ALBERT

Description: McMurdo Sound sea ice can generally be partitioned into two regimes: (1) a stable fast-ice cover, forming south of approximately 77.6∘ S around March–April and then breaking out the following January–February, and (2) a more dynamic region north of 77.6∘ S that the McMurdo Sound and Ross Sea polynyas regularly impact. In 2019, a stable fast-ice cover formed unusually late due to repeated break-out events. We analyse the 2019 sea-ice conditions and relate them to a modified storm index (MSI), a proxy for southerly wind events. We find there is a strong correlation between the timing of break-out events and several unusually large MSI events.

Description: Icequakes are the result of processes occurring within the ice mass or between the ice and its environment. Studying icequakes provides a unique view on ice dynamics, specifically on the basal conditions. Changes in conditions due to environmental or climate changes are reflected in icequakes. Counting and characterizing icequakes is thus essential to monitor them. Most of the icequakes recorded by the seismic station at the Belgian Princess Elisabeth Antarctica Station (PE) have small amplitudes corresponding to maximal displacements of a few nanometres. Their detection threshold is highly variable because of the rapid and strong changes in the local seismic noise level. Therefore, we evaluated the influence of katabatic winds on the noise measured by the well-protected PE surface seismometer. Our purpose is to identify whether the lack of icequake detection during some periods could be associated with variations in the processes generating them or simply with a stronger seismic noise linked to stronger wind conditions. We observed that the wind mainly influences seismic noise at frequencies greater than 1 Hz. The seismic noise power exhibits a bilinear correlation with the wind velocity, with two different slopes at a wind velocity lower and greater than 6 m s−1 and with, for example at a period of 0.26 s, a respective variation of 0.4 dB (m −1 s) and 1.4 dB (m −1 s). These results allowed a synthetic frequency and wind-speed-dependent noise model to be presented that explains the behaviour of the wind-induced seismic noise at PE, which shows that seismic noise amplitude increases exponentially with increasing wind speed. This model enables us to study the influence of the wind on the original seismic dataset, which improves the observation of cryoseismic activity near the PE station.

Description: The earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) in China have achieved great progress, with warning alerts being successfully delivered to the public in some regions. We examined the performance of the EEWS in China's Sichuan Province during the 2019 Changning earthquake. Although its technical effectiveness was tested with the first alert released 10 s after the earthquake, we found that a big gap existed between the EEWS's message and the public's response. We highlight the importance of EEWS alert effectiveness and public participation for long-term resiliency, such as delivering useful alert messages through appropriate communication channels and training people to understand and properly respond.

Description: Recent climate change and vegetation greening have important implications for global terrestrial hydrological cycles and other ecosystem functions, raising concerns about the watershed water supply capacity for large water diversion projects. To address this emerging concern, we built a hybrid model based on the Coupled Carbon and Water (CCW) and Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) models and conducted a case study on the upper Han River basin (UHRB) in Central China that serves as the water source area to the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP). Significant vegetation greening occurred in the UHRB during 2001–2018, largely driven by the widespread afforestation in the region, with the normalized difference vegetation index increasing at a rate of 0.5±0.1 % yr−1 (p

Description: We assess the influence of snow on sea ice in experiments using the Community Earth System Model version 2 for a preindustrial and a 2xCO2 climate state. In the preindustrial climate, we find that increasing simulated snow accumulation on sea ice results in thicker sea ice and a cooler climate in both hemispheres. The sea ice mass budget response differs fundamentally between the two hemispheres. In the Arctic, increasing snow results in a decrease in both congelation sea ice growth and surface sea ice melt due to the snow's impact on conductive heat transfer and albedo, respectively. These factors dominate in regions of perennial ice but have a smaller influence in seasonal ice areas. Overall, the mass budget changes lead to a reduced amplitude in the annual cycle of ice thickness. In the Antarctic, with increasing snow, ice growth increases due to snow–ice formation and is balanced by larger basal ice melt, which primarily occurs in regions of seasonal ice. In a warmer 2xCO2 climate, the Arctic sea ice sensitivity to snow depth is small and reduced relative to that of the preindustrial climate. In contrast, in the Antarctic, the sensitivity to snow on sea ice in the 2xCO2 climate is qualitatively similar to the sensitivity in the preindustrial climate. These results underscore the importance of accurately representing snow accumulation on sea ice in coupled Earth system models due to its impact on a number of competing processes and feedbacks that affect the melt and growth of sea ice.

Description: Reliable information on building stock and its vulnerability is important for understanding societal exposure to floods. Unfortunately, developing countries have less access to and availability of this information. Therefore, calculations for flood damage assessments have to use the scarce information available, often aggregated on a national or district level. This study aims to improve current assessments of flood damage by extracting individual building characteristics and estimate damage based on the buildings' vulnerability. We carry out an object-based image analysis (OBIA) of high-resolution (11 cm ground sample distance) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) imagery to outline building footprints. We then use a support vector machine learning algorithm to classify the delineated buildings. We combine this information with local depth–damage curves to estimate the economic damage for three villages affected by the 2019 January river floods in the southern Shire Basin in Malawi and compare this to a conventional, pixel-based approach using aggregated land use to denote exposure. The flood extent is obtained from satellite imagery (Sentinel-1) and corresponding water depths determined by combining this with elevation data. The results show that OBIA results in building footprints much closer to OpenStreetMap data, in which the pixel-based approach tends to overestimate. Correspondingly, the estimated total damage from the OBIA is lower (EUR 10 140) compared to the pixel-based approach (EUR 15 782). A sensitivity analysis illustrates that uncertainty in the derived damage curves is larger than in the hazard or exposure data. This research highlights the potential for detailed and local damage assessments using UAV imagery to determine exposure and vulnerability in flood damage and risk assessments in data-poor regions.

Description: Avalanche warning services publish avalanche condition reports, often called avalanche bulletins, to help backcountry recreationists make informed risk management choices regarding when and where to travel in avalanche terrain. To be successful, these bulletins must be interpreted and applied by users prior to entering avalanche terrain. However, few avalanche bulletin elements have been empirically tested for their efficacy in communicating hazard information. The objective of this study is to explicitly test the effectiveness of three different graphics representing the aspect and elevation of avalanche problems on users' ability to apply the information. To address this question, we conducted an online survey in the spring of 2020 that presented participants with one of three graphic renderings of avalanche problem information and asked them to rank a series of route options in order of their exposure to the described hazard. After the route ranking tasks, users were presented with all three graphics and asked to rate how effective they thought the graphics were. Our analysis data set included responses from 3056 backcountry recreationists with a variety of backgrounds and avalanche safety training levels. Using a series of generalized linear mixed effects models, our analysis shows that a graphic format that combines the aspect and elevation information for each avalanche problem is the most effective graphic for helping users understand the avalanche hazard conditions because it resulted in higher success in picking the correct exposure ranking, faster completion times, and was rated by users to be the most effective. These results are consistent with existing research on the impact of graphics on cognitive load and can be applied by avalanche warning services to improve the communication of avalanche hazard to readers of their avalanche bulletins.

Description: The High Resolution Snow & Ice Monitoring Service was launched in 2020 to provide near-real-time, pan-European snow and ice information at 20 m resolution from Sentinel-2 observations. Here we present an evaluation of the snow detection using a database of snow depth observations from 1764 stations across Europe over the hydrological year 2016–2017. We find a good agreement between both datasets with an accuracy (proportion of correct classifications) of 94 % and kappa of 0.81. More accurate (+6 % kappa) retrievals are obtained by excluding low-quality pixels at the cost of a reduced coverage (−13 % data).

Description: Numerical models predict that discharge from the polar ice sheets will become the largest contributor to sea-level rise over the coming centuries. However, the predicted amount of ice discharge and associated thinning depends on how well ice sheet models reproduce glaciological processes, such as ice flow in regions of large topographic relief, where ice flows around bedrock summits (i.e. nunataks) and through outlet glaciers. The ability of ice sheet models to capture long-term ice loss is best tested by comparing model simulations against geological data. A benchmark for such models is ice surface elevation change, which has been constrained empirically at nunataks and along margins of outlet glaciers using cosmogenic exposure dating. However, the usefulness of this approach in quantifying ice sheet thinning relies on how well such records represent changes in regional ice surface elevation. Here we examine how ice surface elevations respond to the presence of strong topographic relief that acts as an obstacle by modelling ice flow around and between idealised nunataks during periods of imposed ice sheet thinning. We find that, for realistic Antarctic conditions, a single nunatak can exert an impact on ice thickness over 20 km away from its summit, with its most prominent effect being a local increase (decrease) of the ice surface elevation of hundreds of metres upstream (downstream) of the obstacle. A direct consequence of this differential surface response for cosmogenic exposure dating is a delay in the time of bedrock exposure upstream relative to downstream of a nunatak summit. A nunatak elongated transversely to ice flow is able to increase ice retention and therefore impose steeper ice surface gradients, while efficient ice drainage through outlet glaciers produces gentler gradients. Such differences, however, are not typically captured by continent-wide ice sheet models due to their coarse grid resolutions. Their inability to capture site-specific surface elevation changes appears to be a key reason for the observed mismatches between the timing of ice-free conditions from cosmogenic exposure dating and model simulations. We conclude that a model grid refinement over complex topography and information about sample position relative to ice flow near the nunatak are necessary to improve data–model comparisons of ice surface elevation and therefore the ability of models to simulate ice discharge in regions of large topographic relief.

Description: Ice core water isotope records from Greenland and Antarctica are a valuable proxy for paleoclimate reconstruction, yet the processes influencing the climate signal stored in the isotopic composition of the snow are being challenged and revisited. Apart from precipitation input, post-depositional processes such as wind-driven redistribution and vapor–snow exchange processes at and below the surface are hypothesized to contribute to the isotope climate signal subsequently stored in the ice. Recent field studies have shown that surface snow isotopes vary between precipitation events and co-vary with vapor isotopes, which demonstrates that vapor–snow exchange is an important driving mechanism. Here we investigate how vapor–snow exchange processes influence the isotopic composition of the snowpack. Controlled laboratory experiments under forced sublimation show an increase in snow isotopic composition of up to 8 ‰ δ18O in the uppermost layer due to sublimation, with an attenuated signal down to 3 cm snow depth over the course of 4–6 d. This enrichment is accompanied by a decrease in the second-order parameter d-excess, indicating kinetic fractionation processes. Our observations confirm that sublimation alone can lead to a strong enrichment of stable water isotopes in surface snow and subsequent enrichment in the layers below. To compare laboratory experiments with realistic polar conditions, we completed four 2–3 d field experiments at the East Greenland Ice Core Project site (northeast Greenland) in summer 2019. High-resolution temporal sampling of both natural and isolated snow was conducted under clear-sky conditions and demonstrated that the snow isotopic composition changes on hourly timescales. A change of snow isotope content associated with sublimation is currently not implemented in isotope-enabled climate models and is not taken into account when interpreting ice core isotopic records. However, our results demonstrate that post-depositional processes such as sublimation contribute to the climate signal recorded in the water isotopes in surface snow, in both laboratory and field settings. This suggests that the ice core water isotope signal may effectively integrate across multiple parameters, and the ice core climate record should be interpreted as such, particularly in regions of low accumulation.