ALBERT

Description: The Chemistry CATT-BRAMS model (CCATT-BRAMS 4.5): a regional atmospheric model system for integrated air quality and weather forecasting and research Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1389-1405, 2013 Author(s): K. M. Longo, S. R. Freitas, M. Pirre, V. Marécal, L. F. Rodrigues, J. Panetta, M. F. Alonso, N. E. Rosário, D. S. Moreira, M. S. Gácita, J. Arteta, R. Fonseca, R. Stockler, D. M. Katsurayama, A. Fazenda, and M. Bela Coupled Chemistry Aerosol-Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CCATT-BRAMS, version 4.5) is an on-line regional chemical transport model designed for local and regional studies of atmospheric chemistry from the surface to the lower stratosphere suitable both for operational and research purposes. It includes gaseous/aqueous chemistry, photochemistry, scavenging and dry deposition. The CCATT-BRAMS model takes advantage of BRAMS-specific development for the tropics/subtropics as well as the recent availability of preprocessing tools for chemical mechanisms and fast codes for photolysis rates. BRAMS includes state-of-the-art physical parameterizations and dynamic formulations to simulate atmospheric circulations down to the meter. This on-line coupling of meteorology and chemistry allows the system to be used for simultaneous weather and chemical composition forecasts as well as potential feedback between the two. The entire system is made of three preprocessing software tools for user-defined chemical mechanisms, aerosol and trace gas emissions fields and the interpolation of initial and boundary conditions for meteorology and chemistry. In this paper, the model description is provided along with the evaluations performed by using observational data obtained from ground-based stations, instruments aboard aircrafts and retrieval from space remote sensing. The evaluation accounts for model applications at different scales from megacities and the Amazon Basin up to the intercontinental region of the Southern Hemisphere.

Description: δ 18 O water isotope in the i LOVECLIM model (version 1.0) – Part 1: Implementation and verification Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1481-1491, 2013 Author(s): D. M. Roche A new 18 O stable water isotope scheme is developed for three components of the i LOVECLIM coupled climate model: atmospheric, oceanic and land surface. The equations required to reproduce the fractionation of stable water isotopes in the simplified atmospheric model ECBilt are developed consistently with the moisture scheme. Simplifications in the processes are made to account for the simplified vertical structure including only one moist layer. Implementation of these equations together with a passive tracer scheme for the ocean and a equilibrium fractionation scheme for the land surface leads to the closure of the (isotopic-) water budget in our climate system. Following the implementation, verification of the existence of usual δ 18 O to climatic relationships are performed for the Rayleigh distillation, the Dansgaard relationship and the δ 18 O –salinity relationship. Advantages and caveats of the approach taken are outlined. The isotopic fields simulated are shown to reproduce most expected oxygen-18–climate relationships with the notable exception of the isotopic composition in Antarctica.

Description: δ 18 O water isotope in the i LOVECLIM model (version 1.0) – Part 3: A palaeo-perspective based on present-day data–model comparison for oxygen stable isotopes in carbonates Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1505-1516, 2013 Author(s): T. Caley and D. M. Roche Oxygen stable isotopes (δ 18 O) are among the most useful tools in palaeoclimatology/palaeoceanography. Simulation of oxygen stable isotopes allows testing how the past variability of these isotopes in water can be interpreted. By modelling the proxy directly in the model, the results can also be directly compared with the data. Water isotopes have been implemented in the global three-dimensional model of intermediate complexity i LOVECLIM, allowing fully coupled atmosphere–ocean simulations. In this study, we present the validation of the model results for present-day climate against the global database for oxygen stable isotopes in carbonates. The limitation of the model together with the processes operating in the natural environment reveal the complexity of use the continental calcite-δ 18 O signal of speleothems for a global quantitative data–model comparison exercise. On the contrary, the reconstructed surface ocean calcite-δ 18 O signal in i LOVECLIM does show a very good agreement with the late Holocene database (foraminifers) at the global and regional scales. Our results indicate that temperature and the isotopic composition of the seawater are the main control on the fossil-δ 18 O signal recorded in foraminifer shells when all species are grouped together. Depth habitat, seasonality and other ecological effects play a more significant role when individual species are considered. We argue that a data–model comparison for surface ocean calcite δ 18 O in past climates, such as the Last Glacial Maximum (≈ 21 000 yr), could constitute an interesting tool for mapping the potential shifts of the frontal systems and circulation changes throughout time. Similarly, the potential changes in intermediate oceanic circulation systems in the past could be documented by a data (benthic foraminifers)-model comparison exercise whereas future investigations are necessary in order to quantitatively compare the results with data for the deep ocean.

Description: Can we determine what controls the spatio-temporal distribution of d-excess and 17 O-excess in precipitation using the LMDZ general circulation model? Climate of the Past, 9, 2173-2193, 2013 Author(s): C. Risi, A. Landais, R. Winkler, and F. Vimeux Combined measurements of the H 2 18 O and HDO isotopic ratios in precipitation, leading to second-order parameter D-excess, have provided additional constraints on past climates compared to the H 2 18 O isotopic ratio alone. More recently, measurements of H 2 17 O have led to another second-order parameter: 17 O-excess. Recent studies suggest that 17 O-excess in polar ice may provide information on evaporative conditions at the moisture source. However, the processes controlling the spatio-temporal distribution of 17 O-excess are still far from being fully understood. We use the isotopic general circulation model (GCM) LMDZ to better understand what controls d-excess and 17 O-excess in precipitation at present-day (PD) and during the last glacial maximum (LGM). The simulation of D-excess and 17 O-excess is evaluated against measurements in meteoric water, water vapor and polar ice cores. A set of sensitivity tests and diagnostics are used to quantify the relative effects of evaporative conditions (sea surface temperature and relative humidity), Rayleigh distillation, mixing between vapors from different origins, precipitation re-evaporation and supersaturation during condensation at low temperature. In LMDZ, simulations suggest that in the tropics convective processes and rain re-evaporation are important controls on precipitation D-excess and 17 O-excess. In higher latitudes, the effect of distillation, mixing between vapors from different origins and supersaturation are the most important controls. For example, the lower d-excess and 17 O-excess at LGM simulated at LGM are mainly due to the supersaturation effect. The effect of supersaturation is however very sensitive to a parameter whose tuning would require more measurements and laboratory experiments. Evaporative conditions had previously been suggested to be key controlling factors of d-excess and 17 O-excess, but LMDZ underestimates their role. More generally, some shortcomings in the simulation of 17 O-excess by LMDZ suggest that general circulation models are not yet the perfect tool to quantify with confidence all processes controlling 17 O-excess.

Description: Similarity estimators for irregular and age uncertain time series Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5299-5346, 2013 Author(s): K. Rehfeld and J. Kurths Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many datasets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel based cross correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60–55% (in the linear case) to 53–42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity contributes less, particularly for the adapted Gaussian-kernel based estimators and the event synchronization function. The introduced link strength concept summarizes the hypothesis test results and balances the individual strengths of the estimators: while gXCF is particularly suitable for short and irregular time series, gMI and the ESF can identify nonlinear dependencies. ESF could, in particular, be suitable to study extreme event dynamics in paleoclimate records. Programs to analyze paleoclimatic time series for significant dependencies are included in a freely available software toolbox.

Description: Assimilating water column and satellite data for marine export production estimation Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1575-1590, 2013 Author(s): X. Yao and R. Schlitzer Recent advances in satellite retrieval methodology now allow for estimation of particular organic carbon (POC) concentration in ocean surface waters directly from satellite-based optical data. Because of the good coverage, these data reveal small-scale spatial and temporal concentration gradients and document the evolution of surface water POC as well as the underlying driving biogeochemical processes throughout the seasons. Water column nutrient data also reveal biogeochemical activity. However, because of the scarcity of data, the deduction of temporal changes of particle production and export is not possible in most parts of the ocean. Here we present first results from a new study combining both data streams, thereby exploiting the high spatio-temporal resolution of surface POC concentrations from satellite optical sensors with water column nutrient data having sparser coverage but providing information throughout the entire water column. We use a medium-resolution global model with steady-state 3-D circulation that has been optimized by fitting to a large number of hydrographic parameters and tracers, including CFCs and natural radiocarbon. Production and export of POC is allowed to vary monthly, and the magnitudes of the monthly export fluxes are determined by fitting the model to satellite POC data as well as water column nutrient data using the adjoint method. Two cases have been investigated: (1) the production rate of POC is set to be proportional to export production (EP) and the seasonal changes are assumed sinusoidal (meridionally varying amplitude and phase), and (2) the POC production rate is linked to primary production rates (literature). Both cases were run with the same initial state and model settings, and show total cost function decreases of 12 and 95%, respectively. The POC misfit term alone decreased by 75 and 99.8%. The integrated annual global POC exports of the two cases are 9.9 and 12.3 Gt C yr −1 , respectively. Overall, the remaining POC and phosphate misfits of both solutions are considered too large, and the difference fields still exhibit significant systematic geographical patterns. This indicates that the present model runs are too simplistic and do not fully explain the data. Further, more refined model setups are needed.

Description: Impact of precession on the climate, vegetation and fire activity in southern Africa during MIS4 Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5391-5438, 2013 Author(s): M.-N. Woillez, G. Levavasseur, A.-L. Daniau, M. Kageyama, D. H. Urrego, and M.-F. Sánchez-Goñi The relationships between climate, vegetation and fires are a major subject of investigation in the context of climate change. In southern Africa, fire is known to play a crucial role in the existence of grasslands and Mediterranean-like biomes. Microcharcoal-based reconstructions of past fire activity in that region have shown a tight correlation between grass-fueled fires and the precessional cycle, with maximum fire activity during maxima of the climatic precession index. These changes have been interpreted as the result of changes in fuel load in response to precipitation changes in eastern southern Africa. Here we use the general circulation model IPSL_CM5A and the dynamical vegetation model LPJ-LMfire to investigate the response of climate, vegetation and fire activity to precession changes in southern Africa during Marine Isotopic Stage 4. We perform two climatic simulations, for a maximum and minimum of the precession index, and use a statistical downscaling method to increase the spatial resolution of the IPSL_CM5A outputs over southern Africa and perform high-resolution simulations of the vegetation and fire activity. Our results show an anti-correlation between the North and South African monsoons in response to precession changes. A decrease of the precession climatic index leads to a precipitation decrease in the summer rainfall area of southern Africa. The drying of climate leads to a decrease of vegetation cover and fire activity. Our results are in qualitative agreement with data and confirm that fire activity in southern Africa is strongly dependent on the vegetation type.

Description: Enhancing the representation of subgrid land surface characteristics in land surface models Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1609-1622, 2013 Author(s): Y. Ke, L. R. Leung, M. Huang, and H. Li Land surface heterogeneity has long been recognized as important to represent in the land surface models. In most existing land surface models, the spatial variability of surface cover is represented as subgrid composition of multiple surface cover types, although subgrid topography also has major controls on surface processes. In this study, we developed a new subgrid classification method (SGC) that accounts for variability of both topography and vegetation cover. Each model grid cell was represented with a variable number of elevation classes and each elevation class was further described by a variable number of vegetation types optimized for each model grid given a predetermined total number of land response units (LRUs). The subgrid structure of the Community Land Model (CLM) was used to illustrate the newly developed method in this study. Although the new method increases the computational burden in the model simulation compared to the CLM subgrid vegetation representation, it greatly reduced the variations of elevation within each subgrid class and is able to explain at least 80% of the total subgrid plant functional types (PFTs). The new method was also evaluated against two other subgrid methods (SGC1 and SGC2) that assigned fixed numbers of elevation and vegetation classes for each model grid (SGC1: M elevation bands– N PFTs method; SGC2: N PFTs– M elevation bands method). Implemented at five model resolutions (0.1°, 0.25°, 0.5°, 1.0°and 2.0°) with three maximum-allowed total number of LRUs (i.e., N LRU of 24, 18 and 12) over North America (NA), the new method yielded more computationally efficient subgrid representation compared to SGC1 and SGC2, particularly at coarser model resolutions and moderate computational intensity ( N LRU = 18). It also explained the most PFTs and elevation variability that is more homogeneously distributed spatially. The SGC method will be implemented in CLM over the NA continent to assess its impacts on simulating land surface processes.

Description: Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781–1785 Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5157-5182, 2013 Author(s): P. Yiou, M. Boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, E. Garnier, F. Fluteau, and L. Menut This paper uses a method of atmospheric flow analogues to reconstruct an ensemble of atmospheric variables (namely sea-level pressure, surface temperature and wind speed) between 1781 and 1785. The properties of this ensemble are investigated and tested against observations of temperature. The goal of the paper is to assess whether the atmospheric circulation during the Laki volcanic eruption (in 1783) and the subsequent winter were similar to the conditions that prevailed in the winter 2009/2010 and during spring 2010. We find that the three months following the Laki eruption in June 1783 barely have analogues in 2010. The cold winter of 1783/1784 yields circulation analogues in 2009/2010. Our analysis suggests that it is unlikely that the Laki eruption was responsible for the cold winter of 1783/1784, of the relatively short memory of the atmospheric circulation.

Description: Seasonal changes in glacial polynya activity inferred from Weddell Sea varves Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5123-5156, 2013 Author(s): D. Sprenk, M. E. Weber, G. Kuhn, V. Wennrich, T. Hartmann, and K. Seelos The Weddell Sea and the associated Filchner-Rønne Ice Shelf constitute key regions for global bottom-water production today. However, little is known about bottom-water production under different climate and ice-sheet conditions. Therefore, we studied core PS1795, which consists primarily of fine-grained siliciclastic varves that were deposited on contourite ridges in the southeastern Weddell Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We conducted high-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis and grain-size measurements with the RADIUS tool (Seelos and Sirocko, 2005) using thin sections to characterize the two seasonal components of the varves at sub-mm resolution to distinguish the seasonal components of the varves. Bright layers contain coarser grains that can mainly be identified as quartz in the medium to coarse silt grain size. They also contain higher amounts of Si, Zr, Ca, and Sr, as well as more ice-rafted debris (IRD). Dark layers, on the other hand, contain finer particles such as mica and clay minerals from the chlorite and illite groups. In addition, chemical elements, Fe, Ti, Rb, and K are elevated as well. Based on these findings as well as on previous analyses on neighbouring cores, we propose a model of glacially enhanced thermohaline convection in front of a grounded ice sheet that is supported by seasonally variable coastal polynya activity. Accordingly, katabatic (i.e. offshore blowing) winds removed sea ice from the ice edge, leading to coastal polynya formation. We suggest that glacial processes were similar to today with stronger katabatic winds and enhanced coastal polynya activity during the winter season. If this is correct, silty layers are likely glacial winter deposits, when brine rejection was increased, leading to enhanced bottom water formation and increased sediment transport. Vice versa, finer-grained clayey layers were then deposited during summer, when coastal polynya activity was likely reduced.

Description: Is blue intensity ready to replace maximum latewood density as a strong temperature proxy? A tree-ring case study on Scots pine from northern Sweden Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5227-5261, 2013 Author(s): J. A. Björklund, B. E. Gunnarson, K. Seftigen, J. Esper, and H. W. Linderholm At high latitudes, where low temperatures mainly limit tree-growth, measurements of wood density (e.g. Maximum Latewood Density, MXD) using the X-Ray methodology provide a temperature proxy that is superior to that of TRW. Density measurements are however costly and time consuming and have lead to experimentation with optical flatbed scanners to produce Maximum Blue Intensity (BI max ). BI max is an excellent proxy for density on annual scale but very limited in skill on centennial scale. Discolouration between samples is limiting BI max where specific brightnesses can have different densities. To overcome this, the new un-exploited parameter Δ blue intensity (ΔBI) was constructed by using the brightness in the earlywood (BI EW ) as background, (BI max − BI EW = ΔBI). This parameter was tested on X-Ray material (MXD − earlywood density = ΔMXD) and showed great potential both as a quality control and as a booster of climate signals. Unfortunately since the relationship between grey scale and density is not linear, and between-sample brightness can differ tremendously for similar densities, ΔBI cannot fully match ΔMXD in skill as climate proxy on centennial scale. For ΔBI to stand alone, the range of brightness/density offset must be reduced. Further studies are needed to evaluate this possibility, and solutions might include heavier sample treatment (reflux with chemicals) or image-data treatment (digitally manipulating base-line levels of brightness).

Description: An efficient method to generate a perturbed parameter ensemble of a fully coupled AOGCM without flux-adjustment Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1447-1462, 2013 Author(s): P. J. Irvine, L. J. Gregoire, D. J. Lunt, and P. J. Valdes We present a simple method to generate a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of a fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), HadCM3, without requiring flux-adjustment. The aim was to produce an ensemble that samples parametric uncertainty in some key variables and gives a plausible representation of the climate. Six atmospheric parameters, a sea-ice parameter and an ocean parameter were jointly perturbed within a reasonable range to generate an initial group of 200 members. To screen out implausible ensemble members, 20 yr pre-industrial control simulations were run and members whose temperature responses to the parameter perturbations were projected to be outside the range of 13.6 ± 2 °C, i.e. near to the observed pre-industrial global mean, were discarded. Twenty-one members, including the standard unperturbed model, were accepted, covering almost the entire span of the eight parameters, challenging the argument that without flux-adjustment parameter ranges would be unduly restricted. This ensemble was used in 2 experiments; an 800 yr pre-industrial and a 150 yr quadrupled CO 2 simulation. The behaviour of the PPE for the pre-industrial control compared well to ERA-40 reanalysis data and the CMIP3 ensemble for a number of surface and atmospheric column variables with the exception of a few members in the Tropics. However, we find that members of the PPE with low values of the entrainment rate coefficient show very large increases in upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapour concentrations in response to elevated CO 2 and one member showed an implausible nonlinear climate response, and as such will be excluded from future experiments with this ensemble. The outcome of this study is a PPE of a fully-coupled AOGCM which samples parametric uncertainty and a simple methodology which would be applicable to other GCMs.

Description: GAPPARD: a computationally efficient method of approximating gap-scale disturbance in vegetation models Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1517-1542, 2013 Author(s): M. Scherstjanoi, J. O. Kaplan, E. Thürig, and H. Lischke Models of vegetation dynamics that are designed for application at spatial scales larger than individual forest gaps suffer from several limitations. Typically, either a population average approximation is used that results in unrealistic tree allometry and forest stand structure, or models have a high computational demand because they need to simulate both a series of age-based cohorts and a number of replicate patches to account for stochastic gap-scale disturbances. The detail required by the latter method increases the number of calculations by two to three orders of magnitude compared to the less realistic population average approach. In an effort to increase the efficiency of dynamic vegetation models without sacrificing realism, we developed a new method for simulating stand-replacing disturbances that is both accurate and faster than approaches that use replicate patches. The GAPPARD (approximating GAP model results with a Probabilistic Approach to account for stand Replacing Disturbances) method works by postprocessing the output of deterministic, undisturbed simulations of a cohort-based vegetation model by deriving the distribution of patch ages at any point in time on the basis of a disturbance probability. With this distribution, the expected value of any output variable can be calculated from the output values of the deterministic undisturbed run at the time corresponding to the patch age. To account for temporal changes in model forcing (e.g., as a result of climate change), GAPPARD performs a series of deterministic simulations and interpolates between the results in the postprocessing step. We integrated the GAPPARD method in the vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, and evaluated it in a series of simulations along an altitudinal transect of an inner-Alpine valley. We obtained results very similar to the output of the original LPJ-GUESS model that uses 100 replicate patches, but simulation time was reduced by approximately the factor 10. Our new method is therefore highly suited for rapidly approximating LPJ-GUESS results, and provides the opportunity for future studies over large spatial domains, allows easier parameterization of tree species, faster identification of areas of interesting simulation results, and comparisons with large-scale datasets and results of other forest models.

Description: Halocline water modification and along slope advection at the Laptev Sea continental margin Ocean Science Discussions, 10, 1581-1617, 2013 Author(s): D. Bauch, S. Torres-Valdes, I. Polyakov, A. Novikhin, I. Dmitrenko, J. McKay, and A. Mix A general pattern in water mass distribution and potential shelf-basin exchanges is revealed at the Laptev Sea continental slope based on hydrochemical and stable oxygen isotope data from summers 2005–2009. Despite considerable interannual variations, a frontal system can be inferred between shelf, continental slope and central Eurasian Basin waters in the upper 100 m of the water column along the continental slope. Net sea-ice melt is consistently found at the continental slope; however the sea-ice meltwater signal is independent from the local retreat of the ice cover and appears to be advected from upwind locations. In addition to the along-slope frontal system at the continental shelf break a strong gradient is identified on the Laptev Sea shelf between 122 and 126° E with an eastward increase of riverine and sea-ice related brine water contents. These waters cross the shelf break at ~ 140° E and feed the Low Salinity Halocline Water (LSHW, salinity S 〈 33) in the upper 50 m of the water column. Extremely high silicate concentrations in Laptev Sea bottom waters may lead to speculation on a link to the local silicate maximum found within the salinity range of ~ 33 to 34.5, typical for the Lower Halocline Water (LHW) at the continental slope. But brine signatures and nutrient ratios from the central Laptev Sea differ from those at the continental slope. Thus a significant contribution of Laptev Sea bottom waters to the LHW at the continental slope can be excluded. The silicate maximum within the LHW at the continental slope may be formed locally or at the outer Laptev Sea shelf. Similar to the advection of the sea-ice melt signal along the Laptev Sea continental slope the nutrient signal at 50–70 m water depth within the LHW might also be fed by advection parallel to the slope. Thus, our analyses suggest that advective processes from upwind locations play a significant role in the halocline formation in the northern Laptev Sea.

Description: Migrating subtropical front and Agulhas Return Current affect the southwestern Indian Ocean during the late Quaternary Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5521-5551, 2013 Author(s): D. K. Naik, R. Saraswat, N. Khare, A. C. Pandey, and R. Nigam The position of sub-tropical front (STF), Agulhas Current (AC) and Agulhas Return Current (ARC) controls the hydrography of southwestern Indian Ocean. Although, equator-ward migration of STF and reduction in Agulhas leakage has been reported during the last glacial period, the fate of ARC during the last glacial–interglacial cycle is not clear. Therefore, in order to understand changes in the position and strength of ARC during the last glacial–interglacial cycle, here we reconstruct hydrographic changes in the southwestern Indian Ocean from temporal variation in planktic foraminiferal abundance, stable isotopic ratio (δ 18 O) and trace metal ratio (Mg / Ca) of planktic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides in a core collected from the Agulhas Retroflection Region (ARR) in the southwestern Indian Ocean. Increased abundance of G. bulloides suggests that the productivity in the southwestern Indian Ocean increased during glacial period which confirms previous reports of high glacial productivity in the Southern Ocean. The increased productivity was likely driven by a combination of equator-ward migration of subtropical front and westerlies. Increase in relative abundance of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma Dextral suggests warming of ARR leading to strong thermocline in the southwestern Indian Ocean during the last glacial period. We suggest that the warming of Agulhas Retroflection Region was driven by strengthened ARC which shifted to the east of its present location, thus bringing warmer and saltier water to the southwestern Indian Ocean. Therefore, it is inferred that over the last glacial–interglacial cycle, the hydrography of southwestern Indian Ocean was driven by an eastward shift of retroflection region as well as migrating subtropical front.

Description: The response of the Peruvian Upwelling Ecosystem to centennial-scale global change during the last two millennia Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5479-5519, 2013 Author(s): R. Salvatteci, D. Gutiérrez, D. Field, A. Sifeddine, L. Ortlieb, I. Bouloubassi, M. Boussafir, H. Boucher, and F. Cetin The Tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system influences global climate on interannual, decadal, as well as at longer timescales. Given the uncertainties in the response of the Tropical Pacific to the ongoing greenhouse effect, it is important to assess the natural range of the Tropical Pacific climate variability in response to global natural changes, and to understand the underlying mechanisms. The Peruvian Upwelling Ecosystem (PUE) represents an ideal area to reconstruct past changes in ocean-atmosphere systems because productivity and subsurface oxygenation are strongly linked to changes in the strength of the Walker circulation. Throughout the last 2000 yr, warmer (the Roman Warm Period [RWP], the Medieval Climate Anomaly [MCA] and the Current Warm Period [CWP]), and colder (the Dark Ages Cold Period [DACP] and Little Ice Age [LIA]) intervals occurred with considerable changes around the globe. In order to reconstruct the PUE response to these climatic periods and reveal the underlying mechanisms, we use a multi-proxy approach including organic and inorganic proxies in finely laminated sediments retrieved off Pisco (~ 14° S), Peru. Our results indicate that the PUE exhibited a La Niña-like mean state during the warm periods, characterized by an intense OMZ and high marine productivity. During cold periods the PUE exhibited an El Niño-like mean state, characterized by a weak OMZ and low marine productivity. Comparing our results with other relevant paleoclimatic reconstructions revealed that changes in the strength of the Walker circulation and the expansion/contraction of the South Pacific Sub-tropical High controlled productivity and subsurface oxygenation in the PUE during the last two millennia. This indicate that large scale circulation changes are the driving forces in maintaining productivity and subsurface oxygenation off Peru at centennial time scales during the past two millennia.

Description: Cumulated insolation: a simple explanation of Milankovitch's forcing on climate changes Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5553-5568, 2013 Author(s): F. Marra The occurrence of the sudden melting of the ice sheets during the glacial terminations is explained in this paper as the consequence of the combined role of the minima and the maxima of mean summer insolation on the Northern Hemisphere, providing a new contribution to understand the mechanisms ruling glacial forcing. Indeed, no satisfactory answer has been provided so far to the question why one specific maximum, after a series of consecutive maxima of insolation, has the potentiality to trigger a deglaciation. The explanation proposed in this paper accounts for a pre-conditioning factor, represented by "mild" (warmer) minimum, followed by a sufficiently warm maximum as the conditions that cause the end of a glacial cycle. These conditions are realized whenever the sum of the values of each consecutive minima and maxima ("cumulated insolation") on the curve of mean summer insolation at 65° N exceeds 742 Watt m −2 . The comparison of the succession of these cumulated insolation values with the astronomically tuned Oxygen isotopes record provides a satisfactory match with the occurrence of all the glacial terminations in the last 800 ka.

Description: Global and regional sea surface temperature trends during Marine Isotope Stage 11 Climate of the Past, 9, 2231-2252, 2013 Author(s): Y. Milker, R. Rachmayani, M. F. G. Weinkauf, M. Prange, M. Raitzsch, M. Schulz, and M. Kučera The Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (424–374 ka) was characterized by a protracted deglaciation and an unusually long climatic optimum. It remains unclear to what degree the climate development during this interglacial reflects the unusually weak orbital forcing or greenhouse gas trends. Previously, arguments about the duration and timing of the MIS11 climatic optimum and about the pace of the deglacial warming were based on a small number of key records, which appear to show regional differences. In order to obtain a global signal of climate evolution during MIS11, we compiled a database of 78 sea surface temperature (SST) records from 57 sites spanning MIS11, aligned these individually on the basis of benthic ( N = 28) or planktonic ( N = 31) stable oxygen isotope curves to a common time frame and subjected 48 of them to an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The analysis revealed a high commonality among all records, with the principal SST trend explaining almost 49% of the variability. This trend indicates that on the global scale, the surface ocean underwent rapid deglacial warming during Termination V, in pace with carbon dioxide rise, followed by a broad SST optimum centered at ~410 kyr. The second EOF, which explained ~18% of the variability, revealed the existence of a different SST trend, characterized by a delayed onset of the temperature optimum during MIS11 at ~398 kyr, followed by a prolonged warm period lasting beyond 380 kyr. This trend is most consistently manifested in the mid-latitude North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea and is here attributed to the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. A sensitivity analysis indicates that these results are robust to record selection and to age-model uncertainties of up to 3–6 kyr, but more sensitive to SST seasonal attribution and SST uncertainties 〉1 °C. In order to validate the CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model, version 3) predictive potential, the annual and seasonal SST anomalies recorded in a total of 74 proxy records were compared with runs for three time slices representing orbital configuration extremes during the peak interglacial of MIS11. The modeled SST anomalies are characterized by a significantly lower variance compared to the reconstructions. Nevertheless, significant correlations between proxy and model data are found in comparisons on the seasonal basis, indicating that the model captures part of the long-term variability induced by astronomical forcing, which appears to have left a detectable signature in SST trends.

Description: Chronology of Lake El'gygytgyn sediments Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 3061-3102, 2013 Author(s): N. R. Nowaczyk, E. M. Haltia, D. Ulbricht, V. Wennrich, M. A. Sauerbrey, P. Rosén, H. Vogel, A. Francke, C. Meyer-Jacob, A. A. Andreev, and A. V. Lozhkin A 318 m long sedimentary profile drilled by the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) at Site 5011-1 in Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic, has been analysed for its sedimentologic response to global climate modes by chrono-stratigraphic methods. The 12 km wide lake is sited in an 18 km large crater that was created by the impact of a meteorite 3.58 Ma ago. Since then sediments have been continuously deposited. For establishing their chronology, major reversals of the Earth's magnetic field provided initial tie points for the age model, confirming that the impact occurred in the earliest Gauss chron. Various stratigraphic parameters, reflecting redox conditions at the lake floor and climatic conditions in the catchment were tuned synchronously to Northern Hemisphere insolation variations and the marine oxygen isotope stack, respectively. Thus, a robust age model comprising more than 600 tie points could be defined. It could be shown that deposition of sediments in Lake El'gygytgyn occurred in concert with global climatic cycles. The upper ~160 m of sediments represent the past 3.3 Ma, equivalent to sedimentation rates of 4 to 5 cm ka −1 , whereas the lower 160 m represent just the first 0.3 Ma after the impact, equivalent to sedimentation rates in the order of 45 cm ka −1 .

Description: On the parallelization of atmospheric inversions of CO 2 surface fluxes within a variational framework Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 783-790, 2013 Author(s): F. Chevallier The variational formulation of Bayes' theorem allows inferring CO 2 sources and sinks from atmospheric concentrations at much higher time–space resolution than the ensemble or analytical approaches. However, it usually exhibits limited scalable parallelism. This limitation hinders global atmospheric inversions operated on decadal time scales and regional ones with kilometric spatial scales because of the computational cost of the underlying transport model that has to be run at each iteration of the variational minimization. Here, we introduce a physical parallelization (PP) of variational atmospheric inversions. In the PP, the inversion still manages a single physically and statistically consistent window, but the transport model is run in parallel overlapping sub-segments in order to massively reduce the computation wall-clock time of the inversion. For global inversions, a simplification of transport modelling is described to connect the output of all segments. We demonstrate the performance of the approach on a global inversion for CO 2 with a 32 yr inversion window (1979–2010) with atmospheric measurements from 81 sites of the NOAA global cooperative air sampling network. In this case, we show that the duration of the inversion is reduced by a seven-fold factor (from months to days), while still processing the three decades consistently and with improved numerical stability.

Description: Inclusion of ash and SO 2 emissions from volcanic eruptions in WRF-Chem: development and some applications Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 457-468, 2013 Author(s): M. Stuefer, S. R. Freitas, G. Grell, P. Webley, S. Peckham, S. A. McKeen, and S. D. Egan We describe a new functionality within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with coupled Chemistry (WRF-Chem) that allows simulating emission, transport, dispersion, transformation and sedimentation of pollutants released during volcanic activities. Emissions from both an explosive eruption case and a relatively calm degassing situation are considered using the most recent volcanic emission databases. A preprocessor tool provides emission fields and additional information needed to establish the initial three-dimensional cloud umbrella/vertical distribution within the transport model grid, as well as the timing and duration of an eruption. From this source condition, the transport, dispersion and sedimentation of the ash cloud can be realistically simulated by WRF-Chem using its own dynamics and physical parameterization as well as data assimilation. Examples of model applications include a comparison of tephra fall deposits from the 1989 eruption of Mount Redoubt (Alaska) and the dispersion of ash from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland. Both model applications show good coincidence between WRF-Chem and observations.

Description: PORT, a CESM tool for the diagnosis of radiative forcing Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 469-476, 2013 Author(s): A. J. Conley, J.-F. Lamarque, F. Vitt, W. D. Collins, and J. Kiehl The Parallel Offline Radiative Transfer (PORT) model is a stand-alone tool, driven by model-generated datasets, that can be used for any radiation calculation that the underlying radiative transfer schemes can perform, such as diagnosing radiative forcing. In its present distribution, PORT isolates the radiation code from the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). The current configuration focuses on CAM4 radiation with the constituents as represented in present-day conditions in CESM1, along with their optical properties. PORT includes an implementation of stratospheric temperature adjustment under the assumption of fixed dynamical heating, which is necessary to compute radiative forcing in addition to the more straightforward instantaneous radiative forcing. PORT can be extended to use radiative constituent distributions from other models or model simulations. Ultimately, PORT can be used with various radiative transfer models. As illustrations of the use of PORT, we perform the computation of radiative forcing from doubling of carbon dioxide, from the change of tropospheric ozone concentration from the year 1850 to 2000, and from present-day aerosols. The radiative forcing from tropospheric ozone (with respect to 1850) generated by a collection of model simulations under the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project is found to be 0.34 (with an intermodel standard deviation of 0.07) W m −2 . Present-day aerosol direct forcing (relative to no aerosols) is found to be −1.3 W m −2 .

Description: Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene Climate of the Past, 9, 811-823, 2013 Author(s): J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi Paleoclimate simulations provide us with an opportunity to critically confront and evaluate the performance of climate models in simulating the response of the climate system to changes in radiative forcing and other boundary conditions. Hargreaves et al. (2011) analysed the reliability of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, PMIP2 model ensemble with respect to the MARGO sea surface temperature data synthesis (MARGO Project Members, 2009) for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP). Here we extend that work to include a new comprehensive collection of land surface data (Bartlein et al., 2011), and introduce a novel analysis of the predictive skill of the models. We include output from the PMIP3 experiments, from the two models for which suitable data are currently available. We also perform the same analyses for the PMIP2 mid-Holocene (6 ka BP) ensembles and available proxy data sets. Our results are predominantly positive for the LGM, suggesting that as well as the global mean change, the models can reproduce the observed pattern of change on the broadest scales, such as the overall land–sea contrast and polar amplification, although the more detailed sub-continental scale patterns of change remains elusive. In contrast, our results for the mid-Holocene are substantially negative, with the models failing to reproduce the observed changes with any degree of skill. One cause of this problem could be that the globally- and annually-averaged forcing anomaly is very weak at the mid-Holocene, and so the results are dominated by the more localised regional patterns in the parts of globe for which data are available. The root cause of the model-data mismatch at these scales is unclear. If the proxy calibration is itself reliable, then representativity error in the data-model comparison, and missing climate feedbacks in the models are other possible sources of error.

Description: Late Cenozoic continuous aridification in the western Qaidam Basin: evidence from sporopollen records Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 1485-1508, 2013 Author(s): Y. F. Miao, X. M. Fang, F. L. Wu, M. T. Cai, C. H. Song, Q. Q. Meng, and L. Xu Cenozoic climate changes in inner Asia provide a basis for understanding linkages between global cooling, the Tibetan Plateau uplift, and possibly the development of the East Asian monsoon. Based on the compiled palynological results from the western Qaidam Basin, this study reconstructed an 18 Ma record of changing vegetation and paleoclimates since the middle Miocene. Thermophilic taxa percentages were highest between 18 and 14 Ma and decreased after 14 Ma, corresponding closely with the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO) between 18 and 14 Ma and the following global climatic cooling. After 3.6 Ma, the thermophilic taxa percentages further decreased, showing the inevitable relations with the ice-sheets enlargement in the North Hemisphere. During the same period of time, the increase in xerophytic taxa percentages and decrease in conifers percentages imply aridification in both the basin and surrounding mountains since 18 Ma. These results indicate that global cooling mainly controlled the climate change from a relative warm-wet stage to a cold-dry stage during the late Cenozoic at the western Qaidam Basin, and that the Tibetan Plateau uplift also contributed in contrast to the East Asian summer monsoon.

Description: Post-Pliocene establishment of the present monsoonal climate in SW China: evidence from the late Pliocene Longmen megaflora Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 1675-1701, 2013 Author(s): T. Su, F. M. B. Jacques, R. A. Spicer, Y.-S. Liu, Y.-J. Huang, Y.-W. Xing, and Z.-K. Zhou The paleoclimate of the late Pliocene Longmen flora from Yongping County located at the southeastern boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was reconstructed using two leaf physiognomy based methods, i.e. Leaf Margin Analysis (LMA) and Climate Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program (CLAMP), to understand the paleoclimate condition and geographical pattern of monsoonal climate in southwestern China during the late Pliocene. The mean annual temperatures (MATs) estimated by LMA and CLAMP are 17.4 ± 3.3 °C and 17.4 ± 1.3 °C, respectively, compared with 15.9 °C at present. Meanwhile, the growing season precipitation (GSP) estimated by CLAMP is 1735.5 ± 217.7 mm in the Longmen flora, compared with 986.9 mm nowadays. The calculated monsoon index (MSI) of the Longmen flora is significantly lower than that of today. These results appear consistent with previous studies based on the coexistence approach (CA), and further suggest that there was a slightly warmer and much wetter climate during the late Pliocene than the present climate in western Yunnan. We conclude that the significant change of the monsoonal climate might have been resulted from the continuous uplift of mountains in western Yunnan, as well as the intensification of eastern Asian winter monsoon, both occurring concurrently in the post-Pliocene period.

Description: The transient distributions of nuclear weapon-generated tritium and its decay product 3 He in the Mediterranean Sea, 1952–2011, and their oceanographic potential Ocean Science Discussions, 10, 649-690, 2013 Author(s): W. Roether, P. Jean-Baptiste, E. Fourré, and J. Sültenfuß We present a comprehensive account of tritium and 3 He in the Mediterranean Sea since the appearance of the tritium generated by the atmospheric nuclear-weapon testing in the 1950's and early 1960's, based on essentially all available observations. Tritium in surface waters rose to 20–30 TU in 1964 (TU = 10 18 · [ 3 H]/[H]), a factor of about 100 above the natural level, and thereafter declined 30-fold up to 2011. The decline was largely due to radioactive tritium decay, which produced significant amounts of its stable daughter 3 He. We present the scheme by which we separate the tritiugenic part of 3 He and the part due to release from the sea floor (terrigenic part). We show that the tritiugenic component can be quantified throughout the Mediterranean waters, typically to a ±0.15 TU equivalent, mostly because the terrigenic part is low in 3 He. This fact makes the Mediterranean unique in offering a potential for the use of tritiugenic 3 He as a tracer. The transient distributions of the two tracers are illustrated by a number of sections spanning the entire sea and relevant features of their distributions are noted. By 2011, the 3 He concentrations in the top few hundred meters had become low, in response to the decreasing tritium concentrations combined with a flushing out by the general westward drift of these waters. Tritium- 3 He ages in Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW) were obtained repeated in time at different locations, defining transit times from the LIW source region east of Rhodes. The ages show an upward trend with the time elapsed since the surface-water tritium maximum, which arises because the repeated observations represent increasingly slower moving parts of the full transit time spectrum of LIW. The transit time dispersion found by this new application of tritium- 3 He dating is considerable. We find mean transit times of 12 ± 2 yr up to the Strait of Sicily, 18 ± 3 yr up to the Tyrrhenian Sea, and 22 ± 4 yr up into the Western Mediterranean. We furthermore present full Eastern Mediterranean sections of terrigenic 3 He and tritium- 3 He age in 1987, the latter one similarly showing an effect of the transit time dispersion. We conclude that the available tritium and 3 He data, in particular if combined with other tracer data, are useful for constraining the subsurface circulation and mixing of the Mediterranean Sea.

Description: Holocene vegetation and climate changes in central Mediterranean inferred from a high-resolution marine pollen record (Adriatic Sea) Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 1969-2014, 2013 Author(s): N. Combourieu-Nebout, O. Peyron, V. Bout-Roumazeilles, S. Goring, I. Dormoy, S. Joannin, L. Sadori, G. Siani, and M. Magny To understand the effects of future climate change on the ecology of the central Mediterranean we can look to the impacts of long-term, millennial to centennial-scale climatic variability on vegetation in the basin. Pollen data from the Adriatic Marine core MD 90-917 allows us to reconstruct vegetation and regional climate changes over the south central Mediterranean during the Holocene. Clay mineral ratios from the same core reflect the relative contributions of riverine (illite and smectite) and eolian (kaolinite) contributions to the site, and thus act as an additional proxy with which to test precipitation changes in the Holocene. Vegetation reconstruction shows vegetation responses to the late-Glacial Preboreal oscillation, most likely driven by changes in seasonal precipitation. Pollen-inferred temperature declines during the early-mid Holocene, but increases during the mid-late Holocene, similar to southern-western Mediterranean climatic patterns during the Holocene. Several short climatic events appear in the record, indicating the sensitivity of vegetation in the region to millennial-scale variability. Reconstructed summer precipitation shows a regional maximum between 8000 and 7000 cal yr BP similar to the general pattern across southern Europe. Two important shifts in vegetation occur at 7700 and between 7500 and 7000 yr. These vegetation shifts are linked to changes in seasonal precipitation and are correlated to increased river inputs respectively from the north (7700 event) and from the central Adriatic borderlands (7500–7000 event). These results reinforce the strengths of multi-proxy analysis and provide a deeper understanding of the role of precipitation and particularly the seasonality of precipitation in mediating vegetation change in the central Mediterranean during the Holocene.

Description: Southern Hemisphere orbital forcing and its effects on CO 2 and tropical Pacific climate Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 1869-1900, 2013 Author(s): K. Tachikawa, A. Timmermann, L. Vidal, C. Sonzogni, and O. E. Timm The western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) is an important heat source for the atmospheric circulation and influences climate conditions worldwide. Understanding its sensitivity to past radiative perturbations may help better contextualize the magnitudes and patterns of current and projected tropical climate change. Here we present a new Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction over the past 400 kyr from the Bismarck Sea, off Papua New Guinea, along with results from a transient earth system model simulation. Our results document the primary influence of CO 2 forcing on glacial/interglacial WPWP SSTs and secondary effects due to changes in wind-driven tropical boundary currents. In addition to the SST, deep ocean temperature reconstructions from this core are linked with Southern Ocean temperature and sea-ice variations on timescales of ~ 23 kyr. It is proposed that Southern Hemisphere insolation changes serve as pacemaker for sea-ice variations in the Southern Ocean, which in turn modulate windstress curl-driven upwelling of carbon-rich waters, hence controlling atmospheric CO 2 and tropical WPWP temperatures.

Description: A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 1: Model validation Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 1803-1839, 2013 Author(s): J. J. Gómez-Navarro, J. P. Montávez, S. Wagner, and E. Zorita We present and analyse a high-resolution regional climate palaeosimulation encompassing the European region for the period 1500–1990. We use the regional model MM5 coupled to the global model ECHO-G. Both models were driven by reconstructions of three external factors: greenhouse gas concentrations, Total Solar Irradiance and volcanic activity. The simulation has been assessed in a recent period by comparing the model results with the Climate Research Unit (CRU) database. The results show that although the regional model is tightly driven by the boundary conditions, it is able to improve the reliability of the simulations, narrowing the differences to the observations, especially in areas of complex topography. Additionally, the evolution of the spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation through the last five centuries has been analysed. The mean values of temperature reflects the influence of the external forcings but, contrary to the results obtained under climate change scenario conditions, we found that higher-order momenta of the probability distribution of seasonal temperature and precipitation are hardly affected by changes in the external forcings

Description: North–south palaeohydrological contrasts in the central Mediterranean during the Holocene: tentative synthesis and working hypotheses Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 1901-1967, 2013 Author(s): M. Magny, N. Combourieu Nebout, J. L. de Beaulieu, V. Bout-Roumazeilles, D. Colombaroli, S. Desprat, A. Francke, S. Joannin, O. Peyron, M. Revel, L. Sadori, G. Siani, M. A. Sicre, S. Samartin, A. Simonneau, W. Tinner, B. Vannière, B. Wagner, G. Zanchetta, F. Anselmetti, E. Brugiapaglia, E. Chapron, M. Debret, M. Desmet, J. Didier, L. Essallami, D. Galop, A. Gilli, J. N. Haas, N. Kallel, L. Millet, A. Stock, J. L. Turon, and S. Wirth On the basis of a multi-proxy approach and a strategy combining lacustrine and marine records along a north–south transect, data collected in the Central Mediterranean within the framework of a collaborative project have led to reconstruction of high-resolution and well-dated palaeohydrological records and to assessment of their spatial and temporal coherency. Contrasting patterns of palaeohydrological changes have been evidenced in the Central Mediterranean: south (north) of around 40° N of latitude, the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by lake-level maxima (minima), during an interval dated to ca. 10 300–4500 cal BP to the south and 9000–4500 cal BP to the north. Available data suggest that these contrasting palaeohydrological patterns operated throughout the Holocene, both on millennial and centennial scales. Regarding precipitation seasonality, maximum humidity in the Central Mediterranean during the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by humid winters and dry summers north of ca. 40° N, and humid winters and summers south of ca. 40° N. This may explain an apparent conflict between palaeoclimatic records depending on the proxies used for reconstruction as well as the synchronous expansion of tree species taxa with contrasting climatic requirements. In addition, south of ca. 40° N, the first millennium of the Holocene was characterised by very dry climatic conditions not only in the Eastern, but also in the Central and the Western Mediterranean zones as reflected by low lake levels and delayed reforestation. These results suggest that, in addition to the influence of the Nile discharge reinforced by the African monsoon, the deposition of Sapropel 1 has been favoured (1) by an increase in winter precipitation in the northern Mediterranean borderlands, and (2) by an increase in winter and summer precipitation in the southern Mediterranean area. The climate reversal following the Holocene climate optimum appears to have been punctuated by two major climate changes around 7500 and 4500 cal BP. In the Central Mediterranean, the Holocene palaeohydrological changes developed in response to a combination of orbital, ice-sheet and solar forcing factors. The maximum humidity interval in the south-central Mediterranean started at ca. 10 300 cal BP, in correlation with the decline (1) of the possible blocking effects of the North Atlantic anticyclone linked to maximum insolation, and/or (2) of the influence of the remnant ice sheets and fresh water forcing in the North Atlantic Ocean. In the north-central Mediterranean, the lake-level minimum interval began only around 9000 cal BP when the Fennoscandian ice-sheet disappeared and a prevailing positive NAO-type circulation developed in the North Atlantic area. The major palaeohydrological oscillation around 4500–4000 cal BP may be a non-linear response to the gradual decrease, with additional key seasonal and interhemispherical changes, in insolation. On a centennial scale, the successive climatic events which punctuated the entire Holocene in the central Mediterranean coincided with cooling events associated with deglacial outbursts in the North Atlantic area and decreases in solar activity during the interval 11 700–7000 cal BP, and to a possible combination of NAO-type circulation and solar forcing since ca. 7000 cal BP onwards. Thus, regarding the centennial-scale climatic oscillations, the Mediterranean Basin appears to have been strongly linked to the North Atlantic area and affected by solar activity over the entire Holocene. In addition to model experiments, a better understanding of forcing factors and past atmospheric circulation patterns behind the Holocene palaeohydrological changes in the Mediterranean area will require further investigation to establish additional high-resolution and well-dated records in selected locations around the Mediterranean Basin and in adjacent regions. Special attention should be paid to greater precision in the reconstruction, on millennial and centennial time scales, of changes in the latitudinal location of the limit between the northern and southern palaeohydrological Mediterranean sectors, depending on (1) the intensity and/or characteristics of climatic periods/oscillations (e.g. Holocene thermal maximum versus Neoglacial, as well as, for instance, the 8.2 ka event versus the 4 ka event or the Little Ice Age), and (2) on varying geographical conditions from the western to the eastern Mediterranean areas (longitudinal gradients).

Description: Stable isotopic evidence of El Niño-like atmospheric circulation in the Pliocene western United States Climate of the Past, 9, 903-912, 2013 Author(s): M. J. Winnick, J. M. Welker, and C. P. Chamberlain Understanding how the hydrologic cycle has responded to warmer global temperatures in the past is especially important today as concentrations of CO 2 in the atmosphere continue to increase due to human activities. The Pliocene offers an ideal window into a climate system that has equilibrated with current atmospheric p CO 2 . During the Pliocene the western United States was wetter than modern, an observation at odds with our current understanding of future warming scenarios, which involve the expansion and poleward migration of the subtropical dry zone. Here we compare Pliocene oxygen isotope profiles of pedogenic carbonates across the western US to modern isotopic anomalies in precipitation between phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We find that when accounting for seasonality of carbonate formation, isotopic changes through the late Pliocene match modern precipitation isotopic anomalies in El Niño years. Furthermore, isotopic shifts through the late Pliocene mirror changes through the early Pleistocene, which likely represents the southward migration of the westerly storm track caused by growth of the Laurentide ice sheet. We propose that the westerly storm track migrated northward through the late Pliocene with the development of the modern cold tongue in the east equatorial Pacific, then returned southward with widespread glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere – a scenario supported by terrestrial climate proxies across the US. Together these data support the proposed existence of background El Niño-like conditions in western North America during the warm Pliocene. If the earth behaves similarly with future warming, this observation has important implications with regard to the amount and distribution of precipitation in western North America.

Description: The last 7 millennia of vegetation and climate changes at Lago di Pergusa (central Sicily, Italy) Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 2059-2094, 2013 Author(s): L. Sadori, E. Ortu, O. Peyron, G. Zanchetta, B. Vannière, M. Desmet, and M. Magny The aim of this study is to investigate climate changes and human activities under the lens of palynology. Based on a new high-resolution pollen sequence (PG2) from Lago di Pergusa (667 m a.s.l., central Sicily, Italy) covering the last 6700 yr, we propose a reconstruction of climate and landscape changes over the recent past in central Sicily. Compared to former studies from Lago di Pergusa (Sadori and Narcisi, 2001), this work provides a reconstruction of the evolution of vegetation and climate over the last millennia in central Sicily, indeed completing previous results with new data which is particularly detailed on the last 3000 yr. Joint actions of increasing dryness, climate oscillations, and human impact shaped the landscape of this privileged site. Lago di Pergusa, in fact, besides being the main inland lake of Sicily, is very sensitive to climate change and its territory was inhabited and exploited continuously since the prehistory. The lake sediments turned out to be a good observatory for the natural phenomena occurred in the last thousands of years. Results of the pollen-based study are integrated with changes in magnetic susceptibility and a tephra layer characterization. The tephra layer was shown to be related to the Sicanians' event, radiocarbon dated at 3055 ± 75 yr BP (Sadori and Narcisi, 2001). We performed palaeoclimate reconstructions by MAT and WA-PLS. Palaeoclimate reconstructions based on the core show important climate fluctuations throughout the Holocene. Climate reconstruction points out four phases of cooling and enhanced wetness in the last three millennia (2600–2000, 1650–1100, 850–550, 400–200 cal BP). This appears to be the evidence of local responses to global climate oscillations during the recent past.

Description: Mass-movement and flood-induced deposits in Lake Ledro, southern Alps, Italy: implications for Holocene palaeohydrology and natural hazards Climate of the Past, 9, 825-840, 2013 Author(s): A. Simonneau, E. Chapron, B. Vannière, S. B. Wirth, A. Gilli, C. Di Giovanni, F. S. Anselmetti, M. Desmet, and M. Magny High-resolution seismic profiles and sediment cores from Lake Ledro combined with soil and riverbed samples from the lake's catchment area are used to assess the recurrence of natural hazards (earthquakes and flood events) in the southern Italian Alps during the Holocene. Two well-developed deltas and a flat central basin are identified on seismic profiles in Lake Ledro. Lake sediments have been finely laminated in the basin since 9000 cal. yr BP and frequently interrupted by two types of sedimentary events (SEs): light-coloured massive layers and dark-coloured graded beds. Optical analysis (quantitative organic petrography) of the organic matter present in soil, riverbed and lacustrine samples together with lake sediment bulk density and grain-size analysis illustrate that light-coloured layers consist of a mixture of lacustrine sediments and mainly contain algal particles similar to the ones observed in background sediments. Light-coloured layers thicker than 1.5 cm in the main basin of Lake Ledro are synchronous to numerous coeval mass-wasting deposits remoulding the slopes of the basin. They are interpreted as subaquatic mass-movements triggered by historical and pre-historical regional earthquakes dated to AD 2005, AD 1891, AD 1045 and 1260, 2545, 2595, 3350, 3815, 4740, 7190, 9185 and 11 495 cal. yr BP. Dark-coloured SEs develop high-amplitude reflections in front of the deltas and in the deep central basin. These beds are mainly made of terrestrial organic matter (soils and lignocellulosic debris) and are interpreted as resulting from intense hyperpycnal flood event. Mapping and quantifying the amount of soil material accumulated in the Holocene hyperpycnal flood deposits of the sequence allow estimating that the equivalent soil thickness eroded over the catchment area reached up to 5 mm during the largest Holocene flood events. Such significant soil erosion is interpreted as resulting from the combination of heavy rainfall and snowmelt. The recurrence of flash flood events during the Holocene was, however, not high enough to affect pedogenesis processes and highlight several wet regional periods during the Holocene. The Holocene period is divided into four phases of environmental evolution. Over the first half of the Holocene, a progressive stabilization of the soils present through the catchment of Lake Ledro was associated with a progressive reforestation of the area and only interrupted during the wet 8.2 event when the soil destabilization was particularly important. Lower soil erosion was recorded during the mid-Holocene climatic optimum (8000–4200 cal. yr BP) and associated with higher algal production. Between 4200 and 3100 cal. yr BP, both wetter climate and human activities within the drainage basin drastically increased soil erosion rates. Finally, from 3100 cal. yr BP to the present-day, data suggest increasing and changing human land use.

Description: Using data assimilation to investigate the causes of Southern Hemisphere high latitude cooling from 10 to 8 ka BP Climate of the Past, 9, 887-901, 2013 Author(s): P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina From 10 to 8 ka BP (thousand years before present), paleoclimate records show an atmospheric and oceanic cooling in the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. During this interval, temperatures estimated from proxy data decrease by 0.8 °C over Antarctica and 1.2 °C over the Southern Ocean. In order to study the causes of this cooling, simulations covering the early Holocene have been performed with the climate model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM constrained to follow the signal recorded in climate proxies using a data assimilation method based on a particle filtering approach. The selected proxies represent oceanic and atmospheric surface temperature in the Southern Hemisphere derived from terrestrial, marine and glaciological records. Two mechanisms previously suggested to explain the 10–8 ka BP cooling pattern are investigated using the data assimilation approach in our model. The first hypothesis is a change in atmospheric circulation, and the second one is a cooling of the sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean, driven in our experimental setup by the impact of an increased West Antarctic melting rate on ocean circulation. For the atmosphere hypothesis, the climate state obtained by data assimilation produces a modification of the meridional atmospheric circulation leading to a 0.5 °C Antarctic cooling from 10 to 8 ka BP compared to the simulation without data assimilation, without congruent cooling of the atmospheric and sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean. For the ocean hypothesis, the increased West Antarctic freshwater flux constrainted by data assimilation (+100 mSv from 10 to 8 ka BP) leads to an oceanic cooling of 0.7 °C and a strengthening of Southern Hemisphere westerlies (+6%). Thus, according to our experiments, the observed cooling in Antarctic and the Southern Ocean proxy records can only be reconciled with the reconstructions by the combination of a modified atmospheric circulation and an enhanced freshwater flux.

Description: Dust and associated trace element fluxes in a firn core from the coastal East Antarctica and its linkages with the Southern Hemisphere climate variability over the last ~ 50 yr Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 1841-1867, 2013 Author(s): C. M. Laluraj, M. Thamban, and K. Satheesan High-resolution records of dust and trace element fluxes were studied in a firn core from the coastal Dronning Maud Land (cDML) in East Antarctica to identify the influence of climate variability on accumulation of these components over the past ~ 50 yr. A doubling of dust deposition was observed since 1985, coinciding with a shift in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index to positive values and associated increase in the wind speed. Back-trajectories showed that an increase in dust deposition is associated with the air parcels originating from north-west of the site, possibly indicating its origin from the Patagonian region. Our results suggest that while multiple processes could have influenced the increased dust formation, shift in SAM had a dominant influence on its transport. It is observed that since the 1985s the strength of easterlies increased significantly over the cDML region, which could sink air and dust material to the region that were brought by the westerlies through mass compensation. The correlation between the dust flux and δ 18 O records further suggest that enhanced dust flux in the firn core occurred during periods of colder atmospheric temperature, which reduced the moisture content and increased dust fall. Interestingly, the timing and amplitude of the insoluble dust peaks matched remarkably well with the fluxes of Ba, Cr, Cu, and Zn confirming that dust was the main carrier/source of atmospheric trace elements to East Antarctica during the recent past.

Description: Model sensitivity to North Atlantic freshwater forcing at 8.2 ka Climate of the Past, 9, 955-968, 2013 Author(s): C. Morrill, A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner We compared four simulations of the 8.2 ka event to assess climate model sensitivity and skill in responding to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations. All of the simulations used the same freshwater forcing, 2.5 Sv for one year, applied to either the Hudson Bay (northeastern Canada) or Labrador Sea (between Canada's Labrador coast and Greenland). This freshwater pulse induced a decadal-mean slowdown of 10–25% in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of the models and caused a large-scale pattern of climate anomalies that matched proxy evidence for cooling in the Northern Hemisphere and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The multi-model ensemble generated temperature anomalies that were just half as large as those from quantitative proxy reconstructions, however. Also, the duration of AMOC and climate anomalies in three of the simulations was only several decades, significantly shorter than the duration of ~150 yr in the paleoclimate record. Possible reasons for these discrepancies include incorrect representation of the early Holocene climate and ocean state in the North Atlantic and uncertainties in the freshwater forcing estimates.

Description: A mid-Holocene climate reconstruction for eastern South America Climate of the Past, 9, 2117-2133, 2013 Author(s): L. F. Prado, I. Wainer, C. M. Chiessi, M.-P. Ledru, and B. Turcq The mid-Holocene (6000 calibrated years before present) is a key period in palaeoclimatology because incoming summer insolation was lower than during the late Holocene in the Southern Hemisphere, whereas the opposite happened in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the effects of the decreased austral summer insolation over South American climate have been poorly discussed by palaeodata syntheses. In addition, only a few of the regional studies have characterised the mid-Holocene climate in South America through a multiproxy approach. Here, we present a multiproxy compilation of mid-Holocene palaeoclimate data for eastern South America. We compiled 120 palaeoclimatological datasets, which were published in 84 different papers. The palaeodata analysed here suggest a water deficit scenario in the majority of eastern South America during the mid-Holocene if compared to the late Holocene, with the exception of northeastern Brazil. Low mid-Holocene austral summer insolation caused a reduced land–sea temperature contrast and hence a weakened South American monsoon system circulation. This scenario is represented by a decrease in precipitation over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone area, saltier conditions along the South American continental margin, and lower lake levels.

Description: Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1429-1445, 2013 Author(s): M. Trail, A. P. Tsimpidi, P. Liu, K. Tsigaridis, Y. Hu, A. Nenes, and A. G. Russell Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model (RCM) to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas, northeastern, and southeastern US), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

Description: The SOCOL version 3.0 chemistry–climate model: description, evaluation, and implications from an advanced transport algorithm Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1407-1427, 2013 Author(s): A. Stenke, M. Schraner, E. Rozanov, T. Egorova, B. Luo, and T. Peter We present the third generation of the coupled chemistry–climate model (CCM) SOCOL (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links). The most notable modifications compared to the previous model version are (1) the dynamical core has been updated with the fifth generation of the middle-atmosphere general circulation model MA-ECHAM (European Centre/HAMburg climate model), and (2) the advection of the chemical species is now calculated by a mass-conserving and shape-preserving flux-form transport scheme instead of the previously used hybrid advection scheme. The whole chemistry code has been rewritten according to the ECHAM5 infrastructure and transferred to Fortran95. In contrast to its predecessors, SOCOLvs3 is now fully parallelized. The performance of the new SOCOL version is evaluated on the basis of transient model simulations (1975–2004) with different horizontal (T31 and T42) resolutions, following the approach of the CCMVal-1 model validation activity. The advanced advection scheme significantly reduces the artificial loss and accumulation of tracer mass in regions with strong gradients that was observed in previous model versions. Compared to its predecessors, SOCOLvs3 generally shows more realistic distributions of chemical trace species, especially of total inorganic chlorine, in terms of the mean state, but also of the annual and interannual variability. Advancements with respect to model dynamics are for example a better representation of the stratospheric mean state in spring, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, and a slowdown of the upward propagation in the tropical lower stratosphere. Despite a large number of improvements model deficiencies still remain. Examples include a too-fast vertical ascent and/or horizontal mixing in the tropical stratosphere, the cold temperature bias in the lowermost polar stratosphere, and the overestimation of polar total ozone loss during Antarctic springtime.

Description: An inter-laboratory investigation of the Arctic sea ice biomarker proxy IP 25 in marine sediments: key outcomes and recommendations Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5263-5298, 2013 Author(s): S. T. Belt, T. A. Brown, L. Ampel, P. Cabedo-Sanz, K. Fahl, J. J. Kocis, G. Massé, A. Navarro-Rodriguez, J. Ruan, and Y. Xu We describe the results of an inter-laboratory investigation into the identification and quantification of the Arctic sea ice biomarker proxy IP 25 in marine sediments. 7 laboratories took part in the study, which consisted of the analysis of IP 25 in a series of sediment samples from different regions of the Arctic, sub-Arctic and Antarctic, additional sediment extracts and purified standards. The results obtained allowed 4 key outcomes to be determined. First, IP 25 was identified by all laboratories in sediments from the Canadian Arctic with inter-laboratory variation in IP 25 concentration being substantially larger than within individual laboratories. This greater variation between laboratories was attributed to the difficulty in accurately determining instrumental response factors for IP 25 , despite provision of appropriate standards. Second, the identification of IP 25 by 3 laboratories in sediment from SW Iceland that was believed to represent a blank, was interpreted as representing a better limit of detection or quantification for such laboratories, contamination or mis-identification. These alternatives could not be distinguished conclusively with the data available, although it is noted that the precision of these data was significantly poorer compared with the other IP 25 concentration measurements. Third, 3 laboratories reported the occurrence of IP 25 in a sediment sample from the Antarctic Peninsula even though this biomarker is believed to be absent from the Southern Ocean. This anomaly is attributed to a combined chromatographic and mass spectrometric interference that results from the presence of a di-unsaturated highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) pseudo-homologue of IP 25 that occurs in Antarctic sediments. Finally, data are presented that suggest that extraction of IP 25 is consistent between Automated Solvent Extraction (ASE) and sonication methods and that IP 25 concentrations based on 7-hexylnonadecane as an internal standard are comparable using these methods. Recoveries of some more unsaturated HBIs and the internal standard 9-octylheptadecene, however, were lower with the ASE procedure, possibly due to partial degradation of these more reactive chemicals as a result of higher temperatures employed with this method. For future measurements, we recommend the use of reference sediment material with known concentration(s) of IP 25 for determining and routinely monitoring instrumental response factors. Given the significance placed on the presence (or otherwise) of IP 25 in marine sediments, some further recommendations pertaining to quality control are made that should also enable the two main anomalies identified here to be addressed.

Description: Expressions of climate perturbations in western Ugandan crater lake sediment records during the last 1000 yr Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5183-5226, 2013 Author(s): K. Mills, D. B. Ryves, N. J. Anderson, C. L. Bryant, and J. J. Tyler Equatorial East Africa has a complex, regional patchwork of climate regimes, with multiple interacting drivers. Recent studies have focussed on large lakes and reveal signals that are smoothed in both space and time, and, whilst useful at a continental scale, are of less relevance when understanding short-term, abrupt or immediate impacts of climate and environmental changes. Smaller-scale studies have highlighted spatial complexity and regional heterogeneity of tropical palaeoenvironments in terms of responses to climatic forcing (e.g. the Little Ice Age [LIA]) and questions remain over the spatial extent and synchroneity of climatic changes seen in East African records. Sediment cores from paired crater lakes in western Uganda were examined to assess ecosystem response to long-term climate and environmental change as well as testing responses to multiple drivers using redundancy analysis. These archives provide annual to sub-decadal records of environmental change. The records from the two lakes demonstrate an individualistic response to external (e.g. climatic) drivers, however, some of the broader patterns observed across East Africa suggest that the lakes are indeed sensitive to climatic perturbations such as a dry Mediaeval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 1000–1200 AD) and a relatively drier climate during the main phase of the LIA (1500–1800 AD); though lake levels in western Uganda do fluctuate. The relationship of Ugandan lakes to regional climate drivers breaks down c. 1800 AD, when major changes in the ecosystems appear to be a response to sediment and nutrient influxes as a result of increasing cultural impacts within the lake catchments. The data highlight the complexity of individual lake response to climate forcing, indicating shifting drivers through time. This research also highlights the importance of using multi-lake studies within a landscape to allow for rigorous testing of climate reconstructions, forcing and ecosystem response.

Description: Stable water isotopes in the coupled atmosphere–land surface model ECHAM5-JSBACH Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1463-1480, 2013 Author(s): B. Haese, M. Werner, and G. Lohmann In this study we present first results of a new model development, ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso, where we have incorporated the stable water isotopes H 2 18 O and HDO as tracers in the hydrological cycle of the coupled atmosphere–land surface model ECHAM5-JSBACH. The ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso model was run under present-day climate conditions at two different resolutions (T31L19, T63L31). A comparison between ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso and ECHAM5-wiso shows that the coupling has a strong impact on the simulated temperature and soil wetness. Caused by these changes of temperature and the hydrological cycle, the δ 18 O in precipitation also shows variations from −4‰ up to 4‰. One of the strongest anomalies is shown over northeast Asia where, due to an increase of temperature, the δ 18 O in precipitation increases as well. In order to analyze the sensitivity of the fractionation processes over land, we compare a set of simulations with various implementations of these processes over the land surface. The simulations allow us to distinguish between no fractionation, fractionation included in the evaporation flux (from bare soil) and also fractionation included in both evaporation and transpiration (from water transport through plants) fluxes. While the isotopic composition of the soil water may change for δ 18 O by up to +8&permil:, the simulated δ 18 O in precipitation shows only slight differences on the order of ±1‰. The simulated isotopic composition of precipitation fits well with the available observations from the GNIP (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation) database.

Description: The effects of climate change on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea Ocean Science Discussions, 10, 1525-1557, 2013 Author(s): K. O'Driscoll, B. Mayer, J. Su, and M. Mathis The fate and cycling of two selected legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs), PCB 153 and γ-HCH, in the North Sea in the 21st century have been modelled with combined hydrodynamic and fate and transport ocean models. To investigate the impact of climate variability on POPs in the North Sea in the 21st century, future scenario model runs for three 10 yr periods to the year 2100 using plausible levels of both in situ concentrations and atmospheric, river and open boundary inputs are performed. Since estimates of future concentration levels of POPs in the atmosphere, oceans and rivers are not available, our approach was to reutilise 2005 values in the atmosphere, rivers and at the open ocean boundaries for every year of the simulations. In this way, we attribute differences between the three 10 yr simulations to climate change only. For the HAMSOM and atmospheric forcing, results of the IPCC A1B (SRES) 21st century scenario are utilised, where surface forcing is provided by the REMO downscaling of the ECHAM5 global atmospheric model, and open boundary conditions are provided by the MPIOM global ocean model. Dry gas deposition and volatilisation of γ-HCH increase in the future relative to the present. In the water column, total mass of γ-HCH and PCB 153 remain fairly steady in all three runs. In sediment, γ-HCH increases in the future runs, relative to the present, while PCB 153 in sediment decreases exponentially in all three runs, but even faster in the future, both of which are the result of climate change. Annual net sinks exceed sources at the ends of all periods.

Description: Observations of phytoplankton spring bloom onset triggered by a density front in NW Mediterranean Ocean Science Discussions, 10, 1559-1580, 2013 Author(s): A. Olita, S. Sparnocchia, S. Cusí, L. Fazioli, R. Sorgente, J. Tintoré, and A. Ribotti Phytoplankton bloom in NW Mediterranan sea is a seasonal event that mainly occurrs in a limited area (Gulf of Lyon and Provençal basin) where this phenomenon is promoted by a cyclonic circulation, strong wind-driven mixing and subsequent spring restratification. At the southern boundary of this area a density front (North Balearic Front) separating denser waters from the lighter Modified Atlantic Waters reservoir at south is suspected to trigger weaker and earlier (late winter) blooms by (a) enhanced pumping of nutrients into the euphotic layer and (b) promoting an early restratification of the water column (by frontal instabilities). A multisensor glider round trip, equipped with CTD and fluorimeter, crossing the frontal area in February–March 2013, allowed to observe the bloom triggering after the decrease of intense wind-driven turbulent convection and mixing. Satellite imagery supports and confirms in-situ observations. It was shown that frontal activity has a relevant role in the promotion and acceleration of the dynamical restratification, with a consequent biological response in terms of primary production. Restratification is necessary preconditioning factor for bloom triggering in frontal area, net of other involved mechanism promoting the bloom as the enhanced biological pump. So, like for high-latitude fronts (Taylor and Ferrari, 2011a), also for this mid-latitude oligotrophic region front seems to promote new production by dynamically enahnced restratification inhibiting mixing. Finally, we argued that Sverdrup's Critical Depth criterion seems to apply in the northern well-mixed area, where the zeroing of heat fluxes (and related turbulent convection) does not correspond to a prompt onset of the bloom (which appeared 1 month later).

Description: Glacial fluctuations of the Indian monsoon and their relationship with North Atlantic climate: new data and modelling experiments Climate of the Past, 9, 2135-2151, 2013 Author(s): C. Marzin, N. Kallel, M. Kageyama, J.-C. Duplessy, and P. Braconnot Several paleoclimate records such as from Chinese loess, speleothems or upwelling indicators in marine sediments present large variations of the Asian monsoon system during the last glaciation. Here, we present a new record from the northern Andaman Sea (core MD77-176) which shows the variations of the hydrological cycle of the Bay of Bengal. The high-resolution record of surface water δ 18 O dominantly reflects salinity changes and displays large millennial-scale oscillations over the period 40 000 to 11 000 yr BP. Their timing and sequence suggests that events of high (resp. low) salinity in the Bay of Bengal, i.e. weak (resp. strong) Indian monsoon, correspond to cold (resp. warm) events in the North Atlantic and Arctic, as documented by the Greenland ice core record. We use the IPSL_CM4 Atmosphere-Ocean coupled General Circulation Model to study the processes that could explain the teleconnection between the Indian monsoon and the North Atlantic climate. We first analyse a numerical experiment in which such a rapid event in the North Atlantic is obtained under glacial conditions by increasing the freshwater flux in the North Atlantic, which results in a reduction of the intensity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. This freshwater hosing results in a weakening of the Indian monsoon rainfall and circulation. The changes in the continental runoff and local hydrological cycle are responsible for an increase in salinity in the Bay of Bengal. This therefore compares favourably with the new sea water δ 18 O record presented here and the hypothesis of synchronous cold North Atlantic and weak Indian monsoon events. Additional sensitivity experiments are produced with the LMDZ atmospheric model to analyse the teleconnection mechanisms between the North Atlantic and the Indian monsoon. The changes over the tropical Atlantic are shown to be essential in triggering perturbations of the subtropical jet over Africa and Eurasia, that in turn affect the intensity of the Indian monsoon. These relationships are also found to be valid in additional coupled model simulations in which the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is forced to resume.

Description: δ 18 O water isotope in the i LOVECLIM model (version 1.0) – Part 2: Evaluation of model results against observed δ 18 O in water samples Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1493-1504, 2013 Author(s): D. M. Roche and T. Caley The H 2 18 O stable isotope was previously introduced in the three coupled components of the earth system model i LOVECLIM: atmosphere, ocean and vegetation. The results of a long (5000 yr) pre-industrial equilibrium simulation are presented and evaluated against measurement of H 2 18 O abundance in present-day water for the atmospheric and oceanic components. For the atmosphere, it is found that the model reproduces the observed spatial distribution and relationships to climate variables with some merit, though limitations following our approach are highlighted. Indeed, we obtain the main gradients with a robust representation of the Rayleigh distillation but caveats appear in Antarctica and around the Mediterranean region due to model limitation. For the oceanic component, the agreement between the modelled and observed distribution of water δ 18 O is found to be very good. Mean ocean surface latitudinal gradients are faithfully reproduced as well as the mark of the main intermediate and deep water masses. This opens large prospects for the applications in palaeoclimatic context.

Description: Mid-Holocene ocean and vegetation feedbacks over East Asia Climate of the Past, 9, 2153-2171, 2013 Author(s): Z. Tian and D. Jiang Mid-Holocene ocean and vegetation feedbacks over East Asia are investigated by a set of numerical experiments performed with the version 4 of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). With reference to the pre-industrial period, most of the mid-Holocene annual and seasonal surface-air temperature and precipitation changes are found to result from a direct response of the atmosphere to insolation forcing, while dynamic ocean and vegetation modulate regional climate of East Asia to some extent. Because of its thermal inertia, the dynamic ocean induced an additional warming of 0.2 K for the annual mean, 0.5 K in winter (December–February), 0.0003 K in summer (June–August), and 1.0 K in autumn (September–November), but a cooling of 0.6 K in spring (March–May) averaged over China, and it counteracted (amplified) the direct effect of insolation forcing for the annual mean and in winter and autumn (spring) for that period. The dynamic vegetation had an area-average impact of no more than 0.4 K on the mid-Holocene annual and seasonal temperatures over China, with an average cooling of 0.2 K for the annual mean. On the other hand, ocean feedback induced a small increase of precipitation in winter (0.04 mm day −1 ) and autumn (0.05 mm day −1 ), but a reduction for the annual mean (0.14 mm day −1 ) and in spring (0.29 mm day −1 ) and summer (0.34 mm day −1 ) over China, while it also suppressed the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. The effect of dynamic vegetation on the mid-Holocene annual and seasonal precipitation was comparatively small, ranging from −0.03 mm day −1 to 0.06 mm day −1 averaged over China. In comparison, the CCSM4 simulated annual and winter cooling over China agrees with simulations within the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), but the results are contrary to the warming reconstructed from multiple proxy data for the mid-Holocene. Ocean feedback narrows this model–data mismatch, whereas vegetation feedback plays an opposite role but with a level of uncertainty.

Description: The Rock Geochemical Model (RokGeM) v0.9 Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1543-1573, 2013 Author(s): G. Colbourn, A. Ridgwell, and T. M. Lenton A new model of terrestrial rock weathering – the Rock Geochemical Model (RokGeM) – was developed for incorporation into the GENIE Earth System modelling framework. In this paper we describe the model. We consider a range of previously devised parameterizations, ranging from simple dependencies on global mean temperature following Berner et al. (1983), to spatially explicit dependencies on run-off and temperature (GKWM, Bluth and Kump, 1994; GEM-CO2, Amiotte-Suchet et al., 2003) – fields provided by the energy-moisture balance atmosphere model component in GENIE. Using long-term carbon cycle perturbation experiments, we test the effects of a wide range of model parameters, including whether or not the atmosphere was "short-circuited" in the carbon cycle; the sensitivity and feedback strength of temperature and run-off on carbonate and silicate weathering; different river-routing schemes; 0-D (global average) vs. 2-D (spatially explicit) weathering schemes; and the lithology dependence of weathering. Included are details of how to run the model and visualize the results.

Description: Observed decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 2004 to 2012 Ocean Science Discussions, 10, 1619-1645, 2013 Author(s): D. A. Smeed, G. McCarthy, S. A. Cunningham, E. Frajka-Williams, D. Rayner, W. E. Johns, C. S. Meinen, M. O. Baringer, B. I. Moat, A. Duchez, and H. L. Bryden The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been observed continuously at 26° N since April 2004. The AMOC and its component parts are monitored by combining a transatlantic array of moored instruments with submarine-cable based measurements of the Gulf Stream and satellite derived Ekman transport. The time series has recently been extended to October 2012 and the results show a downward trend since 2004. From April~2008 to March 2012 the AMOC was an average of 2.7 Sv weaker than in the first four years of observation (95% confidence that the reduction is 0.3 Sv or more). Ekman transport reduced by about 0.2 Sv and the Gulf Stream by 0.5 Sv but most of the change (2.0 Sv) is due to the mid-ocean geostrophic flow. The change of the mid-ocean geostrophic flow represents a strengthening of the subtropical gyre above the thermocline. The increased southward flow of warm waters is balanced by a decrease in the southward flow of Lower North Atlantic Deep Water below 3000 m. The transport of Lower North Atlantic Deep Water slowed by 7% per year (95% confidence that the rate of slowing is greater than 2.5% per year).

Description: Water-soluble organic carbon in snow and ice deposited at Alpine, Greenland, and Antarctic sites: a critical review of available data and their atmospheric relevance Climate of the Past, 9, 2195-2211, 2013 Author(s): M. Legrand, S. Preunkert, B. Jourdain, J. Guilhermet, X. Fa{ï}n, I. Alekhina, and J. R. Petit While it is now recognized that organic matter dominates the present-day atmospheric aerosol load over continents, its sources remain poorly known. The studies of organic species or organic fractions trapped in ice cores may help to overcome this lack of knowledge. Available data on the dissolved (or total) organic carbon (DOC or TOC) content of snow and ice often appear largely inconsistent, and, until now, no critical review has been conducted to understand the causes of these inconsistencies. To draw a more consistent picture of the organic carbon amount present in solid precipitation that accumulates on cold glaciers, we here review available data and, when needed, complete the data set with analyses of selected samples. The different data sets are then discussed by considering the age (modern versus pre-industrial, Holocene versus Last glacial Maximum) and type (surface snow, firn, or ice) of investigated samples, the deployed method, and the applied contamination control. Finally, the OC (DOC or TOC) levels of Antarctic, Greenland, and Alpine ice cores are compared and discussed with respect to natural (biomass burning, vegetation emissions) and anthropogenic sources (fossil fuel combustion) contributing to atmospheric OC aerosol.

Description: Evaluation of seasonal climates of the Mediterranean and nothern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5347-5389, 2013 Author(s): A. Perez-Sanz, G. Li, P. González-Sampériz, and S. P. Harrison We analyze the spatial expression of seasonal climates of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in pre-Industrial ( piControl ) and mid-Holocene ( midHolocene , 6 ka) simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Modern observations show four distinct precipitation regimes characterized by differences in the seasonal distribution and total amount of precipitation: an equatorial band characterized by a double peak in rainfall, the monsoon zone characterized by summer rainfall, the desert characterized by low seasonality and total precipitation, and the Mediterranean zone characterized by summer drought. Most models correctly simulate the position of the Mediterranean and the equatorial climates in the piControl simulations, but over-estimate the extent of monsoon influence and underestimate the extent of desert. However, most models fail to reproduce the amount of precipitation in each zone. Model biases in the simulated magnitude of precipitation are unrelated to whether the models reproduce the correct spatial patterns of each regime. In the midHolocene , the models simulate a reduction in winter rainfall in the equatorial zone, and a northward expansion of the monsoon with a significant increase in summer and autumn rainfall. Precipitation is slightly increased in the desert, mainly in summer and autumn, with northward expansion of the monsoon. Changes in the Mediterranean are small, although there is an increase in spring precipitation consistent with palaeo-observations of increased growing-season rainfall. Comparison with reconstructions shows that most models under-estimate the mid-Holocene changes in annual precipitation, except in the equatorial zone. Biases in the piControl have only a limited influence on midHolocene anomalies in ocean-atmosphere models; carbon-cycle models show no relationship between piControl bias and midHolocene anomalies. Biases in the prediction of the midHolocene monsoon expansion are unrelated to how well the models simulate changes in Mediterranean climate.

Description: An approach to computing direction relations between separated object groups Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1591-1599, 2013 Author(s): H. Yan, Z. Wang, and J. Li Direction relations between object groups play an important role in qualitative spatial reasoning, spatial computation and spatial recognition. However, none of existing models can be used to compute direction relations between object groups. To fill this gap, an approach to computing direction relations between separated object groups is proposed in this paper, which is theoretically based on gestalt principles and the idea of multi-directions. The approach firstly triangulates the two object groups, and then it constructs the Voronoi diagram between the two groups using the triangular network. After this, the normal of each Voronoi edge is calculated, and the quantitative expression of the direction relations is constructed. Finally, the quantitative direction relations are transformed into qualitative ones. The psychological experiments show that the proposed approach can obtain direction relations both between two single objects and between two object groups, and the results are correct from the point of view of spatial cognition.

Description: Orbital and millennial-scale environmental changes between 64 and 25 ka BP recorded in Black Sea sediments Climate of the Past Discussions, 9, 5439-5477, 2013 Author(s): L. S. Shumilovskikh, D. Fleitmann, N. R. Nowaczyk, H. Behling, F. Marret, A. Wegwerth, and H. W. Arz High-resolution pollen and dinoflagellate cyst records from marine sediment core 25-GC1 were used to reconstruct vegetation dynamics in Northern Anatolia and surface conditions of the Black Sea between 64 and 25 ka BP. During this period, the dominance of Artemisia in the pollen record indicates a steppe landscape and arid climate conditions. However, the presence of temperate and warm-temperate arboreal pollen suggests the existence of glacial refugia in Northern Anatolia. A general cooling trend towards 25 ka BP is evidenced by the decrease of Quercus and increase of Pinus . There is evidence of orbital-driven vegetation dynamics in Northern Anatolia during 64–25 ka BP with spread of steppe during precession minima (insolation maxima) and development of forests during precession maxima (insolation minima). Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events are characterized by a marked increase in temperate tree pollen, indicating a spread of forests due to warm and wet conditions in Northern Anatolia. The dominance of Pyxidinopsis psilata and Spiniferites cruciformis in the dinocyst record indicates a rather brackish Black Sea during the last glacial period. The decrease of marine indicators (marine dinocysts, acritachs) at ~ 54 ka BP and increase of freshwater algae ( Pediastrum, Botryococcus ) from 32 to 25 ka BP reveals freshening of the Black Sea surface water, related to orbital-driven arid/humid phases in the region, influencing hydrology and level changes of the Black Sea. D–O interstadials are characterized by high dinocyst concentrations and calcium carbonate content, as a result of an increase in primary productivity in the Black Sea. Heinrich events show a similar impact on the environment in Northern Anatolia/Black Sea region as D–O stadials.

Description: A method to represent ozone response to large changes in precursor emissions using high-order sensitivity analysis in photochemical models Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 1601-1608, 2013 Author(s): G. Yarwood, C. Emery, J. Jung, U. Nopmongcol, and T. Sakulyanontvittaya Photochemical grid models (PGMs) are used to simulate tropospheric ozone and quantify its response to emission changes. PGMs are often applied for annual simulations to provide both maximum concentrations for assessing compliance with air quality standards and frequency distributions for assessing human exposure. Efficient methods for computing ozone at different emission levels can improve the quality of ozone air quality management efforts. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using the decoupled direct method (DDM) to calculate first- and second-order sensitivity of ozone to anthropogenic NO x and VOC emissions in annual PGM simulations at continental scale. Algebraic models are developed that use Taylor series to produce complete annual frequency distributions of hourly ozone at any location and any anthropogenic emission level between zero and 100%, adjusted independently for NO x and VOC. We recommend computing the sensitivity coefficients at the midpoint of the emissions range over which they are intended to be applied, in this case with 50% anthropogenic emissions. The algebraic model predictions can be improved by combining sensitivity coefficients computed at 10 and 50% anthropogenic emissions. Compared to brute force simulations, algebraic model predictions tend to be more accurate in summer than winter, at rural than urban locations, and with 100% than zero anthropogenic emissions. Equations developed to combine sensitivity coefficients computed with 10 and 50% anthropogenic emissions are able to reproduce brute force simulation results with zero and 100% anthropogenic emissions with a mean bias of less than 2 ppb and mean error of less than 3 ppb averaged over 22 US cities.

Description: Major dust events in Europe during marine isotope stage 5 (130–74 ka): a climatic interpretation of the "markers" Climate of the Past, 9, 2213-2230, 2013 Author(s): D.-D. Rousseau, M. Ghil, G. Kukla, A. Sima, P. Antoine, M. Fuchs, C. Hatté, F. Lagroix, M. Debret, and O. Moine At present, major dust storms are occurring at mid-latitudes in the Middle East and Asia, as well as at low latitudes in Northern Africa and in Australia. Western Europe, though, does not experience such dramatic climate events, except for some African dust reaching it from the Sahara. This modern situation is of particular interest, in the context of future climate projections, since the present interglacial is usually interpreted, in this context, as an analog of the warm Eemian interval. European terrestrial records show, however, major dust events during the penultimate interglacial and early glacial. These events are easily observed in loess records by their whitish-color deposits, which lie above and below dark chernozem paleosols in Central European records of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 age. We describe here the base of the Dolni Vestonice (DV) loess sequence, Czech Republic, as the reference of such records. The dust is deposited during intervals that are characterized by poor vegetation – manifested by high δ 13 C values and low magnetic susceptibility – while the fine sand and clay in the deposits shows grain sizes that are clearly different from the overlying pleniglacial loess deposits. Some of these dust events have been previously described as "Markers" or Marker Silts (MS) by one of us (G. Kukla), and are dated at about 111–109 ka and 93–92 ka, with a third and last one slightly visible at about 75–73 ka. Other events correspond to the loess material of Kukla's cycles, and are described as eolian silts (ES); they are observed in the same DV sequence and are dated at about 106–105 ka, 88–86 ka, and 78.5–77 ka. These dates are determined by considering the OSL ages with their errors measured on the studied sequence, and the comparison with Greenland ice-core and European speleothem chronologies. The fine eolian deposits mentioned above, MS as well as ES, correspond to short events that lasted about 2 ka; they are synchronous with re-advances of the polar front over the North Atlantic, as observed in marine sediment cores. These deposits also correlate with important changes observed in European vegetation. Some ES and MS events appear to be coeval with significant dust peaks recorded in the Greenland ice cores, while others are not. This decoupling between the European eolian and Greenland dust depositions is of considerable interest, as it differs from the fully glacial situation, in which the Eurasian loess sedimentation mimics the Greenland dust record. Previous field observations supported an interpretation of MS events as caused by continental dust storms. We show here, by a comparison with speleothems of the same age found in the northern Alps, that different atmospheric-circulation modes seem to be responsible for the two categories of dust events, MS vs. ES.

Description: A Lagrangian advection scheme with shape matrix (LASM) for solving advection problems Geoscientific Model Development, 7, 2951-2968, 2014 Author(s): L. Dong, B. Wang, and L. Liu A new Lagrangian advection scheme with shape matrix (LASM) is proposed to take advantage of the extreme low numerical diffusion of the Lagrangian methods. The tracer is discretized into finite parcels, which move along the downstream trajectories. Different from other Lagrangian schemes, the parcel shape is simulated explicitly by a linear transformation matrix. By doing so, the aliasing error in the Lagrangian schemes is largely reduced without introducing substantial interparcel mixing in the pure advection stage, because the flow information will be respected when remapping tracer density onto the fixed model grids. An adaptive interparcel mixing algorithm is constructed to ensure the validity of the linear approximation of the parcel shape, where the mixing is only triggered when it is necessary and resembles the physical mixing. The total tracer mass on the parcels is conserved exactly. The new scheme is validated by using several test cases.

Description: Global representation of tropical cyclone-induced ocean thermal changes using Argo data – Part 2: Estimating air–sea heat fluxes and ocean heat content changes Ocean Science Discussions, 11, 2907-2937, 2014 Author(s): L. Cheng, J. Zhu, and R. L. Sriver We use Argo temperature data to examine changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and air–sea heat fluxes induced by tropical cyclones (TC)s on a global scale. A footprint technique that analyzes the vertical structure of cross-track thermal responses along all storm tracks during the period 2004–2012 is utilized (see part I). We find that TCs are responsible for 1.87 PW (11.05 W m −2 when averaging over the global ocean basin) of heat transfer annually from the global ocean to the atmosphere during storm passage (0–3 days) on a global scale. Of this total, 1.05 ± 0.20 PW (4.80 ± 0.85 W m −2 ) is caused by Tropical storms/Tropical depressions (TS/TD) and 0.82 ± 0.21 PW (6.25 ± 1.5 W m −2 ) is caused by hurricanes. Our findings indicate that ocean heat loss by TCs may be a substantial missing piece of the global ocean heat budget. Net changes in OHC after storm passage is estimated by analyzing the temperature anomalies during wake recovery following storm events (4–20 days after storm passage) relative to pre-storm conditions. Results indicate the global ocean experiences a 0.75 ± 0.25 PW (5.98 ± 2.1W m −2 ) net heat gain annually for hurricanes. In contrast, under TS/TD conditions, ocean experiences 0.41 ± 0.21 PW (1.90 ± 0.96 W m −2 ) net ocean heat loss, suggesting the overall oceanic thermal response is particularly sensitive to the intensity of the event. The net ocean heat uptake caused by all storms is 0.34 PW.

Description: Laminated sediments in the Bering Sea reveal atmospheric teleconnections to Greenland climate on millennial to decadal timescales during the last deglaciation Climate of the Past, 10, 2215-2236, 2014 Author(s): H. Kuehn, L. Lembke-Jene, R. Gersonde, O. Esper, F. Lamy, H. Arz, G. Kuhn, and R. Tiedemann During the last glacial termination, the upper North Pacific Ocean underwent dramatic and rapid changes in oxygenation that lead to the transient intensification of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), recorded by the widespread occurrence of laminated sediments on circum-Pacific continental margins. We present a new laminated sediment record from the mid-depth (1100 m) northern Bering Sea margin that provides insight into these deglacial OMZ maxima with exceptional, decadal-scale detail. Combined ultrahigh-resolution micro-X-ray-fluorescence (micro-XRF) data and sediment facies analysis of laminae reveal an alternation between predominantly terrigenous and diatom-dominated opal sedimentation. The diatomaceous laminae are interpreted to represent spring/summer productivity events related to the retreating sea ice margin. We identified five laminated sections in the deglacial part of our site. Lamina counts were carried out on these sections and correlated with the Bølling–Allerød and Preboreal phases in the North Greenland Ice Core (NGRIP) oxygen isotope record, indicating an annual deposition of individual lamina couplets (varves). The observed rapid decadal intensifications of anoxia, in particular within the Bølling–Allerød, are tightly coupled to short-term warm events through increases in regional export production. This dependence of laminae formation on warmer temperatures is underlined by a correlation with published Bering Sea sea surface temperature records and δ 18 O data of planktic foraminifera from the Gulf of Alaska. The rapidity of the observed changes strongly implies a close atmospheric teleconnection between North Pacific and North Atlantic regions. We suggest that concomitant increases in export production and subsequent remineralization of organic matter in the Bering Sea, in combination with oxygen-poor waters entering the Being Sea, drove down oxygen concentrations to values below 0.1 mL L −1 and caused laminae preservation. Calculated benthic–planktic ventilation ages show no significant variations throughout the last deglaciation, indicating that changes in formation rates or differing sources of North Pacific mid-depth waters are not prime candidates for strengthening the OMZ at our site. The age models established by our correlation procedure allow for the determination of calendar age control points for the Bølling–Allerød and the Preboreal that are independent of the initial radiocarbon-based chronology. Resulting surface reservoir ages range within 730–990 yr during the Bølling–Allerød, 800–1100 yr in the Younger Dryas, and 765–775 yr for the Preboreal.

Description: Implication of methodological uncertainties for mid-Holocene sea surface temperature reconstructions Climate of the Past, 10, 2237-2252, 2014 Author(s): I. Hessler, S. P. Harrison, M. Kucera, C. Waelbroeck, M.-T. Chen, C. Anderson, A. de Vernal, B. Fréchette, A. Cloke-Hayes, G. Leduc, and L. Londeix We present and examine a multi-sensor global compilation of mid-Holocene (MH) sea surface temperatures (SST), based on Mg/Ca and alkenone palaeothermometry and reconstructions obtained using planktonic foraminifera and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst census counts. We assess the uncertainties originating from using different methodologies and evaluate the potential of MH SST reconstructions as a benchmark for climate-model simulations. The comparison between different analytical approaches (time frame, baseline climate) shows the choice of time window for the MH has a negligible effect on the reconstructed SST pattern, but the choice of baseline climate affects both the magnitude and spatial pattern of the reconstructed SSTs. Comparison of the SST reconstructions made using different sensors shows significant discrepancies at a regional scale, with uncertainties often exceeding the reconstructed SST anomaly. Apparent patterns in SST may largely be a reflection of the use of different sensors in different regions. Overall, the uncertainties associated with the SST reconstructions are generally larger than the MH anomalies. Thus, the SST data currently available cannot serve as a target for benchmarking model simulations. Further evaluations of potential subsurface and/or seasonal artifacts that may contribute to obscure the MH SST reconstructions are urgently needed to provide reliable benchmarks for model evaluations.

Description: Sensitivity of the Mediterranean sea level to atmospheric pressure and free surface elevation numerical formulation in NEMO Geoscientific Model Development, 7, 3001-3015, 2014 Author(s): P. Oddo, A. Bonaduce, N. Pinardi, and A. Guarnieri The sensitivity of the dynamics of the Mediterranean Sea to atmospheric pressure and free surface elevation formulation using NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) was evaluated. Four different experiments were carried out in the Mediterranean Sea using filtered or explicit free surface numerical schemes and accounting for the effect of atmospheric pressure in addition to wind and buoyancy fluxes. Model results were evaluated by coherency and power spectrum analysis with tide gauge data. We found that atmospheric pressure plays an important role for periods shorter than 100 days. The free surface formulation is important to obtain the correct ocean response for periods shorter than 30 days. At frequencies higher than 15 days −1 the Mediterranean basin's response to atmospheric pressure was not coherent and the performance of the model strongly depended on the specific area considered. A large-amplitude seasonal oscillation observed in the experiments using a filtered free surface was not evident in the corresponding explicit free surface formulation case, which was due to a phase shift between mass fluxes in the Gibraltar Strait and at the surface. The configuration with time splitting and atmospheric pressure always performed best; the differences were enhanced at very high frequencies.

Description: Gaseous chemistry and aerosol mechanism developments for version 3.5.1 of the online regional model, WRF-Chem Geoscientific Model Development, 7, 2557-2579, 2014 Author(s): S. Archer-Nicholls, D. Lowe, S. Utembe, J. Allan, R. A. Zaveri, J. D. Fast, Ø. Hodnebrog, H. Denier van der Gon, and G. McFiggans We have made a number of developments to the Weather, Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), with the aim of improving model prediction of trace atmospheric gas-phase chemical and aerosol composition, and of interactions between air quality and weather. A reduced form of the Common Reactive Intermediates gas-phase chemical mechanism (CRIv2-R5) has been added, using the Kinetic Pre-Processor (KPP) interface, to enable more explicit simulation of VOC degradation. N 2 O 5 heterogeneous chemistry has been added to the existing sectional MOSAIC aerosol module, and coupled to both the CRIv2-R5 and existing CBM-Z gas-phase schemes. Modifications have also been made to the sea-spray aerosol emission representation, allowing the inclusion of primary organic material in sea-spray aerosol. We have worked on the European domain, with a particular focus on making the model suitable for the study of nighttime chemistry and oxidation by the nitrate radical in the UK atmosphere. Driven by appropriate emissions, wind fields and chemical boundary conditions, implementation of the different developments are illustrated, using a modified version of WRF-Chem 3.4.1, in order to demonstrate the impact that these changes have in the Northwest European domain. These developments are publicly available in WRF-Chem from version 3.5.1 onwards.

Description: Oxygen stable isotopes during the Last Glacial Maximum climate: perspectives from data–model ( i LOVECLIM) comparison Climate of the Past, 10, 1939-1955, 2014 Author(s): T. Caley, D. M. Roche, C. Waelbroeck, and E. Michel We use the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean three-dimensional model of intermediate complexity i LOVECLIM to simulate the climate and oxygen stable isotopic signal during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years). By using a model that is able to explicitly simulate the sensor (δ 18 O), results can be directly compared with data from climatic archives in the different realms. Our results indicate that i LOVECLIM reproduces well the main feature of the LGM climate in the atmospheric and oceanic components. The annual mean δ 18 O in precipitation shows more depleted values in the northern and southern high latitudes during the LGM. The model reproduces very well the spatial gradient observed in ice core records over the Greenland ice sheet. We observe a general pattern toward more enriched values for continental calcite δ 18 O in the model at the LGM, in agreement with speleothem data. This can be explained by both a general atmospheric cooling in the tropical and subtropical regions and a reduction in precipitation as confirmed by reconstruction derived from pollens and plant macrofossils. Data–model comparison for sea surface temperature indicates that i LOVECLIM is capable to satisfyingly simulate the change in oceanic surface conditions between the LGM and present. Our data–model comparison for calcite δ 18 O allows investigating the large discrepancies with respect to glacial temperatures recorded by different microfossil proxies in the North Atlantic region. The results argue for a strong mean annual cooling in the area south of Iceland and Greenland between the LGM and present (〉 6 °C), supporting the foraminifera transfer function reconstruction but in disagreement with alkenones and dinocyst reconstructions. The data–model comparison also reveals that large positive calcite δ 18 O anomaly in the Southern Ocean may be explained by an important cooling, although the driver of this pattern is unclear. We deduce a large positive δ 18 Osw anomaly for the north Indian Ocean that contrasts with a large negative δ 18 Osw anomaly in the China Sea between the LGM and the present. This pattern may be linked to changes in the hydrological cycle over these regions. Our simulation of the deep ocean suggests that changes in δ 18 Osw between the LGM and the present are not spatially homogeneous. This is supported by reconstructions derived from pore fluids in deep-sea sediments. The model underestimates the deep ocean cooling thus biasing the comparison with benthic calcite δ 18 O data. Nonetheless, our data–model comparison supports a heterogeneous cooling of a few degrees (2–4 °C) in the LGM Ocean.

Description: Dynamics of turbulent western boundary currents at low latitude in a shallow water model Ocean Science Discussions, 11, 2461-2493, 2014 Author(s): C. Q. C. Akuetevi and A. Wirth The dynamics of low latitude turbulent western boundary currents crossing the equator is considered using numerical results from integrations of a reduced gravity shallow-water model. For viscosity values of 1000 m 2 s −1 and more, the boundary layer dynamics compares well to the analytical Munk-layer solution. When the viscosity is reduced, the boundary layer becomes turbulent and coherent structures in form of anticyclonic eddies, bursts (violent detachments of the viscous sub-layer) and dipoles appear. Three distinct boundary layers emerge, the viscous sub-layer, the advective boundary layer and the extended boundary layer. The first is characterized by a dominant vorticity balance between the viscous transport and the advective transport of vorticity. The second by a balance between the advection of planetary vorticity and the advective transport of relative vorticity. The extended boundary layer is the area to which turbulent motion from the boundary extends. The scaling of the three boundary layer thicknesses with viscosity is evaluated. Characteristic scales of the dynamics and dissipation are determined. A pragmatic approach to determine the eddy viscosity diagnostically for coarse resolution numerical models is proposed.

Description: A strategy for GIS-based 3-D slope stability modelling over large areas Geoscientific Model Development, 7, 2969-2982, 2014 Author(s): M. Mergili, I. Marchesini, M. Alvioli, M. Metz, B. Schneider-Muntau, M. Rossi, and F. Guzzetti GIS-based deterministic models may be used for landslide susceptibility mapping over large areas. However, such efforts require specific strategies to (i) keep computing time at an acceptable level, and (ii) parameterize the geotechnical data. We test and optimize the performance of the GIS-based, 3-D slope stability model r.slope.stability in terms of computing time and model results. The model was developed as a C- and Python-based raster module of the open source software GRASS GIS and considers the 3-D geometry of the sliding surface. It calculates the factor of safety (FoS) and the probability of slope failure ( P f ) for a number of randomly selected potential slip surfaces, ellipsoidal or truncated in shape. Model input consists of a digital elevation model (DEM), ranges of geotechnical parameter values derived from laboratory tests, and a range of possible soil depths estimated in the field. Probability density functions are exploited to assign P f to each ellipsoid. The model calculates for each pixel multiple values of FoS and P f corresponding to different sliding surfaces. The minimum value of FoS and the maximum value of P f for each pixel give an estimate of the landslide susceptibility in the study area. Optionally, r.slope.stability is able to split the study area into a defined number of tiles, allowing parallel processing of the model on the given area. Focusing on shallow landslides, we show how multi-core processing makes it possible to reduce computing times by a factor larger than 20 in the study area. We further demonstrate how the number of random slip surfaces and the sampling of parameters influence the average value of P f and the capacity of r.slope.stability to predict the observed patterns of shallow landslides in the 89.5 km 2 Collazzone area in Umbria, central Italy.

Description: Deciphering the spatio-temporal complexity of climate change of the last deglaciation: a model analysis Climate of the Past, 7, 591-602, 2011 Author(s): D. M. Roche, H. Renssen, D. Paillard, and G. Levavasseur Understanding the sequence of events occuring during the last major glacial to interglacial transition (21 ka BP to 9 ka BP) is a challenging task that has the potential to unveil the mechanisms behind large scale climate changes. Though many studies have focused on the understanding of the complex sequence of rapid climatic change that accompanied or interrupted the deglaciation, few have analysed it in a more theoretical framework with simple forcings. In the following, we address when and where the first significant temperature anomalies appeared when using slow varying forcing of the last deglaciation. We used here coupled transient simulations of the last deglaciation, including ocean, atmosphere and vegetation components to analyse the spatial timing of the deglaciation. To keep the analysis in a simple framework, we did not include freshwater forcings that potentially cause rapid climate shifts during that time period. We aimed to disentangle the direct and subsequent response of the climate system to slow forcing and moreover, the location where those changes are more clearly expressed. In a data – modelling comparison perspective, this could help understand the physically plausible phasing between known forcings and recorded climatic changes. Our analysis of climate variability could also help to distinguish deglacial warming signals from internal climate variability. We thus are able to better pinpoint the onset of local deglaciation, as defined by the first significant local warming and further show that there is a large regional variability associated with it, even with the set of slow forcings used here. In our model, the first significant hemispheric warming occurred simultaneously in the North and in the South and is a direct response to the obliquity forcing.

Description: Calculating the water and heat balances of the Eastern Mediterranean basin using ocean modelling and available meteorological, hydrological, and ocean data Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1301-1338, 2011 Author(s): M. Shaltout and A. Omstedt This paper analyses the Eastern Mediterranean water and heat balances over a 52-yr period. The modelling uses a process-oriented approach resolving the one-dimensional equations of momentum, heat, and salt conservation, with turbulence modelled using a two-equation model. The exchange through the Sicily Channel connecting the Eastern and Western basins is calculated from satellite altimeter data. The results illustrates that calculated surface temperature and salinity follow the reanalysed data well and with biases of −0.4 °C and −0.004, respectively. Monthly and yearly temperature and salinity cycles are also satisfactory simulated. Reanalysed data and calculated water mass structure and heat balance components are in good agreement, indicating that the air-sea interaction and the turbulent mixing are realistically simulated. The study illustrates that the water balance in the Eastern Mediterranean basin is controlled by the difference between inflows/outflows through the Sicily Channel and by the net precipitation rates. The heat balance is controlled by the heat loss from the water surface, sun radiation into the sea, and heat flow through the Sicily Channel, the first two displaying both climate trends. An annual net heat loss of approximately 9 W m −2 was balanced by net heat in flow through the Sicily Channel.

Description: Extraction of spatial-temporal rules from mesoscale eddies in the South China Sea Based on rough set theory Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1261-1300, 2011 Author(s): Y. Du, X. Fan, Z. He, F. Su, C. Zhou, H. Mao, and D. Wang In this paper, a rough set theory is introduced to represent spatial-temporal relationships and extract the corresponding rules from typical mesoscale-eddy states in the South China Sea (SCS). Three decision attributes are adopted in this study, which make the approach flexible in retrieving spatial-temporal rules with different features. Spatial-temporal rules of typical states in the SCS are extracted as three decision attributes, which then are confirmed by the previous works. The results demonstrate that this approach is effective in extracting spatial-temporal rules from typical mesoscale-eddy states, and therefore provides a powerful approach to forecasts in the future. Spatial-temporal rules in the SCS indicate that warm eddies following the rules are generally in the southeastern and central SCS around 2000 m isobaths in winter. Their intensity and vorticity are weaker than those of cold eddies. They usually move a shorter distance. By contrast, cold eddies are in 2000 m-deeper regions of the southwestern and northeastern SCS in spring and fall. Their intensity and vorticity are strong. Usually they move a long distance. In winter, a few rules are followed by cold eddies in the northern tip of the basin and southwest of Taiwan Island rather than warm eddies, indicating cold eddies may be well-regulated in the region. Several warm-eddy rules are achieved west of Luzon Island, indicating warm eddies may be well-regulated in the region as well. Otherwise, warm and cold eddies are distributed not only in the jet flow off southern Vietnam induced by intraseasonal wind stress in summer-fall, but also in the northern shallow water, which should be a focus of future study.

Description: Tropical climate and vegetation changes during Heinrich Event 1: comparing climate model output to pollen-based vegetation reconstructions with emphasis on the region around the tropical Atlantic Ocean Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1973-2019, 2011 Author(s): D. Handiani, A. Paul, and L. Dupont Abrupt climate changes associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) about 18 to 15 thousand years before present (ka BP) strongly affected climate and vegetation patterns not only in the Northern Hemisphere, but also in tropical regions in the South Atlantic Ocean. We used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era (PI), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial). The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea surface temperature patterns and enhanced interhemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. It allowed us to investigate the vegetation changes that result from a transition to a drier climate as predicted for northern tropical Africa due to a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). We found that a cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those plant-functional types (PFTs) in Northern Tropical Africa that are indicative of an increased desertification, and a retreat of broadleaf forests in Western Africa and Northern South America. We used the PFTs generated by the model to calculate mega-biomes to allow for a direct comparison between paleodata and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well to the modern and LGM sites of the BIOME6000 (v.4.2) reconstruction, except that our present-day simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in Southern Europe and our LGM simulation simulated more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The mega-biomes from the HE1 simulation with glacial background climate were in agreement with paleovegetation data from land and ocean proxies in West, Central, and Northern Tropical Africa as well as Northeast South America. However, our model did not agree well with predicted biome distributions in Eastern South America.

Description: Tracer distribution in the Pacific Ocean following a release off Japan – what does an oceanic general circulation model tell us? Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1441-1466, 2011 Author(s): H. Dietze and I. Kriest In the aftermath of an earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011 considerable amounts of radioactive materials were accidentally released into the sea off Fukushima-Daiichi, Japan. This study uses a three-dimensional eddy-resolving oceanic general circulation model to explore potential pathways of a tracer, similar to 137 Cs, from the coast to the open ocean. Results indicate that enhanced concentrations meet a receding spring bloom offshore and that the area of enhanced concentrations offshore is strongly determined by surface mixed layer dynamics. However, huge uncertainties remain. Among them are the realism of the simulated cross-shelf transport and apparently inconsistent estimates of the particle reactivity of 137 Cs which are discussed in a brief literature review. We argue that a comprehensive set of 137 Cs measurements, including sites offshore, could be a unique opportunity to both evaluate and advance the evaluation of oceanic general circulation models.

Description: Bridging the Faraoni and Selli oceanic anoxic events: short and repetitive dys- and anaerobic episodes during the late Hauterivian to early Aptian in the central Tethys Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 2021-2059, 2011 Author(s): K. B. Föllmi, M. Bôle, N. Jammet, P. Froidevaux, A. Godet, S. Bodin, T. Adatte, V. Matera, D. Fleitmann, and J. E. Spangenberg A detailed stratigraphical and geochemical analysis was performed on the upper part of the Maiolica Formation outcropping in the Breggia (southern Switzerland) and Capriolo sections (northern Italy). In these localities, the Maiolica Formation consists of well-bedded, partly siliceous, pelagic, micritic carbonate, which lodges numerous thin, dark and organic-rich layers. Stable-isotope, phosphorus, organic-carbon and a suite of redox-sensitive trace-metal contents (RSTE: Mo, U, Co, V and As) were measured. Higher densities of organic-rich layers were identified in the uppermost Hauterivian, lower Barremian and the Barremian-Aptian boundary intervals, whereas the upper Barremian interval and the interval immediately following the Barremian-Aptian boundary interval are characterized by lower densities of organic-rich layers. TOC contents, RSTE pattern and C org :P tot ratios indicate that most layers were deposited under dysaerobic rather than anaerobic conditions and that latter conditions were likely restricted to short intervals in the latest Hauterivian, the early Barremian and the pre-Selli early Aptian. Correlations are possible with organic-rich intervals in central Italy (the Gorgo a Cerbara section) and the Boreal northwest German Basin, and with the facies and drowning pattern in the evolution of the Helvetic segment of the northern Tethyan carbonate platform. Our data and correlations suggest that the latest Hauterivian witnessed the progressive installation of dysaerobic conditions in the Tethys, which went along with the onset in sediment condensation, phosphogenesis and platform drowning on the northern Tethyan margin, and which culminated in the Faraoni anoxic episode. This brief episode is followed by further episodes of dysaerobic conditions in the Tethys and the northwest German Basin, which became more frequent and progressively stronger in the late early Barremian. Platform drowning persisted and did not halt before the latest early Barremian. The late Barremian witnessed diminishing frequencies and intensities in dysaerobic conditions, which went along with the progressive installation of the Urgonian carbonate platform. Near the Barremian-Aptian boundary, the increasing density in dysaerobic episodes in the Tethyan and northwest German Basins is paralleled by a change towards heterozoan carbonate production on the northern Tethyan shelf. The following return to more oxygenated conditions is correlated with the second phase of Urgonian platform growth and the period immediately preceding and corresponding to the Selli anoxic episode is characterized by renewed platform drowning and the change to heterozoan carbonate production. Changes towards more humid climate conditions were likely the cause for the repetitive installation of dys- to anaerobic conditions in the Tethyan and Boreal basins and the accompanying changes in the evolution of the carbonate platform towards heterozoan carbonate-producing ecosystems and platform drowning.

Description: Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the Full City accident Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1467-1504, 2011 Author(s): G. Broström, A. Carrasco, L. R. Hole, S. Dick, F. Janssen, J. Mattsson, and S. Berger Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important decision support system (DeSS) useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models is of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the Full City accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws but including an analysis based on a higher resolution model (1.5 km resolution) for the area the model system show results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble using three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

Description: The last deglaciation: timing the bipolar seesaw Climate of the Past, 7, 671-683, 2011 Author(s): J. B. Pedro, T. D. van Ommen, S. O. Rasmussen, V. I. Morgan, J. Chappellaz, A. D. Moy, V. Masson-Delmotte, and M. Delmotte Precise information on the relative timing of north-south climate variations is a key to resolving questions concerning the mechanisms that force and couple climate changes between the hemispheres. We present a new composite record made from five well-resolved Antarctic ice core records that robustly represents the timing of regional Antarctic climate change during the last deglaciation. Using fast variations in global methane gas concentrations as time markers, the Antarctic composite is directly compared to Greenland ice core records, allowing a detailed mapping of the inter-hemispheric sequence of climate changes. Consistent with prior studies the synchronized records show that warming (and cooling) trends in Antarctica closely match cold (and warm) periods in Greenland on millennial timescales. For the first time, we also identify a sub-millennial component to the inter-hemispheric coupling. Within the Antarctic Cold Reversal the strongest Antarctic cooling occurs during the pronounced northern warmth of the Bølling. Warming then resumes in Antarctica, potentially as early as the Intra-Allerød Cold Period, but with dating uncertainty that could place it as late as the onset of the Younger Dryas stadial. There is little-to-no time lag between climate transitions in Greenland and opposing changes in Antarctica. Our results lend support to fast acting inter-hemispheric coupling mechanisms, including recently proposed bipolar atmospheric teleconnections and/or rapid bipolar ocean teleconnections.

Description: Degree-day melt models for paleoclimate reconstruction from tropical glaciers: calibration from mass balance and meteorological data of the Zongo glacier (Bolivia, 16 ° S) Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 2119-2158, 2011 Author(s): P.-H. Blard, P. Wagnon, J. Lavé, A. Soruco, J.-E. Sicart, and B. Francou This paper describes several simple positive degree-day models (hereafter referred as "PDD models") designed to provide past climatic reconstruction from tropical glacier paleo-equilibrium altitude lines (paleo-ELA). Several ablation laws were tested and calibrated using the monthly ablation and meteorological data recorded from 1997 to 2006 on the Zongo glacier (Cordillera Real, Bolivia, 16° S). The performed inversion analyses indicate that the model provides a better reconstruction of the mass balance if the ablation is modeled with different melting factors for snow and ice. The inclusion of short-wave solar radiations does not induce a substantial improvement. However, this type of model may be very useful to quantify the effects of local topographic (orientation, shading) and to take into account incoming solar radiation changes at geological timescale. The performed sensitivity test indicates that, in spite of the uncertainty in the calibrated snow-ice ablation factors, all models are able to provide paleotemperatures with ~1 °C uncertainty for a given paleoprecipitation. This error includes a 50 m uncertainty in the estimate of the paleoELA. Finally, the models are characterized by different precipitation-temperature sensitivities: if a similar warming is applied, model including different ablation factors for snow and ice requires a lower precipitation increase (by ∼15 %) than others to maintain the ELA.

Description: Impact of combining GRACE and GOCE gravity data on ocean circulation estimates Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1535-1573, 2011 Author(s): T. Janjić, J. Schröter, R. Savcenko, W. Bosch, A. Albertella, R. Rummel, and O. Klatt In this work we examine the impact of assimilation of multi-mission-altimeter data and the GRACE/GOCE gravity fields into the finite element ocean model (FEOM), with the focus on the Southern Ocean circulation. In order to do so, we use the geodetic approach for obtaining the dynamical ocean topography (DOT), that combines the multi-mission-altimeter data and the GRACE/GOCE gravity fields, and requires that both fields be spectrally consistent. The spectral consistency is achieved by filtering of the sea surface height and the geoid using profile approach. Combining the GRACE and GOCE data, a considerably shorter filter length resolving more DOT details can be used. In order to specify the spectrally consistent geodetic DOT we applied the Jekeli-Wahr filter corresponding to 241 km, 121 km, 97 km and 81 km halfwidths for the GRACE/GOCE based gravity field model GOCO01S and to the sea surface. More realistic features of the ocean assimilation were obtained in the Weddel gyre area due to increased resolution of the data fields, particularly for temperature field at the 800 m depth compared to Argo data.

Description: Reply to Henriksson et al.'s comment on "Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity" by Annan and Hargreaves (2010) Climate of the Past, 7, 587-589, 2011 Author(s): J. D. Annan and J. C. Hargreaves Henriksson et al. (2010), hereafter HALTL10, criticize Annan and Hargreaves (2006a) (AH06) primarily on the grounds that we assumed that different sources of data were conditionally independent given the climate sensitivity. While we consider this approximation to have been a reasonable one under the circumstances (and provided arguments to justify this approach), we also acknowledged its importance in our original paper and performed several sensitivity analyses. The alternative calculations presented by HALTL10 appear to strengthen rather than contradict our conclusion. HALTL10 additionally criticize Annan and Hargreaves (2009) (AH09) for proposing a Cauchy type prior (as an alternative to the use of a uniform prior, which was widespread up to that time) "without sufficient support", and further claim that anticipated economic damages were used as a means of selecting the prior. We are surprised by these claims, especially considering that the proposed prior was justified at some length both on the basis of both the "Charney report" (National Research Council, 1979) and basic physical arguments, and also in light of our elementary demonstration of the pathological failings of the most commonly-used alternative. Thus, these claims are factually incorrect.

Description: Deglaciation records of 17 O- excess in East Antarctica: reliable reconstruction of oceanic relative humidity from coastal sites Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1845-1886, 2011 Author(s): R. Winkler, A. Landais, H. Sodemann, L. Dümbgen, F. Prié, V. Masson-Delmotte, B. Stenni, and J. Jouzel We measured δ 17 O and δ 18 O in two Antarctic ice cores at EPICA Dome C (EDC) and TALDICE (TD), respectively and computed 17 O- excess with respect to VSMOW. The comparison of our 17 O- excess data with the previous record obtained at Vostok (Landais et al., 2008) revealed differences up to 35 ppm in 17 O- excess mean level and evolution for the three sites. Our data showed that the large increase depicted at Vostok (20 ppm) during the last deglaciation, is a regional and not a general pattern in the temporal distribution of 17 O- excess in East Antarctica. The EDC data display an increase of 13 ppm, whereas the TD data show no significant variation from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Early Holocene (EH). Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic revealed very different source regions for Vostok and EDC compared to TD. These findings combined with the results of a sensitivity analysis, using a Rayleigh-type isotopic model, suggest that relative humidity (RH) at the oceanic source region (OSR) are a determining factor for the spatial differences of 17 O- excess in East Antarctica. However, 17 O- excess in remote sites of continental Antarctica (e.g. Vostok) may be highly sensitive to local effects. Hence, we consider 17 O- excess in coastal East Antarctic ice cores (TD) to be more reliable as a proxy for RH at the OSR.

Description: Impact of oceanic processes on the carbon cycle during the last termination Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1887-1934, 2011 Author(s): N. Bouttes, D. Paillard, D. M. Roche, C. Waelbroeck, M. Kageyama, A. Lourantou, E. Michel, and L. Bopp During the last termination (from ~18 000 yr ago to ~9000 yr ago) the climate significantly warmed and the ice sheets melted. Simultaneously, atmospheric CO 2 increased from ~190 ppm to ~260 ppm. Although this CO 2 rise plays an important role in the deglacial warming, the reasons for its evolution are difficult to explain. Only box models have been used to run transient simulations of this carbon cycle transition, but by forcing the model with data constrained scenarios of the evolution of temperature, sea level, sea ice, NADW formation, Southern Ocean vertical mixing and biological carbon pump. More complex models (including GCMs) have investigated some of these mechanisms but they have only been used to try and explain LGM versus present day steady-state climates. In this study we use a climate-carbon coupled model of intermediate complexity to explore the role of three oceanic processes in transient simulations: the sinking of brines, stratification-dependant diffusion and iron fertilization. Carbonate compensation is accounted for in these simulations. We show that neither iron fertilization nor the sinking of brines alone can account for the evolution of CO 2 , and that only the combination of the sinking of brines and interactive diffusion can simultaneously simulate the increase in deep Southern Ocean δ 13 C. The scenario that agrees best with the data takes into account all mechanisms and favours a rapid cessation of the sinking of brines around 18 000 yr ago, when the Antarctic ice sheet extent was at its maximum. Sea ice formation was then shifted to the open ocean where the salty water is quickly mixed with fresher water, which prevents deep sinking of salty water and therefore breaks down the deep stratification and releases carbon from the abyss. Based on this scenario it is possible to simulate both the amplitude and timing of the CO 2 increase during the last termination in agreement with data. The atmospheric δ 13 C appears to be highly sensitive to changes in the terrestrial biosphere, underlining the need to better constrain the vegetation evolution during the termination.

Description: Methane variations on orbital timescales: a transient modeling experiment Climate of the Past, 7, 635-648, 2011 Author(s): T. Y. M. Konijnendijk, S. L. Weber, E. Tuenter, and M. van Weele Methane (CH 4 ) variations on orbital timescales are often associated with variations in wetland coverage, most notably in the summer monsoon areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Here we test this assumption by simulating orbitally forced variations in global wetland emissions, using a simple wetland distribution and CH 4 emissions model that has been run on the output of a climate model (CLIMBER-2) containing atmosphere, ocean and vegetation components. The transient climate modeling simulation extends over the last 650 000 yr and includes variations in land-ice distribution and greenhouse gases. Tropical temperature and global vegetation are found to be the dominant controls for global CH 4 emissions and therefore atmospheric concentrations. The relative importance of wetland coverage, vegetation coverage, and emission temperatures depends on the specific climatic zone (boreal, tropics and Indian/Asian monsoon area) and timescale (precession, obliquity and glacial-interglacial timescales). Despite the low spatial resolution of the climate model and crude parameterizations for methane production and release, simulated variations in CH 4 emissions agree well with those in measured concentrations, both in their time series and spectra. The simulated lags between emissions and orbital forcing also show close agreement with those found in measured data, both on the precession and obliquity timescale. We find causal links between atmospheric CH 4 concentrations and tropical temperatures and global vegetation, but only covariance between monsoon precipitation and CH 4 concentrations. The primary importance of the first two factors explains the lags found in the CH 4 record from ice cores. Simulation of the dynamical vegetation response to climate variation on orbital timescales would be needed to reduce the uncertainty in these preliminary attributions.

Description: Wind forcing of salinity anomalies in the Denmark Strait overflow Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1403-1440, 2011 Author(s): S. Hall, S. R. Dye, K. J. Heywood, and M. R. Wadley The overflow of dense water from the Nordic Seas to the North Atlantic through Denmark Strait is an important part of the global thermohaline circulation. The salinity of the overflow plume has been measured by an array of current meters across the continental slope off the coast of Angmagssalik, southeast Greenland since September 1998. During 2004 the salinity of the overflow plume changed dramatically, with the entire width of the array (70 km) freshening between January 2004 and July 2004, with a significant negative salinity anomaly of about 0.06 in May. The event in May represents a fresh anomaly of over 3 standard deviations from the mean since recording began in 1998. We show that the OCCAM 1/12° Ocean General Circulation Model not only reproduces the 2004 freshening event ( r =0.96, p

Description: Productivity response of calcareous nannoplankton in the South Atlantic to the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2) Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 2089-2118, 2011 Author(s): M. Dedert, H. M. Stoll, D. Kroon, N. Shimizu, and P. Ziveri The Early Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2) at ~53.7 Ma is one of multiple hyperthermal events that followed the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~55 Ma). In order to reconstruct the primary productivity response to the ETM2 in the South Atlantic, we have analyzed Sr/Ca ratios in various size fractions of bulk sediments and in picked monogeneric populations of calcareous nannofossils. The latter technique of measuring selected nannofossil populations using the ion probe circumvents possible contamination with secondary calcite. Avoiding such contamination is important for interpretation of the nannoplankton productivity record, since diagenetic processes can bias the productivity signal, as we demonstrate for Sr/Ca measurements in the fine (

Description: Semi-Lagrangian methods in air pollution models Geoscientific Model Development, 4, 511-541, 2011 Author(s): A. B. Hansen, J. Brandt, J. H. Christensen, and E. Kaas Various semi-Lagrangian methods are tested with respect to advection in air pollution modeling. The aim is to find a method fulfilling as many of the desirable properties by Rasch andWilliamson (1990) and Machenhauer et al. (2008) as possible. The focus in this study is on accuracy and local mass conservation. The methods tested are, first, classical semi-Lagrangian cubic interpolation, see e.g. Durran (1999), second, semi-Lagrangian cubic cascade interpolation, by Nair et al. (2002), third, semi-Lagrangian cubic interpolation with the modified interpolation weights, Locally Mass Conserving Semi-Lagrangian (LMCSL), by Kaas (2008), and last, semi-Lagrangian cubic interpolation with a locally mass conserving monotonic filter by Kaas and Nielsen (2010). Semi-Lagrangian (SL) interpolation is a classical method for atmospheric modeling, cascade interpolation is more efficient computationally, modified interpolation weights assure mass conservation and the locally mass conserving monotonic filter imposes monotonicity. All schemes are tested with advection alone or with advection and chemistry together under both typical rural and urban conditions using different temporal and spatial resolution. The methods are compared with a current state-of-the-art scheme, Accurate Space Derivatives (ASD), see Frohn et al. (2002), presently used at the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI) in Denmark. To enable a consistent comparison only non-divergent flow configurations are tested. The test cases are based either on the traditional slotted cylinder or the rotating cone, where the schemes' ability to model both steep gradients and slopes are challenged. The tests showed that the locally mass conserving monotonic filter improved the results significantly for some of the test cases, however, not for all. It was found that the semi-Lagrangian schemes, in almost every case, were not able to outperform the current ASD scheme used in DEHM with respect to accuracy.

Description: Reconstruction of southeast Tibetan Plateau summer cloud cover over the past two centuries using tree ring δ 18 O Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1825-1844, 2011 Author(s): C. Shi, V. Daux, C. Risi, S.-G. Hou, M. Stievenard, M. Pierre, Z. Li, and V. Masson-Delmotte A tree-ring δ 18 O chronology of Linzhi spruce, spanning from AD 1781 to 2005, was developed in Bomi, Southeast Tibetan Plateau (TP). During the period with instrumental data (1961–2005), this record is strongly correlated with regional summer cloud cover, which is supported by a precipitation δ 18 O simulation conducted with the isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model LMDZiso. A 225-yr regional cloud cover reconstruction was therefore achieved. The observed cloud cover increased in the 1980s and this increase is not unprecedented in the entire reconstruction. The reconstructed cloud cover appears smaller and more stable in the 20th century than previously. A late 19th century decrease in our reconstructed cloud cover is consistent with a decrease in the TP glacier accumulation recorded in ice cores. Our data reveal a strong anomaly in the 1810s, which coincides with volcanic eruption in 1809 and the 1815 Tambora volcanic eruption.

Description: GEOCLIM reloaded (v 1.0): a new coupled earth system model for past climate change Geoscientific Model Development, 4, 451-481, 2011 Author(s): S. Arndt, P. Regnier, Y. Goddéris, and Y. Donnadieu We present a new version of the coupled Earth system model GEOCLIM. The new release, GEOCLIM reloaded (v 1.0), links the existing atmosphere and weathering modules to a novel, temporally and spatially resolved model of the global ocean circulation, which provides a physical framework for a mechanistic description of the marine biogeochemical dynamics of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and oxygen. The ocean model is also coupled to a fully formulated, vertically resolved diagenetic model. GEOCLIM reloaded is thus a unique tool to investigate the short- and long-term feedbacks between climatic conditions, continental inputs, ocean biogeochemical dynamics and diagenesis. A complete and detailed description of the resulting Earth system model and its new features is first provided. The performance of GEOCLIM reloaded is then evaluated by comparing steady-state simulation under present-day conditions with a comprehensive set of oceanic data and existing global estimates of bio-element cycling in the pelagic and benthic compartments.

Description: Mesoscale variability of water masses in the Arabian Sea as revealed by ARGO floats Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1369-1402, 2011 Author(s): X. Carton and P. L'Hegaret By analysing ARGO float data over the last four years, some aspects of the mesoscale variability of water masses in the Arabian Sea are described. The Red Sea Water outflow is strong in the Southwestern Gulf of Aden, in particular when a cyclonic gyre predominates in this region. Salinities of 36.5 and temperatures of 16 °C are found there between 600 and 1000 m depths. The Red Sea Water is more dilute in the eastern part of the Gulf, and fragments of this water mass can be advected offshore across the gulf or towards its northern coast by the regional gyres. The Red Sea Water outflow is also detected along the northeastern coast of Socotra, and fragments of RSW are found between one and three degrees of latitude north of this island. In the whole Gulf of Aden, the correlation between the deep motions of the floats and the SSH measured by altimetry is strong, at regional scale. The finer scale details of the float trajectories are more often related to the anomalous water masses that they encounter. The Persian Gulf Water (PGW) is found in the float profiles near Ras ash Sharbatat (near 57° E, 18° N), again with 36.5 in salinity and about 18–19 °C in temperature. These observations were achieved in winter when the southwestward monsoon currents can advect PGW along the South Arabian coast. Fragments of PGW are found in the Arabian Sea between 18 and 20° N and 63 and 65° E, showing that this water mass can escape the Gulf of Oman southeastward, in particular during summer.

Description: The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 1: Description and evaluation Geoscientific Model Development, 4, 483-509, 2011 Author(s): S. J. Phipps, L. D. Rotstayn, H. B. Gordon, J. L. Roberts, A. C. Hirst, and W. F. Budd The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model is a coupled general circulation model, designed primarily for millennial-scale climate simulations and palaeoclimate research. Mk3L includes components which describe the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface, and combines computational efficiency with a stable and realistic control climatology. This paper describes the model physics and software, analyses the control climatology, and evaluates the ability of the model to simulate the modern climate. Mk3L incorporates a spectral atmospheric general circulation model, a z -coordinate ocean general circulation model, a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model and a land surface scheme with static vegetation. The source code is highly portable, and has no dependence upon proprietary software. The model distribution is freely available to the research community. A 1000-yr climate simulation can be completed in around one-and-a-half months on a typical desktop computer, with greater throughput being possible on high-performance computing facilities. Mk3L produces realistic simulations of the larger-scale features of the modern climate, although with some biases on the regional scale. The model also produces reasonable representations of the leading modes of internal climate variability in both the tropics and extratropics. The control state of the model exhibits a high degree of stability, with only a weak cooling trend on millennial timescales. Ongoing development work aims to improve the model climatology and transform Mk3L into a comprehensive earth system model.

Description: A coupled climate model simulation of Marine Isotope Stage 3 stadial climate Climate of the Past, 7, 649-670, 2011 Author(s): J. Brandefelt, E. Kjellström, J.-O. Näslund, G. Strandberg, A. H. L. Voelker, and B. Wohlfarth We present a coupled global climate model (CGCM) simulation, integrated for 1500 yr to quasi-equilibrium, of a stadial (cold period) within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3). The simulated Greenland stadial 12 (GS12; ~44 ka BP) annual global mean surface temperature ( T s ) is 5.5 °C lower than in the simulated recent past (RP) climate and 1.3 °C higher than in the simulated Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka BP) climate. The simulated GS12 is evaluated against proxy data and previous modelling studies of MIS3 stadial climate. We show that the simulated MIS 3 climate, and hence conclusions drawn regarding the dynamics of this climate, is highly model-dependent. The main findings are: (i) Proxy sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are higher than simulated SSTs in the central North Atlantic, in contrast to earlier simulations of MIS 3 stadial climate in which proxy SSTs were found to be lower than simulated SST. (ii) The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slows down by 50 % in the GS12 climate as compared to the RP climate. This slowdown is attained without freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic region, a method used in other studies to force an AMOC shutdown. (iii) El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are significantly modified by GS12 and LGM forcing and boundary conditions. (iv) Both the mean state and variability of the simulated GS12 is dependent on the equilibration. The annual global mean T s only changes by 0.10 °C from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation, indicating that the climate system may be close to equilibrium already after 500 yr of integration. However, significant regional differences between the last century of the simulation and model years 500–599 exist. Further, the difference between simulated and proxy SST is reduced from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation. The results of the ENSO variability analysis is also shown to depend on the equilibration.

Description: Volcanic and ENSO effects in China in simulations and reconstructions: Tambora eruption 1815 Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 2061-2088, 2011 Author(s): D. Zhang, R. Blender, and K. Fraedrich The co-operative effects of volcanic eruptions and ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) on the climate in China are analyzed in a millennium simulation for 800–2005 AD using the earth system model (ESM) ECHAM5/MPIOM/JSBACH subject to anthropogenic and natural forcings. The experiment includes two ensembles with weak (5 members) and strong (3 members) total solar irradiance variability. In the absence of El Niño and La Niña events, volcanoes, which are the dominant forcing in both ensembles, cause a dramatic cooling in West China (−2 °C) and a drought in East China during the year after the eruption. The recovery times for the volcano induced cooling vary globally between one and 12 yr; in China these values are mostly within 1–4 yr, but reach 10 yr in the Northeast. Without volcanoes, after El Niño events the summer precipitation is reduced in the North, while South China becomes wetter (indicated by the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI, for summers, JJA); La Niña events cause opposite effects. El Niño events in the winters after eruptions compensate the cooling in most regions of China, while La Niña events intensify the cooling (up to −2.5 °C). The simulated impact of the eruption of the Tambora in 1815, which caused the "year without summer" 1816 in Europe and North America and coldness and famines for several years in the Chinese province Yunnan, depends crucially on the ENSO state of the coupled model. A comparison with reconstructed El Niño events shows a moderate cool climate with wet (in the South) and extreme dry anomalies (in the North) persisting for several years.

Description: Using dissolved oxygen concentrations to determine mixed layer depths in the Bellingshausen Sea Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1505-1533, 2011 Author(s): K. Castro-Morales and J. Kaiser Concentrations of oxygen (O 2 ) and other dissolved gases in the oceanic mixed layer are often used to calculate air-sea gas exchange fluxes; for example, in the context of net and gross biological production estimates. The mixed layer depth ( z mix ) may be defined using criteria based on temperature or density differences to a reference depth near the ocean surface. However, temperature criteria fail in regions with strong haloclines such as the Southern Ocean where heat, freshwater and momentum fluxes interact to establish mixed layers. Moreover, the time scales of air-sea exchange differ for gases and heat, so that z mix defined using O 2 may be different to z mix defined using temperature or density. Here, we propose to define an O 2 -based mixed layer depth, z mix (O 2 ), as the depth where the relative difference between the O 2 concentration and a reference value at a depth equivalent to 10 dbar equals 0.5 %. This definition was established by numerical analysis of O 2 profiles in coastal areas of the Southern Ocean and corroborated by visual inspection. Comparisons of z mix (O 2 ) with z mix based on potential temperature differences, i.e. z mix (Δ θ = 0.2 °C) and z mix (Δ θ = 0.5 °C), and potential density differences, i.e. z mix (Δ σ θ = 0.03 kg m −3 ) and z mix (Δ σ θ = 0.125 kg m −3 ), showed that z mix (O 2 ) closely follows z mix (Δ σ θ = 0.03 kg m −3 ). Further comparisons with published z mix climatologies and z mix derived from World Ocean Atlas 2005 data were also performed. To establish z mix for use with biological production estimates in the absence of O 2 profiles, we suggest using z mix (Δ σ θ = 0.03 kg m −3 ), which is also the basis for the climatology by de Boyer Montégut et al. (2004).

Description: N/P ratio of nutrient uptake in the Baltic Sea Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1233-1259, 2011 Author(s): Z. Wan, L. Jonasson, and H. Bi The N/P ratio of nutrient uptake, i.e., the ratio of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) taken by primary producers, varies in different basins and in different seasons in the Baltic Sea. The N/P ratio of nutrient alteration fore and after spring blooms is not same as the N/P ratio of nutrient uptake, but the former can be regarded as an indicator for the later in the Baltic Sea. Based on the observed N/P ratio of nutrient alteration, we hypothesize a non-Redfield N/P ratio of nutrient uptake. The 3D-ecosystem model ERGOM coupled with the circulation model DMI-BSHcmod was used to test the hypothesis. When the Redfield ratio was used in the model, the DIP surplus after spring blooms was too high and resulted in the overly growth of cyanobacteria and too much nitrogen fixation. When the non-Redfield ratio was used in the model, the corresponding problem tended to disappear. In summary, we show that: (1) the Redfield N/P ratio of nutrient uptake in the Baltic Sea tends to be too high; (2) a lower N/P ratio 10:1 appears to work better than the Redfield value; and (3) the N/P ratio of nutrient uptake in the Baltic Proper during spring blooms is around 6:1.

Description: Spectrophotometric high-precision seawater pH determination for use in underway measuring systems Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1339-1367, 2011 Author(s): S. Aßmann, C. Frank, and A. Kötzinger Autonomous sensors are required for a comprehensive documentation of the changes in the marine carbon system and thus to differentiate between its natural variability and anthropogenic impacts. Spectrophotometric determination of pH – a key variable of the seawater carbon system – is particularly suited to achieve precise and drift-free measurements. However, available spectrophotometric instruments are not suitable for integration into automated measurement systems (e.g. FerryBox) since they do not meet the major requirements of reliability, stability, robustness and moderate cost. Here we report on the development and testing of a new indicator-based pH sensor that meets all of these requirements. This sensor can withstand the rough conditions during long-term deployments on ships of opportunities and is applicable on the open ocean as well as in coastal waters with complex background and highly variable conditions. The sensor uses a high resolution CCD spectrometer as detector connected via optical fibers to a custom-made cuvette designed to reduce the impact of air bubbles. The sample temperature can be precisely adjusted (25 °C ± 0.006 °C) using computer-controlled power supplies and Peltier elements thus avoiding the widely used water bath. The overall setup achieves a measurement frequency of 1 min −1 with a precision of ± 0.0007 pH units and an average offset of +0.0018 pH units to a pH reference during shipboard operation. Application of this sensor allows monitoring of seawater pH in autonomous underway systems, providing a key variable for characterization and understanding the marine carbon system.

Description: The Middle Miocene climate as modelled in an atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1935-1972, 2011 Author(s): M. Krapp and J. H. Jungclaus We present simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere-biosphere model for the Middle Miocene 15 million years ago. The Middle Miocene topography, which alters both large-scale ocean and atmospheric circulations, causes a global warming of 0.7 K compared to present-day. Higher than present-day CO 2 levels of 480 and 720 ppm cause a global warming of 2.8 and 4.9 K, thereby matching proxy-based Middle Miocene global temperature estimates of 3–6 K warming. Higher CO 2 levels and the associated water vapour feedback enhance the greenhouse effect and lead to a polar amplification of the warming. Although oceanic and atmospheric poleward heat transport are individually altered by 10–30 % in the mid and high latitudes, changes of the total heat transport account only for 4–8 %, pointing toward a compensation between oceanic and atmospheric heat transport. Our model reproduces a denser vegetation in agreement with fossil records. These results suggest that higher than present-day CO 2 levels are essential to drive the warm Middle Miocene climate.

Description: The early Eocene equable climate problem revisited Climate of the Past, 7, 603-633, 2011 Author(s): M. Huber and R. Caballero The early Eocene "equable climate problem", i.e. warm extratropical annual mean and above-freezing winter temperatures evidenced by proxy records, has remained as one of the great unsolved problems in paleoclimate. Recent progress in modeling and in paleoclimate proxy development provides an opportunity to revisit this problem to ascertain if the current generation of models can reproduce the past climate features without extensive modification. Here we have compiled early Eocene terrestrial temperature data and compared with climate model results using a consistent and rigorous methodology. We test the hypothesis that equable climates can be explained simply as a response to increased greenhouse gas forcing within the framework of the atmospheric component of the Community Climate System Model (version 3), a climate model in common use for predicting future climate change. We find that, with suitably large radiative forcing, the model and data are in general agreement for annual mean and cold month mean temperatures, and that the pattern of high latitude amplification recorded by proxies can be largely, but not perfectly, reproduced.

Description: Synchronicity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon variability and Northern Hemisphere climate change since the last deglaciation Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 2159-2192, 2011 Author(s): T. Shinozaki, M. Uchida, K. Minoura, M. Kondo, S. F. Rella, and Y. Shibata Understanding of the mechanism of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is required for the prediction of climate change in East Asia in a scenario of modern global warming. In this study, we present high-resolution climate records from peat sediments in Northeast Japan to reconstruct the EASM variability based on peat bulk cellulose δ 13 C since the last deglaciation. We used a 8.8 m long peat sediment core collected from the Tashiro Bog, Northeast Japan. Based on 42 14 C measurements, the core bottom reaches ~15.5 ka. δ 13 C, accumulation rate and accumulation flux time-series correlate well to Greenland ice core δ 18 O variability, suggesting that the climate record in Northeast Japan is linked to global climate changes. The δ 13 C record at Tashiro Bog and other paleo-EASM records at Northeast and Southern China consistently demonstrate that hydrological environments were spatially different in mid-high and mid-low latitude regions over the last 15.5 kyr. During global cooling (warming) periods, mid-high and mid-low latitude regions were characterized by wet (dry) and dry (wet) environments, respectively. We suggest that these climatic patterns are related to the migration of the EASM-related rain belt during global climate changes, as a consequence of variations in intensity and location of both the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (STH). The location of the rain belt largely influences the East Asian hydrological environment. Our δ 13 C time-series are characterized by a 1230 yr throughout the Holocene and a 680 yr periodicity during the early Holocene. The 1230 yr periodicity is in agreement with North Atlantic ice-rafted debris (IRD) events, suggesting a teleconnection between the Northeast Japan and the North Atlantic during the Holocene. In addition, it is the first evidence that the Bond events were recorded in terrestrial sediment in Japan. On the other hand, the 680 yr periodicity between 10.0 and 8.0 kyr is consistent with a prominent 649 yr solar activity cycle, suggesting that solar activity affected EASM precipitation during the Hypsithermal, when orbital-scale solar insolation was at a maximum in the Northern Hemisphere.

Description: Medusa-1.0: a new intermediate complexity plankton ecosystem model for the global domain Geoscientific Model Development, 4, 381-417, 2011 Author(s): A. Yool, E. E. Popova, and T. R. Anderson The ongoing, anthropogenically-driven changes to the global ocean are expected to have significant consequences for plankton ecosystems in the future. Because of the role that plankton play in the ocean's "biological pump", changes in abundance, distribution and productivity will likely have additional consequences for the wider carbon cycle. Just as in the terrestrial biosphere, marine ecosystems exhibit marked diversity in species and functional types of organisms. Predicting potential change in plankton ecosystems therefore requires the use of models that are suited to this diversity, but whose parameterisation also permits robust and realistic functional behaviour. In the past decade, advances in model sophistication have attempted to address diversity, but have been criticised for doing so inaccurately or ahead of a requisite understanding of underlying processes. Here we introduce MEDUSA-1.0 ( M odel of E cosystem D ynamics, nutrient U tilisation, S equestration and A cidification), a new "intermediate complexity" plankton ecosystem model that expands on traditional nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) models, and remains amenable to global-scale evaluation. MEDUSA-1.0 includes the biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen, silicon and iron, broadly structured into "small" and "large" plankton size classes, of which the "large" phytoplankton class is representative of a key phytoplankton group, the diatoms. A full description of MEDUSA-1.0's state variables, differential equations, functional forms and parameter values is included, with particular attention focused on the submodel describing the export of organic carbon from the surface to the deep ocean. MEDUSA-1.0 is used here in a multi-decadal hindcast simulation, and its biogeochemical performance evaluated at the global scale.

Description: PREP-CHEM-SRC – 1.0: a preprocessor of trace gas and aerosol emission fields for regional and global atmospheric chemistry models Geoscientific Model Development, 4, 419-433, 2011 Author(s): S. R. Freitas, K. M. Longo, M. F. Alonso, M. Pirre, V. Marecal, G. Grell, R. Stockler, R. F. Mello, and M. Sánchez Gácita The preprocessor PREP-CHEM-SRC presented in the paper is a comprehensive tool aiming at preparing emission fields of trace gases and aerosols for use in atmospheric-chemistry transport models. The considered emissions are from the most recent databases of urban/industrial, biogenic, biomass burning, volcanic, biofuel use and burning from agricultural waste sources. For biomass burning, emissions can be also estimated directly from satellite fire detections using a fire emission model included in the tool. The preprocessor provides emission fields interpolated onto the transport model grid. Several map projections can be chosen. The inclusion of these emissions in transport models is also presented. The preprocessor is coded using Fortran90 and C and is driven by a namelist allowing the user to choose the type of emissions and the databases.

Description: A pre-operational 3-D variational data assimilation system in the North/Baltic Sea Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1131-1160, 2011 Author(s): S. Y. Zhuang, W. W. Fu, and J. She This paper describes the implementation and evaluation of a pre-operational three dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system for the North/Baltic Sea. The univariate analysis for temperature and salinity is applied in a 3DVAR scheme in which the horizontal component of the background error covariance is modeled by an isotropic recursive filter (IRF) and the vertical component is represented by dominant Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) of the background error. Observations of temperature and salinity ( T / S ) profiles in the North/Baltic Sea are assimilated in the year of 2005. Effectiveness of the data assimilation scheme is assessed by comparison with the control run that no assimilation is done. The statistical analysis indicates that the model simulation is significantly improved with the 3DVAR scheme. On average, the root mean square error (RMSE) of temperature and salinity is reduced by 0.2 °C and 0.25 psu in the North/Baltic Sea. In addition, the bias of temperature and salinity is also decreased by 0.1 °C and 0.2 psu, respectively. Starting from an analyzed initial state, one month simulation without assimilation is carried out with the aim of examining the persistence of the initial impact. It is shown that the assimilated initial state can impact the model simulation for nearly two weeks. The influence on salinity is more pronounced than temperature.

Description: The construction of a Central Netherlands temperature Climate of the Past, 7, 527-542, 2011 Author(s): G. van der Schrier, A. van Ulden, and G. J. van Oldenborgh The Central Netherlands Temperature (CNT) is a monthly daily mean temperature series constructed from homogenized time series from the centre of the Netherlands. The purpose of this series is to offer a homogeneous time series representative of a larger area in order to study large-scale temperature changes. It will also facilitate a comparison with climate models, which resolve similar scales. From 1906 onwards, temperature measurements in the Netherlands have been sufficiently standardized to construct a high-quality series. Long time series have been constructed by merging nearby stations and using the overlap to calibrate the differences. These long time series and a few time series of only a few decades in length have been subjected to a homogeneity analysis in which significant breaks and artificial trends have been corrected. Many of the detected breaks correspond to changes in the observations that are documented in the station metadata. This version of the CNT, to which we attach the version number 1.1, is constructed as the unweighted average of four stations (De Bilt, Winterswijk/Hupsel, Oudenbosch/Gilze-Rijen and Gemert/Volkel) with the stations Eindhoven and Deelen added from 1951 and 1958 onwards, respectively. The global gridded datasets used for detecting and attributing climate change are based on raw observational data. Although some homogeneity adjustments are made, these are not based on knowledge of local circumstances but only on statistical evidence. Despite this handicap, and the fact that these datasets use grid boxes that are far larger then the area associated with that of the Central Netherlands Temperature, the temperature interpolated to the CNT region shows a warming trend that is broadly consistent with the CNT trend in all of these datasets. The actual trends differ from the CNT trend up to 30 %, which highlights the need to base future global gridded temperature datasets on homogenized time series.

Description: Winter and summer blocking variability in the North Atlantic region – evidence from long-term observational and proxy data from southwestern Greenland Climate of the Past, 7, 543-555, 2011 Author(s): N. Rimbu and G. Lohmann We investigate the interannual and decadal variability of the North Atlantic atmospheric blocking frequency and distribution in connection with long-term observational and proxy records from southwestern Greenland. It is shown that warm (cold) conditions in southwestern Greenland during winter are related with high (low) blocking activity in the Greenland-Scandinavian region. The pattern of winter temperature-blocking variability is more complex than the blocking pattern associated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We find, furthermore, that a North Atlantic blocking index is significantly correlated with seasonally resolved stable isotope records from Greenland ice cores. Both suggest a possible reconstruction of blocking variability in this region. During summer, high (low) blocking activity in the Euro-Atlantic region is associated with cold (warm) conditions in southwestern Greenland. We conclude that historical temperature records, as well as proxy data from Greenland, can be used to obtain information related to interannual and multidecadal variation of winter and summer blocking during past periods.

Description: Sensitivity of interglacial Greenland temperature and δ 18 O to orbital and CO 2 forcing: climate simulations and ice core data Climate of the Past Discussions, 7, 1585-1630, 2011 Author(s): V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Braconnot, G. Hoffmann, J. Jouzel, M. Kageyama, A. Landais, Q. Lejeune, C. Risi, L. Sime, J. Sjolte, D. Swingedouw, and B. Vinther The sensitivity of interglacial Greenland temperature to orbital and CO 2 forcing is investigated using the NorthGRIP ice core data and coupled ocean-atmosphere IPSL-CM4 model simulations. These simulations were conducted in response to different interglacial orbital configurations, and to increased CO 2 concentrations. These different forcings cause very distinct simulated seasonal and latitudinal temperature and water cycle changes, limiting the analogies between the last interglacial and future climate. However, the IPSL-CM4 model shows similar magnitudes of Arctic summer warming and climate feedbacks in response to 2 × CO 2 and orbital forcing of the last interglacial period (126 000 yr ago). The IPSL model produces a remarkably linear relationship between top of atmosphere incoming summer solar radiation and simulated changes in summer and annual mean central Greenland temperature. This contrasts with the stable isotope record from the Greenland ice cores, showing a multi-millennial lagged response to summer insolation. During the early part of interglacials, the observed lags may be explained by ice sheet-ocean feedbacks linked with changes in ice sheet elevation and the impact of meltwater on ocean circulation, as investigated with sensitivity studies. A quantitative comparison between ice core data and climate simulations requires to explore the stability of the stable isotope – temperature relationship. Atmospheric simulations including water stable isotopes have been conducted with the LMDZiso model under different boundary conditions. This set of simulations allows to calculate a temporal Greenland isotope-temperature slope (0.3–0.4 ‰ per °C) during warmer than present Arctic climates, in response to increased CO 2 , increased ocean temperature and orbital forcing. This temporal slope appears twice as small as the modern spatial gradient and is consistent with other ice core estimates. A preliminary comparison with other model results implies that other mechanisms could also play a role. This suggests that further simulations and detailed inter-model comparisons are also likely to be of benefit. Comparisons with Greenland ice core stable isotope data reveals that IPSL/LMDZiso simulations strongly underestimate the amplitude of the ice core signal during the last interglacial, which could reach +8–10 °C at fixed-elevation. While the model-data mismatch may result from missing positive feedbacks (e.g. vegetation), it could also be explained by a reduced elevation of the central Greenland ice sheet surface by 300–400 m.

Description: Numerical simulation and decomposition of kinetic energies in the Central Mediterranean Sea: insight on mesoscale circulation and energy conversion Ocean Science Discussions, 8, 1161-1214, 2011 Author(s): R. Sorgente, A. Olita, P. Oddo, L. Fazioli, and A. Ribotti The spatial and temporal variability of eddy and mean kinetic energy of the Central Mediterranean Sea has been investigated, from January 2008 to December 2010, by mean of a numerical simulation mainly to quantify the mesoscale dynamics and their relationships with physical forcing. In order to understand the energy redistribution processes, the baroclinic energy conversion has been analysed, suggesting hypotheses about the drivers of the mesoscale activity in this area. The ocean model used is based on the Princeton Ocean Model implemented at 1/32° horizontal resolution. Surface momentum and buoyancy fluxes are interactively computed by mean of standard bulk formulae using predicted model Sea Surface Temperature and atmospheric variables provided by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast operational analyses. At its lateral boundaries the model is one-way nested within the Mediterranean Forecasting System operational products. The model domain has been subdivided in four sub-regions: Sardinia channel and southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Sicily channel, eastern Tunisian shelf and Libyan Sea. Temporal evolution of eddy and mean kinetic energy has been analysed, on each of the four sub-regions composing the model domain, showing different behaviours. On annual scales and within the first 5 m depth, the eddy kinetic energy represents approximately the 60 % of the total kinetic energy over the whole domain, confirming the strong mesoscale nature of the surface current flows in this area. The analyses show that the model well reproduces the path and the temporal behaviour of the main known sub-basin circulation features. New mesoscale structures have been also identified, from numerical results and direct observations, for the first time as the Pantelleria Vortex and the Medina Gyre. The classical the kinetic energy decomposition (eddy and mean) allowed to depict and to quantify the stable and fluctuating parts of the circulation in the region, and to differentiate the four sub-regions as function of relative and absolute strength of the mesoscale activity. Furthermore the Baroclinic Energy Conversion term shows that in the Sardinia Channel the mesoscale activity, due to baroclinic instabilities, is significantly larger than in the other sub-regions, while a negative sign of the energy conversion, meaning a transfer of energy from the Eddy Kinetic Energy to the Eddy Available Potential Energy, has been recorded only for the surface layers of the Sicily Channel during summer.