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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate change: some likely multiple impacts in Southern Africa
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Food Policy 19 (1994), S. 165-191 
    Details
    ISSN: 0306-9192
    Keywords: Southern Africa ; climate change ; drought
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Process Engineering, Biotechnology, Nutrition Technology , Economics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0306-9192(94)90068-X
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Statistical validation of GCM-simulated climates for the U.S. Great Lakes and the C.I.S. Emba and Ural River basins (1992)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 69-80 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hydrology ; global circulation models ; statistics ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Many researchers use outputs from large-scale global circulation models of the atmosphere to assess hydrological and other impacts associated with climate change. However, these models cannot capture all climate variations since the physical processes are imperfectly understood and are poorly represented at smaller regional scales. This paper statistically compares model outputs from the global circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to historical data for the United States' Laurentian Great Lakes and for the Emba and Ural River basins in the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). We use maximum entropy spectral analysis to compare model and data time series, allowing us to both assess statistical predictabilities and to describe the time series in both time and frequency domains. This comparison initiates assessments of the model's representation of the real world and suggests areas of model improvement.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01581676
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Assessing Effects of Mitigation Strategies for Global Climate Change with an Intertemporal Model of the U.S. Forest and Agriculture Sectors (1997)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 9 (1997), S. 259-274 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a" least social cost" fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1026409105660
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Assessing effects of mitigation strategies for global climate change with an intertemporal model of the U.S. forest and agriculture sectors (1997)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 9 (1997), S. 259-274 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a “least social cost” fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02441399
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Optimal greenhouse gas emissions under various assessments of climate change ambiguity (1996)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 8 (1996), S. 129-140 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; ambiguity ; optimal control
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The probabilities associated with global warming damage are likely to be continuously revised in the light of new information. Such revisions of probability are the defining characteristic of ambiguity, as opposed to risk. This paper examines how climate change ambiguity may affect optimal greenhouse gas emission strategies, via the decision maker's attitude towards anticipated changes of damage probabilities. Two conceptualizations of ambiguity are distinguished, according to the emphasis placed on the ambiguity of priors or on the ambiguity of news, respectively. It is shown that the way in which ambiguity is viewed and the attitude taken towards it have a substantial influence on the optimal emission trajectory.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00357360
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    An Investigation of Changes in Rainfall and Temperature Regimes of the Ganga Basin in India (1997)
    Springer
    Water resources management 11 (1997), S. 17-34 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: rainfall regime ; Ganga basin ; weighted regression ; climate change ; trend
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Data from three stations Agra, Dehradun and Dehli, were analyzed for evaluation of changes in rainfall and temperature regimes in the upper and middle parts of the Ganga basin in northern India. Long-term data on monsoon rainfall, the number of rainy days during the monsoon season, and the annual maximum temperature at these stations were included in the analysis. Nonparametric methods were employed to identify trends, if any, in these data. The analysis shows that the total monsoon rainfall and the number of rainy days during the monsoon season are on the decline, whereas the annual maximum temperature is on the rise. These changes are observed to have begun around the second half of the 1960's. The results point towards a possible change in the climatic regime of the Ganga basin that has far-reaching implications for the Indian economy.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1017936123283
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climatic Change Impact on Water Resources in a Systems Perspective (1997)
    Springer
    Water resources management 11 (1997), S. 407-435 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; hydrology ; water management ; water resources
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Global climate change related to natural and anthropogenic processes has been the topic of concern and interest world wide. Despite ongoing research efforts, the climate predictions cannot be rated any better than speculative or possible scenarios whose probability of occurrence is, at the present stage, impossible to assess. One of the most significant impacts of the ‘greenhouse effect’ is anticipated to be on water resources, including different elements of the hydrologic cycle, water supply and demand, regional vulnerability, and water quality. Thus, the impact of climate change appears to be an additional component on top of the large number of existing water-related problems. The existence of the greenhouse effect, the increase of greenhouse gas emissions, and the rise of corresponding concentrations are things that are certain. However, their impacts on hydrology and water management are highly uncertain. In the latter area, one needs information on much smaller spatial and temporal scales than those used in climate studies. The objective of the present paper is to analyze the climate change impact on water resources in a system's perspective, to discuss scientific gaps, and challenge scientific issues. The role of different scales and uncertainties, as well as the hydrological view of global circulation models are also discussed. Our preparedness for probable global (climate) change is reviewed in terms of assessment, planning, design and adaptation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007984001105
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Sensitivity of Hydrological Variables in the Northeast Pond River Watershed, Newfoundland, Canada, Due to Atmospheric Change (1999)
    Springer
    Water resources management 13 (1999), S. 171-188 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; deterministichydrological model ; sub-arctic watershed ; Canada
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Watershed runoff modelling techniques were developed and applied for assessing climatic impacts, and tested for a watershed in the Northeast Pond River basin using atmospheric-change scenarios from a series of hypothetical scenarios. Results of this research strongly suggest that possible changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increases in atmospheric trace-gas concentrations could have major impacts on both the timing and magnitude of runoff and soil moisture in important natural resources areas. Of particular importance are predicted patterns of summer soil-moisture drying that are consistent across the entire range of tested scenarios. The decreases in summer soil moisture range from 10 to 50% for different scenarios. In addition, consistent changes were observed in the timing of runoff – specifically dramatic increases in winter runoff and decreases in summer runoff. These hydrologic results raise the possibility of major environmental and socio-economic difficulties and they will have significant implications for future water-resource planning and management.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008194330621
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate Change and Hydrologic Models: A Review of Existing Gaps and Recent Research Developments (1999)
    Springer
    Water resources management 13 (1999), S. 369-382 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; general circulation models ; hydrological models.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Global atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been developed to simulate the present climate and used to predict future climatic change. While GCMs demonstrate significant skill at the continental and hemispheric spatial scales and incorporate a large proportion of the complexity of the global system, they are inherently unable to represent local subgrid-scale features and dynamics. The existing gap and the methodologies for narrowing the gap between GCMs' ability and the need of hydrological modelers are reviewed in this paper. Following the discussion of the advantages and deficiencies of various methods, the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change are identified.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008190900459
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate Change Adaptation in the U.K. Water Industry: Managers' Perceptions of Past Variability and Future Scenarios (2000)
    Springer
    Water resources management 14 (2000), S. 137-156 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate adaptation ; climate change ; droughtmanagement ; England and Wales water supply
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract In this article, the relationship between U.K. watercompanies' perceptions of past climatic extremes andtheir effect on resilience to future climatic changeis explored. Perceptions and activities related topast and future dry periods was investigated throughinterviews with managers at the ten major English andWelsh water supply/sewerage companies, and severalsmaller, water-only companies. Several of thecompanies report that they have observed a trendtowards drier summers in their regions, and a number of companies say that they have observed a changetowards more intensive rainfall of shorter duration. Recent supply measures in a number of regions havebeen aimed at improving storage and distributionrelated to the perceived change in rainfall intensity.A new requirement to incorporate regional climatechange scenarios in future supply assumptions appearsto have had little impact on planning in the region todate. Many water resource planners believe that thescenarios generated are too aggregated and do notencourage a precautionary approach to planning. Somemanagers believe that records of historical droughtconditions, such as experienced in 1933/1934 or 1995/1996,as worst-case scenarios provide a better basis for planning.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008114231502
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