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  • 1
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    Futures Market Failure? (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-12-13
    Description: In a well-functioning futures market, the futures price at expiration equals the price of the underlying asset. This condition failed to hold in grain markets for most of 2005-2010, calling into question the ability of these markets to perform their price discovery and risk management functions. During this period, futures contracts expired up to 35% above the cash grain price. We develop a dynamic rational expectations model of commodity storage that explains how these recent convergence failures were generated by the institutional structure of the delivery system. When delivery occurs on a grain futures contract, the firm on the short side of the market provides a delivery instrument (a warehouse receipt or shipping certificate) to the firm on the long side of the market. The firm taking delivery may hold the delivery instrument indefinitely, providing it pays a daily storage rate. The futures exchange sets the maximum allowable storage rate at a fixed value. We show that non-convergence arises in equilibrium when the market price of physical grain storage exceeds the maximum storage rate on delivery instruments. We call the difference between the price of carrying physical grain and the maximum storage rate the wedge , and demonstrate theoretically and empirically that the magnitude of the non-convergence equals the expected present discounted value of a function of future wedges.
    Keywords: G13 - Contingent Pricing ; Futures Pricing, G14 - Information and Market Efficiency ; Event Studies, Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 2
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    Gone in Ten Minutes: Intraday Evidence of Announcement Effects in the Electronic Corn Futures Market (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-09-06
    Description: This article investigates the announcement effects of major USDA reports using intraday Chicago Board of Trade corn futures prices and trading volume from the electronic trading platform for July 2009 to May 2012. Focusing on intraday market reactions, we analyze the extent to which new information impacts and is rapidly reflected in prices. Results show that USDA reports contain substantial information for market participants. Strongest price reactions to the releases are found immediately after the market opens, and market reactions persist for approximately ten minutes. The electronic corn futures market quickly incorporates this new public information, and little evidence exists to support systematic under- or overreactions in prices. Other more subtle reactions occur in the last trading session before USDA announcements as traders adjust their market exposure in anticipation of the release.
    Keywords: D80 - General, G14 - Information and Market Efficiency ; Event Studies, Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 2040-5790
    Electronic ISSN: 2040-5804
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 3
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    Determinants of Occupational Safety for Agribusiness Workers (2014)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2014-09-06
    Description: Increases in crop yields and changing cropping patterns have placed stress on agribusiness handling and storage facilities. The objective of this research is to gain insight into the relationship between safety culture and safety performance, and to identify the determinants of safety culture in agribusinesses. The research suggests that investments in labor inputs such as increased training, consistent discipline, and recognition of safety achievements all increase safety culture. Furthermore, improvements in employee perceptions of safety culture have a positive impact on reducing employee injuries. Congress has recently funded nine centers to work on occupational health and safety research in agriculture, fisheries, and forestry.
    Keywords: J43 - Agricultural Labor Markets, L66 - Food ; Beverages ; Cosmetics ; Tobacco ; Wine and Spirits, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 2040-5790
    Electronic ISSN: 2040-5804
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 4
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    Adapting Contract Theory to Fit Contract Farming (2014)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2014-09-02
    Description: This article discusses the current state of contract theory and its usefulness for conceptualizing issues related to agricultural contracting. The paper will explore the limitations of existing theory for applied work, and what methodological improvements are needed to enhance the usefulness of the theory to agricultural economists. One pervasive problem is that the economic literature on contracts is rather fragmented and the various methodological strands are narrow in their focus. As such, agricultural economists should engage in methodological research to develop applied contracting models that can capture higher-order features of real-world agricultural contracts while delivering generalizable comparative statics predictions because contracting continues to expand along the entire modern food marketing channel. In the latter part of this article, a simple model is developed to illustrate how classic methodological approaches can be combined with recent developments in contract and game theory to construct applied theory models that are useful for capturing some important features of agricultural contracts.
    Keywords: D43 - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection, D82 - Asymmetric and Private Information, D86 - Economics of Contract: Theory, Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 5
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    Information, Mobile Telephony, and Traders' Search Behavior in Niger (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-09-02
    Description: Information and communications technologies have spread rapidly in developing countries. We investigate the impact of mobile phones on traders' search behavior in Niger by constructing a theoretical model of search in which traders engage in sequential search for the optimal sales price. Using a trader panel dataset spanning 2005–2007, we find empirical support for the model in that the duration of mobile phone coverage is associated with increased search activity. This effect evolves dynamically over time and is stronger for larger traders, who engage in arbitrage over longer distances. Results provide empirical evidence for the observed linkages between mobile telephony and price dispersion.
    Keywords: O10 - General, O30 - General, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 6
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    Impact of Third-party Contract Enforcement in Agricultural Markets--A Field Experiment in Vietnam (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-07-23
    Description: We study the effect of alleviating the information asymmetry regarding product quality that is widespread in contracts between agricultural producers and buyers in developing countries. Opportunistic buyers may underreport quality levels to farmers to reduce the price that they have to pay. In response, farmers may curb investment, thereby negatively affecting farm productivity. In an experiment, we entitle randomly selected smallholder dairy farmers in Vietnam, who are contracted by a large company, to independently verify milk testing results. Results indicate that treatment farmers use 12% more inputs, and they also increase their output significantly. Some wider research and policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: C93 - Field Experiments, D82 - Asymmetric and Private Information, O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 7
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    Strength of Protection for Geographical Indications: Promotion Incentives and Welfare Effects (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-07-23
    Description: We address the question of how the strength of protection for geographical indications (GIs) affects the GI industry's promotion incentives, equilibrium market outcomes, and the distribution of welfare. Geographical indication producers engage in informative advertising by associating their true quality premium (relative to a substitute product) with a specific label emphasizing the GI's geographic origin. The extent to which the names/words of the GI label can be used and/or imitated by competing products—which depends on the strength of GI protection—determines how informative the GI promotion messages can be. Consumers’ heterogeneous preferences (vis-à-vis the GI quality premium) are modeled in a vertically differentiated framework. Both the GI industry and the substitute product industry are assumed to be competitive (with free entry). The model is calibrated and solved for alternative parameter values. Results show that producers of the GI and of the lower-quality substitute good have divergent interests: GI producers are better off with full protection, whereas the substitute good's producers prefer intermediate levels of protection (but they never prefer zero protection because they benefit indirectly if the GI producers’ incentives to promote are preserved). For consumers and aggregate welfare, the preferred level of protection depends on the model's parameters, with an intermediate level of protection being optimal in many circumstances.
    Keywords: D23 - Organizational Behavior ; Transaction Costs ; Property Rights, L15 - Information and Product Quality ; Standardization and Compatibility, M37 - Advertising, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 8
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    Pass-Through and Consumer Search: An Empirical Analysis (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-07-23
    Description: Retail-price pass-through is one of the most important issues facing manufacturers of consumer packaged goods. Although retailers tend to pass higher wholesale prices through to consumers quickly and completely, they often do not pass on trade promotions. Currently, asymmetric pass-through is commonly thought to result from retailers’ exercise of market power. Alternatively, it may be because of consumer search behavior and retailers’ competitive response. We test this theory using a panel threshold asymmetric error-correction model applied to wholesale and retail scanner data for ready-to-eat cereal for a number of retailers in the Los Angeles metropolitan market. We find that consumer search behavior contributes significantly to imperfect pass-through. By allowing pass-through to depend on market power and consumer search costs, we find results that are contrary to the conventional wisdom. Namely, market power causes retail prices to fall quickly and rise slowly, whereas consumer search behavior causes retail prices to rise quickly and fall slowly—precisely the "rockets and feathers" phenomenon.
    Keywords: C35 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, L13 - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets, L66 - Food ; Beverages ; Cosmetics ; Tobacco ; Wine and Spirits, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 9
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    Behavioral Responses and the Impact of New Agricultural Technologies: Evidence from a Double-blind Field Experiment in Tanzania (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-04-05
    Description: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in the social sciences are typically not double-blind, so participants know they are "treated" and will adjust their behavior accordingly. Such effort responses complicate the assessment of impact. To gauge the potential magnitude of effort responses we implement a conventional RCT and double-blind trial in rural Tanzania, and randomly allocate modern and traditional cowpea seed varieties to a sample of farmers. Effort responses can be quantitatively important—for our case they explain the entire "treatment effect on the treated" as measured in a conventional economic RCT. Specifically, harvests are the same for people who know they received the modern seeds and for people who did not know what type of seeds they got; however, people who knew they had received the traditional seeds did much worse. Importantly, we also find that most of the behavioral response is unobserved by the analyst, or at least not readily captured using coarse, standard controls.
    Keywords: Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 10
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    The Behavior of Bid-Ask Spreads in the Electronically-Traded Corn Futures Market (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-03-21
    Description: This is the first paper to analyze liquidity costs in agricultural futures markets based on the observed bid-ask spread (BAS) faced by market participants. The results reveal a highly liquid corn market that mostly offers order execution at minimum cost. The BAS responds negatively to volume and positively to price volatility, but also affects volume traded and price volatility. While statistically significant, these responses on a cents/bushel or a percentage basis are generally small. Liquidity costs are also virtually impervious to short-term changes in demand for spreading and trend-following trader activity, as well as differences from day-of-the-week changes in market activity. Much larger cents/bushel and percentage changes in BAS occur during commodity index trader roll periods and on USDA report release days. The roll period findings indicate a sunshine trading effect, while announcement effects identify the importance of unexpected information and adverse selection on order execution costs. Overall, our research demonstrates that the transition to electronic trading in the corn futures market has led to low and stable liquidity costs, despite the market turbulence in 2008–2009.
    Keywords: C36- Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading volume ; Bond Interest Rates, Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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