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  • 1
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    Different Influences of Two El Niño Types on Low-Level Atmospheric Circulation over the Subtropical Western North Pacific (2019)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-12-31
    Beschreibung: This study focuses on different evolutions of the low-level atmospheric circulations between eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño and central Pacific-II (CP-II) El Niño. The western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) originates from the northern South China Sea for EP El Niño, and moves to the western North Pacific (WNP) afterward. Compared with EP El Niño, the origin of the WNPAC is farther west during CP-II El Niño, with the center over the Indochina Peninsula. Moreover, the WNPAC shows a weaker eastward shift. Such discrepancies are attributed to different evolutions of the cyclonic response over the WNP, which can suppress the convection in the western flank of the anomalous cyclone. The eastward retreat of the anomalous cyclone is significant for EP El Niño, but less evident for CP-II El Niño. These discrepancies are related to zonal evolutions of the increased precipitation over the equatorial Pacific. Following the southward migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), the deep-convection region extends eastward along the equator, reinforcing the atmospheric response to the eastern Pacific warming in EP El Niño. For CP-II El Niño, the atmospheric response is insignificant over the eastern Pacific without warming. Moreover, the meridional migration of the ITCZ can modulate zonal variations of the easterly trade wind and specific humidity as well. Due to the combined effects of the climatological background and atmospheric anomalies, the specific humidity–induced and wind-induced moist enthalpy advection contribute to different shifts of the precipitation center.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0442
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von American Meteorological Society
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
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    The Relationships of Extreme Precipitation and Temperature Events with Ethnographic Reports of Droughts and Floods in Nonindustrial Societies (2019)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-12-31
    Beschreibung: Our broad research goal is to understand how human societies adapt to natural hazards, such as droughts and floods, and how their social and cultural structures are shaped by these events. Here we develop meteorological data of extreme dry, wet, cold, and warm indices relative to 96 largely nonindustrial societies in the worldwide Standard Cross-Cultural Sample to explore how well the meteorological data can be used to hindcast ethnographically reported drought and flood events and the global patterns of extremes. We find that the drought indices that are best at hindcasting ethnographically reported droughts [precipitation minus evaporation (P − E) measures] also tend to overpredict the number of droughts, and therefore we propose a combination of these two indices plus the PDSI as an optimal approach. Some wet precipitation indices (R10S and R20S) are more effective at hindcasting ethnographically reported floods than others. We also calculate the predictability of those extreme indices and use factor analysis to reduce the number of variables so as to discern global patterns. This work highlights the ability to use extreme meteorological indices to fill in gaps in ethnographic records; in the future, this may help us to determine relationships between extreme events and societal response over longer time scales than are otherwise available.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Digitale ISSN: 1948-8335
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von American Meteorological Society
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
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    Impact of Multidecadal Variability in Atlantic SST on Winter Atmospheric Blocking (2019)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-12-31
    Beschreibung: Recent studies have suggested that coherent multidecadal variability exists between North Atlantic atmospheric blocking frequency and the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). However, the role of AMV in modulating blocking variability on multidecadal times scales is not fully understood. This study examines this issue primarily using the NOAA Twentieth Century Reanalysis for 1901–2010. The second mode of the empirical orthogonal function for winter (December–March) atmospheric blocking variability in the North Atlantic exhibits oppositely signed anomalies of blocking frequency over Greenland and the Azores. Furthermore, its principal component time series shows a dominant multidecadal variability lagging AMV by several years. Composite analyses show that this lag is due to the slow evolution of the AMV sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which is likely driven by the ocean circulation. Following the warm phase of AMV, the warm SST anomalies emerge in the western subpolar gyre over 3–7 years. The ocean–atmosphere interaction over these 3–7-yr periods is characterized by the damping of the warm SST anomalies by the surface heat flux anomalies, which in turn reduce the overall meridional gradient of the air temperature and thus weaken the meridional transient eddy heat flux in the lower troposphere. The anomalous transient eddy forcing then shifts the eddy-driven jet equatorward, resulting in enhanced Rossby wave breaking and blocking on the northern flank of the jet over Greenland. The opposite is true with the AMV cold phases but with much shorter lags, as the evolution of SST anomalies differs in the warm and cold phases.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0442
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von American Meteorological Society
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
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    Linking ITCZ Migrations to the AMOC and North Atlantic/Pacific SST Decadal Variability (2019)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-12-31
    Beschreibung: We examine the link between migrations in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). We use a coupled climate model that allows us to integrate over climate noise and assess underlying mechanisms. We use an ensemble of ten 300-yr-long simulations forced by a 50-yr oscillatory North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-derived surface heat flux anomaly in the North Atlantic, and a 4000-yr-long preindustrial control simulation performed with GFDL CM2.1. In both setups, an AMV phase change induced by a change in the AMOC’s cross-equatorial heat transport forces an atmospheric interhemispheric energy imbalance that is compensated by a change in the cross-equatorial atmospheric heat transport due to a meridional ITCZ shift. Such linkages occur on decadal time scales in the ensemble driven by the imposed forcing, and internally on multicentennial time scales in the control. Regional precipitation anomalies differ between the ensemble and the control for a zonally averaged ITCZ shift of similar magnitude, which suggests a dependence on time scale. Our study supports observational evidence of an AMV–ITCZ link in the twentieth century and further links it to the AMOC, whose long-time-scale variability can influence the phasing of ITCZ migrations. In contrast to the AMV, our calculations suggest that the PDO does not drive ITCZ migrations, because the PDO does not modulate the interhemispheric energy balance.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0442
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von American Meteorological Society
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 5
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    A Comparison of Two Methods Using Thorpe Sorting to Estimate Mixing (2019)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-12-31
    Beschreibung: Some high-resolution CTD data collected in the spring of 2017 are analyzed using Thorpe sorting and scale analyses, including both the commonly used “Thorpe scale” method and a lesser-used method that is based on directly estimating the “available overturn potential energy” (AOPE): the difference between potential energies of the raw versus sorted density profiles in a mixing “turbulent patch.” The speed of the profiler varied, so the spatial (vertical) sampling is uneven. A method is developed and described to apply the Thorpe scaling and the AOPE approaches to such unevenly sampled data. The AOPE approach appears to be less sensitive to the (poorly constrained) estimate of the “background” buoyancy frequency N. Although these approaches are typically used to first estimate the dissipation rate εK of turbulent kinetic energy, the real goal is to estimate the diffusivity of density Kρ and hence the net alteration of the density profile by mixing. Two easily measured dimensionless parameters are presented as possible metrics of the “age” or “state” of the mixing patch, which might help to resolve the question of how the total turbulent energy and dissipation are apportioned between kinetic and potential components and hence how much of the measured AOPE ends up changing the background stratification. A speculative example as to how this might work is presented.
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0426
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von American Meteorological Society
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 6
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    A Precipitation-Based Index for Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations (2019)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-12-31
    Beschreibung: Characteristic patterns of precipitation-associated tropical intraseasonal oscillations, including the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO), are identified using local empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data as a function of the day of the year. The explained variances of the EOF analysis show two peaks across the year: one in the middle of the boreal winter corresponding to the MJO and the other in the middle of summer corresponding to the BSISO. Comparing the fractional variance indicates that the BSISO is more coherent than the MJO during the TRMM period. Similar EOF analyses with the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) confirm this result and indicate that the BSISO is less coherent before the TRMM era (1979–98). In contrast, the MJO exhibits much less decadal variability. A precipitation-based index for tropical intraseasonal oscillation (PII) is derived by projecting bandpass-filtered precipitation anomalies to the two leading EOFs as a function of day of the year. A real-time version that approximates the PII is further developed using precipitation anomalies without any bandpass filtering. It is further shown that this real-time PII index may be used to diagnose precipitation in the subseasonal forecasts.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0442
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von American Meteorological Society
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 7
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    Interannual Variability of North American Winter Temperature Extremes and Its Associated Circulation Anomalies in Observations and CMIP5 Simulations (2019)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-12-31
    Beschreibung: The interannual variability of wintertime North American surface temperature extremes and its generation and maintenance are analyzed in this study. The leading mode of the temperature extreme anomalies, revealed by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of December–February mean temperature extreme indices over North America, is characterized by an anomalous center of action over western-central Canada. In association with the leading mode of temperature extreme variability, the large-scale atmospheric circulation features an anomalous Pacific–North American (PNA)-like pattern from the preceding fall to winter, which has important implications for seasonal prediction of North American temperature extremes. A positive PNA pattern leads to more warm and fewer cold extremes over western-central Canada. The anomalous circulation over the PNA sector drives thermal advection that contributes to temperature anomalies over North America, as well as a Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern in the midlatitude North Pacific. The PNA-like circulation anomaly tends to be supported by SST warming in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and a positive synoptic-scale eddy vorticity forcing feedback on the large-scale circulation over the PNA sector. The leading extreme mode–associated atmospheric circulation patterns obtained from the observational and reanalysis data, together with the anomalous SST and synoptic eddy activities, are reasonably well simulated in most CMIP5 models and in the multimodel mean. For most models considered, the simulated patterns of atmospheric circulation, SST, and synoptic eddy activities have lower spatial variances than the corresponding observational and reanalysis patterns over the PNA sector, especially over the North Pacific.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0442
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von American Meteorological Society
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  • 8
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    Investigation of Tipping-Bucket Rain Gauges Using Digital Photographic Technology (2019)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publikationsdatum: 2019-12-27
    Beschreibung: When studying the tipping-bucket rain gauge (TBR), it is rather difficult to make an objective and sophisticated measurement of the duration of bucket rotation. From the perspective of digital photographic technology, however, the problem can be easily solved. The primary interest of this research has been to use digital photographic technology to study the TBR under laboratory conditions. In this study, the interframe difference algorithm and a camera recording device were used. Based on three types of JDZ TBRs, the time variation characteristics of bucket rotation were obtained. The time from the beginning of a tip to the time that the bucket is horizontal T1 and the time for a complete tip T2 were analyzed in detail. The results showed that T1 and T2 were functions of rainfall intensity, and T1 and T2 decrease as the rain intensity increases significantly (P 〈 0.001). Moreover, excellent evidence shows that the averages of T1 and T2 were positively correlated with bucket mass. It took more time for the bucket to tip as the mass of the bucket increased. Furthermore, the error of each TBR was calculated by the new proposed error calculation formula, and the new method was compared with the traditional method. The results from the two methods were very close, which demonstrates the correctness and feasibility of the new formula. However, the traditional calibration cannot acquire the variation characteristics of the tipping time, but the proposed approach can achieve this.
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0426
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von American Meteorological Society
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 9
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    Using Visualization Science to Improve Expert and Public Understanding of Probabilistic Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks (2019)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publikationsdatum: 2019-12-27
    Beschreibung: Visually communicating temperature and precipitation climate outlook graphics is challenging because it requires the viewer to be familiar with probabilities as well as to have the visual literacy to interpret geospatial forecast uncertainty. In addition, the visualization scientific literature has open questions on which visual design choices are the most effective at expressing the multidimensionality of uncertain forecasts, leaving designers with a lack of concrete guidance. Using a two-phase experimental setup, this study shows how recently developed visualization diagnostic guidelines can be used to iteratively diagnose, redesign, and test the understandability the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) climate outlooks. In the first phase, visualization diagnostic guidelines were used in conjunction with interviews and focus groups to identify understandability challenges of existing visual conventions in temperature and precipitation outlooks. Next, in a randomized control versus experimental treatment setup, several graphic modifications were produced and tested via an online survey of end users and the general public. Results show that, overall, end users exhibit a better understanding of outlooks, but some types of probabilistic color mapping are misunderstood by both end users and the general public, which was predicted by the diagnostic guidelines. Modifications lead to significant gains in end-user and general public understanding of climate outlooks, providing additional evidence for the utility of using control versus treatment testing informed by visualization diagnostics.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Digitale ISSN: 1948-8335
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von American Meteorological Society
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 10
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    Spatial Distribution and Seasonality of Halocline Structures in the Subarctic North Pacific (2019)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publikationsdatum: 2019-12-27
    Beschreibung: The spatial distribution and seasonality of halocline structures in the subarctic North Pacific (SNP) were investigated using Argo profiling float data and various surface flux data collected in 2003–17. The permanent halocline (PH) showed zonal patterns in the spatial distributions of its depth and intensity and tended to be shallow and strong in the eastern SNP but deep and weak in the west. Mean distributions of PH depth and intensity corresponded to the winter mixed layer depth and sea surface salinity, respectively, indicating that it forms in association with the development of the winter mixed layer. In the Western Subarctic Gyre and Alaskan Gyre, where a relatively strong PH formed, PH intensity and depth showed clear seasonal variations, and deepening of the mixed layer compressed the underlying PH during the cooling period, resulting in intensification and development of the PH in late winter. In both regions, upwelling of high-salinity water also contributed to PH intensification. The summer seasonal halocline (SH) showed distinct zonal differences in frequency and intensity, which were opposite to the PH distribution. While an SH formed in the western and central SNP and coastal regions, it was seldom present in the eastern area. This zonal contrast of SH corresponded to freshening of the mixed layer during the warming period, primarily reflecting freshwater flux. Geostrophic and Ekman advection play important roles in spatial differences in SH intensity and depth. SH development contributed to PH intensification in the following winter, by decreasing salinity above the PH through entrainment.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0485
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Publiziert von American Meteorological Society
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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