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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk  (18)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress
  • Elsevier Science Limited  (26)
  • Nature Publishing Group  (3)
  • Blackwell Editor
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  • 1
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    Elsevier Science Limited
    Publication Date: 2022-06-08
    Description: Sound scientific management of volcanic crises is the primary tool to reduce significantly volcanic risk in the short-term. At present, a wide variety of qualitative or semi-quantitative strategies is adopted, and there is not yet a commonly accepted quantitative and general strategy. Pre-eruptive processes are extremely com- plicated, with many degrees of freedom nonlinearly coupled, and poorly known, so scientists must quantify eruption forecasts through the use of probabilities. On the other hand, this also forces decision-makers to make decisions under uncertainty. We review the present state of the art in this field in order to identify the main gaps of the existing procedures. Then, we put forward a general quantitative procedure that may overcome the present barriers, providing guidelines on how probabilities may be used to take rational miti- gation actions. These procedures constitute a crucial link between science and society; they can be used to establish objective and transparent decision-making protocols and also clarify the role and responsibility of each partner involved in managing a crisis.
    Description: Published
    Description: 181-189
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: eruption forecasting ; decision making ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-12-16
    Description: The detailed analysis of stratigraphy allowed the reconstruction of the complex volcanic history of La Fossa di Vulcano. An eruptive activity mainly driven by superficial phreatomagmatic explosions emerged. A statistical analysis of the pyroclastic Successions led to the identification of dilute pyroclastic density currents (base surges) as the most recurrent events, followed by fallout of dense ballistic blocks. The scale of events is related to the amount of magma involved in each explosion. Events involving about 1 million cm3 of magma occurred during recent eruptions. They led to the formation of hundreds of meters thick dilute pyroclastic density currents, moving down the volcano slope at velocities exceeding 50 m/s. The dispersion of density currents affected the whole Vulcano Porto area, the Vulcanello area. They also overrode the Fossa Caldera's rim, spreading over the Piano area. For the aim of hazard assessment, deposits from La Fossa Cone and La Fossa Caldera were studied in detail, to depict the eruptive scenarios at short-term and at long-term. By means of physical models that make use of deposit particle features, the impact parameters have been calculated. They are dynamic pressure and particle volumetric concentration of density currents, and impact energy of ballistic blocks. A quantitative hazard map, based on these impact parameters, is presented. It could be useful for territory planning and for the calculation of the expected damage.
    Description: Published
    Description: 364-384
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Volcanic Hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: In this paper, the relationship between the dike-forming magmatic intrusions and the faulting process at Mount Etna is investigated in terms of Coulomb stress changes. As case study, a complete time-dependent 3-D finite element model for the 2002-2003 eruption at Mount Etna is presented. In the model, which takes into account the topography, medium heterogeneities and principal fault systems in a viscoelastic/plastic rheology, we sequentially activated three dike-forming processes and looked at the induced temporal evolution of the Coulomb stress changes, during the co-intrusive and post-intrusive periods, on Pernicana and Santa Venerina faults. We investigated where and when fault slips were encouraged or not, and consequently how earthquakes may have been triggered. Results show positive Coulomb stress changes for the Pernicana Fault in accordance to the time, location and depth of the 27th October 2002 Pernicana earthquake (Md = 3.5). The amount of Coulomb stress changes in the area of Santa Venerina Fault, as induced by dike-forming intrusions only, is instead almost negligible and, probably, not sufficient to trigger the 29th October Santa Venerina earthquake (Md = 4.4), occurred two days after the start of the eruption. The necessary Coulomb stress change value to trigger this earthquake is instead reached if we consider it as induced by the 27th October Pernicana biggest earthquake, combined with the dike-induced stresses.
    Description: MED-SUV FP7 Project (Grant number 308665)
    Description: Published
    Description: 185-196
    Description: 4V. Dinamica dei processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Coulomb stress changes ; Finite Element Model ; Viscoelasticity ; Earthquakes ; Mount Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.06. Measurements and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.08. Theory and Models ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.03. Inverse methods
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-04-07
    Description: Recognizing the seismogenic source of major historical earthquakes, particularly when these have occurred offshore, is a long-standing issue across the Mediterranean Sea and elsewhere. The destructive earthquake (M ~7) that struck western Calabria (southern Italy) on the night of 8 September 1905 is one such case. having various authors proposed a seismogenic source, with apparently diverse hypotheses and without achieving a unique solution. To gain novel insight into the crustal volume where the 1905 earthquake took place and to seek a more robust solution for the seismogenic source associated with this destructive event, we carried out a well-targeted multidisciplinary survey within the Gulf of S. Eufemia (SE Tyrrhenian Sea), collecting geophysical data, oceanographic measurements, and biological, chemical and sedimentary samples. We identified three main tectonic features affecting the sedimentary basin in the Gulf of S. Eufemia: 1) a NE-SW striking, ca. 13-km-long, normal fault, here named S. Eufemia Fault; 2) a WNW-striking polyphased fault system; and 3) a likely E-W trending lineament. Among these, the normal fault shows evidence of activity witnessed by the deformed recent sediments and by its seabed rupture along which, locally, fluid leakage occurs. Features in agreement with the anomalous distribution of prokaryotic abundance and biopolymeric C content, resulted from the shallow sediments analyses. The numerous seismogenic sources proposed in the literature during the past 15 years make up a composite framework of this sector of western Calabria, that we tested against a) the geological evidence from the newly acquired dataset, and b) the regional seismotectonic models. Such assessment allows us to propose the NE-SW striking normal fault as the most probable candidate for the seismogenic source of the 1905 earthquake. Re-appraising a major historical earthquake as the 1905 one enhances the seismotectonic picture of western Calabria. Further understanding of the region and better constraining the location of the seismogenic source may be attained through integrated interpretation of our data together with a) on-land field evidence, and b) seismological modeling.
    Description: Published
    Description: 62-75
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: seismogenic source ; earthquake ; seismotectonics ; prokaryotes ; Calabrian Arc ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.06. Seismic methods ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.04. Marine geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.10. Stratigraphy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-03-22
    Description: Simultaneous collapse of ancient historical buildings followed by sudden reconstruction, deduced from archaeological reports, provides indirect evidence for an earthquake in ancient Catania (Sicily, southern Italy). This event in the middle of the 4th century AD is consistent with the 365 AD seismic sequence known from historical sources, which report, wide destruction in Sicily and in the Mediterranean area. This period was characterized by political, economic, and social instability in the Roman empire. In this historical context, the earthquake effects may have been obscured or overlooked to some extent and consequently the documentary information on ancient earthquakes, when available, is sparse and lacking objectivity. This study covers three historical buildings in Catania and provides precise dating of earthquake destruction.
    Description: Published
    Description: 336-343
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Archaeoseismology ; Historical seismicity ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2021-03-01
    Description: In this work, we tackle the problem of seismic hazard at Etna deriving from the recurrent seismogenic activity of local faults, by adopting two independent methods based on probabilistic approaches. We assess the hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity and represent the occurrence probability calculated for different exposure times both on maps and at fault scale. Seismic hazard maps obtained by applying the “site approach” through the SASHA code and a new probabilistic attenuation model, indicate the eastern flank of the volcano as the most hazardous, with expected intensity (Iexp) in 50 years (i.e. the standard exposure time adopted in the seismic regulations) ranging from degrees IX to X EMS. In shorter exposure periods (20, 10, 5 years), values of Iexp up to IX are also reached in the same area, but they are clearly determined by the earthquakes generated by the Timpe fault system. In order to quantify the contribution of local seismogenic sources to the hazard of the region, we reconstruct the seismic history of each fault and calculate with SASHA the probability that earthquakes of a given intensity may be generated in different exposure times. Results confirm the high level of hazard due to the S. Tecla, Moscarello and Fiandaca faults especially for earthquakes of moderate intensity, i.e. VI≤I0≤VII, with probabilities respectively exceeding 50% and 20% in 10 years, and 30% and 10% in 5 years. Occurrence probability of major events (I0≥VIII) at the fault scale has also been investigated by statistics on intertimes. Under stationary assumptions we obtain a probability of 6.8% in 5 years for each structure; by introducing the time-dependency (time elapsed since the last event occurred on each fault) through a BPT model, we identify the Moscarello and S. Tecla faults as the most probable sources to be activated in the next 5 years (2013–2017). This result may represent a useful indication to establish priority criteria for actions aimed at reducing seismic risk at a local scale.
    Description: Published
    Description: 158-169
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Macroseismic intensity ; Seismic history ; Occurrence probability ; Time-dependent renewal process ; Individual sources ; Seismic hazard ; Mt. Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2021-03-01
    Description: In this paper, we apply a probabilistic procedure to model the attenuation of the macroseismic intensity in the Mt. Etna region, which allows estimating probabilistic seismic scenarios. Starting from the local earthquake catalogue, we select a dataset of 47 events having epicentral intensity I0 from VI to IX–X EMS, and update the model parameters previously achieved for Italy according to the Bayesian paradigm. For each class of epicentral intensity I0, we then estimate the probability distribution of the intensity at a site conditioned on the epicentre-site distance through a binomial-beta model, under the assumption of a point seismic source and isotropic decay (circular). The mode of the distribution is taken as the expected intensity Is at that site. Since the strongest earthquakes show a preferential propagation of shaking along the fault strike and a rapid decrease in the perpendicular direction, we also consider the anisotropic decay (elliptical) of the intensity due to a linear source (finite fault). We therefore transform the plane so that the ellipse has the length of the fault rupture as maximum axis and its strike as azimuth is changed into a circle with fixed diameter; then we apply the probabilistic model obtained for the isotropic case to the modified data. The entire calculation procedure is implemented in the software PROSCEN which, given the location and the epicentral intensity (and eventually the fault parameters) of the earthquake to be simulated, generates the probabilistic seismic scenario according to the isotropic and anisotropic models of attenuation. The results can be plotted on grid maps representing (1) the intensity that can be exceeded with a fixed probability, or (2) the probability of exceeding a fixed intensity value. The first representation may also find application in seismic monitoring at Etna volcano, in order to produce real-time intensity ShakeMaps based on the instrumental parameters calculated by the automatic earthquake processing system.
    Description: Published
    Description: 149-157
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Macroseismic intensity ; Attenuation Probability distribution ; Source models ; Seismic scenario ; Mt. Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: We present a coupled fluid-dynamic and electromagnetic model for volcanic ash plumes. In a forward approach, the model is able to simulate the plume dynamics from prescribed input flow conditions and generate the corresponding synthetic thermal infrared (TIR) image, allowing a comparison with field-based observations. An inversion procedure is then developed to retrieve vent conditions from TIR images, and to independently estimate the mass eruption rate. The adopted fluid-dynamic model is based on a one-dimensional, stationary description of a self-similar turbulent plume, for which an asymptotic analytical solution is obtained. The electromagnetic emission/absorption model is based on Schwarzschild's equation and on Mie's theory for disperse particles, and we assume that particles are coarser than the radiation wavelength (about 10 μm) and that scattering is negligible. In the inversion procedure, model parameter space is sampled to find the optimal set of input conditions which minimizes the difference between the experimental and the synthetic image. Application of the inversion procedure to an ash plume at Santiaguito (Santa Maria volcano, Guatemala) has allowed us to retrieve the main plume input parameters, namely mass flow rate, initial radius, velocity, temperature, gas mass ratio, entrainment coefficient and their related uncertainty. Moreover, by coupling with the electromagnetic model we have been able to obtain a reliable estimate of the equivalent Sauter diameter of the total particle size distribution. The presented method is general and, in principle, can be applied to the spatial distribution of particle concentration and temperature obtained by any fluid-dynamic model, either integral or multidimensional, stationary or time-dependent, single or multiphase. The method discussed here is fast and robust, thus indicating potential for applications to real-time estimation of ash mass flux and particle size distribution, which is crucial for model-based forecasts of the volcanic ash dispersal process.
    Description: Published
    Description: 129–147
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente
    Description: 5V. Sorveglianza vulcanica ed emergenze
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Volcanic ash plume ; Volcanic ash plume ; Thermal camera ; Inversion ; Mass flow ; Particle size ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.08. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.02. Experimental volcanism ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.04. Thermodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.01. Data processing ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.03. Inverse methods ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.05. Mathematical geophysics::05.05.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: Preceded by 14 days of intense seismic activity, a new eruption started on the south flank of Mt Etna, Sicily (Italy) early in the morning of 11 March 1669 opening up a series of NS eruptive fissures. The eruption is one of the most destructive flank eruptions of Etna in historical times; it lasted until 11 July, and was characterized by simultaneous explosive and effusive activity during the first three months, while only lava flow output in the last month. The activity built up the large composite cone of the ``Monti Rossi{'' at the lower end of the eruptive fissures, and caused severe damage to the nearby inhabited areas. The prolonged effusive activity generated lava flows for 〉15 km, which destroyed several villages and the western part of the town of Catania before reaching the coastline and entering the sea. In this paper, we examine the tephro-stratigraphy of the products of the explosie activity. An in-depth analysis of historical accounts was used to define the chronology of the main eruptive phases (precursors, explosive activity and initial effusive phenomena). The geology of the cone and of the fallout deposits were defined through a field survey over a distance of 5 km from the Monti Rossi. Textural (grain-size, morphological, componentry), density and petrological analyses of tephra samples provided a sedimentological, physical and geochemical characterization of erupted products. Integrating ground and historical data enabled defining the evolution of the cone, identifying and correlating four main cone-forming units. By tracing the dispersal map of the main distal tephra beds (the finer ash being dispersed mainly to the NE as far as Calabria and to the south of Sicily and the 10-cm isopach of the total deposit covering an area up to 53 km(2)), we estimated a total tephra fallout volume, including the Monti Rossi cone, of about 6.6 x 10(7) m(3) (about 32 x 10(7) m(3) DRE). The 1669 event can be considered an archetype of the most hazardous expected eruption on the densely populated flanks of Etna. Reconstructing the eruptive chronology and styles of the 1669 eruption therefore, represents the basic data to assess volcanic hazard from eventual similar flank events in the future. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}
    Description: Published
    Description: 115-133
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Mt. Etna 1669 Monti Rossi eruption Eruption dynamics Eruption scenario Explosive activity ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2017-12-11
    Description: We have performed leaching experiments on the fine (〈 2 mm) particulate sampled in seven active and quiescent volcanic systems in the Mediterranean area. We reacted the particulate both in pure water and in a synthetic gastric solution. The amount of As, Mn, Pb, Ba, U and Ni leached by pure water exceeded the MAC limits for drinking water in all the materials under investigation. We defined a tolerable ash intake index (TAI) to evaluate the impact of ash ingestion, and we find that 0.2 g and 12 g of ingested fine ash from Vesuvius and Vulcano are enough to exceed the safety limits for Pb and As. Six grams of fine ashes from Stromboli are sufficient to overstep the safety limits for As. Based on our mineralogical characterisation of the particulate, we expect that the submillimetric ash fraction, with a higher surface/volume ratio, releases a greater relative amount of trace metals, which are concentrated in the thin surface layer produced by the reaction of the pristine volcanic particles with coexisting volcanic gases. This means that our measurements represent lower bounds to the actual amount of metal released in aqueous solutions by the volcanic ashes from the locations under investigation. Our results place the first constraints on the mobilisation of toxic elements from volcanic ash, which are necessary to assess the associated potential health risk of volcanic areas.
    Description: Published
    Description: 16-28
    Description: 3V. Proprietà dei magmi e dei prodotti vulcanici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Ash ; Volcanoes ; Mediterranean ; Trace Metals ; Toxicity ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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