ALBERT

Description: Extending periodic eddy covariance latent heat fluxes through tree sapflow measurements to estimate long-term total evaporation in a peat swamp forest Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 13607-13661, 2014 Author(s): A. D. Clulow, C. S. Everson, M. G. Mengistu, J. S. Price, A. Nickless, and G. P. W. Jewitt A combination of measurement and modelling was used to find a pragmatic solution to estimate the annual total evaporation (ET) from the rare and indigenous Nkazana Peat Swamp Forest (PSF) on the east coast of Southern Africa to improve the water balance estimates within the area. Total evaporation was measured during three window periods (between seven and nine days each) using an eddy covariance (EC) system on a telescopic mast above the forest canopy. Sapflow of an understory and an emergent tree was measured using a low maintenance heat pulse velocity system for an entire hydrological year (October 2009 to September 2010). An empirical model was derived, describing the relationship between the observed ET of the Nkazana PSF measured during two of the window periods ( R 2 = 0.92 and 0.90) which, overlapped with sapflow measurements, thereby providing hourly estimates of predicted ET of the Nkazana PSF for a year, totalling 1125 mm (while rainfall was 650 mm). In building the empirical model, it was found that including the understory tree sapflow provided no benefit to the model performance. In addition, the observed emergent tree sapflow relationship with observed ET between the two field campaigns was consistent and could be represented by a single empirical model ( R 2 = 0.90; RMSE = 0.08 mm). During the window periods of EC measurement, no single meteorological variable was found to describe the Nkazana PSF ET satisfactorily. However, in terms of evaporation models, the hourly FAO56 Penman–Monteith equation best described the observed ET from EC during the August 2009 ( R 2 = 0.75), November 2009 ( R 2 = 0.85) and March 2010 ( R 2 = 0.76) field campaigns, compared to the Priestley–Taylor model ( R 2 = 0.54, 0.74 and 0.62 during the respective field campaigns). From the empirical model of ET and the FAO56 Penman–Monteith equation, a monthly crop factor ( K c ) was derived for the Nkazana PSF providing a method of estimating long-term swamp forest ET from meteorological data. The monthly crop factor indicated two distinct periods. From February to May, it was between 1.2 and 1.4 compared with June to January, when the crop factor was 0.8 to 1.0. The derived monthly K c values were verified as accurate (to one significant digit) using historical data measured at the same site, also using EC, from a~previous study. The measurements provided insights into the microclimate within a subtropical peat swamp forest and the contrasting sapflow of emergent and understory trees. They showed that expensive, high maintenance equipment can be used during manageable window periods in conjunction with low maintenance systems, dedicated to individual trees, to derive a model to estimate long-term ET over remote heterogeneous forests. In addition, the contrast in ET and rainfall emphasises the reliance of the Nkazana PSF on groundwater.

Description: Dye tracing for investigating flow and transport properties of hydrocarbon-polluted Rabots glaciär, Kebnekaise, Sweden Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 13711-13744, 2014 Author(s): C. C. Clason, C. Coch, J. Jarsjö, K. Brugger, P. Jansson, and G. Rosqvist Over 11 000 L of hydrocarbon pollution was deposited on the surface of Rabots glaciär on the Kebnekaise Massif, northern Sweden, following the crash of a Royal Norwegian Air Force aircraft in March 2012. An environmental monitoring programme was subsequently commissioned, including water, snow and ice sampling. The scientific programme further included a series of dye tracing experiments during the 2013 melt season, conducted to investigate flow pathways for pollutants through the glacier hydrological system, and to gain new insight to the internal hydrological system of Rabots glaciär. Results of dye tracing reveal a degree of homogeneity in the topology of the drainage system throughout July and August, with an increase in efficiency as the season progresses, as reflected by decreasing temporary storage and dispersivity. Early onset of melting likely led to formation of an efficient, discrete drainage system early in the melt season, subject to decreasing sinuosity and braiding as the season progressed. Analysis of turbidity-discharge hysteresis further supports the formation of discrete, efficient drainage, with clockwise diurnal hysteresis suggesting easy mobilisation of readily-available sediments in channels. Dye injection immediately downstream of the pollution source zone revealed prolonged storage of dye followed by fast, efficient release. Twinned with a low dye recovery, and supported by sporadic detection of hydrocarbons in the proglacial river, we suggest that meltwater, and thus pollutants in solution, may be released periodically from this zone of the glacier hydrological system. The here identified dynamics of dye storage, dispersion and breakthrough indicate that the ultimate fate and permanence of pollutants in the glacier system is likely to be governed by storage of pollutants in the firn layer and ice mass, or within the internal hydrological system, where it may refreeze. This shows that future studies on the fate of hydrocarbons in pristine, glaciated mountain environments should address the extent to which pollutants in solution act like water molecules or whether they are more susceptible to, for example, refreezing into the surrounding ice, becoming stuck in micro-fractures and pore spaces, or sorption onto subglacial sediments.

Description: Sampling frequency trade-offs in the assessment of mean transit times of tropical montane catchment waters under semi-steady-state conditions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12443-12488, 2014 Author(s): E. Timbe, D. Windhorst, R. Celleri, L. Timbe, P. Crespo, H.-G. Frede, J. Feyen, and L. Breuer Stream and soil waters were collected on a weekly basis in a tropical montane cloud forest catchment for two years and analyzed for stable water isotopes in order to infer transit time distribution functions and to define the mean transit times. Depending on the water type (stream or soil water), lumped distribution functions such as Exponential-Piston flow, Linear-Piston flow and Gamma models using temporal isotopic variations of precipitation event samples as input, were fitted. Samples were aggregated to daily, weekly, biweekly, monthly and bimonthly time scales in order to check the sensitivity of temporal sampling on model predictions. The study reveals that the effect of decreasing sampling frequency depends on the water type. For soil waters with transit times in the order of weeks to months, there was a clear trend of over prediction. In contrast, the trend of prediction for stream waters, with a dampened isotopic signal and mean transit times in the order of 2 to 4 years, was less clear and depending on the type of model used. The trade-off to coarse data resolutions could potentially lead to misleading conclusions on how water actually moves through the catchment, while at the same time predictions can reach better fitting efficiencies, lesser uncertainties, errors and biases. For both water types an optimal sampling frequency seems to be one or at most two weeks. The results of our analyses provide information for the planning (in particular in terms of cost-benefit and time requirements) of future fieldwork in similar Andean or other catchments.

Description: Quantitative high-resolution observations of soil water dynamics in a complicated architecture with time-lapse Ground-Penetrating Radar Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12365-12404, 2014 Author(s): P. Klenk, S. Jaumann, and K. Roth High-resolution time-lapse Ground-Penetrating Radar (GPR) observations of advancing and retreating water tables can yield a wealth of information about near-surface water content dynamics. In this study, we present and analyze a series of imbibition, drainage and infiltration experiments which have been carried out at our artificial ASSESS test site and observed with surface based GPR. The test site features a complicated but known subsurface architecture constructed with three different kinds of sand. It allows studying soil water dynamics with GPR under a wide range of different conditions. Here, we assess in particular (i) the accurate determination of soil water dynamics averaged over the whole vertical extent by evaluating the bottom reflection and (ii) the feasibility of monitoring the dynamic shape of the capillary fringe reflection. The phenomenology of the GPR response of a dynamically changing capillary fringe is developed from a soil physical point of view. We then explain experimentally observed phenomena based on numerical simulations of both the water content dynamics and the expected GPR response.

Description: Simulating long-term past changes in the balance between water demand and availability and assessing their main drivers at the river basin management scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12315-12364, 2014 Author(s): J. Fabre, D. Ruelland, A. Dezetter, and B. Grouillet The aim of this study was to assess the balance between water demand and availability and its spatial and temporal variability from 1971 to 2009 in the Herault (2500 km 2 , France) and the Ebro (85 000 km 2 , Spain) catchments. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model. The regulation of river flow was accounted for through a widely applicable demand-driven reservoir management model applied to the largest dam in the Herault basin and to 11 major dams in the Ebro basin. Urban water demand was estimated from population and monthly unit water consumption data. Water demand for irrigation was computed from irrigated area, crop and soil data, and climatic forcing. Finally, a series of indicators comparing water supply and water demand at strategic resource and demand nodes were computed at a 10 day time step. Variations in water stress in each catchment over the past 40 years were successfully modeled, taking into account climatic and anthropogenic pressures and changes in water management strategies over time. Observed changes in discharge were explained by separating human and hydro-climatic pressures on water resources: respectively 20 and 3% of the decrease in the Ebro and the Herault discharges were linked to human-induced changes. Although key areas of the Herault basin were shown to be highly sensitive to hydro-climatic variability, the balance between water uses and availability in the Ebro basin appears to be more critical, owing to high agricultural pressure on water resources. The proposed modeling framework is currently being used to assess water stress under climatic and socio-economic prospective scenarios. Further research will investigate the effectiveness of adaptation policies aimed at maintaining the balance between water use and availability.

Description: Time-series analysis of the long-term hydrologic impacts of afforestation in the Águeda watershed of North-Central Portugal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12223-12256, 2014 Author(s): D. Hawtree, J. P. Nunes, J. J. Keizer, R. Jacinto, J. Santos, M. E. Rial-Rivas, A.-K. Boulet, F. Tavares-Wahren, and K.-H. Feger The north-central region of Portugal has undergone significant afforestation of the species Pinus pinaster and Eucalyptus globulus since the early 1900s; however, the long-term hydrologic impacts of this land cover change are not fully understood. To contribute to a better understanding of the potential hydrologic impacts of this land cover change, this study examines the temporal trends in 7 years of data from the Águeda watershed (part of the Vouga Basin) over the period of 1936 to 2010. Meteorological and hydrological records were analysed using a combined Thiel–Sen/Mann–Kendall trend testing approach, to assess the magnitude and significance of patterns in the observed data. These trend tests indicated that there had been no significant reduction in streamflow yield over either the entire test period, or during sub-record periods, despite the large-scale afforestation which had taken place. This lack of change is attributed to both the characteristics of the watershed and the nature of the land cover change. By contrast, a number of significant trends were found for baseflow index, which showed positive trends in the early data record (primarily during Pinus pinaster afforestation), followed by a reversal to negative trends later in the data record (primarily during Eucalyptus globulus afforestation). These changes are attributed to vegetation impacts on streamflow generating processes, both due to the species differences and to alterations in soil properties (i.e. promoting water repellency of the topsoil). These results highlight the importance of considering both vegetation types/dynamics and watershed characteristic when assessing hydrologic impacts, in particular with respect to soil properties.

Description: Reply to D. L. Peters' comment on "Streamflow input to Lake Athabasca, Canada" by Rasouli et al. (2013) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12257-12270, 2014 Author(s): K. Rasouli, M. A. Hernández-Henríquez, and S. J. Déry This paper provides a reply to a comment from Peters (2014) on our recent effort focused on evaluating changes in streamflow input to Lake Athabasca, Canada. Lake Athabasca experienced a 21.2% decline in streamflow input between 1960 and 2010 that has led to a marked decline in its water levels in recent decades. A reassessment of trends in naturalized Lake Athabasca water levels shows insignificant changes from our previous findings reported in Rasouli et al. (2013), and hence our previous conclusions remain unchanged. The reply closes with recommendations for future research to minimize uncertainties in historical assessments of trends in Lake Athabasca water levels and to better project its future water levels driven by climate change and anthropogenic activities in the Athabasca Lake Basin.

Description: Is sinuosity a function of slope and bankfull discharge? – A case study of the meandering rivers in the Pannonian Basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12271-12290, 2014 Author(s): J. Petrovszki, G. Timár, and G. Molnár Pre-regulation channel sinuosities of the meandering rivers of the Pannonian Basin are analysed in order to define a mathematical model to estimate the influence of the bankfull discharge and the channel slope on them. As a primary database, data triplets of slope, discharge and sinuosity values were extracted from historical and modern datasets and pre-regulation historical topographic maps. Channel slope values were systematically modified to estimate figures valid before the river regulation works. The bankfull discharges were estimated from the average discharges using a robust yet complex method. The "classical" graphs of Leopold and Wolman (1957), Ackers and Charlton (1970b) and Schumm and Khan (1972) were compiled to a set up a theoretical surface, whose parameters are estimated by the real values of the above database, containing characteristics of the Pannonian Basin rivers. As a result it occurred that there is a two-dimensional function of the bankfull discharges, which provides a good estimation of the most probable sinuosity values of the rivers with the given slope and discharge characteristics. The average RMS error of this estimation is around 15% on this dataset and believed to be the effect of the non-analysed changes in the sediment discharge and size distribution.

Description: Technical Note: Field experiences using UV/VIS sensors for high-resolution monitoring of nitrate in groundwater Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12291-12314, 2014 Author(s): M. Huebsch, F. Grimmeisen, M. Zemann, O. Fenton, K. G. Richards, P. Jordan, A. Sawarieh, P. Blum, and N. Goldscheider Two different in-situ spectrophotometers are compared that were used in the field to determine nitrate-nitrogen (NO 3 -N) concentrations at two distinct spring discharge sites. One sensor was a double wavelength spectrophotometer (DWS) and the other a multiple wavelength spectrophotometer (MWS). The objective of the study was to review the hardware options, determine ease of calibration, accuracy, influence of additional substances and to assess positive and negative aspects of the two sensors as well as troubleshooting and trade-offs. Both sensors are sufficient to monitor highly time-resolved NO 3 -N concentrations in emergent groundwater. However, the chosen path length of the sensors had a significant influence on the sensitivity and the range of detectable NO 3 -N. The accuracy of the calculated NO 3 -N concentrations of the sensors can be affected, if the content of additional substances such as turbidity, organic matter, nitrite or hydrogen carbonate significantly varies after the sensors have been calibrated to a particular water matrix. The MWS offers more possibilities for calibration and error detection, but requires more expertise compared with the DWS.

Description: Complex networks, streamflow, and hydrometric monitoring system design Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 13663-13710, 2014 Author(s): M. Halverson and S. Fleming Network theory is applied to an array of streamflow gauges located in the Coast Mountains of British Columbia and Yukon, Canada. The goal of the analysis is to assess whether insights from this branch of mathematical graph theory can be meaningfully applied to hydrometric data, and more specifically, whether it may help guide decisions concerning stream gauge placement so that the full complexity of the regional hydrology is efficiently captured. The streamflow data, when represented as a complex network, has a global clustering coefficient and average shortest path length consistent with small-world networks, which are a class of stable and efficient networks common in nature, but the results did not clearly suggest a scale-free network. Stability helps ensure that the network is robust to the loss of nodes; in the context of a streamflow network, stability is interpreted as insensitivity to station removal at random. Community structure is also evident in the streamflow network. A community detection algorithm identified 10 separate communities, each of which appears to be defined by the combination of its median seasonal flow regime (pluvial, nival, hybrid, or glacial, which in this region in turn mainly reflects basin elevation) and geographic proximity to other communities (reflecting shared or different daily meteorological forcing). Betweenness analyses additionally suggest a handful of key stations which serve as bridges between communities and might therefore be highly valued. We propose that an idealized sampling network should sample high-betweenness stations, as well as small-membership communities which are by definition rare or undersampled relative to other communities, while retaining some degree of redundancy to maintain network robustness.

Description: Monitoring and modelling of soil–plant interactions: the joint use of ERT, sap flow and Eddy Covariance data to characterize the volume of an orange tree root zone Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 13353-13384, 2014 Author(s): G. Cassiani, J. Boaga, D. Vanella, M. T. Perri, and S. Consoli Mass and energy exchanges between soil, plants and atmosphere control a number of key environmental processes involving hydrology, biota and climate. The understanding of these exchanges also play a critical role for practical purposes e.g. in precision agriculture. In this paper we present a methodology based on coupling innovative data collection and models in order to obtain quantitative estimates of the key parameters of such complex flow system. In particular we propose the use of hydro-geophysical monitoring via 4-D Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) in conjunction with measurements of plant transpiration via sap flow and evapotranspiration from Eddy Covariance (EC). This abundance of data is fed to a spatially distributed soil model in order to characterize the distribution of active roots. We conducted experiments in an orange orchard in Eastern Sicily (Italy), characterized by the typical Mediterranean semi-arid climate. The subsoil dynamics, particularly influenced by irrigation and root uptake, were characterized mainly by the ERT setup, consisting of 48 buried electrodes on 4 instrumented micro boreholes (about 1.2 m deep) placed at the corners of a square (about 1.3 m in side) surrounding the orange tree, plus 24 mini-electrodes on the surface spaced 0.1 m on a square grid. During the monitoring, we collected repeated ERT and TDR soil moisture measurements, soil water samples, sap flow measurements from the orange tree and EC data. We conducted a laboratory calibration of the soil electrical properties as a function of moisture content and pore water electrical conductivity. Irrigation, precipitation, sap flow and ET data are available allowing knowledge of the system's long term forcing conditions on the system. This information was used to calibrate a 1-D Richards' equation model representing the dynamics of the volume monitored via 3-D ERT. Information on the soil hydraulic properties was collected from laboratory and field experiments. The successful results of the calibrated modeling exercise allow the quantification of the soil volume interested by root water uptake. This volume is much smaller (with a surface area less than 2 m 2 , and about 40 cm thickness) than expected and assumed in the design of classical drip irrigation schemes that prove to be losing at least half of the irrigated water that is not uptaken by the plants.

Description: Testing gridded land precipitation data and precipitation and runoff reanalyses (1982–2010) between 45° S and 45° N with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 13175-13205, 2014 Author(s): S. O. Los The realistic simulation of key components of the land-surface hydrological cycle – precipitation, runoff, evaporation and transpiration – in general circulation models of the atmosphere is crucial to assess adverse weather impacts on environment and society. Here, gridded precipitation data from observations and precipitation and runoff fields from reanalyses were tested with satellite-derived global vegetation index data for 1982–2010 and latitudes between 45° S and 45° N. Data were obtained from the Climate Research Unit (CRU), the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM; analysed for 1998–2010 only) and (precipitation and runoff) reanalyses were obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the NASA Global Modelling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). Annual land-surface precipitation was converted to annual potential vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) and was compared to mean annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data measured by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (1982–1999) and MODIS (2001–2010). The effect of spatial resolution on the agreement between NPP and NDVI was investigated as well. The CRU and TRMM derived NPP agreed most closely with the NDVI data. The GPCP data showed weaker spatial agreement, largely because of their lower spatial resolution, but similar temporal agreement. MERRA Land and ERA Interim precipitation reanalyses showed similar spatial agreement as the GPCP data and good temporal agreement in semi-arid regions of the Americas, Asia, Australia and southern Africa. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis showed the lowest spatial agreement which could only in part be explained by its lower spatial resolution. No reanalysis showed realistic interannual precipitation variations for northern tropical Africa. Inclusion of runoff in the NPP prediction resulted only in (marginally) better agreement for the MERRA Land reanalysis and worse agreement for the NCEP/NCAR and ERA Interim reanalyses.

Description: A global dataset of the extent of irrigated land from 1900 to 2005 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 13207-13258, 2014 Author(s): S. Siebert, M. Kummu, M. Porkka, P. Döll, N. Ramankutty, and B. R. Scanlon Irrigation intensifies land use by increasing crop yield but also impacts water resources. It affects water and energy balances and consequently the microclimate in irrigated regions. Therefore, knowledge of the extent of irrigated land is important for hydrological and crop modelling, global change research, and assessments of resource use and management. Information on the historical evolution of irrigated lands is limited. The new global Historical Irrigation Dataset (HID) provides estimates of the temporal development of the area equipped for irrigation (AEI) between 1900 and 2005 at 5 arc-minute resolution. We collected subnational irrigation statistics from various sources and found that the global extent of AEI increased from 63 million ha (Mha) in 1900 to 112 Mha in 1950 and 306 Mha in 2005. We developed eight gridded versions of time series of AEI by combining subnational irrigation statistics with different data sets on the historical extent of cropland and pasture. Different rules were applied to maximize consistency of the gridded products to subnational irrigation statistics or to historical cropland and pasture data sets. The HID reflects very well the spatial patterns of irrigated land in the western United States as shown on historical maps. Mean aridity on irrigated land increased and river discharge decreased from 1900–1950 whereas aridity decreased from 1950–2005. The dataset and its documentation are made available in an open data repository at https://mygeohub.org/publications/8 (doi: 10.13019/M2MW2G ).

Description: Comprehensive evaluation of water resources security in the Yellow River basin based on a Fuzzy Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis Approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 371-410, 2014 Author(s): K. K. Liu, C. H. Li, Y. P. Cai, M. Xu, and X. H. Xia In this paper, a Fuzzy Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis Approach (FMADAA) was adopted in water resources security evaluation for the nine provinces in the Yellow River basin in 2006. A numerical approximation system and a modified left-right scoring approach were adopted to cope with the uncertainties in the acquired information. Four multi-attribute decision making methods were implemented in the evaluation model for impact evaluation, including simple weighted addition (SWA), weighted product (WP), cooperative game theory (CGT) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) which could be used for helping rank the water resources security in those nine provinces as well as the criteria alternatives. Moreover, several aggregation methods including average ranking procedure, borda and copeland methods were used to integrate the ranking results. The ranking results showed that the water resources security of the entire basin is in critical, insecurity and absolute insecurity state, especially in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia provinces in which water resources were lower than the average quantity in China. Hence, future planning of the Yellow River basin should mainly focus on the improvement of water eco-environment status in the provinces above.

Description: Impact of the Hoa Binh Dam (Vietnam) on water and sediment budgets in the Red River basin and delta Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 333-370, 2014 Author(s): D. V. Vu, S. Ouillon, D. T. Tran, and V. C. La The Hoa Binh Dam, located on a tributary of the Red River in Vietnam, has a capacity of 9.45 × 10 9 m 3 and was commissioned in December 1988. Although being important for flood prevention, electricity production, and irrigation in northern Vietnam, the Hoa Binh Dam has also highly influenced the suspended sediment distribution in the lower Red River basin, in the delta and in the coastal zone. Its impact was analysed from 50 yr dataset of water discharge and suspended sediment concentration (1960–2010) and the distribution of water and sediment across the nine mouths of the delta was calculated using the MIKE 11 numerical model before and after the dam settlement. Although water discharge at the delta inlet decreased by only 8.8%, the yearly suspended sediment flux dropped, on average from 119 to 43 × 10 6 t yr −1 at Son Tay near Hanoi, and from 85 to 35 × 10 6 t yr −1 in the river mouths. Water regulation has led to decreased water discharge in the wet season and increased water discharge in the dry season. Suspended sediment discharge proportionally increased in northern and southern estuaries and decreased through the main and central Ba Lat mouth. Tidal pumping, which causes a net sediment flux from the coast to the estuary at low discharge, is high in the northern delta, as a consequence of the high tidal range (up to 4.5 m in spring tide; diurnal tide). The shifts in the dynamic and characteristics of the turbidity maximum zone in the Cam-Bach Dang estuary are probably the cause of the enhanced sediment deposition in the Haiphong harbor. Along the coast, the reduced sedimentation rates are coincident with the lower sediment delivery that has been observed since the impoundment of the Hoa Binh Dam.

Description: Theory of the generalized chloride mass balance method for recharge estimation in groundwater basins characterised by point and diffuse recharge Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 307-332, 2014 Author(s): N. Somaratne and K. R. J. Smettem Application of the conventional chloride mass balance (CMB) method to point recharge dominant groundwater basins can substantially under-estimate long-term average annual recharge by not accounting for the effects of localized surface water inputs. This is because the conventional CMB method ignores the duality of infiltration and recharge found in karstic systems, where point recharge can be a contributing factor. When point recharge is present in groundwater basins, recharge estimation is unsuccessful using the conventional CMB method with, either unsaturated zone chloride or groundwater chloride. In this paper we describe a generalized CMB that can be applied to groundwater basins with point recharge. Results from this generalized CMB are shown to be comparable with long-term recharge estimates obtained using the watertable fluctuation method, groundwater flow modelling and Darcy flow calculations. The generalized CMB method provides an alternative, reliable long-term recharge estimation method for groundwater basins characterised by both point and diffuse recharge.

Description: Parameterizing complex root water uptake models – the arrangement of root hydraulic properties within the root architecture affects dynamics and efficiency of root water uptake Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 757-805, 2014 Author(s): M. Bechmann, C. Schneider, A. Carminati, D. Vetterlein, S. Attinger, and A. Hildebrandt Detailed three-dimensional models of root water uptake have become increasingly popular for investigating the process of root water uptake. However they suffer from a lack of information in important parameters, especially distribution of root hydraulic properties. In this paper we explore the role that arrangement of root hydraulic properties and root system topology play for modelled uptake dynamics. We apply microscopic models of single root structures to investigate the mechanisms shaping uptake dynamics and demonstrate the effects in a complex three dimensional root water uptake model. We introduce two efficiency indices, for (a) overall plant resistance and (b) water stress and show that an appropriate arrangement of root hydraulic properties can increase modelled efficiency of root water uptake in single roots, branched roots and entire root systems. The average uptake depth of the complete root system was not influenced by parameterization. However, other factors such as evolution of collar potential, which is related to the plant resistance, root bleeding and redistribution patterns were strongly affected by the parameterization. Root systems are more efficient when they are assembled of different root types, allowing for separation of root function in uptake (short young) roots and transport (longer mature) roots. Results become similar, as soon as this composition is accounted for to some degree (between 40 and 80% of young uptake roots). Overall resistance to root water uptake was decreased up to 40% and total transpiration was increased up to 25% in these composed root systems, compared to homogenous root systems. Also, one parameterization (homogenous young root system) was characterized by excessive bleeding (hydraulic lift), which was accompanied by lowest efficiency. We conclude that heterogeneity of root hydraulic properties is a critical component of complex three dimensional uptake models. Efficiency measures together with information on critical xylem potentials may be useful in parameterizing root property distribution.

Description: Dynamic mapping of flood boundaries: current possibilities offered by Earth Observation System and Cellular Automata Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 833-860, 2014 Author(s): A. Gerardi, M. Ioannilli, and F. Del Frate Flooding is an ongoing and complex problem in Italy. Very large floods caused inundation of the closest areas to the city centre in Rome in 1937, 1976, 1992, 2005 and most recently in 2008. Rome is located at the bottom of the Tiber River catchment, which cover an area of 16 000 km 2 . Intense precipitations struck the Tyrrhenian Sea side of the peninsula inducing a flood event on the Tiber and Aniene's (Tiber's tributary) basins – which captured the attention of the national and international media. Actually there is no validated model in operation for real-time flood forecasting. This research aims at comparing the Cellular Model CAESAR (Cellular Automation Evolutionary Slope And River) application on a reach of the Aniene River with Earth Observation Systems. The main result expected is the prediction of future channel dynamics on short and medium time scale.

Description: The role of Amazon Basin moisture on the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle: a Lagrangian analysis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 1023-1046, 2014 Author(s): A. Drumond, J. Marengo, T. Ambrizzi, R. Nieto, L. Moreira, and L. Gimeno We used a Lagrangian model (FLEXPART) and the 1979–2012 ERA Interim reanalysis data to investigate the role of Amazon Basin moisture in the regional hydrological budget along the year. FLEXPART computes budgets of evaporation minus precipitation by calculating changes in the specific humidity along forward and backwards trajectories. The Tropical Atlantic (TA) is the major remote moisture source for Amazon Basin. Northern TA contributes during the Austral Summer mainly, while the contribution of southern TA prevails in the rest of the year. On the other hand, moisture contribution from Amazon Basin occurs for southeastern South America predominantly. A focus was given for the modulation of ENSO over the inter annual variations in the hydrological budget over Amazon. During El Niño events, the contribution from NA increases from June/year 0 to January/year 1 slightly and the contribution from SA is enhanced during Austral Autumn/year 1. Enhanced transport from Amazon towards Southeastern South America prevails during an El Niño episode.

Description: Horizontal soil water potential heterogeneity: simplifying approaches for crop water dynamics models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 1203-1252, 2014 Author(s): V. Couvreur, J. Vanderborght, L. Beff, and M. Javaux Soil water potential (SWP) is known to affect plant water status, and even though observations demonstrate that SWP distribution around roots may limit plant water availability, its horizontal heterogeneity within the root zone is often neglected in hydrological models. As motive, using a horizontal discretisation significantly larger than one centimetre is often essential for computing time considerations, especially for large scale hydrodynamics models. In this paper, we simulate soil and root system hydrodynamics at the centimetre scale and evaluate approaches to upscale variables and parameters related to root water uptake (RWU) for two crop systems: a densely seeded crop with an average uniform distribution of roots in the horizontal direction (winter wheat) and a wide-row crop with lateral variations in root density (maize). In a first approach, the upscaled water potential at soil–root interfaces was assumed to equal the bulk SWP of the upscaled soil element. Using this assumption, the 3-D high resolution model could be accurately upscaled to a 2-D model for maize and a 1-D model for wheat. The accuracy of the upscaled models generally increased with soil hydraulic conductivity, lateral homogeneity of root distribution, and low transpiration rate. The link between horizontal upscaling and an implicit assumption on soil water redistribution was demonstrated in quantitative terms, and explained upscaling accuracy. In a second approach, the soil–root interface water potential was estimated by using a constant rate analytical solution of the axisymmetric soil water flow towards individual roots. In addition to the theoretical model properties, effective properties were tested in order to account for unfulfilled assumptions of the analytical solution: non-uniform lateral root distributions and transient RWU rates. Significant improvements were however only noticed for winter wheat, for which the first approach was already satisfying. This study confirms that the use of 1-D spatial discretisation to represent soil-plant water dynamics is a worthy choice for densely seeded crops. For wide-row crops, e.g. maize, further theoretical developments that better account for horizontal SWP heterogeneity might be needed in order to properly predict soil-plant hydrodynamics in 1-D.

Description: Continental hydrosystem modelling: the concept of nested stream–aquifer interfaces Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 451-500, 2014 Author(s): N. Flipo, A. Mouhri, B. Labarthe, and S. Biancamaria Recent developments in hydrological modelling are based on a view of the interface being a single continuum through which water flows. These coupled hydrological-hydrogeological models, emphasising the importance of the stream–aquifer interface, are more and more used in hydrological sciences for pluri-disciplinary studies aiming at investigating environmental issues. This notion of a single continuum, which is accepted by the hydrological modellers, originates in the historical modelling of hydrosystems based on the hypothesis of a homogeneous media that led to the Darcy law. There is then a need to first bridge the gap between hydrological and eco-hydrological views of the stream–aquifer interfaces, and, secondly, to rationalise the modelling of stream–aquifer interface within a consistent framework that fully takes into account the multi-dimensionality of the stream–aquifer interfaces. We first define the concept of nested stream–aquifer interfaces as a key transitional component of continental hydrosystem. Based on a literature review, we then demonstrate the usefulness of the concept for the multi-dimensional study of the stream–aquifer interface, with a special emphasis on the stream network, which is identified as the key component for scaling hydrological processes occurring at the interface. Finally we focus on the stream–aquifer interface modelling at different scales, with up-to-date methodologies and give some guidances for the multi-dimensional modelling of the interface using the innovative methodology MIM (Measurements-Interpolation-Modelling), which is graphically developed, scaling in space the three pools of methods needed to fully understand stream–aquifer interfaces at various scales. The outcome of MIM is the localisation in space of the stream–aquifer interface types that can be studied by a given approach. The efficiency of the method is demonstrated with two approaches from the local (~1 m) to the continental (

Description: Evaluating the SSEBop approach for evapotranspiration mapping with landsat data using lysimetric observations in the semi-arid Texas High Plains Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 723-756, 2014 Author(s): G. B. Senay, P. H. Gowda, S. Bohms, T. A. Howell, M. Friedrichs, T. H. Marek, and J. P. Verdin The operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) approach was applied on 14 Landsat 5 thermal infrared images for mapping daily actual evapotranspiration (ETa) fluxes during the spring and summer seasons (March–October) in 2006 and 2007. Data from four large lysimeters, managed by the USDA-ARS Conservation and Production Research Laboratory were used for evaluating the SSEBop estimated ETa. Lysimeter fields are arranged in a 2 × 2 block pattern with two fields each managed under irrigated and dryland cropping systems. The modeled and observed daily ETa values were grouped as "irrigated" and "dryland" at four different aggregation periods (1-day, 2-day, 3 day and "seasonal") for evaluation. There was a strong linear relationship between observed and modeled ETa with R 2 values ranging from 0.87 to 0.97. The root mean square error (RMSE), as percent of their respective mean values, were reduced progressively with 28, 24, 16 and 12% at 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, and seasonal aggregation periods, respectively. With a further correction of the underestimation bias (−11%), the seasonal RMSE reduced from 12 to 6%. The random error contribution to the total error was reduced from 86 to 20% while the bias' contribution increased from 14 to 80% when aggregated from daily to seasonal scale, respectively. This study shows the reliable performance of the SSEBop approach on the Landsat data stream with a transferable approach for use with the recently launched LDCM (Landsat Data Continuity Mission) Thermal InfraRed Sensor (TIRS) data. Thus, SSEBop can produce quick, reliable and useful ET estimations at various time scales with higher seasonal accuracy for use in regional water management decisions.

Description: Effects of ecological factors and human activities on nonpoint source pollution in the upper reach of the Yangtze River and its management strategies Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 691-721, 2014 Author(s): X. W. Ding, Z. Y. Shen, R. M. Liu, L. Chen, and M. Lin The effects of ecological and human activities on nonpoint source (NPS) pollution are key issues for sustainable water resources management. In this study, the Improved Export Coefficient Model and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation were adopted to estimate the annual loads of NPS pollutants during the period from 1960 through 2003 in the upper reach of the Yangtze River (URYR). Ecological factors and human activities affecting NPS pollution were distinguished and their respective effects were assessed. Variations of the dominant cause (between ecological factors and human activities) were presented. Furthermore, the combined effect of them on NPS pollution were successfully revealed. The results showed that the annual loads raised from ecological factors of dissolved nitrogen (DN) and dissolved phosphorus (DP) were relatively steady from 1960 to 2003. But those of sediment, absorbed nitrogen (AN) and absorbed phosphorus (AP) decreased during that period. In terms of the annual loads caused by human activities, those of dissolved pollutants increased from 1960 to 2000 and then fell. Those of sediment as well as absorbed pollutants peaked in 1980 and then decreased. Simultaneously, the dominant cause of DN loads shifted from ecological factors to human activities after 1980 while DP loads were mainly contributed by human activities. However, sediment, dissolved pollutants were primarily exported by ecological factors. Finally, strategies for managing anthropogenic activities were proposed and their effects on NPS pollution reduction were also depicted quantitatively.

Description: Global meteorological drought – Part 1: Probabilistic monitoring Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 889-917, 2014 Author(s): E. Dutra, F. Wetterhall, F. Di Giuseppe, G. Naumann, P. Barbosa, J. Vogt, W. Pozzi, and F. Pappenberger Near-real time drought monitoring can provide decision makers valuable information for use in several areas, such as water resources management, or international aid. One of the main constrains of assessing the current drought situation is associated with the lack of reliable sources of observed precipitation on a global scale available in near-real time. Furthermore, monitoring systems also need a long record of past observations to provide mean climatological conditions. To address these problems a novel probabilistic drought monitoring methodology based on ECMWF probabilistic forecasts is presented where probabilistic monthly means of precipitation were derived from short-range forecasts and merged with the long term climatology of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) dataset. From the merged dataset, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was estimated. This methodology was compared with the GPCC first guess precipitation product and also SPI calculations using the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation datasets. ECMWF probabilistic forecasts for near-real time monitoring are similar to GPCC and TRMM in terms of correlation and root mean square errors, with the added value of including an estimate of the uncertainty given by the ensemble spread. The real time availability of this product and its stability, i.e. that it does not depend directly on local rain-gauges or single satellite products, are also beneficial in light of an operational implementation.

Description: Global meteorological drought – Part 2: Seasonal forecasts Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 919-944, 2014 Author(s): E. Dutra, W. Pozzi, F. Wetterhall, F. Di Giuseppe, L. Magnusson, G. Naumann, P. Barbosa, J. Vogt, and F. Pappenberger Global seasonal forecasts of meteorological drought using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) are produced using two datasets as initial conditions: the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) and the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI); and two seasonal forecasts of precipitation: the most current ECMWF seasonal forecast system and climatologically based ensemble forecasts. The forecast skill is concentrated on verification months where precipitation deficits are likely to have higher drought impacts and grouped over different regions in the world. Verification of the forecasts as a function of lead time revealed a reduced impact on skill for: (i) long lead times using different initial conditions, and (ii) short lead times using different precipitation forecasts. The memory effect of initial conditions was found to be 1 month lead time for the SPI-3, 3 to 4 months for the SPI-6 and 5 months for the SPI-12. Results show that dynamical forecasts of precipitation provide added value, a skill similar or better than climatological forecasts. In some cases, particularly for long SPI time scales, it is very difficult to improve on the use of climatological forecasts. Our results also support recent questions whether seasonal forecasting of global drought onset was essentially a stochastic forecasting problem. Results are presented regionally and globally, and our results point to several regions in the world where drought onset forecasting is feasible and skilful.

Description: Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 861-888, 2014 Author(s): F. Wetterhall, H. C. Winsemius, E. Dutra, M. Werner, and F. Pappenberger The rainfall in Southern Africa has a large interannual variability, which can cause rain-fed agriculture to fail. The staple crop maize is especially sensitive to dry spells during the early growing season. An early prediction of the probability of dry spells and below normal precipitation can potentially mitigate damages through water management. This paper investigates how well ECMWF's seasonal forecasts predict dry spells over the Limpopo basin during the rainy season December–February (DJF) with lead times from 1 to 5 months. The seasonal forecasts were evaluated against ERA-Interim reanalysis data which in turn was corrected with GPCP (EGPCP) to match monthly precipitation totals. The seasonal forecasts were also bias-corrected with the EGPCP using quantile matching as well as post-processed using a precipitation threshold to define a dry day as well as spatial filtering. The results indicate that the forecasts show skill in predicting dry spells in comparison with a "climatological ensemble" based on previous years. Quantile matching in combination with a precipitation threshold improved the skill of the forecast, whereas a spatial filter had no effect. The skill in prediction of dry spells was largest over the most drought-sensitive region. Seasonal forecasts have potential to be used in a probabilistic forecast system for drought-sensitive crops, though these should be used with caution given the large uncertainties.

Description: The influence of methodological procedures on hydrological classification performance Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 945-985, 2014 Author(s): F. J. Peñas, J. Barquín, T. H. Snelder, D. J. Booker, and C. Álvarez Hydrological classification has emerged as a suitable procedure to disentangle the inherent hydrological complexity of river networks. This practice has contributed to determine key biophysical relations in fluvial ecosystems and the effects of flow modification. Thus, a plethora of classification approaches, which agreed in general concepts and methods but differed largely in specific procedures, have emerged in the last decades. However, few studies have compared the implication of applying contrasting approaches over the same hydrological data. In this work, using cluster analysis and modelling approaches, we classify the entire river network covering the northern third of the Iberian Peninsula. Specifically, we developed classifications of increasing level of detail, ranging from 2 to 20-class levels, either based on raw and normalized daily flow series and using two contrasting approaches to determine class membership: Classify-Then-Predict (ClasF) and Predict-Then-Classify (PredF). Classifications were compared in terms of their statistical strength, the hydrological interpretation, the ability to reduce the bias associated to the underrepresented parts of the hydrological space and the spatial correspondence. The results highlighted that both the data processing and the classification strategy largely influenced the classification outcomes and properties, although differences among procedures were not always statistically significant. The normalization of flow data removed the effect of flow size and generated more complex classifications in which a wider range of hydrologic characteristics were considered. The application of the PredF strategy produced, in most of the cases, classifications with higher discrimination ability, greater ability to address the bias associated with the presence of distinctive gauges and classifications in which classes were more evenly distributed than using the ClasF strategy.

Description: Diagnostic calibration of a hydrological model in an alpine area Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 1253-1300, 2014 Author(s): Z. He, F. Tian, H. C. Hu, H. V. Gupta, and H. P. Hu Hydrological modeling depends on single- or multiple-objective strategies for parameter calibration using long time sequences of observed streamflow. Here, we demonstrate a diagnostic approach to the calibration of a hydrological model of an alpine area in which we partition the hydrograph based on the dominant runoff generation mechanism (groundwater baseflow, glacier melt, snowmelt, and direct runoff). The partitioning reflects the spatiotemporal variability in snowpack, glaciers, and temperature. Model parameters are grouped by runoff generation mechanism, and each group is calibrated separately via a stepwise approach. This strategy helps to reduce the problem of equifinality and, hence, model uncertainty. We demonstrate the method for the Tailan River basin (1324 km 2 ) in the Tianshan Mountains of China with the help of a semi-distributed hydrological model (THREW).

Description: Evaluation of TRMM 3B42 (TMPA) precipitation estimates and WRF retrospective precipitation simulation over the Pacific-Andean basin into Ecuador and Peru Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 411-449, 2014 Author(s): A. Ochoa, L. Pineda, P. Willems, and P. Crespo An important issue for the Pacific-Andean basin in western South-America is whether the latest satellite-based and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model outputs, provide the potential to compensate data scarcity. Based on a comprehensive dataset of ground precipitation, the performance of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42V7 and its predecessor version the 3B42V6, and the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) precipitation product (OA-NOSA30) are evaluated over 21 sub-catchments situated in the westernmost N-S axis of South America: the Pacific-Andean Basin in Ecuador and Peru (PAEP). In general, precipitation estimates from TRMM and OA-NOSA30 capture the seasonal features of precipitation in the study area. Quantitatively, only the Southern sub-catchments of Ecuador and Northern Peru (3.6–6° S) are relatively well estimated by both methods. The accuracy of both approaches is considerably less in the northern and central basins of Ecuador (0–3.6° S). It is shown that the detection probability is better for light precipitation (less than 5 mm day −1 ). Compared to its predecessor 3B42V7 shows modest basin-wide improvements in reducing biases. The improvement is specific to the coastal and open ocean sub-catchments. In view of hydrological applications, the correlation of TMPA's and OA-NOSA30 estimates with observations increases with time aggregation. The correlation is higher for the monthly time aggregation in comparison with the daily, weekly and 15-daily time scales. Furthermore, it is found that TMPA performs better than OA-NOSA30 in generating the spatial distribution of mean annual precipitation.

Description: A prototype framework for models of socio-hydrology: identification of key feedback loops with application to two Australian case-studies Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 629-689, 2014 Author(s): Y. Elshafei, M. Sivapalan, M. Tonts, and M. R. Hipsey It is increasingly acknowledged that, in order to sustainably manage global freshwater resources, it is critical that we better understand the nature of human-hydrology interactions at the broader catchment system-scale. Yet to date, a generic conceptual framework for building models of catchment systems that include adequate representation of socioeconomic systems – and the dynamic feedbacks between human and natural systems – has remained elusive. In an attempt to work towards such a model, this paper outlines a generic framework for a model of socio-hydrology that posits a novel construct, a composite Community Sensitivity state variable, as a key link to elucidate the drivers of behavioural response in a hydrological context. The framework provides for both macro-scale contextual parameters, which allow it to be applied across climate, socioeconomic and political gradients, and catchment-specific conditions, by way of tailored "closure relationships", in order to ensure that site-specific and application-specific contexts of socio-hydrologic problems can be accommodated. To demonstrate how such a framework would be applied, two different socio-hydrological case studies, taken from the Australian experience, are presented and discussed. It is envisioned that the application of this framework across study sites and gradients will aid in developing our understanding of the fundamental interactions and feedbacks in such complex human-hydrology systems, and allow hydrologists to participate in the growing field of social-ecological systems modelling.

Description: An optimisation approach for shallow lake restoration through macrophyte management Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 807-832, 2014 Author(s): Z. H. Xu, X. A. Yin, and Z. F. Yang Lake eutrophication is a serious global environmental issue. Phytoremediation is a promising, cost-effective, and environmentally friendly technology for water quality restoration. However, besides nutrient removal, macrophytes also deeply affect the hydrologic cycle of lake system through evapotranspiration. Changes in hydrologic cycle caused by macrophytes have a great influence on lake water quality restoration. As a result of the two opposite effects of macrophytes on water quality restoration (i.e. an increase in macrophytes can increase nutrient removal and improve water quality while also increasing evapotranspiration, reducing water volume and consequently decreasing water quality), rational macrophyte control through planting and harvest is very important. In this study, a new approach is proposed to optimise the initial planting area and monthly harvest scheme of macrophytes for water quality restoration. The month-by-month effects of macrophyte management on lake water quality are considered. Baiyangdian Lake serves as a case study, using the common reed. It was found that water quality was closest to Grade III on the Chinese water quality scale when the reed planting area was 123 km 2 (40% of the lake surface area) and most reeds would be harvested at the end of June. The optimisation approach proposed in this study will be a useful reference for lake restoration.

Description: A dual-inexact fuzzy stochastic model for water resources management and non-point source pollution mitigation under multiple uncertainties Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 987-1022, 2014 Author(s): C. Dong, Q. Tan, G.-H. Huang, and Y.-P. Cai In this research, a dual-inexact fuzzy stochastic programming (DIFSP) method was developed for supporting the planning of water and farmland use management system considering the non-point source pollution mitigation under uncertainty. The random boundary interval (RBI) was incorporated into DIFSP through integrating fuzzy programming (FP) and chance-constrained programming (CCP) approaches within an interval linear programming (ILP) framework. The lower and upper bounds of RBI are continuous random variables, and the correlation exiting between the lower and upper bounds can be tackled in RBI through the joint probability distribution function. And thus the subjectivity of decision making is greatly reduced, enhancing the stability and robustness of obtained solutions. The proposed method was then applied to solve a water and farmland use planning model (WFUPM) with non-point source pollution. The generated results could provide decision makers with detailed water supply-demand schemes involving diversified water related activities under various system conditions. These useful solutions could allow more in-depth analyses of the trade-offs between human and environment, as well as those between system optimality and reliability. In addition, comparative analyses on the solutions obtained from ICCP (Interval chance-constraints programming) and DIFSP demonstrated the higher application of this developed approach for supporting the water and farmland use system planning.

Description: Determination of virtual water content of rice and spatial characteristics analysis in China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 1047-1072, 2014 Author(s): L. J. Zhang, X. A. Yin, Y. Zhi, and Z. F. Yang China is a water-stressed country, and agriculture consumes the bulk of its water resources. Assessing the virtual water content (VWC) of crops is one important way to develop efficient water management measures to alleviate water resources conflicts among different sectors. In this research, the VWC of rice, as a major crop in China, was assessed and the spatial characteristics were analyzed. In addition to the calculation of green, blue and grey water – the direct water in VWC – the indirect water use of rice was also calculated, using the Input–Output model. The percentages of direct green, blue, grey and indirect water in the total VWC of rice in China were 43.8, 28.2, 27.6, and 0.4%. The total VWC of rice generally showed a three-tiered distribution, and decreased from southeast to northwest. The higher values of direct green water of rice were mainly concentrated in Southeast and Southwest China, while these values were relatively low in Northwest China and Inner Mongolia. The higher direct blue water values were mainly concentrated in the eastern and southern coastal regions and Northwest China, and low values were mainly concentrated in Southwest China. Grey water values were relatively high in Shanxi and Guangxi provinces and low in Northeast and Northwest China. The regions with high values for indirect water were randomly distributed but the regions with low values were mainly concentrated in Northwest and Southwest China. For the regions with relatively high total VWC the high values of blue water made the largest contribution, although for the country as a whole the direct green water is the most important contributor.

Description: Hydroclimatic regimes: a distributed water-balance framework for hydrologic assessment and classification Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 2933-2965, 2014 Author(s): P. K. Weiskel, D. M. Wolock, P. J. Zarriello, R. M. Vogel, S. B. Levin, and R. M. Lent Runoff-based indicators of terrestrial water availability are appropriate for humid regions, but have tended to limit our basic hydrologic understanding of drylands – the dry-sub-humid, semi-arid, and arid regions which presently cover nearly half of the global land surface. In response, we introduce an indicator framework that gives equal weight to humid and dryland regions, accounting fully for both vertical (precipitation + evapotranspiration) and horizontal (groundwater + surface-water) components of the hydrologic cycle in any given location – as well as fluxes into and out of landscape storage. We apply the framework to a diverse hydroclimatic region (the conterminous USA), using a distributed water-balance model consisting of 53 400 networked landscape hydrologic units. Our model simulations indicate that about 21% of the conterminous USA either generated no runoff or consumed runoff from upgradient sources on a mean-annual basis during the 20th century. Vertical fluxes exceeded horizontal fluxes across 76% of the conterminous area. Long-term average total water availability (TWA) during the 20th century, defined here as the total influx to a landscape hydrologic unit from precipitation, groundwater, and surface water, varied spatially by about 400 000-fold, a range of variation ~100 times larger than that for mean-annual runoff across the same area. The framework includes, but is not limited to classical, runoff-based approaches to water-resource assessment. It also incorporates and re-interprets the green-blue water perspective now gaining international acceptance. Implications of the new framework for hydrologic assessment and classification are explored.

Description: Hydrologic landscape classification assesses streamflow vulnerability to climate change in Oregon, USA Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 2875-2931, 2014 Author(s): S. G. Leibowitz, R. L. Comeleo, P. J. Wigington Jr., C. P. Weaver, P. E. Morefield, E. A. Sproles, and J. L. Ebersole Classification can allow assessments of the hydrologic functions of landscapes and their responses to stressors. Here we demonstrate the use of a hydrologic landscape (HL) approach to assess vulnerability to potential future climate change at statewide and basin scales. The HL classification has five components: climate, seasonality, aquifer permeability, terrain, and soil permeability. We evaluate changes when the 1971–2000 HL climate indices are recalculated using 2041–2070 simulation results from the ECHAM and PCM climate models with the A2, A1b, and B1 emission scenarios. Changes in climate class were modest (4–18%) statewide. However, there were major changes in seasonality class for five of the six realizations (excluding PCM_B1): Oregon shifts from being 13% snow-dominated to 4–6% snow-dominated under these five realizations, representing a 56–68% reduction in snowmelt-dominated area. At the basin scale, projected changes for the Siletz basin, in Oregon's coast range, include a small switch from very wet to wet climate, with no change in seasonality. However, there is a modest increase in fall and winter water due to increased precipitation. For the Sandy basin, on the western slope of the Cascades, HL climate class does not change, but there are major changes in seasonality, especially for areas with low aquifer permeability, which experiences a 100% loss of spring seasonality. This would reduce summer baseflow, but impacts could potentially be mitigated by streamflow buffering effects provided by groundwater in the high aquifer permeability portions of the upper Sandy. The Middle Fork John Day basin (MFJD), in northeastern Oregon, is snowmelt-dominated. The basin experiences a net loss of wet and moist climate area, along with an increase in dry climate area. The MFJD also experiences major shifts from spring to winter seasonality, representing a 20–60% reduction in snowmelt-dominated area. Altered seasonality and/or magnitude of seasonal streamflows could potentially affect survival, growth and reproduction of salmonids in these watersheds, with greatest effects projected for the MFJD. A major strength of the HL approach is that results can be applied to similarly classified, ungaged basins. Information resulting from such assessments can help inform management responses to climate change at regional and basin scales without requiring detailed modeling efforts.

Description: Protecting environmental flows through enhanced water licensing and water markets Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 2967-3003, 2014 Author(s): T. Erfani, O. Binions, and J. J. Harou To enable economically efficient future adaptation to water scarcity some countries are revising water management institutions such as water rights or licensing systems to more effectively protect ecosystems and their services. Allocating more flow to the environment though can mean less abstraction for economic production, or the inability to accommodate new entrants (diverters). Modern licensing arrangements should simultaneously enhance environmental flows and protect water abstractors who depend on water. Making new licensing regimes compatible with tradable water rights is an important component of water allocation reform. Regulated water markets can help decrease the societal cost of water scarcity whilst enforcing environmental and/or social protections. In this article we simulate water markets under a regime of fixed volumetric water abstraction licenses with fixed minimum flows or under a scalable water license regime (using water "shares") with dynamic environmental minimum flows. Shares allow adapting allocations to available water and dynamic environmental minimum flows can vary as a function of ecological requirements. We investigate how a short-term spot market manifests within each licensing regime. We use a river-basin-scale hydro-economic agent model that represents individual abstractors and can simulate a spot market under both licensing regimes. We apply this model to the Great Ouse river basin in Eastern England with public water supply, agricultural, energy and industrial water using agents. Results show the proposed shares with dynamic environmental flow licensing system protects river flows more effectively than the current static minimum flow requirements during a dry historical year, but that the total opportunity cost to water abstractors of the environmental gains is a 10 to 15% loss in economic benefits.

Description: Uncertainty in runoff based on Global Climate Model precipitation and temperature data – Part 2: Estimation and uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 4579-4638, 2014 Author(s): M. C. Peel, R. Srikanthan, T. A. McMahon, and D. J. Karoly Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between Global Climate Models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Within-GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The limited number of runs available for each GCM and scenario combination within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets, limits the assessment of within-GCM uncertainty. In this second of two companion papers, the primary aim is to approximate within-GCM uncertainty of monthly precipitation and temperature projections and assess its impact on modelled runoff for climate change impact assessments. A secondary aim is to assess the impact of between-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff. Here we approximate within-GCM uncertainty by developing non-stationary stochastic replicates of GCM monthly precipitation and temperature data. These replicates are input to an off-line hydrologic model to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected annual runoff and reservoir yield. To-date within-GCM uncertainty has received little attention in the hydrologic climate change impact literature and this analysis provides an approximation of the uncertainty in projected runoff, and reservoir yield, due to within- and between-GCM uncertainty of precipitation and temperature projections. In the companion paper, McMahon et al. (2014) sought to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by removing poorly performing GCMs, resulting in a selection of five better performing GCMs from CMIP3 for use in this paper. Here we present within- and between-GCM uncertainty results in mean annual precipitation (MAP), temperature (MAT) and runoff (MAR), the standard deviation of annual precipitation (SDP) and runoff (SDR) and reservoir yield for five CMIP3 GCMs at 17 world-wide catchments. Based on 100 stochastic replicates of each GCM run at each catchment, within-GCM uncertainty was assessed in relative form as the standard deviation expressed as a percentage of the mean of the 100 replicate values of each variable. The average relative within-GCM uncertainty from the 17 catchments and 5 GCMs for 2015–2044 (A1B) were: MAP 4.2%, SDP 14.2%, MAT 0.7%, MAR 10.1% and SDR 17.6%. The Gould–Dincer Gamma procedure was applied to each annual runoff time-series for hypothetical reservoir capacities of 1× MAR and 3× MAR and the average uncertainty in reservoir yield due to within-GCM uncertainty from the 17 catchments and 5 GCMs were: 25.1% (1× MAR) and 11.9% (3× MAR). Our approximation of within-GCM uncertainty is expected to be an underestimate due to not replicating the GCM trend. However, our results indicate that within-GCM uncertainty is important when interpreting climate change impact assessments. Approximately 95% of values of MAP, SDP, MAT, MAR, SDR and reservoir yield from 1× MAR or 3× MAR capacity reservoirs are expected to fall within twice their respective relative uncertainty (standard deviation/mean). Within-GCM uncertainty has significant implications for interpreting climate change impact assessments that report future changes within our range of uncertainty for a given variable – these projected changes may be due solely to within-GCM uncertainty. Since within-GCM variability is amplified from precipitation to runoff and then to reservoir yield, climate change impact assessments that do not take into account within-GCM uncertainty risk providing water resources management decision makers with a sense of certainty that is unjustified.

Description: Uncertainty in runoff based on Global Climate Model precipitation and temperature data – Part 1: Assessment of Global Climate Models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 4531-4578, 2014 Author(s): T. A. McMahon, M. C. Peel, and D. J. Karoly Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between Global Climate Models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Uncertainty between GCM projections of future climate can be assessed through analysis of runs of a given scenario from a wide range of GCMs. Within GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The objective of this, the first of two complementary papers, is to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by identifying and removing poorly performing GCMs prior to the analysis presented in the second paper. Here we assess how well 46 runs from 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) GCMs are able to reproduce observed precipitation and temperature climatological statistics. The performance of each GCM in reproducing these statistics was ranked and better performing GCMs identified for later analyses. Observed global land surface precipitation and temperature data were drawn from the CRU 3.10 gridded dataset and re-sampled to the resolution of each GCM for comparison. Observed and GCM based estimates of mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, mean monthly precipitation and temperature and Köppen climate type were compared. The main metrics for assessing GCM performance were the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index and RMSE between modelled and observed long-term statistics. This information combined with a literature review of the performance of the CMIP3 models identified the following five models as the better performing models for the next phase of our analysis in assessing the uncertainty in runoff estimated from GCM projections of precipitation and temperature: HadCM3 (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research), MIROCM (Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Frontier Research Center for Global Change), MIUB (Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn, Meteorological Research Institute of KMA, and Model and Data group), MPI (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology) and MRI (Japan Meteorological Research Institute).

Description: Assimilation of satellite data to optimize large scale hydrological model parameters: a case study for the SWOT mission Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 4477-4530, 2014 Author(s): V. Pedinotti, A. Boone, S. Ricci, S. Biancamaria, and N. Mognard During the last few decades, satellite measurements have been widely used to study the continental water cycle, especially in regions where in situ measurements are not readily available. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission will deliver maps of water surface elevation (WSE) with an unprecedented resolution and provide observation of rivers wider than 100 m and water surface areas greater than approximately 250 m × 250 m over continental surfaces between 78° S and 78° N. This study aims to investigate the potential of SWOT data for parameter optimization for large scale river routing models which are typically employed in Land Surface Models (LSM) for global scale applications. The method consists in applying a data assimilation approach, the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) algorithm, to correct the Manning roughness coefficients of the ISBA-TRIP Continental Hydrologic System. Indeed, parameters such as the Manning coefficient, used within such models to describe water basin characteristics, are generally derived from geomorphological relationships, which might have locally significant errors. The current study focuses on the Niger basin, a trans-boundary river, which is the main source of fresh water for all the riparian countries. In addition, geopolitical issues in this region can restrict the exchange of hydrological data, so that SWOT should help improve this situation by making hydrological data freely available. In a previous study, the model was first evaluated against in-situ and satellite derived data sets within the framework of the international African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project. Since the SWOT observations are not available yet and also to assess the proposed assimilation method, the study is carried out under the framework of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE). It is assumed that modeling errors are only due to uncertainties in the Manning coefficient. The true Manning coefficients are then supposed to be known and are used to generate synthetic SWOT observations over the period 2002–2003. The impact of the assimilation system on the Niger basin hydrological cycle is then quantified. The optimization of the Manning coefficient using the EKF algorithm over an 18 month period leads to a significant improvement of the river water levels. The relative bias of the water level is globally improved (a 30% reduction). The relative bias of the Manning coefficient is also reduced (40% reduction) and it converges towards an optimal value despite potential problems related to equifinality. Discharge is also improved by the assimilation, but to a lesser extent than for the water levels (7%). Moreover, the method allows a better prediction of the occurrence and intensity of flood events in the inner delta and shows skill in simulating the maxima and minima of water storage anomalies in several continental reservoirs, especially the groundwater and the aquifer reservoirs. Results obtained in this preliminary study demonstrate SWOT potential for global hydrologic modeling, especially to improve model parameters.

Description: The patterns and implications of diurnal variations in d-excess of plant water, shallow soil water and air moisture Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 4433-4476, 2014 Author(s): L. Zhao, L. Wang, H. Xiao, G. Cheng, Y. Ruan, M. Zhou, and F. Wang Deuterium excess (d-excess) of air moisture is traditionally considered as a conservative tracer of oceanic evaporation conditions. Recent studies challenge this view and emphasize the importance of vegetation activity in controlling the dynamics of air moisture d-excess. However direct field observations supporting the role of vegetation in d-excess variations is not well documented. In this study, we quantified d-excess of air moisture, leaf and xylem water of multiple dominant species as well as shallow soil water (5 and 10 cm) at hourly interval during three extensive field campaigns at two climatically different locations within the Heihe River Basin. The results showed that with the increase of temperature ( T ) and decrease of relative humidity (RH), the δD-δ 18 O plots of leaf water, xylem water and shallow soil water deviated gradually from their corresponding local meteoric water line. There were significant differences in d-excess values among different water pools at all the study sites. The most positive d-excess values were found in air moisture (9.3‰) and the most negative d-excess values (−85.6‰) were found in leaf water. The d-excess values of air moisture ( d moisture ) and leaf water ( d leaf ) during the sunny days, and shallow soil water ( d soil ) during the first sunny day after rain event showed strong diurnal patterns. There were significantly positive relationships between d leaf and RH and negative relationships between d moisture and RH. The correlations of d leaf and d moisture with T were opposite to their relationships with RH. In addition, we found the opposite diurnal variations for d leaf and d moisture during the sunny day, and for d leaf during the sunny days, and shallow soil water d soil and d moisture during the first sunny day after rain event. Significant negative relationships were found between d leaf and d moisture in all the sites during the sunny day. Our results provide direct evidence that d moisture of the surface air at continental locations can be significantly altered by local processes, especially plant transpiration during the sunny days. The role of shallow soil water on d moisture is generally much smaller but could be large at the sunny day right after rainfall events.

Description: Large scale 3-D modeling by integration of resistivity models and borehole data through inversion Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 1461-1492, 2014 Author(s): N. Foged, P. A. Marker, A. V. Christansen, P. Bauer-Gottwein, F. Jørgensen, A.-S. Høyer, and E. Auken We present an automatic method for parameterization of a 3-D model of the subsurface, integrating lithological information from boreholes with resistivity models through an inverse optimization, with the objective of further detailing for geological models or as direct input to groundwater models. The parameter of interest is the clay fraction, expressed as the relative length of clay-units in a depth interval. The clay fraction is obtained from lithological logs and the clay fraction from the resistivity is obtained by establishing a simple petrophysical relationship, a translator function, between resistivity and the clay fraction. Through inversion we use the lithological data and the resistivity data to determine the optimum spatially distributed translator function. Applying the translator function we get a 3-D clay fraction model, which holds information from the resistivity dataset and the borehole dataset in one variable. Finally, we use k means clustering to generate a 3-D model of the subsurface structures. We apply the concept to the Norsminde survey in Denmark integrating approximately 700 boreholes and more than 100 000 resistivity models from an airborne survey in the parameterization of the 3-D model covering 156 km 2 . The final five-cluster 3-D model differentiates between clay materials and different high resistive materials from information held in resistivity model and borehole observations respectively.

Description: Climate change impacts on river discharge in West Africa: a review Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 2483-2514, 2014 Author(s): P. Roudier, A. Ducharne, and L. Feyen This review summarizes the impacts of climate change on runoff in West Africa, assesses the uncertainty in the projections and describes future research needs for the region. To do so, we constitute a meta-database made of 19 studies and 301 future runoff change values. The future tendency in streamflow developments is overall very uncertain (median of the 301 points is 0% and mean +5.2%), except for (i) the Gambia River which exhibits a significant negative change (median = −4.5%) and (ii) the Sassandra and the Niger Rivers where the change is much more positive (+14.4 and +6.1%). A correlation analysis revealed that runoff changes are tightly linked to changes in rainfall ( R = 0.49), and to a smaller extent also to changes in PET. Other parameters than climate such as the carbon effect on plant water efficiency, land use dynamics or water withdrawals could also significantly impact on runoff, but they generally do not offset the effects of climate change. In view of the potential changes, the large uncertainty therein, and the high vulnerability of the region to such changes, there is an urgent need for integrated studies that quantify the potential effects of these processes on water resources in West Africa. We especially underline the lack of information concerning projections of future floods and droughts, and of inter-annual fluctuations in streamflows.

Description: Modelling runoff from a Himalayan debris-covered glacier Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 2441-2482, 2014 Author(s): K. Fujita and A. Sakai Although the processes by which glacial debris-mantles alter the melting of glacier ice have been well studied, the mass balance and runoff patterns of Himalayan debris-covered glaciers and the response of these factors to climate change are not well understood. Many previous studies have addressed mechanisms of ice melt under debris mantles by applying multiplicative parameters derived from field experiments, and other studies have calculated the details of heat conduction through the debris layer. However, those approaches cannot be applied at catchment scales because debris distributions are heterogeneous and difficult to measure. Here, we establish a runoff model for a Himalayan debris-covered glacier in which the spatial distribution of the thermal properties of the debris mantle is estimated from remotely sensed multi-temporal data. We validated the model for the Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake–Trambau Glacier basin in the Nepal Himalaya, using hydro-meteorological observations obtained for a 3.5 yr period (1993–1996). We calculated long-term averages of runoff components for the period 1980–2007 using gridded reanalysis datasets. Our calculations suggest that excess meltwater from the debris-covered area contributes significantly to the total runoff, mainly because of its location at lower elevations. Uncertainties in runoff values due to estimations of the thermal properties and albedo of the debris-covered surface were assessed to be approximately 8% of the runoff from the debris-covered area. We evaluated the sensitivities of runoff components to changes in air temperature and precipitation. As expected, warmer air temperatures increase the total runoff by increasing the melting rate; however, increased precipitation slightly reduces the total runoff, as ice melting is suppressed by the increased snow cover and associated high albedo. The response of total runoff to changing precipitation is complex because of the different responses of individual components (glacier, debris, and ice-free terrain) to precipitation levels. The impact of air temperature on inter-annual variability is 23 times greater than that of precipitation.

Description: A baseline probabilistic drought forecasting framework using Standardized Soil Moisture Index: application to the 2012 United States drought Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 1947-1966, 2014 Author(s): A. AghaKouchak The 2012 drought was one of the most extensive drought events in half a century, resulting in billions of US dollars in economic loss in the US, and substantial indirect impacts on global food security and commodity prices. An important feature of the 2012 drought was rapid development and intensification in late spring/early summer, a critical time for crop development and investment planning. Drought prediction remains a major challenge because dynamical precipitation forecasts are highly uncertain, and their prediction skill is low. Using a probabilistic framework for drought forecasting based on the persistence property of accumulated soil moisture, this paper shows that the US drought of summer 2012 was predictable several months in advance. The presented drought forecasting framework provides the probability occurrence of drought based on climatology and near-past observations of soil moisture. Our results indicate that soil moisture exhibits higher persistence than precipitation, and hence improves drought predictability.

Description: Characterizing coarse-resolution watershed soil moisture heterogeneity using fine-scale simulations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 1967-2009, 2014 Author(s): W. J. Riley and C. Shen Watershed-scale hydrological and biogeochemical models are usually discretized at resolutions coarser than where significant heterogeneities in topographic, subsurface abiotic and biotic, and surface vegetation exist. Here we report on a method to use fine-resolution (220 m gridcells) hydrological model predictions to build reduced order models of the statistical properties of near-surface soil moisture at coarse-resolution (2 5 times coarser; ~7 km). We applied a watershed-scale hydrological model (PAWS+CLM) that has been previously tested in several watersheds and developed simple, relatively accurate ( R 2 ~ 0.7–0.8) reduced order models for the relationship between mean and higher-order moments of near-surface soil moisture during the non-frozen periods over five years. When applied to transient predictions, soil moisture variance and skewness were relatively accurately predicted ( R 2 ~ 0.7–0.8), while the kurtosis was less accurately predicted ( R 2 ~ 0.5). We tested sixteen system attributes hypothesized to explain the negative relationship between soil moisture mean and variance toward the wetter end of the distribution and found that, in the model, 59% of the variance of this relationship can be explained by the elevation gradient convolved with mean evapotranspiration. We did not find significant relationships between the time rate of change of soil moisture variance and covariances between mean moisture and evapotranspiration, drainage, or soil properties, as has been reported in other modeling studies. As seen in previous observational studies, the predicted soil moisture skewness was predominantly positive and negative in drier and wetter regions, respectively. In individual coarse-resolution gridcells, the transition between positive and negative skewness occurred at a mean soil moisture of ~0.25–0.3. The type of numerical modeling experiments presented here can improve understanding of the causes of soil moisture heterogeneity across scales, and inform the types of observations required to more accurately represent unresolved spatial heterogeneity in regional and global hydrological models.

Description: Hydrological, ecological, land use, economic, and sociocultural evidence for resilience of traditional irrigation communities in New Mexico, USA Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 1821-1869, 2014 Author(s): A. Fernald, S. Guldan, K. Boykin, A. Cibils, M. Gonzales, B. H. Hurd, S. Lopez, C. G. Ochoa, M. Ortiz, J. Rivera, S. Rodriguez, and C. M. Steele Southwestern US irrigated landscapes are facing upheaval due to climate change-induced water scarcity and economic change-induced land use conversion. Clues to community longevity are found in the traditionally irrigated valleys of northern New Mexico. Human systems have interacted with hydrologic processes over the last 400 yr in river fed irrigated valleys to create linked systems. In this study, we asked if concurrent data from multiple disciplines show that human adapted hydrologic and socioeconomic systems have created conditions for resilience. We identify and describe several areas of resilience: hydrological, ecological, land use, economic, and sociocultural. We found that there are multiple hydrologic benefits of the water seepage from the traditional irrigation systems; it recharges groundwater that recharges rivers, supports threatened biodiversity by maintaining riparian vegetation, and ameliorates impacts of climate change by prolonging streamflow hydrographs. In terms of land use and economics, place-based adaptability manifests itself in transformations of irrigation infrastructure and specific animal and crop systems; as grazing has diminished over time on public land watersheds, it has increased on irrigated valley pastures while outside income allows irrigators to retain their land. Sociocultural evidence shows that traditional local knowledge about the hydrosocial cycle of acequia operations is a key factor in acequia resilience. When irrigators are confronted with unexpected disturbances or changing climate that affect water supply, they adapt specific practices while maintaining community cohesion. Our ongoing work will quantify the multiple disciplinary components of these systems, translate them into a common language of causal loop diagrams, and model future scenarios to identify thresholds and tipping points of sustainability. Early indications are that these systems are not immune to upheaval, but have astonishing resilience.

Description: The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): application to the Hupsel Brook catchment and Cabauw polder Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 2091-2148, 2014 Author(s): C. C. Brauer, P. J. J. F. Torfs, A. J. Teuling, and R. Uijlenhoet The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS) is a new parametric (conceptual) rainfall-runoff model which accounts explicitly for processes that are important in lowland areas, such as groundwater-unsaturated zone coupling, wetness-dependent flowroutes, groundwater–surface water feedbacks, and seepage and surface water supply (see companion paper by Brauer et al., 2014). Lowland catchments can be divided into slightly sloping, freely draining catchments and flat polders with controlled water levels. Here, we apply WALRUS to two contrasting Dutch catchments: the Hupsel Brook catchment and Cabauw polder. In both catchments, WALRUS performs well: Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies obtained after calibration on one year of discharge observations are 0.87 for the Hupsel Brook catchment and 0.83 for the Cabauw polder, with values of 0.74 and 0.76 for validation. The model also performs well during floods and droughts and can forecast the effect of control operations. Through the dynamic division between quick and slow flowroutes controlled by a wetness index, temporal and spatial variability in groundwater depths can be accounted for, which results in adequate simulation of discharge peaks as well as low flows. The performance of WALRUS is most sensitive to the parameter controlling the wetness index and the groundwater reservoir constant, and to a lesser extent to the quickflow reservoir constant. The effects of these three parameters can be identified in the discharge time series, which indicates that the model is not overparameterised (parsimonious). Forcing uncertainty was found to have a larger effect on modelled discharge than parameter uncertainty and uncertainty in initial conditions.

Description: Technical Note: Erosion processes in black-marls at the millimetre scale, the input of an analogical model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 2263-2275, 2014 Author(s): J. Bechet, J. Duc, M. Jaboyedoff, A. Loye, and N. Mathys An analogical model of badland soil has been created in the aim to study the erosion process at the millimetric scale when exposed to rainfall. The analogical model is composed of a sample of black-marls soil, coming from a badlands area of southern of France. It is holding in a 0.5 m 2 metal case. For the experiment the model has been exposed to a natural rainfall with an angle of 45°. It was monitored by a terrestrial laser scanner (TLS). This experiment allowed identifying several processes as micro-landslides, swelling of the clay content in the black-marls, the compression and creeping of the ground. All these processes have been studied and identified at the millimetre scale.

Description: Using hydro-climatic and edaphic similarity to enhance soil moisture prediction Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 2321-2353, 2014 Author(s): E. J. Coopersmith, B. S. Minsker, and M. Sivapalan Estimating soil moisture typically involves calibrating models to sparse networks of in~situ sensors, which introduces considerable error in locations where sensors are not available. We address this issue by calibrating parameters of a parsimonious soil moisture model, which requires only antecedent precipitation information, at gauged locations and then extrapolating these values to ungauged locations via a hydro-climatic classification system. Fifteen sites within the soil climate analysis network (SCAN) containing multi-year time series data for precipitation and soil moisture are used to calibrate the model. By calibrating at one of these fifteen sites and validating at another, we observe that the best results are obtained where calibration and validation occur within the same hydro-climatic class. Additionally, soil texture data are tested for their importance in improving predictions between calibration and validation sites. Results have the largest errors when calibration/validation pairs differ hydro-climatically and edaphically, improve when one of these two characteristics are aligned, and are strongest when the calibration and validation sites are hydro-climatically and edaphically similar. These findings indicate considerable promise for improving soil moisture estimation in ungauged locations by considering these similarities.

Description: Climate regime and soil storage capacity interact to effect evapotranspiration in western United States mountain catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 2277-2319, 2014 Author(s): E. S. Garcia and C. L. Tague In the winter-wet, summer-dry forests of the western United States (US), total annual evapotranspiration (ET) is largely a function of three separate but interacting properties: (1) climate, especially magnitude of precipitation, its partitioning into rain or snow, and snowmelt timing; (2) soil characteristics, including soil water holding capacity and rates of drainage; and (3) the total biomass where larger, more abundant vegetation is directly proportional to greater ET. Understanding how these controls influence ET in Mediterranean mountain environments is complicated by shifts between water and energy limitations both within the year and between years. We use a physically based process model to evaluate the strength of climate controls and soil properties in predicting ET in three snow-dominated, mountainous catchments in the western US. As we expect, statistical analysis shows that annual precipitation is a primary control of annual ET across all catchments. However, secondary climate controls vary across catchments. Further, the sensitivity of annual ET to precipitation and other climatic controls varies with soil characteristics. In the drier, more snow-dominated catchments ET is also controlled by spring temperature through its influence on the timing of snowmelt and the synchronicity between seasonal water availability and demand. In wetter catchments that receive a large fraction of winter precipitation as rainfall, the sensitivity to ET is also strongly influenced by soil water holding capacity. We show that in all catchments, soil characteristics affect the sensitivity of annual ET to climatic drivers. Estimates of annual ET become more sensitive to climatic drivers at low soil water holding capacities in the catchments with the stronger decoupling between precipitation and growing season demands.

Description: Progress in DGVMs: a comment on "Impacts of trait variation through observed trait–climate relationships on performance of an Earth system model: a conceptual analysis" by Verheijen et al. (2013) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, GetVolumeNumber_ERROR, 4483-4492, GetVolumeYear_ERROR Author(s): S. I. Higgins, L. Langan, and S. Scheiter No abstract available.

Description: Monitoring of riparian vegetation response to flood disturbances using terrestrial photography Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 3359-3385, 2014 Author(s): K. Džubáková, P. Molnar, K. Schindler, and M. Trizna The distribution of riparian vegetation on river floodplains is strongly impacted by floods. In this study we use a new setup with high resolution ground-based cameras in an Alpine gravel bed braided river to quantify the immediate response of riparian vegetation to flood disturbance with the use of vegetation indices. Five largest floods with return periods between 1.4 and 20.1 years in the period 2008–2011 in the Maggia River were used to evaluate patterns of vegetation response in three distinct floodplain units (main bar, secondary bar, transitional zone) and to compare seven vegetation indices. The results show both negative (damage) and positive (enhancement) response of vegetation in a short period following floods, with a selective impact based on the hydrogeomorphological setting and the intensity of the flood forcing. The spatial distribution of vegetation damage provides a coherent picture of floodplain response in the three floodplain units with different flood stress. We show that the tested vegetation indices generally agree on the direction of predicted change and its spatial distribution. The average disagreement between indices was in the range 14.4–24.9% despite the complex environment, i.e. highly variable surface wetness, high gravel reflectance, extensive water–soil–vegetation contact zones. We conclude that immediate vegetation response to flood disturbance may be effectively monitored by terrestrial photography with potential for long-term assessment in river management and restoration projects.

Description: A geohydrologic framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to climate warming in the Pacific Northwest, USA Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 3315-3357, 2014 Author(s): M. Safeeq, G. E. Grant, S. L. Lewis, M. G. Kramer, and B. Staab Summer streamflows in the Pacific Northwest are largely derived from melting snow and groundwater discharge. As the climate warms, diminishing snowpack and earlier snowmelt will cause reductions in summer streamflow. Most assessments of the impacts of a changing climate to streamflow make use of downscaled temperature and precipitation projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs). Projected climate simulations from these GCMs are often too coarse for planning purposes, as they do not capture smaller scale topographic controls and other important watershed processes. This uncertainty is further amplified when downscaled climate predictions are coupled to macroscale hydrologic models that fail to capture streamflow contributions from deep groundwater. Deep aquifers play an important role in mediating streamflow response to climate change, and groundwater needs to be explicitly incorporated into sensitivity assessments. Here we develop and apply an analytical framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to a change in the timing and magnitude of recharge in a spatially-explicit fashion. Two patterns emerge from this analysis: first, areas with high streamflow sensitivity also have higher summer streamflows as compared to low sensitivity areas. Second, the level of sensitivity and spatial extent of highly sensitive areas diminishes over time as the summer progresses. Results of this analysis point to a robust, practical, and scalable approach that can help assess risk at the landscape scale, complement the downscaling approach, be applied to any climate scenario of interest, and provide a framework to assist land and water managers adapt to an uncertain and potentially challenging future.

Description: Simulation of rainfall time-series from different climatic regions using the Direct Sampling technique Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 3213-3247, 2014 Author(s): F. Oriani, J. Straubhaar, P. Renard, and G. Mariethoz The Direct Sampling technique, belonging to the family of multiple-point statistics, is proposed as a non-parametric alternative to the classical autoregressive and Markov-chain based models for daily rainfall time-series simulation. The algorithm makes use of the patterns contained inside the training image (the past rainfall record) to reproduce the complexity of the signal without inferring its prior statistical model: the time-series is simulated by sampling the training dataset where a sufficiently similar neighborhood exists. The advantage of this approach is the capability of simulating complex statistical relations by respecting the similarity of the patterns at different scales. The technique is applied to daily rainfall records from different climate settings, using a standard setup and without performing any optimization of the parameters. The results show that the overall statistics as well as the dry/wet spells patterns are simulated accurately. Also the extremes at the higher temporal scale are reproduced exhaustively, reducing the well known problem of over-dispersion.

Description: Vertical hydraulic conductivity of a clayey-silt aquitard: accelerated fluid flow in a centrifuge permeameter compared with in situ conditions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 3155-3212, 2014 Author(s): W. A. Timms, R. Crane, D. J. Anderson, S. Bouzalakos, M. Whelan, D. McGeeney, P. F. Rahman, A. Guinea, and R. I. Acworth Evaluating the possibility of leakage through low permeability geological strata is critically important for sustainable water supplies, extraction of fuels from strata such as coal beds, and confinement of waste within the earth. Characterizing low or negligible flow rates and transport of solutes can require impractically long periods of field or laboratory testing, but is necessary for evaluations over regional areas and over multi-decadal timescales. The current work reports a custom designed centrifuge permeameter (CP) system, which can provide relatively rapid and reliable hydraulic conductivity ( K ) measurement compared to column permeameter tests at standard gravity (1 g ). Linear fluid velocity through a low K porous sample is linearly related to g -level during a CP flight unless consolidation or geochemical reactions occur. The CP module is designed to fit within a standard 2 m diameter, geotechnical centrifuge with a capacity for sample dimensions of 30 to 100 mm diameter and 30 to 200 mm in length. At maximum RPM the resultant centrifugal force is equivalent to 550 g at base of sample or a total stress of ~2 MPa. K is calculated by measuring influent and effluent volumes. A custom designed mounting system allows minimal disturbance of drill core samples and a centrifugal force that represents realistic in situ stress conditions is applied. Formation fluids were used as influent to limit any shrink-swell phenomena which may alter the resultant K value. Vertical hydraulic conductivity ( K v ) results from CP testing of core from the sites in the same clayey silt formation varied (10 −7 to 10 −9 m s −1 , n = 14) but higher than 1 g column permeameter tests of adjacent core using deionized water (10 −9 to 10 −11 m s −1 , n = 7). Results at one site were similar to in situ K v values (3 × 10 −9 m s −1 ) from pore pressure responses within a 30 m clayey sequence in a homogenous area of the formation. K v sensitivity to sample heterogeneity was observed, and anomalous flow via preferential pathways could be readily identified. Results demonstrate the utility of centrifuge testing for measuring minimum K values that can contribute to assessments of geological formations at large scale. The importance of using realistic stress conditions and influent geochemistry during hydraulic testing is also demonstrated.

Description: HESS Opinions: Functional units: a novel framework to explore the link between spatial organization and hydrological functioning of intermediate scale catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 3249-3313, 2014 Author(s): E. Zehe, U. Ehret, L. Pfister, T. Blume, B. Schröder, M. Westhoff, C. Jackisch, S. J. Schymanski, M. Weiler, K. Schulz, N. Allroggen, J. Tronicke, P. Dietrich, U. Scherer, J. Eccard, V. Wulfmeyer, and A. Kleidon This opinion paper proposes a novel framework for exploring how spatial organization alongside with spatial heterogeneity controls functioning of intermediate scale catchments of organized complexity. Key idea is that spatial organization in landscapes implies that functioning of intermediate scale catchments is controlled by a hierarchy of functional units: hillslope scale lead topologies and embedded elementary functional units (EFUs). We argue that similar soils and vegetation communities and thus also soil structures "co-developed" within EFUs in an adaptive, self-organizing manner as they have been exposed to similar flows of energy, water and nutrients from the past to the present. Class members of the same EFU (class) are thus deemed to belong to the same ensemble with respect to controls of the energy balance and related vertical flows of capillary bounded soil water and heat. Class members of superordinate lead topologies are characterized by the same spatially organized arrangement of EFUs along the gradient driving lateral flows of free water as well as a similar surface and bedrock topography. We hence postulate that they belong to the same ensemble with respect to controls on rainfall runoff transformation and related vertical and lateral fluxes of free water. We expect class members of these functional units to have a distinct way how their architecture controls the interplay of state dynamics and integral flows, which is typical for all members of one class but dissimilar among the classes. This implies that we might infer on the typical dynamic behavior of the most important classes of EFU and lead topologies in a catchment, by thoroughly characterizing a few members of each class. A major asset of the proposed framework, which steps beyond the concept of hydrological response units, is that it can be tested experimentally. In this respect, we reflect on suitable strategies based on stratified observations drawing from process hydrology, soil physics, geophysics, ecology and remote sensing which are currently conducted in replicates of candidate functional units in the Attert basin (Luxembourg), to search for typical and similar functional and structural characteristics. A second asset of this framework is that it blueprints a way towards a structurally more adequate model concept for water and energy cycles in intermediate scale catchments, which balances necessary complexity with falsifiability. This is because EFU and lead topologies are deemed to mark a hierarchy of "scale breaks" where simplicity with respect to the energy balance and stream flow generation emerges from spatially organized process-structure interactions. This offers the opportunity for simplified descriptions of these processes that are nevertheless physically and thermodynamically consistent. In this respect we reflect on a candidate model structure that (a) may accommodate distributed observations of states and especially terrestrial controls on driving gradients to constrain the space of feasible model structures and (b) allows testing the possible added value of organizing principles to understand the role of spatial organization from an optimality perspective.

Description: Socio-hydrologic modeling to understand and mediate the competition for water between agriculture development and environmental health: Murrumbidgee River Basin, Australia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 3387-3435, 2014 Author(s): T. H. M. van Emmerik, Z. Li, M. Sivapalan, S. Pande, J. Kandasamy, H. H. G. Savenije, A. Chanan, and S. Vigneswaran Competition for water between humans and ecosystems is set to become a flash point in the coming decades in many parts of the world. An entirely new and comprehensive quantitative framework is needed to establish a holistic understanding of that competition, thereby enabling the development of effective mediation strategies. This paper presents a modeling study centered on the Murrumbidgee River Basin (MRB). The MRB has witnessed a unique system dynamics over the last 100 years as a result of interactions between patterns of water management and climate driven hydrological variability. Data analysis has revealed a pendulum swing between agricultural development and restoration of environmental health and ecosystem services over different stages of basin scale water resource development. A parsimonious, stylized, quasi-distributed coupled socio-hydrologic system model that simulates the two-way coupling between human and hydrological systems of the MRB is used to mimic dominant features of the pendulum swing. The model consists of coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations that describe the interaction between five state variables that govern the co-evolution: reservoir storage, irrigated area, human population, ecosystem health, and a measure of environmental awareness. The model simulations track the propagation of the external climatic and socio-economic drivers through this coupled, complex system to the emergence of the pendulum swing. The model results point to a competition between human "productive" and environmental "restorative" forces that underpin the pendulum swing. Both the forces are endogenous, i.e., generated by the system dynamics in response to external drivers and mediated by humans through technology change and environmental awareness, respectively. We propose this as a generalizable modeling framework for coupled human hydrological systems that is potentially transferable to systems in different climatic and socio-economic settings.

Description: Negative trade-off between changes in vegetation water use and infiltration recovery after reforesting degraded pasture land in the Nepalese Lesser Himalaya Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 3437-3479, 2014 Author(s): C. P. Ghimire, L. A. Bruijnzeel, M. W. Lubczynski, and M. Bonell This work investigates the trade-off between increases in vegetation water use and rain water infiltration afforded by soil improvement after reforesting severely degraded grassland in the Lesser Himalaya of Central Nepal. The hillslope hydrological functioning (surface- and sub-soil hydraulic conductivities and overland flow generation) and the evapotranspiration (rainfall interception and transpiration) of the following contrasting vegetation types were quantified and examined in detail: (i) a nearly undisturbed natural broad-leaved forest; (ii) a mature, intensively-used pine plantation; and (iii) a highly degraded pasture. Planting pines increased vegetation water use relative to the pasture and natural forest situation by 355 and 55 mm year −1 , respectively. On balance, the limited amount of extra infiltration afforded by the pine plantation relative to the pasture (only 90 mm year −1 due to continued soil degradation associated with regular harvesting of litter and understory vegetation in the plantation) proved insufficient to compensate the higher water use of the pines. As such, observed declines in dry season flows in the study area are thought to reflect the higher water use of the pines although the effect could be moderated by better forest and soil management promoting infiltration. In contrast, a comparison of the water use of the natural forest and degraded pasture suggests that replacing the latter by (mature) broad-leaved forest would (ultimately) have a near-neutral effect on dry season flows as the approximate gains in infiltration and evaporative losses were very similar (ca. 300 m year −1 each). The results of the present study underscore the need for proper forest management for optimum hydrological functioning as well as the importance of protecting the remaining natural forests in the region.

Description: Robust global sensitivity analysis of a river management model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 3481-3503, 2014 Author(s): L. J. M. Peeters, G. M. Podger, T. Smith, T. Pickett, R. Bark, and S. M. Cuddy The simulation of routing and distribution of water through a regulated river system with a river management model will quickly results in complex and non-linear model behaviour. A robust sensitivity analysis increases the transparency of the model and provide both the modeller and the system manager with better understanding and insight on how the model simulates reality and management operations. In this study, a robust, density-based sensitivity analysis, developed by Plischke et al. (2013), is applied to an eWater Source river management model. The sensitivity analysis is extended to not only account for main but also for interaction effects and is able to identify major linear effects as well as subtle minor and non-linear effects. The case study is an idealised river management model representing typical conditions of the Southern Murray–Darling Basin in Australia for which the sensitivity of a variety of model outcomes to variations in the driving forces, inflow to the system, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, is examined. The model outcomes are most sensitive to the inflow to the system, but the sensitivity analysis identified minor effects of potential evapotranspiration as well as non-linear interaction effects between inflow and potential evapotranspiration.

Description: Multiobjective sensitivity analysis and optimization of a distributed hydrologic model MOBIDIC Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 3505-3539, 2014 Author(s): J. Yang, F. Castelli, and Y. Chen Calibration of distributed hydrologic models usually involves how to deal with the large number of distributed parameters and optimization problems with multiple but often conflicting objectives which arise in a natural fashion. This study presents a multiobjective sensitivity and optimization approach to handle these problems for a distributed hydrologic model MOBIDIC, which combines two sensitivity analysis techniques (Morris method and State Dependent Parameter method) with a multiobjective optimization (MOO) approach ϵ-NSGAII. This approach was implemented to calibrate MOBIDIC with its application to the Davidson watershed, North Carolina with three objective functions, i.e., standardized root mean square error of logarithmic transformed discharge, water balance index, and mean absolute error of logarithmic transformed flow duration curve, and its results were compared with those with a single objective optimization (SOO) with the traditional Nelder–Mead Simplex algorithm used in MOBIDIC by taking the objective function as the Euclidean norm of these three objectives. Results show: (1) the two sensitivity analysis techniques are effective and efficient to determine the sensitive processes and insensitive parameters: surface runoff and evaporation are very sensitive processes to all three objective functions, while groundwater recession and soil hydraulic conductivity are not sensitive and were excluded in the optimization; (2) both MOO and SOO lead to acceptable simulations, e.g., for MOO, average Nash–Sutcliffe is 0.75 in the calibration period and 0.70 in the validation period; (3) evaporation and surface runoff shows similar importance to watershed water balance while the contribution of baseflow can be ignored; (4) compared to SOO which was dependent of initial starting location, MOO provides more insight on parameter sensitivity and conflicting characteristics of these objective functions. Multiobjective sensitivity analysis and optimization provides an alternative way for future MOBIDIC modelling.

Description: Soil erosion by snow gliding – a first quantification attempt in a sub-alpine area, Switzerland Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 3675-3710, 2014 Author(s): K. Meusburger, G. Leitinger, L. Mabit, M. H. Mueller, A. Walter, and C. Alewell Snow processes might be one important driver of soil erosion in Alpine grasslands and thus the unknown variable when erosion modelling is attempted. The aim of this study is to assess the importance of snow gliding as soil erosion agent for four different land use/land cover types in a sub-alpine area in Switzerland. We used three different approaches to estimate soil erosion rates: sediment yield measurements in snow glide deposits, the fallout radionuclide 137 Cs, and modelling with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). The RUSLE model is suitable to estimate soil loss by water erosion, while the 137 Cs method integrates soil loss due to all erosion agents involved. Thus, we hypothesise that the soil erosion rates determined with the 137 Cs method are higher and that the observed discrepancy between the soil erosion rate of RUSLE and the 137 Cs method is related to snow gliding and sediment concentrations in the snow glide deposits. Cumulative snow glide distance was measured for the sites in the winter 2009/10 and modelled for the surrounding area with the Spatial Snow Glide Model (SSGM). Measured snow glide distance ranged from 2 to 189 cm, with lower values at the north facing slopes. We observed a reduction of snow glide distance with increasing surface roughness of the vegetation, which is important information with respect to conservation planning and expected land use changes in the Alps. Our hypothesis was confirmed: the difference of RUSLE and 137 Cs erosion rates was related to the measured snow glide distance ( R 2 = 0.64; p 〈 0.005) and snow sediment yields ( R 2 = 0.39; p = 0.13). A high difference (lower proportion of water erosion compared to total net erosion) was observed for high snow glide rates and vice versa. The SSGM reproduced the relative difference of the measured snow glide values under different land uses and land cover types. The resulting map highlighted the relevance of snow gliding for large parts of the investigated area. Based on these results, we conclude that snow gliding is a key process impacting soil erosion pattern and magnitude in sub-alpine areas with similar topographic and climatic conditions.

Description: Observed groundwater temperature response to recent climate change Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 3637-3673, 2014 Author(s): K. Menberg, P. Blum, B. L. Kurylyk, and P. Bayer Climate change is known to have a considerable influence on many components of the hydrological cycle. Yet, the implications for groundwater temperature, as an important driver for groundwater quality, thermal use and storage, are not yet comprehensively understood. Furthermore, few studies have examined the implications of climate change-induced groundwater temperature rise for groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Here, we examine the coupling of atmospheric and groundwater warming by employing stochastic and deterministic models. Firstly, several decades of temperature time-series are statistically analyzed with regard to abrupt climate regime shifts (CRS) in the long-term mean. The observed abrupt increases in shallow groundwater temperatures can be associated with preceding positive shifts in regional surface air temperatures, which are in turn linked to global air temperature changes. The temperature data are also analyzed with an analytical solution to the conduction-advection heat transfer equation to investigate how subsurface heat transfer processes control the propagation of the surface temperature signals into the subsurface. In three of the four monitoring wells, the predicted groundwater temperature increases driven by the regime shifts at the surface boundary condition generally concur with the observed groundwater temperature trends. Due to complex interactions at the ground surface and the heat capacity of the unsaturated zone, the thermal signals from distinct changes in air temperature are damped and delayed in the subsurface, causing a more gradual increase in groundwater temperatures. These signals can have a significant impact on large-scale groundwater temperatures in shallow and economically important aquifers. These findings demonstrate that shallow groundwater temperatures have responded rapidly to recent climate change and thus provide insight into the vulnerability of aquifers and groundwater-dependent ecosystems to future climate change.

Description: Quantifying river form variations in the Mississippi Basin using remotely sensed imagery Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 3599-3636, 2014 Author(s): Z. F. Miller, T. M. Pavelsky, and G. H. Allen Geographic variations in river form are often estimated using the framework of downstream hydraulic geometry (DHG), which links spatial changes in discharge to channel width, depth, and velocity through power-law models. These empirical relationships are derived from limited in situ data and do not capture the full variability in channel form. Here, we present a dataset of 1.2 × 10 6 river widths in the Mississippi Basin measured from the Landsat-derived National Land Cover Dataset that characterizes width variability observationally. We construct DHG for the Mississippi drainage by linking DEM-estimated discharge values to each width measurement. Well-developed DHG exists over the entire Mississippi Basin, though individual sub-basins vary substantially from existing width-discharge scaling. Comparison of depth predictions from traditional depth–discharge relationships with a new model incorporating width into the DHG framework shows that including width improves depth estimates by, on average, 24%. Results suggest that channel geometry derived from remotely sensed imagery better characterizes variability in river form than do the assumptions of DHG.

Description: Chemical and U-Sr isotopic variations of stream and source waters at a small catchment scale (the Strengbach case; Vosges mountains; France) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 3541-3598, 2014 Author(s): M. C. Pierret, P. Stille, J. Prunier, D. Viville, and F. Chabaux This is the first comprehensive study dealing with major and trace element data as well as 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isotope and ( 234 U/ 238 U) activity ratios (AR) determined on the totality of springs and brooks of the Strengbach catchment. It shows that the small and more or less monolithic catchment drains different sources and streamlets with very different isotopic and geochemical signatures. Different parameters control the diversity of the source characteristics. Of importance is especially the hydrothermal overprint of the granitic bedrock, which was stronger for the granite from the northern than from the southern slope; also significant are the different meteoric alteration processes of the bedrock causing the formation of 0.5 to 9 m thick saprolite and above the formation of an up to 1 m thick soil system. These processes mainly account for springs and brooks from the northern slope having higher Ca/Na, Mg/Na, Sr/Na ratios but lower 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isotopic ratios than those from the southern slope. The chemical compositions of the source waters in the Strengbach catchment are only to a small extent the result of alteration of primary bedrock minerals and rather reflect dissolution/precipitation processes of secondary mineral phases like clay minerals. The ( 234 U/ 238 U) AR, however, are decoupled from the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isotope system and reflect to some extent the level of altitude of the source and, thus, the degree of alteration of the bedrock. The sources emerging at high altitudes have circulated through already weathered materials (saprolite and fractured rock depleted in 234 U) implying ( 234 U/ 238 U) AR 〈 1, which is uncommon for surface waters. Preferential flow paths along constant fractures in the bedrocks might explain the over time homogeneous U AR of the different spring waters. However, the geochemical and isotopic variations of stream waters at the outlet of the catchment are controlled by variable contributions of different springs depending on the hydrological conditions. It appears that the ( 234 U/ 238 U) AR is an appropriate very important tracer for studying and deciphering the contribution of the different source fluxes at the catchment scale because this unique geochemical parameter is different for each individual spring and at the same time remains unchanged for each of the springs with changing discharge and fluctuating hydrological conditions. This study further highlights the important impact of different and independent water pathways in fractured granite controlling the different geochemical and isotopic signatures of the waters.

Description: Hydroclimatic control of sediment and metal export from a rural catchment in Northwest Spain Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 3757-3786, 2014 Author(s): L. Palleiro, M. L. Rodríguez-Blanco, M. M. Taboada-Castro, and M. T. Taboada-Castro This paper examines sediment and metal (Al, Fe, Mn, Cu, and Zn) exportation at different time scales (annual, seasonal and event) during a three-year period (2005–2008) in the Mero River headwater, a rural catchment under humid temperate climate. Inter-annual differences were found both in annual loads and their distributions throughout the year. At annual scale, sediment and particulate metal loads followed the same trend as streamflow, while dissolved metals showed different patterns. Runoff events contributed to 63% of the total sediment load, whereas particulate and dissolved metal loads accounted for between 38–61 and 27–49% of the total load, respectively. Runoff events were characterized by high variability in sediment and metal loads, a few events representing a high percentage of the metal exported. Sediment loads were related to maximum and initial discharge. Particulate metal loads were highly correlated with sediment loads, runoff being the hydrological variable that best explains the load of these metals. Dissolved metal loads displayed different patterns. Dissolved Al, showed a great correlation with runoff, while dissolved Mn with maximum discharge.

Description: Identifying flood recharge and inter-aquifer connectivity using multiple isotopes in subtropical Australia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 3711-3756, 2014 Author(s): A. C. King, M. Raiber, D. I. Cendón, M. E. Cox, and S. E. Hollins An understanding of hydrological processes is vital for the sustainable management of groundwater resources, especially in areas where an aquifer interacts with surface water systems or where aquifer-interconnectivity occurs. This is particularly important in areas that are subjected to frequent drought/flood cycles, such as the Cressbrook Creek catchment in southeast Queensland, Australia. In order to understand the hydrological response to flooding and to identify inter-aquifer connectivity, multiple isotopes (δ 2 H, δ 18 O, 87 Sr/ 86 Sr, 3 H and 14 C) were used in this study in conjunction with a comprehensive hydrochemical assessment, based on data collected six months after severe flooding in 2011. The depleted stable isotope (δ 2 H and δ 18 O) signatures of the flood-generating rainfall were evident in surface water samples, indicating that these extreme events were a major source of recharge to the dam in the catchment headlands. Furthermore, stable isotopes confirmed that the flood generated significant recharge to the alluvium in the lower part of the catchment, particularly in areas where interactions between surface waters and groundwater were identified and where diffuse aquifer recharge is normally limited by a thick and relatively impermeable unsaturated zone. However, in the upper parts of the catchment where recharge generally occurs more rapidly due to the dominance of coarse-grained sediments in the unsaturated zone, the stable isotope signature of groundwater resembles the longer-term average rainfall values, highlighting that recharge was sourced from smaller rainfall events that occurred subsequent to the flood. Interactions between the bedrock aquifers and the alluvium were identified at several sites in the lower part of the catchment based on 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios, and supported by the hydrochemical assessment, which included the modelling of evaporation trends and saturation indices. The integrated approach used in this study facilitated the identification of hydrological processes over different spatial and temporal scales, and the method can be applied to other complex geological settings with variable climatic conditions.

Description: Runoff generation processes during the wet-up phase in a semi-arid basin in Iran Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 3787-3810, 2014 Author(s): H. Zarei, A. M. Akhondali, H. Mohammadzadeh, F. Radmanesh, and H. Laudon Understanding the hydrological processes in catchments is important for water resources management, particularly in semi-arid regions of the world. To contribute to this field, dominant runoff generation processes in a semi-arid basin (283 km 2 ) in Southwestern Iran were investigated using analysis of hydrometric data in combination with natural isotopic tracers through the wet-up phase of a rainy season. The analysis of seven rainfall–runoff events during the rainfall dominated period illustrated the role of antecedent base flow and cumulative rainfall for explaining the hydrological response. Three distinct storm events and the corresponding discharge were collected and analyzed for oxygen-18 and deuterium isotope composition. The results show that during the wetting-up cycle, the runoff ratio during storm events increased progressively from 1 to 10%. Higher event runoff ratios following catchment wet-up were shown to be directly linked to changes in soil moisture, which in turn controlled the runoff generation processes. In line with the hydrometric results, the two-component hydrograph separation using δ 18 O and δ 2 H demonstrated a clear connection to the antecedent wetness conditions. The results suggest that the runoff ratios during storms and the partitioning of event and pre-event water fractions are sensitive to the amount of catchment wet-up and could hence be strongly impacted by changes in the timing, duration and amount of precipitation in the future.

Description: Modeling suspended sediment sources and transport in the Ishikari River Basin, Japan using SPARROW Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 11037-11069, 2014 Author(s): W. Duan, B. He, K. Takara, P. Luo, D. Nover, and M. Hu It is important to understand the mechanisms that control suspended sediment (SS) fate and transport in rivers as high suspended sediment loads have significant impacts on riverine hydroecology. In this study, the watershed model SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes) was applied to estimate the sources and transport of SS in surface waters of the Ishikari River Basin (14 330 km 2 ), the largest watershed on Hokkaido Island, Japan. The final developed SPARROW model has four source variables (developing lands, forest lands, agricultural lands, and stream channels), three landscape delivery variables (slope, soil permeability, and precipitation), two in-stream loss coefficients including small stream (streams with drainage area 〈 200 km 2 ), large stream, and reservoir attenuation. The model was calibrated using measurements of SS from 31 monitoring sites of mixed spatial data on topography, soils and stream hydrography. Calibration results explain approximately 95.96% ( R 2 ) of the spatial variability in the natural logarithm mean annual SS flux (kg km −2 yr −1 ) and display relatively small prediction errors at the 31 monitoring stations. Results show that developing-land is associated with the largest sediment yield at around 1006.27 kg km −2 yr −1 , followed by agricultural-land (234.21 kg km −2 yr −1 ). Estimation of incremental yields shows that 35.11% comes from agricultural lands, 23.42% from forested lands, 22.91% from developing lands, and 18.56% from stream channels. The results of this study improve our understanding of sediments production and transportation in the Ishikari River Basin in general, which will benefit both the scientific and the management community in safeguarding water resources.

Description: Operational river discharge forecasting in poorly gauged basins: the Kavango River Basin case study Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 11071-11108, 2014 Author(s): P. Bauer-Gottwein, I. H. Jensen, R. Guzinski, G. K. T. Bredtoft, S. Hansen, and C. I. Michailovsky Operational probabilistic forecasts of river discharge are essential for effective water resources management. Many studies have addressed this topic using different approaches ranging from purely statistical black-box approaches to physically-based and distributed modelling schemes employing data assimilation techniques. However, few studies have attempted to develop operational probabilistic forecasting approaches for large and poorly gauged river basins. This study is funded by the European Space Agency under the TIGER-NET project. The objective of TIGER-NET is to develop open-source software tools to support integrated water resources management in Africa and to facilitate the use of satellite earth observation data in water management. We present an operational probabilistic forecasting approach which uses public-domain climate forcing data and a hydrologic–hydrodynamic model which is entirely based on open-source software. Data assimilation techniques are used to inform the forecasts with the latest available observations. Forecasts are produced in real time for lead times of 0 to 7 days. The operational probabilistic forecasts are evaluated using a selection of performance statistics and indicators. The forecasting system delivers competitive forecasts for the Kavango River, which are reliable and sharp. Results indicate that the value of the forecasts is greatest for intermediate lead times between 4 and 7 days.

Description: Uncertainty analysis of a spatially-explicit annual water-balance model: case study of the Cape Fear catchment, NC Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 11001-11036, 2014 Author(s): P. Hamel and A. J. Guswa There is an increasing demand for assessment of water provisioning ecosystem services. While simple models with low data and expertise requirements are attractive, their use as decision-aid tools should be supported by uncertainty characterization. We assessed the performance of the InVEST annual water yield model, a popular tool for ecosystem service assessment based on the Budyko framework. Our study involved the comparison of ten subcatchments in the Cape Fear watershed, NC, ranging in size and land use configuration. We analyzed the model sensitivity to the eco-hydrological parameters and the effect of extrapolating a lumped theory to a fully distributed model. Comparison of the model predictions with observations and with a lumped water balance model confirmed that the model is able to represent differences in land uses. Our results also emphasize the effect of climate input errors, especially annual precipitation, and errors in the eco-hydrological parameter Z , which are both comparable to the model structure uncertainties. In practice, our case study supports the use of the model for predicting land use change effect on water provisioning, although its use for identifying areas of high water yield will be influenced by precipitation errors. While the results are inherently local, analysis of the model structure suggests that many insights from this study will hold globally. Further work toward characterization of uncertainties in such simple models will help identify the regions and decision contexts where the model predictions may be used with confidence.

Description: Gravitational and capillary soil moisture dynamics for hillslope-resolving models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 7133-7168, 2014 Author(s): A. Castillo, F. Castelli, and D. Entekhabi Distributed and continuous catchment models are used to simulate water and energy balance and fluxes across varied topography and landscape. The landscape is discretized into plan computational elements at resolutions of 10 1 –10 3 m, and soil moisture is the hydrologic state variable. At the local scale, the vertical soil moisture dynamics link hydrologic fluxes and provide continuity in time. In catchment models these local scale processes are modeled using one-dimensional soil columns that are discretized into layers that are usually 10 −3 –10 −1 m in thickness. This creates a mismatch between the horizontal and vertical scales. For applications across large domains and in ensemble mode, this treatment can be a limiting factor due to its high computational demand. This study compares continuous multi-year simulations of soil moisture at the local scale using (i) a 1-D version of a distributed catchment hydrologic model; and (ii) a benchmark detailed soil water physics solver. The distributed model uses a single soil layer with a novel dual-pore structure, and employs linear parameterization of infiltration and some other fluxes. The detailed solver uses multiple soil layers and employs nonlinear soil physics relations to model flow in unsaturated soils. Using two sites with different climates (semiarid and sub-humid), it is shown that the efficient parameterization in the distributed model captures the essential dynamics of the detailed solver.

Description: On the skill of high frequency precipitation analyses Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 11605-11636, 2014 Author(s): A. Kann, I. Meirold-Mautner, F. Schmid, G. Kirchengast, and J. Fuchsberger The ability of radar-rain gauge merging algorithms to precisely analyse convective precipitation patterns is of high interest for many applications, e.g. hydrological modelling. However, due to drawbacks of methods like cross-validation and due to the limited availability of reference datasets on high temporal and spatial scale, an adequate validation is usually hardly possible, especially on an operational basis. The present study evaluates the skill of very high resolution and frequently updated precipitation analyses (rapid-INCA) by means of a very dense station network (WegenerNet), operated in a limited domain of the south-eastern parts of Austria (Styria). Based on case studies and a longer term validation over the convective season 2011, a general underestimation of the rapid-INCA precipitation amounts is shown, although the temporal and spatial variability of the errors is – by convective nature – high. The contribution of the rain gauge measurements to the analysis skill is crucial. However, the capability of the analyses to precisely assess the convective precipitation distribution predominantly depends on the representativeness of the stations under the prevalent convective condition.

Description: The question of Sudan: a hydroeconomic optimization model for the Sudanese Nile Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 11565-11603, 2014 Author(s): S. Satti, B. Zaitchik, and S. Siddiqui The effects of development and the uncertainty of a changing climate in East Africa pose myriad challenges for water managers along the Blue Nile. Sudan's large irrigation potential, hydroelectric dams, and prime location within the basin mean that Sudan's water management decisions will have great social, economic and political implications within the region. At the same time, Sudan's water use options are constrained by tradeoffs between upstream irrigation developments and downstream hydropower facilities as well as by the country's commitments under existing or future transboundary water sharing agreements. Here, we present a model that can be applied to evaluate optimal allocation of surface water resources to irrigation and hydropower in the Sudanese portion of the Blue Nile. Hydrologic inputs are combined with agronomic and economic inputs to formulate an optimization model within the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). A sensitivity analysis is performed by testing model response to a range of economic conditions and to changes in the volume and timing of hydrologic flows. Results indicate that changing hydroclimate inputs have the capacity to greatly influence the productivity of Sudan's water resources infrastructure. Results also show that the economically optimal volume of water consumption, and thus the importance of existing treaty constraints, is sensitive to the perceived value of agriculture relative to electricity as well as to changing hydrological conditions.

Description: Impacts of a changing climate on a century of extreme flood regime of northwest Australia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 11905-11943, 2014 Author(s): A. Rouillard, G. Skrzypek, S. Dogramaci, C. Turney, and P. F. Grierson Globally, there has been much recent effort to improve understanding of climate change-related shifts in rainfall patterns, variability and extremes. Comparatively little work have focused on how such shifts might be altering hydrological regimes within arid regional basins, where impacts are expected to be most significant. Here, we sought to identify the main hydroclimatic determinants of the strongly episodic flood regime of a large catchment in the semi-arid, subtropical northwest of Australia and to establish the background of hydrologic variability for the region over the last century. We used a monthly sequence of satellite images to quantify surface water expression on the Fortescue Marsh, the largest water feature of inland northwest Australia, from 1988 to 2012. We used this sequence together with instrumental rainfall data to build a multiple linear model and reconstruct monthly history of floods and droughts since 1912. We found that severe and intense regional rainfall events, as well as the sequence of recharge events both within and between years, determine surface water expression on the floodplain (i.e., total rainfall, number of rain days and carried-over inundated area; R 2 adj = 0.79; p value 〈 0.001, E RMSP = 56 km 2 ). The most severe inundation (~1000 km 2 ) over the last century was recorded in 2000. The Fortescue Marsh was completely dry for 32% of all years, for periods of up to four consecutive years. Extremely wet years (seven of the 100 years) caused the Marsh to remain inundated for up to 12 months; only 25% of years (9% of all months) had floods of greater than 300 km 2 . Duration, severity and frequency of inundations between 1999 and 2006 were above average and unprecedented when compared to the last century. While there is high inter-annual variability in the system, changes to the flooding regime over the last 20 years suggest that the wetland will become more persistent in response to increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events for the region, which in turn will likely impact on the structure and functioning of this highly specialized ecosystem.

Description: Data assimilation of GRACE terrestrial water storage estimates into a regional hydrological model of the Rhine River basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 11837-11882, 2014 Author(s): N. Tangdamrongsub, S. C. Steele-Dunne, B. C. Gunter, P. G. Ditmar, and A. H. Weerts The ability to estimate Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) realistically is essential for understanding past hydrological events and predicting future changes in the hydrological cycle. Inadequacies in model physics, uncertainty in model land parameters, and uncertainties in meteorological data commonly limit the accuracy of hydrological models in simulating TWS. In an effort to improve model performance, this study investigated the benefits of assimilating TWS estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) data into the OpenStreams-wflow model using an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) approach. The study area chosen was the Rhine River basin, which has both well-calibrated model parameters and high-quality forcing data that were used for experimentation and comparison. Four different case studies were examined which were designed to evaluate different levels of forcing data quality and resolution including those typical of other less well-monitored river basins. The results were validated using in situ groundwater and stream gauge data. The analysis showed a noticeable improvement in groundwater estimates when GRACE data were assimilated, with an overall improvement of up to 71% in correlation coefficient (from 0.31 to 0.53) and 35% in RMS error (from 8.4 to 5.4 cm) compared to the reference (ensemble open-loop) case. Only a slight overall improvement was observed in streamflow estimates when GRACE data were assimilated. Further analysis suggested that this is likely due to sporadic short terms, but sizeable, errors in the forcing data and the lack of sufficient constraints on the soil moisture component. Overall, the results highlight the benefit of assimilating GRACE data into hydrological models, particularly in data-sparse regions, while also providing insight on future refinements of the methodology.

Description: Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in the Nile Basin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 11945-11986, 2014 Author(s): C. Onyutha and P. Willems Spatio-temporal variability in annual and seasonal rainfall totals were assessed at 37 locations of the Nile Basin in Africa using quantile perturbation method. To get insight into the spatial difference in rainfall statistics, the stations were grouped based on the pattern of the long-term mean of monthly rainfall and that of temporal variability. To find the origin of the driving forces for the temporal variability in rainfall, correlation analyses were carried out using global monthly sea level pressure and surface temperature. Further investigations to support the obtained correlations were made using a total of 10 climate indices. It was possible to obtain 3 groups of stations; those within the equatorial region (A), Sudan and Ethiopia (B), and Egypt (C). For group A, annual rainfall was found to be below (above) the reference during the late 1940s to 1950s (1960s to mid 1980s). Conversely for groups B and C, the period 1930s to late 1950s (1960s to 1980s) was characterized by anomalies being above (below) the reference. For group A, significant linkages were found to Niño 3, Niño 3.4 and the North Atlantic and Indian Ocean drivers. Correlations of annual rainfall of group A with Pacific Ocean-related climate indices were inconclusive. With respect to the main wet seasons, the June to September rainfall of group B has strong connection to the influence from the Indian Ocean. For the March to May (October to February) rainfall of group A (C), possible links to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans were found.

Description: Spatial sensitivity analysis of snow cover data in a distributed rainfall–runoff model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 11987-12025, 2014 Author(s): T. Berezowski, J. Nossent, J. Chormański, and O. Batelaan As the availability of spatially distributed data sets for distributed rainfall–runoff modelling is strongly growing, more attention should be paid to the influence of the quality of the data on the calibration. While a lot of progress has been made on using distributed data in simulations of hydrological models, sensitivity of spatial data with respect to model results is not well understood. In this paper we develop a spatial sensitivity analysis (SA) method for snow cover fraction input data (SCF) for a distributed rainfall–runoff model to investigate if the model is differently subjected to SCF uncertainty in different zones of the model. The analysis was focused on the relation between the SCF sensitivity and the physical, spatial parameters and processes of a distributed rainfall–runoff model. The methodology is tested for the Biebrza River catchment, Poland for which a distributed WetSpa model is setup to simulate two years of daily runoff. The SA uses the Latin-Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) algorithm, which uses different response functions for each 4 km × 4 km snow zone. The results show that the spatial patterns of sensitivity can be easily interpreted by co-occurrence of different environmental factors such as: geomorphology, soil texture, land-use, precipitation and temperature. Moreover, the spatial pattern of sensitivity under different response functions is related to different spatial parameters and physical processes. The results clearly show that the LH-OAT algorithm is suitable for the spatial sensitivity analysis approach and that the SCF is spatially sensitive in the WetSpa model.

Description: GRACE storage-streamflow hystereses reveal the dynamics of regional watersheds Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12027-12062, 2014 Author(s): E. A. Sproles, S. G. Leibowitz, J. T. Reager, P. J. Wigington Jr., J. S. Famiglietti, and S. D. Patil We characterize how regional watersheds function as simple, dynamic systems through a series of hysteresis loops. These loops illustrate the temporal relationship between runoff and terrestrial water storage using measurements from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites in three regional-scale watersheds (〉150 000 km 2 ) of the Columbia River Basin, USA and Canada. The direction of the hystereses for the GRACE signal move in opposite directions from the isolated groundwater hystereses, suggesting that regional scale watersheds require soil water storage to reach a certain threshold before groundwater recharge and peak runoff occur. While the physical processes underlying these hystereses are inherently complex, the vertical integration of terrestrial water in the GRACE signal encapsulates the processes that govern the non-linear function of regional-scale watersheds. We use this process-based understanding to test how GRACE data can be applied prognostically to predict seasonal runoff (mean R 2 of 0.91) and monthly runoff (mean R 2 of 0.77) in all three watersheds. The global nature of GRACE data allows this same methodology to be applied in other regional-scale studies, and could be particularly useful in regions with minimal data and in trans-boundary watersheds.

Description: Reducing structural uncertainty in conceptual hydrological modeling in the semi-arid Andes Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12137-12186, 2014 Author(s): P. Hublart, D. Ruelland, A. Dezetter, and H. Jourde The use of lumped, conceptual models in hydrological impact studies requires placing more emphasis on the uncertainty arising from deficiencies and/or ambiguities in the model structure. This study provides an opportunity to combine a multiple-hypothesis framework with a multi-criteria assessment scheme to reduce structural uncertainty in the conceptual modeling of a meso-scale Andean catchment (1515 km 2 ) over a 30 year period (1982–2011). The modeling process was decomposed into six model-building decisions related to the following aspects of the system behavior: snow accumulation and melt, runoff generation, redistribution and delay of water fluxes, and natural storage effects. Each of these decisions was provided with a set of alternative modeling options, resulting in a total of 72 competing model structures. These structures were calibrated using the concept of Pareto optimality with three criteria pertaining to streamflow simulations and one to the seasonal dynamics of snow processes. The results were analyzed in the four-dimensional space of performance measures using a fuzzy c -means clustering technique and a differential split sample test, leading to identify 14 equally acceptable model hypotheses. A filtering approach was then applied to these best-performing structures in order to minimize the overall uncertainty envelope while maximizing the number of enclosed observations. This led to retain 8 model hypotheses as a representation of the minimum structural uncertainty that could be obtained with this modeling framework. Future work to better consider model predictive uncertainty should include a proper assessment of parameter equifinality and data errors, as well as the testing of new or refined hypotheses to allow for the use of additional auxiliary observations.

Description: Extreme value statistics of scalable data exemplified by neutron porosities in deep boreholes Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 11637-11686, 2014 Author(s): A. Guadagnini, S. P. Neuman, T. Nan, M. Riva, and C. L. Winter Spatial statistics of earth and environmental (as well as many other) data tend to vary with scale. Common manifestations of scale-dependent statistics include a tendency of increments to have symmetric, non-Gaussian frequency distributions characterized by heavy tails that decay with separation distance or lag; power-law scaling of sample structure functions (statistical moments of absolute increments) in midranges of lags; linear relationships between log structure functions of successive orders at all lags, known as extended self-similarity or ESS; and nonlinear scaling of structure function power-law exponents with function order, a phenomenon commonly attributed in the literature to multifractals. Elsewhere we proposed, explored and demonstrated a new method of geostatistical inference that captures all of these phenomena within a unified theoretical framework. The framework views data as samples from random fields constituting scale-mixtures of truncated (monofractal) fractional Brownian motion (tfBm) or fractional Gaussian noise (tfGn). Important questions not addressed in previous studies concern the distribution and statistical scaling of extreme incremental values. Of special interest in hydrology (and many other areas) are statistics of absolute increments exceeding given thresholds, known as peaks over thresholds or POTs. In this paper we explore for the first time the statistical behavior of POTs associated with samples from scale-mixtures of tfBm or tfGn. We are fortunate to have at our disposal thousands of neutron porosity values from six deep boreholes, in three diverse depositional environments, which we show possess the properties of such samples thus following the theory we proposed. The porosity data are of additional value in revealing a remarkable transition from one scaling regime to another at certain lags. The phenomena we uncover are of fundamental importance for the analysis of fluid flow and solute as well as particulate transport in complex hydrogeologic environments.

Description: Using variograms to detect and attribute hydrological change Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 11763-11795, 2014 Author(s): A. Chiverton, J. Hannaford, I. Holman, R. Corstanje, C. Prudhomme, T. M. Hess, and J. P. Bloomfield There have been many published studies aiming to identify temporal changes in river flow time-series, most of which use monotonic trend tests such as the Mann–Kendall test. Although robust to both the distribution of the data and incomplete records, these tests have important limitations and provide no information as to whether a change in variability mirrors a change in magnitude. This study develops a new method for detecting periods of change in a river flow time-series using Temporally Shifting Variograms, TSV, based on applying variograms to moving windows in a time-series and comparing these to the long-term average variogram, which characterises the temporal dependence structure in the river flow time-series. Variogram properties in each moving window can also be related to potential meteorological drivers. The method is applied to 94 UK catchments which were chosen to have minimal anthropogenic influences and good quality data between 1980 and 2012 inclusive. Each of the four variogram parameters (Range, Sill and two measures of semi-variance) characterise different aspects of change in the river flow regime, and have a different relationship with the precipitation characteristics. Three variogram parameters (the Sill and the two measures of semi-variance) are related to variability (either day-to-day or over the time-series) and have the largest correlations with indicators describing the magnitude and variability of precipitation. The fourth (the Range) is dependent on the relationship between the river flow on successive days and is most correlated with the length of wet and dry periods. Two prominent periods of change were identified: 1995 to 2001 and 2004 to 2012. The first period of change is attributed to an increase in the magnitude of rainfall whilst the second period is attributed to an increase in variability in the rainfall. The study demonstrates that variograms have considerable potential for application in the detection and attribution of temporal variability and change in hydrological systems.

Description: Evaluation of land surface model simulations of evapotranspiration over a 12 year crop succession: impact of the soil hydraulic properties Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 11687-11733, 2014 Author(s): S. Garrigues, A. Olioso, J.-C. Calvet, E. Martin, S. Lafont, S. Moulin, A. Chanzy, O. Marloie, V. Desfonds, N. Bertrand, and D. Renard Evapotranspiration has been recognized as one of the most uncertain term in the surface water balance simulated by land surface models. In this study, the SURFEX/ISBA-A-gs simulations of evapotranspiration are assessed at local scale over a 12 year Mediterranean crop succession. The model is evaluated in its standard implementation which relies on the use of the ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil properties. The originality of this work consists in explicitly representing the succession of crop cycles and inter-crop bare soil periods in the simulations and assessing its impact on the dynamic of simulated and measured evapotranspiration over a long period of time. The analysis focuses on key soil parameters which drive the simulation of evapotranspiration, namely the rooting depth, the soil moisture at saturation, the soil moisture at field capacity and the soil moisture at wilting point. The simulations achieved with the standard values of these parameters are compared to those achieved with the in situ values. The portability of the ISBA pedotransfer functions is evaluated over a typical Mediterranean crop site. Various in situ estimates of the soil parameters are considered and distinct parametrization strategies are tested to represent the evapotranspiration dynamic over the crop succession. This work shows that evapotranspiration mainly results from the soil evaporation when it is continuously simulated over a Mediterranean crop succession. The evapotranspiration simulated with the standard surface and soil parameters of the model is largely underestimated. The deficit in cumulative evapotranspiration amounts to 24% over 12 years. The bias in daily daytime evapotranspiration is −0.24 mm day −1 . The ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil moisture at saturation and at wilting point are overestimated which explains most of the evapotranspiration underestimation. The overestimation of the soil moisture at wilting point causes the underestimation of transpiration at the end of the crop cycles. The overestimation of the soil moisture at saturation triggers the underestimation of the soil evaporation during the wet soil periods. The use of field capacity values derived from laboratory retention measurements leads to inaccurate simulation of soil evaporation due to the lack of representativeness of the soil structure variability at the field scale. The most accurate simulation is achieved with the values of the soil hydraulic properties derived from field measured soil moisture. Their temporal analysis over each crop cycle provides meaningful estimates of the wilting point, the field capacity and the rooting depth to represent the crop water needs and accurately simulate the evapotranspiration over the crop succession. We showed that the uncertainties in the eddy-covariance measurements are significant and can explain a large part of the unresolved random differences between the simulations and the measurements of evapotranspiration. Other possible model shortcomings include the lack of representation of soil vertical heterogeneity and root profile along with inaccurate energy balance partitioning between the soil and the vegetation at low LAI.

Description: A dynamic water accounting framework based on marginal resource opportunity cost Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 11735-11762, 2014 Author(s): A. Tilmant, G. Marques, and Y. Mohamed Many river basins throughout the world are increasingly under pressure as water demands keep rising due to population growth, industrialization, urbanization and rising living standards. In the past, the typical answer to meet those demands focused on the supply-side and involved the construction of hydraulic infrastructures to capture more water from surface water bodies and from aquifers. As river basins were being more and more developed, downstream water users and ecosystems have become increasingly dependent on the management actions taken by upstream users. The increased interconnectedness between water users, aquatic ecosystems and the built environment is further compounded by climate change and its impact on the water cycle. Those pressures mean that it has become increasingly important to measure and account for changes in water fluxes and their corresponding economic value as they progress throughout the river system. Such basin water accounting should provide policy makers with important information regarding the relative contribution of each water user, infrastructure and management decision to the overall economic value of the river basin. This paper presents a dynamic water accounting approach whereby the entire river basin is considered as a value chain with multiple services including production and storage. Water users and reservoirs operators are considered as economic agents who can exchange water with their hydraulic neighbours at a price corresponding to the marginal value of water. Effective water accounting is made possible by keeping track of all water fluxes and their corresponding hypothetical transactions using the results of a hydro-economic model. The proposed approach is illustrated with the Eastern Nile River basin in Africa.

Description: Technical Note: Surface water velocity observations from a camera: a case study on the Tiber River Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 11883-11904, 2014 Author(s): F. Tauro, G. Olivieri, A. Petroselli, M. Porfiri, and S. Grimaldi Monitoring surface water velocity during flood events is a challenging task. Techniques based on deploying instruments in the flow are often unfeasible due to high velocity and abundant sediment transport. A low-cost and versatile technology that provides continuous and automatic observations is still not available. LSPIV (large scale particle imaging velocimetry) is a promising approach to tackle these issues. Such technique consists of developing surface water velocity maps analyzing video frame sequences recorded with a camera. In this technical brief, we implement a novel LSPIV experimental apparatus to observe a flood event in the Tiber river at a cross-section located in the center of Rome, Italy. We illustrate results from three tests performed during the hydrograph flood peak and recession limb for different illumination and weather conditions. The obtained surface velocity maps are compared to the rating curve velocity and to benchmark velocity values. Experimental findings confirm the potential of the proposed LSPIV implementation in aiding research in natural flow monitoring.

Description: An extended modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on groundwater recharge and adaptation in arid areas Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 11797-11835, 2014 Author(s): H. Hashemi, C. B. Uvo, and R. Berndtsson The impact of future climate scenarios on surface and groundwater resources was simulated using a modeling approach for an artificial recharge area in arid southern Iran. Future climate data for the periods of 2010–2030 and 2030–2050 were acquired from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios were adapted to the studied region using the delta-change method. The modified version of the HBV model (Qbox) was used to simulate runoff in a flash flood prone catchment. The model was calibrated and validated for the period 2002–2011 using daily discharge data. The projected climate variables were used to simulate future runoff. The rainfall–runoff model was then coupled to a calibrated groundwater flow and recharge model (MODFLOW) to simulate future recharge and groundwater hydraulic head. The results of the rainfall–runoff modeling showed that under the B1 scenario the number of floods might increase in the area. This in turn calls for a proper management, as this is the only source of fresh water supply in the studied region. The results of the groundwater recharge modeling showed no significant difference between present and future recharge for all scenarios. Owing to that, four abstraction and recharge scenarios were assumed to simulate the groundwater level and recharged water in the studied aquifer. The results showed that the abstraction scenarios have the most substantial effect on the groundwater level and the continuation of current pumping rate would lead to a groundwater decline by 18 m up to 2050.

Description: Improving inflow forecasting into hydropower reservoirs through a complementary modelling framework Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12063-12101, 2014 Author(s): A. S. Gragne, A. Sharma, R. Mehrotra, and K. Alfredsen Accuracy of reservoir inflow forecasts is instrumental for maximizing the value of water resources and benefits gained through hydropower generation. Improving hourly reservoir inflow forecasts over a 24 h lead-time is considered within the day-ahead (Elspot) market of the Nordic exchange market. We present here a new approach for issuing hourly reservoir inflow forecasts that aims to improve on existing forecasting models that are in place operationally, without needing to modify the pre-existing approach, but instead formulating an additive or complementary model that is independent and captures the structure the existing model may be missing. Besides improving forecast skills of operational models, the approach estimates the uncertainty in the complementary model structure and produces probabilistic inflow forecasts that entrain suitable information for reducing uncertainty in the decision-making processes in hydropower systems operation. The procedure presented comprises an error model added on top of an un-alterable constant parameter conceptual model, the models being demonstrated with reference to the 207 km 2 Krinsvatn catchment in central Norway. The structure of the error model is established based on attributes of the residual time series from the conceptual model. Deterministic and probabilistic evaluations revealed an overall significant improvement in forecast accuracy for lead-times up to 17 h. Season based evaluations indicated that the improvement in inflow forecasts varies across seasons and inflow forecasts in autumn and spring are less successful with the 95% prediction interval bracketing less than 95% of the observations for lead-times beyond 17 h.

Description: Global patterns of annual actual evapotranspiration with land-cover type: knowledge gained from a new observation-based database Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12103-12135, 2014 Author(s): S. M. Ambrose and S. M. Sterling The process of evapotranspiration (ET) plays a critical role in the earth system, driving key land-surface processes in the energy, water and carbon cycles. Land-cover (LC) exerts multiple controls on ET, yet the global distribution of ET by LC and the related physical variables are poorly understood. The lack of quantitative understanding of global ET variation with LC begets considerable uncertainties regarding how ET and key land-surface processes will change alongside ongoing anthropogenic LC transformations. Here we apply statistical analysis and models to a new global ET database to advance our understanding of how annual actual ET varies with LC type. We derive global fields for each LC using linear mixed effect models (LMMs) that use geographical and meteorological variables as possible independent regression variables. Our inventory of ET observations reveals important gaps in spatial coverage that overlie hotpots of global change. There is a spatial bias of observations towards the mid latitudes, and LCs with large areas in the high latitudes (lakes, wetlands and barren land) are poorly represented. From the distribution of points as well as the uncertainty analysis completed by bootstrapping we identify high priority regions in need of more data collection. Our analysis of the new database provides new insights into how ET varies globally, providing more robust estimates of global ET rates for a broad range of LC types. Results reveal that different LC types have distinct global patterns of ET. Furthermore, zonal ET means among LCs reveal new patterns: ET rates in low latitudinal bands are more sensitive to LC change than in higher latitude bands; LCs with a higher evaporation component show higher variability of ET at the global scale; and LCs with dispersed rather than contiguous global locations have a higher variability of ET at the global scale. Results from this study indicate two major advancements are required to improve our ability to predict how ET will vary with global change. First, further collection of ground truth observations of ET is needed to fill gaps in LC types and spatial location identified in this paper. Second, LC types need to be de-aggregated into finer categories to better characterize ET, to reduce uncertainty and weakened strength to predictor variables, associated by aggregation of heterogeneous LC types into one group; this will require the development of higher-resolution LC databases.

Description: Linking baseflow separation and groundwater storage dynamics in an alpine basin (Dammagletscher, Switzerland) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12187-12221, 2014 Author(s): F. Kobierska, T. Jonas, J. Kirchner, and S. M. Bernasconi This study aims at understanding interactions between stream and aquifer in a glacierized alpine catchment. We specifically focused on a glacier forefield, for which continuous measurements of stream water electrical conductivity, discharge and depth to the water table were available over four consecutive years. Based on this dataset, we developed a two-component mixing model in which the groundwater component was modelled using measured groundwater levels. The aquifer actively contributing to stream flow was assumed to be a superposition of two linear storage units. Calibrating the model against measured total discharge yielded reliable sub-hourly estimates of discharge and insights into groundwater storage properties. We found that a near-surface aquifer with high hydraulic conductivity overlies a larger reservoir with longer response time. Analyzing the mass balance of infiltration into the groundwater reservoir against exfiltration into the stream provided results that were in line with previous findings at this catchment.

Description: Calibration approaches for distributed hydrologic models using high performance computing: implication for streamflow projections under climate change Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 10273-10317, 2014 Author(s): S. Wi, Y. C. E. Yang, S. Steinschneider, A. Khalil, and C. M. Brown This study utilizes high performance computing to test the performance and uncertainty of calibration strategies for a spatially distributed hydrologic model in order to improve model simulation accuracy and understand prediction uncertainty at interior ungaged sites of a sparsely-gaged watershed. The study is conducted using a distributed version of the HYMOD hydrologic model (HYMOD_DS) applied to the Kabul River basin. Several calibration experiments are conducted to understand the benefits and costs associated with different calibration choices, including (1) whether multisite gaged data should be used simultaneously or in a step-wise manner during model fitting, (2) the effects of increasing parameter complexity, and (3) the potential to estimate interior watershed flows using only gaged data at the basin outlet. The implications of the different calibration strategies are considered in the context of hydrologic projections under climate change. Several interesting results emerge from the study. The simultaneous use of multisite data is shown to improve the calibration over a step-wise approach, and both multisite approaches far exceed a calibration based on only the basin outlet. The basin outlet calibration can lead to projections of mid-21st century streamflow that deviate substantially from projections under multisite calibration strategies, supporting the use of caution when using distributed models in data-scarce regions for climate change impact assessments. Surprisingly, increased parameter complexity does not substantially increase the uncertainty in streamflow projections, even though parameter equifinality does emerge. The results suggest that increased (excessive) parameter complexity does not always lead to increased predictive uncertainty if structural uncertainties are present. The largest uncertainty in future streamflow results from variations in projected climate between climate models, which substantially outweighs the calibration uncertainty.

Description: Hydrological drought typology: temperature-related drought types and associated societal impacts Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 10465-10514, 2014 Author(s): A. F. Van Loon, S. W. Ploum, J. Parajka, A. K. Fleig, E. Garnier, G. Laaha, and H. A. J. Van Lanen For drought management and prediction, knowledge of causing factors and socio-economic impacts of hydrological droughts is crucial. Propagation of meteorological conditions in the hydrological cycle results in different hydrological drought types that require separate analysis. In addition to the existing hydrological drought typology, we here define two new drought types related to snow and ice. A snowmelt drought is a deficiency in the snowmelt discharge peak in spring in snow-influenced basins and a glaciermelt drought is a deficiency in the glaciermelt discharge peak in summer in glacierised basins. In 21 catchments in Austria and Norway we studied the meteorological conditions in the seasons preceding and at the time of snowmelt and glaciermelt drought events. Snowmelt droughts in Norway were mainly controlled by below-average winter precipitation, while in Austria both temperature and precipitation played a role. For glaciermelt droughts the effect of below-normal summer temperature was dominant, both in Austria and Norway. Subsequently, we investigated the impacts of temperature-related drought types (i.e. snowmelt and glaciermelt drought , but also cold and warm snow season drought and rain-to-snow-season drought ). In historical archives and drought databases for the US and Europe many impacts were found that can be attributed to these temperature-related hydrological drought types, mainly in the sectors agriculture and electricity production (hydropower). However, drawing conclusions on the frequency of occurrence of different drought types from reported impacts is difficult, mainly because of reporting biases and the inevitably limited spatial and temporal scales of the information. This study shows that the combination of quantitative analysis of causing factors and qualitative analysis of impacts of temperature-related droughts is a promising approach to identify relevant drought types in other regions, especially if more data on drought impacts become available.

Description: Diagnosing the seasonal land–atmosphere coupling strength over Northern Australia: dependence on soil moisture state and coupling strength definition Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 10431-10463, 2014 Author(s): M. Decker, A. Pitman, and J. Evans The strength of land–atmosphere coupling during the onset (September) through to the peak (February) of the wet season over Northern Australia is statistically diagnosed using ensembles of land surface model simulations that produce a range of different background soil moisture states. We derive coupling strength between the soil moisture and the planetary boundary layer via a statistical measure of association. The simulated evaporative fraction and the boundary layer are shown to be strongly coupled during both SON and DJF despite the differing background soil moisture states between the two seasons as among the ensemble members. The sign and magnitude of the surface layer soil moisture based coupling strength during the onset of the wet season (SON) differs from the coupling between the evaporative fraction and boundary layer from the same season, and the coupling between the surface soil moisture and boundary layer coupling during DJF. The patterns and magnitude of the surface flux-boundary layer coupling are not captured when coupling is diagnosed using the surface layer soil moisture alone. The conflicting results arise because the surface layer soil moisture lacks strong association with the atmosphere during the monsoon onset because the evapotranspiration is dominated by transpiration. Our results indicate that accurately diagnosing coupling strength in seasonally dry regions, such as Northern Australia, requires root zone soil moisture to be included.

Description: Using groundwater age to understand sources and dynamics of nutrient contamination through the catchment into Lake Rotorua, New Zealand Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 9907-9960, 2014 Author(s): U. Morgenstern, C. J. Daughney, G. Leonard, D. Gordon, F. M. Donath, and R. Reeves The water quality of Lake Rotorua has declined continuously over the past 50 yr despite mitigation efforts over recent decades. Delayed response of the groundwater discharges to historic land-use intensification 50 yr ago was the reason suggested by early tritium measurements, which indicated large transit times through the groundwater system. We use the isotopic and chemistry signature of the groundwater for detailed understanding of the origin, fate, flow pathways, lag times, and future loads of contaminants. A unique set of high-quality tritium data over more than four decades, encompassing the time when the tritium spike from nuclear weapons testing moved through the groundwater system, allows us to determine detailed age distribution parameters of the water discharging into Lake Rotorua. The Rotorua volcanic groundwater system is complicated due to the highly complex geology that has evolved through volcanic activity. Vertical and steeply-inclined geological contacts preclude a simple flow model. The extent of the Lake Rotorua groundwater catchment is difficult to establish due to the deep water table in large areas, combined with inhomogeneous groundwater flow patterns. Hierarchical cluster analysis of the water chemistry parameters provided evidence of the recharge source of the large springs near the lake shore, with discharge from the Mamaku ignimbrite through lake sediment layers. Groundwater chemistry and age data show clearly the source of nutrients that cause lake eutrophication, nitrate from agricultural activities and phosphate from geologic sources. With a naturally high phosphate load reaching the lake continuously via all streams, the only effective way to limit algae blooms and improve lake water quality in such environments is by limiting the nitrate load. The groundwater in the Rotorua catchment, once it has passed through the soil zone, shows no further decrease in dissolved oxygen, indicating absence of electron donors in the aquifer that could facilitate microbial denitrification reactions. Nitrate from land-use activities that leaches out of the root zone of agricultural land into the deeper part of the groundwater system must be expected to travel with the groundwater to the lake. The old age and the highly mixed nature of the water discharges imply a very slow and lagged response of the streams and the lake to anthropogenic contaminants in the catchment, such as nitrate. Using the age distribution as deduced from tritium time series data measured in the stream discharges into the lake allows prediction of future nutrient loads from historic land-use activities 50 yr ago. For Hamurana Stream, the largest stream to Lake Rotorua, it takes more than a hundred years for the groundwater-dominated stream discharge to adjust to changes in land-use activities. These time scales apply to activities that cause contamination, but also to remediation action.

Description: Does the simple dynamical systems approach provide useful information about catchment hydrological functioning in a Mediterranean context? Application to the Ardèche catchment (France) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 10725-10786, 2014 Author(s): M. Adamovic, I. Braud, F. Branger, and J. W. Kirchner This study explores how catchment heterogeneity and variability can be summarized in simplified models, representing the dominant hydrological processes. It focuses on Mediterranean catchments, characterized by heterogeneous geology, pedology, and land use, as well as steep topography and a rainfall regime in which summer droughts contrast with high-rainfall periods in autumn. The Ardèche catchment (south-east France), typical of this environment, is chosen to explore the following questions: (1) can such a Mediterranean catchment be adequately characterized by simple dynamical systems approach and what are the limits of the method under such conditions? (2) What information about dominant predictors of hydrological variability can be retrieved from this analysis in such catchments? In this work we apply the data-driven approach of Kirchner (WRR, 2009) to estimate discharge sensitivity functions that summarize the behavior of four sub-catchments of the Ardèche, using non-vegetation periods (November–March) from 9 years of data (2000–2008) from operational networks. The relevance of the inferred sensitivity function is assessed through hydrograph simulations, and through estimating precipitation rates from discharge fluctuations. We find that the discharge-sensitivity function is downward-curving in double-logarithmic space, thus allowing further simulation of discharge and non-divergence of the model, only during non-vegetation periods. The analysis is complemented by a Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis showing how the parameters summarizing the discharge sensitivity function impact the simulated hydrographs. The resulting discharge simulation results are good for granite catchments, found to be predominantly characterized by saturation excess runoff and sub-surface flow processes. The simple dynamical system hypothesis works especially well in wet conditions (peaks and recessions are well modeled). On the other hand, poor model performance is associated with summer and dry periods when evapotranspiration is high and low-flow discharge observations are inaccurate. In the Ardèche catchment, inferred precipitation rates agree well in timing and amount with observed gauging stations and SAFRAN climatic data reanalysis during the non-vegetation periods. The model should further be improved to include a more accurate representation of actual evapotranspiration, but provides a satisfying summary of the catchment functioning during wet and winter periods.

Description: Spatial distribution of oxygen-18 and deuterium in stream waters across the Japanese archipelago Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 10903-10930, 2014 Author(s): M. Katsuyama, T. Yoshioka, and E. Konohira The spatial distribution of oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition (δ 18 O and δ 2 H) of stream waters across Japan was clarified with a data set compiling sample data obtained from 1278 forest catchments during the summer of 2003. Both δ 18 O and δ 2 H values showed positive correlations with the mean annual air temperature and annual evapotranspiration, and negative correlations with latitude and elevation. Deuterium excess ( d excess) values in stream waters were higher on the Sea of Japan side, and lower on the Pacific Ocean side, of the Japanese archipelago. The d excess in precipitation was generally higher in winter and lower in summer in Japan. The Sea of Japan side experiences a great deal of snowfall, and seasonal changes in monthly precipitation are rather small. In contrast, the Pacific Ocean side experiences a large amount of rainfall during summer with low levels of precipitation during the winter. Therefore, the lower d excess in stream waters on the Pacific Ocean side reflects summer precipitation, and the higher values on the Sea of Japan side are affected by delayed recharge from snowmelt. The isoscapes of stream water connote not only spatially integrated but also temporally integrated isotope signals of precipitation, and provide a framework for addressing applied hydrological, ecological, or meteorological research questions at regional scales, such as the effects of climate change.

Description: How over 100 years of climate variability may affect estimates of potential evaporation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 10787-10828, 2014 Author(s): R. P. Bartholomeus, J. H. Stagge, L. M. Tallaksen, and J. P. M. Witte Hydrological modeling frameworks require an accurate representation of evaporation fluxes for appropriate quantification of e.g. the soil moisture budget, droughts, recharge and groundwater processes. Many frameworks have used the concept of potential evaporation, often estimated for different vegetation classes by multiplying the evaporation from a reference surface ("reference evaporation") with crop specific scaling factors ("crop factors"). Though this two-step potential evaporation approach undoubtedly has practical advantages, the empirical nature of both reference evaporation methods and crop factors limits its usability in extrapolations and non-stationary climatic conditions. In this paper we assess the sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates for different vegetation classes using the two-step approach when calibrated using a non-stationary climate. We used the past century's time series of observed climate, containing non-stationary signals of multi-decadal atmospheric oscillations, global warming, and global dimming/brightening, to evaluate the sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates to the choice and length of the calibration period. We show that using empirical coefficients outside their calibration range may lead to systematic differences between process-based and empirical reference evaporation methods, and systematic errors in estimated potential evaporation components. Such extrapolations of time-variant model parameters are not only relevant for the calculation of potential evaporation, but also for hydrological modeling in general, and they may limit the temporal robustness of hydrological models.

Description: Natural stochasticity vs. management effort: use of year-to-year variance for disentangling significance of two mutually confounding factors affecting water quality of a Norwegian cold dimictic lake Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12489-12518, 2014 Author(s): A. T. Romarheim, K. Tominaga, G. Riise, and T. Andersen Natural stochasticity can pose challenges in managing the quality of the environment, or hinder understanding of the system structure. It is problematic because unfavourable stochastic event cancels the costly management effort and because favourable stochastic event overestimates success of the management effort. This paper presents a variance-based modelling method that can be used to quantify the extent to which the natural stochasticity can affect the target environment. We use a case study of a lake water quality assessment in a Norwegian lake of Årungen, together with a lake model MyLake, in order to present the method, and how this method could assist in answering scientific and managerial questions. Specifically, the case study's goal was to disentangle the respective significance of nutrient loading (management) and weather (the confounding natural stochasticity). Many scientifically and managerially relevant understandings have been revealed. For example, variation in runoff volume was most prevalent during autumn and winter, while variation in phosphorus inflow was most extensive from late winter to early spring. Thermal related properties in the lake were mostly determined by weather conditions, whereas loading was the most important factor for phytoplankton biomass and water transparency. Mild winters and greater inputs of suspended matter and phosphorus were followed by increased phytoplankton biomass and light attenuation. These findings suggest also that future changes in the global climate may have important implications for local water management decision-making. The present method of disentangling mutually confounding factors is not limited to lake water quality studies and therefore should provide certain utility in other application field of modelling.

Description: Groundwater surface mapping informs sources of catchment baseflow Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 12405-12441, 2014 Author(s): J. F. Costelloe, T. J. Peterson, K. Halbert, A. W. Western, and J. J. McDonnell Groundwater discharge is a major contributor to stream baseflow. Quantifying this flux is difficult, despite its considerable importance to water resource management and evaluation of the effects of groundwater extraction on streamflow. It is important to be able to differentiate between contributions to streamflow from regional groundwater discharge (more susceptible to groundwater extraction) compared to interflow processes (arguably less susceptible to groundwater extraction). Here we explore the use of unconfined groundwater surface mapping as an independent dataset to constrain estimates of groundwater discharge to streamflow using traditional digital filter and tracer techniques. We developed groundwater surfaces from 98 monitoring bores using Kriging with external drift. Baseflow estimates at the catchment outlet were made using the Eckhardt digital filter approach and tracer data mixing analysis using major ion and stable isotope signatures. Our groundwater mapping approach yielded two measures (percentage area intersecting the land surface and monthly change in saturated volume) that indicated that digital filter-derived baseflow significantly exceeded probable groundwater discharge during the high flow period of spring to early summer. Tracer analysis was not able to resolve contributions from ungauged tributary flows (sourced from either shallow flow paths, i.e. interflow and perched aquifer discharge, or regional groundwater discharge) and regional groundwater. Groundwater mapping was able to identify ungauged sub-catchments where regional groundwater discharge was too deep to contribute to tributary flow and thus where shallow flow paths dominated the tributary flow. Our results suggest that kriged unconfined groundwater surfaces provide a useful, empirical and independent dataset for investigating sources of fluxes contributing to baseflow and identifying periods where baseflow analysis may overestimate groundwater discharge to streamflow.

Description: Assessing downstream flood impacts due to a potential GLOF from Imja Lake in Nepal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 13019-13053, 2014 Author(s): M. A. Somos-Valenzuela, D. C. McKinney, A. C. Byers, D. R. Rounce, C. Portocarrero, and D. Lamsal Glacial-dominated areas pose unique challenges to downstream communities in adapting to recent and continuing global climate change, including increased threats of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that can increase risk due to flooding of downstream communities and cause substantial impacts on regional social, environmental and economic systems. The Imja glacial lake in Nepal, with potential to generate a GLOF, was studied using a two-dimensional debris flow inundation model in order to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed measures to reduce possible flooding impacts to downstream communities by lowering the lake level. The results indicate that only minor flood impact reduction is achieved in the downstream community of Dingboche with modest (~3 m) lake lowering. Lowering the lake by 10 m shows a significant reduction in inundated area. However, lowering the lake by 20 m almost eliminates all flood impact at Dingboche. Further downstream at Phakding, the impact of the GLOF is significant and similar reductions in inundation are likely as a result of lake lowering.

Description: Quantification of the influence of preferential flow on slope stability using a numerical modeling approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 13055-13099, 2014 Author(s): W. Shao, T.A. Bogaard, M. Bakker, and R. Greco The effect of preferential flow on the stability of landslides is studied through numerical simulation of two types of rainfall events on a hypothetical hillslope. A model is developed that consists of two parts. The first part is a model for combined saturated/unsaturated subsurface flow and is used to compute the spatial and temporal water pressure response to rainfall. Preferential flow is simulated with a dual-permeability continuum model consisting of a matrix domain coupled to a preferential flow domain. The second part is a~soil mechanics model and is used to compute the spatial and temporal distribution of the local factor of safety based on the water pressure distribution computed with the subsurface flow model. Two types of rainfall events were considered: long duration, low-intensity rainfall, and short duration, high-intensity rainfall. The effect of preferential flow on slope stability is assessed through comparison of the failure area when subsurface flow is simulated with the dual-permeability model as compared to a single-permeability model (no preferential flow). For the low-intensity rainfall case, preferential flow has a positive effect on the slope stability as it drains the water from the matrix domain resulting in a smaller failure area. For the high-intensity rainfall case, preferential flow has a negative effect on the slope stability as the majority of rainfall infiltrates into the preferential flow domain when rainfall intensity exceeds the infiltration capacity of the matrix domain, resulting in larger water pressure and a larger failure area.

Description: Notes on the estimation of resistance to flow during flood wave propagation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11, 13311-13352, 2014 Author(s): M. M. Mrokowska, P. M. Rowiński, and M. B. Kalinowska The paper discusses methods of expressing and evaluating resistance to flow in an unsteady flow. Following meaningful trends in hydrological sciences, the paper suggests abandoning, where possible, resistance coefficients in favour of physically based variables such as shear stress and friction velocity. Consequently, an acknowledged method of friction velocity evaluation based on the relations derived from flow equations is examined. The paper presents both a theoretical discussion of various aspects of friction velocity evaluation and the application of the method to field data originating from artificial dam-break flood waves in a small lowland river. As the method is prone to many errors due to the scarcity and the uncertainty of measurement data, the aim of the paper is to provide suggestions on how to apply the method to enhance the correctness of the results. The main steps in applying the method include consideration of the shape of the channel, the type of wave, the method of evaluating the gradient of the flow depth, and the assessment of the uncertainty of the result. Friction velocity and the Manning coefficient are compared in terms of resistance to flow variability during flood wave propagation. It is concluded that the Manning coefficient may be a misleading indicator of the magnitude of resistance in unsteady flow, and to be inferior to physically based variables in such cases.