ALBERT

Description / Table of Contents: PREFACE There are problems, when applying statistical inference to the analysis of data, which are not readily solved by the inferential methods of the standard statistical techniques. One example is the computation of confidence intervals for variance components or for functions of variance components. Another example is the statistical inference on the random parameters of the mixed model of the standard statistical techniques or the inference on parameters of nonlinear models. Bayesian analysis gives answers to these problems. The advantage of the Bayesian approach is its conceptual simplicity. It is based on Bayes' theorem only. In general, the posterior distribution for the unknown parameters following from Bayes' theorem can be readily written down. The statistical inference is then solved by this distribution. Often the posterior distribution cannot be integrated analytically. However, this is not a serious drawback, since efficient methods exist for the numerical integration. The results of the standard statistical techniques concerning the linear models can also be derived by the Bayesian inference. These techniques may therefore be considered as special cases of the Bayesian analysis. Thus, the Bayesian inference is more general. Linear models and models closely related to linear models will be assumed for the analysis of the observations which contain the information on the unknown parameters of the models. The models, which are presented, are well suited for a variety of tasks connected with the evaluation of data. When applications are considered, data will be analyzed which have been taken to solve problems of surveying engineering. This does not mean, of course, that the applications are restricted to geodesy. Bayesian statistics may be applied wherever data need to be evaluated, for instance in geophysics. After an introduction the basic concepts of Bayesian inference are presented in Chapter 2. Bayes' theorem is derived and the introduction of prior information for the unknown parameters is discussed. Estimates of the unknown parameters, of confidence regions and the testing of hypotheses are derived and the predictive analysis is treated. Finally techniques for the numerical integration of the integrals are presented which have to be solved for the statistical inference. Chapter 3 introduces models to analyze data for the statistical inference on the unknown parameters and deals with special applications. First the linear model is presented with noninformative and informative priors for the unknown parameters. The agreement with the results of the standard statistical techniques is pointed out. Furthermore, the prediction of data and the linear model not of full rank are discussed. A method for identifying a model is presented and a less sensitive hypothesis test for the standard statistical techniques is derived. The Kalman-Bucy filter for estimating unknown parameters of linear dynamic systems is also given. Nonlinear models are introduced and as an example the fit of a straight line is treated. The resulting posterior distribution for the unknown parameters is analytically not tractable, so that numerical methods have to be applied for the statistical inference. In contrast to the standard statistical techniques, the Bayesian analysis for mixed models does not discriminate between fixed and random parameters, it distinguishes the parameters according to their prior information. The Bayesian inference on the parameters, which correspond to the random parameters of the mixed model of the standard statistical techniques, is therefore readily accomplished. Noninformafive priors of the variance and covariance components are derived for the linear model with unknown variance and covariance components. In addition, informative priors are given. Again, the resulting posterior distributions are analytically not tractable, so that numerical methods have to be applied for the Bayesian inference. The problem of classification is solved by applying the Bayes rule, i.e. the posterior expected loss computed by the predictive density function of the observations is minimized. Robust estimates of the standard statistical techniques, which are maximum likelihood type estimates, the so-called M-estimates, may also be derived by Bayesian inference. But this approach not only leads to the M-estimates, but also any inferential problem for the parameters may be solved. Finally, the reconstruction of digital images is discussed. Numerous methods exist for the analysis of digital images. The Bayesian approach unites some of them and gives them a common theoretical foundation. This is due to the flexibility by which prior information for the unknown parameters can be introduced. It is assumed that the reader has a basic knowledge of the standard statistical techniques. Whenever these results are needed, for easy reference the appropriate page of the book "Parameter Estimation and Hypothesis Testing in Linear Models" by the author (Koch 1988a) is cited. Of course, any other textbook on statistical techniques can serve this purpose. To easily recognize the end of an example or a proof, it is marked by a A or a t~, respectively. I want to thank all colleagues and students who contributed to this book. In particular, I thank Mr. Andreas Busch, Dipl.-Ing., for his suggestions. I also convey my thanks to Mrs. Karin Bauer, who prepared the copy of the book. The assistance of the Springer- Verlag in checking the English text is gratefully acknowledged. The responsibility of errors, of course, remains with the author.

Description / Table of Contents: This volume contains the proceedings of a symposium held at Freiburg im Breisgau, October 7-11, 1990. The symposium was sponsored mainly by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG), by the Geological Institute of the University of Freiburg, and by the International Association of Mathematical Geology. We thank these and all other sponsors of the meeting. The symposium whose participants came from more then twenty countries was the first international meeting dedicated entirely to geological applications of threedimensional computer graphics, a rapidly growing field of scientific visualization in geology. The selection of papers in this volume covers a wide range of methods developed in the last decade.

Description / Table of Contents: The present interest in sediments which are rich in organic matter results not only from their economic significance as potential oil and gas source rocks, but also from the fact that their deposition is the result of special environments. Subtle changes in the environmental conditions may result in great variations in the geochemical and petrographical characteristics of the organic matter. Therefore, the study of organic matter-rich sediments can provide a key to past sedimentary conditions. In addition, the elucidation of the depositional controls is of importance for oil and gas exploration strategies, for which the knowledge of source rock distribution and quality is critical. Furthermore, organic matter reacts extremely sensitive to changes in temperature during burial. The result of this sensitivity is the generation of volatile products such as carbon dioxide, water, nitrogen, oil and gas and a reorganization of the solid organic residue. Some of these changes are quantified as maturity parameters which can be used as calibration tools in basin modelling, i.e., in the modelling of temperature histories of sedimentary basins. The use of maturity parameters and other organic matter characteristics as indicators for diagenetic conditions and depositional processes is, however, restricted, if analyses are performed on outcrop samples, because weathering also affects organic matter.

Description / Table of Contents: PREFACE This monograph is a compendium of revised papers which were originally presented at the "Ron Mather Symposium on Four-Dimensional Geodesy", 28-31 March, 1989, held at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. The symposium had the enthusiastic support of the International Association of Geodesy and the Australian Academy of Sciences. The symposium served two purposes: to honour the achievements of the late Professor Ron S. Mather, the distinguished Australian geodesist who died in 1978, and to review and report on the latest developments in four-dimensional geodesy. Four-dimensional geodesy is a convenient term for those geodetic principles and techniques which yield position, gravity and their time variations. In the past geodesists have tended to think of the earth as a static body, save from occasional savage earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. So, why the need to coin the term "four-dimensional geodesy") Because it explicitly recognises that time is an integral part of understanding geodetic measurements. But let's first identify the scope of modern geodesy. Geodesy has traditionally been concerned with two separate, though closely related, topics: accurate positioning of objects on the earth's surface, and mapping the earth's external gravity field. These are still the fundamental tasks of geodesy, although the spheres of application have now extended into space. However, present and emerging geodetic measurement technologies for gravity field mapping and positioning are sensitive to defolTnations of the earth's surface and gravity field. Within the geodetic community, this new emphasis on accounting for the time-varying characteristics of position and gravity has fundamental principles; in particular the establishment and maintenance of appropriate global reference systems for geodesy. At the same time, there has been a growing recognition by the earth sciences in general of the important role of geodesy in studying earth deformations, as well as atmosphere and ocean dynamic phenomena. The geodetic measurements, for example, are taken over time scales of hours to decades, and occasionally to a century or longer. Though this is only a small part of the whole deformation spectrum, it is a very important one. Geodesy bridges the low frequency part of the spectrum available from geological observations, with the high frequency end observed from, for example, seismic instrumentation. It's role in atmospheric and oceanographic studies is as a unique, high precision remote sensing tool. The revolution in geodesy is not, however, restricted to the measurement technology only. It is true that without the advances of space geodesy and terrestrial metrology, the notion of four-dimensional geodesy is a rather academic one. These advances, which now reveal time-variable signals above the measurement noise level, have important implications for all geodetic activities. The geodetic activities we refer to can be identified as: experiment design and measurement processes; definition and maintenance of highly stabie geodetic reference systems; data analysis; and interpretation of position and gravity results. Ultra high precision measurements are of little use without sophisticated analysis tools to extract the small signals in the data. The interpretation of geodetic results will be in error if insufficient attention is paid to ensuring that the reference systems to which the results relate are themselves stable. Clearly four-dimensional geodesy is as much about concepts and principles, as about computers and geodetic equipment. This diversity is reflected in the papers selected for this book. They range over topics related to the modem measurement tools, the reduction and analysis techniques, to the interpretation of geodetic results within the context of problems currently being investigated in the earth sciences. We would like to thank the International Association of Geodesy and the Australian Academy of Sciences for sponsorship of the Symposium. Unisearch Ltd., the commercial arm of the University of New South Wales, was the managing agent, and staff members of the School of Surveying and of Unisearch Ltd. were involved in the organisation of the Symposium. We would like to gratefully acknowledge these excellent contributions. Let us express also our gratitude for the useful guidance which we received from Prof. K. Lambeck, A. Prof. A. Stolz and Dr. R. Coleman of the Scientific Advisory Committee and the continuous support given by Prof. E.W. Grafarend. Sincere thanks are due to the authors of the selected papers for agreeing to contribute to this Monograph, and for their positive cooperation during the production of this volume.

Description / Table of Contents: PREFACE This volume contains a selection of papers presented and discussed at the COMTAGWorkshop on "Dynamics and Geomorphology of Mountain Rivers". COMTAG (Commission on Theory, Measurement and Application in Geomorphology) is a commission of the International Geographical Union (IGU). The meeting was held in the monastery of Benediktbeuern in the Bavarian Alps in June 1992. The main objective of the meeting was to review the most recent developments in research on river bed dynamics and bedload transport in mountain rivers. Questions of mountain torrent control and environmental protection were also addressed. The general theme of the meeting finds its appropriate scientific and spatial location in the long tradition of bedload transport studies carried out in the fluvially active German Alps, which are often affected by flood and mass movement hazards. The conference provided an impulse for discussions between researchers in the fields of mountain torrent hydrology, water resources management and bedload transport modelling. In the five years preceding the meeting the editors of this volume had headed a DFG (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft) project on "Bedload transport and river bed adjustment in the Lainbach catchment" within the priority programme "Fluvial Geomorphodynamics in the late Quaternary". Results of the investigations and newly developed measurement techniques were introduced to the participants during the meeting and an excursion to the nearby Lainbach River. The meeting was attended by sixty four scientists from fifteen countries. Thirty four papers were presented in sessions on bedload transport in mountain torrents, measurement techniques of solid material transport, mass movements and sediment supply, river bed adjustment and roughness characteristics of steep mountain torrents, models of bedload transport, and catastrophic flooding. From a regional perspective the majority of the contributions dealt with the Alps with a special focus on investigations carried out at the northern fringe of the Alps. Most of the papers presented were submitted for publication, and selected papers have been included in this volume. The workshop was financially supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, the Commission of the European Communities (Directorate General for Science, Research and Development), the Freistaat Bayern (Ministerium fOr Unterricht, Kultur, Wissenschaft und Kunst) and the US-Army Research and Development Standardization Group. The participants and the organizers are grateful for these grants. We thank the president of COMTAG, Asher Schick, for his friendly support during the preparation and organization of the workshop. We are also very much indebted to the Kathoiische Stiftungsfachhochschule M~nchen and the Salesianer Don Bo~cos, Benediktbeuern, who opened the rooms of the monastery of Benedikbeuern for scientific sessions and social events during the conference. The organization of the meeting would not have been possible without the help of the local and regional administration, water and forest authorities. We highly appreciate this assistance. In addition, the editors thank the Springer-Verlag for the inclusion of the conference proceedings in this series and the colleagues F. Ahnert, J. Bathurst, W. Bechteler, I. Campbell, P. Carling, N.J. Clifford, S. Custer, T. Davies, A. Dittrich, R. Ferguson, K. Garleff, M. Hassan, R. Hey, H. Ibbeken, J. Karte, H. Keller, D. Knighton, J. Laronne, M. Meunier, M.D. Newson, D. Oostwoud-Wijdenes, I. Reed, K.S.Richards, A. Scheidegger and W. Symader for their valuable contributions as reviewers of the manuscripts that were submitted for this volume.

Description / Table of Contents: INTRODUCTION Ecometry concerns measurements and interpretation of ecological data and relationships between data. It deals with most matters involved in the scientific aspects of the representativity and information value of samples and does not, in fact, concern statistical methods. In particular, ecometry can be regarded as an approach to obtain so-called load models and load diagrammes (effect-dose-sensitivity diagrammes), which are one of the aims/final products in aquatic environmental consequence analysis (H~- kanson, 1990; all these terms will be explained later on). This publication is meant to demonstrate what can and cannot be done using ecometric approaches. It must be emphasized at the outset that the main intention here is not to provide new radioecological knowledge on how Cs-137 is dispersed in aquatic ecosystems after the Chernobyl accident and is taken up in fish, but to use Cs-137 as a type substance and pike as a biological indicator to go through methods which should also apply to other types of environmentally hazardous substances (it could just as well have been substance X in ecosystem Y). As a secondary effect, we may also learn something about Cs-137. Several terms and methods, which have not been used earlier in the aquatic environmental sciences, e.g., ecometric analysis and dynamic modelling using moderators, will be discussed and defined...

Description / Table of Contents: PREFACE Following the economical and social development of the local communities, mountain regions of temperate climates are increasingly becoming the site of valuable infrastructures and important urban and industrial settlements. As the catastrophic events of last years in the European Alps have clearly shown, the vulnerability of these territories has correspondingly increased, in terms of both property damage and losses of human life. Until recently, the hydraulic scientific community has paid little attention to mountain watersheds, except perhaps during the period if the hydropower development. Nevertheless attention was then focused on problems and methodologies somewhat different from the issues of actual environmental concern. More recently, however, hydraulic engineers have joined their colleagues from forest and rural engineering, who have traditionally dealt with erosion control in mountain areas, to bring in their own methodology, already experienced in lowland rivers. At the same time, academic people focused an interest in some phenomena, like massive transport, which is typical of mountain environment. To bring together all these contributions and to make the state of the art of the mountain river science (oropotamology) and technology, an International Workshop was called at the University of Trent (Italy), on October 1989, under the sponsorship of Fluvial Hydraulic Section of the IAHR. Three main topics have been recognized as particularly relevant from the point of view of both research and professivnal people: a) Hydrodynamics of steep channels and local scale process; b) Sediment movement and sediment training, with special emphasis on massive transport; c) Particular features of sediment transport related to non-uniform grain-size. However, as it is the case in these circumstances, the contest of several contributions often spread over more than one topic. In the following Introduction to papers, the three topics were split into 11 Sections, each one devoted to a more particular aspect recurrently addressed during the discussion. The same paper, thus, may be mentioned in different Sections of the Introduction.

Description / Table of Contents: PREFACE This volume presents results from members of the Project 216 "Global Biological Events in Earth History" of the International Geological Correlation Programme (IGCP). The project, initiated by the elder editor (O.H.W.) within the framework of the International Palaeontological Association (IPA) in the late 70s, was officially established in 1984. Subsequently, it led to the first three conferences on Global Bio-Events, and their respective symposia volumes: 1) In G6ttingen, West Germany in 1986 (WaUiser, O. H., Ed., 1986, Global Bio-Events, Springer-Verlag); in Bilbao, Spain in 1987 (Lamolda, M. A., Kauffrnan, E. G., and Walliser, O. H., Eds., 1988, Paleontology and Evolution: Extinction Events; Rev. Espafiola de Paleont., n. extraord.); and in Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. in 1988 (this volume). The next meeting, on Innovations and Revolutions in the Biosphere, is planned in Oxford, England in 1990, to be hosted by Martin Brasier. During the history of this project, the focus of our research has shifted significantly. Initial focus was on specific global mass extinctions (e.g. the Precambrian/Cambrian, Frasnian/Fammenian, Cretaceous/Tertiary, and Eocene/Oligocene events) to a broader treatment of Phanerozoic mass extinctions, their differences or unifying factors, and their causal mechanisms. Subsequent meetings have attempted to focus attention on a fuller spectrum of global bio-events in Earth history. The Boulder Conference, and this volume, although still strongly influenced by the excitement of mass extinction research, expresses these new trends in bioevent studies. The Boulder conference, held on May 16-23, 1988, focused on a broad spectrum of Abrupt Changes in the Global Biota. Over 100 participants from 13 nations attended this meeting, representing diverse disciplines of palaeobiology, palaeoclimatology, palaeoceanography, sedimentology, geochemistry, and a broad spectrum of the stratigraphic and geological sciences. Four days of talks were supplemented by field trips to the continental Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary in the Raton Basin, New Mexico, and to the Cenomanian/Turonian mass extinction interval exposed near Pueblo, Colorado. The Conference itself was characterized by a great diversity of approaches to bio-event research, and the phenomenon of mass extinction. In particular, interactive causes involving both extraterrestrial and earthbound (tectonic, oceanographic, climatic) forces were discussed, and each major Phanerozoic mass extinction was treated by specialists in the field. In addition, many presentations focused on the causal mechanism and patterns of bio-event development that were not restricted to mass extinction intervals, but which could cause regional to global biotic response at any time in Earth history. Thus, both the conference, and this volume, focus attention on climatic and oceanic perturbations from anoxia, advection, rapid thermal change, toxic chemical enrichment, and energy shock from impacts and giant tsunamis as forcing mechanism for regional to global bio-events. The delicate balance of perched ocean/ctimate~fe systems under typical warm equable non-glacial Phanerozoic conditions, and their susceptibility to shock from even small perturbations, was a philosophical theme that ran throughout the meeting. The case for extraterrestrial forcing of tectonic, volcanic, and biological events was greatly strengthened by new data presented at this conference, with special concern for the effects of small comet/meteorite impacts in the oceans, and their chemical/physical/biological signature which might be used, in the absence of shocked minerals, microspheres or trace metals, to identify extraterrestrial events associated with global and regional bio-events. The conference benefitted from the introduction of much new data at high levels of resolution, especially from poorly studied mass extinction intervals. Interactive discussions, and many new ideas characterized the meeting. The new scientific results of this meeting are exciting; they are reviewed in the Conference Report published in Episodes (1988, v. 11, n. 4, p. 289-292). Most of the key papers presented at the Boulder meeting appear in this volume. What lies ahead in bio-event research? Clearly, a great deal of excitement and an age of discovery. We have only touched the surface of this new and dynamic field. We are starting to comprehend the dynamics of global mass extinctions, integrating detailed geochemical, physical and biological data into scenarios of cause and effect. But in the years ahead lies the job of understanding the whole spectrum of regional bioevents preserved in the ancient record, and especially the application of this research to solutions of the critical problems inherent in global change and the modern biotic crisis. Future directions for research at this conference include the investigation and modeling of abrupt chemical and thermal shifts in the ocean, the effects of impacts at deep ocean sites, the documentation of successful survival strategies and repopulation patterns following biotic crises, the deep ocean record of bio-events, and focus on alternative forces other than impacting to account for mass extinction events. This volume introduces some of these new pathways in bio-event research.