ALBERT

Description / Table of Contents: Are world oil and gas supplies under threat? How could a new international accord on stabilising greenhouse-gas emissions affect global energy markets? World Energy Outlook 2008 answers these and other burning questions. WEO-2008 draws on the experience of another turbulent year in energy markets to provide new energy projections to 2030, region by region and fuel by fuel. It incorporates the latest data and policies. WEO-2008 focuses on two pressing issues facing the energy sector today: - Prospects for oil and gas production: How much oil and gas exists and how much can be produced? Will investment be adequate? Through field-by-field analysis of production trends at 800 of the world’s largest oilfields, an assessment of the potential for finding and developing new reserves and a bottom-up analysis of upstream costs and investment, WEO-2008 takes a hard look at future global oil and gas supply. - Post-2012 climate scenarios: What emissions limits might emerge from current international negotiations on climate change? What role could cap-and-trade and sectoral approaches play in moving to a low-carbon energy future? Two different scenarios are assessed, one in which the atmospheric concentration of emissions is stabilised at 550 parts per million (ppm) in CO2 equivalent terms and the second at the still more ambitious level of 450 ppm. The implications for energy demand, prices, investment, air pollution and energy security are fully spelt out. This groundbreaking analysis will enable policy makers to distill the key choices as they strive to agree in Copenhagen in 2009 on a post-Kyoto climate framework. With extensive data, detailed projections and in-depth analysis, WEO-2008 provides invaluable insights into the prospects for the global energy market and what they mean for climate change.

Description / Table of Contents: The aim of this IEA Information Paper is to help policy makers and other stakeholders understand the challenges facing the incorporation of high efficiency combined heat and power (CHP) into greenhouse gas (GHG) Emissions Trading Schemes (ETSs) – and to propose options for overcoming them.

Description / Table of Contents: The conflicts over the break-up of the former Yugoslavia damaged much of the energy infrastructure and compounded the challenge of providing reliable energy supply. The Western Balkans – composed of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo – is a complex region facing significant energy challenges. The conflicts over the break-up of the former Yugoslavia damaged much of the energy infrastructure and compounded the challenge of providing reliable energy supply. Electricity systems in many parts of the region remain fragile and in need of investment. A priority across the region is to put into place the institutions, infrastructure and policies that can support the provision of reliable, affordable and sustainable energy. For the Western Balkans as a whole, a key element of the reform effort is the Energy Community Treaty – a regulatory and market framework to which the entire region has now subscribed. This Treaty aims to create an integrated regional market for electricity and gas compatible with the European Union’s internal energy market. This Energy Policy Survey is the first comprehensive review of energy policies and strategies in the Western Balkan region, and also covers important cross-cutting topics such as co-operation and energy trade, oil and gas transportation, and the links between energy and poverty. It identifies and assesses the reforms that are still needed to deliver efficient, modernised energy systems that can assist economic development, address energy poverty and reduce the environmental impacts of energy use.

Description / Table of Contents: The aim of this paper is to describe and analyse current approaches to encourage energy efficiency in building codes for new buildings. Based on this analysis the paper enumerates policy recommendations for enhancing how energy efficiency is addressed in building codes and other policies for new buildings. This paper forms part of the IEA work for the G8 Gleneagles Plan of Action. These recommendations reflect the study of different policy options for increasing energy efficiency in new buildings and examination of other energy efficiency requirements in standards or building codes, such as energy efficiency requirements by major renovation or refurbishment. In many countries, energy efficiency of buildings falls under the jurisdiction of the federal states. Different standards cover different regions or climatic conditions and different types of buildings, such as residential or simple buildings, commercial buildings and more complicated high-rise buildings. There are many different building codes in the world and the intention of this paper is not to cover all codes on each level in all countries. Instead, the paper details different regions of the world and different ways of standards. In this paper we also evaluate good practices based on local traditions. This project does not seek to identify one best practice amongst the building codes and standards. Instead, different types of codes and different parts of the regulation have been illustrated together with examples on how they have been successfully addressed. To complement this discussion of efficiency standards, this study illustrates how energy efficiency can be improved through such initiatives as efficiency labelling or certification, very best practice buildings with extremely low- or no-energy consumption and other policies to raise buildings’ energy efficiency beyond minimum requirements. When referring to the energy saving potentials for buildings, this study uses the analysis of recent IEA publications, including the World Energy Outlook 2006 (WEO) and Energy Technology Perspective (ETP). Here, we based the estimates of potentials on the scenarios presented, in particular on the predictions of consumption in the residential and commercial sectors in the WEO 2006. Finally, this paper recommends policies which could be used to realise these large and feasible energy saving potentials in new buildings, and the use of building codes by renovation or refurbishment. The paper addresses as well experts as policy makers and interest groups with particular interest in energy efficiency in new buildings. Some parts might hence seem simplified and known for some experts, such as the discussions on barriers or the climatic impact on efficiency. Other parts might on the other hand seem a little technical for the policy oriented reader or for some interest groups. But there are large and compelling opportunities, this is recognised by many experts as well as there is a will to act by many policymakers and governments. But still too little happen because there are barriers and low understanding also in the institutional parts or little communications between different layers of the implementation process. The paper hence aims to bridge these gabs by addressing several different groups at the same time. So hopefully the reader will accept these inconveniences.

Description / Table of Contents: The world needs ever increasing energy supplies to sustain economic growth and development. But energy resources are under pressure and CO2 emissions from today’s energy use already threaten our climate. What options do we have for switching to a cleaner and more efficient energy future? How much will it cost? And what policies do we need? This second edition of Energy Technology Perspectives addresses these questions, drawing on the renowned expertise of the International Energy Agency and its energy technology network. This publication responds to the G8 call on the IEA to provide guidance for decision makers on how to bridge the gap between what is happening and what needs to be done in order to build a clean, clever and competitive energy future. The IEA analysis demonstrates that a more sustainable energy future is within our reach, and that technology is the key. Increased energy efficiency, CO2 capture and storage, renewables, and nuclear power will all be important. We must act now if we are to unlock the potential of current and emerging technologies and reduce the dependency on fossil fuels with its consequent effects on energy security and the environment. This innovative work demonstrates how energy technologies can make a difference in an ambitious series of global scenarios to 2050. The study contains technology road maps for all key energy sectors, including electricity generation, buildings, industry and transport. Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 provides detailed technology and policy insights to help focus the discussion and debate in energy circles..

Description / Table of Contents: This report explores the effects of the EU emissions trading scheme on the aluminium sector (i.e. competitiveness loss and carbon leakage). With its very high electricity intensity, primary aluminium stands out in the heavy industry picture: a sector whose emissions are not capped in the present EU ETS, European aluminium smelters still stand to lose profit margins and, possibly, market shares, as electricity prices increase following CO2 caps on generators’ emissions - the famous pass-through of CO2 prices into electricity prices. The analysis includes a method of quantification of this issue, based on two indicators: profit margins and trade flows. As the EU is at the forefront of such policy, the paper provides policy messages to all countries on how trade exposed energy-intensive industries can be ‘moved’ by carbon constraint. This also is a contentious topic in Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the US, where ambitious climate policies – including cap-and-trade systems – are currently debated.

Description / Table of Contents: This study assesses the long-term economic and environmental effects of introducing price caps and price floors in hypothetical climate change mitigation architecture, which aims to reduce global energy-related CO2 emissions by 50% by 2050. Based on abatement costs in IPCC and IEA reports, this quantitative analysis confirms what qualitative analyses have already suggested: introducing price caps could significantly reduce economic uncertainty. This uncertainty stems primarily from unpredictable economic growth and energy prices, and ultimately unabated emission trends. In addition, the development of abatement technologies is uncertain. See also Assessing the value of price caps and floors, November 2009 This study assesses the long-term economic and environmental effects of introducing price caps and price floors in hypothetical climate change mitigation architecture, which aims to reduce global energy-related CO2 emissions by 50% by 2050. Based on abatement costs in IPCC and IEA reports, this quantitative analysis confirms what qualitative analyses have already suggested: introducing price caps could significantly reduce economic uncertainty. This uncertainty stems primarily from unpredictable economic growth and energy prices, and ultimately unabated emission trends. In addition, the development of abatement technologies is uncertain. With price caps, the expected costs could be reduced by about 50% and the uncertainty on economic costs could be one order of magnitude lower. Reducing economic uncertainties may spur the adoption of more ambitious policies by helping to alleviate policy makers’ concerns of economic risks. Meanwhile, price floors would reduce the level of emissions beyond the objective if the abatement costs ended up lower than forecasted. If caps and floors are commensurate with the ambition of the policy pursued and combined with slightly tightened emission objectives, climatic results could be on average similar to those achieved with “straight” objectives (i.e. with no cost-containment mechanism).

Description / Table of Contents: Climate change is a major challenge. Secure, reliable and affordable energy supplies are needed for economic growth, but increases in the associated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are the cause of major concern. About 69% of all CO2 emissions, and 60% of all greenhouse gas emissions, are energy-related. Recent IEA analysis in Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 (ETP) projects that the CO2 emissions attributable to the energy sector will increase by 130% by 2050 in the absence of new policies or supply constraints, largely as a result of increased fossil fuel usage. The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report indicates that such a rise in emissions could lead to a temperature increase in the range of 4-7°C, with major impacts on the environment and human activity. It is widely agreed that a halving of energy-related CO2 emissions is needed by 2050 to limit the expected temperature increase to less than 3 degrees. To achieve this will take an energy technology revolution involving increased energy effi ciency, increased renewable energies and nuclear power, and the decarbonisation of power generation from fossil fuels. The only technology available to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from large-scale fossil fuel usage is CO2 capture and storage (CCS). The ETP scenarios demonstrate that CCS will need to contribute nearly one-fi fth of the necessary emissions reductions to reduce global GHG emissions by 50% by 2050 at a reasonable cost. CCS is therefore essential to the achievement of deep emission cuts. Most of the major world economies recognise this, and have CCS technology development programmes designed to achieve commercial deployment. In fact, at the 2008 Hokkaido Toyako summit, the G8 countries endorsed the IEA’s recommendation that 20 large-scale CCS demonstration projects need to be committed by 2010, with a view to beginning broad deployment by 2020. Ministers specifi cally asked for an assessment by the IEA in 2010 of the implementation of these recommendations, as well as an assessment of progress towards accelerated deployment and commercialisation. Current spending and activity levels are nowhere near enough to achieve these deployment goals. CCS technology demonstration has been held back for a number of reasons. In particular, CCS technology costs have increased signifi cantly in the last 5 years. In the absence of suitable fi nancial mechanisms to support CCS, including signifi cant public and private funding for nearterm demonstrations and longer-term integration of CCS into GHG regulatory and incentive schemes, high costs have precluded the initiation of large-scale CCS projects. The regulatory framework necessary to support CCS projects also needs to be further developed. Despite important progress, especially in relation to international marine protection treaties, no country has yet developed the comprehensive, detailed legal and regulatory framework that is necessary effectively to govern the use of CCS. CCS is also poorly understood by the general public. As a result, there is a general lack of public support for CCS as compared to several other GHG mitigation options. This report attempts to address some of these issues by collecting the best global information about the cost and performance of CO2 capture, transport and storage technologies throughout the CCS project chain. Chapters 1-4 contain this information, and use it to conduct a scenario analysis of the role of CCS in climate change mitigation. Chapter 5 discusses the fi nancial incentive mechanisms that governments can use to provide both short- and long-term incentives for CCS. This chapter also contains an expansion and update of the 2007 IEA publication Legal Aspects of CO2 Storage: Updates and Recommendations and examines the current state of public awareness and acceptance of the relevant technologies. Chapter 6 includes a review of the status of CCS policies, research and demonstration programmes, and CO2 storage prospects for several regions and countries. Chapter 7 concludes with a proposed CCS roadmap that includes the necessary technical, political, fi nancial and international collaboration activities to enable CCS to make the contribution it needs to make to global GHG mitigation in the coming decades.

Description / Table of Contents: At their 2007 Summit in Heiligendamm, G8 leaders called on countries to “adopt instruments and measures to significantly increase the share of combined heat and power (CHP) in the generation of electricity.” As a result, energy, economic, environmental and utility regulators are looking for tools and information to understand the potential of CHP and to identify appropriate policies for their national circumstances. This report forms the first part of the response. It includes answers to policy makers’ questions about the potential economic, energy and environmental benefits of an increased policy commitment to CHP. It also includes for the first time integrated IEA data on global CHP installations, and analyses the benefits of increased CHP investment in the G8+5 countries. A companion report will be produced later in 2008 to document best practice policy approaches that have been used to expand the use of CHP in a variety of countries.

Description / Table of Contents: This report explores the vulnerability of heavy industry to carbon leakage and competitiveness loss. It reviews the existing literature on competitiveness and carbon leakage under uneven climate policies. It also suggests a statistical method to track carbon leakage, and applies this methodology to Phase I of the EU emissions trading scheme, for various industrial activities: iron and steel, cement, aluminium and refineries. Finally, it reviews measures to mitigate carbon leakage, as discussed in Australia, Canada, Europe, New Zealand and the US.