ALBERT

All Library Books, journals and Electronic Records Telegrafenberg

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: In this paper, the existence (invariance) and stability (locally and globally) of relay interlayer synchronisation (RIS) are investigated in a chain of multiplex networks. The local dynamics of the nodes in the symmetric positions layers on both sides of the non-identical middlemost layer(s) are identical. The local and global stability conditions for this synchronisation state are analytically derived based on the master stability function approach and by constructing a suitable Lyapunov function, respectively. We propose an appropriate demultiplexing process for the existence of the RIS state. Then the variational equation transverse to the RIS manifold for demultiplexed networks is derived. In numerical simulations, the impact of interlayer and intralayer coupling strengths, variations of the system parameter in the relay layers and demultiplexing on the emergence of RIS in triplex and pentaplex networks are explored. Interestingly, in this multiplex network, enhancement of RIS is observed when a type of impurity via parameter mismatch in the local dynamics of the nodes is introduced in the middlemost layer. A common time-lag with small amplitude shift between the symmetric positions and central layers plays an important role for the enhancing of relay interlayer synchrony. This analysis improves our understanding of synchronisation states in multiplex networks with nonidentical layers.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: City-level CO2 emissions inventories are foundational for supporting the EU’s decarbonization goals. Inventories are essential for priority setting and for estimating impacts from the decarbonization transition. Here we present a new CO2 emissions inventory for 116,572 municipal and local government units in Europe. The inventory spatially disaggregates the national reported emissions, using 9 spatialization methods to distribute the 167 line items detailed in the UN's Common Reporting Framework. The novel contribution of this model is that results are provided per administrative jurisdiction at multiple administrative levels using a new spatialization approach. All data from this study is available along with an interactive map of results at
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Macro-economic assessments of climate impacts lack an analysis of the distribution of daily rainfall, which can resolve both complex societal impact channels and anthropogenically forced changes. Here, using a global panel of subnational economic output for 1,554 regions worldwide over the past 40 years, we show that economic growth rates are reduced by increases in the number of wet days and in extreme daily rainfall, in addition to responding nonlinearly to the total annual and to the standardized monthly deviations of rainfall. Furthermore, high-income nations and the services and manufacturing sectors are most strongly hindered by both measures of daily rainfall, complementing previous work that emphasized the beneficial effects of additional total annual rainfall in low-income, agriculturally dependent economies4,7. By assessing the distribution of rainfall at multiple timescales and the effects on different sectors, we uncover channels through which climatic conditions can affect the economy. These results suggest that anthropogenic intensification of daily rainfall extremes will have negative global economic consequences that require further assessment by those who wish to evaluate the costs of anthropogenic climate change.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: PowerDynamics.jl is a Julia package for time-domain modeling of power grids that is specifically designed for the stability analysis of systems with high shares of renewable energies. It makes use of Julia’s state-of-the-art differential equation solvers and is highly performant even for systems with a large number of components. Further, it is compatible with Julia’s machine learning libraries and allows for the utilization of these methods for dynam- ical optimization and parameter fitting. The package comes with a number of predefined models for synchronous machines, transmission lines and in- verter systems. However, the strict open-source approach and a macro-based user-interface also allows for an easy implementation of custom-built mod- els which makes it especially interesting for the design and testing of new control strategies for distributed generation units. This paper presents how the modeling concept, implemented component models and fault scenarios have been experimentally tested against measurements in the microgrid lab of TECNALIA.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: We investigate the response characteristics of a two-dimensional neuron model exposed to an externally applied extremely low frequency (ELF) sinusoidal electric field and the synchronization of neurons weakly coupled with gap junction. We find, by numerical simulations, that neurons can exhibit different spiking patterns, which are well observed in the structure of the recurrence plot (RP). We further study the synchronization between weakly coupled neurons in chaotic regimes under the influence of a weak ELF electric field. In general, detecting the phases of chaotic spiky signals is not easy by using standard methods. Recurrence analysis provides a reliable tool for defining phases even for noncoherent regimes or spiky signals. Recurrence-based synchronization analysis reveals that, even in the range of weak coupling, phase synchronization of the coupled neurons occurs and, by adding an ELF electric field, this synchronization increases depending on the amplitude of the externally applied ELF electric field. We further suggest a novel measure for RP-based phase synchronization analysis, which better takes into account the probabilities of recurrences.
    Description: We investigate the response characteristics of a two-dimensional neuron model exposed to an externally applied extremely low frequency (ELF) sinusoidal electric field and the synchronization of neurons weakly coupled with gap junction. We find, by numerical simulations, that neurons can exhibit different spiking patterns, which are well observed in the structure of the recurrence plot (RP). We further study the synchronization between weakly coupled neurons in chaotic regimes under the influence of a weak ELF electric field. In general, detecting the phases of chaotic spiky signals is not easy by using standard methods. Recurrence analysis provides a reliable tool for defining phases even for noncoherent regimes or spiky signals. Recurrence-based synchronization analysis reveals that, even in the range of weak coupling, phase synchronization of the coupled neurons occurs and, by adding an ELF electric field, this synchronization increases depending on the amplitude of the externally applied ELF electric field. We further suggest a novel measure for RP-based phase synchronization analysis, which better takes into account the probabilities of recurrences
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The data file `CENOGRID_Loess_20.txt` contains the astronomically tuned deep-sea benthic foraminifer carbon (δ¹³C) and oxygen (δ¹⁸O) isotope reference records uniformly covering the entire Cenozoic. The first column is the tuned age in Ma, the second column the δ¹³C, and the third column the δ¹⁸O record. The original calculations were performed using the CRP Toolbox for MATLAB. In order to avoid installing the toolbox and for better performance, the functions for calculating RP and RQA were here reimplemented, providing identical result. To reproduce the RPs in Fig. 2, use the script `perform_rp.m`, for reproducing the determinism values and upper confidence bounds, use the script `perform_rqa.m`.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/other
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Agricultural performance is influenced by environmental conditions, management decisions and economic circumstances. It is important to quantify their respective contribution to allow for detecting major hazards to production, projecting future yields under climate change and deriving adaptation options. For this purpose, time series of agricultural yields with high spatial and long-term temporal resolution are a primary requisite. Here we present a data set of crop performance in France, one of Europe’s major crop producers. The data set comprises ten crops (barley, maize, oats, potatoes, rapeseed, sugarbeet, sunflower, durum wheat, soft wheat and wine) and covers the years 1900 to 2018. It contains harvested area, production and yield data for all 96 French départements (i.e. counties or NUTS3 level) with a total number of 375,264 data points. Entries until 1988 have been digitized manually from statistical yearbooks. The technical validation indicates a high consistency of the data set within itself and with external resources. The data set may contribute to an enhanced understanding of the manifold influences on agricultural performance.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 9
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    In:  Economics of Disasters and Climate Change
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: This article examines the effects of extreme weather events on internal migration in Mongolia. Our focus is on dzuds , extremely harsh winters characterized by very cold temperature, snowfall anomalies, and/or storms causing very high livestock mortality. We exploit exogenous variation in the intensity of extreme winter events across time and space to identify their causal impacts on permanent domestic migration. Our database is a time series of migration and population data at provincial and district level from official population registries, spanning the 1992-2018 period. Results obtained with a two-way fixed effects panel estimator show that extreme winter events cause significant and sizeable permanent out-migration from affected provinces for up to two years after an event. These effects are confirmed when considering net change rates in the overall population at the district level. The occurrence of extreme winter events is also a strong predictor for declines in the local population of pastoralist households, the socio-economic group most affected by those events. This suggests that the abandonment of pastoralist livelihoods is an important channel through which climate affects within-country migration.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Background: Women in rural Bangladesh face multiple, inter-related challenges including food insecurity, malnutrition, and low levels of empowerment. We aimed to investigate the pathway towards empowerment experienced by women participating in a three-year nutrition-sensitive homestead food production (HFP) program, which was evaluated through the Food and Agricultural Approaches to Reducing Malnutrition (FAARM) cluster-randomized controlled trial. Methods: We conducted 44 in-depth interviews and 12 focus group discussions with men and women in both intervention and control communities of the FAARM study site in rural, north-eastern Bangladesh. Using a modified grounded theory approach to data collection and analysis, we developed a framework to explain the pathway towards empowerment among HFP program participants. Results: The analysis and resulting framework identified seven steps towards empowerment: 1) receiving training and materials; 2) establishing home gardens and rearing poultry; 3) experiencing initial success with food production; 4) generating social or financial resources; 5) expanding agency in household decision-making; 6) producing renewable resources (e.g. farm produce) and social resources; and 7) sustaining empowerment. The most meaningful improvements in empowerment occurred among participants who were able to produce food beyond what was needed for household consumption and were able to successfully leverage these surplus resources to gain higher bargaining power in their household. Additionally, women used negotiation skills with their husbands, fostered social support networks with other women, and developed increased self-efficacy and motivation. Meanwhile, the least empowered participants lacked support in critical areas, such as support from their spouses, social support networks, or sufficient space or time to produce enough food to meaningfully increase their contribution and therefore bargaining power within their household. Conclusions: This study developed a novel framework to describe a pathway to empowerment among female participants in an HFP intervention, as implemented in the FAARM trial. These results have implications for the design of future nutrition-sensitive agriculture interventions, which should prioritize opportunities to increase empowerment and mitigate the barriers identified in our study. Trial registration: FAARM is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02505711).
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 11
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    In:  Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Urban growth can take different forms, such as infill, expansion, and leapfrog development. Here we focus on leapfrogging, which is characterised as new urban development bypassing vacant land. Analysing a sample of 100 global locations, we study the probability that land cover is converted from non-urban to urban as a function of the minimum distance to existing urban cells. The probability decreases with the distance but in many of the considered real-world samples it increases again just before the maximum possible distance. Comparing these empirical findings with numerical ones from a gravitational model, we discover that the characteristic increase can be found in both. Our results indicate that the conversion probability as a function of the distance to urban land cover includes three urban growth domains. (i) Expansion of existing settlements, (ii) discontinuous development of coincidental new settlements rather close to existing ones, and (iii) leapfrogging of new settlements far away from existing ones. We conclude that gravitational effects can explain discontinuous development but leapfrogging can be attributed to a scarcity of developable land at long distances to settlements.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 12
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The ongoing transition to renewable energy supply comes with a restructuring of power grids, changing their effective interaction topologies, more and more strongly decentralizing them and substantially modifying their input, output, and response characteristics. All of these changes imply that power grids become increasingly affected by collective, nonlinear dynamic phenomena, structurally and dynamically more distributed and less predictable in space and time, more heterogeneous in its building blocks, and as a consequence less centrally controllable. Here cornerstone aspects of data-driven and mathematical modeling of collective dynamical phenomena emerging in real and model power grid networks by combining theories from nonlinear dynamics, stochastic processes and statistical physics, anomalous statistics, optimization, and graph theory are reviewed. The mathematical background required for adequate modeling and analysis approaches is introduced, an overview of power system models is given, and a range of collective dynamical phenomena are focused on, including synchronization and phase locking, flow (re)routing, Braess’s paradox, geometric frustration, and spreading and localization of perturbations and cascading failures, as well as the nonequilibrium dynamics of power grids, where fluctuations play a pivotal role.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 13
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    In:  EPL (Europhysics Letters)
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Partial synchronization patterns play an important role in the functioning of neuronal networks, both in pathological and in healthy states. They include chimera states, which consist of spatially coexisting domains of coherent (synchronized) and incoherent (desynchronized) dynam- ics, and other complex patterns. In this perspective article we show that partial synchronization scenarios are governed by a delicate interplay of local dynamics and network topology. Our focus is in particular on applications of brain dynamics like unihemispheric sleep and epileptic seizure.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 14
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    In:  Resource and Energy Economics
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Electricity generation based on renewable energy (RE) sources such as wind and solar replace the most expensive generators that often rely on fossil fuels. In response to RE promotion, wholesale electricity prices and carbon emissions are therefore expected to decrease. In interconnected electricity systems, this so-called merit-order effect stimulates a change in electricity trade flows. Therefore, conventional generation and prices in neighboring countries are also likely to decrease. The impact of these trade reactions on carbon offsets is ambiguous and depends on installed generation and interconnector capacities. Moreover, the cross-border merit-order effect causes opposing effects on consumers and producers: generators’ profits decline, while consumers benefit from lower electricity costs and an increase in the consumer surplus. Using a rich data set of hourly technology-specific generation and wholesale market price data for ten central European countries, we estimate the domestic and cross-border impacts of German RE for the years 2015–2020. We find that German RE generation offset 79–113 MtCO per year. The major emission effect took place in Germany (64–99 MtCO). The average cost of emission offset of 212–321€/t were almost entirely borne by German market participants. Neighboring countries do not bear costs, but a significant shift from producer to consumer rents is observed.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text/html
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 15
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Almost half of the Burkinabe population is moderately or severely affected by food insecurity. With climate change, domestic food production may become more under pressure, further jeopardizing food security. In this study, we focus on the production of maize, sorghum and millet as staple cereal crops in Burkina Faso to assess food availability as one component of food security. Based on a statistical weather-driven crop model, we provide a within-season forecast of crop production 1 month before the harvest. Hindcast results from 1984 to 2018 produce an r2 of 0.95 in case of known harvest areas and an r2 of 0.88 when harvest areas are modelled instead. We compare actually supplied calories with those usually consumed from staple crops, allowing us to provide early information on shortages in domestic cereal production on the national level. Despite the—on average—sufficient domestic cereal production from maize, sorghum and millet, a considerable level of food insecurity prevails for large parts of the population. We suggest to consider such forecasts as an early warning signal for shortages in domestic staple crop production and encourage a comprehensive assessment of all dimensions of food security to rapidly develop counteractions for looming food crises.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 16
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Avoiding catastrophic climate change requires rapid decarbonization and improved ecosystem stewardship at a planetary scale. The carbon released through the burning of fossil fuels would take millennia to regenerate on Earth. Though the timeframe of carbon recovery for ecosystems such as peatlands, mangroves and old-growth forests is shorter (centuries), this timeframe still exceeds the time we have remaining to avoid the worst impacts of global warming. There are some natural places that we cannot afford to lose due to their irreplaceable carbon reserves. Here we map ‘irrecoverable carbon’ globally to identify ecosystem carbon that remains within human purview to manage and, if lost, could not be recovered by mid-century, by when we need to reach net-zero emissions to avoid the worst climate impacts. Since 2010, agriculture, logging and wildfire have caused emissions of at least 4.0 Gt of irrecoverable carbon. The world’s remaining 139.1 ± 443.6 Gt of irrecoverable carbon faces risks from land-use conversion and climate change. These risks can be reduced through proactive protection and adaptive management. Currently, 23.0% of irrecoverable carbon is within protected areas and 33.6% is managed by Indigenous peoples and local communities. Half of Earth’s irrecoverable carbon is concentrated on just 3.3% of its land, highlighting opportunities for targeted efforts to increase global climate security.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 17
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: For light-duty vehicles (LDVs), alternative powertrains and liquid fuels based on renewable electricity are competing options considered by policymakers and stakeholders for achieving necessary CO2 emission reductions in the transport sector. While the urgency of climate change and the need to reach mitigation targets are well understood, system-wide implications along other sustainability dimensions need further exploration. We integrate a detailed transport system model into an integrated assessment framework and couple it with prospective life cycle impact analysis. This allows to assess different technological pathways of the European LDV fleet until 2050 for a comprehensive set of environmental and resource depletion indicators. Results indicate that greenhouse gas emissions drop significantly in all mitigation scenarios. However, impacts increase in several non-climate change impact categories even with fully renewable electricity supply. Additional impacts arise from the production of battery and fuel-cell components, and from a significant rise in electricity demand, most prominently for synthetic fuels. We consequently find that changes in mobility life-styles and in the relevant industrial processes are paramount to reduce environmental impacts from a climate-friendly LDV fleet across all categories.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 18
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: This repository contains the source files for processing the datasets, running the analysis, and producing the plots for the following publication: Niklas H. Kitzmann, Pawel Romanczuk, Nico Wunderling and Jonathan F. Donges (2022). Detecting contagious spreading of urban innovations on the global city network. European Physical Journal Special Topics. DOI:10.1140/epjs/s11734-022-00470-4
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/other
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 19
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The tightened climate mitigation targets of the EU green deal raise an important question: Which strategy should be used to achieve carbon emissions net neutrality? This study explores stakeholder-designed narratives of the future energy system development within the deep decarbonization context. European carbon net-neutrality goals are put under test in a model comparison exercise using state of the art Energy-Environment-Economy (E3) models: ETM-UCL, PRIMES and REMIND. Results show that while achieving the transition to carbon neutrality by mid-century is feasible under quite different future energy systems, some robust commonalities emerge. Electrification of end use sectors combined with large-scale expansion of renewable energy is a no-regret decision for all strategies; Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) plays an important role for achieving net-neutral targets under all scenarios, but is most relevant when demand-side changes are limited; hydrogen and synthetic fuels can be a relevant mitigation option for mid-century mitigation in hard-to-abate sectors; energy efficiency can reduce the supply system strain. Finally, high carbon prices (300–900€/tCO2) are needed under all strategies in order to achieve carbon net neutrality in 2050.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 20
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Climate change increasingly affects agricultural systems, making it necessary for farmers to adapt to changing climatic conditions. An important element shaping farmers’ adaptation decisions and their vulnerability is their respective land tenure system. Especially land tenure security can strongly influence farmers’ incentives for adapting to climate change. We review the literature to understand to what extent tenure security and other land tenure characteristics affect farmers’ ability to withstand climate change and how climate change is operationalised. 106 mostly peer-reviewed studies are examined using thematic network analysis and a network of interactions between land tenure and climate change in farming contexts is devised. The results show that three main interactions link land tenure systems and climate change with regard to agricultural livelihoods: (i) land tenure characteristics influence farmers’ adaptation uptake, type and intensity, (ii) certain tenure settings contribute to vulnerability of different socio-demographic groups in agricultural systems, e.g. women, migrants and indigenous communities, and (iii) the perception of tenure security itself is affected by climate change. Yet, the concept of tenure security is poorly defined in most studies, at times resulting in misleading conclusions and leaving important research gaps with regard to optimal land tenure incentives for farmers’ adaptation response. Climate change is often simplistically integrated into the assessments, without validation and analysis of longer term trends. None of the studies reviewed provides a comprehensive and systematic treatment of the multiple dimensions linking climate change and land tenure. Further exploration and empirical validation of the connection between land tenure and climate change in agricultural systems is thus warranted. This should include a more critical engagement with the exigencies of climate change response for agricultural systems, such as the need for flexible approaches to deal with climatic uncertainty. The results of this review are relevant for informing adaptation policy, where sustainable land governance has an integral role to play. Designing smart land tenure interventions based on improved understanding of (local) interactions between land tenure and climate can support farmers in effectively addressing the adverse effects of climate change.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 21
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: This dataset contains PISM simulation results of the Antarctic Ice Sheet based on code release v1.0-paleo-ensemble (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3574033). PISM is the open-source Parallel Ice Sheet Model developed mainly at UAF, USA and PIK, Germany. See documentation in https://www.pism.io. These are additional netCDF data from the same ensemble simulations already stored in doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.909728. 1) 1000-year snapshots since 125000 years before present, of ice thickness, bed topography, change in bed topography, floating/grounded mask, surface elevation, basal melt rate and vertically averaged velocity magnitude (SIA+SSA) (16GB) 2) 5000-year snapshots since 125000 years before present, SSA velocity components in x and y direction (8GB)
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 22
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    In:  Ecological Economics
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: While the economic case for carbon pricing is compelling, public support for it remains low. Using a stated-choice experiment with a sample of 6000 German household heads, we examine how their fairness preferences influence support for carbon taxes under different revenue uses. We find that respondents who prefer green spending are more likely to support a carbon tax, but the support diminishes considerably for higher tax rates – in contrast to respondents who support social cushioning. When restricted to options for direct revenue redistribution, Germans prefer lump-sum payments over directing payments to the poorest or the most affected. Preferences over these options depend both on genuinely different concepts of fairness and economic circumstances. Our findings have implications for advancing carbon pricing, as its support can be increased substantially when designed according to citizens' fairness preferences.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 23
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: An equilibrium of a delay differential equation (DDE) is absolutely stable, if it is locally asymptotically stable for all delays. We present criteria for absolute stability of DDEs with discrete time-delays. In the case of a single delay, the absolute stability is shown to be equivalent to asymptotic stability for sufficiently large delays. Similarly, for multiple delays, the absolute stability is equivalent to asymptotic stability for hierarchically large delays. Additionally, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for a linear DDE to be hyperbolic for all delays. The latter conditions are crucial for determining whether a system can have stabilizing or destabilizing bifurcations by varying time delays.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 24
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Forests play a key role in a bio-based economy by providing renewable materials, mitigating climate change, and accommodating biodiversity. However, forests experience massive increases in stresses in their ecological and socioeconomic environments, threatening forest ecosystem services supply. Alleviating those stresses is hampered by conflicting and disconnected governance arrangements, competing interests and claims, and rapid changes in technology and social demands. Identifying which stresses threaten forest ecosystem services supply and which factors hamper their alleviation requires stakeholders' perceptions. Stakeholder-oriented stress tests for the supply of forest ecosystem services are therefore necessary but are not yet available. This perspective presents a roadmap to develop a stress test tailored to multiple stakeholders' needs and demands across spatial scales. We provide the Cascade and Resilience Rosetta, with accompanying performance- and resilience indicators, as tools to facilitate development of the stress test. The application of the stress test will facilitate the transition toward a bio-based economy in which healthy and diverse forests provide sustainable and resilient ecosystem services.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 25
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Human mobility is increasingly associated with environmental and climatic factors. One way to explore how mobility and the environment are linked is to review the research on different aspects of the topic. However, so many relevant articles are published that analysis of the literature using conventional techniques is becoming prohibitively arduous. To overcome this constraint, we have applied automated textual analysis. Using unsupervised topic modelling on 3,197 peer-reviewed articles on the nexus between mobility and the environment published over the last 30 years, we identify 37 major topics. Based on their language use, the topics were deeply branched into two categories of focus: Impact and Adaptation. The Impact theme further clustered into sub-themes on vulnerability and residential mobility while articles within the Adaptation theme clustered into governance, disaster management and farming. The analysis revealed opportunities for greater collaboration within environmental mobility research, particularly improved integration of adaptation and impact research. The topic analysis also revealed that, in the last 30 years, very little research appears to have been undertaken in migration destinations or on the fate of environmentally-influenced migrants during their migration process and after arriving in a new location. There are also research gaps in gender and Indigenous issues within the Impact theme, as well as on adaptive capacity and capacity-building.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 26
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Despite the development of sophisticated statistical and dynamical climate models, a relative long-term and reliable prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has remained a challenging problem. Toward achieving this goal, here we construct a series of dynamical and physical climate networks based on the global near-surface air temperature field. We show that some characteristics of the directed and weighted climate networks can serve as efficient long-term predictors for ISMR forecasting. The developed prediction method produces a forecasting skill of 0.54 (Pearson correlation) with a 5-month lead time by using the previous calendar year’s data. The skill of our ISMR forecast is better than that of operational forecasts models, which have, however, quite a short lead time. We discuss the underlying mechanism of our predictor and associate it with network–ENSO and ENSO–monsoon connections. Moreover, our approach allows predicting the all-India rainfall, as well as the rainfall different homogeneous Indian regions, which is crucial for agriculture in India. We reveal that global warming affects the climate network by enhancing cross-equatorial teleconnections between the southwest Atlantic, the western part of the Indian Ocean, and the North Asia–Pacific region, with significant impacts on the precipitation in India. A stronger connection through the chain of the main atmospheric circulations patterns benefits the prediction of the amount of rainfall. We uncover a hotspot area in the midlatitude South Atlantic, which is the basis for our predictor, the southwest Atlantic subtropical index (SWAS index). Remarkably, the significant warming trend in this area yields an improvement of the prediction skill.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 27
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: COVID-19 has revealed how challenging it is to manage global, systemic and compounding crises. Like COVID-19, climate change impacts, and maladaptive responses to them, have potential to disrupt societies at multiple scales via networks of trade, finance, mobility and communication, and to impact hardest on the most vulnerable. However, these complex systems can also facilitate resilience if managed effectively. This review aims to distil lessons related to the transboundary management of systemic risks from the COVID-19 experience, to inform climate change policy and resilience building. Evidence from diverse fields is synthesised to illustrate the nature of systemic risks and our evolving understanding of resilience. We describe research methods that aim to capture systemic complexity to inform better management practices and increase resilience to crises. Finally, we recommend specific, practical actions for improving transboundary climate risk management and resilience building. These include mapping the direct, cross-border and cross-sectoral impacts of potential climate extremes, adopting adaptive risk management strategies that embrace heterogenous decision-making and uncertainty, and taking a broader approach to resilience which elevates human wellbeing, including societal and ecological resilience.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 28
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    In:  IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems I: Regular Papers
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: This paper designs an event-triggering based communication strategy for the global attitude synchronization of a network of rigid bodies. To overcome the topological constraint on the manifold SO(3), the quaternion-based hybrid control strategy is designed using a binary logic variable, relying on the relative measurements of adjacent rigid bodies, to determine the torque orientation. The Zeno-free distributed event-triggering strategies (ETSs) are designed combining with the reset of the binary logic variable to generate discrete communication instants, where only the corresponding parts of the control inputs are updated at those discrete instants. By assuming perfect knowledge of the rigid bodies' dynamics and considering uncertainties and/or exogenous disturbances simultaneously, nominal and robust cases are analyzed to ensure the global attitude synchronization, respectively. The effectiveness of the main results is demonstrated by considering the attitude synchronization of six miniature quadrotor prototypes.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 29
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: This collection provides a contemporary excerpt of “Cities as complex systems”. The contributions have been submitted between April and October 2020. We briefly discuss example papers addressing the themes “urban scaling”, “urban mobility”, “flows in cities”, “spatial analysis”, “information technology and cities”, and “cities in time”. After motivating the intersection of cities and complexity, we provide an introduction and additional thoughts on urban scaling.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 30
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    In:  IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems I: Regular Papers
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: With the prevalence of COVID-19, the modeling of epidemic propagation and its analyses have played a significant role in controlling epidemics. However, individual behaviors, in particular the self-protection and migration, which have a strong influence on epidemic propagation, were always neglected in previous studies. In this paper, we mainly propose two models from the individual and population perspectives. In the first individual model, we introduce the individual protection degree that effectively suppresses the epidemic level as a stochastic variable to the SIRS model. In the alternative population model, an open Markov queueing network is constructed to investigate the individual number of each epidemic state, and we present an evolving population network via the migration of people. Besides, stochastic methods are applied to analyze both models. In various simulations, the infected probability, the number of individuals in each state and its limited distribution are demonstrated.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 31
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: This article studies the fixed-time tracking consensus of second-order nonlinear multi-agent systems with disturbance. To make the fixed-time tracking consensus, a consensus protocol based on the integral sliding mode surface is proposed, which can ensure the adjacent agents remain within a limited communication range in the communication process. By adopting Lyapunov stability theory and matrix theory, sufficient conditions for the fixed-time tracking consensus are given, and a bound of the settling time is obtained. Finally, a simulation example is presented to verify the potential correctness of the obtained results.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 32
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 33
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: In industrial control systems, industrial infrastructure is often attacked by hackers. Due to the serious sample imbalance in industrial control data, the traditional machine learning method has poor performance in anomaly detection. In this paper, TrAdaboost algorithm is applied to industrial control anomaly detection. The samples that are easy to classify are taken as the source domain data, and the samples with poor classification effect are taken as the target domain. The source domain data is used to guide the target domain data training. Then, we improve the traditional TrAdaboost algorithm from two aspects of initial weight and final classifier, and apply it to industrial control anomaly detection. Finally, the performance of the algorithm on two different industrial control data sets is verified. And the improved algorithm is compared with other traditional algorithms. The experimental results show that the improved TrAdaboost algorithm has a significant advantage in predicting categories with a small sample size. This algorithm can accurately identify a few abnormal samples. Moreover, the F1 value, recall and precision value of the improved TrAdaboost algorithm on the two data sets have been significantly improved. This indicates that the improved TrAdaboost algorithm greatly improves the overall prediction accuracy of the model.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 34
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: To date, most regional and global hydrological models either ignore the representation of cropland or consider crop cultivation in a simplistic way or in abstract terms without any management practices. Yet, the water balance of cultivated areas is strongly influenced by applied management practices (e.g. planting, irrigation, fertilization, harvesting). The SWAT+ model represents agricultural land by default in a generic way where the start of the cropping season is driven by accumulated heat units. However, this approach does not work for tropical and sub-tropical regions such as the sub-Saharan Africa where crop growth dynamics are mainly controlled by rainfall rather than temperature. In this study, we present an approach on how to incorporate crop phenology using decision tables and global datasets of rainfed and irrigated croplands with the associated cropping calendar and fertilizer applications in a regional SWAT+ model for Northeast Africa. We evaluate the influence of the crop phenology representation on simulations of Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Evapotranspiration (ET) using LAI remote sensing data from Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) and WaPOR ET data respectively. Results show that a representation of crop phenology using global datasets leads to improved temporal patterns of LAI and ET simulations especially for regions with a single cropping cycle. However, for regions with multiple cropping seasons, global phenology datasets need to be complemented with local data or remote sensing data to capture additional cropping seasons. In addition, the improvement of the cropping season also helps to improve soil erosion estimates, as the timing of crop cover controls erosion rates in the model. With more realistic growing seasons, soil erosion is largely reduced for most agricultural Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) which can be considered as a move towards substantial improvements over previous estimates. We conclude that regional and global hydrological models can benefit from improved representations of crop phenology and the associated management practices. Future work regarding the incorporation of multiple cropping seasons in global phenology data is needed to better represent cropping cycles in regional to global hydrological models.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 35
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Land management practices can reduce the environmental impact of agricultural land use and production, improve productivity, and transform cropland into carbon sinks. In our study we assessed the biophysical and biogeochemical impacts and the potential contribution of cover crop practices to sustainable land use. We applied the process-based, global dynamic vegetation model LPJmL (Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land) V. 5.0-tillage-cc with a modified representation of cover crops to simulate the growth of grasses on cropland in periods between two consecutive main crops' growing seasons for near-past climate and land use conditions. We quantified simulated responses of agroecosystem components to cover crop cultivation in comparison to bare-soil fallowing practices on global cropland for a period of 50 years. For cover crops with tillage, we obtained annual global median soil carbon sequestration rates of 0.52 and 0.48 t C ha−1 yr−1 for the first and last decades of the entire simulation period, respectively. We found that cover crops with tillage reduced annual nitrogen leaching rates from cropland soils by medians of 39 % and 54 % but also the productivity of the following main crop by an average of 1.6 % and 2 % for the 2 analyzed decades. The largest reductions in productivity were found for rice and modestly lowered ones for maize and wheat, whereas the soybean yield revealed an almost homogenously positive response to cover crop practices replacing bare-soil fallow periods. The obtained simulation results of cover crop with tillage practices exhibit a good ability of the model version to reproduce observed effects reported in other studies. Further, the results suggest that having no tillage is a suitable complementary practice to cover crops, enhancing soil carbon sequestration and the reduction in nitrogen leaching, while reducing potential trade-offs with the main-crop productivity due to their impacts on soil nitrogen and water dynamics. The spatial heterogeneity of simulated impacts of cover crops on the variables assessed here was related to the time period since the introduction of the management practice as well as to environmental and agronomic conditions of the cropland. This study supports findings of other studies, highlighting the substantial potential contribution of cover crop practices to the sustainable development of arable production.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 36
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The Mid-Brunhes Transition (MBT) refers to the change in the amplitude of glacial-interglacial cycles around 430 ka BP, with more pronounced, warmer interglacials after ca. 430 ka BP. Despite the advances in the understanding of glacial cycles, the cause and mechanism of the MBT are still not entirely clear. In this study we examine (i) whether the MBT is caused by a change in the intrinsic dynamics of glacial cycles and (ii) how important the systematic changes of the orbital elements across the MBT are for the occurrence of the MBT. In order to address these questions, we take a pure machine-learning approach. We develop an artificial neural network model which provides a skilful 21-ka ahead prediction of glacial-interglacial changes in the LR04 benthic δ18O stack record as well as a sea level reconstruction obtained by an inverse model. This allows us to predict the interglacial levels from glacial conditions. Although the neural network model is trained over a pre-MBT period of 900–450 ka BP, it exhibits the intensification of interglacials after 450 ka BP. This suggests that the dynamical characteristics generating the stronger post-MBT interglacials is inherent already before the MBT. When the neural network model is forced by a hypothetical insolation for which the amplitude of the obliquity cycles is kept at pre-MBT level, the MBT-like phenomenon does not appear in our simulations. In line with earlier suggestions, our results thus give quantitative evidence that the MBT is caused by amplitude changes of the obliquity forcing. For comparison, our results suggest that the change in the mean eccentricity level across the MBT has a smaller impact on the appearance of the MBT.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 37
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: With the establishment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all. This ambition, however, exposes a critical gap in science-based insights, namely on how to achieve the 17 SDGs simultaneously. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help explore the needed systems' transformations. This requires a clear definition of the "target space." The 169 targets and 232 indicators used for monitoring SDG implementation cannot be used for this; they are too many, too broad, unstructured, and sometimes not formulated quantitatively. Here, we propose a streamlined set of science-based indicators and associated target values that are quantifiable and actionable to make scenario analysis meaningful, relevant, and simple enough to be transparent and communicable. The 36 targets are based on the SDGs, existing multilateral agreements, literature, and expert assessment. They include 2050 as a longer-term reference point. This target space can guide researchers in developing new sustainable development pathways.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 38
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Mitigation solutions are often evaluated in terms of costs and greenhouse gas reduction potentials, missing out on the consideration of direct effects on human well-being. Here, we systematically assess the mitigation potential of demand-side options categorized into avoid, shift and improve, and their human well-being links. We show that these options, bridging socio-behavioural, infrastructural and technological domains, can reduce counterfactual sectoral emissions by 40–80% in end-use sectors. Based on expert judgement and an extensive literature database, we evaluate 306 combinations of well-being outcomes and demand-side options, finding largely beneficial effects in improvement in well-being (79% positive, 18% neutral and 3% negative), even though we find low confidence on the social dimensions of well-being. Implementing such nuanced solutions is based axiomatically on an understanding of malleable rather than fixed preferences, and procedurally on changing infrastructures and choice architectures. Results demonstrate the high mitigation potential of demand-side mitigation options that are synergistic with well-being.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 39
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Coastal areas are highly diverse, ecologically rich, regions of key socio-economic activity, and are particularly sensitive to sea-level change. Over most of the 20th century, global mean sea level has risen mainly due to warming and subsequent expansion of the upper ocean layers as well as the melting of glaciers and ice caps. Over the last three decades, increased mass loss of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has also started to contribute significantly to contemporary sea-level rise. The future mass loss of the two ice sheets, which combined represent a sea-level rise potential of ∼65 m, constitutes the main source of uncertainty in long-term (centennial to millennial) sea-level rise projections. Improved knowledge of the magnitude and rate of future sea-level change is therefore of utmost importance. Moreover, sea level does not change uniformly across the globe and can differ greatly at both regional and local scales. The most appropriate and feasible sea level mitigation and adaptation measures in coastal regions strongly depend on local land use and associated risk aversion. Here, we advocate that addressing the problem of future sea-level rise and its impacts requires (i) bringing together a transdisciplinary scientific community, from climate and cryospheric scientists to coastal impact specialists, and (ii) interacting closely and iteratively with users and local stakeholders to co-design and co-build coastal climate services, including addressing the high-end risks.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 40
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: In this study, we provide a dynamical systems perspective to the modelling of pathological states induced by tumors or infection. A unified disease model is established using the innate immune system as the reference point. We propose a two-layer network model for carcinogenesis and sepsis based upon the interaction of parenchymal cells and immune cells via cytokines, and the co-evolutionary dynamics of parenchymal, immune cells, and cytokines. Our aim is to show that the complex cellular cooperation between parenchyma and stroma (immune layer) in the physiological and pathological case can be qualitatively and functionally described by a simple paradigmatic model of phase oscillators. By this, we explain carcinogenesis, tumor progression, and sepsis by destabilization of the healthy homeostatic state (frequency synchronized), and emergence of a pathological state (desynchronized or multifrequency cluster). The coupled dynamics of parenchymal cells (metabolism) and nonspecific immune cells (reaction of innate immune system) are represented by nodes of a duplex layer. The cytokine interaction is modeled by adaptive coupling weights between the nodes representing the immune cells (with fast adaptation time scale) and the parenchymal cells (slow adaptation time scale) and between the pairs of parenchymal and immune cells in the duplex network (fixed bidirectional coupling). Thereby, carcinogenesis, organ dysfunction in sepsis, and recurrence risk can be described in a correct functional context.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 41
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The files contain MAgPIE 4.3.5 results of reduced wood harvest and forest protection scenarios. MAgPIE requires GAMS (https://www.gams.com/) including licenses for the solvers CONOPT and (optionally) CPLEX for its core calculations. As the model benefits significantly from recent improvements in GAMS and CONOPT4 it is recommended to work with the most recent versions of both. The results of the model run here have been cleaned up to avoid bulky uploads. The fulldata.gdx is the technical output of the GAMS optimization and contains all quantities that were used during the optimization in unchanged form. The mif-file is a CSV file of a specific format and is synthetized from the fulldata.gdx by post-processing scripts. It can be read in any text editor or spreadsheet program and is well suited for a brief look at the results and for further analysis.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 42
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Migration is often considered a form of climate change adaptation by which individuals, households, and communities seek to reduce the risks associated with climate change. In this study, we examine first-time seasonal migration out of a village in North-Western Burkina Faso to neighbouring countries, triggered by more irregular rainfall patterns. Through a set of 52 qualitative interviews, we analyse the perceptions of migrants themselves as well as the sending community regarding migration consequences. Men migrated in the off-season, whereas women stayed behind. Most migrant men and wives of migrants perceive migration to have negative consequences for their socio-economic situation and their health. Despite this, a lack of options and deteriorating environmental conditions might force the men to move again. We interpreted the range of narratives provided by women and men against the background of the scientific literature on migration as climate change adaptation. While migration could be beneficial, this study challenges the notion of migration as an effective adaptation strategy for people in climate-vulnerable settings, who lack other options.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 43
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Crop pests and diseases (CPDs) are emerging threats to global food security, but trends in the occurrence of pests and diseases remain largely unknown due to the lack of observations for major crop producers. Here, on the basis of a unique historical dataset with more than 5,500 statistical records, we found an increased occurrence of CPDs in every province of China, with the national average rate of CPD occurrence increasing by a factor of four (from 53% to 218%) during 1970–2016. Historical climate change is responsible for more than one-fifth of the observed increment of CPD occurrence (22% ± 17%), ranging from 2% to 79% in different provinces. Among the climatic factors considered, warmer nighttime temperatures contribute most to the increasing occurrence of CPDs (11% ± 9%). Projections of future CPDs show that at the end of this century, climate change will lead to an increase in CPD occurrence by 243% ± 110% under a low-emissions scenario (SSP126) and 460% ± 213% under a high-emissions scenario (SSP585), with the magnitude largely dependent on the impacts of warmer nighttime temperatures and decreasing frost days. This observation-based evidence highlights the urgent need to accurately account for the increasing risk of CPDs in mitigating the impacts of climate change on food production.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 44
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Renewable energies, such as solar and wind energy, play a critical role in achieving rapid decarbonization to limit global warming by replacing fossil energy. However, lack of knowledge on renewable energy potentials in developing countries is a barrier in making adequate policies to promote these energies. Thus, we have carried out a spatial and economic analysis of solar and wind energy potential at the provincial level for the first time in Nepal. Our analysis is built upon the spatial energy modeling based on technical, geographical, and economic suitability criteria, utilizing open-source geographical information system platforms. A significant amount of renewable energy could be harnessed in Nepal, i.e., up to about 47,628 MW and 1,686 MW from solar and wind energy, respectively. Similarly, Nepal has a co-location potential of about 890 and 267 MW of solar and wind energy. Karnali and Gandaki provinces have the highest solar and wind energy potential due to a large share of suitable locations with good resource quality. We estimate the 10th percentile of Levelized cost of electricity generation of 91 USD/MWh for solar and 46 USD/MWh for wind. Our findings are helpful for the formulation of resource-specific policies of Nepal at a sub-national level.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 45
    Publication Date: 2022-03-22
    Description: The human-earth system is confronted with the challenge of providing a range of resources for a growing and more prosperous world population while simultaneously reducing environmental degradation. The Sustainable Development Goals and the Planetary Boundaries define targets to manage this challenge. Many of these are linked to the land system, such as biodiversity, water, food, nutrients and climate, and are strongly interconnected. A key question is how measures can be designed in the context of multi-dimensional sustainability targets to exploit synergies. To address this, a nexus approach is adopted that acknowledges the interconnectedness between the important sub-systems water, land, food, and climate. This study quantifies synergies and trade-offs from ambitious interventions in different components of this Water-Land-Food-Climate nexus at the global scale. For this purpose, a set of six harmonized scenarios is simulated with the MAgPIE and IMAGE models. The multi-model approach improves robustness of the results while shedding light on variations coming from different modelling approaches. Our results show that measures in the food component towards healthy diets with low meat consumption have synergies with all other nexus dimensions: Increased natural land improving terrestrial biodiversity (+4% to +8%), lower greenhouse gas emissions from land (-45% to -58%), reduced irrigation water withdrawals to protect or restore hydrological environmental flows (-3% to -24%), and reductions in nitrogen surpluses (-23% to -35%). Climate mitigation measures in line with the Paris Agreement have trade-offs with the water and food components of the nexus, as they adversely affect irrigation water withdrawals (+5% to +30% in 2050 compared to reference scenario) and food prices (+1% to +20%). The analysis of a scenario combining all measures reveals how certain measures are in conflict while others reinforce each other. This study provides an example of a nexus approach to scenario analysis providing input to the next generation of pathways aiming to achieve multiple dimensions of sustainable development.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 46
    Publication Date: 2022-03-23
    Description: Southeastern South America is subject to considerable precipitation variability on seasonal to decadal timescales and has undergone very heavy land-cover changes since the middle of the past century. The influence of local land-cover change and precipitation as drivers of regional evapotranspiration long-term trends and variability remains largely unknown in the region. Here, ensembles of stand-alone Dynamic Global Vegetation Models with different atmospheric forcings are used to disentangle the influence of those two drivers on austral summer evapotranspiration from 1950 to 2010. This paper examines the influence of both the ENSO and the dipole-like first-mode of southeastern South American precipitation variability (EOF1) on regional evapotranspiration. We found that in the lower La Plata Basin, evapotranspiration was driven by precipitation variability and showed a positive summer trend. Moreover, the region showed marked seasonal anomalies during El Niño and La Niña summers but mainly during EOF1 phases. On the contrary, in the upper La Plata Basin, land-cover changes forced the negative summer evapotranspiration trend and particularly reduced the summer anomalies of the late 1990s, a period of ENSO and EOF1-positive phases. In the South Atlantic Convergence Zone region, the high evapotranspiration uncertainty across ensemble members impeded finding robust results, which highlights the importance of using multiple DGVMs and atmospheric forcings instead of relying on single model/forcing results.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 47
    Publication Date: 2022-03-23
    Description: Agricultural production has replaced natural ecosystems across the planet, becoming a major driver of carbon emissions, biodiversity loss, and freshwater consumption. Here we combined global crop yield and environmental data in a ~1-million-dimensional mathematical optimisation framework to determine how optimising the spatial distribution of global croplands could reduce environmental impacts whilst maintaining current crop production levels. We estimate that relocating current croplands to optimal locations, whilst allowing ecosystems in then-abandoned areas to regenerate, could simultaneously decrease the current carbon, biodiversity, and irrigation water footprint of global crop production by 71%, 87%, and 100%, respectively, assuming high-input farming on newly established sites. The optimal global distribution of crops is largely similar for current and end-of-century climatic conditions across emission scenarios. Substantial impact reductions could already be achieved by relocating only a small proportion of worldwide crop production, relocating croplands only within national borders, and assuming less intensive farming systems.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 48
    Publication Date: 2022-03-23
    Description: We consider trends in the m seasonal subrecords of a record. To determine the statistical significance of the m trends, one usually determines the p value of each season either numerically or analytically and compares it with a significance level α~. We show in great detail for short- and long-term persistent records that this procedure, which is standard in climate science, is inadequate since it produces too many false positives (false discoveries). We specify, on the basis of the family wise error rate and by adapting ideas from multiple testing correction approaches, how the procedure must be changed to obtain more suitable significance criteria for the m trends. Our analysis is valid for data with all kinds of persistence. Specifically for long-term persistent data, we derive simple analytical expressions for the quantities of interest, which allow to determine easily the statistical significance of a trend in a seasonal record. As an application, we focus on 17 Antarctic station data. We show that only four trends in the seasonal temperature data are outside the bounds of natural variability, in marked contrast to earlier conclusions.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 49
    Publication Date: 2022-03-25
    Description: Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global “breadbaskets.” A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climate-related losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end of century warming using seven process-based models simulating five major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP 8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 50
    Publication Date: 2022-03-30
    Description: A plant-based dietary pattern has been recommended for its potential health and environmental benefits, but its relation to mortality warrants further exploration1. We examined this association among 13,154 adults aged 65 years and older (57.4% female) in the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS). The overall plant-based diet index (PDI), healthful plant-based diet index (hPDI) and unhealthful plant-based diet index (uPDI) were calculated using dietary data collected by a simplified food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Compared with the lowest quintile, participants in the highest quintile of PDI and hPDI had a decreased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.86, 0.98 for PDI; HR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.76, 0.87 for hPDI), whereas participants with the highest uPDI scores had a 17% (95% CI, 9%, 26%) increased risk. Among plant foods, fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, legumes, garlic, nuts and tea were the main protective contributors, whereas preserved vegetables and sugar were associated with a higher risk of mortality. These findings support the beneficial roles of overall and healthful plant-based dietary patterns. The quality, and not only quantity, of plant foods should be emphasized in relevant public health recommendations.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 51
    Publication Date: 2022-03-31
    Description: Extreme events can lead to crop yield declines, resulting in financial losses and threats to food security, and the frequency and intensity of such events is projected to increase. As global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on agricultural yields, there is a need to understand whether these models are able to reproduce the observed yield declines. We evaluated 13 GGCMs from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and compared observed and simulated impact of past droughts and heatwaves on yields for four crops (maize, rice, soy, wheat). We found that most models detect but underestimate the impact of droughts and heatwaves on yield. Specifically, the drought signal was detected by 12 of 13 models for maize and all models for wheat, while the heat signal was detected by eleven models for maize and six models for wheat. To investigate whether the difference between simulated and observed yield declines is due to a misrepresentation of simulated exposure to heat or water scarcity (i.e. misrepresentation of growing season), we analysed the relationship between average discrepancies between observed and simulated yield losses, and average simulated exposure to extreme weather conditions across all crop models. We found a positive correlation between simulated exposure to heat and model performance for heatwaves, but found no correlation for droughts. This suggests that there is a systematic underestimation of yield responses to heat and drought and not only a misrepresentation of exposure. Assuming that performance for the past indicates models' capacity to project future yield impacts, models likely underestimate future yield decline from climate change. High-quality temporally and spatially resolved observational data on growing seasons will be highly valuable to further improve crop models' capacity to adequately respond to extreme weather events.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 52
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    In:  Humanities and Social Sciences Communications
    Publication Date: 2022-03-31
    Description: The major social and economic impacts of international migration have led to a strong interest in better understanding the drivers of cross-border movement. Quantitative models have sought to explain global migration patterns in terms of economic, social, climatic, and other variables, and future projections of these variables are increasingly being used to forecast international migration flows. An important implicit assumption in the most widely used class of these approaches, so-called gravity models, is that their parameterisation based on panel data enables them to describe the effects of predictor variables on migration flows across both space and time, i.e., that they explain flow variation both across country pairs at a given time and across time for a given country pair. Here we show that this assumption does not hold. Whilst gravity models describe spatial patterns of international migration very well, they fail to capture even basic temporal dynamics, indeed, often worse than even the time-invariant average of the historical flows. We show that standard validation techniques have been unable to detect this important limitation of gravity models due to the different orders of magnitude of migration flows across spatial corridors, on the one hand, and over time, on the other hand. Our analysis suggests that gravity-model-based inferences about the effects that certain variables have had, or will have, on international migration over time may in reality represent statistical artefacts rather than true mechanisms. We argue that future predictions based on gravity models lack statistical support and that, in its current form, this class of models is not suited for informing policy makers about migration trajectories in the coming years and decades.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 53
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    In:  Greening Europe’s post-COVID-19 recovery | Blueprint series
    Publication Date: 2022-04-06
    Description: Even in the early days of COVID-19, the European Union signalled its commitment to make its post-pandemic recovery green. The disruption caused by the pandemic would require significant rebuilding of the economy, offering an opportunity to accelerate green investment in the context of the European Green Deal. But pursuing a green recovery is not as straightforward as it might seem. Complex trade-offs must be negotiated between the need for short-term stimulus and the need to address the long-term challenge posed by global warming. To support policymakers in this difficult endeavour, Bruegel launched in 2020 the Bruegel Green Recovery Group, an initiative supported by the European Climate Foundation. Its aim was to be a platform for dialogue between high-level EU policymakers and academics on green recovery, in Europe and beyond. This Blueprint compiles some of the work of prominent voices of the Group, on issues that will touch the lives of all Europeans.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 54
    Publication Date: 2022-04-06
    Description: Precursor signals for bifurcation-induced critical transitions have recently gained interest across many research fields. Common indicators, including variance and autocorrelation increases, rely on the dynamical system being driven by white noise. Here, we show that these metrics raise false alarms for systems driven by time-correlated noise, if the autocorrelation of the noise process increases with time. We introduce a new indicator for systems driven by non-stationary short-term memory noise, and show that this indicator performs well in situations where the classical methods fail.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 55
    Publication Date: 2022-04-07
    Description: Substantial renewable energy (RE) cost reductions have raised the prospect of a subsidy-free RE era of the energy transition. The envisaged policy cornerstones of this era are carbon markets, which create economic incentives for sustaining further RE deployment. However, this overlooks that exposing RE to market risks and increasing interest rates would result in substantially higher financing cost, which in turn would lead to much steeper carbon price paths. The resulting political pressure may provoke a price-depressing regulatory intervention, disrupting further RE expansion. Here we conceptualize this feedback and infer indicators for the risk of such an intervention. By quantifying these indicators for the European Union, we find that increased financing cost could double carbon prices in the long term, halve the rate of renewable capacity deployment in the next 15 years and considerably increase the profits of fossil fuel plants. This implies a substantial risk of pushback that policymakers should safeguard against.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 56
  • 57
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    In:  Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
    Publication Date: 2022-04-12
    Description: While carbon taxes are generally seen as a rational policy response to climate change, knowledge about their performance from an ex-post perspective is still limited. This paper analyzes the emissions and cost impacts of the UK CPS, a carbon tax levied on all fossil-fired power plants. To overcome the problem of a missing control group, we propose a policy evaluation approach which leverages economic theory and machine learning for counterfactual prediction. Our results indicate that in the period 2013–2016 the CPS lowered emissions by 6.2 percent at an average cost of €18 per ton. We find substantial temporal heterogeneity in tax-induced impacts which stems from variation in relative fuel prices. An important implication for climate policy is that whether a higher carbon tax leads to higher emissions reductions and higher costs depends on relative fuel prices.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 58
    Publication Date: 2022-04-20
    Description: The quantification of spatial propagation of extreme precipitation events is vital in water resources planning and disaster mitigation. However, quantifying these extreme events has always been challenging as many traditional methods are insufficient to capture the nonlinear interrelationships between extreme event time series. Therefore, it is crucial to develop suitable methods for analyzing the dynamics of extreme events over a river basin with a diverse climate and complicated topography. Over the last decade, complex network analysis emerged as a powerful tool to study the intricate spatiotemporal relationship between many variables in a compact way. In this study, we employ two nonlinear concepts of event synchronization and edit distance to investigate the extreme precipitation pattern in the Ganga river basin. We use the network degree to understand the spatial synchronization pattern of extreme rainfall and identify essential sites in the river basin with respect to potential prediction skills. The study also attempts to quantify the influence of precipitation seasonality and topography on extreme events. The findings of the study reveal that (1) the network degree is decreased in the southwest to northwest direction, (2) the timing of 50th percentile precipitation within a year influences the spatial distribution of degree, (3) the timing is inversely related to elevation, and (4) the lower elevation greatly influences connectivity of the sites. The study highlights that edit distance could be a promising alternative to analyze event-like data by incorporating event time and amplitude and constructing complex networks of climate extremes. Extreme precipitation networks are constructed over a river basin using event synchronization (ES) and edit distance (ED). Edit distance is an alternative to event synchronization accounting for the sequences and the magnitude of events. Network-based measure degree is employed to understand the spatial synchronization pattern of the extreme precipitation in the Ganga river basin (GRB). The influence of the topography and rainfall characteristics on the extreme precipitation networks is also quantified. The proposed study can estimate the impact of artificial boundaries, thereby better understanding the extreme precipitation network's topology and spatial risk quantification of extreme events.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 59
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    In:  Journal of Macroeconomics
    Publication Date: 2022-04-20
    Description: I account for the sources of labor reallocation from the manufacturing sector towards services in the United States for the 1950 to 2010 period. I use a multi-sector model with sector-specific productivity growth and non-homothetic preferences to decompose the sources of labor reallocation into supply-side, demand-side, and wedge distortions. The decomposition is performed in the context of a competitive economy where the competitive equilibrium with wedges reproduces prices and quantities of the economy exactly. During the 1950–2010 period, the demand-side mechanism accounts for 57% of the reallocation of labor and the supply-side for 28%. Focusing only in the sub-period from 1950 to 1980, 70% of the reallocation is demand-driven. In the sub-period between 1980 and 2010, the three sources of labor reallocation are quantitatively important. Demand-side accounts for 47%, supply-side for 42% and wedge distortions for 10%.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 60
    Publication Date: 2022-04-20
    Description: Joint Forest Management (JFM) is a form of participatory forest governance that aims for protection, conservation and sustainable use of forest resources by involving local communities. The JFM reforms have been promoted to address forest and land degradation, as vital in reducing institutional uncertainty in complex environments and strengthening cooperation among resource users. We draw on theories of collective action and transaction costs assuming that the overharvesting problem can be reduced by efficient and effective rules that support cooperation between forest users in using common pool resources at the group level and explore how forest users respond to policies that aim to reduce overharvesting in Tajikistan. To this end, we used a framed field experiment involving actual forest resource users. We find a strong impact of rules and the associated transaction costs in dealing with environmental and institutional uncertainties. The experiment results indicate that the harvesting rate is likely to decrease when institutionalized mechanisms are introduced to coordinate the interdependence among resource users. The overall results suggest that the rule determining harvest on a rotational basis is effective in reducing harvesting under environmental uncertainty regardless of the existence of communication and under institutional uncertainty when communication is permitted.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 61
    Publication Date: 2022-04-20
    Description: The term 'resilience' is increasingly being used in social-technical-environmental systems sciences and particularly also in the Earth system sciences. However, the diversity of resilience concepts and a certain (sometimes intended) openness of proposed definitions can lead to misunderstandings and may impede their application to complex systems modelling. We propose a guideline that aims to ease communication as well as to support systematic development of research questions and models in the context of resilience. It can be applied independently of the modelling framework or underlying theory of choice. At the heart of this guideline is a checklist consisting of four questions to be answered: (i) Resilience of what? (ii) Resilience regarding what? (iii) Resilience against what? (iv) Resilience how? We refer to the answers to these resilience questions as the "system", the "sustainant", the "adverse influence", and the "response options". The term 'sustainant' is a neologism describing the feature of the system (state, structure, function, pathway, ...) that should be maintained (or restored quickly enough) in order to call the system resilient. The use of this proposed guideline in the field of Earth system resilience is demonstrated for the application example of a potential climate tipping element: the Amazon rainforest. The example illustrates the diversity of possible answers to the checklist's questions as well as their benefits in structuring the modelling process. The guideline supports the modeller in communicating precisely what is actually meant by 'resilience' in a specific context. This combination of freedom and precision could help to advance the resilience discourse by building a bridge between those demanding unambiguous definitions and those stressing the benefits of generality and flexibility of the resilience concept.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 62
    Publication Date: 2022-04-20
    Description: Sustainability initiatives, such as Repair Cafes, are sites of niche innovations with the potential to contribute to an urban sustainability transition. Using the multi-level perspective as a framework, we explore the visions of change of 12 Repair Cafes in Berlin to understand how the members believe the movement can effect change. We explore the dynamics and demographics of the different user groups within the Repair Cafes to understand who has a voice within them. We found that Repair Cafes have two main visions of change which ask for mass participation. However, we also found that latent discrimination by ‘expert’ technician volunteers discourages the involvement of women and lower social classes. This knowledge that Repair Cafes are inconsistent in their purported visions of change and their practices has repercussions for their role in urban sustainability transitions.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 63
    Publication Date: 2022-04-20
    Description: The world currently faces an unprecedented phase of global environmental change largely driven by the combined impact of anthropogenic climate change and environmental degradation. Adaptation to global environmental changes in natural resource management is complicated by high levels of uncertainty related to environmental impact projections. Management strategies and policies to support adaptation measures and sustainable resource management under substantial environmental uncertainty are thus urgently needed. The paper reports results of behavioral irrigation experiments with farmers and students in the region of Hangzhou in China. The experimental design simulates a small-scale irrigation system with five parties located along an irrigation channel. The first treatment adds weather variability with a drying tendency that influences water availability in the irrigation channel. In the second treatment, the participants can select one of two adaptation options. Results suggest that participants react with a marked delay to weather uncertainty. In addition, upstream players are more likely to adapt to uncertainty than those further downstream, and groups who show higher levels of cooperation more frequently invest in adaptation measures. Lastly, extraction inequality in earlier stages is found to constitute a key obstacle to collective adaptation.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 64
    Publication Date: 2022-04-29
    Description: Public support is fundamental in scaling up actions to limit global warming. This study analyzes how the experience of climate extremes influences people’s environmental attitudes and willingness to vote for Green parties in Europe. To this end, we combined high-resolution climatological data with regionally aggregated, harmonized Eurobarometer data (34 countries) and European Parliamentary electoral data (28 countries). Our findings show a significant and sizeable effect of temperature anomalies, heat episodes, and dry spells on environmental concern and voting for Green parties. The magnitude of the climate effect differs substantially across regions. It is stronger in regions with a cooler Continental or temperate Atlantic climate and weaker in regions with a warmer Mediterranean climate. The relationships are moderated by regional income level suggesting that climate change experiences increase public support for climate action but only under favorable economic conditions. The findings have important implications for the current efforts to promote climate action in line with the Paris Agreement.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 65
    Publication Date: 2022-04-29
    Description: Transforming global energy systems is critical for climate change mitigation and requires overcoming not only techno-economic, but also socio-technical hurdles. The main tools to analyse challenges in these two domains are integrated assessment models (IAMs) and transition theories or models, respectively. Despite a surging interest in integrative research that leverages complementarities in order to include social constraints into IAMs, both approaches are often confined to their own disciplinary background and practical integration studies of existing models are scarce. Here I demonstrate the feasibility of model integration by a bi-directional soft-link that merges the strengths of a neoclassical intertemporally optimising IAM with one global region, and a technologically and regionally highly resolved, evolutionary simulation model of S-shaped technology diffusion in the power sector. The new model iteratively converges to a stable equilibrium via two time-dependent coupling variables: carbon prices and renewable energy shares. The results for a 2 °C scenario show that due to gradual technology diffusion, energy transition challenges are exacerbated and incur higher economic losses. I discuss the potential of coupling existing models as an option to combine insights from different disciplinary perspectives to energy transitions.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 66
    Publication Date: 2022-04-29
    Description: Understanding the influence of climate change and population pressure on human conflict remains a critically important topic in the social sciences. Long-term records that evaluate these dynamics across multiple centuries and outside the range of modern climatic variation are especially capable of elucidating the relative effect of—and the interaction between—climate and demography. This is crucial given that climate change may structure population growth and carrying capacity, while both climate and population influence per capita resource availability. This study couples paleoclimatic and demographic data with osteological evaluations of lethal trauma from 149 directly accelerator mass spectrometry 14C-dated individuals from the Nasca highland region of Peru. Multiple local and supraregional precipitation proxies are combined with a summed probability distribution of 149 14C dates to estimate population dynamics during a 700-y study window. Counter to previous findings, our analysis reveals a precipitous increase in violent deaths associated with a period of productive and stable climate, but volatile population dynamics. We conclude that favorable local climate conditions fostered population growth that put pressure on the marginal and highly circumscribed resource base, resulting in violent resource competition that manifested in over 450 y of internecine warfare. These findings help support a general theory of intergroup violence, indicating that relative resource scarcity—whether driven by reduced resource abundance or increased competition—can lead to violence in subsistence societies when the outcome is lower per capita resource availability.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 67
    Publication Date: 2022-04-29
    Description: Notoriety of the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11c interglacial arises from its long duration, extending over two precessional cycles, high sea level, and persistence of high atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The strong climatic response is often considered paradoxical because it was attained under weak boreal summer insolation forcing, a function of an extended eccentricity minimum and of precession and obliquity being almost opposite in phase. Here, we trace the characteristics of MIS 11c and explore their most likely causes. MIS 11c was preceded by the largest Quaternary ice volume expansion of MIS 12, which ended with a long period of ice rafting and interhemispheric heat transfer. We suggest that the duration of MIS 12 and the size of ice sheets exceeded a critical threshold that triggered a deglaciation despite the weak insolation forcing. The weak forcing led to a slow but steady loss of ice volume, that was sufficient to allow ocean outgassing of CO2, but insufficient to raise sea level within a single precessional cycle. This gave rise to a prolonged interval with large residual ice sheets and high CO2 concentrations that is unique in the last 800,000 years. The obliquity-precession antiphasing produced a weak boreal summer insolation minimum, skipping a glacial inception and leading to continued sea-level rise and high CO2 concentrations, sustained by carbonate compensation. Full interglacial conditions were ach- ieved in the second precessional cycle, and the combined strength and length of the interglacial probably led to loss of some Greenland and Antarctic ice compared to other interglacials. While MIS 11c is highly unusual in many respects, these appear to be linked to each other through the very weak insolation forcing, which led to its extended duration, slow sea-level rise and stable CO2 concentrations through a cocktail of counteracting carbon cycle processes. Although some of these features are also encountered in other interglacials, their combination with strong interglacial intensity is unique to MIS 11c and this appears to be a function of the large MIS 12 ice sheets and the high CO2 concentrations from the beginning of the interglacial.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 68
    Publication Date: 2022-04-29
    Description: We provide a quantitative assessment of policy options to inform the 2021 review of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and raise climate ambition. We use a permit trading model in which firms utilize rolling finite planning horizons, which replicates historical price and banking developments well compared to an infinite horizon. When firms have bounded foresight, indirectly raising ambition through the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) is not equivalent to directly raising ambition through the emissions cap trajectory. Leveraging the MSR turns out to be efficiency improving as it compensates for firms’ bounded foresight by frontloading abatement efforts. We analyze the MSR interaction with the cap trajectory to exploit synergies and minimize the cost of raising ambition. We also provide a comparative assessment of a complete suite of changes in the MSR parameters. Whatever its parameters, MSR-induced resilience to demand shocks remains limited by design: the MSR acts more as an unconditional price support provider than as a responsive price stabilizer.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 69
    Publication Date: 2022-05-02
    Description: A multitude of actions to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural and modified ecosystems can have co-benefits for both climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation. Reducing greenhouse emissions to limit warming to less than 1.5 or 2°C above preindustrial levels, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, can yield strong co-benefits for land, freshwater and marine biodiversity and reduce amplifying climate feedbacks from ecosystem changes. Not all climate mitigation strategies are equally effective at producing biodiversity co-benefits, some in fact are counterproductive. Moreover, social implications are often overlooked within the climate-biodiversity nexus. Protecting biodiverse and carbon-rich natural environments, ecological restoration of potentially biodiverse and carbon-rich habitats, the deliberate creation of novel habitats, taking into consideration a locally adapted and meaningful (i.e., full consequences considered) mix of these measures, can result in the most robust win-win solutions. These can be further enhanced by avoidance of narrow goals, taking long term views and minimising further losses of intact ecosystems. In this review paper, we first discuss various climate mitigation actions that evidence demonstrates can negatively impact biodiversity, resulting in unseen and unintended negative consequences. We then examine climate mitigation actions that co-deliver biodiversity and societal benefits. We give examples of these win-win solutions, categorised as ‘protect, restore, manage and create’, in different regions of the world that could be expanded, upscaled and used for further innovation.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 70
    Publication Date: 2022-05-02
    Description: Societal transformations are necessary to address critical global challenges, such as mitigation of anthropogenic climate change and reaching UN sustainable development goals. Recently, social tipping processes have received increased attention, as they present a form of social change whereby a small change can shift a sensitive social system into a qualitatively different state due to strongly self-amplifying (mathematically positive) feedback mechanisms. Social tipping processes with respect to technological and energy systems, political mobilization, financial markets and sociocultural norms and behaviors have been suggested as potential key drivers towards climate action. Drawing from expert insights and comprehensive literature review, we develop a framework to identify and characterize social tipping processes critical to facilitating rapid social transformations. We find that social tipping processes are distinguishable from those of already more widely studied climate and ecological tipping dynamics. In particular, we identify human agency, social-institutional network structures, different spatial and temporal scales and increased complexity as key distinctive features underlying social tipping processes. Building on these characteristics, we propose a formal definition for social tipping processes and filtering criteria for those processes that could be decisive for future trajectories towards climate action. We illustrate this definition with the European political system as an example of potential social tipping processes, highlighting the prospective role of the FridaysForFuture movement. Accordingly, this conceptual framework for social tipping processes can be utilized to illuminate mechanisms for necessary transformative climate change mitigation policies and actions.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 71
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    In:  Frontiers for Young Minds
    Publication Date: 2022-05-03
    Description: The coldest, the windiest, the driest: the continent of Antarctica is a place of extremes. Located at the South Pole, Antarctica is covered by a vast ice sheet, millions of years old and in some areas more than 4,000 m thick. If all this ice were to melt, sea levels would rise by roughly 58 m. Despite its massive size, the Antarctic ice sheet is vulnerable, losing more and more ice as the climate is warming. Most of this ice loss happens along the coast, where the ice sheet slowly flows into the ocean and forms ice shelves, which melt from below because of the comparably warmer ocean water. While the ice loss is still relatively slow right now, several processes could accelerate it and eventually even make it partly unstoppable. Wide-spread ice loss can only be prevented on the long-term if we manage to limit global warming to well below 2°C.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 72
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    In:  Quaternary Science Reviews
    Publication Date: 2022-05-04
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 73
    Publication Date: 2022-05-04
    Description: Deep learning-based methods have achieved remarkable performance in 3-D sensing since they perceive environments in a biologically inspired manner. Nevertheless, the existing approaches trained by monocular sequences are still prone to fail in dynamic environments. In this work, we mitigate the negative influence of dynamic environments on the joint estimation of depth and visual odometry (VO) through hybrid masks. Since both the VO estimation and view reconstruction process in the joint estimation framework is vulnerable to dynamic environments, we propose the cover mask and the filter mask to alleviate the adverse effects, respectively. As the depth and VO estimation are tightly coupled during training, the improved VO estimation promotes depth estimation as well. Besides, a depth-pose consistency loss is proposed to overcome the scale inconsistency between different training samples of monocular sequences. Experimental results show that both our depth prediction and globally consistent VO estimation are state of the art when evaluated on the KITTI benchmark. We evaluate our depth prediction model on the Make3D dataset to prove the transferability of our method as well.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Location