ALBERT

Beschreibung: In 2009, the German government launched its "National Development Plan for Electric Mobility" which set the concrete target of having 1 million electric vehicles on the road by 2020. However, there have been hypes around e-mobility before and even if this goal were to be reached, a merely quantitative aim of a certain number of electric vehicles will not suffice to contribute to a more sustainable development in transport. This requires a more comprehensive vision of sustainable e-mobility as a system innovation. Thus, the question addressed in this thesis is: How can we assess - at this critical early stage - whether there is potential for e-mobility developing as a sustainable system innovation? A theoretical framework will be developed for assessing the potential of a wider transition at an early stage by analyzing current patterns of socio-technical co-evolution and embedding these in a wider framework of the structural dynamics involved in transitions. The aim of the analysis is to identify whether 'system-innovative' projects do emerge in the case of Germany/Baden-Württemberg and what patterns (e.g. in terms of specific actor constellations, institutional adjustments etc.) can explain this. It will be shown that the system-innovative potential of this e-mobility niche remains limited, due to the powerful influence of incumbents, conflicting political goals and traditional science approaches. A few more system-innovative activities emerge where powerful actors from outside are involved, who are capable of viewing mobility in a more systemic way (e.g. actors from the public transport or housing sector). It is argued that the role of large demonstration projects is important, but they need to be designed as transdisciplinary research projects from the beginning.

Beschreibung: While sustainability is in danger of being reduced to a meaningless platitude, the brutal fact remains that industrial countries make a disproportionately large and negative impact on the environment. A serious transition to sustainability will require changing people's mindsets and social institutions, in addition to public policies, technologies and business practices. This book presents a path-breaking analysis as well as highly innovative proposals for managing this transition. Emanating from Europe's foremost environmental policy think-tank, it has already stirred up a major new debate in Germany on radical, but feasible, directions in which the governments of industrial societies ought to be moving. The concept of "environmental space" and its ingenious development of indicators for measuring an economy's national and global impact combine with its delineation of concrete policies to give this book its intellectual power and potential political impact.

Beschreibung: Five years after the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, the hesitancy of developed countries is turning out to be the main impediment to implementing an effective policy for sustainable development. Alongside the further development of international environmental regimes, setting up national action plans is necessary to close the action-gap in the North. However, this can only succeed if the action plans include binding objectives that can be monitored and evaluated. Current national strategies for sustainable development only meet this criterion in exceptional cases; in most cases only qualitatively and legally nonbinding objectives are included. In the present paper, a suggestion for a cluster of environmental policy targets is put forth, which - using Germany as an example - establishes the sustainability concept at the national level. Particular emphasis is placed on the normative dimension of target setting.

Beschreibung: Within one decade a fundamental choice will have to be made: Should the energy system follow the historical trends of risky and unsustainable energy use patterns? Or should it take the course towards sustainable development and climate protection, giving top priority to energy efficiency and to a broad mix of renewable energies? Both roads are technically feasible. "Back-casting"-scenarios could help to answer the question, what technological options are available for climate protection and how societal goals can be achieved in a cost-effective way. Lessons learned from world energy scenarios and possible implementation options will be discussed. A case study of the German Parliament ́s Enquete Commission on Sustainable Energy Systems will be taken as illustration. The analysis shows that sustainable energy systems can be financed and that economic growth can be decoupled from absolute levels of non-renewable energy consumption by stepping up energy productivity.

Beschreibung: Holiday travel behavior, individual characteristics of holiday travelers and strategies to change holiday travel behavior are the subjects of this article. From the environmental perspective, the journey to the destinations is the most critical aspect of traveling. Based on a 2003 survey of 1991 German inhabitants, the kilometers traveled and the choice of transportation mode for holiday purposes have been quantified. According to the number of trips and kilometers traveled, four travel groups have been identified. The groups vary according to socio-demographics, psychological factors, number of holiday trips, and travel mode choice. Persons who traveled to more distant destinations also traveled more often and used air travel for more than 60% of their trips. For the other groups, car travel was more important. Correlating the four travel groups with greenhouse gas emissions reveals that the smallest group - the long-haul travelers - was responsible for 80% of the emissions of the whole sample. Income, education, and openness to change were main indicators of individual greenhouse gas emissions. Target group oriented strategies to reduce the environmental impact of holiday mobility are discussed against the background of 84 in-depth interviews conducted with selected representatives of the first survey.

Beschreibung: In the long term, any definition of adequacy consistent with UNFCCC Article 2 will require increased mitigation efforts from almost all countries. Therefore, an expansion of emission limitation commitments will form a central element of any future architecture of the climate regime. This expansion has two elements: deepening of quantitative commitments for Annex B countries and the adoption of commitments for those countries outside of the current limitation regime. This article seeks to provide a more analytical basis for further differentiation among non-Annex I countries. To be both fair and reflective of national circumstances, it is based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate. Altogether, non-Annex I countries were differentiated in four groups, each including countries with similar national circumstances: newly industrialized countries (NICs), rapidly industrializing countries (RIDCs), ‘other developing countries’, and least developed countries (LDCs). Based on the same criteria that were used for differentiating among non-Annex I countries, a set of decision rules was developed to assign mitigation and financial transfer commitments to each group of countries (including Annex I countries). Applying these decision rules results in (strict) reduction commitments for Annex I countries, but also implies quantifiable mitigation obligations for NICs and RIDCs, assisted by financial transfers from the North. Other developing countries are obliged to take qualitative commitments, but quantifiable mitigation commitments for these countries and the LDC group would be not justifiable. As national circumstances in countries evolve over time, the composition of the groups will change according to agreed triggers.

Beschreibung: Oil crisis, water conflicts, declining food security - we hear one report after another about resource scarcity - while with growing populations and huge poverty, nations are demanding their right to development. In the age of globalisation this right cannot be disputed, yet the planet is already exhibiting signs of acute environmental stress. Indians want more roads and Chinese more oil: the struggle over nature will partly shape the crises of the twenty-first century. Clashes over resources, both major and minor, are often the unseen factor behind chaos and violence and it is vital to start thinking about how the distribution of resources can be made more just. This book provides an account of what is involved in the resource conflicts of today and tomorrow. It puts forward perspectives for resource justice and outlines a global economic and environmental policy equally committed to nature and to humanity.

Beschreibung: In this study, the relevance of psychological variables as predictors of the ecological impact of mobility behavior was investigated in relation to infrastructural and sociodemographic variables. The database consisted of a survey of 1991 inhabitants of three large German cities. In standardized interviews attitudinal factors based on the theory of planned behavior, further mobility-related attitude dimensions, sociodemographic and infrastructural characteristics as well as mobility behavior were measured. Based on the behavior measurement the ecological impact of mobility behavior was individually assessed for all participants of the study. In a regression analysis with ecological impact as dependent variable, sociodemographic and psychological variables were the strongest predictors, whereas infrastructural variables were of minor relevance. This result puts findings of other environmental studies into question which indicate that psychological variables only influence intent-oriented behavior, whereas impact-oriented behavior is mainly determined by sociodemographic and household variables. The design of effective intervention programs to reduce the ecological impact of mobility behavior requires knowledge about the determinants of mobility-related ecological impact, which are primarily the use of private motorized modes and the traveled distances. Separate regression analyses for these two variables provided detailed information about starting points to reduce the ecological impact of mobility behavior.

Beschreibung: Scenarios for the future of renewable energy through 2050 are reviewed to explore how much renewable energy is considered possible or desirable and to inform policymaking. Existing policy targets for 2010 and 2020 are also reviewed for comparison. Common indicators are shares of primary energy, electricity, heat, and transport fuels from renewables. Global, Europe-wide, and country-specific scenarios show 10% to 50% shares of primary energy from renewables by 2050. By 2020, many targets and scenarios show 20% to 35% share of electricity from renewables, increasing to the range 50% to 80% by 2050 under the highest scenarios. Carbon-constrained scenarios for stabilization of emissions or atmospheric concentration depict trade-offs between renewables, nuclear power, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) from coal, most with high energy efficiency. Scenario outcomes differ depending on degree of future policy action, fuel prices, carbon prices, technology cost reductions, and aggregate energy demand, with resource constraints mainly for biomass and biofuels.

Beschreibung: The material stocks in the anthroposphere are growing faster than ever due to urbanization and growing per capita use. Owing to the growing potential insecurity of raw material supply the evaluation of resources gains increasing attention. Despite growing utilization of anthropogenic deposits, ‘urban mining’ has not yet sufficiently been supported by specific exploration methods. An exploration method for anthropogenic deposits is proposed and described by application to the copper stocks of Switzerland. The method combines material flow analysis with a bottom‐up analysis of material stocks. The stock composition and temporal characteristics are analysed by surveys and literature analysis. The stock amounts to 269±31 kg capita -1 for the year 2000. The retrospective data are used as parameters to construct a dynamic stock model, which is calibrated by historical trade statistics. The potential for drafting scenarios is discussed. The stock situation in Switzerland is reviewed and compared with that of other regions.

Beschreibung: Because of a growing global energy demand and rising oil prices coal-abundant nations, such as China and the United States, are pursuing the application of technologies which could replace crude oil imports by converting coal to synthetic hydrocarbon fuels - so-called coal-to-liquids (CtL) technologies. The case of CtL is well suited to analyse techno-economic, resources-related, policy-driven and actor-related parameters, which are affecting the market prospects of a technology that eases energy security constraints but is hardly compatible with a progressive climate policy. This paper concentrates on Germany as an example - the European Union (EU)'s largest member state with considerable coal reserves. It shows that in Germany and the EU, CtL is facing rather unfavourable market conditions as high costs and ambitious climate targets offset its energy security advantage.

Beschreibung: Wolfgang Sachs asks who are the winners, and who the losers in climate change? He makes the case that cuts in fossil fuel use are imperative not only to protect the atmosphere but also to protect human rights.

Beschreibung: In the aftermath of the controversy on genetically modified organisms it has become clear that in order to harness new technologies for economic and social benefit, a wide range of social, ethical and regulatory concerns need to be addressed. This document summarises some key results from Nanologue, a project that brought together leading research and opinions on the social, ethical and legal implications of nanotechnology applications (NT) in Europe. The document presents information about the project's findings of "societal aspects of NT", based upon the results from interviews with NT scientists and researchers. Insights gained during the project have been translated into future scenarios as well as into an internet-based support tool for NT researchers and product developers called NanoMeter. The scenarios as well as the NanoMeter are briefly introduced and conclusions drawn.

Beschreibung: The sensitivity of climate phenomena in the low latitudes to enhanced greenhouse conditions is a scientific issue of high relevance to billions of people in the poorest countries of the globe. So far, most studies dealt with individual model results. In the present analysis, we refer to 79 coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations from 12 different climate models under 6 different IPCC scenarios. The basic question is as to what extent various state-of-the-art climate models agree in predicting changes in the main features of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the monsoon climates in South Asia and West Africa. The individual model runs are compared with observational data in order to judge whether the spatio-temporal characteristics of ENSO are well reproduced. The model experiments can be grouped into multi-model ensembles. Thus, climate change signals in the classical index time series, in the principal components and in the time series of interannual variability can be evaluated against the background of internal variability and model uncertainty. There are large differences between the individual model predictions until the end of the 21st century, especially in terms of monsoon rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The majority of the models tends to project La Niña-like anomalies in the SOI and an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation in India and West Africa. However, the response barely exceeds the level of natural variability and the systematic intermodel variations are larger than the impact of different IPCC scenarios. Nonetheless, there is one prominent climate change signal, which stands out from model variations and internal noise: All forced model experiments agree in predicting a substantial warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. This oceanic heating does not necessarily lead to a modification of ENSO towards more frequent El Niño and/or La Niña events. It simply represents a change in the background state of ENSO. Indeed, we did not find convincing multi-model evidence for a modification of the wavelet spectra in terms of ENSO or the monsoons. Some models suggest an intensification of the annual cycle but this signal is fairly model-dependent. Thus, large model uncertainty still exists with respect to the future behaviour of climate in the low latitudes. This has to be taken into account when addressing climate change signals in individual model experiments and ensembles.

Beschreibung: In the discourse about sustainable development, "constant natural capital" is frequently referred to as a criterion for ecological sustainability. But what is "natural capital"? The concept will be analyzed by presenting arguments in favour of using the term and different versions of sustainability (strong and weak). Subsequently, a critique of the "natural capital" concept is brought forward, from an ecological as well as from an economic perspective. Following this critique, the use of material inputs and the material input per unit of service (MIPS) as a measure for the environmental impact potential is suggested. Dematerialisation is understood to be an alternative management rule for sustainability. In conclusion, a change of perspective is proposed. Due to the conceptual and measurement problems associated with the "constant-natural-capital" criterion (which refers to a stock), it seems more reasonable from a scientific as well as from a practical perspective to add flows (i.e. material inputs) to a decision criterion for whether a development is sustainable or not.

Beschreibung: The issue or concept of "sustainable development" entered onto the public and political agenda only relatively recently, and, five years after signing Agenda 21, perceptions of it are still ambiguous. A review of organisational adjustments and of German communications to the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development shows that the German government's level of commitment to Agenda 21 is still low. This view is supported by an assessment of developments, and the Government's poor performance so far, in three institutional indicators. However, there is evidence that some incremental steps towards a sustainability transition are being taken as in some areas of business and industry and local government attitudes are begining to change. In addition, awareness of sustainable development is being raised by the efforts of non‐governmental organisations and the scientific community. Generally though, the lack of institutional reorganisation is the major obstacle to a German sustainability transition. This is an expression of the generally low priority of environmental and global development issues in the aftermath of German unification and the related economic and social problems. The traditional economic paradigm where economic growth is believed to be the precondition for welfare prevails and is considered by a majority of decision‐makers not to be compatible with the sustainability transition.