ALBERT

Note: Contents: PART 1: The challenge of long-term democratic governance ; 1 Intertemporal policy-making in advanced democracies ; 2 The presentist bias ; 3 Probing the causes of the presentist bias ; 4 The policy dimensions of the presentist bias ; PART 2: Principles and proposals for improving long-term democratic governance ; 5 Foundations for prudent long-term governance ; 6 Countering the presentist bias ; PART 3: Assessing the options for improving long-term democratic governance ; 7 A constitution for the future ; 8 Committing to a better future ; 9 Insulating decision-making from short-term political pressures ; 10 Enhancing voices for the future ; 11 Advising for a better future ; 12 Designing and embedding a strategic foresight capability ; 13 Creating the political conditions for policy investments ; PART 4: Taking care of tomorrow today ; 14 Towards a better tomorrow ; Appendix ; Bibliography ; Index

Note: Content: Preface. - 1 IASC Internal Development. - IASC Organization. - IASC Council . - IASC Executive Committee. - IASC Secretariat. - Allen Pope New IASC Executive Secretary. - IASC Secretariat Moves to Iceland. - IASC Future Strategy. - IASC Medal 2017. - 2 IASC Working Groups. - Cross-Cutting Initiatives. - Atmosphere Working Group (AWG). - Cryosphere Working Group (CWG). - Marine Working Group (MWG). - Social and Human Working Group (SHWG). - Terrestrial Working Group (TWG). - 3 Arctic Science Summit Week 2016. - Upcoming ASSWs. - 4 Data and Observations. - Arctic Data Committee (ADC). - Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON). - 5 Partnerships. - Asian Forum for Polar Sciences (AFoPS). - Arctic Council. - 6 Capacity Building. - IASC Fellowship Program. - Overview of Supported Early Career Scientists. - Annex. - Polar Acronyms.

Note: Contents: Part I: Dynamics of the Green Transition; 1. Introduction; 2. Evolutionary Dynamics of Our Industrial Civilization; 3. Ecomodernization –with ‘Chinese Characteristics’; 4. Sociotechnical Transitions: A Sixth Wave; 5. No Wonder China and India Are Pursuing Green Growth Strategies So Vigorously; 6. Finance Now Playing a Central Role in the Green Shift; 7. Can the China Model Be Utilized by Other Industrializing Countries?; 8. Green Growth Development Strategies, Local Content Requirements and World Trade; 9. Farewell Fossil Fuels; Part II: Sixth Wave Eco- Innovations; 10. Global Population Peaking […] and Urbanizing; 11. Energy That Is Clean, Cheap, Abundant – and Safe; 12. Reframing Renewables as Enhancing Energy Security; 13. The Myths of ‘Renewistan’; 14. Recirculation and Regeneration of Resources (Circular Economy); 15. Food and Fresh Water Production; 16. Energy, Water, Food for Cities: Deploying a Positive Triple Nexus; 17. Eco- Cities of the Future; 18. When Ceres Meets Gaia; Bibliography; Index.

Note: Chapter 1 (Introduction) - New Rules: Old Lessons? -- Chapter 2 - A New Starting Point: ‘Values-up’ not ‘Numbers-down’ -- Chapter 3 - New stories: Frames and Narratives for building public engagement -- Chapter 4 - New social norms: breaking the ‘climate silence’ -- Chapter 5 - New Voices: Shifting the debate from scientific to social reality -- Chapter 6 - New Rules: A Blueprint for public engagement on energy and climate change

Note: Contents: Foreword ; Executive summary ; Acknowledgements ; Chapter 1 The global outlook ; Chapter 2 Tracking clean energy progress ; Chapter 3 Accelerating the transition to sustainable buildings ; Chapter 4 Advancing the low-carbon transition in industry ; Chapter 5 Steering transport towards sustainability ; Chapter 6 Transforming electricity systems ; Chapter 7 Delivering sustainable bioenergy ; Chapter 8 Unlocking the potential of carbon capture and storage ; Annex A Analytical approach ; Annex B Abbreviations and acronyms ; Annex C Definitions, regional and country groupings and units ; Annex D List of figures, tables and boxes

Note: Contents: Lists of figures. - List of contributors. - Preface. - 1. Challenges for ice age dynamics: a dynamical systems perspective / Michel Crucifix, Guillaume Lenoir and Takahito Mitsui. - 2. Tipping points in the climate system / Peter Ditlevsen. - 3. Atmospheric teleconnection patterns / Steven B. Feldstein and Christian L. E. Franzke. - 4. Atmospheric regimes: the link between weather and the large scale circulation / David M. Straus, Franco Molteni and Susanna Corti. - 5. Low-frequency regime transitions and predictability of regimes in a barotropic model / Balu T. Nadiga and Terence J. O'Kane. - 6. Complex network techniques for climatological data analysis / Reik V. Donner, Marc Wiedermann and Jonathan F. Donges. - 7. On inference and validation of causality relations in climate teleconnections / Illia Horenko, Susanne Gerber, Terence J. O'Kane, James S. Risbey and Didier P. Monselesan. - 8. Stochastic climate theory / Georg A. Gottwald, Daan T. Crommelin and Christian L. E. Franzke. - 9. Stochastic subgrid modelling for geophysical and three-dimensional turbulence / Jorgen S. Frederiksen, Vassili Kitsios, Terence J. O'Kane and Meelis J. Zidikheri. - 10. Model error in data assimilation / John Harlim. - 11. Long-term memory in climate: detection, extreme events, and significance of trends / Armin Bunde and Josef Ludescher. - 12. Fractional stochastic models for heavy tailed, and long-range dependent, fluctuations in physical systems / Nicholas W. Watkins. - 13. Modelling spatial extremes using Max-Stable Processes / Mathieu Ribatet. - 14. Extreme value analysis in dynamical systems: two case studies / Tamás Bódai. - Index.

Note: Beiträge überwiegend deutsch, teilweise englisch

Note: Contents: 1 Overview ; 2 The anatomy of climate-related natural disasters ; 3 The rising threat of climate-related natural disasters ; 4 Climate change mitigation ; 5 Climate adaptation and disaster management ; 6 Transforming mindsets, motivation, and politics ; 7 A new development paradigm

Note: Contents: Introduction: Sustainability, Innovative Milieus And Territorial Development ; PART I SUSTAINABLE INNOVATION, GLOBAL ANCHORING OF TERRITORIAL PRODUCTIVE SYSTEMS, AND COMPETITIVENESS 1. The Territories of ‘Sustainable’ Innovation: From Local Milieus to ‘Responsible’ Communication: The Case of Photovoltaics and Sustainable Finance in Western Switzerland ; 2. Innovation in the Sustainable Renovation Sector in Île-De-France ; 3. Border-Crossing Sustainable Innovation Processes – German Knowledge-Intensive Business Services (KIBS) in Green Construction ; 4. Living PlanIT and the Development of the ‘PlanIT Urban Operating System tm’: The Geographies of an Innovation ; 5. The Sustainable Water Campus in Leeuwarden: Towards an Anchoring Milieu or a ‘Hollow Term’? ; PART II SUSTAINABLE INNOVATION TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT ; 6. Bairro Alto Revisited: Sustainable Innovations, Reputation Building and Urban Development ; 7. Innovative Rurban Networks in Rome ; 8. Innovation in Sustainable Tourism Projects in Alpine Resorts ; PART III SUSTAINABLE INNOVATION, ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING AND REGIONAL PRODUCTIVE SYSTEMS ; 9. The Great Basque Transformation Towards Sustainable Innovations ; 10. Atlantic Nautical Network: An Inter-Regional Organizational System to Promote Innovation in Support of Sustainable Development ; 11. From Regional Production System to Regional Innovation System – Evolutional Changes of Suwa Industrial Region in Japan ; Conclusion: Relaunching GREMI: A Scientific Trajectory

Note: Contents: 1. The Politics and Political Economy of Forestland Regimes ; SECTION I: The Origins and Divergences of National Forestland Regimes ; 2. Colonialism and the Transformation of Hinterlands ; 3. Politics of 4. Political Mediation of Land Conflicts in the Hinterlands ; SECTION II: Politics of Institutional Change ; 5. Politics of Institutional Change in India's Forestland Regimes ; 6. Politics of Institutional Change in Tanzania and Mexico ; SECTION III: Policy Differences and Key Lessons ; 7. Public Accountability in Policy- making: Forest- Based Climate Change Mitigation in India, Tanzania, and Mexico ; 8. Conclusion: Toward Social Justice and Enduring Nature Conservation ; Appendix I: Number of People Affected by Forestland Conflicts ; Appendix II: A Sample of Specific Events Related to Forestland Conflicts ; Appendix III: Major Socioeconomic and Political Indicators in Case Study Countries ; Appendix IV: Inequality- Adjusted Human Development Index for Selected Regions ; Appendix V: Statistical Analysis of Forestland Claims in Gujarat, India ; References ; Index

Note: Contents: Who wants to be an Economist? ; 1. Change the Goal ; 2. See the Big Picture ; 3. Nurture Human Nature ; 4. Get Savvy with Systems ; 5. Design to Distribute ; 6. Create to Regenerate ; 7. Be Agnostic about Growth ; We are all Economists now ; Appendix: The Doughnut and its Data

Note: Ersch. unregelmäßig , Beiträge teilweise in Englisch

Note: Contents: 1 Introduction to the Application of Paleoecological Techniques in Estuaries / Kathryn H. Taffs, Krystyna M. Saunders, Kaarina Weckström, Peter A. Gell, and C. Gregory Skilbeck. - PART I ESTARIES AND THEIR MANAGEMENT. - 2 Estuary Form and Function: Implications for Palaeoecological Studies / Peter Scanes, Angus Ferguson, and Jaimie Potts. - 3 Geology and Sedimentary History of Modern Estuaries / C. Gregory Skilbeck, Andrew D. Heap, and Colin D. Woodroffe. - 4 Paleoecological Evidence for Variability and Change in Estuaries: Insights for Management / Krystyna M. Saunders and Peter A. Gell. - PART II CORING AND DATING OF ESTUARINE SEDIMENTS. - 5 Sediment Sampling in Estuaries: Site Selection and Sampling Techniques / C. Gregory Skilbeck, Stacey Trevathan-Tackett, Pemika Apichanangkool, and Peter I. Macreadie. - 6 Some Practical Considerations Regarding the Application of 210Pb and 137Cs Dating to Estuarine Sediments / Thorbjoern Joest Andersen. - 7 Radiocarbon Dating in Estuarine Environments / Jesper Olsen, Philippa Ascough, Bryan C. Lougheed, and Peter Rasmussen. - PART III TECHNIQUES FOR PALAEOENVIRONMENTAL RECONSTRUCTIONS IN ESTUARINES. - 8 Lipid Biomarkers as Organic Geochemical Proxies for the Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction of Estuarine Environments / John K. Volkman and Rienk H. Smittenberg. - 9 C/N ratios and Carbon Isotope Composition of Organic Matter in Estuarine Environments / Melanie J. Leng and Jonathan P. Lewis. - 10 Physical and Chemical Factors to Consider when Studying Historical Contamination and Pollution in Estuaries / Amanda Reichelt-Brushett, Malcolm Clark, and Gavin Birch. - 11 Diatoms as Indicators of Environmental Change in Estuaries / Kathryn H. Taffs, Krystyna M. Saunders, and Brendan Logan. - 12 Dinoflagellate Cysts as Proxies for Holocene Environmental Change in Estuaries: Diversity, Abundance and Morphology / Marianne Ellegaard, Barrie Dale, Kenneth N. Mertens, Vera Pospelova, and Sofia Ribeiro. - 13 Applications of Foraminifera, Testate Amoebae and Tintinnids in Estuarine Palaeoecology / Anupam Ghosh and Helena L. Filipsson. - 14 Ostracods as Recorders of Palaeoenvironmental Change in Estuaries / Jessica M. Reeves. - 15 Application of Molluscan Analyses to the Reconstruction of Past Environmental Conditions in Estuaries / G. Lynn Wingard and Donna Surge. - 16 Corals in Estuarine Environments: Their Response to Environmental Changes and Application in Reconstructing Past Environmental Variability / Francisca Staines-Urías. - 17 Inferring Environmental Change in Estuaries from Plant Macrofossils / John Tibby and Carl D. Sayer. - 18 Applications of Pollen Analysis in Estuarine Systems / Joanna C. Ellison. - PART IV CASE STUDIES. - 19 Palaeo-Environmental Approaches to Reconstructing Sea Level Changes in Estuaries / Brigid V. Morrison and Joanna C. Ellison. - 20 Paleoecology Studies in Chesapeake Bay: A Model System for Understanding Interactions between Climate, Anthropogenic Activities and the Environment / Elizabeth A. Canuel, Grace S. Brush, Thomas M. Cronin, Rowan Lockwood, and Andrew R. Zimmerman. - 21 Paleosalinity Changes in the Río de la Plata Estuary and on the Adjacent Uruguayan Continental Shelf over the Past 1200 Years: An Approach Using Diatoms as a Proxy / Laura Perez, Felipe García-Rodríguez, and Till J.J. Hanebuth. - 22 Application of Paleoecology to Ecosystem Restoration: A Case Study from South Florida’s Estuaries / G. Lynn Wingard. - 23 Paleolimnological History of the Coorong: Identifying the Natural Ecological Character of a Ramsar Wetland in Crisis / Peter A. Gell. - 24 Palaeoenvironmental History of the Baltic Sea: One of the Largest Brackish-water Ecosystems in the World / Kaarina Weckström, Jonathan P. Lewis, Elinor Andrén, Marianne Ellegaard, Peter Rasmussen, and Richard Telford. - Glossary. - Index

Note: Contents: Chapter 1 The Space and Strategy of Demographic Growth ; Chapter 2 Demographic Growth ; Chapter 3 Land, Labor, and Population ; Chapter 4 Toward Order and Efficiency ; Chapter 5 The Populations of Poor Countries ; Chapter 6 The Future ; Major Scientific Journals for Further Reading

Note: Contents: Fundamentals -- Applications of catastrophe modelling -- The perils in brief -- Building catastrophe models -- Developing a view of risk -- Summary and the future

Note: Contents: Introduction PART I CONCEPTS AND GLOBAL ISSUES 1. The Social Dimensions of Climate Change 2. Human needs and sustainable wellbeing 3. Climate capitalism: emissions, inequality, green growth 4. Sustainable wellbeing, necessary emissions and fair burdens PART II TOWARDS ECO-SOCIAL POLICY IN THE RICH WORLD 5. From welfare states to climate mitigation states? 6. Decarbonising the economy and its social consequences 7. Decarbonising consumption: Needs, necessities and eco-social policies 8. Post-growth, redistribution and wellbeing 9. Conclusion: A three-stage transition

Note: Contents: Introduction: The Challenge of Inequality ; I A Brief History Of Inequality ; 1 The Rise of Inequality ; 2 Empires of Inequality ; 3 Up and Down ; II War ; 4 Total War ; 5 The Great Compression ; 6 Preindustrial Warfare and Civil War ; III Revolution ; 7 Communism ; 8 Before Lenin ; IV Collapse ; 9 State Failure and Systems Collapse ; V Plague ; 10 The Black Death ; 11 Pandemics, Famine, and War ; VI Alternatives ; 12 Reform, Recession, and Representation ; 13 Economic Development and Education ; 14 What If ? From History to Counterfactuals ; VII Inequality Redux And The Future Of Leveling ; 15 In Our Time ; 16 What Does the Future Hold? ; Appendix: The Limits of Inequality

Note: Contents: 1: Introduction ; 2: Framework ; 3: Traditional topics ; 4: Constrained credit ; 5: Net worth ; 6: Real estate ; 7: Commerical banks ; 8: Methods

Note: Contents: Chapter 1. The transport sector today ; Chapter 2. Transport demand and CO2 emissions to 2050 ; Chapter 3. International freight ; Chapter 4. International passenger aviation ; Chapter 5. Mobility in cities ; Statistical annex

Note: Contents: 1 Future water use in the Guanting basin under climate change and socio-economic transition ; 2 The geographical setting for integrated water resource management in the Guanting basin ; 3 Regional climate modeling ; 4 Simulation of natural water availability with the eco-hydrological model SWIM ; 5 Quality assessment of SWIM-Guanting simulations ; 6 Regionalization of socio-economic scenarios and adaptation options for the Guanting basin ; 7 Water Quantity Management – the Model WBalMo ; 8 Monitoring of trophic status and phytoplankton in water bodies of the Guanting basin ; 9 Water quality management: modeling of nutrient emissions with MONERIS ; 10 Reservoirs of the Guanting basin ; 11 Impacts and adaptation ; 12 Exploring alternative water distribution rules with behavioral irrigation experiments ; 13 InfoSYS Guanting ; Glossary

Note: Contents: Chapter 1 Introduction: Setting the Stage ; Chapter 2 The Doha Round: Virtuous Circle or Infinite Loop? ; Chapter 3 Why Is the Doha Development Agenda Failing? And What Can Be Done? A Computable General Equilibrium-Game Theoretical Approach ; Chapter 4 Formulas for Failure? Were the Doha Tariff Formulas Too Ambitious for Success? ; Chapter 5 BRIC Agricultural Policies through a WTO Lens ; Chapter 6 Assessing the Potential Cost of a Failed Doha Round ; Chapter 7 Domestic and Trade Policies Affecting the World Cotton Market ; Chapter 8 Food Security Stocks: Economic and Operational Issues ; Chapter 9 Food Security Stocks and the WTO Legal Framework ; Chapter 10 Agricultural Insurance and the WTO ; Chapter 11 A Quantitative Analysis of Trade Policy Responses to Higher World Agricultural Commodity Prices ; Chapter 12 Food Crisis and Export Taxation: The Cost of Noncooperative Trade Policies ; Chapter 13 Conclusion: Which Policy Space in the International Trade Arena Can Support Development and Food Security?

Note: Contents: TITLE PAGE -- COPYRIGHT PAGE -- CONTENTS -- CONTRIBUTORS -- PREFACE -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- PART I FORCINGS OF CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 1 THE CHANGING EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 1.1. INTRODUCTION -- 1.2. CHANGES IN ENSO PROPERTIES -- 1.3. CHANGES IN ENSO DYNAMICS -- 1.4. CHANGES IN ENSO TELECONNECTIONS AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 1.5. ENSO IN THE FUTURE -- 1.6. SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 2 WEATHER EXTREMES LINKED TO INTERACTION OF THE ARCTIC AND MIDLATITUDES -- 2.1. INTRODUCTION -- 2.2. ARCTIC EFFECTS ON MIDLATITUDE EXTREMES -- 2.3. MIDLATITUDE EFFECTS ON ARCTIC EXTREMES -- 2.4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 3 IMPACT OF AEROSOLS ON REGIONAL CHANGES IN CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 3.1. INTRODUCTION -- 3.2. DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF AEROSOLS ON CLOUDS AND RADIATION -- 3.3. AEROSOL IMPACT ON REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE -- 3.4. Mitigation scenarios for aerosol emissions -- 3.5. AEROSOL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION EXTREMES -- 3.6. FUTURE RESEARCH NEEDS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 4 WEAKENED FLOW, PERSISTENT CIRCULATION, AND PROLONGED WEATHER EXTREMES IN BOREAL SUMMER -- 4.1. INTRODUCTION -- 4.2. RESONANT CIRCULATION REGIMES -- 4.3. REAL EVENTS -- 4.4. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 5 LAND PROCESSES AS THE FORCING OF EXTREMES: A REVIEW -- 5.1. INTRODUCTION -- 5.2. FORCINGS OF LAND PROCESSES ON CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 5.3. SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- PART II PROCESSES OF CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 6 TIMING OF ANTHROPOGENIC EMERGENCE IN CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 6.1. INTRODUCTION -- 6.2. DEFINING TIME OF EMERGENCE -- 6.3. DATA AND METHODS -- 6.4. RESULTS -- 6.5. DISCUSSION -- 6.6. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES CHAPTER 7 RECENT INCREASES IN EXTREME TEMPERATURE OCCURRENCE OVER LAND -- 7.1. INTRODUCTION -- 7.2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY -- 7.3. RESULTS -- 7.4. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 8 WHY FUTURE SHIFTS IN TROPICAL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SMALL: THE LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL RAIN BELT AND THE HEMISPHERIC CONTRAST OF ENERGY INPUT TO THE ATMOSPHERE -- 8.1. INTRODUCTION -- 8.2. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ITCZ POSITION AND HEMISPHERIC CONTRAST OF ATMOSPHERIC HEATING -- 8.3. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SEASONAL CYCLE OF ITCZ MIGRATION AND THE ANNUAL MEAN PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION -- 8.4. IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE ITCZ SHIFTS UNDER GLOBAL WARMING -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 9 WEATHER-CLIMATE INTERACTIONS AND MJO INFLUENCES -- 9.1. INTRODUCTION -- 9.2. THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MJO, BACKGROUND STATE, AND SYNOPTIC WEATHER -- 9.3. A CASE STUDY ON INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION AND EL NIÑO -- 9.4. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MJO AND BREAKING WAVES -- 9.5. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE MJO, TROPICAL CYCLONES, AND THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION -- 9.6. SUMMARY -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 10 RECENT CLIMATE EXTREMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEST PACIFIC WARMING MODE -- 10.1. INTRODUCTION -- 10.2. BACKGROUND -- 10.3. DATA AND METHODS -- 10.4. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 11 CONNECTIONS BETWEEN HEAT WAVES AND CIRCUMGLOBAL TELECONNECTION PATTERNS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER -- 11.1. INTRODUCTION -- 11.2. DATA AND METHODS -- 11.3. DISTRIBUTION OF HEAT WAVES -- 11.4. PLANETARY WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAT WAVES -- 11.5. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- PART III REGIONAL CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 12 NORTH AMERICAN DROUGHT AND LINKS TO NORTHERN EURASIA: THE ROLE OF STATIONARY ROSSBY WAVES -- 12.1. INTRODUCTION -- 12.2. REANALYSIS DATA AND THE GEOS-5 AGCM EXPERIMENTS -- 12.3. RESULTS -- 12.4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 13 THE CALIFORNIA DROUGHT: TRENDS AND IMPACTS -- 13.1. INTRODUCTION -- 13.2. THE PROLONGED DROUGHT OF 2012-2016 -- 13.3. ROLE OF ENSO CYCLE -- 13.4. ARCTIC INFLUENCES -- 13.5. DROUGHT IMPACTS ON CALIFORNIA -- 13.6. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 14 OBSERVED TRENDS IN US TORNADO FREQUENCY -- 14.1. INTRODUCTION -- 14.2. STORM DATA TORNADO DATABASE -- 14.3. US TORNADO CLIMATOLOGY -- 14.4. CHANGES IN US TORNADO STATISTICS -- 14.5. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 15 MECHANISMS EXPLAINING RECENT CHANGES IN AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE EXTREMES -- 15.1. INTRODUCTION -- 15.2. AUSTRALIAN RAINFALL EXTREMES OF 2010-2012 -- 15.3. AUSTRALIA'S TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OF 2013 -- 15.4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 16 UNRAVELING EAST AFRICA'S CLIMATE PARADOX -- 16.1. INTRODUCTION -- 16.2. THE NATURE OF THE RECENT EAST AFRICAN LONG RAINS DECLINE -- 16.3. LINKS TO PACIFIC DECADAL VARIABILITY -- 16.4. PHYSICAL CONSIDERATIONS -- 16.5. CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS OF EAST AFRICAN CLIMATE -- 16.6. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 17 A PHYSICAL MODEL FOR EXTREME DROUGHT OVER SOUTHWEST ASIA -- 17.1. INTRODUCTION -- 17.2. PRECIPITATION PATTERNS -- 17.3. SST RELATIONSHIPS -- 17.4. ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS -- 17.5. SUMMARY -- APPENDIX: DATA -- REFERENCES -- PART IV PREDICTION OF CLIMATE EXTREMES -- CHAPTER 18 EXTRATROPICAL PRECURSORS OF THE EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION -- 18.1. INTRODUCTION -- 18.2. OVERVIEW OF PRECURSORS AND THEIR IMPACT ON ENSO -- 18.3. DATA AND DEFINITIONS -- 18.4. EVALUATION OF PRECURSOR VARIABILITY AND COVARIABILITY -- 18.5. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRECURSORS AND ENSO -- 18.6. DIAGNOSING PRECURSORS AS ENSO PREDICTORS -- 18.7. RELATIONSHIP OF EXTRATROPICAL PRECURSORS TO 2014 AND 2015 EL NIñO -- 18.8. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 19 NORTH ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE PREDICTION: UNDERLYING SCIENCE AND AN EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL MODELS -- 19.1. INTRODUCTION -- 19.2. STATISTICALLY BASED SEASONAL HURRICANE OUTLOOK MODELS -- 19.3. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 20 PREDICTING SUBSEASONAL PRECIPITATION VARIATIONS BASED ON THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION -- 20.1. INTRODUCTION -- 20.2. THE MJO INFLUENCE ON THE VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION -- 20.3. FORECASTING THE MJO -- 20.4. THE MJO AND PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIPITATION -- 20.5. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 21 PREDICTION OF SHORT-TERM CLIMATE EXTREMES WITH A MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE -- 21.1. INTRODUCTION -- 21.2. PREDICTION SKILL -- 21.3. PREDICTABILITY -- 21.4. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- REFERENCES -- CHAPTER 22 TOWARD PREDICTING US TORNADOES IN THE LATE 21ST CENTURY -- 22.1. PROJECTING CHANGES IN US TORNADO ACTIVITY USING ENVIRONMENTAL PROXIES -- 22.2. SHORT-TERM TORNADO PREDICTION USING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND APPLICATIONS TO DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING -- 22.3. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- INDEX

Note: Contents: List of contributors. - Preface. - 1 Overview of sea ice growth and properties / Chris Petrich & Hajo Eicken. - 2 Sea ice thickness distribution / Christian Haas. - 3 Snow in the sea-ice system : friend or foe? / Matthew Sturm & Robert A. Massom. - 4 Sea ice and sunlight / Donald K. Perovich. - 5 The sea ice-ocean boundary layer / Miles G. McPhee. - 6 The atmosphere over sea ice / Ola Persson & Timo Vihma. - 7 Sea ice and arctic ocean oceanography / Finlo Cottier, Mike Steele & Frank Nielsen. - 8 Oceanography and sea ice in the southern ocean / Michael P. Meredith & Mark A. Brandon. - 9 Methods of satellite remote sensing of sea ice / Gunnar Spreen & Stefan Kern. - 10 Gaining (and losing) antarctic sea ice : variability, trends and mechanisms / Sharon Stammerjohn & Ted Maksym. - 11 Losing arctic sea ice : observations of the recent decline and the long-term context / Walt N. Meier. - 12 Sea ice in earth system models / Dirk Notz & Cecilia M. Bitz. - 13 Sea ice as a habitat for bacteria, archaea and viruses / Jody W. Deming & R. Eric Collins. - 14 Sea ice as a habitat for primary producers / Kevin R. Arrigo. - 15 Sea ice as a habitat for micrograzers / David A. Caron, Rebecca J. Gast & Marie-Eve Garneau. - 16 Sea ice as a habitat for macrograzers / Bodil A. Bluhm, Kerrie M. Swadling & Rolf Gradinger. - 17 Nutrients, dissolved organic matter and exopolymers in sea ice / Klaus M. Meiners & Christine Michel. - 18 Gases in sea ice / Jean-Louis Tison, Bruno Delille & Stathys Papadimitriou. - 19 Transport and transformation of contaminants in sea ice / Feiyue Wang, Monika Pucko & Gary Stern. - 20 Numerical models of sea ice biogeochemistry / Martin Vancoppenolla & Letizia Tedesco. - 21 Arctic marine mammals and sea ice / Kristin L. Laidre & Eric V. Regehr. - 22 Antarctic marine mammals and sea ice / Marthán N. Bester, Horst Bornemann & Trevor McIntyre. - 23 A feathered perspective : the influence of sea ice on arctic marine birds / Nina J. Karnovsky & Maria V. Gavrilo. - 24 Birds and antarctic sea ice / David Ainley, Eric J. Woehler & Amelie Lescroel. - 25 Sea ice is our beautiful garden : indigenous perspectives on sea ice of sea ice in the arctic / Henry P. Huntington, Shari Gearheard, Lene Kielsen Holm, George Noongwook, Margaret Opie & Joelie Sanguya. - 26 Advances in palaeo sea-ice estimation / Leanne Armand, Alexander Ferry & Amy Leventer. - 27 Ice in subarctic seas / Hermanni Kaartokallio, Mats A. Granskog, Harri Kuosa & Jouni Vainio. - Index.

Note: Contents: Contributors. - Preface. - Acknowledgements. - PART I SETTING THE SCENE. - 1. Introduction: Why Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S)? / Frédéric Vitart, Andrew W. Robertson. - 1 History of Numerical Weather and Climate Forecasting. - 2 Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting. - 3 Recent National and International Efforts on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction. - 4 Structure of This Book. - 2. Weather Forecasting: What Sets the Forecast Skill Horizon? / Zoltan Toth, Roberto Buizza. - 1 Introduction. - 2 The Basics of Numerical Weather Prediction. - 3 The Evolution of NWP Technique. - 4 Enhancement of Predictable signals. - 5 Ensemble Techniques: Brief Introduction. - 6 Expanding the forecast skill Horizon. - 7 Concludmg Remarks: Lessons for S2S Forecasting. - Acknowledgements. - 3. Weather Within Climate: Sub-seasonal Predictability of Tropical Daily Rainfall Characteristics / Vincent Moron, Andrew W. Robertson, Lei Wang. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Data and Methods. - 3 Results. - 4 Discussion and Concluding Remarks. - 4. Identifying Wave Processes Associated With Predictability Across Time Scales: An Empirical Normal Mode Approach / Gilbert Brunet, John Methven. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Partitioning Atmospheric Behavior Using Its Conservation Properties. - 3 The ENM Approach to Observed Data and Models and Its Relevance to S2S Dynamics and Predictability. - 4 Conclusion. - Acknowledgments. - PART II SOURCES OF S2S PREDICTABILITY. - 5. The Madden-Julian Oscillation / Steven J. Woolnough. - 1 Introduction. - 2 The Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index. - 3 Observed MJO Structure. - 4 The Relationship Between the MJO and Tropical and Extratropical Weather. - 5 Theories and Mechanisms for MJO Initiation, Maintenance, and Propagation. - 6 The Representation of the MJO in Weather and Climate Models. - 7 MJO Prediction. - 8 Future Priorities for MJO Research for S2S Prediction. - Acknowledgments. - 6. Extratropical Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Oscillations and Multiple Regimes: The Dynamical Systems View / Michael Ghil, Andreas Groth, Dmitri Kondrashov, Andrew W. Robertson. - 1 Introduction and Motivation. - 2 Multiple Midlatitude Regimes and Low-Frequency Oscillations. - 3 Extratropical Oscillations in the S2S Band. - 4 Low-Order, Data-Driven Modeling, Dynamical Analysis, and Prediction. - 5 Concluding Remarks. - Acknowledgments. - 7. Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections / Hai Lin, Jorgen Frederiksen, David Straus, Christiana Stan. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Tropical Influence on the Extratropical Atmosphere. - 3 Extratropical Influence on the Tropics. - 4 Tropical-Extratropical, Two-Way Interactions. - 5 Summary and Discussion. - Appendix. Technical Matters Relating to Section 4.2. - 8. Land Surface Processes Relevant to Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction / Paul A. Dirmeyer, Pierre Gentine, Michael B. Ek, Gianpaolo Balsamo. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Process of Land-Atmosphere Interaction. - 3 A Brief History of Land-Surface Models. - 4 Predictability and Prediction. - 5 Improving Land-Driven Prediction. - 9. Midlatitude Mesoscale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Its Relevance to S2S Prediction / R. Saravanan, P. Chang. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Data and Models. - 3 Mesoscale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer. - 4 Local Tropospheric Response. - 5 Remote Tropospheric Response. - 6 Impact on Ocean Circulation. - 7 Implications for S2S Prediction. - 8 Summary and Conclusions. - Acknowledgments. - 10. The Role of Sea Ice in Sub-seasonal Predictability / Matthieu Chevallier, François Massonnet, Helge Goessling, Virginie Guémas, Thomas Jung. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Sea Ice in the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System. - 3 Sea Ice Distribution, Seasonality, and Variability. - 4 Sources of Sea Ice Predictability at the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Timescale. - 5 Sea Ice Sub-seasonal to Seasonal - Predictability and Prediction Skill in Models. - 6 Impact of Sea Ice on Sub-seasonal Predictability. - 7 Concluding Remarks. - Acknowledgments. - 11. Sub-seasonal Predictability and the Stratosphere / Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim Garfinkel, Edwin P. Gerber, Peter Hitchcock, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Amanda C. Maycock, Michael Sigmond, Isla Simpson, Seok-Woo Son. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Stratosphere-Troposphere Coup ling in the Tropics. - 3 Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in the Extratropics. - 4 Predictability Related to Extratropical Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling. - 5 Summary and Outlook. - PART Ill S2S MODELING AND FORECASTING. - 12. Forecast System Design, Configuration, and Complexity / Yuhei Takaya. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Requirements and Constraints of the Operational Sub-seasonal Forecast. - 3 Effect of Ensemble Size and Lagged Ensemble. - 4 Real-Time Forecast Configuration. - 5 Reforecast Configuration. - 6 Summary and Concluding Remarks. - Acknowledgments. - 13. Ensemble Generation: The TIGGE and S2S Ensembles / Roberto Buizza. - 1 Global Sub-seasonal and Seasonal Prediction Is an Initial Value Problem. - 2 Ensembles Provide More Complete and Valuable Information Than Single States. - 3 A Brief Introduction to Data Assimilation. - 4 A Brief Introduction to Model Uncertainty Simulation. - 5 An Overview of Operational, Global, Sub-seasonal, and Seasonal Ensembles, and Their Initialization and Generation Methods. - 6 Ensembles: Considerations About Their Future. - 7 Summary and Key Lessons. - 14. GCMs With Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Their MJO Simulations / In-Sik Kang, Min-Seop Ahn, Hiroaki Miura, Aneesh Subramanian. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Global CRM. - 3 Superparameterized GCM. - 4 GCM With Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Scale-Adaptive Convection. - 5 Summary and Conclusion. - Acknowledgments. - 15. Forecast Recalibration and Multimodel Combination / Stefan Siegert, David B. Stephenson. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Statistical Methods for Forecast Recalibration. - 3 Regression Methods. - 4 Forecast Combination. - 5 Concluding Remarks. - Acknowledgments. - 16. Forecast Verification for S2S Timescales / Caio A. S. Coelho, Barbara Brown, Laurie Wilson, Marion Mittermaier, Barbara Casati. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Factors Affecting the Design of Verification Studies. - 3 Observational References. - 4 Review of the Most Common Verification Measures. - 5 Types of S2S Forecasts and Current Verification Practices. - 6 Summary, Challenges, and Recommendations in S2S Verification. - PART IV S2S APPLICATIONS. - 17. Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather Extremes / Frédérik Vitart, Christopher Cunningham, Michael Deflorio, Emanuel Dutra, Laura Ferranti, Brian Golding, Debra Hudson, Charles Jones, Christophe Lavaysse, Joanne Robbins, Michael K. Tippett. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Prediction of Large-Scale, Long-Lasting Extreme Events. - 3 Prediction of Mesoscale Events. - 4 Display and Verification of Sub-seasonal Forecasts of Extreme Events. - 5 Conclusions. - 18. Pilot Experiences in Using Seamless Forecasts for Early Action: The "Ready-Set-Go!" Approach in the Red Cross / Juan Bazo, Roop Singh, Mathieu Destrooper, Erin Coughlan de Perez. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Why Sub-seasonal?. - 3 Case Study: Peru El Niño. - 4 Reflections on the Use of S2S Forecasts. - 5 Conclusions. - 19. Communication and Dissemination of Forecasts and Engaging User Communities / Joanne Robbins, Christopher Cunningham, Rutger Dankers, Matthew Degennaro, Giovanni Dolif, Robyn Duell, Victor Marchezini, Brian Mills, Juan Pablo Sarmiento, Amber Silver, Rachel Trajber, Andrew Watkins. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Sector-Specific Methods and Practices in S2S Forecast Communication, Dissemination, and Engagement. - 3 Guiding principles for improved communication Practices. - 4 Summary and Recommendations for Future Research. - 20. Seamless Prediction of Monsoon Onset and Active/Break Phases / A.