ALBERT

Beschreibung: A methodology to assess future development in patterns of vulnerability is presented which can support the assessment of global policies with regard to their impacts on specific vulnerabilities on the regional or local scale. Patterns of vulnerability, formalized by vulnerability profiles (e.g. for the livelihoods of dryland smallholder farmers) were investigated under different consistent indicator scenarios reflecting different global policies. After unfolding several principal possibilities to do such an analysis of temporal change in vulnerability patterns we could conclude that the concept of “Clusters of Change” (CoCs) is the most straight forward and promising approach. The main arguments are that each interpretation has necessarily to consider both, the starting situation and it’s change over time (”poor and heavily improving”, ”rich and stagnating” etc.). This implies that we are looking for patterns which represent typical combinations of present states AND expected future changes. An application of the CoC-concept to the drylands vulnerability patterns considering the indicator set for the present situation and the same indicator set for 2050 under a baseline scenario was performed as a test. Comparison of the present vulnerability cluster partition with the spatial distribution of the CoCs revealed that most of these clusters are separated into an improving and a deteriorating part which shows where winners and losers of the baseline scenario are – an interesting result which illustrates the appropriateness of the CoC – method. To explore the potential of CoCs for the dryland vulnerability we applied the method to two different sets of scenarios until 2050: a baseline vs. Climate policy scenario (OECD, 2012) and a ”policy first” scenario vs. ”security first” scenario (UNEP, 2007). The first one serves as an example for a policy assessment while the second compares the vulnerability consequences of two scenarios based on different story-lines of further global development. The main conclusion to be drawn from these calculations is that the CoCs are rather insensitive with regard to the small differences between the scenarios. Regarding the first set of scenarios the relatively short time horizon of relevant influences of climate policies on climate change impacts and several indicators which are not influenced at all generate only a very small difference. The only significant change in the resulting vulnerability profiles was in the values of change in water scarcity: it was lower for all profiles in the climate policy case. The second set of scenarios is not directly related to policy decisions but to different global story-lines which deviate stronger. This resulted in an increasing cluster number from 4 (policy first) to 5 (security first) clusters, about 20% of the pixels changing cluster membership, 3 clusters showing the same spatial extent for both scenarios but the 4th cluster (“policy first”) “losing” India which generates a separate cluster in the “security first” scenario. This allows for the interpretation that a further development according to the “security first”-storyline compared to the “policy first”-storyline would make a difference particularly for India. Closer inspection of the respective profile shows a qualitatively different situation indicating increased vulnerability compared to the “policy first” scenario where India shares one cluster with e.g., Northern Africa.

Beschreibung: Climate change is arguably the most severe challenge facing our planet during the 21st century. Human interference with the climate system (mainly through the emission of greenhouse gases and changes in land use) has increased the global and annual mean air temperature at the Earth's surface by roughly 0.8 °C since the 19th century (IPCC, 2013). The year 2014 was the hottest one on record so far (NOAA, 2015a), and at the time of writing, 2015 appears to be on track to set a new record (NOAA, 2015b). This trend of increasing temperatures will continue into the future: by 2100, the globe could warm by another 4 °C or so if emissions are not decisively reduced within the next decades (IPCC, 2013). There is broad agreement that a warming of this magnitude would have profound impacts both on the environment and on human societies (IPCC, 2014a), and that climate change mitigation via a transformation to decarbonized economies and societies has to be achieved to prevent the worst of these impacts (IPCC, 2014b). The spatial and temporal extent of the climate challenge deeply connects it to ethical questions as well. These arise both from the fact that the poorest people on Earth are not significantly contributing to global emissions, but may well feel the impacts most severely, and from the long‐term commitment to future warming and climate change impacts – like sea level or the partial melting of the large ice sheets – which will be felt by future generations. In essence, past and future greenhouse gas emissions seriously affect a large fraction of the still growing human population on our planet and profoundly shape the environment in which our children and grandchildren will have to live in. Humanity therefore has a moral obligation to address the climate challenge. This will have to combine successful negotiations on a binding and effective international climate agreement and bottom‐up initiatives from individuals or communities. There is a wide range of global threats that certainly require humanity's urgent attention (see the recent report by the World Economic Forum, 2015). These global risks include water, food and energy security, population growth, infectious diseases, and international security, for example. However, climate change is often regarded as one of the most profound global problems. This is mainly due to the sheer scale of climate change impacts – both in terms of its global and temporal spread and of the variety of sectors affected by it – that sets it apart from other planetary challenges. Indeed, recent high‐level initiatives highlight the importance of climate change, including the ground‐breaking encyclical of Pope Francis, the G7 countries' pledge to phase out fossil fuels or Barack Obama's new climate mitigation proposal. But climate change cannot be considered isolated from other challenges. Indeed, climate change is a truly cross‐cutting issue affecting many sectors and connected to other global challenges. For example, climate change has the potential to impact global water supplies, agricultural production, human health, and our energy infrastructure. In turn, the way in which we produce our energy and food has a profound effect on the Earth's climate system. Finally, the impacts of policies in one of the fields on the other challenges need to be explored if truly sustainable solutions to global problems shall be achieved. These close connections – and the societal and technical challenges of climate mitigation (IPCC 2014b) and adaptation (IPCC 2014a) – require interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary thinking; we hope that our new journal Global Challenges can serve as a highly visible forum for research bridging classical scientific disciplines, for ideas which have the potential to directly influence future climate policy and for discussions about new research and different policy options. Within the climate change focus of Global Challenges , we therefore invite submissions related to climate change of the highest quality, with a clear focus on the global view of the climate problem and with relevance for (global) climate policy or bottom‐up initiatives which are a significant step towards a solution of the climate challenge. We explicitly invite submissions connecting climate change to the other challenges covered by the journal. In addition to original research papers, we will regularly commission commentary pieces and review articles highlighting the most relevant recent developments in climate research and policy as well as the most exciting open research questions. I firmly believe that a journal like Global Challenges with its broad scope, its cross‐cutting nature, its focus on policy relevance, and its open‐access publication model is an important and innovative outlet for high‐quality research work on global problems in general. Concerning climate change in particular, I am looking forward to working with the editorial team, the staff at Wiley and the global climate science community to develop Global Challenges into one of the major journals in the field.

Beschreibung: While deforestation represents an obvious ecosystem change, forest degradation is often more difficult to discern or quantify, but it impacts anumber of ecosystem functions which are vital for biodiversity and climate feedbacks. In the Brazilian Amazon, land-use changes increasefire occurrence, especially in fragmented forests close to managed land. We used remote sensing imagery to estimate the extent and impact of forest fires in degraded tropical rain-forest in the Brazilian Legal Amazon between 2007 and 2010and examinedland-use establishing in degraded areas. The trends in degraded area vs. burned area were different. Even though degradation increased one year after a high fire year, there wasnospatialoverlap, which pointsto other causes for degradation. Up to 11% of the degraded area was burned in the same year, playing escaping fires from managed and deforested lands a significant role in degradation by fire. Eighty-fourpercent of 2007s degraded area remained forest one year later, whereas the rest was identified as deforestation, secondary vegetation or pasture.Three years after degradation, 80% remained forest, the proportion of deforested area decreased and areas in regeneration after being deforested increased. Monitoring of forest degradation across tropical forests is critical for developing land management policies and for carbon stocks/emissions estimation.

Beschreibung: Focusing on critical aspects of infrastructure, such as energy, this brief argues that Africa, and African cities in particular, need infrastructure that advances both basic needs and industrialization, and avoids a lock-in of unsustainable, high-carbon technologies. G20 countries can promote and support quality of life in Africa by: (1) aligning and cementing the G20 Agenda for Africa with African initiatives, SDGs and the Paris Agreement, (2) mitigating economic risks of climate change through supporting low carbon development pathways in Africa, (3) creating and enabling a level playing field for low carbon technologies, which includes integrated strategies for de-risking renewable energy investments, and (4) supporting smart and sustainable urban planning.

Beschreibung: This chapter is a joint effort by natural and legal scientists to make the case for the dramatic consequences black carbon (BC) emissions mainly from outside the Arctic region have on the Arctic ecosystem, and how BC has recently become the specific focus of a regime complex. The authors provide scientific knowledge about the sources, pathways, and climate impacts of BC emissions, and stress the special relevance of possible near-immediate climate benefits from BC emission reduction in the Arctic. Further consideration is given to the crucial importance of the governance responses to these opportunities and challenges. Thus, the second part of the chapter critically discusses the status and prospects of current multilateral BC emission reduction efforts in the context of the Arctic Council, the International Maritime Organization, and the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution.

Beschreibung: The BEST PATHS project is focused on the development and demonstration of grid equipment suitable for bulk power transmission across Europe. This work summarises the different cable conductor designs envisioned during the first 2.5 years of the superconducting demonstrator, taking benefit of the improved performance of MgB2 wires produced by Columbus Superconductors. The results of extensive validation tests carried out at CERN on two cables manufactured by Nexans are also presented.

Beschreibung: Lumbini, in southern Nepal, is a UNESCO world heritage site of universal value as the birthplace of Buddha. Poor air quality in Lumbini and surrounding regions is a great concern for public health as well as for preservation, protection and promotion of Buddhist heritage and culture. We present here results from measurements of ambient concentrations of key air pollutants (PM, BC, CO, O3) in Lumbini, first of its kind for Lumbini, conducted during an intensive measurement period of 3 months (April–June 2013) in the pre-monsoon season. The measurements were carried out as a part of the international air pollution measurement campaign; SusKat-ABC (Sustainable Atmosphere for the Kathmandu Valley – Atmospheric Brown Clouds). The main objective of this work is to understand and document the level of air pollution, diurnal characteristics and influence of open burning on air quality in Lumbini. The hourly average concentrations during the entire measurement campaign ranged as follows: BC was 0.3–30.0 µg m−3, PM1 was 3.6–197.6 µg m−3, PM2. 5 was 6.1–272.2 µg m−3, PM10 was 10.5–604.0 µg m−3, O3 was 1.0–118.1 ppbv and CO was 125.0–1430.0 ppbv. These levels are comparable to other very heavily polluted sites in South Asia. Higher fraction of coarse-mode PM was found as compared to other nearby sites in the Indo-Gangetic Plain region. The ΔBC ∕ ΔCO ratio obtained in Lumbini indicated considerable contributions of emissions from both residential and transportation sectors. The 24 h average PM2. 5 and PM10 concentrations exceeded the WHO guideline very frequently (94 and 85 % of the sampled period, respectively), which implies significant health risks for the residents and visitors in the region. These air pollutants exhibited clear diurnal cycles with high values in the morning and evening. During the study period, the worst air pollution episodes were mainly due to agro-residue burning and regional forest fires combined with meteorological conditions conducive of pollution transport to Lumbini. Fossil fuel combustion also contributed significantly, accounting for more than half of the ambient BC concentration according to aerosol spectral light absorption coefficients obtained in Lumbini. WRF-STEM, a regional chemical transport model, was used to simulate the meteorology and the concentrations of pollutants to understand the pollutant transport pathways. The model estimated values were ∼ 1. 5 to 5 times lower than the observed concentrations for CO and PM10, respectively. Model-simulated regionally tagged CO tracers showed that the majority of CO came from the upwind region of Ganges Valley. Model performance needs significant improvement in simulating aerosols in the region. Given the high air pollution level, there is a clear and urgent need for setting up a network of long-term air quality monitoring stations in the greater Lumbini region.

Beschreibung: PAH concentrations were measured in total suspended particle (TSP) samples collected from six sites along two south-north transects across the central Himalayas from April 2013 to March 2014. The annual average TSP and PAH (especially 5- and 6-ring compounds) concentrations were found to decrease noticeably northwards along both transects. At rural and urban sites, the TSP and PAH concentrations showed clear seasonal variations, with the lower concentrations around the mid-monsoon season and the higher values in the winter season. Meanwhile, at the remote sites (e.g., Nyalam and Zhongba), these pollutants generally remained constant throughout the year but with relatively higher levels during the pre-monsoon season. Both IndP/(IndP + BghiP) and Fla/(Fla + Pyr) ratios suggested that atmospheric PAHs from urban and rural sites were mainly associated with emissions from biomass burning, coal burning and petroleum combustion. However, the contribution of biomass burning increased at remote sites. Similar compositions of PAHs were found at three remote sites located on both sides of the Himalayas (Jomsom, Zhongba, and Nyalam), suggesting that the northern side of the Himalayas may be affected by anthropogenic emissions from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) via long-range atmospheric transport. This work provides a database of PAHs in central Himalayas for further assessing environmental risk of air pollution in the remote regions.

Beschreibung: This volume explores the governance of the transforming Arctic from an international perspective. Leading and emerging scholars in Arctic research investigate the international causes and consequences of contemporary Arctic developments, and assess how both state and non-state actors respond to crucial problems for the global community. Long treated as a remote and isolated region, climate change and economic prospects have put the Arctic at the forefront of political agendas from the local to the global level, and this book tackles the variety of involved actors, institutional politics, relevant policy issues, as well as political imaginaries related to a globalizing Arctic. It covers new institutional forms of various stakeholder engagement on multiple levels, governance strategies to combat climate change that affect the Arctic region sooner and more strongly than other regions, the pros and cons of Arctic resource development for the region and beyond, and local and trans-boundary pollution concerns. Given the growing relevance of the Arctic to international environmental, energy and security politics, the volume helps to explain how the region is governed in times of global nexuses, multi-level politics and multi-stakeholderism.