ALBERT

Anmerkung: Contents: Preface. - 1. Introduction. - 1.1. Research purpose. - 1.2. Research area and methodology. - 2. Atmospheric circulation and dynamic conditions. - 2.1. Atmospheric circulation. - 2.2. Atmospheric pressure. - 2.3. Wind. - 3. Radiation conditions. - 3.1. Cloud cover. - 3.2. Sunshine duration. - 3.3. Solar radiation. - 4. Thermal conditions. - 4.1. Ground temperature. - 4.2. Air temperature. - 5. Higric conditions. - 5.1. Relative air humidity. - 5.2. Precipitation. - 6. The influence of atmospheric circulation on temperature and humidity conditions. - 6.1. The influence of atmospheric circulation on temperature conditions. - 6.2. The influence of atmospheric circulation on humidity conditions. - 7. Comparison of meteorological conditions in the area of Forlandsundet in the summer seasons of 2010-2011 with meteorological conditions in the years of 1975-2011. - 7.1. Introduction. - 7.2. Kaffiøyra. - 7.3. Waldemar Glacier. - Appendixes.

Anmerkung: Contents: Part 1 Introduction. - 1 Motivation. - 2 Goals. - Reference. - 3 Setting the Stage and Outline. - Part 2 Cosmic Radiation. - 4 Introduction to Cosmic Radiation. - 5 The Cosmic Radiation Near Earth. - 5.1 Introduction and History of Cosmic Ray Research. - 5.2 The "Rosetta Stone" of Paleocosmic Ray Studies. - 5.3 Some Important Definitions. - 5.4 The Origin and Properties of the Galactic Cosmic Radiation. - 5.5 Our Variable Sun. - 5.6 The Heliosphere, the Termination Shock, and the Current Sheet. - 5.7 Modulation of the Cosmic Radiation in the Heliosphere. - 5.7.1 The Cosmic Ray Propagation Equation. - 5.7.2 The Local Interstellar Spectrum. - 5.7.3 The Cosmic Ray Modulation Function and Potential. - 5.7.4 Practical Applications of the Modulation Function. - 5.7.5 Drift Effects (qA Positive and qA Negative Effects). - 5.7.6 Shock Wave Effects (The Forbush Decrease and GMIRs). - 5.8 Geomagnetic Field Effects. - 5.8.1 The Properties of the Geomagnetic Field. - 5.8.2 The Geomagnetic Cut-off Rigidity. - 5.8.3 The Earth's Magnetosphere and the Polar Aurora. - References. - 6 Instrumental Measurements of the Cosmic Radiation. - 6.1 Introduction. - 6.2 Ionization Chambers and Muon Telescopes. - 6.3 The IGY and IQSY Neutron Monitors, and Spaceship Earth. - 6.4 Satellite Borne Detectors. - 6.5 Latitude Effects and the Yield Functions. - 6.6 Inter-calibration of the Different Cosmic Ray Records. - 6.7 Cosmic Ray Archives. - References. - 7 Time Variations of the Cosmic Radiation. - 7.1 Introduction and Atmospheric Effects. - 7.2 The Eleven-and Twenty-Two-Year Variations. - 7.3 The Long-term Variations. - 7.4 Forbush Decreases, Globally Merged Interaction Regions and Some Smaller Effects. - References. - 8 The Solar Cosmic Radiation. - 8.1 Historical Overview. - 8.2 The Observed Production of Cosmic Rays by the Sun. - 8.2.1Ground Level Events. - 8.2.2 SEP Events Observed by Satellites. - 8.2.3 Paleo-Cosmic Ray Measurements of SEP Events. - 8.3 Overall Characteristics of the Solar Cosmic Radiation. - 8.3.1 The Energy Spectra. - 8.3.2 The Effect of Longitude Relative to the Central Solar Meridian. - 8.3.3 The Frequency of Occurrence, and the Detection of Historic SEP Events. - References. - Part 3 Cosmogenic Radionuclides. - 9 Introduction to Cosmogenic Radionuclides. - 10 Production of Cosmogenic Radionuclides in the Atmosphere. - 10.1 Introduction. - 10.2 Interaction of Primary Cosmic Rays with the Atmosphere. - 10.2.1 Production of Secondary Particles. - 10.2.2 Ionization and Excitation Processes. - 10.2.3 Simulated Atmospheric Proton and Neutron Fluxes. - 10.3 Production of Cosmogenic Radionuclides in the Atmosphere. - 10.3.1 Early Production Models. - 10.3.2 Production Cross-Sections. - 10.3.3 Production Rates and Inventories. - 10.4 Production Results and Analytical Tools. - References. - 11 Production of Cosmogenic Radionuclides in Other Environmental Systems. - 11.1 Introduction. - 11.2 Terrestrial Solid Matter (Rocks, Ice). - 11.2.1 36Cl Production in Limestone and Dolomite. - 11.2.2 10Be and 14C Production in Ice. - 11.3 Extraterrestrial Solid Matter. - References. - 12 Alternative Production Mechanisms. - 12.1 Introduction. - 12.2 Natural Production Mechanisms. - 12.2.1 Cosmic Ray Induced Reactions. - 12.2.2 Radioactive Decay-Induced Reactions. - 12.3 Anthropogenic Production Mechanisms. - 12.3.1 Nuclear Power Plant and Nuclear Bomb-Induced Reactions. - 12.3.2 Research, Industrial, and Medical Induced Reactions. - References. - 13 Transport and Deposition. - 13.1 Introduction. - 13.2 Basics of the Atmosphere. - 13.3 Removal or Scavenging Processes. - 13.3.1 Wet Deposition. - 13.3.2 Dry Deposition. - 13.3.3 Gravitational Settling. - 13.3.4 The Big Picture. - 13.4 Modelling the Atmospheric Transport. - 13.4.1 Summary. - 13.5 Geochemical Cycles. - 13.5.1 Introduction. - 13.5.2 The Beryllium Cycle. - 13.5.3 Carbon Cycle. - 13.5.4 The Chlorine Cycle. - 13.5.5 The Iodine Cycle. - References. - 14 Archives. - 14.1 Introduction. - 14.2 Intrinsic Properties of the Cosmogenic Radionuclide Archives. - 14.3 Time Scales. - 14.4 Examples of Archives. - 14.5 Proxies and Surrogates. - 14.6 Properties of Data in the Cosmogenic Archives. - 14.6.1 Sampling Effects. - 14.6.2 Transfer Functions. - 14.7 Modelled Transfer Functions. - 14.7.1 10Be and 7Be in the Atmosphere. - 14.7.2 10Be and 26Al in Deep-Sea Sediments. - References. - 15 Detection. - 15.1 Introduction. - 15.2 Low-Level Decay Counting. - 15.3 Accelerator Mass Spectrometry. - 15.4 Decay Versus Atom Counting. - 15.5 Other Techniques, Optical Methods. - 15.5.1 Final Remarks. - References. - Part 4 Applications. - 16 Introduction to Applications. - 17 Solar Physics. - 17.1 Introduction. - 17.2 Solar Periodicities and the "Grand Minima" in the Cosmogenic Radionuclide Record. - 17.2.1 Solar Periodicities: Time Domain Studies. - 17.2.2 Solar Periodicities: Frequency Domain Studies. - 17.3 Cosmic Rayand Solar Effects in the Past. - 17.3.1 The Past Millennium. - 17.3.2 The Past 10,000 Years (the "Holocene"). - 17.3.3 The Long Solar Minimum of 2007-2009. - 17.4 The Heliomagnetic Field Throughout the Past 10,000 Years. - 17.5 Solar Irradiance and Terrestrial Climate. - 17.6 Radiation Doses on Earth and in Space in the Future. - 17.7 Quantitative Measures of Solar Activity for the Past. - 17.7.1 Reconstructed Sunspot Numbers. - 17.7.2 Modulation Function. - References. - 18 Galactic Astronomy. - 18.1 Introduction. - 18.2 Galactic Structure. - 18.3 Individual Supernova. - References. - 19 Atmosphere. - 19.1 Introduction. - 19.2 Studies of Atmospheric Mixing. - 19.3 36Cl Bomb Pulse as a Tracer of Atmospheric Transport. - 19.4 Concentrations and Fluxes. - References. - 20 Hydrosphere. - 20.1 Introduction. - 20.2 Tritium. - 20.3 Carbon-14. - 20.4 Krypton-81. - 20.5 Chlorine-36. - 20.6 Beryllium-7 to Beryllium-10 Ratio. - References. - 21 Geosphere. - 21.1 Introduction. - 21.2 Geomagnetic Field Intensity. - 21.3 Transport of Cosmogenic Radionuclides in Geological Systems. - 21.3.1 Introduction. - 21.3.2 Migration in Ice. - 21.3.3 Transport in Soils. - 21.3.4 Transport in Rocks. - 21.3.5 Formation of Loess Plateaus. - 21.3.6 Subduction. - References. - 22 Biosphere. - 22.1 Introduction. - 22.2 Radiocarbon Applications. - 22.3 Chlorine-36 in Ecosystems. - 22.4 Iodine-129. - 22.5 Aluminium-26. - References. - 23 Dating. - 23.1 Introduction. - 23.2 Absolute Dating. - 23.2.1 Principle of Radiocarbon Dating. - 23.2.2 Exposure Dating. - 23.2.3 10Be/36Cl- and 7Be/10Be-Dating. - 23.3 Synchronization of Records. - 23.3.1 10Be or 36Cl with 14C During the Holocene. - 23.3.2 The Use of Time Markers. - References. - Glossary. - Index.

Anmerkung: Contents: What has changed since the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment in 2005? Part 1. How the Arctic cryosphere is changing 1.1. The Arctic cryosphere 1.2. Monitoring change in the Arctic cryosphere 1.3. Snow cover is decreasing 1.4. Permafrost is thawing 1.5. Lakes and rivers are losing ice cover 1.6. Mountain glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland Ice Sheet are all diminishing 1.7. Summer sea-ice cover has declined dramatically Part 2. Why the Arctic cryosphere is changing 2.1. The Arctic climate is changing 2.2. The cryosphere interacts with other aspects of climate Part 3. More change is expected. Where in the Arctic? 3.1. Modelling the future 3.2. Future changes in temperature, rain and snowfall 3.3. Future changes in snow, permafrost, lake and river ice 3.4. Future changes in mountain glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland Ice Sheet 3.5. Future changes in sea ice Part 4. How these changes affect people and nature. Where in the Arctic? 4.1. Changing Arctic ecosystems 4.2. Changing supplies of natural resources 4.3. Changing access 4.4. Changing risks to buildings and land 4.5. Changing movement of contaminants 4.6. Changing Arctic living conditions Part 5. Why changes in the Arctic matter globally 5.1. Changes in the Arctic cryosphere affect the global climate 5.2. Melting Arctic land ice contributes to sea-level rise 5.3. Consequences for global society Part 6. What should be done? 6.1. Adapting to change 6.2. The big unknowns Glossary.

Anmerkung: Contents Preface Preface to the First Edition List of figures Abbreviations 1 Historical perspective (Roland A. Madden and Paul R. Julian) 1.1 Introduction 1.2 The intraseasonal, tropospheric oscillation 1.3 The elementary 4-D structure 1.4 Other early studies of the oscillation 1.5 The oscillation in 1979 1.6 Complexity of cloud movement and structure 1.7 Seasonal variations in the oscillation 1.8 The oscillation in the zonal average 1.9 Other effects of the oscillation 1.10 Summary 1.11 References 2 South Asian monsoon (B. N. Goswami) 2.1 Introduction 2.1.1 South Asian summer monsoon and active/break cycles 2.1.2 Amplitude and temporal and spatial scales 2.1.3 Regional propagation characteristics 2.1.4 Relationship between poleward-propagating ISOs and monsoon onset 2.1.5 Relationship with the MJO 2.2 Mechanism for temporal-scale selection and propagation 2.2.1 30 to 60-day mode 2.2.2 10 to 20-day mode 2.3 Air-sea interactions 2.4 Clustering of synoptic events by ISOs 2.5 Monsoon ISOs and predictability of the seasonal mean 2.6 Aerosols and monsoon ISOs 2.7 Predictability and prediction of monsoon ISOs 2.8 Summary and discussion 2.9 Acknowledgments 2.10 Appendix 2.11 References 3 Intraseasonal variability of the atmosphere-ocean-climate system: East Asian monsoon (Huang-Hsiung Hsu) 3.1 Introduction 3.2 General characteristics of EA/WNP monsoon flow 3.3 Periodicity, seasonality, and regionality 3.4 Intraseasonal oscillation propagation tendency 3.5 Relationship with monsoon onsets and breaks 3.6 The 10 to 30-day and 30 to 60-day boreal summer ISO 3.6.1 The 30 to 60-day northward/northwestward-propagating pattern 3.6.2 The 10 to 30-day westward-propagating pattern 3.7 Relationship with tropical cyclone activity 3.8 Upscale effect of TC and synoptic systems 3.9 Final remarks 3.9.1 Close association with the EA/WNP monsoon 3.9.2 The CISO vs. interannual variability 3.9.3 Multiperiodicities and multiscale interaction 3.9.4 Others 3.10 References 4 Pan America (Kingtse C. Mo, Charles Jones, and Julia Nogues Paegle) 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Variations in the IS band 4.3 IS variability in December-March 4.3.1 EOF modes 4.3.2 The Madden Julian Oscillation 4.3.3 The submonthly oscillation 4.4 IS variability in June-September 4.4.1 EOF modes 4.4.2 Madden-Julian Oscillation 4.4.3 Submonthly oscillation 4.5 Intraseasonal modulation of hurricanes 4.6 Summary 4.7 References 5 Australasian monsoon (M. C. Wheeler and J. L. McBride) 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Seasonal cycle of background flow 5.3 Broadband intraseasonal behavior: Bursts and breaks 5.4 Broadband intraseasonal behavior: Spectral analysis 5.5 Meteorology of the bursts and breaks 5.6 Characteristics and influence of the MJO 5.7 1983/1984 and 1987/1988 case studies 5.8 MJO influence on monsoon onset 5.9 Other modes and sources of ISV 5.10 Modulation of tropical cyclones 5.11 Extratropical-tropical interaction 5.12 Prediction 5.13 Conclusions 5.14 References 6 The oceans (William S. Kessler) 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Heat fluxes 6.2.1 Salinity and the barrier layer 6.2.2 A 1-D heat balance? 6.2.3 The role of advection 6.3 Vertical structure under westerly winds 6.4 Remote signatures of wind-forced Kelvin waves 6.5 El Nino and rectification of ISV 6.6 ISV in the Indian Ocean 6.6.1 Differences between the Indian and Pacific Ocean warm pools and their consequences 6.6.2 Oscillations lasting about 60 days in the western equatorial Indian Ocean 6.6.3 Recent models of wind-forced ISV in the Indian Ocean 6.7 Other intrinsic oceanic ISV 6.7.1 Global ISV 6.7.2 Non-TISO-forced ISV in the tropical Indo-Pacific 6.7.3 ISV outside the equatorial Indo-Pacific 6.8 Conclusion 6.9 References 7 Air-sea interaction (Harry Hendori) 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Air-sea fluxes for the eastward MJO 7.3 Air-sea fluxes associated with northward propagation in the Indian summer monsoon 7.4 SST variability 7.5 Mechanisms of SST variability 7.6 SST-atmosphere feedback 7.7 Impact of slow SST variations on MJO activity 7.8 Concluding remarks 7.9 Acknowledgments 7.10 References 8 Mass, momentum, and geodynamics (Benjamin F. Chao and David A. Salstein) 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Angular momentum variations and Earth rotation 8.2.1 Length-of-day variation and axial angular momentum 8.2.2 Polar motion excitation and equatorial angular momentum 8.2.3 Angular momentum and torques 8.3 Time-variable gravity 8.4 Geocenter motion 8.5 Conclusions 8.6 Acknowledgments 8.7 References 9 El Nino Southern Oscillation connection (William K. M. Lau) 9.1 Introduction 9.2 A historical perspective 9.3 Phase 1: The embryonic stage 9.3.1 OLR time-longitude sections 9.3.2 Seasonality 9.3.3 Supercloud clusters 9.3.4 Early modeling framework 9.4 Phase 2: The exploratory stage 9.4.1 MJO and ENSO interactions 9.4.2 WWEs 9.5 Phase 3: ENSO case studies 9.5.1 El Nino of 1997/1998 9.5.2 Stochastic forcings 9.6 Phase-4: Recent development 9.6.1 A new ISO index 9.6.2 Composite events 9.6.3 The ISV-ENSO biennial rhythm 9.7 TISV and predictability 9.8 Acknowledgments 9.9 References 10 Theories (Bin Wang) 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Review of ISO theories 10.2.1 Wave CISK 10.2.2 Wind-evaporation feedback or WISHE 10.2.3 Frictional convergence instability (FCI) 10.2.4 Cloud-radiation feedback 10.2.5 Convection-water vapor feedback and the moisture mode 10.2.6 Multiscale interaction theory 10.2.7 Mechanisms of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation 10.2.8 Atmosphere-ocean interaction 10.3 A general theoretical framework 10.3.1 Fundamental physical processes 10.3.2 Governing equations 10.3.3 Boundary layer dynamics near the equator 10.3.4 The 1.5-layer model for the MJO 10.3.5 The 2.5-layer model including the effects of basic flows 10.4 Dynamics of the MJO 10.4.1 Low-frequency equatorial waves and the associated Ekman pumping 10.4.2 Frictional convergence instability (FCI) 10.4.3 FCI mode under nonlinear heating 10.4.4 The role of multiscale interaction (MSI) in MJO dynamics 10.5 Dynamics of boreal summer ISO 10.5.1 Effects of mean flows on the ISO 10.5.2 Mechanism of northward propagation 10.6 Role played by atmospheric-ocean interaction 10.7 Summary and discussion 10.7.1 Understanding gained from the FCI theory 10.7.2 Model limitations 10.7.3 Outstanding issues 10.8 Acknowledgments 10.9 References 11 Modeling intraseasonal variability (K. R. Sperber, J. M. Slingo, and P. M. Inness) 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Modeling the MJO in boreal winter 11.2.1 Interannual and decadal variability of the MJO 11.2.2 Sensitivity to formulation of the atmospheric model 11.2.3 Modeling the MJO as a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon 11.3 Boreal summer intraseasonal variability 11.3.1 GCM simulations 11.3.2 Air-sea interaction and boreal summer intraseasonal variability 11.3.3 Modeling studies of the links between boreal summer intraseasonal and interannual variability 11.4 The impact of vertical resolution in the upper ocean 11.5 Concluding remarks 11.6 Acknowledgments 11.7 References 12 Predictability and forecasting (Duane Waliser) 12.1 Introduction 12.2 Empirical models 12.3 Dynamical forecast models 12.4 Predictability 12.5 Real time forecasts 12.6 Discussion 12.7 Appendix 12.8 Acknowledgments 12.9 References 13 Africa and West Asia (Mathew Barlow) 13.1 Overview 13.2 Summary of Africa research 13.2.1 West Africa 13.2.2 Eastern Africa 13.2.3 Southern Africa 13.3 Summary of West Asia research 13.4 Station data analysis 13.4.1 Methodology and data 13.4.2 Nairobi 13.4.3 Riyadh 13.5 Relevance of Gill-Matsuno dynamics and the role of mean wind 13.6 Summary and discussion 13.7 References 14 Tropical-extratropical interactions (Paul E. Roundy) 14.1 Introduction 14.2 A boreal winter composite of the global flow associated with the MJO 14.3 Response of the global atmosphere to heating in tropical convection 14.4 Influence of extratropical waves on tropical convection 14.5 Two-way interactions between the tropics and extratropics 14.6 MJO inf

Anmerkung: Contents: Preface. - 1. Overview of climate variability and climate science. - 1.1 Climate dynamics, climate change and climate prediction. - 1.2 The chemical and physical climate system. - 1.2.1 Chemical and physical aspects of the climate system. - 1.2.2 El Niño and global warming. - 1.3 Climate models: a brief overview. - 1.4 Global change in recent history. - 1.4.1 Trace gas concentrations. - 1.4.2 A word on the ozone hole. - 1.4.3 Some history of global warming studies. - 1.4.4 Global temperatures. - 1.5 El Niño: an example of natural climate variability. - 1.5.1 Some history of El Niño studies. - 1.5.2 Observations of El Niño: the 1997-98 event. - 1.5.3 The first El Niño forecast with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. - 1.6 Paleoclimate variability. - Notes. - 2. Basics of global climate. - 2.1 Components and phenomena in the climate system. - 2.1.1 Time and space scales. - 2.1.2 Interactions among scales and the parameterization problem. - 2.2 Basics of radiative forcing. - 2.2.1 Blackbody radiation. - 2.2.2 Solar energy input. - 2.3 Globally averaged energy budget: first glance. - 2.4 Gradients of radiative forcing and energy transports. - 2.5 Atmospheric circulation. - 2.5.1 Vertical structure. - 2.5.2 Latitude structure of the circulation. - 2.5.3 Latitude-Iongitude dependence of atmospheric climate features. - 2.6 Ocean circulation. - 2.6.1 Latitude-longitude dependence of oceanic climate features. - 2.6.2 The ocean vertical structure. - 2.6.3 The ocean thermohaline circulation. - 2.7 Land surface proeesses. - 2.8 The carbon cycle. - Notes. - 3. Physical processes in the climate system. - 3.1 Conservation of momentum. - 3.1.1 Coriolis force. - 3.1.2 Pressure gradient force. - 3.1.3 Velocity equations. - 3.1.4 Application: geostrophic wind. - 3.1.5 Pressure-height relation: hydrostatic balance. - 3.1.6 Application: pressure coordinates. - 3.2 Equation of state. - 3.2.1 Equation of state for the atmosphere: ideal gas law. - 3.2.2 Equation of state for the ocean. - 3.2.3 Application: atmospheric height-pressure-temperature relation. - 3.2.4 Application: thermal circulations. - 3.2.5 Application: sea level rise due to oceanic thermal expansion. - 3.3 Temperature equation. - 3.3.1 Ocean temperature equation. - 3.3.2 Temperature equation for air. - 3.3.3 Application: the dry adiabatic lapse rate near the surface. - 3.3.4 Application: decay of a sea surface temperature anomaly. - 3.3.5 Time derivative following the parcel. - 3.4 Continuity equation. - 3.4.1 Oceanic continuity equation. - 3.4.2 Atmospheric continuity equation. - 3.4.3 Application: coastal upwelling. - 3.4.4 Application: equatorial upwelling. - 3.4.5 Application: conservation of warm water mass in an idealized layer above the thermocline. - 3.5 Conservation of mass applied to moisture. - 3.5.1 Moisture equation for the atmosphere and surface. - 3.5.2 Sources and sinks of moisture, and latent heat. - 3.5.3 Application: surface melting on an ice sheet. - 3.5.4 Salinity equation for the ocean. - 3.6 Moist processes. - 3.6.1 Saturation. - 3.6.2 Saturation in convection; lifting condensation level. - 3.6.3 The moist adiabat and lapse rate in convective regions. - 3.6.4 Moist convection. - 3.7 Wave processes in the atmosphere and ocean. - 3.7.1 Gravity waves. - 3.7.2 Kelvin waves. - 3.7.3 Rossby waves. - 3.8 Overview. - Notes. - 4. El Niño and year-to-year climate prediction. - 4.1 Recap of El Niño basics. - 4.1.1 The Bjerknes hypothesis. - 4.2 Tropical Pacific climatology. - 4.3 ENSO mechanisms I: extreme phases. - 4.4 Pressure gradients in an idealized upper layer. - 4.4.1 Subsurface temperature anomalies in an idealized upper layer. - 4.5 Transition into the 1997-98 El Niño. - 4.5.1 Subsurface temperature measurements. - 4.5.2 Subsurface temperature anomalies during the onset of El Niño. - 4.5.3 Subsurface temperature anomalies during the transition to La Niña. - 4.6 El Niño mechanisms II: dynamics of transition phases. - 4.6.1 Equatorial jets and the Kelvin wave. - 4.6.2 The Kelvin wave speed. - 4.6.3 What sets the width of the Kelvin wave and equatorial jet?. - 4.6.4 Response of the ocean to a wind anomaly. - 4.6.5 The delayed oscillator model and the recharge oscillator model. - 4.6.6 ENSO transition mechanism in brief. - 4.7 El Niño prediction. - 4.7.1 Limits to skill in ENSO forecasts. - 4.8 El Niño remote impacts: teleconnections. - 4.9 Other interannual climate phenomena. - 4.9.1 Hurricane season forecasts. - 4.9.2 Sahel drought. - 4.9.3 North Atlantic oscillation and annular modes. - Notes. - 5. Climate models. - 5.1 Constructing a climate model. - 5.1.1 An atmospheric model. - 5.1.2 Treatment of sub-grid-scale processes. - 5.1.3 Resolution and computational cost. - 5.1.4 An ocean model and ocean-atmosphere coupling. - 5.1.5 Land surface, snow, ice and vegetation. - 5.1.6 Summary of principal climate model equations. - 5.1.7 Climate system modeling. - 5.2 Numerical representation of atmospheric and oceanic equations. - 5.2.1 Finite-difference versus spectral models. - 5.2.2 Time-stepping and numerical stability. - 5.2.3 Staggered grids and other grids. - 5.2.4 Parallel computer architecture. - 5.3 Parameterization of small-scale processes. - 5.3.1 Mixing and surface fluxes. - 5.3.2 Dry convection. - 5.3.3 Moist convection. - 5.3.4 Land surface processes and soil moisture. - 5.3.5 Sea ice and snow. - 5.4 The hierarchy of climate models. - 5.5 Climate simulations and climate drift. - 5.6 Evaluation of climate model simulations for present-day climate. - 5.6.1 Atmospheric model climatology from specified SST. - 5.6.2 Climate model simulation of climatology. - 5.6.3 Simulation of ENSO response. - Notes. - 6. The greenhouse effect and climate feedbacks. - 6.1 The greenhouse effect in Earth's current climate. - 6.1.1 Global energy balance. - 6.1.2 A global-average energy balance model with a one-layer atmosphere. - 6.1.3 Infrared emissions from a layer. - 6.1.4 The greenhouse effect: example with a completely IR-absorbing atmosphere. - 6.1.5 The greenhouse effect in a one-layer atmosphere, global-average model. - 6.1.6 Temperatures from the one-layer energy balance model. - 6.2 Global warming I: example in the global-average energy balance model. - 6.2.1 Increases in the basic greenhouse effect. - 6.2.2 Climate feedback parameter in the one-layer global-average model. - 6.3 Climate feedbacks. - 6.3.1 Climate feedback parameter. - 6.3.2 Contributions of climate feedbacks to global-average temperature response. - 6.3.3 Climate sensitivity. - 6.4 The water vapor feedback. - 6.5 Snow/ice feedback. - 6.6 Cloud feedbacks. - 6.7 Other feedbacks in the physical climate system. - 6.7.1 Stratospheric cooling. - 6.7.2 Lapse rate feedback. - 6.8 Climate response time in transient climate change. - 6.8.1 Transient climate change versus equilibrium response experiments. - 6.8.2 A doubled-CO2 equilibrium response experiment. - 6.8.3 The role of the oceans in slowing warming. - 6.8.4 Climate sensitivity in transient climate change. - Notes. - 7. Climate model scenarios for global warming. - 7.1 Greenhouse gases, aerosols and other climate forcings. - 7.1.1 Scenarios, forcings and feedbacks. - 7.1.2 Forcing by sulfate aerosols. - 7.1.3 Commonly used scenarios. - 7.2 Global-average response to greenhouse warming scenarios. - 7.3 Spatial patterns of warming for time-dependent scenarios. - 7.3.1 Comparing projections of different climate models. - 7.3.2 Multi-model ensemble averages. - 7.3.3 Polar amplification of warming. - 7.3.4 Summary of spatial patterns of the response. - 7.4 Ice, sea level, extreme events. - 7.4.1 Sea ice and snow. - 7.4.2 Land ice. - 7.4.3 Extreme events. - 7.5 Summary: the best-estimate prognosis. - 7.6 Climate change observed to date. - 7.6.1 Temperature trends and natural variability: scale dependence. - 7.6.2 Is the observed trend consistent with natural variability or anthropogenic forcing?. - 7.6.3 Sea ice, land ice, ocean heat storage and sea level rise. - 7.7 Emissions

Anmerkung: Contents: PART I INTRODUCTION, NUMERICAL OVERVIEW, AND DATA-SETS. - 1 The march towards the quantitative analysis of palaeolimnological data. - 2 Overview of numerical metods in Palaeolimnology. - 3 Data-Sets. - PART II NUMERICAL METHODS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF MODERN AND STRATIGRAPHICAL PALAEOLIMNOLOGICAL DATA. - 4 Introduction and overview Part II. - 5 Exploratory data analysis and data display. - Assessment of uncertainities associated with Palaeolimnological laboratory methods and microfossil analysis. - 7 Clustering and partitioning. - 8 From Classical to canonical ordination. - 9 Statistical learning in Palaeolimnology. - PART III NUMERICAL METHODS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF STRATIGRAPHICAL PALAEOLIMNOLOGICAL DATA. - 10 Introduction and overview of Part III. - 11 Analysis of stratigraphical data. - 12 Estimation of age-depth relationships. - 13 Core correlation. - 14 Quantitative environmental reconstructions from biological data. - 15 Analogue methods in Palaeolimnology. - 16 Autocorrelogram and Periodogram analysis of palaeolimnological temporal-series from lakes in Central and Western North America to assess shifts in drought conditions. - PART IV CASE STUDIES AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS IN QUANTITATIVE PALAEOLIMNOLOGY. - 17 Introduction and overview of Part IV. - 18 Limnological responses to environmental changes at Inter-annual to decadal time-scales. - 19 Human impacts: applications of numerical methods to evaluate surface-water acidification and eutrophication. - 20 Tracking Holocene climatic change with aquatic biota from lake sediments: case studies of commonly used numerical techniques. - 21 Conclusions and future challenges. - Glossary. - Index.

Anmerkung: Contents: Preface. - 1 Basics. - 2 Radiative energy flows. - 3 How turbulence and cumulus clouds carry energy upward. - Appendix to Chapter 3: More about Eddy Fluxes. - 4 How energy travels from the tropics to the poles. - Appendix to chapter 4: Conservation of momentum on a rotating sphere. - 5 Feedbacks. - 6 The water planet. - 7 Predictability of weather and climate. - 8 Air, sea, land. - 9 Frontiers. - Notes. - Glossary. - Suggestions for further reading. - Bibliography. - Index.

Anmerkung: Contents: About the author. - About the technical reviewer. - Acknowledgments. - Introduction. - Chapter 1: Getting R and getting started. - Chapter 2: Programming in R. - Chapter 3: Writing reusable functions. - Chapter 4: Summary statistics. - Chapter 5: Creating Tables and graphs. - Chapter 6: Discrete probability distributions. - Chapter 7: Computing normal probabilities. - Chapter 8: Creating confidence intervals. - Chapter 9: Performing t tests. - Chapter 10: One-way analysis of variance. - Chapter 11: Advanced analysis of variance. - Chapter 12: Correlation and regression. - Chapter 13: Multiple regression. - Chapter 14: Logistic regression. - Chapter 15: Chi-square tests. - Chapter 16: Nonparametric tests. - Chapter 17: Using R for simulation. - Chapter 18: The 'new' statistics: resampling and bootstrapping. - Chapter 19: Making an R package. - Chapter 20: The R commander package. - Index