ALBERT

Beschreibung: In predictive geophysical model systems, uncertain initial values and model parameters jointly influence the temporal evolution of the system. This renders initial-value-only optimization by traditional data assimilation methods as insufficient. However, blindly extending the optimization parameter set jeopardizes the validity of the resulting analysis because of the increase of the ill-posedness of the inversion task. Hence, it becomes important to assess the potential observability of measurement networks for model state and parameters in atmospheric modelings in advance of the optimization. In this paper, we novelly establish the dynamic model of emission rates and extend the transport-diffusion model extended by emission rates. Considering the Kalman smoother as underlying assimilation technique, we develop a quantitative assessment method to evaluate the potential observability and the sensitivity of observation networks to initial values and emission rates jointly. This benefits us to determine the optimizable parameters to observation configurations before the data assimilation procedure and make the optimization more efficiently. For high-dimensional models in practical applications, we derive an ensemble based version of the approach and give several elementary experiments for illustrations.

Beschreibung: Urbanization and climate change have resulted in an increase in catchment runoff, often exceeding the designed capacity of sewer systems. The decision to modernize a sewer system should be based on appropriate criteria. In engineering practice, the above is commonly achieved using a hydrodynamic model of the catchment and the simulation of various rainfall events. The article presents a methodology to analyze the effect of rainfall characteristics parametrized with intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves in regard to performance measures of sewerage networks (flood volume per unit impervious surface and share of overfilled manholes in the sewerage network) accounting for the model uncertainty determined via the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method. An urban catchment was modeled with the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Analyses showed that the model uncertainty exerts a large impact on certain measures of sewage network operation. Therefore, these measures should be analyzed in similar studies. This is very important at the stage of decision making in regard to the modernization and sustainable development of catchments. It was found that among the model parameters, the Manning roughness coefficient of sewer channels yields a key impact on the specific flood volume, while the area of impervious surfaces yields the greatest impact on the share of overflowed manholes.

Beschreibung: ZusammenfassungIn einer ersten, durch den Physiker Freeman Dyson inspirierten „Common-Sense“ Kolumne vergleicht der Wirtschaftsinformatiker Edy Portmann die Geschichte von Analog- mit der von Digitalcomputer und fordert abschließend, mit einem gewagten Blick in die Zukunft, sein Schicksal als humanistischer Prophet heraus.

Beschreibung: Hydrograph clustering helps to identify dynamic patterns within aquifers systems, an important foundation of characterizing groundwater systems and their influences, which is necessary to effectively manage groundwater resources. We develope an unsupervised modeling approach to characterize and cluster hydrographs on regional scale according to their dynamics. We apply feature-based clustering to improve the exploitation of heterogeneous datasets, explore the usefulness of existing features and propose new features specifically useful to describe groundwater hydrographs. The clustering itself is based on a powerful combination of Self-Organizing Maps with a modified DS2L-Algorithm, which automatically derives the cluster number but also allows to influence the level of detail of the clustering. We further develop a framework that combines these methods with ensemble modeling, internal cluster validation indices, resampling and consensus voting to finally obtain a robust clustering result and remove arbitrariness from the feature selection process. Further we propose a measure to sort hydrographs within clusters, useful for both interpretability and visualization. We test the framework with weekly data from the Upper Rhine Graben System, using more than 1800 hydrographs from a period of 30 years (1986-2016). The results show that our approach is adaptively capable of identifying homogeneous groups of hydrograph dynamics. The resulting clusters show both spatially known and unknown patterns, some of which correspond clearly to external controlling factors, such as intensive groundwater management in the northern part of the test area. This framework is easily transferable to other regions and, by adapting the describing features, also to other time series-clustering applications.

Beschreibung: Background Occlusions of intravenous (IV) tubing can prevent vital and time-critical medication or solutions from being delivered into the bloodstream of patients receiving IV therapy. At low flow rates (≤ 1 ml/h) the alarm delay (time to an alert to the user) can be up to 2 h using conventional pressure threshold algorithms. In order to reduce alarm delays we developed and evaluated the performance of two new real-time occlusion detection algorithms and one co-occlusion detector that determines the correlation in trends in pressure changes for multiple pumps. Methods Bench-tested experimental runs were recorded in triplicate at rates of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, and 32 ml/h. Each run consisted of 10 min of non-occluded infusion followed by a period of occluded infusion of 10 min or until a conventional occlusion alarm at 400 mmHg occurred. The first algorithm based on binary logistic regression attempts to detect occlusions based on the pump’s administration rate Q(t) and pressure sensor readings P(t). The second algorithm continuously monitored whether the actual variation in the pressure exceeded a threshold of 2 standard deviations (SD) above the baseline pressure. When a pump detected an occlusion using the SD algorithm, a third algorithm correlated the pressures of multiple pumps to detect the presence of a shared occlusion. The algorithms were evaluated using 6 bench-tested baseline single-pump occlusion scenarios, 9 single-pump validation scenarios and 7 multi-pump co-occlusion scenarios (i.e. with flow rates of 1 + 1, 1 + 2, 1 + 4, 1 + 8, 1 + 16, and 1 + 32 ml/h respectively). Alarm delay was the primary performance measure. Results In the baseline single-pump occlusion scenarios, the overall mean ± SD alarm delay of the regression and SD algorithms were 1.8 ± 0.8 min and 0.4 ± 0.2 min, respectively. Compared to the delay of the conventional alarm this corresponds to a mean time reduction of 76% (P = 0.003) and 95% (P = 0.001), respectively. In the validation scenarios the overall mean ± SD alarm delay of the regression and SD algorithms were respectively 1.8 ± 1.6 min and 0.3 ± 0.2 min, corresponding to a mean time reduction of 77% and 95%. In the multi-pump scenarios a correlation 〉 0.8 between multiple pump pressures after initial occlusion detection by the SD algorithm had a mean ± SD alarm delay of 0.4 ± 0.2 min. In 2 out of the 9 validation scenarios an occlusion was not detected by the regression algorithm before a conventional occlusion alarm occurred. Otherwise no occlusions were missed. Conclusions In single pumps, both the regression and SD algorithm considerably reduced alarm delay compared to conventional pressure limit-based detection. The SD algorithm appeared to be more robust than the regression algorithm. For multiple pumps the correlation algorithm reliably detected co-occlusions. The latter may be used to localize the segment of tubing in which the occlusion occurs. Trial registration Not applicable.