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  • Weitere Quellen  (1.256)
  • Publikationsdatenbank PIK  (1.256)
  • Bibliographie (Seismologie)
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  • 1
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    Selling CBAM: Diplomacy for the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (2024)
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    In:  Ariadne-Analyse
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-06-28
    Beschreibung: The European Union’s outreach to third countries during the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism was rigid and uncoordinated, new Ariadne analysis has found. Researchers investigated how the EU organized its diplomacy to counter trade concerns during the development of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. According to the Ariadne researchers, the fact that the EU’s diplomatic outreach was rather reactive may have helped to provide less of a target for opposition from trading partners and to increase acceptance of the mechanism as an expression of the EU’s claim to leadership in ambitious climate policy.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
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    Convolution of individual and group identity: self-reliance increases polarisation in basic opinion model (2024)
    In:  Humanities and Social Sciences Communications
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-06-21
    Beschreibung: Opinion formation within society follows complex dynamics. Towards its understanding, axiomatic theory can complement data analysis. To this end we propose an axiomatic model of opinion formation that aims to capture the interaction of individual conviction with social influence in a minimalist fashion. Despite only representing that (1) agents have an initial conviction with respect to a topic and are (2) influenced by their neighbours, the model shows emergence of opinion clusters from an initially unstructured state. Here, we show that increasing individual self-reliance makes agents more likely to align their socially influenced opinion with their inner conviction which concomitantly leads to increased polarisation. The opinion drift observed with increasing self-reliance may be a plausible analogue of polarisation trends in the real world. Modelling the basic traits of striving for individual versus group identity, we find a trade-off between individual fulfilment and societal cohesion. This finding from fundamental assumptions can serve as a building block to explain opinion polarisation.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
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    Low carbon hydrogen in the European Union: A coherent regulatory framework (2024)
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    In:  Ariadne-Analyse
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-06-21
    Beschreibung: Renewable hydrogen is necessary for the decarbonization of sectors that are difficult to electrify, such as industry and aviation, and as a storage medium for surplus electricity from renewable sources.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
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    Extending the Sustainable Development Goals to 2050 — a road map [comment] (2024)
    In:  Nature
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-06-20
    Beschreibung: The world should redouble its efforts on the SDGs, not abandon them. Here’s how to progress the United Nations’ agenda towards 2050.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 5
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    Arctic summer sea ice loss will accelerate in coming decades (2024)
    In:  Environmental Research Letters
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-06-20
    Beschreibung: The Arctic sea ice (ASI) is expected to decrease with further global warming. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the temperature range that would lead to a completely ice-free Arctic. Here, we combine satellite data and a large suite of models from the latest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to develop an empirical, observation-based projection of the September ASI area for increasing global mean surface temperature (GMST) values. This projection harnesses two simple linear relationships that are statistically supported by both observations and model data. First, we show that the September ASI area is linearly proportional to the area inside a specific northern hemisphere January–September mean temperature contour Tc. Second, we use observational data to show how zonally averaged temperatures have followed a positive linear trend relative to the GMST, consistent with Arctic amplification. To ensure the reliability of these observations throughout the rest of the century, we validate this trend by employing the CMIP6 ensemble. Combining these two linear relationships, we show that the September ASI area decrease will accelerate with respect to the GMST increase. Our analysis of observations and CMIP6 model data suggests a complete loss of the September ASI (area below 10〈sup〉8〈/sup〉 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉) for global warming between 1.5 C and 2.2 C above pre-industrial GMST levels.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 6
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    Increasing fluctuations in the Arctic summer sea ice cover are expected with future global warming (2024)
    In:  Environmental Research: Climate
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-06-20
    Beschreibung: The loss of Arctic sea ice (ASI) represents a major transformation in the Arctic region, impacting regional and global climate, ecosystems, and socio-economic structures. Observational and reanalysis data have consistently shown a notable shift in polar environmental conditions over recent decades, marked by a substantial reduction in the ASI area and a rise in the variability in its coverage and distribution. Utilizing data from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase, our study reveals a consistent pattern highlighting a fundamental shift in ASI dynamics preceding total loss. We observe increasing fluctuations in the September ASI area as the threshold for an ice-free Arctic is approached across various scenarios and models. This pattern is particularly concentrated in the Central Arctic (CA) sub-region. Spatial analyses reveal increasing variance along the CA's northern coastlines, accompanied by a substantial increase in open water coverage, underscoring the shift from stable to highly variable ice conditions in this region. Additionally, our findings suggest a potential link between increased ASI fluctuations and variability in surface wind speeds. These specific results underscore the urgency of multidisciplinary approaches in addressing the challenges posed by ASI variability, with implications for marine ecosystems, Indigenous communities, and navigational safety.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 7
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    Detection of Approaching Critical Transitions in Natural Systems Driven by Red Noise (2024)
    In:  Physical Review X
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-06-20
    Beschreibung: Detection of critical slowing down (CSD) is the dominant avenue for anticipating critical transitions from noisy time-series data. Most commonly, changes in variance and lag-1 autocorrelation [AC(1)] are used as CSD indicators. However, these indicators will only produce reliable results if the noise driving the system is white and stationary. In the more realistic case of time-correlated red noise, increasing (decreasing) the correlation of the noise will lead to spurious (masked) alarms for both variance and AC(1). Here, we propose two new methods that can discriminate true CSD from possible changes in the driving noise characteristics. We focus on estimating changes in the linear restoring rate based on Langevin-type dynamics driven by either white or red noise. We assess the capacity of our new estimators to anticipate critical transitions and show that they perform significantly better than other existing methods both for continuous-time and discrete-time models. In addition to conceptual models, we apply our methods to climate model simulations of the termination of the African Humid Period. The estimations rule out spurious signals stemming from nonstationary noise characteristics and reveal a destabilization of the African climate system as the dynamical mechanism underlying this archetype of abrupt climate change in the past.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 8
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    Effect of fractional derivatives on amplitude chimeras and symmetry-breaking death states in networks of limit-cycle oscillators (2023)
    In:  Chaos
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-06-19
    Beschreibung: We study networks of coupled oscillators whose local dynamics are governed by the fractional-order versions of the paradigmatic van der Pol and Rayleigh oscillators. We show that the networks exhibit diverse amplitude chimeras and oscillation death patterns. The occurrence of amplitude chimeras in a network of van der Pol oscillators is observed for the first time. A form of amplitude chimera, namely, “damped amplitude chimera” is observed and characterized, where the size of the incoherent region(s) increases continuously in the course of time, and the oscillations of drifting units are damped continuously until they are quenched to steady state. It is found that as the order of the fractional derivative decreases, the lifetime of classical amplitude chimeras increases, and there is a critical point at which there is a transition to damped amplitude chimeras. Overall, a decrease in the order of fractional derivatives reduces the propensity to synchronization and promotes oscillation death phenomena including solitary oscillation death and chimera death patterns that were unobserved in networks of integer-order oscillators. This effect of the fractional derivatives is verified by the stability analysis based on the properties of the master stability function of some collective dynamical states calculated from the block-diagonalized variational equations of the coupled systems. The present study generalizes the results of our recently studied network of fractional-order Stuart–Landau oscillators.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 9
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    Prolonged exposure weakens risk perception and behavioral mobility response: Empirical evidence from Covid-19 (2023)
    In:  Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-06-19
    Beschreibung: Understanding the behavioral response dynamics to risks is important for informed policy-making at times of crises. Here we elucidate two response channels to Covid-19 risk and show that they weakened over time, prior to the availability of vaccines. We employ fixed-effects panel regression models to empirically assess the relationship between actual Covid-19 risk (daily case numbers), the perceived risk (attention paid to the pandemic via related Google search requests) and the resulting behavioral response (personal mobility choices) over two pandemic phases for 113 cities in eight countries, while accounting for government interventions. Prolonged exposure to Covid-19 reduces risk perception which in turn leads to a weakened behavioral response. Attention responses and mobility reductions across all three mobility types are weaker in the second phase, given the same levels of actual and perceived risk, respectively. Our results provide evidence that the risk response attenuates over time with implications for other crises evolving over long timescales.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 10
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    Open Data in the Digital Economy: An Evolutionary Game Theory Perspective (2024)
    In:  IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-06-14
    Beschreibung: Open data, as an essential element in the sustainable development of the digital economy, is highly valued by many relevant sectors in the implementation process. However, most studies suppose that there are only data providers and users in the open data process and ignore the existence of data regulators. In order to establish long-term green supply relationships between multistakeholders, we hereby introduce data regulators and propose an evolutionary game model to observe the cooperation tendency of multistakeholders (data providers, users, and regulators). The newly proposed game model enables us to intensively study the trading behavior which can be realized as strategies and payoff functions of the data providers, users, and regulators. Besides, a replicator dynamic system is built to study evolutionary stable strategies of multistakeholders. In simulations, we investigate the evolution of the cooperation ratio as time progresses under different parameters, which is proved to be in agreement with our theoretical analysis. Furthermore, we explore the influence of the cost of data users to acquire data, the value of open data, the reward (penalty) from the regulators, and the data mining capability of data users to group strategies and uncover some regular patterns. Some meaningful results are also obtained through simulations, which can guide stakeholders to make better decisions in the future.
    Sprache: Englisch
    Materialart: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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