ALBERT

Description: Regional and local patterns in depth to water table, hydrochemistry and peat properties of bogs and their laggs in coastal British Columbia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3421-3435, 2013 Author(s): S. A. Howie and H. J. van Meerveld In restoration planning for damaged raised bogs, the lagg at the bog margin is often not given considerable weight and is sometimes disregarded entirely. However, the lagg is critical for the proper functioning of the bog, as it supports the water mound in the bog. In order to include the lagg in a restoration plan for a raised bog, it is necessary to understand the hydrological characteristics and functions of this rarely studied transition zone. We studied 13 coastal British Columbia (BC) bogs and identified two different gradients in depth to water table, hydrochemistry and peat properties: (1) a local bog expanse–bog margin gradient, and (2) a regional gradient related to climate and proximity to the ocean. Depth to water table generally increased across the transition from bog expanse to bog margin. In the bog expanse, pH was above 4.2 in the Pacific Oceanic wetland region (cooler and wetter climate) and below 4.3 in the Pacific Temperate wetland region (warmer and drier climate). Both pH and pH-corrected electrical conductivity increased significantly across the transition from bog expanse to bog margin, though not in all cases. Na + and Mg 2+ concentrations were generally highest in exposed, oceanic bogs and lower in inland bogs. Ash content in peat samples increased across the bog expanse–bog margin transition, and appears to be a useful abiotic indicator of the location of the bog margin. The observed variation in the hydrological and hydrochemical gradients across the bog expanse–bog margin transition highlights both local and regional diversity of bogs and their associated laggs.

Description: Bayesian networks modelling in support to cross-cutting analysis of water supply and sanitation in developing countries Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3397-3419, 2013 Author(s): C. Dondeynaz, J. López Puga, and C. Carmona Moreno Despite the efforts made towards the Millennium Development Goals targets during the last decade, improved access to water supply or basic sanitation still remains unavailable for millions of people across the world. This paper proposes a set of models that use 25 key variables and country profiles from the WatSan4Dev data set involving water supply and sanitation (Dondeynaz et al., 2012). This paper suggests the use of Bayesian network modelling methods because they are more easily adapted to deal with non-normal distributions, and integrate a qualitative approach for data analysis. They also offer the advantage of integrating preliminary knowledge into the probabilistic models. The statistical performance of the proposed models ranges between 20 and 5% error rates, which are very satisfactory taking into account the strong heterogeneity of variables. Probabilistic scenarios run from the models allow an assessment of the relationships between human development, external support, governance aspects, economic activities and water supply and sanitation (WSS) access. According to models proposed in this paper, gaining a strong poverty reduction will require the WSS access to reach 75–76% through: (1) the management of ongoing urbanisation processes to avoid slums development; and (2) the improvement of health care, for instance for children. Improving governance, such as institutional efficiency, capacities to make and apply rules, or control of corruption is positively associated with WSS sustainable development. The first condition for an increment of the HDP (human development and poverty) remains of course an improvement of the economic conditions with higher household incomes. Moreover, a significant country commitment to the environment, associated with civil society freedom of expression constitutes a favourable setting for sustainable WSS services delivery. Intensive agriculture using irrigation practises also appears as a mean for sustainable WSS thanks to multi-uses and complementarities. With a WSS sector organised at national level, irrigation practices can support the structuring and efficiency of the agriculture sector. It may then induce rural development in areas where WSS access often is set back compared to urban areas 1 . External financial support, called Official Development Assistance (ODA CI), plays a role in WSS improvement but comes last in the sensitivity analyses of models. An overall 47% of the Official Development Assistance goes first to poor countries, and is associated to governance aspects: (1) political stability and (2) country commitment to the environment and civil society degree of freedom. These governance aspects constitute a good framework for aid implementation in recipient countries. Modelling is run with the five groups of countries as defined in Dondeynaz et al. (2012). Models for profile 4 (essential external support) and profile 5 (primary material consumption) are specifically detailed and analysed in this paper. For countries in profile 4, fighting against water scarcity and progressing desertification should be the priority. However, for countries in profile 5, efforts should first concentrate on consolidation of political stability while supporting diversification of the economic activities. Nevertheless, for both profiles, reduction of poverty should remain the first priority as previously indicated. 1 JMP statistics, 2004 http://www.wssinfo.org/data-estimates/table/ , last access: 22 July 2013.

Description: Technical Note: A comparison of model and empirical measures of catchment-scale effective energy and mass transfer Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3389-3395, 2013 Author(s): C. Rasmussen and E. L. Gallo Recent work suggests that a coupled effective energy and mass transfer (EEMT) term, which includes the energy associated with effective precipitation and primary production, may serve as a robust prediction parameter of critical zone structure and function. However, the models used to estimate EEMT have been solely based on long-term climatological data with little validation using direct empirical measures of energy, water, and carbon balances. Here we compare catchment-scale EEMT estimates generated using two distinct approaches: (1) EEMT modeled using the established methodology based on estimates of monthly effective precipitation and net primary production derived from climatological data, and (2) empirical catchment-scale EEMT estimated using data from 86 catchments of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) and MOD17A3 annual net primary production (NPP) product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Results indicated positive and significant linear correspondence ( R 2 = 0.75; P 〈 0.001) between model and empirical measures with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.86 MJ m −2 yr −1 . Modeled EEMT values were consistently greater than empirical measures of EEMT. Empirical catchment estimates of the energy associated with effective precipitation ( E PPT ) were calculated using a mass balance approach that accounts for water losses to quick surface runoff not accounted for in the climatologically modeled E PPT . Similarly, local controls on primary production such as solar radiation and nutrient limitation were not explicitly included in the climatologically based estimates of energy associated with primary production ( E BIO ), whereas these were captured in the remotely sensed MODIS NPP data. These differences likely explain the greater estimate of modeled EEMT relative to the empirical measures. There was significant positive correlation between catchment aridity and the fraction of EEMT partitioned into E BIO ( F BIO ), with an increase in F BIO as a fraction of the total as aridity increases and percentage of catchment woody plant cover decreases. In summary, the data indicated strong correspondence between model and empirical measures of EEMT with limited bias that agree well with other empirical measures of catchment energy and water partitioning and plant cover.

Description: Contribution of directly connected and isolated impervious areas to urban drainage network hydrographs Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3473-3483, 2013 Author(s): Y. Seo, N.-J. Choi, and A. R. Schmidt This paper addresses the mass balance error observed in runoff hydrographs in urban watersheds by introducing assumptions regarding the contribution of infiltrated rainfall from pervious areas and isolated impervious area (IIA) to the runoff hydrograph. Rainfall infiltrating into pervious areas has been assumed not to contribute to the runoff hydrograph until Hortonian excess rainfall occurs. However, mass balance analysis in an urban watershed indicates that rainfall infiltrated to pervious areas can contribute directly to the runoff hydrograph, thereby offering an explanation for the long hydrograph tail commonly observed in runoff from urban storm sewers. In this study, a hydrologic analysis based on the width function is introduced, with two types of width functions obtained from both pervious and impervious areas, respectively. The width function can be regarded as the direct interpretation of the network response. These two width functions are derived to obtain distinct response functions for directly connected impervious areas (DCIA), IIA, and pervious areas. The results show significant improvement in the estimation of runoff hydrographs and suggest the need to consider the flow contribution from pervious areas to the runoff hydrograph. It also implies that additional contribution from flow paths through joints and cracks in sewer pipes needs to be taken into account to improve the estimation of runoff hydrographs in urban catchments.

Description: Quantification of model uncertainty in aerosol optical thickness retrieval from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8509-8541, 2013 Author(s): A. Määttä, M. Laine, J. Tamminen, and J. P. Veefkind We study uncertainty quantification in remote sensing of aerosols in the atmosphere with top of the atmosphere reflectance measurements from the nadir-viewing Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Focus is on the uncertainty in aerosol model selection of pre-calculated aerosol models and on the statistical modelling of the model inadequacies. The aim is to apply statistical methodologies that improve the uncertainty estimates of the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrieval by propagating model selection and model error related uncertainties more realistically. We utilise Bayesian model selection and model averaging methods for the model selection problem and use Gaussian processes to model the smooth systematic discrepancies from the modelled to observed reflectance. The systematic model error is learned from an ensemble of operational retrievals. The operational OMI multi-wavelength aerosol retrieval algorithm OMAERO is used for cloud free, over land pixels of the OMI instrument with the additional Bayesian model selection and model discrepancy techniques. The method is demonstrated with four examples with different aerosol properties: weakly absorbing aerosols, forest fires over Greece and Russia, and Sahara dessert dust. The presented statistical methodology is general; it is not restricted to this particular satellite retrieval application.

Description: An original interpretation of the wet edge of the surface temperature–albedo space to estimate crop evapotranspiration (SEB-1S), and its validation over an irrigated area in northwestern Mexico Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3623-3637, 2013 Author(s): O. Merlin The space defined by the pair surface temperature ( T ) and surface albedo (α), and the space defined by the pair T and fractional green vegetation cover ( f vg ) have been extensively used to estimate evaporative fraction (EF) from solar/thermal remote sensing data. In both space-based approaches, evapotranspiration (ET) is estimated as remotely sensed EF times the available energy. For a given data point in the T -α space or in the T - f vg space, EF is derived as the ratio of the distance separating the point from the line identified as the dry edge to the distance separating the dry edge and the line identified as the wet edge. The dry and wet edges are classically defined as the upper and lower limit of the spaces, respectively. When investigating side by side the T -α and the T - f vg spaces, one observes that the range covered by T values on the (classically determined) wet edge is different for both spaces. In addition, when extending the wet and dry lines of the T -α space, both lines cross at α ≈ 0.4 although the wet and dry edges of the T - f vg space never cross for 0 ≤ f vg 〈 1. In this paper, a new ET (EF) model (SEB-1S) is derived by revisiting the classical physical interpretation of the T -α space to make its wet edge consistent with that of the T - f vg space. SEB-1S is tested over a 16 km by 10 km irrigated area in northwestern Mexico during the 2007–2008 agricultural season. The classical T -α space-based model is implemented as benchmark to evaluate the performance of SEB-1S. Input data are composed of ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer) thermal infrared, Formosat-2 shortwave, and station-based meteorological data. The fluxes simulated by SEB-1S and the classical T -α space-based model are compared on seven ASTER overpass dates with the in situ measurements collected at six locations within the study domain. The ET simulated by SEB-1S is significantly more accurate and robust than that predicted by the classical T -α space-based model. The correlation coefficient and slope of the linear regression between simulated and observed ET is improved from 0.82 to 0.93, and from 0.63 to 0.90, respectively. Moreover, constraining the wet edge using air temperature data improves the slope of the linear regression between simulated and observed ET.

Description: On an improved sub-regional water resources management representation for integration into earth system models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3605-3622, 2013 Author(s): N. Voisin, H. Li, D. Ward, M. Huang, M. Wigmosta, and L. R. Leung Human influence on the hydrologic cycle includes regulation and storage, consumptive use and overall redistribution of water resources in space and time. Representing these processes is essential for applications of earth system models in hydrologic and climate predictions, as well as impact studies at regional to global scales. Emerging large-scale research reservoir models use generic operating rules that are flexible for coupling with earth system models. Those generic operating rules have been successful in reproducing the overall regulated flow at large basin scales. This study investigates the uncertainties of the reservoir models from different implementations of the generic operating rules using the complex multi-objective Columbia River Regulation System in northwestern United States as an example to understand their effects on not only regulated flow but also reservoir storage and fraction of the demand that is met. Numerical experiments are designed to test new generic operating rules that combine storage and releases targets for multi-purpose reservoirs and to compare the use of reservoir usage priorities and predictors (withdrawals vs. consumptive demands, as well as natural vs. regulated mean flow) for configuring operating rules. Overall the best performing implementation is with combined priorities rules (flood control storage targets and irrigation release targets) set up with mean annual natural flow and mean monthly withdrawals. The options of not accounting for groundwater withdrawals, or on the contrary, of assuming that all remaining demand is met through groundwater extractions, are discussed.

Description: On selection of the optimal data time interval for real-time hydrological forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3639-3659, 2013 Author(s): J. Liu and D. Han With the advancement in modern telemetry and communication technologies, hydrological data can be collected with an increasingly higher sampling rate. An important issue deserving attention from the hydrological community is which suitable time interval of the model input data should be chosen in hydrological forecasting. Such a problem has long been recognised in the control engineering community but is a largely ignored topic in operational applications of hydrological forecasting. In this study, the intrinsic properties of rainfall–runoff data with different time intervals are first investigated from the perspectives of the sampling theorem and the information loss using the discrete wavelet transform tool. It is found that rainfall signals with very high sampling rates may not always improve the accuracy of rainfall–runoff modelling due to the catchment low-pass-filtering effect. To further investigate the impact of a data time interval in real-time forecasting, a real-time forecasting system is constructed by incorporating the probability distributed model (PDM) with a real-time updating scheme, the autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) model. Case studies are then carried out on four UK catchments with different concentration times for real-time flow forecasting using data with different time intervals of 15, 30, 45, 60, 90 and 120 min. A positive relation is found between the forecast lead time and the optimal choice of the data time interval, which is also highly dependent on the catchment concentration time. Finally, based on the conclusions from the case studies, a hypothetical pattern is proposed in three-dimensional coordinates to describe the general impact of the data time interval and to provide implications of the selection of the optimal time interval in real-time hydrological forecasting. Although nowadays most operational hydrological systems still have low data sampling rates (daily or hourly), the future is that higher sampling rates will become more widespread, and there is an urgent need for hydrologists both in academia and in the field to realise the significance of the data time interval issue. It is important that more case studies in different catchments with various hydrological forecasting systems are explored in the future to further verify and improve the proposed hypothetical pattern.

Description: Benchmark products for land evapotranspiration: LandFlux-EVAL multi-data set synthesis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3707-3720, 2013 Author(s): B. Mueller, M. Hirschi, C. Jimenez, P. Ciais, P. A. Dirmeyer, A. J. Dolman, J. B. Fisher, M. Jung, F. Ludwig, F. Maignan, D. G. Miralles, M. F. McCabe, M. Reichstein, J. Sheffield, K. Wang, E. F. Wood, Y. Zhang, and S. I. Seneviratne Land evapotranspiration (ET) estimates are available from several global data sets. Here, monthly global land ET synthesis products, merged from these individual data sets over the time periods 1989–1995 (7 yr) and 1989–2005 (17 yr), are presented. The merged synthesis products over the shorter period are based on a total of 40 distinct data sets while those over the longer period are based on a total of 14 data sets. In the individual data sets, ET is derived from satellite and/or in situ observations (diagnostic data sets) or calculated via land-surface models (LSMs) driven with observations-based forcing or output from atmospheric reanalyses. Statistics for four merged synthesis products are provided, one including all data sets and three including only data sets from one category each (diagnostic, LSMs, and reanalyses). The multi-annual variations of ET in the merged synthesis products display realistic responses. They are also consistent with previous findings of a global increase in ET between 1989 and 1997 (0.13 mm yr −2 in our merged product) followed by a significant decrease in this trend (−0.18 mm yr −2 ), although these trends are relatively small compared to the uncertainty of absolute ET values. The global mean ET from the merged synthesis products (based on all data sets) is 493 mm yr −1 (1.35 mm d −1 ) for both the 1989–1995 and 1989–2005 products, which is relatively low compared to previously published estimates. We estimate global runoff (precipitation minus ET) to 263 mm yr −1 (34 406 km 3 yr −1 ) for a total land area of 130 922 000 km 2 . Precipitation, being an important driving factor and input to most simulated ET data sets, presents uncertainties between single data sets as large as those in the ET estimates. In order to reduce uncertainties in current ET products, improving the accuracy of the input variables, especially precipitation, as well as the parameterizations of ET, are crucial.

Description: Spatial patterns in timing of the diurnal temperature cycle Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3695-3706, 2013 Author(s): T. R. H. Holmes, W. T. Crow, and C. Hain This paper investigates the structural difference in timing of the diurnal temperature cycle (DTC) over land resulting from choice of measuring device or model framework. It is shown that the timing can be reliably estimated from temporally sparse observations acquired from a constellation of low Earth-orbiting satellites given record lengths of at least three months. Based on a year of data, the spatial patterns of mean DTC timing are compared between temperature estimates from microwave Ka-band, geostationary thermal infrared (TIR), and numerical weather prediction model output from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). It is found that the spatial patterns can be explained by vegetation effects, sensing depth differences and more speculatively the orientation of orographic relief features. In absolute terms, the GMAO model puts the peak of the DTC on average at 12:50 local solar time, 23 min before TIR with a peak temperature at 13:13 (both averaged over Africa and Europe). Since TIR is the shallowest observation of the land surface, this small difference represents a structural error that possibly affects the model's ability to assimilate observations that are closely tied to the DTC. The equivalent average timing for Ka-band is 13:44, which is influenced by the effect of increased sensing depth in desert areas. For non-desert areas, the Ka-band observations lag the TIR observations by only 15 min, which is in agreement with their respective theoretical sensing depth. The results of this comparison provide insights into the structural differences between temperature measurements and models, and can be used as a first step to account for these differences in a coherent way.

Description: The Greenhouse Gas Climate Change Initiative (GHG-CCI): comparative validation of GHG-CCI SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT and TANSO-FTS/GOSAT CO 2 and CH 4 retrieval algorithm products with measurements from the TCCON network Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8679-8741, 2013 Author(s): B. Dils, M. Buchwitz, M. Reuter, O. Schneising, H. Boesch, R. Parker, S. Guerlet, I. Aben, T. Blumenstock, J. P. Burrows, A. Butz, N. M. Deutscher, C. Frankenberg, F. Hase, O. P. Hasekamp, J. Heymann, M. De Mazière, J. Notholt, R. Sussmann, T. Warneke, D. Griffith, V. Sherlock, and D. Wunch Column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of carbon dioxide and methane have been retrieved from spectra acquired by the TANSO-FTS and SCIAMACHY instruments on board GOSAT and ENVISAT using a range of European retrieval algorithms. These retrievals have been compared with data from ground-based high-resolution Fourier Transform Spectrometers (FTS) from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). The participating algorithms are the Weighting Function Modified Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) algorithm (WFMD, University of Bremen), the Bremen Optimal Estimation DOAS algorithm (BESD, University of Bremen), the Iterative Maximum A Posteriori DOAS (IMAP, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and Netherlands Institute for Space Research algorithm (SRON)), the proxy and full-physics versions of SRON's RemoTeC algorithm (SRPR and SRFP respectively) and the proxy and full-physics versions of the University of Leicester's adaptation of the OCO (Orbiting Carbon Observatory) algorithm (OCPR and OCFP respectively). The goal of this algorithm inter-comparison was to identify strengths and weaknesses of the various so-called Round Robin data sets generated with the various algorithms so as to determine which of the competing algorithms would proceed to the next round of the European Space Agency's (ESA) Greenhouse Gas Climate Change Initiative (GHG-CCI) project, which is the generation of the so-called Climate Research Data Package (CRDP), which is the first version of the Essential Climate Variable (ECV) "Greenhouse Gases" (GHG). For CO 2 , all algorithms reach the precision requirements for inverse modelling ( 〈 8 ppb), with only WFMD having a lower precision (4.7 ppm) than the other algorithm products (2.4–2.5 ppm). When looking at the seasonal relative accuracy (SRA, variability of the bias in space and time), none of the algorithms have reached the demanding 〈 0.5 ppm threshold. For CH 4 , the precision for both SCIAMACHY products (50.2 ppb for IMAP and 76.4 ppb for WFMD) fail to meet the 〈 34 ppb threshold, but note that this work focusses on the period after the 2005 SCIAMACHY detector degradation. The GOSAT X CH 4 precision ranges between 18.1 and 14.0 ppb. Looking at the SRA, all GOSAT algorithm products reach the 〈 10 ppm threshold (values ranging between 5.4 and 6.2 ppb). For SCIAMACHY, IMAP and WFMD have a SRA of 17.2 ppb and 10.5 ppb respectively.

Description: Integrated hydrological modeling of the North China Plain and implications for sustainable water management Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3759-3778, 2013 Author(s): H. Qin, G. Cao, M. Kristensen, J. C. Refsgaard, M. O. Rasmussen, X. He, J. Liu, Y. Shu, and C. Zheng Groundwater overdraft has caused fast water level decline in the North China Plain (NCP) since the 1980s. Although many hydrological models have been developed for the NCP in the past few decades, most of them deal only with the groundwater component or only at local scales. In the present study, a coupled surface water–groundwater model using the MIKE SHE code has been developed for the entire alluvial plain of the NCP. All the major processes in the land phase of the hydrological cycle are considered in the integrated modeling approach. The most important parameters of the model are first identified by a sensitivity analysis process and then calibrated for the period 2000–2005. The calibrated model is validated for the period 2006–2008 against daily observations of groundwater heads. The simulation results compare well with the observations where acceptable values of root mean square error (RMSE) (most values lie below 4 m) and correlation coefficient ( R ) (0.36–0.97) are obtained. The simulated evapotranspiration (ET) is then compared with the remote sensing (RS)-based ET data to further validate the model simulation. The comparison result with a R 2 value of 0.93 between the monthly averaged values of simulated actual evapotranspiration (AET) and RS AET for the entire NCP shows a good performance of the model. The water balance results indicate that more than 70% of water leaving the flow system is attributed to the ET component, of which about 0.25% is taken from the saturated zone (SZ); about 29% comes from pumping, including irrigation pumping and non-irrigation pumping (net pumping). Sustainable water management analysis of the NCP is conducted using the simulation results obtained from the integrated model. An effective approach to improve water use efficiency in the NCP is by reducing the actual ET, e.g. by introducing water-saving technologies and changes in cropping.

Description: Simulation of a persistent medium-term precipitation event over the western Iberian Peninsula Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3741-3758, 2013 Author(s): S. C. Pereira, A. C. Carvalho, J. Ferreira, J. P. Nunes, J. J. Keizer, and A. Rocha This study evaluated the performance of the WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting with Advanced Research) weather prediction model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed during the rainy season and, more specifically, the month of December 2009. In this period, the region of interest was under the influence of a sequential passage of low-pressure systems associated with frontal surfaces. These synoptic weather patterns were responsible for long periods of rainfall, resulting in a high monthly precipitation. The WRF model results during the study period were furthermore evaluated with the specific objective to complement gaps in the precipitation recordings of a reference meteorological station (located in Pousadas), the data of which are fundamental for hydrological studies in nearby experimental catchments. Three distinct WRF model runs were forced with initial fields and boundary conditions obtained from a global domain model: (1) a reference experiment with no nudging (RunRef); (2) observational nudging for a specific location, i.e. the above-mentioned Pousadas reference station (RunObsN); and (3) nudging to the analysed field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated, using several statistical parameters, against a dataset of 27 rainfall stations that were grouped by elevation. The three model runs had similar performances, even though RunGridN resulted in a slight improvement. Regarding the other two experiments, this improvement justifies its use for complementing the surface measurements at the Pousadas reference station. Overall model accuracy, expressed in root mean square error (RMSE), of the three runs was comparable for the stations of the different elevations classes. Even so, it was slightly better for stations in the lowlands than the highlands. Furthermore, model predictions tended to be less accurate for stations located in rough terrain and deep valleys.

Description: Investigating the spatio-temporal variability in groundwater and surface water interactions: a multi-technique approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3437-3453, 2013 Author(s): N. P. Unland, I. Cartwright, M. S. Andersen, G. C. Rau, J. Reed, B. S. Gilfedder, A. P. Atkinson, and H. Hofmann The interaction between groundwater and surface water along the Tambo and Nicholson rivers, southeast Australia, was investigated using 222 Rn, Cl, differential flow gauging, head gradients, electrical conductivity (EC) and temperature profiles. Head gradients, temperature profiles, Cl concentrations and 222 Rn activities all indicate higher groundwater fluxes to the Tambo River in areas of increased topographic variation where the potential to form large groundwater–surface water gradients is greater. Groundwater discharge to the Tambo River calculated by Cl mass balance was significantly lower (1.48 × 10 4 to 1.41 × 10 3 m 3 day −1 ) than discharge estimated by 222 Rn mass balance (5.35 × 10 5 to 9.56 × 10 3 m 3 day −1 ) and differential flow gauging (5.41 × 10 5 to 6.30 × 10 3 m 3 day −1 ) due to bank return waters. While groundwater sampling from the bank of the Tambo River was intended to account for changes in groundwater chemistry associated with bank infiltration, variations in bank infiltration between sample sites remain unaccounted for, limiting the use of Cl as an effective tracer. Groundwater discharge to both the Tambo and Nicholson rivers was the highest under high-flow conditions in the days to weeks following significant rainfall, indicating that the rivers are well connected to a groundwater system that is responsive to rainfall. Groundwater constituted the lowest proportion of river discharge during times of increased rainfall that followed dry periods, while groundwater constituted the highest proportion of river discharge under baseflow conditions (21.4% of the Tambo in April 2010 and 18.9% of the Nicholson in September 2010).

Description: Resolving structural errors in a spatially distributed hydrologic model using ensemble Kalman filter state updates Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3455-3472, 2013 Author(s): J. H. Spaaks and W. Bouten In hydrological modeling, model structures are developed in an iterative cycle as more and different types of measurements become available and our understanding of the hillslope or watershed improves. However, with increasing complexity of the model, it becomes more and more difficult to detect which parts of the model are deficient, or which processes should also be incorporated into the model during the next development step. In this study, we first compare two methods (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (SCEM-UA) and the Simultaneous parameter Optimization and Data Assimilation algorithm (SODA)) to calibrate a purposely deficient 3-D hillslope-scale model to error-free, artificially generated measurements. We use a multi-objective approach based on distributed pressure head at the soil–bedrock interface and hillslope-scale discharge and water balance. For these idealized circumstances, SODA's usefulness as a diagnostic methodology is demonstrated by its ability to identify the timing and location of processes that are missing in the model. We show that SODA's state updates provide information that could readily be incorporated into an improved model structure, and that this type of information cannot be gained from parameter estimation methods such as SCEM-UA. We then expand on the SODA result by performing yet another calibration, in which we investigate whether SODA's state updating patterns are still capable of providing insight into model structure deficiencies when there are fewer measurements, which are moreover subject to measurement noise. We conclude that SODA can help guide the discussion between experimentalists and modelers by providing accurate and detailed information on how to improve spatially distributed hydrologic models.

Description: The effect of phase partitioning of semivolatile compounds on the measured CCN activity of aerosol particles Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8413-8433, 2013 Author(s): S. Romakkaniemi, A. Jaatinen, A. Laaksonen, A. Nenes, and T. Raatikainen The effect of inorganic semivolatile aerosol compounds on the CCN activity of aerosol particles was studied by using a computational model for a DMT-CCN counter, a cloud parcel model for condensation kinetics and experiments to quantify the modelled results. Concentrations of water vapour and semivolatiles as well as aerosol trajectories in the CCN column were calculated by a computational fluid dynamics model. These trajectories and vapour concentrations were then used as an input for the cloud parcel model to simulate mass transfer kinetics of water and semivolatiles between aerosol particles and the gas phase. Two different questions were studied: (1) how big fraction of semivolatiles is evaporated from particles before activation in the CCN counter? (2) How much the CCN activity can be increased due to condensation of semivolatiles prior to the maximum water supersaturation in the case of high semivolatile concentration in the gas phase? The results show that, to increase the CCN activity of aerosol particles, a very high gas phase concentration (as compared to typical ambient conditions) is needed. We used nitric acid as a test compound. A concentration of several ppb or higher is needed for measurable effect. In the case of particle evaporation, we used ammonium nitrate as a test compound and found that it partially evaporates before maximum supersaturation is reached in the CCN counter, thus causing an underestimation of CCN activity. The effect of evaporation is clearly visible in all supersaturations, leading to an underestimation of the critical dry diameter by 10 to 15 nanometres in the case of ammonium nitrate particles in different supersaturations. This result was also confirmed by measurements in supersaturations between 0.1 and 0.7%.

Description: Spatial and seasonal variations in evapotranspiration over Canada's landmass Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3561-3575, 2013 Author(s): S. Wang, Y. Yang, Y. Luo, and A. Rivera A 30 yr (1979–2008) dataset of actual evapotranspiration (ET) at 1 km resolution was generated over Canada's landmass by integrating remote sensing land surface data and gridded climate data using the EALCO model run at a 30 min time step. This long-term high-resolution dataset was used to characterize the spatiotemporal variations in ET across Canada. The results show that annual ET varied from 600 mm yr −1 over several regions in the south to less than 100 mm yr −1 in the northern Arctic. Nationally, ET in summer (i.e., June to August) comprised 65% of the annual total amount. ET in the cold season remained mostly below 10 mm month −1 over the country. Negative monthly ET was obtained over the Arctic region in winter, indicating EALCO simulated a larger amount of condensation than ET. Overall, the mean ET over the entire Canadian landmass for the 30 yr was 239 mm yr −1 , or 44% of its corresponding precipitation. Comparisons of available ET studies in Canada revealed large uncertainties in ET estimates associated with using different approaches. The scarcity of ET measurements for the diverse ecosystems in Canada remains a significant challenge for reducing the uncertainties; this gap needs to be addressed in future studies to improve capabilities in climate/weather modeling and water resource management.

Description: Post-processing rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models for short-term streamflow forecasting Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3587-3603, 2013 Author(s): D. E. Robertson, D. L. Shrestha, and Q. J. Wang Sub-daily ensemble rainfall forecasts that are bias free and reliably quantify forecast uncertainty are critical for flood and short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting. Post-processing of rainfall predictions from numerical weather prediction models is typically required to provide rainfall forecasts with these properties. In this paper, a new approach to generate ensemble rainfall forecasts by post-processing raw numerical weather prediction (NWP) rainfall predictions is introduced. The approach uses a simplified version of the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach to produce forecast probability distributions for individual locations and forecast lead times. Ensemble forecasts with appropriate spatial and temporal correlations are then generated by linking samples from the forecast probability distributions using the Schaake shuffle. The new approach is evaluated by applying it to post-process predictions from the ACCESS-R numerical weather prediction model at rain gauge locations in the Ovens catchment in southern Australia. The joint distribution of NWP predicted and observed rainfall is shown to be well described by the assumed log-sinh transformed bivariate normal distribution. Ensemble forecasts produced using the approach are shown to be more skilful than the raw NWP predictions both for individual forecast lead times and for cumulative totals throughout all forecast lead times. Skill increases result from the correction of not only the mean bias, but also biases conditional on the magnitude of the NWP rainfall prediction. The post-processed forecast ensembles are demonstrated to successfully discriminate between events and non-events for both small and large rainfall occurrences, and reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty. Future work will assess the efficacy of the post-processing method for a wider range of climatic conditions and also investigate the benefits of using post-processed rainfall forecasts for flood and short-term streamflow forecasting.

Description: Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3661-3677, 2013 Author(s): A. F. Lutz, W. W. Immerzeel, A. Gobiet, F. Pellicciotti, and M. F. P. Bierkens Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July–September) while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October–February). However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.

Description: Prediction of dissolved reactive phosphorus losses from small agricultural catchments: calibration and validation of a parsimonious model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3679-3693, 2013 Author(s): C. Hahn, V. Prasuhn, C. Stamm, P. Lazzarotto, M. W. H. Evangelou, and R. Schulin Eutrophication of surface waters due to diffuse phosphorus (P) losses continues to be a severe water quality problem worldwide, causing the loss of ecosystem functions of the respective water bodies. Phosphorus in runoff often originates from a small fraction of a catchment only. Targeting mitigation measures to these critical source areas (CSAs) is expected to be most efficient and cost-effective, but requires suitable tools. Here we investigated the capability of the parsimonious Rainfall-Runoff-Phosphorus (RRP) model to identify CSAs in grassland-dominated catchments based on readily available soil and topographic data. After simultaneous calibration on runoff data from four small hilly catchments on the Swiss Plateau, the model was validated on a different catchment in the same region without further calibration. The RRP model adequately simulated the discharge and dissolved reactive P (DRP) export from the validation catchment. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model predictions were robust with respect to the classification of soils into "poorly drained" and "well drained", based on the available soil map. Comparing spatial hydrological model predictions with field data from the validation catchment provided further evidence that the assumptions underlying the model are valid and that the model adequately accounts for the dominant P export processes in the target region. Thus, the parsimonious RRP model is a valuable tool that can be used to determine CSAs. Despite the considerable predictive uncertainty regarding the spatial extent of CSAs, the RRP can provide guidance for the implementation of mitigation measures. The model helps to identify those parts of a catchment where high DRP losses are expected or can be excluded with high confidence. Legacy P was predicted to be the dominant source for DRP losses and thus, in combination with hydrologic active areas, a high risk for water quality.

Description: Spectral Aerosol Extinction Monitoring System (SÆMS): setup, observational products, and comparisons Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8647-8677, 2013 Author(s): A. Skupin, A. Ansmann, R. Engelmann, and H. Baars A Spectral Aerosol Extinction Monitoring System (SÆMS) is presented that allows us to continuously measure the spectral extinction coefficient of atmospheric aerosol particles along an about 2.7 km long optical path at 30–50 m height above ground at Leipzig (51.3° N, 12.4° E), Germany. The fully automated instrument measures the ambient aerosol extinction coefficients from 300–1000 nm. The main goal of SÆMS observations are long-term studies of the relationship between particle extinction and relative humidity from below 40 % to almost 100 %. The setup is presented and observations (a case study and statistical results for 2009) are discussed in terms of time series of 550 nm particle optical depth, Ångström exponent, and particle size distribution retrieved from the spectrally resolved extinction. The SÆMS measurements are compared with simultaneously performed EARLINET lidar, AERONET photometer, and in situ aerosol observations of particle size distribution and related extinction coefficients at the roof of our institute. Consistency between the different measurements is found which corroborates the quality of the SÆMS observations.

Description: Validation of SCIAMACHY O 2 A band cloud heights using Cloudnet radar/lidar measurements Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8603-8645, 2013 Author(s): P. Wang and P. Stammes For the first time two SCIAMACHY O 2 A band cloud height products are validated using ground-based radar/lidar measurements between January 2003 and December 2011. The products are the ESA Level 2 (L2) version 5.02 cloud top height and the FRESCO (Fast Retrieval Scheme for Clouds from the Oxygen A band) version 6 cloud height. The radar/lidar profiles are obtained at the Cloudnet sites of Cabauw and Lindenberg, and are averaged for one hour centered at the SCIAMACHY overpass time to achieve an optimal temporal and spatial match. In total we have about 220 cases of single layer clouds and 200 cases of multi-layer clouds. The FRESCO cloud height and ESA L2 cloud top height are compared with the Cloudnet cloud top height and Cloudnet cloud middle height. We find that the ESA L2 cloud top height has a better agreement with the Cloudnet cloud top height than the Cloudnet cloud middle height. The ESA L2 cloud top height is on average 0.44 km higher than the Cloudnet cloud top height, with a standard deviation of 3.07 km. The FRESCO cloud height is closer to the Cloudnet cloud middle height than the Cloudnet cloud top height. The mean difference between the FRESCO cloud height and the Cloudnet cloud middle height is −0.14 km with a standard deviation of 1.88 km. The SCIAMACHY cloud height products are further compared to the Cloudnet cloud top height and the Cloudnet cloud middle height in 1 km bins. For single layer clouds, the difference between the ESA L2 cloud top height and the Cloudnet cloud top height is less than 1 km for each cloud bin at 3–7 km, which is 24 % percent of the data. The difference between the FRESCO cloud height and the Cloudnet cloud middle height is less than 1 km for each cloud bin at 0–6 km, which is 85 % percent of the data. The results are similar for multi-layer clouds, but the percentage of cases having a bias within 1 km is smaller than for single layer clouds. Since globally about 60 % of all clouds are low clouds and 42 % are single-layer low clouds, we expect that globally for a large percentage of cases the FRESCO cloud height would be close to the cloud middle height.

Description: Characteristics of cloud liquid water path from SEVIRI on the Meteosat Second Generation 2 satellite for several cloud types Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8743-8782, 2013 Author(s): A. Kniffka, M. Stengel, M. Lockhoff, R. Bennartz, and R. Hollmann In this study the temporal and spatial characteristics of liquid water path (LWP) of low, middle level and high clouds are analysed using space-based observations of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) onboard the Meteosat Second Generation 2 (MSG2) satellite. Both geophysical quantities are part of the dataset CLAAS (CLoud property dAtAset using SEVIRI) and are generated by EUMETSAT's Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF). In this article we focus on the statistical properties of LWP retrieved at daylight associated with the individual cloud type. Our results reveal that each cloud type possesses a characteristic LWP distribution. These frequency distributions are constant with time in the entire SEVIRI field of view, but vary for smaller regions like Central Europe. The average LWP is higher over land than over sea, in case of low clouds 15–27% for 2009 and the variance of the frequency distributions is enhanced. Also, the average diurnal cycle of LWP is related to cloud type where most pronounced diurnal variations were detected for middle level clouds. With SEVIRI it is possible to distinguish between intrinsic LWP variability and variations driven by cloud amount. The relative amplitude of the intrinsic diurnal cycle can exceed the cloud amount driven amplitude.

Description: High-resolution Med-CORDEX regional climate model simulations for hydrological impact studies: a first evaluation of the ALADIN-Climate model in Morocco Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3721-3739, 2013 Author(s): Y. Tramblay, D. Ruelland, S. Somot, R. Bouaicha, and E. Servat In the framework of the international CORDEX program, new regional climate model (RCM) simulations at high spatial resolutions are becoming available for the Mediterranean region (Med-CORDEX initiative). This study provides the first evaluation for hydrological impact studies of one of these high-resolution simulations in a 1800 km 2 catchment located in North Morocco. Different approaches are compared to analyze the climate change impacts on the hydrology of this catchment using a high-resolution RCM (ALADIN-Climate) from the Med-CORDEX initiative at two different spatial resolutions (50 and 12 km) and for two different Radiative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The main issues addressed in the present study are: (i) what is the impact of increased RCM resolution on present-climate hydrological simulations and on future projections? (ii) Are the bias-correction of the RCM model and the parameters of the hydrological model stationary and transferable to different climatic conditions? (iii) What is the climate and hydrological change signal based on the new Radiative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)? Results indicate that high resolution simulations at 12 km better reproduce the seasonal patterns, the seasonal distributions and the extreme events of precipitation. The parameters of the hydrological model, calibrated to reproduce runoff at the monthly time step over the 1984–2010 period, do not show a strong variability between dry and wet calibration periods in a differential split-sample test. However the bias correction of precipitation by quantile-matching does not give satisfactory results in validation using the same differential split-sample testing method. Therefore a quantile-perturbation method that does not rely on any stationarity assumption and produces ensembles of perturbed series of precipitation was introduced. The climate change signal under scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 indicates a decrease of respectively −30 to −57% in surface runoff for the mid-term (2041–2062), when for the same period the projections for precipitation are ranging between −15 and −19% and for temperature between +1.3 and +1.9 °C.

Description: Remote sensing of atmospheric trace gas columns: an efficient approach for regularization and calculation of total column averaging kernels Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 4999-5031, 2013 Author(s): T. Borsdorff, O. P. Hasekamp, A. Wassmann, and J. Landgraf A concept is proposed to retrieve the vertical column densities of atmospheric trace gases from remote sensing measurements. It combines the numerical simplicity of a least-squares profile scaling retrieval with the numerically robust calculation of the total column averaging kernel using an analytic expression. The approach enables calculation of the total column averaging kernel on arbitrary vertical grids. Formally, the proposed method is equivalent to Tikhonov regularization of the first kind with an infinite regularization strength. Due to its efficiency it is particularly suited for implementation in operational data processing with high demands on processing time. To demonstrate the method, we apply it to CO column retrieval from simulated measurements in the 2.3 μm spectral region and to O 3 column retrieval from the UV, which represents ideal measurements of a series of space-borne spectrometers like SCIAMACHY, TROPOMI, GOME, and GOME-2. For both spectral ranges, we consider clear-sky and cloudy scenes where clouds are modelled as an elevated Lambertian surface. Here, the smoothing error for the clear-sky and cloudy atmosphere is significant and reaches several percent, depending on the reference profile which is used for scaling. This underlines the importance of the column averaging kernel for a proper interpretation of retrieved column densities. Furthermore, we show that the total column smoothing error is affected by a discretization error when total column averaging kernels are not represented on a fine enough vertical grid. For both retrievals this effect becomes negligible by using a vertical grid with 20–40 equally thick layers between 0 and 50 km.

Description: Mixing layer height retrievals by multichannel microwave radiometer observations Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 4971-4998, 2013 Author(s): D. Cimini, F. De Angelis, J.-C. Dupont, S. Pal, and M. Haeffelin The mixing layer height (MLH) is a key parameter for boundary layer studies, including meteorology, air quality, and climate. MLH estimates are inferred from in situ radiosonde measurements or remote sensing observations from instruments like lidar, wind profiling radar, or sodar. Methods used to estimate MLH from radiosonde profiles are also used with atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles retrieved by microwave radiometers (MWR). This paper proposes an alternative approach to estimate MLH from MWR data, based on direct observations (brightness temperatures, Tb) instead of retrieved profiles. To our knowledge, MLH estimates directly from Tb observations has never been attempted before. The method consists of a multivariate linear regression trained with an a priori set of collocated MWR Tb observations (multi-frequency and multi-angle) and MLH estimates from a state-of-the-art lidar system. Results show that the method is able to follow both the diurnal cycle and the day-to-day variability as suggested by the lidar measurements, and also it can detect low MLH values that are below the full overlap limit (~ 200 m) of the lidar system used. Statistics of the comparison between MWR- and reference lidar-based MLH retrievals show mean difference within 10 m, RMS within 340 m, and correlation coefficient higher than 0.77. Monthly mean analysis for day-time MLH from MWR, lidar, and radiosonde shows consistent seasonal variability, peaking at ~ 1200–1400 m in June and decreasing down to ~ 600 m in October. Conversely, night-time monthly mean MLH from all methods are within 300–500 m without any significant seasonal variability. The proposed method provides results that are more consistent with radiosonde estimates than MLH estimates from MWR retrieved profiles. MLH monthly mean values agree well within 1 std with bulk Richardson number method applied at radiosonde profiles at 11:00 and 23:00 UTC. The method described herewith operates continuously and it is expected to work with analogous performances for the entire diurnal cycle, except during considerable precipitation, demonstrating new potential for atmospheric observation by ground-based microwave radiometry.

Description: Stratospheric aerosol particle size information in Odin-OSIRIS limb scatter spectra Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 5065-5099, 2013 Author(s): L. A. Rieger, A. E. Bourassa, and D. A. Degenstein The Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging System (OSIRIS) on-board the Odin satellite has now taken over a decade of limb scatter measurements that have been used to retrieve the Version 5 stratospheric aerosol extinction product. This product is retrieved using a representative particle size distribution to calculate scattering cross sections and scattering phase functions for the forward model calculations. In this work the information content of OSIRIS measurements with respect to stratospheric aerosol is systematically examined for the purpose of retrieving particle size information along with the extinction coefficient. The benefit of using measurements at different wavelengths and scattering angles in the retrieval is studied and it is found that incorporation of the 1530 nm radiance measurement is key for a robust retrieval of particle size information. It is also found that using OSIRIS measurements at different solar geometries simultaneously provides little additional benefit. Based on these results, an improved aerosol retrieval algorithm is developed that couples the retrieval of aerosol extinction and mode radius of a log-normal particle size distribution. Comparison of these results with coincident measurements from SAGE III show agreement in retrieved extinction to within approximately 10% over the bulk of the aerosol layer, which is comparable to Version 5. The retrieved particle size, when converted to Ångström coefficient, shows good qualitative agreement with SAGE II measurements made at somewhat shorter wavelengths.

Description: Errors in climate model daily precipitation and temperature output: time invariance and implications for bias correction Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2147-2159, 2013 Author(s): E. P. Maurer, T. Das, and D. R. Cayan When correcting for biases in general circulation model (GCM) output, for example when statistically downscaling for regional and local impacts studies, a common assumption is that the GCM biases can be characterized by comparing model simulations and observations for a historical period. We demonstrate some complications in this assumption, with GCM biases varying between mean and extreme values and for different sets of historical years. Daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature from late 20th century simulations by four GCMs over the United States were compared to gridded observations. Using random years from the historical record we select a "base" set and a 10 yr independent "projected" set. We compare differences in biases between these sets at median and extreme percentiles. On average a base set with as few as 4 randomly-selected years is often adequate to characterize the biases in daily GCM precipitation and temperature, at both median and extreme values; 12 yr provided higher confidence that bias correction would be successful. This suggests that some of the GCM bias is time invariant. When characterizing bias with a set of consecutive years, the set must be long enough to accommodate regional low frequency variability, since the bias also exhibits this variability. Newer climate models included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fifth assessment will allow extending this study for a longer observational period and to finer scales.

Description: Characterization of groundwater dynamics in landslides in varved clays Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2171-2183, 2013 Author(s): J. E. van der Spek, T. A. Bogaard, and M. Bakker Groundwater dynamics may play a significant role in landslides. A detailed model is developed of the groundwater dynamics in landslides in varved clays in the Trièves area in the French Alps. The varved clays consist of a sequence of alternating silt and clay layers, covered by a colluvium layer and intersected by fissures. The hydraulic conductivity of the clay layers is negligible compared to the silt layers. It is conceptualized that fissures form a hydraulic connection between the colluvium and the varved clays. Groundwater recharge flows through the colluvium into the fissures, where water is exchanged horizontally between the fissure and the silt layers of the varved clays. Groundwater flow in the colluvium is simulated with the Boussinesq equation, while flow in the silt layers of the varved clays is simulated with the Richards equation. Longitudinal outflow from the fissure is simulated with a linear-reservoir model. Scattered data of relatively short monitoring periods is available for several landslides in the region. A good similarity between observed and simulated heads is obtained, especially when considering the lack of important physical parameters such as the fissure width and the distance between the monitoring point and the fissure. A simulation for the period 1959–2004 showed some correlation between peaks in the simulated heads and the recorded occurrence of landslides, while the bottom of the varved clays remained saturated during the entire simulation period.

Description: SAGE version 7.0 algorithm: application to SAGE II Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 5101-5171, 2013 Author(s): R. P. Damadeo, J. M. Zawodny, L. W. Thomason, and N. Iyer This paper details the SAGE version 7.0 algorithm and how it is applied to SAGE II. Changes made between the previous (v6.2) and current (v7.0) versions are described and their impacts on the data products explained for both coincident event comparisons and time-series analysis. Users of the data will notice a general improvement in all of the SAGE II data products, which are now in better agreement with more modern data sets (e.g. SAGE III) and more robust for use with trend studies.

Description: Assessing the hydrological effect of the check dams in the Loess Plateau, China, by model simulations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2185-2193, 2013 Author(s): Y. D. Xu, B. J. Fu, and C. S. He Check dams are commonly used for soil conservation. In the Loess Plateau of China, check dams have been widely constructed as the principal means to retain floodwater and intercept soil sediments since the 1970s. For instance, there are more than 6572 check dams in the Yanhe watershed with an area of 7725 km 2 in the Loess Plateau. However, little research has been done to quantify the hydrological effects of the check dams. In this research, the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was applied to simulate the runoff and sediment in the Yanhe watershed. We treated the 1950s to 1960s as the reference period since there were very few check dams during the period. The model was firstly calibrated and validated in the reference period. The calibrated model was then used in the later periods to simulate the hydrological effects of the check dams. The results showed that the check dams had a regulation effect on runoff and a retention effect on sediment. From 1984 to 1987, the runoff in rainy season (from May to October) decreased by 1.54 m 3 s −1 (14.7%) to 3.13 m 3 s −1 (25.9%) due to the check dams; while in dry season (from November to the following April), runoff increased by 1.46 m 3 s −1 (60.5%) to 1.95 m 3 s −1 (101.2%); the sediment in rainy season decreased by 2.49 × 10 6 ton (34.6%) to 4.35 × 10 6 ton (48.0%). From 2006 to 2008, the runoff in rainy season decreased by 0.79 m 3 s −1 (15.5%) to 1.75 m 3 s −1 (28.9%), and the runoff in dry season increased by 0.51 m 3 s −1 (20.1%) to 0.97 m 3 s −1 (46.4%); the sediment in rainy season decreased by 2.03 × 10 6 ton (79.4%) to 3.12 × 10 6 ton (85.5%). Construction of the large number of check dams in the Loess Plateau has enhanced the region's capacity to control the runoff and sediment. In the Yanhe watershed, the annual runoff was reduced by less than 14.3% due to the check dams; and the sediment in rainy season was blocked by up to 85.5%. Thus, check dams are effective measures for soil erosion control in the Loess Plateau.

Description: Technical Note: Aeolian dust proxies produce visible luminescence upon intense laser-illumination that results from incandescence of internally mixed carbon Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 5173-5194, 2013 Author(s): L. Ma, T. Cao, and J. E. Thompson Mineral dust mimics dispersed in air produced visible luminescence between 550–800 nm when illuminated with a high peak power (MW range) Nd:YAG laser beam at 532 or 1064 nm. The luminescence persists for a few microseconds after the laser pulse and the measured emission spectrum is roughly consistent with a blackbody emitter at ≈4300 K. Both observations are consistent with assigning laser-induced incandescence (LII) as the source of the luminescence. However, light emission intensity from the mineral dust proxies is 240–4600 less intense than incandescence from fresh kerosene soot on a per-mass basis at laser pulse energies 90% on average. Heating to 350 °C reduced emission by 45–72%. Since black carbon soot and char (BC) oxidizes at elevated temperatures and BC is known to be present in soils, we conclude emission of light from the mineral dust aerosol proxies is likely a result of black carbon or char internally mixed within the soil dust sample. The reduction in LII response for samples heated to temperatures of 250–350 °C may result from partial oxidation of BC, but alternatively, could implicate a role for carbon present within organic molecules. The study suggests laser-induced incandescence measurements may allow quantitation of black carbon in soils and that soil dust is not truly an interferent in BC analysis by LII, but rather, a BC containing material.

Description: Determining spatial variability of dry spells: a Markov-based method, applied to the Makanya catchment, Tanzania Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2161-2170, 2013 Author(s): B. M. C. Fischer, M. L. Mul, and H. H. G. Savenije With a growing world population and a trend towards more resource-intensive diets, pressure on land and water resources for food production will continue to increase in the coming decades. Large parts of the world rely on rainfed agriculture for their food security. In Africa, 90% of the food production is from rainfed agriculture, generally with low yields and a high risk of crop failure. One of the main reasons for crop failure is the occurrence of dry spells during the growing season. Key indicators are the critical dry spell duration and the probability of dry spell occurrence. In this paper a new Markov-based framework is presented to spatially map the length of dry spells for fixed probabilities of non-exceedance. The framework makes use of spatially varying Markov coefficients that are correlated to readily available spatial information such as elevation and distance to the sea. The dry spell map thus obtained is compared to the spatially variable critical dry spell duration, based on soil properties and crop water requirements, to assess the probability of crop failure in different locations. The results show that in the Makanya catchment the length of dry spell occurrence is highly variable in space, even over relatively short distances. In certain areas the probability of crop failure reaches levels that make rainfed agricultural unsustainable, even close to areas where currently rainfed agriculture is successfully being practised. This method can be used to identify regions that are vulnerable to dry spells and, subsequently, to develop strategies for supplementary irrigation or rainwater harvesting.

Description: Estimating actual, potential, reference crop and pan evaporation using standard meteorological data: a pragmatic synthesis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1331-1363, 2013 Author(s): T. A. McMahon, M. C. Peel, L. Lowe, R. Srikanthan, and T. R. McVicar This guide to estimating daily and monthly actual, potential, reference crop and pan evaporation covers topics that are of interest to researchers, consulting hydrologists and practicing engineers. Topics include estimating actual evaporation from deep lakes and from farm dams and for catchment water balance studies, estimating potential evaporation as input to rainfall-runoff models, and reference crop evapotranspiration for small irrigation areas, and for irrigation within large irrigation districts. Inspiration for this guide arose in response to the authors' experiences in reviewing research papers and consulting reports where estimation of the actual evaporation component in catchment and water balance studies was often inadequately handled. Practical guides using consistent terminology that cover both theory and practice are not readily available. Here we provide such a guide, which is divided into three parts. The first part provides background theory and an outline of the conceptual models of potential evaporation of Penman, Penman–Monteith and Priestley–Taylor, as well as discussions of reference crop evapotranspiration and Class-A pan evaporation. The last two sub-sections in this first part include techniques to estimate actual evaporation from (i) open-surface water and (ii) landscapes and catchments (Morton and the advection-aridity models). The second part addresses topics confronting a practicing hydrologist, e.g. estimating actual evaporation for deep lakes, shallow lakes and farm dams, lakes covered with vegetation, catchments, irrigation areas and bare soil. The third part addresses six related issues: (i) automatic (hard wired) calculation of evaporation estimates in commercial weather stations, (ii) evaporation estimates without wind data, (iii) at-site meteorological data, (iv) dealing with evaporation in a climate change environment, (v) 24 h versus day-light hour estimation of meteorological variables, and (vi) uncertainty in evaporation estimates. This paper is supported by a Supplement that includes 21 sections enhancing the material in the text, worked examples of many procedures discussed in the paper, a program listing (Fortran 90) of Morton's WREVAP evaporation models along with tables of monthly Class-A pan coefficients for 68 locations across Australia and other information.

Description: Corrigendum to "Calibration of aerodynamic roughness over the Tibetan Plateau with Ensemble Kalman Filter analysed heat flux" published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4291–4302, 2012 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1309-1310, 2013 Author(s): J. H. Lee, J. Timmermans, Z. Su, and M. Mancini No abstract available.

Description: Structural break or long memory: an empirical survey on daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1311-1318, 2013 Author(s): F. Yusof, I. L. Kane, and Z. Yusop A short memory process that encounters occasional structural breaks in mean can show a slower rate of decay in the autocorrelation function and other properties of fractional integrated I (d) processes. In this paper we employed a procedure for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in semiparametric contexts proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983) to analyse nine daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia. The results indicate that all the data sets exhibit long memory. Furthermore, an empirical fluctuation process using the ordinary least square (OLS)-based cumulative sum (CUSUM) test for the break date was applied. Break dates were detected in all data sets. The data sets were partitioned according to their respective break date, and a further test for long memory was applied for all subseries. Results show that all subseries follows the same pattern as the original series. The estimate of the fractional parameters d 1 and d 2 on the subseries obtained by splitting the original series at the break date confirms that there is a long memory in the data generating process (DGP). Therefore this evidence shows a true long memory not due to structural break.

Description: Retrieval of aerosol parameters from the oxygen A band in the presence of chlorophyll fluorescence Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 3181-3213, 2013 Author(s): A. F. J. Sanders and J. F. de Haan We have investigated precision of retrieved parameters for a generic aerosol retrieval algorithm over vegetated land using the O 2 A band. Chlorophyll fluorescence is taken into account in the forward model. Fluorescence emissions are modeled as isotropic contributions to the upwelling radiance field at the surface and they are retrieved along with aerosol parameters. Precision is calculated by propagating measurement noise using the forward model's derivatives. We assume that measurement noise is dominated by shot noise; thus, results apply to grating spectrometers in particular. In a number of retrieval simulations, we describe precision for various atmospheric states, observation geometries and spectral resolutions of the instrument. Our results show that aerosol optical thickness, aerosol pressure, fluorescence emission and surface albedo can be simultaneously retrieved from the O 2 A band. We also show that most of the fluorescence signal is provided by filling-in of the O 2 A band and to a lesser extent by filling-in of Fraunhofer lines.

Description: Snow glacier melt estimation in tropical Andean glaciers using artificial neural networks Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1265-1280, 2013 Author(s): V. Moya Quiroga, A. Mano, Y. Asaoka, S. Kure, K. Udo, and J. Mendoza Snow and glacier melt (SGM) estimation plays an important role in water resources management. Although melting process can be modelled by energy balance methods, such studies require detailed data, which is rarely available. Hence, new and simpler approaches are needed for SGM estimations. The present study aims at developing an artificial neural networks (ANN) based technique for estimating the energy available for melt (EAM) and SGM rates using available and easy to obtain data such as temperature, short-wave radiation and relative humidity. Several ANN and multiple linear regression models (MLR) were developed to represent the energy fluxes and estimate the EAM. The models were trained using measured data from the Zongo glacier located in the outer tropics and validated against measured data from the Antizana glacier located in the inner tropics. It was found that ANN models provide a better generalisation when applied to other data sets. The performance of the models was improved by including Antizana data into the training set, as it was proved to provide better results than other techniques like the use of a prior logarithmic transformation. The final model was validated against measured data from the Alpine glaciers Argentière and Saint-Sorlin. Then, the models were applied for the estimation of SGM at Condoriri glacier. The estimated SGM was compared with SGM estimated by an enhanced temperature method and proved to have the same behaviour considering temperature sensibility. Moreover, the ANN models have the advantage of direct application, while the temperature method requires calibration of empirical coefficients.

Description: Assessment of shallow subsurface characterisation with non-invasive geophysical methods at the intermediate hill-slope scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1297-1307, 2013 Author(s): S. Popp, D. Altdorff, and P. Dietrich Hill-slopes of several hectares in size represent a difficult scale for subsurface characterisation, as these landscape units are well beyond the scope of traditional point-scale techniques. By means of electromagnetic induction (EMI) and gamma-ray spectroscopy, spatially distributed soil proxy data were collected from a heterogeneous hill-slope site. Results of EMI mapping using the EM38DD showed that soil electrical conductivity (ECa) is highly variable at both temporal and spatial scales. Calibration of the integral ECa signal to a specific target like soil moisture is hampered by the ambiguous response of EMI to the clay-rich hill-slope underground. Gamma-ray results were obtained during a single survey, along with EMI measurements and selected soil sampling. In contrast to ECa, a noticeable correlation between Total Count and K emission data and soil-water content seemed to be present. Relevant proxy variables from both methods were used for k means clustering in order to distinguish between hill-slope areas with different soil conditions. As a result, we obtained a suitable partition of hill-slope that was comparable with a previously obtained zonation model based on ecological factors.

Description: Multivariate return periods in hydrology: a critical and practical review focusing on synthetic design hydrograph estimation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1281-1296, 2013 Author(s): B. Gräler, M. J. van den Berg, S. Vandenberghe, A. Petroselli, S. Grimaldi, B. De Baets, and N. E. C. Verhoest Most of the hydrological and hydraulic studies refer to the notion of a return period to quantify design variables. When dealing with multiple design variables, the well-known univariate statistical analysis is no longer satisfactory, and several issues challenge the practitioner. How should one incorporate the dependence between variables? How should a multivariate return period be defined and applied in order to yield a proper design event? In this study an overview of the state of the art for estimating multivariate design events is given and the different approaches are compared. The construction of multivariate distribution functions is done through the use of copulas, given their practicality in multivariate frequency analyses and their ability to model numerous types of dependence structures in a flexible way. A synthetic case study is used to generate a large data set of simulated discharges that is used for illustrating the effect of different modelling choices on the design events. Based on different uni- and multivariate approaches, the design hydrograph characteristics of a 3-D phenomenon composed of annual maximum peak discharge, its volume, and duration are derived. These approaches are based on regression analysis, bivariate conditional distributions, bivariate joint distributions and Kendall distribution functions, highlighting theoretical and practical issues of multivariate frequency analysis. Also an ensemble-based approach is presented. For a given design return period, the approach chosen clearly affects the calculated design event, and much attention should be given to the choice of the approach used as this depends on the real-world problem at hand.

Description: McClear: a new model estimating downwelling solar radiation at ground level in clear-sky conditions Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 3367-3405, 2013 Author(s): M. Lefèvre, A. Oumbe, P. Blanc, B. Espinar, B. Gschwind, Z. Qu, L. Wald, M. Schroedter-Homscheidt, C. Hoyer-Klick, A. Arola, A. Benedetti, J. W. Kaiser, and J.-J. Morcrette A new fast clear-sky model called McClear was developed to estimate the downwelling shortwave direct and global irradiances received at ground level under clear skies. McClear implements a fully physical modelling replacing empirical relations or simpler models used before. It exploits the recent results on aerosol properties, and total column content in water vapor and ozone produced by the MACC project (Monitoring Atmosphere Composition and Climate). It accurately reproduces the irradiance computed by the libRadtran reference radiative transfer model with a computational speed approximately 10 5 times greater by adopting the abaci, or look-up tables, approach combined with interpolation functions. It is therefore suited for geostationary satellite retrievals or numerical weather prediction schemes with many pixels or grid points, respectively. McClear irradiances were compared to 1 min measurements made in clear-sky conditions in several stations within the Baseline Surface Radiation Network in various climates. For global, respectively direct, irradiance, the correlation coefficient ranges between 0.95 and 0.99, resp. 0.86 and 0.99. The bias is comprised between −14 and 25 W m −2 , resp. −49 and +33 W m −2 . The RMSE ranges between 20 W m −2 (3% of the mean observed irradiance) and 36 W m −2 (5%), resp. 33 W m −2 (5%) and 64 W m −2 (10%). These results are much better than those from state-of-the-art models. This work demonstrates the quality of the McClear model combined with MACC products, and indirectly the quality of the aerosol properties modeled by the MACC reanalysis.

Description: Experimental quantification of contact freezing in an electrodynamic balance Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 3407-3437, 2013 Author(s): N. Hoffmann, A. Kiselev, D. Rzesanke, D. Duft, and T. Leisner Heterogeneous nucleation of ice in a supercooled water droplet induced by an external contact with a dry aerosol particle has long been known to be more effective than freezing induced by the same nucleus immersed in the droplet. However, the experimental quantification of contact freezing is challenging. Here we report an experimental method allowing to determine the temperature dependent ice nucleation probability of size selected aerosol particles. The method uses supercooled charged water droplets suspended in a laminar flow of air containing aerosol particles as contact freezing nuclei. The rate of droplet–particle collisions is calculated numerically with account for Coulomb attraction, drag force and induced dipole interaction between charged droplet and aerosol particles. The calculation is verified by direct counting of aerosol particles collected by a levitated droplet. By repeating the experiment on individual droplets for a sufficient number of times, we are able to reproduce the statistical freezing behavior of a large ensemble of supercooled droplets and measure the average rate of freezing events. The freezing rate is equal to the product of the droplet–particle collision rate and the probability of freezing on a single contact, the latter being a function of temperature, size and composition of the contact ice nuclei. Based on these observations, we show that for the types of particles investigated so far, contact freezing is the dominating freezing mechanism on the time scale of our experiment.

Description: Derivation of RCM-driven potential evapotranspiration for hydrological climate change impact analysis in Great Britain: a comparison of methods and associated uncertainty in future projections Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 1365-1377, 2013 Author(s): C. Prudhomme and J. Williamson Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is the water that would be lost by plants through evaporation and transpiration if water was not limited in the soil, and it is commonly used in conceptual hydrological modelling in the calculation of runoff production and hence river discharge. Future changes of PET are likely to be as important as changes in precipitation patterns in determining changes in river flows. However PET is not calculated routinely by climate models so it must be derived independently when the impact of climate change on river flow is to be assessed. This paper compares PET estimates from 12 equations of different complexity, driven by the Hadley Centre's HadRM3-Q0 model outputs representative of 1961–1990, with MORECS PET, a product used as reference PET in Great Britain. The results show that the FAO56 version of the Penman–Monteith equations reproduces best the spatial and seasonal variability of MORECS PET across GB when driven by HadRM3-Q0 estimates of relative humidity, total cloud, wind speed and linearly bias-corrected mean surface temperature. This suggests that potential biases in HadRM3-Q0 climate do not result in significant biases when the physically based FAO56 equations are used. Percentage changes in PET between the 1961–1990 and 2041–2070 time slices were also calculated for each of the 12 PET equations from HadRM3-Q0. Results show a large variation in the magnitude (and sometimes direction) of changes estimated from different PET equations, with Turc, Jensen–Haise and calibrated Blaney–Criddle methods systematically projecting the largest increases across GB for all months and Priestley–Taylor, Makkink, and Thornthwaite showing the smallest changes. We recommend the use of the FAO56 equation as, when driven by HadRM3-Q0 climate data, this best reproduces the reference MORECS PET across Great Britain for the reference period of 1961–1990. Further, the future changes of PET estimated by FAO56 are within the range of uncertainty defined by the ensemble of 12 PET equations. The changes show a clear northwest–southeast gradient of PET increase with largest (smallest) changes in the northwest in January (July and October) respectively. However, the range in magnitude of PET changes due to the choice of PET method shown in this study for Great Britain suggests that PET uncertainty is a challenge facing the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology mostly ignored up to now.

Description: Separating mixtures of aerosol types in airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar data Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8269-8309, 2013 Author(s): S. P. Burton, M. A. Vaughan, R. A. Ferrare, and C. A. Hostetler Knowledge of aerosol type is important for source attribution and for determining the magnitude and assessing the consequences of aerosol radiative forcing. However, atmospheric aerosol is frequently not a single pure type, but instead occurs as a mixture of types, and this mixing affects the optical and radiative properties of the aerosol. This paper extends the work of earlier researchers by using the aerosol intensive parameters measured by the NASA Langley Research Center airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL-1) to develop a comprehensive and unified set of rules for characterizing the external mixing of several key aerosol intensive parameters: extinction-to-backscatter ratio (i.e. lidar ratio), backscatter color ratio, and depolarization ratio. We present the mixing rules in a particularly simple form that leads easily to mixing rules for the covariance matrices that describe aerosol distributions, rather than just scalar values of measured parameters. These rules can be applied to infer mixing ratios from the lidar-observed aerosol parameters, even for cases without significant depolarization. We demonstrate our technique with measurement curtains from three HSRL-1 flights which exhibit mixing between two aerosol types, urban pollution plus dust, marine plus dust, and smoke plus marine. For these cases, we infer a time-height cross-section of mixing ratio along the flight track, and partition aerosol extinction into portions attributed to the two pure types.

Description: Lidar-based remote sensing of atmospheric boundary layer height over land and ocean Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8311-8338, 2013 Author(s): T. Luo, R. Yuan, and Z. Wang Atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) processes are important in climate, weather and air quality. A better understanding of the structure and the behavior of the ABL is required for understanding and modeling of the chemistry and dynamics of the atmosphere on all scales. Based on the systematic variations of ABL structures over different surfaces, different lidar-based methods were developed and evaluated to determine the boundary layer height and mixing layer height over land and ocean. With Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Climate Research Facility (ACRF) micropulse lidar (MPL) and radiosonde measurements, diurnal and season cycles of atmospheric boundary layer depth and ABL vertical structure over ocean (TWP_C2 cite) and land (SGP_C1) are analyzed. The new methods are also applied to satellite lidar measurements. The derived global marine boundary layer structure database shows good agreement with marine ABL stratiform cloud top height.

Description: Fast reconstruction of hyperspectral radiative transfer simulations by using small spectral subsets: application to the oxygen A band Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8339-8370, 2013 Author(s): A. Hollstein and R. Lindstrot Hyperspectral radiative transfer simulations are a versatile tool in remote sensing but can pose a major computational burden. We describe a simple method to construct hyperspectral simulation results by using only a small spectral subsample of the simulated wavelength range, thus leading to major speedups in such simulations. This is achieved by computing principal components for a small number of representative hyperspectral spectra and then deriving a reconstruction matrix for a specific spectral subset of channels to compute the hyperspectral data. The method is applied and discussed in detail using the example of top of atmosphere radiances in the oxygen A band, leading to speedups in the range of one to two orders of magnitude when compared to radiative transfer simulations at full spectral resolution.

Description: An assessment of cloud top thermodynamic phase products obtained from A-Train passive and active sensors Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8371-8411, 2013 Author(s): S. Zeng, J. Riedi, F. Parol, C. Cornet, and F. Thieuleux The A-Train observations provide an unprecedented opportunity for the production of high quality dataset describing cloud properties. We illustrate in this study the use of one year of coincident POLDER (Polarization and Directionality of the Earth Reflectance), MODIS (MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) observations to establish a reference dataset for the description of cloud top thermodynamic phase at global scale. We present the results of an extensive comparison between POLDER and MODIS cloud top phase products and discuss those in view of cloud vertical structure and optical properties derived simultaneously from collocated CALIOP active measurements. These results allow to identify and quantify potential biases present in the 3 considered dataset. Among those, we discuss the impacts of observation geometry, thin cirrus in multilayered and single layered cloud systems, supercooled liquid droplets, aerosols, fractional cloud cover and snow/ice or bright surfaces on global statistics of cloud phase derived from POLDER and MODIS passive measurements. Based on these analysis we define criteria for the selection of high confidence cloud phase retrievals which in turn can serve for the establishment of a reference cloud phase product. This high confidence joint product derived from POLDER/PARASOL and MODIS/Aqua can be used in the future as a benchmark for the evaluation of other cloud climatologies, for the assessment of cloud phase representation in models and the development of better cloud phase parametrization in the general circulation models (GCMs).

Description: Impact of long-term drainage on summer groundwater flow patterns in the Mer Bleue peatland, Ontario, Canada Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3485-3498, 2013 Author(s): B. J. Kopp, J. H. Fleckenstein, N. T. Roulet, E. Humphreys, J. Talbot, and C. Blodau Long-term impacts of drier conditions on the hydrology of northern peatlands are poorly understood. We used long-term drainage near a historic drainage ditch, separating an area from the main peatland, as an analogue for long-term drying in a northern temperate bog. The objective was to identify the impact of drier conditions on ecohydrological processes and groundwater flow patterns in an area now forested and an area that maintained a bog-like character. Groundwater flow patterns alternated between mostly downward flow and occasionally upward flow in the bog area and were mostly upward-orientated in the forested area, which suggested that there the flow pattern had shifted from bog- to fen-like conditions. Flow patterns were in agreement with changes in post-drainage hydraulic conductivities, storage capacity of the peat and water table levels. Compared to the bog, hydraulic conductivities in the forested area were one to three orders of magnitude lower in the uppermost 0.75 m of peat (paired t test, p 〈 0.05). Bulk density had increased and the water table level was lower and more strongly fluctuating in the forested area. Our findings suggest hydraulic gradients and flow patterns have changed due to increased evapotranspiration and interception with the emergence of a tree cover. The smaller size of the now-forested area relative to the remaining bog area appeared to be important for the hydrological change. With the main Mer Bleue bog as hinterland, enhanced runoff to the drainage channel had little effect on hydrologic and vegetation patterns. In the cut-off, smaller, now forested area pervasive changes in vegetation and hydrologic processes occurred. The difference in response to local drainage raises questions about tipping points with respect to the impact of drying on peatland ecosystems that need to be addressed in future research.

Description: Potential and limitations of multidecadal satellite soil moisture observations for selected climate model evaluation studies Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3523-3542, 2013 Author(s): A. Loew, T. Stacke, W. Dorigo, R. de Jeu, and S. Hagemann Soil moisture is an essential climate variable (ECV) of major importance for land–atmosphere interactions and global hydrology. An appropriate representation of soil moisture dynamics in global climate models is therefore important. Recently, a first multidecadal, observation-based soil moisture dataset has become available that provides information on soil moisture dynamics from satellite observations (ECVSM, essential climate variable soil moisture). The present study investigates the potential and limitations of this new dataset for several applications in climate model evaluation. We compare soil moisture data from satellite observations, reanalysis and simulations from a state-of-the-art land surface model and analyze relationships between soil moisture and precipitation anomalies in the different dataset. Other potential applications like model parameter optimization or model initialization are not investigated in the present study. In a detailed regional study, we show that ECVSM is capable to capture well the interannual and intraannual soil moisture and precipitation dynamics in the Sahelian region. Current deficits of the new dataset are critically discussed and summarized at the end of the paper to provide guidance for an appropriate usage of the ECVSM dataset for climate studies.

Description: Simultaneous estimation of model state variables and observation and forecast biases using a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3499-3521, 2013 Author(s): V. R. N. Pauwels, G. J. M. De Lannoy, H.-J. Hendricks Franssen, and H. Vereecken In this paper, we present a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter to estimate both observation and forecast bias in hydrologic models, in addition to state variables. The biases are estimated using the discrete Kalman filter, and the state variables using the ensemble Kalman filter. A key issue in this multi-component assimilation scheme is the exact partitioning of the difference between observation and forecasts into state, forecast bias and observation bias updates. Here, the error covariances of the forecast bias and the unbiased states are calculated as constant fractions of the biased state error covariance, and the observation bias error covariance is a function of the observation prediction error covariance. In a series of synthetic experiments, focusing on the assimilation of discharge into a rainfall-runoff model, it is shown that both static and dynamic observation and forecast biases can be successfully estimated. The results indicate a strong improvement in the estimation of the state variables and resulting discharge as opposed to the use of a bias-unaware ensemble Kalman filter. Furthermore, minimal code modification in existing data assimilation software is needed to implement the method. The results suggest that a better performance of data assimilation methods should be possible if both forecast and observation biases are taken into account.

Description: Land use change effects on runoff generation in a humid tropical montane cloud forest region Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3543-3560, 2013 Author(s): L. E. Muñoz-Villers and J. J. McDonnell While tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) provide critical hydrological services to downstream regions throughout much of the humid tropics, catchment hydrology and impacts associated with forest conversion in these ecosystems remain poorly understood. Here, we compare the annual, seasonal and event-scale streamflow patterns and runoff generation processes of three neighbouring headwater catchments in central Veracruz (eastern Mexico) with similar pedological and geological characteristics, but different land cover: old-growth TMCF, 20 yr-old naturally regenerating TMCF and a heavily grazed pasture. We used a 2 yr record of high resolution rainfall and stream flow data (2008–2010) in combination with stable isotope and chemical tracer data collected for a series of storms during a 6-week period of increasing antecedent wetness (wetting-up cycle). Our results showed that annual and seasonal streamflow patterns in the mature and secondary forest were similar. In contrast, the pasture showed a 10% higher mean annual streamflow, most likely because of a lower rainfall interception. During the wetting-up cycle, storm runoff ratios increased at all three catchments (from 11 to 54% for the mature forest, 7 to 52% for the secondary forest and 3 to 59% for the pasture). With the increasing antecedent wetness, hydrograph separation analysis showed progressive increases of pre-event water contributions to total stormflow (from 35 to 99% in the mature forest, 26 to 92% in the secondary forest and 64 to 97% in the pasture). At all three sites, rainfall-runoff responses were dominated by subsurface flow generation processes for the majority of storms. However, for the largest and most intense storm (typically occurring once every 2 yr), sampled under wet antecedent conditions, the event water contribution in the pasture (34% on average) was much higher than in the forests (5% on average), indicating that rainfall infiltration capacity of the pasture was exceeded. This result suggests that despite the high permeability of the volcanic soils and underlying substrate in this TMCF environment, the conversion of forest to pasture may lead to important changes in runoff generation processes during large and high intensity storms. On the other hand, our results also showed that 20 yr of natural regeneration may be enough to largely restore the original hydrological conditions of this TMCF.

Description: Odin-OSIRIS detection of the Chelyabinsk meteor Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8435-8443, 2013 Author(s): L. A. Rieger, A. E. Bourassa, and D. A. Degenstein On 15 February 2013 an 11 000 ton meteor entered Earth's atmosphere south east of Chelyabinsk creating a large fireball at 23 km altitude. The resulting stratospheric aerosol loading was detected by the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) in a high altitude polar belt. This work confirms the presence and lifetime of the stratospheric debris using the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging System (OSIRIS) onboard the Odin satellite. Although OSIRIS coverage begins in mid-March, the measurements show a belt of enhanced scattering near 35 km altitude between 50° N and 70° N. Initially, enhancements show increased scattering of up to 15% over the background conditions, decaying in intensity and dropping in altitude until they are indistinguishable from background conditions by mid-May.

Description: Probabilistic approach to cloud and snow detection on AVHRR imagery Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8445-8507, 2013 Author(s): J. P. Musial, F. Hüsler, M. Sütterlin, C. Neuhaus, and S. Wunderle The derivation of probability estimates complementary to geophysical data sets has gained special attention over the last years. The information about a confidence level of provided physical quantities is required to construct an error budget of higher level products and to correctly interpret final results of a particular analysis. Regarding the generation of products based on satellite data the common input consists of a cloud mask which allows discrimination between surface and cloud signals. Further the surface information is divided between snow and snow-free components. At any step of this discrimination process a misclassification in a cloud/snow mask propagates to higher level products and may alter their usability. Within this scope a novel Probabilistic Cloud Mask (PCM) algorithm suited for the 1×1 km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data is proposed which provides three types of probability estimates between: cloudy/clear-sky, cloudy/snow and clear-sky/snow conditions. As opposed to the majority of available techniques which are usually based on a decision-tree approach in the PCM algorithm all spectral, angular and ancillary information is used in a single step to retrieve the probability estimates from the pre-computed Look Up Tables (LUTs). Moreover, the issue of derivation of a single threshold value for a spectral test was overcome by the concept of multidimensional information space which is divided into small bins by an extensive set of thresholds. The discrimination between snow and ice clouds and detection of broken, thin clouds was enhanced by means of the Invariant Coordinate System (ICS) transformation. The study area covers a wide range of environmental conditions spanning from Iceland through central Europe to northern parts of Africa which exhibit diverse difficulties for cloud/snow masking algorithms. The retrieved PCM cloud classification was compared to the PPSv2012 and MOD35 collection 6 cloud masks, SYNOP weather reports, CALIPSO vertical feature mask version 3 and to MOD10A1 collection 5 snow mask. The outcomes of conducted analyses proved fine detection skills of the PCM method with comparable or better results than the reference PPS algorithm.

Description: Using the nonlinear aquifer storage–discharge relationship to simulate the base flow of glacier- and snowmelt-dominated basins in northwest China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3577-3586, 2013 Author(s): R. Gan and Y. Luo Base flow is an important component in hydrological modeling. This process is usually modeled by using the linear aquifer storage–discharge relation approach, although the outflow from groundwater aquifers is nonlinear. To identify the accuracy of base flow estimates in rivers dominated by snowmelt and/or glacier melt in arid and cold northwestern China, a nonlinear storage–discharge relationship for use in SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) modeling was developed and applied to the Manas River basin in the Tian Shan Mountains. Linear reservoir models and a digital filter program were used for comparisons. Meanwhile, numerical analysis of recession curves from 78 river gauge stations revealed variation in the parameters of the nonlinear relationship. It was found that the nonlinear reservoir model can improve the streamflow simulation, especially for low-flow period. The higher Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, logarithmic efficiency, and volumetric efficiency, and lower percent bias were obtained when compared to the one-linear reservoir approach. The parameter b of the aquifer storage–discharge function varied mostly between 0.0 and 0.1, which is much smaller than the suggested value of 0.5. The coefficient a of the function is related to catchment properties, primarily the basin and glacier areas.

Description: Retrieval techniques for airborne imaging of methane concentrations using high spatial and moderate spectral resolution: application to AVIRIS Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8543-8588, 2013 Author(s): A. K. Thorpe, C. Frankenberg, and D. A. Roberts Two quantitative retrieval techniques were evaluated to estimate methane (CH 4 ) enhancement in concentrated plumes using high spatial and moderate spectral resolution data from the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). An Iterative Maximum a Posteriori Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (IMAP-DOAS) algorithm performed well for an ocean scene containing natural CH 4 emissions from the Coal Oil Point (COP) seep field near Santa Barbara, California. IMAP-DOAS retrieval precision errors are expected to equal between 0.31 to 0.61 ppm CH 4 over the lowest atmospheric layer (height up to 1.04 km), corresponding to about a 30 to 60 ppm error for a 10 m thick plume. However, IMAP-DOAS results for a terrestrial scene were adveresly influenced by the underlying landcover. A hybrid approach using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) was particularly effective for terrestrial surfaces because it could better account for spectral variability in surface reflectance. Using this approach, a CH 4 plume was observed immediately downwind of two hydrocarbon storage tanks at the Inglewood Oil Field in Los Angeles, California, with a maximum near surface enhancement of 8.45 ppm above background. At COP, the distinct plume had a maximum enhancement of 2.85 ppm CH 4 above background and was consistent with known seep locations and local wind direction. A sensitivity analysis also indicates CH 4 sensitivity should be more than doubled for the next generation AVIRIS sensor (AVIRISng) due to improved spectral resolution and sampling. AVIRIS-like sensors offer the potential to better constrain emissions on local and regional scales, including sources of increasing concern like industrial point source emissions and fugitive CH 4 from the oil and gas industry.

Description: Effects of solar activity and geomagnetic field on noise in CALIOP profiles above the South Atlantic Anomaly Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 6, 8589-8602, 2013 Author(s): V. Noel, H. Chepfer, C. Hoareau, M. Reverdy, and G. Cesana By documenting noise levels in 6.5 yr of nighttime measurements by the spaceborne lidar CALIOP above the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA), we show they contain information about the evolution of upwelling high-energy radiation levels in the area. We find the amount of noisy profiles is influenced by the 11 yr cycle of solar activity, fluctuates by ±5% between 2006 and 2013, and is anticorrelated with solar activity with a 1 yr lag. The size of the SAA grows as solar activity decreases, and an overall westward shift of the SAA region is detectable. We predict SAA noise levels will increase anew after 2014, and will affect future spaceborne lidar missions most near 2020. In other areas, supposedly unaffected by incoming sunlight, nighttime noise levels are much weaker but follow the same 11 yr cycle, superimposed with a one-year cycle that affects both hemispheres similarly and could be attributed to geomagnetic activity.

Description: Technical Note: Reducing the spin-up time of integrated surface water–groundwater models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 5169-5179, 2014 Author(s): H. Ajami, J. P. Evans, M. F. McCabe, and S. Stisen One of the main challenges in the application of coupled or integrated hydrologic models is specifying a catchment's initial conditions in terms of soil moisture and depth-to-water table (DTWT) distributions. One approach to reducing uncertainty in model initialization is to run the model recursively using either a single year or multiple years of forcing data until the system equilibrates with respect to state and diagnostic variables. However, such "spin-up" approaches often require many years of simulations, making them computationally intensive. In this study, a new hybrid approach was developed to reduce the computational burden of the spin-up procedure by using a combination of model simulations and an empirical DTWT function. The methodology is examined across two distinct catchments located in a temperate region of Denmark and a semi-arid region of Australia. Our results illustrate that the hybrid approach reduced the spin-up period required for an integrated groundwater–surface water–land surface model (ParFlow.CLM) by up to 50%. To generalize results to different climate and catchment conditions, we outline a methodology that is applicable to other coupled or integrated modeling frameworks when initialization from an equilibrium state is required.

Description: Hydrogeology of an Alpine rockfall aquifer system and its role in flood attenuation and maintaining baseflow Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4437-4452, 2014 Author(s): U. Lauber, P. Kotyla, D. Morche, and N. Goldscheider The frequency and intensity of extreme hydrological events in Alpine regions is projected to increase with climate change. The goal of this study is to better understand the functioning of aquifers composed of complex alluvial and rockfall deposits in Alpine valleys and to quantify the role of these natural storage spaces in flood attenuation and baseflow maintenance. Geomorphological and hydrogeological mapping, tracer tests, and continuous flow measurements were conducted in the Reintal (German Alps), where runoff from a karst spring infiltrates a series of postglacial alluvial/rockfall aquifers. During high-flow conditions, groundwater velocities of 30 m h −1 were determined along 500 m; hydrograph analyses revealed short lag times (5 h) between discharge peaks upstream and downstream from the aquifer series; the maximum discharge ratio downstream (22) and the peak recession coefficient (0.196 d −1 ) are low compared with other Alpine catchments. During low-flow conditions, the underground flow path length increased to 2 km and groundwater velocities decreased to 13 m h −1 . Downstream hydrographs revealed a delayed discharge response after 101 h and peaks damped by a factor of 1.5. These results indicate that alluvial/rockfall aquifers might play an important role in the flow regime and attenuation of floods in Alpine regions.

Description: Observed groundwater temperature response to recent climate change Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4453-4466, 2014 Author(s): K. Menberg, P. Blum, B. L. Kurylyk, and P. Bayer Climate change is known to have a considerable influence on many components of the hydrological cycle. Yet, the implications for groundwater temperature, as an important driver for groundwater quality, thermal use and storage, are not yet comprehensively understood. Furthermore, few studies have examined the implications of climate-change-induced groundwater temperature rise for groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Here, we examine the coupling of atmospheric and groundwater warming by employing stochastic and deterministic models. Firstly, several decades of temperature time series are statistically analyzed with regard to climate regime shifts (CRSs) in the long-term mean. The observed increases in shallow groundwater temperatures can be associated with preceding positive shifts in regional surface air temperatures, which are in turn linked to global air temperature changes. The temperature data are also analyzed with an analytical solution to the conduction–advection heat transfer equation to investigate how subsurface heat transfer processes control the propagation of the surface temperature signals into the subsurface. In three of the four monitoring wells, the predicted groundwater temperature increases driven by the regime shifts at the surface boundary condition generally concur with the observed groundwater temperature trends. Due to complex interactions at the ground surface and the heat capacity of the unsaturated zone, the thermal signals from distinct changes in air temperature are damped and delayed in the subsurface, causing a more gradual increase in groundwater temperatures. These signals can have a significant impact on large-scale groundwater temperatures in shallow and economically important aquifers. These findings demonstrate that shallow groundwater temperatures have responded rapidly to recent climate change and thus provide insight into the vulnerability of aquifers and groundwater-dependent ecosystems to future climate change.

Description: Evaluation of the satellite-based Global Flood Detection System for measuring river discharge: influence of local factors Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4467-4484, 2014 Author(s): B. Revilla-Romero, J. Thielen, P. Salamon, T. De Groeve, and G. R. Brakenridge One of the main challenges for global hydrological modelling is the limited availability of observational data for calibration and model verification. This is particularly the case for real-time applications. This problem could potentially be overcome if discharge measurements based on satellite data were sufficiently accurate to substitute for ground-based measurements. The aim of this study is to test the potentials and constraints of the remote sensing signal of the Global Flood Detection System for converting the flood detection signal into river discharge values. The study uses data for 322 river measurement locations in Africa, Asia, Europe, North America and South America. Satellite discharge measurements were calibrated for these sites and a validation analysis with in situ discharge was performed. The locations with very good performance will be used in a future project where satellite discharge measurements are obtained on a daily basis to fill the gaps where real-time ground observations are not available. These include several international river locations in Africa: the Niger, Volta and Zambezi rivers. Analysis of the potential factors affecting the satellite signal was based on a classification decision tree (random forest) and showed that mean discharge, climatic region, land cover and upstream catchment area are the dominant variables which determine good or poor performance of the measure\-ment sites. In general terms, higher skill scores were obtained for locations with one or more of the following characteristics: a river width higher than 1km; a large floodplain area and in flooded forest, a potential flooded area greater than 40%; sparse vegetation, croplands or grasslands and closed to open and open forest; leaf area index 〉 2; tropical climatic area; and without hydraulic infrastructures. Also, locations where river ice cover is seasonally present obtained higher skill scores. This work provides guidance on the best locations and limitations for estimating discharge values from these daily satellite signals.

Description: Technical Note: On the Matt–Shuttleworth approach to estimate crop water requirements Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4341-4348, 2014 Author(s): J. P. Lhomme, N. Boudhina, and M. M. Masmoudi The Matt–Shuttleworth method provides a way to make a one-step estimate of crop water requirements with the Penman–Monteith equation by translating the crop coefficients, commonly available in United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) publications, into equivalent surface resistances. The methodology is based upon the theoretical relationship linking crop surface resistance to a crop coefficient and involves the simplifying assumption that the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) is equal to the Priestley–Taylor estimate with a fixed coefficient of 1.26. This assumption, used to eliminate the dependence of surface resistance on certain weather variables, is questionable; numerical simulations show that it can lead to substantial differences between the true value of surface resistance and its estimate. Consequently, the basic relationship between surface resistance and crop coefficient, without any assumption, appears to be more appropriate for inferring crop surface resistance, despite the interference of weather variables.

Description: Variational assimilation of remotely sensed flood extents using a 2-D flood model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4325-4339, 2014 Author(s): X. Lai, Q. Liang, H. Yesou, and S. Daillet A variational data assimilation (4D-Var) method is proposed to directly assimilate flood extents into a 2-D dynamic flood model to explore a novel way of utilizing the rich source of remotely sensed data available from satellite imagery for better analyzing or predicting flood routing processes. For this purpose, a new cost function is specially defined to effectively fuse the hydraulic information that is implicitly indicated in flood extents. The potential of using remotely sensed flood extents for improving the analysis of flood routing processes is demonstrated by applying the present new data assimilation approach to both idealized and realistic numerical experiments.

Description: Translating aboveground cosmic-ray neutron intensity to high-frequency soil moisture profiles at sub-kilometer scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4363-4379, 2014 Author(s): R. Rosolem, T. Hoar, A. Arellano, J. L. Anderson, W. J. Shuttleworth, X. Zeng, and T. E. Franz Above-ground cosmic-ray neutron measurements provide an opportunity to infer soil moisture at the sub-kilometer scale. Initial efforts to assimilate those measurements have shown promise. This study expands such analysis by investigating (1) how the information from aboveground cosmic-ray neutrons can constrain the soil moisture at distinct depths simulated by a land surface model, and (2) how changes in data availability (in terms of retrieval frequency) impact the dynamics of simulated soil moisture profiles. We employ ensemble data assimilation techniques in a "nearly-identical twin" experiment applied at semi-arid shrubland, rainfed agricultural field, and mixed forest biomes in the USA. The performance of the Noah land surface model is compared with and without assimilation of observations at hourly intervals, as well as every 2 days. Synthetic observations of aboveground cosmic-ray neutrons better constrain the soil moisture simulated by Noah in root-zone soil layers (0–100cm), despite the limited measurement depth of the sensor (estimated to be 12–20cm). The ability of Noah to reproduce a "true" soil moisture profile is remarkably good, regardless of the frequency of observations at the semi-arid site. However, soil moisture profiles are better constrained when assimilating synthetic cosmic-ray neutron observations hourly rather than every 2 days at the cropland and mixed forest sites. This indicates potential benefits for hydrometeorological modeling when soil moisture measurements are available at a relatively high frequency. Moreover, differences in summertime meteorological forcing between the semi-arid site and the other two sites may indicate a possible controlling factor to soil moisture dynamics in addition to differences in soil and vegetation properties.

Description: Large-scale 3-D modeling by integration of resistivity models and borehole data through inversion Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4349-4362, 2014 Author(s): N. Foged, P. A. Marker, A. V. Christansen, P. Bauer-Gottwein, F. Jørgensen, A.-S. Høyer, and E. Auken We present an automatic method for parameterization of a 3-D model of the subsurface, integrating lithological information from boreholes with resistivity models through an inverse optimization, with the objective of further detailing of geological models, or as direct input into groundwater models. The parameter of interest is the clay fraction, expressed as the relative length of clay units in a depth interval. The clay fraction is obtained from lithological logs and the clay fraction from the resistivity is obtained by establishing a simple petrophysical relationship, a translator function, between resistivity and the clay fraction. Through inversion we use the lithological data and the resistivity data to determine the optimum spatially distributed translator function. Applying the translator function we get a 3-D clay fraction model, which holds information from the resistivity data set and the borehole data set in one variable. Finally, we use k -means clustering to generate a 3-D model of the subsurface structures. We apply the procedure to the Norsminde survey in Denmark, integrating approximately 700 boreholes and more than 100 000 resistivity models from an airborne survey in the parameterization of the 3-D model covering 156 km 2 . The final five-cluster 3-D model differentiates between clay materials and different high-resistivity materials from information held in the resistivity model and borehole observations, respectively.

Description: Regional parent flood frequency distributions in Europe – Part 2: Climate and scale controls Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4391-4401, 2014 Author(s): J. L. Salinas, A. Castellarin, S. Kohnová, and T. R. Kjeldsen This study aims to better understand the effect of catchment scale and climate on the statistical properties of regional flood frequency distributions. A database of L-moment ratios of annual maximum series (AMS) of peak discharges from Austria, Italy and Slovakia, involving a total of 813 catchments with more than 25 yr of record length is presented, together with mean annual precipitation (MAP) and basin area as catchment descriptors surrogates of climate and scale controls. A purely data-based investigation performed on the database shows that the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution provides a better representation of the averaged sample L-moment ratios compared to the other distributions considered, for catchments with medium to higher values of MAP independently of catchment area, while the three-parameter lognormal distribution is probably a more appropriate choice for drier (lower MAP) intermediate-sized catchments, which presented higher skewness values. Sample L-moment ratios do not follow systematically any of the theoretical two-parameter distributions. In particular, the averaged values of L-coefficient of skewness (L-Cs) are always larger than Gumbel 's fixed L-Cs. The results presented in this paper contribute to the progress in defining a set of "process-driven" pan-European flood frequency distributions and to assess possible effects of environmental change on its properties.

Description: Potential of the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor for the monitoring of terrestrial chlorophyll fluorescence Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 7, 12545-12588, 2014 Author(s): L. Guanter, I. Aben, P. Tol, J. M. Krijger, A. Hollstein, P. Köhler, A. Damm, J. Joiner, C. Frankenberg, and J. Landgraf Global monitoring of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) can improve our knowledge about the photosynthetic functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. The feasibility of SIF retrievals from spaceborne atmospheric spectrometers has been demonstrated by a number of studies in the last years. In this work, we investigate the potential of the upcoming TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite mission for SIF retrieval. TROPOMI will sample the 675–775 nm spectral window with a spectral resolution of 0.5 nm and a pixel size of 7 km × 7 km. We use an extensive set of simulated TROPOMI data in order to assess the uncertainty of single SIF retrievals and subsequent spatio-temporal composites. Our results illustrate the enormous improvement in SIF monitoring achievable with TROPOMI with respect to comparable spectrometers currently in-flight, such as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) instrument. We find that TROPOMI can reduce global uncertainties in SIF mapping by more than a factor 2 with respect to GOME-2, which comes together with an about 5-fold improvement in spatial sampling. Finally, we discuss the potential of TROPOMI to accurately map other important vegetation parameters, such as leaf photosynthetic pigments and proxies for canopy structure, which will complement SIF retrievals for a self-contained description of vegetation condition and functioning.

Description: Quantification of hydrologic impacts of climate change in a Mediterranean basin in Sardinia, Italy, through high-resolution simulations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 5201-5217, 2014 Author(s): M. Piras, G. Mascaro, R. Deidda, and E. R. Vivoni Future climate projections robustly indicate that the Mediterranean region will experience a significant decrease of mean annual precipitation and an increase in temperature. These changes are expected to seriously affect the hydrologic regime, with a limitation of water availability and an intensification of hydrologic extremes, and to negatively impact local economies. In this study, we quantify the hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Rio Mannu basin (RMB), an agricultural watershed of 472.5 km 2 in Sardinia, Italy. To simulate the wide range of runoff generation mechanisms typical of Mediterranean basins, we adopted a physically based, distributed hydrologic model. The high-resolution forcings in reference and future conditions (30-year records for each period) were provided by four combinations of global and regional climate models, bias-corrected and downscaled in space and time (from ~25 km, 24 h to 5 km, 1 h) through statistical tools. The analysis of the hydrologic model outputs indicates that the RMB is expected to be severely impacted by future climate change. The range of simulations consistently predict (i) a significant diminution of mean annual runoff at the basin outlet, mainly due to a decreasing contribution of the runoff generation mechanisms depending on water available in the soil; (ii) modest variations in mean annual runoff and intensification of mean annual discharge maxima in flatter sub-basins with clay and loamy soils, likely due to a higher occurrence of infiltration excess runoff; (iii) reduction of soil water content and actual evapotranspiration in most areas of the basin; and (iv) a drop in the groundwater table. Results of this study are useful to support the adoption of adaptive strategies for management and planning of agricultural activities and water resources in the region.

Description: Assessing winter cover crop nutrient uptake efficiency using a water quality simulation model Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 5239-5253, 2014 Author(s): I.-Y. Yeo, S. Lee, A. M. Sadeghi, P. C. Beeson, W. D. Hively, G. W. McCarty, and M. W. Lang Winter cover crops are an effective conservation management practice with potential to improve water quality. Throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW), which is located in the mid-Atlantic US, winter cover crop use has been emphasized, and federal and state cost-share programs are available to farmers to subsidize the cost of cover crop establishment. The objective of this study was to assess the long-term effect of planting winter cover crops to improve water quality at the watershed scale (~ 50 km 2 ) and to identify critical source areas of high nitrate export. A physically based watershed simulation model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was calibrated and validated using water quality monitoring data to simulate hydrological processes and agricultural nutrient cycling over the period of 1990–2000. To accurately simulate winter cover crop biomass in relation to growing conditions, a new approach was developed to further calibrate plant growth parameters that control the leaf area development curve using multitemporal satellite-based measurements of species-specific winter cover crop performance. Multiple SWAT scenarios were developed to obtain baseline information on nitrate loading without winter cover crops and to investigate how nitrate loading could change under different winter cover crop planting scenarios, including different species, planting dates, and implementation areas. The simulation results indicate that winter cover crops have a negligible impact on the water budget but significantly reduce nitrate leaching to groundwater and delivery to the waterways. Without winter cover crops, annual nitrate loading from agricultural lands was approximately 14 kg ha −1 , but decreased to 4.6–10.1 kg ha −1 with cover crops resulting in a reduction rate of 27–67% at the watershed scale. Rye was the most effective species, with a potential to reduce nitrate leaching by up to 93% with early planting at the field scale. Early planting of cover crops (~ 30 days of additional growing days) was crucial, as it lowered nitrate export by an additional ~ 2 kg ha −1 when compared to late planting scenarios. The effectiveness of cover cropping increased with increasing extent of cover crop implementation. Agricultural fields with well-drained soils and those that were more frequently used to grow corn had a higher potential for nitrate leaching and export to the waterways. This study supports the effective implementation of cover crop programs, in part by helping to target critical pollution source areas for cover crop implementation.

Description: Derivation and evaluation of landslide-triggering thresholds by a Monte Carlo approach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4913-4931, 2014 Author(s): D. J. Peres and A. Cancelliere Assessment of landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds is useful for early warning in prone areas. In this paper, it is shown how stochastic rainfall models and hydrological and slope stability physically based models can be advantageously combined in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to generate virtually unlimited-length synthetic rainfall and related slope stability factor of safety data, exploiting the information contained in observed rainfall records and field-measurements of soil hydraulic and geotechnical parameters. The synthetic data set, dichotomized in triggering and non-triggering rainfall events, is analyzed by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis to derive stochastic-input physically based thresholds that optimize the trade-off between correct and wrong predictions. Moreover, the specific modeling framework implemented in this work, based on hourly analysis, enables one to analyze the uncertainty related to variability of rainfall intensity within events and to past rainfall (antecedent rainfall). A specific focus is dedicated to the widely used power-law rainfall intensity–duration ( I – D ) thresholds. Results indicate that variability of intensity during rainfall events influences significantly rainfall intensity and duration associated with landslide triggering. Remarkably, when a time-variable rainfall-rate event is considered, the simulated triggering points may be separated with a very good approximation from the non-triggering ones by a I – D power-law equation, while a representation of rainfall as constant–intensity hyetographs globally leads to non-conservative results. This indicates that the I – D power-law equation is adequate to represent the triggering part due to transient infiltration produced by rainfall events of variable intensity and thus gives a physically based justification for this widely used threshold form, which provides results that are valid when landslide occurrence is mostly due to that part. These conditions are more likely to occur in hillslopes of low specific upslope contributing area, relatively high hydraulic conductivity and high critical wetness ratio. Otherwise, rainfall time history occurring before single rainfall events influences landslide triggering, determining whether a threshold based only on rainfall intensity and duration may be sufficient or it needs to be improved by the introduction of antecedent rainfall variables. Further analyses show that predictability of landslides decreases with soil depth, critical wetness ratio and the increase of vertical basal drainage (leakage) that occurs in the presence of a fractured bedrock.

Description: Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River basin: habitat implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4897-4912, 2014 Author(s): D. L. Ficklin, B. L. Barnhart, J. H. Knouft, I. T. Stewart, E. P. Maurer, S. L. Letsinger, and G. W. Whittaker Water temperature is a primary physical factor regulating the persistence and distribution of aquatic taxa. Considering projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation in the coming century, accurate assessment of suitable thermal habitats in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species' responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream temperature model and downscaled general circulation model outputs to explore the spatially and temporally varying changes in stream temperature for the late 21st century at the subbasin and ecological province scale for the Columbia River basin (CRB). On average, stream temperatures are projected to increase 3.5 °C for the spring, 5.2 °C for the summer, 2.7 °C for the fall, and 1.6 °C for the winter. While results indicate changes in stream temperature are correlated with changes in air temperature, our results also capture the important, and often ignored, influence of hydrological processes on changes in stream temperature. Decreases in future snowcover will result in increased thermal sensitivity within regions that were previously buffered by the cooling effect of flow originating as snowmelt. Other hydrological components, such as precipitation, surface runoff, lateral soil water flow, and groundwater inflow, are negatively correlated to increases in stream temperature depending on the ecological province and season. At the ecological province scale, the largest increase in annual stream temperature was within the Mountain Snake ecological province, which is characterized by migratory coldwater fish species. Stream temperature changes varied seasonally with the largest projected stream temperature increases occurring during the spring and summer for all ecological provinces. Our results indicate that stream temperatures are driven by local processes and ultimately require a physically explicit modeling approach to accurately characterize the habitat regulating the distribution and diversity of aquatic taxa.

Description: The Level 2 research product algorithms for the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES) Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3593-3645, 2011 Author(s): P. Baron, J. Urban, H. Sagawa, J. Möller, D. P. Murtagh, J. Mendrok, E. Dupuy, T. O. Sato, S. Ochiai, K. Suzuki, T. Manabe, T. Nishibori, K. Kikuchi, R. Sato, M. Takayanagi, Y. Murayama, M. Shiotani, and Y. Kasai This paper describes the algorithms of the level-2 research (L2r) processing chain developed for the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES). The chain has been developed in parallel to the operational chain for conducting researches on calibration and retrieval algorithms. L2r chain products are available to the scientific community. The objective of version 2 is the retrieval of the vertical distribution of trace gases in the altitude range of 18–90 km. An theoretical error analysis is conducted to estimate the retrieval feasibility of key parameters of the processing: line-of-sight elevation tangent altitudes (or angles), temperature and O 3 profiles. The line-of-sight tangent altitudes are retrieved between 20 and 50 km from the strong ozone (O 3 ) line at 625.371 GHz, with low correlation with the O 3 volume-mixing ratio and temperature retrieved profiles. Neglecting the non-linearity of the radiometric gain in the calibration procedure is the main systematic error. It is large for the retrieved temperature (between 5–10 K). Therefore, atmospheric pressure can not be derived from the retrieved temperature, and, then, in the altitude range where the line-of-sight tangent altitudes are retrieved, the retrieved trace gases profiles are found to be better represented on pressure levels than on altitude levels. The error analysis for the retrieved HOCl profile demonstrates that best results for inverting weak lines can be obtained by using narrow spectral windows. Future versions of the L2r algorithms will improve the temperature/pressure retrievals and also provide information in the upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric region (e.g., water vapor, ice content, O 3 ) and on stratospheric and mesospheric line-of-sight winds.

Description: Impact of changes in grain size and pore space on the hydraulic conductivity and spectral induced polarization response of sand Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1785-1794, 2011 Author(s): K. Koch, A. Kemna, J. Irving, and K. Holliger Understanding the influence of pore space characteristics on the hydraulic conductivity and spectral induced polarization (SIP) response is critical for establishing relationships between the electrical and hydrological properties of surficial unconsolidated sedimentary deposits, which host the bulk of the world's readily accessible groundwater resources. Here, we present the results of laboratory SIP measurements on industrial-grade, saturated quartz samples with granulometric characteristics ranging from fine sand to fine gravel. We altered the pore space characteristics by changing (i) the grain size spectra, (ii) the degree of compaction, and (iii) the level of sorting. We then examined how these changes affect the SIP response, the hydraulic conductivity, and the specific surface area of the considered samples. In general, the results indicate a clear connection between the SIP response and the granulometric as well as pore space characteristics. In particular, we observe a systematic correlation between the hydraulic conductivity and the relaxation time of the Cole-Cole model describing the observed SIP effect for the entire range of considered grain sizes. The results do, however, also indicate that the detailed nature of these relations depends strongly on variations in the pore space characteristics, such as, for example, the degree of compaction. This underlines the complexity of the origin of the SIP signal as well as the difficulty to relate it to a single structural factor of a studied sample, and hence raises some fundamental questions with regard to the practical use of SIP measurements as site- and/or sample-independent predictors of the hydraulic conductivity.

Description: WRF simulation of a precipitation event over the Tibetan Plateau, China – an assessment using remote sensing and ground observations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1795-1817, 2011 Author(s): F. Maussion, D. Scherer, R. Finkelnburg, J. Richters, W. Yang, and T. Yao Meteorological observations over the Tibetan Plateau (TiP) are scarce, and precipitation estimations over this remote region are difficult. The constantly improving capabilities of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models offer the opportunity to reduce this problem by providing precipitation fields and other meteorological variables of high spatial and temporal resolution. Longer time periods of years to decades can be simulated by NWP models by successive model runs of shorter periods, which can be described by the term "regional atmospheric reanalysis". In this paper, we assess the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models capacity in retrieving rain- and snowfall on the TiP in such a configuration using a nested approach: the simulations are conducted with three nested domains at spatial resolutions of 30, 10, and 2 km. A validation study is carried out for a one-month period with a special focus on one-week (22–28 October 2008), during which strong rain- and snowfall was observed on the TiP. The output of the model in each resolution is compared to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data set for precipitation and to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data set for snow extent. TRMM and WRF data are then compared to weather-station measurements. Our results suggest an overall improvement from WRF over TRMM with respect to weather-station measurements. Various configurations of the model with different nesting and forcing strategies, as well as physical parameterisation schemes are compared to propose a suitable design for a regional atmospheric reanalysis over the TiP. The WRF model showed good accuracy in simulating snow- and rainfall on the TiP for a one-month simulation period. Our study reveals that there is nothing like an optimal model strategy applicable for the high-altitude TiP, its fringing high-mountain areas of extremely complex topography and the low-altitude land and sea regions from which much of the precipitation on the TiP is originating. The choice of the physical parameterisation scheme will thus be always a compromise depending on the specific purpose of a model simulation. Our study demonstrates the high importance of orographic precipitation, but the problem of the orographic bias remains unsolved since reliable observational data are still missing. The results are relevant for anyone interested in carrying out a regional atmospheric reanalysis. Many hydrological analyses and applications like rainfall-runoff modelling or the analysis of flood events require precipitation rates at daily or even hourly intervals. Thus, our study offers a process-oriented alternative for retrieving precipitation fields of high spatio-temporal resolution in regions like the TiP, where other data sources are limited.

Description: Near infrared nadir sounding of vertical column densities: methodology and application to SCIAMACHY Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3685-3737, 2011 Author(s): S. Gimeno García, F. Schreier, G. Lichtenberg, and S. Slijkhuis Nadir observations with the shortwave infrared channels of SCIAMACHY onboard the ENVISAT satellite can be used to derive information on atmospheric gases such as CO, CH 4 , N 2 O, CO 2 , and H 2 O. For the operational level 1b–2 processing of SCIAMACHY data a new retrieval code BIRRA (Beer InfraRed Retrieval Algorithm) has been developed: BIRRA performs a nonlinear least squares fit of the measured radiance, where molecular concentration vertical profiles are scaled to fit the observed data. Here we present the forward modeling (radiative transfer) and inversion (least squares optimization) fundamentals of the code along with the further processing steps required to generate higher level products such as global distributions and time series. Moreover, various aspects of level 1 (observed spectra) and auxiliary input data relevant for successful retrievals are discussed. BIRRA is currently used for operational analysis of carbon monoxide vertical column densities from SCIAMACHY channel 8 observations, and is being prepared for methane retrievals using channel 6 spectra. A set of representative CO retrievals and first CH 4 results are presented to demonstrate BIRRA's capabilities.

Description: Volatilizable biogenic organic compounds (VBOCs) with two dimensional gas chromatography-time of flight mass spectrometry (GC × GC-TOFMS): sampling methods, VBOC complexity, and chromatographic retention data Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3647-3684, 2011 Author(s): J. F. Pankow, W. Luo, A. N. Melnychenko, K. C. Barsanti, L. M. Isabelle, C. Chen, A. B. Guenther, and T. N. Rosenstiel Two dimensional gas chromatography (GC × GC) with detection by time-of-flight mass spectrometry (TOFMS) was applied in the rapid analysis of air samples containing highly complex mixtures of volatilizable biogenic organic compounds (VBOCs). VBOC analytical methodologies are briefly reviewed, and optimal conditions are discussed for sampling with both adsorption/thermal desorption (ATD) cartridges and solid-phase microextraction (SPME) fibers. Air samples containing VBOC emissions from leaves of two tree species ( Cedrus atlantica and Calycolpus moritzianus ) were obtained by both ATD and SPME. The optimized gas chromatographic conditions utilized a 45 m, 0.25 mm I.D. low-polarity primary column (DB-VRX, 1.4 μm film) and a 1.5 m, 0.25 mm I.D. polar secondary column (Stabilwax® 0.25 μm film). Excellent separation was achieved in a 36 min temperature programmed GC × GC chromatogram. Thousands of VBOC peaks were present in the sample chromatograms; hundreds of tentative identifications by NIST mass spectral matching are provided. Very few of the tentatively identified compounds are currently available as authentic standards. Method detection limit values for a 5 l ATD sample were 3.5 pptv (10 ng m −3 ) for isoprene, methyl vinyl ketone, and methacrolein, and ~1.5 pptv (~10 ng m −3 ) for monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes. Kovats-type chromatographic retention index values on the primary column and relative retention time values on the secondary column are provided for 21 standard compounds and for 417 tentatively identified VBOCs. 19 of the 21 authentic standard compounds were found in one of the Cedrus atlantica SPME samples. In addition, easily quantifiable levels of at least 13 sesquiterpenes were found in an ATD sample obtained from a branch enclosure of Calycolpus moritzianus . Overall, the results obtained via GC × GC-TOFMS highlight an extreme, and largely uncharacterized diversity of VBOCs, consistent with the hypothesis that sesquiterpenes and other compounds beyond the current list of typically determined VBOC analytes may well be important contributors to global atmospheric levels of organic particulate matter.

Description: Spatio-temporal variations in soil moisture and physicochemical properties of a typical semiarid sand-meadow-desert landscape as influenced by land use Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1865-1877, 2011 Author(s): L. Duan, T. Liu, X. Wang, G. Wang, L. Ma, and Y. Luo A good understanding of the interrelations between land cover alteration and changes in hydrologic conditions (e.g., soil moisture) as well as soil physicochemical properties (e.g., fine soil particles and nutrients) is crucial for maintaining the fragile hydrologic and environmental conditions of semiarid land, such as the Horqin Sandy Land in China, but is lacking in existing literature. The objectives of this study were to examine: (1) spatio-temporal variations of soil moisture and physicochemical properties in semiarid land; and (2) how those variations are influenced by land cover alteration. Using the data collected in a 9.71 km 2 well-instrumented area of the Horqin Sandy Land, this study examined by visual examination and statistical analyses the spatio-temporal variations of soil moisture and physicochemical properties. The results indicated that for the study area, the soil moisture and physicochemical properties were dependent on local topography, soil texture, vegetation density, and human activity. Long-term reclamation for agriculture was found to reduce soil moisture by over 23 % and significantly (p-value 〈 0.05) lower the contents of soil organic matter, fine soil particles, and nutrients.

Description: Correcting orbital drift signal in the time series of AVHRR derived convective cloud fraction using rotated empirical orthogonal function Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3877-3890, 2011 Author(s): A. Devasthale, K. Karlsson, J. Quaas, and H. Grassl The AVHRRs instruments onboard the series of NOAA satellites offer the longest available meteorological data records from space. These satellites have drifted in orbit resulting in shifts in the local time sampling during the life span of sensors onboard. Depending on the amplitude of a diurnal cycle of the geophysical parameters derived, orbital drift may cause spurious trends in their time series. We investigate tropical deep convective clouds, which show pronounced diurnal cycle amplitude, to bracket an upper bound of the impact of orbital drift on their time series. We carry out a rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis and show that the REOFs are useful in delineating orbital drift signal and, more importantly, in correcting this signal in the time series of convective cloud amount. These results will help facilitate the derivation of homogenized data series of cloud amount from NOAA satellite sensors and ultimately analyzing trends from them. However, we suggest detailed comparison of various methods and their rigorous testing before applying final orbital drift corrections.

Description: Anatomy of extraordinary rainfall and flash flood in a Dutch lowland catchment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1991-2005, 2011 Author(s): C. C. Brauer, A. J. Teuling, A. Overeem, Y. van der Velde, P. Hazenberg, P. M. M. Warmerdam, and R. Uijlenhoet On 26 August 2010 the eastern part of The Netherlands and the bordering part of Germany were struck by a series of rainfall events lasting for more than a day. Over an area of 740 km 2 more than 120 mm of rainfall were observed in 24 h. This extreme event resulted in local flooding of city centres, highways and agricultural fields, and considerable financial loss. In this paper we report on the unprecedented flash flood triggered by this exceptionally heavy rainfall event in the 6.5 km 2 Hupsel Brook catchment, which has been the experimental watershed employed by Wageningen University since the 1960s. This study aims to improve our understanding of the dynamics of such lowland flash floods. We present a detailed hydrometeorological analysis of this extreme event, focusing on its synoptic meteorological characteristics, its space-time rainfall dynamics as observed with rain gauges, weather radar and a microwave link, as well as the measured soil moisture, groundwater and discharge response of the catchment. At the Hupsel Brook catchment 160 mm of rainfall was observed in 24 h, corresponding to an estimated return period of well over 1000 years. As a result, discharge at the catchment outlet increased from 4.4 × 10 −3 to nearly 5 m 3 s −1 . Within 7 h discharge rose from 5 × 10 −2 to 4.5 m 3 s −1 . The catchment response can be divided into four phases: (1) soil moisture reservoir filling, (2) groundwater response, (3) surface depression filling and surface runoff and (4) backwater feedback. The first 35 mm of rainfall were stored in the soil without a significant increase in discharge. Relatively dry initial conditions (in comparison to those for past discharge extremes) prevented an even faster and more extreme hydrological response.

Description: On the value of combined event runoff and tracer analysis to improve understanding of catchment functioning in a data-scarce semi-arid area Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 2007-2024, 2011 Author(s): M. Hrachowitz, R. Bohte, M. L. Mul, T. A. Bogaard, H. H. G. Savenije, and S. Uhlenbrook Hydrological processes in small catchments are not quite understood yet, which is true in particular for catchments in data scarce, semi-arid regions. This is in contrast with the need for a better understanding of water fluxes and the interactions between surface- and groundwater in order to facilitate sustainable water resources management in such environments, where both floods and droughts can result in severe crop loss. In this study, event runoff coefficient analysis and limited tracer data of four small, nested sub-catchments (0.4–25.3 km 2 ) in a data scarce, semi-arid region of Tanzania helped to characterize the distinct response of the study catchments and to gain insights into the dominant runoff processes. The estimated event runoff coefficients were very low and did not exceed 0.09. They were found to be significantly related to the 5-day antecedent precipitation totals as well as to base flow, indicating a close relation to changes in soil moisture and thus potential switches in runoff generation processes. The time scales of the "direct flow" reservoirs, used to compute the event runoff coefficients, were up to one order of magnitude reduced for extreme events, compared to "average" events, suggesting the activation of at least a third flow component, besides base- and direct flow, assumed to be infiltration overland flow. Analysis of multiple tracers highlighted the importance of pre-event water to total runoff, even during intense and high yield precipitation events. It further illustrated the distinct nature of the catchments, in particular with respect to the available water storage, which was suggested by different degrees of tracer damping in the individual streams. The use of multiple tracers subsequently allowed estimating uncertainties in hydrograph separations arising from the use of different tracers. The results highlight the presence of considerable uncertainties, emphasizing the need for multiple tracers in order to avoid misleading results. This study shows the value of hydrological data collection over one whole wet season using multi-tracers to improve the understanding of hydrological functioning and thus for water resources management in data scarce, semi-arid environments.

Description: Changes in land cover, rainfall and stream flow in Upper Gilgel Abbay catchment, Blue Nile basin – Ethiopia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1979-1989, 2011 Author(s): T. H. M. Rientjes, A. T. Haile, E. Kebede, C. M. M. Mannaerts, E. Habib, and T. S. Steenhuis In this study we evaluated changes in land cover and rainfall in the Upper Gilgel Abbay catchment in the Upper Blue Nile basin and how changes affected stream flow in terms of annual flow, high flows and low flows. Land cover change assessment was through classification analysis of remote sensing based land cover data while assessments on rainfall and stream flow data are by statistical analysis. Results of the supervised land cover classification analysis indicated that 50.9 % and 16.7 % of the catchment area was covered by forest in 1973 and 2001, respectively. This significant decrease in forest cover is mainly due to expansion of agricultural land. By use of a change detection procedure, three periods were identified for which changes in rainfall and stream flow were analyzed. Rainfall was analyzed at monthly base by use of the Mann-Kendall test statistic and results indicated a statistically significant, decreasing trend for most months of the year. However, for the wet season months of June, July and August rainfall has increased. In the period 1973–2005, the annual flow of the catchment decreased by 12.1 %. Low flow and high flow at daily base were analyzed by a low flow and a high flow index that is based on a 95 % and 5 % exceedance probability. Results of the low flow index indicated decreases of 18.1 % and 66.6 % for the periods 1982–2000 and 2001–2005 respectively. Results of high flows indicated an increase of 7.6 % and 46.6 % for the same periods. In this study it is concluded that over the period 1973–2005 stream flow has changed in the Gilgel Abbay catchment by changes in land cover and changes in rainfall.

Description: Sensitivity studies for a space-based methane lidar mission Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3545-3592, 2011 Author(s): C. Kiemle, M. Quatrevalet, G. Ehret, A. Amediek, A. Fix, and M. Wirth Methane is the third most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after water vapour and carbon dioxide. A major handicap to quantify the emissions at the Earth's surface in order to better understand biosphere-atmosphere exchange processes and potential climate feedbacks is the lack of accurate and global observations of methane. Space-based integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) lidar has potential to fill this gap, and a Methane Remote Lidar Mission (MERLIN) on a small satellite in Polar orbit was proposed by DLR and CNES in the frame of a German-French climate monitoring initiative. System simulations are used to identify key performance parameters and to find an advantageous instrument configuration, given the environmental, technological, and budget constraints. The sensitivity studies use representative averages of the atmospheric and surface state to estimate the measurement precision, i.e. the random uncertainty due to instrument noise. Key performance parameters for MERLIN are average laser power, telescope size, orbit height, surface reflectance, and detector noise. A modest-size lidar instrument with 0.45 W average laser power and 0.55 m telescope diameter on a 506 km orbit could provide 50-km averaged methane column measurement along the sub-satellite track with a precision of about 1 % over vegetation. The use of a methane absorption trough at 1.65 μm improves the near-surface measurement sensitivity and vastly relaxes the wavelength stability requirement that was identified as one of the major technological risks in the pre-phase A studies for A-SCOPE, a space-based IPDA lidar for carbon dioxide at the European Space Agency. Minimal humidity and temperature sensitivity at this wavelength position will enable accurate measurements in tropical wetlands, key regions with largely uncertain methane emissions. In contrast to actual passive remote sensors, measurements in Polar Regions will be possible and biases due to aerosol layers and thin ice clouds will be minimised.

Description: Information operator approach applied to the retrieval of the vertical distribution of atmospheric constituents from ground-based high-resolution FTIR measurements Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3739-3785, 2011 Author(s): C. Senten, M. De Mazière, G. Vanhaelewyn, and C. Vigouroux The analysis of high spectral resolution Fourier Transform infrared (FTIR) solar absorption spectra is an important issue in remote sensing. If this is done carefully, one can obtain information, not only about the total column abundances, but also about the vertical distribution of various constituents in the atmosphere. This work introduces the application of the information operator approach for extracting vertical profile information from ground-based FTIR measurements. The algorithm is implemented and tested within the well-known retrieval code SFIT2, adapting the optimal estimation method such as to take into account only the significant contributions to the solution. In particular, we demonstrate the feasibility of the method in an application to ground-based FTIR spectra taken in the frame of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) at Ile de La Réunion (21° S, 55° E). A thorough comparison is made between the original optimal estimation method and this alternative retrieval algorithm, regarding information content, retrieval robustness and corresponding full error budget evaluation for the target species ozone (O 3 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), methane (CH 4 ), and carbon monoxide (CO). For O 3 and CH 4 , a comparison with the Tikhonov regularization method has also been made. It is shown that the information operator approach performs well and in most cases yields both a better accuracy and stability than the optimal estimation method. Additionally, the information operator approach has the advantage of being less sensitive to the choice of a priori information. The Tikhonov regularization results seem to be situated between both methods' results, as to profile retrievals, error budgets and column stability.

Description: Opportunistic validation of sulfur dioxide in the Sarychev Peak volcanic eruption cloud Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3861-3875, 2011 Author(s): S. A. Carn and T. M. Lopez We report attempted validation of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) retrievals in the stratospheric volcanic cloud from Sarychev Peak (Kurile Islands) in June 2009, through opportunistic deployment of a ground-based ultraviolet (UV) spectrometer (FLYSPEC) as the volcanic cloud drifted over Central Alaska. The volcanic cloud altitude (~12–14 km) was constrained using coincident CALIPSO lidar observations. By invoking some assumptions about the spatial distribution of SO 2 , we derive averages of FLYSPEC vertical SO 2 columns for comparison with OMI SO 2 measurements. Despite limited data, we find minimum OMI-FLYSPEC differences of ~5–6 % which support the validity of the operational OMI SO 2 algorithm. These measurements represent the first attempt to validate SO 2 in a stratospheric volcanic cloud using a mobile ground-based instrument, and demonstrate the need for a network of rapidly deployable instruments for validation of space-based volcanic SO 2 measurements.

Description: Inversion of tropospheric profiles of aerosol extinction and HCHO and NO 2 mixing ratios from MAX-DOAS observations in Milano during the summer of 2003 and comparison with independent data sets Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3891-3964, 2011 Author(s): T. Wagner, S. Beirle, T. Brauers, T. Deutschmann, U. Frieß, C. Hak, J. D. Halla, K. P. Heue, W. Junkermann, X. Li, U. Platt, and I. Pundt-Gruber We present aerosol and trace gas profiles derived from MAX-DOAS observations. Our inversion scheme is based on simple profile parameterisations used as input for an atmospheric radiative transfer model (forward model). From a least squares fit of the forward model to the MAX-DOAS measurements, two profile parameters are retrieved including integrated quantities (aerosol optical depth or trace gas vertical column density), and parameters describing the height and shape of the respective profiles. From these results, the aerosol extinction and trace gas mixing ratios can also be calculated. We apply the profile inversion to MAX-DOAS observations during a measurement campaign in Milano, Italy, September 2003, which allowed simultaneous observations from three telescopes (directed to north, west, south). Profile inversions for aerosols and trace gases were possible on 23 days. Especially in the middle of the campaign (17–20 September 2003), enhanced values of aerosol optical depth and NO 2 and HCHO mixing ratios were found. The retrieved layer heights were typically similar for HCHO and aerosols. For NO 2 , lower layer heights were found, which increased during the day. The MAX-DOAS inversion results are compared to independent measurements: (1) aerosol optical depth measured at an AERONET station at Ispra; (2) near-surface NO 2 and HCHO (formaldehyde) mixing ratios measured by long path DOAS and Hantzsch instruments at Bresso; (3) vertical profiles of HCHO and aerosols measured by an ultra light aircraft. Depending on the viewing direction, the aerosol optical depths from MAX-DOAS are either smaller or larger than those from AERONET observations. Similar comparison results are found for the MAX-DOAS NO 2 mixing ratios versus long path DOAS measurements. In contrast, the MAX-DOAS HCHO mixing ratios are generally higher than those from long path DOAS or Hantzsch instruments. The comparison of the HCHO and aerosol profiles from the aircraft showed reasonable agreement with the respective MAX-DOAS layer heights. From the comparison of the results for the different telescopes, it was possible to investigate the internal consistency of the MAX-DOAS observations. As part of our study, a cloud classification algorithm was developed (based on the MAX-DOAS zenith viewing directions), and the effects of clouds on the profile inversion were investigated. Different effects of clouds on aerosols and trace gas retrievals were found: while the aerosol optical depth is systematically underestimated and the HCHO mixing ratio is systematically overestimated under cloudy conditions, the NO 2 mixing ratios are only slightly affected. These findings are in basic agreement with radiative transfer simulations.

Description: Hydropedological insights when considering catchment classification Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1909-1919, 2011 Author(s): J. Bouma, P. Droogers, M. P. W. Sonneveld, C. J. Ritsema, J. E. Hunink, W. W. Immerzeel, and S. Kauffman Soil classification systems are analysed to explore the potential of developing classification systems for catchments. Soil classifications are useful to create systematic order in the overwhelming quantity of different soils in the world and to extrapolate data available for a given soil type to soils elsewhere with identical classifications. This principle also applies to catchments. However, to be useful, soil classifications have to be based on permanent characteristics as formed by the soil forming factors over often very long periods of time. When defining permanent catchment characteristics, discharge data would therefore appear to be less suitable. But permanent soil characteristics do not necessarily match with characteristics and parameters needed for functional soil characterization focusing, for example, on catchment hydrology. Hydropedology has made contributions towards the required functional characterization of soils as is illustrated for three recent hydrological catchment studies. However, much still needs to be learned about the physical behaviour of anisotropic, heterogeneous soils with varying soil structures during the year and about spatial and temporal variability. The suggestion is made therefore to first focus on improving simulation of catchment hydrology, possibly incorporating hydropedological expertise, before embarking on a catchment classification effort which involves major input of time and involves the risk of distraction. In doing so, we suggest to also define other characteristics for catchment performance than the traditionally measured discharge rates. Such characteristics may well be derived from societal issues being studied, as is illustrated for the Green Water Credits program.

Description: Modeling the ascent of sounding balloons: derivation of the vertical air motion Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3965-4012, 2011 Author(s): A. Gallice, F. G. Wienhold, C. R. Hoyle, F. Immler, and T. Peter A new model to describe the ascent of sounding balloons in the troposphere and lower stratosphere (up to ~30–35 km altitude) is presented. Contrary to previous models, detailed account is taken of both the variation of the drag coefficient with altitude and the heat imbalance between the balloon and the atmosphere. To compensate for the lack of data on the drag coefficient of sounding balloons, a reference curve for the relationship between drag coefficient and Reynolds number is derived from a dataset of flights launched during the Lindenberg Upper Air Methods Intercomparisons (LUAMI) campaign. The transfer of heat from the surrounding air into the balloon is accounted for by solving the radial heat diffusion equation inside the balloon. The potential applications of the model include the forecast of the trajectory of sounding balloons, which can be used to increase the accuracy of the match technique, and the derivation of the air vertical velocity. The latter is obtained by subtracting the ascent rate of the balloon in still air calculated by the model from the actual ascent rate. This technique is shown to provide an approximation for the vertical air motion with an uncertainty error of 0.5 m s −1 in the troposphere and 0.2 m s −1 in the stratosphere. An example of extraction of the air vertical velocity is provided in this paper. We show that the air vertical velocities derived from the balloon soundings in this paper are in general agreement with small-scale atmospheric velocity fluctuations related to gravity waves, mechanical turbulence, or other small-scale air motions measured during the SUCCESS campaign (Subsonic Aircraft: Contrail and Cloud Effects Special Study) in the orographically unperturbed mid-latitude middle troposphere.

Description: Quantifying spatial and temporal discharge dynamics of an event in a first order stream, using distributed temperature sensing Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1945-1957, 2011 Author(s): M. C. Westhoff, T. A. Bogaard, and H. H. G. Savenije Understanding the spatial distribution of discharge can be important for water quality and quantity modeling. Non-steady flood waves can, particularly as a result of short high intensity summer rainstorms, influence small headwater streams significantly. The aim of this paper is to quantify the spatial and temporal dynamics of stream flow in a headwater stream during a summer rainstorm. These dynamics include gains and losses of stream water, the effect of bypasses that become active and hyporheic exchange fluxes that may vary over time as a function of discharge. We use an advection-dispersion model coupled with an energy balance model to simulate in-stream water temperature, which we compare with high resolution temperature observations obtained with Distributed Temperature Sensing. This model was used as a learning tool to stepwise unravel the complex puzzle of in-stream processes subject to varying discharge. Hypotheses were tested and rejected, which led to more insight in the spatial and temporal dynamics in discharge and hyporheic exchange processes. We showed that, for the studied stream infiltration losses increase during a small rain event, while gains of water remained constant over time. We conclude that, eventually, part of the stream water bypassed the main channel during peak discharge. It also seems that hyporheic exchange varies with varying discharge in the first 250 m of the stream; while further downstream it remains constant. Because we relied on solar radiation as the main energy input, we were only able to apply this method during a small summer storm and low flow conditions. However, when additional (artificial) energy is available, the presented method is also applicable in larger streams, during higher flow conditions or longer storms.

Description: Trend analysis of extreme precipitation in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia with a case study of Debre Markos Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1937-1944, 2011 Author(s): H. Shang, J. Yan, M. Gebremichael, and S. M. Ayalew Understanding extreme precipitation is very important for Ethiopia, which is heavily dependent on low-productivity rainfed agriculture but lacks structural and non-structural water regulating and storage mechanisms. There has been an increasing concern about whether there is an increasing trend in extreme precipitation as the climate changes. Existing analysis of this region has been descriptive, without taking advantage of the advances in extreme value modeling. After reviewing the statistical methodology on extremes, this paper presents an analysis based on the generalized extreme value modeling with daily time series of precipitation records at Debre Markos in the Northwestern Highlands of Ethiopia. We found no strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis that there is no increasing trend in extreme precipitation at this location.

Description: A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 2025-2038, 2011 Author(s): D. Anghileri, F. Pianosi, and R. Soncini-Sessa While quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on hydrology at the basin scale is quite addressed in the literature, extension of quantitative analysis to impact on the ecological, economic and social sphere is still limited, although well recognized as a key issue to support water resource planning and promote public participation. In this paper we propose a framework for assessing climate change impact on water-related activities at the basin scale. The specific features of our approach are that: (i) the impact quantification is based on a set of performance indicators defined together with the stakeholders, thus explicitly taking into account the water-users preferences; (ii) the management policies are obtained by optimal control techniques, linking stakeholder expectations and decision-making; (iii) the multi-objective nature of the management problem is fully preserved by simulating a set of Pareto-optimal management policies, which allows for evaluating not only variations in the indicator values but also tradeoffs among conflicting objectives. The framework is demonstrated by application to a real world case study, Lake Como basin (Italy). We show that the most conflicting water-related activities within the basin (i.e. hydropower production and agriculture) are likely to be negatively impacted by climate change. We discuss the robustness of the estimated impacts to the climate natural variability and the approximations in modeling the physical system and the socio-economic system, and perform an uncertainty analysis of several sources of uncertainty. We demonstrate that the contribution of natural climate uncertainty is rather remarkable and that, among different modelling uncertainty sources, the one from climate modeling is very significant.

Description: Macroinvertebrate community responses to a dewatering disturbance gradient in a restored stream Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1771-1783, 2011 Author(s): J. D. Muehlbauer, M. W. Doyle, and E. S. Bernhardt Dewatering disturbances are common in aquatic systems and represent a relatively untapped field of disturbance ecology, yet studying dewatering events along gradients in non-dichotomous (i.e. wet/dry) terms is often difficult. Because many stream restorations can essentially be perceived as planned hydrologic manipulations, such systems can make ideal test-cases for understanding processes of hydrological disturbance. In this study we used an experimental drawdown in a 440 ha stream/wetland restoration site to assess aquatic macroinvertebrate community responses to dewatering and subsequent rewetting. The geomorphic nature of the site and the design of the restoration allowed dewatering to occur predictably along a gradient and decoupled the hydrologic response from any geomorphic (i.e. habitat heterogeneity) effects. In the absence of such heterogeneous habitat refugia, reach-scale wetted perimeter and depth conditions exerted a strong control on community structure. The community exhibited an incremental response to dewatering severity over the course of this disturbance, which was made manifest not as a change in community means but as an increase in community variability, or dispersion, at each site. The dewatering also affected inter-species abundance and distributional patterns, as dewatering and rewetting promoted alternate species groups with divergent habitat tolerances. Finally, our results indicate that rapid rewetting – analogous to a hurricane breaking a summer drought – may represent a recovery process rather than an additional disturbance and that such processes, even in newly restored systems, may be rapid.

Description: The geomorphic structure of the runoff peak Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1853-1863, 2011 Author(s): R. Rigon, P. D'Odorico, and G. Bertoldi This paper develops a theoretical framework to investigate the core dependence of peak flows on the geomorphic properties of river basins. Based on the theory of transport by travel times, and simple hydrodynamic characterization of floods, this new framework invokes the linearity and invariance of the hydrologic response to provide analytical and semi-analytical expressions for peak flow, time to peak, and area contributing to the peak runoff. These results are obtained for the case of constant-intensity hyetograph using the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves to estimate extreme flow values as a function of the rainfall return period. Results show that, with constant-intensity hyetographs, the time-to-peak is greater than rainfall duration and usually shorter than the basin concentration time. Moreover, the critical storm duration is shown to be independent of rainfall return period as well as the area contributing to the flow peak. The same results are found when the effects of hydrodynamic dispersion are accounted for. Further, it is shown that, when the effects of hydrodynamic dispersion are negligible, the basin area contributing to the peak discharge does not depend on the channel velocity, but is a geomorphic propriety of the basin. As an example this framework is applied to three watersheds. In particular, the runoff peak, the critical rainfall durations and the time to peak are calculated for all links within a network to assess how they increase with basin area.

Description: Downscaling of surface moisture flux and precipitation in the Ebro Valley (Spain) using analogues and analogues followed by random forests and multiple linear regression Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1895-1907, 2011 Author(s): G. Ibarra-Berastegi, J. Saénz, A. Ezcurra, A. Elías, J. Diaz Argandoña, and I. Errasti In this paper, reanalysis fields from the ECMWF have been statistically downscaled to predict from large-scale atmospheric fields, surface moisture flux and daily precipitation at two observatories (Zaragoza and Tortosa, Ebro Valley, Spain) during the 1961–2001 period. Three types of downscaling models have been built: (i) analogues, (ii) analogues followed by random forests and (iii) analogues followed by multiple linear regression. The inputs consist of data (predictor fields) taken from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The predicted fields are precipitation and surface moisture flux as measured at the two observatories. With the aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, the ERA-40 fields have been decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions. Available daily data has been divided into two parts: a training period used to find a group of about 300 analogues to build the downscaling model (1961–1996) and a test period (1997–2001), where models' performance has been assessed using independent data. In the case of surface moisture flux, the models based on analogues followed by random forests do not clearly outperform those built on analogues plus multiple linear regression, while simple averages calculated from the nearest analogues found in the training period, yielded only slightly worse results. In the case of precipitation, the three types of model performed equally. These results suggest that most of the models' downscaling capabilities can be attributed to the analogues-calculation stage.

Description: The influence of constrained fossil fuel emissions scenarios on climate and water resource projections Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1879-1893, 2011 Author(s): J. D. Ward, A. D. Werner, W. P. Nel, and S. Beecham Water resources planning requires long-term projections of the impact of climate change on freshwater resources. In addition to intrinsic uncertainty associated with the natural climate, projections of climate change are subject to the combined uncertainties associated with selection of emissions scenarios, GCM ensembles and downscaling techniques. In particular, unknown future greenhouse gas emissions contribute substantially to the overall uncertainty. We contend that a reduction in uncertainty is possible by refining emissions scenarios. We present a comprehensive review of the growing body of literature that challenges the assumptions underlying the high-growth emissions scenarios (widely used in climate change impact studies), and instead points to a peak and decline in fossil fuel production occurring in the 21st century. We find that the IPCC's new RCP 4.5 scenario (low-medium emissions), as well as the B1 and A1T (low emissions) marker scenarios from the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios are broadly consistent with the majority of recent fossil fuel production forecasts, whereas the medium to high emissions scenarios generally depend upon unrealistic assumptions of future fossil fuel production. We use a simple case study of projected climate change in 2070 for the Scott Creek catchment in South Australia to demonstrate that even with the current suite of climate models, by limiting projections to the B1 scenario, both the median change and the spread of model results are reduced relative to equivalent projections under an unrealistic high emissions scenario (A1FI).

Description: Data-driven catchment classification: application to the pub problem Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1921-1935, 2011 Author(s): M. Di Prinzio, A. Castellarin, and E. Toth A promising approach to catchment classification makes use of unsupervised neural networks (Self Organising Maps, SOM's), which organise input data through non-linear techniques depending on the intrinsic similarity of the data themselves. Our study considers ∼300 Italian catchments scattered nationwide, for which several descriptors of the streamflow regime and geomorphoclimatic characteristics are available. We compare a reference classification, identified by using indices of the streamflow regime as input to SOM, with four alternative classifications, which were identified on the basis of catchment descriptors that can be derived for ungauged basins. One alternative classification adopts the available catchment descriptors as input to SOM, the remaining classifications are identified by applying SOM to sets of derived variables obtained by applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) to the available catchment descriptors. The comparison is performed relative to a PUB problem, that is for predicting several streamflow indices in ungauged basins. We perform an extensive cross-validation to quantify nationwide the accuracy of predictions of mean annual runoff, mean annual flood, and flood quantiles associated with given exceedance probabilities. Results of the study indicate that performing PCA and, in particular, CCA on the available set of catchment descriptors before applying SOM significantly improves the effectiveness of SOM classifications by reducing the uncertainty of hydrological predictions in ungauged sites.

Description: Potential and limitations of the MAX-DOAS method to retrieve the vertical distribution of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 4013-4072, 2011 Author(s): T. Vlemmix, A. J. M. Piters, A. J. C. Berkhout, L. F. L. Gast, P. Wang, and P. F. Levelt Muliple Axis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) instruments can measure from the ground the absorption by nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) of scattered sunlight seen in multiple viewing directions. This paper studies the potential of this technique to derive the vertical distribution of NO 2 in the troposphere. Such profile information is essential in validation studies in which MAX-DOAS retrievals play a role. The retrieval algorithm used is based on a pre-calculated look-up table and assumes homogeneous mixing of aerosols and NO 2 in layers extending from the surface to a variable height. Two retrieval models are compared: one including and one excluding an elevated NO 2 layer at a fixed altitude in the free troposphere. An ensemble technique is applied to derive retrieved model uncertainties. Sensitivity studies demonstrate that MAX-DOAS based retrievals can make a distinction between an NO 2 layer that extends from the surface to a certain height (having a constant mixing ratio, or a mixing ratio that decreases with altitude) and an elevated NO 2 layer. The height of the elevated NO 2 layer can only be retrieved accurately when the aerosol extinction profile is known and the measurement noise is low. The uncertainty in this elevated NO 2 layer height provides the main source of uncertainty in the retrieval of the free tropospheric contribution to the tropospheric NO 2 column. A comparison was performed with independent data, based on observations done at the CINDI campaign, held in the Netherlands in 2009. Comparison with lidar partial tropospheric NO 2 columns showed a correlation of 0.78, and an average difference of 0.1× 10 15 molec cm −2 . The diurnal evolution of the NO 2 volume mixing ratio measured by in-situ monitors at the surface and averaged over five days with cloud-free mornings, compares quite well to the MAX-DOAS retrieval: a correlation was found of 0.8, and an average difference of 0.2 ppb.

Description: Water isotopic ratios from a continuously melted ice core sample Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 4073-4104, 2011 Author(s): V. Gkinis, T. J. Popp, T. Blunier, M. Bigler, S. Schüpbach, and S. J. Johnsen A new technique for on-line high resolution isotopic analysis of liquid water, tailored for ice core studies is presented. We build an interface between an Infra Red Cavity Ring Down Spectrometer (IR-CRDS) and a Continuous Flow Analysis (CFA) system. The system offers the possibility to perform simultaneuous water isotopic analysis of δ 18 O and δD on a continuous stream of liquid water as generated from a continuously melted ice rod. Injection of sub μl amounts of liquid water is achieved by pumping sample through a fused silica capillary and instantaneously vaporizing it with 100 % efficiency in a home made oven at a temperature of 170 °C. A calibration procedure allows for proper reporting of the data on the VSMOW scale. We apply the necessary corrections based on the assessed performance of the system regarding instrumental drifts and dependance on humidity levels. The melt rates are monitored in order to assign a depth scale to the measured isotopic profiles. Application of spectral methods yields the combined uncertainty of the system at below 0.1 ‰ and 0.5 ‰ for δ 18 O and δD, respectively. This performance is comparable to that achieved with mass spectrometry. Dispersion of the sample in the transfer lines limits the resolution of the technique. In this work we investigate and assess these dispersion effects. By using an optimal filtering method we show how the measured profiles can be corrected for the smoothing effects resulting from the sample dispersion. Considering the significant advantages the technique offers, i.e. simultaneuous measurement of δ 18 O and δD, potentially in combination with chemical components that are traditionally measured on CFA systems, notable reduction on analysis time and power consumption, we consider it as an alternative to traditional isotope ratio mass spectrometry with the possibility to be deployed for field ice core studies. We present data acquired in the framework of the NEEM deep ice core drilling project in Greenland, during the 2010 field season.

Description: A 3-D tomographic trajectory retrieval for the air-borne limb-imager GLORIA Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3805-3859, 2011 Author(s): J. Ungermann, J. Blank, J. Lotz, K. Leppkes, T. Guggenmoser, M. Kaufmann, P. Preusse, U. Naumann, and M. Riese Infrared limb sounding from aircraft can provide 2-D curtains of multiple trace gas species. However, conventional limb sounders view perpendicular to the aircraft axis and are unable to resolve the observed airmass along their line-of-sight. GLORIA (Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere) is a new remote sensing instrument able to adjust its horizontal view angle with respect to the aircraft flight direction from 45° to 135°. This will allow for tomographic measurements of mesoscale structures for a wide variety of atmospheric constituents. Many flights of the GLORIA instrument will not follow closed curves that allow measuring an airmass from all directions. Consequently, it is examined by means of simulations, what results can be expected from tomographic evaluation of measurements made during a straight flight. It is demonstrated that the achievable resolution and stability is enhanced compared to conventional retrievals. In a second step, it is shown that the incorporation of channels exhibiting different optical depth can greatly enhance the 3-D retrieval quality enabling the exploitation of previously unused spectral samples. A second problem for tomographic retrievals is that advection, which can be neglected for conventional retrievals, plays an important role for the time-scales involved in a tomographic measurement flight. This paper presents a method to diagnose the effect of a time-varying atmosphere on a 3-D retrieval and demonstrates an effective way to compensate for effects of advection by incorporating wind-fields from meteorological datasets as a priori information.

Description: River flow time series using least squares support vector machines Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1835-1852, 2011 Author(s): R. Samsudin, P. Saad, and A. Shabri This paper proposes a novel hybrid forecasting model known as GLSSVM, which combines the group method of data handling (GMDH) and the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM). The GMDH is used to determine the useful input variables which work as the time series forecasting for the LSSVM model. Monthly river flow data from two stations, the Selangor and Bernam rivers in Selangor state of Peninsular Malaysia were taken into consideration in the development of this hybrid model. The performance of this model was compared with the conventional artificial neural network (ANN) models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), GMDH and LSSVM models using the long term observations of monthly river flow discharge. The root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of correlation ( R ) are used to evaluate the models' performances. In both cases, the new hybrid model has been found to provide more accurate flow forecasts compared to the other models. The results of the comparison indicate that the new hybrid model is a useful tool and a promising new method for river flow forecasting.

Description: High-resolution air quality monitoring from space: a fast retrieval scheme for CO from hyperspectral infrared measurements Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 4, 3787-3803, 2011 Author(s): N. Smith, H.-L. Huang, E. Weisz, H. J. Annegarn, and R. B. Pierce The first results of the Fast Linear Inversion Trace gas System (FLITS) retrieval scheme are presented here for CO from IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) measurements using RAQMS (Real time Air Quality Modelling System) as atmospheric background. FLITS is a simple linear inversion scheme with a stable performance that retrieves total column CO concentrations (molec cm −2 ) at single field-of-view (FOV) irrespective of cloud cover. A case study is presented here for a biomass burning plume over the Pacific on 29 March 2010. For each FOV a single tropospheric CO density, vertically integrated over 200–800 hPa, is retrieved with 12 channels in the spectral range 2050–2225 cm −1 . Despite variations in cloud cover and temperature, the degrees of freedom for signal (DFS) of the solution ranges between 0.8 and 0.95. In addition, the retrieval error is at least half the background error of 10 %, with dominant contribution from uncertainty in the measurement and temperature. With its stability and processing speed, FLITS meet two of the key requirements for operational processing. We conclude that the linear combination of space-borne measurements with a chemical transport model in the FLITS retrieval scheme holds potential for real-time air quality monitoring and evaluation of pollutant transport at high spatial resolution.

Description: Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1819-1833, 2011 Author(s): M. Renner and C. Bernhofer Recently, climatological studies report observational evidence of changes in the timing of the seasons, such as earlier timing of the annual cycle of surface temperature, earlier snow melt and earlier onset of the phenological spring season. Also hydrological studies report earlier timing and changes in monthly streamflows. From a water resources management perspective, there is a need to quantitatively describe the variability in the timing of hydrological regimes and to understand how climatic changes control the seasonal water budget of river basins. Here, the timing of hydrological regimes from 1930–2009 was investigated in a network of 27 river gauges in Saxony/Germany through a timing measure derived by harmonic function approximation of annual periods of runoff ratio series. The timing measure proofed to be robust and equally applicable to both mainly pluvial river basins and snow melt dominated regimes. We found that the timing of runoff ratio is highly variable, but markedly coherent across the basins analysed. Differences in average timing are largely explained by basin elevation. Also the magnitude of low frequent changes in the seasonal timing of streamflow and the sensitivity to the changes in the timing of temperature increase with basin elevation. This sensitivity is in turn related to snow storage and release, whereby snow cover dynamics in late winter explain a large part of the low- and high-frequency variability. A trend analysis based on cumulative anomalies revealed a common structural break around the year 1988. While the timing of temperature shifted earlier by 4 days, accompanied by a temperature increase of 1 K, the timing of runoff ratio within higher basins shifted towards occurring earlier about 1 to 3 weeks. This accelerated and distinct change indicates, that impacts of climate change on the water cycle may be strongest in higher, snow melt dominated basins.