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  • ddc:551.6  (6)
  • John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  (6)
  • English  (6)
  • 2020-2023  (6)
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  • English  (6)
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  • 1
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    Comparing the performance of high‐resolution global precipitation products across topographic and climatic gradients of Central Asia (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-13
    Description: Accurate and reliable precipitation data with high spatial and temporal resolution are essential in studying climate variability, water resources management, and hydrological forecasting. A range of global precipitation data are available to this end, but how well these capture actual precipitation remains unknown, particularly for mountain regions where ground stations are sparse. We examined the performance of three global high‐resolution precipitation products for capturing precipitation over Central Asia, a hotspot of climate change, where reliable precipitation data are particularly scarce. Specifically, we evaluated MSWEP, CHIRPS, and GSMAP against independent gauging stations for the period 1985–2015. Our results show that MSWEP and CHIRPS outperformed GSMAP for wetter periods (i.e., winter and spring) and wetter locations (150–600 mm·year−1), lowlands, and mid‐altitudes (0–3,000 m), and regions dominated by winter and spring precipitation. MSWEP performed best in representing temporal precipitation dynamics and CHIRPS excelled in capturing the volume and distribution of precipitation. All precipitation products poorly estimated precipitation at higher elevations (〉3,000 m), in drier areas (〈150 mm), and in regions characterized by summer precipitation. All products accurately detected dry spells, but their performance decreased for wet spells with increasing precipitation intensity. In sum, we find that CHIRPS and MSWEP provide the most reliable high‐resolution precipitation estimates for Central Asia. However, the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the performance call for a careful selection of a suitable product for local applications considering the prevailing precipitation dynamics, climatic, and topographic conditions.
    Description: We present the first quantitative evaluation of global high‐resolution (below 12 km) precipitation products against independent ground observations over Central Asia. Our results show that MSWEP was best at representing temporal precipitation dynamics, and CHIRPS was most prominent in representing the volume and distribution of precipitation. This is especially the case of wet seasons, altitudes below 3,000 m, and regions dominated by spring and winter precipitation. Our analysis provides key insights on the precipitation products' suitability for local hydrological applications.
    Description: Leibniz‐Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Transformationsökonomien
    Description: Volkswagen Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001663
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-09-27
    Description: While the evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing, global projections of regional climate change are still uncertain due to model‐dependent changes in large‐scale atmospheric circulation, including over North Atlantic and Europe. Here, the Jenkinson–Collison classification of daily circulation patterns is used to evaluate past and future changes in their seasonal frequencies over Central Europe for the 1900–2100 period. Three reanalyses and eight global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, were used based on daily mean sea‐level pressure data. Best agreement in deriving relative frequencies of the synoptic types was found between the reanalyses. Global models can generally capture the interannual variability of circulation patterns and their climatological state, especially for the less frequent synoptic types. Based on historical data and the shared socioeconomic pathway 5 scenario, the evaluated trends show more robust signals during summer, given their lesser internal variability. Increasing frequencies were found for circulation types characterized by weak pressure gradients, mainly at the expense of decreasing frequencies of westerlies. Our findings indicate that given a high‐emission scenario, these signals will likely emerge from past climate variability towards the mid‐21st century for most altered circulation patterns.
    Description: Daily synoptic circulation patterns are derived using the Jenkinson–Collinson automated classification over Central Europe to evaluate past and future changes in their temporal frequencies. Reanalyses and eight global climate models from the CMIP6 were used based on the historical experiment and a high‐emission scenario. More robust signals were found during the summer season leading to emerging changes towards the mid‐21st century.
    Description: H2020 Marie Skłodowska‐Curie Actions http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010665
    Description: EU International Training Network (ITN) Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub‐seasonal Extremes (CAFE)
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    How close are we to 1.5 degC or 2 degC of global warming? (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-08-09
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Recent evidence for warmer and drier growing seasons in climate sensitive regions of Central America from multiple global datasets (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-07-26
    Description: Smallholder livelihoods throughout Central America are built on rain‐fed agriculture and depend on seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation. Recent climatic shifts in this highly diverse region are not well understood due to sparse observations, and as the skill of global climate products have not been thoroughly evaluated. We examine the performance for several reanalysis and satellite‐based global climate data products (CHIRPS/CHIRTS, ERA5, MERRA‐2, PERSIANN‐CDR) as compared to the observation‐based GPCC precipitation dataset. These datasets are then used to evaluate the magnitude and spatial extent of hydroclimatic shifts and changes in aridity and drought over the last four decades. We focus on water‐limited regions that are important for rain‐fed agriculture and particularly vulnerable to further drying, and newly delineate those regions for Central America and Mexico by adapting prior definitions of the Central American Dry Corridor. Our results indicate that the CHIRPS dataset exhibits the greatest skill for the study area. A general warming of 0.2–0.8°C·decade−1 was found across the region, particularly for spring and winter, while widespread drying was indicated by several measures for the summer growing season. Changes in annual precipitation have been inconsistent, but show declines of 20–25% in eastern Honduras/Nicaragua and in several parts of Mexico. Some regions most vulnerable to drying have been subject to statistically significant trends towards summer drying, increases in drought and aridity driven by precipitation declines, and/or a lengthening of the winter dry season, highlighting areas where climate adaptation measures may be most urgent.
    Description: Over the past four decades, precipitation trends are the main driver of drought trends, with temperature trends playing a small role. The most widespread drying and increases in aridity have occurred during the summer growing season. Based on delimitations of water‐limited and climate‐sensitive regions (brown shading) that are important for rain‐fed agriculture, some of these highly vulnerable regions overlap with areas of significant drying (red), highlighting potential prioritization areas for climate adaptation measures. image
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Frias Institute of Advanced Studies (FRIAS) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003190
    Description: National Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Impact of a large artificial lake on regional climate: A typical meteorological year Meso‐NH simulation results (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2022-04-01
    Description: Large artificial lakes and reservoirs affect the meteorological regime of the shore area and the local climate takes on a number of new features that were previously absent. This work focuses on the weather impact of the Alqueva reservoir, the largest artificial lake in Western Europe. An extensive set of numerical simulations using Meso‐NH mesoscale atmospheric model coupled with FLake (Freshwater Lake) scheme was carried out. The simulations covered a 12‐month period that was chosen to compose a so‐called Typical Meteorological Year. This artificial time period is meant to represent the typical meteorological conditions in the region and the model results are used to assess the changes in the local climate. To evaluate the raw impact of the reservoir, two different scenarios of simulations were compared: (A) with the reservoir as it exists nowadays and (B) without the reservoir using the older surface dataset. The results show decrease of air temperature during daytime (10–9°C) and nighttime increase (up to 10°C). In nearest towns, daily maximum temperature decreased and daily minimum temperature increased, which refers to milder weather conditions. Alqueva mainly showed suppression in fog formation in the nearby area. Local breeze regime was studied and monthly lake/land breezes were described.
    Description: Large lakes and artificial reservoirs can affect the meteorological regime of their coastal areas and impact the local climate. This work focuses on the weather impact of the Alqueva reservoir, the largest artificial lake in Western Europe, studied on the basis of mesoscale atmospheric modelling data over the 12‐month period composed in a typical meteorological year for the region of interest.
    Description: ALOP project
    Description: COMPETE 2020 ICT project
    Description: Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
    Description: TOMAQAPA
    Description: http://mesonh.aero.obs-mip.fr/mesonh54/Download
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Variability of the precipitation over the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia. Part I: Linear and nonlinear trends of the annual and seasonal precipitation (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-29
    Description: The Tianshan Mountains, with their status as ‘water tower’, receive quantities of precipitation that are among the highest in Central Asia. There are considerable knowledge gaps regarding the understanding of spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation over this water‐scarce region. Based on the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) data set, this study evaluated the precipitation variations over Tianshan Mountains on different time scales by using Mann‐Kendall (M‐K) test approaches and the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. The results show that (a) most parts of Tianshan experienced increasing annual precipitation during 1950–2016 while Western Tianshan, which is the wettest region, faced a downtrend of precipitation during the same 67 years; (b) the annual precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains has exhibited high‐frequency variations with 3‐ and 6‐year quasi‐periods and low‐frequency variations with 12‐, 27‐year quasi‐periods. On the decadal scale, Tianshan had two dry periods (1950–1962 and 1973–1984) and two wet periods (1962–1972 and 1985–2016) and has experienced a tendency of continuous humidification since 2004; (c) the precipitation over the Tianshan Mountains shows a strong seasonality. In total, 63.6% of all precipitation falls in spring and summer. Distinctive differences are found in seasonal precipitation variations among the sub‐Tianshan regions. Obvious upward trends of precipitation over Eastern Tianshan were found in all seasons, with Eastern Tianshan entering a humid period as early as 1986. Northern and Central Tianshan experienced a decreasing trend in summer and spring. However, in the other seasons, those two sub‐Tianshan regions have been in humid periods since the 1990s. The precipitation over Western Tianshan showed an upward trend in summer and autumn. The obvious downward trends in spring and winter have led to dry periods in these two seasons from 1997–2014 to 2008–2016, respectively.
    Description: Most parts of Tianshan experienced increasing annual precipitation during 1950–2016 while Western Tianshan, which is the wettest region, faced a downtrend of precipitation during the same 67 years. Distinctive differences are found in seasonal precipitation variations among the sub‐Tianshan regions.
    Description: Humboldt‐Universität zu Berlin National Natural Science Foundation of China
    Description: China Scholarship Council (CSC)
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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