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  • ddc:600  (37)
  • 551.46  (31)
  • 538.7  (10)
  • English  (78)
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  • 2020-2022  (78)
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-07-26
    Description: Solar wind observations show that geomagnetic storms are mainly driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating or stream interaction regions (C/SIRs). We present a binary classifier that assigns one of these drivers to 7,546 storms between 1930 and 2015 using ground-based geomagnetic field observations only. The input data consists of the long-term stable Hourly Magnetospheric Currents index alongside the corresponding midlatitude geomagnetic observatory time series. This data set provides comprehensive information on the global storm time magnetic disturbance field, particularly its spatial variability, over eight solar cycles. For the first time, we use this information statistically with regard to an automated storm driver identification. Our supervised classification model significantly outperforms unskilled baseline models (78% accuracy with 26[19]% misidentified interplanetary coronal mass ejections [corotating or stream interaction regions]) and delivers plausible driver occurrences with regard to storm intensity and solar cycle phase. Our results can readily be used to advance related studies fundamental to space weather research, for example, studies connecting galactic cosmic ray modulation and geomagnetic disturbances. They are fully reproducible by means of the underlying open-source software (Pick, 2019, http://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.3.2019.003)
    Keywords: 538.7 ; geomagnetic observatory data ; geomagnetic storm drivers ; historical geomagnetic storms ; supervised machine learning
    Language: English
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-07-26
    Description: Baryonic matter in geospace is almost exclusively in a plasma state, with protons (H +) and to some extent ionized helium (He) and oxygen (O) being the dominant ion species. But also other heavier ion species and even molecular ions are present in geospace. The Research with Adaptive Particle Imaging Detectors (RAPID) on board the Cluster satellites can identify and characterize some of these ions by utilizing their measured time of flight and energy. Usually, the measurements are then assigned into three discrete species channels; protons (H +), helium (He), and a common channel for carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen (CNO), each with flux, energy, and angular information. But RAPID also has a Direct Event (DE) diagnostic mode in which the full time of flight and energy information for a limited number of incident particles are stored. With knowledge about energy losses in the various detector parts, it is then possible to derive the atomic mass of the incident particle. In this paper we report on results from a study of Cluster DE events during the years 2001–2018, with a particular emphasis of iron (Fe) ions. We show that suprathermal Fe ions can be found all over geospace covered by Cluster, and that the time variation is consistent with modulation by geomagnetic disturbances and solar activity. We do not find any clear correlations between detection of suprathermal Fe and meteor showers or sputtering off the moon.
    Keywords: 538.7 ; composition ; ion outflow ; energetic particles
    Language: English
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-07-22
    Description: The Total Exchange Flow analysis framework computes consistent bulk values quantifying the estuarine exchange flow using salinity coordinates since salinity is the main contributor to density in estuaries and the salinity budget is entirely controlled by the exchange flow. For deeper and larger estuaries temperature may contribute equally or even more to the density. That is why we included potential temperature as a second coordinate to the Total Exchange Flow analysis framework, which allows gaining insights in the potential temperature-salinity structure of the exchange flow as well as to compute consistent bulk potential temperature and therefore heat exchange values with the ocean. We applied this theory to the exchange flow of the Persian Gulf, a shallow, semienclosed marginal sea, where dominant evaporation leads to the formation of hypersaline and dense Gulf water. This drives an inverse estuarine circulation which is analyzed with special interest on the seasonal cycle of the exchange flow. The exchange flow of the Persian Gulf is numerically simulated with the General Estuarine Transport Model from 1993 to 2016 and validated against observations. Results show that a clear seasonal cycle exists with stronger exchange flow rates in the first half of the year. Furthermore, the composition of the outflowing water is investigated using passive tracers, which mark different surface waters. The results show that in the first half of the year, most outflowing water comes from the southern coast, while in the second half most water originates from the northwestern region.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; Persian Gulf ; Total Exchange Flow ; inverse estuary ; General Estuarine Transport Model ; estuarine circulation
    Language: English
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-07-26
    Description: Thanks to mapping missions, like Ørsted, CHAMP, and Swarm, we have gained a detailed understanding of the geomagnetic field. High-resolution models like POMME, GRIMM, or CHAOS are able to describe the main parts of the Earth's magnetic field reliably. These models represent well contributions from the core and crustal fields. But their validity of describing magnetospheric field effects is limited to low activity periods (Kp ~ 0–2). Here, we study the differences between CHAMP magnetic observations and the predictions from CHAOS-6-x9, a recent version, outside this validity range. Systematic residuals appear at times of elevated activity. Mean amplitudes at the equator grow up to 12 nT around 20 hr magnetic local time for magnetic activity around Kp = 4.7. Negative residuals are obtained in the evening to midnight sector and positive ones in the morning. A seasonal dependence of the magnetospheric currents causes more negative deflections of the residuals in the winter than in the summer hemisphere. This hemispheric asymmetry cannot be accounted for by a degree 1 spherical harmonics function. A surprising observation is that the residuals show a clear longitude dependent pattern, which changes with local time. The analysis reveals that this feature can be interpreted as a Universal Time dependence of the residuals with a peak-to-peak amplitude of about 8 nT and a period of 12 hr at an activity level of Kp = 4.7. All these results call for a better parameterization of the magnetospheric current effects in a geomagnetic field model that is reliable at least up to moderate activity levels.
    Keywords: 538.7 ; geomagnetic field ; geomagnetic field model ; magnetospheric currents ; ring current ; near-Earth magnetic effect
    Language: English
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-07-26
    Description: Paleomagnetic records from sediments, archeological artifacts, and lava flows provide the foundation for studying geomagnetic field changes over 0–100 ka. Late Quaternary time-varying spherical harmonic models for 0–100 ka produce a global view used to evaluate new data records, study the paleomagnetic secular variation on centennial to multimillennial timescales, and investigate extreme regional or global events such as the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion. Recent modeling results (GGF100k and LSMOD.2) are compared to previous studies based on regional or global stacks and averages of relative geomagnetic paleointensity variations. Time-averaged field structure is similar on Holocene, 100 ky, and million-year timescales. Paleosecular variation activity varies greatly over 0–100 ka, with large changes in field strength and significant morphological changes that are especially evident when field strength is low. GGF100k exhibits a factor of 4 variation in geomagnetic axial dipole moment, and higher-resolution models suggest that much larger changes are likely during global excursions. There is some suggestion of recurrent field states resembling the present-day South Atlantic Anomaly, but these are not linked to initiation or evolution of excursions. Several properties used to characterize numerical dynamo simulations as “Earth-like” are evaluated and, in future, improved models may yet reveal systematic changes linked to the onset of geomagnetic excursions. Modeling results are useful in applications ranging from ground truth and data assimilation in geodynamo simulations to providing geochronological constraints and modeling the influence of geomagnetic variations on cosmogenic isotope production rates.
    Keywords: 538.7 ; Holocene ; paleomagnetic records ; geomagnetic field variations
    Language: English
    Type: article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2021-07-24
    Description: Substantial changes have occurred in the Arctic Ocean in the last decades. Not only sea ice has retreated significantly, but also the ocean at middepth showed a warming tendency. By using simulations we identified a mechanism that intensifies the upward trend in ocean heat supply to the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait. The reduction in sea ice export through Fram Strait induced by Arctic sea ice decline increases the salinity in the Greenland Sea, which lowers the sea surface height and strengthens the cyclonic gyre circulation in the Nordic Seas. The Atlantic Water volume transport to the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean is consequently strengthened. This enhances the warming trend of the Arctic Atlantic Water layer, potentially contributing to the Arctic “Atlantification.” Our study suggests that the Nordic Seas can play the role of a switchyard to influence the heat budget of the Arctic Ocean.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; Arctic Ocean ; Atlantic Water ; sea ice decline ; Nordic Seas ; Greenland Sea ; Atlantification
    Language: English
    Type: article
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2021-07-23
    Description: The hydrodynamics in estuaries is mainly governed by the competition between a horizontal density gradient, friction, and wind stress. The sensitivity of the estuarine exchange flow to the wind stress increases in the absence of tides, which is investigated here using the example of the weakly tidal Warnow river estuary in the southwestern Baltic Sea—the mouth of which is characterized by strongly varying salinities of 8 to 20 g kg−1. The interaction between a volatile salinity gradient and along-estuary wind forcing is found to cause temporary inversions of the estuarine circulation. Despite the highly dynamic conditions, the applicability of recent theories for isohaline mixing, using the framework of Total Exchange Flow, and the strength of the exchange flow, using a non-dimensional parameter space, could be confirmed. By analyzing salinity fluxes at the mouth of the estuary, a mixing completeness of 84% was calculated for the estuary. Furthermore, inversion of estuarine circulation was typically found for a local Wedderburn number (ratio of non-dimensional wind stress to non-dimensional horizontal density gradient) exceeding 0.33, indicating a high sensitivity to along-estuary wind.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; estuarine circulation ; salt mixing ; wind straining ; Total Exchange Flow
    Language: English
    Type: article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2021-05-06
    Description: In order to ensure security of supply in a future energy system with a high share of volatile electricity generation, flexibility technologies are needed. Industrial demand-side management ranks as one of the most efficient flexibility options. This paper analyses the effect of the integration of industrial demand-side management through the flexibilisation of aluminium electrolysis and other flexibilities of the electricity system and adjacent sectors. The additional flexibility options include electricity storage, heat storage in district heating networks, controlled charging of electric vehicles, and buffer storage in hydrogen electrolysis. The utilisation of the flexibilities is modelled in different settings with an increasing share of renewable energies, applying a dispatch model. This paper compares which contributions the different flexibilities can make to emission reduction, avoidance of curtailment, and reduction of fuel and CO2 costs, and which circumstances contribute to a decrease or increase of overall emissions with additional flexibilities. The analysis stresses the rising importance of flexibilities in an energy system based on increasing shares of renewable electricity generation, and shows that flexibilities are generally suited to reduce carbon emissions. It is presented that the relative contribution towards the reduction of curtailment and costs of flexibilisation of aluminium electrolysis are high, whereby the absolute effect is small compared to the other options due to the limited number of available processes.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: article , doc-type:article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2020-08-03
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: report , doc-type:report
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2021-05-06
    Description: Water and energy are two pivotal areas for future sustainable development, with complex linkages existing between the two sectors. These linkages require special attention in the context of the energy transition. Against this background, this paper analyses the role of water availability in the development of solar thermal and photovoltaic power plants for the case of the Draa Valley in southern Morocco. Located in a semi-arid to arid mountainous area, the Drâa Valley faces high water stress - a situation expected to worsen due to climate change. At the same time, the region has one of the greatest potentials for solar energy in the world. To examine whether limited water availability could accelerate or delay the implementation of solar thermal and photovoltaic power plants, this paper compares regional water availability and demand in the Draa Valley for different scenarios, paying particular attention to potential socio-economic development pathways. The Water Evaluation and Planning System software is applied to allocate the water resources in the study region. The water supply is modelled under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario, while the water demand for the Drâa Valley is modelled for a combination of three socio-economic and two energy scenarios. The climate scenario describes a significant decrease in water availability by 2050, while the socio-economic and energy scenarios show an increase in water demand. The results demonstrate that during a sequence of dry years the reservoirs water availability is reduced and shortages in water supply can result in high levels of unmet demand. If this situation occurs, oasis farming, water for drinking and energy production could compete directly with each other for water resources. The energy scenarios indicate that the use of dry cooling technologies in concentrated solar power and photovoltaic hybrid systems could be one option for reducing competition for the scarce water resources in the region. However, given that energy generation accounts for only a small share of the regional water demand, the results also suggest that socio-economic demand reduction, especially in the agricultural sector, for example by reducing the cultivated area, will most likely become necessary.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: article , doc-type:article
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