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  • Articles  (14)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk  (9)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis  (5)
  • Life and Medical Sciences
  • Elsevier  (10)
  • AGU  (2)
  • Elsevier Ltd  (1)
  • SPRINGER  (1)
  • A.G.U.
  • Blackwell Publishing
  • 2005-2009  (14)
  • 1935-1939
  • 2009  (14)
Collection
  • Articles  (14)
Source
Keywords
Publisher
Years
  • 2005-2009  (14)
  • 1935-1939
Year
  • 1
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    Monte Carlo technique in modeling ground motion coherence in sedimentary filled valleys (2009)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-16
    Description: Using a Monte Carlo method based on a random walk in ad hoc N-dimensional phase space, we construct N random time series having prescribed coherence spatial decay. We apply the method in seismology by designing a numerical experiment to investigate how the coherence of the bedrock motion relates to the coherence of the surface ground motion in a sedimentary valley. The main features of the coherence behavior in the valley are found to tie in with data analysis and field observations.
    Description: Part of the research activities have been carried out by A. Caserta, for his PhD study, in cooperation with the Charles University in Prague (Czech Republic) and in the frame of the projects GACR 205/07/0502 and MSM 0021620860.
    Description: Published
    Description: 133-138
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Coherence of seismic waves ; Monte Carlo numerical simulations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Structural features of Panarea volcano in the frame of the Aeolian Arc (Italy): Implications for the 2002–2003 unrest (2009)
    Elsevier Ltd
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Panarea, characterized by gas unrest in 2002–2003, is the volcanic island with the least constrained structure in the eastern-central Aeolian Arc (Italy). Based on structural measurements, we define here its deformation pattern relative to the Arc. The main deformations are subvertical extension fractures (63% of data), normal faults (25%) and dikes (12%). The mean orientation of the extension fractures and faults is ∼N38◦E, with a mean opening direction of N135◦ ±8◦, implying extension with a moderate component of dextral shear. These data, matched with those available for Stromboli volcano (pure opening) and Vulcano, Lipari and Salina volcanoes (predominant dextralmotions) along the eastern-central Arc, suggest a progressivewestward rotation of the extension direction and an increase in the dextral shear. The dextral shear turns into compression in the western arc. The recent unrest at Panarea, coeval to that of nearby Stromboli, may also be explained by the structural context, as both volcanoes lie along the portion of the Arc subject to extension.
    Description: Protezione Civile, project INGV-DPC-V2
    Description: Published
    Description: 288-292
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Panarea ; Aeolian Arc ; fault ; dike ; 2002-2003 unrest ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.08. Volcanic arcs ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
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    Insight on recent Stromboli eruption inferred from terrestrial and satellite ground deformation measurements (2009)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The multi-parametric permanent system (tilt and GPS networks, robotized geodetic station) for monitoring ground deformation at Stromboli volcano was set up in the 1990s and later greatly improved during the effusive event of 2002–2003. Unlike other volcanoes, e.g. Mt. Etna, the magnitude of ground deformation signals of Stromboli is very small and through the entire period of operation of the monitoring system, only two major episodes of deformation, in 1994–1995 and 2000, which did not lead to an eruption but rather pure intrusion, were measured. Similarly to the 2002–2003 eruption, no important deformations were detected in the months before the 2007 eruption. However, unlike the 2002–2003 eruption, GPS and tilt stations recorded a continuous deflation during the entire 2007 eruption, which allowed us to infer a vertical elongated prolate ellipsoidal source, centered below the summit craters at depth of about 2.8 km b.s.l. Due to its geometry and position, this source simulates an elongated plumbing system connecting the deeper LP magma storage (depth from 5 to 10 km) with the HP shallower storage (0.8–3 km), both previously identified by petrologic and geochemical studies. This result represents the first contribution of geophysics to the definition of the plumbing system of Stromboli at intermediate depth. Finally, no deformation due to the plumbing system was measured for a long time after the end of the eruption. Meanwhile, the new terrestrial geodetic monitoring system installed within the Sciara del Fuoco, on the lava fan formed during the eruption, indicated that during the first months after the end of the eruption the ground velocity progressively decreased in time, suggesting that part of the deformation was due to the thermal contraction of the lava flow.
    Description: Published
    Description: 172-181
    Description: 1.3. TTC - Sorveglianza geodetica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Stromboli ; Ground Deformation ; source modelling ; flank instability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.06. Measurements and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.09. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
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    A seismic sequence from Northern Apennines (Italy) provides new insight on the role of fluids in the active tectonics of accretionary wedges (2009)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We analyze a seismic sequence which occurred in 2000 along the Northern Apennines accretionary wedge (Italy). The sequence developed within the Cretaceous–Triassic limestones of the tectonic wedge, where methane-rich and oil reservoirs are stored. Ruptures mainly developed on WNW–ESE striking thrusts. The compressive stress field is consistent with that acting at regional scale in Northern Apennines. Seismic parameters indicate that fluids are involved in the seismogenic process. The amplitudes of the P and S phases and data from some stations evidence a P to S conversion within Vp/Vs=2.1 layer. The attenuation properties of crust show a higher attenuation zone located west of the epicentral cloud. Eight hundred aftershocks delineate a sub-vertical cloud of events between 7 and 14 km depth. The space–time evolution of the aftershocks is consistent with a diffusive spreading (diffusivity=1.9 m2/s) along vertically superimposed thrusts. Diffusion also controls the time evolution of the sequence. Fluid pressure is estimated to be roughly equal to the vertical, lithostatic stress. The overpressure within reservoirs develops by tectonic compaction processes. The fluids upraise along sub-vertical fractures related to the shortening of the wedge. The 2000 sequence occurred in an area that separates a thermal and deeper petroleum system from a shallower biogenic system. The divider of these systems controls the attenuation properties of the crust. The fluid–rock interaction at seismogenetic depth is related to hydrothermal processes more than to compaction. In accretionary wedges, seismicity activating superimposed thrusts may drive methane and oil upraising from the upper crust.
    Description: Published
    Description: 99-109
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: seismicity ; fluids ; accretionary wedge ; thrust ; geodynamics ; Northern Apennines ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
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    LiDAR-based digital terrain analysis of an area exposed to the risk of lava flow invasion: the Zafferana Etnea territory, Mt. Etna (Italy) (2009)
    SPRINGER
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The town of Zafferana Etnea, located on the southeastern slope of Mt. Etna volcano (Italy), has been repeatedly threatened by lava flows in recent centuries. The last serious threat occurred during the 1991–1993 eruption, when the lava front came to a halt only 1.7 km from the centre of town. Morphostructural data derived from light detection and ranging (LiDAR) surveys carried out on Etna in 2005 have enabled us to evaluate the risk of lava invasion in a section (16 km2) of the Zafferana Etnea territory. Qualitative and quantitative results are obtained combining the information derived from LiDAR analysis with geological, morphological and structural data using geographic information systems technology (GIS). The study quantifies in unprecedented detail the areal extent and volume of forested and urban areas and its degree of exposure to different levels of hazard from future lava invasion. Nearly 52% of the urban texture fall into areas of moderate to high risk from lava invasion. Future land use planning should take these findings into account and promote new development preferentially in areas of lower risk.
    Description: Published
    Description: 321-334
    Description: 1.10. TTC - Telerilevamento
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: 4.4. Scenari e mitigazione del rischio ambientale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: LiDAR ; Etna ; Lava flow hazard ; Land use planning ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.05. Downhole, radioactivity, remote sensing, and other methods ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.06. Measurements and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    A comparative analysis of different models of aftershock rate decay by maximum likelihood estimation of simulated sequences (2009)
    AGU
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Most empirical studies on the decay of the rate of aftershock with time after a main shock assume the simple power law described by the modified Omori model (MOM). A couple of alternative models, also including an exponential decay at long times, have been proposed in the last decades: the modified stretched exponential (MSE) model and the band-limited power law (LPL). The first aim of this work is to discuss the functional properties of such models and the relations existing on their parameters. In particular, we derive, in term of common transcendental functions, the analytical integrals of the LPL and MSE rate functions, which are useful to simplify and speed up computations. We also define, as a function of the parameters of the LPL, two characteristic times tb and ta, which correspond approximately to the delay time c of the MOM and the exponential decay relaxation time t0 of the MSE, respectively. Hence, the MOM, the MSE, and the LPL models can be compared among each other in terms of the same set of four general parameters: (1) the power law exponent, (2) the initial delay time, (3) the exponential relaxation time (1 for the MOM), and (4) a normalization parameter, which can be related in some cases to the total number of potential aftershocks. A second aim of this paper is to test the ability of maximum likelihood methods to detecting the most appropriate decay model among alternatives. By the analysis of sequences simulated according to a MSE or a LPL we show that if the assumed exponential decay relaxation time is shorter than the time window over which the sequence is observed, the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria select correctly the true model (MSE or LPL). Conversely, when the relaxation time is definitely longer than the observing window, the information criteria usually prefer the MOM, but the maximum likelihood of the true model is higher, and if the data set of shocks is sufficiently large, the order of magnitude of the simulated characteristic time of the exponential decay can be estimated quite consistently. Hence, when analyzing real sequences, the possible emergence of the exponential decay might be hidden by the short duration of the time window if the standard information criteria are considered. Moreover, when the relaxation time is short, the estimated power law exponent p for the MOM results definitely higher than that assumed in the simulation. This indicates that high values of p (〉1.5–2.0), sometimes observed in real sequences, might be due to the (not modeled) early startup of the negative exponential decay. Our analysis cannot decide which model is the most appropriate in describing the temporal behavior of aftershock rate after a main shock but suggests that the assumption of a model also including the exponential decay is generally preferable as it allows capture of all of the features of sequence decay.
    Description: Published
    Description: B01305
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: aftershock ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    Dike propagation in volcanic edifices: Overview and possible developments (2009)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Eruptions are fed by dikes; therefore, better knowledge of dike propagation is necessary to improve our understanding of how magma is transferred and extruded at volcanoes. This study presents an overview of dike patterns and the factors controlling dike propagation within volcanic edifices. Largely based on published data, three main types of dikes (regional, circumferential and radial) are illustrated and discussed. Dike pattern data from 25 volcanic edifices in different settings are compared to derive semi-quantitative relationships between the topography (relief, shape, height, and presence of sector collapses) of the volcano, tectonic setting (presence of a regional stress field), and mean composition (SiO2 content). The overview demonstrates how dike propagation in a volcano is not a random process; rather, it depends from the following factors (listed in order of importance): the presence of relief, the shape of the edifice and regional tectonic control. We find that taller volcanoes develop longer radial dikes, whose (mainly lateral) propagation is independent of the composition of magma or the aspect ratio of the edifice. Future research, starting from these preliminary evaluations, should be devoted to identifying dike propagation paths and likely locations of vent formation at specific volcanoes, to better aid hazards assessment.
    Description: Partly fundedwith DPC-INGVfunds (LAVAProject).
    Description: Published
    Description: 67–77
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: dikes ; volcanoes ; topography ; tectonic setting ; eruptions ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.02. Carbon cycling ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Intrusion of eccentric dikes: The case of the 2001 eruption and its role in the dynamics of Mt. Etna volcano (2009)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The 2001 eruption represents one of the most studied events both from volcanological and geophysical point of view on Mt. Etna. This eruption was a crucial event in the recent dynamics of the volcano, marking the passage from a period (March 1993–June 2001) of moderate stability with slow, continuous flank sliding and contemporaneous summit eruptions, to a period (July 2001 to present) of dramatically increased flank deformations and flank eruptions. We show new GPS data and high precision relocation of seismicity in order to demonstrate the role of the 2001 intrusive phase in this change of the dynamic regime of the volcano. GPS data consist of two kinematic surveys carried out on 12 July, a few hours before the beginning of the seismic swarm, and on 17 July, just after the onset of eruptive activity. A picture of the spatial distribution of the sin-eruptive seismicity has been obtained using the HypoDD relocation algorithm based on the double-difference (DD) technique. Modeling of GPS measurements reveals a southward motion of the upper southern part of the volcano, driven by a NNW–SSE structure showing mainly left-lateral kinematics. Precise hypocenter location evidences an aseismic zone at about sea level, where the magma upraise was characterized by a much higher velocity and an abrupt westward shift, revealing the existence of a weakened or ductile zone. These results reveal how an intrusion of a dike can severely modify the shallow stress field, triggering significant flank failure. In 2001, the intrusion was driven by a weakened surface, which might correspond to a decollement plane of the portion of the volcano affected by flank instability, inducing an additional stress testified by GPS measurements and seismic data, which led to an acceleration of the sliding flanks.
    Description: This work was funded by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia and by the Dipartimento per la Protezione Civile (Italy).
    Description: Published
    Description: 78–86
    Description: 1.3. TTC - Sorveglianza geodetica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: stress release ; dike ; volcano-tectonics ; flank instability ; Mt. Etna ; instrumental monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.02. Geological and geophysical evidences of deep processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.02. Seismological data ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    Reply to comments on “Separation of Qi and Qs from passive data at Mt. Vesuvius: A reappraisal of the seismic attenuation estimates” by Ugalde, A. and Carcolé, E. (2009)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The paper by Del Pezzo et al. (2006), hereafter named DPBZ, deals with the estimate of the seismic attenuation in the high frequency range for the volcanic area of Mt. Vesuvius. In particular DPBZ use a method based on the fit of the observed local earthquake coda envelopes to the radiative transfer classical equation (see Sato and Fehler, 1998 for a wide and exhaustive review on this argument) in terms of the intrinsic attenuation and the scattering attenuation coefficients. Ugalde and Carcolé in their comment (hereafter named UC) discuss two points of DPBZ that we summarize here in their essence: (a) Two approximations of the exact solution of the 3-D radiative transfer model have been calculated, that discussed by Zeng (1991) – hereafter Z91 – expressed by Formula (5) of UC, and that by Paasschens (1997) – hereafter P97 – expressed by Formula (6) of UC. UC show that P97 is more accurate than Z91, which is instead used in DPBZ. (b) DPBZ obtain the separated estimates of intrinsic- and scattering-attenuation coefficients, respectively !i and !s, first stacking the normalized energy envelopes (starting at 2Ts lapse time) and then fitting the experimental data with the normalized (in the same way) theoretical curve. UC disagree with this procedure. Their opinion is that DPBZ should have inverted the single energy envelopes and then have averaged the results obtained. In the following we reply to points (a) and (b) in two separate sections.
    Description: Published
    Description: 195–196
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Seismic scattering ; Elastic attenuation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Long-term forecast of eruption style and size at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) (2009)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Campi Flegrei caldera is an active and restless volcano in the densely inhabited Neapolitan area of southern Italy. Because of the very high value (lives, properties, infrastructures, etc.) exposed to potential volcanic hazards, it is one of the areas at highest volcanic risk on Earth. In such a situation we have made an attempt to contribute to assessment of its volcanic hazards by providing a quantitative probabilistic longterm forecast of style and size of the next eruption. We have evaluated the most relevant physical parameters of the 22 explosive eruptions of the Campi Flegrei caldera over the past 5 ka. This time span has been taken as the reference period for volcanic hazards assessment on the basis of the volcanic and deformation history of the caldera. The evaluated parameters include dispersal, volume and density of the pyroclastic deposits, volume of erupted magma, total erupted mass, and eruption magnitude. The obtained results permit a size classification of the explosive eruptions, which are grouped into three sizes: small, medium, and large. On the basis of the reconstructed eruption dynamics, we have considered a type event(s) representative of each size class and hypothesized the style of the next event. An effusive eruption will likely generate a dome or very small lava flows, while an explosive event of any size very probably will produce particles fallout and flowage of pyroclastic density currents. Using a Bayesian inference procedure, we have assigned a conditional probability of occurrence to each of the eruption size classes. A small-size explosive eruption is the most likely event with a probability of about 60%; a large-size explosive eruption is the least likely event with a probability of about 4%; a medium-size explosive eruption has a probability of occurrence of about 25%; an effusive eruption has about 11% probability of occurrence.
    Description: Published
    Description: 265–276
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: volcanic hazards assessment ; eruption size ; eruption style ; Campi Flegrei caldera ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.05. Volcanic rocks ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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