ALBERT

Description / Table of Contents: Starting from a more general discussion of mechanisms controlling organic carbon deposition in marine environments and indicators useful for paleoenvironmental reconstructions, this study concentrates on detailed organic-geochemical and sedimentological investigations of late Cenozoic deep-sea sediments from (1) the Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea (ODP-Leg 105), (2) the upwelling area off Northwest Africa (ODP-Leg 108), and (3) the Sea of Japan (ODP-Leg 128). Of major interest are shortas well as long-term changes in organic carbon accumulation during the past 20 m.y. As shown in the data from ODP-Legs 105, 108, and 128, sediments characterized by similar high organic carbon contents can be deposited in very different environments. Thus, simple total organic carbon data do not allow (i) to distinguish between different factors controlling organic carbon enrichment and (ii) to reconstruct the depositional history of these sediments. Data on both quantity and composition of the organic matter, however, provide important informations about the depositional environment and allow detailed reconstructions of the evolution of paleoclimate, paleoceanic circulation, and paleoproductivity in these areas. The results have significant implications for quantitative models of the mechanisms of climatic change. Furthermore, the data may also help to explain the formation of fossil black shales, i.e., hydrocarbon source rocks. (1) BAFFIN BAY AND LABRADOR SEA The Miocene to Quaternary sediments at Baffin Bay Site 645 are characterized by relatively high organic carbon contents, most of which range from 0.5% to almost 3%. This organic carbon enrichment was mainly controlled by increased supply .of terrigenous organic matter throughout the entire time interval. Two distinct maxima were identified: (i) a middle Miocene maximum, possibly reflecting a dense vegetation cover and fluvial sediment supply from adjacent islands, that decreased during late Miocene and early Pliocene time because of expansion of tundra vegetation due to global climatic deterioration; (ii) a late Pliocene-Pleistocene maximum possibly caused by glacial erosion and meltwater outwash. Significant amounts of marine organic carbon were accumulated in western Baffin Bay during middle Miocene time, indicating higher surface-water productivity (up to about 150 gC m -2 y-l) resulted from the inflow of cold and nutrient-rich Arctic water masses. The decrease in average surface-water productivity to values similar to those of the modern Baffin Bay was recorded during the late Miocene and was probably caused by the development of a seasonal sea-ice cover. At Labrador Sea Sites 646 and 647, organic carbon contents are low varying between 0.10% and 0.75%; the origin of most of the organic matter probably is marine. A major increase in organic carbon accumulation at Site 646 at about 7.2 Ma may indicate increased surface-water productivity triggered by the onset of the cold East-Greeniand Current system. Near 2.4 Ma, i.e., parallel to the development of major Northern Hemisphere Glaciation, accumulation rates of both organic carbon and biogenic opal decreased, suggesting a reduced surface-water productivity because of the development of dosed seasonal sea-ice cover in the northern Labrador Sea. The influence of varying sea-ice cover on surface-water productivity is also documented in the short-term glacial/interglacial fluctuations in organic carbon deposition at Sites 646 and 647. (2) UPWELLING AREAS OFF NORTHWEST AFRICA The upper Pliocene-Quaternary sediments at coastal-upwelling Site 658 are characterized by high organic carbon contents of 4%; the organic matter is a mixture of marine and terrigenous material with a dominance of the marine proportion. The upper Miocene to Quaternary pelagic sediments from close-by non-upwelling Sites 657 and 659, on the other hand, display low organic carbon values of less than 0.5%. Only in turbidites and slumps occasionally intercalated at the latter two sites, high organic carbon values of up to 3% occur. The high accumulation rates of marine organic carbon recorded at Site 658 reflect the high-productivity upwelling environment. Paleoproductivity varies between 100 and 400 gC m "2 y-1 during the past 3.6 m.y. and is clearly triggered by changes in global climate. However, there is no simple relationship between climate and organic carbon supply, i.e., it is not possble to postulate that productivity was generally higher at Site 658 during glacials than during interglacials or vice versa. Changes in the relative importance between upwelling activity (which was increased during glacial intervals) and fluvial nutrient supply (which was increased during interglacial intervals) may have caused the complex productivity record at Site 658. Most of the maximum productivity values, for example, were recorded at peak interglacials and at terminations indicating the importance of local fluvial nutrient supply at Site 658. Near 0.5 Ma, a long-term decrease in paleoproductivity occurs, probably indicating a decrease in fluvial nutrient supply and/or a change in nutrient "content of the upwelled waters. The former explanation is supported by the contemporaneous decrease in terrigenous organic carbon and (river-borne) clay supply suggesting an increase in long-term aridity in the Central Sahara. At Site 660, underneath the Northern Equatorial Divergence Zone, (marine) organic carbon values of up to 1.5% were recorded in upper Pliocene-Quaternary sediments. During the last 2.5 Ma, the glacial sediments are carbonate-lean and enriched in organic carbon probably caused by the influence of a carbonate-dissolving and oxygen-poor deep-water mass. (3) SEA OF JAPAN Based on preliminary results of organic-geochemical investigations, the Miocene to Quaternary sediments from ODP-Sites 798 (Oki Ridge) and 799 (Kita-Yamato-Trough) are characterized by high organic carbon contents of up to 6%; the organic matter is a mixture between marine and terrigenous material. Dominant mechanisms controlling (marine) organic carbon enrichments are probably high-surface water productivity and increased preservations rates under anoxic deep-water conditions. In the lower Pliocene sediments at Site 798 and the Miocene to Quaternary sediments at Site 799, rapid burial of organic carbon in turbidites may have occurred episodically. Distinct cycles of dark laminated sediments with organic carbon values of more than 5% and light bioturbated to homogenous sediments with lower organic carbon contents indicate dramatic shortterm paleoceanographic variations. More detailed records of accumulation rates of marine and terrigenous organic carbon and biogenic opal as well as a detailed oxygen isotope stratigraphy are required for a more precise reconstruction of the environmental history of the Sea of Japan through late Cenozoic time.

Description / Table of Contents: PREFACE There are problems, when applying statistical inference to the analysis of data, which are not readily solved by the inferential methods of the standard statistical techniques. One example is the computation of confidence intervals for variance components or for functions of variance components. Another example is the statistical inference on the random parameters of the mixed model of the standard statistical techniques or the inference on parameters of nonlinear models. Bayesian analysis gives answers to these problems. The advantage of the Bayesian approach is its conceptual simplicity. It is based on Bayes' theorem only. In general, the posterior distribution for the unknown parameters following from Bayes' theorem can be readily written down. The statistical inference is then solved by this distribution. Often the posterior distribution cannot be integrated analytically. However, this is not a serious drawback, since efficient methods exist for the numerical integration. The results of the standard statistical techniques concerning the linear models can also be derived by the Bayesian inference. These techniques may therefore be considered as special cases of the Bayesian analysis. Thus, the Bayesian inference is more general. Linear models and models closely related to linear models will be assumed for the analysis of the observations which contain the information on the unknown parameters of the models. The models, which are presented, are well suited for a variety of tasks connected with the evaluation of data. When applications are considered, data will be analyzed which have been taken to solve problems of surveying engineering. This does not mean, of course, that the applications are restricted to geodesy. Bayesian statistics may be applied wherever data need to be evaluated, for instance in geophysics. After an introduction the basic concepts of Bayesian inference are presented in Chapter 2. Bayes' theorem is derived and the introduction of prior information for the unknown parameters is discussed. Estimates of the unknown parameters, of confidence regions and the testing of hypotheses are derived and the predictive analysis is treated. Finally techniques for the numerical integration of the integrals are presented which have to be solved for the statistical inference. Chapter 3 introduces models to analyze data for the statistical inference on the unknown parameters and deals with special applications. First the linear model is presented with noninformative and informative priors for the unknown parameters. The agreement with the results of the standard statistical techniques is pointed out. Furthermore, the prediction of data and the linear model not of full rank are discussed. A method for identifying a model is presented and a less sensitive hypothesis test for the standard statistical techniques is derived. The Kalman-Bucy filter for estimating unknown parameters of linear dynamic systems is also given. Nonlinear models are introduced and as an example the fit of a straight line is treated. The resulting posterior distribution for the unknown parameters is analytically not tractable, so that numerical methods have to be applied for the statistical inference. In contrast to the standard statistical techniques, the Bayesian analysis for mixed models does not discriminate between fixed and random parameters, it distinguishes the parameters according to their prior information. The Bayesian inference on the parameters, which correspond to the random parameters of the mixed model of the standard statistical techniques, is therefore readily accomplished. Noninformafive priors of the variance and covariance components are derived for the linear model with unknown variance and covariance components. In addition, informative priors are given. Again, the resulting posterior distributions are analytically not tractable, so that numerical methods have to be applied for the Bayesian inference. The problem of classification is solved by applying the Bayes rule, i.e. the posterior expected loss computed by the predictive density function of the observations is minimized. Robust estimates of the standard statistical techniques, which are maximum likelihood type estimates, the so-called M-estimates, may also be derived by Bayesian inference. But this approach not only leads to the M-estimates, but also any inferential problem for the parameters may be solved. Finally, the reconstruction of digital images is discussed. Numerous methods exist for the analysis of digital images. The Bayesian approach unites some of them and gives them a common theoretical foundation. This is due to the flexibility by which prior information for the unknown parameters can be introduced. It is assumed that the reader has a basic knowledge of the standard statistical techniques. Whenever these results are needed, for easy reference the appropriate page of the book "Parameter Estimation and Hypothesis Testing in Linear Models" by the author (Koch 1988a) is cited. Of course, any other textbook on statistical techniques can serve this purpose. To easily recognize the end of an example or a proof, it is marked by a A or a t~, respectively. I want to thank all colleagues and students who contributed to this book. In particular, I thank Mr. Andreas Busch, Dipl.-Ing., for his suggestions. I also convey my thanks to Mrs. Karin Bauer, who prepared the copy of the book. The assistance of the Springer- Verlag in checking the English text is gratefully acknowledged. The responsibility of errors, of course, remains with the author.

Description / Table of Contents: PREFACE Following the economical and social development of the local communities, mountain regions of temperate climates are increasingly becoming the site of valuable infrastructures and important urban and industrial settlements. As the catastrophic events of last years in the European Alps have clearly shown, the vulnerability of these territories has correspondingly increased, in terms of both property damage and losses of human life. Until recently, the hydraulic scientific community has paid little attention to mountain watersheds, except perhaps during the period if the hydropower development. Nevertheless attention was then focused on problems and methodologies somewhat different from the issues of actual environmental concern. More recently, however, hydraulic engineers have joined their colleagues from forest and rural engineering, who have traditionally dealt with erosion control in mountain areas, to bring in their own methodology, already experienced in lowland rivers. At the same time, academic people focused an interest in some phenomena, like massive transport, which is typical of mountain environment. To bring together all these contributions and to make the state of the art of the mountain river science (oropotamology) and technology, an International Workshop was called at the University of Trent (Italy), on October 1989, under the sponsorship of Fluvial Hydraulic Section of the IAHR. Three main topics have been recognized as particularly relevant from the point of view of both research and professivnal people: a) Hydrodynamics of steep channels and local scale process; b) Sediment movement and sediment training, with special emphasis on massive transport; c) Particular features of sediment transport related to non-uniform grain-size. However, as it is the case in these circumstances, the contest of several contributions often spread over more than one topic. In the following Introduction to papers, the three topics were split into 11 Sections, each one devoted to a more particular aspect recurrently addressed during the discussion. The same paper, thus, may be mentioned in different Sections of the Introduction.