ALBERT

Description: Regional and local patterns in depth to water table, hydrochemistry and peat properties of bogs and their laggs in coastal British Columbia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3421-3435, 2013 Author(s): S. A. Howie and H. J. van Meerveld In restoration planning for damaged raised bogs, the lagg at the bog margin is often not given considerable weight and is sometimes disregarded entirely. However, the lagg is critical for the proper functioning of the bog, as it supports the water mound in the bog. In order to include the lagg in a restoration plan for a raised bog, it is necessary to understand the hydrological characteristics and functions of this rarely studied transition zone. We studied 13 coastal British Columbia (BC) bogs and identified two different gradients in depth to water table, hydrochemistry and peat properties: (1) a local bog expanse–bog margin gradient, and (2) a regional gradient related to climate and proximity to the ocean. Depth to water table generally increased across the transition from bog expanse to bog margin. In the bog expanse, pH was above 4.2 in the Pacific Oceanic wetland region (cooler and wetter climate) and below 4.3 in the Pacific Temperate wetland region (warmer and drier climate). Both pH and pH-corrected electrical conductivity increased significantly across the transition from bog expanse to bog margin, though not in all cases. Na + and Mg 2+ concentrations were generally highest in exposed, oceanic bogs and lower in inland bogs. Ash content in peat samples increased across the bog expanse–bog margin transition, and appears to be a useful abiotic indicator of the location of the bog margin. The observed variation in the hydrological and hydrochemical gradients across the bog expanse–bog margin transition highlights both local and regional diversity of bogs and their associated laggs.

Description: Bayesian networks modelling in support to cross-cutting analysis of water supply and sanitation in developing countries Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3397-3419, 2013 Author(s): C. Dondeynaz, J. López Puga, and C. Carmona Moreno Despite the efforts made towards the Millennium Development Goals targets during the last decade, improved access to water supply or basic sanitation still remains unavailable for millions of people across the world. This paper proposes a set of models that use 25 key variables and country profiles from the WatSan4Dev data set involving water supply and sanitation (Dondeynaz et al., 2012). This paper suggests the use of Bayesian network modelling methods because they are more easily adapted to deal with non-normal distributions, and integrate a qualitative approach for data analysis. They also offer the advantage of integrating preliminary knowledge into the probabilistic models. The statistical performance of the proposed models ranges between 20 and 5% error rates, which are very satisfactory taking into account the strong heterogeneity of variables. Probabilistic scenarios run from the models allow an assessment of the relationships between human development, external support, governance aspects, economic activities and water supply and sanitation (WSS) access. According to models proposed in this paper, gaining a strong poverty reduction will require the WSS access to reach 75–76% through: (1) the management of ongoing urbanisation processes to avoid slums development; and (2) the improvement of health care, for instance for children. Improving governance, such as institutional efficiency, capacities to make and apply rules, or control of corruption is positively associated with WSS sustainable development. The first condition for an increment of the HDP (human development and poverty) remains of course an improvement of the economic conditions with higher household incomes. Moreover, a significant country commitment to the environment, associated with civil society freedom of expression constitutes a favourable setting for sustainable WSS services delivery. Intensive agriculture using irrigation practises also appears as a mean for sustainable WSS thanks to multi-uses and complementarities. With a WSS sector organised at national level, irrigation practices can support the structuring and efficiency of the agriculture sector. It may then induce rural development in areas where WSS access often is set back compared to urban areas 1 . External financial support, called Official Development Assistance (ODA CI), plays a role in WSS improvement but comes last in the sensitivity analyses of models. An overall 47% of the Official Development Assistance goes first to poor countries, and is associated to governance aspects: (1) political stability and (2) country commitment to the environment and civil society degree of freedom. These governance aspects constitute a good framework for aid implementation in recipient countries. Modelling is run with the five groups of countries as defined in Dondeynaz et al. (2012). Models for profile 4 (essential external support) and profile 5 (primary material consumption) are specifically detailed and analysed in this paper. For countries in profile 4, fighting against water scarcity and progressing desertification should be the priority. However, for countries in profile 5, efforts should first concentrate on consolidation of political stability while supporting diversification of the economic activities. Nevertheless, for both profiles, reduction of poverty should remain the first priority as previously indicated. 1 JMP statistics, 2004 http://www.wssinfo.org/data-estimates/table/ , last access: 22 July 2013.

Description: Technical Note: A comparison of model and empirical measures of catchment-scale effective energy and mass transfer Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3389-3395, 2013 Author(s): C. Rasmussen and E. L. Gallo Recent work suggests that a coupled effective energy and mass transfer (EEMT) term, which includes the energy associated with effective precipitation and primary production, may serve as a robust prediction parameter of critical zone structure and function. However, the models used to estimate EEMT have been solely based on long-term climatological data with little validation using direct empirical measures of energy, water, and carbon balances. Here we compare catchment-scale EEMT estimates generated using two distinct approaches: (1) EEMT modeled using the established methodology based on estimates of monthly effective precipitation and net primary production derived from climatological data, and (2) empirical catchment-scale EEMT estimated using data from 86 catchments of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) and MOD17A3 annual net primary production (NPP) product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Results indicated positive and significant linear correspondence ( R 2 = 0.75; P 〈 0.001) between model and empirical measures with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.86 MJ m −2 yr −1 . Modeled EEMT values were consistently greater than empirical measures of EEMT. Empirical catchment estimates of the energy associated with effective precipitation ( E PPT ) were calculated using a mass balance approach that accounts for water losses to quick surface runoff not accounted for in the climatologically modeled E PPT . Similarly, local controls on primary production such as solar radiation and nutrient limitation were not explicitly included in the climatologically based estimates of energy associated with primary production ( E BIO ), whereas these were captured in the remotely sensed MODIS NPP data. These differences likely explain the greater estimate of modeled EEMT relative to the empirical measures. There was significant positive correlation between catchment aridity and the fraction of EEMT partitioned into E BIO ( F BIO ), with an increase in F BIO as a fraction of the total as aridity increases and percentage of catchment woody plant cover decreases. In summary, the data indicated strong correspondence between model and empirical measures of EEMT with limited bias that agree well with other empirical measures of catchment energy and water partitioning and plant cover.

Description: Laboratory studies of immersion and deposition mode ice nucleation of ozone aged mineral dust particles Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9097-9118, 2013 Author(s): Z. A. Kanji, A. Welti, C. Chou, O. Stetzer, and U. Lohmann Ice nucleation in the atmosphere is central to the understanding the microphysical properties of mixed-phase and cirrus clouds. Ambient conditions such as temperature ( T ) and relative humidity (RH), as well as aerosol properties such as chemical composition and mixing state play an important role in predicting ice formation in the troposphere. Previous field studies have reported the absence of sulfate and organic compounds on mineral dust ice crystal residuals sampled at mountain top stations or aircraft based measurements despite the long-range transport mineral dust is subjected to. We present laboratory studies of ice nucleation for immersion and deposition mode on ozone aged mineral dust particles for 233 〈 T 〈 263 K. Heterogeneous ice nucleation of untreated kaolinite (Ka) and Arizona Test Dust (ATD) particles is compared to corresponding aged particles that are subjected to ozone concentrations of 0.4–4.3 ppmv in a stainless steel aerosol tank. The portable ice nucleation counter (PINC) and immersion chamber combined with the Zurich ice nucleation chamber (IMCA-ZINC) are used to conduct deposition and immersion mode measurements, respectively. Ice active fractions as well as ice active surface site densities ( n s ) are reported and observed to increase as a function of decreasing temperature. We present first results that demonstrate enhancement of the ice nucleation ability of aged mineral dust particles in both the deposition and immersion mode due to ageing. We also present the first results to show a suppression of heterogeneous ice nucleation activity without the condensation of a coating of (in)organic material. In immersion mode, low ozone exposed Ka particles showed enhanced ice activity requiring a median freezing temperature of 1.5 K warmer than that of untreated Ka, whereas high ozone exposed ATD particles showed suppressed ice nucleation requiring a median freezing temperature of 3 K colder than that of untreated ATD. In deposition mode, low exposure Ka had ice active fractions of an order of magnitude higher than untreated Ka, whereas high ozone exposed ATD had ice active fractions up to a factor of 4 lower than untreated ATD. From our results, we derive and present parameterizations in terms of n s ( T ) that can be used in models to predict ice nuclei concentrations based on available aerosol surface area.

Description: Contribution of directly connected and isolated impervious areas to urban drainage network hydrographs Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3473-3483, 2013 Author(s): Y. Seo, N.-J. Choi, and A. R. Schmidt This paper addresses the mass balance error observed in runoff hydrographs in urban watersheds by introducing assumptions regarding the contribution of infiltrated rainfall from pervious areas and isolated impervious area (IIA) to the runoff hydrograph. Rainfall infiltrating into pervious areas has been assumed not to contribute to the runoff hydrograph until Hortonian excess rainfall occurs. However, mass balance analysis in an urban watershed indicates that rainfall infiltrated to pervious areas can contribute directly to the runoff hydrograph, thereby offering an explanation for the long hydrograph tail commonly observed in runoff from urban storm sewers. In this study, a hydrologic analysis based on the width function is introduced, with two types of width functions obtained from both pervious and impervious areas, respectively. The width function can be regarded as the direct interpretation of the network response. These two width functions are derived to obtain distinct response functions for directly connected impervious areas (DCIA), IIA, and pervious areas. The results show significant improvement in the estimation of runoff hydrographs and suggest the need to consider the flow contribution from pervious areas to the runoff hydrograph. It also implies that additional contribution from flow paths through joints and cracks in sewer pipes needs to be taken into account to improve the estimation of runoff hydrographs in urban catchments.

Description: A plume-in-grid approach to characterize air quality impacts of aircraft emissions at the Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9285-9302, 2013 Author(s): J. Rissman, S. Arunachalam, M. Woody, J. J. West, T. BenDor, and F. S. Binkowski This study examined the impacts of aircraft emissions during the landing and takeoff cycle on PM 2.5 concentrations during the months of June and July 2002 at the Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport. Primary and secondary pollutants were modeled using the Advanced Modeling System for Transport, Emissions, Reactions, and Deposition of Atmospheric Matter (AMSTERDAM). AMSTERDAM is a modified version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that incorporates a plume-in-grid process to simulate emissions sources of interest at a finer scale than can be achieved using CMAQ's model grid. Three fundamental issues were investigated: the effects of aircraft on PM 2.5 concentrations throughout northern Georgia, the differences resulting from use of AMSTERDAM's plume-in-grid process rather than a traditional CMAQ simulation, and the concentrations observed in aircraft plumes at subgrid scales. Comparison of model results with an air quality monitor located in the vicinity of the airport found that normalized mean bias ranges from −77.5% to 6.2% and normalized mean error ranges from 40.4% to 77.5%, varying by species. Aircraft influence average PM 2.5 concentrations by up to 0.232 μg m −3 near the airport and by 0.001–0.007 μg m −3 throughout the Atlanta metro area. The plume-in-grid process increases concentrations of secondary PM pollutants by 0.005–0.020 μg m −3 (compared to the traditional grid-based treatment) but reduces the concentration of non-reactive primary PM pollutants by up to 0.010 μg m −3 , with changes concentrated near the airport. Examination of subgrid-scale results indicates that median aircraft contribution to grid cells is higher than median puff concentration in the airport's grid cell and outside of a 20 km × 20 km square area centered on the airport, while in a 12 km × 12 km square ring centered on the airport, puffs have median concentrations over an order of magnitude higher than aircraft contribution to the grid cells. Maximum puff impacts are seen within the 12 km × 12 km ring, not in the airport's own grid cell, while maximum grid cell impacts occur within the airport's grid cell. Twenty-one (21)% of all aircraft-related puffs from the Atlanta airport have at least 0.1 μg m −3 PM 2.5 concentrations. Near the airport, median daily puff concentrations vary between 0.017 and 0.134 μg m −3 (0.05 and 0.35 μg m −3 at ground level), while maximum daily puff concentrations vary between 6.1 and 42.1 μg m −3 (7.5 and 42.1 μg m −3 at ground level) during the 2-month period. In contrast, median daily aircraft contribution to grid concentrations varies between 0.015 and 0.091 μg m −3 (0.09 and 0.40 μg m −3 at ground level), while the maximum varies between 0.75 and 2.55 μg m −3 (0.75 and 2.0 μg m −3 at ground level). Future researchers may consider using a plume-in-grid process, such as the one used here, to understand the impacts of aircraft emissions at other airports, for proposed future airports, for airport expansion projects under various future scenarios, and for other national-scale studies specifically when the maximum impacts at fine scales are of interest.

Description: Corrigendum to "Atmospheric column-averaged mole fractions of carbon dioxide at 53 aircraft measurement sites" published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13, 5265–5275, 2013 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9213-9216, 2013 Author(s): Y. Miyamoto, M. Inoue, I. Morino, O. Uchino, T. Yokota, T. Machida, Y. Sawa, H. Matsueda, C. Sweeney, P. P. Tans, A. E. Andrews, S. C. Biraud, and P. K. Patra No abstract available.

Description: Regional CO 2 flux estimates for 2009–2010 based on GOSAT and ground-based CO 2 observations Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9351-9373, 2013 Author(s): S. Maksyutov, H. Takagi, V. K. Valsala, M. Saito, T. Oda, T. Saeki, D. A. Belikov, R. Saito, A. Ito, Y. Yoshida, I. Morino, O. Uchino, R. J. Andres, and T. Yokota We present the application of a global carbon cycle modeling system to the estimation of monthly regional CO 2 fluxes from the column-averaged mole fractions of CO 2 ( X CO 2 ) retrieved from spectral observations made by the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). The regional flux estimates are to be publicly disseminated as the GOSAT Level 4 data product. The forward modeling components of the system include an atmospheric tracer transport model, an anthropogenic emissions inventory, a terrestrial biosphere exchange model, and an oceanic flux model. The atmospheric tracer transport was simulated using isentropic coordinates in the stratosphere and was tuned to reproduce the age of air. We used a fossil fuel emission inventory based on large point source data and observations of nighttime lights. The terrestrial biospheric model was optimized by fitting model parameters to observed atmospheric CO 2 seasonal cycle, net primary production data, and a biomass distribution map. The oceanic surface p CO 2 distribution was estimated with a 4-D variational data assimilation system based on reanalyzed ocean currents. Monthly CO 2 fluxes of 64 sub-continental regions, between June 2009 and May 2010, were estimated from GOSAT FTS SWIR Level 2 X CO 2 retrievals (ver. 02.00) gridded to 5° × 5° cells and averaged on a monthly basis and monthly-mean GLOBALVIEW-CO 2 data. Our result indicated that adding the GOSAT X CO 2 retrievals to the GLOBALVIEW data in the flux estimation brings changes to fluxes of tropics and other remote regions where the surface-based data are sparse. The uncertainties of these remote fluxes were reduced by as much as 60% through such addition. Optimized fluxes estimated for many of these regions, were brought closer to the prior fluxes by the addition of the GOSAT retrievals. In most of the regions and seasons considered here, the estimated fluxes fell within the range of natural flux variabilities estimated with the component models.

Description: Global ozone–CO correlations from OMI and AIRS: constraints on tropospheric ozone sources Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9321-9335, 2013 Author(s): P. S. Kim, D. J. Jacob, X. Liu, J. X. Warner, K. Yang, K. Chance, V. Thouret, and P. Nedelec We present a global data set of free tropospheric ozone–CO correlations with 2° × 2.5° spatial resolution from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) satellite instruments for each season of 2008. OMI and AIRS have near-daily global coverage of ozone and CO respectively and observe coincident scenes with similar vertical sensitivities. The resulting ozone–CO correlations are highly statistically significant (positive or negative) in most regions of the world, and are less noisy than previous satellite-based studies that used sparser data. Comparison with ozone–CO correlations and regression slopes ( d O 3 / d CO) from MOZAIC (Measurements of OZone, water vapour, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides by in-service AIrbus airCraft) aircraft profiles shows good general agreement. We interpret the observed ozone–CO correlations with the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System)-Chem chemical transport model to infer constraints on ozone sources. Driving GEOS-Chem with different meteorological fields generally shows consistent ozone–CO correlation patterns, except in some tropical regions where the correlations are strongly sensitive to model transport error associated with deep convection. GEOS-Chem reproduces the general structure of the observed ozone–CO correlations and regression slopes, although there are some large regional discrepancies. We examine the model sensitivity of d O 3 / d CO to different ozone sources (combustion, biosphere, stratosphere, and lightning NO x ) by correlating the ozone change from that source to CO from the standard simulation. The model reproduces the observed positive d O 3 / d CO in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere in spring–summer, driven by combustion sources. Stratospheric influence there is also associated with a positive d O 3 / d CO because of the interweaving of stratospheric downwelling with continental outflow. The well-known ozone maximum over the tropical South Atlantic is associated with negative d O 3 / d CO in the observations; this feature is reproduced in GEOS-Chem and supports a dominant contribution from lightning to the ozone maximum. A major model discrepancy is found over the northeastern Pacific in summer–fall where d O 3 / d CO is positive in the observations but negative in the model, for all ozone sources. We suggest that this reflects a model overestimate of lightning at northern midlatitudes combined with an underestimate of the East Asian CO source.

Description: Emission ratio and isotopic signatures of molecular hydrogen emissions from tropical biomass burning Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9401-9413, 2013 Author(s): F. A. Haumann, A. M. Batenburg, G. Pieterse, C. Gerbig, M. C. Krol, and T. Röckmann In this study, we identify a biomass-burning signal in molecular hydrogen (H 2 ) over the Amazonian tropical rainforest. To quantify this signal, we measure the mixing ratios of H 2 and several other species as well as the H 2 isotopic composition in air samples that were collected in the BARCA (Balanço Atmosférico Regional de Carbono na Amazônia) aircraft campaign during the dry season. We derive a relative H 2 emission ratio with respect to carbon monoxide (CO) of 0.31 ± 0.04 ppb ppb −1 and an isotopic source signature of −280 ± 41‰ in the air masses influenced by tropical biomass burning. In order to retrieve a clear source signal that is not influenced by the soil uptake of H 2 , we exclude samples from the atmospheric boundary layer. This procedure is supported by data from a global chemistry transport model. The ΔH 2 / ΔCO emission ratio is significantly lower than some earlier estimates for the tropical rainforest. In addition, our results confirm the lower values of the previously conflicting estimates of the H 2 isotopic source signature from biomass burning. These values for the emission ratio and isotopic source signatures of H 2 from tropical biomass burning can be used in future bottom-up and top-down approaches aiming to constrain the strength of the biomass-burning source for H 2 . Hitherto, these two quantities relied only on combustion experiments or on statistical relations, since no direct signal had been obtained from in-situ observations.

Description: Cloud and boundary layer interactions over the Arctic sea ice in late summer Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9379-9399, 2013 Author(s): M. D. Shupe, P. O. G. Persson, I. M. Brooks, M. Tjernström, J. Sedlar, T. Mauritsen, S. Sjogren, and C. Leck Observations from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS), in the central Arctic sea-ice pack in late summer 2008, provide a detailed view of cloud–atmosphere–surface interactions and vertical mixing processes over the sea-ice environment. Measurements from a suite of ground-based remote sensors, near-surface meteorological and aerosol instruments, and profiles from radiosondes and a helicopter are combined to characterize a week-long period dominated by low-level, mixed-phase, stratocumulus clouds. Detailed case studies and statistical analyses are used to develop a conceptual model for the cloud and atmosphere structure and their interactions in this environment. Clouds were persistent during the period of study, having qualities that suggest they were sustained through a combination of advective influences and in-cloud processes, with little contribution from the surface. Radiative cooling near cloud top produced buoyancy-driven, turbulent eddies that contributed to cloud formation and created a cloud-driven mixed layer. The depth of this mixed layer was related to the amount of turbulence and condensed cloud water. Coupling of this cloud-driven mixed layer to the surface boundary layer was primarily determined by proximity. For 75% of the period of study, the primary stratocumulus cloud-driven mixed layer was decoupled from the surface and typically at a warmer potential temperature. Since the near-surface temperature was constrained by the ocean–ice mixture, warm temperatures aloft suggest that these air masses had not significantly interacted with the sea-ice surface. Instead, back-trajectory analyses suggest that these warm air masses advected into the central Arctic Basin from lower latitudes. Moisture and aerosol particles likely accompanied these air masses, providing necessary support for cloud formation. On the occasions when cloud–surface coupling did occur, back trajectories indicated that these air masses advected at low levels, while mixing processes kept the mixed layer in equilibrium with the near-surface environment. Rather than contributing buoyancy forcing for the mixed-layer dynamics, the surface instead simply appeared to respond to the mixed-layer processes aloft. Clouds in these cases often contained slightly higher condensed water amounts, potentially due to additional moisture sources from below.

Description: Multiannual changes of CO 2 emissions in China: indirect estimates derived from satellite measurements of tropospheric NO 2 columns Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9415-9438, 2013 Author(s): E. V. Berezin, I. B. Konovalov, P. Ciais, A. Richter, S. Tao, G. Janssens-Maenhout, M. Beekmann, and E.-D. Schulze Multiannual satellite measurements of tropospheric NO 2 columns are used for evaluation of CO 2 emission changes in China in the period from 1996 to 2008. Indirect top-down annual estimates of CO 2 emissions are derived from the satellite NO 2 column measurements by means of a simple inverse modeling procedure involving simulations performed with the CHIMERE mesoscale chemistry–transport model and the CO 2 -to-NO x emission ratios from the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) global anthropogenic emission inventory and Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS). Exponential trends in the normalized time series of annual emissions are evaluated separately for the periods from 1996 to 2001 and from 2001 to 2008. The results indicate that the both periods manifest strong positive trends in the CO 2 emissions, and that the trend in the second period was significantly larger than the trend in the first period. Specifically, the trends in the first and second periods are best estimated to be in the range from 3.7 to 8.3 and from 11.0 to 13.2% per year, respectively, taking into account statistical uncertainties and differences between the CO 2 -to-NO x emission ratios from the EDGAR and REAS inventories. Comparison of our indirect top-down estimates of the CO 2 emission changes with the corresponding bottom-up estimates provided by the EDGAR (version 4.2) and Global Carbon Project (GCP) glomal emission inventories reveals that while acceleration of the CO 2 emission growth in the considered period is a common feature of both kinds of estimates, nonlinearity in the CO 2 emission changes may be strongly exaggerated in the global emission inventories. Specifically, the atmospheric NO 2 observations do not confirm the existence of a sharp bend in the emission inventory data time series in the period from 2000 to 2002. A significant quantitative difference is revealed between the bottom-up and indirect top-down estimates of the CO 2 emission trend in the period from 1996 to 2001 (specifically, the trend was not positive according to the global emission inventories, but is strongly positive in our estimates). These results confirm the findings of earlier studies that indicated probable large uncertainties in the energy production and other activity data for China from international energy statistics used as the input information in the global emission inventories. For the period from 2001 to 2008, some quantitative differences between the different kinds of estimates are found to be in the range of possible systematic uncertainties associated with our estimation method. In general, satellite measurements of tropospheric NO 2 are shown to be a useful source of information on CO 2 sources collocated with sources of nitrogen oxides; the corresponding potential of these measurements should be exploited further in future studies.

Description: Air quality over Europe: modelling gaseous and particulate pollutants Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9661-9673, 2013 Author(s): E. Tagaris, R. E. P. Sotiropoulou, N. Gounaris, S. Andronopoulos, and D. Vlachogiannis Air quality over Europe using Models-3 (i.e., CMAQ, MM5, SMOKE) modelling system is performed for winter (i.e., January 2006) and summer (i.e., July 2006) months with the 2006 TNO gridded anthropogenic emissions database. Higher ozone mixing ratios are predicted in southern Europe while higher NO 2 levels are simulated over western Europe. Elevated SO 2 values are simulated over eastern Europe and higher PM 2.5 concentrations over eastern and western Europe. Regional average results suggest that NO 2 and PM 2.5 are underpredicted, SO 2 is overpredicted, while Max8hrO 3 is overpredicted for low mixing ratios and is underpredicted for the higher mixing ratios. However, in a number of countries observed and predicted values are in good agreement for the pollutants examined here. Speciated PM 2.5 components suggest that NO 3 is dominant during winter over western Europe and in a few eastern countries due to the high NO 2 mixing ratios. During summer NO 3 is dominant only in regions with elevated NH 3 emissions. For the rest of the domain SO 4 is dominant. Low OC concentrations are simulated mainly due to the uncertain representation of SOA formation.

Description: On the uses of a new linear scheme for stratospheric methane in global models: water source, transport tracer and radiative forcing Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9641-9660, 2013 Author(s): B. M. Monge-Sanz, M. P. Chipperfield, A. Untch, J.-J. Morcrette, A. Rap, and A. J. Simmons This study evaluates effects and applications of a new linear parameterisation for stratospheric methane and water vapour. The new scheme (CoMeCAT) is derived from a 3-D full-chemistry-transport model (CTM). It is suitable for any global model, and is shown here to produce realistic profiles in the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT 3-D CTM and the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) general circulation model (GCM). Results from the new scheme are in good agreement with the full-chemistry CTM CH 4 field and with observations from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE). The scheme is also used to derive stratospheric water increments, which in the CTM produce vertical and latitudinal H 2 O variations in fair agreement with satellite observations. Stratospheric H 2 O distributions in the ECMWF GCM show realistic overall features, although concentrations are smaller than in the CTM run (up to 0.5 ppmv smaller above 10 hPa). The potential of the new CoMeCAT tracer for evaluating stratospheric transport is exploited to assess the impacts of nudging the free-running GCM to ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. The nudged GCM shows similar transport patterns to the offline CTM forced by the corresponding reanalysis data. The new scheme also impacts radiation and temperature in the model. Compared to the default CH 4 climatology and H 2 O used by the ECMWF radiation scheme, the main effect on ECMWF temperatures when considering both CH 4 and H 2 O from CoMeCAT is a decrease of up to 1.0 K over the tropical mid/low stratosphere. The effect of using the CoMeCAT scheme for radiative forcing (RF) calculations is investigated using the offline Edwards–Slingo radiative transfer model. Compared to the default model option of a tropospheric global 3-D CH 4 value, the CoMeCAT distribution produces an overall change in the annual mean net RF of up to −30 mW m −2 .

Description: A global historical ozone data set and prominent features of stratospheric variability prior to 1979 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9623-9639, 2013 Author(s): S. Brönnimann, J. Bhend, J. Franke, S. Flückiger, A. M. Fischer, R. Bleisch, G. Bodeker, B. Hassler, E. Rozanov, and M. Schraner We present a vertically resolved zonal mean monthly mean global ozone data set spanning the period 1901 to 2007, called HISTOZ.1.0. It is based on a new approach that combines information from an ensemble of chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations with historical total column ozone information. The CCM simulations incorporate important external drivers of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics (in particular solar and volcanic effects, greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, sea surface temperatures, and the quasi-biennial oscillation). The historical total column ozone observations include ground-based measurements from the 1920s onward and satellite observations from 1970 to 1976. An off-line data assimilation approach is used to combine model simulations, observations, and information on the observation error. The period starting in 1979 was used for validation with existing ozone data sets and therefore only ground-based measurements were assimilated. Results demonstrate considerable skill from the CCM simulations alone. Assimilating observations provides additional skill for total column ozone. With respect to the vertical ozone distribution, assimilating observations increases on average the correlation with a reference data set, but does not decrease the mean squared error. Analyses of HISTOZ.1.0 with respect to the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the 11 yr solar cycle on stratospheric ozone from 1934 to 1979 qualitatively confirm previous studies that focussed on the post-1979 period. The ENSO signature exhibits a much clearer imprint of a change in strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation compared to the post-1979 period. The imprint of the 11 yr solar cycle is slightly weaker in the earlier period. Furthermore, the total column ozone increase from the 1950s to around 1970 at northern mid-latitudes is briefly discussed. Indications for contributions of a tropospheric ozone increase, greenhouse gases, and changes in atmospheric circulation are found. Finally, the paper points at several possible future improvements of HISTOZ.1.0.

Description: An original interpretation of the wet edge of the surface temperature–albedo space to estimate crop evapotranspiration (SEB-1S), and its validation over an irrigated area in northwestern Mexico Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3623-3637, 2013 Author(s): O. Merlin The space defined by the pair surface temperature ( T ) and surface albedo (α), and the space defined by the pair T and fractional green vegetation cover ( f vg ) have been extensively used to estimate evaporative fraction (EF) from solar/thermal remote sensing data. In both space-based approaches, evapotranspiration (ET) is estimated as remotely sensed EF times the available energy. For a given data point in the T -α space or in the T - f vg space, EF is derived as the ratio of the distance separating the point from the line identified as the dry edge to the distance separating the dry edge and the line identified as the wet edge. The dry and wet edges are classically defined as the upper and lower limit of the spaces, respectively. When investigating side by side the T -α and the T - f vg spaces, one observes that the range covered by T values on the (classically determined) wet edge is different for both spaces. In addition, when extending the wet and dry lines of the T -α space, both lines cross at α ≈ 0.4 although the wet and dry edges of the T - f vg space never cross for 0 ≤ f vg 〈 1. In this paper, a new ET (EF) model (SEB-1S) is derived by revisiting the classical physical interpretation of the T -α space to make its wet edge consistent with that of the T - f vg space. SEB-1S is tested over a 16 km by 10 km irrigated area in northwestern Mexico during the 2007–2008 agricultural season. The classical T -α space-based model is implemented as benchmark to evaluate the performance of SEB-1S. Input data are composed of ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer) thermal infrared, Formosat-2 shortwave, and station-based meteorological data. The fluxes simulated by SEB-1S and the classical T -α space-based model are compared on seven ASTER overpass dates with the in situ measurements collected at six locations within the study domain. The ET simulated by SEB-1S is significantly more accurate and robust than that predicted by the classical T -α space-based model. The correlation coefficient and slope of the linear regression between simulated and observed ET is improved from 0.82 to 0.93, and from 0.63 to 0.90, respectively. Moreover, constraining the wet edge using air temperature data improves the slope of the linear regression between simulated and observed ET.

Description: On an improved sub-regional water resources management representation for integration into earth system models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3605-3622, 2013 Author(s): N. Voisin, H. Li, D. Ward, M. Huang, M. Wigmosta, and L. R. Leung Human influence on the hydrologic cycle includes regulation and storage, consumptive use and overall redistribution of water resources in space and time. Representing these processes is essential for applications of earth system models in hydrologic and climate predictions, as well as impact studies at regional to global scales. Emerging large-scale research reservoir models use generic operating rules that are flexible for coupling with earth system models. Those generic operating rules have been successful in reproducing the overall regulated flow at large basin scales. This study investigates the uncertainties of the reservoir models from different implementations of the generic operating rules using the complex multi-objective Columbia River Regulation System in northwestern United States as an example to understand their effects on not only regulated flow but also reservoir storage and fraction of the demand that is met. Numerical experiments are designed to test new generic operating rules that combine storage and releases targets for multi-purpose reservoirs and to compare the use of reservoir usage priorities and predictors (withdrawals vs. consumptive demands, as well as natural vs. regulated mean flow) for configuring operating rules. Overall the best performing implementation is with combined priorities rules (flood control storage targets and irrigation release targets) set up with mean annual natural flow and mean monthly withdrawals. The options of not accounting for groundwater withdrawals, or on the contrary, of assuming that all remaining demand is met through groundwater extractions, are discussed.

Description: On selection of the optimal data time interval for real-time hydrological forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3639-3659, 2013 Author(s): J. Liu and D. Han With the advancement in modern telemetry and communication technologies, hydrological data can be collected with an increasingly higher sampling rate. An important issue deserving attention from the hydrological community is which suitable time interval of the model input data should be chosen in hydrological forecasting. Such a problem has long been recognised in the control engineering community but is a largely ignored topic in operational applications of hydrological forecasting. In this study, the intrinsic properties of rainfall–runoff data with different time intervals are first investigated from the perspectives of the sampling theorem and the information loss using the discrete wavelet transform tool. It is found that rainfall signals with very high sampling rates may not always improve the accuracy of rainfall–runoff modelling due to the catchment low-pass-filtering effect. To further investigate the impact of a data time interval in real-time forecasting, a real-time forecasting system is constructed by incorporating the probability distributed model (PDM) with a real-time updating scheme, the autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) model. Case studies are then carried out on four UK catchments with different concentration times for real-time flow forecasting using data with different time intervals of 15, 30, 45, 60, 90 and 120 min. A positive relation is found between the forecast lead time and the optimal choice of the data time interval, which is also highly dependent on the catchment concentration time. Finally, based on the conclusions from the case studies, a hypothetical pattern is proposed in three-dimensional coordinates to describe the general impact of the data time interval and to provide implications of the selection of the optimal time interval in real-time hydrological forecasting. Although nowadays most operational hydrological systems still have low data sampling rates (daily or hourly), the future is that higher sampling rates will become more widespread, and there is an urgent need for hydrologists both in academia and in the field to realise the significance of the data time interval issue. It is important that more case studies in different catchments with various hydrological forecasting systems are explored in the future to further verify and improve the proposed hypothetical pattern.

Description: Benchmark products for land evapotranspiration: LandFlux-EVAL multi-data set synthesis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3707-3720, 2013 Author(s): B. Mueller, M. Hirschi, C. Jimenez, P. Ciais, P. A. Dirmeyer, A. J. Dolman, J. B. Fisher, M. Jung, F. Ludwig, F. Maignan, D. G. Miralles, M. F. McCabe, M. Reichstein, J. Sheffield, K. Wang, E. F. Wood, Y. Zhang, and S. I. Seneviratne Land evapotranspiration (ET) estimates are available from several global data sets. Here, monthly global land ET synthesis products, merged from these individual data sets over the time periods 1989–1995 (7 yr) and 1989–2005 (17 yr), are presented. The merged synthesis products over the shorter period are based on a total of 40 distinct data sets while those over the longer period are based on a total of 14 data sets. In the individual data sets, ET is derived from satellite and/or in situ observations (diagnostic data sets) or calculated via land-surface models (LSMs) driven with observations-based forcing or output from atmospheric reanalyses. Statistics for four merged synthesis products are provided, one including all data sets and three including only data sets from one category each (diagnostic, LSMs, and reanalyses). The multi-annual variations of ET in the merged synthesis products display realistic responses. They are also consistent with previous findings of a global increase in ET between 1989 and 1997 (0.13 mm yr −2 in our merged product) followed by a significant decrease in this trend (−0.18 mm yr −2 ), although these trends are relatively small compared to the uncertainty of absolute ET values. The global mean ET from the merged synthesis products (based on all data sets) is 493 mm yr −1 (1.35 mm d −1 ) for both the 1989–1995 and 1989–2005 products, which is relatively low compared to previously published estimates. We estimate global runoff (precipitation minus ET) to 263 mm yr −1 (34 406 km 3 yr −1 ) for a total land area of 130 922 000 km 2 . Precipitation, being an important driving factor and input to most simulated ET data sets, presents uncertainties between single data sets as large as those in the ET estimates. In order to reduce uncertainties in current ET products, improving the accuracy of the input variables, especially precipitation, as well as the parameterizations of ET, are crucial.

Description: Spatial patterns in timing of the diurnal temperature cycle Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3695-3706, 2013 Author(s): T. R. H. Holmes, W. T. Crow, and C. Hain This paper investigates the structural difference in timing of the diurnal temperature cycle (DTC) over land resulting from choice of measuring device or model framework. It is shown that the timing can be reliably estimated from temporally sparse observations acquired from a constellation of low Earth-orbiting satellites given record lengths of at least three months. Based on a year of data, the spatial patterns of mean DTC timing are compared between temperature estimates from microwave Ka-band, geostationary thermal infrared (TIR), and numerical weather prediction model output from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). It is found that the spatial patterns can be explained by vegetation effects, sensing depth differences and more speculatively the orientation of orographic relief features. In absolute terms, the GMAO model puts the peak of the DTC on average at 12:50 local solar time, 23 min before TIR with a peak temperature at 13:13 (both averaged over Africa and Europe). Since TIR is the shallowest observation of the land surface, this small difference represents a structural error that possibly affects the model's ability to assimilate observations that are closely tied to the DTC. The equivalent average timing for Ka-band is 13:44, which is influenced by the effect of increased sensing depth in desert areas. For non-desert areas, the Ka-band observations lag the TIR observations by only 15 min, which is in agreement with their respective theoretical sensing depth. The results of this comparison provide insights into the structural differences between temperature measurements and models, and can be used as a first step to account for these differences in a coherent way.

Description: Naphthalene SOA: redox activity and naphthoquinone gas–particle partitioning Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9731-9744, 2013 Author(s): R. D. McWhinney, S. Zhou, and J. P. D. Abbatt Chamber secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from low-NO x photooxidation of naphthalene by hydroxyl radical was examined with respect to its redox cycling behaviour using the dithiothreitol (DTT) assay. Naphthalene SOA was highly redox-active, consuming DTT at an average rate of 118 ± 14 pmol per minute per μg of SOA material. Measured particle-phase masses of the major previously identified redox active products, 1,2- and 1,4-naphthoquinone, accounted for only 21 ± 3% of the observed redox cycling activity. The redox-active 5-hydroxy-1,4-naphthoquinone was identified as a new minor product of naphthalene oxidation, and including this species in redox activity predictions increased the predicted DTT reactivity to 30 ± 5% of observations. These results suggest that there are substantial unidentified redox-active SOA constituents beyond the small quinones that may be important toxic components of these particles. A gas-to-SOA particle partitioning coefficient was calculated to be (7.0 ± 2.5) × 10 −4 m 3 μg −1 for 1,4-naphthoquinone at 25 °C. This value suggests that under typical warm conditions, 1,4-naphthoquinone is unlikely to contribute strongly to redox behaviour of ambient particles, although further work is needed to determine the potential impact under conditions such as low temperatures where partitioning to the particle is more favourable. Also, higher order oxidation products that likely account for a substantial fraction of the redox cycling capability of the naphthalene SOA are likely to partition much more strongly to the particle phase.

Description: Satellite observation of lowermost tropospheric ozone by multispectral synergism of IASI thermal infrared and GOME-2 ultraviolet measurements over Europe Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9675-9693, 2013 Author(s): J. Cuesta, M. Eremenko, X. Liu, G. Dufour, Z. Cai, M. Höpfner, T. von Clarmann, P. Sellitto, G. Foret, B. Gaubert, M. Beekmann, J. Orphal, K. Chance, R. Spurr, and J.-M. Flaud We present a new multispectral approach for observing lowermost tropospheric ozone from space by synergism of atmospheric radiances in the thermal infrared (TIR) observed by IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) and earth reflectances in the ultraviolet (UV) measured by GOME-2 (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2). Both instruments are onboard the series of MetOp satellites (in orbit since 2006 and expected until 2022) and their scanning capabilities offer global coverage every day, with a relatively fine ground pixel resolution (12 km-diameter pixels spaced by 25 km for IASI at nadir). Our technique uses altitude-dependent Tikhonov–Phillips-type constraints, which optimize sensitivity to lower tropospheric ozone. It integrates the VLIDORT (Vector Linearized Discrete Ordinate Radiative Transfer) and KOPRA (Karlsruhe Optimized and Precise Radiative transfer Algorithm) radiative transfer codes for simulating UV reflectance and TIR radiance, respectively. We have used our method to analyse real observations over Europe during an ozone pollution episode in the summer of 2009. The results show that the multispectral synergism of IASI (TIR) and GOME-2 (UV) enables the observation of the spatial distribution of ozone plumes in the lowermost troposphere (LMT, from the surface up to 3 km a.s.l., above sea level), in good agreement with the CHIMERE regional chemistry-transport model. In this case study, when high ozone concentrations extend vertically above 3 km a.s.l., they are similarly observed over land by both the multispectral and IASI retrievals. On the other hand, ozone plumes located below 3 km a.s.l. are only clearly depicted by the multispectral retrieval (both over land and over ocean). This is achieved by a clear enhancement of sensitivity to ozone in the lowest atmospheric layers. The multispectral sensitivity in the LMT peaks at 2 to 2.5 km a.s.l. over land, while sensitivity for IASI or GOME-2 only peaks at 3 to 4 km a.s.l. at lowest (above the LMT). The degrees of freedom for the multispectral retrieval increase by 0.1 (40% in relative terms) with respect to IASI only retrievals for the LMT. Validations with ozonesondes (over Europe during summer 2009) show that our synergetic approach for combining IASI (TIR) and GOME-2 (UV) measurements retrieves lowermost tropospheric ozone with a mean bias of 1% and a precision of 16%, when smoothing by the retrieval vertical sensitivity (1% mean bias and 21% precision for direct comparisons).

Description: Integrated hydrological modeling of the North China Plain and implications for sustainable water management Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3759-3778, 2013 Author(s): H. Qin, G. Cao, M. Kristensen, J. C. Refsgaard, M. O. Rasmussen, X. He, J. Liu, Y. Shu, and C. Zheng Groundwater overdraft has caused fast water level decline in the North China Plain (NCP) since the 1980s. Although many hydrological models have been developed for the NCP in the past few decades, most of them deal only with the groundwater component or only at local scales. In the present study, a coupled surface water–groundwater model using the MIKE SHE code has been developed for the entire alluvial plain of the NCP. All the major processes in the land phase of the hydrological cycle are considered in the integrated modeling approach. The most important parameters of the model are first identified by a sensitivity analysis process and then calibrated for the period 2000–2005. The calibrated model is validated for the period 2006–2008 against daily observations of groundwater heads. The simulation results compare well with the observations where acceptable values of root mean square error (RMSE) (most values lie below 4 m) and correlation coefficient ( R ) (0.36–0.97) are obtained. The simulated evapotranspiration (ET) is then compared with the remote sensing (RS)-based ET data to further validate the model simulation. The comparison result with a R 2 value of 0.93 between the monthly averaged values of simulated actual evapotranspiration (AET) and RS AET for the entire NCP shows a good performance of the model. The water balance results indicate that more than 70% of water leaving the flow system is attributed to the ET component, of which about 0.25% is taken from the saturated zone (SZ); about 29% comes from pumping, including irrigation pumping and non-irrigation pumping (net pumping). Sustainable water management analysis of the NCP is conducted using the simulation results obtained from the integrated model. An effective approach to improve water use efficiency in the NCP is by reducing the actual ET, e.g. by introducing water-saving technologies and changes in cropping.

Description: Simulation of a persistent medium-term precipitation event over the western Iberian Peninsula Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3741-3758, 2013 Author(s): S. C. Pereira, A. C. Carvalho, J. Ferreira, J. P. Nunes, J. J. Keizer, and A. Rocha This study evaluated the performance of the WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting with Advanced Research) weather prediction model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed during the rainy season and, more specifically, the month of December 2009. In this period, the region of interest was under the influence of a sequential passage of low-pressure systems associated with frontal surfaces. These synoptic weather patterns were responsible for long periods of rainfall, resulting in a high monthly precipitation. The WRF model results during the study period were furthermore evaluated with the specific objective to complement gaps in the precipitation recordings of a reference meteorological station (located in Pousadas), the data of which are fundamental for hydrological studies in nearby experimental catchments. Three distinct WRF model runs were forced with initial fields and boundary conditions obtained from a global domain model: (1) a reference experiment with no nudging (RunRef); (2) observational nudging for a specific location, i.e. the above-mentioned Pousadas reference station (RunObsN); and (3) nudging to the analysed field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated, using several statistical parameters, against a dataset of 27 rainfall stations that were grouped by elevation. The three model runs had similar performances, even though RunGridN resulted in a slight improvement. Regarding the other two experiments, this improvement justifies its use for complementing the surface measurements at the Pousadas reference station. Overall model accuracy, expressed in root mean square error (RMSE), of the three runs was comparable for the stations of the different elevations classes. Even so, it was slightly better for stations in the lowlands than the highlands. Furthermore, model predictions tended to be less accurate for stations located in rough terrain and deep valleys.

Description: Investigating the spatio-temporal variability in groundwater and surface water interactions: a multi-technique approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3437-3453, 2013 Author(s): N. P. Unland, I. Cartwright, M. S. Andersen, G. C. Rau, J. Reed, B. S. Gilfedder, A. P. Atkinson, and H. Hofmann The interaction between groundwater and surface water along the Tambo and Nicholson rivers, southeast Australia, was investigated using 222 Rn, Cl, differential flow gauging, head gradients, electrical conductivity (EC) and temperature profiles. Head gradients, temperature profiles, Cl concentrations and 222 Rn activities all indicate higher groundwater fluxes to the Tambo River in areas of increased topographic variation where the potential to form large groundwater–surface water gradients is greater. Groundwater discharge to the Tambo River calculated by Cl mass balance was significantly lower (1.48 × 10 4 to 1.41 × 10 3 m 3 day −1 ) than discharge estimated by 222 Rn mass balance (5.35 × 10 5 to 9.56 × 10 3 m 3 day −1 ) and differential flow gauging (5.41 × 10 5 to 6.30 × 10 3 m 3 day −1 ) due to bank return waters. While groundwater sampling from the bank of the Tambo River was intended to account for changes in groundwater chemistry associated with bank infiltration, variations in bank infiltration between sample sites remain unaccounted for, limiting the use of Cl as an effective tracer. Groundwater discharge to both the Tambo and Nicholson rivers was the highest under high-flow conditions in the days to weeks following significant rainfall, indicating that the rivers are well connected to a groundwater system that is responsive to rainfall. Groundwater constituted the lowest proportion of river discharge during times of increased rainfall that followed dry periods, while groundwater constituted the highest proportion of river discharge under baseflow conditions (21.4% of the Tambo in April 2010 and 18.9% of the Nicholson in September 2010).

Description: Resolving structural errors in a spatially distributed hydrologic model using ensemble Kalman filter state updates Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3455-3472, 2013 Author(s): J. H. Spaaks and W. Bouten In hydrological modeling, model structures are developed in an iterative cycle as more and different types of measurements become available and our understanding of the hillslope or watershed improves. However, with increasing complexity of the model, it becomes more and more difficult to detect which parts of the model are deficient, or which processes should also be incorporated into the model during the next development step. In this study, we first compare two methods (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (SCEM-UA) and the Simultaneous parameter Optimization and Data Assimilation algorithm (SODA)) to calibrate a purposely deficient 3-D hillslope-scale model to error-free, artificially generated measurements. We use a multi-objective approach based on distributed pressure head at the soil–bedrock interface and hillslope-scale discharge and water balance. For these idealized circumstances, SODA's usefulness as a diagnostic methodology is demonstrated by its ability to identify the timing and location of processes that are missing in the model. We show that SODA's state updates provide information that could readily be incorporated into an improved model structure, and that this type of information cannot be gained from parameter estimation methods such as SCEM-UA. We then expand on the SODA result by performing yet another calibration, in which we investigate whether SODA's state updating patterns are still capable of providing insight into model structure deficiencies when there are fewer measurements, which are moreover subject to measurement noise. We conclude that SODA can help guide the discussion between experimentalists and modelers by providing accurate and detailed information on how to improve spatially distributed hydrologic models.

Description: Tethered balloon-borne aerosol measurements: seasonal and vertical variations of aerosol constituents over Syowa Station, Antarctica Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9119-9139, 2013 Author(s): K. Hara, K. Osada, and T. Yamanouchi Tethered balloon-borne aerosol measurements were conducted at Syowa Station, Antarctica, during the 46th Japanese Antarctic expedition (2005–2006). Direct aerosol sampling was operated from near the surface to the lower free troposphere (approximately 2500 m) using a balloon-borne aerosol impactor. Individual aerosol particles were analyzed using a scanning electron microscope equipped with an energy dispersive X-ray spectrometer. Seasonal and vertical features of aerosol constituents and their mixing states were investigated. Results show that sulfate particles were predominant in the boundary layer and lower free troposphere in summer, whereas sea-salt particles were predominant during winter through spring. Minerals, MgSO 4 , and sulfate containing K were identified as minor aerosol constituents in both boundary layer and free troposphere over Syowa Station. Although sea-salt particles were predominant during winter through spring, the relative abundance of sulfate particles increased in the boundary layer when air masses fell from the free troposphere over the Antarctic coast and continent. Sea-salt particles were modified considerably through heterogeneous reactions with SO 4 2− CH 3 SO 3 − and their precursors during summer, and were modified slightly through heterogeneous reactions with NO 3 − and its precursors. During winter through spring, sea-salt modification was insignificant, particularly in the cases of high relative abundance of sea-salt particles and higher number concentrations. In August, NO 3 − and its precursors contributed greatly to sea-salt modification over Syowa Station. Because of the occurrence of sea-salt fractionation on sea ice, Mg-rich sea-salt particles were identified during the months of April through November. In contrast, Mg-free sea-salt particles and slightly Mg-rich sea-salt particles coexisted in the lower troposphere during summer. Thereby, Mg separation can proceed by sea-salt fractionation during summer in Antarctic regions.

Description: Regional inversion of CO 2 ecosystem fluxes from atmospheric measurements: reliability of the uncertainty estimates Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9039-9056, 2013 Author(s): G. Broquet, F. Chevallier, F.-M. Bréon, N. Kadygrov, M. Alemanno, F. Apadula, S. Hammer, L. Haszpra, F. Meinhardt, J. A. Morguí, J. Necki, S. Piacentino, M. Ramonet, M. Schmidt, R. L. Thompson, A. T. Vermeulen, C. Yver, and P. Ciais The Bayesian framework of CO 2 flux inversions permits estimates of the retrieved flux uncertainties. Here, the reliability of these theoretical estimates is studied through a comparison against the misfits between the inverted fluxes and independent measurements of the CO 2 Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) made by the eddy covariance technique at local (few hectares) scale. Regional inversions at 0.5° resolution are applied for the western European domain where ~ 50 eddy covariance sites are operated. These inversions are conducted for the period 2002–2007. They use a mesoscale atmospheric transport model, a prior estimate of the NEE from a terrestrial ecosystem model and rely on the variational assimilation of in situ continuous measurements of CO 2 atmospheric mole fractions. Averaged over monthly periods and over the whole domain, the misfits are in good agreement with the theoretical uncertainties for prior and inverted NEE, and pass the chi-square test for the variance at the 30% and 5% significance levels respectively, despite the scale mismatch and the independence between the prior (respectively inverted) NEE and the flux measurements. The theoretical uncertainty reduction for the monthly NEE at the measurement sites is 53% while the inversion decreases the standard deviation of the misfits by 38%. These results build confidence in the NEE estimates at the European/monthly scales and in their theoretical uncertainty from the regional inverse modelling system. However, the uncertainties at the monthly (respectively annual) scale remain larger than the amplitude of the inter-annual variability of monthly (respectively annual) fluxes, so that this study does not engender confidence in the inter-annual variations. The uncertainties at the monthly scale are significantly smaller than the seasonal variations. The seasonal cycle of the inverted fluxes is thus reliable. In particular, the CO 2 sink period over the European continent likely ends later than represented by the prior ecosystem model.

Description: Key chemical NO x sink uncertainties and how they influence top-down emissions of nitrogen oxides Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9057-9082, 2013 Author(s): T. Stavrakou, J.-F. Müller, K. F. Boersma, R. J. van der A, J. Kurokawa, T. Ohara, and Q. Zhang Triggered by recent developments from laboratory and field studies regarding major NO x sink pathways in the troposphere, this study evaluates the influence of chemical uncertainties in NO x sinks for global NO x distributions calculated by the IMAGESv2 chemistry-transport model, and quantifies their significance for top-down NO x emission estimates. Our study focuses on five key chemical parameters believed to be of primary importance, more specifically, the rate of the reaction of NO 2 with OH radicals, the newly identified HNO 3 -forming channel in the reaction of NO with HO 2 , the reactive uptake of N 2 O 5 and HO 2 by aerosols, and the regeneration of OH in the oxidation of isoprene. Sensitivity simulations are performed to estimate the impact of each source of uncertainty. The model calculations show that, although the NO 2 +OH reaction is the largest NO x sink globally accounting for ca. 60% of the total sink, the reactions contributing the most to the overall uncertainty are the formation of HNO 3 in NO+HO 2 , leading to NO x column changes exceeding a factor of two over tropical regions, and the uptake of HO 2 by aqueous aerosols, in particular over East and South Asia. Emission inversion experiments are carried out using model settings which either minimise (MINLOSS) or maximise (MAXLOSS) the total NO x sink, both constrained by one year of OMI NO 2 column data from the DOMINO v2 KNMI algorithm. The choice of the model setup is found to have a major impact on the top-down flux estimates, with 75% higher emissions for MAXLOSS compared to the MINLOSS inversion globally. Even larger departures are found for soil NO (factor of 2) and lightning (1.8). The global anthropogenic source is better constrained (factor of 1.57) than the natural sources, except over South Asia where the combined uncertainty primarily associated to the NO+HO 2 reaction in summer and HO 2 uptake by aerosol in winter lead to top-down emission differences exceeding a factor of 2. Evaluation of the emission optimisation is performed against independent satellite observations from the SCIAMACHY sensor, with airborne NO 2 measurements of the INTEX-A and INTEX-B campaigns, as well as with two new bottom-up inventories of anthropogenic emissions in Asia (REASv2) and China (MEIC). Neither the MINLOSS nor the MAXLOSS setup succeeds in providing the best possible match with all independent datasets. Whereas the minimum sink assumption leads to better agreement with aircraft NO 2 profile measurements, consistent with the results of a previous analysis (Henderson et al., 2012), the same assumption leads to unrealistic features in the inferred distribution of emissions over China. Clearly, although our study addresses an important issue which was largely overlooked in previous inversion exercises, and demonstrates the strong influence of NO x loss uncertainties on top-down emission fluxes, additional processes need to be considered which could also influence the inferred source.

Description: Airborne hydrogen cyanide measurements using a chemical ionisation mass spectrometer for the plume identification of biomass burning forest fires Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9217-9232, 2013 Author(s): M. Le Breton, A. Bacak, J. B. A. Muller, S. J. O'Shea, P. Xiao, M. N. R. Ashfold, M. C. Cooke, R. Batt, D. E. Shallcross, D. E. Oram, G. Forster, S. J.-B. Bauguitte, and C. J. Percival A chemical ionisation mass spectrometer (CIMS) was developed for measuring hydrogen cyanide (HCN) from biomass burning events in Canada using I − reagent ions on board the FAAM BAe-146 research aircraft during the BORTAS campaign in 2011. The ionisation scheme enabled highly sensitive measurements at 1 Hz frequency through biomass burning plumes in the troposphere. A strong correlation between the HCN, carbon monoxide (CO) and acetonitrile (CH 3 CN) was observed, indicating the potential of HCN as a biomass burning (BB) marker. A plume was defined as being 6 standard deviations above background for the flights. This method was compared with a number of alternative plume-defining techniques employing CO and CH 3 CN measurements. The 6-sigma technique produced the highest R 2 values for correlations with CO. A normalised excess mixing ratio (NEMR) of 3.68 ± 0.149 pptv ppbv −1 was calculated, which is within the range quoted in previous research (Hornbrook et al., 2011). The global tropospheric model STOCHEM-CRI incorporated both the observed ratio and extreme ratios derived from other studies to generate global emission totals of HCN via biomass burning. Using the ratio derived from this work, the emission total for HCN from BB was 0.92 Tg (N) yr −1 .

Description: Modeling of very low frequency (VLF) radio wave signal profile due to solar flares using the GEANT4 Monte Carlo simulation coupled with ionospheric chemistry Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9159-9168, 2013 Author(s): S. Palit, T. Basak, S. K. Mondal, S. Pal, and S. K. Chakrabarti X-ray photons emitted during solar flares cause ionization in the lower ionosphere (~60 to 100 km) in excess of what is expected to occur due to a quiet sun. Very low frequency (VLF) radio wave signals reflected from the D-region of the ionosphere are affected by this excess ionization. In this paper, we reproduce the deviation in VLF signal strength during solar flares by numerical modeling. We use GEANT4 Monte Carlo simulation code to compute the rate of ionization due to a M-class flare and a X-class flare. The output of the simulation is then used in a simplified ionospheric chemistry model to calculate the time variation of electron density at different altitudes in the D-region of the ionosphere. The resulting electron density variation profile is then self-consistently used in the LWPC code to obtain the time variation of the change in VLF signal. We did the modeling of the VLF signal along the NWC (Australia) to IERC/ICSP (India) propagation path and compared the results with observations. The agreement is found to be very satisfactory.

Description: Absorption properties of Mediterranean aerosols obtained from multi-year ground-based remote sensing observations Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9195-9210, 2013 Author(s): M. Mallet, O. Dubovik, P. Nabat, F. Dulac, R. Kahn, J. Sciare, D. Paronis, and J. F. Léon Aerosol absorption properties are of high importance to assess aerosol impact on regional climate. This study presents an analysis of aerosol absorption products obtained over the Mediterranean basin or land stations in the region from multi-year ground-based AERONET observations with a focus on the Absorbing Aerosol Optical Depth (AAOD), Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) and their spectral dependence. The AAOD and Absorption Angström Exponent (AAE) dataset is composed of daily averaged AERONET level 2 data from a total of 22 Mediterranean stations having long time series, mainly under the influence of urban-industrial aerosols and/or soil dust. This dataset covers the 17-yr period 1996–2012 with most data being from 2003–2011 (~89% of level-2 AAOD data). Since AERONET level-2 absorption products require a high aerosol load (AOD at 440 nm 〉 0.4), which is most often related to the presence of desert dust, we also consider level-1.5 SSA data, despite their higher uncertainty, and filter out data with an Angström exponent 〈 1.0 in order to study absorption by carbonaceous aerosols. The SSA dataset includes AERONET level-2 products. Sun-photometer observations show that values of AAOD at 440 nm vary between 0.024 ± 0.01 (resp. 0.040 ± 0.01) and 0.050 ± 0.01 (0.055 ± 0.01) for urban (dusty) sites. Analysis shows that the Mediterranean urban-industrial aerosols appear "moderately" absorbing with values of SSA close to ~0.94–0.95 ± 0.04 (at 440 nm) in most cases except over the large cities of Rome and Athens, where aerosol appears more absorbing (SSA ~0.89–0.90 ± 0.04). The aerosol Absorption Angström Exponent (AAE, estimated using 440 and 870 nm) is found to be larger than 1 for most sites over the Mediterranean, a manifestation of mineral dust (iron) and/or brown carbon producing the observed absorption. AERONET level-2 sun-photometer data indicate a possible East-West gradient, with higher values over the eastern basin (AAE East = 1.39/AAE West = 1.33). The North-South AAE gradient is more pronounced, especially over the western basin. Our additional analysis of AERONET level-1.5 data also shows that organic absorbing aerosols significantly affect some Mediterranean sites. These results indicate that current climate models treating organics as nonabsorbing over the Mediterranean certainly underestimate the warming effect due to carbonaceous aerosols.

Description: Optical, microphysical, mass and geometrical properties of aged volcanic particles observed over Athens, Greece, during the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in April 2010 through synergy of Raman lidar and sunphotometer measurements Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9303-9320, 2013 Author(s): P. Kokkalis, A. Papayannis, V. Amiridis, R. E. Mamouri, I. Veselovskii, A. Kolgotin, G. Tsaknakis, N. I. Kristiansen, A. Stohl, and L. Mona Vertical profiles of the optical (extinction and backscatter coefficients, lidar ratio and Ångström exponent), microphysical (mean effective radius, mean refractive index, mean number concentration) and geometrical properties as well as the mass concentration of volcanic particles from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption were retrieved at selected heights over Athens, Greece, using multi-wavelength Raman lidar measurements performed during the period 21–24 April 2010. Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) particulate columnar measurements along with inversion schemes were initialized together with lidar observations to deliver the aforementioned products. The well-known FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model) model used for volcanic dispersion simulations is initiated as well in order to estimate the horizontal and vertical distribution of volcanic particles. Compared with the lidar measurements within the planetary boundary layer over Athens, FLEXPART proved to be a useful tool for determining the state of mixing of ash with other, locally emitted aerosol types. The major findings presented in our work concern the identification of volcanic particles layers in the form of filaments after 7-day transport from the volcanic source (approximately 4000 km away from our site) from the surface and up to 10 km according to the lidar measurements. Mean hourly averaged lidar signals indicated that the layer thickness of volcanic particles ranged between 1.5 and 2.2 km. The corresponding aerosol optical depth was found to vary from 0.01 to 0.18 at 355 nm and from 0.02 up to 0.17 at 532 nm. Furthermore, the corresponding lidar ratios ( S ) ranged between 60 and 80 sr at 355 nm and 44 and 88 sr at 532 nm. The mean effective radius of the volcanic particles estimated by applying inversion scheme to the lidar data found to vary within the range 0.13–0.38 μm and the refractive index ranged from 1.39+0.009 i to 1.48+0.006 i . This high variability is most probably attributed to the mixing of aged volcanic particles with other aerosol types of local origin. Finally, the LIRIC (LIdar/Radiometer Inversion Code) lidar/sunphotometric combined inversion algorithm has been applied in order to retrieve particle concentrations. These have been compared with FLEXPART simulations of the vertical distribution of ash showing good agreement concerning not only the geometrical properties of the volcanic particles layers but also the particles mass concentration.

Description: Corrigendum to "The magnitude and causes of uncertainty in global model simulations of cloud condensation nuclei" published in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 8879–8914, 2013 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9375-9377, 2013 Author(s): L. A. Lee, K. J. Pringle, C. L. Reddington, G. W. Mann, P. Stier, D. V. Spracklen, J. R. Pierce, and K. S. Carslaw No abstract available.

Description: Spatial and seasonal variations in evapotranspiration over Canada's landmass Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3561-3575, 2013 Author(s): S. Wang, Y. Yang, Y. Luo, and A. Rivera A 30 yr (1979–2008) dataset of actual evapotranspiration (ET) at 1 km resolution was generated over Canada's landmass by integrating remote sensing land surface data and gridded climate data using the EALCO model run at a 30 min time step. This long-term high-resolution dataset was used to characterize the spatiotemporal variations in ET across Canada. The results show that annual ET varied from 600 mm yr −1 over several regions in the south to less than 100 mm yr −1 in the northern Arctic. Nationally, ET in summer (i.e., June to August) comprised 65% of the annual total amount. ET in the cold season remained mostly below 10 mm month −1 over the country. Negative monthly ET was obtained over the Arctic region in winter, indicating EALCO simulated a larger amount of condensation than ET. Overall, the mean ET over the entire Canadian landmass for the 30 yr was 239 mm yr −1 , or 44% of its corresponding precipitation. Comparisons of available ET studies in Canada revealed large uncertainties in ET estimates associated with using different approaches. The scarcity of ET measurements for the diverse ecosystems in Canada remains a significant challenge for reducing the uncertainties; this gap needs to be addressed in future studies to improve capabilities in climate/weather modeling and water resource management.

Description: Introduction to special issue: the TransBrom Sonne expedition in the tropical West Pacific Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9439-9446, 2013 Author(s): K. Krüger and B. Quack This special section of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics gives an overview of scientific results, collected during a West Pacific ship expedition in October 2009 with the Research Vessel (R/V) Sonne . The cruise focussed on chemical interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere above the tropical West Pacific and was planned within the national research project TransBrom ( www.geomar.de/~transbrom ). TransBrom aimed to particularly investigate very short lived bromine compounds in the ocean and their transport to and relevance for the stratosphere. For this purpose, chemical and biological parameters were analysed in the ocean and in the atmosphere, accompanied by a high frequency of meteorological measurements, to derive new insights into the multidisciplinary research field. This introduction paper presents the scientific goals and the meteorological and oceanographic background. The main research findings of the TransBrom Sonne expedition are highlighted.

Description: Quantitative determination of carbonaceous particle mixing state in Paris using single-particle mass spectrometer and aerosol mass spectrometer measurements Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9479-9496, 2013 Author(s): R. M. Healy, J. Sciare, L. Poulain, M. Crippa, A. Wiedensohler, A. S. H. Prévôt, U. Baltensperger, R. Sarda-Estève, M. L. McGuire, C.-H. Jeong, E. McGillicuddy, I. P. O'Connor, J. R. Sodeau, G. J. Evans, and J. C. Wenger Single-particle mixing state information can be a powerful tool for assessing the relative impact of local and regional sources of ambient particulate matter in urban environments. However, quantitative mixing state data are challenging to obtain using single-particle mass spectrometers. In this study, the quantitative chemical composition of carbonaceous single particles has been determined using an aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometer (ATOFMS) as part of the MEGAPOLI 2010 winter campaign in Paris, France. Relative peak areas of marker ions for elemental carbon (EC), organic aerosol (OA), ammonium, nitrate, sulfate and potassium were compared with concurrent measurements from an Aerodyne high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS), a thermal–optical OCEC analyser and a particle into liquid sampler coupled with ion chromatography (PILS-IC). ATOFMS-derived estimated mass concentrations reproduced the variability of these species well ( R 2 = 0.67–0.78), and 10 discrete mixing states for carbonaceous particles were identified and quantified. The chemical mixing state of HR-ToF-AMS organic aerosol factors, resolved using positive matrix factorisation, was also investigated through comparison with the ATOFMS dataset. The results indicate that hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA) detected in Paris is associated with two EC-rich mixing states which differ in their relative sulfate content, while fresh biomass burning OA (BBOA) is associated with two mixing states which differ significantly in their OA / EC ratios. Aged biomass burning OA (OOA 2 -BBOA) was found to be significantly internally mixed with nitrate, while secondary, oxidised OA (OOA) was associated with five particle mixing states, each exhibiting different relative secondary inorganic ion content. Externally mixed secondary organic aerosol was not observed. These findings demonstrate the range of primary and secondary organic aerosol mixing states in Paris. Examination of the temporal behaviour and chemical composition of the ATOFMS classes also enabled estimation of the relative contribution of transported emissions of each chemical species and total particle mass in the size range investigated. Only 22% of the total ATOFMS-derived particle mass was apportioned to fresh, local emissions, with 78% apportioned to regional/continental-scale emissions.

Description: Post-processing rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models for short-term streamflow forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3587-3603, 2013 Author(s): D. E. Robertson, D. L. Shrestha, and Q. J. Wang Sub-daily ensemble rainfall forecasts that are bias free and reliably quantify forecast uncertainty are critical for flood and short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting. Post-processing of rainfall predictions from numerical weather prediction models is typically required to provide rainfall forecasts with these properties. In this paper, a new approach to generate ensemble rainfall forecasts by post-processing raw numerical weather prediction (NWP) rainfall predictions is introduced. The approach uses a simplified version of the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach to produce forecast probability distributions for individual locations and forecast lead times. Ensemble forecasts with appropriate spatial and temporal correlations are then generated by linking samples from the forecast probability distributions using the Schaake shuffle. The new approach is evaluated by applying it to post-process predictions from the ACCESS-R numerical weather prediction model at rain gauge locations in the Ovens catchment in southern Australia. The joint distribution of NWP predicted and observed rainfall is shown to be well described by the assumed log-sinh transformed bivariate normal distribution. Ensemble forecasts produced using the approach are shown to be more skilful than the raw NWP predictions both for individual forecast lead times and for cumulative totals throughout all forecast lead times. Skill increases result from the correction of not only the mean bias, but also biases conditional on the magnitude of the NWP rainfall prediction. The post-processed forecast ensembles are demonstrated to successfully discriminate between events and non-events for both small and large rainfall occurrences, and reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty. Future work will assess the efficacy of the post-processing method for a wider range of climatic conditions and also investigate the benefits of using post-processed rainfall forecasts for flood and short-term streamflow forecasting.

Description: Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3661-3677, 2013 Author(s): A. F. Lutz, W. W. Immerzeel, A. Gobiet, F. Pellicciotti, and M. F. P. Bierkens Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July–September) while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October–February). However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.

Description: Prediction of dissolved reactive phosphorus losses from small agricultural catchments: calibration and validation of a parsimonious model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3679-3693, 2013 Author(s): C. Hahn, V. Prasuhn, C. Stamm, P. Lazzarotto, M. W. H. Evangelou, and R. Schulin Eutrophication of surface waters due to diffuse phosphorus (P) losses continues to be a severe water quality problem worldwide, causing the loss of ecosystem functions of the respective water bodies. Phosphorus in runoff often originates from a small fraction of a catchment only. Targeting mitigation measures to these critical source areas (CSAs) is expected to be most efficient and cost-effective, but requires suitable tools. Here we investigated the capability of the parsimonious Rainfall-Runoff-Phosphorus (RRP) model to identify CSAs in grassland-dominated catchments based on readily available soil and topographic data. After simultaneous calibration on runoff data from four small hilly catchments on the Swiss Plateau, the model was validated on a different catchment in the same region without further calibration. The RRP model adequately simulated the discharge and dissolved reactive P (DRP) export from the validation catchment. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model predictions were robust with respect to the classification of soils into "poorly drained" and "well drained", based on the available soil map. Comparing spatial hydrological model predictions with field data from the validation catchment provided further evidence that the assumptions underlying the model are valid and that the model adequately accounts for the dominant P export processes in the target region. Thus, the parsimonious RRP model is a valuable tool that can be used to determine CSAs. Despite the considerable predictive uncertainty regarding the spatial extent of CSAs, the RRP can provide guidance for the implementation of mitigation measures. The model helps to identify those parts of a catchment where high DRP losses are expected or can be excluded with high confidence. Legacy P was predicted to be the dominant source for DRP losses and thus, in combination with hydrologic active areas, a high risk for water quality.

Description: Contact freezing: a review of experimental studies Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9745-9769, 2013 Author(s): L. A. Ladino Moreno, O. Stetzer, and U. Lohmann This manuscript compiles both theoretical and experimental information on contact freezing with the aim to better understand this potentially important but still not well quantified heterogeneous freezing mode. There is no complete theory that describes contact freezing and how the energy barrier has to be overcome to nucleate an ice crystal by contact freezing. Experiments on contact freezing conducted using the cold plate technique indicate that it can initiate ice formation at warmer temperatures than immersion freezing. Additionally, a qualitative difference in the freezing temperatures between contact and immersion freezing has been found using different instrumentation and different ice nuclei. There is a lack of data on collision rates in most of the reported data, which inhibits a quantitative calculation of the freezing efficiencies. Thus, new or modified instrumentation to study contact nucleation in the laboratory and in the field are needed to identify the conditions at which contact nucleation could occur in the atmosphere. Important questions concerning contact freezing and its potential role for ice cloud formation and climate are also summarized.

Description: Validation of XCO 2 derived from SWIR spectra of GOSAT TANSO-FTS with aircraft measurement data Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9771-9788, 2013 Author(s): M. Inoue, I. Morino, O. Uchino, Y. Miyamoto, Y. Yoshida, T. Yokota, T. Machida, Y. Sawa, H. Matsueda, C. Sweeney, P. P. Tans, A. E. Andrews, S. C. Biraud, T. Tanaka, S. Kawakami, and P. K. Patra Column-averaged dry air mole fractions of carbon dioxide (XCO 2 ) retrieved from Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) Short-Wavelength InfraRed (SWIR) observations were validated with aircraft measurements by the Comprehensive Observation Network for TRace gases by AIrLiner (CONTRAIL) project, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the US Department of Energy (DOE), the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) program, and the GOSAT validation aircraft observation campaign over Japan. To calculate XCO 2 based on aircraft measurements (aircraft-based XCO 2 ), tower measurements and model outputs were used for additional information near the surface and above the tropopause, respectively. Before validation, we investigated the impacts of GOSAT SWIR column averaging kernels (CAKs) and the shape of a priori profiles on the aircraft-based XCO 2 calculation. The differences between aircraft-based XCO 2 with and without the application of GOSAT CAK were evaluated to be less than ±0.4 ppm at most, and less than ±0.1 ppm on average. Therefore, we concluded that the GOSAT CAK produces only a minor effect on the aircraft-based XCO 2 calculation in terms of the overall uncertainty of GOSAT XCO 2 . We compared GOSAT data retrieved within ±2 or ±5° latitude/longitude boxes centered at each aircraft measurement site to aircraft-based data measured on a GOSAT overpass day. The results indicated that GOSAT XCO 2 over land regions agreed with aircraft-based XCO 2 , except that the former is biased by −0.68 ppm (−0.99 ppm) with a standard deviation of 2.56 ppm (2.51 ppm), whereas the averages of the differences between the GOSAT XCO 2 over ocean and the aircraft-based XCO 2 were −1.82 ppm (−2.27 ppm) with a standard deviation of 1.04 ppm (1.79 ppm) for ±2° (±5°) boxes.

Description: A comparison of atmospheric composition using the Carbon Bond and Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanisms Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9695-9712, 2013 Author(s): G. Sarwar, J. Godowitch, B. H. Henderson, K. Fahey, G. Pouliot, W. T. Hutzell, R. Mathur, D. Kang, W. S. Goliff, and W. R. Stockwell We incorporate the recently developed Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism (version 2, RACM2) into the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system for comparison with the existing 2005 Carbon Bond mechanism with updated toluene chemistry (CB05TU). Compared to CB05TU, RACM2 enhances the domain-wide monthly mean hydroxyl radical concentrations by 46% and nitric acid by 26%. However, it reduces hydrogen peroxide by 2%, peroxyacetic acid by 94%, methyl hydrogen peroxide by 19%, peroxyacetyl nitrate by 40%, and organic nitrate by 41%. RACM2 enhances ozone compared to CB05TU at all ambient levels. Although it exhibited greater overestimates at lower observed concentrations, it displayed an improved performance at higher observed concentrations. The RACM2 ozone predictions are also supported by increased ozone production efficiency that agrees better with observations. Compared to CB05TU, RACM2 enhances the domain-wide monthly mean sulfate by 10%, nitrate by 6%, ammonium by 10%, anthropogenic secondary organic aerosols by 42%, biogenic secondary organic aerosols by 5%, and in-cloud secondary organic aerosols by 7%. Increased inorganic and organic aerosols with RACM2 agree better with observed data. Any air pollution control strategies developed using the two mechanisms do not differ appreciably.

Description: Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9713-9729, 2013 Author(s): A. Stenke, C. R. Hoyle, B. Luo, E. Rozanov, J. Gröbner, L. Maag, S. Brönnimann, and T. Peter Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a cooling of several degrees. In the stratosphere, the strong heating leads to an acceleration of catalytic ozone loss and, consequently, to enhancements of UV radiation at the ground. In contrast to surface temperature and precipitation changes, which show a linear dependence to the soot burden, there is a saturation effect with respect to stratospheric ozone chemistry. Soot emissions of 5 Tg lead to an ozone column reduction of almost 50% in northern high latitudes, while emitting 12 Tg only increases ozone loss by a further 10%. In summary, this study, though using a different chemistry climate model, corroborates the previous investigations with respect to the atmospheric impacts. In addition to these persistent effects, the present study draws attention to episodically cold phases, which would likely add to the severity of human harm worldwide. The best insurance against such a catastrophic development would be the delegitimization of nuclear weapons.

Description: High-resolution Med-CORDEX regional climate model simulations for hydrological impact studies: a first evaluation of the ALADIN-Climate model in Morocco Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3721-3739, 2013 Author(s): Y. Tramblay, D. Ruelland, S. Somot, R. Bouaicha, and E. Servat In the framework of the international CORDEX program, new regional climate model (RCM) simulations at high spatial resolutions are becoming available for the Mediterranean region (Med-CORDEX initiative). This study provides the first evaluation for hydrological impact studies of one of these high-resolution simulations in a 1800 km 2 catchment located in North Morocco. Different approaches are compared to analyze the climate change impacts on the hydrology of this catchment using a high-resolution RCM (ALADIN-Climate) from the Med-CORDEX initiative at two different spatial resolutions (50 and 12 km) and for two different Radiative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The main issues addressed in the present study are: (i) what is the impact of increased RCM resolution on present-climate hydrological simulations and on future projections? (ii) Are the bias-correction of the RCM model and the parameters of the hydrological model stationary and transferable to different climatic conditions? (iii) What is the climate and hydrological change signal based on the new Radiative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)? Results indicate that high resolution simulations at 12 km better reproduce the seasonal patterns, the seasonal distributions and the extreme events of precipitation. The parameters of the hydrological model, calibrated to reproduce runoff at the monthly time step over the 1984–2010 period, do not show a strong variability between dry and wet calibration periods in a differential split-sample test. However the bias correction of precipitation by quantile-matching does not give satisfactory results in validation using the same differential split-sample testing method. Therefore a quantile-perturbation method that does not rely on any stationarity assumption and produces ensembles of perturbed series of precipitation was introduced. The climate change signal under scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 indicates a decrease of respectively −30 to −57% in surface runoff for the mid-term (2041–2062), when for the same period the projections for precipitation are ranging between −15 and −19% and for temperature between +1.3 and +1.9 °C.

Description: Observations of peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) in the upper troposphere by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 5601-5613, 2013 Author(s): K. A. Tereszchuk, D. P. Moore, J. J. Harrison, C. D. Boone, M. Park, J. J. Remedios, W. J. Randel, and P. F. Bernath Peroxyacetyl nitrate (CH 3 CO·O 2 NO 2 , abbreviated as PAN) is a trace molecular species present in the troposphere and lower stratosphere due primarily to pollution from fuel combustion and the pyrogenic outflows from biomass burning. In the lower troposphere, PAN has a relatively short lifetime and is principally destroyed within a few hours through thermolysis, but it can act as a reservoir and carrier of NO x in the colder temperatures of the upper troposphere, where UV photolysis becomes the dominant loss mechanism. Pyroconvective updrafts from large biomass burning events can inject PAN into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), providing a means for the long-range transport of NO x . Given the extended lifetimes at these higher altitudes, PAN is readily detectable via satellite remote sensing. A new PAN data product is now available for the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) version 3.0 data set. We report observations of PAN in boreal biomass burning plumes recorded during the BORTAS (quantifying the impact of BOReal forest fires on Tropospheric oxidants over the Atlantic using Aircraft and Satellites) campaign (12 July to 3 August 2011). The retrieval method employed by incorporating laboratory-recorded absorption cross sections into version 3.0 of the ACE-FTS forward model and retrieval software is described in full detail. The estimated detection limit for ACE-FTS PAN is 5 pptv, and the total systematic error contribution to the ACE-FTS PAN retrieval is ~ 16%. The retrieved volume mixing ratio (VMR) profiles are compared to coincident measurements made by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instrument on the European Space Agency (ESA) Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT). The MIPAS measurements demonstrated good agreement with the ACE-FTS VMR profiles for PAN, where the measured VMR values are well within the associated measurement errors for both instruments and comparative measurements differ no more than 70 pptv. The ACE-FTS PAN data set is used to obtain zonal mean distributions of seasonal averages from ~ 5–20 km. A strong seasonality is clearly observed for PAN concentrations in the global UTLS. Since the principal source of PAN in the UTLS is due to lofted biomass burning emissions from the pyroconvective updrafts created by large fires, the observed seasonality in enhanced PAN coincides with fire activity in different geographical regions throughout the year.

Description: Multiple daytime nucleation events in semi-clean savannah and industrial environments in South Africa: analysis based on observations Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 5523-5532, 2013 Author(s): A. Hirsikko, V. Vakkari, P. Tiitta, J. Hatakka, V.-M. Kerminen, A.-M. Sundström, J. P. Beukes, H. E. Manninen, M. Kulmala, and L. Laakso Recent studies have shown very high frequencies of atmospheric new particle formation in different environments in South Africa. Our aim here was to investigate the causes for two or three consecutive daytime nucleation events, followed by subsequent particle growth during the same day. We analysed 108 and 31 such days observed in a polluted industrial and moderately polluted rural environments, respectively, in South Africa. The analysis was based on two years of measurements at each site. After rejecting the days having notable changes in the air mass origin or local wind direction, i.e. two major reasons for observed multiple nucleation events, we were able to investigate other factors causing this phenomenon. Clouds were present during, or in between most of the analysed multiple particle formation events. Therefore, some of these events may have been single events, interrupted somehow by the presence of clouds. From further analysis, we propose that the first nucleation and growth event of the day was often associated with the mixing of a residual air layer rich in SO 2 (oxidized to sulphuric acid) into the shallow surface-coupled layer. The second nucleation and growth event of the day usually started before midday and was sometimes associated with renewed SO 2 emissions from industrial origin. However, it was also evident that vapours other than sulphuric acid were required for the particle growth during both events. This was especially the case when two simultaneously growing particle modes were observed. Based on our analysis, we conclude that the relative contributions of estimated H 2 SO 4 and other vapours on the first and second nucleation and growth events of the day varied from day to day, depending on anthropogenic and natural emissions, as well as atmospheric conditions.

Description: Evolution of particle composition in CLOUD nucleation experiments Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 5587-5600, 2013 Author(s): H. Keskinen, A. Virtanen, J. Joutsensaari, G. Tsagkogeorgas, J. Duplissy, S. Schobesberger, M. Gysel, F. Riccobono, J. G. Slowik, F. Bianchi, T. Yli-Juuti, K. Lehtipalo, L. Rondo, M. Breitenlechner, A. Kupc, J. Almeida, A. Amorim, E. M. Dunne, A. J. Downard, S. Ehrhart, A. Franchin, M.K. Kajos, J. Kirkby, A. Kürten, T. Nieminen, V. Makhmutov, S. Mathot, P. Miettinen, A. Onnela, T. Petäjä, A. Praplan, F. D. Santos, S. Schallhart, M. Sipilä, Y. Stozhkov, A. Tomé, P. Vaattovaara, D. Wimmer, A. Prevot, J. Dommen, N. M. Donahue, R.C. Flagan, E. Weingartner, Y. Viisanen, I. Riipinen, A. Hansel, J. Curtius, M. Kulmala, D. R. Worsnop, U. Baltensperger, H. Wex, F. Stratmann, and A. Laaksonen Sulphuric acid, ammonia, amines, and oxidised organics play a crucial role in nanoparticle formation in the atmosphere. In this study, we investigate the composition of nucleated nanoparticles formed from these compounds in the CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets) chamber experiments at CERN (Centre européen pour la recherche nucléaire). The investigation was carried out via analysis of the particle hygroscopicity, ethanol affinity, oxidation state, and ion composition. Hygroscopicity was studied by a hygroscopic tandem differential mobility analyser and a cloud condensation nuclei counter, ethanol affinity by an organic differential mobility analyser and particle oxidation level by a high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer. The ion composition was studied by an atmospheric pressure interface time-of-flight mass spectrometer. The volume fraction of the organics in the particles during their growth from sizes of a few nanometers to tens of nanometers was derived from measured hygroscopicity assuming the Zdanovskii–Stokes–Robinson relationship, and compared to values gained from the spectrometers. The ZSR-relationship was also applied to obtain the measured ethanol affinities during the particle growth, which were used to derive the volume fractions of sulphuric acid and the other inorganics (e.g. ammonium salts). In the presence of sulphuric acid and ammonia, particles with a mobility diameter of 150 nm were chemically neutralised to ammonium sulphate. In the presence of oxidation products of pinanediol, the organic volume fraction of freshly nucleated particles increased from 0.4 to ~0.9, with an increase in diameter from 2 to 63 nm. Conversely, the sulphuric acid volume fraction decreased from 0.6 to 0.1 when the particle diameter increased from 2 to 50 nm. The results provide information on the composition of nucleated aerosol particles during their growth in the presence of various combinations of sulphuric acid, ammonia, dimethylamine and organic oxidation products.

Description: Comparison of three vertically resolved ozone data sets: climatology, trends and radiative forcings Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 5533-5550, 2013 Author(s): B. Hassler, P. J. Young, R. W. Portmann, G. E. Bodeker, J. S. Daniel, K. H. Rosenlof, and S. Solomon Climate models that do not simulate changes in stratospheric ozone concentrations require the prescription of ozone fields to accurately calculate UV fluxes and stratospheric heating rates. In this study, three different global ozone time series that are available for this purpose are compared: the data set of Randel and Wu (2007) (RW07), Cionni et al. (2011) (SPARC), and Bodeker et al. (2013) (BDBP). All three data sets represent multiple-linear regression fits to vertically resolved ozone observations, resulting in a spatially and temporally continuous stratospheric ozone field covering at least the period from 1979 to 2005. The main differences among the data sets result from regression models, which use different observations and include different basis functions. The data sets are compared against ozonesonde and satellite observations to assess how the data sets represent concentrations, trends and interannual variability. In the Southern Hemisphere polar region, RW07 and SPARC underestimate the ozone depletion in spring ozonesonde measurements. A piecewise linear trend regression is performed to estimate the 1979–1996 ozone decrease globally, covering a period of extreme depletion in most regions. BDBP overestimates Arctic and tropical ozone depletion over this period relative to the available measurements, whereas the depletion is underestimated in RW07 and SPARC. While the three data sets yield ozone concentrations that are within a range of different observations, there is a large spread in their respective ozone trends. One consequence of this is differences of almost a factor of four in the calculated stratospheric ozone radiative forcing between the data sets (RW07: −0.038 Wm −2 , SPARC: −0.033 Wm −2 , BDBP: −0.119 Wm −2 ), important in assessing the contribution of stratospheric ozone depletion to the total anthropogenic radiative forcing.

Description: Errors in climate model daily precipitation and temperature output: time invariance and implications for bias correction Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2147-2159, 2013 Author(s): E. P. Maurer, T. Das, and D. R. Cayan When correcting for biases in general circulation model (GCM) output, for example when statistically downscaling for regional and local impacts studies, a common assumption is that the GCM biases can be characterized by comparing model simulations and observations for a historical period. We demonstrate some complications in this assumption, with GCM biases varying between mean and extreme values and for different sets of historical years. Daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature from late 20th century simulations by four GCMs over the United States were compared to gridded observations. Using random years from the historical record we select a "base" set and a 10 yr independent "projected" set. We compare differences in biases between these sets at median and extreme percentiles. On average a base set with as few as 4 randomly-selected years is often adequate to characterize the biases in daily GCM precipitation and temperature, at both median and extreme values; 12 yr provided higher confidence that bias correction would be successful. This suggests that some of the GCM bias is time invariant. When characterizing bias with a set of consecutive years, the set must be long enough to accommodate regional low frequency variability, since the bias also exhibits this variability. Newer climate models included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fifth assessment will allow extending this study for a longer observational period and to finer scales.

Description: Characterization of groundwater dynamics in landslides in varved clays Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2171-2183, 2013 Author(s): J. E. van der Spek, T. A. Bogaard, and M. Bakker Groundwater dynamics may play a significant role in landslides. A detailed model is developed of the groundwater dynamics in landslides in varved clays in the Trièves area in the French Alps. The varved clays consist of a sequence of alternating silt and clay layers, covered by a colluvium layer and intersected by fissures. The hydraulic conductivity of the clay layers is negligible compared to the silt layers. It is conceptualized that fissures form a hydraulic connection between the colluvium and the varved clays. Groundwater recharge flows through the colluvium into the fissures, where water is exchanged horizontally between the fissure and the silt layers of the varved clays. Groundwater flow in the colluvium is simulated with the Boussinesq equation, while flow in the silt layers of the varved clays is simulated with the Richards equation. Longitudinal outflow from the fissure is simulated with a linear-reservoir model. Scattered data of relatively short monitoring periods is available for several landslides in the region. A good similarity between observed and simulated heads is obtained, especially when considering the lack of important physical parameters such as the fissure width and the distance between the monitoring point and the fissure. A simulation for the period 1959–2004 showed some correlation between peaks in the simulated heads and the recorded occurrence of landslides, while the bottom of the varved clays remained saturated during the entire simulation period.

Description: Assessing the hydrological effect of the check dams in the Loess Plateau, China, by model simulations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2185-2193, 2013 Author(s): Y. D. Xu, B. J. Fu, and C. S. He Check dams are commonly used for soil conservation. In the Loess Plateau of China, check dams have been widely constructed as the principal means to retain floodwater and intercept soil sediments since the 1970s. For instance, there are more than 6572 check dams in the Yanhe watershed with an area of 7725 km 2 in the Loess Plateau. However, little research has been done to quantify the hydrological effects of the check dams. In this research, the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was applied to simulate the runoff and sediment in the Yanhe watershed. We treated the 1950s to 1960s as the reference period since there were very few check dams during the period. The model was firstly calibrated and validated in the reference period. The calibrated model was then used in the later periods to simulate the hydrological effects of the check dams. The results showed that the check dams had a regulation effect on runoff and a retention effect on sediment. From 1984 to 1987, the runoff in rainy season (from May to October) decreased by 1.54 m 3 s −1 (14.7%) to 3.13 m 3 s −1 (25.9%) due to the check dams; while in dry season (from November to the following April), runoff increased by 1.46 m 3 s −1 (60.5%) to 1.95 m 3 s −1 (101.2%); the sediment in rainy season decreased by 2.49 × 10 6 ton (34.6%) to 4.35 × 10 6 ton (48.0%). From 2006 to 2008, the runoff in rainy season decreased by 0.79 m 3 s −1 (15.5%) to 1.75 m 3 s −1 (28.9%), and the runoff in dry season increased by 0.51 m 3 s −1 (20.1%) to 0.97 m 3 s −1 (46.4%); the sediment in rainy season decreased by 2.03 × 10 6 ton (79.4%) to 3.12 × 10 6 ton (85.5%). Construction of the large number of check dams in the Loess Plateau has enhanced the region's capacity to control the runoff and sediment. In the Yanhe watershed, the annual runoff was reduced by less than 14.3% due to the check dams; and the sediment in rainy season was blocked by up to 85.5%. Thus, check dams are effective measures for soil erosion control in the Loess Plateau.

Description: Newly observed peroxides and the water effect on the formation and removal of hydroxyalkyl hydroperoxides in the ozonolysis of isoprene Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 5671-5683, 2013 Author(s): D. Huang, Z. M. Chen, Y. Zhao, and H. Liang The ozonolysis of alkenes is considered to be an important source of atmospheric peroxides, which serve as oxidants, reservoirs of HO x radicals, and components of secondary organic aerosols (SOAs). Recent laboratory investigations of this reaction identified hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ) and hydroxymethyl hydroperoxide (HMHP) in ozonolysis of isoprene. Although larger hydroxyalkyl hydroperoxides (HAHPs) were also expected, their presence is not currently supported by experimental evidence. In the present study, we investigated the formation of peroxides in the gas phase ozonolysis of isoprene at various relative humidities on a time scale of tens of seconds, using a quartz flow tube reactor coupled with the online detection of peroxides. We detected a variety of conventional peroxides, including H 2 O 2 , HMHP, methyl hydroperoxide, bis-hydroxymethyl hydroperoxide, and ethyl hydroperoxide, and interestingly found three unknown peroxides. The molar yields of the conventional peroxides fell within the range of values provided in the literature. The three unknown peroxides had a combined molar yield of ~ 30% at 5% relative humidity (RH), which was comparable with that of the conventional peroxides. Unlike H 2 O 2 and HMHP, the molar yields of these three unknown peroxides were inversely related to the RH. On the basis of experimental kinetic and box model analysis, we tentatively assigned these unknown peroxides to C2−C4 HAHPs, which are produced by the reactions of different Criegee intermediates with water. Our study provides experimental evidence for the formation of large HAHPs in the ozonolysis of isoprene (one of the alkenes). These large HAHPs have a sufficiently long lifetime, estimated as tens of minutes, which allows them to become involved in atmospheric chemical processes, e.g., SOA formation and radical recycling.

Description: Megacity impacts on regional ozone formation: observations and WRF-Chem modeling for the MIRAGE-Shanghai field campaign Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 5655-5669, 2013 Author(s): X. Tie, F. Geng, A. Guenther, J. Cao, J. Greenberg, R. Zhang, E. Apel, G. Li, A. Weinheimer, J. Chen, and C. Cai The MIRAGE-Shanghai experiment was designed to characterize the factors controlling regional air pollution near a Chinese megacity (Shanghai) and was conducted during September 2009. This paper provides information on the measurements conducted for this study. In order to have some deep analysis of the measurements, a regional chemical/dynamical model (version 3 of Weather Research and Forecasting Chemical model – WRF-Chemv3) is applied for this study. The model results are intensively compared with the measurements to evaluate the model capability for calculating air pollutants in the Shanghai region, especially the chemical species related to ozone formation. The results show that the model is able to calculate the general distributions (the level and the variability) of air pollutants in the Shanghai region, and the differences between the model calculation and the measurement are mostly smaller than 30%, except the calculations of HONO (nitrous acid) at PD (Pudong) and CO (carbon monoxide) at DT (Dongtan). The main scientific focus is the study of ozone chemical formation not only in the urban area, but also on a regional scale of the surrounding area of Shanghai. The results show that during the experiment period, the ozone photochemical formation was strongly under the VOC (volatile organic compound)-limited condition in the urban area of Shanghai. Moreover, the VOC-limited condition occurred not only in the city, but also in the larger regional area. There was a continuous enhancement of ozone concentrations in the downwind of the megacity of Shanghai, resulting in a significant enhancement of ozone concentrations in a very large regional area in the surrounding region of Shanghai. The sensitivity study of the model suggests that there is a threshold value for switching from VOC-limited condition to NO x (nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide)-limited condition. The threshold value is strongly dependent on the emission ratio of NO x / VOCs. When the ratio is about 0.4, the Shanghai region is under a strong VOC-limited condition over the regional scale. In contrast, when the ratio is reduced to about 0.1, the Shanghai region is under a strong NO x -limited condition. The estimated threshold value (on the regional scale) for switching from VOC-limited to NO x -limited condition ranges from 0.1 to 0.2. This result has important implications for ozone production in this region and will facilitate the development of effective O 3 control strategies in the Shanghai region.

Description: Estimate of surface direct radiative forcing of desert dust from atmospheric modulation of the aerosol optical depth Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 5647-5654, 2013 Author(s): A. di Sarra, D. Fuà, and D. Meloni Measurements carried out on the island of Lampedusa, in the central Mediterranean, on 7 September 2005, show the occurrence of a quasi-periodic oscillation of aerosol optical depth, column water vapour, and surface irradiance in different spectral bands. The oscillation has a period of about 13 min and is attributed to the propagation of a gravity wave able to modify the vertical structure of the planetary boundary layer, as also confirmed by satellite images. The wave occurred during a Saharan dust event. The oscillation amplitude is about 0.1 for the aerosol optical depth, and about 0.4 cm for the column water vapour. The modulation of the downward surface irradiances is in opposition of phase with respect to aerosol optical depth and water vapour column variations. The perturbation of the downward irradiance produced by the aerosols is determined by comparing the measured irradiances with estimated irradiances at a fixed value of the aerosol optical depth, and by correcting for the effect of the water vapour in the shortwave spectral range. The direct radiative forcing efficiency, i.e., the radiative perturbation of the net surface irradiance produced by a unit of optical depth aerosol layer, is determined at different solar zenith angles as the slope of the irradiance perturbation versus the aerosol optical depth. The estimated direct surface forcing efficiency at about 60° solar zenith angle is −(181 ± 17) W m −2 in the shortwave, and −(83 ± 7) W m −2 in the photosynthetic spectral range. The estimated daily average forcing efficiencies are of about −79 and −46 W m −2 for the shortwave and photosynthetic spectral range, respectively.

Description: On the "well-mixed" assumption and numerical 2-D tracing of atmospheric moisture Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 5567-5585, 2013 Author(s): H. F. Goessling and C. H. Reick Atmospheric water vapour tracers (WVTs) are an elegant tool to determine source–sink relations of moisture "online" in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). However, it is sometimes desirable to establish such relations "offline" based on already existing atmospheric data (e.g. reanalysis data). One simple and frequently applied offline method is 2-D moisture tracing. It makes use of the "well-mixed" assumption, which allows for treating the vertical dimension integratively. Here we scrutinise the "well-mixed" assumption and 2-D moisture tracing by means of analytical considerations in combination with AGCM-WVT simulations. We find that vertically well-mixed conditions are seldom met. Due to the presence of vertical inhomogeneities, 2-D moisture tracing (i) neglects a significant degree of fast-recycling, and (ii) results in erroneous advection where the direction of the horizontal winds varies vertically. The latter is not so much the case in the extratropics, but in the tropics this can lead to large errors. For example, computed by 2-D moisture tracing, the fraction of precipitation in the western Sahel that originates from beyond the Sahara is ~40%, whereas the fraction that originates from the tropical and Southern Atlantic is only ~4%. According to full (i.e. 3-D) moisture tracing, however, both regions contribute roughly equally, showing that the errors introduced by the 2-D approximation can be substantial.

Description: Southern hemispheric halon trends and global halon emissions, 1978–2011 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 5551-5565, 2013 Author(s): M. J. Newland, C. E. Reeves, D. E. Oram, J. C. Laube, W. T. Sturges, C. Hogan, P. Begley, and P. J. Fraser The atmospheric records of four halons, H-1211 (CBrClF 2 ), H-1301 (CBrF 3 ), H-2402 (CBrF 2 CBrF 2 ) and H-1202 (CBr 2 F 2 ), measured from air collected at Cape Grim, Tasmania, between 1978 and 2011, are reported. Mixing ratios of H-1211, H-2402 and H-1202 began to decline in the early to mid-2000s, but those of H-1301 continue to increase up to mid-2011. These trends are compared to those reported by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Experiment). The observations suggest that the contribution of the halons to total tropospheric bromine at Cape Grim has begun to decline from a peak in 2008 of about 8.1 ppt. An extrapolation of halon mixing ratios to 2060, based on reported banks and predicted release factors, shows this decline becoming more rapid in the coming decades, with a contribution to total tropospheric bromine of about 3 ppt in 2060. Top-down global annual emissions of the halons were derived using a two-dimensional atmospheric model. The emissions of all four have decreased since peaking in the late 1980s–mid-1990s, but this decline has slowed recently, particularly for H-1301 and H-2402 which have shown no decrease in emissions over the past five years. The UEA (University of East Anglia) top-down model-derived emissions are compared to those reported using a top-down approach by NOAA and AGAGE and the bottom-up estimates of HTOC (Halons Technical Options Committee). The implications of an alternative set of steady-state atmospheric lifetimes are discussed. Using a lifetime of 14 yr or less for H-1211 to calculate top-down emissions estimates would lead to small, or even negative, estimated banks given reported production data. Finally emissions of H-1202, a product of over-bromination during the production process of H-1211, have continued despite reported production of H-1211 ceasing in 2010. This raises questions as to the source of these H-1202 emissions.

Description: Impacts of aircraft emissions on the air quality near the ground Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 5505-5522, 2013 Author(s): H. Lee, S. C. Olsen, D. J. Wuebbles, and D. Youn The continuing increase in demand for commercial aviation transport raises questions about the effects of resulting emissions on the environment. The purpose of this study is to investigate, using a global chemistry transport model, to what extent aviation emissions outside the boundary layer influence air quality in the boundary layer. The large-scale effects of current levels of aircraft emissions were studied through comparison of multiple simulations allowing for the separated effects of aviation emissions occurring in the low, middle and upper troposphere. We show that emissions near cruise altitudes (9–11 km in altitude) rather than emissions during landing and take-off are responsible for most of the total odd-nitrogen (NO y ), ozone (O 3 ) and aerosol perturbations near the ground with a noticeable seasonal difference. Overall, the perturbations of these species are smaller than 1 ppb even in winter when the perturbations are greater than in summer. Based on the widely used air quality standards and uncertainty of state-of-the-art models, we conclude that aviation-induced perturbations have a negligible effect on air quality even in areas with heavy air traffic. Aviation emissions lead to a less than 1% aerosol enhancement in the boundary layer due to a slight increase in ammonium nitrate (NH 4 NO 3 ) during cold seasons and a statistically insignificant aerosol perturbation in summer. In addition, statistical analysis using probability density functions, Hellinger distance, and p value indicate that aviation emissions outside the boundary layer do not affect the occurrence of extremely high aerosol concentrations in the boundary layer. An additional sensitivity simulation assuming the doubling of surface ammonia emissions demonstrates that the aviation induced aerosol increase near the ground is highly dependent on background ammonia concentrations whose current range of uncertainty is large.

Description: Determining spatial variability of dry spells: a Markov-based method, applied to the Makanya catchment, Tanzania Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2161-2170, 2013 Author(s): B. M. C. Fischer, M. L. Mul, and H. H. G. Savenije With a growing world population and a trend towards more resource-intensive diets, pressure on land and water resources for food production will continue to increase in the coming decades. Large parts of the world rely on rainfed agriculture for their food security. In Africa, 90% of the food production is from rainfed agriculture, generally with low yields and a high risk of crop failure. One of the main reasons for crop failure is the occurrence of dry spells during the growing season. Key indicators are the critical dry spell duration and the probability of dry spell occurrence. In this paper a new Markov-based framework is presented to spatially map the length of dry spells for fixed probabilities of non-exceedance. The framework makes use of spatially varying Markov coefficients that are correlated to readily available spatial information such as elevation and distance to the sea. The dry spell map thus obtained is compared to the spatially variable critical dry spell duration, based on soil properties and crop water requirements, to assess the probability of crop failure in different locations. The results show that in the Makanya catchment the length of dry spell occurrence is highly variable in space, even over relatively short distances. In certain areas the probability of crop failure reaches levels that make rainfed agricultural unsustainable, even close to areas where currently rainfed agriculture is successfully being practised. This method can be used to identify regions that are vulnerable to dry spells and, subsequently, to develop strategies for supplementary irrigation or rainwater harvesting.

Description: Corrigendum to "Tropospheric NO 2 vertical column densities over Beijing: results of the first three years of ground-based MAX-DOAS measurements (2008–2011) and satellite validation" published in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1547–1567, 2013 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 5629-5629, 2013 Author(s): J. Z. Ma, S. Beirle, J. L. Jin, R. Shaiganfar, P. Yan, and T. Wagner No abstract available.

Description: Large-eddy simulation of organized precipitating trade wind cumulus clouds Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 5631-5645, 2013 Author(s): A. Seifert and T. Heus Trade wind cumulus clouds often organize in along-wind cloud streets and across-wind mesoscale arcs. We present a benchmark large-eddy simulation which resolves the individual clouds as well as the mesoscale organization on scales of O(10 km). Different methods to quantify organization of cloud fields are applied and discussed. Using perturbed physics large-eddy simulation experiments, the processes leading to the formation of cloud clusters and the mesoscale arcs are revealed. We find that both cold pools as well as the sub-cloud layer moisture field are crucial to understand the organization of precipitating shallow convection. Further sensitivity studies show that microphysical assumptions can have a pronounced impact on the onset of cloud organization.

Description: Estimating actual, potential, reference crop and pan evaporation using standard meteorological data: a pragmatic synthesis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1331-1363, 2013 Author(s): T. A. McMahon, M. C. Peel, L. Lowe, R. Srikanthan, and T. R. McVicar This guide to estimating daily and monthly actual, potential, reference crop and pan evaporation covers topics that are of interest to researchers, consulting hydrologists and practicing engineers. Topics include estimating actual evaporation from deep lakes and from farm dams and for catchment water balance studies, estimating potential evaporation as input to rainfall-runoff models, and reference crop evapotranspiration for small irrigation areas, and for irrigation within large irrigation districts. Inspiration for this guide arose in response to the authors' experiences in reviewing research papers and consulting reports where estimation of the actual evaporation component in catchment and water balance studies was often inadequately handled. Practical guides using consistent terminology that cover both theory and practice are not readily available. Here we provide such a guide, which is divided into three parts. The first part provides background theory and an outline of the conceptual models of potential evaporation of Penman, Penman–Monteith and Priestley–Taylor, as well as discussions of reference crop evapotranspiration and Class-A pan evaporation. The last two sub-sections in this first part include techniques to estimate actual evaporation from (i) open-surface water and (ii) landscapes and catchments (Morton and the advection-aridity models). The second part addresses topics confronting a practicing hydrologist, e.g. estimating actual evaporation for deep lakes, shallow lakes and farm dams, lakes covered with vegetation, catchments, irrigation areas and bare soil. The third part addresses six related issues: (i) automatic (hard wired) calculation of evaporation estimates in commercial weather stations, (ii) evaporation estimates without wind data, (iii) at-site meteorological data, (iv) dealing with evaporation in a climate change environment, (v) 24 h versus day-light hour estimation of meteorological variables, and (vi) uncertainty in evaporation estimates. This paper is supported by a Supplement that includes 21 sections enhancing the material in the text, worked examples of many procedures discussed in the paper, a program listing (Fortran 90) of Morton's WREVAP evaporation models along with tables of monthly Class-A pan coefficients for 68 locations across Australia and other information.

Description: Investigation of gaseous and particulate emissions from various marine vessel types measured on the banks of the Elbe in Northern Germany Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 3603-3618, 2013 Author(s): J.-M. Diesch, F. Drewnick, T. Klimach, and S. Borrmann Measurements of the ambient aerosol, various trace gases and meteorological quantities using a mobile laboratory (MoLa) were performed on the banks of the Lower Elbe in an emission control area (ECA) which is passed by numerous private and commercial marine vessels reaching and leaving the port of Hamburg, Germany. From 25–29 April 2011 a total of 178 vessels were probed at a distance of about 0.8–1.2 km with high temporal resolution. 139 ship emission plumes were of sufficient quality to be analyzed further and to determine emission factors (EFs). Concentrations of aerosol number and mass as well as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and black carbon were measured in PM 1 and size distribution instruments covered the diameter range from 6 nm up to 32 μm. The chemical composition of the non-refractory submicron aerosol was measured by means of an Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (Aerodyne HR-ToF-AMS). Gas phase species analyzers monitored various trace gases (O 3 , SO 2 , NO, NO 2 , CO 2 ) in the air and a weather station provided wind, precipitation, solar radiation data and other quantities. Together with ship information for each vessel obtained from Automatic Identification System (AIS) broadcasts a detailed characterization of the individual ship types and of features affecting gas and particulate emissions is provided. Particle number EFs (average 2.6 e +16 # kg −1 ) and PM 1 mass EFs (average 2.4 g kg −1 ) tend to increase with the fuel sulfur content. Observed PM 1 composition of the vessel emissions was dominated by organic matter (72%), sulfate (22%) and black carbon (6%) while PAHs only account for 0.2% of the submicron aerosol mass. Measurements of gaseous components showed an increase of SO 2 (average EF: 7.7 g kg −1 ) and NO x (average EF: 53 g kg −1 ) while O 3 decreased when a ship plume reached the sampling site. The particle number size distributions of the vessels are generally characterized by a bimodal size distribution, with the nucleation mode in the 10–20 nm diameter range and a combustion aerosol mode centered at about 35 nm while particles \textgreater 1 μm were not found. "High particle number emitters" are characterized by a dominant nucleation mode. By contrast, increased particle concentrations around 150 nm primarily occurred for "high black carbon emitters". Classifying the vessels according to their gross tonnage shows a decrease of the number, black carbon and PAH EFs while EFs of SO 2 , NO, NO 2 , NO x , AMS species (particulate organics, sulfate) and PM 1 mass concentration increase with increasing gross tonnages.

Description: Modeling of daytime HONO vertical gradients during SHARP 2009 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 3587-3601, 2013 Author(s): K. W. Wong, C. Tsai, B. Lefer, N. Grossberg, and J. Stutz Nitrous acid (HONO) acts as a major precursor of the hydroxyl radical (OH) in the urban atmospheric boundary layer in the morning and throughout the day. Despite its importance, HONO formation mechanisms are not yet completely understood. It is generally accepted that conversion of NO 2 on surfaces in the presence of water is responsible for the formation of HONO in the nocturnal boundary layer, although the type of surface on which the mechanism occurs is still under debate. Recent observations of higher than expected daytime HONO concentrations in both urban and rural areas indicate the presence of unknown daytime HONO source(s). Various formation pathways in the gas phase, and on aerosol and ground surfaces have been proposed to explain the presence of daytime HONO. However, it is unclear which mechanism dominates and, in the cases of heterogeneous mechanisms, on which surfaces they occur. Vertical concentration profiles of HONO and its precursors can help in identifying the dominant HONO formation pathways. In this study, daytime HONO and NO 2 vertical profiles, measured in three different height intervals (20–70, 70–130, and 130–300 m) in Houston, TX, during the 2009 Study of Houston Atmospheric Radical Precursors (SHARP) are analyzed using a one-dimensional (1-D) chemistry and transport model. Model results with various HONO formation pathways suggested in the literature are compared to the the daytime HONO and HONO/NO 2 ratios observed during SHARP. The best agreement of HONO and HONO/NO 2 ratios between model and observations is achieved by including both a photolytic source of HONO at the ground and on the aerosol. Model sensitivity studies show that the observed diurnal variations of the HONO/NO 2 ratio are not reproduced by the model if there is only a photolytic HONO source on aerosol or in the gas phase from NO 2 * + H 2 O. Further analysis of the formation and loss pathways of HONO shows a vertical dependence of HONO chemistry during the day. Photolytic HONO formation at the ground is the major formation pathway in the lowest 20 m, while a combination of gas-phase, photolytic formation on aerosol, and vertical transport is responsible for daytime HONO between 200–300 m a.g.l. HONO removal is dominated by vertical transport below 20 m and photolysis between 200–300 m a.g.l.

Description: Antarctic new particle formation from continental biogenic precursors Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 3527-3546, 2013 Author(s): E.-M. Kyrö, V.-M. Kerminen, A. Virkkula, M. Dal Maso, J. Parshintsev, J. Ruíz-Jimenez, L. Forsström, H. E. Manninen, M.-L. Riekkola, P. Heinonen, and M. Kulmala Over Antarctica, aerosol particles originate almost entirely from marine areas, with minor contribution from long-range transported dust or anthropogenic material. The Antarctic continent itself, unlike all other continental areas, has been thought to be practically free of aerosol sources. Here we present evidence of local aerosol production associated with melt-water ponds in continental Antarctica. We show that in air masses passing such ponds, new aerosol particles are efficiently formed and these particles grow up to sizes where they may act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The precursor vapours responsible for aerosol formation and growth originate very likely from highly abundant cyanobacteria Nostoc commune (Vaucher) communities of local ponds. This is the first time freshwater vegetation has been identified as an aerosol precursor source. The influence of the new source on clouds and climate may increase in future Antarctica, and possibly elsewhere undergoing accelerating summer melting of semi-permanent snow cover.

Description: The influence of snow grain size and impurities on the vertical profiles of actinic flux and associated NO x emissions on the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 3547-3567, 2013 Author(s): M. C. Zatko, T. C. Grenfell, B. Alexander, S. J. Doherty, J. L. Thomas, and X. Yang We use observations of the absorption properties of black carbon and non-black carbon impurities in near-surface snow collected near the research stations at South Pole and Dome C, Antarctica, and Summit, Greenland, combined with a snowpack actinic flux parameterization to estimate the vertical profile and e-folding depth of ultraviolet/near-visible (UV/near-vis) actinic flux in the snowpack at each location. We have developed a simple and broadly applicable parameterization to calculate depth and wavelength dependent snowpack actinic flux that can be easily integrated into large-scale (e.g., 3-D) models of the atmosphere. The calculated e-folding depths of actinic flux at 305 nm, the peak wavelength of nitrate photolysis in the snowpack, are 8–12 cm near the stations and 15–31 cm away (〉11 km) from the stations. We find that the e-folding depth is strongly dependent on impurity content and wavelength in the UV/near-vis region, which explains the relatively shallow e-folding depths near stations where local activities lead to higher snow impurity levels. We calculate the lifetime of NO x in the snowpack interstitial air produced by photolysis of snowpack nitrate against wind pumping (τ wind pumping ) from the snowpack, and compare this to the calculated lifetime of NO x against chemical conversion to HNO 3 (τ chemical ) to determine whether the NO x produced at a given depth can escape from the snowpack to the overlying atmosphere. Comparison of τ wind pumping and τ chemical suggests efficient escape of photoproduced NO x in the snowpack to the overlying atmosphere throughout most of the photochemically active zone. Calculated vertical actinic flux profiles and observed snowpack nitrate concentrations are used to estimate the potential flux of NO x from the snowpack. Calculated NO x fluxes of 4.4 × 10 8 –3.8 × 10 9 molecules cm −2 s −1 in remote polar locations and 3.2–8.2 × 10 8 molecules cm −2 s −1 near polar stations for January at Dome C and South Pole and June at Summit suggest that NO x flux measurements near stations may be underestimating the amount of NO x emitted from the clean polar snowpack.

Description: The relative importance of impacts from climate change vs. emissions change on air pollution levels in the 21st century Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 3569-3585, 2013 Author(s): G. B. Hedegaard, J. H. Christensen, and J. Brandt So far several studies have analysed the impacts of climate change on future air pollution levels. Significant changes due to impacts of climate change have been made clear. Nevertheless, these changes are not yet included in national, regional or global air pollution reduction strategies. The changes in future air pollution levels are caused by both impacts from climate change and anthropogenic emission changes, the importance of which needs to be quantified and compared. In this study we use the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) driven by meteorological input data from the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM and forced with the newly developed RCP4.5 emissions. The relative importance of the climate signal and the signal from changes in anthropogenic emissions on the future ozone, black carbon (BC), total particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (total PM 2.5 including BC, primary organic carbon (OC), mineral dust and secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA)) and total nitrogen (including NH x + NO y ) has been determined. For ozone, the impacts of anthropogenic emissions dominate, though a climate penalty is found in the Arctic region and northwestern Europe, where the signal from climate change dampens the effect from the projected emission reductions of anthropogenic ozone precursors. The investigated particles are even more dominated by the impacts from emission changes. For black carbon the emission signal dominates slightly at high latitudes, with an increase up to an order of magnitude larger, close to the emission sources in temperate and subtropical areas. Including all particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (total PM 2.5 ) enhances the dominance from emissions change. In contrast, total nitrogen (NH x + NO y ) in parts of the Arctic and at low latitudes is dominated by impacts of climate change.

Description: Pollution transport from North America to Greenland during summer 2008 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 3825-3848, 2013 Author(s): J. L. Thomas, J.-C. Raut, K. S. Law, L. Marelle, G. Ancellet, F. Ravetta, J. D. Fast, G. Pfister, L. K. Emmons, G. S. Diskin, A. Weinheimer, A. Roiger, and H. Schlager Ozone pollution transported to the Arctic is a significant concern because of the rapid, enhanced warming in high northern latitudes, which is caused, in part, by short-lived climate forcers, such as ozone. Long-range transport of pollution contributes to background and episodic ozone levels in the Arctic. However, the extent to which plumes are photochemically active during transport, particularly during the summer, is still uncertain. In this study, regional chemical transport model simulations are used to examine photochemical production of ozone in air masses originating from boreal fire and anthropogenic emissions over North America and during their transport toward the Arctic during early July 2008. Model results are evaluated using POLARCAT aircraft data collected over boreal fire source regions in Canada (ARCTAS-B) and several days downwind over Greenland (POLARCAT-France and POLARCAT-GRACE). Model results are generally in good agreement with the observations, except for certain trace gas species over boreal fire regions, in some cases indicating that the fire emissions are too low. Anthropogenic and biomass burning pollution (BB) from North America was rapidly uplifted during transport east and north to Greenland where pollution plumes were observed in the mid- and upper troposphere during POLARCAT. A model sensitivity study shows that CO levels are in better agreement with POLARCAT measurements (fresh and aged fire plumes) upon doubling CO emissions from fires. Analysis of model results, using ΔO 3 /ΔCO enhancement ratios, shows that pollution plumes formed ozone during transport towards the Arctic. Fresh anthropogenic plumes have average ΔO 3 /ΔCO enhancement ratios of 0.63 increasing to 0.92 for aged anthropogenic plumes, indicating additional ozone production during aging. Fresh fire plumes are only slightly enhanced in ozone (ΔO 3 /ΔCO=0.08), but form ozone downwind with ΔO 3 /ΔCO of 0.49 for aged BB plumes (model-based run). We estimate that aged anthropogenic and BB pollution together made an important contribution to ozone levels with an average contribution for latitudes 〉55° N of up to 6.5 ppbv (18%) from anthropogenic pollution and 3 ppbv (5.2%) from fire pollution in the model domain in summer 2008.

Description: Validation of an hourly resolved global aerosol model in answer to solar electricity generation information needs Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 3777-3791, 2013 Author(s): M. Schroedter-Homscheidt and A. Oumbe Solar energy applications need global aerosol optical depth (AOD) information to derive historic surface solar irradiance databases from geostationary meteorological satellites reaching back to the 1980's. This paper validates the MATCH/DLR model originating in the climate community against AERONET ground measurements. Hourly or daily mean AOD model output is evaluated individually for all stations in Europe, Africa and the Middle East – an area highly interesting for solar energy applications being partly dominated by high aerosol loads. Overall, a bias of 0.02 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.23 are found for daily mean AOD values, while the RMSE increases to 0.28 for hourly mean AOD values. Large differences between various regions and stations are found providing a feedback loop for the aerosol modelling community. The difference in using daily means versus hourly resolved modelling with respect to hourly resolved observations is evaluated. Nowadays state-of-the-art in solar resource assessment relies on monthly turbidity or AOD climatologies while at least hourly resolved irradiance time series are needed by the solar sector. Therefore, the contribution of higher temporally modelled AOD is evaluated.

Description: Montreal Protocol Benefits simulated with CCM SOCOL Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 3811-3823, 2013 Author(s): T. Egorova, E. Rozanov, J. Gröbner, M. Hauser, and W. Schmutz Ozone depletion is caused by the anthropogenic increase of halogen-containing species in the atmosphere, which results in the enhancement of the concentration of reactive chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere. To reduce the influence of anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances (ODS), the Montreal Protocol was agreed by Governments in 1987, with several Amendments and Adjustments adopted later. In order to assess the benefits of the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments and Adjustments (MPA) on ozone and UV radiation, two different runs of the chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOL have been carried out. The first run was driven by the emission of ozone depleting substances (ODS) prescribed according to the restrictions of the MPA. For the second run we allow the ODS to grow by 3% annually. We find that the MPA would have saved up to 80% of the global annual total ozone by the end of the 21st century. Our calculations also show substantial changes of the stratospheric circulation pattern as well as in surface temperature and precipitations that could occur in the world without MPA implementations. To illustrate the changes in UV radiation at the surface and to emphasise certain features, which can only be seen for some particular regions if the influence of the cloud cover changes is accounted for, we calculate geographical distribution of the erythemally weighted irradiance ( E ery ). For the no Montreal Protocol simulation E ery increases by factor of 4 to 16 between the 1970s and 2100. For the scenario including the Montreal Protocol it is found that UV radiation starts to decrease in 2000, with continuous decline of 5% to 10% at middle latitudes in the both Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

Description: CLARA-SAL: a global 28 yr timeseries of Earth's black-sky surface albedo Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 3743-3762, 2013 Author(s): A. Riihelä, T. Manninen, V. Laine, K. Andersson, and F. Kaspar We present a novel 28 yr dataset of Earth's black-sky surface albedo, derived from AVHRR instruments. The dataset is created using algorithms to separately derive the surface albedo for different land use areas globally. Snow, sea ice, open water and vegetation are all treated independently. The product features corrections for the atmospheric effect in satellite-observed surface radiances, a BRDF correction for the anisotropic reflectance properties of natural surfaces, and a novel topography correction of geolocation and radiometric accuracy of surface reflectance observations over mountainous areas. The dataset is based on a homogenized AVHRR radiance timeseries. The product is validated against quality-controlled in situ observations of clear-sky surface albedo at various BSRN sites around the world. Snow and ice albedo retrieval validation is given particular attention using BSRN sites over Antarctica, Greenland Climate Network stations on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), as well as sea ice albedo data from the SHEBA and Tara expeditions. The product quality is found to be comparable to other previous long-term surface albedo datasets from AVHRR.

Description: Spectral albedo of seasonal snow during intensive melt period at Sodankylä, beyond the Arctic Circle Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 3793-3810, 2013 Author(s): O. Meinander, S. Kazadzis, A. Arola, A. Riihelä, P. Räisänen, R. Kivi, A. Kontu, R. Kouznetsov, M. Sofiev, J. Svensson, H. Suokanerva, V. Aaltonen, T. Manninen, J.-L. Roujean, and O. Hautecoeur We have measured spectral albedo, as well as ancillary parameters, of seasonal European Arctic snow at Sodankylä, Finland (67°22' N, 26°39' E). The springtime intensive melt period was observed during the Snow Reflectance Transition Experiment (SNORTEX) in April 2009. The upwelling and downwelling spectral irradiance, measured at 290–550 nm with a double monochromator spectroradiometer, revealed albedo values of ~0.5–0.7 for the ultraviolet and visible range, both under clear sky and variable cloudiness. During the most intensive snowmelt period of four days, albedo decreased from 0.65 to 0.45 at 330 nm, and from 0.72 to 0.53 at 450 nm. In the literature, the UV and VIS albedo for clean snow are ~0.97–0.99, consistent with the extremely small absorption coefficient of ice in this spectral region. Our low albedo values were supported by two independent simultaneous broadband albedo measurements, and simulated albedo data. We explain the low albedo values to be due to (i) large snow grain sizes up to ~3 mm in diameter; (ii) meltwater surrounding the grains and increasing the effective grain size; (iii) absorption caused by impurities in the snow, with concentration of elemental carbon (black carbon) in snow of 87 ppb, and organic carbon 2894 ppb, at the time of albedo measurements. The high concentrations of carbon, detected by the thermal–optical method, were due to air masses originating from the Kola Peninsula, Russia, where mining and refining industries are located.

Description: Corrigendum to "Calibration of aerodynamic roughness over the Tibetan Plateau with Ensemble Kalman Filter analysed heat flux" published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4291–4302, 2012 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1309-1310, 2013 Author(s): J. H. Lee, J. Timmermans, Z. Su, and M. Mancini No abstract available.

Description: Structural break or long memory: an empirical survey on daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1311-1318, 2013 Author(s): F. Yusof, I. L. Kane, and Z. Yusop A short memory process that encounters occasional structural breaks in mean can show a slower rate of decay in the autocorrelation function and other properties of fractional integrated I (d) processes. In this paper we employed a procedure for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in semiparametric contexts proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983) to analyse nine daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia. The results indicate that all the data sets exhibit long memory. Furthermore, an empirical fluctuation process using the ordinary least square (OLS)-based cumulative sum (CUSUM) test for the break date was applied. Break dates were detected in all data sets. The data sets were partitioned according to their respective break date, and a further test for long memory was applied for all subseries. Results show that all subseries follows the same pattern as the original series. The estimate of the fractional parameters d 1 and d 2 on the subseries obtained by splitting the original series at the break date confirms that there is a long memory in the data generating process (DGP). Therefore this evidence shows a true long memory not due to structural break.

Description: Top-down estimate of surface flux in the Los Angeles Basin using a mesoscale inverse modeling technique: assessing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO x and CO 2 and their impacts Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 3661-3677, 2013 Author(s): J. Brioude, W. M. Angevine, R. Ahmadov, S.-W. Kim, S. Evan, S. A. McKeen, E.-Y. Hsie, G. J. Frost, J. A. Neuman, I. B. Pollack, J. Peischl, T. B. Ryerson, J. Holloway, S. S. Brown, J. B. Nowak, J. M. Roberts, S. C. Wofsy, G. W. Santoni, T. Oda, and M. Trainer We present top-down estimates of anthropogenic CO, NO x and CO 2 surface fluxes at mesoscale using a Lagrangian model in combination with three different WRF model configurations, driven by data from aircraft flights during the CALNEX campaign in southern California in May–June 2010. The US EPA National Emission Inventory 2005 (NEI 2005) was the prior in the CO and NO x inversion calculations. The flux ratio inversion method, based on linear relationships between chemical species, was used to calculate the CO 2 inventory without prior knowledge of CO 2 surface fluxes. The inversion was applied to each flight to estimate the variability of single-flight-based flux estimates. In Los Angeles (LA) County, the uncertainties on CO and NO x fluxes were 10% and 15%, respectively. Compared with NEI 2005, the CO posterior emissions were lower by 43% in LA County and by 37% in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). NO x posterior emissions were lower by 32% in LA County and by 27% in the SoCAB. NO x posterior emissions were 40% lower on weekends relative to weekdays. The CO 2 posterior estimates were 183 Tg yr −1 in SoCAB. A flight during ITCT (Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation) in 2002 was used to estimate emissions in the LA Basin in 2002. From 2002 to 2010, the CO and NO x posterior emissions decreased by 41% and 37%, respectively, in agreement with previous studies. Over the same time period, CO 2 emissions increased by 10% in LA County but decreased by 4% in the SoCAB, a statistically insignificant change. Overall, the posterior estimates were in good agreement with the California Air Resources Board (CARB) inventory, with differences of 15% or less. However, the posterior spatial distribution in the basin was significantly different from CARB for NO x emissions. WRF-Chem mesoscale chemical-transport model simulations allowed an evaluation of differences in chemistry using different inventory assumptions, including NEI 2005, a gridded CARB inventory and the posterior inventories derived in this study. The biases in WRF-Chem ozone were reduced and correlations were increased using the posterior from this study compared with simulations with the two bottom-up inventories, suggesting that improving the spatial distribution of ozone precursor surface emissions is also important in mesoscale chemistry simulations.

Description: Arctic aerosol life cycle: linking aerosol size distributions observed between 2000 and 2010 with air mass transport and precipitation at Zeppelin station, Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 3643-3660, 2013 Author(s): P. Tunved, J. Ström, and R. Krejci In this study we present a qualitative and quantitative assessment of more than 10 yr of aerosol number size distribution data observed in the Arctic environment (Mt. Zeppelin (78°56' N, 11°53' E, 474 m a.s.l.), Ny Ålesund, Svalbard). We provide statistics on both seasonal and diurnal characteristics of the aerosol observations and conclude that the Arctic aerosol number size distribution and related parameters such as integral mass and surface area exhibit a very pronounced seasonal variation. This seasonal variation seems to be controlled by both dominating source as well as meteorological conditions. Three distinctly different periods can be identified during the Arctic year: the haze period characterized by a dominating accumulation mode aerosol (March–May), followed by the sunlit summer period with low abundance of accumulation mode particles but high concentration of small particles which are likely to be recently and locally formed (June–August). The rest of the year is characterized by a comparably low concentration of accumulation mode particles and negligible abundance of ultrafine particles (September–February). A minimum in aerosol mass and number concentration is usually observed during September/October. We further show that the transition between the different regimes is fast, suggesting rapid change in the conditions defining their appearance. A source climatology based on trajectory analysis is provided, and it is shown that there is a strong seasonality of dominating source areas, with Eurasia dominating during the Autumn–Winter period and dominance of North Atlantic air during the summer months. We also show that new-particle formation events are rather common phenomena in the Arctic during summer, and this is the result of photochemical production of nucleating/condensing species in combination with low condensation sink. It is also suggested that wet removal may play a key role in defining the Arctic aerosol year, via the removal of accumulation mode size particles, which in turn have a pivotal role in facilitating the conditions favorable for new-particle formation events. In summary the aerosol Arctic year seems to be at least qualitatively predictable based on the knowledge of seasonality of transport paths and associated source areas, meteorological conditions and removal processes.

Description: Assessment of the interannual variability and influence of the QBO and upwelling on tracer–tracer distributions of N 2 O and O 3 in the tropical lower stratosphere Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 3619-3641, 2013 Author(s): F. Khosrawi, R. Müller, J. Urban, M. H. Proffitt, G. Stiller, M. Kiefer, S. Lossow, D. Kinnison, F. Olschewski, M. Riese, and D. Murtagh A modified form of tracer–tracer correlations of N 2 O and O 3 has been used as a tool for the evaluation of atmospheric photochemical models. Applying this method, monthly averages of N 2 O and O 3 are derived for both hemispheres by partitioning the data into altitude (or potential temperature) bins and then averaging over a fixed interval of N 2 O. In a previous study, the method has been successfully applied to the evaluation of two chemical transport models (CTMs) and one chemistry–climate model (CCM) using a 1 yr climatology derived from the Odin Sub-Millimetre Radiometer (Odin/SMR). However, the applicability of a 1 yr climatology of monthly averages of N 2 O and O 3 has been questioned due to the inability of some CCMs to simulate a specific year for the evaluation of CCMs. In this study, satellite measurements from Odin/SMR, the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS), the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding on ENVISAT (ENVISAT/MIPAS), and the Cryogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescopes for the Atmosphere (CRISTA-1 and CRISTA-2) as well as model simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) are considered. By using seven to eight years of satellite measurements derived between 2003 and 2010 from Odin/SMR, Aura/MLS, ENVISAT/MIPAS and six years of model simulations from WACCM, the interannual variability of lower stratospheric monthly averages of N 2 O and O 3 is assessed. It is shown that the interannual variability of the monthly averages of N 2 O and O 3 is low, and thus can be easily distinguished from model deficiencies. Furthermore, it is investigated why large differences are found between Odin/SMR observations and model simulations from the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA) and the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5/Messy1 for the Northern and Southern Hemisphere tropics (0° to 30° N and 0° to −30° S, respectively). The differences between model simulations and observations are most likely caused by an underestimation of the quasi-biennial oscillation and tropical upwelling by the models as well as due to biases and/or instrument noise from the satellite instruments. A realistic consideration of the QBO in the model reduces the differences between model simulation and observations significantly. Finally, an intercomparison between Odin/SMR, Aura/MLS, ENVISAT/MIPAS and WACCM was performed. The comparison shows that these data sets are generally in good agreement, although some known biases of the data sets are clearly visible in the monthly averages. Nevertheless, the differences caused by the uncertainties of the satellite data sets are sufficiently small and can be clearly distinguished from model deficiencies. Thus, the method applied in this study is not only a valuable tool for model evaluation, but also for satellite data intercomparisons.

Description: Snow glacier melt estimation in tropical Andean glaciers using artificial neural networks Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1265-1280, 2013 Author(s): V. Moya Quiroga, A. Mano, Y. Asaoka, S. Kure, K. Udo, and J. Mendoza Snow and glacier melt (SGM) estimation plays an important role in water resources management. Although melting process can be modelled by energy balance methods, such studies require detailed data, which is rarely available. Hence, new and simpler approaches are needed for SGM estimations. The present study aims at developing an artificial neural networks (ANN) based technique for estimating the energy available for melt (EAM) and SGM rates using available and easy to obtain data such as temperature, short-wave radiation and relative humidity. Several ANN and multiple linear regression models (MLR) were developed to represent the energy fluxes and estimate the EAM. The models were trained using measured data from the Zongo glacier located in the outer tropics and validated against measured data from the Antizana glacier located in the inner tropics. It was found that ANN models provide a better generalisation when applied to other data sets. The performance of the models was improved by including Antizana data into the training set, as it was proved to provide better results than other techniques like the use of a prior logarithmic transformation. The final model was validated against measured data from the Alpine glaciers Argentière and Saint-Sorlin. Then, the models were applied for the estimation of SGM at Condoriri glacier. The estimated SGM was compared with SGM estimated by an enhanced temperature method and proved to have the same behaviour considering temperature sensibility. Moreover, the ANN models have the advantage of direct application, while the temperature method requires calibration of empirical coefficients.

Description: Assessment of shallow subsurface characterisation with non-invasive geophysical methods at the intermediate hill-slope scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1297-1307, 2013 Author(s): S. Popp, D. Altdorff, and P. Dietrich Hill-slopes of several hectares in size represent a difficult scale for subsurface characterisation, as these landscape units are well beyond the scope of traditional point-scale techniques. By means of electromagnetic induction (EMI) and gamma-ray spectroscopy, spatially distributed soil proxy data were collected from a heterogeneous hill-slope site. Results of EMI mapping using the EM38DD showed that soil electrical conductivity (ECa) is highly variable at both temporal and spatial scales. Calibration of the integral ECa signal to a specific target like soil moisture is hampered by the ambiguous response of EMI to the clay-rich hill-slope underground. Gamma-ray results were obtained during a single survey, along with EMI measurements and selected soil sampling. In contrast to ECa, a noticeable correlation between Total Count and K emission data and soil-water content seemed to be present. Relevant proxy variables from both methods were used for k means clustering in order to distinguish between hill-slope areas with different soil conditions. As a result, we obtained a suitable partition of hill-slope that was comparable with a previously obtained zonation model based on ecological factors.

Description: Multivariate return periods in hydrology: a critical and practical review focusing on synthetic design hydrograph estimation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1281-1296, 2013 Author(s): B. Gräler, M. J. van den Berg, S. Vandenberghe, A. Petroselli, S. Grimaldi, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest Most of the hydrological and hydraulic studies refer to the notion of a return period to quantify design variables. When dealing with multiple design variables, the well-known univariate statistical analysis is no longer satisfactory, and several issues challenge the practitioner. How should one incorporate the dependence between variables? How should a multivariate return period be defined and applied in order to yield a proper design event? In this study an overview of the state of the art for estimating multivariate design events is given and the different approaches are compared. The construction of multivariate distribution functions is done through the use of copulas, given their practicality in multivariate frequency analyses and their ability to model numerous types of dependence structures in a flexible way. A synthetic case study is used to generate a large data set of simulated discharges that is used for illustrating the effect of different modelling choices on the design events. Based on different uni- and multivariate approaches, the design hydrograph characteristics of a 3-D phenomenon composed of annual maximum peak discharge, its volume, and duration are derived. These approaches are based on regression analysis, bivariate conditional distributions, bivariate joint distributions and Kendall distribution functions, highlighting theoretical and practical issues of multivariate frequency analysis. Also an ensemble-based approach is presented. For a given design return period, the approach chosen clearly affects the calculated design event, and much attention should be given to the choice of the approach used as this depends on the real-world problem at hand.

Description: Corrigendum to "Quantifying the uncertainty in simulating global tropospheric composition due to the variability in global emission estimates of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds" published in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2857–2891, 2013 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 3693-3694, 2013 Author(s): J. E. Williams, P. F. J. van Velthoven, and C. A. M. Brenninkmeijer No abstract available.

Description: Formation and occurrence of dimer esters of pinene oxidation products in atmospheric aerosols Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 3763-3776, 2013 Author(s): K. Kristensen, K. L. Enggrob, S. M. King, D. R. Worton, S. M. Platt, R. Mortensen, T. Rosenoern, J. D. Surratt, M. Bilde, A. H. Goldstein, and M. Glasius The formation of carboxylic acids and dimer esters from α-pinene oxidation was investigated in a smog chamber and in ambient aerosol samples collected during the Biosphere Effects on Aerosols and Photochemistry Experiment (BEARPEX). Chamber experiments of α-pinene ozonolysis in dry air and at low NO x concentrations demonstrated formation of two dimer esters, pinyl-diaterpenyl (MW 358) and pinonyl-pinyl dimer ester (MW 368), under both low- and high-temperature conditions. Concentration levels of the pinyl-diaterpenyl dimer ester were lower than the assumed first-generation oxidation products cis -pinic and terpenylic acids, but similar to the second-generation oxidation products 3-methyl-1,2,3-butane tricarboxylic acid (MBTCA) and diaterpenylic acid acetate (DTAA). Dimer esters were observed within the first 30 min, indicating rapid production simultaneous to their structural precursors. However, the sampling time resolution precluded conclusive evidence regarding formation from gas- or particle-phase processes. CCN activities of the particles formed in the smog chamber displayed a modest variation during the course of experiments, with κ values in the range 0.06–0.09 (derived at a supersaturation of 0.19%). The pinyl-diaterpenyl dimer ester was also observed in ambient aerosol samples collected above a ponderosa pine forest in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California during two seasonally distinct field campaigns in September 2007 and July 2009. The pinonyl-pinyl ester was observed for the first time in ambient air during the 2009 campaign, and although present at much lower concentrations, it was correlated with the abundance of the pinyl-diaterpenyl ester, suggesting similarities in their formation. The maximum concentration of the pinyl-diaterpenyl ester was almost 10 times higher during the warmer 2009 campaign relative to 2007, while the concentration of cis -pinic acid was approximately the same during both periods, and lack of correlation with levels of cis -pinic and terpenylic acids for both campaigns indicate that the formation of the pinyl-diaterpenyl ester was not controlled by their ambient abundance. In 2009 the concentration of the pinyl-diaterpenyl ester was well correlated with the concentration of DTAA, a supposed precursor of diaterpenylic acid, suggesting that the formation of pinyl-diaterpenyl dimer was closely related to DTAA. Generally, the pinyl-diaterpenyl ester was found at higher concentrations under higher temperature conditions, both in the smog-chamber study and in ambient air aerosol samples, and exhibited much higher concentrations at night relative to daytime in line with previous results. We conclude that analysis of pinyl dimer esters provides valuable information on pinene oxidation processes and should be included in studies of formation and photochemical aging of biogenic secondary organic aerosols, especially at high temperatures.

Description: Derivation of RCM-driven potential evapotranspiration for hydrological climate change impact analysis in Great Britain: a comparison of methods and associated uncertainty in future projections Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1365-1377, 2013 Author(s): C. Prudhomme and J. Williamson Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is the water that would be lost by plants through evaporation and transpiration if water was not limited in the soil, and it is commonly used in conceptual hydrological modelling in the calculation of runoff production and hence river discharge. Future changes of PET are likely to be as important as changes in precipitation patterns in determining changes in river flows. However PET is not calculated routinely by climate models so it must be derived independently when the impact of climate change on river flow is to be assessed. This paper compares PET estimates from 12 equations of different complexity, driven by the Hadley Centre's HadRM3-Q0 model outputs representative of 1961–1990, with MORECS PET, a product used as reference PET in Great Britain. The results show that the FAO56 version of the Penman–Monteith equations reproduces best the spatial and seasonal variability of MORECS PET across GB when driven by HadRM3-Q0 estimates of relative humidity, total cloud, wind speed and linearly bias-corrected mean surface temperature. This suggests that potential biases in HadRM3-Q0 climate do not result in significant biases when the physically based FAO56 equations are used. Percentage changes in PET between the 1961–1990 and 2041–2070 time slices were also calculated for each of the 12 PET equations from HadRM3-Q0. Results show a large variation in the magnitude (and sometimes direction) of changes estimated from different PET equations, with Turc, Jensen–Haise and calibrated Blaney–Criddle methods systematically projecting the largest increases across GB for all months and Priestley–Taylor, Makkink, and Thornthwaite showing the smallest changes. We recommend the use of the FAO56 equation as, when driven by HadRM3-Q0 climate data, this best reproduces the reference MORECS PET across Great Britain for the reference period of 1961–1990. Further, the future changes of PET estimated by FAO56 are within the range of uncertainty defined by the ensemble of 12 PET equations. The changes show a clear northwest–southeast gradient of PET increase with largest (smallest) changes in the northwest in January (July and October) respectively. However, the range in magnitude of PET changes due to the choice of PET method shown in this study for Great Britain suggests that PET uncertainty is a challenge facing the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology mostly ignored up to now.

Description: Aerosol extinction-to-backscatter ratio derived from passive satellite measurements Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 8947-8954, 2013 Author(s): F.-M. Bréon Spaceborne reflectance measurements from the POLDER instrument are used to study the specific directional signature close to the backscatter direction. The data analysis makes it possible to derive the extinction-to-backscatter ratio (EBR), which is related to the inverse of the scattering phase function for an angle of 180° and is needed for a quantitative interpretation of lidar observations (active measurements). In addition, the multidirectional measurements are used to quantify the scattering phase function variations close to backscatter, which also provide some indication of the aerosol particle size and shape. The spatial distributions of both parameters show consistent patterns that are consistent with the aerosol type distributions. Pollution aerosols have an EBR close to 70, desert dust values are on the order of 50 and EBR of marine aerosols is close to 25. The scattering phase function shows an increase with the scattering angle close to backscatter. The relative increase ∂ln P /∂γ is close to 0.01 for dust and pollution type aerosols and 0.06 for marine type aerosols. These values are consistent with those retrieved from Mie simulations.

Description: Formulation and test of an ice aggregation scheme for two-moment bulk microphysics schemes Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9021-9037, 2013 Author(s): E. Kienast-Sjögren, P. Spichtinger, and K. Gierens A simple formulation of aggregation for two-moment bulk microphysical models is derived. The solution involves the evaluation of a double integral of the collection kernel weighted with the crystal size (or mass) distribution. This quantity is to be inserted into the differential equation for the crystal number concentration which has classical Smoluchowski form. The double integrals are evaluated numerically for log-normal size distributions over a large range of geometric mean masses. A polynomial fit of the results is given that yields good accuracy. Various tests of the new parameterisation are described: aggregation as stand-alone process, in a box-model, and in 2-D simulations of a cirrostratus cloud. These tests suggest that aggregation can become important for warm cirrus, leading even to higher and longer-lasting in-cloud supersaturation. Cold cirrus clouds are hardly affected by aggregation. The collection efficiency is taken from a parameterisation that assumes a dependence on temperature, a situation that might be improved when reliable measurements from cloud chambers suggests the necessary constraints for the choice of this parameter.

Description: Measuring and modeling the hygroscopic growth of two humic substances in mixed aerosol particles of atmospheric relevance Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 8973-8989, 2013 Author(s): I. R. Zamora and M. Z. Jacobson The hygroscopic growth of atmospheric particles affects atmospheric chemistry and Earth's climate. Water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) constitutes a significant fraction of the dry submicron mass of atmospheric aerosols, thus affecting their water uptake properties. Although the WSOC fraction is comprised of many compounds, a set of model substances can be used to describe its behavior. For this study, mixtures of Nordic aquatic fulvic acid reference (NAFA) and Fluka humic acid (HA), with various combinations of inorganic salts (sodium chloride and ammonium sulfate) and other representative organic compounds (levoglucosan and succinic acid), were studied. We measured the equilibrium water vapor pressure over bulk solutions of these mixtures as a function of temperature and solute concentration. New water activity ( a w ) parameterizations and hygroscopic growth curves at 25 °C were calculated from these data for particles of equivalent composition. We examined the effect of temperature on the water activity and found a maximum variation of 9% in the 0–30 °C range, and 2% in the 20–30 °C range. Five two-component mixtures were studied to understand the effect of adding a humic substance (HS), such as NAFA and HA, to an inorganic salt or a saccharide. The deliquescence point at 25 °C for HS-inorganic mixtures did not change significantly from that of the pure inorganic species. However, the hygroscopic growth of HA / inorganic mixtures was lower than that exhibited by the pure salt, in proportion to the added mass of HA. The addition of NAFA to a highly soluble solute (ammonium sulfate, sodium chloride or levoglucosan) in water had the same effect as the addition of HA to the inorganic species for most of the water activity range studied. Yet, the water uptake of these NAFA mixtures transitioned to match the growth of the pure salt or saccharide at high a w values. The remaining four mixtures were based on chemical composition data for different aerosol types. As expected, the two solutions representing organic aerosols (40% HS/40% succinic acid/20% levoglucosan) showed lower water uptake than the two solutions representing biomass burning aerosols (25% HS/27% succinic acid/18% levoglucosan/30% ammonium sulfate). However, interactions in multicomponent solutions may be responsible for the large variation of the relative water uptake of identical mixtures containing different HSs above a water activity of 0.95. The ZSR (Zdanovskii, Stokes, and Robinson) model was able to predict reasonably well the hygroscopic growth of all the mixtures below a w = 0.95, but produced large deviations for some multicomponent mixtures at higher values.

Description: Presenting SAPUSS: Solving Aerosol Problem by Using Synergistic Strategies in Barcelona, Spain Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 8991-9019, 2013 Author(s): M. Dall'Osto, X. Querol, A. Alastuey, M. C. Minguillon, M. Alier, F. Amato, M. Brines, M. Cusack, J. O. Grimalt, A. Karanasiou, T. Moreno, M. Pandolfi, J. Pey, C. Reche, A. Ripoll, R. Tauler, B. L. Van Drooge, M. Viana, R. M. Harrison, J. Gietl, D. Beddows, W. Bloss, C. O'Dowd, D. Ceburnis, G. Martucci, N. L. Ng, D. Worsnop, J. Wenger, E. Mc Gillicuddy, J. Sodeau, R. Healy, F. Lucarelli, S. Nava, J. L. Jimenez, F. Gomez Moreno, B. Artinano, A. S. H. Prévôt, L. Pfaffenberger, S. Frey, F. Wilsenack, D. Casabona, P. Jiménez-Guerrero, D. Gross, and N. Cots This paper presents the summary of the key objectives, instrumentation and logistic details, goals, and initial scientific findings of the European Marie Curie Action SAPUSS project carried out in the western Mediterranean Basin (WMB) during September–October in autumn 2010. The key SAPUSS objective is to deduce aerosol source characteristics and to understand the atmospheric processes responsible for their generations and transformations – both horizontally and vertically in the Mediterranean urban environment. In order to achieve so, the unique approach of SAPUSS is the concurrent measurements of aerosols with multiple techniques occurring simultaneously in six monitoring sites around the city of Barcelona (NE Spain): a main road traffic site, two urban background sites, a regional background site and two urban tower sites (150 m and 545 m above sea level, 150 m and 80 m above ground, respectively). SAPUSS allows us to advance our knowledge sensibly of the atmospheric chemistry and physics of the urban Mediterranean environment. This is well achieved only because of both the three dimensional spatial scale and the high sampling time resolution used. During SAPUSS different meteorological regimes were encountered, including warm Saharan, cold Atlantic, wet European and stagnant regional ones. The different meteorology of such regimes is herein described. Additionally, we report the trends of the parameters regulated by air quality purposes (both gaseous and aerosol mass concentrations); and we also compare the six monitoring sites. High levels of traffic-related gaseous pollutants were measured at the urban ground level monitoring sites, whereas layers of tropospheric ozone were recorded at tower levels. Particularly, tower level night-time average ozone concentrations (80 ± 25 μg m −3 ) were up to double compared to ground level ones. The examination of the vertical profiles clearly shows the predominant influence of NO x on ozone concentrations, and a source of ozone aloft. Analysis of the particulate matter (PM) mass concentrations shows an enhancement of coarse particles (PM 2.5–10 ) at the urban ground level (+64%, average 11.7 μg m −3 ) but of fine ones (PM 1 ) at urban tower level (+28%, average 14.4 μg m −3 ). These results show complex dynamics of the size-resolved PM mass at both horizontal and vertical levels of the study area. Preliminary modelling findings reveal an underestimation of the fine accumulation aerosols. In summary, this paper lays the foundation of SAPUSS, an integrated study of relevance to many other similar urban Mediterranean coastal environment sites.

Description: Ozone photochemistry in an oil and natural gas extraction region during winter: simulations of a snow-free season in the Uintah Basin, Utah Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 8955-8971, 2013 Author(s): P. M. Edwards, C. J. Young, K. Aikin, J. deGouw, W. P. Dubé, F. Geiger, J. Gilman, D. Helmig, J. S. Holloway, J. Kercher, B. Lerner, R. Martin, R. McLaren, D. D. Parrish, J. Peischl, J. M. Roberts, T. B. Ryerson, J. Thornton, C. Warneke, E. J. Williams, and S. S. Brown The Uintah Basin in northeastern Utah, a region of intense oil and gas extraction, experienced ozone (O 3 ) concentrations above levels harmful to human health for multiple days during the winters of 2009–2010 and 2010–2011. These wintertime O 3 pollution episodes occur during cold, stable periods when the ground is snow-covered, and have been linked to emissions from the oil and gas extraction process. The Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Study (UBWOS) was a field intensive in early 2012, whose goal was to address current uncertainties in the chemical and physical processes that drive wintertime O 3 production in regions of oil and gas development. Although elevated O 3 concentrations were not observed during the winter of 2011–2012, the comprehensive set of observations tests our understanding of O 3 photochemistry in this unusual emissions environment. A box model, constrained to the observations and using the near-explicit Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) v3.2 chemistry scheme, has been used to investigate the sensitivities of O 3 production during UBWOS 2012. Simulations identify the O 3 production photochemistry to be highly radical limited (with a radical production rate significantly smaller than the NO x emission rate). Production of OH from O 3 photolysis (through reaction of O( 1 D) with water vapor) contributed only 170 pptv day −1 , 8% of the total primary radical source on average (primary radicals being those produced from non-radical precursors). Other radical sources, including the photolysis of formaldehyde (HCHO, 52%), nitrous acid (HONO, 26%), and nitryl chloride (ClNO 2 , 13%) were larger. O 3 production was also found to be highly sensitive to aromatic volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations, due to radical amplification reactions in the oxidation scheme of these species. Radical production was shown to be small in comparison to the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ), such that NO x acted as the primary radical sink. Consequently, the system was highly VOC sensitive, despite the much larger mixing ratio of total non-methane hydrocarbons (230 ppbv (2080 ppbC), 6 week average) relative to NO x (5.6 ppbv average). However, the importance of radical sources which are themselves derived from NO x emissions and chemistry, such as ClNO 2 and HONO, make the response of the system to changes in NO x emissions uncertain. Model simulations attempting to reproduce conditions expected during snow-covered cold-pool conditions show a significant increase in O 3 production, although calculated concentrations do not achieve the highest seen during the 2010–2011 O 3 pollution events in the Uintah Basin. These box model simulations provide useful insight into the chemistry controlling winter O 3 production in regions of oil and gas extraction.

Description: Present and future nitrogen deposition to national parks in the United States: critical load exceedances Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9083-9095, 2013 Author(s): R. A. Ellis, D. J. Jacob, M. P. Sulprizio, L. Zhang, C. D. Holmes, B. A. Schichtel, T. Blett, E. Porter, L. H. Pardo, and J. A. Lynch National parks in the United States are protected areas wherein the natural habitat is to be conserved for future generations. Deposition of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) transported from areas of human activity (fuel combustion, agriculture) may affect these natural habitats if it exceeds an ecosystem-dependent critical load (CL). We quantify and interpret the deposition to Class I US national parks for present-day and future (2050) conditions using the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model with 1/2° × 2/3° horizontal resolution over North America. We estimate CL values in the range 2.5–5 kg N ha −1 yr −1 for the different parks to protect the most sensitive ecosystem receptors. For present-day conditions, we find 24 out of 45 parks to be in CL exceedance and 14 more to be marginally so. Many of these are in remote areas of the West. Most (40–85%) of the deposition originates from NO x emissions (fuel combustion). We project future changes in N deposition using representative concentration pathway (RCP) anthropogenic emission scenarios for 2050. These feature 52–73% declines in US NO x emissions relative to present but 19–50% increases in US ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions. Nitrogen deposition at US national parks then becomes dominated by domestic NH 3 emissions. While deposition decreases in the East relative to present, there is little progress in the West and increases in some regions. We find that 17–25 US national parks will have CL exceedances in 2050 based on the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. Even in total absence of anthropogenic NO x emissions, 14–18 parks would still have a CL exceedance. Returning all parks to N deposition below CL by 2050 would require at least a 50% decrease in US anthropogenic NH 3 emissions relative to RCP-projected 2050 levels.

Description: Impact of long-term drainage on summer groundwater flow patterns in the Mer Bleue peatland, Ontario, Canada Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3485-3498, 2013 Author(s): B. J. Kopp, J. H. Fleckenstein, N. T. Roulet, E. Humphreys, J. Talbot, and C. Blodau Long-term impacts of drier conditions on the hydrology of northern peatlands are poorly understood. We used long-term drainage near a historic drainage ditch, separating an area from the main peatland, as an analogue for long-term drying in a northern temperate bog. The objective was to identify the impact of drier conditions on ecohydrological processes and groundwater flow patterns in an area now forested and an area that maintained a bog-like character. Groundwater flow patterns alternated between mostly downward flow and occasionally upward flow in the bog area and were mostly upward-orientated in the forested area, which suggested that there the flow pattern had shifted from bog- to fen-like conditions. Flow patterns were in agreement with changes in post-drainage hydraulic conductivities, storage capacity of the peat and water table levels. Compared to the bog, hydraulic conductivities in the forested area were one to three orders of magnitude lower in the uppermost 0.75 m of peat (paired t test, p 〈 0.05). Bulk density had increased and the water table level was lower and more strongly fluctuating in the forested area. Our findings suggest hydraulic gradients and flow patterns have changed due to increased evapotranspiration and interception with the emergence of a tree cover. The smaller size of the now-forested area relative to the remaining bog area appeared to be important for the hydrological change. With the main Mer Bleue bog as hinterland, enhanced runoff to the drainage channel had little effect on hydrologic and vegetation patterns. In the cut-off, smaller, now forested area pervasive changes in vegetation and hydrologic processes occurred. The difference in response to local drainage raises questions about tipping points with respect to the impact of drying on peatland ecosystems that need to be addressed in future research.

Description: Potential and limitations of multidecadal satellite soil moisture observations for selected climate model evaluation studies Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3523-3542, 2013 Author(s): A. Loew, T. Stacke, W. Dorigo, R. de Jeu, and S. Hagemann Soil moisture is an essential climate variable (ECV) of major importance for land–atmosphere interactions and global hydrology. An appropriate representation of soil moisture dynamics in global climate models is therefore important. Recently, a first multidecadal, observation-based soil moisture dataset has become available that provides information on soil moisture dynamics from satellite observations (ECVSM, essential climate variable soil moisture). The present study investigates the potential and limitations of this new dataset for several applications in climate model evaluation. We compare soil moisture data from satellite observations, reanalysis and simulations from a state-of-the-art land surface model and analyze relationships between soil moisture and precipitation anomalies in the different dataset. Other potential applications like model parameter optimization or model initialization are not investigated in the present study. In a detailed regional study, we show that ECVSM is capable to capture well the interannual and intraannual soil moisture and precipitation dynamics in the Sahelian region. Current deficits of the new dataset are critically discussed and summarized at the end of the paper to provide guidance for an appropriate usage of the ECVSM dataset for climate studies.

Description: Simultaneous estimation of model state variables and observation and forecast biases using a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3499-3521, 2013 Author(s): V. R. N. Pauwels, G. J. M. De Lannoy, H.-J. Hendricks Franssen, and H. Vereecken In this paper, we present a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter to estimate both observation and forecast bias in hydrologic models, in addition to state variables. The biases are estimated using the discrete Kalman filter, and the state variables using the ensemble Kalman filter. A key issue in this multi-component assimilation scheme is the exact partitioning of the difference between observation and forecasts into state, forecast bias and observation bias updates. Here, the error covariances of the forecast bias and the unbiased states are calculated as constant fractions of the biased state error covariance, and the observation bias error covariance is a function of the observation prediction error covariance. In a series of synthetic experiments, focusing on the assimilation of discharge into a rainfall-runoff model, it is shown that both static and dynamic observation and forecast biases can be successfully estimated. The results indicate a strong improvement in the estimation of the state variables and resulting discharge as opposed to the use of a bias-unaware ensemble Kalman filter. Furthermore, minimal code modification in existing data assimilation software is needed to implement the method. The results suggest that a better performance of data assimilation methods should be possible if both forecast and observation biases are taken into account.

Description: Corrigendum to "Thermodynamics of reactions of ClHg and BrHg radicals with atmospherically abundant free radicals" published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12, 10271–10279, 2012 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9211-9212, 2013 Author(s): T. S. Dibble, M. J. Zelie, and H. Mao No abstract available.

Description: Atmospheric processing of iron carried by mineral dust Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9169-9181, 2013 Author(s): S. Nickovic, A. Vukovic, and M. Vujadinovic Nutrification of the open ocean originates mainly from deposited aerosol in which the bio-avaliable iron is likely to be an important factor. The relatively insoluble iron in dust from arid soils becomes more soluble after atmospheric processing and, through its deposition in the ocean, could contribute to marine primary production. To numerically simulate the atmospheric route of iron from desert sources to sinks in the ocean, we developed a regional atmospheric dust-iron model that included parameterization of the transformation of iron to a soluble form caused by dust mineralogy, cloud processes and solar radiation. When compared with field data on the aerosol iron, which were collected during several Atlantic cruises, the results from the higher-resolution simulation experiments showed that the model was capable of reproducing the major observed patterns.

Description: Secondary organic aerosol formation from gasoline vehicle emissions in a new mobile environmental reaction chamber Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9141-9158, 2013 Author(s): S. M. Platt, I. El Haddad, A. A. Zardini, M. Clairotte, C. Astorga, R. Wolf, J. G. Slowik, B. Temime-Roussel, N. Marchand, I. Ježek, L. Drinovec, G. Močnik, O. Möhler, R. Richter, P. Barmet, F. Bianchi, U. Baltensperger, and A. S. H. Prévôt We present a new mobile environmental reaction chamber for the simulation of the atmospheric aging of different emission sources without limitation from the instruments or facilities available at any single site. Photochemistry is simulated using a set of 40 UV lights (total power 4 KW). Characterisation of the emission spectrum of these lights shows that atmospheric aging of emissions may be simulated over a range of temperatures (−7 to 25 °C). A photolysis rate of NO 2 , J NO 2 , of (8.0 ± 0.7) × 10 −3 s −1 was determined at 25 °C. We demonstrate the utility of this new system by presenting results on the aging (OH = 12 × 10 6 cm −3 h) of emissions from a modern (Euro 5) gasoline car operated during a driving cycle (New European Driving Cycle, NEDC) on a chassis dynamometer in a vehicle test cell. Emissions from the entire NEDC were sampled and aged in the chamber. Total organic aerosol (OA; primary organic aerosol (POA) emission + secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation) was (369.8–397.5)10 −3 g kg −1 fuel, or (13.2–15.4) × 10 −3 g km −1 , after aging, with aged OA/POA in the range 9–15. A thorough investigation of the composition of the gas phase emissions suggests that the observed SOA is from previously unconsidered precursors and processes. This large enhancement in particulate matter mass from gasoline vehicle aerosol emissions due to SOA formation, if it occurs across a wider range of gasoline vehicles, would have significant implications for our understanding of the contribution of on-road gasoline vehicles to ambient aerosols.

Description: Aerosol loading in the Southeastern United States: reconciling surface and satellite observations Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9269-9283, 2013 Author(s): B. Ford and C. L. Heald We investigate the seasonality in aerosols over the Southeastern United States using observations from several satellite instruments (MODIS, MISR, CALIOP) and surface network sites (IMPROVE, SEARCH, AERONET). We find that the strong summertime enhancement in satellite-observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) (factor 2–3 enhancement over wintertime AOD) is not present in surface mass concentrations (25–55% summertime enhancement). Goldstein et al. (2009) previously attributed this seasonality in AOD to biogenic organic aerosol; however, surface observations show that organic aerosol only accounts for ∼35% of fine particulate matter (smaller than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter, PM 2.5 ) and exhibits similar seasonality to total surface PM 2.5 . The GEOS-Chem model generally reproduces these surface aerosol measurements, but underrepresents the AOD seasonality observed by satellites. We show that seasonal differences in water uptake cannot sufficiently explain the magnitude of AOD increase. As CALIOP profiles indicate the presence of additional aerosol in the lower troposphere (below 700 hPa), which cannot be explained by vertical mixing, we conclude that the discrepancy is due to a missing source of aerosols above the surface layer in summer.

Description: Reconciliation of essential process parameters for an enhanced predictability of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss and its climate interactions (RECONCILE): activities and results Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9233-9268, 2013 Author(s): M. von Hobe, S. Bekki, S. Borrmann, F. Cairo, F. D'Amato, G. Di Donfrancesco, A. Dörnbrack, A. Ebersoldt, M. Ebert, C. Emde, I. Engel, M. Ern, W. Frey, S. Genco, S. Griessbach, J.-U. Grooß, T. Gulde, G. Günther, E. Hösen, L. Hoffmann, V. Homonnai, C. R. Hoyle, I. S. A. Isaksen, D. R. Jackson, I. M. Jánosi, R. L. Jones, K. Kandler, C. Kalicinsky, A. Keil, S. M. Khaykin, F. Khosrawi, R. Kivi, J. Kuttippurath, J. C. Laube, F. Lefèvre, R. Lehmann, S. Ludmann, B. P. Luo, M. Marchand, J. Meyer, V. Mitev, S. Molleker, R. Müller, H. Oelhaf, F. Olschewski, Y. Orsolini, T. Peter, K. Pfeilsticker, C. Piesch, M. C. Pitts, L. R. Poole, F. D. Pope, F. Ravegnani, M. Rex, M. Riese, T. Röckmann, B. Rognerud, A. Roiger, C. Rolf, M. L. Santee, M. Scheibe, C. Schiller, H. Schlager, M. Siciliani de Cumis, N. Sitnikov, O. A. Søvde, R. Spang, N. Spelten, F. Stordal, O. Sumińska-Ebersoldt, A. Ulanovski, J. Ungermann, S. Viciani, C. M. Volk, M. vom Scheidt, P. von der Gathen, K. Walker, T. Wegner, R. Weigel, S. Weinbruch, G. Wetzel, F. G. Wienhold, I. Wohltmann, W. Woiwode, I. A. K. Young, V. Yushkov, B. Zobrist, and F. Stroh The international research project RECONCILE has addressed central questions regarding polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify some of the most relevant yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes and thereby improve prognostic modelling capabilities to realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to climate change. This overview paper outlines the scope and the general approach of RECONCILE, and it provides a summary of observations and modelling in 2010 and 2011 that have generated an in many respects unprecedented dataset to study processes in the Arctic winter stratosphere. Principally, it summarises important outcomes of RECONCILE including (i) better constraints and enhanced consistency on the set of parameters governing catalytic ozone destruction cycles, (ii) a better understanding of the role of cold binary aerosols in heterogeneous chlorine activation, (iii) an improved scheme of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) processes that includes heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and ice on non-volatile background aerosol leading to better model parameterisations with respect to denitrification, and (iv) long transient simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) updated based on the results of RECONCILE that better reproduce past ozone trends in Antarctica and are deemed to produce more reliable predictions of future ozone trends. The process studies and the global simulations conducted in RECONCILE show that in the Arctic, ozone depletion uncertainties in the chemical and microphysical processes are now clearly smaller than the sensitivity to dynamic variability.

Description: A global model study of the impact of land-use change in Borneo on atmospheric composition Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9183-9194, 2013 Author(s): N. J. Warwick, A. T. Archibald, K. Ashworth, J. Dorsey, P. M. Edwards, D. E. Heard, B. Langford, J. Lee, P. K. Misztal, L. K. Whalley, and J. A. Pyle In this study, a high resolution version of the Cambridge p-TOMCAT chemical transport model is used, along with measurement data from the 2008 NERC-funded Oxidant and Particle Photochemical Processes (OP3) project, to examine the potential impact of the expansion of oil palm in Borneo on atmospheric composition. Several model emission scenarios are run for the OP3 measurement period, incorporating emissions from both global datasets and local flux measurements. Using the OP3 observed isoprene fluxes and OH recycling chemistry in p-TOMCAT substantially improves the comparison between modelled and observed isoprene and OH concentrations relative to using MEGAN isoprene emissions without OH recycling. However, a similar improvement was also achieved without using HO x recycling, by fixing boundary layer isoprene concentrations over Borneo to follow the OP3 observations. An extreme hypothetical future scenario, in which all of Borneo is converted to oil palm plantation, assessed the sensitivity of the model to changes in isoprene and NO x emissions associated with land-use change. This scenario suggested a 70% upper limit on surface ozone increases resulting from land-use change on Borneo, excluding the impact of future changes in emissions elsewhere. Although the largest changes in this scenario occurred directly over Borneo, the model also calculated notable regional changes of O 3 , OH and other species downwind of Borneo and in the free troposphere.

Description: Land use change effects on runoff generation in a humid tropical montane cloud forest region Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3543-3560, 2013 Author(s): L. E. Muñoz-Villers and J. J. McDonnell While tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) provide critical hydrological services to downstream regions throughout much of the humid tropics, catchment hydrology and impacts associated with forest conversion in these ecosystems remain poorly understood. Here, we compare the annual, seasonal and event-scale streamflow patterns and runoff generation processes of three neighbouring headwater catchments in central Veracruz (eastern Mexico) with similar pedological and geological characteristics, but different land cover: old-growth TMCF, 20 yr-old naturally regenerating TMCF and a heavily grazed pasture. We used a 2 yr record of high resolution rainfall and stream flow data (2008–2010) in combination with stable isotope and chemical tracer data collected for a series of storms during a 6-week period of increasing antecedent wetness (wetting-up cycle). Our results showed that annual and seasonal streamflow patterns in the mature and secondary forest were similar. In contrast, the pasture showed a 10% higher mean annual streamflow, most likely because of a lower rainfall interception. During the wetting-up cycle, storm runoff ratios increased at all three catchments (from 11 to 54% for the mature forest, 7 to 52% for the secondary forest and 3 to 59% for the pasture). With the increasing antecedent wetness, hydrograph separation analysis showed progressive increases of pre-event water contributions to total stormflow (from 35 to 99% in the mature forest, 26 to 92% in the secondary forest and 64 to 97% in the pasture). At all three sites, rainfall-runoff responses were dominated by subsurface flow generation processes for the majority of storms. However, for the largest and most intense storm (typically occurring once every 2 yr), sampled under wet antecedent conditions, the event water contribution in the pasture (34% on average) was much higher than in the forests (5% on average), indicating that rainfall infiltration capacity of the pasture was exceeded. This result suggests that despite the high permeability of the volcanic soils and underlying substrate in this TMCF environment, the conversion of forest to pasture may lead to important changes in runoff generation processes during large and high intensity storms. On the other hand, our results also showed that 20 yr of natural regeneration may be enough to largely restore the original hydrological conditions of this TMCF.

Description: Relating aerosol absorption due to soot, organic carbon, and dust to emission sources determined from in-situ chemical measurements Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 9337-9350, 2013 Author(s): A. Cazorla, R. Bahadur, K. J. Suski, J. F. Cahill, D. Chand, B. Schmid, V. Ramanathan, and K. A. Prather Estimating the aerosol contribution to the global or regional radiative forcing can take advantage of the relationship between the spectral aerosol optical properties and the size and chemical composition of aerosol. Long term global optical measurements from observational networks or satellites can be used in such studies. Using in-situ chemical mixing state measurements can help us to constrain the limitations of such estimates. In this study, the Absorption Ångström Exponent (AAE) and the Scattering Ångström Exponent (SAE) derived from 10 operational AERONET sites in California are combined for deducing chemical speciation based on wavelength dependence of the optical properties. In addition, in-situ optical properties and single particle chemical composition measured during three aircraft field campaigns in California between 2010 and 2011 are combined in order to validate the methodology used for the estimates of aerosol chemistry using spectral optical properties. Results from this study indicate a dominance of mixed types in the classification leading to an underestimation of the primary sources, however secondary sources are better classified. The distinction between carbonaceous aerosols from fossil fuel and biomass burning origins is not clear, since their optical properties are similar. On the other hand, knowledge of the aerosol sources in California from chemical studies help to identify other misclassification such as the dust contribution.