ALBERT

Anmerkung: 1. Introduction 2. Overview of Linear Algebra 3. Univariate Distribution Theory 4. Multivariate Distribution Theory 5. Introduction to Calculus of Variation 6. Introduction to Control Theory 7. Optimal Control Theory 8. Numerical Solutions to Initial Value Problems 9. Numerical Solutions to Boundary Problems 10. Introduction to Semi-Langrangian Advection Methods 11. Introduction to Finite Element Modeling 12. Numerical Modeling of the Sphere 13. Tangent Linear Modeling and Adjoints 14. Observations 15. Non-variational Sequential Data Assimilation Methods 16. Variational Data Assimilation 17. Subcomponents of Variational Data Assimilation 18. Observation of Space Variation Data Assimilation Methods 19. Kalman Filter and Smoother 20. Ensemble-Based Data Asssimilation 21. Non-Gaussian Variational Data Assimilation 22. Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Particle Filter Methods 23. Applications of Data Asssimilation in the Geosciences 24. Solutions to Select Exercise Bibliography Index

Anmerkung: Contents: Contributors. - Preface. - Acknowledgements. - PART I SETTING THE SCENE. - 1. Introduction: Why Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S)? / Frédéric Vitart, Andrew W. Robertson. - 1 History of Numerical Weather and Climate Forecasting. - 2 Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting. - 3 Recent National and International Efforts on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction. - 4 Structure of This Book. - 2. Weather Forecasting: What Sets the Forecast Skill Horizon? / Zoltan Toth, Roberto Buizza. - 1 Introduction. - 2 The Basics of Numerical Weather Prediction. - 3 The Evolution of NWP Technique. - 4 Enhancement of Predictable signals. - 5 Ensemble Techniques: Brief Introduction. - 6 Expanding the forecast skill Horizon. - 7 Concludmg Remarks: Lessons for S2S Forecasting. - Acknowledgements. - 3. Weather Within Climate: Sub-seasonal Predictability of Tropical Daily Rainfall Characteristics / Vincent Moron, Andrew W. Robertson, Lei Wang. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Data and Methods. - 3 Results. - 4 Discussion and Concluding Remarks. - 4. Identifying Wave Processes Associated With Predictability Across Time Scales: An Empirical Normal Mode Approach / Gilbert Brunet, John Methven. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Partitioning Atmospheric Behavior Using Its Conservation Properties. - 3 The ENM Approach to Observed Data and Models and Its Relevance to S2S Dynamics and Predictability. - 4 Conclusion. - Acknowledgments. - PART II SOURCES OF S2S PREDICTABILITY. - 5. The Madden-Julian Oscillation / Steven J. Woolnough. - 1 Introduction. - 2 The Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index. - 3 Observed MJO Structure. - 4 The Relationship Between the MJO and Tropical and Extratropical Weather. - 5 Theories and Mechanisms for MJO Initiation, Maintenance, and Propagation. - 6 The Representation of the MJO in Weather and Climate Models. - 7 MJO Prediction. - 8 Future Priorities for MJO Research for S2S Prediction. - Acknowledgments. - 6. Extratropical Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Oscillations and Multiple Regimes: The Dynamical Systems View / Michael Ghil, Andreas Groth, Dmitri Kondrashov, Andrew W. Robertson. - 1 Introduction and Motivation. - 2 Multiple Midlatitude Regimes and Low-Frequency Oscillations. - 3 Extratropical Oscillations in the S2S Band. - 4 Low-Order, Data-Driven Modeling, Dynamical Analysis, and Prediction. - 5 Concluding Remarks. - Acknowledgments. - 7. Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections / Hai Lin, Jorgen Frederiksen, David Straus, Christiana Stan. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Tropical Influence on the Extratropical Atmosphere. - 3 Extratropical Influence on the Tropics. - 4 Tropical-Extratropical, Two-Way Interactions. - 5 Summary and Discussion. - Appendix. Technical Matters Relating to Section 4.2. - 8. Land Surface Processes Relevant to Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction / Paul A. Dirmeyer, Pierre Gentine, Michael B. Ek, Gianpaolo Balsamo. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Process of Land-Atmosphere Interaction. - 3 A Brief History of Land-Surface Models. - 4 Predictability and Prediction. - 5 Improving Land-Driven Prediction. - 9. Midlatitude Mesoscale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Its Relevance to S2S Prediction / R. Saravanan, P. Chang. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Data and Models. - 3 Mesoscale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer. - 4 Local Tropospheric Response. - 5 Remote Tropospheric Response. - 6 Impact on Ocean Circulation. - 7 Implications for S2S Prediction. - 8 Summary and Conclusions. - Acknowledgments. - 10. The Role of Sea Ice in Sub-seasonal Predictability / Matthieu Chevallier, François Massonnet, Helge Goessling, Virginie Guémas, Thomas Jung. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Sea Ice in the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System. - 3 Sea Ice Distribution, Seasonality, and Variability. - 4 Sources of Sea Ice Predictability at the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Timescale. - 5 Sea Ice Sub-seasonal to Seasonal - Predictability and Prediction Skill in Models. - 6 Impact of Sea Ice on Sub-seasonal Predictability. - 7 Concluding Remarks. - Acknowledgments. - 11. Sub-seasonal Predictability and the Stratosphere / Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim Garfinkel, Edwin P. Gerber, Peter Hitchcock, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Amanda C. Maycock, Michael Sigmond, Isla Simpson, Seok-Woo Son. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Stratosphere-Troposphere Coup ling in the Tropics. - 3 Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in the Extratropics. - 4 Predictability Related to Extratropical Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling. - 5 Summary and Outlook. - PART Ill S2S MODELING AND FORECASTING. - 12. Forecast System Design, Configuration, and Complexity / Yuhei Takaya. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Requirements and Constraints of the Operational Sub-seasonal Forecast. - 3 Effect of Ensemble Size and Lagged Ensemble. - 4 Real-Time Forecast Configuration. - 5 Reforecast Configuration. - 6 Summary and Concluding Remarks. - Acknowledgments. - 13. Ensemble Generation: The TIGGE and S2S Ensembles / Roberto Buizza. - 1 Global Sub-seasonal and Seasonal Prediction Is an Initial Value Problem. - 2 Ensembles Provide More Complete and Valuable Information Than Single States. - 3 A Brief Introduction to Data Assimilation. - 4 A Brief Introduction to Model Uncertainty Simulation. - 5 An Overview of Operational, Global, Sub-seasonal, and Seasonal Ensembles, and Their Initialization and Generation Methods. - 6 Ensembles: Considerations About Their Future. - 7 Summary and Key Lessons. - 14. GCMs With Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Their MJO Simulations / In-Sik Kang, Min-Seop Ahn, Hiroaki Miura, Aneesh Subramanian. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Global CRM. - 3 Superparameterized GCM. - 4 GCM With Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Scale-Adaptive Convection. - 5 Summary and Conclusion. - Acknowledgments. - 15. Forecast Recalibration and Multimodel Combination / Stefan Siegert, David B. Stephenson. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Statistical Methods for Forecast Recalibration. - 3 Regression Methods. - 4 Forecast Combination. - 5 Concluding Remarks. - Acknowledgments. - 16. Forecast Verification for S2S Timescales / Caio A. S. Coelho, Barbara Brown, Laurie Wilson, Marion Mittermaier, Barbara Casati. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Factors Affecting the Design of Verification Studies. - 3 Observational References. - 4 Review of the Most Common Verification Measures. - 5 Types of S2S Forecasts and Current Verification Practices. - 6 Summary, Challenges, and Recommendations in S2S Verification. - PART IV S2S APPLICATIONS. - 17. Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather Extremes / Frédérik Vitart, Christopher Cunningham, Michael Deflorio, Emanuel Dutra, Laura Ferranti, Brian Golding, Debra Hudson, Charles Jones, Christophe Lavaysse, Joanne Robbins, Michael K. Tippett. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Prediction of Large-Scale, Long-Lasting Extreme Events. - 3 Prediction of Mesoscale Events. - 4 Display and Verification of Sub-seasonal Forecasts of Extreme Events. - 5 Conclusions. - 18. Pilot Experiences in Using Seamless Forecasts for Early Action: The "Ready-Set-Go!" Approach in the Red Cross / Juan Bazo, Roop Singh, Mathieu Destrooper, Erin Coughlan de Perez. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Why Sub-seasonal?. - 3 Case Study: Peru El Niño. - 4 Reflections on the Use of S2S Forecasts. - 5 Conclusions. - 19. Communication and Dissemination of Forecasts and Engaging User Communities / Joanne Robbins, Christopher Cunningham, Rutger Dankers, Matthew Degennaro, Giovanni Dolif, Robyn Duell, Victor Marchezini, Brian Mills, Juan Pablo Sarmiento, Amber Silver, Rachel Trajber, Andrew Watkins. - 1 Introduction. - 2 Sector-Specific Methods and Practices in S2S Forecast Communication, Dissemination, and Engagement. - 3 Guiding principles for improved communication Practices. - 4 Summary and Recommendations for Future Research. - 20. Seamless Prediction of Monsoon Onset and Active/Break Phases / A.