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  • Elsevier  (21,127)
  • American Institute of Physics
  • Wiley
  • 2020-2024  (22,323)
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  • 1
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    Search for anomalies in Stromboli's pre-paroxysm activity through an automatic hybrid method of time series analysis (2024)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: Stromboli (Italy) is an open-vent volcano with persistent explosive activity producing up to five hundred mild explosions per day. Fluctuations in explosion intensity, varying even by orders of magnitude in terms of emitted volume and their subsequent impact on the surrounding regions, sometimes occur abruptly. Consequently, identifying precursors of larger eruptive activities, particularly for more intense (paroxysmal) explosions, is challenging. In order to search for anomalies in the pre-paroxysm activity related to the summer 2019 eruption, we applied a hybrid method to the automatic analysis of geophysical and geochemical time series. This approach is based on the combination of two methods: 1. the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and 2. the Support Vector Regression (SVR). The aggregation of these two methods allowed us to identify anomalies in the patterns of the geophysical and geochemical parameters measured on Stromboli in a ten-month period including the July–August 2019 eruption. The results of this study are encouraging for an improvement of the monitoring systems and for volcano early warning applications.
    Description: This work has been supported by the INGV project Pianeta Dinamico 2023-2025 - ObseRvation, Measurement and modelling of Eruptive processes (ORME), and partially supported by the Progetto Strategico Dipartimentale INGV 2019 “Forecasting eruptive activity at Stromboli volcano: timing, eruptive style, size, intensity and duration” (FIRST, Delibera n. 144/2020; Scientific Responsibility: S.C.). Furthermore, this research has benefited from the support of Convenzione B2 DPC-INGV 2022-2024, Stromboli, Task 1.3 “Development of a unique activity index and estimation of the probability of the transition between ‘ordinary’ and ‘extraordinary’ eruptive activity”, and of the INGV project “Reti Multiparametriche”, Task A2 “Development of methods for the identification of precursors of Stromboli's paroxysms and major explosions based on multiparametric data analysis and study of possible early warning techniques”.
    Description: In press
    Description: 108131
    Description: OSV1: Verso la previsione dei fenomeni vulcanici pericolosi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Stromboli volcano ; Volcanic monitoring ; Data analysis ; Multiparametric geophysics ; Paroxysmal explosions ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 2
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    Spatial competition in a global disturbance minimum; the seabed under an Antarctic ice shelf (2023)
    Elsevier
    In:  EPIC3The Science of The Total Environment, Elsevier, 903, pp. 166157-166157, ISSN: 0048-9697
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: The marine habitat beneath Antarctica’s ice shelves spans ~1.6 million km2, and life in this vast and extreme environment is among Earth’s least accessible, least disturbed and least known, yet likely to be impacted by climate-forced warming and environmental change. Although competition among biota is a fundamental structuring force of ecological communities, hence ecosystem functions and services, nothing was known of competition for resources under ice shelves, until this study. Boreholes drilled through a ~ 200 m thick ice shelf enabled collections of novel sub-ice-shelf seabed sediment which contained fragments of biogenic substrata rich in encrusting (lithophilic) macrobenthos, principally bryozoans – a globally-ubiquitous phylum sensitive to environmental change. Analysis of sub-glacial biogenic substrata, by stereo microscopy, provided first evidence of spatial contest competition, enabling generation of a new range of competition measures for the sub-ice-shelf benthic space. Measures were compared with those of global open-water datasets traversing polar, temperate and tropical latitudes (and encompassing both hemispheres). Spatial competition in sub-ice-shelf samples was found to be higher in intensity and severity than all other global means. The likelihood of sub-ice-shelf competition being intraspecific was three times lower than for open-sea polar continental shelf areas, and competition complexity, in terms of the number of different types of competitor pairings, was two-fold higher. As posited foran enduring disturbance minimum, a specific bryozoan clade was especially competitively dominant in sub-ice shelf samples compared with both contemporary and fossil assemblage records. Overall, spatial competition under an Antarctic ice shelf, as characterised by bryozoan interactions, was strikingly different from that of open- sea polar continental shelf sites, and more closely resembled tropical and temperate latitudes. This study represents the first analysis of sub-ice-shelf macrobenthic spatial competition and provides a new ecological baseline for exploring, monitoring and comparing ecosystem response to environmental change in a warming world.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 3
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    Testate amoebae (Protozoa) in lakes of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: Biodiversity, community structures, and protozoic biosilicification in relation to environmental properties and climate warming (2024)
    Elsevier
    In:  EPIC3The Science of The Total Environment, Elsevier, 913, pp. 169661-169661, ISSN: 0048-9697
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is characterized by a vast number of frozen and unfrozen freshwater reservoirs, which is why it is also called “the third pole” of the Earth or “Asian Water Tower”. We analyzed testate amoeba (TA) biodiversity and corresponding protozoic biosilicification in lake sediments of the QTP in relation to environmental properties (freshwater conditions, elevation, and climate). As TA are known as excellent bio-indicators, our results allowed us to derive conclusions about the influence of climate warming on TA communities and microbial biogeochemical silicon (Si) cycling. We found a total of 113 TA taxa including some rare and one unknown species in the analyzed lake sediments of the QTP highlighting the potential of this remote region for TA biodiversity. 〉1/3 of the identified TA taxa were relatively small (〈30 μm) reflecting the relatively harsh environmental conditions in the examined lakes. TA communities were strongly affected by physico-chemical properties of the lakes, especially water temperature and pH, but also elevation and climate conditions (temperature, precipitation). Our study reveals climate-related changes in TA biodiversity with consequences for protozoic biosilicification. As the warming trend in the QTP is two to three times faster compared to the global average, our results provide not only deeper insights into the relations between TA biodiversity and environmental properties, but also predictions of future developments in other regions of the world. Moreover, our results provide fundamental data for paleolimnological reconstructions. Thus, examining the QTP is helpful to understand microbial biogeochemical Si cycling in the past, present, and future.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 4
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    Evolutionary adaptation of trees and modelled future larch forest extent in Siberia (2023)
    Elsevier
    In:  EPIC3Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, 478, pp. 110278-110278, ISSN: 0304-3800
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: With changing climate, the boreal forest could potentially migrate north and become threatened by droughts in the south. However, whether larches, the dominant tree species in eastern Siberia, can adapt to novel situations is largely unknown but is crucial for predicting future population dynamics. Exploring variable traits and trait adaptation through inheritance in an individual-based model can improve our understanding and help future projections. We updated the individual-based spatially explicit vegetation model LAVESI (Larix Vegetation Simulator), used for forest predictions in Eastern Siberia, with trait value variation and incorporated inheritance of parental values to their offspring. Forcing the model with both past and future climate projections, we simulated two areas – the expanding northern treeline and a southerly area experiencing drought. While the specific trait of ‘seed weight’ regulates migration, the abstract ‘drought resistance’ protects stands. We show that trait variation with inheritance leads to an increase in migration rate (∼ 3% area increase until 2100). The drought resistance simulations show that, under increasing stress, including adaptive traits leads to larger surviving populations (17% of threatened under RCP 4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway)). We show that with the increase expected under the RCP 8.5 scenario vast areas (80% of the extrapolated area) of larch forest are threatened and could disappear due to drought as adaptation plays only a minor role under strong warming. We conclude that variable traits facilitate the availability of variants under environmental changes. Inheritance allows populations to adapt to environments and promote successful traits, which leads to populations that can spread faster and be more resilient, provided the changes are not too drastic in both time and magnitude. We show that trait variation and inheritance contribute to more accurate models that can improve our understanding of responses of boreal forests to global change.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 5
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    A research agenda for nonvascular photoautotrophs under climate change (2023)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3New Phytologist, Wiley, 237(5), pp. 1495-1504, ISSN: 0028-646X
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: Nonvascular photoautotrophs (NVP), including bryophytes, lichens, terrestrial algae, and cyanobacteria, are increasingly recognized as being essential to ecosystem functioning in many regions of the world. Current research suggests that climate change may pose a substantial threat to NVP, but the extent to which this will affect the associated ecosystem functions and services is highly uncertain. Here, we propose a research agenda to address this urgent question, focusing on physiological and ecological processes that link NVP to ecosystem functions while also taking into account the substantial taxonomic diversity across multiple ecosystem types. Accordingly, we developed a new categorization scheme, based on microclimatic gradients, which simplifies the high physiological and morphological diversity of NVP and world-wide distribution with respect to several broad habitat types. We found that habitat-specific ecosystem functions of NVP will likely be substantially affected by climate change, and more quantitative process understanding is required on: (1) potential for acclimation; (2) response to elevated CO2; (3) role of the microbiome; and (4) feedback to (micro)climate. We suggest an integrative approach of innovative, multimethod laboratory and field experiments and ecophysiological modelling, for which sustained scientific collaboration on NVP research will be essential.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 6
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    Precession and obliquity forcing of the South African monsoon revealed by sub-tropical fires (2023)
    Elsevier
    In:  EPIC3Quaternary Science Reviews, Elsevier, 310, pp. 108128-108128, ISSN: 0277-3791
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: While the influence of precession on monsoon at low latitudes through insolation forcing is well-known, the role of obliquity is still debated since its influence on the distribution of incoming solar radiation is small in these regions. In southern Africa, long marine and terrestrial sedimentary records attest of a precessional influence on the South African monsoon at orbital time scale. The obliquity signal is occasionally observed in the geological records although modeling results suggest an influence of precession and obliquity on summer monsoon. Here, we present a record of microscopic charcoal from core MD96-2098 located off Namibia covering the past 184,000 years. Our record of fire activity reveals cyclic changes at frequencies of 23, 58 and 12 kyr−1 and lacks the obliquity signal at 41 kyr−1. Changes in fire over southern Africa are interpreted as shifts in large and intense fires spreading in open-grassland savanna as a result of orbitally-driven changes in rainfall intensity associated with the South African monsoon. We show that, despite the absence of a 41 kyr obliquity imprint, the presence of 23, 58 and 12 kyr−1 frequencies likely stems from a nonlinear response of fire to precipitation controlled by a combination of precession and obliquity frequencies, supporting the influence of obliquity on the South African monsoon.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 7
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    Testing the consistency of Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum spatial correlations in temperature proxy records (2021)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Quaternary Science, Wiley, 36(1), pp. 20-28, ISSN: 0267-8179
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: Holocene temperature proxy records are commonly used in quantitative synthesis and model-data comparisons. However, comparing correlations between time series from records collected in proximity to one another with the expected correlations based on climate model simulations indicates either regional or noisy climate signals in Holocene temperature proxy records. In this study, we evaluate the consistency of spatial correlations present in Holocene proxy records with those found in data from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Specifically, we predict correlations expected in LGM proxy records if the only difference to Holocene correlations would be due to more time uncertainty and more climate variability in the LGM. We compare this simple prediction to the actual correlation structure in the LGM proxy records. We found that time series data of ice-core stable isotope records and planktonic foraminifera Mg/Ca ratios were consistent between the Holocene and LGM periods, while time series of Uk'37 proxy records were not as we found no correlation between nearby LGM records. Our results support the finding of highly regional or noisy marine proxy records in the compilation analysed here and suggest the need for further studies on the role of climate proxies and the processes of climate signal recording and preservation.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 8
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    Biome‐ and timescale‐dependence of Holocene vegetation variability in the Northern Hemisphere (2023)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Ecology and Evolution, Wiley, 13(10), pp. e10585-e10585, ISSN: 2045-7758
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: Global climatic changes expected in the next centuries are likely to cause unparalleled vegetation disturbances, which in turn impact ecosystem services. To assess the significance of disturbances, it is necessary to characterize and understand typical natural vegetation variability on multi-decadal timescales and longer. We investigate this in the Holocene vegetation by examining a taxonomically harmonized and temporally standardized global fossil pollen dataset. Using principal component analysis, we characterize the variability in pollen assemblages, which are a proxy for vegetation composition, and derive timescale-dependent estimates of variability using the first-order Haar structure function. We find, on average, increasing fluctuations in vegetation composition from centennial to millennial timescales, as well as spatially coherent patterns of variability. We further relate these variations to pairwise comparisons between biome classes based on vegetation composition. As such, higher variability is identified for open-land vegetation compared to forests. This is consistent with the more active fire regimes of open-land biomes fostering variability. Needleleaf forests are more variable than broadleaf forests on shorter (centennial) timescales, but the inverse is true on longer (millennial) timescales. This inversion could also be explained by the fire characteristics of the biomes as fire disturbances would increase vegetation variability on shorter timescales, but stabilize vegetation composition on longer timecales by preventing the migration of less fire-adapted species.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 9
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    Strengthening global-change science by integrating aeDNA with paleoecoinformatics (2023)
    Elsevier
    In:  EPIC3Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Elsevier, 38(10), pp. 946-960, ISSN: 0169-5347
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-20
    Description: Ancient environmental DNA (aeDNA) data are close to enabling insights into past global-scale biodiversity dynamics at unprecedented taxonomic extent and resolution. However, achieving this potential requires solutions that bridge bioinformatics and paleoecoinformatics. Essential needs include support for dynamic taxonomic inferences, dynamic age inferences, and precise stratigraphic depth. Moreover, aeDNA data are complex and heterogeneous, generated by dispersed researcher networks, with methods advancing rapidly. Hence, expert community governance and curation are essential to building high-value data resources. Immediate recommendations include uploading metabarcoding-based taxonomic inventories into paleoecoinformatic resources, building linkages among open bioinformatic and paleoecoinformatic data resources, harmonizing aeDNA processing workflows, and expanding community data governance. These advances will enable transformative insights into global-scale biodiversity dynamics during large environmental and anthropogenic changes.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 10
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    Climate, glacial and vegetation history of the polar Ural Mountains since c. 27 cal ka bp, inferred from a 54 m long sediment core from Lake Bolshoye Shchuchye (2022)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Quaternary Science, Wiley, 37(5), pp. 818-835, ISSN: 0267-8179
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-20
    Description: Because continuous and high-resolution records are scarce in the polar Urals, a multiproxy study was carried out on a 54 m long sediment succession (Co1321) from Lake Bolshoye Shchuchye. The sedimentological, geochemical, pollen and chironomid data suggest that glaciers occupied the lake's catchment during the cold and dry MIS 2 and document a change in ice extent around 23.5–18 cal ka bp. Subsequently, meltwater input, sediment supply and erosional activity decreased as local glaciers progressively melted. The vegetation around the lake comprised open, herb and grass-dominated tundra-steppe until the Bølling-Allerød, but shows a distinct change to probably moister conditions around 17–16 cal ka bp. Local glaciers completely disappeared during the Bølling-Allerød, when summer air temperatures were similar to today and low shrub tundra became established. The Younger Dryas is confined by distinct shifts in the pollen and chironomid records pointing to drier conditions. The Holocene is characterised by a denser vegetation cover, stabilised soil conditions and decreased minerogenic input, especially during the local thermal maximum between c. 10 and 5 cal ka bp. Subsequently, present-day vegetation developed and summer air temperatures decreased to modern, except for two intervals, which may represent the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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