ALBERT

Description: The world should redouble its efforts on the SDGs, not abandon them. Here’s how to progress the United Nations’ agenda towards 2050.

Description: Steigende Temperaturen, veränderte Niederschlagsverteilungen sowie häufigere und intensivere Extremwetterereignisse stellen die Landwirtschaft weltweit vor neue Herausforderungen. Insbesondere im globalen Süden ist in den kommenden Jahrzehnten mit Ertragseinbußen zu rechnen. Klimaresiliente Sorten können einen wichtigen Beitrag bei der Anpassung an den Klimawandel leisten. Es wird geschätzt, dass in Zukunft je nach Emissionsszenario 15-39% der weltweiten Anbauflächen neue Pflanzensorten benötigen. Die Züchtung einer neuen Sorte ist jedoch ein langwieriger und kostspieliger Prozess, der im Schnitt 10-12 Jahre in Anspruch nimmt. Durch neue Technologien wie Genome Editierung könnte dieser Prozess deutlich beschleunigt werden, gleichzeitig bietet die genetische Vielfalt von Landrassen und verwandten Wildarten große Möglichkeiten für die Züchtung. Im globalen Süden leisten internationale Forschungseinrichtungen sowie Gen- und Saatgutbanken einen wichtigen Beitrag zur Bereitstellung klimaresilienter Sorten. Hohe Kosten, unsichere Landeigentumsrechte, fehlender Zugang zu Märkten und Krediten stehen jedoch einer größeren Nutzung verbesserten Saatgutes entgegen. Durch Informationskampagnen, praktischer Demonstration von verbessertem Saatgut sowie finanziellen Anreizen kann ein schneller Sortenwechsel gefördert werden.

Description: The Arctic sea ice (ASI) is expected to decrease with further global warming. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the temperature range that would lead to a completely ice-free Arctic. Here, we combine satellite data and a large suite of models from the latest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to develop an empirical, observation-based projection of the September ASI area for increasing global mean surface temperature (GMST) values. This projection harnesses two simple linear relationships that are statistically supported by both observations and model data. First, we show that the September ASI area is linearly proportional to the area inside a specific northern hemisphere January–September mean temperature contour Tc. Second, we use observational data to show how zonally averaged temperatures have followed a positive linear trend relative to the GMST, consistent with Arctic amplification. To ensure the reliability of these observations throughout the rest of the century, we validate this trend by employing the CMIP6 ensemble. Combining these two linear relationships, we show that the September ASI area decrease will accelerate with respect to the GMST increase. Our analysis of observations and CMIP6 model data suggests a complete loss of the September ASI (area below 10〈sup〉8〈/sup〉 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉) for global warming between 1.5 C and 2.2 C above pre-industrial GMST levels.

Description: The loss of Arctic sea ice (ASI) represents a major transformation in the Arctic region, impacting regional and global climate, ecosystems, and socio-economic structures. Observational and reanalysis data have consistently shown a notable shift in polar environmental conditions over recent decades, marked by a substantial reduction in the ASI area and a rise in the variability in its coverage and distribution. Utilizing data from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase, our study reveals a consistent pattern highlighting a fundamental shift in ASI dynamics preceding total loss. We observe increasing fluctuations in the September ASI area as the threshold for an ice-free Arctic is approached across various scenarios and models. This pattern is particularly concentrated in the Central Arctic (CA) sub-region. Spatial analyses reveal increasing variance along the CA's northern coastlines, accompanied by a substantial increase in open water coverage, underscoring the shift from stable to highly variable ice conditions in this region. Additionally, our findings suggest a potential link between increased ASI fluctuations and variability in surface wind speeds. These specific results underscore the urgency of multidisciplinary approaches in addressing the challenges posed by ASI variability, with implications for marine ecosystems, Indigenous communities, and navigational safety.

Description: Detection of critical slowing down (CSD) is the dominant avenue for anticipating critical transitions from noisy time-series data. Most commonly, changes in variance and lag-1 autocorrelation [AC(1)] are used as CSD indicators. However, these indicators will only produce reliable results if the noise driving the system is white and stationary. In the more realistic case of time-correlated red noise, increasing (decreasing) the correlation of the noise will lead to spurious (masked) alarms for both variance and AC(1). Here, we propose two new methods that can discriminate true CSD from possible changes in the driving noise characteristics. We focus on estimating changes in the linear restoring rate based on Langevin-type dynamics driven by either white or red noise. We assess the capacity of our new estimators to anticipate critical transitions and show that they perform significantly better than other existing methods both for continuous-time and discrete-time models. In addition to conceptual models, we apply our methods to climate model simulations of the termination of the African Humid Period. The estimations rule out spurious signals stemming from nonstationary noise characteristics and reveal a destabilization of the African climate system as the dynamical mechanism underlying this archetype of abrupt climate change in the past.

Description: Die Entscheidung für den Austausch oder Ersatz eines Heizsystems ist eine, die für mehr als ein Jahrzehnt getroffen wird. Oftmals berücksichtigen Verbraucherinnen und Verbraucher dabei vor allem die einmal anfallende Einbau-Investition. Die Kosten über den gesamten Lebenszyklus sind deutlich schwerer zu ermitteln und unsicher, daher werden sie häufig zu wenig in die finanzielle Überlegung mit einbezogen. In einer neuen Analyse haben Ariadne-Forschende berechnet, wie hoch unterm Strich die Kosten für verschiedene Heiztechniken in bestehenden Wohngebäuden über einen Zeitraum von 20 Jahren angesichts zukünftiger Energieträgerpreise sowie der zu erwartenden CO2-Preisentwicklung sind.

Description: We study networks of coupled oscillators whose local dynamics are governed by the fractional-order versions of the paradigmatic van der Pol and Rayleigh oscillators. We show that the networks exhibit diverse amplitude chimeras and oscillation death patterns. The occurrence of amplitude chimeras in a network of van der Pol oscillators is observed for the first time. A form of amplitude chimera, namely, “damped amplitude chimera” is observed and characterized, where the size of the incoherent region(s) increases continuously in the course of time, and the oscillations of drifting units are damped continuously until they are quenched to steady state. It is found that as the order of the fractional derivative decreases, the lifetime of classical amplitude chimeras increases, and there is a critical point at which there is a transition to damped amplitude chimeras. Overall, a decrease in the order of fractional derivatives reduces the propensity to synchronization and promotes oscillation death phenomena including solitary oscillation death and chimera death patterns that were unobserved in networks of integer-order oscillators. This effect of the fractional derivatives is verified by the stability analysis based on the properties of the master stability function of some collective dynamical states calculated from the block-diagonalized variational equations of the coupled systems. The present study generalizes the results of our recently studied network of fractional-order Stuart–Landau oscillators.

Description: Understanding the behavioral response dynamics to risks is important for informed policy-making at times of crises. Here we elucidate two response channels to Covid-19 risk and show that they weakened over time, prior to the availability of vaccines. We employ fixed-effects panel regression models to empirically assess the relationship between actual Covid-19 risk (daily case numbers), the perceived risk (attention paid to the pandemic via related Google search requests) and the resulting behavioral response (personal mobility choices) over two pandemic phases for 113 cities in eight countries, while accounting for government interventions. Prolonged exposure to Covid-19 reduces risk perception which in turn leads to a weakened behavioral response. Attention responses and mobility reductions across all three mobility types are weaker in the second phase, given the same levels of actual and perceived risk, respectively. Our results provide evidence that the risk response attenuates over time with implications for other crises evolving over long timescales.

Description: Open data, as an essential element in the sustainable development of the digital economy, is highly valued by many relevant sectors in the implementation process. However, most studies suppose that there are only data providers and users in the open data process and ignore the existence of data regulators. In order to establish long-term green supply relationships between multistakeholders, we hereby introduce data regulators and propose an evolutionary game model to observe the cooperation tendency of multistakeholders (data providers, users, and regulators). The newly proposed game model enables us to intensively study the trading behavior which can be realized as strategies and payoff functions of the data providers, users, and regulators. Besides, a replicator dynamic system is built to study evolutionary stable strategies of multistakeholders. In simulations, we investigate the evolution of the cooperation ratio as time progresses under different parameters, which is proved to be in agreement with our theoretical analysis. Furthermore, we explore the influence of the cost of data users to acquire data, the value of open data, the reward (penalty) from the regulators, and the data mining capability of data users to group strategies and uncover some regular patterns. Some meaningful results are also obtained through simulations, which can guide stakeholders to make better decisions in the future.

Description: The article evidences to what extent rights-based climate litigation is applied as a strategy to enhance the recognition and protection of climate-induced migrants. Adopting a deduc- tive approach and desk review, the study, illustrates how climate-induced migration has been addressed by International Human Rights Law, with some attention also paid to the growing application of the right to a safe climate and climate justice. The study highlights the duties of both States and private actors in tackling the emerging climate crisis under the human rights agenda. Relevant responsibilities are framed in particular within the scope of rights-based litiga- tion dealing with the topic. We present an analysis of litigation linked to climate-induced migration that was filed before distinct international, regional, and national jurisdictions and, in doing so, propose a chronology of cases—structured in three generations—of how population movements as a result of climate change have been discussed by judicial means. The first generation relates to cases that consider the issue from the perspective of protection—in both national, regional, and international jurisdictions. The second generation emerges within general climate litigation claims, involving commitments linked to the climate agenda. In addition to raising (forced) pop- ulation movements as one of the expected impacts of climate change, such cases frequently call upon a rights-based approach. The third generation encompasses rights-based cases cen- tred on climate-induced migrants per se. The strengths and limitations of rights-based litigation to respond to the topic are finally highlighted: we conclude that litigation remains a blunt but not unpromising tool to respond to climate-induced migration. Generic references to the risk of (forced) population movements largely prevail; nevertheless, strategic rights-based litigation can facilitate the visibility of climate-induced migrants to the international community, fostering the development of legal solutions in the longer term.