ALBERT

Description: A Lagrangian advection scheme with shape matrix (LASM) for solving advection problems Geoscientific Model Development, 7, 2951-2968, 2014 Author(s): L. Dong, B. Wang, and L. Liu A new Lagrangian advection scheme with shape matrix (LASM) is proposed to take advantage of the extreme low numerical diffusion of the Lagrangian methods. The tracer is discretized into finite parcels, which move along the downstream trajectories. Different from other Lagrangian schemes, the parcel shape is simulated explicitly by a linear transformation matrix. By doing so, the aliasing error in the Lagrangian schemes is largely reduced without introducing substantial interparcel mixing in the pure advection stage, because the flow information will be respected when remapping tracer density onto the fixed model grids. An adaptive interparcel mixing algorithm is constructed to ensure the validity of the linear approximation of the parcel shape, where the mixing is only triggered when it is necessary and resembles the physical mixing. The total tracer mass on the parcels is conserved exactly. The new scheme is validated by using several test cases.

Description: Sensitivity of the Mediterranean sea level to atmospheric pressure and free surface elevation numerical formulation in NEMO Geoscientific Model Development, 7, 3001-3015, 2014 Author(s): P. Oddo, A. Bonaduce, N. Pinardi, and A. Guarnieri The sensitivity of the dynamics of the Mediterranean Sea to atmospheric pressure and free surface elevation formulation using NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) was evaluated. Four different experiments were carried out in the Mediterranean Sea using filtered or explicit free surface numerical schemes and accounting for the effect of atmospheric pressure in addition to wind and buoyancy fluxes. Model results were evaluated by coherency and power spectrum analysis with tide gauge data. We found that atmospheric pressure plays an important role for periods shorter than 100 days. The free surface formulation is important to obtain the correct ocean response for periods shorter than 30 days. At frequencies higher than 15 days −1 the Mediterranean basin's response to atmospheric pressure was not coherent and the performance of the model strongly depended on the specific area considered. A large-amplitude seasonal oscillation observed in the experiments using a filtered free surface was not evident in the corresponding explicit free surface formulation case, which was due to a phase shift between mass fluxes in the Gibraltar Strait and at the surface. The configuration with time splitting and atmospheric pressure always performed best; the differences were enhanced at very high frequencies.

Description: Gaseous chemistry and aerosol mechanism developments for version 3.5.1 of the online regional model, WRF-Chem Geoscientific Model Development, 7, 2557-2579, 2014 Author(s): S. Archer-Nicholls, D. Lowe, S. Utembe, J. Allan, R. A. Zaveri, J. D. Fast, Ø. Hodnebrog, H. Denier van der Gon, and G. McFiggans We have made a number of developments to the Weather, Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), with the aim of improving model prediction of trace atmospheric gas-phase chemical and aerosol composition, and of interactions between air quality and weather. A reduced form of the Common Reactive Intermediates gas-phase chemical mechanism (CRIv2-R5) has been added, using the Kinetic Pre-Processor (KPP) interface, to enable more explicit simulation of VOC degradation. N 2 O 5 heterogeneous chemistry has been added to the existing sectional MOSAIC aerosol module, and coupled to both the CRIv2-R5 and existing CBM-Z gas-phase schemes. Modifications have also been made to the sea-spray aerosol emission representation, allowing the inclusion of primary organic material in sea-spray aerosol. We have worked on the European domain, with a particular focus on making the model suitable for the study of nighttime chemistry and oxidation by the nitrate radical in the UK atmosphere. Driven by appropriate emissions, wind fields and chemical boundary conditions, implementation of the different developments are illustrated, using a modified version of WRF-Chem 3.4.1, in order to demonstrate the impact that these changes have in the Northwest European domain. These developments are publicly available in WRF-Chem from version 3.5.1 onwards.

Description: A catalog of high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859 Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2867-2882, 2014 Author(s): P. Stucki, S. Brönnimann, O. Martius, C. Welker, M. Imhof, N. von Wattenwyl, and N. Philipp In recent decades, extremely hazardous windstorms have caused enormous losses to buildings, infrastructure and forests in Switzerland. This has increased societal and scientific interest in the intensity and frequency of historical high-impact storms. However, high-resolution wind data and damage statistics mostly span recent decades only. For this study, we collected quantitative (e.g., volumes of windfall timber, losses relating to buildings) and descriptive (e.g., forestry or insurance reports) information on the impact of historical windstorms. To define windstorm severity, normalized and declustered quantitative data were processed by extreme value statistics. Descriptive information was classified using a conceptual guideline. Validation with independent damage information, as well as comparison with wind measurements and a reanalysis, indicates that the most hazardous winter storms are captured, while too few moderate windstorms are detected. Strong storms in the wind measurements and reanalysis are thus added to the catalog. The final catalog encompasses approximately 240 high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859. It features three robust severity classes and contains eight extreme windstorms. Evidence of high winter storm activity in the early and late 20th century compared to the mid-20th century in both damage and wind data indicates a co-variability of hazard and related damage on decadal timescales.

Description: A GIS-based model to estimate flood consequences and the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in urban areas Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2847-2865, 2014 Author(s): R. Albano, A. Sole, J. Adamowski, and L. Mancusi Efficient decision-making regarding flood risk reduction has become a priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries. Risk analysis methods and techniques are a useful tool for evaluating costs and benefits of possible interventions. Within this context, a methodology to estimate flood consequences was developed in this paper that is based on GIS, and integrated with a model that estimates the degree of accessibility and operability of strategic emergency response structures in an urban area. The majority of the currently available approaches do not properly analyse road network connections and dependencies within systems, and as such a loss of roads could cause significant damages and problems to emergency services in cases of flooding. The proposed model is unique in that it provides a maximum-impact estimation of flood consequences on the basis of the operability of the strategic emergency structures in an urban area, their accessibility, and connection within the urban system of a city (i.e. connection between aid centres and buildings at risk), in the emergency phase. The results of a case study in the Puglia region in southern Italy are described to illustrate the practical applications of this newly proposed approach. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it allows for defining a hierarchy between different infrastructure in the urban area through the identification of particular components whose operation and efficiency are critical for emergency management. This information can be used by decision-makers to prioritize risk reduction interventions in flood emergencies in urban areas, given limited financial resources.

Description: Wind waves in the Black Sea: results of a hindcast study Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 2883-2897, 2014 Author(s): V. S. Arkhipkin, F. N. Gippius, K. P. Koltermann, and G. V. Surkova In this study we describe the wind wave fields in the Black Sea. The general aims of the work were the estimation of statistical wave parameters and the assessment of interannual and seasonal wave parameter variability. The domain of this study was the entire Black Sea. Wave parameters were calculated by means of the SWAN wave model on a 5 × 5 km rectangular grid. Initial conditions (wind speed and direction) for the period between 1949 and 2010 were derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. According to our calculations the average significant wave height on the Black Sea does not exceed 0.7 m. Areas of most significant heavy sea are the southwestern and the northeastern parts of the sea as expressed in the spatial distribution of significant wave heights, wave lengths and periods. Besides, long-term annual variations of wave parameters were estimated. Thus, linear trends of the annual total duration of storms and of their quantity are nearly stable over the hindcast period. However, an intensification of storm activity is observed in the 1960s–1970s.

Description: A strategy for GIS-based 3-D slope stability modelling over large areas Geoscientific Model Development, 7, 2969-2982, 2014 Author(s): M. Mergili, I. Marchesini, M. Alvioli, M. Metz, B. Schneider-Muntau, M. Rossi, and F. Guzzetti GIS-based deterministic models may be used for landslide susceptibility mapping over large areas. However, such efforts require specific strategies to (i) keep computing time at an acceptable level, and (ii) parameterize the geotechnical data. We test and optimize the performance of the GIS-based, 3-D slope stability model r.slope.stability in terms of computing time and model results. The model was developed as a C- and Python-based raster module of the open source software GRASS GIS and considers the 3-D geometry of the sliding surface. It calculates the factor of safety (FoS) and the probability of slope failure ( P f ) for a number of randomly selected potential slip surfaces, ellipsoidal or truncated in shape. Model input consists of a digital elevation model (DEM), ranges of geotechnical parameter values derived from laboratory tests, and a range of possible soil depths estimated in the field. Probability density functions are exploited to assign P f to each ellipsoid. The model calculates for each pixel multiple values of FoS and P f corresponding to different sliding surfaces. The minimum value of FoS and the maximum value of P f for each pixel give an estimate of the landslide susceptibility in the study area. Optionally, r.slope.stability is able to split the study area into a defined number of tiles, allowing parallel processing of the model on the given area. Focusing on shallow landslides, we show how multi-core processing makes it possible to reduce computing times by a factor larger than 20 in the study area. We further demonstrate how the number of random slip surfaces and the sampling of parameters influence the average value of P f and the capacity of r.slope.stability to predict the observed patterns of shallow landslides in the 89.5 km 2 Collazzone area in Umbria, central Italy.

Description: Factors affecting flood insurance purchase in residential properties in Johor, Malaysia Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3297-3310, 2014 Author(s): U. G. Aliagha, T. E. Jin, W. W. Choong, M. Nadzri Jaafar, and H. M. Ali High-impact floods have become a virtually annual experience in Malaysia, yet flood insurance has remained a grossly neglected part of comprehensive integrated flood risk management. Using discriminant analysis, this study seeks to identify the demand-side variables that best predict flood insurance purchase and risk aversion between two groups of residential homeowners in three districts of Johor State, Malaysia: those who purchased flood insurance and those who did not. Our results revealed an overall 34% purchase rate, with Kota Tinggi district having the highest (44%) and thus the highest degree of flood risk aversion. The Wilks' lambda F test for equality of group means, standardised discriminant function coefficients, structure correlation, and canonical correlation has clearly shown that there are strong significant attribute differences between the two groups of homeowners, based on the measures of objective flood risk exposure, subjective risk perception, and socio-economic cum demographic variables. However, the measures of subjective risk perception were found to be more predictive of flood insurance purchase and flood risk aversion.

Description: Tropical troposphere to stratosphere transport of carbon monoxide and long-lived trace species in the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) Geoscientific Model Development, 7, 2895-2916, 2014 Author(s): R. Pommrich, R. Müller, J.-U. Grooß, P. Konopka, F. Ploeger, B. Vogel, M. Tao, C. M. Hoppe, G. Günther, N. Spelten, L. Hoffmann, H.-C. Pumphrey, S. Viciani, F. D'Amato, C. M. Volk, P. Hoor, H. Schlager, and M. Riese Variations in the mixing ratio of trace gases of tropospheric origin entering the stratosphere in the tropics are of interest for assessing both troposphere to stratosphere transport fluxes in the tropics and the impact of these transport fluxes on the composition of the tropical lower stratosphere. Anomaly patterns of carbon monoxide (CO) and long-lived tracers in the lower tropical stratosphere allow conclusions about the rate and the variability of tropical upwelling to be drawn. Here, we present a simplified chemistry scheme for the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) for the simulation, at comparatively low numerical cost, of CO, ozone, and long-lived trace substances (CH 4 , N 2 O, CCl 3 F (CFC-11), CCl 2 F 2 (CFC-12), and CO 2 ) in the lower tropical stratosphere. For the long-lived trace substances, the boundary conditions at the surface are prescribed based on ground-based measurements in the lowest model level. The boundary condition for CO in the lower troposphere (below about 4 km) is deduced from MOPITT measurements. Due to the lack of a specific representation of mixing and convective uplift in the troposphere in this model version, enhanced CO values, in particular those resulting from convective outflow are underestimated. However, in the tropical tropopause layer and the lower tropical stratosphere, there is relatively good agreement of simulated CO with in situ measurements (with the exception of the TROCCINOX campaign, where CO in the simulation is biased low ≈10–15 ppbv). Further, the model results (and therefore also the ERA-Interim winds, on which the transport in the model is based) are of sufficient quality to describe large scale anomaly patterns of CO in the lower stratosphere. In particular, the zonally averaged tropical CO anomaly patterns (the so called "tape recorder" patterns) simulated by this model version of CLaMS are in good agreement with observations, although the simulations show a too rapid upwelling compared to observations as a consequence of the overestimated vertical velocities in the ERA-Interim reanalysis data set. Moreover, the simulated tropical anomaly patterns of N 2 O are in good agreement with observations. In the simulations, anomaly patterns of CH 4 and CFC-11 were found to be very similar to those of N 2 O; for all long-lived tracers, positive anomalies are simulated because of the enhanced tropical upwelling in the easterly shear phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation.

Description: Moraine-dammed lake failures in Patagonia and assessment of outburst susceptibility in the Baker Basin Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 14, 3243-3259, 2014 Author(s): P. Iribarren Anacona, K.P. Norton, and A. Mackintosh Glacier retreat since the Little Ice Age has resulted in the development or expansion of hundreds of glacial lakes in Patagonia. Some of these lakes have produced large (≥ 10 6 m 3 ) Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) damaging inhabited areas. GLOF hazard studies in Patagonia have been mainly based on the analysis of short-term series (≤ 50 years) of flood data and until now no attempt has been made to identify the relative susceptibility of lakes to failure. Power schemes and associated infrastructure are planned for Patagonian basins that have historically been affected by GLOFs, and we now require a thorough understanding of the characteristics of dangerous lakes in order to assist with hazard assessment and planning. In this paper, the conditioning factors of 16 outbursts from moraine-dammed lakes in Patagonia were analysed. These data were used to develop a classification scheme designed to assess outburst susceptibility, based on image classification techniques, flow routine algorithms and the Analytical Hierarchy Process. This scheme was applied to the Baker Basin, Chile, where at least seven moraine-dammed lakes have failed in historic time. We identified 386 moraine-dammed lakes in the Baker Basin of which 28 were classified with high or very high outburst susceptibility. Commonly, lakes with high outburst susceptibility are in contact with glaciers and have moderate (〉 8°) to steep (〉 15°) dam outlet slopes, akin to failed lakes in Patagonia. The proposed classification scheme is suitable for first-order GLOF hazard assessments in this region. However, rapidly changing glaciers in Patagonia make detailed analysis and monitoring of hazardous lakes and glaciated areas upstream from inhabited areas or critical infrastructure necessary, in order to better prepare for hazards emerging from an evolving cryosphere.