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  • 1
    Call number: M 92.0634
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    ISBN: 9054100605
    Language: English
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 2
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Bonn : Helmholtz Association ; 2006-
    Associated volumes
    Call number: 3/S 07.0034(2016)
    In: Annual report
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 51 Seiten
    ISSN: 1865-6439 , 1865-6447
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Annual report ... / Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres
    Language: English
    Location: Reading room
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 3
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    [Edgecumbe, N.Z.] : A. Muller
    Call number: M 15.89146
    Description / Table of Contents: An account of the results of the 2 March 1987 earthquake in the eastern Bay of Plenty and the aftermath's effects on the people and places on the Rangitaiki Plains
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 223 S., , Ill.
    Language: English
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 4
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    London : Penguin Books
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    ISBN: 9780141985206
    Language: English
    Branch Library: IASS Library
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  • 5
    Monograph non-lending collection
    Monograph non-lending collection
    Leiden : Nijhoff ; 1.2009 -
    Call number: IASS 17.92082
    Type of Medium: Monograph non-lending collection
    ISSN: 1876-8814
    Language: English
    Branch Library: IASS Library
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  • 6
    Call number: M 18.91571
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 134 Seiten
    ISSN: 2363-7196
    Series Statement: Global tectonics and metallogeny : special issue Vol. 10/2-4
    Classification: A.3.4.
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Global tectonics and metallogeny
    Language: English
    Location: Upper compact magazine
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 7
    Call number: Z 06.0500
    Type of Medium: Journal available for loan
    Pages: 30 cm
    ISSN: 1824-7741
    Former Title: Vorgänger Geologisch-paläontologische Mitteilungen, Innsbruck
    Language: German , English
    Note: Ersch. unregelmäßig , Beiträge teilweise in Englisch
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 8
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Garmisch-Partenkirchen : Institut für atmosphärische Umweltforschung der Fraunhofer- Gesellschaft
    Call number: MOP 44829
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 25 S. , graph. Darst.
    Language: English
    Location: MOP - must be ordered
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 9
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    Leiden: Brill | ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2019-02-14
    Description: The Gnassingbé clan has ruled the country since 1967. The demand for political alternance, initiated by institutional and electoral reforms, constituted the major contentious issue between the government and the challengers of the Gnassingbé regime throughout the survey period. An alliance of opposition parties and civil society groups organized peaceful demonstrations in opposition to the regime, which were often violently suppressed. Civil society organizations and representatives of the Christian church supported the demands of the opposition. The legislative elections of 20 December 2018, boycotted by the major opposition parties, resulted in an easy victory of the ruling party. The local elections, crucial for democratization at the grass-roots, but postponed time and again since 1987, were again postponed in December 2018 sine die. The human rights record of the government has improved but remains poor. Despite undeniable improvements to the framework and appearance of the regime's key institutions during the review period, democracy remains far from complete. However, the international community, notably Togo’s African peers, the AU and ECOWAS, followed a ‘laissez-faire’ approach in the interests of regional stability and their national interests in dealing with Togo. Economic growth remained stable at about 5% per annum. Public investment in infrastructure (e.g. roads, harbour) and increases in agricultural productivity, notably of export crops, had been the key drivers of economic growth. However, growth remains vulnerable to external shocks and the climate and has not been inclusive. Positive growth was overshadowed by increasing inter-personal and regional inequality as well as an increase in extreme poverty. Moreover, money-laundering, illegal money transfers and trafficking grew alarmingly. The business climate improved considerably nevertheless.
    Description: Author’s extended and up-dated version of ‘BTI 2020 – Togo Country Report’ (forthcoming)
    Description: RÉSUMÉ: Le clan Gnassingbé dirige le pays depuis 1967. La demande d'alternance politique, initiée par des réformes institutionnelles et électorales, a constitué le principal différend entre le gouvernement et les rivaux du régime de Gnassingbé tout au long de la période d'enquête. Une alliance de partis d'opposition et de groupes de la société civile a organisé des manifestations pacifiques contre le régime, qui ont souvent été réprimées avec violence. Les organisations de la société civile et les représentants de l'église chrétienne ont soutenu les revendications de l'opposition. Les élections législatives du 20 décembre 2018, boycottées par les principaux partis de l'opposition, ont permis une victoire facile du parti au pouvoir. Les élections locales, cruciales pour la démocratisation à la base, mais reportées à plusieurs reprises depuis 1987, ont été à nouveau reportées en décembre 2018 sine die. Le bilan du gouvernement en matière de droits de l'homme s'est amélioré mais reste médiocre. Malgré des améliorations indéniables du cadre et de l’apparence des principales institutions du régime au cours de la période considérée, la démocratie est loin d’être achevée. Cependant, la communauté internationale, notamment ses homologues africains du Togo, l’UA et la CEDEAO, a adopté une approche de «laisser-faire» dans l’intérêt de la stabilité régionale et de leurs intérêts nationaux face au Togo. La croissance économique est restée stable à environ 5% par an. Les investissements publics dans les infrastructures (par exemple, les routes et les ports) et l’augmentation de la productivité agricole, notamment des cultures d’exportation, ont été les principaux moteurs de la croissance économique. Cependant, la croissance reste vulnérable aux chocs extérieurs et au climat et n’a pas été inclusive. La croissance positive a été éclipsée par l'augmentation des inégalités interpersonnelles et régionales ainsi que par l'augmentation de l'extrême pauvreté. En outre, le blanchiment d’argent, les transferts d’argent illégal et le trafic se sont multipliés de manière alarmante. Le climat des affaires s’est néanmoins considérablement amélioré. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ZUSAMMENFASSUNG: Der Gnassingbé-Clan hat das Land seit 1967 regiert. Die Forderungen nach institutionellen und Wahlrechtreformen sowie nach politischem Wandel bildeten während des Erhebungszeitraums das umstrittenste Thema zwischen der Regierung und den Herausforderern des Gnassingbé-Regimes. Ein Bündnis von Oppositionsparteien und zivilgesellschaftlichen Gruppen organisierte friedliche Demonstrationen gegen das Regime, die oft gewaltsam unterdrückt wurden. Zivilgesellschaftliche Organisationen und Vertreter der christlichen Kirche unterstützten die Forderungen der Opposition. Die Parlamentswahlen vom 20. Dezember 2018, die von den großen Oppositionsparteien boykottiert wurden, führten zu einem leichten Sieg der Regierungspartei. Die für die Demokratisierung an der Basis entscheidenden Kommunalwahlen, die seit 1987 immer wieder verschoben wurden, wurden im Dezember 2018 erneut auf unbestimmte Zeit verschoben. Die Menschenrechtsbilanz der Regierung hat sich verbessert, ist aber nach wie vor schlecht. Trotz unbestreitbarer Verbesserungen der Rahmenbedingungen und des Erscheinungsbildes der wichtigsten Institutionen des Regimes im Überprüfungszeitraum ist die Demokratisierung bei weitem nicht vollständig. Die internationale Gemeinschaft, insbesondere die afrikanischen peers des togosichen Präsidenten, die AU und die ECOWAS, verfolgten jedoch einen "Laissez-faire" -Ansatz im Interesse der regionalen Stabilität und ihrer nationalen Interessen im Umgang mit Togo. Das Wirtschaftswachstum blieb stabil bei etwa 5% pro Jahr. Öffentliche Investitionen in die Infrastruktur (z. B. Straßen, Häfen) und die Steigerung der landwirtschaftlichen Produktivität, insbesondere von Exportkulturen, waren die Hauptfaktoren des Wirtschaftswachstums. Das Wachstum bleibt jedoch anfällig für externe Schocks und das Wachstum war nicht inklusiv. Das positive Wachstum wurde durch die zunehmende Ungleichheit zwischen Personen und Regionen sowie durch die Zunahme extremer Armut überschattet. Darüber hinaus nahmen Geldwäsche, illegale Geldüberweisungen und Menschenhandel alarmierend zu. Das Geschäftsklima hat sich dennoch deutlich verbessert.
    Keywords: A14 ; F35 ; N97 ; O17 ; O55 ; Z13 ; ddc:330 ; Togo ; West Africa ; ECOWAS ; WAEMU ; Democratization ; Good Governance
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:bookPart
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2019-04-02
    Description: Abstract
    Description: This publication contains tabular summaries of the data management survey carried out at the Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, as well as the diagrams of individual questions shown in Radosavljevic et al. (2019).The online survey was conducted from August 27 to September 27, 2019. The survey design leaned on similar surveys carried out at German universities and research institutions (e.g. Paul-Stüve et al., 2015; Simukovic et al., 2013) The survey queried aspects of the complete data life cycle - from the planning stage to reuse in 37 questions: 16 single response (SR); where only one answer was possible, and 20 multiple response (MR) where multiple answers could be selected, and one free text question. Research staff at all career levels was the target audience for the survey. Invitations to participate in the completely anonymous online survey were sent out over the general GFZ lists. The survey was carried out with the Questback EFS Survey platform.226 attempts, out of 411, led to completed questionnaires corresponding to a 55% completion rate. Compared to the target audience at GFZ, the participation rate amounted to ca. 24%. However, less than 20% of employees classified as infrastructure support employees or bachelor’s and master’s students and student assistants completed the survey. Replies falling into these categories were grouped into “others” in the report as well as in the data presented here.Data summaries are given in two tab-separated tables corresponding to response counts or percentage for each question. These are grouped by department, role and employment length. Questions 5 and 34 were ranking questions and the corresponding responses in the percentages table represent arithmetic means of the replies for these questions – not percentages. The response counts for these question are presented in the “Counts” table. Free text replies are omitted from these results. In addition, the diagrams of individual questions are presented Radosavljevic et al. (2019) are also provided in png and pdf formats.
    Keywords: data management survey ; EARTH SCIENCE SERVICES 〉 DATA MANAGEMENT/DATA HANDLING
    Language: English
    Type: Dataset , Dataset
    Format: 1 Files
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2019-04-05
    Description: Abstract
    Description: This data set provides data from subduction zone earthquake experiments and analysis described in Rosenau et al. (2019). In the experiments analogue seismotectonic scale models of subduction zones characterized by two seismogenic asperities are used to study the interaction of asperities over multiple seismic cycles by means of static (Coulomb failure) stress transfer. Various asperity geometries (lateral/along-strike of the subduction zone distance and vertical/across-strike of the subduction zone offset) are tested on their effect on recurrence pattern of simulated great (M8+) earthquakes.The results demonstrate the role of stress coupling in the synchronization of asperities leading to multi-asperity M9+ events in nature. The data set contains time series of experimental surface velocities from which analogue earthquakes are detected and classified into synchronized events and solo events. The latter are subcategorized into main events and aftershocks and into normal and thrust events. An analogue earthquake catalogue lists all categorized events of the 12 experiments used for statistical analysis. Moreover, results from elastic dislocation modelling aimed ate quantifying the stress coupling between the asperities for the various geometries are summarized. Basic statistics of classified events (e.g. percentage of categorized events, coefficient of variation in size and recurrence time etc.) are documented. Matlab scripts are provided to visualize the data as in the paper.
    Keywords: multi-scale laboratories ; Megathrust earthquakes ; computational statistics ; analogue models of geologic processes ; analogue modelling results ; software tools ; EPOS ; European Plate Observing System ; EARTH SCIENCE SERVICES 〉 MODELS 〉 GEOLOGIC/TECTONIC/PALEOCLIMATE MODELS ; EARTH SCIENCE 〉 SOLID EARTH 〉 TECTONICS 〉 PLATE TECTONICS ; EARTH SCIENCE 〉 SOLID EARTH 〉 TECTONICS 〉 PLATE TECTONICS 〉 PLATE BOUNDARIES ; tectonic setting 〉 plate margin setting 〉 forearc setting ; tectonic setting 〉 plate margin setting 〉 subduction zone setting ; deformation ; tectonic process 〉 subduction ; megathrust ; Silicon/Silly putty/PDMS ; Sugar ; Rubber ; Earthquake simulator ; Digital Image Correlation (DIC) / Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) 〉 StrainMaster (La Vision GmbH) ; Time lapse camera
    Language: English
    Type: Dataset , Dataset
    Format: 3 Files
    Format: application/octet-stream
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2019-04-06
    Description: Abstract
    Description: This dataset contains digital image correlation (DIC) data of eight seismotectonic analogue experiments that were performed at the Laboratory of Experimental Tectonics (LET), Univ. Rome Tre, to investigate the effect of subduction interface roughness on the seismogenic behaviour of the megathrust. The study has been done in the framework of the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement 642029 – ITN CREEP. Together with DIC data we also provide analogue earthquake characteristics and Matlab scripts for visualization.Here we provide Digital Image Correlation data for eight experiments that last about 20 minutes (i.e., including tens of seismic cycles), of which four experiments include a smooth subduction interface and four a rough subduction interface. The DIC analysis provides a velocity field between two consecutive frames, measured at the surface of the model. Details about the nature and geometry of this interface, as well as the experimental procedure, model set-up and materials can be found in van Rijsingen et al. (2019), paragraph 2 and supporting information.A more detailed description of the data that we provide, the methods and the matlab scripts used for visualisation can be found in the data description file. An overview of the dataset can be found in the list of files.
    Keywords: multi-scale laboratories ; EPOS ; Analog modelling results ; analogue models of geologic processes ; EARTH SCIENCE 〉 SOLID EARTH 〉 TECTONICS 〉 PLATE TECTONICS 〉 FAULT MOVEMENT ; EARTH SCIENCE 〉 SOLID EARTH 〉 TECTONICS 〉 EARTHQUAKES ; tectonic setting 〉 plate margin setting ; tectonic setting 〉 plate margin setting 〉 subduction zone setting ; tectonic process 〉 subduction ; tectonic process ; megathrust ; thrust fault ; tectonic and structural features ; Gelatine 〉 Pig skin ; Gelatine ; Wedge simulator ; Earthquake simulator ; Digital Image Correlation (DIC) / Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) 〉 PIVlab ; Matlab (Mathworks) ; Videocamera ; Surface image
    Language: English
    Type: Dataset , Dataset
    Format: 3 Files
    Format: application/octet-stream
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2019-05-10
    Description: Now in its third compliance period, we can look back at more than 12 years of existence of the emissions trading system (ETS) in the European Union. The focus of this paper is to review the empirical literature on price formation in the EU ETS. As a reoccurring concept, we draw on a simple theoretical model of price formation that we subsequently extend to accommodate three different strands of literature. First, we gather evidence based on empirical papers which look at the role of fundamental price drivers. Second, we review the event study literature, where political and regulatory uncertainty is the main topic. Third, we devote a major part to finance literature in this market. In every section, we pay special attention to the challenges that arise when empirically modeling allowance prices in this complex market. We emphasize that there is a need for more evidence and possibly alternative approaches due to the complex interplay of compliance and finance trading motives. As a result, the findings of this review provide important lessons about price formation in the EU ETS, which can also inform the design of such programs in other countries.
    Keywords: Q48 ; Q50 ; ddc:330 ; Emission Trading ; EU ETS ; Carbon Pricing
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 14
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Goethe University Frankfurt, SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe
    Publication Date: 2019-05-10
    Description: Do household in ation expectations affect consumption-savings decisions? We link survey data on quantitative in ation expectations to administrative data on income and wealth. We document that households with higher in ation expectations save less. Estimating panel data models with year and household fixed effects, we find that a one percentage point increase in a household's in ation expectation over time is associated with a 250-400 euro reduction in the household's change in net worth per year on average. We also document that households with higher in ation expectations are more likely to acquire a car and acquire higher-value cars. In addition, we provide a quantitative model of household-level in ation expectations.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 15
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    Kiel, Hamburg: ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Publication Date: 2019-05-10
    Description: This article introduces a quantitative measure of trade policy space at the national level, and investigates empirically whether it influences foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to countries. The empirical analysis covers an unbalanced panel dataset of 158 countries (both developed and developing countries), over the period 1995-2015, and uses the two-step system Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) approach. Results suggest that the impact of trade policy space on FDI inflows is positive and increases as countries enjoy greater trade policy space. Furthermore, advanced economies tend to experience a higher positive impact of trade policy space on FDI inflows than less advanced economies. Overall, trade policy space matters significantly for countries' FDI inflows.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Trade policy space ; FDI inflows
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 16
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    Oldenburg: University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2019-05-10
    Description: We decompose the persistent satisfaction gap between East and West Germany into effects of objective circumstances and subjective mentality, the latter presumed to be a legacy of communist socialization. Using the methodology proposed by Senik (2014) in a cross-national context, we capture circumstances by the region of residence (East vs. West) and mentality by whether an individual is a "native" of the respective region or has moved ("migrated") to that region. We differentiate our analysis by years since German unification, birth cohorts, and the length of time a "migrant" has lived in her current region of residence. Using about 420,000 observations, 1990-2016, we find 54.4 percent of the satisfaction gap to be attributable to mentality. The mentality gap in the overall sample is driven by birth cohorts socialized under communism, the contribution of mentality to the satisfaction gap being 81.2 percent in this cohort group. While the circumstance-related gap diminished steadily over time, the mentality-related gap changed non-monotonically, reflecting different happiness responses of East and West Germans to politico-economic shocks. Exploiting the panel nature of our data, we find the mentality-related gap to show little indication of within-person changes over time.
    Keywords: I31 ; P36 ; P16 ; D63 ; ddc:330 ; Germany ; happiness ; life satisfaction ; unification ; mentality ; communism
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2019-05-10
    Description: This paper analyzes the relationship between education and health outcomes using a natural experiment in Turkey. The compulsory schooling increased from 5 to 8 years in 1997. This increase was accompanied by a massive construction of classrooms and recruitment of teachers in a differential rate across regions. As in previous studies, we confirm that the 1997 reform substantially increased education in Turkey. Using the number of new middle school class openings per 1000 children as an intensity measure for the 1997 reform, we find that, on average, one additional middle school class increases the probability of completion of 8 years or more of schooling by about 7.1 percentage points. We use this exogenous increase in the educational attainment to investigate the impact of education on body mass index, obesity, smoking behavior, and self-rated health, as well as the effect of maternal education on the infant’s well-being. Using ordinary least squares, we find that there is a statistically significant favorable effect of education on health outcomes and behavior. However, this relationship becomes insignificant when we account for the endogeneity of education and health by instrumenting education with exogenous variations generated by the 1997 reform and the accompanying middle school class openings. The insignificance of the health effect may be due to lack of statistical power in our data, or to the fact that this policy affects only relatively low levels of schooling and the health effects of education need to be examined at higher levels of schooling.
    Keywords: C26 ; I12 ; I21 ; I28 ; ddc:330 ; health ; education ; compulsory schooling ; body mass index ; obesity ; smoking ; selfrated health ; maternal education ; infant’s well-being ; Turkey
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 18
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    Mannheim: ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
    Publication Date: 2019-05-08
    Description: Hidden Champions (HCs) are firms unknown to the wider public, but global leaders in the niche markets they serve. This paper looks at distinctive features of these firms, focusing on their dynamic capabilities. Employing a unique data base on German firms, we identify a representative sample of German HCs. Based on a matching technique, we examine differences to other firms in terms of the firms' processes, position, and path. We find that HCs' competitive strategy rests on technology leadership and customisation. HCs are more open in their knowledge management, but without compromising control over the new product development process. HCs do not invest more into innovation, but achieve higher innovation success. The higher efficiency can be linked to their superior technological capabilities and to higher investment in human capital and HR management practices that mobilise the creative potential of their employees.
    Keywords: L21 ; L25 ; M10 ; M21 ; O31 ; O32 ; ddc:330 ; Hidden Champions ; Germany ; Competitive Strategy ; Knowledge Management ; Innovation ; Dynamic Firm Capabilities
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 19
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    Mannheim: ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
    Publication Date: 2019-05-08
    Description: Circular economy (CE) describes an economic concept that aims at saving resources by minimizing the use of material and energy over the entire life-cycle or products, including repair, reuse and recycling. CE innovations help to realize the goals of a sustainable development and target both the environmental, economic and social dimensions of sustainability. This paper looks at the economic and social dimensions by investigating the performance and employment effects of CE innovations at the firm level. CE innovations such as the reduction of energy and material consumption or the recycling of waste, water or material may lead to cost savings which in turn can increase the competitiveness of the firm and raise demand for a firm's products. Our econometric analysis uses data of two waves of the German part of the Community Innovation Survey (CIS). The performance effects of CE innovations measured by the financial standing of a firm and by turnover growth tend to be positive. The results of quantile regressions show that this is also the case for employment effects.
    Keywords: C21 ; Q01 ; Q55 ; ddc:330 ; circular economy ; Community Innovation Survey ; eco-innovation ; quantile regression
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2019-05-08
    Description: This paper studies the effects and causal links between the shadow economy and the unemployment rate using a dynamic simultaneous-equation panel data model for 38 developing and 40 developed countries over the 2000−2015 period. The analysis suggests that there is a unidirectional and negative causality running from the unemployment rate to the shadow economy in the developing countries. However, in the developed countries, there is a bidirectional and negative causal relationship between the shadow economy and unemployment rate. The sensitivity of the results makes the authors realize that institutional quality interacts strongly with the relationship between the shadow economy and the unemployment rate. In countries with a good institutional quality, the unemployment rate is associated with a weak informal economy, whereas in countries with low institutional quality, it strongly drives the informal economy.
    Keywords: O17 ; E26 ; J60 ; ddc:330 ; shadow economy ; unemployment rate ; institutional quality ; dynamic simultaneous-equation panel data models
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 21
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    Mannheim: ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
    Publication Date: 2019-05-08
    Description: Fiscal policymakers are expected to conduct countercyclical policies to mitigate cyclical fluctuations of output, but the assessment of cyclical conditions in real time is subject to considerable uncertainty. They face two types of risk: (i) launching discretionary measures to support or dampen aggregate demand when no measures are required (type I error), or (ii) not launching any stabilising measures when this is warranted by cyclical conditions (type II error). A rational policymaker could manage these risks by correcting real-time estimates for past errors, notably the apparent tendency to underestimate good times when they occur. In practice, however, fiscal policy has been largely pro-cyclical or a-cyclical at best. Using statistical decision theory, we calculate thresholds for realtime output gap estimates beyond which governments could launch stabilisation measures, so as to reduce the risk of running pro-cyclical policies. We consider different preferences for avoiding type I or type II errors, and for addressing upside and downside growth risks. We show that the tendency to run pro-cyclical fiscal policy and the ensuing deficit bias can reflect two factors: a preference for activism that is, attaching a lower cost to type I errors, combined with an inclination to be gloomy about cyclical conditions.
    Keywords: E62 ; E63 ; H68 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal stabilisation ; pro-cyclical fiscal policy ; risk management ; real-time output gap estimates
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 22
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    Mannheim: ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
    Publication Date: 2019-05-08
    Description: Because China has become one of the largest applicants of PCT patents, it is of interest to compare the quality of Chinese and non-Chinese applications. We extend a quality index based on internationally comparable citation data from international search reports (ISR) to consider foreign, domestic, and self citations. Whereas foreign citations show that Chinese PCT patent applications reach only a third of the non-Chinese quality benchmark, the extension towards domestic and self citations suggests a higher quality level that converges to or even surpasses the benchmark. We investigate these differences based on firm-level regressions and find that in China, only foreign citations, but not domestic and self citations, have a significant and positive relation to R&D stocks. Using Germany as a representative country without policy support for patenting, we show that all three citations types may be used as economic indicators if policy distortion is not a concern. Our results show that domestic and self citations suffer from an upward bias in China and should be employed with caution if they are to be interpreted as a measure of patent quality.
    Keywords: O34 ; O3 ; ddc:330 ; patent quality ; cross-country comparison ; China
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-05-08
    Description: A hedge fund's capital structure is fragile because uninformed fund investors are highly loss sensitive and easily withdraw capital in response to bad news. Hedge fund managers, sharing common investors and interacting with each other through market price, sensitively react to other funds' investment decisions. In this environment, panic-based market runs can arise not because of systematic risk but because of the fear of runs. The authors find that when the market regime changes from a normal state to a "bad" state (in which runs are possible), hedge funds reduce investment prior to runs. In addition, the market runs are more likely to occur in a market where hedge funds hold greater market exposure and uninformed traders have greater sensitivity to past price movement.
    Keywords: G01 ; G23 ; ddc:330 ; market sustainability ; market runs ; hedge funds ; limits of arbitrage ; financial crises ; synchronization risk
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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    Mannheim: ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
    Publication Date: 2019-05-08
    Description: Is a firm's ability to export an important determinant of environmental performance? To answer this question, we construct a unique micro dataset that merged two rich firm-level datasets for China for 2007. When combining this new dataset with well-received empirical specifications, we found that both export status and export intensity are associated with lower sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions intensity. In addition to the traditional OLS estimation, we verified this association by using the propensity score matching method. Our findings show that the baseline result still holds. In short, exporters are more environmentally friendly than non-exporters,which is in line with previous evidence reported for developed economies. We further discuss mechanisms that explain the observed pattern and show that exporters realize higher abatement efforts compared to non-exporters. This study complements the literature in terms of providing China's micro evidence on SO2 abatement efforts. It also serves as a first step toward a better understanding of the impact of trade on the environment, especially in developing countries.
    Keywords: F18 ; Q53 ; Q56 ; ddc:330 ; Exporters and the environment ; firm heterogeneity ; SO2 emissions ; abatement
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    Göttingen: University of Göttingen, Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research (cege)
    Publication Date: 2019-05-08
    Description: In this paper, I propose a life cycle model of painkiller consumption that combines the theory of health deficit accumulation with the theory of addiction. Chronic pain is conceptualized as a persistent negative shock to lifetime utility that can be treated by pain relief medication. Individuals treated with opioid pain relievers (OPR) develop addiction, which increases their demand for opioids and reduces their welfare and life expectancy through side effects and potential overdose. I calibrate the model for a benchmark American and investigate the comparative dynamics of alternative drug characteristics, pain intensities, and ages of onsets of pain and their implications for welfare and life expectancy. Computational experiments are used to identify fully rational and imperfectly rational addiction behavior. Fully rational addicts quickly quit OPR use when new information about their addictive potential arrives. Imperfectly rational addicts further develop their addiction and switch to illicit opioid use. Likewise, a discontinued prescription helps fully rational addicts to quit quickly while it induces imperfectly rational individuals to take up heroin. I also discuss treatment of OPR addiction and the use of opioids in palliative care.
    Description: First Version: December 2018. This Version: May 2019.
    Keywords: D15 ; D91 ; I10 ; I12 ; ddc:330 ; pain ; pain relief ; addiction ; opioid epidemic ; health deficits ; life expectancy ; illicit drugs
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  • 26
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    Mannheim: ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
    Publication Date: 2019-05-08
    Description: Working from home (WfH) has become much more common since the early 2000s. We exploit the German Socio-Economic Panel between 1997 and 2014 to investigate how such a work arrangement affects labour market outcomes and life satisfaction. We find that childless employees work an extra hour per week of unpaid overtime and report higher satisfaction after taking up WfH. Among parents, WfH reduces the gender gap in working hours and monthly earnings, as contractual hours increase more among mothers. Hourly wages, however, increase with WfH take-up among fathers, but not among mothers unless they change employer. This points to poorer bargaining outcomes for women compared to men when staying with the same employer. Controlling for selection into paid employment due to changes in unobserved characteristics or preferences does not affect the magnitude of the effects.
    Keywords: J2 ; J31 ; O33 ; ddc:330 ; working from home ; working hours ; wages ; gender ; flexible work arrangements.
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 27
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    Essen: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2019-05-08
    Description: We show that current differences in trust levels within former Soviet Union countries can be traced back to the system of forced prison labor during Stalin's rule, which was marked by high incarceration rates, repression, and harsh punishments. We argue that those exposed to forced labor camps (gulags) became less trusting and transferred this social norm to their descendants. Combining contemporary individual-level survey data with historical information on the location of forced labor camps, we find that individuals who live near former gulags have low levels of social and institutional trust. Our results are robust to a battery of sensitivity checks, which suggests that the relationship we document is causal. We outline several causal mechanisms and test whether the social norm of mistrust near gulags developed because of political repression or due to fear that inmates bring criminality. As such, we provide novel evidence on the channels through which history matters for current socio-economic outcomes today.
    Keywords: D02 ; H10 ; N94 ; Z13 ; ddc:330 ; social trust ; institutional trust ; trustworthiness ; forced labor ; economic history ; former Soviet Union
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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    Essen: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2019-05-08
    Description: The objective of this paper is twofold: first, to determine the immigrants' ethnic identity, i.e. the degree of identification to the culture and society of the country of origin and the host country and second, to investigate the impact of ethnic identity on the immigrants' employment outcomes. Using rich survey data from France and relying on a polychoric principal component analysis, this paper proposes two richer measures of ethnic identity than the ones used in the literature, namely: i) the degree of commitment to the origin country culture and ii) the extent to which the individual holds multiple identities. The paper investigates the impact of the ethnic identity measures on the employment outcomes of immigrants in France. The results show that having multiple identities improves the employment outcomes of the migrants and contribute to help design effective post-immigration policies.
    Keywords: J15 ; J21 ; J71 ; Z13 ; ddc:330 ; Ethnic Identity ; Immigration ; Employment ; Polychoric Principal Component Analysis
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-05-09
    Description: We investigate the impact of errors in medium run tax revenue forecasts on the final budget balance. Our analysis is based on fiscal data for the entirety of German states and takes advantage of revenue forecasts and respective errors that can be considered as exogenously given in the budgeting process. We find that forecast errors at various forecast horizons translate considerably into the final budget balance, indicating that expenditure plans get only marginally adjusted when revenue forecasts get revised. Consequently, the accuracy of medium run forecasts considerably affects the sustainability of public finances. Our calculations suggest that a significant share of total debt of German states results from revenue forecasts that were too optimistic.
    Keywords: E62 ; H61 ; H68 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal policy ; fiscal planning ; medium run forecasting ; budget balance ; public debt
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2019-05-09
    Description: We provide a simulation smoother to a exible state-space model with lagged states and lagged dependent variables. Qian (2014) has introduced this state-space model and proposes a fast Kalman filter with time-varying state dimension in the presence of missing observations in the data. In this paper, we derive the corresponding Kalman smoother moments and propose an efficient simulation smoother, which relies on mean corrections for unconditional vectors. When applied to a factor model, the proposed simulation smoother for the states is efficient compared to other state-space models without lagged states and/or lagged dependent variables in terms of computing time.
    Keywords: C11 ; C32 ; C38 ; C63 ; C55 ; ddc:330 ; state-space model ; missing observations ; Kalman filter and smoother ; simulation smoothing ; factor model
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    Essen: RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
    Publication Date: 2019-05-09
    Description: Some consumption opportunities are both indivisible and only valuable in particular tates of nature. The existence of such state-dependent indivisible consumption opportunities influences a person's risk attitudes. In general, people are not risk averse anymore even if utility from divisible consumption is concave. I propose a definition of insurance in the context of state-dependent preferences and investigate the different motives underlying insurance demand. The same reasons that rule out risk aversion turn out to be the basis of a desire to insure. This calls into question the standard approach that bases insurance demand on risk aversion with important implications for policy and research.
    Description: Einige Konsummöglichkeiten sind nicht teilbar und nur in bestimmten Naturzuständen wertvoll. Die Existenz solcher zustandsabhängigen, unteilbaren Konsummöglichkeiten beeinflusst das Risikoverhalten einer Person. Im Allgemeinen sind die Menschen nicht mehr risikoscheu, auch wenn der Nutzen aus dem teilbaren Konsum konkav ist. Ich schlage eine Definition von Versicherung im Zusammenhang mit zustandsabhängigen Präferenzen vor und untersuche die verschiedenen Motive für Versicherungsnachfrage. Die gleichen Gründe, die Risikoaversion ausschließen, erweisen sich als Grundlage für den Wunsch nach einer Versicherung. Damit wird der Standardansatz in Frage gestellt, nach dem Versicherungsnachfrage auf Risikoaversion beruht, mit wichtigen Konsequenzen für Politik und Forschung.
    Keywords: D01 ; D81 ; ddc:330 ; risk preferences ; indivisible consumption ; insurance ; gambling
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
    Publication Date: 2019-05-09
    Description: Using firm-level data between 2004 and 2012 for eleven countries of the European Union (EU), we document the size of product and labour market imperfections within narrowly defined sectors including services which are virtually undocumented. Our findings suggest that perfect competition in both product and labour markets is widely rejected. Levels of the price-cost margin and union bargaining power tend to be higher in some service sectors depicting however substantial heterogeneity. Dispersion within sector and across countries tends to be higher in some services sectors assuming a less tradable nature which suggests that the Single Market integration is partial particularly relaxing the assumption of perfect competition in the labour market. We report also figures for the aggregate economy and show that Eastern countries tend to depict lower product and labour market imperfections compared to other countries in the EU. Also, we provide evidence in favour of a very limited adjustment of both product and labour market imperfections following the international and financial crisis.
    Keywords: D40 ; J50 ; L10 ; ddc:330 ; market imperfection ; market structure ; nash bargaining ; European Union
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Deutsche Bundesbank
    Publication Date: 2019-05-09
    Description: Equilibrium real exchange rate and corresponding misalignment estimates differ tremendously depending on the panel estimation method used to derive them. Essentially, these methods differ in their treatment of the time-series (time) and the cross-section (space) variation in the panel. The study shows that conventional panel estimation methods (pooled OLS, fixed, random, and between effects) can be interpreted as restricted versions of a correlated random effects (CRE) model. It formally derives the distortion that arises if these restrictions are violated and uses two empirical applications from the literature to show that the distortion is generally very large. This suggests the use of the CRE model for the panel estimation of equilibrium real exchange rates and misalignments.
    Keywords: F31 ; C23 ; ddc:330 ; equilibrium real exchange rate ; panel estimation method ; correlated random effects model ; productivity approach ; BEER ; price competitiveness
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    Publication Date: 2019-05-09
    Description: Many studies have shown that childhood circumstances can have long term consequences that persist until old age. To better understand the transmission of early life circumstances, this paper analyses the effects of health and financial situation during childhood on quality of life after retirement as well as the mediating role of later life health, educational level, and income in this association. Moreover, this study is the first to compare these pathways across European regions. The analyses are based on data of 13,092 retirees aged 〉 60 and 〈 85 years from the fifth wave of the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) with full information on childhood and later life measures of health, educational level, financial situation, and quality of life as well as relevant covariates. Five European regions are studied: Central-Western Europe (Austria, Germany), Central-Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Estonia, Slovenia), Northern Europe (Denmark, Sweden), Southern Europe (Italy, Spain), and Western Europe (Belgium, France, The Netherlands). Path analysis is used to identify the direct and indirect effects of childhood measures on quality of life. We find retirees' quality of life to be associated with childhood finances and health in all five European regions. While both the direct and indirect effects of childhood health are rather moderate and homogeneous across regions, especially the direct effects of childhood finances on quality of life after retirement display a distinct North-South gradient being strongest in Southern Europe. Potential explanations for the regional variations are differences in the countries' welfare systems.
    Description: Viele Studien belegen, dass sozioökonomische Faktoren der Kindheit langfristige Folgen bis ins hohe Alter haben können. Um diesen Zusammenhang besser zu durchleuchten, analysiert dieses Papier die Auswirkungen der gesundheitlichen und finanziellen Situation in der Kindheit auf die Lebensqualität im Rentenalter sowie den Einfluss des Bildungsniveaus und des Einkommens sowie der Gesundheit im Rentenalter als potenzielle Mediatoren in diesem Zusammenhang. Darüber hinaus vergleichen wir erstmals die Effekte in verschiedenen europäischen Regionen. Die Ergebnisse basieren auf Daten von 13.092 Rentnern im Alter von 〉 60 und 〈 85 Jahren aus der fünften Welle des Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) mit vollständigen Informationen über die Kindheit und Angaben zu Gesundheit, Bildungsniveau, finanzieller Situation und Lebensqualität im Alter sowie relevanten Kovariablen. Fünf europäische Regionen werden untersucht: Mittelwesteuropa (Österreich, Deutschland), Mittelosteuropa (Tschechien, Estland, Slowenien), Nordeuropa (Dänemark, Schweden), Südeuropa (Italien, Spanien) und Westeuropa (Belgien, Frankreich, Niederlande). Wir nutzen Pfadanalysen, um direkte und indirekte Effekte der sozioökonomischen Faktoren in der Kindheit auf die Lebensqualität zu identifizieren. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Lebensqualität im Rentenalter in allen fünf europäischen Regionen mit der finanziellen Situation sowie der Gesundheit im Kindesalter verbunden ist. Während sowohl die direkten als auch die indirekten Effekte der Gesundheit im Kindesalter in den Regionen eher moderat und homogen sind, zeigen insbesondere die direkten Effekte der finanziellen Situation im Kindesalter auf die Lebensqualität im Rentenalter ein deutliches Nord-Süd-Gefälle, mit den stärksten Effekten in Südeuropa. Mögliche Erklärungen für die regionalen Unterschiede sind Unterschiede in den Wohlfahrt- und Sozialsystemen der Länder.
    Keywords: H75 ; I31 ; J14 ; ddc:330 ; early life circumstances ; life course epidemiology ; retirement phase ; quality of life ; path analysis
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    Göttingen: Courant Research Centre Poverty, Equity and Growth
    Publication Date: 2019-05-09
    Description: A crucial prerequisite for the success of development interventions is their uptake in the targeted population. We use the setup of an intervention conducted in Indonesia and Pakistan to investigate dis-/incentivizing factors for program's uptake and support. Making use of a framework grounded in psychological theory, "The Theory of Planned Behaviour", we consider three determinants for intervention uptake: personal attitudes, the social influence of important others and the perceived ease of intervention use. As most development interventions are characterized by a cooperation among local and international agents, we investigate further a potentially important dis-/incentivizing factor: the salience of the implementer's background. Our findings show that attitudes, important others and ease of intervention use are indeed associated with increased uptake in our two culturally different settings. Conducting a framed field experiment in Indonesia we show further that the study population in the Acehnese context exhibits higher levels of support for the project if the participation of international actors is highlighted. We find that previous experience with the respective actor is pivotal. To strengthen supportive behaviour by the target population for locally led projects, it is essential to strengthen local capabilities to create positive experiences. Hence, our results encourage development research and cooperation, first, to consider personal attitudes, the social influence of important others and the perceived ease of intervention use in the design of interventions in order to increase uptake. Second, depending on the country context, implementers should consider the previous experience with and attitude towards partners - either local or international - when aiming to achieve behavioural change.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Theory of Planned Behaviour ; Framed Field Experiment ; Implementation Research ; Public Health
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Deutsche Bundesbank
    Publication Date: 2019-05-09
    Description: In a parsimonious regime switching model, expected consumption growth varies over time. Adding in ation as a conditioning variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and one with negative expected in ation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset pricing model with learning, these dynamics replicate the observed time variation in stock return volatilities and stock-bond return correlations. Furthermore, they provide an alternative way to come up with a measure of time-varying disaster risk in the spirit of Wachter (2013). Our findings imply that both the disaster and the long-run risk paradigm can be extended towards explaining movements in the stock-bond return correlation.
    Keywords: E31 ; E44 ; G12 ; ddc:330 ; long-run risk ; inflation ; recursive utility ; filtering ; disaster risk
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-05-09
    Description: Mindfulness could influence economic and health related behaviour by bringing about increased and unbiased attention to the present moment, for example to a decision making process. This study explores the relationship between mindfulness and economic preferences, and consequently well-being, of adolescents. Comprehensive data of 525 German secondary school students were elicited and show no evidence for a strong linear or non-linear correlation between mindfulness and economic preferences. However, both mindfulness and preferences have explanatory power for adolescents' field behaviour and thus contribute to explaining variation in behaviour that may translate into serious health and economic consequences. In this regard, my findings indicate that the two concepts play rather complementary than substitutable roles, which implies that an integration of economic preferences and personality traits such as mindfulness may improve the analysis of potential sources of variation in life outcomes. As mindfulness reflects on a healthier lifestyle (less smoking and smaller BMI) and higher life satisfaction, the findings furthermore point into the direction that the development of mindfulness skills might help students to grow social-emotional capacities and increase physical and psychological well-being.
    Keywords: C93 ; D81 ; D90 ; I12 ; I20 ; ddc:330 ; time preference ; risk preferences ; mindfulness ; personality ; experiments with adolescents ; subjective well-being
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    Essen: RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
    Publication Date: 2019-05-09
    Description: How do international labor markets respond to a technology shock and what is the main transmission channel across countries with different labor market institutions? To answer these questions, I identify technology shocks using the approach of Galí (1999) and decompose the responses of total hours worked into movements along the extensive and the intensive margins. Overall, my analysis shows that technology shocks have a negative effect on total hours. This effect is stronger in countries with flexible labor markets, where the adjustment takes place along both margins. In contrast, the responses of total hours are smaller in countries with strict labor market legislation, where labor adjustment takes place along the intensive margin. These differences can be linked to the strictness of institutions that target quantity and price adjustments in the labor market.
    Description: Wie reagieren internationale Arbeitsmärkte auf neue Technologien und wie unterscheiden sich Transmissionsmechanismen zwischen Ländern mit unterschiedlichen Arbeitsmarktinstitutionen? Zur Beantwortung dieser Fragen wird zunächst die Reaktion der geleisteten Arbeitsstunden insgesamt auf einen Technologieschock länderspezifisch geschätzt. Anschließend werden diese Reaktionen in die Anpassungen der Anzahl der Beschäftigten und der Arbeitsstunden je Beschäftigten zerlegt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Arbeitsstunden insgesamt negativ auf neue Technologien reagieren. Dieser Effekt ist ausgeprägter in Ländern mit flexiblen Arbeitsmarktinstitutionen, in welchen sowohl die Anzahl der Beschäftigten als auch die Arbeitsstunden je Beschäftigten in Reaktion auf einen Technologieschock sinken. Dagegen ist der Rückgang der Arbeitsstunden kleiner in Ländern mit rigiden Arbeitsmarktinstitutionen. In diesen Ländern erfolgt die Anpassung in Folge eines Technologieschocks überwiegend über die Arbeitsstunden je Beschäftigten. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass es einen Zusammenhang zwischen den Transmissionsmechanismen der Technologieschocks und den internationalen Arbeitsmarktinstitutionen gibt.
    Keywords: O40 ; O57 ; E32 ; C32 ; ddc:330 ; technology shocks ; labor markets ; business cycle fluctuations ; structural identification
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-05-09
    Description: Little is known about foreign aid provided by private donors. This paper contributes to closing this research gap by comparing the allocation of private humanitarian aid to that of official humanitarian aid awarded to 140 recipient countries over the 2000-2016 period. We construct a new database that offers information on the country in which the headquarters of private donors are located to test whether private donors follow the aid allocation pattern of their home country. Our empirical results confirm that private aid "follows the flag." This finding is robust against the inclusion of various fixed effects, estimating instrumental variables models, and disaggregating private aid into corporate aid and NGO aid. Donor country-specific estimations reveal that private aid from China, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States "follow the flag".
    Keywords: H84 ; F35 ; F59 ; ddc:330 ; foreign aid ; humanitarian assistance ; disaster relief ; aid allocation ; private donors ; non-governmental organizations ; corporations ; private foundations
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2019-03-13
    Description: European integration is increasingly contested in public. What are the policy consequences of this EU politicization? This article argues that politicization challenges the hitherto often technocratic mode of policy preparation in the European Commission. Increased public attention and contestation render the diffuse public a more relevant stakeholder for Europe’s central agenda-setter because future competence transfers to Brussels are more likely to be scrutinized in the public realm. This incentivizes Commission actors to generate widely dispersed regulatory benefits through its policy initiatives, particularly where an initiative covers publicly salient issues. Applying this expectation to 17 European consumer policy initiatives suggests that the Commission orients its policy proposals towards wide-spread consumer interest during periods of high EU politicization and issue salience. However, the mechanism is constrained by internal turf conflicts and anticipated Council preferences. These findings highlight that politicization entails both chances and risks for further, policy-driven integration in Europe.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; consumer policy ; European Commission ; European integration ; politicization ; responsiveness ; salience
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2019-02-14
    Description: Governments use tax expenditures to boost investment, innovation and employment. However, these schemes are largely opaque, costly and often ineffective in reaching their stated goals. They also frequently trigger unwanted side effects. In order to improve the performance of these tools, the authors present three concrete policy proposals: First, governments should increase transparency on tax benefits. G20 members should take the lead on this with frequent and comprehensive tax expenditure reports. Second, G20 governments should improve the design of tax incentives with the aim of minimizing the generation of windfall profits and negative spillover effects within and across (in particular, on poorer) countries. Third, governments should phase out tax expenditures that are environmentally harmful, including tax incentives for fossil fuels and other schemes that promote an unsustainable use of natural resources.
    Keywords: H2 ; H87 ; N4 ; ddc:330 ; tax expenditures ; tax incentives ; tax competition ; investment ; fossil fuel subsidies ; G20
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-14
    Description: In July 2017, Economics: The Open Access, Open Assessment E-Journal issued a call for papers for a special issue on 'The Practice of Replication.' In that call, the journal explained that there was no generally accepted procedure for how to do a replication. Likewise, there was no generally accepted standard for determining whether a replication 'confirms or disconfirms' an original study. Accordingly, the journal called for papers to identify principles for how to do a replication and how to interpret its results; and to apply those principles in crafting a replication plan for a study of the author's choosing. The hope was that this exercise would produce some progress on 'the practice of replication.' The special issue is now complete with a total of eight journal articles. This commentary places the respective articles within a common framework and identifies observations and lessons learned from the respective studies.
    Keywords: C10 ; C18 ; C50 ; ddc:330 ; replication ; pre-analysis plan ; reproduction ; repetition ; extension ; robustness
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    Hamburg: Zentrum für Ökonomische und Soziologische Studien (ZÖSS)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-19
    Description: The relationship between consumption inequality (between two groups) and market concentration has hitherto been absent from the literature. This paper argues that consumption dispersion between white-collar and blue-collar workers has caused increased market concentration in the USA in a direct and long-term structural manner. Using data from the Consumption Expenditure Survey (CES) and the St. Louis Fed's FRED datasets, the argument is empirically analyzed based on yearly data for the period 1984-2011 in the USA. The results confirm the existence of a long-term relationship of causality. Applying a vector auto regressive (VAR) model to the data, we find that the variance in market concentration markup due to consumption dispersion starts to rise after the fourth period and reaches 41% in the tenth period.
    Keywords: J31 ; J51 ; J82 ; ddc:330 ; consumption ; market concentration ; white-collar workers
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 44
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    Hamburg: Berenberg Bank und Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-19
    Description: [Introduction] Ten years ago, the global economic and financial crisis was at its peak. When ailing investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for insolvency on 15 September 2008, the smouldering crisis on the financial markets became a full-scale firestorm. While falling real estate prices had already been causing problems for banks and other financial institutions, it was the Lehman collapse that fanned the flames of the disaster. The consequences were devastating. In several industrial countries, bank after bank was plunged into financial turmoil, and several had to be propped up by the state. The global economy was upended, with many companies and consumers cutting back on spending because of concerns about the consequences of the crisis on the financial markets. Growth in Germany collapsed by roughly 5%, something that had never before been seen in the post-war era. Governments around the world drew up extensive economic stimulus packages in a bid to counter the collapse of private sector spending. Central banks responded with drastic interest cuts, thus laying the foundations for an ultra-expansive monetary policy that would persist for several years. With the economic stimulus measures and the direct aid for troubled financial institutions (including nationalisation), national governments took on a heavy financial burden. Parts of what had been private debt were converted into public debt. The resulting dramatic rise in sovereign debt, which in some cases had already been running at a high level, caused many market participants and the general public to fear huge inflation, state bankruptcy and even currency reforms. A large number of observers described the situation as hopeless. It was this widespread concern that prompted us, back in 2009, to take an in-depth look at the topic of sovereign debt as part of our Strategy 2030 series. The tenor of our analysis at the time was that while the situation in the financial system and with public finances was very serious, there were ways out of the crisis without having to resort to the state bankruptcies, currency reforms or hyperinflation that people feared. Ten years on, we now know that these doomsday prophecies did not come true. With the exception of Greece, there were no state bankruptcies. Similarly, there was no need for currency reforms. Even the euro, which suffered a severe loss of trust in the interim, did not implode. And there has still not been any significant consumer price inflation in the major industrial countries. In fact, in recent years central banks have been more concerned with preventing deflation. So is this positive outcome merely a »snapshot« of the current moment in time, or is there good reason to suggest that we have weathered the crisis? Is there a risk that these painstakingly achieved successes in stabilising state finances could be lost again the next time the economy takes a nose-dive? What happens if interest rates one day start to spike? And is there a threat of a new debt crisis if highly indebted countries such as Italy destroy the tediously crafted reform successes with another departure in economic policy? These are the questions we want to examine in this study. We will shed some light on the status quo and outline the areas that could pose new risks with the ability to reignite the debt crisis.
    Keywords: ddc:330
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  • 45
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    Cologne: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
    Publication Date: 2019-02-19
    Description: Based on data that tracks CV and publication records as well as survey information from sociologists in German academia, we examine the effects of parenthood on the publication output of male and female academics. Results indicate that having children leads to a significant decline in the number of publications by women, while not affecting the number of publications by men. We also find that the gendered effect of children on productivity hardly mitigates differences in publication output between men and women, as women still publish about 20 percent less than men after controlling for the adverse effects of children on productivity. We further find that the gendered effect of childbearing depends partly on prior levels of women's academic achievements, which suggests mechanisms of performance-driven self-selection. Lower-performing women tend to suffer a stronger motherhood penalty, while the publication output of more successful women (who have been granted academic awards) is not reduced through childbirth. The results indicate that women are better at managing the 'double burden' of parenthood and career if external, award-giving committees have bestowed prestige upon them and indicated their potential for a scientific career. Overall, these findings contribute to a better understanding of how to reduce the adverse effect of children on female publication output.
    Description: Auf Basis eines Datensatzes, der Lebenslauf- und Publikationsdaten sowie Informationen aus einem Online-Survey von deutschen Soziologinnen und Soziologen verbindet, untersuchen wir die Auswirkungen von Elternschaft auf den Publikationsoutput von Wissenschaftlern und Wissenschaftlerinnen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Elternschaft zu einem signifikanten Rückgang der Publikationen bei Frauen, nicht aber bei Männern führt. Ebenso zeigt sich jedoch, dass dieser geschlechtsspezifische Effekt bestehende Publikationsunterschiede zwischen Männern und Frauen kaum beseitigt. Frauen publizieren etwa 20 Prozent weniger als Männer, auch nachdem statistisch kontrolliert wird, dass Kinder die Publikationen von Frauen stärker senken als von Männern. Ferner zeigt sich, dass der negative Kinder-Effekt bei Frauen teilweise durch ihre bisherigen akademischen Errungenschaften erklärt werden kann, was auf Selbstselektionseffekte hinweist. Frauen, die mit akademischen Preisen als aussichtsreiche Kandidatinnen für eine akademische Karriere ausgezeichnet wurden, erleben einen geringeren Rückgang an Publikationen, wenn sie Kinder haben. Insgesamt tragen die Resultate zu einem besseren Verständnis dazu bei, wie die negativen Effekte von Elternschaft auf den Publikationsoutput von Frauen verringert werden könnten.
    Keywords: ddc:300 ; academic career ; academic publications ; children ; gender gap ; motherhood penalty ; Benachteiligung von Müttern ; Geschlecht ; Kinder ; wissenschaftliche Karrieren ; wissenschaftliche Publikationen
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  • 46
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-19
    Description: We use the World Input Output Database (WIOD) to estimate the potential employment effects of a hard Brexit in 43 countries. In line with other studies we assume that imports from the European Union (EU) to the UK will decline by 25% after a hard Brexit. The absolute effects are largest in big EU countries which have close trade relationships with the UK like Germany and France. However, there are also large countries outside the EU which are heavily affected via global value chains like China, for example. The relative effects (in percent of total employment) are largest in Malta and Ireland. UK employment will also be affected via intermediate input production. Within Germany, the motor vehicle industry and in particular the 'Autostadt' Wolfsburg are most affected.
    Keywords: C67 ; D57 ; F16 ; R15 ; ddc:330 ; Brexit ; employment ; European Union ; international trade ; tariffs
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 47
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    Essen: RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
    Publication Date: 2019-02-19
    Description: The previous literature has shown that children who enter school at a more advanced age outperform their younger classmates on competency tests taken between kindergarten and Grade 10. This study analyzes whether these effects of school starting age continue into adulthood. Based on data on math and language test scores for adults in Germany, the identification of the long-term causal effects exploits state and year variation in school entry regulations. The results show that there are no effects of school starting age (SSA) on competencies in math and text comprehension. However, the long-term SSA effect is sizable on receptive vocabulary.
    Description: Kinder, die bei der Einschulung älter sind als ihre Mitschüler, da sie deutlich vor dem Einschulungsstichtag geboren sind, schneiden besser in Kompetenztest ab als ihre jüngeren Mitschüler, die erst kurz vor dem Einschulungsstichtag geboren sind. Diese Erkenntnis der bisherigen Literatur wurde bisher jedoch nur für Kompetenzen bis zur 10. Klassenstufe belegt. Die vorliegende Untersuchung betrachtet, ob sich der Einfluss des Alters bei der Einschulung auf Kompetenzen auch im Erwachsenenalter fortsetzt. Dazu wird eine Befragung aus Deutschland genutzt, die Kompetenztests in Mathematik und Deutsch umfasst. Die Identifikation der Langfristeffekte greift auf Variation im Einschulungsstichtag zwischen Bundesländern und über die Zeit hinweg zurück. Es zeigt sich, dass das Alter bei der Einschulung im Erwachsenenalter keinen Effekt auf die Mathekompetenzen und das Textverständnis haben. Der Einfluss auf den Wortschatz ist demgegenüber jedoch auch im Erwachsenenalter ausgeprägt.
    Keywords: I21 ; J21 ; J31 ; ddc:330 ; school starting age ; education ; cognitive competencies ; instrumental variable estimates
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2019-02-20
    Description: This working paper investigates the economic effects of guaranteed loans granted under the EU programmes MAP and CIP on SMEs' growth in Italy, the Benelux and the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) from 2002 to 2016. In these macro-regions, the facilities supported 174,107 loans to SMEs, for a total of EUR 15.58bn. Using a sample of these loans with corresponding firm-level data, this study estimates the average treatment effect on firms' growth, profitability, assets intangibility and survival. The analysis compares beneficiary SMEs to similar firms that were not supported by the programmes, identified through coarsened exact matching (CEM) and propensity score matching (PSM). Overall, guaranteed loans are found to positively affect the growth in assets (+19.6 percentage points over the two years after the end of the signature year), sales (+14.8 percentage points), employment (+16.9 percentage points) and the share of intangible assets (+1 percentage point). No significant effect on profits is observed. Beneficiary SMEs also have lower bankruptcy rates compared to control firms. Consistent with the literature on financing constraints, positive effects are stronger for smaller, younger SMEs. Treatment effects are more pronounced in the Benelux and Nordic countries, mostly due to the sample composition of treated firms in each macro-region.
    Keywords: G2 ; H25 ; O16 ; ddc:330 ; EIF ; credit guarantees ; credit constraints ; real effects ; small and medium-sized enterprises
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2019-02-22
    Description: Estimating the effect of ethnic capital on human capital investment decisions is complicated by the endogeneity of immigrants’ location choice, unobserved local correlates and the reflection problem. We exploit the institutional setting of a rare immigrant settlement policy in Germany, that generates quasi-random assignment across regions, and identify the causal impact of heterogeneous ethnic capital on educational outcomes of children. Correcting for endogenous location choice and correlated unobservables, we find that children of low-educated parents benefit significantly from the presence of high-educated parental peers of the same ethnicity. High educated parental peers from other ethnicities do not influence children’s learning achievements. Our estimates are unlikely to be confounded by the reflection problem since we study the effects of parental peers’ human capital which is pre-determined with respect to children’s outcomes. Our findings further suggest an increase in parental aspirations as a possible mechanism driving the heterogeneous ethnic capital effects, implying that profiling peers or ethnic role models could be important for migrant integration policies.
    Keywords: R23 ; J15 ; I21 ; ddc:330 ; Education ; Ethnic Capital ; Germany ; Peer Effects ; Policy Experiment
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2019-02-22
    Description: We study how unemployment benefit eligibility affects the layoff exit rate by exploiting quasi-experimental variation in eligibility rules in Italy. By using a difference-indifferences estimator, we find an instantaneous increase of about 12% in the layoff probability when unemployment benefit eligibility is attained, which persists for about 16 weeks. These findings are robust to different identifying assumptions and are mostly driven by jobs started after the onset of the Great Recession, in the South and for small firms. We argue that the moral hazard from the employer’s side is the main force driving these layoffs.
    Keywords: C31 ; C41 ; J21 ; J63 ; J65 ; ddc:330 ; Unemployment insurance ; layoffs ; employer–employee moral hazard ; difference-in-differences ; heterogeneous effects
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  • 51
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-23
    Keywords: ddc:330
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  • 52
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    Maastricht: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-22
    Description: The growing divergence in U.S. employee relations is described through a review of national and state-level changes to employment protection laws. Major employment laws are reviewed, as are the significant exceptions to the laws, and exemptions to the exceptions. Major regulatory actions, as well as reversals of the regulations, and reversals of the reversals are also described. An analysis of changes to state employment policies since 2000 shows an increasing ideologically driven divergence within the country between left-leaning “equity and voice” states and right-leaning “individual rights and efficiency” states. Instability and divergence are major features of the U.S. system of employee relations that require additional scrutiny.
    Keywords: J50 ; J80 ; H77 ; ddc:330 ; Employee relations ; employment protection ; federalism ; divergence
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 53
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Deutsche Bundesbank
    Publication Date: 2019-02-23
    Description: Central bank announcements move financial markets. The response of inflation and growth expectations, on the other hand, is often small or even counterintuitive. Based on tick-by-tick futures prices on bonds and stock prices, I confirm these seemingly puzzling results for the euro area and provide evidence that they are due to central bank information effects. That is, ECB announcements convey information not only about monetary policy, but also about economic fundamentals. I separate these "information shocks" from "pure policy shocks" via sign restrictions and find intuitive effects of both shocks on a wide set of financial market prices and survey measures of economic expectations.
    Keywords: E52 ; E44 ; E32 ; C32 ; ddc:330 ; Monetary Policy ; High-Frequency Identification ; Central Bank Information
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 54
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-28
    Description: In this paper, the authors investigate the statistical properties of some cryptocurrencies by using three layers of analysis: alpha-stable distributions, Metcalfe's law and the bubble behaviour through the LPPL modelling. The results show, in the medium to long-run, the validity of Metcalfe's law (the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system) for the evaluation of cryptocurrencies; however, in the short-run, the validity of Metcalfe's law for Bitcoin is questionable. As the results showed a potential for herding behaviour, the authors then used LPPL models to capture the behaviour of cryptocurrencies exchange rates during an endogenous bubble and to predict the most probable time of the regime switching. The main conclusion is that Metcalfe's law may be valid in the long-run, however in the short-run, on various data regimes, its validity is highly debatable.
    Keywords: C22 ; C32 ; C51 ; C53 ; C58 ; E41 ; E42 ; E47 ; E51 ; G1 ; G17 ; ddc:330 ; Cryptocurrency ; Bitcoin ; CRIX ; Log-Periodic Power Law ; Metcalfe's Law ; Stable Distribution ; Herding
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  • 55
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-28
    Description: The recovery from the Global Financial Crisis was characterized by sluggish output growth and by inflation remaining persistently below the inflation targets of central banks in many advanced economies despite an unprecedented monetary expansion. Ten years after the Global Financial Crisis, GDP remains below its pre-crisis trend in many economies and interest rates continue to be very low. This raises the question of whether low GDP growth and low interest rates are a temporary phenomenon or are due to a decline in long-run growth prospects (potential output growth) and equilibrium real interest rates (natural interest rate). Addressing this question is important for central banks for conducting monetary policy and adjusting their strategy. In this paper, the authors address this question based on a review of the literature and an evaluation of the most recent data and discuss implications for monetary policy.
    Keywords: E31 ; E32 ; E43 ; E52 ; E58 ; ddc:330 ; natural interest rate ; potential output ; output gap ; monetary policy
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 56
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-28
    Description: As the problem of carbon emissions is becoming increasingly more serious around the world, how to balance carbon emissions reduction and economic growth has become an important issue in the field of ecological economics. China is the world's largest carbon dioxide emitter, and China's Low-Carbon Pilot (CLCP) policy has significantly reduced carbon dioxide emissions and achieved expected benefits. However, is environmental quality improving at the expense of economic growth? Based on panel data from 286 Chinese prefecture-level cities and from Chinese micro-industrial enterprises from 2001 to 2013, this article focuses on the causal effect of environmental policy on regional economic growth and the benefits and changes in the behavior of enterprises through a quasi-natural experiment and the difference-in-differences (DID) method. The results are as follows. First, the CLCP policy significantly promotes regional economic growth. Moreover, as the implementation time of the policy continues, environmental regulation has a greater effect of promoting economic growth. Second, although the CLCP policy significantly increases various production costs, it also promotes the growth of enterprises' output and benefits. Third, under the pressure of the significant increase in enterprise cost caused by environmental regulation, enterprises choose the positive way of strengthening internal management, improving efficiency and increasing innovation instead of choosing the negative way of trans-regional transfer to exit the market; accordingly, enterprises finally achieve an improvement in output and benefits.
    Keywords: O12 ; O13 ; Q38 ; ddc:330 ; CLCP policy ; economic growth ; behavior of enterprise ; DID
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  • 57
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-28
    Description: Narratives are under-theorised and until recently under-recognised as core variables influencing the speed and direction of changes in expectations and, therefore, as core macroeconomic variables that shape the policy processes of central banks. The author examines below how the thousands of micro-level narratives garnered on a regular basis by the Bank of England's staff of regional agents can inform what Ricardo Reis and Alan Blinder (Understanding the Greenspan standard, 2005) term the "macroeconomic allegories" that influence monetary policy decision-making. The contacts that make up the "network" perform descriptive, explanatory, and interpretive labor in situ putting words both to the ephemera of local expectations across the UK and to the rapidly changing competitive pressures unfolding in global markets. Internal studies have demonstrated that the micro-level narratives collected and scored by the agents provide the most reliable information on the future course of the British economy of any of the projections or forecasts available to the Bank.
    Keywords: E47 ; E58 ; E71 ; ddc:330 ; central banks and their policies ; role and effects of psychological ; emotional ; social ; and cognitive factors on the macro economy
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2019-03-01
    Description: We analyze data from an author-conducted survey of members of the French and German parliaments on European Monetary Union reform prefer