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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2024-01-02
    Description: Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) moves atmospheric carbon to geological or land-based sinks. In a first-best setting, the optimal use of CDR is achieved by a removal subsidy that equals the optimal carbon tax and marginal damages. We derive second-best policy rules for CDR subsidies and carbon taxes when no global carbon price exists but a national government implements a unilateral climate policy. We find that the optimal carbon tax differs from an optimal CDR subsidy because of carbon leakage and a balance of resource trade effect. First, the optimal removal subsidy tends to be larger than the carbon tax because of lower supply-side leakage on fossil resource markets. Second, net carbon exporters exacerbate this wedge to increase producer surplus of their carbon resource producers, implying even larger removal subsidies. Third, net carbon importers may set their removal subsidy even below their carbon tax when marginal environmental damages are small, to appropriate producer surplus from carbon exporters.
    Language: English
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2024-01-09
    Description: This study investigates the adjustment of large-scale localized buoyancy anomalies in mid-latitude regions and the nonlinear evolution of associated condensation patterns in both adiabatic and moist-convective environments. This investigation is carried out utilizing the two-layer idealized moist-convective thermal rotating shallow water (mcTRSW) model. Our investigation reveals that the presence of a circular positive potential temperature anomaly in the lower layer initiates an anticyclonic high-pressure rotation, accompanied by a negative buoyancy anomaly in the upper layer, resulting in an anisotropic northeast–southwest tilted circulation of heat flux. The evolution of eddy heat fluxes, such as poleward heat flux, energy, and meridional elongation of the buoyancy field, heavily depends on the perturbation's strength, size, and vertical structure. The heatwave initiates atmospheric instability, leading to precipitation systems such as rain bands and asymmetric latent heat release due to moist convection in a diabatic environment. This creates a comma cloud pattern in the upper troposphere and a comma-shaped buoyancy anomaly in the lower layer, accompanied by the emission of inertia gravity waves. The southern and eastern sectors of the buoyancy anomaly show an upward flux, generating a stronger cross-equatorial flow and inertia-gravity waves in a southward and eastward direction. Furthermore, the simulations reveal a similar asymmetric pattern of total condensed liquid water content distribution, accompanied by the intensification of moist convection as rain bands. This intensification is more pronounced in barotropic structures than in baroclinic configurations with stagnant upper layers. This study highlights the importance of considering moist convection and its effects on atmospheric and oceanic flows in mid-latitude regions, as well as the role of buoyancy anomalies in generating heatwaves and precipitation patterns.
    Language: English
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-01-09
    Description: Here, we present BASD-CMIP6-PE, a high-resolution (1d, 10 km) climate dataset for Peru and Ecuador based on the bias-adjusted and statistically downscaled CMIP6 climate projections of 10 GCMs. This dataset includes both historical simulations (1850–2014) and future projections (2015–2100) for precipitation and minimum, mean, and maximum temperature under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The BASD-CMIP6-PE climate data were generated using the trend-preserving Bias Adjustment and Statistical Downscaling (BASD) method. The BASD performance was evaluated using observational data and through hydrological modeling across Peruvian and Ecuadorian river basins in the historical period. Results demonstrated that BASD significantly reduced biases between CMIP6-GCM simulations and observational data, enhancing long-term statistical representations, including mean and extreme values, and seasonal patterns. Furthermore, the hydrological evaluation highlighted the appropriateness of adjusted GCM simulations for simulating streamflow, including mean, low, and high flows. These findings underscore the reliability of BASD-CMIP6-PE in assessing regional climate change impacts on agriculture, water resources, and hydrological extremes.
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2024-01-10
    Description: Introduction: Behavioural interventions could improve caregivers’ food hygiene practices in low-resource settings. So far, evidence is limited to small-scale and short-term studies, and few have evaluated the long-term maintenance of promoted behaviours. We evaluated the effect of a relatively large-scale behaviour change intervention on medium and long-term maintenance of household food hygiene practices in Bangladesh. - Methods: We analyse a secondary outcome of the Food and Agricultural Approaches to Reducing Malnutrition (FAARM) cluster-randomised trial and its sub-study Food Hygiene to reduce Environmental Enteric Dysfunction (FHEED), conducted in Habiganj district, Sylhet division, Bangladesh. The FAARM trial used a 1:1 parallel arm design and included 2705 women in 96 settlements: 48 intervention and 48 control. Women in the intervention settlements received training in homestead gardening, poultry rearing and nutrition over three years (2015–2018), complemented by an eight-month (mid-2017 to early-2018) behaviour change component on food hygiene using motivational drivers. Nested within the FAARM trial, the FHEED sub-study evaluated several outcomes along the hygiene pathway. For this article, we evaluated household food hygiene behaviours by analysing structured observation data collected in two cross-sectional surveys, four and 16 months after the food hygiene promotion ended, from two independent subsamples of FAARM women with children aged 6–18 months. We assessed intervention effects on food hygiene practices using mixed-effects logistic regression, accounting for clustering. In exploratory analyses, we further assessed behaviour patterns – how often critical food hygiene behaviours were performed individually, in combination and consistently across events. - Results: Based on the analysis of 524 complementary feeding and 800 food preparation events in households from 571 participant women, we found that intervention households practised better food hygiene than controls four months post-intervention, with somewhat smaller differences after 16 months. Overall, the intervention positively affected food hygiene, particularly around child feeding: using soap for handwashing (odds ratio 5·8, 95% CI 2·2–15·2), cleaning feeding utensils (3·8, 1·9–7·7), and cooking fresh/reheating food (1·8, 1·1–2·8). However, the simultaneous practice of several behaviours was rare, occurring in only 10% of feeding events (intervention: 15%; control: 4%), and the practice of safe food hygiene behaviours was inconsistent between events. - Conclusion: Our findings suggest that a motivational behaviour change intervention encouraged caregivers to maintain certain safe food hygiene practices in a rural setting. However, substantial physical changes in the household environment are likely needed to make these behaviours habitual.
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2024-01-11
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2024-01-11
    Description: Increasing renewable sources in the energy mix is essential to mitigate climate change, not least in countries where the energy demand is likely to rise over the coming decades to reduce or even skip durations of time where fossils dominate. For Africa, solar photovoltaic (PV) and inland wind energy, combined with hydropower, provide significant and untapped potentials, whereas trends and robustness measures need further investigation. This study aims to gain insight into distributed trends in solar PV and wind energy potentials over Africa. This study employs relevant metrics, including relative change, model agreement, robustness, bias, and absolute levels for every available model combination and two climate scenarios, with energy planning purposes in mind. The study finds that regional climate models were the primary control of spatio-temporal patterns over their driving global climate model. Solar PV potentials show more coherence between models, a lower bias and general high potentials in most African regions than wind potentials. Favourable locations for inland wind energy include mainly the regions of greater Sahara and the Horn region. For wind and solar potentials combined, scattered locations within Sahara stand out as the most favourable across scenarios and periods. The analysis of minimum energy potentials shows stable conditions despite low potentials in certain regions. The results demonstrate a potential for solar and wind power in most of the African regions and highlight why solar and wind power or synergies of energy mix should be considered for local energy planning and storage solutions.
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2024-01-11
    Description: This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH4 and CO2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.
    Language: English
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2024-01-17
    Description: Passenger transport has significant externalities, including carbon emissions and air pollution. Public health research has identified additional social gains from active travel, due to the health benefits of physical exercise. Per mile, these benefits greatly exceed the external costs from car use. We introduce active travel into an optimal fuel taxation model and characterize analytically the second-best optimal fuel tax. We find that accounting for active travel benefits increases the optimal fuel tax by 44% in the USA and 38% in the UK. Fuel taxes should be implemented jointly with other policies aimed at increasing the uptake of active travel.
    Language: English
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2024-01-18
    Description: Aerosol effects on cloud properties are notoriously difficult to disentangle from variations driven by meteorological factors. Here, a machine learning model is trained on reanalysis data and satellite retrievals to predict cloud microphysical properties, as a way to illustrate the relative importance of meteorology and aerosol, respectively, on cloud properties. It is found that cloud droplet effective radius can be predicted with some skill from only meteorological information, including estimated air mass origin and cloud top height. For ten geographical regions the mean coefficient of determination is 0.3813 and normalised root-mean square error 25%. The machine learning model thereby performs better than a reference linear regression model, and a model predicting the climatological mean. A gradient boosting regression performs on par with a neural network regression model. Adding aerosol information as input to the model improves its skill somewhat, but the difference is small and the direction of the influence of changing aerosol burden on cloud droplet effective radius is not consistent across regions, and thereby also not always consistent with what is expected from cloud brightening.
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    In:  Ariadne-Analyse
    Publication Date: 2024-01-18
    Description: Der Ausbau Erneuerbarer Energien bedarf eines breiten Engagements lokaler Ak­teure. Kommunen mangelt es jedoch häufig an ausreichenden Ressourcen und die Rolle von Beratungs­stellen und Vermittlern wird daher immer wichtiger.
    Language: German
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  • 11
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    A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in cooperation with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)
    Publication Date: 2024-01-19
    Description: Madagascar has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the country’s agricultural sector. This study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of two potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision-makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Madagascar. The impact assessment consists of several steps, including climate projections based on three emissions scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP3- RCP7.0 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario), modelling and comparison of future suitability and yield of three widely used crops (coffee, vanilla, pepper) and an assessment of yield changes in peanut production under future climate conditions. Further, the study outlines gendered challenges and support requirements in national adaptation planning. The simulation results show that Robusta coffee is less sensitive to heat compared to Arabica coffee. The suitable area for Robusta coffee remains almost stable under changing climate conditions, while the suitability of Arabica coffee is projected decrease by 7 % on a national level. Simulation results indicate a slight increase in suitability for vanilla production, particularly in the main growing region Sava, but also in Atsimo Atsinanana, thus safeguarding an important source of income for local farmers and guaranteeing the sustainability of Madagascar´s most valuable export product. Furthermore, climate change is projected to have a rather low impact on the agro-climatic suitability of pepper production. When averaged across Madagascar, the decrease in suitability is less than 1 %, however, there are some noteworthy differences across regions and scenarios. The results for the process-based peanut modelling show that rising temperature and reduced rainfall amounts are likely to decrease peanut yields across Madagascar. However, elevated atmospheric CO2 is projected to offset these negative impacts. The study furthermore evaluated the efficiency of two adaptation strategies, namely the use of locally adapted crop varieties and flexible planting dates. The simulation results suggest that the traditional cultivar Kanety is more suited in future climate change scenarios since yields for Kanety are generally higher than those of the improved variety Fleur 11. Interestingly, opting for flexible planting dates as opposed to a fixed planting date does not result in enhanced yields. This result underlines the importance of regional crop calendars to determine optimal sowing dates. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate in Madagascar.
    Language: English , French
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  • 12
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    In:  IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems
    Publication Date: 2024-01-23
    Description: The psychology of the individual is continuously changing in nature, which has a significant influence on the evolutionary dynamics of populations. To study the influence of the continuously changing psychology of individuals on the behavior of populations, in this article, we consider the game transitions of individuals in evolutionary processes to capture the changing psychology of individuals in reality, where the game that individuals will play shifts as time progresses and is related to the transition rates between different games. Besides, the individual’s reputation is taken into account and utilized to choose a suitable neighbor for the strategy updating of the individual. Within this model, we investigate the statistical number of individuals staying in different game states and the expected number fits well with our theoretical results. Furthermore, we explore the impact of transition rates between different game states, payoff parameters, the reputation mechanism, and different time scales of strategy updates on cooperative behavior, and our findings demonstrate that both the transition rates and reputation mechanism have a remarkable influence on the evolution of cooperation. Additionally, we examine the relationship between network size and cooperation frequency, providing valuable insights into the robustness of the model.
    Language: English
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2024-01-23
    Description: We demonstrate an indirect, rather than direct, role of quasi-resonant amplification of planetary waves in a summer weather extreme. We find that there was an interplay between a persistent, amplified large-scale atmospheric circulation state and soil moisture feedbacks as a precursor for the June 2021 Pacific Northwest “Heat Dome” event. An extended resonant planetary wave configuration prior to the event created an antecedent soil moisture deficit that amplified lower atmospheric warming through strong nonlinear soil moisture feedbacks, favoring this unprecedented heat event.
    Language: English
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2024-01-23
    Description: In recent years, several global events have severely disrupted economies and social structures, undermining confidence in the resilience of modern societies. Examples include the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought unprecedented health challenges and economic disruptions, and the emergence of geopolitical tensions and conflicts that have further strained international relations and economic stability. While empirical evidence on the dynamics and drivers of past societal collapse is mounting, a process-based understanding of these dynamics is still in its infancy. Here, we aim to identify and illustrate the underlying drivers of such societal instability or even collapse. The inspiration for this work is Joseph Tainter’s theory of the “collapse of complex societies”, which postulates that the complexity of societies increases as they solve problems, leading to diminishing returns on complexity investments and ultimately to collapse. In this work, we abstract this theory into a low-dimensional and stylized model of two classes of networked agents, hereafter referred to as “laborers” and “administrators”. We numerically model the dynamics of societal complexity, measured as the fraction of “administrators”, which was assumed to affect the productivity of connected energy-producing “laborers”. We show that collapse becomes increasingly likely as the complexity of the model society continuously increases in response to external stresses that emulate Tainter’s abstract notion of problems that societies must solve. We also provide an analytical approximation of the system’s dominant dynamics, which matches well with the numerical experiments, and use it to study the influence on network link density, social mobility and productivity. Our work advances the understanding of social-ecological collapse and illustrates its potentially direct link to an ever-increasing societal complexity in response to external shocks or stresses via a self-reinforcing feedback.
    Language: English
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2024-01-25
    Description: Understanding wildfire dynamics in space and over time is critical for wildfire control and management. In this study, fire data from European Space Agency (ESA) MODIS fire product (ESA/CCI/FireCCI/5_1) with ≥ 70% confidence level was used to characterise spatial and temporal variation in fire frequency in Zimbabwe between 2001 and 2020. Results showed that burned area increased by 16% from 3,689 km2 in 2001 to 6,130 km2 in 2011 and decreased in subsequent years reaching its lowest in 2020 (1,161km2). Over, the 20-year period, an average of 40,086.56 km2 of land was burned annually across the country. In addition, results of the regression analysis based on Generalised Linear Model illustrated that soil moisture, wind speed and temperature significantly explained variation in burned area. Moreover, the four-year lagged annual rainfall was positively related with burned area suggesting that some parts in the country (southern and western) are characterised by limited herbaceous production thereby increasing the time required for the accumulation of sufficient fuel load. The study identified major fire hotspots in Zimbabwe through the integration of remotely sensed fire data within a spatially analytical framework. This can provide useful insights into fire evolution which can be used to guide wildfire control and management in fire prone ecosystems. Moreover, resource allocation for fire management and mitigation can be optimised through targeting areas most affected by wildfires especially during the dry season where wildfire activity is at its peak.
    Language: English
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2024-01-25
    Description: Shifting cultivation will face increasing pressure from erosion-related land degradation caused by rising cultivation intensities and climate change. However, empirical knowledge about future trends of soil erosion and thus land degradation in shifting cultivation systems is limited. We use the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to first explore the combined effects of climate change and agricultural intensification on soil erosion of uphill shifting cultivation systems, using six surveyed soil profiles. We assess interactions between climate change, the length of the fallow period, and slope inclinations for a near (2021–2050) and far (2071–2100) future period, considering three climate scenarios, five climate models, fallow periods between one and 20 years, and slopes between five and 70% steepness. Our results show a significant nonlinear relationship between global warming and erosion. Until the end of the century, erosion is estimated to increase by a factor of 1.2, 2.2, and 3.1 under the SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively, compared with the historical baseline (1985–2014). Combined effects from climate change, fallow length, and slope inclination indicate that steep slopes require longer fallow periods, with an increase of slope from 5% to 10% multiplying the required fallow length by a mean factor of 2.5, and that fallow periods will need to be extended under higher global warming if erosion rates are to remain at current levels. These findings are novel as they link climate change effects on shifting cultivation systems to different slopes and fallow regimes, making an important contribution to understanding future erosion dynamics of traditional smallholder production systems in mountainous terrain, with relevant implications for policies on agricultural intensification.
    Language: English
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  • 17
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    In:  Climate of the Past
    Publication Date: 2024-01-25
    Description: In recent decades, numerous paleoclimate records and results of model simulations provided strong support to the astronomical theory of Quaternary glacial cycles formulated in its modern form by Milutin Milankovitch. At the same time, new findings revealed that the classical Milankovitch theory is unable to explain a number of important facts, such as the change of the dominant periodicity of glacial cycles from 41 kyr to 100 kyr about one million years ago. This transition was also accompanied by an increase in the amplitude and asymmetry of the glacial cycles. Here, based on the results of a hierarchy of models and data analysis, a framework of the extended (generalized) version of the Milankovitch theory is presented. To illustrate the main elements of this theory, a simple conceptual model of glacial cycles was developed using the results of an Earth system model CLIMBER-2. This conceptual model explicitly assumes the multistability of the climate-cryosphere system and the instability of the “supercritical” ice sheets. Using this model, it is shown that Quaternary glacial cycles can be successfully reproduced as the strongly-nonlinear response of the Earth system to the orbital forcing, where 100 kyr cyclicity originates from the phase-locking of the precession and obliquity-forced glacial cycles to the corresponding eccentricity cycle. The eccentricity influences glacial cycles solely through its amplitude modulation of the precession component of orbital forcing, while the long time scale of the late Quaternary glacial cycles is determined by the time required for ice sheets to reach their critical size. The postulates used to construct this conceptual model were justified using analysis of relevant physical and biogeochemical processes and feedbacks. In particular, the role of climate-ice sheet-carbon cycle feedback in shaping and globalization of glacial cycles is discussed. The reasons for the instability of the large northern ice sheets and the mechanisms of the Earth system escape from the “glacial trap” via a set of strongly nonlinear processes are presented. It is also shown that the transition from the 41 kyr to the 100 kyr world about one million years ago can be explained by a gradual increase in the critical size of ice sheets, which in turn is related to the gradual removal of terrestrial sediments from the northern continents. The implications of this nonlinear paradigm for understanding Quaternary climate dynamics and the remaining knowledge gaps are finally discussed.
    Language: English
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2024-01-25
    Description: Forage supply and soil organic carbon storage are two important ecosystem functions of permanent grasslands, which are determined by climatic conditions, management and functional diversity. However, functional diversity is not independent of climate and management, and it is important to understand the role of functional diversity and these dependencies for ecosystem functions of permanent grasslands. Especially since functional diversity may play a key role in mediating impacts of changing conditions. Large-scale ecosystem models are used to assess ecosystem functions within a consistent framework for multiple climate and management scenarios. However, large-scale models of permanent grasslands rarely consider functional diversity. We implemented a representation of functional diversity based on the CSR theory and the global spectrum of plant form and function into the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model forming LPJmL-CSR. Using a Bayesian calibration method, we parameterised new plant functional types and used these to assess forage supply, soil organic carbon storage and community composition of three permanent grassland sites. These are a temperate grassland, a hot and a cold steppe for which we simulated several management scenarios with different defoliation intensities and resource limitations. LPJmL-CSR captured the grassland dynamics well under observed conditions and showed improved results for forage supply and/or SOC compared to LPJmL 5.3 at three grassland sites. Furthermore, LPJmL-CSR was able to reproduce the trade-offs associated with the global spectrum of plant form and function and similar strategies emerged independent of the site specific conditions (e.g. the C- and R-PFTs were more resource exploitative than S-PFTs). Under different resource limitations, we observed a shift of the community composition. At the hot steppe for example, irrigation led to a more balanced community composition with similar C-, S- and R-PFT shares of above-ground biomass. Our results show, that LPJmL-CSR allows for explicit analysis of the adaptation of grassland vegetation to changing conditions while explicitly considering functional diversity. The implemented mechanisms and trade-offs are universally applicable paving the way for large-scale application. Applying LPJmL-CSR for different climate change and functional diversity scenarios may generate a range of future grassland productivity.
    Language: English
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: The Anthropocene signifies the start of a no-analogue trajectory of the Earth system that is fundamentally different from the Holocene. This new trajectory is characterized by rising risks of triggering irreversible and unmanageable shifts in Earth system functioning. We urgently need a new global approach to safeguard critical Earth system regulating functions more effectively and comprehensively. The global commons framework is the closest example of an existing approach with the aim of governing biophysical systems on Earth upon which the world collectively depends. Derived during stable Holocene conditions, the global commons framework must now evolve in the light of new Anthropocene dynamics. This requires a fundamental shift from a focus only on governing shared resources beyond national jurisdiction, to one that secures critical functions of the Earth system irrespective of national boundaries. We propose a new framework—the planetary commons—which differs from the global commons framework by including not only globally shared geographic regions but also critical biophysical systems that regulate the resilience and state, and therefore livability, on Earth. The new planetary commons should articulate and create comprehensive stewardship obligations through Earth system governance aimed at restoring and strengthening planetary resilience and justice.
    Language: English
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: Background: Rice predominate diets are common in Bangladesh, leading to widespread nutritional deficiencies. Objective: The Food and Agricultural Approaches to Reducing Malnutrition (FAARM) cluster-randomized controlled trial in rural Sylhet, Bangladesh, evaluated a homestead food production intervention implemented 2015-2018 through Helen Keller International, aiming to improve child growth (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT025-05711). We estimate the impact on women's and children's dietary diversity, a secondary trial objective. Methods: We calculated dietary diversity for women and children using standard measures from data collected throughout the trial (2015-2020). Our analysis included 28,282 observations of 2,701 women (out of 2,705 enrolled) and 17,445 observations of their 3,257 children (aged 6-37 months) in 96 settlements, 48 of which received the intervention. We estimated the intervention's impact on dietary diversity using multilevel regression, controlling for seasonality, baseline dietary diversity, and clustering by settlement and repeated measures. Results: Dietary diversity scores and the proportion of women and children classified as consuming minimally diverse diets varied greatly by season, peaking in May/June with 5.3 food groups for women (out of ten) and 3.8 food groups for children (out of seven). Over the entire intervention and post78 intervention period, women's and children's odds of consuming a minimally diverse diet nearly doubled (OR 1.8, p〈0.001, for both). This benefit was barely present in the first year of the intervention, increased in the second, and peaked in the last intervention year (OR 2.4 for women, OR 2.5 for children, both p〈0.001) before settling at around double the odds in post-intervention years (p〈0.001). Dietary improvement was observed throughout the 82 year for both women and children and driven through incremental increases in nearly all food groups. Conclusions: The nutrition-sensitive agriculture intervention successfully increased dietary diversity in women and children, and these impacts persisted after the project closed, including during the COVID-19 lockdown period.
    Language: English
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  • 21
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    In:  International Journal of Robust and Nonlinear Control
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: This article investigates the group consensus via pinning control for continuous-time first-order and second-order multi-agent systems (MASs) with reference states. For the group consensus of first-order MASs, the dependence between the agent's state and the control input is considered. For second-order MASs, group consensus control without the velocity information of agents is considered. Instead, the virtual velocity estimation controller is designed. Meanwhile, for the designed control protocols, not only under fixed topology, but also under switching topology are considered. It is demonstrated that group consensus could be obtained under the proposed control protocols by using graph theory and stability theory. Finally, a series of numerical examples are provided to verify the control performance of the propounded control protocols.
    Language: English
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: Safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for surface water and groundwater (blue water) have been defined for sustainable water management in the Anthropocene. Here we assessed whether minimum human needs could be met with surface water from within individual river basins alone and, where this is not possible, quantified how much groundwater would be required. Approximately 2.6 billion people live in river basins where groundwater is needed because they are already outside the surface water ESB or have insufficient surface water to meet human needs and the ESB. Approximately 1.4 billion people live in river basins where demand-side transformations would be required as they either exceed the surface water ESB or face a decline in groundwater recharge and cannot meet minimum needs within the ESB. A further 1.5 billion people live in river basins outside the ESB, with insufficient surface water to meet minimum needs, requiring both supply- and demand-side transformations. These results highlight the challenges and opportunities of meeting even basic human access needs to water and protecting aquatic ecosystems.
    Language: English
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: The Amazon rainforest is considered one of the Earth's tipping elements and may lose stability under ongoing climate change. Recently a decrease in tropical rainforest resilience has been identified globally from remotely sensed vegetation data. However, the underlying theory assumes a Gaussian distribution of forest disturbances, which is different from most observed forest stressors such as fires, deforestation, or windthrow. Those stressors often occur in power-law-like distributions and can be approximated by α-stable Lévy noise. Here, we show that classical critical slowing down indicators to measure changes in forest resilience are robust under such power-law disturbances. To assess the robustness of critical slowing down indicators, we simulate pulse-like perturbations in an adapted and conceptual model of a tropical rainforest. We find few missed early warnings and few false alarms are achievable simultaneously if the following steps are carried out carefully: First, the model must be known to resolve the timescales of the perturbation. Second, perturbations need to be filtered according to their absolute temporal autocorrelation. Third, critical slowing down has to be assessed using the non-parametric Kendall-τ slope. These prerequisites allow for an increase in the sensitivity of early warning signals. Hence, our findings imply improved reliability of the interpretation of empirically estimated rainforest resilience through critical slowing down indicators.
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: The inconsistent pattern of precipitation, a shift in the seasonality of river flows, and the early onset of snow and glacier melt in recent decades across river basins of High Mountain Asia (HMA) has compelled us to further investigate future variations in sources of runoff under projected climate change scenarios. This will help in determining the timing and magnitude of runoff components and this will help in management of future water resources. The current study employed the University of British Columbia Watershed Model (UBC WM) to estimate the spatiotemporal variations in simulated runoff components (i.e. snowmelt, glacier melt, rainfall-runoff, and baseflow) and their relative contribution to total runoff of Gilgit River regarding the baseline period (1981–2010) in near (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) under low (SSP1), medium (SSP2) and high (SSP5) emission scenarios. A significant increase in the magnitude of mean annual temperature and precipitation is expected in the near future (2021–2050) than far future (2071–2100) under most SSPs. Moreover, high-altitude stations of the Gilgit River basin are expected to experience more warming in the near and far future than low altitudes under all SSPs. On average, regarding the baseline period, the simulated runoff is projected to increase in the near (27%, 30%, and 33%) and far future (30%, 53%, and 91%) under SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5, respectively. Moreover, an early onset of snow/glacier melting is predicted in the far future due to an increase in summer air temperature and a decline in winter (DJF) precipitation. Besides, the rise in high altitude temperature is expected to cause the melting of snow/glaciers even above 6000 m elevation in the far future.
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2024-01-30
    Description: In this report, the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change recommends a series of actions to put the EU on track towards climate neutrality. Based on an assessment of more than 80 indicators, the Advisory Board found that more efforts are needed across all sectors to achieve the EU climate objectives from 2030 to 2050, and particularly in buildings, transport, agriculture and forestry. The Advisory Board acknowledges the potential of the Fit for 55 policy package to speed up EU’s decarbonisation, but warns that additional measures are imperative if the EU is to achieve its climate neutrality objective by 2050 at the latest. With this in mind, the Advisory Board outlines 13 key recommendations for a more effective implementation and design of the EU climate policy framework. This will require action in the coming years, both to effectively implement recently agreed legislation and to start preparations for the post-2030 climate policy framework.
    Language: English
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2024-01-30
    Description: Eine Teilung des deutschen Marktgebietes würde die Marktwerte erneuerbarer Energien beeinflussen. Wind und Photovoltaik (PV) im Süden Deutschlands würden an Wert gewinnen, während Erneuerbare im Norden Erlöse einbüßen würden. Bei einer auch zukünftig stärkeren Konzentration von erneuerbaren Energien im Norden bedeutet dies insgesamt einen höheren Förderbedarf für PV – Wind wäre trotz niedriger Marktwerte in den meisten Regionen wirtschaftlich. Wenn eine regionale Steuerung erreicht werden soll, müsste die auszuzahlende Förderung für neue PV-Anlagen anhand des zonenübergreifenden Referenzmarktwertes berechnet werden. Durchschnittliche Börsenstrompreise würden durch eine Gebotszonenteilung im Süden Deutschlands leicht angehoben und im Norden gesenkt, die Effekte auf Endkundenpreise und damit verbundene Anreize zur Standortwahl von Industrieunternehmen sind allerdings als gering einzuschätzen.
    Language: German
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2024-02-01
    Description: Deep, rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to limit future global temperature increases to 1·5°C above pre-industrial levels, but current progress is inadequate to achieve the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and to reduce future risks from climate change. Many actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions can also deliver near-term health co-benefits, for example from reduced air pollution, consumption of healthy diets, and increased physical activity. High-quality evidence on the type and magnitude of co-benefits that can be realised and improved knowledge of how to promote the implementation of such actions can support progress towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The Lancet Pathfinder Commission was established to collate and assess the evidence on the near-term health effects of greenhouse gas mitigation, including both modelling studies and evaluated implemented actions. The Commission's aim is to assess the potential and achieved magnitude of the benefits for health and climate of different mitigation actions and, where possible, the factors facilitating or impeding implementation.
    Language: English
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2024-02-01
    Description: The HERA high-resolution pan-European hydrological reanalysis (1950-2020) dataset is the result of a joint effort between the JRC and PIK to produce a long term hydrological reanalysis with downscaled and bias-corrected climate reanalysis (ERA5-land) and dynamic socioeconomic inputs. It includes maps of climate variables (evaporation, evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature), dynamic socioeconomic inputs (land use, water demand, reservoir maps) required for hydrological modelling with LISFLOOD and river discharge with European extent at 1 arc minute (~1.5 km) grid resolution and 6-hourly time step. The dataset builds on recent development within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) associated to the EFAS v5.0 reanalysis (http://data.europa.eu/89h/76b4b9de-a5c6-4344-8d88-c4bed7752ce3), notably the LISFLOOD static and parameters maps for Europe (http://data.europa.eu/89h/f572c443-7466-4adf-87aa-c0847a169f23) and the EMO (European Meteorological Observations) dataset (http://data.europa.eu/89h/0bd84be4-cec8-4180-97a6-8b3adaac4d26). HERA also benefits from major improvements to the open-source hydrological model LISFLOOD and a new model calibration. Furthermore, for ungauged catchments, a parameter regionalization was performed transferring parameter sets from donor catchments based on spatial and climatological proximity to ensure the best possible simulation of river flows for all catchments in the European domain. Along with improved resolution and modelling performances, the length of the modelled period (71 years) and the inclusion of dynamic socioeconomic conditions enables the analysis of hydrological dynamics related to extremes, human influences, and climate change at a continental scale while keeping local relevance. Detailed technical information on the dataset can be found in the associated scientific article (under review).
    Language: English
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2024-02-02
    Description: This study examines how the expansion of mobile phone networks affects rural development in Mongolia. The database is a detailed household panel survey with four waves implemented in western Mongolia, spanning the 2012-2021 period, which we combine with data on mobile phone towers. Our identification strategy exploits the uneven roll-out of mobile phone networks across rural areas over time. Using a two-way fixed effects approach, we show that network expansion strongly and significantly increases total household income of pastoralist households. The effect is driven by increased income from agriculture, particularly by higher producer prices for animal byproducts, improved access to transfer income, and increased household mobility. The expansion of mobile phone networks decreases income diversification among pastoralists. Instead, households specialize in agriculture. While findings suggest that investments in telecommunication infrastructure can help rural households to sustain a livelihood in the agricultural sector, the specialization in agriculture may increase households’ vulnerability to climate change.
    Language: English
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2024-02-08
    Description: With ongoing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the Greenland ice sheet approaches critical thresholds of inevitable, long-term mass loss. Future technologies might be able to efficiently remove CO2 from the atmosphere and thereby cool down our planet. We explore whether and to what extent a realization of this concept could lead to a regrowth of the Greenland ice sheet once it has partly melted. Using the fully coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X, emission pulses between 0 and 4000 GtC are released into the atmosphere, and 1 kyr, 2 kyr, and 5 kyr, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is reduced back to its pre-industrial value. We find that independent of a specific trajectory, once the southern part of the Greenland ice sheet has partly melted with a total mass loss of more than 0.4 m sea level equivalent, regrowth is inhibited. Uncertainties preclude determination of precise thresholds, but model results indicate that cumulative industrial-era emissions approaching 1000 to 1500 GtC and beyond increasingly risk irreversible mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet. Once this threshold is passed, artificial atmospheric carbon removal would need to be utilised within the next centuries at massive scale. Beyond that, artificial atmospheric carbon removal has limited abilities to avoid long-term mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet. In conclusion, keeping cumulative anthropogenic emissions below 1000 to 1500 GtC is the only safe way to avoid irreversible mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet.
    Language: English
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2024-02-08
    Description: Traditionally, power grids have relied on synchronous generators, large rotating masses, for energy supply and stability. Currently, renewable energy sources, connected via programmable machines called inverters, are beginning to take the lead. Understanding the changes of grid dynamics brought by these new actors is crucial for a successful energy transition. Modern power grids, with components like solar cells, wind parks and batteries, present a challenge in ensuring stability. To address this complexity, the authors introduce a universal model, offering a surprisingly simple yet robust representation of the entire grid. This model enables the description of systems with different agents through a rather simple system of differential equations. Using analytical tools from various fields, such as dynamical systems, networks, and control theory, it is expected to enable universal statements about the stability of large, interconnected power systems. As a demonstration, a control law is developed to stabilize the power grid in extreme conditions, ensuring a stable energy supply even as power grids become more complex.
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  • 32
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    In:  Physical Review E
    Publication Date: 2024-02-08
    Description: We study the dynamics of a piecewise-linear second-order delay differential equation that is representative of feedback systems with relays (switches) that actuate after a fixed delay. The system under study exhibits strong multirhythmicity, the coexistence of many stable periodic solutions for the same values of the parameters. We present a detailed study of these periodic solutions and their bifurcations. Starting from an integrodifferential model, we show how to reduce the system to a set of finite-dimensional maps. We then demonstrate that the parameter regions of existence of periodic solutions can be understood in terms of discontinuity-induced bifurcations and their stability is determined by smooth bifurcations. Using this technique, we are able to show that slowly oscillating solutions are always stable if they exist. We also demonstrate the coexistence of stable periodic solutions with quasiperiodic solutions.
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2024-02-08
    Description: Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere, or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While un- certainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades can neither be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5–2.0◦C, nor on shorter timescales if global warming would surpass 2.0◦C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies forward combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge.
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2024-02-13
    Description: Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to climate change, the impacts of which can be felt across different sectors. In particular forests are threatened by rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns and extreme weather events. Human activities like deforestation and land-use change further exacerbate climate impacts, increasing the risk of wildfires and reducing the potential of forests for carbon sequestration. However, forests and trees are of major importance for ecosystems and local communities, providing plant and animal habitat, protection against soil erosion, provision of sufficient water resources, wood for fuel and construction, and various non-timber products. In addition, climate change is increasingly impacting water resources through prolonged and more frequent droughts, leading to water scarcity, crop failures and food insecurity for millions of people in Ethiopia. At the same time, erratic and heavy precipitation events lead to increased instances of flooding and soil erosion, further compromising water availability and quality. In a similar way, soils are impacted by climate change, with temperature increases and shifting precipitation patterns leading to soil degradation and reduced soil fertility, making it harder for smallholder farmers to pursue agriculture as a livelihood. Forests and trees are particularly threatened by climate change. At the same time, they are key in both climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. Against this background, this policy brief discusses the potential of forests and trees in addressing climate change, specifically looking at natural forest regeneration as a mitigation strategy and at agroforestry as an adaptation strategy, highlighting the unique potential of forests and trees to achieve a dual benefit for climate action. Although these strategies are considered in greater detail, it should be noted that there is no single best mitigation or adaptation strategy, but rather different mutually complementing strategies. Mitigation describes efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as measures to enhance greenhouse gas sinks. Forest and tree-based mitigation options can be classified as efforts to maintain the remaining forest cover (reduce deforestation and degradation), and measures to increase forest cover (natural regeneration and reforestation) (Nabuurs et al., 2007). We briefly describe each strategy but focus on natural regeneration later on.
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2024-02-13
    Description: Agricultural sustainability faces challenges in the changing climate, particularly for rain-fed systems like those in Ethiopia. This study examines the combined impacts of climate change and soil acidity on future crop potential, focusing on Ethiopia as a case study. The EcoCrop crop suitability model was parameterized and run for four key food crops in Ethiopia (teff, maize, barley and common wheat), under current and mid-century climate conditions. To assess the impacts of soil acidification on crop suitability, a simulation study was conducted by lowering the soil pH values by 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 and re-running the suitability model, comparing the changes in the area suitable for each crop. Our evaluation of the model, by comparing the modeled suitable areas with reference data, indicated that there was a good fit for all the four crops. Using default soil pH values, we project that there will be no significant changes in the suitability of maize, barley and wheat and an increase in the suitability of teff by the mid-century, as influenced by projected increases in rainfall in the country. Our results demonstrate a direct relationship between the lowering of soil pH and increasing losses in the area suitable for all crops, but especially for teff, barley and wheat. We conclude that soil acidification can have a strong impact on crop suitability in Ethiopia under climate change, and precautionary measures to avoid soil acidification should be a key element in the design of climate change adaptation strategies.
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2024-02-15
    Description: Die Energiewende sorgt für einen Paradigmenwechsel von einem grundlastbasierten zu einem flexiblen Stromsystem. Die zentralen Treiber für den zunehmenden Flexibilitätsbedarf sind die Stromerzeugung durch Wind und Sonne sowie die weiterhin bestehende unflexible Stromnachfrage, die gedeckt werden muss. Die vorliegende Studie analysiert, wie im Zeitverlauf bis zum Jahr 2045 der Flexibilitätsbedarf zunimmt und wie die Betriebsweisen der verschiedenen Technologien sich anpassen können. In der Studie wird auf das Energiesystemmodell REMod zurückgegriffen, mit dem eine Analyse über die intersektorale Flexibilität bis zum Jahr 2045 möglich ist. Für kurzfristige Flexibilität können in dieser Betrachtung zum Beispiel Batterien sowie Stromimporte und -exporte eingesetzt werden. Durch die Sektorenkopplung kann bei der Wärmebereitstellung in Gebäuden ebenfalls ein erheblich angepasstes Lastmanagement erfolgen. Ein höherer Anteil an Flexibilität kann jedoch durch Stromaufnahme in Elektrolyseanlagen und die Nutzung von Power-to-X-Kraftstoffen erfolgen. So können während längerer Dunkelflauten flexible Backup-Gasturbinen eingesetzt werden, um die Versorgungssicherheit zu gewährleisten. Um die notwendige Integration der Flexibilitäts-Technologien in den verschiedenen Märkten (insbesondere Strommarkt) und Sektoren voranzutreiben, müssen technische Voraussetzung, Marktregeln sowie Regulatorik in Bezug auf Bau und Betrieb so angepasst werden, dass die Technologien ihr Flexibilitätspotential bestmöglich ausspielen können.
    Language: German
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2024-02-15
    Description: Mit steigendem Anteil fluktuierender Erneuerbarer Energien im Stromsystem steigt auch der Bedarf an steuerbaren Kapazitäten, die Stromangebot und -nachfrage ausgleichen können, so genannte Flexibilitätstechnologien. In dieser Analyse wird der Nutzen von zehn verschiedenen Technologien, die Flexibilität bereitstellen können, für das deutsche Stromsystem im Jahr 2030 ermittelt. Die Nutzenanalyse macht deutlich, dass die Verschiebung von großen Energiemengen über einen längeren Zeitraum (saisonaler Ausgleich) den höchsten spezifischen Nutzen erreicht. Eine Schlüsseltechnologie für das Jahr 2030 sind daher Langzeitspeicher mit großen Speichervolumen, zum Beispiel in Form von Wasserstoff-Kavernenspeichern. Das Fehlen einer hierfür geeigneten Technologie würde zu hohen Effizienzverlusten führen. Die zweite Schlüsseltechnologie ist die steuerbare Leistung von Power-to-Heat1 in Wärmenetzen der allgemeinen Versorgung, die für den täglichen Ausgleich zwischen Nachfrage und erneuerbarer Erzeugung eingesetzt wird. Hier können allerdings auch andere nachfrageseitige Flexibilitäten eine ähnliche Funktion für das Stromsystem übernehmen. Die Analyse zeigt auch, dass die Erschließung der hier betrachteten Flexibilitätstechnologien, zum Beispiel durch den Abbau von regulatorischen Hemmnissen, bis zum Jahr 2030 für das Stromsystem von hoher Relevanz ist. Auch über die angenommenen Potentialgrenzen hinaus bieten insbesondere nachfrageseitige Flexibilitätstechnologien noch einen positiven Nutzen. Eine technologieoffene, marktbasierte Lösung zur Einbindung dieser Flexibilitäten könnte die unterschiedlichen Charakteristika, Nutzenniveaus sowie sich ändernde Rahmenbedingungen effizient berücksichtigen.
    Language: German
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2024-02-23
    Description: Shimmy dynamics of a dual-wheel nose landing gear system with torsional freeplay under stochastic lateral wind disturbances is studied. Dynamic characteristics of the deterministic case are numerically analysed, especially the shimmy of the landing gear through bifurcation analysis. Meanwhile, the influences of the freeplay nonlinearity on shimmy behaviours are examined in detail. We found that the freeplay leads to an enlargement of the shimmy area and an enhancement of the shimmy characteristics compared to the case without freeplay. Furthermore, impacts of stochastic lateral wind disturbances on the shimmy of the landing gear system are estimated via time history and recurrence plots. We find that the stochastic excitation enhances shimmy of the lateral bending direction. More interestingly, the stochastic excitation strengthens the effect of the freeplay nonlinearity, which causes random intermittent large-amplitude oscillations in the torsional direction. Our results show that the interaction between the freeplay nonlinearity and the random load induces a significant reduction in the critical shimmy velocity, which has an adverse impact on the stability of the nose landing gear of an aircraft. This work will provide an insightful guidance for the design of landing gear parameters in engineering practice.
    Language: English
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2024-02-22
    Description: A new resilient distributed secondary control for AC microgrids is studied based on event-triggered mechanisms and trust-reputation evaluation methods. When distributed generators (DGs) in a microgrid are subject to attacks, their transmitted state information would be tampered and thus affect the dynamics of normal generators. In order to isolate possible attacks, two types of trust evaluation metrics with different attack indices and time scales are designed, by which the performance of neighboring DGs can be assessed for specific practical demands. Based on the trust values of each neighbor, a reputation-propagation method is introduced at triggered time instants to determine whether a DG is under attack by comprehensively incorporating the opinion of mutual neighbors. The dynamic updating law of the communication edge weights is utilized with the derived reputation values. Based on this, a distributed Zeno-free event-triggered control protocols for voltage/frequency restoration and active power sharing are proposed. Sufficient conditions for picking proper control parameters are given in the main theorem. Lastly, the simulations are conducted in MATLAB/SimPowerSystems for several scenarios to validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.
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  • 40
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    In:  The Journal of Development Studies
    Publication Date: 2024-02-22
    Description: This paper analyses poverty dynamics and checks for the existence of poverty traps among refugee and host communities living close to each other in Uganda. Although some non-linearities emerge in asset dynamics, there is convergence towards one stable equilibrium for the whole sample that suggests the existence of a structural poverty trap. However, households are quite heterogeneous: when analysing refugees and hosts separately, refugees converge to a lower own-group equilibrium than hosts. The household size and education are asset growth enablers for both communities. Noticeably, access to land, past history and social cohesion are also significant correlates of refugees’ asset dynamics. From a policy perspective, structural poverty traps are bad news, because standard anti-poverty interventions would not unlock the trap. Our results stress the need of more structural approaches aimed at promoting economic growth in the whole area where refugee and host communities live, targeting both communities.
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2024-02-22
    Description: Die schnelle und umfassende Emissionsminderung in der Energie- und Kreislaufwirtschaft ist der Schlüssel für die Begrenzung der Erderwärmung auf unter 2 °C. In Deutschland werden entsprechende Politiken seit den 1990er-Jahren verfolgt, allerdings erst in jüngster Vergangenheit mit dem notwendigen Nachdruck und der notwendigen Orientierung hin zu mehr Marktmechanismen. Wesentliche Handlungsfelder sind Energieeinsparung und erhöhte Energieeffizienz, Umstieg auf erneuerbare Energien, Bepreisung von Klimagasen sowie eine Reduzierung und Schließung der Stoffkreisläufe. In allen Handlungsfeldern sind Grundlagen geschaffen, es bleibt jedoch der Großteil des Weges noch zu gehen, um Klimaneutralität zu erreichen. Für einen schnellen Fortschritt spielen neben der Überwindung der technischen, ökonomischen und organisatorischen Herausforderungen auch Verteilungsfragen und die Einbettung in internationale Maßnahmen eine zunehmende Rolle.
    Language: German
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2024-02-22
    Description: Recent research on environmental inequality has extended its focus from ongoing pollution to legacy pollution by examining the geography of industrial brownfields, defined as non-productive, contaminated land. This article is the first extensive brownfield analysis for a European country from an environmental inequality perspective, exploiting the political momentum in France where brownfield restoration has become a national priority. We combine data on over 7200 industrial brownfields from the 2022 geodatabase ‘Cartofriches’ with socio-economic variables at the municipality level. We demonstrate that communities with higher percentages of foreign-born and unemployed persons are disproportionately more likely to be located in proximity to brownfields. The social gradient increases significantly in communities that host more than two brownfields. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship with income, with a turning point at approximately 25,600 annually. These findings are robust across urban and rural areas, though with regional differences. Our analysis provides entry points for restorative environmental justice considerations and has important implications for Europe's just transition and cohesion policies.
    Language: English
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2024-02-22
    Description: Precipitation is essential for food production in Sub-Saharan Africa, where more than 80 % of agriculture is rainfed. Although ∼40 % of precipitation in certain regions is recycled moisture from Africa's tropical rainforest, there needs to be more knowledge about how this moisture supports the continent's agriculture. In this study, we quantify all moisture sources for agrarian precipitation (African agricultural precipitationshed), the estimates of African rainforest's moisture contribution to agricultural precipitation, and the evaporation from agricultural land across the continent. Applying a moisture tracking model (UTRACK) and a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJmL), we find that the Congo rainforest (〉60 % tree cover) is a crucial moisture source for many agricultural regions. Although most of the rainforest acreage is in the DRC, many neighboring nations rely significantly on rainforest moisture for their rainfed agriculture, and even in remote places, rainforest moisture accounts for ∼10–20 % of agricultural water use. Given continuous deforestation and climate change, which impact rainforest areas and resilience, more robust governance for conserving the Congo rainforest is necessary to ensure future food production across multiple Sub-Saharan African countries.
    Language: English
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2024-02-22
    Description: Renewable electricity can facilitate climate change mitigation in the buildings, industry and transport sector via direct electrification or indirect electrification, that is, converting electricity to hydrogen-based fuels. While direct electrification is generally energy efficient, indirect electrification can partially build upon existing applications and infrastructure. However, their roles and relative importance have not been well researched in mitigation scenarios. Here, we derive plausible ranges for both strategies based on EU climate neutrality scenarios using the REMIND model. We find that by 2050 direct electrification is the dominant strategy with an electricity share of 42%–60% in final energy, while indirect electrification is necessary in hard-to-electrify sectors and contributes a share of 9%–26%. Our analysis highlights that policy makers should respect the distinct sectoral roles of both strategies by fostering an end-use transformation towards direct electrification while prioritizing hydrogen and synthetic fuels for applications where they are indispensable.
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2024-02-28
    Description: Weather forecasts can enhance the utilization of scientific irrigation scheduling tools, crucial for maximizing agricultural water use efficiency. This study employed quantitative weather forecasts of 3-, 7- and 14-day lead times from a weather application programming interface (API) to generate irrigation schedules using the AquaCrop-OSPy model for maize, cotton and sorghum under different regulated deficit irrigation scenarios. The study aimed to determine the suitability of forecast lengths for irrigation scheduling under varying pumping capacities of center pivots (114 m3h−1, 182 m3 h−1 and 250 m3 h−1) in the Texas High Plains and Rio Grande Basin regions, United States. A comparative analysis was carried out to evaluate the irrigation schedules and corresponding crop yields simulated using forecasted and observed weather data. Results indicated that using shorter forecast time allowed the crop model to capture more precise variations in weather patterns, however, shorter lead times also caused over-irrigation in some scenarios. Use of longer lead times tended to be less suitable for scheduling irrigation during water-sensitive growth stages. Center pivots with large pumping capacities and application rates benefited more from longer forecast lengths due to their ability to adapt to weather fluctuations. Unplanned irrigation application occurred in some instances, primarily attributed to uncertainties in weather forecasts and limitations of the crop model. The approach developed and evaluated in this study supports water conservation efforts by promoting scientific irrigation scheduling in weather-data-poor and low adoption regions.
    Language: English
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2024-02-28
    Description: The Nile basin is the second largest basin in Africa and one of the regions experiencing high climatic diversity with variability of precipitation and deteriorating water resources. As climate change is affecting most of the hydroclimatic variables across the world, this study assesses whether historical changes in river flow and sediment loads at selected gauges in the Nile basin can be attributed to climate change. An impact attribution approach is employed by constraining a process-based model with a set of factual and counterfactual climate forcing data for 69 years (1951–2019), from the impact attribution setup of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). To quantify the role of climate change, we use the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test to identify trends and calculate the differences in long-term mean annual river flow and sediment load simulations between a model setup using factual and counterfactual climate forcing data. Results for selected river stations in the Lake Victoria basin show reasonable evidence of a long-term historical increase in river flows (two stations) and sediment load (one station), largely attributed to changes in climate. In contrast, within the Blue Nile and Main Nile basins, there is a slight decrease of river flows at four selected stations under factual climate, which can be attributed to climate change, but no significant changes in sediment load (one station). These findings show spatial differences in the impacts of climate change on river flows and sediment load in the study area for the historical period.
    Language: English
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2024-02-28
    Description: Correlation does not necessarily imply causation, and this is why causal methods have been developed to try to disentangle true causal links from spurious relationships. In our study, we use two causal methods, namely, the Liang–Kleeman information flow (LKIF) and the Peter and Clark momentary conditional independence (PCMCI) algorithm, and we apply them to four different artificial models of increasing complexity and one real-world case study based on climate indices in the Atlantic and Pacific regions. We show that both methods are superior to the classical correlation analysis, especially in removing spurious links. LKIF and PCMCI display some strengths and weaknesses for the three simplest models, with LKIF performing better with a smaller number of variables and with PCMCI being best with a larger number of variables. Detecting causal links from the fourth model is more challenging as the system is nonlinear and chaotic. For the real-world case study with climate indices, both methods present some similarities and differences at monthly timescale. One of the key differences is that LKIF identifies the Arctic Oscillation (AO) as the largest driver, while the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main influencing variable for PCMCI. More research is needed to confirm these links, in particular including nonlinear causal methods.
    Language: English
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2024-02-28
    Description: The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system1. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.
    Language: English
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  • 49
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    Unknown
    RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
    In:  Ruhr Economic Papers
    Publication Date: 2024-03-05
    Description: Anticipatory humanitarian assistance is a novel approach to aid in the context of weather disasters, drawing on meteorological forecasts. Using a randomized study design, we analyze the impact of anticipatory cash transfers distributed to pastoralist households in Mongolia during an extreme winter event. We do not find overall effects on livestock assets, income, investments, or consumption across the study population. No heterogenous effects are found for different levels of disaster intensity. However, there is robust evidence that cash transfers benefited households with lower pre-treatment wealth. The paper concludes by highlighting practical challenges in evaluating (anticipatory) humanitarian interventions.
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2024-03-05
    Description: Large gaps remain in our understanding of the vulnerability of specific animal taxa and regions to climate change, especially regarding extreme climate impact events. Here, we assess African apes, flagship and highly important umbrella species for sympatric biodiversity. We estimated past (1981–2010) and future exposure to climate change impacts across 363 sites in Africa for RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 for near term (2021–2050) and long term (2071–2099). We used fully harmonized climate data and data on extreme climate impact events from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Historic data show that 171 sites had positive temperature anomalies for at least nine of the past ten years with the strongest anomalies (up to 0.56°C) estimated for eastern chimpanzees. Climate projections suggest that temperatures will increase across all sites, while precipitation changes are more heterogeneous. We estimated a future increase in heavy precipitation events for 288 sites, and an increase in the number of consecutive dry days by up to 20 days per year (maximum increase estimated for eastern gorillas). All sites will be frequently exposed to wildfires and crop failures in the future, and the latter could impact apes indirectly through increased deforestation. 84% of sites are projected to be exposed to heatwaves and 78% of sites to river floods. Tropical cyclones and droughts were only projected for individual sites in western and central Africa. We further compiled available evidence on how climate change impacts could affect apes, for example, through heat stress and dehydration, a reduction in water sources and fruit trees, and reduced physiological performance, body condition, fertility, and survival. To support necessary research on the sensitivity and adaptability of African apes to climate change impacts, and the planning and implementation of conservation measures, we provide detailed results for each ape site on the open-access platform A.P.E.S. Wiki.
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  • 51
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    In:  Making the European Green Deal Work. EU Sustainability Policies at Home and Abroad
    Publication Date: 2024-03-06
    Description: The EU and its member countries have been laggards in using forest carbon to reduce EU emissions. The European Green Deal aims to change this. As part of its long-term emissions reductions, the EU aims to offset this by creating land-based carbon sinks, especially forest carbon sinks as well as carbon capture and storage. This chapter focuses on the role of forest carbon as part of the EU's climate policies towards achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. It furthermore examines the European Commission's proposed forest strategy and its proposal for a revised LULUCF Regulation. The chapter shows that the logic of appropriateness dominates the European Commission's forest policies. Finally, the chapter makes policy recommendations on how the EU could credibly use long-term carbon sinks to achieve climate neutrality.
    Language: English
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2024-03-08
    Description: Weather extremes are challenging the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 2) – Zero Hunger globally and, most notably, in West Africa where it is further aggravated by rapid population growth. Here we present a stylized stochastic food production model to show how optimal crop allocations change depending on food security risk targets. To guarantee stable livelihoods for farmers, we examine the viability of a contingency fund that supports farmers in the event of low crop yields. Applied to the West African context, accounting for weather variability can substantially improve the reliability of the food supply and boost the fiscal sustainability of a contingency fund. Yet, setting reliability targets for food security is costly and leaves high residual risk in certain regions. Spatial risk-sharing through regional cooperation at the West African scale can eliminate the risk of insufficient food supply and further enhance the fund solvency.
    Language: English
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2024-03-08
    Description: Rising seas are a threat to human and natural systems along coastlines. The relation between global warming and sea level rise is established, but the quantification of impacts of historical sea level rise on a global scale is largely absent. To foster such quantification, here we present a reconstruction of historical hourly (1979–2015) and monthly (1900–2015) coastal water levels and a corresponding counterfactual without long-term trends in sea level. The dataset pair allows for impact attribution studies that quantify the contribution of sea level rise to observed changes in coastal systems following the definition of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Impacts are ultimately caused by water levels that are relative to the local land height, which makes the inclusion of vertical land motion a necessary step. Also, many impacts are driven by sub-daily extreme water levels. To capture these aspects, the factual data combine reconstructed geocentric sea level on a monthly timescale since 1900, vertical land motion since 1900 and hourly storm-tide variations since 1979. The inclusion of observation-based vertical land motion brings the trends of the combined dataset closer to tide gauge records in most cases, but outliers remain. Daily maximum water levels get in closer agreement with tide gauges through the inclusion of intra-annual ocean density variations. The counterfactual data are derived from the factual data through subtraction of the quadratic trend. The dataset is made available openly through the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) at https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.749905 (Treu et al., 2023a).
    Language: English
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2024-03-12
    Description: Im Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne wurden zufällig ausgewählte Bürgerinnen und Bürger aus ganz Deutschland in einem Forschungs- und Lernprozess zur Verkehrs- und Stromwende beteiligt. Dieser Lernprozess eröffnete neue Begegnungs- und Reflexionsräume, in denen Forschende und Bürger:innen über verschiedene Politikoptionen zur Energie- und Verkehrswende diskutieren konnten.
    Language: German
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2024-03-14
    Description: Investigating the correlations between time series is a fundamental approach to reveal the hidden mechanisms in complex systems. However, the estimated correlations often show time-dependent behaviors, which may create uncertainty for decision-making in various scenarios. Thus, forecasting the evolution of these varying correlations may be helpful, but it is still unsolved entirely. We bridge this gap by proposing a data-driven framework: (a) we first embed all the pairwise correlations within a complex system into multivariate correlation-based series by sliding windows; (b) we then identify two different low-dimensional representations of multivariate correlation-based series through delay embedding and dimensionality reduction; (c) finally, multistep ahead predictions of varying correlations can be achieved by training a mapping between two low-dimensional representations. Both model and real-world systems are used to illustrate our framework, including finance, neuroscience, and climate. Our framework is robust and has the potential to be used for other complex systems. Hopefully, forecasting the evolution of correlations in complex systems can be a useful complementary, since existing works mainly focus on the predictions of components within the systems.
    Language: English
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2024-03-14
    Description: Crop models are essential tools for assessing the impact of climate change on national or regional agricultural production. Starting from meteorology, soil and crop management, fertilization and irrigation practices, they predict the yield of specific crop varieties. For long term assessments, climate models are the source of primary information. To make climate model results usable in a specific time frame context, bias adjustment (BA) is required. In fact, climate models tend to deviate from day-to-day values of the physical parameters while conserving the climate variability signal. BA brings the climatic signal to the actual values observed in a specific location and period, and to be representative of a specific period in absolute terms. BA techniques come in different flavours. The broadest categorization is univariate and multivariate methods. Multivariate methods adjust the variables considering possible cross-correlations while univariate methods treat the variables one by one without accounting for possible dependence on one another.
    Language: English
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  • 57
    Publication Date: 2024-03-14
    Description: The emergence of the evolutionary game on complex networks provides a fresh framework for studying cooperation behavior between complex populations. Numerous recent progress has been achieved in studying asymmetric games. However, there is still a substantial need to address how to flexibly express the individual asymmetric nature. In this paper, we employ mutual cognition among individuals to elucidate the asymmetry inherent in their interactions. Cognition arises from individuals’ subjective assessments and significantly influences their decision-making processes. In social networks, mutual cognition among individuals is a persistent phenomenon and frequently displays heterogeneity as the influence of their interactions. This unequal cognitive dynamic will, in turn, influence the interactions, culminating in asymmetric outcomes. To better illustrate the inter-individual cognition in asymmetric snowdrift games, the concept of favor value is introduced here. On this basis, the evolution of cognition and its relationship with asymmetry degree are defined. In our simulation, we investigate how game cost and the intensity of individual cognitive changes impact the cooperation frequency. Furthermore, the temporal evolution of individual cognition and its variation under different parameters was also examined. The simulation results reveal that the emergence of heterogeneous cognition effectively addresses social dilemmas, with asymmetric interactions among individuals enhancing the propensity for cooperative choices. It is noteworthy that distinctions exist in the rules governing cooperation and cognitive evolution between regular networks and Watts–Strogatz small-world networks. In light of this, we deduce the relationship between cognition evolution and cooperative behavior in co-evolution and explore potential factors influencing cooperation within the system.
    Language: English
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2024-03-14
    Description: We study three different strategies of vaccination in an SEIRS (Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered–Susceptible) seasonal forced model, which are (⁠ ⁠) continuous vaccination; (⁠ ⁠) periodic short-time localized vaccination, and (⁠ ⁠) periodic pulsed width campaign. Considering the first strategy, we obtain an expression for the basic reproduction number and infer a minimum vaccination rate necessary to ensure the stability of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) solution. In the second strategy, short duration pulses are added to a constant baseline vaccination rate. The pulse is applied according to the seasonal forcing phases. The best outcome is obtained by locating intensive immunization at inflection of the transmissivity curve. Therefore, a vaccination rate of of susceptible individuals is enough to ensure DFE. For the third vaccination proposal, additionally to the amplitude, the pulses have a prolonged time width. We obtain a non-linear relationship between vaccination rates and the duration of the campaign. Our simulations show that the baseline rates, as well as the pulse duration, can substantially improve the vaccination campaign effectiveness. These findings are in agreement with our analytical expression. We show a relationship between the vaccination parameters and the accumulated number of infected individuals, over the years, and show the relevance of the immunization campaign annual reaching for controlling the infection spreading. Regarding the dynamical behavior of the model, our simulations show that chaotic and periodic solutions as well as bi-stable regions depend on the vaccination parameters range.
    Language: English
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2024-03-14
    Description: Operating within safe and just Earth system boundaries requires mobilizing key actors across scale to set targets and take actions accordingly. Robust, transparent and fair cross-scale translation methods are essential to help navigate through the multiple steps of scientific and normative judgements in translation, with clear awareness of associated assumptions, bias and uncertainties. Here, through literature review and expert elicitation, we identify commonly used sharing approaches, illustrate ten principles of translation and present a protocol involving key building blocks and control steps in translation. We pay particular attention to businesses and cities, two understudied but critical actors to bring on board.
    Language: English
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2024-03-14
    Description: Oscillatory instability emerges amidst turbulent states in experiments in various turbulent fluid and thermo-fluid systems such as aero-acoustic, thermoacoustic and aeroelastic systems. For the time series of the relevant dynamic variable at the onset of the oscillatory instability, universal scaling behaviors have been discovered in experiments via the Hurst exponent and certain spectral measures. By means of a center manifold reduction, the spatiotemporal dynamics of these real systems can be mapped to a complex Ginzburg–Landau equation with a linear global coupling. In this work, we show that this model is able to capture the universal behaviors of the route to oscillatory instability, elucidating it as a transition from defect to phase turbulence mediated by the global coupling.
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  • 61
    Publication Date: 2024-03-14
    Description: Crop models are often used to project future crop yield under climate and global change and typically show a broad range of outcomes. To understand differences in modeled responses, we analysed modeled crop yield response types using impact response surfaces along four drivers of crop yield: carbon dioxide (C), temperature (T), water (W), and nitrogen (N). Crop yield response types help to understand differences in simulated responses per driver and their combinations rather than aggregated changes in yields as the result of simultaneous changes in various drivers. We find that models’ sensitivities to the individual drivers are substantially different and often more different across models than across regions. There is some agreement across models with respect to the spatial patterns of response types but strong differences in the distribution of response types across models and their configurations suggests that models need to undergo further scrutiny. We suggest establishing standards in model evaluation based on emergent functionality not only against historical yield observations but also against dedicated experiments across different drivers to analyze emergent functional patterns of crop models.
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  • 62
    Publication Date: 2024-03-14
    Description: Flood losses have steadily increased in the past and are expected to grow even further owing to climate and socioeconomic change. The reduction of flood vulnerability, for example, through adaptation, plays a key role in the mitigation of future flood risk. However, lacking knowledge about vulnerability dynamics, which arise from the interaction between floods and the ensuing response by society, limits the scope of current risk projections. We present a socio-hydrological method for flood risk assessment that simulates the interaction between society and flooding continuously, including changes in vulnerability through collective (structural) and private (non structural) measures. Our probabilistic approach quantifies uncertainties and exploits empirical data to chart risk dynamics including how society copes with flooding. In a case study for the commercial sector in Dresden, Germany, we show that increased adaptation is necessary to counteract the expected four-fold growth in flood risk due to transient hydroclimatic and socioeconomic boundary conditions. We further use our holistic approach to identify solutions for effective long-term adaptation, demonstrating that integrated adaptation strategies (i.e., combined structural and non structural measures) can reduce the average risk by up to 60% at the study site. Ultimately, our case study highlights the benefit of the model for robust flood risk assessment as it can capture unintended, adverse feedbacks of adaptation measures such as the levee effect. Consequently, our socio-hydrological method contributes to a more systemic and reliable flood risk assessment that can inform adaptation planning by exploring the possible system evolutions comprehensively including unlikely futures.
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2024-03-15
    Description: Despite their importance, wetland ecosystems protected through the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands are under pressure from climate change and human activities. These drivers are altering water availability in these wetlands, changing water levels or surface extent, in some cases, beyond historical variability. Attribution of the effects of human and climate activities is usually focused on changes within the wetlands or their upstream surface and groundwater inputs. However, the reliance of wetland water availability on upwind atmospheric moisture supply is less understood. Here, we assess the vulnerability of 40 Ramsar wetland basins to precipitation changes caused by land use and hydroclimatic changes occurring in their upwind moisture-supplying regions. We use moisture flows from a Lagrangian tracking model, atmospheric reanalysis data, and historical land use change data to assess and quantify these changes. Our analyses show that historical land use change decreased precipitation and terrestrial moisture recycling in most wetland hydrological basins, accompanied by decreasing surface water availability (precipitation minus evaporation) in some wetlands. The most substantial effects on wetland water availability occurred in the tropical and subtropical regions of Central Europe and Asia. Overall, we found wetlands in Asia and South America to be especially threatened by a combination of land use change-driven effects on runoff, high terrestrial precipitation recycling, and recently decreasing surface water availability. This study stresses the need to incorporate upwind effects of land use changes in the restoration, management and conservation of the world’s wetlands.
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2024-03-15
    Description: The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity. Inspired by what some have called a polycrisis, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of trap for humanity. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we present results from a participatory mapping. We identify 14 traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences.
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  • 65
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    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)
    Publication Date: 2024-03-21
    Description: Renewable power generation is the key to decarbonizing the electricity system. Wind power is the fastest-growing renewable source of electricity in the United States. However, expanding wind capacity often faces local opposition, partly due to a perceived visual disamenity from large wind turbines. Here, we provide a US-wide assessment of the externality costs of wind power generation through the visibility impact on property values. To this end, we create a database on wind turbine visibility, combining information on the site and height of each utility-scale turbine having fed power into the U.S. grid, with a high-resolution elevation map to account for the underlying topography of the landscape. Building on hedonic valuation theory, we statistically estimate the impact of wind turbine visibility on home values, informed by data from the majority of home sales in the United States since 1997. We find that on average, wind turbine visibility negatively affects home values in an economically and statistically significant way in close proximity (5 miles/8 km). However, the effect diminishes over time and in distance and is indistinguishable from zero for larger distances and toward the end of our sample.
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  • 66
    Publication Date: 2024-03-21
    Description: The construction sector makes a considerable contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions. Considering the ongoing urbanization trends and climate change urgency, the exploration of alter- native construction techniques should be a mandate. 3D-printing represents an emergent technol- ogy and more and more specimen are being built. We collect data of raw material use for houses that have already been built using 3D-printing. Assessing the construction related emissions, we find that, the four examples for which we could obtain the data, do have less emissions per square meter than conventionally built houses (10 international examples). We argue that 3D-printing represents an interesting alternative, but further research is necessary, not just in terms of environ- mental implications but also to better understand the social implications, e.g. health and safety or labor.
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2024-03-26
    Description: This paper considers the exponential output synchronization of complex networks with output coupling (CNOC) based on the intermittent event-triggered control (IE-TC) strategy. Unlike existing intermittent control strategies, the proposed IE-TC strategy is event-triggered instead of time-triggered during the control intervals. Moreover, the average control rate is adopted for intermittent control, which makes the results less conservative. A new Lyapunov function is proposed to simplify the proof, which does not require the traditional mathematical induction method for intermittent control. Based on the Lyapunov method and inequality technique, sufficient conditions for achieving exponential output synchronization of CNOC for undirected graph and digraph topologies are given, respectively. Moreover, the Zeno phenomenon can be excluded. Finally, an example with simulations is provided to verify the feasibility of the theoretical results.
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 2024-03-26
    Description: This paper analyzes the implications of investors’ short-term oriented asset holding and portfolio decisions (or short-termism), and its consequences on green investments. We adopt a dynamic portfolio model, which contrary to conventional static mean-variance models, allows us to study optimal portfolios for different decision horizons. Our baseline model contains two assets, one asset with fluctuating returns and another asset with a constant risk-free return. The asset with fluctuating returns can arise from fossil-fuel based sectors or from clean energy related sectors. We consider different drivers of short-termism: the discount rate, the nature of discounting (exponential vs. hyperbolic), and the decision horizon of investors itself. We study first the implications of these determinants of short-termism on the portfolio wealth dynamics of the baseline model. We find that portfolio wealth declines faster with a higher discount rate, with hyperbolic discounting, and with shorter decision horizon. We extend our model to include a portfolio of two assets with fluctuating returns. For both model variants, we explore the cases where innovation efforts are spent on fossil fuel or clean energy sources. Detailing dynamic portfolio decisions in such a way may allow us for better pathways to empirical tests and may provide guidance to some online financial decision making.
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  • 69