ALBERT

Note: Contents: Introduction: a blue Arctic -- Ice, the magic crystal -- A brief history of ice on planet Earth -- The modern cycle of ice ages -- The greenhouse effect -- Sea ice meltback begins -- The future of Arctic sea ice the death spiral -- The accelerating effects of Arctic feedbacks -- Arctic methane, a catastrophe in the making -- Strange weather -- The secret life of chimneys -- What's happening to the Antarctic? -- The state of the planet -- A call to arms

Note: Ersch. unregelmäßig , Beiträge teilweise in Englisch

Note: Content: Preface. - 1 IASC Internal Development. - IASC Organization. - IASC Council . - IASC Executive Committee. - IASC Secretariat. - Allen Pope New IASC Executive Secretary. - IASC Secretariat Moves to Iceland. - IASC Future Strategy. - IASC Medal 2017. - 2 IASC Working Groups. - Cross-Cutting Initiatives. - Atmosphere Working Group (AWG). - Cryosphere Working Group (CWG). - Marine Working Group (MWG). - Social and Human Working Group (SHWG). - Terrestrial Working Group (TWG). - 3 Arctic Science Summit Week 2016. - Upcoming ASSWs. - 4 Data and Observations. - Arctic Data Committee (ADC). - Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON). - 5 Partnerships. - Asian Forum for Polar Sciences (AFoPS). - Arctic Council. - 6 Capacity Building. - IASC Fellowship Program. - Overview of Supported Early Career Scientists. - Annex. - Polar Acronyms.

Note: Contents: Who wants to be an Economist? ; 1. Change the Goal ; 2. See the Big Picture ; 3. Nurture Human Nature ; 4. Get Savvy with Systems ; 5. Design to Distribute ; 6. Create to Regenerate ; 7. Be Agnostic about Growth ; We are all Economists now ; Appendix: The Doughnut and its Data

Note: Contents: Fundamentals -- Applications of catastrophe modelling -- The perils in brief -- Building catastrophe models -- Developing a view of risk -- Summary and the future

Note: Contents: Part I: Dynamics of the Green Transition; 1. Introduction; 2. Evolutionary Dynamics of Our Industrial Civilization; 3. Ecomodernization –with ‘Chinese Characteristics’; 4. Sociotechnical Transitions: A Sixth Wave; 5. No Wonder China and India Are Pursuing Green Growth Strategies So Vigorously; 6. Finance Now Playing a Central Role in the Green Shift; 7. Can the China Model Be Utilized by Other Industrializing Countries?; 8. Green Growth Development Strategies, Local Content Requirements and World Trade; 9. Farewell Fossil Fuels; Part II: Sixth Wave Eco- Innovations; 10. Global Population Peaking […] and Urbanizing; 11. Energy That Is Clean, Cheap, Abundant – and Safe; 12. Reframing Renewables as Enhancing Energy Security; 13. The Myths of ‘Renewistan’; 14. Recirculation and Regeneration of Resources (Circular Economy); 15. Food and Fresh Water Production; 16. Energy, Water, Food for Cities: Deploying a Positive Triple Nexus; 17. Eco- Cities of the Future; 18. When Ceres Meets Gaia; Bibliography; Index.

Note: Contents: PART 1: The challenge of long-term democratic governance ; 1 Intertemporal policy-making in advanced democracies ; 2 The presentist bias ; 3 Probing the causes of the presentist bias ; 4 The policy dimensions of the presentist bias ; PART 2: Principles and proposals for improving long-term democratic governance ; 5 Foundations for prudent long-term governance ; 6 Countering the presentist bias ; PART 3: Assessing the options for improving long-term democratic governance ; 7 A constitution for the future ; 8 Committing to a better future ; 9 Insulating decision-making from short-term political pressures ; 10 Enhancing voices for the future ; 11 Advising for a better future ; 12 Designing and embedding a strategic foresight capability ; 13 Creating the political conditions for policy investments ; PART 4: Taking care of tomorrow today ; 14 Towards a better tomorrow ; Appendix ; Bibliography ; Index

Note: Contents: Chapter 1. Water Everywhere and Nowhere ; Chapter 2. Back to Life ; Chapter 3. Put Watersheds to Work ; Chapter 4. Make Room for Floods ; Chapter 5. Bank It for a Dry Day ; Chapter 6. Fill the Earth ; Chapter 7. Conserve in the City ; Chapter 8. Clean It Up ; Chapter 9. Close the Loop ; Chapter 10. Let It Flow ; Chapter 11. Rescue Desert Rivers ; Chapter 12. Share

Note: Contents: Foreword ; Executive summary ; Acknowledgements ; Chapter 1 The global outlook ; Chapter 2 Tracking clean energy progress ; Chapter 3 Accelerating the transition to sustainable buildings ; Chapter 4 Advancing the low-carbon transition in industry ; Chapter 5 Steering transport towards sustainability ; Chapter 6 Transforming electricity systems ; Chapter 7 Delivering sustainable bioenergy ; Chapter 8 Unlocking the potential of carbon capture and storage ; Annex A Analytical approach ; Annex B Abbreviations and acronyms ; Annex C Definitions, regional and country groupings and units ; Annex D List of figures, tables and boxes

Note: Contents: 1: Introduction ; 2: Framework ; 3: Traditional topics ; 4: Constrained credit ; 5: Net worth ; 6: Real estate ; 7: Commerical banks ; 8: Methods

Note: Contents: 1 Reforming the EU ETS: Where are we now? ; 2 Agreeing on the EU ETS price floor to foster solidarity, subsidiarity, and efficiency in the EU ; 3 Under pressure: European Electricity Markets and the Need for Reform ; 4 Reforming the EU energy tax directive: assessing the options ; 5 On the coherence of economic instruments: climate, renewables, and energy efficiency policies ; 6 Fiscal and regulatory instruments for clean technology development in the European Union ; 7 Lessons from the U.S. shale gas boom ; 8 Tax and regulatory policies for European transport: getting ther, but in the slow lane ; 9 Carbon pricing and taxation: overcoming obstacles to policy reform in the EU

Note: Contents: Introduction ; Part 1 - Political Psychology ; 1 Understanding beliefs ; 2 The drunkyard's search ; Part 2 - Heuristics and Biases ; 3 Representativeness, foreign policy judgements, and theory-driven perceptions ; 4 Prospect theory: the political implication of loss aversion ; Part 3 - Political Psychology and International Relation Theory ; 5 Signaling and perception: projecting images and drawing inferences ; 6 Political psychology research and theory: bridges and barriers ; 7 Why intelligence and policymakers clash ; 8 Identit and the Colt War ; Part 4 - Psychology and National Security ; 9 Deterrence and perception ; 10 Psychology and crisis stability ; 11 Domino beliefs ; 12 Perception, misperception, and the end of the Cold War ; Index

Note: Introduction.- Spectral Analysis of Deterministic Process.- Structural Dynamics.- Spectral Analysis of Stationary Stochastic Process.- Stochastic Structural Dynamics.- Ambient Data Analysis and Simulation.- Bayesian Inference.- Classical Statistical Inference.- Bayesian OMA Framework.- Single Mode Problem.- Multi-Mode Problem.- Multi-Setup Problem.- Managing identification uncertainty.- Theory of Uncertainty Laws.

Note: Contents -- Chapter 1: Engaging with Environmental Transformation in Oceania -- Chapter 2: Climate Change, Christian Religion and Songs: Revisiting the Noah Story in the Central Pacific -- Chapter 3: Climate Change and Worries over Land: Articulations in the Atoll State of Kiribati -- Chapter 4: Experiencing Environmental Dynamics in Chuuk, Micronesia -- Chapter 5: Young ni-Vanuatu Encounter Climate Change: Reception of Knowledge and New Discourses -- Chapter 6: Whose Beach, Which Nature? Coproducing Coastal Naturecultures and Erosion Control in Aotearoa New Zealand -- Chapter 7: The ``White Magic´´ of Modernity: Retracing Indigenous Environmental Knowledge in Settler-Colonialist Australia -- Chapter 8: Naturally Occurring Asbestos: The Perception of Rocks in the Mountains of New Caledonia -- Chapter 9: Epilogue: Re-building Ships at Sea: Ontological Innovation in Action -- Index

Note: Table of contents Abstract Zusammenfassung Abbreviations and nomenclatureI 1. Introduction 1.1 Scientific background 1.1.1 Permafrost and ground ice 1.1.2 Organic carbon pools and fluxes into the Arctic Ocean 1.1.3 Climate warming and permafrost thaw 1.1.4 Permafrost degradation and coastal erosion 1.1.5 Study area Yukon coast and Qikiqtaruk 1.2 Knowledge gaps 1.3 Aims and objectives 1.4 Thesis structure and author's contribution 2. Eroding permafrost coasts release low amounts of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from ground ice into the nearshore zone of the Arctic Ocean 2.1 Abstract 2.2 Introduction 2.3 Study area 2.4 Methods 2.4.1 Field work 2.4.2 DOC concentration 2.4.3 DOC flux estimation 2.5 Results 2.5.1 Segmentation of the coast - literature synthesis 2.5.2 DOC concentration 2.5.3 DOC stocks and fluxes 2.6 Discussion 2.6.1 DOC concentrations in ground ice 2.6.2 DOC fluxes from the YC 2.6.3 DOC fluxes and the Arctic carbon budget 2.7 Conclusion and Outlook 2.8 Acknowledgements 3.Transformation of terrestrial organic matter along thermokarst-affected permafrost coasts in the Arctic 3.1 Abstract 3.2 Introduction 3.3 Study area 3.3 Methods 3.3.1 Field work 3.3.2 Sedimentology, stratigraphy, and vegetation 3.3.3 Organic matter 3.3.4 Statistics 3.3.5 Transformation of organic matter 3.3.6 Fate of organic matter in the nearshore zone 3.4 Results 3.4.1 Sedimentology, stratigraphy, and vegetation 3.4.2 Organic matter 3.4.3 C/N-ratios and δ13C 3.4.4 Biomarkers 3.5 Discussion 3.5.1 Transformation of organic matter in the disturbed zone 3.5.2 Fate of organic matter in the nearshore zone 3.5.3 Environmental impact of the RTS 3.6 Conclusion 3.7 Acknowledgements 4. Rapid greenhouse gas release from eroding permafrost coasts 4.1 Summary 4.2 Background 4.3 Study site 4.4 Sampling and incubation setup 4.5 Findings and discussion 4.6 Conclusion 4.7 Methods 4.7.1 Incubation conditions 4.7.2 Gas measurements 4.7.3 Geo- and hydrochemical analysis 4.8 Acknowledgements 5. Synthesis 5.1 Mobilization of permafrost OC pools by coastal erosion 5.2 Transformation of permafrost OM on transit from land to sea 5.3 Fate and pathways of permafrost OC in the nearshore zone 5.4 Conclusion and outlook References Appendix I: Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in Arctic ground ice I-1 Abstract I-2 Introduction I-3 Study area and study sites I-4 Material and methods I-4-1 Laboratory analyses I-4-2 Statistical methods I-5 Results I-5-1 DOC and DIC concentrations I-5-2 Correlation matrix I-5-3 Principal components I-5-4 Univariate Tree Model (UTM) I-6 Discussion I-6-1 DOC stocks in ground ice and relevance to carbon cycling I-6-2 Carbon sequestration and origin in relation to inorganic geochemistry I-6-3 DOC mobility and quality upon permafrost degradation I-7 Conclusions and outlook I-8 Acknowledgements Appendix II: Supplementary material for Chapter 2 II-1 Supplementary table - Ground ice and geochemical data II-2 Supplementary table - Coastal segments and DOC flux Appendix III: Supplementary material for Chapter 3 III-1 Normalized Differenced Vegetation Index map III-2 Photograph of a massive ice bed in a RTS III-3 Calculation of biomarker proxies III-4 Supplementary table - Summary of geochemical data III-5 Supplementary table - Summary of statistical analysis AppendixI V: Supplementary material for Chapter 4 IV-1 Design of the incubation experiment IV-2 Photograph of a standard incubation setup IV-3 Conversion of gas amounts into mass IV-4 Total and daily aerobic CH4 production IV-5 Histogram summarizing OC losses and CO2 emissions IV-6 Supplementary table - Summary of TOC, DOC, and pH data IV-7 Supplementary table - Summary of TN, TOC/TN, and δ13C-TOC data IV-8 Supplementary table - Summary of total CO2 and CH4 production data IV-9 Supplementary table - Comparison of incubation setups IV-10 Supplementary table - Summary of daily CO2 production data IV-11 Supplementary table - Summary of daily CH4 production data Acknowledgements-Danksagung

Note: Contents: 1 Business-Cycle Facts Around the World ; 2 An Open Endowment Economy ; 3 An Open Economy with Capital ; 4 The Open Economy Real-Business-Cycle Model ; 5 Business Cycles in Emerging Countries: Productivity Shocks versus Financial Friction ; 6 Interest-Rate Shocks ; 7 Importable Goods, Exportable Goods, and the Terms of Trade ; 8 Nontradable Goods and the Real Exchange Rate ; 9 Nominal Rigidity, Exchange Rates, and Unemployment ; 10 Exchange-Rate Policy and Capital Controls ; 11 Policy Credibility and Balance-of-Payments Crises ; 12 Financial Frictions and Aggregate Instability ; 13 Sovereign Default

Note: Table of contents Abstract Zusammenfassung 1 Motivation 2 Introduction 2.1 Arctic climate changes and their impacts on Coastal processes 2.2 Shoreline retreat along Arctic coasts 2.3 Impacts of Coastal erosion 2.3.1 Material fluxes 2.3.2 Retrogressive thaw slumps 2.3.3 Socio-economic impacts 2.4 Objectives 2.5 Study area 2.6 Thesis structure 2.7 Authors’ contributions 3 Variability in rates of Coastal change along the Yukon coast, 1951 to 2015 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Study Area 3.3 Data and Methods 3.3.1 Remote sensing data 3.3.2 Field survey data 3.3.3 Classification of shoreline 3.3.4 Transect-wise analyses of shoreline movements through time 3.4 Results 3.4.1 Temporal variations in shoreline change rates 3.4.2 Alongshore rates of change 3.4.3 Shoreline dynamics along field sites 3.4.4 Dynamics of lagoons, barrier Islands and spits (gravel features) 3.4.5 Yukon Territory land loss 3.5 Discussion 3.5.1 Temporal variations in shoreline change rates 3.5.2 Alongshore rates of change 3.5.3 Dynamics of lagoons, barrier Islands, and spits (gravel features) 3.5.4 Expected shoreline changes as a consequence of future climate warming 3.6 Conclusions Context 4 Coastal erosion of permafrost Solls along the Yukon Coastal Plain and Kuxes oforganic carbon to the Canadian Beaufort Sea 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Study Area 4.3 Methods 4.3.1 Sample collection and laboratory analyses 4.3.2 Soll organic carbon determinations 4.3.3 Flux of organic soil carbon and Sediments 4.3.4 Fate of the eroded soil organic carbon 4.4 Results 4.4.1 Ground lce 4.4.2 Organic carbon contents 4.4.3 Material fluxes 4.5 Discussion 4.5.1 Ground lce 4.5.2 Organic carbon contents 4.5.3 Material fluxes 4.5.4 Organic carbon in nearshore Sediments 4.6 Conclusion Context 5 Terrain Controls on the occurrence of Coastal retrogressive thaw slumpsalong the Yukon Coast, Canada 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Study Area 5.3 Methods 5.3.1 Mapping of RTSs and landform Classification 5.3.2 Environmental variables 5.3.3 Univariate regression trees 5.4 Results 5.4.1 Characteristics of RTS along the coast 5.4.2 Density and areal coverage od RTSs along the Yukon Coast 5.5 Discussion 5.5.1 Characteristics and distribution of RTSs along the Yukon Coast 5.5.2 Terrain factors explaining RTS occurrence 5.5.3 Coastal processes 5.6 Conclusions Context 6 Impacts of past and fiiture Coastal changes on the Yukon coast - threats forcultural sites, infrastructure and travel routes 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Study Area 6.3 Methods 6.3.1 Data for shoreline projections 6.3.2 Shoreline projection for the conservative scenario (S1) 6.3.3 Shoreline Projection for the dynamic scenario (S2) 6.3.4 Positioning and characterizing of cultural sites 6.3.5 Calculation of losses under the S1 and S2 scenarios 6.3.6 Estimation of future dynamics in very dynamic areas 6.4 Results and discussion 6.4.1 Past and future shoreline change rates 6.4.2 Cultural sites 6.4.3 Infrastructure and travel routes 6.5 Conclusions 7 Discussion 7.1 The importance of understanding climatic drivers of Coastal changes 7.2 The influence of shoreline change rates on retrogressive thaw slump activity 7.3 On the calculation of carbon fluxes from Coastal erosion along the Yukon coast 7.4 Impacts of present and future Coastal erosion on the natural and human environment 7.5 Synthesis 8 Summary and Conclusions Bibliography Supporting Material Data Set ds01 Table S1 Table S3 Abbreviations and Nomendature Acknowledgements

Note: Contents: Climate Change Adaptation in North America: A Short Review of Priorities ; Climate Adaptation Management in Rural and Urban Areas ; Community Deliberation to Build Local Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation: The Rural Climate Dialogues Program ; A Participatory Process to Design Climate Change Adaptation Measures for the Carmen-Pajonal-Machona Lagoon System in Mexico ; Experimentalist Regional Governance for Climate Change Adaptation: A Canadian Case Study ; The Participative Action Research Approach to Climate Change Adaptation in Atlantic Canadian Coastal Communities ; Recent Harm, Problematic Impacts, and Socially Feasible Adaptation Options to Heatwaves and Heavy Rain Events in New York City ; Climate Change and the Built Environment ; A Critical Discussion on the Roles of Institutions on Ports’ Adaptation to the Impacts Posed by Climate Change ; Beyond Restoration: Planting Coastal Infrastructure ; COREDAR for Cities: Developing a Capacity Building Tool for Sea-Level Rise Risk Communication and Urban Community-Based Adaptation ; Conflicts and Synergies: Adaptation, Resilience and Multi-hazard Mitigation ; A Region Under Threat? Climate Change Impacts, Institutional Change and Response of Local Communities in Coastal Yucatán ; Designing for Future Uncertainties: Comparative Studies of Two Adaptive Strategies in Urban Design in New York and Sweden ; Designing with Risk: Balancing Global Risk and Project Risks ; Coping with Higher Sea Levels and Increased Coastal Flooding in New York City ; Building an Adaptation Tool for Visualizing the Coastal Impacts of Climate Change on Prince Edward Island, Canada ; Information, Communication, Education and Training on Climate Change ; Effective Public Service Communication Networks for Climate Change Adaptation ; Speaking Out or Staying Quiet on Climate Change: Broadcast Meteorologists Influenced by the Need to Be Pithy, Popular and Politically Cautious ; Climate Change, Planning and Health and Examples from Other Regions ; Urban Planning to Prevent Mosquito-Borne Diseases in the Caribbean ; Mental Health Impacts of Droughts: Lessons for the U.S. from Australia ; Linking Science and Policy on Climate Change: The Case of Coquimbo Region, Chile ; Selection Support Framework Fostering Resilience Based on Neighbourhood Typologies ; Final Considerations ; A Cross-Disciplinary Perspective on the Factors Shaping North American Adaptation Research

Note: Contents: TITLE PAGE -- COPYRIGHT PAGE -- CONTENTS -- CONTRIBUTORS -- PREFACE -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- PART I FORCINGS OF CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 1 THE CHANGING EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 1.1. INTRODUCTION -- 1.2. CHANGES IN ENSO PROPERTIES -- 1.3. CHANGES IN ENSO DYNAMICS -- 1.4. CHANGES IN ENSO TELECONNECTIONS AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 1.5. ENSO IN THE FUTURE -- 1.6. SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 2 WEATHER EXTREMES LINKED TO INTERACTION OF THE ARCTIC AND MIDLATITUDES -- 2.1. INTRODUCTION -- 2.2. ARCTIC EFFECTS ON MIDLATITUDE EXTREMES -- 2.3. MIDLATITUDE EFFECTS ON ARCTIC EXTREMES -- 2.4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 3 IMPACT OF AEROSOLS ON REGIONAL CHANGES IN CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 3.1. INTRODUCTION -- 3.2. DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF AEROSOLS ON CLOUDS AND RADIATION -- 3.3. AEROSOL IMPACT ON REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE -- 3.4. Mitigation scenarios for aerosol emissions -- 3.5. AEROSOL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION EXTREMES -- 3.6. FUTURE RESEARCH NEEDS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 4 WEAKENED FLOW, PERSISTENT CIRCULATION, AND PROLONGED WEATHER EXTREMES IN BOREAL SUMMER -- 4.1. INTRODUCTION -- 4.2. RESONANT CIRCULATION REGIMES -- 4.3. REAL EVENTS -- 4.4. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 5 LAND PROCESSES AS THE FORCING OF EXTREMES: A REVIEW -- 5.1. INTRODUCTION -- 5.2. FORCINGS OF LAND PROCESSES ON CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 5.3. SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- PART II PROCESSES OF CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 6 TIMING OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMERGENCE IN CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 6.1. INTRODUCTION -- 6.2. DEFINING TIME OF EMERGENCE -- 6.3. DATA AND METHODS -- 6.4. RESULTS -- 6.5. DISCUSSION -- 6.6. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES CHAPTER 7 RECENT INCREASES IN EXTREME TEMPERATURE OCCURRENCE OVER LAND -- 7.1. INTRODUCTION -- 7.2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY -- 7.3. RESULTS -- 7.4. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 8 WHY FUTURE SHIFTS IN TROPICAL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SMALL: THE LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL RAIN BELT AND THE HEMISPHERIC CONTRAST OF ENERGY INPUT TO THE ATMOSPHERE -- 8.1. INTRODUCTION -- 8.2. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ITCZ POSITION AND HEMISPHERIC CONTRAST OF ATMOSPHERIC HEATING -- 8.3. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SEASONAL CYCLE OF ITCZ MIGRATION AND THE ANNUAL MEAN PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION -- 8.4. IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE ITCZ SHIFTS UNDER GLOBAL WARMING -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 9 WEATHER-CLIMATE INTERACTIONS AND MJO INFLUENCES -- 9.1. INTRODUCTION -- 9.2. THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MJO, BACKGROUND STATE, AND SYNOPTIC WEATHER -- 9.3. A CASE STUDY ON INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION AND EL NIÑO -- 9.4. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MJO AND BREAKING WAVES -- 9.5. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MJO, TROPICAL CYCLONES, AND THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION -- 9.6. SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 10 RECENT CLIMATE EXTREMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEST PACIFIC WARMING MODE -- 10.1. INTRODUCTION -- 10.2. BACKGROUND -- 10.3. DATA AND METHODS -- 10.4. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 11 CONNECTIONS BETWEEN HEAT WAVES AND CIRCUMGLOBAL TELECONNECTION PATTERNS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER -- 11.1. INTRODUCTION -- 11.2. DATA AND METHODS -- 11.3. DISTRIBUTION OF HEAT WAVES -- 11.4. PLANETARY WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAT WAVES -- 11.5. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- PART III REGIONAL CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 12 NORTH AMERICAN DROUGHT AND LINKS TO NORTHERN EURASIA: THE ROLE OF STATIONARY ROSSBY WAVES -- 12.1. INTRODUCTION -- 12.2. REANALYSIS DATA AND THE GEOS-5 AGCM EXPERIMENTS -- 12.3. RESULTS -- 12.4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 13 THE CALIFORNIA DROUGHT: TRENDS AND IMPACTS -- 13.1. INTRODUCTION -- 13.2. THE PROLONGED DROUGHT OF 2012-2016 -- 13.3. ROLE OF ENSO CYCLE -- 13.4. ARCTIC INFLUENCES -- 13.5. DROUGHT IMPACTS ON CALIFORNIA -- 13.6. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 14 OBSERVED TRENDS IN US TORNADO FREQUENCY -- 14.1. INTRODUCTION -- 14.2. STORM DATA TORNADO DATABASE -- 14.3. US TORNADO CLIMATOLOGY -- 14.4. CHANGES IN US TORNADO STATISTICS -- 14.5. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 15 MECHANISMS EXPLAINING RECENT CHANGES IN AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 15.1. INTRODUCTION -- 15.2. AUSTRALIAN RAINFALL EXTREMES OF 2010-2012 -- 15.3. AUSTRALIA'S TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OF 2013 -- 15.4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 16 UNRAVELING EAST AFRICA'S CLIMATE PARADOX -- 16.1. INTRODUCTION -- 16.2. THE NATURE OF THE RECENT EAST AFRICAN LONG RAINS DECLINE -- 16.3. LINKS TO PACIFIC DECADAL VARIABILITY -- 16.4. PHYSICAL CONSIDERATIONS -- 16.5. CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS OF EAST AFRICAN CLIMATE -- 16.6. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 17 A PHYSICAL MODEL FOR EXTREME DROUGHT OVER SOUTHWEST ASIA -- 17.1. INTRODUCTION -- 17.2. PRECIPITATION PATTERNS -- 17.3. SST RELATIONSHIPS -- 17.4. ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS -- 17.5. SUMMARY -- APPENDIX: DATA -- REFERENCES -- PART IV PREDICTION OF CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 18 EXTRATROPICAL PRECURSORS OF THE EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION -- 18.1. INTRODUCTION -- 18.2. OVERVIEW OF PRECURSORS AND THEIR IMPACT ON ENSO -- 18.3. DATA AND DEFINITIONS -- 18.4. EVALUATION OF PRECURSOR VARIABILITY AND COVARIABILITY -- 18.5. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRECURSORS AND ENSO -- 18.6. DIAGNOSING PRECURSORS AS ENSO PREDICTORS -- 18.7. RELATIONSHIP OF EXTRATROPICAL PRECURSORS TO 2014 AND 2015 EL NIñO -- 18.8. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 19 NORTH ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE PREDICTION: UNDERLYING SCIENCE AND AN EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL MODELS -- 19.1. INTRODUCTION -- 19.2. STATISTICALLY BASED SEASONAL HURRICANE OUTLOOK MODELS -- 19.3. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 20 PREDICTING SUBSEASONAL PRECIPITATION VARIATIONS BASED ON THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION -- 20.1. INTRODUCTION -- 20.2. THE MJO INFLUENCE ON THE VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION -- 20.3. FORECASTING THE MJO -- 20.4. THE MJO AND PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIPITATION -- 20.5. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 21 PREDICTION OF SHORT-TERM CLIMATE EXTREMES WITH A MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE -- 21.1. INTRODUCTION -- 21.2. PREDICTION SKILL -- 21.3. PREDICTABILITY -- 21.4. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 22 TOWARD PREDICTING US TORNADOES IN THE LATE 21ST CENTURY -- 22.1. PROJECTING CHANGES IN US TORNADO ACTIVITY USING ENVIRONMENTAL PROXIES -- 22.2. SHORT-TERM TORNADO PREDICTION USING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND APPLICATIONS TO DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING -- 22.3. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- INDEX

Note: Contents: Part One: Value ; Chapter: 1. Introduction to Corporate Finance ; Chapter: 2. How to Calculate Present Values ; Chapter: 3. Valuing Bonds ; Chapter: 4. The Value of Common Stocks ; Chapter: 5. Net Present Value and Other Investment Criteria ; Chapter: 6. Making Investment Decisions with the Net Present Value Rule ; Part Two: Risk ; Chapter: 7. Introduction to Risk and Return ; Chapter: 8. Portfolio Theory and the Capital Asset Pricing Model ; Chapter: 9. Risk and the Cost of Capital ; Part Three: Best Practices in Capital Budgeting ; Chapter: 10. Project Analysis ; Chapter: 11. Investment, Strategy, and Economic Rents ; Chapter: 12. Agency Problems, Compensation, and Performance Measurement ; Part Four: Financing Decisions and Market Efficiency ; Chapter: 13. Efficient Markets and Behavioral Finance ; Chapter: 14. An Overview of Corporate Financing ; Chapter: 15. How Corporations Issue Securities ; Part Five: Payout Policy and Capital Structure ; Chapter: 16. Payout Policy ; Chapter: 17. Does Debt Policy Matter? ; Chapter: 18. How Much Should a Corporation Borrow? ; Chapter: 19. Financing and Valuation ; Part Six: Options ; Chapter: 20. Understanding Options ; Chapter: 21. Valuing Options ; Chapter: 22. Real Options ; Part Seven: Debt Financing ; Chapter: 23. Credit Risk and the Value of Corporate Debt ; Chapter: 24. The Many Different Kinds of Debt ; Chapter: 25. Leasing ; Part Eight: Risk Management ; Chapter: 26. Managing Risk ; Chapter: 27. Managing International Risks ; Part Nine: Financial Planning and Working Capital Management ; Chapter: 28. Financial Analysis ; Chapter: 29. Financial Planning ; Chapter: 30. Working Capital Management ; Part Ten: Mergers, Corporate Control, and Governance ; Chapter: 31. Mergers ; Chapter: 32. Corporate Restructuring ; Chapter: 33. Governance and Corporate Control Around the World ; Part Eleven: Conclusion ; Chapter: 34. Conclusion: What We Do and Do Not Know About Finance

Note: Chapter 1 (Introduction) - New Rules: Old Lessons? -- Chapter 2 - A New Starting Point: ‘Values-up’ not ‘Numbers-down’ -- Chapter 3 - New stories: Frames and Narratives for building public engagement -- Chapter 4 - New social norms: breaking the ‘climate silence’ -- Chapter 5 - New Voices: Shifting the debate from scientific to social reality -- Chapter 6 - New Rules: A Blueprint for public engagement on energy and climate change

Note: Beiträge überwiegend deutsch, teilweise englisch

Note: Contents: Introduction: Entering a New Era of Water Management ; Part I. Abundance ; 1. First Water, Then the World ; 2. Laissez-Faire Metaphysics ; 3. Managing Water for “the People” ; Part II. Scarcity ; 4. America’s Post-colonial Model of Development ; 5. The Space of Scarcity ; Part III. Security ; 6. The Globalization of Normal Water ; 7. Securing the Water-Energy-Food-Climate Nexus ; Part IV. Rethinking the Anthropocene ; 8. The Anthropocene and the Naturalization of Process ; 9. Thinking Ecologically in an Age of Geology ; Conclusion: Water in the Anthropocene

Note: Contents: Introduction ; Chapter 1. Dignity in Homer and Classical Greece ; Chapter 2. Dignity in Roman and Stoic Thought ; Reflection: Dignity in Confucian and Buddhist Thought ; Chapter 3. Dignity After the Fall ; Chapter 4. Islamic Conceptions of Dignity: Historical Trajectories and Paradigms ; Chapter 5. Dignity, Vile Bodies and Nakedness: Giovanni Pico and Giannozzo Manetti ; Reflection: Portraiture, Social Positioning, and Displays of Dignity in Early Modern London ; Chapter 6. Equal Dignity and Rights ; Chapter 7. Human Dignity Before Kant: Denis Diderot's Passionate Person ; Chapter 8. Dignity: Kant's Revolutionary Conception ; Reflection: A Time For Dignity ; Chapter 9. Bourgeois Dignity: Making the Self-Made Man ; Reflection: Taking refuge from history in morality: Marx, Morality, and Dignity ; Chapter 10. Universalizing Dignity in the Nineteenth Century ; Reflection: Why Bioethics isn't Ready for Human Dignity ; Chapter 11. Sympathy and Dignity in Early Africana Philosophy ; Reflection: Death and Dignity in American Law

Note: Contents: INTRODUCTION ; Part 1 ASIA AND THE PACIFIC AT A GLANCE ; Part 2 CLIMATE CHANGE IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: OBSERVATIONS AND PROJECTIONS ; Part 3 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON HUMAN SYSTEMS IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ; CONCLUSION

Note: Contents: 1. Introduction -- 1.1 Why Forecast? -- 1.2 The Informatics Challenge in Forecasting -- 1.3 The Model-Data Loop -- 1.4 Why Bayes? -- 1.5 Models as Scaffolds -- 1.6 Case Studies and Decision Support -- 1.7 Key Concepts -- 1.8 Hands-on Activities -- 2. From Models to Forecasts -- 2.1 The Traditional Modeler's Toolbox -- 2.2 Example: The Logistic Growth Model -- 2.3 Adding Sources of Uncertainty -- 2.4 Thinking Probabilistically -- 2.5 Predictability -- 2.6 Key Concepts -- 2.7 Hands-on Activities -- 3. Data, Large and Small -- 3.1 The Data Cycle and Best Practices -- 3.2 Data Standards and Metadata -- 3.3 Handling Big Data -- 3.4 Key Concepts -- 3.5 Hands-on Activities -- 4. Scientific Workflows and the Informatics of Model-Data Fusion -- 4.1 Transparency, Accountability, and Repeatability -- 4.2 Workflows and Automation -- 4.3 Best Practices for Scientific Computing -- 4.4 Key Concepts -- 4.5 Hands-on Activities -- 5. Introduction to Bayes -- 5.1 Confronting Models with Data -- 5.2 Probability 101 -- 5.3 The Likelihood -- 5.4 Bayes' Theorem -- 5.5 Prior Information -- 5.6 Numerical Methods for Bayes -- 5.7 Evaluating MCMC Output -- 5.8 Key Concepts -- 5.9 Hands-on Activities -- 6. Characterizing Uncertainty -- 6.1 Non-Gaussian Error -- 6.2 Heteroskedasticity -- 6.3 Observation Error -- 6.4 Missing Data and Inverse Modeling -- 6.5 Hierarchical Models and Process Error -- 6.6 Autocorrelation -- 6.7 Key Concepts -- 6.8 Hands-on Activities -- 7. Case Study: Biodiversity, Populations, and Endangered Species -- 7.1 Endangered Species -- 7.2 Biodiversity -- 7.3 Key Concepts -- 7.4 Hands-on Activities -- 8. Latent Variables and State-Space Models -- 8.1 Latent Variables -- 8.2 State Space -- 8.3 Hidden Markov Time-Series Model -- 8.4 Beyond Time -- 8.5 Key Concepts -- 8.6 Hands-on Activities -- 9. Fusing Data Sources -- 9.1 Meta-analysis -- 9.2 Combining Data: Practice, Pitfalls, and Opportunities -- 9.3 Combining Data and Models across Space and Time -- 9.4 Key Concepts -- 9.5 Hands-on Activities -- 10. Case Study: Natural Resources -- 10.1 Fisheries -- 10.2 Case Study: Baltic Salmon -- 10.3 Key Concepts -- 11. Propagating, Analyzing, and Reducing Uncertainty -- 11.1 Sensitivity Analysis -- 11.2 Uncertainty Propagation -- 11.3 Uncertainty Analysis -- 11.4 Tools for Model-Data Feedbacks -- 11.5 Key Concepts -- 11.6 Hands-on Activities -- Appendix A Properties of Means and Variances -- Appendix B Common Variance Approximations -- 12. Case Study: Carbon Cycle -- 12.1 Carbon Cycle Uncertainties -- 12.2 State of the Science -- 12.3 Case Study: Model-Data Feedbacks -- 12.4 Key Concepts -- 12.5 Hands-on Activities -- 13. Data Assimilation 1: Analytical Methods -- 13.1 The Forecast Cycle -- 13.2 Kalman Filter -- 13.3 Extended Kalman Filter -- 13.4 Key Concepts -- 13.5 Hands-on Activities -- 14. Data Assimilation 2: Monte Carlo Methods -- 14.1 Ensemble Filters -- 14.2 Particle Filter -- 14.3 Model Averaging and Reversible Jump MCMC -- 14.4 Generalizing the Forecast Cycle -- 14.5 Key Concepts -- 14.6 Hands-on Activities -- 15. Epidemiology -- 15.1 Theory -- 15.2 Ecological Forecasting -- 15.3 Examples of Epidemiological Forecasting -- 15.4 Case Study: Influenza -- 15.5 Key Concepts -- 16. Assessing Model Performance -- 16.1 Visualization -- 16.2 Basic Model Diagnostics -- 16.3 Model Benchmarks -- 16.4 Data Mining the Residuals -- 16.5 Comparing Model Performance to Simple Statistics -- 16.6 Key Concepts -- 16.7 Hands-on Activities -- 17. Projection and Decision Support -- 17.1 Projections, Predictions, and Forecasting -- 17.2 Decision Support -- 17.3 Key Concepts -- 17.4 Hands-on Activities -- 18. Final Thoughts -- 18.1 Lessons Learned -- 18.2 Future Directions -- References -- Index