ALBERT

Note: Contents: 1 Introduction and examples. - 1.1 Introduction. - 1.2 Why Bayes?. - 1.2.1 Estimating the probability of a rare event. - 1.2.2 Building a predictive model. - 1.3 Where we are going. - 1.4 Discussion and further references. - 2 Belief, probability and exchangeability. - 2.1 Belief functions and probabilities. - 2.2 Events, partitions and Bayes' rule. - 2.3 Independence. - 2.4 Random variables. - 2.4.1 Discrete random variables. - 2.4.2 Continuous random variables. - 2.4.3 Descriptions of distributions. - 2.5 Joint distributions. - 2.6 Independent random variables. - 2.7 Exchangeability. - 2.8 de Finetti's theorem. - 2.9 Discussion and further references. - 3 One-parameter models. - 3.1 The binomial model. - 3.1.1 Inference for exchangeable binary data. - 3.1.2 Confidence regions. - 3.2 The Poisson model. - 3.2.1 Posterior inference . - 3.2.2 Example: Birth rates. - 3.3 Exponential families and conjugate priors. - 3.4 Discussion and further references. - 4 Monte Carlo approximation. - 4.1 The Monte Carlo method. - 4.2 Posterior inference for arbitrary functions. - 4.3 Sampling from predictive distributions. - 4.4 Posterior predictive model checking. - 4.5 Discussion and further references. - 5 The normal model. - 5.1 The normal model. - 5.2 Inference for the mean, conditional on the variance. - 5.3 Joint inference for the mean and variance. - 5.4 Bias, variance and mean squared error. - 5.5 Prior specification based on expectations. - 5.6 The normal model for non-normal data. - 5.7 Discussion and further references. - 6 Posterior approximation with the Gibbs sampler. - 6.1 A semiconjugate prior distribution. - 6.2 Discrete approximations. - 6.3 Sampling from the conditional distributions. - 6.4 Gibbs sampling. - 6.5 General properties of the Gibbs sampler. - 6.6 Introduction to MCMC diagnostics. - 6.7 Discussion and further references. - 7 The multivariate normal model. - 7.1 The multivariate normal density. - 7.2 A semiconjugate prior distribution for the mean. - 7.3 The inverse-Wishart distribution. - 7.4 Gibbs sampling of the mean and covariance. - 7.5 Missing data and imputation. - 7.6 Discussion and further references. - 8 Group comparisons and hierarchical modeling. - 8.1 Comparing two groups. - 8.2 Comparing multiple groups. - 8.2.1 Exchangeability and hierarchical models. - 8.3 The hierarchical normal model. - 8.3.1 Posterior inference. - 8.4 Example: Math scores in U.S. public schools. - 8.4.1 Prior distributions and posterior approximation. - 8.4.2 Posterior summaries and shrinkage. - 8.5 Hierarchical modeling of means and variances. - 8.5.1 Analysis of math score data. - 8.6 Discussion and further references. - 9 Linear regression. - 9.1 The linear regression model. - 9.1.1 Least squares estimation for the oxygen uptake data. - 9.2 Bayesian estimation for a regression model. - 9.2.1 A semiconjugate prior distribution. - 9.2.2 Default and weakly informative prior distributions. - 9.3 Model selection. - 9.3.1 Bayesian model comparison. - 9.3.2 Gibbs sampling and model averaging. - 9.4 Discussion and further references. - 10 Nonconjugate priors and Metropolis-Hastings algorithms. - 10.1 Generalized linear models. - 10.2 The Metropolis algorithm. - 10.3 The Metropolis algorithm for Poisson regression. - 10.4 Metropolis, Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs. - 10.4.1 The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. - 10.4.2 Why does the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm work?. - 10.5 Combining the Metropolis and Gibbs algorithms. - 10.5.1 A regression model with correlated errors. - 10.5.2 Analysis of the ice core data. -

Note: Contents Introduction 1. Isotope hydrology: a historical perspective / P.K. Aggarwal, K. Froehlich, R. Gonfiantini, J.R. Gat ISOTOPIC AND NUCLEAR METHODOLOGIES 2. Isotopic tracers for obtaining hydrologic parameters / H. Moser, W. Rauert 3. Hydrologic process studies using radionuclides produced by cosmic rays / D.Lal 4. Stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes / L.L. Gourcy, M. Groening, P.K. Aggarwal 5. Tritium in the hydrologic cycle / R.L. Michel 6. Assessing sources and transformations of sulphate and nitrate in the hydrosphere using isotope techniques / B. Mayer 7. Rare gases / H.H. Loosli, R. Purtschert 8. U and Th series nuclides in natural waters / A. Kaufman 9. Optical isotope ratio measurements in hydrology / E.R.Th. Kerstel, H.A.J. Meijer HYDROLOGIC PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS 10. Some classical concepts of isotope hydrology / J.R. Gat 11. Istotopes in lake studies: a historical perspective / K.Froehlich, R. Gonfiantini, K. Rozanski 12. A review of isotope applications in catchment hydrology / T. Vitvar, P.K. Aggarwal, J.J. McDonnell 13. Contribution of isotopic and nuclear tracers to study of groundwaters / W.M. Edmunds 14. Dating of young groundwater / LN. Plummer 15. Dating of old groundwater - history, potential, limits and future / M.A. Geyh 16. Geotermal systems / Y.K. Kharaka, R.H. Mariner 17. Saline waters / J. Horita HYDROLOGIC PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS 18. Isotopes in atmospheric moisture / K. Rozanski 19. How much climatic information do water isotopes contain? / G. Hoffmann, M. Cuntz, J. Jouzel, M. Werner 20. Stable isotopes through the holocene as recorded in low-latitude, high-altitude ice cores / L.G. Thompson, M.E. Davis 21. Groundwater as an archive of climatic and environmental change / W.M. Edmunds 22. Isotopic palaeolimnology / F. Gasse Appendices A. List of seminal papers on isotope hydrology (the isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen) B. List of papers presented at the 1st IAEA Symposium on Isotope Hydrology (Tokyo, 1963) C. Excerpts from report of 1st IAEA Panel on the Application of Isotope Techniques in Hydrology

Note: TABLE OF CONTENTS: Preface / R. Matzke-Karasz, M. Schudack, K. Martens. - REVIEW PAPER. - Ostracod recovery in the aftermath of the Permian-Triassic crisis: Palaeozoic-Mesozoic turnover / S. Crasquin-Soleau, T. Galfetti, H. Bucher, S. Kershaw, Q. Feng. - OSTRACOD TAXONOMY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY. - The influence of El Niño 1997-98 on pelagic ostracods in the Humboldt Current Ecosystem off Peru / R. Castillo, T. Antezana, P. Ayón. - A new, interstitial species of Terrestricythere (Crustacea: Ostracoda) and its microdistribution at Orito Beach, northeastern Sea of Japan / S. F. Hiruta, S.-i. Hiruta, S. F. Mawatari. - Non-marine Ostracoda (Crustacea) of Banat district in Serbia / T. Karan-Žnidaršič, B. Petrov. - ECOLOGICAL FACTORS AFFECTING OSTRACOD DISTRIBUTION. - A year round comparative study on the population structures of pelagic Ostracoda in Admiralty Bay (Southern Ocean) / K. Blachowiak-Samolyk, M.V. Angel. - Water quality and diversity of the Recent ostracod fauna in lowland springs from Lombardy (northern Italy) / V. Pieri, C. Caserini, S. Gomarasca, K. Martens, G. Rossetti. - Factors affecting spatial and temporal distribution of Ostracoda assemblages in different macrophyte habitats of a shallow lake (Lake Fehér, Hungary) / A. Kiss. - Groundwater Ostracods from the arid Pilbara region of northwestern Australia: distribution and water chemistry / J. M. Reeves, P. De Deckker, S. A. Halse. - Ecological requirements of Ostracoda (Crustacea) in a heavily polluted shallow lake, Lake Yeniçağa (Bolu, Turkey) / O. Külköylüoğlu, M. Dügel, M. Kılıç. - Food selection in Eucypris virens (Crustacea: Ostracoda) under experimental conditions / O. Schmit, G. Rossetti, J. Vandekerkhove, F. Mezquita. - EVOLUTIONARY SIGNIFICANCE OF OSTRACOD MORPHOLOGY. - Extra-lobal and complex dimorphic features in Middle Devonian palaeocopine ostracods / G. Becker, W. K. Braun. - Evolutionary and taxonomic aspects within the species group Pseudocandona eremita (Vejdovský) (Ostracoda, Candonidae) / S. lepure, T. Namiotko, D. L. Danielopol. - On the origin of the putative furca of the Ostracoda (Crustacea) / C. Meisch. - Ultrastructure of the carapace margin in the Ostracoda (Arthropoda: Crustacea) / S. Yamada. - Ultrastructure of hepatopancreas and its possible role as a hematopoietic organ in non-marine cypridoidean ostracods (Crustacea) / R. Symonova. - OSTRACOD REPRODUCTION AND ONTOGENY. - Copulatory behaviour and sexual morphology of three Fabaeformiscandona Krstić, 1972 (Candoninae, Ostracoda, Crustacea) species from Japan, including descriptions of two new species / R. J. Smith, T. Kamiya. - Early release of eggs and embryos in a brooding ancient asexual ostracod: brood selection or a gambling strategy to increase fecundity? / R. L. Pinto, C. E. F. Rocha, K. Martens. - The ontogeny of appendages of Heterocypris salina (Brady, 1868) Ostracoda (Crustacea) / N. Kubanç, O. Özuluğ, C. Kubanç.

Note: Contents PREFACE CHAPTER 1. FROZEN GROUND 1.1 Frozen ground support systems Frozen earth wall Design considerations 1.2 Seasonally and perennially frozen ground Cold regions: definition Subsurface temperatures Active layer, Permafrost 1.3 Terrain features in permafrost areas Ground ice features Patterned ground 1.4 Engineering considerations Freezing process Thawing of frozen ground Frost action Useful aspects of frozen ground Ice as a construction material Problems CHAPTER 2. PHYSICAL AND THERMAL PROPERTIES 2.1 Composition and structure of frozen ground Soil types Phase relationships Ice phase Particle size and size distribution Consistency of cohesive soils 2.2 Soil classification Unified soil classification system Frozen soil classification 2.3 Water-ice phase relationships Unfrozen water in frozen soil Effect of solutes on freezing 2.4 Soil frost action Frost action process Frost susceptibility of soils Frost-heave forces Freeze-thaw effects on permeability 2.5 Thermal properties Thermal conductivity Heat capacity Thermal diffusiuity Latent heat of fusion Thermal expansion (or contraction) Problems CHAPTER 3. HEAT FLOW IN SOILS 3.1 Heat transfer at the ground surface Climatic factors Freezing (or thawing) indices Surface n-factor 3.2 Seasonal ground freezing (or thawing) Frost depth Thawing of frozen soil Design implications 3.3 Temperature below cooled (or heated) areas Steady state heat flow Transient temperatures Periodic heat flow 3.4 Thermal analysis: frozen ground support systems Single freeze pipe Wall formation Multiple rows of freeze pipes Problems CHAPTER 4. THAW BEHAVIOR OF FROZEN GROUND 4.1 Thaw settlement 4.2 Consolidation of thawing soils Thaw consolidation Residual stress in thawing soils 4.3 Thaw-consolidation in some layered systems Two layer soil problems Compressible soil ouer discrete ice layers Problems CHAPTER 5. MECHANICAL PROPERTIES OF FROZEN SOILS 5.1 Stress-strain-time and strength behavior Hydrostatic pressure effect on frozen soil behavior Shear stress effect on frozen soil behavior 5.2 Factors influencing creep and strength Creep of frozen soil under constant stress Stress-strain behavior under constant strain rate Ice content effect on strength Normal pressure effect on strength Strain rate effect on strength Temperature effect on strength Frozen soil behauior at cryogenic temperatures 5.3 Analytical representation of creep and strength data General creep equation Strength of frozen soils Comparison with Vyalou's creep and strength equations Normal pressure effect on creep and strength Salinity effect on frozen soil creep and strength 5.4 Frozen soil behavior in uniaxial tension 5.5 Deformability of frozen soils 5.6 Compressibility of frozen soils Problems CHAPTER 6. CONSTRUCTION GROUND FREEZING 6.1 Design considerations Ground freezing applications Soil conditions Groundwater flow Ground movement 6.2 Freezing methods and system installation Primary plant and pumped loop secondary coolant Expendable liquid refrigerant Installation of the cooling system 6.3 Structural design of frozen earth walls Curved walls Straight walls and combinations Tunnels Finite-element method 6.4 Monitoring requirements Freeze hole deviation Temperature Frost boundary location and wall thickness 6.5 Other construction considerations Protection of exposed frozen earth Concrete placement against frozen earth Problems CHAPTER 7. FOUNDATIONS IN FROZEN SOILS 7.1 General considerations Foundations in seasonally frozen ground Foundations in permafrost 7.2 Shallow foundations Selection of foundation method Design of shallow foundations Bearing capacity Settlement considerations 7.3 Pile foundations Pile types Pile placement Pile freezeback Axially loaded piles Laterally loaded piles Anchors in frozen ground 7.4 Frost-heave forces on foundations Tangential forces on a vertical surface Design for frost heave Problems CHAPTER 8. STABILITY OF SOIL MASSES IN COLD REGIONS 8.1 Landslides in permafrost: classification 8.2 Slopes in thawing permafrost Low-angle planar flows Slides 8.3 Slopes in frozen soils 8.4 Slope stabilization methods Construction and design techniques Stabilization of planar slides Stabilization of cut slopes Problems CHAPTER 9. EARTHWORK IN COLD REGIONS 9.1 Site considerations Drainage Thermal and frost action factors Subsurface conditions Material sources 9.2 Excavation and transport Mechanical excavation Drilling and blasting Thawing frozen soil Hydraulic dredging 9.3 Field placement Compaction Placement in water 9.4 Water-retaining embankments on permafrost Unfrozen embankments Frozen embankments Maintaining the frozen state Thermal and stability considerations 9.5 Embankment performance Frost heave Settlement Stability Artificial islands CHAPTER 10. FIELD INVESTIGATIONS 10.1. Sampling frozen ground Sampling methods Sample protection 10.2 Ground-temperature measurement Temperature sensors and measuring equipment 10.3 Field testing of frozen soils Field test methods Pressuremeter test Deep static cone penetration test Other types of field tests 10.4 Geophysical methods Seismic velocities in frozen ground Electrical properties of frozen ground Geophysical techniques used in frozen ground High-frequency electrical methods Borehole logging in permafrost APPENDIX A. SYMBOLS APPENDIX B. SI UNITS APPENDIX C LABORATORY AND FIELD TESTS ON FROZEN SOILS C1 Handling, storage, and machining of specimens prior to testing C2 Uniaxial compression test C3 Uniaxial tensile test C.4 Salinity of soil pore water C5 Thermosiphon C6 Pile load test in permafrost REFERENCES AUTHOR INDEX SUBJECT INDEX