency and area–volume scaling relationships. Finally, we illustrate the relevance of explicitly simulating landsliding and sediment dynamics over longer timescales for landscape evolution in general and river dynamics in particular. With HyLands we provide a new tool to understand both the long- and short-term coupling between stochastic hillslope processes, river incision and source-to-sink sediment dynamics.
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2020-08-31
    Description: Chemistry plays an indispensable role in investigations of the atmosphere; however, many climate models either ignore or greatly simplify atmospheric chemistry, limiting both their accuracy and their scope. We present the development and evaluation of the online global atmospheric chemical model BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0, coupling the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM) as an atmospheric chemistry component in the Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model (BCC-AGCM). The GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry component includes detailed tropospheric HOx–NOx–volatile organic compounds–ozone–bromine–aerosol chemistry and online dry and wet deposition schemes. We then demonstrate the new capabilities of BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0 relative to the base BCC-AGCM model through a 3-year (2012–2014) simulation with anthropogenic emissions from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The model captures well the spatial distributions and seasonal variations in tropospheric ozone, with seasonal mean biases of 0.4–2.2 ppbv at 700–400 hPa compared to satellite observations and within 10 ppbv at the surface to 500 hPa compared to global ozonesonde observations. The model has larger high-ozone biases over the tropics which we attribute to an overestimate of ozone chemical production. It underestimates ozone in the upper troposphere which is likely due either to the use of a simplified stratospheric ozone scheme or to biases in estimated stratosphere–troposphere exchange dynamics. The model diagnoses the global tropospheric ozone burden, OH concentration, and methane chemical lifetime to be 336 Tg, 1.16×106 molecule cm−3, and 8.3 years, respectively, which is consistent with recent multimodel assessments. The spatiotemporal distributions of NO2, CO, SO2, CH2O, and aerosol optical depth are generally in agreement with satellite observations. The development of BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0 represents an important step for the development of fully coupled earth system models (ESMs) in China.
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2020-07-16
    Description: We developed the WRF-GC model, an online coupling of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale meteorological model and the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model, for regional atmospheric chemistry and air quality modeling. WRF and GEOS-Chem are both open-source community models. WRF-GC offers regional modellers access to the latest GEOS-Chem chemical module, which is state of the science, well documented, traceable, benchmarked, actively developed by a large international user base, and centrally managed by a dedicated support team. At the same time, WRF-GC enables GEOS-Chem users to perform high-resolution forecasts and hindcasts for any region and time of interest. WRF-GC uses unmodified copies of WRF and GEOS-Chem from their respective sources; the coupling structure allows future versions of either one of the two parent models to be integrated into WRF-GC with relative ease. Within WRF-GC, the physical and chemical state variables are managed in distributed memory and translated between WRF and GEOS-Chem by the WRF-GC coupler at runtime. We used the WRF-GC model to simulate surface PM2.5 concentrations over China during 22 to 27 January 2015 and compared the results to surface observations and the outcomes from a GEOS-Chem Classic nested-China simulation. Both models were able to reproduce the observed spatiotemporal variations of regional PM2.5, but the WRF-GC model (r=0.68, bias =29 %) reproduced the observed daily PM2.5 concentrations over eastern China better than the GEOS-Chem Classic model did (r=0.72, bias =55 %). This was because the WRF-GC simulation, nudged with surface and upper-level meteorological observations, was able to better represent the pollution meteorology during the study period. The WRF-GC model is parallelized across computational cores and scales well on massively parallel architectures. In our tests where the two models were similarly configured, the WRF-GC simulation was 3 times more efficient than the GEOS-Chem Classic nested-grid simulation due to the efficient transport algorithm and the Message Passing Interface (MPI)-based parallelization provided by the WRF software framework. WRF-GC v1.0 supports one-way coupling only, using WRF-simulated meteorological fields to drive GEOS-Chem with no chemical feedbacks. The development of two-way coupling capabilities, i.e., the ability to simulate radiative and microphysical feedbacks of chemistry to meteorology, is under way. The WRF-GC model is open source and freely available from http://wrf.geos-chem.org (last access: 10 July 2020).
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2020-07-08
    Description: Biomass burning emissions are a major source of trace gases and aerosols. Wildfires being highly variable in time and space, calculating emissions requires a numerical tool able to estimate fluxes at the kilometer scale and with an hourly time step. Here, the APIFLAME model version 2.0 is presented. It is structured to be modular in terms of input databases and processing methods. The main evolution compared to version 1.0 is the possibility of merging burned area and fire radiative power (FRP) satellite observations to modulate the temporal variations of fire emissions and to integrate small fires that may not be detected in the burned area product. Accounting for possible missed detection due to small fire results in an increase in burned area ranging from ∼5 % in Africa and Australia to ∼30 % in North America on average over the 2013–2017 time period based on the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 fire products. An illustration for the case of southwestern Europe during the summer of 2016, marked by large wildfires in Portugal, is presented. Emissions calculated using different possible configurations of APIFLAME show a dispersion of 80 % on average over the domain during the largest wildfires (8–14 August 2016), which can be considered as an estimate of uncertainty of emissions. The main sources of uncertainty studied, by order of importance, are the emission factors, the calculation of the burned area, and the vegetation attribution. The aerosol (PM10) and carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations simulated with the CHIMERE regional chemistry transport model (CTM) are consistent with observations (good timing for the beginning and end of the events, ±1 d for the timing of the peak values) but tend to be overestimated compared to observations at surface stations. On the contrary, vertically integrated concentrations tend to be underestimated compared to satellite observations of total column CO by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) instrument and aerosol optical depth (AOD) by MODIS. This underestimate is lower close to the fire region (5 %–40 % for AOD depending on the configuration and 8 %–18 % for total CO) but rapidly increases downwind. For all comparisons, better agreement is achieved when emissions are injected higher into the free troposphere using a vertical profile as estimated from observations of aerosol plume height by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) satellite instrument (injection up to 4 km). Comparisons of aerosol layer heights to observations by the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) show that some parts of the plume may still be transported at too low an altitude. The comparisons of the different CTM simulations to observations point to uncertainties not only on emissions (total mass and daily variability) but also on the simulation of their transport with the CTM and mixing with other sources. Considering the uncertainty of the emission injection profile and of the modeling of the transport of these dense plumes, it is difficult to fully validate emissions through comparisons between model simulations and atmospheric observations.
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2020-07-08
    Description: Based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)-generation previous Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) Earth system model, we designed a new version, IPSL-CM5A2, aiming at running multi-millennial simulations typical of deep-time paleoclimate studies. Three priorities were followed during the setup of the model: (1) improving the overall model computing performance, (2) overcoming a persistent cold bias depicted in the previous model generation and (3) making the model able to handle the specific continental configurations of the geological past. These developments include the integration of hybrid parallelization Message Passing Interface – Open Multi-Processing (MPI-OpenMP) in the atmospheric model of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMDZ), the use of a new library to perform parallel asynchronous input/output by using computing cores as “I/O servers” and the use of a parallel coupling library between the ocean and the atmospheric components. The model, which runs with an atmospheric resolution of 3.75∘×1.875∘ and 2 to 0.5∘ in the ocean, can now simulate ∼100 years per day, opening new possibilities towards the production of multi-millennial simulations with a full Earth system model. The tuning strategy employed to overcome a persistent cold bias is detailed. The confrontation of a historical simulation to climatological observations shows overall improved ocean meridional overturning circulation, marine productivity and latitudinal position of zonal wind patterns. We also present the numerous steps required to run IPSL-CM5A2 for deep-time paleoclimates through a preliminary case study for the Cretaceous. Namely, specific work on the ocean model grid was required to run the model for specific continental configurations in which continents are relocated according to past paleogeographic reconstructions. By briefly discussing the spin-up of such a simulation, we elaborate on the requirements and challenges awaiting paleoclimate modeling in the next years, namely finding the best trade-off between the level of description of the processes and the computing cost on supercomputers.
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2020-07-09
    Description: In the frame of the project “MOSAIK – Model-based city planning and application in climate change”, a German-wide research project within the call “Urban Climate Under Change” ([UC]2) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), a biometeorology module was implemented into the Parallelized Large-Eddy Simulation Model (PALM) system. The new biometeorology module is comprised of methods for the calculation of UV-exposure quantities, a human–biometeorologically weighted mean radiant temperature (Tmrt), as well as for the estimation of human thermal comfort or stress. The latter is achieved through the implementation of the three widely used thermal indices: perceived temperature (PT), Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), as well as physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). Comparison calculations were performed for the PT, UTCI and PET indices based on the SkyHelios model and showing PALM calculates higher values in general. This is mostly due to a higher radiational gain leading to higher values of mean radiant temperature. For a more direct comparison, the PT, PET and UTCI indices were calculated by the biometeorology module, as well as the programs provided by the attachment to Verein Deutscher Ingenieure (VDI) guideline 3787, as well as by the RayMan model based on the very same input dataset. Results show deviations below the relevant precision of 0.1 K for PET and UTCI and some deviations of up to 2.683 K for PT caused by repeated unfavorable rounding in very rare cases (0.027 %).
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2020-07-08
    Description: The complex and computationally expensive nature of landscape evolution models poses significant challenges to the inference and optimization of unknown model parameters. Bayesian inference provides a methodology for estimation and uncertainty quantification of unknown model parameters. In our previous work, we developed parallel tempering Bayeslands as a framework for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification for the Badlands landscape evolution model. Parallel tempering Bayeslands features high-performance computing that can feature dozens of processing cores running in parallel to enhance computational efficiency. Nevertheless, the procedure remains computationally challenging since thousands of samples need to be drawn and evaluated. In large-scale landscape evolution problems, a single model evaluation can take from several minutes to hours and in some instances, even days or weeks. Surrogate-assisted optimization has been used for several computationally expensive engineering problems which motivate its use in optimization and inference of complex geoscientific models. The use of surrogate models can speed up parallel tempering Bayeslands by developing computationally inexpensive models to mimic expensive ones. In this paper, we apply surrogate-assisted parallel tempering where the surrogate mimics a landscape evolution model by estimating the likelihood function from the model. We employ a neural-network-based surrogate model that learns from the history of samples generated. The entire framework is developed in a parallel computing infrastructure to take advantage of parallelism. The results show that the proposed methodology is effective in lowering the computational cost significantly while retaining the quality of model predictions.
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2020-07-10
    Description: This paper describes the implementation of a coupling between a three-dimensional ocean general circulation model (NEMO) and a wave model (WW3) to represent the interactions of upper-oceanic flow dynamics with surface waves. The focus is on the impact of such coupling on upper-ocean properties (temperature and currents) and mixed layer depth (MLD) at global eddying scales. A generic coupling interface has been developed, and the NEMO governing equations and boundary conditions have been adapted to include wave-induced terms following the approach of McWilliams et al. (2004) and Ardhuin et al. (2008). In particular, the contributions of Stokes–Coriolis, vortex, and surface pressure forces have been implemented on top of the necessary modifications of the tracer–continuity equation and turbulent closure scheme (a one-equation turbulent kinetic energy – TKE – closure here). To assess the new developments, we perform a set of sensitivity experiments with a global oceanic configuration at 1/4∘ resolution coupled with a wave model configured at 1/2∘ resolution. Numerical simulations show a global increase in wind stress due to the interaction with waves (via the Charnock coefficient), particularly at high latitudes, resulting in increased surface currents. The modifications brought to the TKE closure scheme and the inclusion of a parameterization for Langmuir turbulence lead to a significant increase in the mixing, thus helping to deepen the MLD. This deepening is mainly located in the Southern Hemisphere and results in reduced sea surface currents and temperatures.
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2020-07-10
    Description: Fires affect the composition of the atmosphere and Earth's radiation balance by emitting a suite of reactive gases and particles. An interactive fire module in an Earth system model (ESM) allows us to study the natural and anthropogenic drivers, feedbacks, and interactions of open fires. To do so, we have developed pyrE, the NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) interactive fire emissions module. The pyrE module is driven by environmental variables like flammability and cloud-to-ground lightning, calculated by the GISS ModelE ESM, and parameterized by anthropogenic impacts based on population density data. Fire emissions are generated from the flaming phase in pyrE (active fires). Using pyrE, we examine fire occurrence, regional fire suppression, burned area, fire emissions, and how it all affects atmospheric composition. To do so, we evaluate pyrE by comparing it to satellite-based datasets of fire count, burned area, fire emissions, and aerosol optical depth (AOD). We demonstrate pyrE's ability to simulate the daily and seasonal cycles of open fires and resulting emissions. Our results indicate that interactive fire emissions are biased low by 32 %–42 %, depending on emitted species, compared to the GFED4s (Global Fire Emissions Database) inventory. The bias in emissions drives underestimation in column densities, which is diluted by natural and anthropogenic emissions sources and production and loss mechanisms. Regionally, the resulting AOD of a simulation with interactive fire emissions is underestimated mostly over Indonesia compared to a simulation with GFED4s emissions and to MODIS AOD. In other parts of the world pyrE's performance in terms of AOD is marginal to a simulation with prescribed fire emissions.
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2020-07-07
    Description: The Observations for Model Intercomparison Project (Obs4MIPs) was initiated in 2010 to facilitate the use of observations in climate model evaluation and research, with a particular target being the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), a major initiative of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). To this end, Obs4MIPs (1) targets observed variables that can be compared to CMIP model variables; (2) utilizes dataset formatting specifications and metadata requirements closely aligned with CMIP model output; (3) provides brief technical documentation for each dataset, designed for nonexperts and tailored towards relevance for model evaluation, including information on uncertainty, dataset merits, and limitations; and (4) disseminates the data through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) platforms, making the observations searchable and accessible via the same portals as the model output. Taken together, these characteristics of the organization and structure of obs4MIPs should entice a more diverse community of researchers to engage in the comparison of model output with observations and to contribute to a more comprehensive evaluation of the climate models. At present, the number of obs4MIPs datasets has grown to about 80; many are undergoing updates, with another 20 or so in preparation, and more than 100 are proposed and under consideration. A partial list of current global satellite-based datasets includes humidity and temperature profiles; a wide range of cloud and aerosol observations; ocean surface wind, temperature, height, and sea ice fraction; surface and top-of-atmosphere longwave and shortwave radiation; and ozone (O3), methane (CH4), and carbon dioxide (CO2) products. A partial list of proposed products expected to be useful in analyzing CMIP6 results includes the following: alternative products for the above quantities, additional products for ocean surface flux and chlorophyll products, a number of vegetation products (e.g., FAPAR, LAI, burned area fraction), ice sheet mass and height, carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). While most existing obs4MIPs datasets consist of monthly-mean gridded data over the global domain, products with higher time resolution (e.g., daily) and/or regional products are now receiving more attention. Along with an increasing number of datasets, obs4MIPs has implemented a number of capability upgrades including (1) an updated obs4MIPs data specifications document that provides additional search facets and generally improves congruence with CMIP6 specifications for model datasets, (2) a set of six easily understood indicators that help guide users as to a dataset's maturity and suitability for application, and (3) an option to supply supplemental information about a dataset beyond what can be found in the standard metadata. With the maturation of the obs4MIPs framework, the dataset inclusion process, and the dataset formatting guidelines and resources, the scope of the observations being considered is expected to grow to include gridded in situ datasets as well as datasets with a regional focus, and the ultimate intent is to judiciously expand this scope to any observation dataset that has applicability for evaluation of the types of Earth system models used in CMIP.
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2020-08-31
    Description: The GEOS-Chem simulation of atmospheric CH4 was evaluated against observations from the Thermal and Near Infrared Sensor for Carbon Observations Fourier Transform Spectrometer (TANSO-FTS) on the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), and the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). We focused on the model simulations at the 4∘×5∘ and 2∘×2.5∘ horizontal resolutions for the period of February–May 2010. Compared to the GOSAT, TCCON, and ACE-FTS data, we found that the 2∘×2.5∘ model produced a better simulation of CH4, with smaller biases and a higher correlation to the independent data. We found large resolution-dependent differences such as a latitude-dependent XCH4 bias, with higher column abundances of CH4 at high latitudes and lower abundances at low latitudes at the 4∘×5∘ resolution than at 2∘×2.5∘. We also found large differences in CH4 column abundances between the two resolutions over major source regions such as China. These differences resulted in up to 30 % differences in inferred regional CH4 emission estimates from the two model resolutions. We performed several experiments using 222Rn, 7Be, and CH4 to determine the origins of the resolution-dependent errors. The results suggested that the major source of the latitude-dependent errors is excessive mixing in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, including mixing at the edge of the polar vortex, which is pronounced at the 4∘×5∘ resolution. At the coarser resolution, there is weakened vertical transport in the troposphere at midlatitudes to high latitudes due to the loss of sub-grid tracer eddy mass flux in the storm track regions. The vertical air mass fluxes are calculated in the model from the degraded coarse-resolution wind fields and the model does not conserve the air mass flux between model resolutions; as a result, the low resolution does not fully capture the vertical transport. This produces significant localized discrepancies, such as much greater CH4 abundances in the lower troposphere over China at 4∘×5∘ than at 2∘×2.5∘. Although we found that the CH4 simulation is significantly better at 2∘×2.5∘ than at 4∘×5∘, biases may still be present at 2∘×2.5∘ resolution. Their importance, particularly in regards to inverse modeling of CH4 emissions, should be evaluated in future studies using online transport in the native general circulation model as a benchmark simulation.
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2020-06-30
    Description: Wet processes, including aqueous-phase chemistry, wet scavenging, and wet surface uptake during dry deposition, are important for global modeling of aerosols and aerosol precursors. In this study, we improve the treatments of these wet processes in the Goddard Earth Observing System with chemistry (GEOS-Chem) v12.6.0, including pH calculations for cloud, rain, and wet surfaces, the fraction of cloud available for aqueous-phase chemistry, rainout efficiencies for various types of clouds, empirical washout by rain and snow, and wet surface uptake during dry deposition. We compare simulated surface mass concentrations of aerosols and aerosol precursors with surface monitoring networks over the United States, European, Asian, and Arctic regions, and show that model results with updated wet processes agree better with measurements for most species. With the implementation of these updates, normalized mean biases (NMBs) of surface nitric acid, nitrate, and ammonium are reduced from 78 %, 126 %, and 45 % to 0.9 %, 15 %, and 4.1 % over the US sites, from 107 %, 127 %, and 90 % to −0.7 %, 4.2 %, and 16 % over European sites, and from 121 %, 269 %, and 167 % to −21 %, 37 %, and 86 % over Asian remote region sites. Comparison with surface measured SO2, sulfate, and black carbon at four Arctic sites indicated that those species simulated with the updated wet processes match well with observations except for a large underestimate of black carbon at one of the sites. We also compare our model simulation with aircraft measurement of nitric acid and aerosols during the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom)-1 and ATom-2 periods and found a significant improvement of modeling skill of nitric acid, sulfate, and ammonium in the Northern Hemisphere during wintertime. The NMBs of these species are reduced from 163 %, 78 %, and 217 % to −13 %, −1 %, and 10 %, respectively. The investigation of impacts of updated wet process treatments on surface mass concentrations indicated that the updated wet processes have strong impacts on the global means of nitric acid, sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium and relative small impacts on the global means of sulfur dioxide, dust, sea salt, black carbon, and organic carbon.
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2020-07-02
    Description: We present the development of a multiphase adjoint for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, a widely used chemical transport model. The adjoint model provides location- and time-specific gradients that can be used in various applications such as backward sensitivity analysis, source attribution, optimal pollution control, data assimilation, and inverse modeling. The science processes of the CMAQ model include gas-phase chemistry, aerosol dynamics and thermodynamics, cloud chemistry and dynamics, diffusion, and advection. Discrete adjoints are implemented for all the science processes, with an additional continuous adjoint for advection. The development of discrete adjoints is assisted with algorithmic differentiation (AD) tools. Particularly, the Kinetic PreProcessor (KPP) is implemented for gas-phase and aqueous chemistry, and two different automatic differentiation tools are used for other processes such as clouds, aerosols, diffusion, and advection. The continuous adjoint of advection is developed manually. For adjoint validation, the brute-force or finite-difference method (FDM) is implemented process by process with box- or column-model simulations. Due to the inherent limitations of the FDM caused by numerical round-off errors, the complex variable method (CVM) is adopted where necessary. The adjoint model often shows better agreement with the CVM than with the FDM. The adjoints of all science processes compare favorably with the FDM and CVM. In an example application of the full multiphase adjoint model, we provide the first estimates of how emissions of particulate matter (PM2.5) affect public health across the US.
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2015-08-05
    Description: A two-layer canopy model with thermal inertia for an improved snowpack energy balance below needleleaf forest (model SNOWPACK, version 3.2.1, revision 741) Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 2379-2398, 2015 Author(s): I. Gouttevin, M. Lehning, T. Jonas, D. Gustafsson, and M. Mölder A new, two-layer canopy module with thermal inertia as part of the detailed snow model SNOWPACK (version 3.2.1) is presented and evaluated. As a by-product of these new developments, an exhaustive description of the canopy module of the SNOWPACK model is provided, thereby filling a gap in the existing literature. In its current form, the two-layer canopy module is suited for evergreen needleleaf forest, with or without snow cover. It is designed to reproduce the difference in thermal response between leafy and woody canopy elements, and their impact on the underlying snowpack or ground surface energy balance. Given the number of processes resolved, the SNOWPACK model with its enhanced canopy module constitutes a sophisticated physics-based modeling chain of the continuum going from atmosphere to soil through the canopy and snow. Comparisons of modeled sub-canopy thermal radiation to stand-scale observations at an Alpine site (Alptal, Switzerland) demonstrate improvements induced by the new canopy module. Both thermal heat mass and the two-layer canopy formulation contribute to reduce the daily amplitude of the modeled canopy temperature signal, in agreement with observations. Particularly striking is the attenuation of the nighttime drop in canopy temperature, which was a key model bias. We specifically show that a single-layered canopy model is unable to produce this limited temperature drop correctly. The impact of the new parameterizations on the modeled dynamics of the sub-canopy snowpack is analyzed. The new canopy module yields consistent results but the frequent occurrence of mixed-precipitation events at Alptal prevents a conclusive assessment of model performance against snow data. The new model is also successfully tested without specific tuning against measured tree temperature and biomass heat-storage fluxes at the boreal site of Norunda (Sweden). This provides an independent assessment of its physical consistency and stresses the robustness and transferability of the chosen parameterizations. The SNOWPACK code including the new canopy module, is available under Gnu General Public License (GPL) license and upon creation of an account at https://models.slf.ch/ .
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2015-08-25
    Description: Methods for automatized detection of rapid changes in lateral boundary condition fields for NWP limited area models Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 2627-2643, 2015 Author(s): M. Tudor Three-hourly temporal resolution of lateral boundary data for limited area models (LAMs) can be too infrequent to resolve rapidly moving storms. This problem is expected to be worse with increasing horizontal resolution. In order to detect intensive disturbances in surface pressure moving rapidly through the model domain, a filtered surface pressure field (MCUF) is computed operationally in the ARPEGE global model of Météo France. The field is distributed in the coupling files along with conventional meteorological fields used for lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for the operational forecast using limited area model ALADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational) in the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia (DHMZ). Here an analysis is performed of the MCUF field for the LACE coupling domain for the period from 23 January 2006, when it became available, until 15 November 2014. The MCUF field is a good indicator of rapidly moving pressure disturbances (RMPDs). Its spatial and temporal distribution can be associated with the usual cyclone tracks and areas known to be supporting cyclogenesis. An alternative set of coupling files from the IFS operational run in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is also available operationally in DHMZ with 3-hourly temporal resolution, but the MCUF field is not available. Here, several methods are tested that detect RMPDs in surface pressure a posteriori from the IFS model fields provided in the coupling files. MCUF is computed by running ALADIN on the coupling files from IFS. The error function is computed using one-time-step integration of ALADIN on the coupling files without initialization, initialized with digital filter initialization (DFI) or scale-selective DFI (SSDFI). Finally, the amplitude of changes in the mean sea level pressure is computed from the fields in the coupling files. The results are compared to the MCUF field of ARPEGE and the results of same methods applied to the coupling files from ARPEGE. Most methods give a signal for the RMPDs, but DFI reduces the storms too much to be detected. The error functions without filtering and amplitude have more noise, but the signal of a RMPD is also stronger. The methods are tested for NWP LAM ALADIN, but could be applied to other LAMs and benefit the performance of climate LAMs.
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2015-08-14
    Description: PISCES-v2: an ocean biogeochemical model for carbon and ecosystem studies Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 2465-2513, 2015 Author(s): O. Aumont, C. Ethé, A. Tagliabue, L. Bopp, and M. Gehlen PISCES-v2 (Pelagic Interactions Scheme for Carbon and Ecosystem Studies volume 2) is a biogeochemical model which simulates the lower trophic levels of marine ecosystems (phytoplankton, microzooplankton and mesozooplankton) and the biogeochemical cycles of carbon and of the main nutrients (P, N, Fe, and Si). The model is intended to be used for both regional and global configurations at high or low spatial resolutions as well as for short-term (seasonal, interannual) and long-term (climate change, paleoceanography) analyses. There are 24 prognostic variables (tracers) including two phytoplankton compartments (diatoms and nanophytoplankton), two zooplankton size classes (microzooplankton and mesozooplankton) and a description of the carbonate chemistry. Formulations in PISCES-v2 are based on a mixed Monod–quota formalism. On the one hand, stoichiometry of C / N / P is fixed and growth rate of phytoplankton is limited by the external availability in N, P and Si. On the other hand, the iron and silicon quotas are variable and the growth rate of phytoplankton is limited by the internal availability in Fe. Various parameterizations can be activated in PISCES-v2, setting, for instance, the complexity of iron chemistry or the description of particulate organic materials. So far, PISCES-v2 has been coupled to the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) systems. A full description of PISCES-v2 and of its optional functionalities is provided here. The results of a quasi-steady-state simulation are presented and evaluated against diverse observational and satellite-derived data. Finally, some of the new functionalities of PISCES-v2 are tested in a series of sensitivity experiments.
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2015-08-06
    Description: Carbon isotopes in the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 2419-2434, 2015 Author(s): A. Jahn, K. Lindsay, X. Giraud, N. Gruber, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, Z. Liu, and E. C. Brady Carbon isotopes in the ocean are frequently used as paleoclimate proxies and as present-day geochemical ocean tracers. In order to allow a more direct comparison of climate model results with this large and currently underutilized data set, we added a carbon isotope module to the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), containing the cycling of the stable isotope 13 C and the radioactive isotope 14 C. We implemented the 14 C tracer in two ways: in the "abiotic" case, the 14 C tracer is only subject to air–sea gas exchange, physical transport, and radioactive decay, while in the "biotic" version, the 14 C additionally follows the 13 C tracer through all biogeochemical and ecological processes. Thus, the abiotic 14 C tracer can be run without the ecosystem module, requiring significantly fewer computational resources. The carbon isotope module calculates the carbon isotopic fractionation during gas exchange, photosynthesis, and calcium carbonate formation, while any subsequent biological process such as remineralization as well as any external inputs are assumed to occur without fractionation. Given the uncertainty associated with the biological fractionation during photosynthesis, we implemented and tested three parameterizations of different complexity. Compared to present-day observations, the model is able to simulate the oceanic 14 C bomb uptake and the 13 C Suess effect reasonably well compared to observations and other model studies. At the same time, the carbon isotopes reveal biases in the physical model, for example, too sluggish ventilation of the deep Pacific Ocean.
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2015-08-06
    Description: Revision of the convective transport module CVTRANS 2.4 in the EMAC atmospheric chemistry–climate model Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 2435-2445, 2015 Author(s): H. G. Ouwersloot, A. Pozzer, B. Steil, H. Tost, and J. Lelieveld The convective transport module, CVTRANS, of the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model has been revised to better represent the physical flows and incorporate recent findings on the properties of the convective plumes. The modifications involve (i) applying intermediate time stepping based on a settable criterion, (ii) using an analytic expression to account for the intra-time-step mixing ratio evolution below cloud base, and (iii) implementing a novel expression for the mixing ratios of atmospheric compounds at the base of an updraft. Even when averaged over a year, the predicted mixing ratios of atmospheric compounds are affected considerably by the intermediate time stepping. For example, for an exponentially decaying atmospheric tracer with a lifetime of 1 day, the zonal averages can locally differ by more than a factor of 6 and the induced root mean square deviation from the original code is, weighted by the air mass, higher than 40 % of the average mixing ratio. The other modifications result in smaller differences. However, since they do not require additional computational time, their application is also recommended.
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Vertical resolution dependence of gravity wave momentum flux simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 1637-1644, 2015 Author(s): S. Watanabe, K. Sato, Y. Kawatani, and M. Takahashi The dependence of the gravity wave spectra of energy and momentum flux on the horizontal resolution and time step of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) has been thoroughly investigated in the past. In contrast, much less attention has been given to the dependence of these gravity wave parameters on models' vertical resolutions. The present study demonstrates the dependence of gravity wave momentum flux (GWMF) in the stratosphere and mesosphere on the model's vertical resolution, which is evaluated using an AGCM with a horizontal resolution of about 0.56°. We performed a series of sensitivity test simulations changing only the model's vertical resolution above a height of 8 km, and found a global reduction of GWMF with increasing vertical resolution. Inertial gravity waves with short vertical wavelengths simulated at higher vertical resolutions might play an important role in determining GWMF in the summertime stratosphere. The sensitivity test simulation also demonstrated the importance of the model's vertical resolution on representing realistic behaviors of gravity waves near their critical level.
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Mass-conserving subglacial hydrology in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model version 0.6 Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 1613-1635, 2015 Author(s): E. Bueler and W. van Pelt We describe and test a two-horizontal-dimension subglacial hydrology model which combines till with a distributed system of water-filled, linked cavities which open through sliding and close through ice creep. The addition of this sub-model to the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) accomplishes three specific goals: (a) conservation of the mass of water, (b) simulation of spatially and temporally variable basal shear stress from physical mechanisms based on a minimal number of free parameters, and (c) convergence under grid refinement. The model is a common generalization of four others: (i) the undrained plastic bed model of Tulaczyk et al. (2000b), (ii) a standard "routing" model used for identifying locations of subglacial lakes, (iii) the lumped englacial–subglacial model of Bartholomaus et al. (2011), and (iv) the elliptic-pressure-equation model of Schoof et al. (2012). We preserve physical bounds on the pressure. In steady state a functional relationship between water amount and pressure emerges. We construct an exact solution of the coupled, steady equations and use it for verification of our explicit time stepping, parallel numerical implementation. We demonstrate the model at scale by 5 year simulations of the entire Greenland ice sheet at 2 km horizontal resolution, with one million nodes in the hydrology grid.
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2015-06-05
    Description: ICON–ART 1.0 – a new online-coupled model system from the global to regional scale Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 1659-1676, 2015 Author(s): D. Rieger, M. Bangert, I. Bischoff-Gauss, J. Förstner, K. Lundgren, D. Reinert, J. Schröter, H. Vogel, G. Zängl, R. Ruhnke, and B. Vogel We present the first stage of a new online-coupled global to regional-scale modeling framework for the simulation of the spatiotemporal evolution of aerosols and trace gases. The underlying meteorological model is the new nonhydrostatic model system ICON (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic) which allows a local grid refinement with two-way interactions between the grids. We develop the extension ART (Aerosol and Reactive Trace gases) with the goal of simulating interactions between trace substances and the state of the atmosphere. Within this paper, we present the basic equations and give an overview of the physical parameterizations as well as numerical methods we use. First applications of the new model system for trace gases, monodisperse particles and polydisperse particles are shown. The simulated distribution of two very short-lived substances (VSLS), bromoform (CHBr 3 ) and dibromomethane (CH 2 Br 2 ) reflecting the fast upward transport shows a good agreement with observations and previous model studies. Also, the shape of the simulated tropical profiles is well reproduced. As an example for the treatment of monodisperse particles we present the simulated ash plume of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in April 2010. Here, a novel approach for the source function is applied. The pattern of the simulated distribution of volcanic ash particles shows a good agreement with previous studies. As an example for the treatment of a polydisperse aerosol, where number densities and mass concentrations are accounted for, we simulated the annual emissions of sea salt. We obtain a total emission flux of 26.0 Pg yr −1 and an emission flux of particles with diameter less than 10 μm of 7.36 Pg yr −1 .
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2015-07-30
    Description: An observation-constrained multi-physics WRF ensemble for simulating European mega heat waves Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 2285-2298, 2015 Author(s): A. I. Stegehuis, R. Vautard, P. Ciais, A. J. Teuling, D. G. Miralles, and M. Wild Many climate models have difficulties in properly reproducing climate extremes, such as heat wave conditions. Here we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model with a large combination of different atmospheric physics schemes, in combination with the NOAH land-surface scheme, with the goal of detecting the most sensitive physics and identifying those that appear most suitable for simulating the heat wave events of 2003 in western Europe and 2010 in Russia. In total, 55 out of 216 simulations combining different atmospheric physical schemes have a temperature bias smaller than 1 °C during the heat wave episodes, the majority of simulations showing a cold bias of on average 2–3 °C. Conversely, precipitation is mostly overestimated prior to heat waves, and shortwave radiation is slightly overestimated. Convection is found to be the most sensitive atmospheric physical process impacting simulated heat wave temperature across four different convection schemes in the simulation ensemble. Based on these comparisons, we design a reduced ensemble of five well performing and diverse scheme configurations, which may be used in the future to perform heat wave analysis and to investigate the impact of climate change during summer in Europe.
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2015-08-07
    Description: PLUME-MoM 1.0: A new integral model of volcanic plumes based on the method of moments Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 2447-2463, 2015 Author(s): M. de' Michieli Vitturi, A. Neri, and S. Barsotti In this paper a new integral mathematical model for volcanic plumes, named PLUME-MoM, is presented. The model describes the steady-state dynamics of a plume in a 3-D coordinate system, accounting for continuous variability in particle size distribution of the pyroclastic mixture ejected at the vent. Volcanic plumes are composed of pyroclastic particles of many different sizes ranging from a few microns up to several centimeters and more. A proper description of such a multi-particle nature is crucial when quantifying changes in grain-size distribution along the plume and, therefore, for better characterization of source conditions of ash dispersal models. The new model is based on the method of moments, which allows for a description of the pyroclastic mixture dynamics not only in the spatial domain but also in the space of parameters of the continuous size distribution of the particles. This is achieved by formulation of fundamental transport equations for the multi-particle mixture with respect to the different moments of the grain-size distribution. Different formulations, in terms of the distribution of the particle number, as well as of the mass distribution expressed in terms of the Krumbein log scale, are also derived. Comparison between the new moments-based formulation and the classical approach, based on the discretization of the mixture in N discrete phases, shows that the new model allows for the same results to be obtained with a significantly lower computational cost (particularly when a large number of discrete phases is adopted). Application of the new model, coupled with uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analyses, enables the investigation of the response of four key output variables (mean and standard deviation of the grain-size distribution at the top of the plume, plume height and amount of mass lost by the plume during the ascent) to changes in the main input parameters (mean and standard deviation) characterizing the pyroclastic mixture at the base of the plume. Results show that, for the range of parameters investigated and without considering interparticle processes such as aggregation or comminution, the grain-size distribution at the top of the plume is remarkably similar to that at the base and that the plume height is only weakly affected by the parameters of the grain distribution. The adopted approach can be potentially extended to the consideration of key particle–particle effects occurring in the plume including particle aggregation and fragmentation.
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2015-08-14
    Description: The LAGRANTO Lagrangian analysis tool – version 2.0 Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 2569-2586, 2015 Author(s): M. Sprenger and H. Wernli Lagrangian trajectories are widely used in the atmospheric sciences, for instance to identify flow structures in extratropical cyclones (e.g., warm conveyor belts) and long-range transport pathways of moisture and trace substances. Here a new version of the Lagrangian analysis tool LAGRANTO (Wernli and Davies, 1997) is introduced, which offers considerably enhanced functionalities. Trajectory starting positions can be defined easily and flexibly based on different geometrical and/or meteorological conditions, e.g., equidistantly spaced within a prescribed region and on a stack of pressure (or isentropic) levels. After the computation of the trajectories, a versatile selection of trajectories is offered based on single or combined criteria. These criteria are passed to LAGRANTO with a simple command language (e.g., "GT:PV:2" readily translates into a selection of all trajectories with potential vorticity, PV, greater than 2 PVU; 1 PVU = 10 −6 K m 2 kg −1 s −1 ). Full versions of this new version of LAGRANTO are available for global ECMWF and regional COSMO data, and core functionality is provided for the regional WRF and MetUM models and the global 20th Century Reanalysis data set. The paper first presents the intuitive application of LAGRANTO for the identification of a warm conveyor belt in the North Atlantic. A further case study then shows how LAGRANTO can be used to quasi-operationally diagnose stratosphere–troposphere exchange events. Whereas these examples rely on the ECMWF version, the COSMO version and input fields with 7 km horizontal resolution serve to resolve the rather complex flow structure associated with orographic blocking due to the Alps, as shown in a third example. A final example illustrates the tool's application in source–receptor analysis studies. The new distribution of LAGRANTO is publicly available and includes auxiliary tools, e.g., to visualize trajectories. A detailed user guide describes all LAGRANTO capabilities.
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2015-08-14
    Description: The Parallelized Large-Eddy Simulation Model (PALM) version 4.0 for atmospheric and oceanic flows: model formulation, recent developments, and future perspectives Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 2515-2551, 2015 Author(s): B. Maronga, M. Gryschka, R. Heinze, F. Hoffmann, F. Kanani-Sühring, M. Keck, K. Ketelsen, M. O. Letzel, M. Sühring, and S. Raasch In this paper we present the current version of the Parallelized Large-Eddy Simulation Model (PALM) whose core has been developed at the Institute of Meteorology and Climatology at Leibniz Universität Hannover (Germany). PALM is a Fortran 95-based code with some Fortran 2003 extensions and has been applied for the simulation of a variety of atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers for more than 15 years. PALM is optimized for use on massively parallel computer architectures and was recently ported to general-purpose graphics processing units. In the present paper we give a detailed description of the current version of the model and its features, such as an embedded Lagrangian cloud model and the possibility to use Cartesian topography. Moreover, we discuss recent model developments and future perspectives for LES applications.
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2015-08-14
    Description: Multi-generational oxidation model to simulate secondary organic aerosol in a 3-D air quality model Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 2553-2567, 2015 Author(s): S. H. Jathar, C. D. Cappa, A. S. Wexler, J. H. Seinfeld, and M. J. Kleeman Multi-generational gas-phase oxidation of organic vapors can influence the abundance, composition and properties of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Only recently have SOA models been developed that explicitly represent multi-generational SOA formation. In this work, we integrated the statistical oxidation model (SOM) into SAPRC-11 to simulate the multi-generational oxidation and gas/particle partitioning of SOA in the regional UCD/CIT (University of California, Davis/California Institute of Technology) air quality model. In the SOM, evolution of organic vapors by reaction with the hydroxyl radical is defined by (1) the number of oxygen atoms added per reaction, (2) the decrease in volatility upon addition of an oxygen atom and (3) the probability that a given reaction leads to fragmentation of the organic molecule. These SOM parameter values were fit to laboratory smog chamber data for each precursor/compound class. SOM was installed in the UCD/CIT model, which simulated air quality over 2-week periods in the South Coast Air Basin of California and the eastern United States. For the regions and episodes tested, the two-product SOA model and SOM produce similar SOA concentrations but a modestly different SOA chemical composition. Predictions of the oxygen-to-carbon ratio qualitatively agree with those measured globally using aerosol mass spectrometers. Overall, the implementation of the SOM in a 3-D model provides a comprehensive framework to simulate the atmospheric evolution of organic aerosol.
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2015-08-15
    Description: Photolysis rates in correlated overlapping cloud fields: Cloud-J 7.3c Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 2587-2595, 2015 Author(s): M. J. Prather A new approach for modeling photolysis rates ( J values) in atmospheres with fractional cloud cover has been developed and is implemented as Cloud-J – a multi-scattering eight-stream radiative transfer model for solar radiation based on Fast-J. Using observations of the vertical correlation of cloud layers, Cloud-J 7.3c provides a practical and accurate method for modeling atmospheric chemistry. The combination of the new maximum-correlated cloud groups with the integration over all cloud combinations by four quadrature atmospheres produces mean J values in an atmospheric column with root mean square (rms) errors of 4 % or less compared with 10–20 % errors using simpler approximations. Cloud-J is practical for chemistry–climate models, requiring only an average of 2.8 Fast-J calls per atmosphere vs. hundreds of calls with the correlated cloud groups, or 1 call with the simplest cloud approximations. Another improvement in modeling J values, the treatment of volatile organic compounds with pressure-dependent cross sections, is also incorporated into Cloud-J.
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2015-09-29
    Description: Calculations of the integral invariant coordinates I and L * in the magnetosphere and mapping of the regions where I is conserved, using a particle tracer (ptr3D v2.0), LANL*, SPENVIS, and IRBEM Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 2967-2975, 2015 Author(s): K. Konstantinidis and T. Sarris The integral invariant coordinate I and Roederer's L or L * are proxies for the second and third adiabatic invariants, respectively, that characterize charged particle motion in a magnetic field. Their usefulness lies in the fact that they are expressed in more instructive ways than their counterparts: I is equivalent to the path length of the particle motion between two mirror points, whereas L *, although dimensionless, is equivalent to the distance from the center of the Earth to the equatorial point of a given field line, in units of Earth radii, in the simplified case of a dipole magnetic field. However, care should be taken when calculating the above invariants, as the assumption of their conservation is not valid everywhere in the Earth's magnetosphere. This is not clearly stated in state-of-the-art models that are widely used for the calculation of these invariants. The purpose of this work is thus to investigate where in the near-Earth magnetosphere we can safely calculate I and L * with tools with widespread use in the field of space physics, for various magnetospheric conditions and particle initial conditions. More particularly, in this paper we compare the values of I and L * as calculated using LANL*, an artificial neural network developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, SPENVIS, a space environment online tool, IRBEM, a software library dedicated to radiation belt modeling, and ptr3D, a 3-D particle tracing code that was developed for this study. We then attempt to quantify the variations between the calculations of I and L * of those models. The deviation between the results given by the models depends on particle initial position, pitch angle and magnetospheric conditions. Using the ptr3D v2.0 particle tracer we map the areas in the Earth's magnetosphere where I and L * can be assumed to be conserved by monitoring the constancy of I for energetic protons propagating forwards and backwards in time. These areas are found to be centered on the noon area, and their size also depends on particle initial position, pitch angle and magnetospheric conditions.
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2015-08-27
    Description: High-resolution numerical modeling of mesoscale island wakes and sensitivity to static topographic relief data Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 2645-2653, 2015 Author(s): C. G. Nunalee, Á. Horváth, and S. Basu Recent decades have witnessed a drastic increase in the fidelity of numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling. Currently, both research-grade and operational NWP models regularly perform simulations with horizontal grid spacings as fine as 1 km. This migration towards higher resolution potentially improves NWP model solutions by increasing the resolvability of mesoscale processes and reducing dependency on empirical physics parameterizations. However, at the same time, the accuracy of high-resolution simulations, particularly in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), is also sensitive to orographic forcing which can have significant variability on the same spatial scale as, or smaller than, NWP model grids. Despite this sensitivity, many high-resolution atmospheric simulations do not consider uncertainty with respect to selection of static terrain height data set. In this paper, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate realistic cases of lower tropospheric flow over and downstream of mountainous islands using the default global 30 s United States Geographic Survey terrain height data set (GTOPO30), the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and the Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data set (GMTED2010) terrain height data sets. While the differences between the SRTM-based and GMTED2010-based simulations are extremely small, the GTOPO30-based simulations differ significantly. Our results demonstrate cases where the differences between the source terrain data sets are significant enough to produce entirely different orographic wake mechanics, such as vortex shedding vs. no vortex shedding. These results are also compared to MODIS visible satellite imagery and ASCAT near-surface wind retrievals. Collectively, these results highlight the importance of utilizing accurate static orographic boundary conditions when running high-resolution mesoscale models.
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2015-08-28
    Description: The Polar Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model: a parsimonious, satellite-data-driven model of high-latitude CO 2 exchange Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 2655-2674, 2015 Author(s): K. A. Luus and J. C. Lin We introduce the Polar Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (PolarVPRM), a remote-sensing-based approach for generating accurate, high-resolution (≥ 1 km 2 , 3 hourly) estimates of net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE). PolarVPRM simulates NEE using polar-specific vegetation classes, and by representing high-latitude influences on NEE, such as the influence of soil temperature on subnivean respiration. We present a description, validation and error analysis (first-order Taylor expansion) of PolarVPRM, followed by an examination of per-pixel trends (2001–2012) in model output for the North American terrestrial region north of 55° N. PolarVPRM was validated against eddy covariance (EC) observations from nine North American sites, of which three were used in model calibration. Comparisons of EC NEE to NEE from three models indicated that PolarVPRM displayed similar or better statistical agreement with eddy covariance observations than existing models showed. Trend analysis (2001–2012) indicated that warming air temperatures and drought stress in forests increased growing season rates of respiration, and decreased rates of net carbon uptake by vegetation when air temperatures exceeded optimal temperatures for photosynthesis. Concurrent increases in growing season length at Arctic tundra sites allowed for increases in photosynthetic uptake over time by tundra vegetation. PolarVPRM estimated that the North American high-latitude region changed from a carbon source (2001–2004) to a carbon sink (2005–2010) to again a source (2011–2012) in response to changing environmental conditions.
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2015-06-02
    Description: A size-composition resolved aerosol model for simulating the dynamics of externally mixed particles: SCRAM (v 1.0) Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 1595-1612, 2015 Author(s): S. Zhu, K. N. Sartelet, and C. Seigneur The Size-Composition Resolved Aerosol Model (SCRAM) for simulating the dynamics of externally mixed atmospheric particles is presented. This new model classifies aerosols by both composition and size, based on a comprehensive combination of all chemical species and their mass-fraction sections. All three main processes involved in aerosol dynamics (coagulation, condensation/evaporation and nucleation) are included. The model is first validated by comparison with a reference solution and with results of simulations using internally mixed particles. The degree of mixing of particles is investigated in a box model simulation using data representative of air pollution in Greater Paris. The relative influence on the mixing state of the different aerosol processes (condensation/evaporation, coagulation) and of the algorithm used to model condensation/evaporation (bulk equilibrium, dynamic) is studied.
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2015-05-19
    Description: Advancement toward coupling of the VAMPER permafrost model within the Earth system model i LOVECLIM (version 1.0): description and validation Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 1445-1460, 2015 Author(s): D. C. Kitover, R. van Balen, D. M. Roche, J. Vandenberghe, and H. Renssen The VU Amsterdam Permafrost (VAMPER) permafrost model has been enhanced with snow thickness and active layer calculations in preparation for coupling within the i LOVECLIM Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). In addition, maps of basal heat flux and lithology were developed within ECBilt, the atmosphere component of i LOVECLIM, so that VAMPER may use spatially varying parameters of geothermal heat flux and porosity values. The enhanced VAMPER model is validated by comparing the simulated modern-day extent of permafrost thickness with observations. To perform the simulations, the VAMPER model is forced by i LOVECLIM land surface temperatures. Results show that the simulation which did not include the snow cover option overestimated the present permafrost extent. However, when the snow component is included, the simulated permafrost extent is reduced too much. In analyzing simulated permafrost depths, it was found that most of the modeled thickness values and subsurface temperatures fall within a reasonable range of the corresponding observed values. Discrepancies between simulated and observed permafrost depth distribution are due to lack of captured effects from features such as topography and organic soil layers. In addition, some discrepancy is also due to disequilibrium with the current climate, meaning that some observed permafrost is a result of colder states and therefore cannot be reproduced accurately with constant i LOVECLIM preindustrial forcings.
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2015-05-28
    Description: NEMO–ICB (v1.0): interactive icebergs in the NEMO ocean model globally configured at eddy-permitting resolution Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 1547-1562, 2015 Author(s): R. Marsh, V. O. Ivchenko, N. Skliris, S. Alderson, G. R. Bigg, G. Madec, A. T. Blaker, Y. Aksenov, B. Sinha, A. C. Coward, J. Le Sommer, N. Merino, and V. B. Zalesny An established iceberg module, ICB, is used interactively with the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model in a new implementation, NEMO–ICB (v1.0). A 30-year hindcast (1976–2005) simulation with an eddy-permitting (0.25°) global configuration of NEMO–ICB is undertaken to evaluate the influence of icebergs on sea ice, hydrography, mixed layer depths (MLDs), and ocean currents, through comparison with a control simulation in which the equivalent iceberg mass flux is applied as coastal runoff, a common forcing in ocean models. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), drift and melting of icebergs are in balance after around 5 years, whereas the equilibration timescale for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is 15–20 years. Iceberg drift patterns, and Southern Ocean iceberg mass, compare favourably with available observations. Freshwater forcing due to iceberg melting is most pronounced very locally, in the coastal zone around much of Antarctica, where it often exceeds in magnitude and opposes the negative freshwater fluxes associated with sea ice freezing. However, at most locations in the polar Southern Ocean, the annual-mean freshwater flux due to icebergs, if present, is typically an order of magnitude smaller than the contribution of sea ice melting and precipitation. A notable exception is the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, where iceberg melting reaches around 50% of net precipitation over a large area. Including icebergs in place of coastal runoff, sea ice concentration and thickness are notably decreased at most locations around Antarctica, by up to ~ 20% in the eastern Weddell Sea, with more limited increases, of up to ~ 10% in the Bellingshausen Sea. Antarctic sea ice mass decreases by 2.9%, overall. As a consequence of changes in net freshwater forcing and sea ice, salinity and temperature distributions are also substantially altered. Surface salinity increases by ~ 0.1 psu around much of Antarctica, due to suppressed coastal runoff, with extensive freshening at depth, extending to the greatest depths in the polar Southern Ocean where discernible effects on both salinity and temperature reach 2500 m in the Weddell Sea by the last pentad of the simulation. Substantial physical and dynamical responses to icebergs, throughout the global ocean, are explained by rapid propagation of density anomalies from high-to-low latitudes. Complementary to the baseline model used here, three prototype modifications to NEMO–ICB are also introduced and discussed.
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2015-05-29
    Description: A high-resolution ocean and sea-ice modelling system for the Arctic and North Atlantic oceans Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 1577-1594, 2015 Author(s): F. Dupont, S. Higginson, R. Bourdallé-Badie, Y. Lu, F. Roy, G. C. Smith, J.-F. Lemieux, G. Garric, and F. Davidson As part of the CONCEPTS (Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental PredicTion Systems) initiative, a high-resolution (1/12°) ice–ocean regional model is developed covering the North Atlantic and the Arctic oceans. The long-term objective is to provide Canada with short-term ice–ocean predictions and hazard warnings in ice-infested regions. To evaluate the modelling component (as opposed to the analysis – or data-assimilation – component, which is not covered in this contribution), a series of hindcasts for the period 2003–2009 is carried out, forced at the surface by the Canadian GDPS reforecasts (Smith et al., 2014). These hindcasts test how the model represents upper ocean characteristics and ice cover. Each hindcast implements a new aspect of the modelling or the ice–ocean coupling. Notably, the coupling to the multi-category ice model CICE is tested. The hindcast solutions are then assessed using a verification package under development, including in situ and satellite ice and ocean observations. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the model reproduces reasonably well the time mean, variance and skewness of sea surface height; (2) the model biases in temperature and salinity show that while the mean properties follow expectations, the Pacific Water signature in the Beaufort Sea is weaker than observed; (3) the modelled freshwater content of the Arctic agrees well with observational estimates; (4) the distribution and volume of the sea ice are shown to be improved in the latest hindcast due to modifications to the drag coefficients and to some degree to the ice thickness distribution available in CICE; (5) nonetheless, the model still overestimates the ice drift and ice thickness in the Beaufort Gyre.
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2015-05-29
    Description: Including an ocean carbon cycle model into i LOVECLIM (v1.0) Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 1563-1576, 2015 Author(s): N. Bouttes, D. M. Roche, V. Mariotti, and L. Bopp The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration plays a crucial role in the radiative balance and as such has a strong influence on the evolution of climate. Because of the numerous interactions between climate and the carbon cycle, it is necessary to include a model of the carbon cycle within a climate model to understand and simulate past and future changes of the carbon cycle. In particular, natural variations of atmospheric CO 2 have happened in the past, while anthropogenic carbon emissions are likely to continue in the future. To study changes of the carbon cycle and climate on timescales of a few hundred to a few thousand years, we have included a simple carbon cycle model into the i LOVECLIM Earth System Model. In this study, we describe the ocean and terrestrial biosphere carbon cycle models and their performance relative to observational data. We focus on the main carbon cycle variables including the carbon isotope ratios δ 13 C and the Δ 14 C. We show that the model results are in good agreement with modern observations both at the surface and in the deep ocean for the main variables, in particular phosphates, dissolved inorganic carbon and the carbon isotopes.
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2015-05-27
    Description: Objectified quantification of uncertainties in Bayesian atmospheric inversions Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 1525-1546, 2015 Author(s): A. Berchet, I. Pison, F. Chevallier, P. Bousquet, J.-L. Bonne, and J.-D. Paris Classical Bayesian atmospheric inversions process atmospheric observations and prior emissions, the two being connected by an observation operator picturing mainly the atmospheric transport. These inversions rely on prescribed errors in the observations, the prior emissions and the observation operator. When data pieces are sparse, inversion results are very sensitive to the prescribed error distributions, which are not accurately known. The classical Bayesian framework experiences difficulties in quantifying the impact of mis-specified error distributions on the optimized fluxes. In order to cope with this issue, we rely on recent research results to enhance the classical Bayesian inversion framework through a marginalization on a large set of plausible errors that can be prescribed in the system. The marginalization consists in computing inversions for all possible error distributions weighted by the probability of occurrence of the error distributions. The posterior distribution of the fluxes calculated by the marginalization is not explicitly describable. As a consequence, we carry out a Monte Carlo sampling based on an approximation of the probability of occurrence of the error distributions. This approximation is deduced from the well-tested method of the maximum likelihood estimation. Thus, the marginalized inversion relies on an automatic objectified diagnosis of the error statistics, without any prior knowledge about the matrices. It robustly accounts for the uncertainties on the error distributions, contrary to what is classically done with frozen expert-knowledge error statistics. Some expert knowledge is still used in the method for the choice of an emission aggregation pattern and of a sampling protocol in order to reduce the computation cost. The relevance and the robustness of the method is tested on a case study: the inversion of methane surface fluxes at the mesoscale with virtual observations on a realistic network in Eurasia. Observing system simulation experiments are carried out with different transport patterns, flux distributions and total prior amounts of emitted methane. The method proves to consistently reproduce the known "truth" in most cases, with satisfactory tolerance intervals. Additionally, the method explicitly provides influence scores and posterior correlation matrices. An in-depth interpretation of the inversion results is then possible. The more objective quantification of the influence of the observations on the fluxes proposed here allows us to evaluate the impact of the observation network on the characterization of the surface fluxes. The explicit correlations between emission aggregates reveal the mis-separated regions, hence the typical temporal and spatial scales the inversion can analyse. These scales are consistent with the chosen aggregation patterns.
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2016-07-15
    Description: Improving the inter-hemispheric gradient of total column atmospheric CO 2 and CH 4 in simulations with the ECMWF semi-Lagrangian atmospheric global model Anna Agusti-Panareda, Michail Diamantakis, Victor Bayona, Friedrich Klappenbach, and Andre Butz Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-143,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) This paper demonstrates how important mass fixers can be in the simulation of long-lived greenhouse gases using transport models based on the highly efficient semi-lagrangian advection scheme. Mass fixers can have a large impact on the representation of the inter-hemispheric gradient of CO 2 and CH 4 , a crucial feature of their distribution. This work is relevant for models simulating atmospheric composition that use semi-lagrangian advection schemes both for climate and air quality applications.
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2016-07-28
    Description: Numerical framework and performance of the new multiple-phase cloud microphysics scheme in RegCM4.5: precipitation, cloud microphysics, and cloud radiative effects Rita Nogherotto, Adrian Mark Tompkins, Graziano Giuliani, Erika Coppola, and Filippo Giorgi Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2533-2547, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2533-2016, 2016 The paper presents a new cloud scheme for regional climate model RegCM4.5. The new scheme treats microphysical processes occurring within stratiform clouds and with respect to the pre-existing scheme is able to allow a more physically realistic representation of cloud microphysics and distribution, improving the representation of the longwave and shortwave components of the cloud radiative forcing.
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2016-07-30
    Description: Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21–9 thousand years before present (version 1) – PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, Masa Kageyama, Didier M. Roche, Paul J. Valdes, Andrea Burke, Rosemarie Drummond, W. Richard Peltier, and Lev Tarasov Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2563-2587, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2563-2016, 2016 This manuscript presents the experiment design for the PMIP4 Last Deglaciation Core experiment: a transient simulation of the last deglaciation, 21–9 ka. Specified model boundary conditions include time-varying orbital parameters, greenhouse gases, ice sheets, ice meltwater fluxes and other geographical changes (provided for 26–0 ka). The context of the experiment and the choices for the boundary conditions are explained, along with the future direction of the working group.
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2016-08-03
    Description: Global 7-km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7): Experimental design and preliminary results Masuo Nakano, Akiyoshi Wada, Masahiro Sawada, Hiromasa Yoshimura, Ryo Onishi, Shintaro Kawahara, Wataru Sasaki, Tomoe Nasuno, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Takeshi Iriguchi, Masato Sugi, and Yoshiaki Takeuchi Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-184,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) Recent advances in high-performance computers facilitate operational numerical weather prediction by global hydrostatic atmospheric models with horizontal resolution ~ 10 km. Given further advances in such computers and the fact that the hydrostatic balance approximation becomes invalid for spatial scales
    Print ISSN: 1991-959X
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2016-08-03
    Description: Evaluation of NorESM-OC (versions 1 and 1.2), the ocean carbon-cycle stand-alone configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1) Jörg Schwinger, Nadine Goris, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Iris Kriest, Mats Bentsen, Ingo Bethke, Mehmet Ilicak, Karen M. Assmann, and Christoph Heinze Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2589-2622, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2589-2016, 2016 We present an evaluation of the ocean carbon cycle stand-alone configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model. A re-tuning of the ecosystem parameterisation improves surface tracer fields between versions 1 and 1.2 of the model. Focus is placed on the evaluation of newly implemented parameterisations of the biological carbon pump (i.e. the sinking of particular organic carbon). We find that the model previously underestimated the carbon transport into the deep ocean below 2000 m depth.
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2016-07-13
    Description: Evaluating statistical consistency in the ocean model component of the Community Earth System Model (pyCECT v2.0) Allison H. Baker, Yong Hu, Dorit M. Hammerling, Yu-heng Tseng, Haiying Xu, Xiaomeng Huang, Frank O. Bryan, and Guangwen Yang Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2391-2406, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2391-2016, 2016 Software quality assurance is critical to detecting errors in large, complex climate simulation codes. We focus on ocean model simulation data in the context of an ensemble-based statistical consistency testing approach developed for atmospheric data. Because ocean and atmosphere models have differing characteristics, we develop a new statistical tool to evaluate ocean model simulation data that provide a simple, subjective, and systematic way to detect errors and instil model confidence.
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2016-07-19
    Description: Biogeochemical protocols and diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) James C. Orr, Raymond G. Najjar, Olivier Aumount, Laurent Bopp, John L. Bullister, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Jean-Claude Dutay, Heather Graven, Stephen M. Griffies, Jasmin G. John, Fortunat Joos, Ingeborg Levin, Keith Lindsay, Richard J. Matear, Galen A. McKinley, Anne Mouchet, Andreas Oschlies, Anastasia Romanou, Reiner Schlitzer, Alessandro Tagliabue, Toste Tanhua, and Andrew Yool Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-155,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is a model comparison effort under Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Its physical component is described elsewhere in this special issue. Here we describe its ocean biogeochemical component (OMIP-BGC), detailing simulation protocols and analysis diagnostics. Simulations focus on ocean carbon, other biogeochemical tracers, air-sea exchange of CO 2 and related gases, and chemical tracers used to evaluate modeled circulation.
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2016-07-21
    Description: A new test statistic for climate models that includes field and spatial dependencies using Gaussian Markov random fields Alvaro Nosedal-Sanchez, Charles S. Jackson, and Gabriel Huerta Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2407-2414, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2407-2016, 2016 We have developed a new metric for climate model evaluation that quantifies the significance of modeling errors across multiple fields. Our approach dramatically reduces the amount of data that is required to evaluate field and space dependencies and increases the community's potential to make use of the extremely valuable but limited satellite observational record. Our objective is to improve the strategies that currently exist for more formal data-driven model development.
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2016-07-22
    Description: The new implementation of a computationally efficient modeling tool (STOPS v1.5) into CMAQ v5.0.2 and its application for a more accurate prediction of Asian dust Wonbae Jeon, Yunsoo Choi, Peter Percell, Amir Hossein Souri, Chang-Keun Song, Soon-Tae Kim, and Jhoon Kim Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-180,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) This study suggests a new hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian modeling tool (the Screening Trajectory Ozone Prediction System, STOPS) for a more accurate prediction of Asian dust event. The STOPS is a moving nest (Lagrangian approach) between the source and the receptor inside Eulerian model. We run STOPS, instead of running time-consuming Eulerian model, using constrained PM concentration from remote sensing aerosol optical depth, reflecting real-time dust particles. The STOPS is for unexpected events.
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2016-07-26
    Description: Evaluating Lossy Data Compression on Climate Simulation Data within a Large Ensemble Allison H. Baker, Dorit M. Hammerling, Sheri A. Mickleson, Haiying Xu, Martin B. Stolpe, Phillipe Naveau, Ben Sanderson, Imme Ebert-Uphoff, Savini Samarasinghe, Francesco De Simone, Francesco Carbone, Christian N. Gencarelli, John M. Dennis, Jennifer E. Kay, and Peter Lindstrom Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-146,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) We apply lossy data compression to output from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Community Project. We challenge climate scientists to examine features of the data relevant to their interests and identify which of the ensemble members have been compressed, and we perform direct comparisons on features critical to climate science. We find that applying lossy data compression to climate model data effectively reduces data volumes with minimal effect on scientific results.
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2016-07-26
    Description: A consistent prescription of stratospheric aerosol for both radiation and chemistry in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) Ryan Reynolds Neely III, Andrew J. Conley, Francis Vitt, and Jean-François Lamarque Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2459-2470, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2459-2016, 2016 We describe an updated scheme for prescribing stratospheric aerosol in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). The inadequate response of the CESM1 to large volcanic disturbances to the stratospheric aerosol layer (such as the 1991 Pinatubo eruption) in comparison to observations motivates the need for a new parameterization. Simulations utilizing the new scheme successfully reproduce the observed global mean and local stratospheric temperature response to the Pinatubo eruption.
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2016-07-28
    Description: High-resolution land surface fluxes from satellite and reanalysis data (HOLAPS v1.0): evaluation and uncertainty assessment Alexander Loew, Jian Peng, and Michael Borsche Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2499-2532, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2499-2016, 2016 Surface water and energy fluxes are essential components of the Earth system. The present paper introduces a new framework for the estimation of surface energy and water fluxes at the land surface, which allows for temporally and spatially high resolved flux estimates at the global scale. The framework maximizes the usage of existing long-term satellite data records. Overall the results indicate very good agreement with in situ observations when compared against 49 FLUXNET stations worldwide.
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2016-07-28
    Description: Comparison of adjoint and nudging methods to initialise ice sheet model basal conditions Cyrille Mosbeux, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, and Olivier Gagliardini Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2549-2562, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2549-2016, 2016 Model projections of ice sheet contribution to 21st century sea level rise are greatly affected by initial conditions. Solutions have been developed to infer the friction of the ice on its bedrock using observed surface velocities. A drawback of these methods is that remaining uncertainties, especially in the bedrock elevation, lead to non-physical ice flux divergence anomalies. Here, we compare two different solutions able to infer both bedrock friction and elevation with good performance.
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2016-08-02
    Description: Simple Plumes: A parameterization of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect for climate studies Bjorn Stevens, Stephanie Fiedler, Stefan Kinne, Karsten Peters, Sebastian Rast, Jobst Müsse, Steven J. Smith, and Thorsten Mauritsen Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-189,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) A simple analytic description of aerosol optical properties and their main effects on clouds is developed and described. The analytic description is easy to use and easy to modify and should aid experimentation to help understand how aerosol radiative and cloud interactions effect climate and circulation. The climatology is recommended for adoption by models participating in the sixth phase of the coupled model intercomparision project.
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2016-08-02
    Description: Development of a new gas flaring emission data set for southern West Africa Konrad Deetz and Bernhard Vogel Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-110,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) A new gas flaring emission parameterization has been developed which combines remote sensing observations with combustion equations. This parameterization can easily be applied to different research domains and allows the creation of a flaring emission dataset (e.g. for chemistry models). This research is part of the project DACCIWA (Dynamics-aerosol-cloud interactions in West Africa) in which among other sources of air pollution also the gas flaring plays an important role.
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2016-08-02
    Description: Implementation of street trees in solar radiative exchange parameterization of TEB in SURFEX v8.0 Emilie Redon, Aude Lemonsu, Valéry Masson, Benjamin Morille, and Marjorie Musy Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-157,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) In order to assess the potential of cooling of urban vegetation in cities we need to refine some processes in the microclimate models running on cities as the TEB model. The shading effects of trees on roads, low vegetation (grass) or walls are key processes impacting both air and surfaces temperatures in the streets by reducing them and improving the thermal comfort of inhabitants. They have been implemented into the TEB model and simulations have been evaluated by a fine scale model, SOLENE.
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2016-08-02
    Description: A diagram for evaluating multiple aspects of model performance in simulating vector fields Zhongfeng Xu, Zhaolu Hou, Ying Han, and Weidong Guo Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-172,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) The paper devises a new diagram, termed vector field evaluation (VFE) diagram, which is very similar to Taylor diagram but to provide a concise evaluation of model performance in simulating vector fields. The diagram can measure how well of two vector fields match each other in terms of three statistical variables. The VFE diagram is a generalized Taylor diagram, which can be applied to multi-dimensional variables (e.g. vector winds, pressure gradient) evaluation.
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2016-08-04
    Description: Air quality modelling in the Berlin-Brandenburg region using WRF-Chem v3.7.1: sensitivity to resolution of model grid and input data Friderike Kuik, Axel Lauer, Galina Churkina, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Daniel Fenner, Kathleen A. Mar, and Tim M. Butler Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-190,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) Air pollution is the number one environmental cause of premature deaths in Europe. Despite extensive regulations, air pollution remains a challenge, especially in urban areas. For studying summertime air quality in the Berlin-Brandenburg region of Germany, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is set up and evaluated against meteorological and air quality observations from monitoring stations as well as from a field campaign conducted in 2014. The objective is to assess which resolution and level of detail in the input data is needed for simulating urban background air pollutant concentrations and their spatial distribution in the Berlin-Brandenburg area. The model setup includes three nested domains with horizontal resolutions of 15 km, 3 km, and 1 km and anthropogenic emissions from the TNO-MACC III inventory. We use RADM2 chemistry and the MADE/SORGAM aerosol scheme. Three sensitivity simulations are conducted updating input parameters to the single-layer urban canopy model based on structural data for Berlin, specifying land use classes on a sub-grid scale (mosaic option) and downscaling the original emissions to a resolution of ca. 1 km × 1 km for Berlin based on proxy data including traffic density and population density. The results show that the model simulates meteorology well, though urban 2 m temperature and urban wind speeds are biased high and nighttime mixing layer height is biased low in the base run. We show that the simulation of urban meteorology can be improved when specifying the input parameters to the urban model, and to a lesser extent when using the mosaic option. On average, ozone is simulated reasonably well, but maximum daily eight hour mean concentrations are underestimated, which is consistent with the results from previous modelling studies using the RADM2 chemical mechanism. Particulate matter is underestimated, which is partly due to an underestimation of secondary organic aerosols. NO x (= NO + NO 2 ) concentrations are simulated reasonably well on average, but nighttime concentrations are overestimated due to the model's underestimation of the mixing layer height, and urban daytime concentrations are underestimated. The daytime underestimation is improved when using downscaled, and thus locally higher emissions, suggesting that part of this bias is due to deficiencies in the emission input data and their resolution. The results further demonstrate that a horizontal resolution of 3 km improves the results and spatial representativeness of the model compared to a horizontal resolution of 15 km. With the input data (land use classes, emissions) at the level of detail of the base run of this study we find that a horizontal resolution of 1 km does not improve the results compared to a resolution of 3 km. However, our results suggest that a 1 km horizontal model resolution could enable a detailed simulation of local pollution patterns in the Berlin-Brandenburg region if the urban land use classes together with the respective input parameters to the urban canopy model are specified with a higher level of detail and if urban emissions of higher spatial resolution are used.
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  • 57
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    Copernicus
    Publication Date: 2016-08-06
    Description: Historical greenhouse gas concentrations Malte Meinshausen, Elisabeth Vogel, Alexander Nauels, Katja Lorbacher, Nicolai Meinshausen, David Etheridge, Paul Fraser, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter Rayner, Cathy Trudinger, Paul Krummel, Urs Beyerle, Josep G. Cannadell, John S. Daniel, Ian Enting, Rachel M. Law, Simon O'Doherty, Ron G. Prinn, Stefan Reimann, Mauro Rubino, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, and Ray Weiss Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-169,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) Climate change is primarily driven by human-induced increases of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Based on ongoing community efforts in the AGAGE and NOAA measurement networks, this study presents historical concentrations of CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O and 40 other GHGs from year 0 to year 2014. The data is recommended as input for climate models in their historical concentration-driven runs for the intercomparison project CMIP6. Global means, but also latitudinal and seasonal variations are provided.
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2016-08-06
    Description: GLEAM v3: satellite-based land evaporation and root-zone soil moisture Brecht Martens, Diego G. Miralles, Hans Lievens, Robin van der Schalie, Richard A. M. de Jeu, Diego Férnandez-Prieto, Hylke E. Beck, Wouter A. Dorigo, and Niko E. C. Verhoest Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-162,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) Terrestrial evaporation is a key component of the hydrological cycle and reliable datasets of this variable are of major importance. The Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM, http://GLEAM.eu ) is a set of algorithms which estimates evaporation based on satellite observations. The 3rd version of GLEAM, presented in this study, includes an improved parameterization of different model components. As a result, the accuracy of the GLEAM datasets has been improved upon previous versions.
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2016-07-08
    Description: Constraining the strength of the terrestrial CO 2 fertilization effect in the Canadian Earth system model version 4.2 (CanESM4.2) Vivek K. Arora and John F. Scinocca Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2357-2376, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2357-2016, 2016 This paper uses observed features of the global carbon cycle to constrain how much carbon the land should take up in an Earth system model in response to increasing fossil fuel CO 2 emissions since the start of the industrial era. These models are the only tool available to us for projecting future climate change. Despite their uncertainties, if current observations can be used to constrain models then more confidence can be places in models' future climate change projections.
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2016-07-08
    Description: Northern Hemisphere storminess in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) Erlend M. Knudsen and John E. Walsh Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2335-2355, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2335-2016, 2016 In this paper, two global climate models (NorESM1-M and CCSM4) are compared to an observational-based data set (ERA-Interim) for their ability to simulate historical Arctic storminess in autumn. With this in hand, the models are run through the 21st century. We find an overall significant increase in precipitation expected, with generally fewer and weaker storms in midlatitudes and partly more and stronger storms in high-latitudes. The tendencies are strongest in areas of Arctic sea ice retreat.
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  • 61
    Publication Date: 2016-06-25
    Description: Influence of Bulk Microphysics Schemes upon Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Version 3.6.1 Nor'easter Simulations Stephen D. Nicholls, Steven G. Decker, Wei-Kuo Tao, Stephen E. Lang, Jainn J. Shi, and Karen I. Mohr Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-151,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) This study investigates the impact of six precipitation parameterization schemes (each making different assumptions) on seven, high impact winter storm event simulations. Results show little to no change in storm track, intensity, or precipitation extent attributable to these schemes. However, frozen hydrometeor species concentration and saturation levels did vary by up to an order of magnitude. Although large, these differences did not translate upwards to mesoscale and synoptic scales.
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  • 62
    Publication Date: 2016-06-21
    Description: A new radiation infrastructure for the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy, based on version 2.51) Simone Dietmüller, Patrick Jöckel, Holger Tost, Markus Kunze, Catrin Gellhorn, Sabine Brinkop, Christine Frömming, Michael Ponater, Benedikt Steil, Axel Lauer, and Johannes Hendricks Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2209-2222, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2209-2016, 2016 Four new radiation related submodels (RAD, AEROPT, CLOUDOPT, and ORBIT) are available within the MESSy framework now. They are largely based on the original radiation scheme of ECHAM5. RAD simulates radiative transfer, AEROPT calculates aerosol optical properties, CLOUDOPT calculates cloud optical properties, and ORBIT is responsible for Earth orbit calculations. Multiple diagnostic calls of the radiation routine are possible, so radiative forcing can be calculated during the model simulation.
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2016-06-21
    Description: A diagnostic interface for the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) modelling framework based on the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy, 2.50) Bastian Kern and Patrick Jöckel Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-126,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) Input and output of large data limit the performance of numerical models on supercomputers. We present an interface for the calculation of on-line diagnostics in a weather and climate model. These diagnostics are calculated on-line during the simulation instead of as subsequent post-processing. Depending on the diagnostic we can reduce the amount of model output.
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2016-06-21
    Description: Evaluation of Monte Carlo tools for high energy atmospheric physics Casper Rutjes, David Sarria, Alexander Broberg Skeltved, Alejandro Luque, Gabriel Diniz, Nikolai Østgaard, and Ute Ebert Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-147,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) High energy atmospheric physics includes Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes, electron-positron beams and gamma-ray glows from thunderstorms. It requires appropriate models for the interaction of energetic particles with the atmosphere. We benchmark general purpose and custom made codes against each other. We focus on basic tests, namely on the evolution of particles through air in the absence of electric and magnetic fields, providing a first benchmark for present and future custom made codes.
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  • 65
    Publication Date: 2016-06-24
    Description: Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in climate simulations Paolo Davini, Jost von Hardenberg, Susanna Corti, Hannah M. Christensen, Stephan Juricke, Aneesh Subramanian, Peter A. G. Watson, Antje Weisheimer, and Tim N. Palmer Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-115,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) The Climate SPHINX (Stochastic Physics HIgh resolutioN eXperiments) project is a comprehensive set of ensemble simulations aimed at evaluating the sensitivity of present and future climate to model resolution and stochastic parameterisation. The EC-Earth Earth-System Model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in a large ensemble of 30-year climate integrations at five different atmospheric horizontal resolutions (from 125 km up to 16 km). The project includes more than 120 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979–2008) and a climate change projection (2039–2068), together with coupled transient runs (1850–2100). A total of 20.4 million core hours have been used, made available from a single year grant from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe), and close to 1.5 PBytes of output data have been produced on SuperMUC IBM Petascale System at the Leibniz Supercomputing Center (LRZ) in Garching, Germany. About 140 TBytes of post-processed data are stored on the CINECA supercomputing center archives and are freely accessible to the community thanks to an EUDAT Data Pilot project. This paper presents the technical and scientific setup of the experiments, including the details on the forcing used for the simulations performed, defining the SPHINX v1.0 protocol. In addition, an overview of preliminary results is given: an improvement in the simulation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking following resolution increases is observed. It is also shown that including stochastic parameterisation in the low resolution runs helps to improve some aspects of the tropical climate – specifically the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the tropical rainfall variability. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small scale processes on the large scale climate variability either explicitly (with high resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low resolution simulations).
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  • 66
    Publication Date: 2016-06-22
    Description: Microphysics parameterization sensitivity of the WRF Model version 3.1.7 to extreme precipitation: evaluation of the 1997 New Year’s flood of California Elcin Tan Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-94,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) California is vulnerable to extreme precipitation, which occurs due to atmospheric rivers. This study is an attempt to evaluate the performance of the WRF Model for the extreme precipitation event that caused the 1997 New Year’s flood in California. The results show that the accuracy of the WRF Model is much higher for the 72-hr total basin-averaged evaluations than for the hourly and point-wise comparisons. The Thompson Scheme indicates more trustworthy results than others, with a 3.1 % error.
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2016-06-22
    Description: Automatic delineation of geomorphological slope-units and their optimization for landslide susceptibility modelling Massimiliano Alvioli, Ivan Marchesini, Paola Reichenbach, Mauro Rossi, Francesca Ardizzone, Federica Fiorucci, and Fausto Guzzetti Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-118,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) Slope-Unit are morphological mapping units bounded by drainage and divide lines that maximize within-unit homogeneity and between-unit heterogeneity. We present r.slopeunits , a software for the automatic delination of Slope-Units. We outline an objective procedure to optimize the software input parameters for Landslide Susceptibility (LS) zonation. Optimization is achieved maximizing an objective function that simultaneously evaluates terrain aspect segmentation quality and LS model performance.
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 2016-06-22
    Description: DeepMIP: experimental design for model simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Rodrigo Caballero, Rob DeConto, Yannick Donnadieu, David Evans, Ran Feng, Gavin Foster, Ed Gasson, Anna S. von der Heydt, Chris J. Hollis, Sandy Kirtland Turner, Robert L. Korty, Reinhardt Kozdon, Srinath Krishnan, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Petra Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Allegra N. LeGrande, Kate Littler, Paul Markwick, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Paul Pearson, Chris Poulsen, Ulrich Salzmann, Christine Shields, Kathryn Snell, Michael Starz, James Super, Clay Tabour, Jess Tierney, Gregory J. L. Tourte, Gary R. Upchurch, Bridget Wade, Scott L. Wing, Arne M. E. Winguth, Nicky Wright, James C. Zachos, and Richard Zeebe Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-127,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) In this paper we describe the experimental design for a set of simulations which will be carried out by a range of climate models, all investigating the climate of the Eocene, about 50 million years ago. The intercomparison of model results is called "DeepMIP", and we anticipate that we will contribute to the next IPCC report through an analysis of these simulations and the geological data to which we will compare them.
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2016-06-23
    Description: The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) contribution to CMIP6: Investigation of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO 2 forcing Jonathan M. Gregory, Nathaelle Bouttes-Mauhourat, Stephen M. Griffies, Helmuth Haak, William J. Hurlin, Johann Jungclaus, Maxwell Kelley, Warren G. Lee, John Marshall, Anastasia Romanou, Oleg A. Saenko, Detlef Stammer, and Michael Winton Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-122,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) As a consequence of greenhouse gas emissions, changes in ocean temperature, salinity, circulation and sea-level are expected in coming decades. Among the models used for climate projections for the 21st century, there is a large spread in projections of these effects. The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate and explain this spread by prescribing a common set of changes in the input of heat, water and windstress to the ocean in the participating models.
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  • 70
    Publication Date: 2016-06-24
    Description: mizuRoute version 1: a river network routing tool for a continental domain water resources applications Naoki Mizukami, Martyn P. Clark, Kevin Sampson, Bart Nijssen, Yixin Mao, Hilary McMillan, Roland J. Viger, Steve L. Markstrom, Lauren E. Hay, Ross Woods, Jeffrey R. Arnold, and Levi D. Brekke Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2223-2238, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2223-2016, 2016 mizuRoute version 1 is a stand-alone runoff routing tool that post-processes runoff outputs from any distributed hydrologic models to produce streamflow estimates in large-scale river network. mizuRoute is flexible to river network representation and includes two different river routing schemes. This paper demonstrates mizuRoute's capability of multi-decadal streamflow estimations in the river networks over the entire contiguous Unites States, which contains over 54 000 river segments.
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  • 71
    Publication Date: 2016-06-24
    Description: The compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2: description and first results Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, Olivier Boucher, Yann Quilcaille, Maxime Tortora, Laurent Bopp, and Didier Hauglustaine Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-149,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) Simple models of the Earth system are useful, especially because of their high computing efficiency. This work describes the OSCAR model: a new simple Earth system model calibrated on state-of-the-art complex models. It will add to the pool of the few simple models currently used by the community, and it will therefore improve the robustness of future studies. Its source code will be made publicly available upon final release of this description paper.
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  • 72
    Publication Date: 2016-05-05
    Description: On the numerical stability of surface-atmosphere coupling in weather and climate models Anton Beljaars, Emanuel Dutra, and Gianpaolo Balsamo Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-96,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) Coupling the atmosphere with the underlying surface presents numerical stability challenges in cost-effective model integrations used for operational weather prediction or climate simulations. These are due to the choice of large integration time-step, aiming at reducing computational burden, and to an explicit flux coupling formulation, often preferred for its simplicity and modularity. The atmospheric models therefore use the surface-layer temperatures (representative of the uppermost soil, snow, ice, water, etc.,) at previous integration time-step in all surface-atmosphere heat-flux calculations and prescribe fluxes to be used in the surface models' integrations. Although both models may use implicit formulations for the time stepping, the explicit flux coupling can still lead to instabilities. In this study, idealized simulations with a fully coupled implicit system are performed to derive an empirical relation between surface heat flux and surface temperature at the new time level. Such a relation mimics the fully implicit formulation by allowing to estimate the surface temperature at the new time level without solving the surface heat diffusion problem. It is based on similarity reasoning and applies to any medium with constant heat diffusion and heat capacity parameters. The advantage is that modularity of the code is maintained and that the heat flux can be computed in the atmospheric model in such a way that instabilities in the snow or ice code are avoided. Applicability to snow/ice/soil models with variable density is discussed, and the loss of accuracy turns out to be small.
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2016-05-11
    Description: ESMValTool (v1.0) – a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP Veronika Eyring, Mattia Righi, Axel Lauer, Martin Evaldsson, Sabrina Wenzel, Colin Jones, Alessandro Anav, Oliver Andrews, Irene Cionni, Edouard L. Davin, Clara Deser, Carsten Ehbrecht, Pierre Friedlingstein, Peter Gleckler, Klaus-Dirk Gottschaldt, Stefan Hagemann, Martin Juckes, Stephan Kindermann, John Krasting, Dominik Kunert, Richard Levine, Alexander Loew, Jarmo Mäkelä, Gill Martin, Erik Mason, Adam S. Phillips, Simon Read, Catherine Rio, Romain Roehrig, Daniel Senftleben, Andreas Sterl, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Jeremy Walton, Shiyu Wang, and Keith D. Williams Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1747-1802, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, 2016 A community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) in CMIP has been developed that allows for routine comparison of single or multiple models, either against predecessor versions or against observations.
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  • 74
    Publication Date: 2016-05-11
    Description: Trans-Pacific transport and evolution of aerosols: evaluation of quasi-global WRF-Chem simulation with multiple observations Zhiyuan Hu, Chun Zhao, Jianping Huang, L. Ruby Leung, Yun Qian, Hongbin Yu, Lei Huang, and Olga V. Kalashnikova Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1725-1746, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1725-2016, 2016 This study conducts the simulation of WRF-Chem with the quasi-global configuration for 2010–2014, and evaluates the simulation with multiple observation datasets for the first time. This study demonstrates that the WRF-Chem quasi-global simulation can be used for investigating trans-Pacific transport of aerosols and providing reasonable inflow chemical boundaries for the western USA to further understand the impact of transported pollutants on the regional air quality and climate.
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  • 75
    Publication Date: 2016-05-27
    Description: Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6 Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Tony Payne, Eric Larour, Helene Seroussi, Heiko Goelzer, William Lipscomb, Jonathan Gregory, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Andrew Shepherd Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-105,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) This paper describes an experimental protocol designed to quantify and understand the global sea level that arises due to past, present and future changes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, along with investigating ice sheet–climate feedbacks. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) protocol includes targeted experiments, and a set of output diagnostic related to ice sheets, that are part of the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 2016-05-12
    Description: Coupling aerosol optics to the MATCH (v5.5.0) chemical transport model and the SALSA (v1) aerosol microphysics module Emma Andersson and Michael Kahnert Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1803-1826, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1803-2016, 2016 Modelling aerosol optical properties is a notoriously difficult task due to the particles' complex morphologies and compositions. Yet aerosol particles and their optical properties are important for chemistry-climate modelling and remote sensing applications. In this study we aim to find answers to whether or not a detailed description of aerosol particles gives a significant impact on modelled radiative properties.
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  • 77
    Publication Date: 2016-05-12
    Description: The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6 Mark J. Webb, Timothy Andrews, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Sandrine Bony, Christopher S. Bretherton, Robin Chadwick, Hélène Chepfer, Hervé Douville, Peter Good, Jennifer E. Kay, Stephen A. Klein, Roger Marchand, Brian Medeiros, A. Pier Siebesma, Christopher B. Skinner, Bjorn Stevens, George Tselioudis, Yoko Tsushima, and Masahiro Watanabe Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-70,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) aims to inform future climate change assessments by improving the understanding and evaluation of cloud-climate feedback mechanisms and regional changes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments with a set of cloud related output diagnostics as part of the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
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  • 78
    Publication Date: 2016-05-12
    Description: The weather@home regional climate modelling project for Australia and New Zealand Mitchell T. Black, David J. Karoly, Suzanne M. Rosier, Sam M. Dean, Andrew D. King, Neil R. Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, Andy Bowery, David Wallom, Richard G. Jones, Friederike E. L. Otto, and Myles R. Allen Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-100,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) This study presents a citizen science computing project, known as weather@home Australia-New Zealand, which runs climate models on thousands of home computers. By harnessing the power of volunteers' computers, this project is capable of simulating extreme weather events over Australia and New Zealand under different climate scenarios.
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  • 79
    Publication Date: 2016-07-13
    Description: Multi-sensor cloud and aerosol retrieval simulator and remote sensing from model parameters – Part 2: Aerosols Galina Wind, Arlindo M. da Silva, Peter M. Norris, Steven Platnick, Shana Mattoo, and Robert C. Levy Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2377-2389, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2377-2016, 2016 The MCARS code creates sensor radiances using model-generated atmospheric columns and actual sensor and solar geometry. MCARS output looks like real data, so it is usable by any code that reads MODIS data. MCARS output can be used to test remote-sensing retrieval algorithms. Users know what went into creating the radiance: atmosphere, surface, clouds, and aerosols. Models can use MCARS output to create new parameterizations of relations of atmospheric physical quantities and measured radiances.
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  • 80
    Publication Date: 2016-07-13
    Description: AerChemMIP: Quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6 William J. Collins, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz, Olivier Boucher, Veronika Eyring, Michaela I. Hegglin, Amanda Maycock, Gunnar Myhre, Michael Prather, Drew Shindell, and Steven J. Smith Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-139,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) We have designed a set of climate model experiments called the "Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project" (AerChemMIP). These are designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically-reactive gases in the climate models that are used to simulate past and future climate. We hope that many climate modelling centres will choose to run these experiments to help understand the contribution of aerosols and chemistry to climate change.
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  • 81
    Publication Date: 2016-07-14
    Description: Application of the adjoint approach to optimise the initial conditions of a turbidity current Samuel D. Parkinson, Simon W. Funke, Jon Hill, Matthew D. Piggott, and Peter A. Allison Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-136,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) Turbidity currents are one of the main drivers for sediment transport from the continental shelf to the deep ocean. The resulting sediment deposits can reach hundreds of kilometres into the ocean. Computer models that simulate turbidity currents and the resulting sediment deposit can help to understand their general behaviour. However, in order to recreate real-world scenarios, the challenge is to find the turbidity current parameters that reproduce the observations of sediment deposits. This paper demonstrates a solution to the inverse sediment transportation problem: for a known sedimentary deposit, the developed model reconstructs details about the turbidity current that produced these deposits. The reconstruction is constrained here by a shallow water sediment-laden density current model, which is discretised by the finite element method and an adaptive time-stepping scheme. The model is differentiated using the adjoint approach and an efficient gradient-based optimisation method is applied to identify turbidity parameters which minimise the misfit between modelled and observed field sediment deposits. The capabilities of this approach are demonstrated using measurements taken in the Miocene-age Marnoso Arenacea Formation (Italy). We find that whilst the model cannot match the deposit exactly due to limitations in the physical processes simulated, it provides valuable insights into the depositional processes and represents a significant advance in our toolset for interpreting turbidity current deposits.
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  • 82
    Publication Date: 2016-07-19
    Description: Calibrating a global three-dimensional biogeochemical ocean model (MOPS-1.0) Iris Kriest, Volkmar Sauerland, Samar Khatiwala, Anand Srivastav, and Andreas Oschlies Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-173,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) Global biogeochemical ocean models are subject to a high level of parametric uncertainty. This may be of consequence for their skill with respect to accurately describing features of the present ocean, and their sensitivity to possible environmental changes. We present first results from a framework that combines an offline biogeochemical tracer transport model with an Estimation of Distribution Algorithm, calibrating six biogeochemical model parameters against observed oxygen and nutrients.
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  • 83
    Publication Date: 2016-07-23
    Description: Quantitative evaluation of numerical integration schemes for Lagrangian particle dispersion models Huda Mohd. Ramli and J. Gavin Esler Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2441-2457, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2441-2016, 2016 A rigorous methodology is presented to assess numerical integration schemes for stochastic models in atmospheric dispersion known as Lagrangian particle dispersion models. A series of one-dimensional test problems modelling dispersion in the atmospheric boundary layer is used to evaluate commonly used stochastic integration schemes. The results allow for optimal time-step selection for each scheme and recommendations to be made for use in operational models.
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  • 84
    Publication Date: 2016-07-23
    Description: Improved representation of plant functional types and physiology in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES v4.2) using plant trait information Anna B. Harper, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris D. Jones, Stephen Sitch, Lina M. Mercado, Margriet Groenendijk, Eddy Robertson, Jens Kattge, Gerhard Bönisch, Owen K. Atkin, Michael Bahn, Johannes Cornelissen, Ülo Niinemets, Vladimir Onipchenko, Josep Peñuelas, Lourens Poorter, Peter B. Reich, Nadjeda A. Soudzilovskaia, and Peter van Bodegom Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2415-2440, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2415-2016, 2016 Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are used to predict the response of vegetation to climate change. We improved the representation of carbon uptake by ecosystems in a DGVM by including a wider range of trade-offs between nutrient allocation to photosynthetic capacity and leaf structure, based on observed plant traits from a worldwide data base. The improved model has higher rates of photosynthesis and net C uptake by plants, and more closely matches observations at site and global scales.
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  • 85
    Publication Date: 2016-07-26
    Description: Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP +), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP +) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1) Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Stephen L. Cornford, Gaël Durand, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert M. Gladstone, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, Daniel F. Martin, Pierre Mathiot, Frank Pattyn, and Hélène Seroussi Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2471-2497, doi:10.5880/PIK.2016.002, 2016 Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers, including assessing their contributions to sea level change. Here we describe the idealized experiments that make up three interrelated Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities.
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  • 86
    Publication Date: 2016-07-30
    Description: Finding the Goldilocks zone: Compression-error trade-off for large gridded datasets Jeremy D. Silver and Charles S. Zender Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-177,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) Many modern scientific research projects generate large amounts of data. Storage space is valuable and may be limited, hence compression is vital. We tested different compression methods for large gridded datasets, assessing the space savings and the amount of precision lost. We found a general trade-off between precision and compression, and that the method that optimises this trade-off depends on the dataset. A method introduced here proved to be a competitive archive format for gridded data.
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  • 87
    Publication Date: 2016-07-30
    Description: Exploring global surface temperature pattern scaling methodologies and assumptions from a CMIP5 model ensemble Cary Lynch, Corinne Hartin, Ben Bond-Lamberty, and Ben Kravitz Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-170,2016 Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments) Pattern scaling is used to explore uncertainty in future forcing scenarios and assess local climate sensitivity to global temperature change. This paper examines the two dominant pattern scaling methods using a multi-model ensemble with two future socio-economic storylines. We find that high latitudes show the strongest sensitivity to global temperature change and that the simple least squared regression approach to generation of patterns is a better fit to projected global temperature.
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  • 88
    Publication Date: 2013-09-10
    Description: The Chemistry CATT-BRAMS model (CCATT-BRAMS 4.5): a regional atmospheric model system for integrated air quality and weather forecasting and research Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1389-1405, 2013 Author(s): K. M. Longo, S. R. Freitas, M. Pirre, V. Marécal, L. F. Rodrigues, J. Panetta, M. F. Alonso, N. E. Rosário, D. S. Moreira, M. S. Gácita, J. Arteta, R. Fonseca, R. Stockler, D. M. Katsurayama, A. Fazenda, and M. Bela Coupled Chemistry Aerosol-Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CCATT-BRAMS, version 4.5) is an on-line regional chemical transport model designed for local and regional studies of atmospheric chemistry from the surface to the lower stratosphere suitable both for operational and research purposes. It includes gaseous/aqueous chemistry, photochemistry, scavenging and dry deposition. The CCATT-BRAMS model takes advantage of BRAMS-specific development for the tropics/subtropics as well as the recent availability of preprocessing tools for chemical mechanisms and fast codes for photolysis rates. BRAMS includes state-of-the-art physical parameterizations and dynamic formulations to simulate atmospheric circulations down to the meter. This on-line coupling of meteorology and chemistry allows the system to be used for simultaneous weather and chemical composition forecasts as well as potential feedback between the two. The entire system is made of three preprocessing software tools for user-defined chemical mechanisms, aerosol and trace gas emissions fields and the interpolation of initial and boundary conditions for meteorology and chemistry. In this paper, the model description is provided along with the evaluations performed by using observational data obtained from ground-based stations, instruments aboard aircrafts and retrieval from space remote sensing. The evaluation accounts for model applications at different scales from megacities and the Amazon Basin up to the intercontinental region of the Southern Hemisphere.
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  • 89
    Publication Date: 2013-09-13
    Description: δ 18 O water isotope in the i LOVECLIM model (version 1.0) – Part 1: Implementation and verification Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1481-1491, 2013 Author(s): D. M. Roche A new 18 O stable water isotope scheme is developed for three components of the i LOVECLIM coupled climate model: atmospheric, oceanic and land surface. The equations required to reproduce the fractionation of stable water isotopes in the simplified atmospheric model ECBilt are developed consistently with the moisture scheme. Simplifications in the processes are made to account for the simplified vertical structure including only one moist layer. Implementation of these equations together with a passive tracer scheme for the ocean and a equilibrium fractionation scheme for the land surface leads to the closure of the (isotopic-) water budget in our climate system. Following the implementation, verification of the existence of usual δ 18 O to climatic relationships are performed for the Rayleigh distillation, the Dansgaard relationship and the δ 18 O –salinity relationship. Advantages and caveats of the approach taken are outlined. The isotopic fields simulated are shown to reproduce most expected oxygen-18–climate relationships with the notable exception of the isotopic composition in Antarctica.
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  • 90
    Publication Date: 2013-09-13
    Description: δ 18 O water isotope in the i LOVECLIM model (version 1.0) – Part 3: A palaeo-perspective based on present-day data–model comparison for oxygen stable isotopes in carbonates Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1505-1516, 2013 Author(s): T. Caley and D. M. Roche Oxygen stable isotopes (δ 18 O) are among the most useful tools in palaeoclimatology/palaeoceanography. Simulation of oxygen stable isotopes allows testing how the past variability of these isotopes in water can be interpreted. By modelling the proxy directly in the model, the results can also be directly compared with the data. Water isotopes have been implemented in the global three-dimensional model of intermediate complexity i LOVECLIM, allowing fully coupled atmosphere–ocean simulations. In this study, we present the validation of the model results for present-day climate against the global database for oxygen stable isotopes in carbonates. The limitation of the model together with the processes operating in the natural environment reveal the complexity of use the continental calcite-δ 18 O signal of speleothems for a global quantitative data–model comparison exercise. On the contrary, the reconstructed surface ocean calcite-δ 18 O signal in i LOVECLIM does show a very good agreement with the late Holocene database (foraminifers) at the global and regional scales. Our results indicate that temperature and the isotopic composition of the seawater are the main control on the fossil-δ 18 O signal recorded in foraminifer shells when all species are grouped together. Depth habitat, seasonality and other ecological effects play a more significant role when individual species are considered. We argue that a data–model comparison for surface ocean calcite δ 18 O in past climates, such as the Last Glacial Maximum (≈ 21 000 yr), could constitute an interesting tool for mapping the potential shifts of the frontal systems and circulation changes throughout time. Similarly, the potential changes in intermediate oceanic circulation systems in the past could be documented by a data (benthic foraminifers)-model comparison exercise whereas future investigations are necessary in order to quantitatively compare the results with data for the deep ocean.
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  • 91
    Publication Date: 2013-09-17
    Description: Assimilating water column and satellite data for marine export production estimation Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1575-1590, 2013 Author(s): X. Yao and R. Schlitzer Recent advances in satellite retrieval methodology now allow for estimation of particular organic carbon (POC) concentration in ocean surface waters directly from satellite-based optical data. Because of the good coverage, these data reveal small-scale spatial and temporal concentration gradients and document the evolution of surface water POC as well as the underlying driving biogeochemical processes throughout the seasons. Water column nutrient data also reveal biogeochemical activity. However, because of the scarcity of data, the deduction of temporal changes of particle production and export is not possible in most parts of the ocean. Here we present first results from a new study combining both data streams, thereby exploiting the high spatio-temporal resolution of surface POC concentrations from satellite optical sensors with water column nutrient data having sparser coverage but providing information throughout the entire water column. We use a medium-resolution global model with steady-state 3-D circulation that has been optimized by fitting to a large number of hydrographic parameters and tracers, including CFCs and natural radiocarbon. Production and export of POC is allowed to vary monthly, and the magnitudes of the monthly export fluxes are determined by fitting the model to satellite POC data as well as water column nutrient data using the adjoint method. Two cases have been investigated: (1) the production rate of POC is set to be proportional to export production (EP) and the seasonal changes are assumed sinusoidal (meridionally varying amplitude and phase), and (2) the POC production rate is linked to primary production rates (literature). Both cases were run with the same initial state and model settings, and show total cost function decreases of 12 and 95%, respectively. The POC misfit term alone decreased by 75 and 99.8%. The integrated annual global POC exports of the two cases are 9.9 and 12.3 Gt C yr −1 , respectively. Overall, the remaining POC and phosphate misfits of both solutions are considered too large, and the difference fields still exhibit significant systematic geographical patterns. This indicates that the present model runs are too simplistic and do not fully explain the data. Further, more refined model setups are needed.
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  • 92
    Publication Date: 2013-09-28
    Description: Enhancing the representation of subgrid land surface characteristics in land surface models Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1609-1622, 2013 Author(s): Y. Ke, L. R. Leung, M. Huang, and H. Li Land surface heterogeneity has long been recognized as important to represent in the land surface models. In most existing land surface models, the spatial variability of surface cover is represented as subgrid composition of multiple surface cover types, although subgrid topography also has major controls on surface processes. In this study, we developed a new subgrid classification method (SGC) that accounts for variability of both topography and vegetation cover. Each model grid cell was represented with a variable number of elevation classes and each elevation class was further described by a variable number of vegetation types optimized for each model grid given a predetermined total number of land response units (LRUs). The subgrid structure of the Community Land Model (CLM) was used to illustrate the newly developed method in this study. Although the new method increases the computational burden in the model simulation compared to the CLM subgrid vegetation representation, it greatly reduced the variations of elevation within each subgrid class and is able to explain at least 80% of the total subgrid plant functional types (PFTs). The new method was also evaluated against two other subgrid methods (SGC1 and SGC2) that assigned fixed numbers of elevation and vegetation classes for each model grid (SGC1: M elevation bands– N PFTs method; SGC2: N PFTs– M elevation bands method). Implemented at five model resolutions (0.1°, 0.25°, 0.5°, 1.0°and 2.0°) with three maximum-allowed total number of LRUs (i.e., N LRU of 24, 18 and 12) over North America (NA), the new method yielded more computationally efficient subgrid representation compared to SGC1 and SGC2, particularly at coarser model resolutions and moderate computational intensity ( N LRU = 18). It also explained the most PFTs and elevation variability that is more homogeneously distributed spatially. The SGC method will be implemented in CLM over the NA continent to assess its impacts on simulating land surface processes.
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  • 93
    Publication Date: 2013-09-11
    Description: An efficient method to generate a perturbed parameter ensemble of a fully coupled AOGCM without flux-adjustment Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1447-1462, 2013 Author(s): P. J. Irvine, L. J. Gregoire, D. J. Lunt, and P. J. Valdes We present a simple method to generate a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of a fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), HadCM3, without requiring flux-adjustment. The aim was to produce an ensemble that samples parametric uncertainty in some key variables and gives a plausible representation of the climate. Six atmospheric parameters, a sea-ice parameter and an ocean parameter were jointly perturbed within a reasonable range to generate an initial group of 200 members. To screen out implausible ensemble members, 20 yr pre-industrial control simulations were run and members whose temperature responses to the parameter perturbations were projected to be outside the range of 13.6 ± 2 °C, i.e. near to the observed pre-industrial global mean, were discarded. Twenty-one members, including the standard unperturbed model, were accepted, covering almost the entire span of the eight parameters, challenging the argument that without flux-adjustment parameter ranges would be unduly restricted. This ensemble was used in 2 experiments; an 800 yr pre-industrial and a 150 yr quadrupled CO 2 simulation. The behaviour of the PPE for the pre-industrial control compared well to ERA-40 reanalysis data and the CMIP3 ensemble for a number of surface and atmospheric column variables with the exception of a few members in the Tropics. However, we find that members of the PPE with low values of the entrainment rate coefficient show very large increases in upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapour concentrations in response to elevated CO 2 and one member showed an implausible nonlinear climate response, and as such will be excluded from future experiments with this ensemble. The outcome of this study is a PPE of a fully-coupled AOGCM which samples parametric uncertainty and a simple methodology which would be applicable to other GCMs.
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  • 94
    Publication Date: 2013-09-13
    Description: GAPPARD: a computationally efficient method of approximating gap-scale disturbance in vegetation models Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1517-1542, 2013 Author(s): M. Scherstjanoi, J. O. Kaplan, E. Thürig, and H. Lischke Models of vegetation dynamics that are designed for application at spatial scales larger than individual forest gaps suffer from several limitations. Typically, either a population average approximation is used that results in unrealistic tree allometry and forest stand structure, or models have a high computational demand because they need to simulate both a series of age-based cohorts and a number of replicate patches to account for stochastic gap-scale disturbances. The detail required by the latter method increases the number of calculations by two to three orders of magnitude compared to the less realistic population average approach. In an effort to increase the efficiency of dynamic vegetation models without sacrificing realism, we developed a new method for simulating stand-replacing disturbances that is both accurate and faster than approaches that use replicate patches. The GAPPARD (approximating GAP model results with a Probabilistic Approach to account for stand Replacing Disturbances) method works by postprocessing the output of deterministic, undisturbed simulations of a cohort-based vegetation model by deriving the distribution of patch ages at any point in time on the basis of a disturbance probability. With this distribution, the expected value of any output variable can be calculated from the output values of the deterministic undisturbed run at the time corresponding to the patch age. To account for temporal changes in model forcing (e.g., as a result of climate change), GAPPARD performs a series of deterministic simulations and interpolates between the results in the postprocessing step. We integrated the GAPPARD method in the vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, and evaluated it in a series of simulations along an altitudinal transect of an inner-Alpine valley. We obtained results very similar to the output of the original LPJ-GUESS model that uses 100 replicate patches, but simulation time was reduced by approximately the factor 10. Our new method is therefore highly suited for rapidly approximating LPJ-GUESS results, and provides the opportunity for future studies over large spatial domains, allows easier parameterization of tree species, faster identification of areas of interesting simulation results, and comparisons with large-scale datasets and results of other forest models.
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  • 95
    Publication Date: 2013-06-08
    Description: On the parallelization of atmospheric inversions of CO 2 surface fluxes within a variational framework Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 783-790, 2013 Author(s): F. Chevallier The variational formulation of Bayes' theorem allows inferring CO 2 sources and sinks from atmospheric concentrations at much higher time–space resolution than the ensemble or analytical approaches. However, it usually exhibits limited scalable parallelism. This limitation hinders global atmospheric inversions operated on decadal time scales and regional ones with kilometric spatial scales because of the computational cost of the underlying transport model that has to be run at each iteration of the variational minimization. Here, we introduce a physical parallelization (PP) of variational atmospheric inversions. In the PP, the inversion still manages a single physically and statistically consistent window, but the transport model is run in parallel overlapping sub-segments in order to massively reduce the computation wall-clock time of the inversion. For global inversions, a simplification of transport modelling is described to connect the output of all segments. We demonstrate the performance of the approach on a global inversion for CO 2 with a 32 yr inversion window (1979–2010) with atmospheric measurements from 81 sites of the NOAA global cooperative air sampling network. In this case, we show that the duration of the inversion is reduced by a seven-fold factor (from months to days), while still processing the three decades consistently and with improved numerical stability.
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  • 96
    Publication Date: 2013-04-10
    Description: Inclusion of ash and SO 2 emissions from volcanic eruptions in WRF-Chem: development and some applications Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 457-468, 2013 Author(s): M. Stuefer, S. R. Freitas, G. Grell, P. Webley, S. Peckham, S. A. McKeen, and S. D. Egan We describe a new functionality within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with coupled Chemistry (WRF-Chem) that allows simulating emission, transport, dispersion, transformation and sedimentation of pollutants released during volcanic activities. Emissions from both an explosive eruption case and a relatively calm degassing situation are considered using the most recent volcanic emission databases. A preprocessor tool provides emission fields and additional information needed to establish the initial three-dimensional cloud umbrella/vertical distribution within the transport model grid, as well as the timing and duration of an eruption. From this source condition, the transport, dispersion and sedimentation of the ash cloud can be realistically simulated by WRF-Chem using its own dynamics and physical parameterization as well as data assimilation. Examples of model applications include a comparison of tephra fall deposits from the 1989 eruption of Mount Redoubt (Alaska) and the dispersion of ash from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland. Both model applications show good coincidence between WRF-Chem and observations.
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  • 97
    Publication Date: 2013-04-11
    Description: PORT, a CESM tool for the diagnosis of radiative forcing Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 469-476, 2013 Author(s): A. J. Conley, J.-F. Lamarque, F. Vitt, W. D. Collins, and J. Kiehl The Parallel Offline Radiative Transfer (PORT) model is a stand-alone tool, driven by model-generated datasets, that can be used for any radiation calculation that the underlying radiative transfer schemes can perform, such as diagnosing radiative forcing. In its present distribution, PORT isolates the radiation code from the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). The current configuration focuses on CAM4 radiation with the constituents as represented in present-day conditions in CESM1, along with their optical properties. PORT includes an implementation of stratospheric temperature adjustment under the assumption of fixed dynamical heating, which is necessary to compute radiative forcing in addition to the more straightforward instantaneous radiative forcing. PORT can be extended to use radiative constituent distributions from other models or model simulations. Ultimately, PORT can be used with various radiative transfer models. As illustrations of the use of PORT, we perform the computation of radiative forcing from doubling of carbon dioxide, from the change of tropospheric ozone concentration from the year 1850 to 2000, and from present-day aerosols. The radiative forcing from tropospheric ozone (with respect to 1850) generated by a collection of model simulations under the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project is found to be 0.34 (with an intermodel standard deviation of 0.07) W m −2 . Present-day aerosol direct forcing (relative to no aerosols) is found to be −1.3 W m −2 .
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  • 98
    Publication Date: 2013-09-10
    Description: Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1429-1445, 2013 Author(s): M. Trail, A. P. Tsimpidi, P. Liu, K. Tsigaridis, Y. Hu, A. Nenes, and A. G. Russell Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model (RCM) to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas, northeastern, and southeastern US), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.
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  • 99
    Publication Date: 2013-09-10
    Description: The SOCOL version 3.0 chemistry–climate model: description, evaluation, and implications from an advanced transport algorithm Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1407-1427, 2013 Author(s): A. Stenke, M. Schraner, E. Rozanov, T. Egorova, B. Luo, and T. Peter We present the third generation of the coupled chemistry–climate model (CCM) SOCOL (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links). The most notable modifications compared to the previous model version are (1) the dynamical core has been updated with the fifth generation of the middle-atmosphere general circulation model MA-ECHAM (European Centre/HAMburg climate model), and (2) the advection of the chemical species is now calculated by a mass-conserving and shape-preserving flux-form transport scheme instead of the previously used hybrid advection scheme. The whole chemistry code has been rewritten according to the ECHAM5 infrastructure and transferred to Fortran95. In contrast to its predecessors, SOCOLvs3 is now fully parallelized. The performance of the new SOCOL version is evaluated on the basis of transient model simulations (1975–2004) with different horizontal (T31 and T42) resolutions, following the approach of the CCMVal-1 model validation activity. The advanced advection scheme significantly reduces the artificial loss and accumulation of tracer mass in regions with strong gradients that was observed in previous model versions. Compared to its predecessors, SOCOLvs3 generally shows more realistic distributions of chemical trace species, especially of total inorganic chlorine, in terms of the mean state, but also of the annual and interannual variability. Advancements with respect to model dynamics are for example a better representation of the stratospheric mean state in spring, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, and a slowdown of the upward propagation in the tropical lower stratosphere. Despite a large number of improvements model deficiencies still remain. Examples include a too-fast vertical ascent and/or horizontal mixing in the tropical stratosphere, the cold temperature bias in the lowermost polar stratosphere, and the overestimation of polar total ozone loss during Antarctic springtime.
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  • 100
    Publication Date: 2013-09-11
    Description: Stable water isotopes in the coupled atmosphere–land surface model ECHAM5-JSBACH Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1463-1480, 2013 Author(s): B. Haese, M. Werner, and G. Lohmann In this study we present first results of a new model development, ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso, where we have incorporated the stable water isotopes H 2 18 O and HDO as tracers in the hydrological cycle of the coupled atmosphere–land surface model ECHAM5-JSBACH. The ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso model was run under present-day climate conditions at two different resolutions (T31L19, T63L31). A comparison between ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso and ECHAM5-wiso shows that the coupling has a strong impact on the simulated temperature and soil wetness. Caused by these changes of temperature and the hydrological cycle, the δ 18 O in precipitation also shows variations from −4‰ up to 4‰. One of the strongest anomalies is shown over northeast Asia where, due to an increase of temperature, the δ 18 O in precipitation increases as well. In order to analyze the sensitivity of the fractionation processes over land, we compare a set of simulations with various implementations of these processes over the land surface. The simulations allow us to distinguish between no fractionation, fractionation included in the evaporation flux (from bare soil) and also fractionation included in both evaporation and transpiration (from water transport through plants) fluxes. While the isotopic composition of the soil water may change for δ 18 O by up to +8&permil:, the simulated δ 18 O in precipitation shows only slight differences on the order of ±1‰. The simulated isotopic composition of precipitation fits well with the available observations from the GNIP (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation) database.
    Print ISSN: 1991-959X
    Electronic ISSN: 1991-9603
    Topics: Geosciences
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