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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Statistical validation of GCM-simulated climates for the U.S. Great Lakes and the C.I.S. Emba and Ural River basins (1992)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 69-80 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hydrology ; global circulation models ; statistics ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Many researchers use outputs from large-scale global circulation models of the atmosphere to assess hydrological and other impacts associated with climate change. However, these models cannot capture all climate variations since the physical processes are imperfectly understood and are poorly represented at smaller regional scales. This paper statistically compares model outputs from the global circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to historical data for the United States' Laurentian Great Lakes and for the Emba and Ural River basins in the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). We use maximum entropy spectral analysis to compare model and data time series, allowing us to both assess statistical predictabilities and to describe the time series in both time and frequency domains. This comparison initiates assessments of the model's representation of the real world and suggests areas of model improvement.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01581676
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    An Investigation of Changes in Rainfall and Temperature Regimes of the Ganga Basin in India (1997)
    Springer
    Water resources management 11 (1997), S. 17-34 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: rainfall regime ; Ganga basin ; weighted regression ; climate change ; trend
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Data from three stations Agra, Dehradun and Dehli, were analyzed for evaluation of changes in rainfall and temperature regimes in the upper and middle parts of the Ganga basin in northern India. Long-term data on monsoon rainfall, the number of rainy days during the monsoon season, and the annual maximum temperature at these stations were included in the analysis. Nonparametric methods were employed to identify trends, if any, in these data. The analysis shows that the total monsoon rainfall and the number of rainy days during the monsoon season are on the decline, whereas the annual maximum temperature is on the rise. These changes are observed to have begun around the second half of the 1960's. The results point towards a possible change in the climatic regime of the Ganga basin that has far-reaching implications for the Indian economy.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1017936123283
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climatic Change Impact on Water Resources in a Systems Perspective (1997)
    Springer
    Water resources management 11 (1997), S. 407-435 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; hydrology ; water management ; water resources
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Global climate change related to natural and anthropogenic processes has been the topic of concern and interest world wide. Despite ongoing research efforts, the climate predictions cannot be rated any better than speculative or possible scenarios whose probability of occurrence is, at the present stage, impossible to assess. One of the most significant impacts of the ‘greenhouse effect’ is anticipated to be on water resources, including different elements of the hydrologic cycle, water supply and demand, regional vulnerability, and water quality. Thus, the impact of climate change appears to be an additional component on top of the large number of existing water-related problems. The existence of the greenhouse effect, the increase of greenhouse gas emissions, and the rise of corresponding concentrations are things that are certain. However, their impacts on hydrology and water management are highly uncertain. In the latter area, one needs information on much smaller spatial and temporal scales than those used in climate studies. The objective of the present paper is to analyze the climate change impact on water resources in a system's perspective, to discuss scientific gaps, and challenge scientific issues. The role of different scales and uncertainties, as well as the hydrological view of global circulation models are also discussed. Our preparedness for probable global (climate) change is reviewed in terms of assessment, planning, design and adaptation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007984001105
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Sensitivity of Hydrological Variables in the Northeast Pond River Watershed, Newfoundland, Canada, Due to Atmospheric Change (1999)
    Springer
    Water resources management 13 (1999), S. 171-188 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; deterministichydrological model ; sub-arctic watershed ; Canada
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Watershed runoff modelling techniques were developed and applied for assessing climatic impacts, and tested for a watershed in the Northeast Pond River basin using atmospheric-change scenarios from a series of hypothetical scenarios. Results of this research strongly suggest that possible changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increases in atmospheric trace-gas concentrations could have major impacts on both the timing and magnitude of runoff and soil moisture in important natural resources areas. Of particular importance are predicted patterns of summer soil-moisture drying that are consistent across the entire range of tested scenarios. The decreases in summer soil moisture range from 10 to 50% for different scenarios. In addition, consistent changes were observed in the timing of runoff – specifically dramatic increases in winter runoff and decreases in summer runoff. These hydrologic results raise the possibility of major environmental and socio-economic difficulties and they will have significant implications for future water-resource planning and management.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008194330621
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate Change and Hydrologic Models: A Review of Existing Gaps and Recent Research Developments (1999)
    Springer
    Water resources management 13 (1999), S. 369-382 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; general circulation models ; hydrological models.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Global atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been developed to simulate the present climate and used to predict future climatic change. While GCMs demonstrate significant skill at the continental and hemispheric spatial scales and incorporate a large proportion of the complexity of the global system, they are inherently unable to represent local subgrid-scale features and dynamics. The existing gap and the methodologies for narrowing the gap between GCMs' ability and the need of hydrological modelers are reviewed in this paper. Following the discussion of the advantages and deficiencies of various methods, the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change are identified.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008190900459
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate Change Adaptation in the U.K. Water Industry: Managers' Perceptions of Past Variability and Future Scenarios (2000)
    Springer
    Water resources management 14 (2000), S. 137-156 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate adaptation ; climate change ; droughtmanagement ; England and Wales water supply
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract In this article, the relationship between U.K. watercompanies' perceptions of past climatic extremes andtheir effect on resilience to future climatic changeis explored. Perceptions and activities related topast and future dry periods was investigated throughinterviews with managers at the ten major English andWelsh water supply/sewerage companies, and severalsmaller, water-only companies. Several of thecompanies report that they have observed a trendtowards drier summers in their regions, and a number of companies say that they have observed a changetowards more intensive rainfall of shorter duration. Recent supply measures in a number of regions havebeen aimed at improving storage and distributionrelated to the perceived change in rainfall intensity.A new requirement to incorporate regional climatechange scenarios in future supply assumptions appearsto have had little impact on planning in the region todate. Many water resource planners believe that thescenarios generated are too aggregated and do notencourage a precautionary approach to planning. Somemanagers believe that records of historical droughtconditions, such as experienced in 1933/1934 or 1995/1996,as worst-case scenarios provide a better basis for planning.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008114231502
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Runoff changes simulated using a rainfall-runoff model (1993)
    Springer
    Water resources management 7 (1993), S. 273-287 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: Sacramento model ; rainfall-runoff ; time series ; precipitation ; air temperature ; evapotranspiration ; runoff changes ; climate change ; soil moisture
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The Sacramento rainfall-runoff model has been used in experiments with 60 year daily series for the Czech part of the Labe River basin; simulations with decreased and/or increased inputs (precipitations, air temperature, evapotranspiration) provide results that could be used to appraise the runoff changes due to climatic warming. Simulations with the modified parameters are used for evaluation of runoff changes caused by landuse changes. For both purposes, the long-term data sets appear to be desirable; it is then possible to take into account ‘accidental’ influences. The simulations also provide, as an output, the water contents in different zones of soil moisture; the relationships among evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and baseflow clearly appear in these results.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00872285
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Sensitivity of reservoir operation performance to climatic change (1996)
    Springer
    Water resources management 10 (1996), S. 463-478 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; reservoir operation ; streamflow generation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The potential impacts of changing climatic conditions on the operational performance of water resource systems was investigated in this paper. A multi-site streamflow generation model was used to synthesize potential monthly flow sequences reflecting two different sets of climatic conditions. The generated data were subsequently employed as input to a reservoir operation model that was used to determine the reservoir response to the inflow resulting from the implementation of the reservoir operating policy. The performance of an example reservoir system, the Shellmouth Reservoir located in the Canadian province of Manitoba, was evaluated and compared for the two sets of conditions. The operational performance was evaluated in terms of the reliability of the system for meeting the three purposes of the actual reservoir. The reservoir performance was determined to be sensitive to the inflow data. The results indicate that climatic change has potentially important implications for the operation of the example reservoir system.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00422550
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources in Central Sweden (2000)
    Springer
    Water resources management 14 (2000), S. 177-189 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; Sweden ; water balance models ; water resources
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract This article describes investigationsinto the effects of climate change on flow regimes oftwenty-five catchments (from 6 to 1293 km2) incentral Sweden. Hydrological responses of fifteenhypothetical climate change scenarios (e.g.combinations of ΔT = +1, +2 and +4 °C andΔP = 0, ± 10%, ± 20%) were simulated by a conceptual monthly water balance model. The results suggest thatall the hypothetical climate change scenarios wouldcause major decreases in winter snow accumulation.Significant increase of winter flow and decrease ofspring and summer runoff were resulted from mostscenarios. Attendant changes in actualevapotranspiration were also examined for all climatechange scenarios. Despite the changes in seasonaldistribution of evapotranspiration, the change inannual total evapotranspiration was relatively smallwith the maximum change of 23% compared with the 76%for mean annual snow water equivalent changes and 52%for mean annual runoff changes. Such hydrologicresults would have significant implications on futurewater resources design and management.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1026502114663
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate Change in the Urals, Russia, Inferred from Borehole Temperature Data (1997)
    Springer
    Studia geophysica et geodaetica 41 (1997), S. 225-246 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1626
    Keywords: climate change ; borehole temperature ; ground and air temperature
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Borehole temperatures in the central and south Urals were analysed for the past ground surface temperature (GST) signal. 31 highquality temperature logs were selected for this purpose and inverted with algorithms based on the generalised least squares theory. The signal to noise ratio was improved by averaging the results of individual borehole inversions. No distinct regional trends were found in the studied region except for some indications of more pronounced warming in the south. The mean GST history (GSTH) was characterised by cooling down to −0.6 °C in the 18th century and subsequent warming to 0.5 °C above the longterm mean at the beginning of this century, and to 1 – 1.5 °C by 1980. The stability of the mean GSTH was tested in dependence on the number of holes used for the averaging. It showed that any subset of 15 holes yielded a GSTH similar to that obtained from the whole set. A surface air temperature (SAT) time series comprising the period 1832 – 1989 was combined from 17 meteorological records. Its least squares warming rate of 1.1 °C per 100 years is somewhat higher than that of the GST (0.7 – 0.8°C/100 years) in the same period.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1023394732365
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