ALBERT

Description: Extraction of oil and natural gas (hydrocarbons) from shale is increasing rapidly in North America, with documented impacts to native species and ecosystems. With shale oil and gas resources on nearly every continent, this development is set to become a major driver of global land-use change. It is increasingly critical to quantify spatial habitat loss driven by this development to implement effective mitigation strategies and develop habitat offsets. Habitat selection is a fundamental ecological process, influencing both individual fitness and population-level distribution on the landscape. Examinations of habitat selection provide a natural means for understanding spatial impacts. We examined the impact of natural gas development on habitat selection patterns of mule deer on their winter range in Colorado. We fit resource selection functions in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, with habitat availability defined using a movement-based modeling approach. Energy development drove considerable alterations to deer habitat selection patterns, with the most substantial impacts manifested as avoidance of well pads with active drilling to a distance of at least 800 m. Deer displayed more nuanced responses to other infrastructure, avoiding pads with active production and roads to a greater degree during the day than night. In aggregate, these responses equate to alteration of behavior by human development in over 50% of the critical winter range in our study area during the day and over 25% at night. Compared to other regions, the topographic and vegetative diversity in the study area appear to provide refugia that allow deer to behaviorally mediate some of the impacts of development. This study, and the methods we employed, provides a template for quantifying spatial take by industrial activities in natural areas and the results offer guidance for policy makers, mangers, and industry when attempting to mitigate habitat loss due to energy development.

Description: Although long-distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black-throated blue warbler ( Setophaga caerulescens ), a double-brooded long-distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark-recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late-season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black-throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecotones are transition zones that form, in forests, where distinct forest types meet across a climatic gradient. In mountains, ecotones are compressed and act as potential harbingers of species shifts that accompany climate change. As the climate warms in New England, USA, high elevation boreal forests are expected to recede upslope, with northern hardwood species moving up behind. Yet recent empirical studies present conflicting findings on this dynamic, reporting both rapid upward ecotonal shifts and concurrent increases in boreal species within the region. These discrepancies may result from the limited spatial extent of observations. We developed a method to model and map the montane forest ecotone using Landsat imagery to observe change at scales not possible for plot-based studies, covering mountain peaks over 39,000 km 2 . Our results show that ecotones shifted downward or stayed stable on most mountains between 1991 and 2010, but also shifted upward in some cases (13-15% slopes). On average, upper ecotone boundaries moved down -1.5 m·yr −1 in the Green Mountains, VT, and -1.3 m·yr −1 in the White Mountains, NH. These changes agree with re-measured forest inventory data from Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH and suggest that processes of boreal forest recovery from prior red spruce decline, or human landuse and disturbance, may swamp out any signal of climate-mediated migration in this ecosystem. This approach represents a powerful framework for evaluating similar ecotonal dynamics in other mountainous regions of the globe. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In order to adequately monitor biodiversity trends through time and their responses to natural or anthropogenic impacts, researchers require long time series that are often unavailable. This general lack of datasets that are several decades or longer makes establishing a background or baseline of diversity metrics difficult – especially when attempting to understand species composition changes against a backdrop of climate and ecological variability. Here we present an analysis of a community of juvenile nearshore fishes based on nearly 8 decades of highly standardized Norwegian survey records. Using multivariate statistical techniques, we: a) characterize the change in taxonomic community composition through time, b) determine whether there has been an increase in warm water affinity species relative to their cold water affinity counterparts, and c) characterize the temporal change in the species’ functional trait assemblage. Our results strongly indicate a shift towards a novel fish assemblage between the late 1990s and 2000s. The context of changes within the most recent two decades are in stark contrast to those during the 60s and 70s, but similar to those during the previous warm period during the 30s and 40s. This novel assemblage is tightly linked to the warming temperatures in the region portrayed by the increased presence of warm water species and a higher incidence of pelagic, planktivorous species. The results indicate a clear influence of ocean temperature on the region's juvenile fish community that points to climate mediated effects on the species assemblages of an important fish nursery area. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: High Arctic landscapes are expansive and changing rapidly. However our understanding of their functional responses and potential to mitigate or enhance anthropogenic climate change is limited by few measurements. We collected eddy covariance measurements to quantify the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 with polar semidesert and meadow wetland landscapes at the highest-latitude location measured to date (82°N). We coupled these rare data with ground and satellite vegetation production measurements (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) to evaluate the effectiveness of upscaling local to regional NEE. During the growing season, the dry polar semidesert landscape was a near zero sink of atmospheric CO 2 (NEE: -0.3±13.5 g C m −2 ). A nearby meadow wetland accumulated over 300 times more carbon (NEE: -79.3±20.0 g C m −2 ) than the polar semidesert landscape, and was similar to meadow wetland NEE at much more southerly latitudes. Polar semidesert NEE was most influenced by moisture, with wetter surface soils resulting in greater soil respiration and CO 2 emissions. At the meadow wetland, soil heating enhanced plant growth, which in turn increased CO 2 uptake. Our upscaling assessment found that polar semidesert NDVI measured on site was low (mean: 0.120-0.157) and similar to satellite measurements (mean: 0.155-0.163). However, weak plant growth resulted in poor satellite NDVI-NEE relationships and created challenges for remotely-detecting changes in the cycling of carbon on the polar semidesert landscape. The meadow wetland appeared more suitable to assess plant production and NEE via remote-sensing, however high Arctic wetland extent is constrained by topography to small areas that may be difficult to resolve with large satellite pixels. We predict that until summer precipitation and humidity increases substantially, climate-related changes of dry high Arctic landscapes may be restricted by poor soil moisture retention, and therefore have some inertia against short-term changes in NEE. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Urban areas are expanding rapidly in tropical regions, with potential to alter ecosystem dynamics. In particular, exotic grasses and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition simultaneously affect urbanized landscapes, with unknown effects on properties like soil carbon (C) storage. We hypothesized that: (H1.) Soil nitrate (NO 3 - ) is elevated nearer to the urban core, reflecting N deposition gradients. (H2.) Exotic grasslands have drier soils, elevated NO 3 - , and decreased soil C relative to secondary forests, with higher N promoting decomposer activity. (H3.) Exotic grasslands have greater seasonality in soil NO 3 - versus secondary forests, due to higher sensitivity of grassland soil moisture to rainfall. We predicted that NO 3 - would be related to dissolved organic C (DOC) production via changes in decomposer activity. We measured six paired grassland/secondary-forest sites along a tropical urban-to-rural gradient during three dominant seasons (hurricane, dry, and early wet). We found that: (1.) Soil NO 3 - was generally elevated near the urban core, with particularly clear spatial trends for grasslands. (2.) Exotic grasslands had lower soil C than secondary forests, which was related to elevated decomposer enzyme activities and soil respiration. Unexpectedly, soil NO 3 - was negatively related to enzyme activities, and was higher in forests than grasslands. (3.) Grasslands had greater soil NO 3 - seasonality versus forests, but this was not strongly linked to shifts in soil moisture or DOC. Our results suggest that exotic grasses in tropical regions are likely to drastically reduce soil C storage, but that N deposition may have an opposite effect via suppression of enzyme activities. However, soil NO 3 - accumulation here was higher in urban forests than grasslands, potentially due to an interplay of aboveground N interception and soil processes. Net urban effects on C storage across tropical landscapes will likely vary depending on rates of N deposition, the mosaic of land covers, and responses by local decomposer communities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land use change, land management, and land degradation (erosion, compaction, sealing and salinization). The intensity of land use also exerts a great impact on soils, and soils are also subject to indirect impacts arising from human activity, such as acid deposition (sulphur and nitrogen) and heavy metal pollution. In this critical review, we report the state-of-the-art understanding of these global change pressures on soils, identify knowledge gaps and research challenges, and highlight actions and policies to minimise adverse environmental impacts arising from these global change drivers. Soils are central to considerations of what constitutes sustainable intensification. Therefore, ensuring that vulnerable and high environmental value soils are considered when protecting important habitats and ecosystems, will help to reduce the pressure on land from global change drivers. To ensure that soils are protected as part of wider environmental efforts, a global soil resilience programme should be considered, to monitor, recover or sustain soil fertility and function, and to enhance the ecosystem services provided by soils. Soils cannot, and should not, be considered in isolation of the ecosystems that they underpin and vice versa. The role of soils in supporting ecosystems and natural capital needs greater recognition. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be to put soils at the centre of policy supporting environmental protection and sustainable development. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The response of soil organic carbon (SOC) pools to globally rising surface temperature crucially determines the feedback between climate change and the global carbon cycle. However, there is a lack of studies investigating the temperature sensitivity of decomposition for decadally cycling SOC which is the main component of total soil carbon stock and the most relevant to global change. We tackled this issue by using two decadally 13 C-labeled soils and a much improved measuring system in a long-term incubation experiment. Results indicated that the temperature sensitivity of decomposition for decadally-cycling SOC (〉 23 years in one soil and 〉 55 years in the other soil) was significantly greater than that for faster-cycling SOC (〈 23 or 55 years) or for the entire SOC stock. Moreover, decadally-cycling SOC contributed substantially (35-59%) to the total CO 2 loss during the 360-day incubation. Overall, these results indicate that the decomposition of decadally-cycling SOC is highly sensitive to temperature change, which will likely make this large SOC stock vulnerable to loss by global warming in the 21 st century and beyond. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Human induced climate change is projected to increase ocean temperature and modify circulation patterns, with potential widespread implications for the transport and survival of planktonic larvae of marine organisms. Circulation affects the dispersal of larvae, whereas temperature impacts larval development and survival. However, the combined effect of changes in circulation and temperature on larval dispersal and survival has not been studied in a future climate scenario. Such understanding is crucial to predict future species distributions, anticipate ecosystem shifts, and design effective management strategies. We simulate contemporary (1990s) and future (2060s) dispersal of lobster larvae using an eddy-resolving ocean model in south-eastern Australia, a region of rapid ocean warming. Here we show that the effects of changes in circulation and temperature can counter each other: ocean warming favours the survival of lobster larvae, whereas a strengthened western boundary current diminishes the supply of larvae to the coast by restricting cross-current larval dispersal. Furthermore, we find that changes in circulation have a stronger effect on connectivity patterns of lobster larvae along south-eastern Australia than ocean warming in the future climate so that the supply of larvae to the coast reduces by ~ 4% and the settlement peak shifts poleward by ~270km in the model simulation. Thus ocean circulation may be one of the dominant factors contributing to the climate-induced expansion of species ranges. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The zooplankton of the northern California Current are typically characterized by an abundance of lipid-rich copepods that support rapid growth and survival of ecologically, commercially, and recreationally valued fish, birds, and mammals. Disruption of this food chain and reduced ecosystem productivity are often associated with climatic variability such as El Niño events. We examined the variability in timing, magnitude, and duration of positive temperature anomalies and changes in copepod species composition in the northern California Current in relation to ten tropical El Niño events. Measureable impacts on mesozooplankton of the northern California Current were observed during seven out of ten of these events. The occurrence of anomalously warm water and the response of the copepod community was rapid (lag of zero to two months) following the initiation of canonical Eastern Pacific events, but delayed (lag of two to eight months) following “Modoki” Central Pacific events. The variable lags in the timing of a physical and biological response led to impacts in the northern California Current peaking in winter during EP events and in the spring during CP events. The magnitude and duration of the temperature and copepod anomalies were strongly and positively related to the magnitude and duration of El Niño events, but were also sensitive to the phase of the lower-frequency Pacific Decadal Oscillation. When fisheries managers and biological oceanographers are faced with the prospect of a future El Niño event, prudent management and observation will require consideration of the background oceanographic conditions, the type of event, and both the magnitude and duration of the event when assessing the potential physical and biological impacts on the northern California Current. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2-5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (1) human activities as drivers of change; (2) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (3) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (4) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes, and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine-coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Soil is the largest stock of carbon (C) in the terrestrial biosphere, so even slight changes in soil C stock may induce significant fluctuations in the atmospheric C dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration. Early coupled C-climate models predicted that positive C-climate feedback would be triggered due to the acceleration of C release to the atmosphere under future climate warming (Cox et al ., 2000). However, due to the omission of key microbial components and biogeochemical mechanisms in these models (Wieder et al ., 2013), these predictions remain controversial, because soil C dynamics is still highly uncertain among results simulated by 11 Earth system models (ESMs) involved in CMIP5 (Ciais et al ., 2013). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The influence of human activity on the biosphere is increasing. While direct damage (e.g. habitat destruction) is relatively well understood, many activities affect wildlife in less apparent ways. Here we investigate how anthropogenic noise impairs foraging, which has direct consequences for animal survival and reproductive success. Noise can disturb foraging via several mechanisms that may operate simultaneously, and thus their effects could not be disentangled hitherto. We developed a diagnostic framework that can be applied to identify the potential mechanisms of disturbance in any species capable of detecting the noise. We tested this framework using Daubenton's bats, which find prey by echolocation. We found that traffic noise reduced foraging efficiency in most bats. Unexpectedly, this effect was present even if the playback noise did not overlap in frequency with the prey echoes. Neither overlapping nor non-overlapping noise influenced the search effort required for a successful prey capture. Hence, noise did not mask prey echoes or reduce the attention of bats. Instead, noise acted as an aversive stimulus that caused avoidance response, thereby reducing foraging efficiency. We conclude that conservation policies may seriously underestimate numbers of species affected and the multilevel effects on animal fitness, if the mechanisms of disturbance are not considered. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Understanding the responses of lake systems to past climate change and human activity is critical for assessing and predicting the fate of lake carbon (C) in the future. In this study we synthesized records of the sediment accumulation from 82 lakes and of C sequestration from 58 lakes with direct organic C measurements throughout China. We also identified the controlling factors of the long-term sediment and C accumulation dynamics in these lakes during the past 12 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP). Our results indicated an overall increasing trend of sediment and C accumulation since 12 ka, with an accumulation peak in the last couple of millennia for all lakes in China, corresponding to terrestrial organic matter input due to land use change. The Holocene lake sediment accumulation rate (SAR) and C accumulation rate (CAR) averaged (Mean ± SE) 0.47 ± 0.05 mm yr -1 and 7.7 ± 1.4 g C m -2 yr -1 in China, respectively, comparable to the previous estimates for boreal and temperate regions. The SAR for lakes in the East Plain of subtropical China (1.05 ± 0.28 mm yr -1 ) was higher than those in other regions ( P 〈 0.05). However, CAR did not vary significantly among regions. Overall, the variability and history of climate and anthropogenic interference regulated the temporal and spatial dynamics of sediment and C sequestration for lakes in China. We estimated the total amount of C burial in lakes of China as 8.0 ± 1.0 Pg C. This first estimation of total C storage and dynamics in lakes of China confirms the importance of lakes in land C budget in monsoon-influenced regions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: There is concern that food insecurity will increase in southern Africa due to climate change. We quantified the response of maize yield to projected climate change and to three key management options – planting date, fertilizer use and cultivar choice – using the crop simulation model APSIM at two contrasting sites in Zimbabwe. Three climate periods up to 2100 were selected to cover both near- and long-term climates. Future climate data under two radiative forcing scenarios were generated from five Global Circulation Models. The temperature is projected to increase significantly in Zimbabwe by 2100 with no significant change in mean annual total rainfall. When planting before mid-December with a high fertilizer rate, the simulated average grain yield for all three maize cultivars declined by 13% for the periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069, and by 20% for 2070-2099 compared with the baseline climate, under low radiative forcing. Larger declines in yield of up to 32% were predicted for 2070-2099 with high radiative forcing. Despite differences in annual rainfall, similar trends in yield changes were observed for the two sites studied, Hwedza and Makoni. The yield response to delay in planting was non-linear. Fertilizer increased yield significantly under both baseline and future climates. The response of maize to mineral nitrogen decreased with progressing climate change, implying a decrease in the optimal fertilizer rate in the future. Our results suggest that in the near future improved crop and soil fertility management will remain important for enhanced maize yield. Towards the end of the 21st Century, however, none of the farm management options tested in the study can avoid large yield losses in southern Africa due to climate change. There is a need to transform the current cropping systems of southern Africa to offset the negative impacts of climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Fresh waters make a disproportionately large contribution to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with shallow lakes being particular hotspots. Given their global prevalence, how GHG fluxes from shallow lakes are altered by climate change may have profound implications for the global carbon cycle. Empirical evidence for the temperature dependence of the processes controlling GHG production in natural systems is largely based on the correlation between seasonal temperature variation and seasonal change in GHG fluxes. However, ecosystem-level GHG fluxes could be influenced by factors, which whilst varying seasonally with temperature are actually either indirectly related (e.g. primary producer biomass) or largely unrelated to temperature, for instance nutrient loading. Here, we present results from the longest running shallow-lake mesocosm experiment which demonstrate that nutrient concentrations override temperature as a control of both the total and individual GHG flux. Furthermore, testing for temperature treatment effects at low and high nutrient levels separately showed only one, rather weak, positive effect of temperature (CH 4 flux at high nutrients). In contrast, at low nutrients, the CO 2 efflux was lower in the elevated temperature treatments, with no significant effect on CH 4 or N 2 O fluxes. Further analysis identified possible indirect effects of temperature treatment. For example, at low nutrient levels increased macrophyte abundance was associated with significantly reduced fluxes of both CH 4 and CO 2 for both total annual flux and monthly observation data. As macrophyte abundance was positively related to temperature treatment, this suggests the possibility of indirect temperature effects, via macrophyte abundance, on CH 4 and CO 2 flux. These findings indicate that fluxes of GHGs from shallow lakes may be controlled more by factors indirectly related to temperature, in this case nutrient concentration and the abundance of primary producers. Thus, at ecosystem scale response to climate change may not follow predictions based on the temperature dependence of metabolic processes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The tropical coffee crop has been predicted to be threatened by future climate changes and global warming. However, the real biological effects of such changes remain unknown. Therefore, this work aims to link the physiological and biochemical responses of photosynthesis to elevated air [CO 2 ] and temperature in cultivated genotypes of Coffea arabica L. (cv. Icatu and IPR108) and C. canephora cv. Conilon CL153. Plants were grown for 1 year at 25/20ºC (day/night) and 380 or 700 μL CO 2 L -1 , then subjected to temperature increase (0.5ºC/day) to 42/34ºC. Leaf impacts related to stomatal traits, gas exchanges, C-isotope composition, fluorescence parameters, thylakoid electron transport and enzyme activities were assessed at 25/20ºC, 31/25ºC, 37/30ºC and 42/34ºC. The results showed that 1) both species were remarkably heat tolerant up to 37/30ºC, but at 42/34ºC a threshold for irreversible non-stomatal deleterious effects was reached. Impairments were greater in C. arabica (especially in Icatu) and under normal [CO 2 ]. Photosystems and thylakoid electron transport were shown to be quite heat tolerant, contrasting to the enzymes related to energy metabolism, including RuBisCO, which were the most sensitive components. 2) Significant stomatal trait modifications were promoted almost exclusively by temperature and were species dependent. Elevated [CO 2 ] 3) strongly mitigated the impact of temperature on both species, particularly at 42/34ºC, modifying the response to supra-optimal temperatures, 4) promoted higher water use efficiency under moderately higher temperature (31/25 ºC), and 5) did not provoke photosynthetic down-regulation. Instead, enhancements in [CO 2 ] strengthened photosynthetic photochemical efficiency, energy use and biochemical functioning at all temperatures.. Our novel findings demonstrate a relevant heat resilience of coffee species and that elevated [CO 2 ] remarkably mitigated the impact of heat on coffee physiology, therefore playing a key role in this crop sustainability under future climate change scenarios. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Protected areas (PAs) are an essential tool for the conservation of biodiversity globally. Previous studies have focussed on the effectiveness of PAs and the design of optimal PA networks. However, not all PAs remain intact permanently; many PAs undergo downgrading, downsizing and/or degazettement (PADDD), a fact largely ignored until recently. The drivers of enacted PADDD events and the factors influencing its spatial occurrence are poorly understood, potentially undermining the efficacy of PAs and PA networks. Here we examine the spatial relationship between PADDD and economic, demographic, and structural variables, using a 110 year dataset of 342 enacted PADDD events across 44 countries in the tropics and sub tropics. We find that the probability of an enacted PADDD event increases with the size of the PA and through a synergistic interaction between PA size and local population densities. Our results are robust to the under-reporting of enacted PADDD events that occur among smaller PAs and in regions with lower population density. We find an economic motive for PADDD events, given that the opportunity costs associated with larger PAs are higher, on average, than smaller PAs. Our findings suggest a need for conservation practitioners to better consider PA characteristics, as well as the social, economic, and political context in which PAs are situated, to aid the creation of more efficient and sustainable PA networks. In particular, the dynamics of enacted PADDD events highlight the need to explicitly consider PA robustness as a core component of systematic conservation planning for PA networks. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Assuming that co-distributed species are exposed to similar environmental conditions, ecological niche models (ENMs) of bird and plant species inhabiting tropical dry forests (TDFs) in Mexico were developed to evaluate future projections of their distribution for the years 2050 and 2070. We used ENM-based predictions and climatic data for two Global Climate Models, considering two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 / RCP8.5). We also evaluated the effects of habitat loss and the importance of the Mexican system of Protected Areas (PAs) on the projected models for a more detailed prediction of TDFs and to identify hotspots that require conservation actions. We identified four major distributional areas: the main one located along the Pacific Coast (from Sonora to Chiapas, including the Cape and Bajío regions, and the Balsas river basin), and three isolated areas: the Yucatán peninsula, central Veracruz, and southern Tamaulipas. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction (~61%) of the TDFs predicted area occurred, whereas climate change models suggested (in comparison to the present distribution model) an increase in area of 3.0-10.0% and 3.0-9.0% for 2050 and 2070, respectively. In future scenarios, TDFs will occupy areas above its current average elevational distribution that are outside of its present geographical range. Our findings show that TDFs may persist in Mexican territory until the middle of the XXI century; however, the challenges about long-term conservation are partially addressed (only 7% unaffected within the Mexican network of PAs) with the current Mexican PAs network. Based on our ENM approach, we suggests that a combination of models of species inhabiting present TDFs and taking into account change scenarios represent an invaluable tool in order to create new PAs and ecological corridors, as a response to the increasing levels of habitat destruction and the effects of climate change on this ecosystem. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Avian communities of arid ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to global climate change due to the magnitude of projected change for desert regions and the inherent challenges for species residing in resource limited ecosystems. How arid-zone birds will be affected by rapid increases in air temperature and increased drought frequency and severity is poorly understood because avian responses to climate change have primarily been studied in the relatively mesic northern temperate regions. We studied the effects of increasing air temperature and aridity on a Burrowing Owl ( Athene cunicularia ) population in the southwestern USA from 1998-2013. Over 16 years, the breeding population declined 98.1%, from 52 pairs to 1 pair, and nest success and fledgling output also declined significantly. These trends were strongly associated with the combined effects of decreased precipitation and increased air temperature. Arrival on the breeding grounds, pair formation, nest initiation, and hatch dates all showed significant delays ranging from 9.4 to 25.1 days over 9 years, which have negative effects on reproduction. Adult and juvenile body mass decreased significantly over time, with a loss of 7.9% mass in adult males and 10.9% mass in adult females over 16 years, and a loss of 20.0% mass in nestlings over 8 years. Taken together, these population and reproductive trends have serious implications for local population persistence. The southwestern USA has been identified as a climate change hotspot, with projections of warmer temperatures, less winter precipitation, and an increase in frequency and severity of extreme events including drought and heat waves. An increasingly warm and dry climate may contribute to this species’ decline, and may already be a driving force of their apparent decline in the desert southwest. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Cities are growing rapidly, thereby expected to cause a large-scale global biotic homogenization. Evidence for the homogenization hypothesis is mostly derived from plants and birds, whereas arthropods have so far been neglected. Here, I tested the homogenization hypothesis with three insect indicator groups, namely true bugs, leafhoppers, and beetles. In particular, I was interested whether insect species community composition differs between urban and rural areas, whether they are more similar between cities than between rural areas, and whether the found pattern is explained by true species turnover, species diversity gradients and geographic distance, by non-native or specialist species, respectively. I analysed insect species communities sampled on birch trees in a total of six Swiss cities and six rural areas nearby. In all indicator groups urban and rural community composition was significantly dissimilar due to native species turnover. Further, for bug and leafhopper communities I found evidence for large-scale homogenization due to urbanization, which was driven by reduced species turnover of specialist species in cities. Species turnover of beetle communities was similar between cities and rural areas. Interestingly, when specialist species of beetles were excluded from the analyses, cities were more dissimilar than rural areas, suggesting biotic differentiation of beetle communities in cities. Non-native species did not affect species turnover of the insect groups. However, given non-native arthropod species are increasing rapidly their homogenizing effect might be detected more often in future. Overall, the results show that urbanization has a negative large-scale impact on the diversity specialist species of the investigated insect groups. Specific measures in cities targeted at increasing the persistence of specialist species typical for the respective biogeographic region could help to stop the loss of biodiversity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Warming and eutrophication are two of the most important global change stressors for natural ecosystems, but their interaction is poorly understood. We used a dynamic model of complex, size-structured food webs to assess interactive effects on diversity and network structure. We found antagonistic impacts: warming increases diversity in eutrophic systems and decreases it in oligotrophic systems. These effects interact with the community size structure: communities of similarly-sized species such as parasitoid-host systems are stabilized by warming and destabilized by eutrophication, whereas the diversity of size-structured predator-prey networks decreases strongly with warming, but decreases only weakly with eutrophication. Non-random extinction risks for generalists and specialists lead to higher connectance in networks without size structure and lower connectance in size-structured communities. Overall, our results unravel interactive impacts of warming and eutrophication and suggest that size structure may serve as an important proxy for predicting the community sensitivity to these global change stressors. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study and turtle species. There is no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris.

Description: Global rice agriculture will be increasingly challenged by water scarcity, while at the same time changes in demand (e.g. changes in diets or increasing demand for biofuels) will feed back on agricultural practices. These factors are changing traditional cropping patterns from double-rice to the introduction of upland crops in the dry season. For a comprehensive assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) balances, we measured methane (CH 4 ) / nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and agronomic parameters over 2.5 years in double-rice cropping (R-R) and paddy rice rotations diversified with either maize (R-M) or aerobic rice (R-A) in upland cultivation. Introduction of upland crops in the dry season reduced irrigation water use and CH 4 emissions by 66-81% and 95-99%, respectively. Moreover, for practices including upland crops, CH 4 emissions in the subsequent wet season with paddy rice were reduced by 54-60%. Although annual N 2 O emissions increased twice- to threefold in the diversified systems, the strong reduction of CH 4 led to a significantly lower (p〈0.05) annual GWP (CH 4 +N 2 O) as compared to the traditional double-rice cropping system. Measurements of soil organic carbon (SOC) contents before and three years after introduction of upland crop rotations indicated a SOC loss for the R-M system, while for the other systems SOC stocks were unaffected. This trend for R-M systems needs to be followed since it has significant consequences not only for the GWP balance but also with regard to soil fertility. Economic assessment showed a similar gross profit span for R-M and R-R, while gross profits for R-A were reduced as a consequence of lower productivity. Nevertheless, regarding a future increase of water scarcity it can be expected that mixed lowland-upland systems will expand in SE Asia as water requirements were cut by more than half in both rotation systems with upland crops. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Agricultural systems are being challenged to decrease water use and increase production while climate becomes more variable and the world's population grows. Low water use efficiency is traditionally characterized by high water use relative to low grain production and usually occurs under dry conditions. However, when a cropping system fails to take advantage of available water during wet conditions, this is also an inefficiency and is often detrimental to the environment. Here we provide a systems-level definition of water use efficiency (sWUE) that addresses both production and environmental quality goals through incorporating all major system water losses (evapotranspiration, drainage, and runoff). We extensively calibrated and tested the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) using six years of continuous crop and soil measurements in corn- and soybean-based cropping systems in central Iowa, USA. We then used the model to determine water use, loss, and grain production in each system and calculated sWUE in years that experienced drought, flood, or historically average precipitation. Systems water use efficiency was found to be greatest during years with average precipitation. Simulation analysis using 28 years of historical precipitation data, plus the same dataset with ± 15% variation in daily precipitation, showed that in this region 430 mm of seasonal (planting to harvesting) rainfall resulted in the optimum sWUE for corn, and 317 mm for soybean. Above these precipitation levels, the corn and soybean yields did not increase further, but the water loss from the system via runoff and drainage increased substantially, leading to a high likelihood of soil, nutrient, and pesticide movement from the field to waterways. As the Midwestern US is predicted to experience more frequent drought and flood, inefficiency of cropping systems water use will also increase. This work provides a framework to concurrently evaluate production and environmental performance of cropping systems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The Southern Ocean ecosystem is undergoing rapid physical and biological changes that are likely to have profound implications for higher-order predators. Here we compare the long-term, historical responses of Southern Ocean predators to climate change. We examine palaeoecological evidence for changes in the abundance and distribution of seabirds and marine mammals, and place these into context with palaeoclimate records in order to identify key environmental drivers associated with population changes. Our synthesis revealed two key factors underlying Southern Ocean predator population changes; 1) the availability of ice-free ground for breeding, and 2) access to productive foraging grounds. The processes of glaciation and sea ice fluctuation were key; the distributions and abundances of elephant seals, snow petrels, gentoo, chinstrap and Adélie penguins all responded strongly to the emergence of new breeding habitat coincident with deglaciation and reductions in sea ice. Access to productive foraging grounds was another limiting factor, with snow petrels, king and emperor penguins all affected by reduced prey availability in the past. Several species were isolated in glacial refugia and there is evidence that refuge populations were supported by polynyas. While the underlying drivers of population change were similar across most Southern Ocean predators, the individual responses of species to environmental change varied because of species specific factors such as dispersal ability and environmental sensitivity. Such interspecific differences are likely to affect the future climate change responses of Southern Ocean marine predators and should be considered in conservation plans. Comparative palaeoecological studies are a valuable source of long-term data on species’ responses to environmental change that can provide important insights into future climate change responses. This synthesis highlights the importance of protecting productive foraging grounds proximate to breeding locations, as well as the potential role of polynyas as future Southern Ocean refugia. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Human activities are causing rapid environmental change at a global scale. Urbanization is responsible for some of the most extreme human-altered habitats and is a known driver of evolutionary change, but evidence and understanding of these processes is limited. Here, we investigate the potential underlying mechanisms contributing to the contemporary evolution of migration behaviour in the Eurasian blackcap ( Sylvia atricapilla ). Blackcaps from central Europe have been wintering in urban areas of Britain with increasing frequency over the past 60 years, rather than migrating south to the Mediterranean. It has been hypothesized that the popularization of providing supplementary foods for wild birds within Britain may have influenced this marked migratory change, but quantifying the selective forces shaping evolutionary changes remains challenging. Using a long-term national scale data set, we examine both the spatial distribution and interannual variation in blackcap wintering behaviour in Britain in relation to supplementary food availability and local climate. Over a 12-year period, we show that blackcaps are becoming increasingly associated with the provision of supplementary foods in British gardens, and that the reliability of bird food supplies is influencing their winter distribution at a national scale. In addition, local climatic temperatures and broader scale weather variation are also important determinants of blackcap wintering patterns once they arrive in Britain. Based on our findings, we conclude that a synergistic effect of increased availability of feeding resources, in the form of garden bird food, coupled with climatic amelioration, has enabled a successful new wintering population to become established in Britain. As global biodiversity is threatened by human-induced environmental change, this study presents new and timely evidence of the role human activities can play in shaping evolutionary trajectories.

Description: Managed adaptation could reduce the risks of climate change to the world's ecosystems, but there have been surprisingly few practical evaluations of the options available. For example, riparian woodland is advocated widely as shade to reduce warming in temperate streams, but few studies have considered collateral effects on species composition or ecosystem functions. Here, we use cross sectional analyses at two scales (region and within streams) to investigate whether four types of riparian management, including those proposed to reduce potential climate change impacts, might also affect the composition, functional character, dynamics and energetic resourcing of macroinvertebrates in upland Welsh streams (UK). Riparian land use across the region had only small effects on invertebrate taxonomic composition, while stable isotope data showed how energetic resources assimilated by macroinvertebrates in all functional guilds were split roughly 50:50 between terrestrial and aquatic origins irrespective of riparian management. Nevertheless, streams draining the most extensive deciduous woodland had the greatest stocks of coarse particulate matter (CPOM) and greater numbers of “shredding” detritivores. Stream-scale investigations showed that macroinvertebrate biomass in deciduous woodland streams was around twice that in moorland streams, and lowest of all in streams draining non-native conifers. The unexpected absence of contrasting terrestrial signals in the isotopic data implies that factors other than local land use affect the relative incorporation of allochthonous subsidies into riverine food webs. Nevertheless, our results reveal how planting deciduous riparian trees along temperate headwaters as an adaptation to climate change can modify macroinvertebrate function, increase biomass and potentially enhance resilience by increasing basal resources where cover is extensive (〉60m riparian width). We advocate greater urgency in efforts to understand the ecosystem consequences of climate change adaptation in order to guide future actions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Evidence for the theory of biotic resistance is equivocal, with experiments often finding a negative relationship between invasion success and native species richness, and large-scale comparative studies finding a positive relationship. Biotic resistance derives from local species interactions, yet global and regional studies often analyze data at coarse spatial grains. In addition, differences in competitive environments across regions may confound tests of biotic resistance based solely on native species richness of the invaded community. Using global and regional datasets for fishes in river and stream reaches, we ask two questions: 1) does a negative relationship exist between native and non-native species richness and 2) do non-native species originate from higher diversity systems. A negative relationship between native and non-native species richness in local assemblages was found at the global scale, while regional patterns revealed the opposite trend. At both spatial scales, however, nearly all non-native species originated from river basins with higher native species richness than the basin of the invaded community. Together, these findings imply that coevolved ecological interactions in species-rich systems inhibit establishment of generalist non-native species from less diverse communities. Consideration of both the ecological and evolutionary aspects of community assembly is critical to understanding invasion patterns. Distinct evolutionary histories in different regions strongly influence invasion of intact communities that are relatively un-impacted by human actions, and may explain the conflicting relationship between native and non-native species richness found at different spatial scales. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The functional biogeography of tropical forests is expressed in foliar chemicals that are key physiologically-based predictors of plant adaptation to changing environmental conditions including climate. However, understanding the degree to which environmental filters sort the canopy chemical characteristics of forest canopies remains a challenge. Here we report on the elevation and soil-type dependence of forest canopy chemistry among 75 compositionally and environmentally distinct forests in nine regions, with a total of 7819 individual trees representing 3246 species collected, identified and assayed for foliar traits. We assessed whether there are consistent relationships between canopy chemical traits and both elevation and soil type, and evaluated the general role of phylogeny in mediating of patterns of canopy traits within and across communities. Chemical trait variation and partitioning suggested a general model based on four inter-connected findings. First, geographic variation at the soil Order level, expressing broad changes in fertility, underpins major shifts in foliar phosphorus (P) and calcium (Ca). Second, elevation-dependent shifts in average community leaf dry mass per area (LMA), chlorophyll, and carbon allocation (including non-structural carbohydrates) are most strongly correlated with changes in foliar Ca. Third, chemical diversity within communities is driven by differences between species rather than by plasticity within species. Finally, elevation- and soil-dependent changes in N, LMA and leaf carbon allocation are mediated by canopy compositional turnover, whereas foliar P and Ca are driven more by changes in site conditions than by phylogeny. Our findings have broad implications for understanding the global ecology of humid tropical forests, and their functional responses to changing climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations increase plant productivity and affect soil microbial communities, with possible consequences for the turnover rate of soil carbon (C) pools and feedbacks to the atmosphere. In a previous analysis (van Groenigen et al., 2014), we used experimental data to inform a one-pool model, and showed that elevated CO 2 increases the decomposition rate of soil organic C, negating the storage potential of soil. However, a two-pool soil model can potentially explain patterns of soil C dynamics without invoking effects of CO 2 on decomposition rates. To address this issue, we refit our data to a two-pool soil C model. We found that CO 2 enrichment increases decomposition rates of both fast and slow C pools. In addition, elevated CO 2 decreased the carbon use efficiency of soil microbes (CUE), thereby further reducing soil C storage. These findings are consistent with numerous empirical studies and corroborate the results from our previous analysis. To facilitate understanding of C dynamics, we suggest that empirical and theoretical studies incorporate multiple soil C pools with potentially variable decomposition rates. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Coherent timing of agricultural expansion, fertilizer application, atmospheric nutrient deposition, and accelerated global warming is expected to promote synchronous fertilization of regional surface waters and coherent development of algal blooms and lake eutrophication. While broad-scale cyanobacterial expansion is evident in global meta-analyses, little is known of whether lakes in discrete catchments within a common lake district also exhibit coherent water quality degradation through anthropogenic forcing. Consequently, the primary goal of this study was to determine whether agricultural development since ca. 1900, accelerated use of fertilizer since 1960, atmospheric deposition of reactive N, or regional climate warming has resulted in coherent patterns of eutrophication of surface waters in southern Alberta, Canada. Unexpectedly, analysis of sedimentary pigments as an index of changes in total algal abundance since ca. 1850 revealed that while total algal abundance (as β-carotene, pheophytin a ) increased in nine of 10 lakes over 150 years, the onset of eutrophication varied by a century and was asynchronous across basins. Similarly, analysis of temporal sequences with least squares regression revealed that the relative abundance of cyanobacteria (echinenone) either decreased or did not change significantly in eight of the lakes since ca. 1850, whereas purple sulphur bacteria (as okenone) increased significantly in seven study sites. These patterns are consistent with the catchment filter hypothesis which posits that lakes exhibit unique responses to common forcing associated with the influx of mass as water, nutrients, or particles. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Plants are often genetically specialized as ecotypes attuned to local environmental conditions. When conditions change, the optimal environment may be physically displaced from the local population, unless dispersal or in situ evolution keep pace, resulting in a phenomenon called adaptational lag. Using a 30 year old reciprocal transplant study across a 475 km latitudinal gradient, we tested the adaptational lag hypothesis by measuring both short-term (tiller population growth rates) and long-term (17 year survival) fitness components of Eriophorum vaginatum ecotypes in Alaska, where climate change may have already displaced the optimum. Analyzing the transplant study as a climate transfer experiment, we showed that the climate optimum for plant performance was displaced ca. 140 km north of home sites, although plants were not generally declining in size at home sites. Adaptational lag is expected to be widespread globally for long-lived, ecotypically specialized plants, with disruptive consequences for communities and ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity is a critical determinant of plant species capacity to cope with climate change. A long-standing hypothesis states that greater levels of environmental variability will select for genotypes with greater phenotypic plasticity. However, few studies have examined how genotypes of woody species originating from contrasting environments respond to multiple climate change factors. Here, we investigated the main and interactive effects of elevated [CO 2 ] (C E ) and elevated temperature (T E ) on growth and physiology of Coastal (warmer, less variable temperature environment) and Upland (cooler, more variable temperature environment) genotypes of an Australian woody species Telopea speciosissima . Both genotypes were positively responsive to C E (35% and 29% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively), but only the Coastal genotype exhibited positive growth responses to T E . We found that the Coastal genotype exhibited greater growth response to T E (47% and 85% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively) when compared with the Upland genotype (no change in dry mass or leaf area). No intraspecific variation in physiological plasticity was detected under C E or T E , and the interactive effects of C E and T E on intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity were also largely absent. Overall, T E was a more effective climate factor than C E in exposing genotypic variation in our woody species. Our results contradict the paradigm that genotypes from more variable climates will exhibit greater phenotypic plasticity in future climate regimes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In their recent Letter Olalla-Tárraga et al. (2015; hereafter ‘OT&al’) applied phylogenetic path analysis to investigate the determinants of range size in terrestrial mammals. They concurred with Di Marco & Santini (2015; hereafter ‘DM&S’) in identifying the predictive importance of human pressure, but disagreed that this role prevails over biological traits, criticizing some conceptual and methodological aspects of DM&S. OT&al found that climatic niche is the primary predictor of range size, while human pressure and biological traits were of secondary importance. Here we discuss that the two studies are not directly comparable, and we address the criticisms to DM&S. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In a recent letter, Thomsen and Wernberg (2015) reanalyzed data compiled for our recent paper (Lyons et al. 2014). In that paper, we examined the effects of macroalgal blooms and macroalgal mats on seven important measures of community structure and ecosystem functioning, and explored several ecological and methodological factors that might explain some of the variation in the observed effects. Thomsen and Wernberg (2015) reanalyzed two small subsets of the data, focusing on experimental studies examining effects of blooms/mats on invertebrate abundance. Their analyses revealed two interesting patterns. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Global warming will jeopardize the persistence and genetic diversity of many species. Assisted colonization, or the movement of species beyond their current range boundary, is a conservation strategy proposed for species with limited dispersal abilities or adaptive potential. However, species that rely on photoperiodic and thermal cues for development may experience conflicting signals if transported across latitudes. Relocating multiple, distinct populations may remedy this quandary by expanding genetic variation and promoting evolutionary responses in the receiving habitat - a strategy known as assisted gene flow. In order to better inform these policies, we planted seeds from latitudinally distinct populations of the annual legume, Chamaecrista fasciculata , in a potential future colonization site north of its current range boundary. Plants were exposed to ambient or elevated temperatures via infrared heating. We monitored several life history traits and estimated patterns of natural selection in order to determine the adaptive value of plastic responses. To assess the feasibility of assisted gene flow between phenologically distinct populations, we counted flowers each day and estimated the degree of temporal isolation between populations. Increased temperatures advanced each successive phenological trait more than the last, resulting in a compressed life cycle for all but the southern-most population. Warming altered patterns of selection on flowering onset and vegetative biomass. Population performance was dependent on latitude of origin, with the northern-most population performing best under ambient conditions and the southern-most performing most poorly, even under elevated temperatures. Among-population differences in flowering phenology limited the potential for genetic exchange among the northern and southern-most populations. All plastic responses to warming were neutral or adaptive, however photoperiodic constraints will likely necessitate evolutionary responses for long-term persistence, especially when involving populations from disparate latitudes. With strategic planning, our results suggest that assisted colonization and assisted gene flow may be feasible options for preservation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Species of Alexandrium produce potent neurotoxins termed paralytic shellfish toxins and are expanding their ranges worldwide, concurrent with increases in sea surface temperature. The metabolism of molluscs is temperature dependent, and increases in ocean temperature may influence both the abundance and distribution of Alexandrium and the dynamics of toxin uptake and depuration in shellfish. Here, we conducted a large-scale study of the effect of temperature on the uptake and depuration of paralytic shellfish toxins in three commercial oysters ( Saccostrea glomerata and diploid and triploid Crassostrea gigas, n  = 252 per species/ploidy level). Oysters were acclimated to two constant temperatures, reflecting current and predicted climate scenarios (22 and 27 °C), and fed a diet including the paralytic shellfish toxin-producing species Alexandrium minutum . While the oysters fed on A. minutum in similar quantities, concentrations of the toxin analogue GTX1,4 were significantly lower in warm-acclimated S. glomerata and diploid C. gigas after 12 days. Following exposure to A. minutum , toxicity of triploid C. gigas was not affected by temperature. Generally, detoxification rates were reduced in warm-acclimated oysters. The routine metabolism of the oysters was not affected by the toxins, but a significant effect was found at a cellular level in diploid C. gigas . The increasing incidences of Alexandrium blooms worldwide are a challenge for shellfish food safety regulation. Our findings indicate that rising ocean temperatures may reduce paralytic shellfish toxin accumulation in two of the three oyster types; however, they may persist for longer periods in oyster tissue.

Description: Organic matter (OM) plays a major role in both terrestrial and oceanic biogeochemical cycles. The amount of carbon stored in these systems is far greater than that of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere, and annual fluxes of CO 2 from these pools to the atmosphere exceed those from fossil fuel combustion. Understanding the processes that determine the fate of detrital material is important for predicting the effects that climate change will have on feedbacks to the global carbon cycle. However, Earth System Models (ESMs) typically utilize very simple formulations of processes affecting the mineralization and storage of detrital OM. Recent changes in our view of the nature of this material and the factors controlling its transformation have yet to find their way into models. In this review, we highlight the current understanding of the role and cycling of detrital OM in terrestrial and marine systems and examine how this pool of material is represented in ESMs. We include a discussion of the different mineralization pathways available as organic matter moves from soils, through inland waters to coastal systems and ultimately into open ocean environments. We argue that there is strong commonality between aspects of OM transformation in both terrestrial and marine systems, and that our respective scientific communities would benefit from closer collaboration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The production of pyrogenic carbon (PyC; a continuum of organic carbon (C) ranging from partially charred biomass and charcoal to soot) is a widely acknowledged C sink, with the latest estimates indicating that ~50% of the PyC produced by vegetation fires potentially sequester C over centuries. Nevertheless, the quantitative importance of PyC in the global C balance remains contentious and therefore PyC is rarely considered in global C cycle and climate studies. Here we examine the robustness of existing evidence and identify the main research gaps in the production, fluxes and fate of PyC from vegetation fires. Much of the previous work on PyC production has focused on selected components of total PyC generated in vegetation fires, likely leading to underestimates. We suggest that global PyC production could be in the range of 114-379 Tg C yr −1 , i.e. ~0.2-0.6% of the annual terrestrial net primary production. According to our estimations, atmospheric emissions of soot/black C might be a smaller fraction of total PyC (〈2%) than previously reported. Research on the fate of PyC in the environment has mainly focused on its degradation pathways, and its accumulation and resilience either in situ (surface soils) or in ultimate sinks (marine sediments). Off-site transport, transformation and PyC storage in intermediate pools are often overlooked, which could explain the fate of a substantial fraction of the PyC mobilized annually. We propose new research directions addressing gaps in the global PyC cycle to fully understand the importance of the products of burning in global C cycle dynamics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Although the influence of nitrogen (N) addition on grassland plant communities has been widely studied, it is still unclear whether observed patterns and underlying mechanisms are constant across biomes. In this systematic review, we use meta-analysis and meta-regression to investigate the influence of N addition (here referring mostly to fertilisation) upon the biodiversity of temperate mountain grasslands (including montane, subalpine and alpine zones). Forty-two studies met our criteria of inclusion, resulting in 134 measures of effect size. The main general responses of mountain grasslands to N addition were increases in phytomass and reductions in plant species richness, as observed in lowland grasslands. More specifically, the analysis reveals that negative effects on species richness were exacerbated by dose (ha −1 year −1 ) and duration of N application (years) in an additive manner. Thus, sustained application of low to moderate levels of N over time had effects similar to short term application of high N doses. The climatic context also played an important role: the overall effects of N addition on plant species richness and diversity (Shannon index) were less pronounced in mountain grasslands experiencing cool rather than warm summers. Furthermore, the relative negative effect of N addition on species richness was more pronounced in managed communities, and was strongly negatively related to N-induced increases in phytomass, i.e. the greater the phytomass response to N addition, the greater the decline in richness. Altogether, this review not only establishes that plant biodiversity of mountain grasslands is negatively affected by N addition, it also demonstrates that several local management and abiotic factors interact with N addition to drive plant community changes. This synthesis yields essential information for a more sustainable management of mountain grasslands, emphasizing the importance of preserving and restoring grasslands with both low agricultural N application and limited exposure to N atmospheric deposition. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecosystem carbon (C) accrual and storage can be enhanced by removing large herbivores as well as by the fertilizing effect of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition. These drivers are unlikely to operate independently, yet their combined effect on aboveground and belowground C storage remains largely unexplored. We sampled inside and outside 19 upland grazing exclosures, established for up to 80 years, across an N deposition gradient (5–24 kg N ha −1  yr −1 ) and found that herbivore removal increased aboveground plant C stocks, particularly in moss, shrubs and litter. Soil C storage increased with atmospheric N deposition, and this was moderated by the presence or absence of herbivores. In exclosures receiving above 11 kg N ha −1  year −1 , herbivore removal resulted in increased soil C stocks. This effect was typically greater for exclosures dominated by dwarf shrubs ( Calluna vulgaris ) than by grasses ( Molinia caerulea ). The same pattern was observed for ecosystem C storage. We used our data to predict C storage for a scenario of removing all large herbivores from UK heathlands. Predictions were made considering herbivore removal only (ignoring N deposition) and the combined effects of herbivore removal and current N deposition rates. Predictions including N deposition resulted in a smaller increase in UK heathland C storage than predictions using herbivore removal only. This finding was driven by the fact that the majority of UK heathlands receive low N deposition rates at which herbivore removal has little effect on C storage. Our findings demonstrate the crucial link between herbivory by large mammals and atmospheric N deposition, and this interaction needs to be considered in models of biogeochemical cycling.

Description: The temperature dependence of the reaction kinetics of the Rubisco enzyme implies that, at the level of a chloroplast, the response of photosynthesis to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration (C a ) will increase with increasing air temperature. Vegetation models incorporating this interaction predict that the response of net primary productivity (NPP) to elevated CO 2 (eC a ) will increase with rising temperature, and will be substantially larger in warm tropical forests than in cold boreal forests. We tested these model predictions against evidence from eC a experiments by carrying out two meta-analyses. Firstly, we tested for an interaction effect on growth responses in factorial eC a x temperature experiments. This analysis showed a positive, but non-significant interaction effect (95% CI for above-ground biomass response = -0.8, 18.0%) between eC a and temperature. Secondly, we tested field-based eC a experiments on woody plants across the globe for a relationship between the eC a effect on plant biomass and mean annual temperature (MAT). This second analysis showed a positive but non-significant correlation between the eC a response and MAT. The magnitude of the interactions between CO 2 and temperature found in both meta-analyses were consistent with model predictions, even though both analyses gave non-significant results. Thus, we conclude that it is not possible to distinguish between the competing hypotheses of no interaction versus an interaction based on Rubisco kinetics from the available experimental database. Experiments in a wider range of temperature zones are required. Until such experimental data are available, model predictions should aim to incorporate uncertainty about this interaction. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In a letter to the editor Sundby (2015) expresses concerns about our study of changing spawning locations of the Northeast Arctic (NEA) stock of Atlantic cod over the period 1866-1969, where we identified statistically significant effects of the stock's demography whereas various climate indices all fell below statistical significance. Our conclusion on the role ascribed to climate disagrees with that of Sundby & Nakken (2008), which, based on a subset of our data and without considering demography, concluded that spawning was shifted northwards in warm periods. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Quantifying landscape-scale methane (CH 4 ) fluxes from boreal and arctic regions, and determining how they are controlled, is critical for predicting the magnitude of any CH 4 emission feedback to climate change. Furthermore, there remains uncertainty regarding the relative importance of small areas of strong methanogenic activity, versus larger areas with net CH 4 uptake, in controlling landscape-level fluxes. We measured CH 4 fluxes from multiple microtopographical subunits (sedge-dominated lawns, interhummocks and hummocks) within an aapa mire in subarctic Finland, as well as in drier ecosystems present in the wider landscape; lichen heath and mountain birch forest. An inter-comparison was carried out between fluxes measured using static chambers, up-scaled using a high resolution landcover map derived from aerial photography, and eddy covariance. Strong agreement was observed between the two methodologies, with emission rates greatest in lawns. CH 4 fluxes from lawns were strongly related to seasonal fluctuations in temperature, but their floating nature meant that water-table depth was not a key factor in controlling CH 4 release. In contrast, chamber measurements identified net CH 4 uptake in birch forest soils. An inter-comparison between the aerial photography and satellite remote sensing demonstrated that quantifying the distribution of the key CH 4 emitting and consuming plant communities was possible from satellite, allowing fluxes to be scaled up to a 100 km 2 area. For the full growing season (May to October), approximately 1.1 to 1.4 g CH 4 m −2 was released across the 100 km 2 area. This was based on up-scaled lawn emissions of 1.2 to 1.5 g CH 4 m −2 , versus an up-scaled uptake of 0.07 to 0.15 g CH 4 m −2 by the wider landscape. Given the strong temperature sensitivity of the dominant lawn fluxes, and the fact that lawns are unlikely to dry out, climate warming may substantially increase CH 4 emissions in northern Finland, and in aapa mire regions in general. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Intensification of agriculture to meet the global food, feed, and bioenergy demand entail increasing re-investment of carbon compounds (residues) into agro-systems to prevent decline of soil quality and fertility. However, agricultural intensification decreases soil methane uptake, reducing and even causing the loss of the methane sink function. In contrast to wetland agricultural soils (rice paddies), the methanotrophic potential in well-aerated agricultural soils have received little attention, presumably due to the anticipated low or negligible methane uptake capacity in these soils. Consequently, a detailed study verifying or refuting this assumption is still lacking. Exemplifying a typical agricultural practice, we determined the impact of bio-based residue application on soil methane flux, and determined the methanotrophic potential, including a qualitative (diagnostic microarray) and quantitative (group-specific qPCR assays) analysis of the methanotrophic community after residue amendments over two months. Unexpectedly, after amendments with specific residues we detected a significant transient stimulation of methane uptake confirmed by both the methane flux measurements and methane oxidation assay. This stimulation was apparently a result of induced cell-specific activity, rather than growth of the methanotroph population. Although transient, the heightened methane uptake offsets up to 16% of total gaseous CO 2 emitted during the incubation. The methanotrophic community, predominantly comprised of Methylosinus may facilitate methane oxidation in the agricultural soils. While agricultural soils are generally regarded as a net methane source or a relatively weak methane sink, our results show that methane oxidation rate can be stimulated, leading to higher soil methane uptake. Hence, even if agriculture exerts an adverse impact on soil methane uptake, implementing carefully designed management strategies (e.g. repeated application of specific residues) may compensate for the loss of the methane sink function following land-use change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Methane is an important greenhouse gas but characterizing production by source sector has proven difficult. Current estimates suggest herbivores produce ~20% (~76-189 Tg yr −1 ) of methane globally, with wildlife contributions uncertain. We develop a simple and accurate method to estimate methane emissions and reevaluate production by wildlife. We find a strikingly robust relationship between body mass and methane output exceeding the scaling expected by differences in metabolic rate. Our allometric model gives a significantly better fit to empirical data than IPCC Tier 1 and 2 calculations. Our analysis suggests that: a) the allometric model provides an easier and more robust estimate of methane production than IPCC models currently in use, b) output from wildlife is much higher than previously considered, and c) because of the sublinear allometric scaling of methane output with body mass, national emissions could be reduced if countries favored more, smaller livestock, over fewer, larger ones. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate change is resulting in a rapid expansion of shrubs in the Arctic. This expansion has been shown to be reinforced by positive feedbacks, and it could thus set the ecosystem on a trajectory towards an alternate, more productive regime. Herbivores, on the other hand, are known to counteract the effects of simultaneous climate warming on shrub biomass. However, little is known about the impact of herbivores on resilience of these ecosystems, i.e . the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and still remain in the same regime, retaining the same function, structure and feedbacks. Here we investigated how herbivores affect resilience of shrub-dominated systems to warming by studying the change of shrub biomass after a cessation of long-term experimental warming in a forest-tundra ecotone. As predicted, warming increased the biomass of shrubs, and in the absence of herbivores shrub biomass in tundra continued to increase four years after cessation of the artificial warming, indicating that positive effects of warming on plant growth may persist even over a subsequent colder period. Herbivores contributed to the resilience of these systems by returning them back to the original low-biomass regime in both forest and tundra habitats. These results support the prediction that higher shrub biomass triggers positive feedbacks on soil processes and microclimate, which enable maintaining the rapid shrub growth even in colder climates. Furthermore, the results show that in our system, herbivores facilitate the resilience of shrub-dominated ecosystems to climate warming. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Estuaries are dynamic environments at the land-sea interface that are strongly affected by inter-annual climate variability. Ocean-atmosphere processes propagate into estuaries from the sea and atmospheric processes over land propagate into estuaries from watersheds. We examined the effects of these two separate climate-driven processes on pelagic and demersal fish community structure along the salinity gradient in the San Francisco Estuary, California USA. A 33-year data set (1980-2012) on pelagic and demersal fishes spanning the freshwater to marine regions of the estuary suggested the existence of five estuarine salinity fish guilds: limnetic (salinity = 0-1), oligohaline (salinity = 1-12), mesohaline (salinity = 6-19), polyhaline (salinity = 19-28) and euhaline (salinity = 29-32). Climatic effects propagating from the adjacent Pacific Ocean, indexed by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the euhaline and polyhaline guilds. Climatic effects propagating over land, indexed as freshwater outflow from the watershed (OUT), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the oligohaline, mesohaline, polyhaline, and euhaline guilds. The effects of OUT propagated further down the estuary salinity gradient than the effects of NPGO propagated up the estuary salinity gradient, exemplifying the role of variable freshwater outflow as an important driver of biotic communities in river-dominated estuaries. These results illustrate how unique sources of climate variability interact to drive biotic communities and, therefore, that climate change is likely to be an important driver in shaping the future trajectory of biotic communities in estuaries and other transitional habitats. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15 year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021-2080 period by means of Regional Climate Change Models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer-autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15 year period. However, their predictions for the 2021-2080 period diverged. Rainfall based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer-autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Animal assemblages fulfill a critical set of ecological functions for ecosystems that may be altered substantially as climate change-induced distribution changes lead to community disaggregation and reassembly. We combine species and community perspectives to assess the consequences of projected geographic range changes for the diverse functional attributes of avian assemblages worldwide. Assemblage functional structure is projected to change highly unevenly across space. These differences arise from both changes in the number of species and changes in species’ relative local functional redundancy or distinctness. They sometimes result in substantial losses of functional diversity that could have severe consequences for ecosystem health. Range expansions may counter functional losses in high-latitude regions, but offer little compensation in many tropical and subtropical biomes. Future management of local community function and ecosystem services thus relies on understanding the global dynamics of species distributions and multiscale approaches that include the biogeographic context of species traits.

Description: Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) is the predominant form of environmental sex determination (ESD) in reptiles, but the adaptive significance of TSD in this group remains unclear. Additionally, the viability of species with TSD may be compromised as climate gets warmer. We simulated population responses in a turtle with TSD to increasing nest temperatures and compared the results to those of a virtual population with genotypic sex determination (GSD) and fixed sex ratios. Then, we assessed the effectiveness of TSD as a mechanism to maintain populations under climate change scenarios. TSD populations were more resilient to increased nest temperatures and mitigated the negative effects of high temperatures by increasing production of female offspring and therefore, future fecundity. That buffered the negative effect of temperature on the population growth. TSD provides an evolutionary advantage to sea turtles. However, this mechanism was only effective over a range of temperatures and will become inefficient as temperatures rise to levels projected by current climate change models. Projected global warming threatens survival of sea turtles, and the IPCC high gas concentration scenario may result in extirpation of the studied population in 50 years.

Description: Increased reactive nitrogen (N r ) deposition has raised the amount of N available to organisms and has greatly altered the transfer of energy through food webs, with major consequences for trophic dynamics. The aim of this review is to: 1) clarify the direct and indirect effects of N r deposition on forest and lake food webs in N limited biomes, 2) compare and contrast how aquatic and terrestrial systems respond to increased N r deposition, and 3) identify how the nutrient pathways within and between ecosystems change in response to N r deposition. We present that N r deposition releases primary producers from N limitation in both forest and lake ecosystems and raises plants’ N-content which in turn benefits herbivores with high N requirements. Such trophic effects are coupled with a general decrease in biodiversity caused by different N-use efficiencies; Slow-growing species with low rates of N turnover are replaced by fast-growing species with high rates of N turnover. In contrast, N r deposition diminishes belowground production in forests, due to a range of mechanisms that reduce microbial biomass, and decreases lake benthic productivity by switching herbivore growth from N to phosphorus (P) limitation, and by intensifying P limitation of benthic fish. The flow of nutrients between ecosystems is expected to change with increasing N r deposition. Due to higher litter production and more intense precipitation, more terrestrial matter will enter lakes. This will benefit bacteria and will in turn boost the microbial food web. Additionally, N r deposition promotes emergent insects which subsidize the terrestrial food web as prey for insectivores or by dying and decomposing on land. So far most studies have examined N r deposition effects on the food web base, whereas our review highlights that changes at the base of food webs substantially impact higher trophic levels and therefore food web structure and functioning. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Elevated atmospheric CO 2 generally enhances plant growth, but the magnitude of the effects depend, in part, on nutrient availability and plant photosynthetic pathway. Due to their pivotal role in nutrient cycling, changes in abundance of detritivores could influence the effects of elevated atmospheric CO 2 on essential ecosystem processes, such as decomposition and primary production. We conducted a field survey and a microcosm experiment to test the influence of changes in detritus based food chains on litter mass loss and plant growth response to elevated atmospheric CO 2 using two wetland plants: a C 3 sedge ( Scirpus olneyi ) and a C 4 grass ( Spartina patens ). Our field study revealed that organism's sensitivity to climate increased with trophic level resulting in strong inter-annual variation in detritus based food chain length. Our microcosm experiment demonstrated that increased detritivore abundance could not only enhance decomposition rates, but also enhance plant growth of S. olneyi in elevated atmospheric CO 2 conditions. In contrast, we found no evidence that changes in the detritus-based food chains influenced the growth of S. patens . Considered together, these results emphasize the importance of approaches that unite traditionally subdivided food web compartments and plant physiological processes to understand inter-annual variation in plant production response to elevated atmospheric CO 2. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Selective herbivory of palatable plant species provides a competitive advantage for unpalatable plant species, which often have slow growth rates and produce slowly decomposable litter. We hypothesized that through a shift in the vegetation community from palatable, deciduous dwarf shrubs to unpalatable, evergreen dwarf shrubs, selective herbivory may counteract the increased shrub abundance that is otherwise found in tundra ecosystems, in turn interacting with the responses of ecosystem carbon (C) stocks and CO 2 balance to climatic warming. We tested this hypothesis in a 19-year field experiment with factorial treatments of warming and simulated herbivory on the dominant deciduous dwarf shrub Vaccinium myrtillus . Warming was associated with a significantly increased vegetation abundance, with the strongest effect on deciduous dwarf shrubs, resulting in greater rates of both gross ecosystem production (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) as well as increased C stocks. Simulated herbivory increased the abundance of evergreen dwarf shrubs, most importantly Empetrum nigrum ssp. hermaphroditum, which led to a recent shift in the dominant vegetation from deciduous to evergreen dwarf shrubs. Simulated herbivory caused no effect on GEP and ER or the total ecosystem C stocks, indicating that the vegetation shift counteracted the herbivore-induced C loss from the system. A larger proportion of the total ecosystem C stock was found aboveground, rather than belowground, in plots treated with simulated herbivory. We conclude that by providing a competitive advantage to unpalatable plant species with slow growth rates and long life spans, selective herbivory may promote aboveground C stocks in a warming tundra ecosystem and, through this mechanism, counteract C losses that result from plant biomass consumption. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The geographic range of a species is arguably the basic unit in biogeography and macroecology (Brown et al., 1996). In particular, there has been a long-standing interest in understanding the mechanisms that shape the immense interspecific variation in geographic range size, a question often framed around Rapoport's rule (Whitton et al. 2012). As an emergent species-level trait, range sizes reflect the interplay of ecological and evolutionary processes and are of utmost importance for predicting speciation-extinction dynamics (Jablonski 2008). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The global European eel ( Anguilla anguilla ) stock is critically endangered according to the IUCN, and the European Commission has urged the development of conservation plans aimed to ensure its viability. However, the complex life cycle of this panmictic species, which reproduces in the open ocean but spends most of its pre-reproductive life in continental waters (thus embracing a huge geographic range and a variety of habitat types), makes it difficult to assess the long-term effectiveness of conservation measures. The interplay between local and global stressors raises intriguing cross-scale conservation challenges that require a comprehensive modelling approach to be addressed. We developed a full life cycle model of the global European eel stock, encompassing both the oceanic and the continental phase of eel's life, and explicitly allowing for spatial heterogeneity in vital rates, availability of suitable habitat and settlement potential via a metapopulation approach. We calibrated the model against a long-term time series of global European eel catches, and used it to hindcast the dynamics of the stock in the past and project it over the 21st century under different management scenarios. Although our analysis relies on a number of inevitable simplifying assumptions and on data that may not embrace the whole range of variation in population dynamics at the small spatiotemporal scale, our hindcast is consistent with the general pattern of decline of the stock over recent decades. The results of our projections suggest that i ) habitat loss played a major role in the European eel decline; ii ) the viability of the global stock is at risk if appropriate protection measures are not implemented; iii ) the recovery of spawner escapement requires that fishing mortality is significantly reduced; iv ) the recovery of recruitment might not be feasible if reproductive output is not enhanced. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The important role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle makes it imperative to assess changes in their carbon dynamics for accurate projections of future climate-vegetation feedbacks. Forest monitoring studies conducted over the past decades have found evidence for both increasing and decreasing growth rates of tropical forest trees. The limited duration of these studies restrained analyses to decadal scales and it is still unclear whether growth changes occurred over longer time scales, as would be expected if CO 2 fertilization stimulated tree growth. Furthermore, studies have so far dealt with changes in biomass gain at forest-stand level, but insights on species-specific growth changes – that ultimately determine community-level responses – are lacking. Here we analyse species-specific growth changes on a centennial scale, using growth data from tree-ring analysis for 13 tree species (~1300 trees), from three sites distributed across the tropics. We used an established (Regional Curve Standardization) and a new (Size Class Isolation) growth trend-detection method and explicitly assessed the influence of biases on the trend detection. In addition, we assessed whether aggregated trends were present within and across study sites. We found evidence for decreasing growth rates over time for 8-10 species, whereas increases were noted for two species and one showed no trend. Additionally, we found evidence for weak aggregated growth decreases at the site in Thailand and when analysing all sites simultaneously. The observed growth reductions suggest deteriorating growth conditions, perhaps due to warming. However, other causes cannot be excluded, such as recovery from large-scale disturbances or changing forest dynamics. Our findings contrast growth patterns that would be expected if elevated CO 2 would stimulate tree growth. These results suggest that commonly assumed growth increases of tropical forests may not occur, which could lead to erroneous predictions of carbon dynamics of tropical forest under climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Organic carbon (OC) sequestration in degraded semi-arid environments by improved soil management is assumed to contribute substantially to climate change mitigation. However, information about the soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration potential in steppe soils and their current saturation status remains unknown. In this study, we estimated the OC storage capacity of semi-arid grassland soils on the basis of remote, natural steppe fragments in Northern China. Based on the maximum OC saturation of silt and clay particles 〈20 μm, OC sequestration potentials of degraded steppe soils (grazing land, arable land, eroded areas) were estimated. The analysis of natural grassland soils revealed a strong linear regression between the proportion of the fine fraction and its OC content, confirming the importance of silt and clay particles for OC stabilization in steppe soils. This relationship was similar to derived regressions in temperate and tropical soils but on a lower level, probably due to a lower C input and different clay mineralogy. In relation to the estimated OC storage capacity, degraded steppe soils showed a high OC saturation of 78 to 85% despite massive SOC losses due to unsustainable land use. As a result, the potential of degraded grassland soils to sequester additional OC was generally low. This can be related to a relatively high contribution of labile SOC, which is preferentially lost in the course of soil degradation. Moreover, wind erosion leads to substantial loss of silt and clay particles and consequently results in a direct loss of the ability to stabilize additional OC. Our findings indicate that the SOC loss in semi-arid environments induced by intensive land use is largely irreversible. Observed SOC increases after improved land management mainly result in an accumulation of labile SOC prone to land use/climate changes and therefore cannot be regarded as contribution to long-term OC sequestration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Global warming poses a threat to organisms with temperature-dependent sex determination because it can affect operational sex ratios. Using a multigenerational experiment with a marine fish, we provide the first evidence that parents developing from early life at elevated temperatures can adjust their offspring gender through nongenetic and nonbehavioural means. However, this adjustment was not possible when parents reproduced, but did not develop, at elevated temperatures. Complete restoration of the offspring sex ratio occurred when parents developed at 1.5 °C above the present-day average temperature for one generation. However, only partial improvement in the sex ratio occurred at 3.0 °C above average conditions, even after two generations, suggesting a limitation to transgenerational plasticity when developmental temperature is substantially increased. This study highlights the potential for transgenerational plasticity to ameliorate some impacts of climate change and that development from early life may be essential for expression of transgenerational plasticity in some traits.

Description: Knowledge of how temperature influences an organism's physiology and behaviour is of paramount importance for understanding and predicting the impacts of climate change on species’ interactions. While the behaviour of many organisms is driven by chemical information on which they rely to detect resources, conspecifics, natural enemies, and competitors, the effects of temperature on infochemical-mediated interactions remain largely unexplored. Here, we experimentally show that temperature strongly influences the emission of infochemicals by ladybeetle larvae which, in turn, modifies the oviposition behaviour of conspecific females. Temperature also directly affects female perception of infochemicals and their oviposition behaviour. Our results suggest that temperature-mediated effects on chemical communication can influence flows across system boundaries (e.g. immigration and emigration) and thus alter the dynamics and stability of ecological networks. We therefore argue that investigating the effects of temperature on chemical communication is a crucial step towards a better understanding of the functioning of ecological communities facing rapid environmental changes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The success of conifers over much of the world's terrestrial surface is largely attributable to their tolerance to cold stress (i.e.,cold hardiness). Due to an increase in climate variability, climate change may reduce conifer cold hardiness, which in turn could impact ecosystem functioning and productivity in conifer-dominated forests. The expression of cold hardiness is a product of environmental cues (E), genetic differentiation (G), and their interaction (G×E), although few studies have considered all components together. To better understand and manage for the impacts of climate change on conifer cold hardiness, we conducted a common garden experiment replicated in three test environments (cool, moderate, warm) using 35 populations of coast Douglas-fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) to test the hypotheses: 1)cool-temperature cues in fall are necessary to trigger cold hardening, 2)there is large genetic variation among populations in cold hardiness that can be predicted from seed-source climate variables, 3)observed differences among populations in cold hardiness in situ are dependent on effective environmental cues, 4)movement of seed-sources from warmer to cooler climates will increase risk to cold injury. During fall 2012, we visually assessed cold damage of bud, needle and stem tissues following artificial freeze tests. Cool-temperature cues (e.g., degree-hours below 2°C) at the test sites were associated with cold hardening, which were minimal at the moderate test site owing to mild fall temperatures. Populations differed 3-fold in cold hardiness, with winter minimum temperatures and fall frost dates as strong seed-source climate predictors of cold hardiness, and with summer temperatures and aridity as secondary predictors. Seed-source movement resulted in only modest increases in cold damage. Our findings indicate that increased fall temperatures delay cold hardening, warmer/drier summers confer a degree of cold hardiness, and seed-source movement from warmer to cooler climates may be a viable option for adapting coniferous forest to future climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The ongoing changes in vegetation spring phenology in temperate/cold regions are widely attributed to temperature. However, in arid/semiarid ecosystems the correlation between spring temperature and phenology is much less clear. We test the hypothesis that precipitation plays an important role in the temperature dependency of phenology in arid/semi-arid regions. We therefore investigated the influence of preseason precipitation on satellite-derived estimates of starting date of vegetation growing season (SOS) across the Tibetan Plateau (TP). We observed two clear patterns linking precipitation to SOS. First, SOS is more sensitive to inter-annual variations in preseason precipitation in more arid than in wetter areas. Spatially, an increase in long-term averaged preseason precipitation of 10 mm corresponds to a decrease of the precipitation sensitivity of SOS by about 0.01 day mm −1 . Second, SOS is more sensitive to variations in preseason temperature in wetter than in dryer areas of the plateau. A spatial increase in precipitation of 10 mm corresponds to an increase in temperature sensitivity of SOS of 0.25 day °C −1 (0.25-day SOS advance per 1-°C temperature increase). Those two patterns indicate both direct and indirect impacts of precipitation on SOS on TP. This study suggest a balance between maximizing benefit from the limiting climatic resource and minimizing the risk imposed by other factors. In wetter areas, the lower risk of drought allows greater temperature sensitivity of SOS to maximize the thermal benefit, which is further supported by the weaker inter-annual partial correlation between growing degree days and preseason precipitation. In more arid areas, maximizing the benefit of water requires greater sensitivity of SOS to precipitation, with reduced sensitivity to temperature. This study highlights the impacts of precipitation on SOS in a large cold and arid/semiarid region and suggests that influences of water should be included in SOS module of terrestrial ecosystem models for drylands. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In a recent study, Hamann et al . (2015) proposed a new algorithm for computing climatic velocity. The advantage of the new method in comparison to the classical one (Loaire et al ., 2009) was that it could effectively avoid infinite velocity and present scale-invariant property. Here, I showed that this novel method actually was a hybrid of two simple methods in species distribution modeling (SDMs). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Soil microorganisms regulate fundamental biochemical processes in plant litter decomposition and soil organic matter (SOM) transformation. Understanding how microbial communities respond to changes in vegetation is critical for improving predictions of how land cover change affects belowground carbon storage and nutrient availability. We measured intra- and interannual variability in soil and forest litter microbial community composition and activity via phospholipid fatty acid analysis (PLFA) and extracellular enzyme activity across a well-replicated, long-term chronosequence of secondary forests growing on abandoned pastures in the wet subtropical forest life zone of Puerto Rico. Microbial community PLFA structure differed between young, secondary forests and older secondary and primary forests, following successional shifts in tree species composition. These successional patterns held across seasons, but the microbial groups driving these patterns differed over time. Microbial community composition from the forest litter differed greatly from those in the soil, but did not show the same successional trends. Extracellular enzyme activity did not differ with forest succession, but varied by season with greater rates of potential activity in the dry seasons. We found few robust significant relationships among microbial community parameters and soil pH, moisture, carbon and nitrogen concentrations. Observed inter- and intrannual variability in microbial community structure and activity reveal the importance of a multiple, temporal, sampling strategy when investigating microbial community dynamics with land-use change. Successional control over microbial composition with forest recovery suggests strong links between above and belowground communities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: One of the most important contemporary issues for coral reefs, apart from the need to reduce green-house gas emissions, is to understand the vulnerability of reef corals to climate change, and to identify climate-change refugia. We recently used global species distribution models with two predictive variables, photosynthetically available radiation and sea-surface temperature, to identify 12 localities in the Indian and Pacific Oceans that may serve as reef-coral refugia from climate change (Cacciapagalia and van Woesik 2015). The two environmental variables were used as our main predictors because: (i) corals extract most of their metabolic resources from their endosymbionts that photosynthesize, and (ii) symbiotic dysfunction, observed as coral bleaching and subsequent coral mortality, occurs through the interaction between high light (photoinhibition) and high temperature anomalies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Identifying the relative importance of climatic and other environmental controls on the inter-annual variability and trends in global land surface phenology and greenness is challenging. Firstly, quantifications of land surface phenology and greenness dynamics are impaired by differences between satellite datasets and phenology detection methods. Secondly, dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) that can be used to diagnose controls still reveal structural limitations and contrasting sensitivities to environmental drivers. Thus we assessed the performance of a new developed phenology module within the LPJmL (Lund Potsdam Jena managed Lands) DGVM with a comprehensive ensemble of three satellite datasets of vegetation greenness and ten phenology detection methods, thereby thoroughly accounting for observational uncertainties. The improved and tested model allows us quantifying the relative importance of environmental controls on inter-annual variability and trends of land surface phenology and greenness at regional and global scales. We found that start of growing season inter-annual variability and trends are in addition to cold temperature mainly controlled by incoming radiation and water availability in temperate and boreal forests. Warming-induced prolongations of the growing season in high latitudes are dampened by a limited availability of light. For peak greenness, inter-annual variability and trends are dominantly controlled by water availability and land use and land cover change (LULCC) in all regions. Stronger greening trends in boreal forests of Siberia than in North America are associated to a stronger increase in water availability from melting permafrost soils. Our findings emphasize that in addition to cold temperatures, water availability is a co-dominant control for start of growing season and peak greenness trends at the global scale. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Carbon captured by marine organisms helps sequester atmospheric CO 2 , especially in shallow coastal ecosystems, where rates of primary production and burial of organic carbon (OC) from multiple sources are high. However, linkages between the dynamics of OC derived from multiple sources and carbon sequestration are poorly understood. We investigated the origin (terrestrial, phytobenthos derived, and phytoplankton derived) of particulate OC (POC) and dissolved OC (DOC) in the water column and sedimentary OC using elemental, isotopic, and optical signatures in Furen Lagoon, Japan. Based on these data analysis, we explored how OC from multiple sources contributes to sequestration via storage in sediments, water column sequestration, and air–sea CO 2 exchanges, and analyzed how the contributions vary with salinity in a shallow seagrass meadow as well. The relative contribution of terrestrial POC in the water column decreased with increasing salinity, whereas autochthonous POC increased in the salinity range 10–30. Phytoplankton-derived POC dominated the water column POC (65–95%) within this salinity range; however, it was minor in the sediments (3–29%). In contrast, terrestrial and phytobenthos-derived POC were relatively minor contributors in the water column but were major contributors in the sediments (49–78% and 19–36%, respectively), indicating that terrestrial and phytobenthos-derived POC were selectively stored in the sediments. Autochthonous DOC, part of which can contribute to long-term carbon sequestration in the water column, accounted for 〉25% of the total water column DOC pool in the salinity range 15–30. Autochthonous OC production decreased the concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon in the water column and thereby contributed to atmospheric CO 2 uptake, except in the low-salinity zone. Our results indicate that shallow coastal ecosystems function not only as transition zones between land and ocean but also as carbon sequestration filters. They function at different timescales, depending on the salinity, and OC sources.

Description: Future human well-being under climate change depends on the ongoing delivery of food, fibre and wood from the land-based primary sector. The ability to deliver these provisioning services depends on soil-based ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, nutrient and water cycling and storage), yet we lack an in-depth understanding of the likely response of soil-based ecosystem services to climate change. We review the current knowledge on this topic for temperate ecosystems, focusing on mechanisms that are likely to underpin differences in climate change responses between four primary sector systems: cropping, intensive grazing, extensive grazing, and plantation forestry. We then illustrate how our findings can be applied to assess service delivery under climate change in a specific region, using New Zealand as an example system. Differences in the climate-change responses of carbon and nutrient-related services between systems are largely driven by whether they are reliant on externally added or internally cycled nutrients, the extent to which plant communities could influence responses, and variation in vulnerability to erosion. The ability of soils to regulate water under climate change will mostly be driven by changes in rainfall, but can be influenced by different primary sector systems’ vulnerability to soil water repellency and differences in evapotranspiration rates. These changes in regulating services resulted in different potentials for increased biomass production across systems, with intensively managed systems being the most likely to benefit from climate change. Quantitative prediction of net effects of climate change on soil ecosystem services remains a challenge, in part due to knowledge gaps, but also due to the complex interactions between different aspects of climate change. Despite this challenge, it is critical to gain the information required to make such predictions as robust as possible given the fundamental role of soils in supporting human well-being. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Several studies have shown that satellite retrievals of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provide useful information on terrestrial photosynthesis or gross primary production (GPP). Here, we have incorporated equations coupling SIF to photosynthesis in a land surface model, the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model version 4 (NCAR CLM4) and have demonstrated its use as a diagnostic tool for evaluating the calculation of photosynthesis, a key process in a land surface model that strongly influences the carbon, water, and energy cycles. By comparing forward simulations of SIF, essentially as a byproduct of photosynthesis, in CLM4 with observations of actual SIF, it is possible to check whether the model is accurately representing photosynthesis and the processes coupled to it. We provide some background on how SIF is coupled to photosynthesis, describe how SIF was incorporated into CLM4, and demonstrate that our simulated relationship between SIF and GPP values are reasonable when compared with satellite (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite; GOSAT) and in situ flux-tower measurements. CLM4 overestimates SIF in tropical forests, and we show that this error can be corrected by adjusting the maximum carboxylation rate (V max ) specified for tropical forests in CLM4. Our study confirms that SIF has the potential to improve photosynthesis simulation and thereby can play a critical role in improving land surface and carbon cycle models. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecosystem water-use efficiency (EWUE) is an indicator of carbon-water interactions and is defined as the ratio of carbon assimilation (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET). Previous research suggests an increasing long-term trend in annual EWUE over many regions, and is largely attributed to the physiological effects of rising CO 2 . The seasonal trends in EWUE, however, have not yet been analyzed. In this study, we investigate seasonal EWUE trends and responses to various drivers during 1982-2008. The seasonal cycle for two variants of EWUE, water-use efficiency (WUE, GPP/ET) and transpiration-based WUE (WUE t , the ratio of GPP and transpiration), is analyzed from 0.5° gridded fields from four process-based models and satellite-based products, as well as a network of 63 local flux tower observations. WUE derived from flux tower observations shows moderate seasonal variation for most latitude bands, which is in agreement with satellite-based products. In contrast, the seasonal EWUE trends are not well captured by the same satellite-based products. Trend analysis, based on process-model factorial simulations separating effects of climate, CO 2 and nitrogen deposition (NDEP), further suggests that the seasonal EWUE trends are mainly associated with seasonal trends of climate, whereas CO 2 and NDEP do not show obvious seasonal difference in EWUE trends. About 66% grid cells show positive annual WUE trends, mainly over mid- and high northern latitudes. In these regions, spring climate change has amplified the effect of CO 2 in increasing WUE by more than 0.005 gC m −2 mm −1 yr −1 for 41% pixels. Multiple regression analysis further shows that the increase in springtime WUE in the northern hemisphere is the result of GPP increasing faster than ET because of the higher temperature sensitivity of GPP relative to ET. The partitioning of annual EWUE to seasonal components provides new insight into the relative sensitivities of GPP and ET to climate, CO 2 and NDEP. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Species’ ranges are complex often exhibiting multidirectional shifts over space and time. Despite the strong fingerprint of recent historical climate change on species’ distributions, biotic factors such as loss of vegetative habitat and the presence of potential competitors constitute important yet often overlooked drivers of range dynamics. Furthermore, short-term changes in environmental conditions can influence the underlying processes of local extinction and local colonization that drive range shifts, yet are rarely considered at broad scales. We used dynamic state-space occupancy models to test multiple hypotheses of the relative importance of major drivers of range shifts of Golden-winged Warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) and Blue-winged Warblers ( V. cyanoptera ) between 1983 and 2012 across North America: warming temperatures; habitat changes; and occurrence of congeneric species, used here as proxy for biotic interactions. Dynamic occupancies for both species were most influenced by spatial relative to temporal variation in temperature and habitat. However, temporal variation in temperature anomalies and biotic interactions remained important. The two biotic factors considered, habitat change and biotic interactions, had the largest relative effect on estimated extinction rates followed by abiotic temperature anomalies. For the Golden-winged Warbler, the predicted presence of the Blue-winged Warbler, a hypothesized competitor, most influenced extinction probabilities, contributing to evidence supporting its role in site-level species replacement. Given the overall importance of biotic factors on range-wide dynamic occupancies, their consideration alongside abiotic factors should not be overlooked. Our results suggest that warming compounds the negative effect of habitat loss emphasizing species’ need for habitat to adapt to a changing climate. Notably, even closely related species exhibited individual responses to abiotic and biotic factors considered.

Description: Isoprene emission is an important mechanism for improving the thermotolerance of plant photosystems as temperatures increase. In this study, we measured photosynthesis and isoprene emission in trees along an urban-rural gradient that serves as a proxy for climate change, to understand daily and seasonal responses to changes in temperature and other environmental variables. Leaf-level gas exchange and basal isoprene emission of post oak (Quercus stellata ) and sweetgum ( Liquidambar styraciflua ) were recorded at regular intervals over an entire growing season at urban, suburban, and rural sites in eastern Texas. In addition, the temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration experienced by leaves were experimentally manipulated in spring, early summer, and late summer. We found that trees experienced lower stomatal conductance and photosynthesis, and higher isoprene emission, at the urban and suburban sites compared to the rural site. Path analysis indicated a daily positive effect of isoprene emission on photosynthesis, but unexpectedly, higher isoprene emission from urban trees was not associated with improved photosynthesis as temperatures increased during the growing season. Furthermore, urban trees experienced relatively higher isoprene emission at high CO 2 concentrations while isoprene emission was suppressed at the other sites. These results suggest that isoprene emission may be less beneficial in urban, and potentially future, environmental conditions, particularly if higher temperatures override the suppressive effects of high CO 2 on isoprene emission. These are important considerations for modeling future biosphere-atmosphere interactions and for understanding tree physiological responses to climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub-Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro-arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar ( Epirrita autumnata ). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme winter warming events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an extreme winter warming event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing while those that were not exposed to warming events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or winter warming events. Micro-arthropods declined (46%) following winter warming but did not respond to changes in plant community. Extreme winter warming and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO 2 fluxes of the ecosystem. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Global increases in the occurrence of large, severe wildfires in forested watersheds threaten drinking water supplies and aquatic ecology. Wildfire effects on water quality, particularly nutrient levels and forms, can be significant. The longevity and downstream propagation of these effects, as well as the geochemical mechanisms regulating them remain largely undocumented at larger river basin scales. Here, phosphorus (P) speciation and sorption behavior of suspended sediment were examined in two river basins impacted by a severe wildfire in southern Alberta, Canada. Fine grained suspended sediments (〈125 μm) were sampled continuously during ice-free conditions over a two year period (2009-2010), 6 and 7 years after the wildfire. Suspended sediment samples were collected from upstream reference (unburned) river reaches, multiple tributaries within the burned areas, and from reaches downstream of the burned areas, in the Crowsnest and Castle River basins. Total particulate phosphorus [TPP], particulate phosphorus [PP] forms (non-apatite inorganic P [NAIP], apatite P [AP], organic P [OP]), and the equilibrium phosphorus concentration (EPC 0 ) of suspended sediment were assessed. Concentrations of TPP and the EPC 0 were significantly higher downstream of wildfire-impacted areas compared to reference (unburned) upstream river reaches. Sediments from the burned tributary inputs contained higher levels of bioavailable particulate P (NAIP)—these effects were also observed downstream at larger river basin scales. The release of bioavailable P from post-fire, P-enriched fine sediment is a key mechanism causing these effects in gravel-bed rivers at larger basin scales. Wildfire-associated increases in NAIP and the EPC 0 persisted 6 and 7 years after wildfire. Accordingly, this work demonstrated that fine sediment in gravel-bed rivers is a significant, long-term source of in-stream bioavailable P that contributes to a legacy of wildfire impacts on downstream water quality, aquatic ecology, and drinking water treatability. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Regenerating forests influence the global carbon (C) cycle, and understanding how climate change will affect patterns of regeneration and C storage is necessary to predict the rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) increase in future decades. While experimental elevation of CO2 has revealed that young forests respond with increased productivity, there remains considerable uncertainty as to how the long-term dynamics of forest regrowth are shaped by elevated CO2 (eCO2). Here, we use the mechanistic size- and age- structured Ecosystem Demography model to investigate the effects of CO2 enrichment on forest regeneration, using data from the Duke Forest Free-Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) experiment, a forest chronosequence, and an eddycovariance tower for model parameterization and evaluation. We find that the dynamics of forest regeneration are accelerated, and stands consistently hit a variety of developmental benchmarks earlier under eCO2. Because responses to eCO2 varied by plant functional type, successional pathways and mature forest composition differed under eCO2, with mid- and late- successional hardwood functional types experiencing greater increases in biomass compared to early-successional functional types and the pine canopy. Over the simulation period, eCO2 led to an increase in total ecosystem C storage of 9.7 Mg C ha −1 . Model predictions of mature forest biomass and ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of CO2 and H2O were sensitive to assumptions about nitrogen limitation; both the magnitude and persistence of the ecosystem response to eCO2 were reduced under N limitation. In summary, our simulations demonstrate that eCO2 can result in a general acceleration of forest regeneration while altering the course of successional change and having a lasting impact on forest ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo-data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech ( Fagus sylvatica ) and spruce ( Picea abies ) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 20,000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21 st century multi-model ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba , with the model exceeding the present distribution in Northwestern and Southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for Southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in Southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the northeast in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in Southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in Central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Central Europe. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The Arctic is particularly sensitive to climate change, but the independent effects of increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration ( p CO 2 ) and temperature on high-latitude forests is poorly understood. Here, we present a new, annually resolved record of stable carbon isotope ( δ 13 C) data determined from Larix cajanderi tree cores collected from far northeastern Siberia in order to investigate the physiological response of these trees to regional warming. The tree-ring record, which extends from 1912 through 1961 (50 years), targets Early Twentieth Century Warming (ETCW), a natural warming event in the 1920s to 1940s that was limited to northern hemisphere high-latitudes. Our data show that net carbon isotope fractionation (Δ 13 C), decreased by 1.7‰ across the ETCW, which is consistent with increased water stress in response to climate warming and dryer soils. In order to investigate whether this signal is present across the northern boreal forest, we compiled published carbon isotope data from 14 high-latitude sites within Europe, Asia, and North America. The resulting dataset covered the entire twentieth century and spanned both natural ETCW and anthropogenic Late Twentieth Century Warming (LTCW) (~0.7 °C/decade). After correcting for a ~1‰ increase in Δ 13 C in response to twentieth century p CO 2 rise, a significant negative relationship (r=-0.53, p〈0.0001) between the average, annual Δ 13 C values and regional annual temperature anomalies is observed, suggesting a strong control of temperature on the Δ 13 C value of trees growing at high-latitudes. We calculate a 17% increase in intrinsic water-use efficiency within these forests across the twentieth century, of which approximately half is attributed to a decrease in stomatal conductance in order to conserve water in response to drying conditions, with the other half being attributed to increasing p CO 2 . We conclude that annual tree-ring records from northern high-latitude forests record the effects of climate warming and p CO 2 rise across the twentieth century. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Winter climate change may result in reduced snow cover and could, consequently, alter the soil frost regime and biogeochemical processes underlying the exchange of methane (CH 4 ) in boreal peatlands. In this study, we investigated the short-term (1-3 years) versus long-term (11 years) effects of intensified winter soil frost (induced by experimental snow exclusion) on CH 4 exchange during the following growing season in a boreal peatland. In the first 3 years (2004-2006), lower CH 4 emissions in the treatment plots relative to the control coincided with delayed soil temperature increase in the treatment plots at the beginning of the growing season (May). After 11 treatment years (in 2014), CH 4 emissions were lower in the treatment plots relative to the control over the entire growing season, resulting in a reduction of total growing season CH 4 emission by 27%. From May to July 2014, reduced sedge leaf area coincided with lower CH 4 emissions in the treatment plots compared to the control. From July to August, lower dissolved organic carbon concentrations in the pore-water of the treatment plots explained 72% of the differences in CH 4 emission between control and treatment. In addition, greater Sphagnum moss growth in the treatment plots resulted in a larger distance between the moss surface and the water table (i.e. increasing the oxic layer) which may have enhanced the CH 4 oxidation potential in the treatment plots relative to the control in 2014. The differences in vegetation might also explain the lower temperature sensitivity of CH 4 emission observed in the treatment plots relative to the control. Overall, this study suggests that greater soil frost, associated with future winter climate change, might substantially reduce the growing season CH 4 emission in boreal peatlands through altering vegetation dynamics and subsequently causing vegetation-mediated effects on CH 4 exchange. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Many taxa are undergoing distribution shifts in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, detecting a climate signal in mobile species is difficult due to their wide-ranging, patchy distributions, often driven by natural climate variability. For example, difficulties associated with assessing pelagic fish distributions has rendered fisheries management ill-equipped to adapt to the challenges posed by climate change, leaving pelagic species and ecosystems vulnerable. Here we demonstrate the value of citizen science data for modelling the dynamic habitat suitability of a mobile pelagic predator (black marlin, Istiopmax indica ) within the south-west Pacific Ocean. The extensive spatial and temporal coverage of our occurrence data set (n=18717), collected at high resolution (~1.85km 2 ), enabled identification of suitable habitat at monthly time-steps over a 16-year period (1998-2013). We identified considerable monthly, seasonal and inter-annual variability in the extent and distribution of suitable habitat, predominately driven by chlorophyll-a and sea surface height. Inter-annual variability correlated with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, with suitable habitat extending up to ~300 km further south during La Nina events. Despite the strong influence of ENSO, our model revealed a rapid poleward shift in the geometric mean of black marlin habitat, occurring at 88.2 km decade −1 . By incorporating multiple environmental factors at monthly time-steps, we were able to demonstrate a rapid distribution shift in a mobile pelagic species. Our findings suggest that the rapid velocity of climate change in the south-west Pacific Ocean is likely affecting mobile pelagic species, indicating that they may be more vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Choosing drought-tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought, and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long-term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio-temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q 0 , adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan-European spatio-temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q 0 simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within-host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q 0 simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2-3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary control strategies, and potentially drive local adaptation to climate change in parasite populations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Grazing exclusion (GE) is considered to be an effective approach to restore degraded grasslands and to improve their carbon (C) sequestration. However, the C dynamics and related controlling factors in grasslands with GE have not been well characterized. This synthesis examines the dynamics of soil C content and vegetation biomass with the recovery age through synthesizing results of 51 sites in grasslands in China. The results illustrate increases in soil C content and vegetation biomass with GE at most sites. Generally, both soil C content and vegetation biomass arrive at steady state after 15 years of GE. In comparison, the rates of increase in above- and below-ground biomass declined exponentially with the age of GE, whereas soil C content declined in a milder (linear) way, implying a lagged response of soil C to the inputs from plant biomass. Mean annual precipitation (MAP) and the rate of soil nitrogen (N) change were the main factors affecting the rate of soil C content change. MAP played a major role at the early stage, whereas the rate of soil N change was the major contributor at the middle and late stages. Our results imply that the national grassland restoration projects in China may be more beneficial for C sequestration in humid regions with high MAP. In addition, increased soil N supply to grasslands with GE at the latter recovery stage may enhance ecosystem C sequestration capacity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate change is expected to favour infectious diseases across ecosystems worldwide. In freshwater and marine environments, parasites play a crucial role in controlling plankton population dynamics. Infection of phytoplankton populations will cause a transfer of carbon and nutrients into parasites, which may change the type of food available for higher trophic levels. Some phytoplankton species are inedible to zooplankton, and the termination of their population by parasites may liberate otherwise unavailable carbon and nutrients. Phytoplankton spring blooms often consist of large diatoms inedible for zooplankton, but the zoospores of their fungal parasites may serve as a food source for this higher trophic level. Here, we investigated the impact of warming on the fungal infection of a natural phytoplankton spring bloom and followed the response of a zooplankton community. Experiments were performed in ca. 1000 L indoor mesocosms exposed to a controlled seasonal temperature cycle and a warm (+4 °C) treatment in the period from March to June 2014. The spring bloom was dominated by the diatom Synedra . At the peak of infection over 40% of the Synedra population was infected by a fungal parasite (i.e. a chytrid) in both treatments. Warming did not affect the onset of the Synedra bloom, but accelerated its termination. Peak population density of Synedra tended to be lower in the warm treatments. Furthermore, Synedra carbon: phosphorus stoichiometry increased during the bloom, particularly in the control treatments. This indicates enhanced phosphorus limitation in the control treatments, which may have constrained chytrid development. Timing of the rotifer Keratella advanced in the warm treatments and closely followed chytrid infections. The chytrids' zoospores may thus have served as an alternative food source to Keratella . Our study thus emphasizes the importance of incorporating not only nutrient limitation and grazing, but also parasitism in understanding the response of plankton communities towards global warming.

Description: Tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) produces harmful effects to forests and crops, leading to a reduction of land carbon assimilation that, consequently, influences the land sink and the crop yield production. To assess the potential negative O 3 impacts to vegetation, the European Union uses the Accumulated Ozone over Threshold of 40 ppb (AOT40). This index has been chosen for its simplicity and flexibility in handling different ecosystems as well as for its linear relationships with yield or biomass loss. However, AOT40 does not give any information on the physiological O 3 uptake into the leaves since it does not include any environmental constraints to O 3 uptake through stomata. Therefore, an index based on stomatal O 3 uptake (i.e. PODY), which describes the amount of O 3 entering into the leaves, would be more appropriate. Specifically, the PODY metric considers the effects of multiple climatic factors, vegetation characteristics and local and phenological inputs rather than the only atmospheric O 3 concentration. For this reason, the use of PODY in the O 3 risk assessment for vegetation is becoming recommended. We compare different potential O 3 risk assessments based on two methodologies (i.e. AOT40 and stomatal O 3 uptake) using a framework of mesoscale models that produces hourly meteorological and O 3 data at high spatial resolution (12 km) over Europe for the time period 2000-2005. Results indicate a remarkable spatial and temporal inconsistency between the two indices, suggesting that a new definition of European legislative standard is needed in the near future. Besides, our risk assessment based on AOT40 shows a good consistency compared to both in-situ data and other model-based datasets. Conversely, risk assessment based on stomatal O 3 uptake shows different spatial patterns compared to other model-based datasets. This strong inconsistency can be likely related to a different vegetation cover and its associated parameterizations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) versus density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Large-scale monitoring of crop growth and yield has important value for forecasting food production and prices and ensuring regional food security. A newly emerging satellite retrieval, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) of chlorophyll, provides for the first time a direct measurement related to plant photosynthetic activity ( i.e . electron transport rate). Here, we provide a framework to link SIF retrievals and crop yield, accounting for stoichiometry, photosynthetic pathways, and respiration losses. We apply this framework to estimate United States crop productivity for 2007-2012, where we use the spaceborne SIF retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) satellite, benchmarked with county-level crop yield statistics, and compare it with various traditional crop monitoring approaches. We find that a SIF-based approach accounting for photosynthetic pathways (i.e. C 3 and C 4 crops) provides the best measure of crop productivity among these approaches, despite the fact that SIF sensors are not yet optimized for terrestrial applications. We further show that SIF provides the ability to infer the impacts of environmental stresses on autotrophic respiration and carbon-use-efficiency, with a substantial sensitivity of both to high temperatures. These results indicate new opportunities for improved mechanistic understanding of crop yield responses to climate variability and change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Soil microbial biomass is a key determinant of carbon dynamics in the soil. Several studies have shown that soil microbial biomass significantly increases with plant species diversity, but it remains unclear if plant species diversity can also stabilize soil microbial biomass in a changing environment. This question is particularly relevant as many global environmental change (GEC) factors, such as drought and nutrient enrichment, have been shown to reduce soil microbial biomass. Experiments with orthogonal manipulations of plant diversity and GEC factors can provide insights whether plant diversity can attenuate such detrimental effects on soil microbial biomass. Here, we present the analysis of 12 different studies with 14 unique orthogonal plant diversity × GEC manipulations in grasslands, where plant diversity and at least one GEC factor (elevated CO 2 , nutrient enrichment, drought, earthworm presence, or warming) were manipulated. Our results show that higher plant diversity significantly enhances soil microbial biomass with the strongest effects in long-term field experiments. In contrast, GEC factors had inconsistent effects with only drought having a significant negative effect. Importantly, we report consistent non-significant effects for all 14 interactions between plant diversity and GEC factors, which indicates a limited potential of plant diversity to attenuate the effects of GEC factors on soil microbial biomass. We highlight that plant diversity is a major determinant of soil microbial biomass in experimental grasslands that can influence soil carbon dynamics irrespective of GEC. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration ([CO 2 ]) and attendant increases in growing season temperature are expected be the most important global change factors impacting production agriculture. Although maize is the most highly produced crop worldwide, few studies have evaluated the interactive effects of elevated [CO 2 ] and temperature on its photosynthetic physiology, agronomic traits or biomass and seed yield under open field conditions. This study investigates the effects of rising [CO 2 ] and warmer temperature, independently and in combination, on maize grown in the field throughout a full growing season. Free Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) technology was used to target atmospheric [CO 2 ] to 200 μmol mol -1 above ambient [CO 2 ] and infrared heaters to target a plant canopy increase of 3.5°C, with actual season-mean heating of ~2.7°C, mimicking conditions predicted by the second half of this century. Photosynthetic gas exchange parameters, leaf nitrogen and carbon content, leaf water potential components, and developmental measurements were collected throughout the season and biomass and yield were measured at the end of the growing season. As predicted for a C 4 plant, elevated [CO 2 ] did not stimulate photosynthesis, biomass or yield. Canopy warming caused a large shift in above ground allocation by stimulating season long vegetative biomass and decreasing reproductive biomass accumulation at both CO 2 concentrations, resulting in decreased harvest index. Warming caused a reduction in photosynthesis due to down-regulation of photosynthetic biochemical parameters and the decrease in the electron transport rate. The reduction in seed yield with warming was driven by reduced photosynthetic capacity and by a shift in above-ground carbon allocation away from reproduction. This field study portends that future warming will reduce yield in maize and this will not be mitigated by higher atmospheric [CO 2 ] unless appropriate adaptation traits can be introduced into future cultivars. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: It is widely accepted that global warming will adversely affect ecological communities. As ecosystems are simultaneously exposed to other anthropogenic influences, it is important to address the effects of climate change in the context of many stressors. Nutrient enrichment might offset some of the energy demands that warming can exert on organisms by stimulating growth at the base of the food web. It is important to know whether indirect effects of warming will be as ecologically significant as direct physiological effects. Declining body size is increasingly viewed as a universal response to warming, with the potential to alter trophic interactions. To address these issues, we used an outdoor array of marine mesocosms to examine the impacts of warming, nutrient enrichment, and altered top predator body size on a community comprised of the predator (shore crab Carcinus maenas ), various grazing detritivores (amphipods) and algal resources. Warming increased mortality rates of crabs, but had no effect on their moulting rates. Nutrient enrichment and warming had near diametrically-opposed effects on the assemblage, confirming that the ecological effects of these two stressors can cancel each other out. This suggests that nutrient enriched systems might act as an energy refuge to populations of species under metabolic constraints due to warming. While there was a strong difference in assemblages between mesocosms containing crabs compared to mesocosms without crabs, decreasing crab size had no detectable effect on the amphipod or algal assemblages. This suggests that in allometrically balanced communities the expected long-term effect of warming (declining body size) is not of similar ecological consequence to the direct physiological effects of warming, at least not over the six week duration of the experiment described here. More research is needed to determine the long-term effects of declining body size on the bioenergetic balance of natural communities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Competition for land is increasing and policy needs to ensure the efficient supply of multiple ecosystem services from land systems. We modeled the spatially-explicit potential future supply of ecosystem services in Australia's intensive agricultural land in response to carbon markets under four global outlooks from 2013 – 2050. We assessed the productive efficiency of greenhouse gas emissions abatement, agricultural production, water resources, and biodiversity services and compared these to production possibility frontiers (PPFs). While interacting commodity markets and carbon markets produced efficient outcomes for agricultural production and emissions abatement, more efficient outcomes were possible for water resources and biodiversity services due to weak price signals. However, when only two objectives were considered as per typical efficiency assessments, efficiency improvements involved significant unintended trade-offs for the other objectives, and incurred substantial opportunity costs. Considering multiple objectives simultaneously enabled the identification of land use arrangements that were efficient over multiple ecosystem services. Efficient land use arrangements could be selected that meet society's preferences for ecosystem service provision from land by adjusting the metric used to combine multiple services. To effectively manage competition for land via land use efficiency, market incentives are needed that effectively price multiple ecosystem services. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in sorghum and wheat systems of Northeast Australia. We also modify APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to incorporate extreme heat effects on grain number and weight, and then evaluate changes in the occurrence of heat-induced yield losses of more than 10%, as well as the co-occurrence of drought and heat. More than six million simulations spanning representative locations, soil types, management systems, and 33 climate projections led to three key findings. First, the projected frequency of drought decreased slightly for most climate projections for both sorghum and wheat, but for different reasons. In sorghum, warming exacerbated drought stresses by raising the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and reducing transpiration efficiency (TE), but an increase in TE due to elevated CO 2 more than offset these effects. In wheat, warming reduced drought stress during spring by hastening development through winter and reducing exposure to terminal drought. Elevated CO 2 increased TE but also raised radiation use efficiency and overall growth rates and water use, thereby offsetting much of the drought reduction from warming. Second, adding explicit effects of heat on grain number and grain size often switched projected yield impacts from positive to negative. Finally, although average yield losses associated with drought will remain generally higher than for heat stress for the next half century, the relative importance of heat is steadily growing. This trend, as well as the likely high degree of genetic variability in heat tolerance, suggests that more emphasis on heat tolerance is warranted in breeding programs. At the same time, work on drought tolerance should continue with an emphasis on drought that co-occurs with extreme heat. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Soil carbon in permafrost ecosystems has the potential to become a major positive feedback to climate change if permafrost thaw increases heterotrophic decomposition. However, warming can also stimulate autotrophic production leading to increased ecosystem carbon storage—a negative climate change feedback. Few studies partitioning ecosystem respiration examine decadal warming effects or compare responses among ecosystems. Here, we first examined how 11 years of warming during different seasons affected autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration in a bryophyte-dominated peatland in Abisko, Sweden. We used natural abundance radiocarbon to partition ecosystem respiration into autotrophic respiration, associated with production, and heterotrophic decomposition. Summertime warming decreased the age of carbon respired by the ecosystem due to increased proportional contributions from autotrophic and young soil respiration and decreased proportional contributions from old soil. Summertime warming's large effect was due to not only warmer air temperatures during the growing season, but also to warmer deep soils year round. Second, we compared ecosystem respiration responses between two contrasting ecosystems, the Abisko peatland and a tussock-dominated tundra in Healy, Alaska. Each ecosystem had two different timescales of warming (〈5 years and over a decade). Despite the Abisko peatland having greater ecosystem respiration and larger contributions from heterotrophic respiration than the Healy tundra, both systems responded consistently to short and long term warming with increased respiration, increased autotrophic contributions to ecosystem respiration, and increased ratios of autotrophic to heterotrophic respiration. We did not detect an increase in old soil carbon losses with warming at either site. If increased autotrophic respiration is balanced by increased primary production, as is the case in the Healy tundra, warming will not cause these ecosystems to become growing season carbon sources. Warming instead causes a persistent shift from heterotrophic to more autotrophic control of the growing season carbon cycle in these carbon-rich permafrost ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate warming is strongly altering the timing of season initiation and season length in the Arctic. Phenological activities are among the most sensitive plant responses to climate change and have important effects at all levels within the ecosystem. We tested the effects of two experimental treatments, extended growing season via snow removal and extended growing season combined with soil warming, on plant phenology in tussock tundra in Alaska from 1995 through 2003. We specifically monitored the responses of eight species, representing four growth forms: 1) graminoids ( Carex bigellowii and Eriophorum vaginatum ); 2) evergreen shrubs ( Ledum palustre , Cassiope tetragona , and Vaccinium vitis-idaea ); 3) deciduous shrubs ( Betula nana and Salix pulchra ); and 4) forbs ( Polygonum bistorta ). Our study answered three questions: 1) Do experimental treatments affect the timing of leaf bud break, flowering, and leaf senescence?; 2) Are responses to treatments species-specific and growth form-specific?; and 3) Which environmental factors best predict timing of phenophases? Treatment significantly affected the timing of all three phenophases, although the two experimental treatments did not differ from each other. While phenological events began earlier in the experimental plots relative to the controls, duration of phenophases did not increase. The evergreen shrub, Cassiope tetragona , did not respond to either experimental treatment. While the other species did respond to experimental treatments, the total active period for these species did not increase relative to the control. Air temperature was consistently the best predictor of phenology. Our results imply that some evergreen shrubs (i.e. C. tetragona ) will not capitalize on earlier favorable growing conditions, putting them at a competitive disadvantage relative to phenotypically plastic deciduous shrubs. Our findings also suggest that an early onset of the growing season as result of decreased snow cover will not necessarily result in greater tundra productivity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change. In part, this is because it is unclear how heterogeneity in soils affects plant responses to climate. Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables. Our analyses focused on long-term (20 to 56 years) perennial grass dynamics across the Colorado Plateau, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan Desert regions. Our results suggest that climate variability has negative effects on grass cover, and that precipitation subsidies that extend growing seasons are beneficial. Soil water metrics, including the number of dry days and availability of water from deeper (〉30 cm) soil layers, explained additional grass cover variability. While individual climate variables were ranked as more important in explaining grass cover, collectively soil water accounted for 40 to 60% of the total explained variance. Soil water conditions were more useful for understanding the responses of C 3 than C 4 grass species. Projections of water balance variables under climate change indicate that conditions that currently support perennial grasses will be less common in the future, and these altered conditions will be more pronounced in the Chihuahuan Desert and Colorado Plateau. We conclude that incorporating multiple aspects of climate and accounting for soil variability can improve our ability to understand patterns, identify areas of vulnerability, and predict the future of desert grasslands. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Bet hedging at reproduction is expected to evolve when mothers are exposed to unpredictable cues for future environmental conditions, whereas transgenerational plasticity (TGP) should be favoured when cues reliably predict the environment offspring will experience. Since climate predictions forecast an increase in both temperature and climate variability, both TGP and bet hedging are likely to become important strategies to mediate climate change effects. Here, the potential to produce variably sized offspring in both warming and unpredictable environments was tested by investigating whether stickleback ( Gasterosteus aculeatus ) mothers adjusted mean offspring size and within-clutch variation in offspring size in response to experimental manipulation of maternal thermal environment and predictability (alternating between ambient and elevated water temperatures). Reproductive output traits of F1 females were influenced by both temperature and environmental predictability. Mothers that developed at ambient temperature (17°C) produced larger, but fewer eggs than mothers that developed at elevated temperature (21°C), implying selection for different-sized offspring in different environments. Mothers in unpredictable environments had smaller mean egg sizes and tended to have greater within-female egg size variability, especially at 21°C, suggesting that mothers may have dynamically modified the variance in offspring size to spread the risk of incorrectly predicting future environmental conditions. Both TGP and diversification influenced F2 offspring body size. F2 offspring reared at 21°C had larger mean body sizes if their mother developed at 21°C, but this TGP benefit was not present for offspring of 17°C mothers reared at 17°C, indicating that maternal TGP will be highly relevant for ocean warming scenarios in this system. Offspring of variable environment mothers were smaller but more variable in size than offspring from constant environment mothers, particularly at 21°C. In summary, stickleback mothers may have used both TGP and diversified bet-hedging strategies to cope with the dual stress of ocean warming and environmental uncertainty. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Considerable amounts and varieties of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) are exchanged between vegetation and the surrounding air. These BVOCs play key ecological and atmospheric roles that must be adequately represented for accurately modeling the coupled biosphere-atmosphere-climate Earth system. One key uncertainty in existing models is the response of BVOC fluxes to an important global change process: drought. We describe the diurnal and seasonal variation in isoprene, monoterpene and methanol fluxes from a temperate forest ecosystem before, during, and after an extreme 2012 drought event in the Ozark region of the central USA. BVOC fluxes were dominated by isoprene, which attained high emission rates of up to 35.4 mg m -2 h -1 at midday. Methanol fluxes were characterized by net deposition in the morning, changing to a net emission flux through the rest of the daylight hours. Net flux of CO 2 reached its seasonal maximum approximately a month earlier than isoprenoid fluxes, which highlights the differential response of photosynthesis and isoprenoid emissions to progressing drought conditions. Nevertheless, both processes were strongly suppressed under extreme drought, although isoprene fluxes remained relatively high compared to reported fluxes from other ecosystems. Methanol exchange was less affected by drought throughout the season, confirming the complex processes driving biogenic methanol fluxes. The fraction of daytime (7-17 h) assimilated carbon released back to the atmosphere combining the three BVOCs measured was 2 % of gross primary productivity (GPP) and 4.9 % of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) on average for our whole measurement campaign, while exceeding 5 % of GPP and 10 % of NEE just before the strongest drought phase. The MEGANv2.1 model correctly predicted diurnal variations in fluxes driven mainly by light and temperature, although further research is needed to address model BVOC fluxes during drought events. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Natural forests in South-East Asia have been extensively converted into other land-use systems in the past decades and still show high deforestation rates. Historically, lowland forests have been converted into rubber forests, but more recently the dominant conversion is into oil palm plantations. While it is expected that large-scale conversion has strong effects on the carbon cycle, detailed studies quantifying carbon pools and total net primary production (NPPt) in above- and belowground tree biomass in land-use systems replacing rainforest (incl. oil palm plantations) are rare so far. We measured above- and belowground carbon pools in tree biomass together with NPPt in natural old-growth forests, ‘jungle rubber’ agroforests under natural tree cover, and rubber and oil palm monocultures in Sumatra. In total, 32 stands (8 plot replicates per land-use system) were studied in two different regions. Total tree biomass in the natural forest (mean: 384 Mg ha -1 ) was more than two times higher than in jungle rubber stands (147 Mg ha -1 ) and 〉four times higher than in monoculture rubber and oil palm plantations (78 and 50 Mg ha -1 ). NPPt was higher in the natural forest (24 Mg ha -1 yr -1 ) than in the rubber systems (20 and 15 Mg ha -1 yr -1 ), but was highest in the oil palm system (33 Mg ha -1 yr -1 ) due to very high fruit production (15-20 Mg ha -1 yr -1 ). NPPt was dominated in all systems by aboveground production, but belowground productivity was significantly higher in the natural forest and jungle rubber than in plantations. We conclude that conversion of natural lowland forest into different agricultural systems leads to a strong reduction not only in the biomass carbon pool (up to 166 Mg C ha -1 ) but also in carbon sequestration as carbon residence time (i.e. biomass:NPP) was 3-10 times higher in the natural forest than in rubber and oil palm plantations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Perhaps the most pressing issue in predicting biotic responses to present and future global change is understanding how environmental factors shape the relationship between ecological traits and extinction risk. The fossil record provides millions of years of insight into how extinction selectivity (i.e., differential extinction risk) is shaped by interactions between ecological traits and environmental conditions. Numerous paleontological studies have examined trait-based extinction selectivity; however, the extent to which these patterns are shaped by environmental conditions is poorly understood due to a lack of quantitative synthesis across studies. We conducted a meta-analysis of published studies on fossil marine bivalves and gastropods that span 458 million years to uncover how global environmental and geochemical changes covary with trait-based extinction selectivity. We focused on geographic range size and life habit (i.e., infaunal vs. epifaunal), two of the most important and commonly examined predictors of extinction selectivity. We used geochemical proxies related to global climate, as well as indicators of ocean acidification, to infer average global environmental conditions. Life-habit selectivity is weakly dependent on environmental conditions, with infaunal species relatively buffered from extinction during warmer climate states. In contrast, the odds of taxa with broad geographic ranges surviving an extinction (〉2500 km for genera, 〉500 km for species) are on average three times greater than narrow-ranging taxa (estimate of odds ratio: 2.8, 95% confidence interval = 2.3–3.5), regardless of the prevailing global environmental conditions. The environmental independence of geographic range size extinction selectivity emphasizes the critical role of geographic range size in setting conservation priorities.

Description: Tropical peatlands are among the most space-efficient stores of carbon on Earth containing approximately 89 Gt C. Of this, 57 Gt (65%) are stored in Indonesian peatlands. Large-scale exploitation of land, including deforestation and drainage for the establishment of oil palm plantations, is changing the carbon balance of Indonesian peatlands, turning them from a natural sink to a source via outgassing of CO 2 to the atmosphere and leakage of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) into the coastal ocean. The impacts of this perturbation to the coastal environment and at the global scale are largely unknown. Here we evaluate the downstream effects of released Indonesian peat carbon on coastal ecosystems and on the global carbon cycle. We use a biogeochemical box model in combination with novel and literature observations to investigate the impact of different carbon emission scenarios on the combined ocean-atmosphere system. The release of all carbon stored in the Indonesian peat pool, considered as a worst-case scenario, will increase atmospheric pCO 2 by 8ppm to 15ppm within the next 200 years. The expected impact on the Java Sea ecosystems is most significant on the short-term (over a few hundred years) and is characterized by an increase of 3.3% phytoplankton, 32% seagrass biomass, and 5% decrease in coral biomass. On the long-term, however, the coastal ecosystems will recover to reach near pre-excursion conditions. Our results suggest that the ultimate fate of the peat carbon is in the deep ocean with 69% of it landing in the deep DIC pool after 1,000 years, but the effects on the global ocean carbonate chemistry will be marginal. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.