ALBERT

Note: Contents Foreword Preface Contributors I Introduction 1 The Development of Climate Research / by ANTONIO NAVARRA 1.1 The Nature of Climate Studies 1.1.1 The Big Storm Controversy 1.1.2 The Great Planetary Oscillations 1.2 The Components of Climate Research 1.2.1 Dynamical Theory 1.2.2 Numerical Experimentation 1.2.3 Statistical Analysis 2 Misuses of Statistical Analysis in Climate Research / by HANS VON STORCH 2.1 Prologue 2.2 Mandatory Testing and the Mexican Hat 2.3 Neglecting Serial Correlation 2.4 Misleading Names: The Case of the Decorrelation Time 2.5 Use of Advanced Techniques 2.6 Epilogue II Analyzing The Observed Climate 3 Climate Spectra and Stochastic Climate Models / by CLAUDE FRANKIGNOUL 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Spectral Characteristics of Atmospheric Variables 3.3 Stochastic Climate Model 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies 3.5 Variability of Other Surface Variables 3.6 Variability in the Ocean Interior 3.7 Long Term Climate Changes 4 The Instrumental Data Record: Its Accuracy and Use in Attempts to Identify the "CO2 Signal" / by PHIL JONES 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Homogeneity 4.2.1 Changes in Instrumentation, Exposure and Measuring Techniques 4.2.2 Changes in Station Locations 4.2.3 Changes in Observation Time and the Methods Used to Calculate Monthly Averages 4.2.4 Changes in the Station Environment 4.2.5 Precipitation and Pressure Homogeneity 4.2.6 Data Homogenization Techniques 4.3 Surface Climate Analysis 4.3.1 Temperature 4.3.2 Precipitation 4.3.3 Pressure 4.4 The Greenhouse Detection Problem 4.4.1 Definition of Detection Vector and Data Used 4.4.2 Spatial Correlation Methods 4.5 Conclusions 5 Interpreting High-Resolution Proxy Climate Data - The Example of Dendr о climatology / by KEITH R. BRIFFA 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Background 5.3 Site Selection and Dating 5.4 Chronology Confidence 5.4.1 Chronology Signal 5.4.2 Expressed Population Signal 5.4.3 Subsample Signal Strength 5.4.4 Wider Relevance of Chronology Signal 5.5 "Standardization" and Its Implications for Judging Theoretical Signal 5.5.1 Theoretical Chronology Signal 5.5.2 Standardization of "Raw" Data Measurements 5.5.3 General Relevance of the "Standardization" Problem 5.6 Quantifying Climate Signals in Chronologies 5.6.1 Calibration of Theoretical Signal 5.6.2 Verification of Calibrated Relationships 5.7 Discussion 5.8 Conclusions 6 Analysing the Boreal Summer Relationship Between World wide Sea-Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Variability / by M. NEIL WARD 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Physical Basis for Sea-Surface Temperature Forcing of the Atmosphere 6.2.1 Tropics 6.2.2 Extratropics 6.3 Characteristic Patterns of Global Sea Surface Temperature: EOFs and Rotated EOFs 6.3.1 Introduction 6.3.2 SST Data 6.3.3 EOF method 6.3.4 EOFs p^→1 - p^→3 6.3.5 Rotation of EOFs 6.4 Characteristic Features in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with the SST Patterns p^→2, p ^→3 and p^→2R in JAS 6.4.1 Data and Methods 6.4.2 Patterns in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with EOF p^→2 6.4.3 Patterns in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with EOF p^→3 6.4.4 Patterns in the Marine Atmosphere Associated with Rotated EOF p^→2R 6.5 JAS Sahel Rainfall Links with Sea-Surface Temperature and Marine Atmosphere 6.5.1 Introduction 6.5.2 Rainfall in the Sahel of Africa 6.5.3 High Frequency Sahel Rainfall Variations 6.5.4 Low Frequency Sahel Rainfall Variations 6.6 Conclusions III Simulating and Predicting Climate 7 The Simulation of Weather Types in GCMs : A Regional Approach to Control-Run Validation / by KEITH R. BRIFFA 7.1 Introduction 7.2 The Lamb Catalogue 7.3 An "Objective" Lamb Classification 7.4 Details of the Selected GCM Experiments 7.5 Comparing Observed and GCM Climates 7.5.1 Lamb Types 7.5.2 Temperature and Precipitation 7.5.3 Relationships Between Circulation Frequencies and Temperature and Precipitation 7.5.4 Weather-Type Spell Lengths and Storm Frequencies 7.6 Conclusions 7.6.1 Specific Conclusions 7.6.2 General Conclusions 8 Statistical Analysis of GCM Output / by CLAUDE FRANKIGNOUL 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Univariate Analysis 8.2.1 The i-Test on the Mean of a Normal Variable 8.2.2 Tests for Autocorrelated Variables 8.2.3 Field Significance 8.2.4 Example: GCM Response to a Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly 8.3 Multivariate Analysis 8.3.1 Test on Means of Multidimensional Normal Variables 8.3.2 Application to Response Studies 8.3.3 Application to Model Testing and Intercomparison 9 Field Intercomparison / by ROBERT E . LIVEZEY 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Motivation for Permutation and Monte Carlo Testing 9.2.1 Local vs. Field Significance 9.2.2 Test Example 9.3 Permutation Procedures 9.3.1 Test Environment 9.3.2 Permutation (PP) and Bootstrap (BP) Procedures 9.3.3 Properties 9.3.4 Interdependence Among Field Variables 9.4 Serial Correlation 9.4.1 Local Probability Matching 9.4.2 Times Series and Monte Carlo Methods 9.4.3 Independent Samples 9.4.4 Conservatism 9.5 Concluding Remarks 10 The Evaluation of Forecasts / by ROBERT E. LIVEZEY 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Considerations for Objective Verification 10.2.1 Quantification 10.2.2 Authentication 10.2.3 Description of Probability Distributions 10.2.4 Comparison of Forecasts 10.3 Measures and Relationships: Categorical Forecasts 10.3.1 Contingency and Definitions 10.3.2 Some Scores Based on the Contingency Table 10.4 Measures and Relationships: Continuous Forecasts 10.4.1 Mean Squared Error and Correlation 10.4.2 Pattern Verification (the Murphy-Epstein Decomposition) 10.5 Hindcasts and Cross-Validation 10.5.1 Cross-Validation Procedure 10.5.2 Key Constraints in Cross-Validation 11 Stochastic Modeling of Precipitation with Applications to Climate Model Downscaling / by DENNIS LETTENMAIER 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Probabilistic Characteristics of Precipitation 11.3 Stochastic Models of Precipitation 11.3.1 Background 11.3.2 Applications to Global Change 11.4 Stochastic Precipitation Models with External Forcing 11.4.1 Weather Classification Schemes 11.4.2 Conditional Stochastic Precipitation Models 11.5 Applications to Alternative Climate Simulation 11.6 Conclusions IV Pattern Analysis 12 Teleconnections Patterns / by ANTONIO NAVARRA 12.1 Objective Teleconnections 12.2 Singular Value Decomposition 12.3 Teleconnections in the Ocean-Atmosphere System 12.4 Concluding Remarks 13 Spatial Patterns: EOFs and CCA / by HANS VON STORCH 13.1 Introduction 13.2 Expansion into a Few Guess Patterns 13.2.1 Guess Patterns, Expansion Coefficients and Explained Variance 13.2.2 Example: Temperature Distribution in the Mediterranean Sea 13.2.3 Specification of Guess Patterns 13.2.4 Rotation of Guess Patterns 13.3 Empirical Orthogonal Functions 13.3.1 Definition of EOFs 13.3.2 What EOFs Are Not Designed for 13.3.3 Estimating EOFs 13.3.4 Example: Central European Temperature 13.4 Canonical Correlation Analysis 13.4.1 Definition of Canonical Correlation Patterns 13.4.2 CCA in EOF Coordinates 13.4.3 Estimation: CCA of Finite Samples 13.4.4 Example: Central European Temperature 14 Patterns in Time : SSA and MSSA / by ROBERT VAUTARD 14.1 Introduction 14.2 Reconstruction and Approximation of Attractors 14.2.1 The Embedding Problem 14.2.2 Dimension and Noise 14.2.3 The Macroscopic Approximation 14.3 Singular Spectrum Analysis 14.3.1 Time EOFs 14.3.2 Space-Time EOFs 14.3.3 Oscillatory Pairs 14.3.4 Spectral Properties 14.3.5 Choice of the Embedding Dimension 14.3.6 Estimating Time and Space-Time Patterns 14.4 Climatic Applications of SSA 14.4.1 The Analysis of Intraseasonal Oscillations 14.4.2 Empirical Long-Range Forecasts Using MSSA Predictors 14.5 Conclusions 15 Multivariate Statistical Modeling : POP-Model as a First Order Approximation / by JIN-SONG VON STORCH 15.1 Introduction 15.2 The Cross-Covariance Matrix and the Cross-Spectrum Matrix 15.3 Multivariate AR(1) Process and its Cross-Covariance and Cross-Spectrum Matrices 15.3.1 The System Matrix A and its POPs 15.3.2 Cross-Spectrum Matrix in POP-Basis: Its Matrix Formulation 15.3.3 Cross-Spectrum Matrix in POP-Basis: Its Diagonal Components

Note: Abstract Résumé Acknowledgments Welcome to Yellowknife Part I: The landscape and the people Geological evolution of the landscape Bedrock geology Surficial geology Climate and vegetation History of Yellowknife From gold to government Significant events Part II: Living with frozen ground Permafrost Regional distribution Permafrost occurrence in Yellowknife Significance of peat Significance of moisture Ice lenses Thaw stable and thaw unstable ground Thaw settlement Frost heave Development Buildings Roads Utilities Thermosyphons Climate change - an uncertain future for permafrost Climate and permafrost history Air temperature trends over the last century Response of air temperatures to doubling of greenhouse gases Effect of climate warming on permafrost in Yellowknife Impacts of climate warming Part III: Guide to field stops Introduction The Capital Tour - Capital Site to Bowling Green building Stop 1. The Capital Site - a profusion of peat Stop 2. Legislative Assembly - design with nature Stop 3. Legislative Assembly roadway - perils of paving peat Stop 4. Walking path - tipping trails Stop 5. Legislative Assembly parking lot - preserving permafrost Stop 6. Frame Lake - Yellowknife's aquatic centrepiece Stop 7. National Defence building - seeking solid ground Stop 8. Visitors Centre - rocking and rolling Stop 9. 49 Street thermosyphons - keeping it cool Stop 10. Bowling Green building - swallowing sidewalks The City Tour - 49 Avenue to Niven Lake Stop 11. 49 and 49 intersection - rolling roadways Stop 12. 49 Avenue - sagging sidewalks Stop 13. Downtown Yellowknife - safe on sand Stop 14. Gold Range Hotel - making things work Stop 15. Centre Square Mall - stemming shifting sands Stop 16. Boston Pizza - fast food on a slab Stop 17. Royal Oak Mines Inc. houses - half a century later Stop 18. 52 Avenue - up, up, and ... away Stop 19. 49 Street hill - leaving good ground Stop 20. 54 Avenue - frozen dangers underfoot Stop 21. Rockcliffe Apartments - creeping crawl space Stop 22. School Draw subdivision - houses on the move Stop 23. School Draw Park - from basements to basketballs Stop 24. Rock outcrop - on the shores of glacial Lake McConnell Stop 25. Detah ice road - crystal highway Stop 26. Old Town - doing things the old-fashioned way Stop 27. Franklin Avenue - whither frozen ground? Stop 28. Fritz Theil Park - from dump to diamond I Stop 29. Old sewage line - pipes and peat Stop 30. Niven Lake - a subarctic oasis I Part IV: The Niven Lake Trail Introduction Stop 1. A biological magnet for waterbirds Stop 2. The land of little sticks Stop 3. The wonder of wetlands Stop 4. Niven Lake -urban oasis for wildlife Stop 5. Peat, beautiful peat Stop 6. Honolulu north? Stop 7. Home sweet home -all year round Stop 8. Those mud-slinging, bug-poking shorebirds Glossary of terms Selected references List of field guides for Yellowknife

Note: Contents Summary Introduction Material and Methods 2.1 Experimental Approach and Concept 2.2 Cold Chamber Experiments 2.2.1 Packed Sand Columns 2.2.2 Undisturbed Soil Monolith 2.3 Tracer Extraction and Determination of Tracer Concentrations 2.4 Digital Image Analysis 2.4.1 Photographic Recording 2.4.2 Image Analysis 2.4.3 Statistical Regression Analysis 2.5 Fluorescence Imaging 2.6 Low-Temperature SEM and X-Ray Analysis 2.7 Numerical Simulation 2.7.1 Model Description 2.7.2 Model Application 3 Results From Cold Chamber Experiments 3.1 Packed Sand Columns (Experiment I-III) 3.1.1 Infiltration Behaviour (Experiment I-III) 3.1.2 Dye Tracer Distribution (Experiment III) 3.1.3 Mass Recovery of Dye Tracers (Experiment III) 3.1.4 Vertical Distribution of Dye Tracers Determined From Large Sections (Experiment III) 3.2 Undisturbed Soil Monolith (Experiment IV) 3.2.1 Infiltration Behaviour 3.2.2 Dye Tracer Distributions 3.2.3 Mass Recovery of all Tracers Determined From Large Sections 3.2.4 Vertical Distribution of all Tracers Determined From Large Sections 4 Results From Low-Temperature SEM and X-Ray Analysis 4.1 Dry Sand and Loam 4.2 Wet Sand 4.3 Wet Loam 5 Modelling Results 5.1 Thermal Regime 5.2 Water Content Profile Before the Irrigation 5.3 Infiltration Behaviour 5.4 Water Content Profile After the Irrigation 5.5 Solute Transport 5.6 Energy Exchange at the Surface 6 Conclusions 6.1 Conclusions About the Methods 6.2 Conclusions About the Water Infiltration in Frozen Soil List of Figures List of Tables Bibliography

Note: Zum Teil in kyrillischer Schrift. , Text in russischer, englischer und französischer Sprache

Note: Table of Contents Foreword The Global Context The Arctic in a Global Context The ARCSS Program The Arctic System Science (ARCSS) Program The Scientific Goals of the ARCSS Program ARCSS Objectives Significant Research and Findings of the ARCSS Program ARCSS Program Research Implementation of ARCSS Program Research ARCSS Program Components Paleoenvironmental Studies Greenland Ice Sheet Project Two (GISP2) Paleoclimates of Arctic Lakes and Estuaries (PALE) Ocean-Atmosphere-Ice Interactions (OAII) Land-Atmosphere-Ice Interactions (LAII) Integrative Studies Synthesis, Integration, and Modeling Studies (SIMS) New Initiatives Human Dimensions of the Arctic System (HARC) Russian-American Initiative on Shelf-Land Environments in the Arctic (RAISE) International Collaboration The Future of the ARCSS Program Priorities for the Future Research Questions Integrative Strategies Community Coordination and Integration Coordination and Integration Logistics Support Working with Arctic Residents Community Planning and Science Management ARCSS Committee Science Steering Committees Periodic Meetings of ARCSS Principal Investigators Appendices ARCSS Program Contact Information A History of ARCSS Program Development ARCSS Data Protocol References and Relevant Reports Contributors and Reviewers

Note: Zugleich: Dissertation, Norges landbrukshøgskole, 1999 , Englisch