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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: On the Forecasting Horizon of Seismicity Models
    Description: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Rome, Italy Institute of Statistical Mathematics (ISM), Tokyo, Japan Swiss Seismological Service, Institute of Geophysics (ETH), Zürich, Switzerland
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Erice, Italy
    Description: open
    Keywords: forecasting ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Oral presentation
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: The New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Centre
    Description: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Rome, Italy Institute of Statistical Mathematics (ISM), Tokyo, Japan Swiss Seismological Service, Institute of Geophysics (ETH), Zürich, Switzerland
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Erice, Italy
    Description: open
    Keywords: forecasting ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Oral presentation
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: In this paper, we propose a new model of the crustal structure and seismotectonics for central Sicily (southern Italy) through the analysis of the depth distribution and kinematics of the instrumental seismicity, occurring during the period from 1983 to 2010, and its comparison with individual geological structures that may be active in the area. The analysed data set consists of 392 earthquakes with local magnitudes ranging from 1.0 to 4.7. We defined a new, detailed 1-D velocity model to relocate the earthquakes that occurred in central Sicily, and we calculated a Moho depth of 37 km and a mean VP/VS ratio of 1.73. The relocated seismic events are clustered mainly in the area north of Caltanissetta (e.g. Mainland Sicily) and in the northeastern sector (Madonie Mountains) of the study area; only minor and greatly dispersed seismicity is located in the western sector, near Belice, and along the southern coast, between Gela and Sciacca. The relocated hypocentral distribution depicts a bimodal pattern: 50 per cent of the events occur within the upper crust at depths less than ~16 km, 40 per cent of the events occur within the middle and depth crust, at depths between 16 and 32 km, and the remaining 10 per cent occur at subcrustal depths. The energy release pattern shows a similar depth distribution. On the basis of the kinematic analysis of 38 newly computed focal plane solutions, two major geographically distinct seismotectonic domains are distinguished: the Madonie Mountain domain, with prevalent extensional and extensional-oblique kinematics associated with upper crust Late Pliocene–Quaternary faulting, and the Mainland Sicily domain, with prevalent compressional and compressional-oblique kinematics associated with thrust faulting, at mid to deep crust depth, along the north-dipping Sicilian Basal Thrust (SBT). The stress inversion of the Mainland Sicily focal solutions integrated with neighbouring mechanisms available in the literature highlights a regional homogeneous compressional tensor, with a subhorizontal NNW–SSE-striking σ1 axis. In addition, on the basis of geodetic data, the Mainland Sicily domain may be attributed to the SSE-ward thrusting of the Mainland Sicily block along the SBT plane. Seismogenic shearing along the SBT at mid-crustal depths was responsible for the unexpected Belice 1968 earthquake (Mw 6.1), with evident implications in terms of hazard assessment.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1237-2252
    Description: 1.1. TTC - Monitoraggio sismico del territorio nazionale
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: 5.2. TTC - Banche dati di sismologia strumentale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Seismicity and tectonics ; Continental tectonics: compressional ; Dynamics: seismotectonics ; Crustal structure ; Europe ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2024-04-05
    Description: Secondary microseismic noise is generated by non-linear interactions between ocean waves at the ocean surface. We present here the theory for computing the site effect of the ocean layer upon body waves generated by noise sources distributed along the ocean surface. By defining the wavefield as the superposition of plane waves, we show that the ocean site effect can be described as the constructive interference of multiply reflected P waves in the ocean that are then converted to either P or SV waves at the ocean–crust interface. We observe that the site effect varies strongly with period and ocean depth, although in a different way for body waves than for Rayleigh waves. We also show that the ocean site effect is stronger for P waves than for S waves. We validate our computation by comparing the theoretical noise body wave sources with the sources inferred from beamforming analysis of the three seismogram components recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network. We use rotated traces for the beamforming analysis, and we show that we clearly detect P waves generated by ocean gravity wave interactions along the track of typhoon Ioke (2006 September). We do not detect the corresponding SV waves, and we demonstrate that this is because their amplitude is too weak.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1096-1106
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Body waves ; Site effects ; Theoretical Seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-09-08
    Description: The aim of this study is to conduct a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Turkey and neighboring regions, using the most recently developed attenuation relationships. The seismicity database is compiled from numerous sources, and the tectonic setting of the region has been studied in detail. Utilizing these two major categories of information together with the selected attenuation relationships, the seismic source zones are determined, and PGA contour maps are produced for specific return periods. The study is intended to serve as a reference for more advanced approaches and to stimulate discussion and suggestions on the database, assumptions and the inputs, and to pave the way for the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard in the site selection and the design of engineering structures.
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Seismic hazard assessment ; Turkey ; earthquake ; UN/IDNDR ; Aegean sea ; North-Anatolian Fault ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Format: 4758203 bytes
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-06-20
    Description: We produce probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for the Central Apennines, Italy, using time-dependent models that are characterized using a Brownian Passage Time (BPT) recurrence model. Using aperiodicity parameters, of 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7, we examine the sensitivity of the probabilistic ground motion and its deaggregation to these parameters. For the seismic source model we incorporate both smoothed historical seismicity over the area and geological information on faults. We use the maximum magnitude model for the fault sources together with a uniform probability of rupture along the fault (floating fault model) to model fictitious faults to account for earthquakes that cannot be correlated with known geologic structural segmentation. We show maps for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 1.0-Hz spectral acceleration (SA1) on rock having 10% probability of exceedence (PE) in 50 years. We produce maps to compare the separate contributions of smoothed seismicity and fault components. In addition we construct maps that show sensitivity of the hazard for different parameters and the Poisson model. For the Poisson model, the addition of fault sources to the smoothed seismicity raises the hazard by 50 % at locations where the smoothed seismicity contributes the highest hazard, and up to 100 % at locations where the hazard from smoothed seismicity is low. For the strongest aperiodicity parameter (smallest ), the hazard may further increase 60-80 % or more or may decrease by as much as 20 %, depending on the recency of the last event on the fault that dominates the hazard at a given site. In order to present the most likely earthquake magnitude and/or the most likely source-site distance for scenario studies, we deaggregate the seismic hazard for SA1 and PGA for two important cities (Roma and l’Aquila) . For PGA, both locations show the predominance of local sources, having magnitudes of about 5.3 and 6.5 respectively. For SA1 at a site in Rome, there is significant contribution from local smoothed seismicity, and an additional contribution from the more distant Apennine faults having magnitude around 6.8. For l’Aquila, the predominant sources remain local. In order to show the variety of impact of different values we also obtained deaggregations for another three sites. In general, as decreases (periodicity increases), the deaggregation indicates that the hazard is highest near faults with the highest earthquakes rates. This effect is strongest for the long-period (1 s) ground motions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 585-610
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Time dependent ; Deaggregations ; Central Apennines, Italy ; Uncertainties ; Aperiodicity ; PSHA ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-06-14
    Description: A regionalization of the Italian territory, strictly based on seismotectonic zoning and the main geodynamic features of the Italian area, is proposed for intermediate-term earthquake prediction with CN algorithm. Three regions, composed of adjacent zones with the same seismogenic behaviour or with transitional properties, are selected for the north, centre and south of Italy, compatibly with the kinematic model. This regionalization allows us an average reduction of the spatial uncertainty of about 35% for the northern and central regions, and of about 70% for the southern region in comparison with previous studies. A general reduction of the percentage of total TIPs, with respect to the results obtained neglecting the seismotectonic zoning, has been observed as well. Therefore, it seems that the seismotectonic model is a useful tool selection of the fault systems involved in the preparation of strong earthquakes. The successful attempt of catalogue upgrading, accomplished using the NEIC Preliminary Determinations of Epicentres, appears to substantiate the robustness of the algorithm against changes in the catalogue.
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; CN algorithm ; Italy ; seismotectonic model ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Format: 4999219 bytes
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-06-14
    Description: Viene dato ragguaglio sulle operazioni di rilievo macrosismico relative al terremoto aquilano del 6 Aprile 2009 (Mw=6.3; Io=IX MCS) condotte dal QUEST e del risultato conseguito in termini di distribuzione delle intensità per 316 località visitate. Il terremoto, che ha provocato la distruzione di numerosi centri della conca Aquilana ed oltre 300 vittime, mostra un’area mesosimica allungata in direzione NW-SE, con una coda di forti risentimenti verso SE nella conca subèquana. Questo è in accordo con la geometria, cinematica e dinamica della rottura della struttura sismogenetica, individuata anche grazie alle evidenze di fagliazione di superficie seguite per circa 20 km lungo il versante nordorientale della Valle dell’Aterno, tra Collebrincioni e San Demetrio ne’ Vestini (sistema di faglie di Paganica-San Demetrio). Tale struttura viene anche indicata responsabile del terremoto “gemello” del 1461, oltre che da eventi di più elevata energia, come analisi paleosismologiche e rilievi geologici in corso hanno confermato.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1.11. TTC - Osservazioni e monitoraggio macrosismico del territorio nazionale
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Description: open
    Keywords: L'Aquila 2009 ; macroseismics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-06-14
    Description: Rayleigh wave group velocity dispersion measurements from local and regional earthquakes are used to interpret the lithospheric structure in the Gulf of California region. We compute group velocity maps for Rayleigh waves from 10 to 150 s using earthquakes recorded by broadband stations of the Network of Autonomously Recording Seismographs in Baja California and Mexico mainland, UNM in Mexico, BOR, DPP and GOR in southern California and TUC in Arizona. The study area is gridded in 120 longitude cells by 180 latitude cells, with an equal spacing of 10 × 10 km. Assuming that each gridpoint is laterally homogeneous, for each period the tomographic maps are inverted to produce a 3-D lithospheric shear wave velocity model for the region. Near the Gulf of California rift axis, we found three prominent low shear wave velocity regions, which are associated with mantle upwelling near the Cerro Prieto volcanic field, the Ballenas Transform Fault and the East Pacific Rise. Upwelling of the mantle at lithospheric and asthenospheric depths characterizes most of the Gulf. This more detailed finding is new when compared to previous surface wave studies in the region. A low-velocity zone in northcentral Baja at ∼28oN which extends east–south–eastwards is interpreted as an asthenospheric window. In addition, we also identify a well-defined high-velocity zone in the upper mantle beneath central-western Baja California, which correlates with the previously interpreted location of the stalled Guadalupe and Magdalena microplates. We interpret locations of the fossil slab and slab window in light of the distribution of unique post-subduction volcanic rocks in the Gulf of California and Baja California.We also observe a high-velocity anomaly at 50-km depth extending down to ∼130 km near the southwestern Baja coastline and beneath Baja, which may represent another remnant of the Farallon slab.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1861-1877
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: surface waves ; seismic tomography ; dynamics of lithosphere and mantle ; crustal structure ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-06-10
    Description: Earthquake forecasts are usually underinformed, and can be plagued by uncertainty in terms of the most appropriate model, and parameter values used in that model. In this paper, we explore the application of two different models to the same seismogenic area. The first is a renewal model based on the characteristic earthquake hypothesis that uses historical/palaeoseismic recurrence times, and fixed rupture geometries. The hazard rate is modified by the Coulomb static stress change caused by nearby earthquakes that occurred since the latest characteristic earthquake. The second model is a very simple earthquake simulator based on plate-motion, or fault-slip rates and adoption of a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency distribution. This information is commonly available even if historical and palaeoseismic recurrence data are lacking. The intention is to develop and assess a simulator that has a very limited parameter set that could be used to calculate earthquake rates in settings that are not as rich with observations of large-earthquake recurrence behaviour as the Nankai trough. We find that the use of convergence rate as a primary constraint allows the simulator to replicate much of the spatial distribution of observed segmented rupture rates along the Nankai, Tonankai and Tokai subduction zones. Although we note rate differences between the two forecast methods in the Tokai zone, we also see enough similarities between simulations and observations to suggest that very simple earthquake rupture simulations based on empirical data and fundamental earthquake laws could be useful forecast tools in information-poor settings.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1673-1688
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Time series analysis ; Spatial analysis ; Probability distributions ; Seismic cycle ; Earthquake interaction ; forecasting, and prediction ; Statistical seismology. ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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