ALBERT

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Description: The occurrence of felt earthquakes due to gas production in Groningen has initiated numerous studies and model attempts to understand and quantify induced seismicity in this region. The whole bandwidth of available models spans the range from fully deterministic models to purely empirical and stochastic models. In this article, we summarise the most important model approaches, describing their main achievements and limitations. In addition, we discuss remaining open questions and potential future directions of development.

Description: This case study examined the structural change in Lusatia caused by the system change from a centrally planned economy to a market economy in the period 1990-2015. It analysed the structural change process and the structural policies implemented as a reaction to this process with the objective to make this knowledge available for future structural change processes in other (coal) regions by deploying various qualitative and quantitative methods of empirical social and economic research. A discourse analysis helped to recognise who supported which structural policy approaches and why - and thus gives indications of the possible relevance of experiences for other regions.

Description: In the global methane budget, the largest natural source is attributed to wetlands, which encompass all ecosystems composed of waterlogged or inundated ground, capable of methane production. Among them, northern peatlands that store large amounts of soil organic carbon have been functioning, since the end of the last glaciation period, as long-term sources of methane (CH4) and are one of the most significant methane sources among wetlands. To reduce uncertainty of quantifying methane flux in the global methane budget, it is of significance to understand the underlying processes for methane production and fluxes in northern peatlands. A methane model that features methane production and transport by plants, ebullition process and diffusion in soil, oxidation to CO2, and CH4 fluxes to the atmosphere has been embedded in the ORCHIDEE-PEAT land surface model that includes an explicit representation of northern peatlands. ORCHIDEE-PCH4 was calibrated and evaluated on 14 peatland sites distributed on both the Eurasian and American continents in the northern boreal and temperate regions. Data assimilation approaches were employed to optimized parameters at each site and at all sites simultaneously. Results show that methanogenesis is sensitive to temperature and substrate availability over the top 75 cm of soil depth. Methane emissions estimated using single site optimization (SSO) of model parameters are underestimated by 9 g CH4 m−2 yr−1 on average (i.e., 50 % higher than the site average of yearly methane emissions). While using the multi-site optimization (MSO), methane emissions are overestimated by 5 g CH4 m−2 yr−1 on average across all investigated sites (i.e., 37 % lower than the site average of yearly methane emissions).

Description: Socio-hydrological flood risk models describe the temporal co-evolution of coupled human–flood systems. However, most models oversimplify the flood loss processes and do not consider companies’ substantial contribution to total losses. This work presents a socio-hydrological flood risk model for companies that focuses on changes in vulnerability. In addition, we augment the socio-hydrological model with a process-oriented, sector-specific loss model in order to capture damage processes more realistically. In a case study, we simulate the historical flood risk dynamics of companies in the floodplain of Dresden, Germany, over the course of 120 years. Our analysis suggests that the companies in Dresden increase their exposure more cautiously than private households and decrease their vulnerability more actively through private precaution. The augmentation, consisting of informative predictors, a refined probabilistic model, and the incorporation of additional data, improves the accuracy and reliability of the flood loss estimates and reduces their uncertainty.

Description: The scope of the Science Plan is to describe the scientific background, applications, and activities of the Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program (EnMAP) imaging spectroscopy mission. Primarily, this document addresses scientists and funding institutions, but it may also be of interest to environmental stakeholders and governmental agencies. It is designed to be a living document that will be updated throughout the entire mission lifetime. Chapter 1 provides a brief overview of the principles and current state of imaging spectroscopy. This is followed by an introduction to the EnMAP mission, including its objectives and impact on international programs as well as major environmental and societal challenges. Chapter 2 describes the EnMAP system together with data products and access, calibration/validation, and synergies with other missions. Chapter 3 gives an overview of the major fields of application such as vegetation and forests, geology and soils, coastal and inland waters, cryosphere, urban areas, atmosphere and hazards. Finally, Chapter 4 outlines the scientific exploitation strategy, which includes the strategy for community building and training, preparatory flight campaigns and software developments. A list of abbreviations is provided in the annex to this document and an extended glossary of terms and abbreviations is available on the EnMAP website.

Description: In the last decades, seismotectonic analog models have been developed to better understand many aspects of the seismic cycle. Differently from other lab-quake experiments, seismotectonic models mimic the first order characteristics of the seismic cycle in a scaled fashion. Here we introduce Foamquake: a novel seismotectonic model with a granular frictional interface that as a whole behaves elastoplastically. The model experiences cycles of elastic loading and release via spontaneous nucleation of frictional instabilities at the base of an elastic foam wedge, hereafter called foamquakes. These analog earthquakes show source parameters (i.e., moment-duration and moment-rupture area) scaling as great interplate earthquakes and a coseismic displacement of few tens of meters when scaled to nature. Models with two asperities separated by a barrier can be performed with Foamquake given the 3D nature of the setup. Such model configuration generates sequences of full and partial ruptures with different recurrence intervals as well as rupture cascades. By tuning the normal load acting on individual asperities, Foamquake reproduces superimposed cycles rupture patterns such as those observed along natural megathrusts. The physical properties of asperities and barriers affect model seismic behavior. Asperities with similar properties and low yield strength fail preferentially in a simultaneous manner. The combination of all those characteristics suggests that Foamquake is a valuable tool for investigating megathrust seismicity and seismic processes that depend on the 3D nature of the subduction environment.

Description: This brochure is designed for scientists and engineers of upcoming drilling projects and explains the key steps and important challenges in planning and executing continental scientific drilling.

Description: Induced seismicity associated with fluid injection into underground formations jeopardizes the sustainable utilization of the subsurface. Understanding the fault behavior is the key to successful management and mitigation of injection-induced seismic risks. As a fundamental approach, laboratory experiments have been extensively conducted to assist constraining the processes that lead to and sustain various injection-induced fault slip modes. Here, we present a state-of-the-art review on the emerging topic of injection-induced seismicity from the laboratory perspective. The basics of fault behavior, including fault strength and instability, are first briefly summarized, followed by the paradoxical stability analysis arising from the current theoretical framework. After the description of common laboratory methods and auxiliary techniques, we then comprehensively review the effects of fault properties, stress state, temperature, fluid physics, fluid chemistry and injection protocol on fault behavior with particular focus on the implications for injection-induced seismicity. We find that most of the shear tests are conducted under displacement-driven conditions, while the number of injection-driven shear tests is comparatively limited. The review shows that the previous work on displacement-driven rock friction and fault slip modes partially unravel the mystery of injection-induced fault behavior, and recent experimental studies on the injection-driven response of critically stressed faults provide complementary insights. Overall, laboratory experiments have substantially advanced especially our understanding of the roles of fault roughness, fault mineralogy, stress state, fluid viscosity, fluid induced mineral dissolution, and injection rate in injection-induced seismicity, which has been successfully used to interpret many field observations. However, there are still outstanding questions in this area, which could be addressed by future experimental studies, such as the feasibility of seismic-informed adaptive injection strategy for mitigating seismic risks, cold fluid injection into critically stressed faults under hydrothermal conditions, and fault friction evolution during cyclic injection spanning from undrained to drained conditions.

Description: In this study, the variability of the migrating solar diurnal (DW1) tide in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) region during Northern and Southern Hemisphere (NH & SH) Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) is investigated using Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperature observations and reanalysis-driven Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere extension (WACCM-X) simulations. The periods examined include four major NH SSWs that occurred in 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2013 and two SH SSWs that were observed in 2002 and 2019. Our analysis shows that the DW1 tide in both observations and simulations displays a reduction of amplitude at low-latitudes after the onset of NH and SH SSWs. As WACCM-X simulations qualitatively reproduce this feature of DW1 tidal variability common to both NH and SH SSWs, they have been used to examine the possible mechanism that could explain these observations in the DW1 tide. It is known that changes in the latitudinal shear of zonal winds at low-latitudes strongly affect the seasonal variation of the DW1 tide in the MLT. We show that SSW-associated changes in the latitudinal shear in the MLT could explain the observed variability of the DW1 tide during NH and SH SSWs.

Description: Model-based scenario analyses of future energy systems often come to deviating results and conclusions when different models are used. This may be caused by heterogeneous input data and by inherent differences in model formulations. The representation of technologies for the conversion, storage, use, and transport of energy is usually stylized in comprehensive system models in order to limit the size of the mathematical problem, and may substantially differ between models. This paper presents a systematic comparison of nine power sector models with sector coupling. We analyze the impact of differences in the representation of technologies, optimization approaches, and further model features on model outcomes. The comparison uses fully harmonized input data and highly simplified system configurations to isolate and quantify model-specific effects. We identify structural differences in terms of the optimization approach between the models. Furthermore, we find substantial differences in technology modeling primarily for battery electric vehicles, reservoir hydro power, power transmission, and demand response. These depend largely on the specific focus of the models. In model analyses where these technologies are a relevant factor, it is therefore important to be aware of potential effects of the chosen modeling approach. For the detailed analysis of the effect of individual differences in technology modeling and model features, the chosen approach of highly simplified test cases is suitable, as it allows to isolate the effects of model-specific differences on results. However, it strongly limits the model's degrees of freedom, which reduces its suitability for the evaluation of fundamentally different modeling approaches.

Description: The Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) Science Plan, released in 2015, addressed a need for a holistic system understanding and outlined the most urgent research needs for the rapidly changing Arctic-boreal region. Air quality in China, together with the long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants, was also indicated as one of the most crucial topics of the research agenda. These two geographical regions, the northern Eurasian Arctic-boreal region and China, especially the megacities in China, were identified as a “PEEX region”. It is also important to recognize that the PEEX geographical region is an area where science-based policy actions would have significant impacts on the global climate. This paper summarizes results obtained during the last 5 years in the northern Eurasian region, together with recent observations of the air quality in the urban environments in China, in the context of the PEEX programme. The main regions of interest are the Russian Arctic, northern Eurasian boreal forests (Siberia) and peatlands, and the megacities in China. We frame our analysis against research themes introduced in the PEEX Science Plan in 2015. We summarize recent progress towards an enhanced holistic understanding of the land–atmosphere–ocean systems feedbacks. We conclude that although the scientific knowledge in these regions has increased, the new results are in many cases insufficient, and there are still gaps in our understanding of large-scale climate–Earth surface interactions and feedbacks. This arises from limitations in research infrastructures, especially the lack of coordinated, continuous and comprehensive in situ observations of the study region as well as integrative data analyses, hindering a comprehensive system analysis. The fast-changing environment and ecosystem changes driven by climate change, socio-economic activities like the China Silk Road Initiative, and the global trends like urbanization further complicate such analyses. We recognize new topics with an increasing importance in the near future, especially “the enhancing biological sequestration capacity of greenhouse gases into forests and soils to mitigate climate change” and the “socio-economic development to tackle air quality issues”.

Description: Hochwasser stellt ein großes Risiko für Wohngebäude in Europa dar, und es wird erwartet, dass das Risiko in der Zukunft aufgrund klimatischer und sozioökonomischer Veränderungen zunehmen wird. Aktuelle Hochwasserrisikomodelle basieren meist auf einfachen Wasserstands-Schadenskurven. Diese Ansätze vereinfachen die Hochwasserschadensprozesse stark, können ungenau sein und bergen große Unsicherheiten, die oft nicht quantifiziert. Die Doktorarbeit stellt die Integration neuer Daten in probabilistische, multivariable Schadensmodelle zur Verbesserung ihrer Übertragbarkeit vor. Diese neuen Datenquellen und Modellierungsansätze werden verwendet, um zukünftige Veränderung des Hochwasserrisikos für Wohngebäude in Europa abzuschätzen und Risikokomponenten zu analysieren. Die Arbeit zeigt, OpenStreetMap (OSM) Daten liefern nützliche Informationen für die Modellierung von Hochwasserschäden und ermöglichen Modelltransfers. Die Integration von aus OSM abgeleiteten Gebäudeeigenschaften und Hochwassererfahrung aus Ereignisdatenbanken in das Bayes’sche Netzwerk basierte Hochwasserschadensmodelle für den privaten Sektor (BN-FLEMOps) ermöglichte die Implementierung auf der Mesoskala. Durch Vergleiche von Schadensschätzungen mit beobachteten Schäden in mehreren Fallstudien in Europa wurde das Modell validiert und detailliert mit einem Ensemble aus 20 Schadensmodellen verglichen. In einer abschließenden Studie werden die zukünftigen Veränderungen des Risikos für Wohngebäude in Europa modelliert. Die erwarteten jährlichen Schäden bis zum Ende des 21. Jahrhunderts werden um das 10-fache ansteigen. Die Britischen Inseln und der größte Teil von Zentral-Europa müssen mit einer starken Risikozunahme rechnen. Teile Skandinaviens und des Mittelmeerraums werden dagegen ein stagnierendes oder abnehmendes Hochwasserrisiko verzeichnen. Eine Verbesserung der privaten Vorsorgemaßnahmen könnte das Hochwasserrisiko im Mittel um 15 % und in einigen europäischen Regionen um bis zu 20 % verringern.

Description: Flooding poses great risks for residential buildings in Europe and is expected to increase in the future, driven by climatic and socio-economic change. Current flood risk models rely mostly on simple stage-damage curves for flood loss estimation. This approach oversimplifies flood damage processes, can be inaccurate and harbour large uncertainties that often are not quantified and transparently communicated. This thesis presents research that integrates new data sources into probabilistic, multi-variable loss models to improve their transferability. These new data sources and approaches are used to estimate future fluvial flood risk change for residential buildings in Europe. Contributions of the three risk components, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are analysed and compared independently and in combination. OpenStreetMap (OSM) data are identified as a valuable source of information for flood loss modelling and enables model transfers while retaining high predictive performance. Integrating OSM derived building characteristics and flood experience information from flood event databases into the Bayesian Network Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the private sector (BN-FLEMOps) enables the spatio-temporal and scale transformation of the model. The model is validated with reported losses in multiple case studies in Europe and compared in detail with a model ensemble of 20 internationally published flood loss models. In a final study, the future flood risk changes for residential buildings in Europe are modelled. The expected annual damage will increase up to 10-fold until the end of the 21st century. Most of Central Europe and the British Isles have to expect strong risk increases. Parts of Scandinavia and the Mediterranean on the other hand will see stagnating or decreasing fluvial flood risk. Improving private precaution could reduce flood risk by 15 % on average and up to 20 % in some European regions.

Description: This study presents in detail: the use of plastic products and the opportunities for recyclate use in the construction sector, quantities of plastic used, take-back systems, recycling techniques, current recyclate use and plastic construction product packaging.Potentials for increasing high-quality recyclate use were identified. Existing hurdles and options for action for industry and politics are presented. Current recyclate use as well as its potential use are strongly dependent on the application area of plastics. The biggest hurdles for the use of recycled materials are product life time, dismantling and technical requirements.

Description: The Alpine mountains in central Europe are characterized by a heterogeneous crust accumulating different tectonic units and blocks in close proximity to sedimentary foreland basins. Centroid moment tensor inversion provides insight into the faulting mechanisms of earthquakes and related tectonic processes but is significantly aggravated in such an environment. Thanks to the dense AlpArray seismic network and our flexible bootstrap-based inversion tool Grond, we are able to test different setups with respect to the uncertainties of the obtained moment tensors and centroid locations. We evaluate the influence of frequency bands, azimuthal gaps, input data types, and distance ranges and study the occurrence and reliability of non-double-couple (DC) components. We infer that for most earthquakes (Mw≥3.3) a combination of time domain full waveforms and frequency domain amplitude spectra in a frequency band of 0.02–0.07 Hz is suitable. Relying on the results of our methodological tests, we perform deviatoric moment tensor (MT) inversions for events with Mw〉3.0. Here, we present 75 solutions for earthquakes between January 2016 and December 2019 and analyze our results in the seismotectonic context of historical earthquakes, seismic activity of the last 3 decades, and GNSS deformation data. We study regions of comparably high seismic activity during the last decades, namely the Western Alps, the region around Lake Garda, and the eastern Southern Alps, as well as clusters further from the study region, i.e., in the northern Dinarides and the Apennines. Seismicity is particularly low in the Eastern Alps and in parts of the Central Alps. We apply a clustering algorithm to focal mechanisms, considering additional mechanisms from existing catalogs. Related to the N–S compressional regime, E–W-to-ENE–WSW-striking thrust faulting is mainly observed in the Friuli area in the eastern Southern Alps. Strike-slip faulting with a similarly oriented pressure axis is observed along the northern margin of the Central Alps and in the northern Dinarides. NW–SE-striking normal faulting is observed in the NW Alps, showing a similar strike direction to normal faulting earthquakes in the Apennines. Both our centroid depths and hypocentral depths in existing catalogs indicate that Alpine seismicity is predominantly very shallow; about 80 % of the studied events have depths shallower than 10 km.

Description: Cataclasites are a characteristic rock type found in drill cores from active faults as well as in exposed fossil subduction faults. Here, cataclasites are commonly associated with evidence for pervasive pressure solution and abundant hydro­ fracturing. They host the principal slip of regular earthquakes and the family of so­called slow earthquakes (episodic slip and tremor, low to very low frequency earthquakes, etc.). Slip velocities associated with the formation of the different types of cataclasites and conditions controlling slip are poorly constrained both from direct observations in nature as well as from experimental research. In this study, we explore exposed sections of subduction faults and their dominant microstructures. We use recently proposed constitutive laws to estimate deformation rates, and we compare predicted rates with instrumental observations from subduction zones. By identifying the maximum strain rates using fault scaling relations to constrain the fault core thickness, we find that the instrumental shear strain rates identified for the family of “slow earthquakes” features range from 10−3s−1 to 10−5s−1. These values agree with estimated rates for stress corrosion creep or brittle creep possibly controlling cataclastic deformation rates near the failure threshold. Typically, pore­fluid pressures are suggested to be high in subduction zones triggering brittle deformation and fault slip. However, seismic slip events causing local dilatancy may reduce fluid pressures promoting pressure­solution creep (yielding rates of 〈10−8 to 10−12s−1) during the interseismic period in agreement with dominant fabrics in plate interface zones. Our observations suggest that cataclasis is controlled by stress corrosion creep and driven by fluid pressure fluctuations at near­lithostatic effective pressure and shear stresses close to failure. We posit that cataclastic flow is the dominant physical mechanism governing transient creep episodes such as slow slip events (SSEs), accelerating preparatory slip before seismic events, and early afterslip in the seismogenic zone.

Description: Within the Shaping Digitalisation project, we aim to highlight and discuss the opportunities that digitalisation can bring to Germany. In particular, we are discussing three stand-out areas where action is most needed to achieve ecological transformation: mobility, the circular economy, and agriculture and food. This report addresses the second area in need of action. Up until now, discussions on the circular economy have been limited to recycling and the re-use of materials. We must expand the scope of these discussions to include new, resource-efficient business models and the comprehensive transformation of value chains and industrial structures. Our analysis has found that digitalisation is indispensable for this transformation if used properly. We hope this report will provide the impetus needed to kick-start a climate- and resource-friendly industrial transformation in Germany. Here, we have incorporated the findings of our interdisciplinary workshop on "Shaping the Digital-Ecological Industrial Transformation - Business Models and Political Framework Conditions for Climate and Resource Protection" that was attended by experts from international research institutes, civil organizations, public authorities, and private companies.

Description: Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is low risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication both challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure continue to increase in coastal areas. Through the last decades, tsunamis have caught coastal populations off-guard, providing evidence of lack of preparedness. Recent tsunamis, such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, 2011 Tohoku and 2018 Palu, have shaped the way tsunami risk is perceived and acted upon. Based on lessons learned from a selection of past tsunami events, this paper aims to review the existing body of knowledge and the current challenges in tsunami risk communication, and to identify the gaps in the tsunami risk management methodologies. The important lessons provided by the past events call for strengthening community resilience and improvement in risk-informed actions and policy measures. This paper shows that research efforts related to tsunami risk communication remain fragmented. The analysis of tsunami risk together with a thorough understanding of risk communication gaps and challenges is indispensable towards developing and deploying comprehensive disaster risk reduction measures. Moving from a broad and interdisciplinary perspective, the paper suggests that probabilistic hazard and risk assessments could potentially contribute towards better science communication and improved planning and implementation of risk mitigation measures.