ALBERT

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 5 July 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Sorin M.S. Krammer, Alfredo Jiménez〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉We posit that the investments in political connections made by a firm in an emerging market will impact differently its propensity to introduce radical and incremental innovations. In addition, we argue that this effect will be moderated by alternate non-market firm strategies, such as bribery. Using a dataset of more than 9000 firms in 30 emerging economies from Eastern Europe and Central Asia we find that political connections increase the probability of radical innovation but have no significant impact on incremental innovation. Moreover, larger bribing reduces the positive impact of political connections on radical innovation. Our results confirm the importance of political connections for firm activities, but also caution firms on their heterogeneous impact on various types of innovations, and their detrimental interplay with other non-market strategies.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 10 April 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): John Rice, Nigel Martin〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Smart Information and Communications Technology (ICT) is envisaged to provide the capabilities to plan, design, construct, operate and manage Australia's key infrastructure. With over 75% of Australia's population living in cities and accessing public and private goods and services, ICT is positioned as a strategic resource for smart infrastructure developments. In this study, international and domestic stakeholder inputs on the future role of smart ICT in advancing Australia's infrastructure development and operations were crowdsourced for analysis. The study identifies several forms of smart ICT (e.g. building information modelling software) enabled infrastructure that possesses potential to deliver over A$9 billion per annum in domestic economic improvements, with commensurate advancement of communities, regions and urban environments. However, to be effective these smart ICT require enablement through open and interoperable data, sound governance and policy, and government leadership and coordination using dedicated resources. While smart infrastructure development is presently slow and lumbering, the identified smart ICT present as valuable strategic technologies for change and development in domestic communities.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 24 April 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Rahat Iqbal, Faiyaz Doctor, Brian More, Shahid Mahmud, Usman Yousuf〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Big Data has significant impact in developing functional smart cities and supporting modern societies. In this paper, we investigate the importance of Big Data in modern life and economy, and discuss challenges arising from Big Data utilization. Different computational intelligence techniques have been considered as tools for Big Data analytics. We also explore the powerful combination of Big Data and Computational Intelligence (CI) and identify a number of areas, where novel applications in real world smart city problems can be developed by utilizing these powerful tools and techniques. We present a case study for intelligent transportation in the context of a smart city, and a novel data modelling methodology based on a biologically inspired universal generative modelling approach called Hierarchical Spatial-Temporal State Machine (HSTSM). We further discuss various implications of policy, protection, valuation and commercialization related to Big Data, its applications and deployment.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 12 April 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): F.W. Geels, A. McMeekin, B. Pfluger〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Social acceptance and political feasibility are important issues in low-carbon transitions. Since computer models struggle to address these issues, the paper advances socio-technical scenarios as a novel methodological tool. Contributing to recent dialogue approaches, we develop an eight-step methodological procedure that produces socio-technical scenarios through various interactions between the multi-level perspective and computer models. As a specific contribution, we propose ‘transition bottlenecks’ as a methodological aid to mediate dialogue between qualitative MLP-based analysis of 〈em〉contemporary〈/em〉 dynamics and quantitative, model-generated 〈em〉future〈/em〉 pathways. The transition bottlenecks also guide the articulation of socio-technical storylines that suggest how the social acceptance and political feasibility of particular low-carbon innovations can be improved through social interactions and endogenous changes in discourses, preferences, support coalitions and policies. Drawing on results from the 3-year PATHWAYS project, we demonstrate these contributions for the UK electricity system, developing two low-carbon transition pathways to 2050 commensurate with the 2 °C target, one based on technological substitution (enacted by incumbent actors), and one based on broader system transformation (enacted by new entrants).〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Emrah Karakilic〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The transition from industrial capitalism to cognitive capitalism and the rise of the digital revolution have brought the subject of intellectual property rights to the forefront as a controversial issue. This paper holds that the theoretical apparatus and concepts belonging to the industrial phase of capitalism largely fall short with respect to the repercussions that intellectual property rights regime yields. Embracing the methodological precept that social theory must be moulded in order to address the contours of contemporary social reality, this paper engages in an autonomist Marxist update on the concept of intellectual property rights. It ultimately challenges the “intellectual property rights are a socio-economic need” thesis and speculatively argues that the current system of intellectual property rights, directed politically towards the enclosure of commons, constitutes a structural contradiction by i) forming a basis for a social crisis in terms of the established relations of production, and ii) curtailing a part of the socio-economic opportunities for innovation, profit-making, and growth.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 9 April 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Daniela Maresch, Johannes Gartner〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Disruptive technological change can contribute to a more abundant world. However, potentially disruptive technologies often struggle to significantly influence practice. One prominent example is additive manufacturing (AM). Although AM is often regarded as the next great technological revolution in waiting, it has not yet established itself on a large scale in many fields of application. We investigate the reasons behind those challenges by looking at the various fields in which AM is applied and relating them to the specific challenges AM faces, as well as the opportunities it offers in those fields. Our findings rely on a multi-perspective technology foresight process that is based on a discourse analytic approach and that comprises data tomography covering the biggest German-language online magazine on AM and qualitative interview data collected from a range of AM stakeholders. The findings provide an empirically well-founded evaluation and explanation of the link between the challenges and opportunities offered by AM and the extent to which this disruptive technology is leveraged in specific fields. The findings prompt recommendations on how new potentially disruptive technologies can foster abundance in traditional, well established market economies based on the example of the well-developed but traditional market economy of Austria.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 24 April 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Måns Nilsson, Adis Dzebo, Georgia Savvidou, Katarina Axelsson〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Quantitative models of transitions, such as energy systems models and integrated assessment models, do not usually represent social processes, institutions and politics. Their view of societal transitions, along with the governance required to drive them, is therefore limited. Socio-technical systems approaches, in contrast, represent the social side but lack a quantitative view of the future system. This paper addresses this by bridging an energy systems model with socio-technical systems analysis and a local action study, analysing the future transition of the residential heating system in Sweden. The paper focuses on demand-side shifts that would drive a transition to a highly efficient, low-carbon heating system until 2050. A conceptual framework for bridging three approaches is introduced and applied. For example, niche-innovations identified in the socio-technical study are implemented as scenario options in the model. Landscape signals are external drivers of the scenario, and the regime study identifies barriers and governance requirements. The local action study provides insights into community attitudes affecting niches and regime change. Our results indicate that the linking of approaches is meaningful, in that it provides an enriched understanding of future systems change in many dimensions. Further research is required using a variety of models on a variety of domains or sectors to draw more generalizable lessons about bridging modelling and social science-based approaches for transition studies.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 73〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): James H. Gawron, Gregory A. Keoleian, Robert D. De Kleine, Timothy J. Wallington, Hyung Chul Kim〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Although recent studies of autonomous taxis (ATs) have begun to explore potential environmental implications of fleet deployment, little is known about their impacts over the long term. We present a life-cycle assessment framework that incorporates both direct and indirect effects of ATs at the subsystem, vehicle, and mobility-system levels. Eco-driving and intersection connectivity are the direct effects analyzed along with indirect effects that include empty kilometers, parking, charging infrastructure, powertrain rightsizing, electric vehicle adoption, ride-sharing, and fleet-turnover rates. A case study of an AT fleet in Austin, Texas from 2020 to 2050 with constant travel demand indicates the strategic deployment of an electrified AT fleet can reduce cumulative energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 60% in the base case, with a majority of this benefit resulting from electrified powertrains. Further reductions up to 87% can be achieved with accelerated electrical grid decarbonization, dynamic ride-share, longer vehicle lifetime, more energy efficient computer systems, and faster fuel efficiency improvements for new vehicles. We highlight the major opportunities for maximizing the environmental performance of AT fleets over the long term.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 146〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Marco Capasso, Teis Hansen, Jonas Heiberg, Antje Klitkou, Markus Steen〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Governments in countries across the world increasingly adopt the “green growth” discourse to underline their ambition for the greening of their economies. The central tenet of this narrative is the economic opportunities rather than challenges arising from the pursuit of environmental sustainability. Our paper synthesises insights from 113 recent scientific articles, dealing with both environmental issues and economic growth, as well as innovation. Our ambition is exploratory in attempting to take stock of heterogeneous contributions across the spectrum of social science. The articles have been reviewed with a focus on six themes, derived from current discussions in economic geography and transition studies: skills, technology, physical resources, markets, institutions and policies. Four major implications emerge from the review. First, green growth requires competences that allow for handling complex, non-routine situations – in both the private and the public sector. Second, technological progress should be directed towards greener technologies, to avoid investments funds being channelled to brown technologies for short-term returns. Third, our knowledge of the opportunities for achieving green growth must base upon a joint assessment of market failures, structural system failures and transformational system failures. Finally, greater attention should be devoted to the geography of green growth processes at different scales.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 73〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Ran Tu, Lama Alfaseeh, Shadi Djavadian, Bilal Farooq, Marianne Hatzopoulou〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Communication between vehicles and road infrastructure can enable more efficient use of the road network and hence reduce congestion in urban areas. This improvement can be enhanced by distributed control due to its lighter computational load and higher reliability. Despite favourable impacts on traffic, little is known about the effects of such systems on near-road air quality. In this study, an End-To-End (E2E) dynamic distributed routing algorithm in Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) was applied in downtown Toronto, to identify whether benefits to network throughput were associated with lower near-road NO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentrations. We observe significant reductions in the emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) with increased penetration of CAVs. Nonetheless, at times, the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO〈sub〉x〈/sub〉) increased with higher CAVs. Besides, a higher frequency and severity of NO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 hot-spots were observed under a 100% CAV scenario. Impacts of the proposed system on electric energy consumption in a full electric vehicle network were also investigated, indicating that the addition of CAVs that are electric did not contribute to high energy savings. We propose that such new transformative technologies in transportation should be designed with air pollution and public health goals.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 29 August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Zhao Zhang, Brian Wolshon, Pamela Murray-Tuite〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Evacuations, a critical and widely used emergency response action, vary widely in terms of their scale, scope, urgency and level of organization. While they differ from event to event, history shows that there are a small set of variables, inherent to all evacuations, that largely govern their effectiveness. In this paper, these fundamental variables are described from a theoretical perspective to illustrate how factors of evacuation demand and supply affect clearance time and how they can also be used to relate evacuation planning to concepts of risk, resiliency, and resource allocation. This work provides a basis for a general theory of evacuation processes that can be used it to conceptualize relationships like cost-benefit tradeoffs in evacuation management to improve long-range evacuation planning through a better understanding of the investment and allocation of resources.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 75〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Kate Hosford, Meghan Winters, Daniel Fuller〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 75〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Michał A. Niedzielski, Rafał Kucharski〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Urban spatial structure, transport mode and space-time constraints are known to affect accessibility to activities for a city’s residents. However, most studies measure accessibility from home only and report accessibility in terms of the travel time or number of activities. Such studies neglect the mobility and time budget constraints on people’s accessibility. Furthermore, modal accessibility disparity studies have not considered inequality between modes during the afternoon commute. We examine accessibility to non-work activities by automobile and public transport using spatiotemporal measures that determine the number of minutes people have available to participate in activities, given time budget and activity duration constraints, rather than simply the number of activities. We examine modal accessibility disparity in Warsaw, Poland. Our two major findings are the reverse of findings in previous studies: that disparity shifts toward public transport as the activity duration increases and the travel time decreases; and that it shifts toward public transport with increasing distance away from the city center.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 75〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Michael Held, Maximilian Schücking〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The utilization has a significant effect on the life-cycle assessment (LCA) of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). This article evaluates this effect in detail by presenting a case-driven LCA for BEVs deployed in two commercial mobility applications. The empirical data was recorded over 2.5 years and 450,000 km. The findings of this article indicate that regular and predictable mobility demand patterns in combination with a high vehicle utilization are favorable conditions for an environmentally beneficial deployment of BEVs. These characteristics allow tailoring the battery capacity to the requirements and avoiding an unnecessary offset from production. When charging the vehicles with electricity from renewable energy sources (RESs), the high operating grade utilizes the comparatively lower environmental impacts per kilometer. A high lifetime mileage allows breaking-even to comparable internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) in most investigated impact categories. Since regular and predictable mobility patterns, as well as a high operating grade, are commonly found in commercial applications these are especially suitable for replacing ICEVs with BEVs from an environmental perspective.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 74〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yewen Gu, Stein W. Wallace, Xin Wang〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Global warming is a major challenge for this planet, and its solution requires efforts throughout society. Maritime transportation, which carries more than 90% of the global trade, plays a critical role in the contribution of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the GHGs emitted by the global fleet still fall outside the emission reduction scheme established by the Kyoto Protocol. Alternative solutions are therefore sought. Several market-based measures have been proposed and submitted to IMO for discussion and evaluation. In this paper, we focus on one of these measures, namely the Maritime Emissions Trading Scheme (METS). An optimization model that integrates (global or regional) METS into the classical fleet composition and deployment problem is proposed. This model is used as a tool to study the impact of METS on fleet operations and their CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions. The results of the computational study suggest that, in the short term, the implementation of METS does not lead to emission reduction in most scenarios. However, in the case of low bunker prices, high allowance costs or global METS coverage, a more significant CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 decrease in the short term can be expected.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Juan A. Martínez-Román, Javier Gamero, María de Loreto Delgado-González, Juan A. Tamayo〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Innovation is essential to the knowledge economy and requires organizations to open to external markets. This paper delves into the influence of product innovation on internationalization in SMEs and elaborates an explanatory model of their innovative behavior. Analysis of the data of 123,395 surveys of firms in 13 European countries demonstrates that product innovation drives the firm's commercial expansion and favors its exportation activity, though with a non-linear relationship and decreasing performances as innovation level increases. It is also demonstrated that, in general terms, risk in geographic market extension does not vary in a relevant way when firms are more innovative. Significant differences were detected between countries in regard to the impact of innovation and its marginal utility, and in the evolution of risk in said market extension with increasing innovation. The comparative analysis reveals differences between more and less technological industries, and, on an aggregate level, between more developed economies in the Western and Eastern European transition economies, with less marked disparities from north to south. Analysis of the model reveals the prominence of internal variables in innovative behavior, as well as a certain disconnect between firms and the institutional context in the set of countries.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 20 August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Elham Hajhashemi, Pamela M. Murray-Tuite, Susan L. Hotle, Kris Wernstedt〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Hurricane Sandy greatly disrupted the New York City (NYC) region’s transportation systems, electric power systems, work locations, and schools in 2012. This study uses survey responses from NYC Metropolitan Area residents to develop an agent-based model that depicts commuter travel behavior and adaptation after the disruption. Six scenarios were tested to quantify which systems were more critical to recover for an earlier return to productivity - defined as the ability to work for one’s employer. The recommended system restoration order depends on the pattern of normal commuting behavior. In the NYC Metropolitan Area, a larger share of commuters use transit to commute than in any other US metropolitan area. This resulted in the model indicating the subway/rail system recovery as the most important factor for returning the most people to productivity. The second most important factor is widespread power restoration itself, which allows residents to telework while waiting for the transportation system to recover. The next most important factor is the reopening of schools and daycares (with associated infrastructure systems), freeing parents to commute. The remaining expedited system recovery scenarios tested using the agent-based model resulted in a faster return to productivity than the baseline, but to a lesser degree than the subway/rail, power, and childcare systems scenarios. Additional analysis of recovery shows that households with higher annual income benefit more from power recovery compared to those with lower incomes. Moreover, the effectiveness of recovery scenarios can differ based on residential location and the extent of disruption in that location.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 74〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Chaoying Yin, Chunfu Shao, Chunjiao Dong, Xiaoquan Wang〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Although the relationship between commuting time and residents’ happiness has been widely investigated, few studies have examined how the connection varies with urbanization levels. Using 7,774 individual samples across China, this study employs a multilevel ordered logit model to examine how commuting time is correlated with residents’ happiness. The effects of both the neighborhood and city-level built environment are revealed. Our findings show that commuting time is an essential factor correlated with residents’ happiness and the correlation varies across urbanization levels. People from cities with high urbanization rates (〉70%) have a strong mental endurance of commuting time, whereas commuting time is more influential on residents’ happiness in cities with low urbanization rates (〈50%). For the effects of the built environment, residents’ happiness is significantly associated with both levels of built environment in cities with urbanization rates higher than 50%. Conversely, residents’ happiness is only significantly correlated with the neighborhood built environment in cities with urbanization rates lower than 50%. Hence, to enhance residents’ happiness, urban planners and policy makers should consider multi-scale built environment characteristics and improve the public transport services according to local urbanization levels.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 74〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Min Zhou, Nan Kong, Lindu Zhao, Fuhua Huang, Song Wang, Kathryn S. Campy〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 74〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Hua Wang, De Zhao, Yutong Cai, Qiang Meng, Ghim Ping Ong〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉As a cost-effective and environmental-friendly transport means, electric vehicle (EV) has received widespread attention in the recent decade. The increasing market share and wider adoption of EV in transportation systems also bring about the energy use issues. In this paper, we propose a method to estimate network-wide EV energy consumption by taking into account battery degradation. We first derive unit energy consumption functions with respect to the battery degradation rate by quadratic regression method using EV operational data in the US. We then put forward an easy-to-implement and tangible method to estimate EV network energy consumption based on EV trajectories and the derived unit energy consumption function. In detail, EVs’ battery degradation rates are assumed to follow a given and known probability distribution and daily travel mileage of each EV is derived from EV trajectories. Based on these, we can get the expected total energy consumption in the network. We also propose a prorated assignment approach to determine the expected energy consumed by EVs through each EV charging point based on the estimated temporal-spatial charging demand distribution from EVs’ trajectories. A case study in Singapore is demonstrated in the end and the importance of incorporating battery degradation is highlighted. The results reveal that overlooking battery degradation would lead to more than 10% of estimation error in energy consumption estimation.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: August 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 73〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): 〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Haiyan Deng, Ruifa Hu, Carl Pray, Yanhong Jin〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉China has put in place a series of policies to support private companies to engage in biotechnology research. This study uses data from a survey of 103 major agribusiness firms in the agricultural chemical and seed industries in China to evaluate the impact of government policies on private R&D investment in biotechnology. The results show that firms with positive profit expectation, public R&D subsidies, R&D collaboration with universities/research institutes or state-owned enterprises are more likely to embark on biotechnology research activities. Past patenting activity, R&D subsidies and collaboration with public sector research increase firms' biotechnology R&D investment while firms already selling genetically modified products and firms that are state-owned spend less on R&D. Our findings suggest that government policy does have an important impact on firms' biotechnology R&D investment.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yong Liu, Jun-liang Du, Jin-bi Yang, Wu-yong Qian, Jeffrey Yi-Lin Forrest〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The research and development (R&D) of general purpose technologies (GPTs) is a collaborative effort of innovation involving multiple stakeholders, which has received extensive attention worldwide. Considering the characteristics of China's R&D of Nano-GPT, this research mainly makes two contributions: (1) Based on the theory of conflict analysis, a theoretical framework of Chinese GPTs super-conflict equilibrium is constructed to analyze the decision-making behavior among stakeholders, which enriches the theory of GPTs; (2) Under the framework of super-conflict equilibrium of GPTs, an incentive mechanism is designed to promote the R&D of GPTs from the perspective of cost sharing, and its incentive effect is stable and sustainable. In addition, taking “Suzhou Institute of Nano-Tech and Nano-Bionics (SINANO) of Jiangsu in China” as a case, this paper provides some interesting management suggestions through numerical simulation analysis, which are more suitable for developing countries with similar R&D situation in China's GPTs.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 20 March 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Joyce V. Zwartkruis, Holger Berg, Andries F. Hof, Marcel T.J. Kok〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In this paper three approaches on transitions pathways are combined to study the role of agricultural nature conservation in the Dutch land use domain for achieving internationally agreed climate and biodiversity targets. The three perspectives used are the Multilevel Perspective (MLP), Initiative Based Learning (IBL) and Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM). The analysis provides insights in how the combination of different research approaches can lead to more comprehensive policy advice on how agricultural nature conservation could help to achieve internationally agreed sustainability goals related to climate change and biodiversity. IAM shows under which conditions agricultural nature conservation could be consistent with European and global long-term goals regarding food security, biodiversity and climate. MLP provides insight into the extent in which agricultural nature conservation has affected or changed the existing nature and agricultural regimes. IBL, finally, reveals the challenges of encouraging agricultural nature conservation with policy measures. Our analysis shows that a combined perspective provides a deeper understanding of the underlying processes, reasons and motives of agricultural nature conservation, leading to more comprehensive policy recommendations.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 16 March 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Victor Chang, Yuanyuan Wang, Gary Wills〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This study aims to explore factors influencing behavioral intention to adopt hearing aids among old adults in smart cities. It argues that trust is a moderator to influence the relationship between attitude, subjective norm and individual's behavioral intention in smart cities. This study tests hypotheses using a sample of 103 respondents from six smart cities in China. The results reveal that attitude is main factor influencing individual's behavioral intention. Subjective norm and trust are both not statistically significant at the 95% confidence interval in the model of multiple-regression. Interestingly, it finds that trust moderates the relationship between subjective norm and individual's behavioral intention. It means that the audiologists' advice can positively affect person's behavioral intention in smart cities. The findings imply that the Theory of Reasoned Action can be partially used to explain the person's behavioral intention in Chinese context. This study contributes to encourage old people to use smart hospitals to consult audiologists about hearing loss and hearing aids rehabilitation. Hence, hearing aids can improve their quality of life (QoL), which can be reflected by the improved standard of living, better access to treatments and also the positive sentiment about their life, including comfort, friendship, happiness and a closer connection to the society.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 19 September 2017〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Raj V. Mahto, Olga Belousova, Saurabh Ahluwalia〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The economic philosophy of abundance has provided a new portal to view disruptive innovation. After decades of the world's middle class shrinking and the poor becoming poorer the abundance concept has created an interest in the “Rising Billion” transforming the poor into a more viable economic force and grow a worldwide vibrant middle class throughout the developed, developing and underdeveloped world. The abundance concept provides a new set of potential problems that are spurring new opportunities. The 21st century grand challenges have been enumerated by many but include at least six key basic human necessities: healthcare; water, education; food generation, energy, and the environment. The key to “Abundance” is to better understand the disruptive innovation phenomena, and how it can be used for social change. Scholars have utilized different perspectives to explain innovation phenomenon, but literature on disruptive innovation can benefit from a coherent theoretical framework that can explain origins of disruptive innovation and the role of scarcity/abundance in that process. In this paper, we provide one such theoretical framework to better explain and understand the relationship among scarcity, abundance, and innovation concepts from a market perspective. More specifically, this paper address the need to understand how radical or disruptive innovations occur to create a more abundant world and what market conditions motivates innovators, especially in communities enduring poverty and scarcity of resources such as the “Bottom Billion” and the shrinking middle class to do so. We build a theoretical model of disruptive innovation in a resource-constrained environment by integrating arguments from the theory of social capital, disruptive innovation and entrepreneurial action, and social innovation.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 12 March 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Nazrul Islam, Yorgos Marinakis, Mary Anne Majadillas, Matthias Fink, Steven T. Walsh〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The major challenges facing the 21st century world demands disruptive technology based solutions. One of the most promising exponential technology set to address world challenges is the Internet of Things (IoT) based Trillion Sensor System (TSS). The IoT supports many revolutionary commercial and societal solutions including wearable or unobtrusive medical sensors, Industry 4.0, power and water grids, smart cities, food production, education, transportation and roadway infrastructure needs. However, to support these solutions the current IoT infrastructure needs improved spectrum and the use of between one to ten Trillion Sensors (TS). The development of a robust IoT based TSS infrastructure would create an addition to world GDP equal to that of the U.S. GDP to double the worlds GDP. This new IoT based TSS would create a high paying job base that will form a new vibrant world middle class and an abundant economy. Yet while much is written about the ability of the IoT to transform society little effort is focused on its infrastructure. If this is true there is cause for concern. We add to the literature by developing a precursor road mapping construct which focuses on the service sector and supports 3rd generation road mapping techniques. We utilize the emerging IoT TSS technology base as our case study. We utilize the best thoughts of hundreds of experts from three organizations focused on accelerating IoT TSS road mapping efforts.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 74〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Shahin Zargarnezhad, Reza Dashti, Rouhollah Ahmadi〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Energy distribution companies use various vehicles such as Outage Elimination Maintenance Vehicles (OEMVs), Maintenance Vehicles (MVs) and Supervision Vehicles (SVs) in order to resolve network faults, to conduct inspection, service and maintenance activities and to monitor the integrity of operations. These vehicles have different levels of fuel consumption which concerns companies with regards to the cost and environmental hazards. Hence, it is important to know that a distribution company how many and what types of vehicles do need to predict the fuel consumption of these vehicles. Extra fuel consumption may be required owing to carry unnecessary equipment or used vehicles with large engine volume. Therefore, in this paper, the fuel consumption levels of outage elimination maintenance, maintenance, and supervision vehicles are considered. Then, given the fact that fuel consumption increases with the increase of vehicle weight and Engine Displacement (ED), the extra fuel consumption has been predicted using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). In a case study, the total annual fuel cost in the network under consideration is estimated to be $66750. In the case of a 40% increase in vehicle weight, the fuel consumption cost will rise by $24500, and when the engine displacement increases for a 500 CC, the cost rises up $17400 per year.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Matteo Landoni, dt ogilvie〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉This paper contributes to an understanding of the evolution of the space industry and the role innovation policy and industrial change have played in that process. It looks at the impact of business-government interactions on the emerging space industry and how it evolved from the consolidation of aerospace businesses to the government creating national agencies to support the industry (through the use of innovation policy instruments) at the same time that privatization of the aerospace businesses occurred.〈/p〉 〈p〉We conducted a comparative case study of the aerospace industry in three European countries—France, Italy, and the United Kingdom (the U.K.)—that explores the governments' strategies to develop the emerging space industry. These strategies comprise a mix of innovation instruments, including the establishment of government agencies with the mission of supporting the space industry. The space agencies in each country had a common design that enabled the businesses to become global players in the industry.〈/p〉 〈p〉There is a link between the design of innovation policy mixes and the emerging model of European decentralized governance. This paper contributes to the literature by suggesting that government agencies are instruments of innovation policy for developing innovative industries.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Klas Eriksson, Mirko Ernkvist, Christofer Laurell, Jerker Moodysson, Rasmus Nykvist, Christian Sandström〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉What is the role of innovation policy for accomplishing renewal of mature industries in Western economies? Drawing upon an unusually rich dataset spanning 9752 digitized archival documents, we categorize and code decisions taken by policymakers on several levels while also mapping and quantifying the strategic activities of both entrant firms and incumbent monopolists over a decade. Our data concerns two empirical cases from Sweden during the time period 1980–1990: the financial sector and the telecommunications sector. In both industries, a combination of technological and institutional upheaval came into motion during this time period which in turn fueled the revitalization of the Swedish economy in the subsequent decades. Our findings show that Swedish policymakers in both cases consistently acted in order to promote the emergence of more competition and de novo entrant firms at the expense of established monopolies. The paper quantifies and documents this process while also highlighting several enabling conditions. In conclusion, the results indicate that successful innovation policy in mature economies is largely a matter of strategically dealing with resourceful vested interest groups, alignment of expectations, and removing resistance to industrial renewal.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 74〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): William Brazil, Steffen Kallbekken, Håkon Sælen, James Carroll〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Transitioning to more sustainable transport behaviours is key to achieving national and international climate change objectives. Households can contribute to the new low carbon economy by switching to more energy efficient vehicles. In addition to societal and environmental benefits, such a change should lead to private benefits for households through lower energy expenses, while avoiding the perceived costs that could accompany a modal change in personal transportation (switching away from cars). This paper uses a discrete choice experiment (stated preference) to explore the effects of using alternative fuel cost labels on the demand for more efficient cars. Results show that reframing from fuel consumption (litres) to monthly fuel costs increases the willingness to pay for higher levels of fuel efficiency. More generally, these results highlight that informational interventions can be improved by framing information in a metric that is more salient and familiar to consumers.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 74〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Gabriela Codrina Tiţă, Marina Viorela Marcu, Gheorghe Ignea, Stelian Alexandru Borz〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 76〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Xiaolei Ma, Xian Zhang, Xin Li, Xingju Wang, Xu Zhao〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The development of bike sharing system (BSS) has changed travelers’ commuting and lifestyle in recent years. Whether BSSs are complementary or competitive to public transit remains controversial. This study uses a propensity score matching-based difference-in-difference (DID) method to evaluate the impact of free-floating BSS on bus ridership in Chengdu, China. The transaction data of bus service and BSS and the neighboring points of interest are investigated. Results indicate that, (a) on the bus route level, each shared bike results in a 4.23 increment and a 0.56 reduction in daily bus ridership on weekdays and weekends, respectively; (b) on the bus stop level, the increment in shared bikes significantly negatively impacts bus ridership on weekends; (c) on the route level, regarding the time of day, each unit increment of shared bike significantly increases bus ridership on weekdays by 0.54, 0.34, and 0.15 during a.m. peak, p.m. peak, and off peak, respectively; and (d) on the bus stop level, the relationship between shared bikes and bus ridership is insignificant on weekdays. This study reveals that the demand pattern of commuters strongly impacts the relationship between shared bike and public transportation.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 76〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Long Cheng, Freke Caset, Jonas De Vos, Ben Derudder, Frank Witlox〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Taking into account the rapidly aging demographic landscape in China, securing elderly’s right to participate in society has become an urgent challenge. Geographical access to urban amenities is known to influence social participation and integration. However, the application of accessibility analysis to elderly population in China has received little attention to date. This study examines the walking accessibility to recreational amenities for older adults in the Chinese context with an explicit focus on equity. Building on empirically-based estimates of a cumulative opportunity approach, we calculate the levels of accessibility at the traffic analysis zone level, evaluate how accessibility varies across age cohorts, and present the distribution of accessibility across zones. To this end, we draw on the 2015 Nanjing Travel Survey and the city’s GIS database. Instead of assuming a fixed threshold, this paper applies a spatial expansion model to allow for person- and location-specific walking distances to measure accessibility. The spatial disparities in access to recreational amenities are evaluated using the notion of vertical equity for identifying areas that are better-off or worse-off. Our results show pronounced distributional effects of current land-use and transportation policies for different age cohorts. In particular, elderly people experience lower accessibility to chess/card rooms and urban parks than their younger counterparts. The empirical evidence in this research can inform planning and policy interventions and feed current scientific debates on the role of accessibility in addressing social inclusion for an age-friendly society.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 74〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Johannes Kester, Gerardo Zarazua de Rubens, Benjamin K. Sovacool, Lance Noel〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Public awareness and acceptance of electric vehicles (EVs) are essential components to catalyse a faster uptake of more sustainable passenger transport as well as vehicle-to-grid (V2G) mobility. As such, public perceptions are central to decarbonize transportation and help capture the co-benefits of reduced local pollution, noise emissions, and oil dependency. However, we observe that the general public is often treated statically and seen as either problematic or peripheral to questions within the transport and energy studies communities. This paper asks two questions. First, given increasing adoption in the Nordic region, how do ordinary members of the public perceive EVs? And second, how do they perceive V2G? With these questions, the paper offers an international and in-depth assessment of public perceptions of EVs and V2G systems across five Nordic countries using original data drawn from eight focus groups. We find eight themes of relevance for future research and policy. These include often discussed insights like an EV’s environmental sustainability, range, charging or price, but also insights around themes like social status, sound, and acceleration. Additionally, we asked the participants whether V2G strengthens (or weakens) the desirability of EVs. The paper ends with a reflection on the knowledge discrepancies between national focus groups and individuals with and without EV presence and the different informational requirements that are needed to address them.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Alexander Sokolov, Sergey Shashnov, Maxim Kotsemir, Anna Grebenyuk〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉International cooperation in science, technology and innovation (STI) plays an increasingly significant role as it allows one to gain access to new knowledge, increase national competitiveness, jointly respond to Grand Challenges, and contribute to overall bilateral and multilateral political cooperation. International alliances aim to establish a win-win system of common STI priorities in order to coordinate their research efforts in a wider political context. Within such a system, individual countries have to use different policy instruments for achieving their own benefits via STI collaboration with foreign partners. The paper addresses the following research question: “How can quantitative analysis help better identify priorities for STI collaboration that provide additional benefits for a country participating in such work?”.〈/p〉 〈p〉A set of common STI priorities for BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) has been identified based on the analysis of strategic, Foresight, and STI policy documents and expert consultations. It includes a number of STI areas with a wide range of practical applications. Additional quantitative analysis shows how an individual member country can build its cooperation strategy by selecting particular thematic areas and relevant instruments for STI collaboration.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 74〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yuche Chen, Marc Melaina〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The future of fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) depends on its cost and performance competitiveness in the automobile market. In this study, we develop a techno-economic analysis framework to compare the cost and performance of major vehicle technologies (internal combustion, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery and fuel cell electric) under various progress scenarios for the years 2035 and 2050. We utilize a vehicle powertrain model to compare vehicle technologies with similar engineering performance and evaluate their cost competitiveness. We define the cost as (2018) U.S. dollars per mile driven ($/mile) during a certain ownership period and include the vehicle purchase price and fuel cost. Our results show that, in the 2035 scenarios, the costs per mile for FCEVs are 36% or 22% higher than those of conventional gasoline cars, based on a 5-year or 15-year ownership period, respectively. In the 2050 scenarios, the 15-year ownership costs of FCEVs are comparable to those of gasoline cars with comparable engineering performance. In all the 2035 and 2050 scenarios, fuel cell vehicles have a lower driving cost compared with electric vehicles with 200-mile driving range. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that hydrogen price and fuel cell system cost are the major uncertainties that determine cost competitiveness of FCEVs.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 74〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Bernd Herrenkind, Ilja Nastjuk, Alfred Benedikt Brendel, Simon Trang, Lutz M. Kolbe〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉The self-driving public bus (SDPB) holds the potential to replace human-operated driving with more eco-friendly means and is therefore a valuable mobility solution for our future. The SDPB is based on the innovative technology of autonomous driving, which can only be guaranteed future market success with broad enough user acceptance. This acceptance is thus an essential factor for the growth of SDPB services. In this context, the travel behavior of young people is particularly interesting, as its development will continually demonstrate future mobility behavior trends. However, little research has been conducted regarding the best methods for motivating young people to accept SDPBs as a viable mode of travel.〈/p〉 〈p〉To address this topic, we first conducted a literature review, identifying factors that potentially influence SDPB acceptance. Subsequently, we developed a comprehensive research model based on the life-oriented approach and the technology acceptance model. This conceptualization was validated by a survey of 268 SDPB riders in real-world traffic. The results reveal several novel factors influencing the acceptance of SDPBs, in particular regarding differences in age. Our research contributes to existing research on both the life-oriented and travel behavior approaches by highlighting age differences and their importance in the field. For instance, our findings demonstrate a vital need to account for age differences when deriving policy implications for future mobility solutions.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 74〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): S.M. Patella, F. Scrucca, F. Asdrubali, S. Carrese〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉This paper presents the results of a Carbon Footprint (CF) study of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) and their environmental impact on the transportation network. By assuming that fully AVs are battery electric vehicles (BEVs) with connectivity, light detection and ranging sensors, this study measures the environmental impact at the urban mobility level. The AV complete life cycle impact was firstly evaluated. Next, by comparing the current situation with a future hypothetical scenario (100% AVs penetration), the positive environmental effect of the adoption of AVs on a real road network (city of Rome) is shown. For this scope, a traffic simulation-based approach was used to investigate the effects of AVs on the network congestion.〈/p〉 〈p〉The results show that the full AVs penetration scenario leads to an improvement in the network performances in terms of travel time and average speed. The Total Time Spent (TTS) decreases (−35% for intra-urban roads and −21% for highways), and the average network speed increases (48% for intra-urban road and 37% for highways). Moreover, the final amount of Vehicle Kilometer Traveled (VKT) shows an 8% increase on longer extra-urban routes, due to the higher capacity impact of AVs on highways, with a consequent load reduction for intra-urban shortcutting routes. In terms of life cycle impacts, AVs are characterized by the highest Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions related to construction, maintenance and end-of-life processes (on average 35% compared to internal combustion engine vehicles, 22% compared to hybrid electric vehicles and 5% compared to battery electric vehicles). Nevertheless, a 100% AVs penetration scenario generates a reduction of the environmental impact at the mobility system level of about 60%.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 74〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jingjing Yu, Stefan Voß, Guolei Tang〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Shore side electricity (SSE) is the use of electricity from the shore to power a ship’s system when it is berthing at ports. It is a solution to reduce the emissions of auxiliary engines at berth and to improve the local and regional air quality. This paper develops a multi-objective model that integrates spatial and temporal dimensions for strategic planning regarding whether and when to retrofit ships to use SSE. The strategic planning problem is to maximize the environmental benefit and to minimize the payback period of the investment over the entire planning horizon. By adopting an improved multi-objective genetic algorithm (NSGA-II), a series of retrofit strategies for container ships calling at Dalian Port in China are obtained under a projected annual visiting frequency of ships with different ship sizes and shipping lines. Depending on a selected retrofit strategy, the sum of the payback periods of ships that are determined to be retrofitted is 46 years (on average less than four years) and the environmental benefit of using SSE can be up to 128 million USD for Dalian Port in the planning horizon from 2020 to 2035. The results show that using SSE is an efficient method to decline emissions within the maritime sector and validate that the proposed methodology can be useful to ship owners to decide upon investing in SSE applications and to promote the development of green shipping and green ports.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 17 March 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Armando Papa, Monika Mital, Paola Pisano, Manlio Del Giudice〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉According to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal No. 3 (SDG – Goal 3), for sustainable development it is imperative to ensure health and well-being across all ages, and is achievable only through effective and continuous healthcare monitoring. But in India and other third world countries, healthcare monitoring is poor compared to other countries in the world, in spite of it being affordable. The global healthcare smart wearable healthcare (SWH) devices market is expected to rise up at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 5.6% and by 2020 it is expected to reach 25 Billion (GVR Report, 2016). The growing incidences of lifestyle diseases, sedentary lifestyle, busy work schedules, technological advancements in healthcare monitoring devices, and increased usage of remote devicesseems to be some of the important factors fuelling this growth. Some of the major players in this segment are Abbott Laboratories, Philips Healthcare, Life Watch, GE Healthcare, Omron Healthcare, Siemens Healthcare and Honeywell International Inc. etc. But in spite of the healthcare monitoring devices are being predicted to be technologically innovative and providing advanced as well as basic health care monitoring features and available in various price ranges based on the features, we wanted to empirically study the attitude towards adoption of such devices in India. India has traditionally been having a very lackadaisical attitude towards healthcare monitoring. In such a context, what would be the factors influencing the adoption of SWH devices. Remote health monitoring can enhance the nature of wellbeing administration and to lessen the aggregate expense in human services by maintaining a strategic distance from pointless hospitalizations and guaranteeing that the individuals who need critical consideration get it sooner. This empirical investigation would provide a detailed insight as to how these wearable Internet Of Things devices would bring about a revolution in the healthcare industry. It would also provide the future prospect of IOT devices in this sector and how the probability of increase in its usage can be increased with time. The paper explores intrusiveness (INTR), Comfort (C), perceived usefulness (PU) and perceived ease of use (EOU) of SWH devices. The study hypothesized the Impact of PU and EOU, INTR and C on attitude and intention to use towards adoption of SWH devices. Partial Least Square Structured Equation Modeling (PLS – SEM) methodology was applied to explore the relationships between the concepts and hypothesis. The data was collected from 273 respondents. The age group of the respondents was between 25 and 40 years. The results indicated that intrusiveness and comfort do not have a significant direct impact on Intention to use BI (Behavior Intention) BI SWH devices. At the same time Intrusiveness had a significant impact on PU of SWH devices and Comfort has a strong significant impact on PU and EOU of smart wearables. The research has strong implications in the current emerging context of smart wearables, their design and effectiveness. Also the research can have lasting implications on elderly health and well-being. There are very few empirical studies in the area of SWH devices. Most of the studies till now are conceptual studies or providing technology architectures and frameworks. The research in this area is still at a very nascent stage and very few studies have been done to explore the use and adoption of SWH devices.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: November 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 148〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Chih-Chun Kung, Xiaoyong Cao, Yongrok Choi, Shan-Shan Kung〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Agriculture is considered to be highly vulnerable to global climate change which has significant influences on regional temperature and precipitation, thereby altering crop yields, resource allocation, land-use patterns, distribution of cultivars, farmers' behavior, and social welfare. To understand how agricultural activities respond to climate change, therefore, it is necessary to investigate farmers' behavior in the face of climate-induced crop yield changes. We extend the deterministic agricultural sector model to a two-stage stochastic programming with recourse (SPR) model to evaluate the potential changes in cropland utilization and agro-economic measures under climate impacts in Taiwan. We show that when farmers are uncertain the risk, land use could alter considerably. In such cases, approximately 55% and 26% of corn land and peanut land, respectively, will be used to plant other crops. When changes in crop yield are certain, farmers can maintain their income at a cost of higher government expenditures on aside-land subsidy and rice repurchase program. Because yields of many crops present a positive response to climate change, in some cases the net social welfare might increase by NT$800 million dollars (after subtracting NT$5.2 billion dollars of government expenditure) or 0.2% of total agricultural production, and most of the benefits are captured by farmers. These issues, as well as policy implications such as wealth redistribution and resource allocation are discussed in detail.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: October 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 147〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Hyungsoo Lim, Duk Bin Jun, Mohsen Hamoudia〈/p〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This study proposes a model that enables us to investigate the multi-generation and the multi-country diffusion process simultaneously. Many former studies focus on only one of the dimensions since it is difficult to integrate both dimensions at the same time. Our proposed framework can explain both diffusion processes by capturing the common trend of multi-generation diffusion process and the country-specific heterogeneity. We develop the choice-based diffusion model by decomposing the choice probability of adoption into two components; the first component explains the individual country heterogeneity depending on the country-based variables while the second component captures the common trend of multi-generation diffusion process with the generation-based variables. We apply the model to 3G and 4G connections across 25 countries. Empirical result shows that it is not easy to use individual country level model for most countries due to the lack of data points. Our pooled model outperforms several individual country models according to the fitting and forecasting measures. We find that each country's market competitiveness and the market price affect the rate of diffusion and show that random effects of 3G and 4G are positively correlated. This framework provides the fine prediction capability even with few data points and valuable information for formulating policies on a new generation.〈/p〉〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 74〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Sina Rastani, Tuğçe Yüksel, Bülent Çatay〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Electric freight vehicles have strong potential to reduce emissions stemming from logistics operations; however, their limited range still causes critical limitations. Range anxiety is directly related to the total amount of energy consumed during trips. There are several operational factors that affect the energy consumption of electric vehicles and should be considered for accurate route planning. Among them, ambient temperature arises as a key factor because cabin heating or cooling may significantly increase the energy discharged from the battery during the trip and reduce the driving range. Additionally, cold temperatures decrease the battery efficiency and cause performance losses. In this study, we investigate the effect of ambient temperature on the fleet composition, energy consumption, and routing decisions in last-mile delivery operations. First, we present the mathematical programming formulation of the problem. Next, we perform an extensive computational study based on benchmark data from the literature. For solving the small-size instances we use a commercial solver. For solving the large-size instances we employ an adaptive large neighborhood search algorithm. Our results show that the route plans made without considering the ambient temperature effect may lead to inefficient operations and disruptions. Specifically, the fleet size and energy consumption can increase by 46% and 81%, respectively, in small-size problems on average due to ambient temperature whereas the average increase can reach 15% and 68%, respectively, in large-size problems. Finally, we present a case study from a logistics company operating in Southern Turkey to provide managerial insights to both researchers and practitioners.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: September 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 74〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Alexandros T. Zachiotis, Evangelos G. Giakoumis〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The effect of various non-regulatory parameters on a vehicle’s performance and emissions is investigated in this study, i.e. road grade, presence of crosswinds, surface wetness, tire pressure and use of the vehicle’s auxiliary systems. The vehicle under study is a diesel-powered turbocharged light commercial vehicle, running on the WLTC 3–2 cycle; comparison with the NEDC is also provided. The results derive from a computational code based on an engine-mapping approach applying experimentally derived correction coefficients accounting for transient operation. The engine code is coupled to a vehicle model that calculates the main longitudinal dynamic parameters (tire rolling resistance, aerodynamic performance, gearbox efficiency) on a fundamental basis. Soot and nitrogen monoxide are the examined pollutants, with fuel and energy consumption and CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions computed and discussed too. From the parameters examined, road grade was found to have the greatest impact on emissions (CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉: +116.8%, NO: +107.2%, Soot: +100.7%, for the maximum road grade examined of 8%), followed by wind speed (CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉: +38.9%, NO: +33.6%, Soot: +12%, for the maximum wind speed examined of 80 km/h). Auxiliary power demand can have a considerable effect, mostly on fuel consumption/CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions (+13.7% for maximum auxiliary power demand of 5000 W); the impact of tire inflation pressure and surface wetness is comparably smaller. Among the two driving cycles, the WLTC proved to be more ‘sensitive’ to road load changes, due to the broader speed range encompassed and its highly transient nature, compared to the softer NEDC.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: January 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 138〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jae-Woong Min, Nicholas S. Vonortas, YoungJun Kim〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This study explores the factors that contribute to the commercialization of technologies transferred from universities and public research institutes (U&PRIs) to companies. We take a step further than the established literature focusing on technology transfer to examine factors that also affect the chances of the successful commercialization of the transferred technologies through an empirical analysis of 669 technology transfer cases in Korea. The study shows that the intensity of market competition is a key factor in moderating the effects of partnership and absorptive capacity on the successful commercialization of transferred technologies. While collaboration with U&PRIs exerts a positive effect on commercialization success, this effect is weakened by the intensity of market competition. The intensity of market competition boosts the importance of company absorptive capacity for the commercialization success of the transferred technology. We conclude that strategic management of the absorptive capacities of companies and their partnership with U&PRIs are necessary ingredients of the success of technology transfer in concordance with the intensity of competition that the company faces in the market.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 141〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Mabel Sánchez-Barrioluengo, Paul Benneworth〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉There is an increasing interest in the analysis of how universities should maximise their specific regional contribution alongside their traditional teaching and research goals. However, due to the institutional heterogeneity it is necessary to understand the process by which universities create regional benefits, specifically through their third mission outputs. To cover this gap, this paper investigates the extent to which internal institutional configurations affect the production of these benefits on the UK Higher Education sector. It focuses on four elements of the universities' structural configuration (〈em〉steering core, administrative machinery, internal coupling〈/em〉 and 〈em〉academic heartland)〈/em〉 in different university models: the entrepreneurial university and the (regional) engaged university model.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 30 October 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Sonal Choudhary, Rakesh Nayak, Sushma Kumari, Homagni Choudhury〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Drawing on theories of acculturation and information diffusion, this paper examines whether social media usage, intergroup contacts and information dissemination influence the cultural adaptation of three ethnic groups, and its implications on sustainable consumption behaviour. Twenty-four semi-structured interviews containing multiple dimensions of social media uses, acculturation, food consumption behaviour, and information diffusion were administered to a sample of Indians (living in the home country), British Indians (living in the host country for more than 10 years) and White British (natives of Britain) users of social media. Our findings suggest that there is a clear link between the integrated strategy of acculturation and information diffusion on social media, which influences acculturation to sustainable food consumption behaviour among social media users. Managerial implications of this research finding are that intervention in information diffusion aids acculturation through the social media, which serves to infuse social media and sustainability strategist with knowledge to best influence the consumers in developing sustainable food consumption behaviour. This research also identifies opportunities to expand this academic research and contribute further to the theories of remote acculturation on which limited research has been done.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: December 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 65〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Michel André, Anaïs Pasquier, Marion Carteret〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Low emission zones are frequently envisaged as a means of decreasing air pollution in city centres. In the present study, we used video monitoring to characterize the in-use local vehicle fleet at several points in the Île-de-France region (which includes the city of Paris), enabling accurate description of the type of engine and vehicle age and emission standard, which together determine their pollutant emission levels. Local vehicle fleets differed from French national estimates, as further confirmed by a Regional Mobility Survey. Both approaches (video monitoring and mobility survey) demonstrated geographical differences in the proportions of diesel and of recent vehicles. Economically advantaged areas, with lower rates of polluting and diesel-fuelled vehicles, are thus further advantaged as regards air quality and less affected by driving restrictions. Simulation of pollutant emissions demonstrated the sensitivity of the estimates to local fleet composition. They also raised the important contributions of traffic outside the city centre, of heavy vehicles and cold starts. Knowledge of the local vehicle fleet is thus important for designing low emission zones that will be effective in terms of air pollution and equitable in terms of geographical areas.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: December 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 65〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Laura Minet, Jonathan Stokes, James Scott, Junshi Xu, Scott Weichenthal, Marianne Hatzopoulou〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This study was motivated by an interest in capturing the factors affecting the exposure of cyclists to ambient Ultrafine Particles (UFP), Black Carbon (BC), and noise (LA〈sub〉eq〈/sub〉) across the entire bicycle network of the City of Toronto. Measurements were conducted along 270 km of unique roads, and we developed land use regression models and exposure surfaces. Median UFP, BC and noise levels recorded were 19,848 part/cm〈sup〉3〈/sup〉, 1224 ng/m〈sup〉3〈/sup〉, and 72.9 dB respectively. The average UFP and BC exposures along the biking routes (18,900 part/cm〈sup〉3〈/sup〉 and 1130 ng/m〈sup〉3〈/sup〉) were higher than the average levels measured at a fixed station located in downtown Toronto (13,300 part/cm〈sup〉3〈/sup〉 and 809 ng/m〈sup〉3〈/sup〉). The highest UFP and BC levels were experienced on dedicated bicycle tracks (30,000 part/cm〈sup〉3〈/sup〉 and 1600 ng/m〈sup〉3〈/sup〉 as median concentrations), while the highest noise levels occurred on major roads (median of 74 dB). In contrast, median levels on trails were 13,200 part/cm〈sup〉3〈/sup〉, 535 ng/m〈sup〉3〈/sup〉 and 70.2 dB, for UFP, BC, and noise. The exposure surfaces developed for the air pollutants and noise were intersected with the planned extensions to the bicycle network in the City of Toronto to evaluate the distributions of exposures expected across the future cycling network. We observe that the mean and median UFP, BC, and noise levels across planned facilities are equal to or significantly higher than the levels across the current network.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Graphical abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉〈figure〉〈img src="https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S1361920918301925-ga1.jpg" width="269" alt="Graphical abstract for this article" title=""〉〈/figure〉〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 70〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Tom Wenzel, Clement Rames, Eleftheria Kontou, Alejandro Henao〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper identifies major aspects of ridesourcing services provided by Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) which influence vehicles miles traveled (VMT) and energy use. Using detailed data on approximately 1.5 million individual rides provided by RideAustin in Austin Texas, we quantify the additional miles TNC drivers travel: before beginning and after ending their shifts, to reach a passenger once a ride has been requested, and between consecutive rides (all of which is referred to as deadheading); and the relative fuel efficiency of the vehicles that RideAustin drivers use compared to the average vehicle registered in Austin. We conservatively estimate that TNC drivers commute to and from their service areas accounts for 19% of the total ridesourcing VMT. In addition, we estimate that TNC drivers drove 55% more miles between ride requests within 60 min of each other, accounting for 26% of total ridesourcing VMT. Vehicles used for ridesourcing are on average two miles per gallon more fuel efficient than comparable light-duty vehicles registered in Austin, with twice as many are hybrid-electric vehicles. New generation battery electric vehicles with 200 miles of range would be able to fulfill 90% of full-time drivers’ shifts on a single charge. We estimate that the net effect of ridesourcing on energy use is a 41–90% increase compared to baseline, pre-TNC, personal travel.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Graphical abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉〈figure〉〈img src="https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S1361920918309878-ga1.jpg" width="298" alt="Graphical abstract for this article" title=""〉〈/figure〉〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 70〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Stefanie Peer〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper investigates the determinants of cycling in a rather unique setting: the relocation of one of the largest Austrian universities from the North to the East of Vienna (a distance of approximately 5 km). We analyze the students’ cycling behavior before and after the university relocation based on a large-scale (retrospective) online survey. Unlike earlier studies on cycling determinants, which often suffer from endogeneity, we can exploit the fact that the university relocation causes commute-related variables to change exogenously, whereas socio-economic and attitudinal characteristics as well as the trip purpose remain constant. We find a large positive correlation in the propensity to cycle to the old and the new university location at the person level as well as substantial heterogeneity in cycling inclination across students, which can only partially be explained by socio-economic and attitudinal variables. Moreover, we find evidence that past cycling times form a reference point for future mode choice decisions.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 27 March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Sonal H. Singh, Bhaskar Bhowmick, Dale Eesley, Birud Sindhav〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Grassroots innovation is rapidly gaining research attention because of its crucial role in entrepreneurship development. Although entrepreneurial orientation holds the key for entrepreneurial success, research on how entrepreneurial orientation impacts the relationship between grassroots innovation (GRI) and entrepreneurial success is critical. This research is still in its infancy and has not adequately been addressed. This study endeavors to fill this gap while examining how the three factors of grassroots innovation such as new grassroots learning practices, local solution and networking capabilities influence entrepreneurial orientation enroute to affecting economic benefits and non-economic benefits from entrepreneurial activity. The study involved data from 400 grassroots innovators and a structural equation modeling approach was used to fit the data based on the aforementioned factors and components. The study reveals that entrepreneurial orientation is observed to fully mediate the relationship between the following three linear dependencies: new grassroots learning practices and economic benefits, networking capabilities and economic benefits, and local solution and non-economic benefits. This study also found that entrepreneurial orientation partially mediates the relationship in the following cases: new grassroots learning practices and non-economic benefits, networking capabilities and non-economic benefits, and local solution and economic benefits. The results provide empirical evidence to support that entrepreneurial orientation spurred by grassroots innovation significantly influence entrepreneurial success in the Indian context.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 27 March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Léo-Paul Dana, Calin Gurău, Frank Hoy, Veland Ramadani, Todd Alexander〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Grassroots innovation projects have the potential to generate novel, bottom-up solutions that respond to local situations, interests and values – solving the social, economic and environmental problems of marginalized communities; however, these projects can raise important challenges during their design, testing, development and implementation. Although extant studies identify some of these problems, the literature and practice lack a comprehensive diagnostic tool that can effectively predict the potential and success of grassroots initiatives. For this reason, important problems are often neglected, and failed projects are not thoroughly investigated and analyzed, which leads to missed opportunities of corrective learning. This study addresses this knowledge gap, proposing a diagnostic tool based on existing theoretical frameworks, which is then validated by investigating a failed grassroots innovation initiative, in order to identify its major shortcomings, and learn to avoid them in future projects. The findings also outline the role and importance of a socially inclusive approach for an effective deployment of grassroots initiatives, clarifying the relationship between grassroots innovation success and local community involvement.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: May 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 70〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Emir Çabukoglu, Gil Georges, Lukas Küng, Giacomo Pareschi, Konstantinos Boulouchos〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉〈math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" altimg="si1.gif" overflow="scroll"〉〈mrow〉〈msub〉〈mrow〉〈mi mathvariant="italic"〉CO〈/mi〉〈/mrow〉〈mrow〉〈mn〉2〈/mn〉〈/mrow〉〈/msub〉〈/mrow〉〈/math〉 emissions of road freight transport may seem secondary to passenger cars, but electrification could eliminate direct emissions of cars. For heavy-duty trucks, it is unclear if substituting Diesel is even an option. We developed a data-driven approach to explore this issue: it estimates feasibility considering the daily operation patterns of every vehicle in the fleet. This paper presents results for fuel cell propulsion systems. If every Swiss truck drove on hydrogen produced exclusively by electrolysis, full decarbonisation would draw over 〈math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" altimg="si31.gif" overflow="scroll"〉〈mrow〉〈mn〉8〈/mn〉〈mspace width="0.25em"〉〈/mspace〉〈mtext〉TWh〈/mtext〉〈/mrow〉〈/math〉 of renewable electricity (〈math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" altimg="si32.gif" overflow="scroll"〉〈mrow〉〈mn〉13〈/mn〉〈mo〉%〈/mo〉〈/mrow〉〈/math〉 of the national consumption). That corresponds to roughly 60 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 of photovoltaic panels with 〈math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" altimg="si33.gif" overflow="scroll"〉〈mrow〉〈mn〉1.5〈/mn〉〈mspace width="0.25em"〉〈/mspace〉〈mtext〉GW〈/mtext〉〈/mrow〉〈/math〉 peak power. We found that current fuel-cell technology almost completely realized that potential, provided vehicles could refuel during the day. The autonomy range was generally better than with battery electric systems without significant weight increase (relative to the original vehicle). Refuelling could take over half an hour, requiring a dense energy infrastructure, able to refuel hundreds of vehicles in parallel to avoid congestion (i.e. vehicles waiting). The reduction of direct emissions was easily overcompensated by indirect emissions of generation: the Swiss consumer mix lead to virtually no overall reduction, while natural gas powerplants lead to a significant 〈math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" altimg="si1.gif" overflow="scroll"〉〈mrow〉〈msub〉〈mrow〉〈mi mathvariant="italic"〉CO〈/mi〉〈/mrow〉〈mrow〉〈mn〉2〈/mn〉〈/mrow〉〈/msub〉〈/mrow〉〈/math〉 increase. We concluded that hydrogen is technically a very attractive decarbonisation agent for heavy-duty vehicles, but significant investments may be required to ensure that (a) hydrogen production is truly renewable and (b) vehicles have adequate access to additional energy during the day.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: January 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 138〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Patrik Söderholm, Hans Hellsmark, Johan Frishammar, Julia Hansson, Johanna Mossberg, Annica Sandström〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Despite the key role of actor networks in progressing new sustainable technologies, there is a shortage of conceptual knowledge on how policy can help strengthen collaborative practices in such networks. The objective of this paper is to analyze the roles of such policies – so-called network management – throughout the entire technological development processes. The analysis draws on the public management and sustainability transitions literatures, and discusses how various network characteristics could affect the development of sustainable technologies, including how different categories of network management strategies could be deployed to influence actor collaborations. The paper's main contribution is an analytical framework that addresses the changing roles of network management at the interface between various phases of the technological development process, illustrated with the empirical case of advanced biorefinery technology development in Sweden. Furthermore, the analysis also addresses some challenges that policy makers are likely to encounter when pursuing network management strategies, and identifies a number of negative consequences of ignoring such instruments in the innovation policy mix. The latter include inefficient actor role-taking, the emergence of small, ineffective and competing actor networks in similar technological fields, and a shortage of interpretative knowledge.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 14 November 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Steven M. Miller〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Vanessa S. Tchamyou, Guido Erreygers, Danny Cassimon〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This study investigates the role of information and communication technology (ICT) on income inequality through financial development dynamics of depth (money supply and liquid liabilities), efficiency (at banking and financial system levels), activity (from banking and financial system perspectives) and size, in 48 African countries for the period 1996 to 2014. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments. While both financial depth and size are established to reduce inequality contingent on ICT, only the effect of financial depth in reducing inequality is robust to the inclusion of time invariant variables to the set of strictly exogenous variables. We extend the analysis by decomposing financial depth into its components, namely: formal, informal, semi-formal and non-formal financial sectors. The findings based on this extension show that ICT reduces income inequality through formal financial sector development and financial sector formalization as opposed to informal financial sector development and financial sector informalization. The study contributes at the same time to the macroeconomic literature on measuring financial development and responds to the growing field of addressing post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) inequality challenges by means of ICT and financial access.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 14 December 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): N. Coulombel, V. Boutueil, L. Liu, V. Viguié, B. Yin〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper investigates how and to what extent changes in user behavior may mitigate the environmental benefits of urban ridesharing, a phenomenon commonly referred to as “rebound effect”. Ridesharing reduces both the individual cost of car travel (through cost splitting) and road travel times (by decreasing congestion). This may trigger a number of behavioral changes among transportation users, including: making less detours to avoid congestion (〈em〉route choice〈/em〉 effect), switching from public transit and active modes to the car (〈em〉modal shift〈/em〉 effect), travelling longer distances (〈em〉distance〈/em〉 effect), and relocating further from the urban center (〈em〉relocation〈/em〉 effect). Taking Paris region as a case study, this research applies an integrated transportation/land-use model to evaluate several ridesharing scenarios and quantify the four rebound effects. The overall rebound effect is found to be substantial, cancelling out from 68 to 77% of CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emission reductions and from 52 to 73% of aggregated social benefits (including congestion, air quality, CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions, noise) expected from ridesharing. This is primarily the result of the modal shift effect, supplemented as ridesharing develops by the distance effect. Although the simplified representation of ridesharing in the baseline model calls for caution regarding these estimates, a sensitivity analysis corroborates the main findings and the prevalence of substantial rebound effects. The paper also investigates to what extent three complementary policies - improving public transit, reducing road capacity or increasing the cost of car travel – might limit the overall rebound effect and thereby maximize the benefits of urban ridesharing.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 11 December 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Scott Hardman, Rosaria Berliner, Gil Tal〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Most major automakers are developing vehicles with some level of automated driving capability. These vehicles range from those with adaptive cruise control to full driverless vehicles. These vehicles are collectively referred to as automated vehicles. The adoption of automated vehicles by consumers is not well understood. It is likely that the first buyers will be typical early adopters i.e. consumers who have different lifestyles, attitudes, and socio-demographic profiles compared to the general population. Using a questionnaire survey of 2715 consumers in 36 states in the USA, we investigate the attitudes of early adopters of one automotive technology: plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). This sample was selected so that the perceptions and purchase intentions of early adopters could be investigated. This is opposed to assessing the attitudes of the public who are unlikely to be knowledgeable about automated vehicles and unable to accurately assess the vehicles and estimate their own purchase intentions. This study finds that PEV early adopters have positive perceptions of automated vehicles. However, being a PEV adopter does not necessarily lead to interest in purchasing an automated vehicle. PEV adopters are clustered into 5 different groups with differing levels of interest in automated vehicles (from “Pioneers” to “Laggards”). The results suggest that automated vehicles are likely to be purchased by a small group of pioneering consumers. These “Pioneers” are likely to be high income consumers, with good knowledge and positive perceptions of the automated vehicles (on safety, comfort, and purchase price), and positive attitudes towards technology in general.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 67〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Anders Nordelöf, Emma Grunditz, Sonja Lundmark, Anne-Marie Tillman, Mikael Alatalo, Torbjörn Thiringer〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Ongoing development of electrified road vehicles entails a risk of conflict between resource issues and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the environmental impact of the core design and magnet material for three electric vehicle traction motors was explored with life cycle assessment (LCA): two permanent magnet synchronous machines with neodymium-dysprosium-iron-boron or samarium-cobalt magnets, and a permanent magnet-assisted synchronous reluctance machine (PM-assisted SynRM) with strontium-ferrite magnets. These combinations of motor types and magnets, although highly relevant for vehicles, are new subjects for LCA. The study included substantial data compilation, machine design and drive-cycle calculations. All motors handle equal take-off, top speed, and driving conditions. The production (except of magnets) and use phases are modeled for two countries – Sweden and the USA – to exemplify the effects of different electricity supply. Impacts on climate change and human toxicity were found to be most important. Complete manufacturing range within 1.7–2.0 g CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉-eq./km for all options. The PM-assisted SynRM has the highest efficiency and lowest emissions of CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉. Copper production is significant for toxicity impacts and effects on human health, with problematic emissions from mining. Resource depletion results are divergent depending on evaluation method, but a sensitivity analysis proved other results to be robust. Key motor design targets are identified: high energy efficiency, slender housings, compact end-windings, segmented laminates to reduce production scrap, and easy disassembly.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Graphical abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉〈figure〉〈img src="https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S1361920918302530-ga1.jpg" width="252" alt="Graphical abstract for this article" title=""〉〈/figure〉〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jermain Kaminski, Christian Hopp, Tereza Tykvová〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Crowdfunding is a relatively new gateway for entrepreneurs to access capital for creative and innovative ideas. It allows individuals to start experiments with new products and technologies where the outcome is distant. Yet predicting the success of hitherto unseen products and technologies is fraught with ambiguity and uncertainty. Early stage product experimentation and market access through reward-based crowdfunding, where potential customers provide funds for new unproven products, can therefore provide quality signals to subsequent financiers of new technologies. Our study investigates whether there is a long-run relationship between crowdfunding and VC investments on the aggregate and the industry level. We draw on a dataset covering 77,654 projects that successfully raised funds on Kickstarter and 3260 VC investments in the US between 2012 and 2017. The results suggest that crowdfunding Granger causes VC investments. Moreover, the monthly crowdfunding and VC investment time series are cointegrated. We therefore conclude that successful crowdfunding campaigns lead to a subsequent increase in VC investments. This holds at the aggregate level and particularly for hardware and consumer electronics, as well as fashion. These results enhance our understanding of the co-development between crowdfunding and VC investments. Reward-based crowdfunding helps VC investors in assessing future trends rather than crowding them out of the market.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 67〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Aliasghar Mehdizadeh Dastjerdi, Sigal Kaplan, Joao de Abreu e Silva, Otto Anker Nielsen, Francisco Camara Pereira〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The increasing complexity and demand of transport services strains transportation systems especially in urban areas with limited possibilities for building new infrastructure. The solution to this challenge requires changes of travel behavior. One of the proposed means to induce such change is multimodal travel apps. However, understanding the motivators underlying individuals’ travel intentions is essential to design and evaluate their effectiveness. This paper pinpoints and analyses the drivers and barriers that influence individual travel decisions when using such apps. The analytical framework relies on Alderfer's ERG model of human needs that relate the individual’s intentions to three domains, namely (1) Existence, (2) Relatedness and (3) Growth needs. Furthermore, environmental attitude, information privacy concerns and perceived difficulties when using the system are incorporated as to better explain user-sided heterogeneity. The case-study focuses on a new travel information system in Copenhagen (Denmark), which is not yet operational, through a technology-use preference survey among 828 travelers. Structural equation models revealed that the motivation for choices are specific to individual users and depend on wide-ranging factors that go beyond traditional economic and socio-demographic methods. The study revealed (1) different intentions among individuals according to the perceived value of the new information system, (2) a relation between different environmental attitude constructs and users’ needs, (3) a stronger appeal to use the system for individuals with higher needs of developing social self-concept and eco-travel self-efficacy as well as with lower perceived privacy risk and perceived difficulties, (4) that both functional and psychological factors affect adoption intention.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Graphical abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉〈figure〉〈img src="https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S1361920918304735-ga1.jpg" width="366" alt="Graphical abstract for this article" title=""〉〈/figure〉〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Edurne A. Inigo, Laura Albareda〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In this article, we build on dynamic capabilities theory to explore the organizational dynamics for sustainability-oriented innovation (SOI). We carried out a multiple case study of seven leading companies fostering SOI, searching for common patterns in their adaptation. We found three different levels of dynamic capabilities (adapting, expanding, and transforming) interconnected to strategic sustainability dimensions. We thus propose an evolving framework that explains how the generative variation of innovative change and adaption follow two interconnected logics that explain the SOI dynamics. First, we study the time-evolving transformation that encourages companies to transform dynamic capabilities following a path-dependent logic. Second, we study organizational transformations that enhance self-reinforcement among strategic sustainability dimensions. This conceptualization contributes to the theoretical underpinnings of SOI, providing new insights on how SOI transforms dynamic capabilities for innovation and adapts companies' strategic sustainability.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 11 December 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jiang Yu, Yating Wen, Jing Jin, Yue Zhang〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Providing, integrating and improving efficient public service in the construction of ‘smart cities’ in metropolitan areas have been showed to be difficult to achieve. In this article, we propose a strategy for developing service-dominant platforms with the advancement of ICT and more internet enterprises initiatives. We use the concept of SDP (service dominant platform) as a key contributor in a smart city's construction to explain how value can be co-created during the formation and evolution of the platform. Drawing on case materials from a Business-oriented platform named WeChat in Guangzhou and a government-oriented one in Shanghai, an analytic framework on platform and service innovation-relevant theories are built around the dynamic cyclical value co-creation, and three elements are identified in this process defined as value proposition, value in exchange and value in use, which consist of ten sub-elements on different SDPs along four dimensions, namely openness, services innovation, governance and resource. The study makes three contributions. First, it provides new evidence that pursuing smart city construction is not a mere technological architecture but a value co-creation oriented strategy. While facing persistent problems, China's paths exhibit significant and rapidly improving readiness for it. Second, the study provides new insights into, by positively bridging the linkage between platform governance and service innovation and proposing the service dominant platform (SDP) as a clear sustainable strategy. Finally, the study proposes two different resources-based models for guiding smart city initiatives in developing countries. By providing theoretical concepts to support public service innovation, identifying some implications for smart city developed in emerging countries, and suggesting some operational approaches to co-creating value against the local context, this paper has made a meaningful theoretical and practical significance about smart city.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Lado Kurdgelashvili, Cheng-Hao Shih, Fan Yang, Mehul Garg〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉To understand long term PV deployment, it is important to explore the underlying mechanisms that drive PV market diffusion. This paper examines the relationships between several social and economic factors and residential PV market diffusion on a county level. The Bass diffusion model was used to estimate diffusion parameters for 46 counties in California. Regression analysis was then applied to find associations between these parameters and several socio-demographic, economic, and political variables in each county. Finally, a Generalized Bass Model was employed to explore the price effect on PV diffusion. We have found supporting evidence of the inverse relationship between attainment of higher education and the coefficient of imitation. We have clearly shown evidence for heterogeneity between counties in one or more of our observed dimensions, or unobserved and possibly confounding factors. Although not significant at the conventional 5% and 10% levels, our Generalized Bass Model nonetheless supports the presence of price-based fluctuations in adoption rates.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 67〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Rafael F.F. Lemme, Edilson F. Arruda, Laura Bahiense〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Electromobility can be one of many solutions to the environmental challenge facing society nowadays, and the dissemination of policies towards the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) urges the development of studies to assess their actual benefits in contrast to both conventional and other alternative technologies. This work proposes an optimization model to evaluate the influence of the selected parameters in the economic and environmental dimensions of different vehicle technologies and the optimal fleet composition for small-scale car sharing. The model is applied to car sharing system VAMO, located in Fortaleza (Brazil), and the decision variables comprise pure electric (BEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and internal combustion engine (ICEV) vehicles. Baseline results are strongly influenced by the economic dimension, showing that existing infrastructure and well-established technology are great advantages for ICEVs and major barriers for EVs. In that sense, ethanol arises as a balanced alternative between costs and emissions. However, EVs represent a strong environmental appeal considering global emissions and local pollutants and even with economic losses in the short-term, investments in electromobility could come out as a positioning strategy in a future business with strong perspectives of growth, be it technological or in market share. The results suggest that all vehicle technologies will play an important role during this transition period to a desired sustainable mobility.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 67〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): J. Semeijn, C.J. Gelderman, J.M.C. Schijns, R. van Tiel〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Although it is often assumed that physically disabled people have different environmental attitudes and behavior, there has been very little empirical evidence supporting this claim. This study is the first to shed light upon the determinants of physically disabled consumers’ pro environmental purchase intentions. We gathered survey data from (net) 118 physically disabled consumers about their purchase intentions for environmentally friendly cars. Structural equation modeling is used for the analysis. The results show that attitude and social norms are important predictors of environmentally friendly purchase intentions. Both hedonic and functional motivation have an indirect effect, while attitude has a direct effect on physically disabled people’s purchase intentions for environmentally friendly cars. Apparently, physically disabled people value the opinions of others in their living and working environment. Notably, we did not observe an expected impact of behavioral control or lack thereof on the purchase intention of environmentally friendly cars. The study offers insights that can be helpful to marketing managers and policymakers in tailoring their strategies to the purchase intentions of physically disabled consumers.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 140〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Yuki Inoue, Masaharu Tsujimoto〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 141〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Gabriel Axel Montes, Ben Goertzel〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The accelerating investment in artificial intelligence has vast implications for economic and cognitive development globally. However, AI is currently dominated by an oligopoly of centralized mega-corporations, who focus on the interests of their stakeholders. There is a now universal need for AI services by businesses who lack access to capital to develop their own AI services, and independent AI developers lack visibility and a source of revenue. This uneven playing field has a high potential to lead to inequitable circumstances with negative implications for humanity. Furthermore, the potential of AI is hindered by the lack of interoperability standards. The authors herein propose an alternative path for the development of AI: a distributed, decentralized, and democratized market for AIs run on distributed ledger technology. We describe the features and ethical advantages of such a system using SingularityNET, a watershed project being developed by Ben Goertzel and colleagues, as a case study. We argue that decentralizing AI opens the doors for a more equitable development of AI and AGI. It will also create the infrastructure for coordinated action between AIs that will significantly facilitate the evolution of AI into true AGI that is both highly capable and beneficial for humanity and beyond.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 67〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Federico Perrotta, Tony Parry, Luis C. Neves, Thomas Buckland, Emma Benbow, Mohammad Mesgarpour〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉This paper presents an assessment of the accuracy of the HDM-4 fuel consumption model calibrated for the United Kingdom and evaluates the need for further calibration of the model. The study focuses on HGVs and compares estimates made by HDM-4 to measurements from a large fleet of vehicles driving on motorways in England. The data was obtained from the telematic database of truck fleet managers (SAE J1939) and includes three types of HGVs: light, medium and heavy trucks. Some 19,991 records from 1645 trucks are available in total. These represent records of trucks driving at constant speed along part of the M1 and the M18, two motorways in England.〈/p〉 〈p〉These conditions have been simulated in HDM-4 by computing fuel consumption for each truck type driving at a constant speed of 85 km/h on a flat and straight road segment in good condition.〈/p〉 〈p〉Estimates are compared to real measurements under two separate sets of assumptions. First, the HDM-4 model calibrated for the UK has been used. Then, the model was updated to take into account vehicle weight and frontal area specific to the considered vehicles.〈/p〉 〈p〉The paper shows that the current calibration of HDM-4 for the United Kingdom already requires recalibration. The quality of the model estimates can be improved significantly by updating vehicle weight and frontal area in HDM-4. The use of HGV fleet and network condition data as described in this paper provides an opportunity to verify HDM-4 continuously.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: January 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 138〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): 〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Francisco Liébana-Cabanillas, Sebastian Molinillo, Miguel Ruiz-Montañez〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉There is growing interest in our society in making payments using mobile phones as an alternative to using cash, checks or credit cards. The objective of this study is to analyze the status of Near Field Communication (NFC) mobile payment systems in public transportation, as well as the factors that affect users' intentions to continue using said systems. To meet this objective, a personal survey was conducted on a sample of 180 users with experience using this type of system. A comprehensive review of the scientific literature justifies the development of a behavioral model that explains the continuance intention of NFC mobile payments through a structural equation model. The results show that satisfaction, service quality, effort expectancy, and perceived risk are determining factors of the continuance intention to use this technology. Finally, the managerial conclusions and implications offer the companies that manage these public services new business opportunities based on user behaviors.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Barbara Ribeiro, Philip Shapira〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper advances an anticipatory governance framework to investigate and prepare for the potential implications of an emerging technology. Within the growing domain of synthetic biology, we draw on an end-to-end assessment of biosynthetic menthol that incorporates consideration of multiple dimensions of production and use. Based on documentary analysis, available data, and interviews, our approach unfolds in three steps. First, we map the sociotechnical transition in menthol production, comparing existing agricultural and chemical production methods with new biosynthetic processes – or what we call the biological (bio) turn. Second, we explore the rationales, promises and expectations of menthol's bio-turn and explore the drivers of transition so as to clarify which goals and values innovation is addressing. Third, we reflect on the opportunities and challenges of such a transition to put forward an agenda for responsible innovation and anticipatory governance. The bio-turn in menthol is analysed through five responsible innovation dimensions: the potential distribution of benefits and burdens; social resilience; environmental sustainability; infrastructure and business models; and public perception and public interest. We consider the implications of our analysis both for the responsible development and application of synthetic biology for menthol and for the broader assessment and sociotechnical construction of emerging technologies.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Rinie van Est〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This paper aims to clarify the political nature of parliamentary technology assessment (PTA) by reflecting on PTA's relationship with democratic policy making. This issue is raised in a political climate that is regularly portrayed as a ‘post-truth era’ and influenced by the rise of radical right populism. Democratic policy making is described in terms of problem structuring that depends on powering, scientific puzzling, participation and deliberation. Regulative democratic ideals, like political equality, truth, citizen participation, and ideal communication, are identified that drive these processes. These concepts are used to clarify the political nature of PTA in two ways. First the kind of political support for PTA within countries where PTA is or was institutionalized is explored. A typology of seven levels of political support to PTA is discerned. These degrees of support depend on whether PTA is performed by MPs or by TA experts, and to what extent MPs allow PTA to play a role in the scientific puzzling process and/or organize participation-cum-deliberation processes. To further clarify the political nature of PTA, three political attitudes towards the regulative democratic ideals are distinguished: affirmative, indifferent, and adverse. It is shown that processes of powering, scientific puzzling and participation-cum-deliberation can be used in ways that are guided by regulative democratic ideals (affirmative), ignore those ideals (indifferent) or undermine them (adverse). In political contexts in which indifferent or adverse attitudes prevail political support for PTA of any kind is very unlikely. It is argued that PTA can strengthen democratic policy making, when it fully acknowledges the political nature, and strengths and weaknesses of both scientific puzzling and participation-cum-deliberation. In this way PTA can connect to democratic forms of populism, and is well-positioned to counteract anti-scientism, anti-intellectualism, and anti-democratic forms of populism.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: April 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 141〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Nuno Bento, Gianfranco Gianfrate, Sara Virginia Groppo〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The growing literature on crowdfunding has mostly focused on the determinants of campaigns success, as well as on the legal and macroeconomic drivers of the crowdfunding diffusion as a mean to finance innovative projects. Still there are scant evidences on whether the returns for crowdfunders are consistent with the risk profile of crowdfunded projects. By studying 365 European clean-tech projects which raised capital via crowdfunding, we show that once the country risk has been accounted for, the returns are not consistent with the risks related to the technology adopted by the projects. Behavioral factors like bounded rationality or the cultural dimension of investors may explain this apparent mispricing of risks. While projects' returns are, on average, negatively related to risks, we find that projects offering better risk-adjusted returns attract relatively larger average contributions. Our results have important implications for understanding the drivers of crowdfunding returns and its sustainability, and particularly for its diffusion as an instrument to foster the transition to a low-carbon economy.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 21 July 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Lorenzo Ardito, Alberto Ferraris, Antonio Messeni Petruzzelli, Stefano Bresciani, Manlio Del Giudice〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The development of smart cities is becoming more and more based on knowledge management (KM) frameworks. This leads to new managerial challenges, which reflect the complexity of KM governance and processes issues of smart city projects as well as the need to manage knowledge that originates both within and beyond projects' boundaries. However, in-depth research on the development of smart cities from a managerial and KM perspective has remained scant. In detail, although universities are deemed to be responsible for the competitiveness and superiority of knowledge-based ecosystems, like smart city projects, the different roles they play in such projects when dealing with KM governance and processes issues are still understudied. Therefore, by conducting an exploratory case study of 20 smart city projects, this paper aims to scrutinize how universities manage the KM governance issue when internal knowledge is used, the KM governance issue when external knowledge is used, the KM processes issue when internal knowledge is used, and the KM processes issue when external knowledge is used. Results reveal that universities act as knowledge intermediaries, knowledge gatekeepers, knowledge providers, and knowledge evaluators.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 67〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Dafeng Xu〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉More than 50 bikeshare programs have been launched in the U.S. since 2010. In this paper, I estimate the effects of bikeshare programs on the prevalence of obesity at the county level. To do so, I merge bikeshare system data with obesity data released by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and construct a county-level panel covering the period of 2007–2013. I employ a difference-in-differences empirical framework, in which I compare the obesity rate before and after the introduction of the bikeshare programs in counties that have ever launched bikeshare programs, and use counties that have never introduced bikeshare programs as the control group. Difference-in-differences estimates suggest the significant public health effect of bikeshare programs: the introduction of the bikeshare programs leads to moderate declines in obesity rates; a possible mechanism is its impacts on leisure-time physical activities. I also conduct various additional tests to check the robustness of the above findings. These tests show that the conclusion of this paper is robust to changes to samples and empirical models.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jia Xu, Xiujie Tan, Gang He, Yu Liu〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Excessive price fluctuations would affect the effectiveness of Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and low-carbon investment. Therefore, the drivers of carbon prices need to be disentangled to analyze the price formation process, which is important for both policy makers and investors. By applying the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method, we decompose the historical carbon price data of the five ETS pilots in China into five groups of the independent Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) sequences and the residue, respectively. Then, the IMFs and the residue in each pilot are reconstructed into a high frequency component, a low frequency component and a trend component, thus disentangling the effects of short-term market fluctuations, significant events, and the long-term trend. The main findings are as follows. First, the IMF with a period around one year is the most influential factor, which reflects that pilots are characterized by the yearly cycle. Second, significant events have greater impacts than short-term market fluctuations, and are the dominant driver in Shanghai and Beijing pilots. Third, the long-term trend plays a decisive role in Shenzhen, Guangdong and Hubei pilots. The price stabilization mechanism is critical to avoid a severe imbalance between demand and supply in the long run.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Gloria Rose, André Gazsó〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉New and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology and advanced materials are characterized by manifold areas of application and high uncertainty, making the anticipation of effects difficult. Since 2007, the Austrian technology assessment project “NanoTrust” is dedicated to assisting policy-makers in issues surrounding the safety of nanotechnology applications. The choice was made early on to build and maintain a governance network and to take a more active role in contributing to pre-emptive risk management and the initiation of new processes. Characterized by a dominant risk frame and a broad scope, the Austrian nanotechnology discourse places a distinct focus on scientific expertise and strong interdisciplinary efforts. Ten years into the project, the Austrian nano governance network has shown signs of undergoing an institutionalisation process and we reflect on how we have sought to maintain our neutrality and independence as TA practitioners. This exercise in reflection seeks to gain insights on the strategies employed in practice when shaping technologies at stages of high uncertainty and engaging closely with actors in governance networks over longer periods of time.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Anja Bauer, Karen Kastenhofer〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉 〈p〉Over past decades, the notion of policy advice in technology assessment (TA) has widened, going beyond traditional advice in the form of expert opinions by adding a broad range of brokerage activities. Concomitantly, the roles of scientific policy advisors have diversified.〈/p〉 〈p〉Based on an empirical study of advisory practices at the Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA) at the Austrian Academy of Sciences, we ask which advisory roles TA practitioners adopt. Our study shows that practitioners take up multiple roles: the decisionist advisor, the deliberative practitioner, the governance facilitator, the engaged academic, and the agenda-setter. These roles vary, inter alia, in the dominant modes of policy advice and the aspired function in politics and society and correlate with specific project and advisory constellations but also with paradigmatic beliefs of TA practitioners. Our analysis further exemplifies how these roles differ in a) the reference to and interpretation of core principles such as scientificity, neutrality and relevance and b) their strategies of managing the boundary between science and politics. Thus, the article goes beyond the mere statement “TA has politics” by illustrating how the politics of TA manifests in distinct ways in different roles of TA practitioners in policy advice.〈/p〉 〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 22 December 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Francesco Paolo Appio, Marcos Lima, Sotirios Paroutis〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Smart Cities initiatives are spreading all around the globe at a phenomenal pace. Their bold ambition is to increase the competitiveness of local communities through innovation while increasing the quality of life for its citizens through better public services and a cleaner environment. Prior research has shown contrasting views and a multitude of dimensions and approaches to look at this phenomenon. In spite of the fact that this can stimulate the debate, it lacks a systematic assessment and an integrative view. The papers in the special issue on “Understanding Smart Cities: Innovation Ecosystems, Technological Advancements, and Societal Challenges” take stock of past work and provide new insights through the lenses of a hybrid framework. Moving from these premises, we offer an overview of the topic by featuring possible linkages and thematic clusters. Then, we sketch a novel research agenda for scholars, practitioners, and policy makers who wish to engage in – and build – a critical, constructive, and conducive discourse on Smart Cities.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 140〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Cameron Roberts, Frank W. Geels〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉This article investigates the conditions under which policymakers are likely to decisively accelerate socio-technical transitions. We develop a conceptual framework that combines insights from historical institutionalism and the Multi-Level Perspective to better understand the political dimension in transitions, focusing particularly on the mechanisms of political 〈em〉defection〈/em〉 from incumbent regime to niche-innovation. We distinguish two ideal-type patterns, one where external (landscape) shocks create a ‘critical juncture’ and one where gradual feedbacks change the balance of power between niche-innovation and regime. We also identify more proximate conditions such as external pressures on policymakers (from business interests, mass publics, and technologies) and policy-internal developments (changes in problem definitions and access to institutional arrangements). We apply this framework to two historical case studies in which UK policymakers deliberately accelerated transitions: the transition from rail to road transport (1920–1970); and the transition from traditional mixed agriculture to specialised wheat agriculture (1920–1970). We analyse the conditions for major policy change in each case and draw more general conclusions. We also discuss implications for contemporary low-carbon transitions, observing that while some favourable conditions are in place, they do not yet meet all the prerequisites for political acceleration.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 140〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Veland Ramadani, Robert D. Hisrich, Hyrije Abazi-Alili, Léo-Paul Dana, Laxman Panthi, Lejla Abazi-Bexheti〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Using Business Environment Enterprise Performance Surveys (BEEPS), this paper provides a multistage empirical analysis of product innovation and firm performance in transition economies (TEs). The Crepon-Duguet-Mairesse (CDM) model, a four-stage approach, is used to investigate the innovation-performance relationship. The multistage model allows studying the innovation activities of firms through multi-interrelated factors while controlling the issue of simultaneity and causality. The paper contributes to the research in this area by estimating the effect of innovation on performance through multistage equation modeling. It fills the gap in providing an understanding of factors that influence on product innovation - firm performance relationship in transition economies. This research is among the first to use product-only innovation to measure the impact of innovation on firms' performance. Findings indicate that product innovation has a positive impact on firm performance in transition economies, complemented by significant impact of specific control variables such as size, total labor cost, capital of the firm. Whereas age and competition from the informal sector, have a negative and significant effect on performance.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 19 December 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Brita Fladvad Nielsen, Daniela Baer, Carmel Lindkvist〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The planning of energy ambitious neighborhood pilots in Norway typically begin with the creation of holistic and socially ambitious visions based on extensive stakeholder collaboration, citizen insight generation and vision setting. However, as projects move from planning to implementation, the exploratory innovation methods are replaced by exploitative approaches. ‘The holistic vision and in particular, citizens’ described needs, fail to transfer into the implementation phase. This paper identifies four main challenges as to why this happens and link these to theory on ambidextrous organizations that need to exploit existing knowledge while reaching into the future with its rapidly changing goals and technological opportunities. Implementing stakeholders are familiar with exploitative tools, which build on earlier experience and capabilities of the selected implementing stakeholders, and the implementation stage leaves little time and resources for innovation on a lower hierarchical level. While extensive research on smart and integrated planning focus on ‘breaking down the silos’ meaning sectors and disciplines, our findings argue that the need to manage ambidextrous organizations and support both exploratory and exploitative innovation is equally important. An ambidextrous organization is one that has the ability to be efficient in its management of today's business while being adaptable for coping with the changing demand of tomorrow. We propose a model in which the organizational style and management style of innovative neighborhood pilots focus more on how to transfer knowledge and learn from the bottom-up and horizontally through management that foster both innovation models.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 67〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Na Chen, Greg Lindsey, Chih-Hao Wang〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Transportation, parks, and health organizations are collaborating to develop multiuse trail networks that meet the needs of metropolitan residents for utilitarian travel, recreation, and fitness. This paper describes how trails are used and explores correlates of trail use in the Greater Cincinnati region. Drawing on a systematic survey of users, we use ordinary probit and spatial models to explore the effects of socio-demographics, trip characteristics, attitudes, and the built environment, on recreational and utilitarian use. Most (89%) respondents report using trails for recreation; just 8.8% say they use trails for utilitarian purposes. Ordinary probit models show that users reporting recreational use are significantly more likely to be female, have incomes greater than $120,000, and travel longer distances on trails, but less likely to bike or walk to access trails. Transit connectivity is negatively correlated with recreational use. Trail users reporting utilitarian purposes are disproportionately male, significantly less likely to have incomes greater than $120,000, and more likely to take short trips on trails and to access trails by cycling or walking. They say they would commute more by cycling if connectivity were improved. Spatial probit model indicates negative spatial relationships among recreational users, implying the absence of a spatially-based common culture of trail use. Trail planners in this region can use these findings to strengthen the planning and design of trail networks and to meet the needs of different users. Given the finding most trail use is for recreational purposes, additional studies of the needs of utilitarian users are warranted.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 67〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Alexandros Sdoukopoulos, Magda Pitsiava-Latinopoulou, Socrates Basbas, Panagiotis Papaioannou〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Transport is widely considered as a sector with significant positive and negative externalities affecting society, environment and economy. The fact of incorporating the main principles of sustainable development into transport planning is of prime importance. However, moving towards transport sustainability is a challenging task; it requires a paradigm shift as well as the constant monitoring and intensive evaluation of the current conditions through broadly accepted methodological tools such as indicators. In this context, the scope of the current research is to provide a complete picture of the approaches which aim at measuring progress towards transport sustainability as well as facilitating the development of new initiatives by highlighting the major trends. Consequently, a considerable number (78) of sustainable transport indicator initiatives were selected through an extensive literature review. Accordingly, descriptive statistics was used regarding the main features of the examined initiatives, while an analysis focused on the 2644 included indicators was subsequently implemented. The current research illustrates the linkages among the sustainability pillars and the selected objectives/themes. It also points out the great variability regarding the hierarchical structure, categorizes the considerable number of themes found in the literature into smaller groups, presents the most commonly used themes and indicators, and finally proposes an alternative categorization of weighting schemes concerning indexes. An attempt has been made so that this study can become a meaningful operational tool for researchers aiming at promoting the relevant research by contributing to the selection of the most suitable yet compatible and scientifically valid methods for each case.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 67〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): João Paulo C. Araújo, Carlos A.O. Palha, Francisco F. Martins, Hugo M.R.D. Silva, Joel R.M. Oliveira〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉The energy or fuel consumption of the millions of vehicles that daily operate in road pavements has a significant economic and environmental impact on the use phase of road infrastructures regarding their life cycle analysis. Therefore, new solutions should be studied to reduce the vehicles energy consumption, namely due to the tire-pavement interaction, and contribute towards the sustainable development. This study aims at estimating the energy consumption due to the rolling resistance of tires moving over pavements with distinct surface characteristics. Thus, different types of asphalt mixtures were used in the surface course to determine the main parameters influencing the energy consumption. A laboratory scale prototype was developed explicitly for this evaluation. Data mining techniques were used to analyze the experimental results due to the complex correlation between the data collected during the tests, providing meaningful results. In particular, the artificial neural network allowed to obtain models with excellent capacity to estimate energy consumption. A sensitive analysis was carried out with a five input parameter model, which showed that the main parameters controlling the energy consumption are the vehicle speed and the mean texture depth.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 67〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Luis María Abadie, Nestor Goicoechea〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Over the last decade, marine engine engineering has evolved considerably, to the point where engine technology can be considered mature and reliable using LNG as fuel without affecting safety at sea. This paper analyses the choice between diesel or dual engines jointly and considers the alternatives of installing or not installing a sulphur scrubber when building a new vessel. The dual engine is more flexible because it can consume liquefied natural gas (LNG) as other marine fuels but the initial investment is more expensive. On the other hand, the use of scrubbers enables the use of marine fuels with high sulphur content in Emission Control Areas (ECAs), these marine fuels are usually cheaper also we consider Selective Catalytic Reduction technology (SCR) in all cases to minimize NOx. The paper calibrates a stochastic model for LNG and determines four marine fuel correlated prices. The work also considers a possible regulatory change from a non ECA to an ECA in the future. When we aggregate the installation costs to the present value of the expected combustible cost under uncertainty we can select the cheapest alternative. We obtain a minimum of expected present value of investment and fuels cost of 25.62 million US$ with a Dual engine with scrubber configuration. Our work shows that, in the cases considered, the use of a dual engine is the best alternative minimizing the total of investment and fuel costs. Finally, we analyse the distribution of fuel cost and its associated risks.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Graphical abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉〈figure〉〈img src="https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S1361920918310733-ga1.jpg" width="283" alt="Graphical abstract for this article" title=""〉〈/figure〉〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 140〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jean-Philippe Bootz, Philippe Durance, Régine Monti〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉In this paper, we introduce the themes addressed and approaches used by contributors to this special issue. Firstly, we underline that KM is approaching a stage of maturity that requires continuing efforts to use theoretical and empirical investigation to question its future evolution, through a foresight reflection. In parallel, we show that the link between knowledge management and foresight is of long-standing concern. In the context of a knowledge-based economy, this connection has taken on a structuring dimension. Thus, the purpose of this TFSC special issue is two-fold. On the one hand, we seek to explore the impacts of foresight on knowledge management and to understand its cognitive dimensions. And, on the other hand, we cast a future-oriented eye on knowledge management both as a set of practices and a research field. Finally, we present an overview of the topics covered by the selected papers.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 27 December 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Zhinan Wang, Alan L. Porter, Xuefeng Wang, Stephen Carley〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Technological Convergence (TC) reflects developmental processes that overlap different technological fields. It holds promise to yield outcomes that exceed the sum of its subparts. Measuring emergence for a TC environment can inform innovation management. This paper suggests a novel approach to identify Emergent Topics (ETopics) of the TC environment within a target technology domain using patent information. A non-TC environment is constructed as a comparison group. First, TC is operationalized as a co-classification of a given patent into multiple 4-digit IPC codes (≥2-IPC). We take a set of patents and parse those into three sub-datasets based on the number of IPC codes assigned 1-IPC (Non-TC), 2-IPC and ≥3-IPC. Second, a method is applied to identify emergent terms (ETs) and calculate emergence score for each term in each sub-dataset. Finally, we cluster those ETs using Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to generate a factor map with ETopics. A convergent domain – 3D printing – is selected to present the illustrative results. Results affirm that for 3D printing, emergent topics in TC patents are distinctly different from those in non-TC patents. The number of ETs in the TC environment is increasing annually.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 67〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): J. van Manen, V. Grewe〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Aviation contributes significantly to anthropogenic climate change, and one promising possibility for mitigation is eco-efficient flight planning by avoiding climate sensitive regions with only small changes in the aircraft trajectories. Climate sensitive regions result from strong spatial variation of the global climate impact of local non-CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 emissions, which are expressed by so-called climate change functions. Previous research established high-fidelity climate change functions (CCFs) for aviation water vapour and NO〈sub〉x〈/sub〉 emissions, and contrail formation with a climate model as inputs for air traffic optimisation. The mitigation potential in this case study is promising but the climate change function simulations are too computationally intensive for real-time calculation and thus cannot be applied operationally. In this study we show for the first time that this problem can be overcome by formulating algorithmic approximations of the global climate impact. Here we approximate water vapour concentration changes from local aviation water vapour emissions, ozone changes from local NO〈sub〉x〈/sub〉 emissions and methane changes from local NO〈sub〉x〈/sub〉 emissions (i.e. algorithmic climate change functions; aCCFs) from instantaneous model weather data using regression analysis. Four candidate algorithms are formulated per chemical species and traded off. The final adjusted regression coefficients, indicating how well the aCCFs represent the CCFs, are 0.59, 0.42, and 0.17 for water vapour, ozone and methane. The results show that the meteorology at the time of emission largely controls the fate of the emitted species, where the quality of the aCCF degrades with increasing lifetime of the respective species.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: March 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 140〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Shih-Chih Chen, Chieh-Peng Lin〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉With the prevalence of Internet, social media has become an important means for online marketing events. Individuals and companies both create fan pages on online platforms and develop business opportunities using social media. While many past studies have investigated social media, few have mentioned the effects of social media marketing activities. This study proposed the effects of social media marketing activities on continuance intention, participation intention and purchase intention via the mediation of social identification, perceived value, and satisfaction. To empirically test the effects of social media marketing activities, this study conducted an online survey on 502 social media users for data analysis. The analytical results indicated that social media marketing activities indirectly affect satisfaction through social identification and perceived value. At the same time, social identification and perceived value directly affect satisfaction that then influences continuance intention, participation intention and purchase intention. Finally, the academic and management implications based on the empirical results of this study are provided as references for the improvement of social media marketing.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): 〈/p〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jianwei Dang, Byeongwoo Kang, Ke Ding〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Technical standards in the mobile communications industry have been developed from national to regional and from regional to global. In the current era, global standards in the industry have enabled the formation of a single global market. However, because standard essential patents (SEPs) are territorial given the nature of the patent system, they can function as an opportunity or a threat depending on whether or not they are protected in countries of interest. This paper investigates how W-CDMA and LTE SEPs are globally distributed. From the analysis, the current study discovers SEP owners' strategies, future opportunities, and threats in their international businesses.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: February 2019〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 139〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Jooyoung Kwak, Yue Zhang, Jiang Yu〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Although existing studies have connected the emergence and development of e-commerce with infrastructure, culture, and regulations, we approach technological and platform acceptance from the perspective of legitimacy building. In our study, legitimacy is categorized into market, relational, and social legitimacy, and the link between each type of legitimacy and acceptance is explored. We select the case of Alibaba and argue that Alibaba was especially competent in building legitimacy. Alibaba's continuous efforts to build legitimacy facilitated platform evolution despite its exposed weakness in intellectual property rights. These efforts rendered Alibaba as a de facto standard e-business model. This research suggests that any firm that wants market acceptance for its platform or e-commerce technology should focus more on building legitimacy among stakeholders than on anything else.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 24 December 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Rainer Lempert, Jiaying Zhao, Hadi Dowlatabadi〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Carshare membership in North America has grown approximately 25% per year over the past decade. Some have attributed this to pro-environmental values and low-impact lifestyles of millennials, the primary users of carsharing. Many municipal governments have adopted this belief and support carsharing through various accommodations and subsidies. Results from a survey in Vancouver, Canada (which has the highest level of carsharing in North America) showed that one-way and two-way carsharing members have different motivations for carsharing and travel patterns. One-way members, primarily millennials, self-report that they carshare for convenience, using shared vehicles twice as frequently and private vehicles three times as frequently as two-way members. Two-way members choose carsharing for financial savings and a more efficient lifestyle. They tend to walk and bike more often than one-way members and the overall Vancouver population. These trip mode and frequency differences are consistent across age, gender, income, and geography. Perhaps as a consequence of the above, we also found that while one-way members are on average younger and wealthier, two-way members self-report as having more affordable lifestyles. These findings point to two-way carsharing members adhering to more efficient, sustainable lifestyles. Municipalities may consider these differences in motivations and trip patterns between one-way and two-way members of relevance in their carsharing policies.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 23 December 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Juelin Yin, Lixian Qian, Junjie Shen〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Sharing-economy platforms have gained momentum in urban areas worldwide by offering the potential for efficient resource utilisation and novel value creation. A recent addition to the mobility sector of the sharing economy is the dockless bike-sharing system (DBSS), which emerged in late 2015 with the aim of complementing urban mobility and contributing to urban sustainability. However, recently, debate and controversy have emerged about the potential negative consequences of DBSS. Building on the value-creation literature, and drawing on practice theory and the resource-integration perspective, we investigate how users participate in value co-creation and co-destruction activities related to DBSS. Through a thematic analysis of 8813 social media (i.e. Sina Weibo) tweets from April 2016 to December 2017, we find that riding experience is the most important practice in the core using process for both value co-creation and co-destruction, and that post-riding practices can result in significant value co-destruction. In the value-formation process of DBSS, the critical firm resources are product–service resources and relational resources, and the critical customer resources are emotional resources, relational resources and energy resources. We also argue the enabling role of peripheral practices in the transition between value co-creation and co-destruction. We contribute to the literature by proposing a value co-creation and co-destruction framework for DBSS derived from key social practices and resources.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 13 December 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Technological Forecasting and Social Change〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Marine Tanguy, Vishal Kumar〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Contemporary research into future cities tends to focus on technology, architecture and infrastructure. However, this study highlights the importance of public art projects for our future cities. Very little empirical evidence and academic studies exist to determine whether or not public art is core to the life and demand of citizens. Using a hybrid 〈strong〉contingent valuation〈/strong〉 (CV) and 〈strong〉wellbeing valuation〈/strong〉 (WV) survey approach (Bakhshi et al., 2015), we collected data at two public art initiatives organised by MTArt Agency. 60% of our sample audience were willing to pay at least £5 for the implementation of more public art in their local area, with 84% willing to pay at least £2, and 84% of our sample said regular public art initiatives would increase their wellbeing. A binary logistic regression model was then used to measure the extent to which Londoners are willing to pay for public art and which factors influenced their decision. This paper evaluates the potential financial support and desire from citizens towards public art in their cities. We find evidence to suggest that Londoners are willing to pay for more public art in their local area and discover a range of explanatory variables which influenced their decisions. We hope to add to the existing academic research by demonstrating a core need from the audience towards public art, particularly, a willingness to pay for public art projects to become an integral part of their city experience. It is important to understand the economic value of public art initiatives within smart cities context because it will allow policy makers, urban planners and developers to implement such initiatives in the future. With this innovative multi-disciplinary approach, we hope to enable arts projects to engage wider demographics, obtain stronger financial support and become a more meaningful integration into our urban realm.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉

Description: 〈p〉Publication date: Available online 28 December 2018〈/p〉 〈p〉〈b〉Source:〈/b〉 Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment〈/p〉 〈p〉Author(s): Liridona Sopjani, Jenny Janhager Stier, Sofia Ritzén, Mia Hesselgren, Peter Georén〈/p〉 〈div xml:lang="en"〉 〈h5〉Abstract〈/h5〉 〈div〉〈p〉Low-carbon mobility alternatives, such as shared services integrating light electric vehicles, support transitions to sustainable transport systems. However, new products and services are not enough, as changes must also incorporate the practices of travelling, infrastructure, and mobility cultures in which users of mobility solutions are core stakeholders. This paper argues that user involvement is necessary in sustainable innovation processes but that the expected diversity of user roles and their involvement can also lead to contrasting outcomes for sustainable innovation transitions. Guided by theory in user involvement, this study investigated users and nonusers of light electric vehicles in a sharing mobility service system set up as living lab in two large workplaces in Sweden. Fifty-one interviews with employees at the workplaces were conducted during the implementation process and analysed combined with a questionnaire and data from system tracking through sensor technology. The paper finds that both users and non-users are co-creators in building momentum for sustainable mobility alternatives and provides a spectrum of user roles with defined characteristics. Four roles are distinguished within this spectrum: 〈em〉vigilant users〈/em〉, 〈em〉passive collaborators〈/em〉, 〈em〉active decision makers〈/em〉 and 〈em〉ambassadors〈/em〉. We suggest that a 〈em〉convergent activation strategy〈/em〉 is deployed for involving a full spectrum of users in order to capture their insights in ways that positively affect transition. Such a strategy addresses users and non-users as part of decision-making concerning alternatives and cultivates a culture of user collaboration, while also enabling a plurality of contributions in order to challenge existing regimes and established practices among individuals.〈/p〉〈/div〉 〈/div〉