ALBERT

Description: Based on sufficiently investigating characteristics and risk connotation of land subsidence, a risk evaluation index system for land subsidence disaster is established, which is combined with the sensitivity feature of the hazard bearing body to land subsidence. An appropriate evaluation method system is established by using an improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method. So risk evaluation is developed for providing theoretical basis and technical support for the regional management of land subsidence prevention and control. On this basis, as a case of Shanghai metro, firstly, the paper studies the identifying risk sources of the metro. According to metro linear characteristics, external indexes of representing subsidence risk are obtained. Studying the subsidence risk of the metro, relevant achievement has provided the technical basis for daily main monitoring, early warning and work arrangement.

Description: We installed GPS stations for monitoring of land subsidence of Kujukuri Plain in Chiba prefecture in 2003, and have been monitoring since then. In this paper, we discussed a data processing method capable of reducing noise in data collected by the GPS stations. Also, we compare the accuracy of leveling and GPS, and collected basic data for establishing a new monitoring system based on the combination of leveling and GPS.

Description: It is well known that some sinkholes or subsidence take place from time to time in the areas where abandoned room and pillar type mines exist. The author has been involved with the stability of abandoned mines beneath urbanized residential areas in Tokai region and there is a great concern about the stability of these abandoned mines during large earthquakes as well as in the long term. The 2003 Miyagi Hokubu and 2011 Great East Japan earthquakes caused great damage to abandoned mines and resulted in many collapses. The author presents the effect of the depth and groundwater on the formation of sinkholes or ground subsidence associated with abandoned room and pillar lignite mines under static and dynamic conditions and discusses the implications on the areas above abandoned lignite mines in this paper.

Description: Over 40 million people live on and exploit the groundwater resources of the Kanto Plain. The Plain encompasses metropolitan Tokyo and much of Chiba Prefecture. Useable groundwater extends to the base of the Kanto Plain, some 2500 to 3000 m below sea level. Much of the Kanto Plain surface is at sea level. By the early 1970s, with increasing urbanization and industrial expansion, local overdraft of groundwater resources caused major ground subsidence and damage to commercial and residential structures as well as to local and regional infrastructure. Parts of the lowlands around Tokyo subsided to 4.0 m below sea level; particularly affected were the suburbs of Funabashi and Gyotoku in western Chiba. In the southern Kanto Plain, regulations, mainly by local government and later by regional agencies, led to installation of about 500 monitoring wells and almost 5000 bench marks by the 1990's. Many of them are still working with new monitoring system. Long-term monitoring is important. The monitoring systems are costly, but the resulting data provide continuous measurement of the "health" of the Kanto Groundwater Basin, and thus permit sustainable use of the groundwater resource.

Description: Rapid land subsidence was recently measured using multiple methods in two areas of the San Joaquin Valley (SJV): between Merced and Fresno (El Nido), and between Fresno and Bakersfield (Pixley). Recent land-use changes and diminished surface-water availability have led to increased groundwater pumping, groundwater-level declines, and land subsidence. Differential land subsidence has reduced the flow capacity of water-conveyance systems in these areas, exacerbating flood hazards and affecting the delivery of irrigation water. Vertical land-surface changes during 2007–2014 were determined by using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Continuous Global Positioning System (CGPS), and extensometer data. Results of the InSAR analysis indicate that about 7600 km2 subsided 50–540 mm during 2008–2010; CGPS and extensometer data indicate that these rates continued or accelerated through December 2014. The maximum InSAR-measured rate of 270 mm yr−1 occurred in the El Nido area, and is among the largest rates ever measured in the SJV. In the Pixley area, the maximum InSAR-measured rate during 2008–2010 was 90 mm yr−1. Groundwater was an important part of the water supply in both areas, and pumping increased when land use changed or when surface water was less available. This increased pumping caused groundwater-level declines to near or below historical lows during the drought periods 2007–2009 and 2012–present. Long-term groundwater-level and land-subsidence monitoring in the SJV is critical for understanding the interconnection of land use, groundwater levels, and subsidence, and evaluating management strategies that help mitigate subsidence hazards to infrastructure while optimizing water supplies.

Description: Reliable prediction of the induced subsidence resulting from gas production is important for a near sea level country like the Netherlands. Without the protection of dunes, dikes and pumping, large parts of the country would be flooded. The predicted sea-level rise from global warming increases the challenge to design proper mitigation measures. Water management problems from gas production induced subsidence can be prevented if measures to counter its adverse effects are taken timely. This requires reliable subsidence predictions, which is a major challenge. Since the 1960's a number of large, multi-decade gas production projects were started in the Netherlands. Extensive, well-documented subsidence prediction and monitoring technologies were applied. Nevertheless predicted subsidence at the end of the Groningen field production period (for the centre of the bowl) went from 100 cm in 1971 to 77 cm in 1973 and then to 30 cm in 1977. In 1984 the prediction went up again to 65 cm, down to 36 cm in 1990 and then via 38 cm (1995) and 42 cm (2005) to 47 cm in 2010 and 49 cm in 2013. Such changes can have large implications for the planning of water management measures. Until 1991, when the first event was registered, production induced seismicity was not observed nor expected for the Groningen field. Thereafter the number of observed events rose from 5 to 10 per year during the 1990's to well over a hundred in 2013. The anticipated maximum likely magnitude rose from an initial value of less than 3.0 to a value of 3.3 in 1993 and then to 3.9 in 2006. The strongest tremor to date occurred near the village of Huizinge in August 2012. It had a magnitude of 3.6, caused significant damage and triggered the regulator into an independent investigation. Late 2012 it became clear that significantly larger magnitudes cannot be excluded and that values up to magnitude 5.0 cannot be ruled out. As a consequence the regulator advised early 2013 to lower Groningen gas production by as much and as fast as realistically possible. Before taking such a decision, the Minister of Economic Affairs requested further studies. The results became available early 2014 and led to the government decision to lower gas production in the earthquake prone central area of the field by 80 % for the next three~years. In addition further investigations and a program to strengthen houses and infrastructure were started. Important lessons have been learned from the studies carried out to date. It is now realised that uncertainties in predicted subsidence and seismicity are much larger than previously recognised. Compaction, subsidence and seismicity are strongly interlinked and relate in a non-linear way to production and pressure drop. The latest studies by the operator suggest that seismic hazard in Groningen is largely determined by tremors with magnitudes between 4.5 and 5.0 even at an annual probability of occurrence of less than 1 %. And that subsidence in 2080 in the centre of the bowl could be anywhere between 50 and 70 cm. Initial evaluations by the regulator indicate similar numbers and suggest that the present seismic risk is comparable to Dutch flooding risks. Different models and parameters can be used to describe the subsidence and seismicity observed so far. The choice of compaction and seismicity models and their parameters has a large impact on the calculated future subsidence (rates), seismic activity and on the predicted response to changes in gas production. In addition there are considerable uncertainties in the ground motions resulting from an earthquake of a given magnitude and in the expected response of buildings and infrastructure. As a result uncertainties in subsidence and seismicity become very large for periods more than three to five years into the future. To counter this a control loop based on interactive modelling, measurements and repeated calibration will be used. Over the coming years, the effect of the production reduction in the centre of the field on subsidence and seismicity will be studied in detail in an effort to improve understanding and thereby reduce prediction uncertainties. First indications are that the reduction has led to a drop in subsidence rate and seismicity within a period of a few months. This suggests that the system can be controlled and regulated. If this is the case, the integrated loop of predicting, monitoring and updating in combination with mitigation measures can be applied to keep subsidence (rate) and induced seismicity within limits. To be able to do so, the operator has extended the field-monitoring network. It now includes PS-InSAR and GPS stations for semi-permanent subsidence monitoring in addition to a traditional network of levelling benchmarks. For the seismic monitoring 60 shallow (200 m) borehole seismometers, 60 + accelerometers and two permanent downhole seismic arrays at reservoir level will be added. Scenario's spanning the range of parameter and model uncertainties will be generated to calculate possible subsidence and seismicity outcomes. The probability of each scenario will be updated over time through confrontation with the measurements as they become available. At regular intervals the subsidence prediction and the seismic risk will be re-evaluated. Further mitigation measures, possibly including further production measures will need to be taken if probabilities indicate unacceptable risks.

Description: Extensive infrastructure collapse resulted from the cataclysmic earthquake that struck off the eastern coast of Japan on 11 March 2011 and from its consequent gigantic tsunami, affecting not only the Tohoku region but also the Kanto region. Among the geological and geotechnical processes observed, land subsidence occurring in both coastal and inland areas and from Tohoku to Kanto is an extremely important issue that must be examined carefully. This land subsidence is classifiable into three categories: (i) land sinking along the coastal areas because of tectonic movements, (ii) settlement of sandy deposits followed by liquefaction, and (iii) long-term post-earthquake recompression settlement in soft clay caused by dissipation of excess pore pressure. This paper describes two case histories of post-earthquake settlement of clay deposits from among the three categories of ground sinking and land subsidence because such settlement has been frequently overlooked in numerous earlier earthquakes. Particularly, an attempt is made to propose a methodology for predicting such settlement and for formulating remedial or responsive measures to mitigate damage from such settlement.

Description: The recent decades have seen a significant evolution of the methodologies and techniques for the monitoring of subsidence on a regional scale: from the traditional levelling technique to GNSS and finally to SAR interferometry. The case study of Emilia-Romagna, Italy, is a prime example of this evolution. As known, the Emilia-Romagna plain is subject to a phenomenon of subsidence with a natural and an anthropogenic component, both of varying amounts depending on the area. The first contributes a few mm/year; the second, particularly evident in the last 60 years, is mainly correlated to excessive withdrawal of fluids from underground and reaches higher values (in the past, subsidence rates of several cm per year were observed in the Po delta and near Bologna). The geodetic monitoring of subsidence started in the 1950s by different entities, establishing and measuring levelling networks of varying size and with various characteristics, mainly located where the phenomenon was most clearly manifest. These local initiatives were not able to provide a consistent understanding of the phenomenon throughout the entire Emilia-Romagna plain. The first regional-scale monitoring of the Emilia-Romagna plain was initiated in 1999, with a large levelling network (about 3000 km) and a coupled network of 60 GNSS points. In subsequent years, the monitoring approach has mainly focused on the most modern remote sensing techniques integrated with each other, with the adoption of the method DInSAR calibrated to a GNSS Continuous Operating Reference Stations (CORS) database. The application of DInSAR methods resulted in subsidence maps with a greater level of detail. The paper analyzes the methodology choices made during 1999–2012, through three successive campaigns that adopted and integrated the different techniques.

Description: Choushui River Fluvial Plain (CRFP) is located in the western central Taiwan, where the geomaterials are composed of alluvial deposits. Because the CRFP area receives highly variable rainfall in wet and dry seasons, the groundwater becomes the main resource of residential water. The precise leveling monitoring from 1970s indicated that the coastal areas of CRFP had been threatened by serious pumping-induced land subsidence. On the basis of relatively accurate measurements of precise leveling measurements, we used cokriging technique to incorporate a number of InSAR images to quantify the surface deformation in CRFP. More specifically, the well-developed Persistent Scatterer InSAR (PSI) was employed to process 34 Envisat images (2005–2008) and the results of PSI was then used for improving the spatial resolution of data from precise leveling. The results of cokriging estimation indicate whether the rate or the area of the land subsidence slows down gradually from 2005 to 2008. The subsidence in the northern part of CRFP was influenced by the groundwater decline in aquifer III, and the southern part was influenced by groundwater decline in aquifer II and III. The cokriging estimation was also comparable with continuous GPS data, and their correlation coefficient is 0.9603 and the root mean square is 10.56 mm yr−1.