ALBERT

Description: The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 is a virus causing the COVID-19 pandemic around the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) raised it to the highest level of global alert. The English, Chinese, and Japanese language Twitter data related to this disease during the first period after the WHO started releasing the situation reports were collected and compared with the tweet trends. This study also used quantitative text analysis to extract and analyze the co-occurrence network of English tweets. The findings show that trends and public concerns in social media are related to the breaking news and global trends such as the confirmed cases, the reported death tolls, the quarantined cruise news, the informer, etc.

Description: We are very pleased to publish the Special Issue on NIED Frontier Research on Science and Technology for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience 2020. There are nine papers in this issue. The first two papers concern hazard and risk information systems: Sano et al. constructed a real-time risk information map for flood and landslide disasters, and Hirashima et al. created an alert system for snow removal from rooftops. These systems are already in use on the NIED website. The next three papers are case studies of recent storm disasters in Japan and the United States: Cui et al. analyzed the time variation in the distribution of damage reports in the headquarters for heavy-rainfall disaster control in Fukuoka, Shakti et al. studied flood disasters caused by Typhoon Hagibis (2019), and Iizuka and Sakai conducted a meteorological analysis of Hurricane Harvey (2017). Regarding volcanic disasters, Tanada and Nakamura reported the results of an electromagnetic survey of Mt. Nasudake. This special issue also includes three papers on large-scale model experimentation: Danjo and Ishizawa studied the rainfall infiltration process using NIED’s Large-Scale Rainfall Simulator, Kawamata and Nakazawa conducted experiments concerning liquefaction, and Nakazawa et al. reported the results of experiments on seismic retrofits for road embankments. The experiments used E-Defense, the world’s largest three-dimensional shaking table. We hope this issue will provide useful information for all readers studying natural disasters.

Description: Floods are a regularly occurring form of natural disaster in Thailand. They commonly occur during the monsoon season. Although the Chao Phraya River basin is strategically important because it accommodates several primary sectors that form the backbone of the Thai economy, it is vulnerable to flooding. The causes of flooding in this basin are both natural and human-induced. Climate and land-use changes are believed to be factors that elevated the severity of recent flood events. In 2011, Thailand suffered the worst floods in half a century; this is ranked as among the top five costliest natural disaster events in modern history. Thailand has developed a number of structural and non-structural measures to prevent devastating flood impacts. This paper reviews the flood management and adaptation measures within the Chao Phraya River basin, serving as a stepping stone towards sustainability.

Description: Business Continuity Management (BCM) is commonly known as one of the most effective programs to use in the face of crisis, incident, and disaster, specifically for organizations to continue or resume their operations. Over time, the concept has gained popularity and has developed into one of the strategies in a resilience plan. The purpose of this study is to explore the trend of BCM, the subject, and the relationship between BCM and associated study fields through a preliminary systematic literature review. This research used the articles from ScienceDirect database from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2018. This study analyzed the collected articles using their publication years, journal titles, countries, and relevant study fields. The result found that several papers have been published since 1999, which focus predominantly on the BCM standard. The rate of publication on BCM had escalated in 2015. There were 82 papers about BCM. The issues were categorized into ten main subjects. Among them, the most frequently mentioned are Information Technology (IT) security, followed by implementing BCM into diverse study disciplines, implementing new toolkits into BCM associated studies, BCM improvement, resilience, lessons learned, supply chain, and BCM advantages. The gap of the research lays a foundation for future studies in similar fields.

Description: Climate change affects both the temperature and precipitation, leading to changes in river runoff. The Bago River basin is one of the most important agricultural regions in the Ayeyarwady Delta of Myanmar, and this paper aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on it. Linear scaling was used as the bias-correction method for ten general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Future climate scenarios are predicted for three 27-year periods: the near future (2020–2046), middle future (2047–2073), and far future (2074–2100) with a baseline period of (1981–2005) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of the IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5). The Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System model is used to predict future discharge changes for the Bago River considering future average precipitation for all three future periods. Among the GCMs used to simulate meteorological data in the Ayeyarwady Delta zone, the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-Earth System is the most suitable. It predicts that average monthly precipitation will fluctuate and that average annual precipitation will increase. Both average monthly and annual temperatures are expected to increase at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The simulation shows that the Bago River discharge will increase for all three future periods under both scenarios.

Description: The need for electricity is rapidly increasing, especially in developing countries. There is vast hydropower potential existing globally that has not yet been explored. This could be the only solution to solve future global power shortage. Hydropower is a clean and renewable source of energy because it does not exploit the use of water. However, using the conventional approach to harness hydropower results in several challenges. It is difficult to identify suitable sites and assess site potential during the planning stage of hydropower projects. In this study, run-of-river hydropower potential for the Myitnge River Basin was estimated by intergrating a Geographic Information System (GIS) and Soil & Water Assessement Tool (SWAT) model. A GIS based tool was developed using Python to spot the potential locations of the hydropower plants. The hydrological model (SWAT) was designed in order to obtain the values of monthly discharge for all potential hydropwer sites. The flow duration curves at potential locations were developed and the design discharge for hydropower was identified. Forty-four run-of-river (ROR) type potential hydropower sites were identified by considering only the topographic factors. After simulation with SWAT model, twenty potential sites with a hydropower generation potential of 292 MW were identified. Currently, only one 790 MW Yeywa Hydropower Plant, which is the largest plant in Myanmar, exists in the Myitnge River Basin. The amount of estimated power generated from ROR may increase the existing power system of Myitnge Basin by 36%. This study will assist stakeholders in the energy sector to optimize the available resources to select appropiate sites for small hydropower plants with high power potential.

Description: A massive flood in Myanmar struck the Bago river in July, 2018. In this study, because of the limitation of real-time data availability, the satellite-based precipitation was used for clarifying the characteristics of the flood. The total precipitation during 10 days from July 22, when the flood first began at the western Bago city, was estimated approximately 753 mm and 527 mm at the Bago and Zaungts stations in the Bago river watershed. These values were corresponding to 355% and 294% of average of the 10-day total precipitation at the Bago (1967–2015) and Zaungts (1987–2014) stations. Furthermore, not only the 3-day and weekly peak precipitations but also the annual accumulative precipitations during July 22 and August 16 were estimated larger than the largest recorded precipitations at both stations. Although the Zaungts dam stored approximately 140 million m3 during this period, which was an amount equivalent to 40% of inflow volume during July 22 and 28, the resulting flood widely propagated in the Bago city. Based on the flood survey, the 2018 Bago river flood was classified into 4 areas; the right bank of the Bago river, the eastern town, the northern town, and the downstream from the Zaungts Weir and Bago city. These areas were marked as vulnerable areas in the Bago city. The Bago river watershed has experienced many floods in the past, and floods on the same scale as this flood are expected to occur in the future. Therefore, it is essential to understand the characteristics of the 2018 Bago river flood and develop near real-time monitoring of hydrometeorological situation to be prepared for the next flood disaster.

Description: In Yangon and the suburbs of Myanmar, timber-framed buildings are the popular choice of construction for residential purposes. Nearly 8% of the total population in Yangon live in the slums and slum-like areas where the dwellings are predominantly made of non-durable materials. Wood, jungle wood, and bamboo are used as the framework and corrugated galvanized iron sheets as walling and sheathing material. The seismic-resistance capacity of timber buildings in slum areas has never been approved based on experimental evidence. Therefore, this study aims to conduct a seismic fragility analysis for poorly built timber buildings by providing a suitable method through numerical and experimental approaches. Pull-over loading tests were conducted on selected buildings to assess their loading-displacement capacity. Further, numerical modeling was done using the Wallstat simulation tool, which is based on the discrete element method. The pushover curve was validated with the curve from the pull-over load test. Once the numerical model was confirmed, dynamic analysis was conducted for different peak ground acceleration (PGA) (g) values until the complete numerical collapse of the building. Three building configurations with three ranges of variable material properties were considered in this study. A primary damage state started at the low PGA value of 0.05 g, and it can be confirmed that the timber buildings that were studied, are vulnerable to earthquakes. The results based on qualitative analysis were accumulated to obtain the damage state matrix, which was then used to obtain the fragility curves.

Description: To ensure the long-term performance of bridges in Myanmar, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) initiated a capacity development project to enhance the quality control capabilities of engineers in the Myanmar government. Such expertise will be transferred to a group of “core trainers,” who will be responsible for sharing their acquired skills and knowledge with other engineers in Myanmar. The effective transfer of Japanese expertise is thus crucial for realizing the project’s goal of improving the quality of bridges and structures managed by the government of Myanmar. This research aims to explore the perspectives and expectations of the core trainers’ for training transfer after the project using the results of a survey questionnaire and to evaluate the effect of various factors on their expectations for transfer using partial least squares path modeling. It was found that the core trainers had positive expectations regarding the benefits of training transfer as well as generally positive perspectives on the factors affecting such transfer. The results of statistical modeling, however, failed to reveal any significant relationships between the modeled factors and the expectations for training transfer. This may be attributable to the sample size, which is limited by the scope of the capacity development project; a mixed method approach is therefore proposed as a more appropriate method in this context. Nonetheless, the results generally suggest that the work environment is fundamental in facilitating effective training transfer, and further research is necessary.

Description: Topography represented in the form of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) has profound applications in hydrological modeling. DEMs can be generated from several sources including satellite products, contours, survey data, and LiDAR, each with their own merits and demerits. Where high resolution, accuracy, and spatial extent are concerned, it is often found that a DEM from one source alone is not able to represent the topography of the target area with full accuracy. Upon comparing different DEMs, it was found that most were able to successfully represent mountainous regions but failed to represent flat deltaic regions. Therefore, in this research with Bago River basin, Myanmar as a study area, a new methodology to combine multiple sources of data with different data types is developed. The inputs are: (a) a 10 m DEM, developed using contour data, point elevation data, and UTM topographic maps; (b) a 5 m Digital Surface Model (DSM) acquired by the Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS); and (c) 168 sets of multiple-point elevation data representing a cross-sectional survey along the Bago River and the Bago-Sittaung canal. The output is a 10 m resolution Enhanced DEM (EnDEM) which is able to preserve the merits of all the input data, i.e., upper mountainous region, lower flat deltaic basin, and the river bathymetry. This paper provides a novel approach to DEM integration and burning of the river cross-section onto the DEM.

Description: This study aims to present the traffic conditions of one of the most congested areas in Yangon as well as the route choice behaviors of the road users in that area. It analyzes drivers’ route choice behaviors and traffic congestion according to road segments. Manual traffic counting and roadside interview methods were used in this survey. The data gathered were used in finding routes alternative to the U Htaung Bo road, which is extremely congested almost all the time. With regard to the report, it will be helpful to identify the scale of the problem that is caused by traffic congestion and to increase awareness of this issue, including amongst the government, policy makers, traffic engineers, and road users.

Description: After the collapse of Myaungmya Bridge in April 2018, the safety of infrastructure became an urgent task and attracted increased public interest in Republic of the Union of Myanmar. After the incident, monitoring systems were installed in several suspension bridges, of the same structure type as Myaungmya Bridge, recording unwanted bridge movements. The observations indicate that a large deformation occurred, rendering the current bridge condition different from its original design, though the safety of the current condition is unclear. Therefore, in this study, numerical models are simulated utilizing the data from detailed observations made by the monitoring system, to confirm the safety of the bridge. Twantay Bridge was chosen as the bridge analysis target. Linear time history analyses were performed on Twantay Bridge, in which the seismic performance was evaluated by comparing the stresses generated in the main members with the allowable stresses. Moreover, by comparing the analysis results obtained from two models – a design drawing model of the Twantay Bridge, and a model that reproduced the present condition of the bridge – the current bridge performance was confirmed. The information obtained from this analysis is useful in the field of maintenance and will allow Myanmar officials to effectively plan and take corrective action for the requisite maintenance of the damaged bridge.

Description: Colombia is tectonically active, and several large earthquakes have ruptured the Colombia-Ecuador subduction zone (CESZ) during the last century. Among them, the Colombia-Ecuador earthquake in 1906 (Mw 8.4) and the Tumaco earthquake in 1979 (Mw 8.3) generated destructive tsunamis. Therefore, it is important to characterize the seismic rupture processes and their relation with interplate coupling along the CESZ. We searched for repeating earthquakes by performing waveform similarity analysis. Cross correlation (CC) values were computed between earthquake pairs with hypocenter differences of less than 50 km that were located in the northern CESZ (1°–4°N) and that occurred from June 1993 to February 2018. We used broadband and short-period seismic waveform data from the Servicio Geológico Colombiano (SGC) seismic network. A CC threshold value of 0.90 was used to identify the waveform similarity and select repeating earthquakes. We found repeating earthquakes distributed near the trench and the coast. Our estimated repeating earthquakes near the trench suggest that the interplate coupling in this region is low. This is in clear constrast to the occurrence of a large slip in the 1906 Colombia-Ecuador earthquake along the trench in the southern part of the CESZ, and suggests that rupture modes are different between the northern and southern parts of CESZ near the trench.

Description: Many cities and regions have recently experienced economic and environmental losses due to natural disasters. Economic losses are particularly high in urban areas where population and many economic activities are highly concentrated. Urban communities’ abilities and capacities to cope with natural disasters are essential to understand the impacts of natural disasters. Urban communities’ coping capacity is found to be closely linked to social capital of such communities. This paper aims to assess the natural disaster coping capacity of urban residents with social capital approach. The case study is Bangkok, Thailand. Using principal component analysis (PCA), the analysis shows that social cohesion, empowerment, and trust plays a key role in social capital level of Bangkok residents. Mapping social capital index at the district level suggests that urbanization may be contributable to the level of social capital.

Description: This study estimates the fiscal impact of the anticipated Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake on both the national and local Japanese governments to identify their sovereign risk. First, we estimate the impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on local public finance using panel data regressions on 2008–2015 fiscal data. Second, based on the anticipated damage data – seismic intensity and area of inundation – of the Nankai earthquake and the coefficients derived from the first step, we estimate the amounts of fiscal revenue and expenditures that would be required by every local government for the anticipated Nankai earthquake. Finally, we estimate the fiscal expenditure of the national government in proportion to the estimated local ones. We find that first, the estimated fiscal requirements in the two years after the earthquake are about JPY 161 trillion, 5.9 times those of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Second, the financial disparity between affected and non-affected local governments is large because the Nankai earthquake would affect more municipalities than the Great East Japan Earthquake. The fiscal burden of non-affected municipalities would be relatively higher. These findings indicate that the Nankai earthquake will not only be a local disaster but also a national catastrophe.

Description: This study aims at clarifying households’ responses to the flood in Thailand. The result of this study helps fill the gap in literature about the factor affecting a household’s decision to evacuate in response to the flood, as such a decision varies with the type of natural disaster. The result of the study confirms that more vulnerable people are less likely to evacuate. However, they are more likely to evacuate, if at least one of their household members has reduced mobility. People in flood-prone areas exhibited moral hazards. Furthermore, people with relatively secured employment statuses are more likely to stay in the flood-prone area, to minimize their losses from the flood. If households with management-level employees received real-time and accurate updates about the flood, the decision to evacuate would be freely decided by such households, which can minimize their losses. Similarly, real-time and accurate data about potential damages and losses can reduce moral hazards. Thus, it is necessary for national and local governments to understand area-specific characteristics of people and linkages between societal vulnerability and economic resilience. The study’s implications highlight the importance of developing disaster management strategies in an integrated area-based approach.

Description: This study investigated households’ perceptions of risk communication during the 2011 flood in Thailand, which was the most devastating in Thailand since 1942 and affected 12.9 million people. The study aim was to analyze the determinants of people’s perceptions of early warning communication and its efficacy. It also examined key determinants in various aspects, including the accessibility and efficacy of warnings regarding the potential hazard from electrocution, household hygiene, and life and property issues. This study used the 2011 Flood Livelihood Survey of Thai households, conducted by the Thai National Statistical Office from July to December 2011. The results demonstrated that some household characteristics, head of household, and communication and transportation problems during the flood affected warnings regarding accessibility and the perception of warning efficacy during the 2011 flood in Thailand. The results also demonstrate the key factors in successful risk communication, i.e., flood experience and community interrelationship. It is also essential to provide comprehensive and useful information such as safety and health instructions, using the proper channels to disseminate information to the target audience.

Description: In every disaster, problems of information and communication distribution always occur. The communication channel is very dependent on various supporting facilities. Electricity, transmitter towers, broadcasting stations, to human resources. In two big disasters in Indonesia in 2018: the Lombok earthquake; and the earthquake, tsunami and liquefaction in Palu, there were issues of the information and communication channels. Local people do not know the conditions that occur in their area and the situation of their families. While outsiders, the government, and rescue teams did not get detailed information from the affected areas. In countries with high intensity of natural disasters, emergency broadcasting policies have been long practiced. The simplest device for emergency broadcasting is radio. This kind of media can immediately air with simple facilities. Regardless, the initiative of emergency radio has not yet adopted into regulation in Indonesia. Therefore, the emergency radio initiator limited to a handful of organization like in Lombok earthquake. Conversely in Palu disaster, there was a Ministerial Decree of Information and Communication Ministry Number 773/2018 (KM 773), regulation that simplify access to radio frequency. Using comparative method, this research examined these two disasters to analyze the differences of emergency radio practices. Only 1.5 months away and similar location features, the emergency radios initiation differ in several aspects related subjects that regulated in this KM. The result shows that this KM can broaden all aspects of emergency broadcasting radio. Although, the KM unable to shorten the time of emergency radio implementation. Regulation change only limited to frequency access. A broader regulation change is needed to support the practice of emergency radio.

Description: Housing in Thailand is expanding to the suburbs, especially for the lower classes, with more people living in collective housing. This study used a questionnaire survey to analyze the relationship between socioeconomic disparities in collective housing and disaster risk reduction (DRR) following the great flood of 2011. The results show that, although suburban lower-class collective housing was severely affected by the flood, DRR measures remain insufficient. The findings suggest that, in addition to supporting victims irrespective of residential status and aiding apartment managers in implementing DRR measures, lowering levels of inundation in the suburbs by “sharing” flood water with the more affluent city centers is an option that should be considered.

Description: This special issue summarizes the main results of the first two years of the Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS) project, which is supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). SATREPS has provided excellent opportunities for our joint research team from Thailand and Japan to work in close coordination on challenging multidisciplinary issues. The Area-BCM for the Enhancement of Resilience of Industrial Complexes in Thailand project was started in 2018. Its scope includes the impacts of urban flooding disasters in Bangkok and its surrounding areas where socio-economic functionalities have been concentrated, as well as chain repercussions of disaster impacts, spread through global supply chains, in important production and logistics facilities in Thailand. Our high-level project targets are based on the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) 2015–2030 as well as Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially #11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), #8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), and #13 (Climate Action). This issue contains interim research results from our project mainly led by members from Thailand with regional aspects of our project site. However, we plan to release another special issue by the end of our project that will include more generalized concepts and frameworks that can be applicable to other regions or countries, including Japan. As we take a multidisciplinary approach that includes science and technology, life and well-being science, and social science, our main objective in featuring this special issue is to make our interim research results known to other researchers and practitioners in related fields. We do this in order to get opinions and suggestions from different perspectives so that these may be reflected in the directions our research takes during the remainder of our project term. Finally, I am truly grateful for the authors’ insightful contributions and the referees’ acute professional suggestions, which together make this JDR special issue a valuable contribution to making our society more resilient to future disasters.

Description: The Fifth JDR Award ceremony was held in Kanda, Japan, at December 18, 2019 and a prize were given to Doctor Yuichiro Usuda, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED), Japan. We congratulate the winner and sincerely wish for future success.

Description: Flooding has always been one of the major hazards in Myanmar, accounting for 11% of all disasters. The Bago River Basin is a floodprone area in Myanmar, where, during the last decade, many severe floods occurred during the monsoon season, usually in July and August. Most of these floods are caused by storm rainfall. The 2011 and 2018 floods form part of the historical record of Bago. The main objective of this research paper is to develop a new hydrological model (WEB-DHM) for the Bago River Basin using observed station data to represent floods in the study area. The Water and Energy Budget-based Distributed Hydrological Model (WEB-DHM) was used for hydrological modeling as determined for the discharge of floods. The HydroSHEDS digital elevation model is used for the discharge estimation and analysis of the WEB-DHM. The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis JRA-55 data, from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), were used for the preparation of meteorological data for this model. The results of flood discharge from the hydrological modeling and the observed data of the past three years (2014, 2015 and 2016) are provided in this study.

Description: The population of Yangon has increased more than two times in the last 40 years and will reach 9.5 million by 2035. Owing to changes in car import policies, the number of cars in Yangon has increased from 3.6 million to 6.3 million in 5 years. This causes severe traffic congestion, resulting in social, economic, and environmental impacts. Rail transportation is one solution to this problem, but regular maintenance of railway tracks is necessary. In this study, onboard sensor measurement and satellite image analysis are used to monitor rail track conditions for the early detection of damage. The accelerometer in a smartphone is placed against the car body to measure the vertical and lateral acceleration. The smartphone vibrates as the cabin vibrates when the train passes irregular rail track sections. Phased-array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar images are analyzed using the interferometric technique to detect rail track irregularities. Thus, the rail track conditions can be estimated effectively.

Description: The current urbanization and motorization have caused a gradual negative impact on the existing transport infrastructure in Yangon City. Currently, the road network throughout Yangon operates at or above its desired capacity during the peak periods. At present, there are over 62,886 registered taxis operating in Yangon City. These taxis provide two different services to passengers: non-metered taxi (traditionally hailed on the street) service and metered taxi (on demand) service. Private cars and taxis constitute 70% of the modes of transport in Yangon City; this may lead to traffic congestion. However, there is lack of relevant data and taxi trip pattern information on how taxi service is related to traffic congestion. Therefore, studies on taxi surveying using Global Positioning Systems (GPS) need to be conducted, and investigations on the effect of taxi services on traffic congestion from these GPS data need to be performed. This study explores the comparison between hourly and daily trips’ frequencies as well as spatial and temporal variations of taxi trips between the two services. Field survey data collected through the GPS and Geographic Information System (GIS) were used to estimate the different taxi travel times that can be applied in predicting the occupied and vacant times in the study area. The specific objective of this research is to examine vacant taxi movement and stationary time (parking time and congestion time) of the two services to quantify the impact of taxi travel time on traffic congestion in Yangon. Moreover, by knowing how the two services vary in terms of operation, the main solution for reducing the congestion in Yangon City can be established. Further, the taxi stationary duration information is useful for knowing the taxi trip hotspot points in each township in Yangon. This may lead to support in defining proposed taxi stands in Yangon City.

Description: Myanmar is a thriving country in Southeast Asia and is facing future earthquake risks caused by the Sagaing Fault. Under these circumstances, Yangon must implement earthquake risk reduction measures in future development. Applying the building collapse risk evaluation method proposed by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, and analyzing current and future urban conditions of Yangon City based on available datasets, this study aimed to (1) evaluate present urban vulnerability focusing on building collapse risk, (2) clarify its future expansion tendency based on residential area development conditions from 2004 to 2018, and (3) estimate future building collapse risk in terms of future urban expansion limitation with urban function and building vulnerability in order to obtain useful information on earthquake risk reduction for future development in Yangon. Mainly, this research clarified as follows: (1) The inventory provided by YCDC (Yangon City Development Committee) showed that wooden buildings and RC accounted for 93.8% of all buildings in Yangon. (2) In order to understand the present urban vulnerability of Yangon based on the Tokyo Metropolitan Government’s method, 567 objective wards were categorized into five ranks according to the building collapse risk value. It indicated that building collapse risk in the Dawpon and Tharkayta Townships, located on the west side of Pazundaung Creek, were the highest. Some newly developed outskirts areas, such as Hlaingtharyar or Dala, also appeared as vulnerable with Ranks 4 and 5. (3) Yangon’s urban development conditions from 2004 to 2018 were visually clarified. Then, the relationships between the number of buildings, residential district area, and population according to townships were analyzed to estimate future development. (4) Finally, two types of urban development scenarios were set: Scenario A based on urban expansion limitation and urban function, and Scenario B based on building vulnerability. Then, the future building collapse risk trend from 2014 until 2040 was estimated. It was found that the Sub-center System would deter future urban sprawl in the future more than the Super CBD Single-core System, and the number of damaged buildings can be reduced by 43.5% at most in Dagon Seikkan.

Description: Yangon is one of the most populated and socio-economically important cities in Myanmar. Unfortunately, it is located in a moderately active-seismic area, and significant damage and loss will be incurred if an earthquake occurs there in the future. The seismogenic Sagaing Fault passes 40 km to the E of Yangon, which has experienced several destructive earthquakes in the past. The urban area studied here, Kyauktada, Pazundaung, and Botahtaung townships, are located mostly on a soft alluvial plain, which is mainly composed of sand, silt, and clay, which are sediments prone to amplify seismic waves. The Yangon Bosai Operation Support System (BOSS), designed to establish a proper disaster management system based on the potential damage that a future earthquake might cause, is under development. BOSS has two components damage prediction and damage response – which are based on predicted damage and current response capability and practices in Myanmar. For damage prediction, major inputs include information on the underlying soils, building construction and associated fragility functions, based on different building types. Microtremor survey is a useful tool for reviewing underlying soil layer information, as this can significantly affect vulnerability assessments and the identification of potential damages. Microtremor surveys and analyses were therefore conducted at 88 sites throughout the studied urban areas to acquire key ground information for BOSS. Our analyses showed that the fundamental frequency of horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (H/V ratio) of microtremors generally ranged 0.6–2.4 Hz, while the peak amplitude was between 1.3 and 4.0. Soil thickness ranged 60–210 m, and the average shear wave velocity over the ground’s upper 30 m, Vs30, was in the range 180–560 ms-1. All outcomes from this research will become key input parameters for BOSS development in Yangon.

Description: This paper introduces an integrated model that combines the Rainfall Runoff Inundation (RRI) and spatially distributed flood damage estimation models. There are three steps for fulfilling this purpose. The first step is the accomplishment of RRI model for the floodplain region. The second step is a questionnaire survey to analyze the economic damage to affected population and properties caused by the past flooding events; this step aims to estimate the different levels of agricultural damage cost. Finally, the economic flood damage estimation model was developed for the agricultural areas by using the stage-damage function models which were established by the multiple regression analysis of questionnaire survey data. The model results were expressed through spatially distributed flood damage maps for extreme flood events, such as those in 2014, 2015, and 2018. The results were validated by collecting damage cost data from the Department of Agricultural Lands Management and Statistics (DALMS). The final findings included comparative scenarios for reducing damage cost in the most effective and realistic way. The output product was the agricultural damage estimation model. For further research, the model was recommended for application in other study areas with different flood scales.

Description: Several types of eruptions have occurred at Sakurajima volcano in the past 100 years. The eruption in 1914 was of a Plinian type followed by an effusion of lava. The progression of seismicity of volcanic earthquakes prior to the eruption is reexamined and seismic energy is estimated to be an order of 1014 J. Lava also effused from the Showa crater in 1946. Since 1955, eruptions frequently have occurred at the Minamidake or Showa craters at the summit area. Vulcanian eruptions are a well-known type of summit eruption of Sakurajima, however Strombolian type eruptions and continuous ash emissions have also occurred at the Minamidake crater. The occurrence rate of pyroclastic flows significantly increased during the eruptivity of Showa crater, with the occurrence of lava fountains. Tilt and strain observations are reliable tools to forecast the eruptions, and their combination with the seismicity of volcanic earthquakes is applicable to forecasting the occurrence of pyroclastic flows. An empirical event branch logic based on magma intrusion rate is proposed to forecast the scale and type of eruption. Forecasting the scale of an eruption and real-time estimations of the discharge rate of volcanic ash allows us to assess ash fall deposition around the volcano. Volcanic ash estimation is confirmed by an integrated monitoring system of X Band Multi-Parameter radars, lidar and the Global Navigation Satellite System to detect volcanic ash particles with different wave lengths. Evaluation of the imminence of eruptions and forecasting of their scale are used for the improvement of planning and drilling of volcanic disaster measures.

Description: The research program titled “Earthquake and Volcano Hazards Observation and Research Program” was started in fiscal year (FY) 2014 as a new five-year project authorized and funded by the Council for Science and Technology of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. It included a new format of collaborative research called, “Core-to-Core Collaborative Research between Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo and Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University.” In this format, two types of research, “Participation Type Research” and “Subject Proposal Type Research” were conducted from FY2015. A preliminary study was performed in FY2015 for “Integrated Research” of “Participation Type Research,” which developed a framework for seismic risk evaluation at prefectural offices of Osaka and Kochi for an earthquake occurring along the Nankai Trough, considering the epistemic uncertainty. The secondary study was performed from FY2016 through to FY2018, wherein the methodology for the seismic risk evaluation was improved on three aspects: i.e., revision in ground motion prediction models considering the saturation effect, revision in loss models in terms of the fatalities as well as the direct losses of buildings, and extension of target sites to the whole of Osaka and Kochi prefectures. The results suggest that the epistemic uncertainty in the ground motion prediction models is most sensitive to the overall uncertainty of seismic risk. Along with “Integrated Research,” a total of 14 “Research on Specific Topics” related to time-dependent risk analysis, economical risk evaluation, source characterization, structural damage estimation models, ground motion estimation models, soil amplification models, and disaster prevention planning considering the uncertainty of risk assessment, were studied during this period in order to improve the risk assessment studies for “Integrated Research.” With respect to “Subject Proposal Type Research,” a total of 27 individual research themes focused on research to understand hazards/risks by earthquakes and volcanic eruptions and to mitigate disasters by them.

Description: The Earthquake and Volcano Hazards Observation and Research Program (2014–2018) carried out comprehensive research to mitigate disasters related to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The program selected multidisciplinary research in which earth scientists who study the processes of earthquake generation and volcanic eruptions, historians, archaeologists, human and social scientists, and engineers were all involved. The program aimed to collect pre-instrumental and pre-historical earthquake and volcanic data to understand earthquake and volcano disasters, to find risk evaluation techniques, and to evaluate disaster response and preparedness. Active collaborations between researchers from different science fields inspired new ideas and have driven various research in the program. New findings from the program have also created international collaborations and recognitions. Most of the results and new findings in the program have already been published in various internationally recognized journals and have greatly influenced scientific communities. We believe that it is important to compile our findings from the last five years of the program and to publish the essence of our findings and published papers in this special issue. We hope that this special issue will be of value to researchers who are interested in multidisciplinary studies of mitigation of disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and related phenomena.

Description: This special issue summarizes the main results of the latter half of a five-year project called SATREPS (Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development) supported by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST). The project title is “Development of a Comprehensive Disaster Resilience System and Collaboration Platform in Myanmar” and it is the first SATREPS project adopted in Myanmar. Yangon Technological University (YTU) is a major counterpart organization and both national and local governmental organizations are working together as strategic partners. In the first half of the project, a database was constructed, composed of important data for assessing urban safety and disaster risk, such as the ground properties, and distribution of buildings, people, and traffic. Using the database, city development model and evaluation models for flood and earthquake risks were developed. In the latter half of the project, combining these two evaluation models, a system was developed for discussing future damage differences due to different urban plans and countermeasures. Furthermore, regarding flood, near-real-time flood inundation simulation system was developed. Related to earthquake disaster, a support system was developed for implementation of efficient countermeasures for both pre- and post-disaster. For infrastructure maintenance, performance monitoring and maintenance methods were proposed. Finally, in order to continue research activities and promote a continuous utilization of project results, a consortium scheme in which industry, government, and academia can work together has been created. We hope that our SATREPS project activities can contribute to proper urban development and improvement of disaster management issues not only in Myanmar but also in other Asian countries.

Description: The objective of the General Research Group for the Nankai Trough Great Earthquake is to obtain a cross-sectional view of research on the Nankai Trough Great Earthquake, conducted by the various working groups of the Earthquake and Volcano Hazards Observation and Research Program, and to thereby promote the Program’s research in a comprehensive manner. In this paper, we report on workshops held during a five-year period (2014–2018), and summarize the findings of the five-year plan following the Research Group’s scheme. We also discuss issues that surfaced during these activities.

Description: In this research area, methodologies for prior predictions of potential hazards and real-time estimations of progressing hazards caused by earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are proved for disaster mitigation. The studies are based on the latest understanding of earthquake processes, volcanic activities, and the crustal structure. The studies have been conducted through the co-operation of the research fields of disaster prevention engineering and social science, in conjunction with the practical services of on-site works, to effectively provide the people with advance and immediately prior predictions. Predicting hazard potentials with high accuracy is important to the planning of disaster countermeasures. The hazards include ground motions, tsunamis, and land slides due to earthquakes as well as flows of volcanic ash and lava from volcanic activities. Real-time estimation of hazards and simultaneous transmission of the estimated results are also help in the mitigation of secondary hazards that followed the main disaster. Typical examples of the results are presented in this review paper.

Description: We collected volcanic ash immediately following the eruption of Mt. Asama on August 7, 2019, observed the characteristics of ash particles, and analyzed the water-soluble components. The volcanic ash consisted mostly of altered fragments, and no clear evidence of essential materials was found. The volcanic ash contained large amounts of water-soluble components, Cl and SO4 at concentrations of 8,710 mg/kg and 49,100 mg/kg, respectively. These results indicate that this eruption was caused by the phreatic explosion and that part of the volcanic edifice of Mt. Asama was fractured and emitted.

Description: The 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake (M9.0) significantly affected inland areas of Japan. The crust and mantle response to the magathrust earthquake induced changes in the mechanical conditions of the seismogenic zone. Here we present important progress in the research into the seismogenesis of inland earthquakes. Stress, strain, strength, and structures are key parameters affecting the occurrence of earthquakes. In particular, both the spatial and temporal changes in these parameters around the focal areas of the large inland earthquakes have been detected and modeled. These results have provided spatial potential evaluation in terms of future inland earthquake occurrence. However, we clearly recognize that, in order to understand and predict the inland earthquake generation process, it will inevitably be necessary to unify the research on various spatial and temporal scales, from problems related to long-term stress loading from plate-relative motion to instant fault response.

Description: Communities need seismic vulnerability indices to identify which buildings are most susceptible to severe damage during earthquakes. To be of greatest value, these indices should be easy to use and should be vetted against data from previous earthquakes. To date, more than 800 reinforced concrete buildings have been surveyed after earthquakes for the purpose of evaluating a seismic vulnerability index proposed by Hassan and Sozen in 1997. This number includes 130 buildings surveyed after the 6 February 2016 earthquake in Taiwan. The data collected during these surveys consist of descriptions and photographs of damage, structural sketches, and measurements. Analyses of the data indicate that probability of severe damage and failure increases with decreasing column index and wall index (normalized measures of column and wall areas). They also suggest that the exact form of the threshold used to distinguish more vulnerable structures from less vulnerable structures is of little consequence in terms of the probable cost and benefits of the strengthening program this threshold may inform.

Description: During the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster, the medical team’s responses in the Iwate Prefecture Emergency Operation Center (EOC) experienced many difficulties, especially in the first nine days after disaster occurrence. In this paper we proposed to objectively reveal problems of response activities at the viewpoint of information processing by the After Action Review (AAR), focusing on the activity logs in the time series (chronologies). By using the Emergency Support Function (ESF) as a framework of our analysis, we clarified the gap between the task that should be performed and actual conditions in the operation of the Japan Disaster Medical Assistance Team (DMAT) from the hyperacute phase to the subacute phase of medical responses.

Description: Flood loss models are essential tools for assessing flood risk. Flood damage assessment provides decision makers with critical information to manage flood hazards. This paper presents a multivariable flood damage assessment based on data from residential building and content damage from the Bago flood event of July 2018. This study aims to identify the influences on building and content losses. We developed a regression-based flood loss estimation model, which incorporates factors such as water depth, flood duration, building material, building age, building condition, number of stories, and floor level. Regression approaches, such as stepwise and best subset regression, were used to create the flood damage model. The selection was based on Akaike’s information criterion (AIC). We found that water depth, flood duration, and building material were the most significant factors determining flood damage in the residential sector.

Description: I would like to express my sincere appreciation for the honor of receiving this prestigious award. The award has been presented to me for the “Special Issue on NIED Frontier Researches on Science and Technology for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience 2017” of JDR Vol.12 No.5, for which I was the guest editor. I heard that this special issue has been the most downloaded over the past three years. NIED, to which I belong, is an institute that deals with natural disasters comprehensively. Since 2016, we have been working to become a “core organization for innovation in disaster resilience science and technology” as a new seven-year plan. Japan is a country prone to disasters, with many large-scale natural disasters occurring every year. Recent examples would be the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake, 2017 Nasu Avalanche, Northern-Kyushu Heavy Rain, 2018 Eruption of Mt. Kusatsu-Shirane, Western-Japan Heavy Rain, Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake, and 2019 Typhoon #19. We should collect “intelligence” related to natural disasters in multiple fields to reduce our disaster risk and improve our resilience. The Special Issue is a compilation of research results from individual fields. I am elated that the first special issue of NIED has gained such attention. NIED will continue to conduct research across multiple fields. We hope that NIED’s activities will lead to collaboration with many people and that the integration of intelligence will improve disaster resilience in Japan and all over the world.

Description: Unusual phenomena sometimes precede a large earthquake and are considered by some as a telltale sign of that earthquake. Judging whether the phenomenon was indeed related to the earthquake is difficult for individual cases. However, the accumulation of data over time allows for statistical evaluation to determine whether there is a correlation between the occurrence of a certain type of phenomena prior to an earthquake. The focus of this study is to review such statistical evaluation. The aspects considered in this study include seismicity, crustal deformation, slow slip, crustal fluids, crustal properties, electromagnetic phenomena, and animal behaviors. The lead times range from minutes to a few decades. The magnitude of the earthquake-preceding tendency can be universally measured by the probability gain G, which is the enhancement ratio of earthquake probability suggested by the occurrence of the phenomenon. A preceding tendency is considered to exist if G is 〉 1 with reasonable statistical significance. Short-term foreshock activity, that is, temporarily heightened seismicity, produces by far the highest G 〉 100, sometimes exceeding 10000. While this strongly contributes to empirical forecasting, a considerable part of the predictive power of foreshocks is likely to derive from the mere aftershock triggering mechanism. This enhances the probability of small and large earthquakes by the same factor. It is fundamentally different from traditional expectations that foreshock activity signifies the underlying nucleation process of the forthcoming (large) earthquake. Earthquake-preceding tendency has also been proven significant for a number of other phenomena not ascribable to the aftershock-triggering effect. Some phenomena may be indicators of physical conditions favorable for large earthquakes, while some (e.g., slow slip) may represent triggering effects other than aftershock triggering. Phenomena not ascribable to aftershock triggering have a modest G of 〈 20 so far. However, these phenomena, including higher-order features of foreshocks, can be combined with the high G from aftershock-triggering effect, sometimes yielding a fairly scaring level of forecast. For example, say ∼10% chance of an M7 earthquake in a week in a few hundred km radius.

Description: Understanding the occurrence mechanism of subduction zone earthquakes scientifically is intrinsically important for not only forecast of future subduction earthquakes but also disaster mitigation for strong ground motion and tsunami accompanied by large earthquakes. The Program Promotion Panel for Subduction-zone earthquakes mainly focused on interplate megathrust earthquakes in the subduction zones and the research activity included collection and classification of historical data on earthquake phenomena, clarifying the current earthquake phenomena and occurrence environment of earthquake sources, modelling earthquake phenomena, forecast of further earthquake activity based on monitoring crustal activity and precursory phenomena, and development of observation and analysis technique. Moreover, we studied the occurrence mechanism of intraslab earthquakes within the subducting oceanic plate. Five-year observational research program actually produced enormous results for deep understanding of subduction zone earthquakes phenomena, especially in terms of slow earthquakes, infrequent huge earthquakes, and intraslab earthquakes. This paper mainly introduces results from researches on these phenomena in subduction zones.

Description: The Earthquake and Volcano Hazards Observation and Research Program was from Japanese fiscal year 2014 to 2018. This national program succeeded the Research Program for Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Prediction (2009–2013). However, mainly because of the disaster caused by the 2011 earthquake off the Pacific coast of Tohoku, known as the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, the basic policy of the program changed drastically. It changed from research for predicting earthquakes and volcanic eruptions to comprehensive research for mitigating disasters on the basis of scientific results related to the mechanisms of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions and their forecasts. The program was planned to be multidisciplinary in nature. In addition to Earth scientists working to get a scientific understanding of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, historians, archaeologists, human and social scientists, and engineers took part in the program aimed at collecting pre-instrumental earthquake and volcanic data, understanding earthquake and volcano disasters, risk evaluation, and research into disaster response and preparedness. In this article, we review the basic concept of the 2014–2018 program and its main achievements. In the end, we summarize the problems left for future studies.

Description: In this study, we first discuss the current status and issues of disaster management education in the context of special support education in Japan, in view of the casualties of those with disabilities during major past earthquakes in Japan. We highlight that there are very few examples of practical implementation of, instructional material for, or previous studies on disaster management education for disabled children, or an established systematic instructional method. As a result, disaster management education tailored to the specific type of disability has been implemented on a school-to-school basis among Special Support Schools for children with disabilities. In many cases, teacher-led evacuation drills have been considered disaster management education. This is an indication that the disaster management education currently practiced in Special Support Schools is inadequate to achieve the goal of “fostering the attitude of acting on one’s initiative” as set forth by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). In view of the situation in Japan, where casualties due to natural disasters continue to occur frequently since the Great East Japan Earthquake, it is urgent that we promote practical disaster management education to foster the Zest for Life among disabled children. This paper is a case study of disaster management education that targets those with intellectual disabilities, which is the largest reported disability type among children enrolled in Special Support Schools in Japan. We applied the ADDIE (Analyze, Design, Develop, Implement, Evaluate) process in instructional design to develop an earthquake disaster management program designed to heighten the capacity of disabled children to foresee and circumvent danger to themselves, so as to protect their lives from large earthquakes which occur frequently in Japan. Specifically, the objective is to apply the earthquake disaster management education program, developed by the authors in a previous study, to children with intellectual disabilities. To this end, we implemented the program at the target school and verified its educational effect while taking into consideration the degree or condition of disability and the learning characteristics of the intellectually disabled and developed a valid program for intellectually disabled children. The program allows the teachers of Special Support Schools to practice disaster management education in the context of daily classroom study with students without the need to dispatch a disaster management expert to the school each time a program is implemented. Additionally, the program can be customized by the onsite teacher for individual schools, which can lead to a systematic program in disaster management education. In addition, we propose a framework to establish a network of stakeholders, including disaster management experts or organizations and educational institutions to effectively and strategically promote disaster management education. This framework makes it possible to implement the present program the most impactful way, and to maximize the benefits to the schools in Tochigi prefecture.

Description: It is our great pleasure to present the fifth JDR Award to Dr. Yuichiro Usuda. Dr. Usuda has made outstanding contributions to the Journal of Disaster Research (JDR) as the guest editor and the author of the JDR’s “Special Issue on NIED Frontier Researches on Science and Technology for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience 2017” in Vol.12 No.5, which has been the most downloaded special issue for the past three years. Dr. Usuda is a leading scientist in frontier research for natural disaster risk management and resilience in National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). He is working with researchers of many different disciplines as well as stake-holders in practical devastating disaster management situations. Thus, in his studies, he has been integrating many different disciplines to generate a new intellectual paradigm for managing multi-hazard disasters, such as earthquake disasters combined with meteorological disasters caused by rain, drought, snow, extreme heat or cold, ice, or wind. This is quite important in Japan and other disaster-prone countries, considering today’s global climate change. The special issue is the fruit of his research efforts. On behalf of the JDR editorial board, I wish to thank Dr. Yuichiro Usuda for his efforts and to congratulate him as the winner of the fifth JDR Award.

Description: According to the World Risk Report in 2018, Bangladesh has been identified as the most vulnerable country in the world. Among the 64 districts of this country, 19 districts are known as coastal districts 36.8 million people live in high-risk areas. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the reasons and factors why many residents do not comply with evacuation orders to cyclone shelters in an emergency period. Based on survey data collected from the survivors this paper finds that prior to the landfall of cyclone Komen in 2015 the majority of the respondents in Kutubdia Upazila had received cyclone warning either from Cyclone Preparedness Program volunteers or the radio, but only 61% of respondents in this village responded to the warning by seeking protection in the nearby shelter. The major identified reasons for 39% of respondent’s non-compliance with evacuation orders are the long distance of a cyclone shelter from home, an absence of the head of the family, gender-related concerns, not enough space in the shelter, the poor road network and no space for livestock in the shelter. It is also found that people did not start evacuation until observing the symptom of risk. To improve cyclone preparedness and response to evacuation orders from residents, an educational campaign by Government and Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) is needed in coastal zones to improve the use of public cyclone shelters. Finally, to reduce risk Government should take the initiative for infrastructural development in the coastal areas of Bangladesh.

Description: The role of the municipality in disaster management is a well-researched topic, but there is an ongoing debate concerning municipal capability in handling disasters. Many researchers have argued that governmental capability is a crucial factor in ensuring effective disaster management. Thus, several studies have measured or analyzed disaster-management capabilities at the local level. However, the relationships between the related indicators have not yet been ascertained. This study addressed this research gap by examining, with a special focus on non-structural aspects, how each indicator is related to governmental capability, as well as by examining other external indicators. We also made recommendations for developing, based on municipal characteristics, the capabilities of local governments. To do this, we employed structural equation modeling (SEM) to analyze data obtained from surveys conducted in 106 municipalities in Indonesia. Our findings indicated the existence of complicated relationships between the factors that improve local governmental capabilities and the external factors that influence capabilities. We found that the “budget allocation” factor played a fundamental role in disaster management. This article thus recommends increasing “budget allocation” as a primary way to strengthen local governmental capabilities in this area.

Description: Tsunami hazards can be considered as multiregional in their impacts, as transoceanic waves can propagate beyond local areas, as evidenced in recent tsunami events, e.g., the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Great East Japan tsunamis. However, in a single event, the characteristics of a tsunami (wave amplitude and arrival time) can differ from location to location, due to a myriad of reasons including distance from the source, bathymetry of the seafloor, and local effects. Tsunami countermeasures cannot be similarly applied globally. It is prudent to investigate tsunami hazard characteristics at a regional scale in order to evaluate suitable tsunami countermeasures. On this basis, approximately 300 major historical tsunamis have been reproduced in this study based on seismic records over the last 400 years. In this study, numerical analysis was performed to reproduce tsunami waveforms at each global tidal station, and numerical results were verified by comparing them with the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami record data. Non-structural tsunami countermeasures were proposed and selected for each region based on two main criteria – wave amplitudes and arrival times. Evaluation of selected countermeasures indicate that planning for evacuation processes (such as evacuation route mapping, signage and evacuation drills) are important in all situations. For local large tsunamis, evacuation drills are essential to ensure a community is well prepared for self-evacuation due to the short amount of time available for evacuation. Early warning systems were most effective where tsunamis are of large and distant origins. On the other hand, it would be more appropriate to invest in public alert systems for tsunamis of smaller magnitudes. Using these selection criteria, combinations of countermeasures were proposed for each region to focus their attention on, based on the simulated results of the historical tsunami events. The end-goal of this study is to inform decision-making processes and regional planning of tsunami disaster management.

Description: The relationship between the Central and local governments during an emergency has been primarily discussed at the Diet, in connection with the Constitution’s amendment, including the emergency provisions. However, opinions from the various fields are divided and discussions are typically based on whether an emergency state should be tackled principally by the Central Government or municipalities. The increasing risk of a super wide-area disaster (huge disaster) that can be expressed as national emergency state, such as the Great Nankai Trough Earthquake and large-scale flood, makes it imperative for advancing the previously mentioned discussions. It should be examined whether a state of emergency state could be managed appropriately within the administrative framework of the municipalities based on the Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act. In addition, necessary measures should be adopted within the purview of the existing laws apart from the discussions on the amendment of the Constitution. In this case, detailed discussions are needed on, for example, what kind of special rules should be established regarding the relationship between the Central and local governments. In this paper, the Great Nankai Trough Earthquake, large-scale flood in metropolitan areas, nuclear disaster, and complex disaster along with natural disaster are considered; the plans created by the Central Government in terms of the disaster prevention measures for such disasters are examined; and the items requiring special rules on the relationship between the Central and local governments are extracted from the disaster emergency measures. Furthermore, the per item application procedure of these special rules is also determined.

Description: This paper aims to identify the root causes that exacerbated the economic damage from the 2011 Chao Phraya river flood disaster in central Thailand industrial complex area. Finding root causes is crucial for learning from disasters; however, there has not been much investigation of the economic damage root causes with regard to the 2011 Chao Phraya river flood disaster. This paper seeks to investigate the root causes of the economic damage by organizing the existing analytical frameworks, tools and approaches to clarify why industrial parks and estates experienced such substantial economic devastation that resonated worldwide. The study’s research design includes a social background survey, in-depth interview surveys and an investigation of the disaster’s root causes. Through the research, inadequate urban and land use planning facilitated by a decentralization policy, foreign companies settlement in the country, which involved urbanization and relocation without proper risk assessment, information, and knowledge, and supplier’s responsibility based on the supply chain’s structure, are detected as root causes for the high economic damage in the industrial complex area. This study also provides key lessons essential to building regional resilience in industrial complex areas: 1) considering the potential risks of regional planning, which include both socio-economic and climate changes; 2) clarifying the roles of companies, regions, and nations in sharing risk information with related stakeholders before, during, and after a disaster; and 3) building horizontal and vertical collaborations among all related stakeholders.

Description: The Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami has reawakened people to the reality of large-scale earthquakes that recur in cycles of several hundred to a thousand years. The historical resources and archeology research group, which was established in 2014 within the Coordinating Committee of Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Prediction Researches, is collaborating with researchers of seismology, history, archeology, and information science to investigate infrequent earthquakes using historical documents that record earthquakes and traces of disasters at archeological sites. To this end, we are creating a database of published historical sources of earthquakes to make the data readily accessible, and reexamining these sources and uncovering new historical material to investigate earthquakes that occurred in pre-modern times. We are also engaged in research on relief efforts for victims of past earthquakes and the post-disaster reconstruction process.

Description: Rapid urbanization and modernization are increasing worldwide, including in Myanmar. Mobile call detail records (CDRs) provide new opportunities for measuring transport demands and problems in transportation planning. This research aims to analyze trip distributions and transit behaviors of mobile phone users based on their call activities. Origin-Destination (O-D) pairs were computed for the entire city, and the trip distributions help understand human mobility. It was found that zone-to-zone flow has the highest flow in commercial and industrial areas. Moreover, the logical assumptions were specified to extract the transit behaviors of users. The results indicate the degree of mode-to-mode transfer behaviors of users. Among the four categories of transit usage, only rail users do not transfer to other modes, having the lowest proportion, with other mode-to-other mode transfers having the highest proportion. The results were validated with the Person Trip Survey for Comprehensive Urban Transport Plan of the Greater Yangon. This study contributes significantly to the expansion of current and potential future transit systems, which can provide a new and improved transport system for Yangon City to meet its demands. This information is helpful in conducting disaster management and emergency preparedness in terms of trip distributions of human mobility patterns changing over space and time and the transit behaviors of the transferring mode in daily trips.

Description: Rapid growth in private vehicle ownership and usage is one of the key problems in the development of a sustainable transportation system for Yangon City. Car ownership depends on the land use patterns and socioeconomic characteristics of a city. Socioeconomic factors, including age, gender, income, house type, and family size also affect the choice of transportation mode and destination in the short and long terms, while the choice of housing location is affected in the long term. In this study, aggregate level land use data and disaggregate level individual and household data are used to determine the effects of land use and socioeconomic factors on household decisions to own zero, one, and two or more cars. This research models car ownership by the estimating multinomial logit model using SPSS (Statistical Packages for Social Sciences). The result suggests that income level, house type of a household, and the housing location have influence on car ownership in Yangon City. The car ownership level will be higher if the household number in the central business district (CBD), inner ring area, and outer ring area is increased. Increase in low income and normal income households will reduce the probability of car ownership in the suburban area.

Description: Understanding of system requirements that satisfy end users’ needs is fundamental of system development, yet challenging when end users are unable to address their needs explicitly. Although a number of scholars have been designing and applying requirement elicitation techniques, there is a research gap in Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) with Web-based Geographical Information System (Web-GIS) in water resource management for disaster risk reduction. The gap addresses especially design elicitation techniques and their performances 1) to understand data types used for decision making, 2) set timing for sharing the data to accomplish end users’ tasks, and 3) compile the data to be represented so as to facilitate end users’ decision making. This study therefore designed a requirement elicitation technique by advancing User Story Mapping (USM) and validated through a workshop using mock-up system interface with potential end users who are in charge of water resource management in Myanmar’s Bago River Basin. Through the research it could be validated that the user stories-based approach enabled end users to decompose their operation activities into tasks. It also allowed them to link to necessary data with visual image for facilitating their task accomplishments and decision making for water resource management. It was revealed that the benefits of using the designed approach are not only just to summarize necessary data and information for end users’ decision making but also to encourage them to proactively consider data utilization into their operations. For further development of the requirement elicitation to understand end users needs, insights and recommendations for the proposed technique designing and conducting of the workshop were obtained.

Description: In Japan, many recovery plans were instituted after big disasters such as the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake occurred. This study focuses on recent big disasters in Japan, namely the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake, and clarifies the trends of the measures mentioned in the recovery plans of damaged municipalities according to their local characteristics (locations and population trends). In order to show the trends, the Genre Mention Rate (GMR) and the Measure Mention Rate (MMR) are calculated, which depict the mention rate – the importance that certain genres or measures have. In the municipalities damaged by the tsunami caused by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, the GMRs of community, infrastructure, and culture are high in rural areas. There is not much difference in terms of population trends. In those damaged by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, the GMRs of lifestyle and industry are high in rural areas, while the GMRs of community and disaster mitigation are low in urban areas. The GMRs of disaster mitigation and community are also high in areas with increasing populations. In the municipalities damaged by the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake, the GMRs are generally high in urban areas, and low in areas with decreasing populations. In this way, depending on the type of disaster and local characteristics of the affected areas, there are many differences in the trends of the measures needed for recovery.

Description: This paper presents the results of a questionnaire survey conducted on those who had difficulty commuting after the 2018 Osaka earthquake. As with the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, serious traffic congestion occurred in downtown Osaka following the 2018 disaster. Based on the questionnaire survey on those who had difficulty commuting, which is considered to be a factor of traffic congestion, it was found that 60–70% commuted as usual after the earthquake; about half of the commuters who usually take the train changed their method of commuting, one-quarter of whom used automobiles; there were very few who experienced problems in their work because they had not gone to work or their workplace had closed down for the day; and many felt that it would be better to receive instructions on work attendance in the aftermath of an earthquake. The present study points out the need for companies and society to adopt rules so that those who find it difficult to commute will refrain from going to work and remain in their local communities to help others, except for those in certain occupations or positions.

Description: Technological developments in muography have evolved since the first volcano was imaged with muography in 2007. In order to improve the muography technique as a more useful aid to volcano studies, there is a need for the time required to show the resultant images to be shortened. To expedite this process, an automatic real-time visualization system was developed and tested. In conjunction with future scaled-up detectors that will collect muons faster, this visualization system can also offer more practical and efficient tools for volcano muography.

Description: It is important to discern in real time the risk level of rain-related disasters such as floods and landslides in order to maintain readiness against heavy-rainfall disasters and to decide on the suitable response measures. In this study, we developed an information processing technology that employs hazard information which indicates the risk of inundation or landslides. It also presents indices of social vulnerability and applies the spatial resolution functions of a geographic information system (GIS) to extract in real time the highly exposed and vulnerable areas that are faced with an increased risk of flooding or landslides. The technology’s validity was verified using a case study – namely, the heavy rainfall that accompanied a pressure front in August, 2019. The results show that, with respect to flood risks, we were able to extract in real time specific areas where flooding may be taking place, thus demonstrating the possibility of applying the technology to decide priorities in disaster response measures. Future issues are related to information dissemination, including the specific labeling and expressions that are easy for the user to understand as well as improving the user interface so as to facilitate delivery of relevant risk information in real time.

Description: After a natural disaster occurs, the production and sharing of damage reports are extremely important for a disaster response site. However, one of the problems is that the data shared by the damage reports cannot clearly indicate when the damage situation could be grasped because such data change day by day. Accordingly, in this study, the data of the damage reports of the Headquarters for Disaster Control are treated as unequally spaced time series data to evaluate the changing conditions of the data quantitatively. For this purpose, a case is examined for the Headquarters for Disaster Control of Fukuoka Prefecture at the time of the Northern Kyushu Heavy Rainfall event in July 2017. As a result of the examination, it is indicated that the quantitative evaluation would be possible for 1) analysis on timing when the data of the damage reports are updated, 2) analysis on the characteristics of time series of the report data, and 3) visualization of the progress of the damage report service.

Description: In recent years, participatory bosai (disaster prevention) map creation activities have been gaining ground for the effective promotion of community-based disaster management. The participation of school-going children and local residents is a key feature of this map creation activity. Engagement is important for promoting ownership and the effective use of bosai maps. However, there still remains a “just make and complete” problem, even when a bosai map is successfully created in a participatory manner. In order to solve this issue, it is important to focus not only on the map, but also on the preparation process and the period after its completion. This study conceptualizes the entire process of bosai mapmaking as a “bosai map cycle.” The research was implemented in the manner of action research to deal with the practical issues we faced during school disaster education of bosai mapmaking, and is aimed at overcoming potential issues by activating the “bosai map cycle.” Consequently, diverse people were involved in bosai mapmaking, including local residents who were not previously involved in the process. It is important to carry out bosai map creation activities as a cycle of pre- and post-creation.

Description: Various studies have examined soil liquefaction and the resultant structure damage. The 1995 Southern Hyogo Prefecture Earthquake, a near-field earthquake, caused significant damage when the ground was liquified due to the rapidly increased pore water pressure in several cycles of major motions. Therefore, the effect of pore water movement during earthquakes has been assumed to be limited, and liquefaction has mainly been evaluated in undrained conditions. Additionally, the ground and building settlement or inclination caused by liquefaction are deemed to result from pore water drainage after earthquakes. Meanwhile, in the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, off the Pacific Coast, a subduction-zone earthquake, long-duration motions were observed for over 300 s with frequent aftershocks. Long-duration motions with frequent aftershocks are also anticipated in a future Nankai Trough Earthquake. The effect of pore water movement not only after but during an earthquake should be considered in cases where pore water pressure gradually increases in long-duration motion. The movement of pore water during and after an earthquake typically results in simultaneous dissipation and buildup of water pressure, as well as volumetric changes associated with settlement and lateral spreading. Such effects must reasonably be considered in liquefaction evaluation and building damage prediction. This research focuses on pore water seepage into the unsaturated surface layer caused by the movement of pore water. Seepage experiments were performed based on parameters such as height of test ground, ground surface permeability, and liquefaction duration. In the tests, water pressure when the saturated ground below the groundwater level is fully liquified was applied to the bottom of the specimen representing an unsaturated surface layer. Seepage behaviors into the unsaturated surface layer were then evaluated based on the experiment data. The results show that the water level rises due to pore water seepage from the liquefied ground into the unsaturated surface layer right above the liquefied ground. For this reason, a ground shallower than the original groundwater level can be liquified.

Description: The frequency of severe flood events has been increasing recently in Japan. One of the latest events occurred in October 2019 and caused extensive damage in several river basins, especially in the central and northern regions of the country. In this study, we selected the Hitachi region (Hitachi-Omiya and Hitachi-Ota) within the Kuji River Basin which underwent considerable flooding due to the failure of embankments at two locations in the region. Maximum-possible flood inundation maps were generated using survey-based data and hydrological modeling for the Hitachi region. These maps incorporated the flood scenarios (embankment failures). All the generated products were compared with the reference flood mapping, i.e., Sentinel-1 data and Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (GSI) data for that region. It was observed that generated flood inundation mapping product based on the survey-data yielded results similar to those obtained with GSI data for the Hitachi region. Although each flood mapping product has advantages and disadvantages, they can be a good reference for the proper management and mitigation of flood disaster in the future. The rapid development of flood inundation mapping products that consider varying flood scenarios is an important part of flood mitigation strategies.

Description: People with special needs are at higher risk during a disaster than those without because of delayed disaster evacuation behaviors. Therefore, one of the top priorities in the field of disaster risk reduction is implementing evacuation support for the people with special needs. However, assistance is often limited, especially in areas with declining and aging populations. In addition, past evacuation activities for people with special needs have tended to focus on the barriers they face and assistance they need during evacuation rather than their utilizable capabilities. Therefore, this study considers evacuation drills that utilize the capabilities of people with special needs. An “indoor evacuation drill” was developed and the evacuation behaviors of residents with special needs were analyzed. An indoor evacuation drill is defined as an evacuation activity that participants carry out within their own homes – for example, evacuating from the bedroom to an exit. In coastal areas, such a drill helps residents prepare to evacuate their homes in case of a tsunami, while in mountainous regions, it helps them prepare for evacuation to the upper floors in case of a landslide. The study participants were residents of Hamamachi ward (a coastal area) and Kumai ward (a mountainous area) in Kuroshio town, Kōchi Prefecture, Japan. The results indicate that an indoor evacuation drill conducted in the participants’ living area, such as the entrance or second floor of their home, is easier to implement than usual disaster evacuation drills, and helps people with special needs regain autonomy in disaster risk reduction activities. Moreover, the participation rate of the target population in local evacuation drills increased after participating in the indoor evacuation drills. Existing evacuation drills often overlook people with special needs, and delays in disaster prevention for this population are often associated with their lack of interest in related activities. However, the results of this study suggest that disaster prevention activities themselves sometimes overlook the challenges faced by people with special needs and prevent them from participating.

Description: The infiltration of rainfall into a slope surface may affect slope stability; thus, it is important to understand the amount of rainfall infiltration (hereafter referred to as the “infiltration capacity”) for a slope surface layer when evaluating slope stability. This research focuses on slope gradient, a factor affecting the infiltration capacity, and performs two types of water-spraying experiments using pit sand under the same conditions but with different slope gradients. In the first experiment, the surface flow rate and soil loss were measured using an earth-tank model with a horizontal distance of 0.5 m, depth of 0.1 m, and width of 0.2 m to form slope gradients of 2°, 20°, and 40° to clarify the effect of slope gradient on the infiltration capacity. In the second experiment, a water-spraying experiment that closely simulated natural rainfall was performed at a large-scale rainfall facility owned by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED), Japan. This experiment used an earth-tank model with a horizontal distance of 1.21 m, depth of 0.5 m, and width of 0.5 m to form slope gradients of 2°, 10°, 20°, 30°, and 40° with the aim of proposing a quantitative evaluation method for the relationship between the slope gradient and infiltration capacity. The results showed that the soil loss and infiltration capacity increased as the slope gradient increased in the case of the pit sand used in the experiments. This was confirmed to be due to the fact that an increased gradient allowed grains with diameters of

Description: In August 2017, Hurricane Harvey brought an unprecedented amount of rainfall and catastrophic flooding to the Houston metropolitan area, as it stalled near the coast of Texas for several days after weakening to a tropical storm intensity. The present study examines the relationship between tropical cyclone rainfall totals over Texas and the track, residence time, rainfall intensity, and rainfall area coverage of past tropical cyclones that approached Texas after 1979. The most significant factor affecting rainfall totals over Texas is whether a tropical cyclone makes landfall on the central coast of Texas and travel inland. Another significant factor is the length of time a tropical cyclone resides near Texas. Rainfall intensity also contributes in part to rainfall totals over Texas, whereas contribution of rainfall area coverage is not significant. The track of a tropical cyclone traveling near Texas is controlled by the steering winds over Texas, while its residence time near Texas is related partly to the meandering of the subtropical jets. Rainfall rate depends on the intensity of tropical cyclone. No significant relationship between rainfall intensity and environmental moisture in the lower atmosphere is found in the present analysis. Furthermore, the extreme rainfall totals over Texas induced by Harvey can be attributed to the combined effect of extreme long-term stalling of Harvey near the central coast of Texas and the higher rainfall rate.

Description: This study developed a snow load alert system, known as the “YukioroSignal”; this system aims to provide a widespread area for assessing snow load distribution and the information necessary for aiding house roof snow removal decisions in snowy areas of Japan. The system was released in January 2018 in Niigata Prefecture, Japan, and later, it was expanded to Yamagata and Toyama prefectures in January 2019. The YukioroSignal contains two elements: the “Quasi-Real-Time Snow Depth Monitoring System,” which collects snow depth data, and the numerical model known as SNOWPACK, which can calculate the snow water equivalent (SWE). The snow load per unit area is estimated to be equivalent to SWE. Based on the house damage risk level, snow load distribution was indicated by colors following the ISO 22324. The system can also calculate post-snow removal snow loads. The calculated snow load was validated by using the data collected through snow pillows. The simulated snow load had a root mean square error (RMSE) of 21.3%, which was relative to the observed snow load. With regard to residential areas during the snow accumulation period, the RMSE was 13.2%. YukioroSignal received more than 56,000 pageviews in the snowheavy 2018 period and 26,000 pageviews in the less snow-heavy 2019 period.

Description: There exists many road embankments in Japan which are not earthquake resistant. For example, a road embankment collapsed at Okuradani IC in Hyogo Prefecture during the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake of 1995. In 2009, a road embankment along the Tomei Expressway collapsed during an earthquake with epicenter in Suruga Bay. Road failure makes relief activity and transportation of goods difficult, causing social damage. Furthermore, recovery of damaged embankments takes much time and cost. Accordingly, it is important to conduct research on methods of construction which would help build embankments inexpensively and swiftly. Against this background, a full-scale experiment was conducted at E-Defense to confirm the validity of a method of construction that uses flexible container bag to pack soil for quick embankment recovery. Generally, flexible container bags are easy to handle, and ensure and maintain the earthquake resistance performance of embankments after the completion of recovery work, taking the longer life time of the reinforced structure into consideration. In the experiment, two kinds of reinforced structures with flexible container bags stacked differently were placed at either toe of the slope of an embankment of height 4 m, and shake tests were performed three times to compare the effectiveness of both reinforced structures. For both kinds of structures, the flexible container bags were stacked in two tiers and compressed from top and bottom using compression plates to make the structures rigid. One of the structures was one-tier type where the flexible container bags were stacked in series and the other was two-tier type where the flexible container bags were stacked along the side of the embankment. In the case with the target acceleration of sine wave of 376 Gal, crack occurred on the reinforced structure of one-tier type, but the embankment collapsed a little near the top of the slope. There was little displacement in both reinforced structures, hence, it is judged that the deformation would not impair the functionality of the road. As for the seismic performance, it can be said that the two-tier type would be slightly superior to one-tier type, however, this assumption cannot be evaluated decisively under the present circumstances. For practical use in future, form, size, workability, and economy of embankment should be examined for designing and construction which takes the specification of the structure into consideration.

Description: In order to contribute to the field of disaster science, various research in Japan currently focus on the clarification of the phenomenon called “disaster.” Due to society’s demand for disaster prevention and disaster mitigation, these researches are carried out through collaboration among researchers in science, engineering, humanities, social sciences, etc. These research outcomes are aimed at the following: verification of disaster cases of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions; clarification of the disaster occurrence mechanisms of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions; sophistication of information for disaster mitigation of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions; and development of researchers, engineers, and human resources involved in disaster prevention operations and disaster prevention responses. This article puts these research outcomes together from four points of view: 1) research on earthquakes and volcanic eruptions disaster cases, 2) clarification of disaster occurrence mechanisms of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, 3) sophistication of information for disaster mitigation of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, and 4) development of researchers, engineers, and human resources involved in disaster prevention operations and disaster prevention responses.

Description: Area-Business Continuity Management (Area-BCM) is a new disaster management concept developed by the Japan International Cooperation Agency in 2013. One of the greatest challenges encountered in achieving a successful implementation of Area-BCM is the public–private partnership. Since stakeholder analysis is the key to understanding the complex relationships among all the parties involved, a variety of methods for and approaches to stakeholder analysis have been developed in several fields and with different objectives. Although studies on stakeholder analysis are attracting more attention, the number of studies on stakeholder analysis in the field of disaster management is still limited. The purpose of this study is to explore several stakeholder analysis methods applied to disaster management, particularly Area-BCM. By reviewing research articles in the ScienceDirect database from 1990 to 2018, this review article categorizes stakeholder analysis methods into three groups: (1) identifying stakeholders, (2) differentiating and categorizing stakeholders, and (3) investigating relationships among stakeholders. This study also identifies the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (i.e., performs a SWOT analysis) of each existing method. Further, this study promotes the significance and advantages of stakeholder analysis in disaster management, especially in Area-BCM-related projects by helping researchers and practitioners to understand the existing stakeholder analysis methods and select the appropriate one.

Description: A time domain electromagnetic survey (TDEM method) was conducted to investigate the resistivity structure of the crater, fumarole, and hot spring area of the Nasudake (Chausudake) volcano. The findings of this survey are as follows: (1) Under the crater area, a thin low-resistivity layer (approximately 50 m) was found on the surface, and lens-shaped high-resistivity areas continued to a depth of 800 m below it. The lens-shaped high-resistivity areas are believed to correspond to a thermal volcanic gas region. (2) From the east-west direction survey line crossing the foot of the Nasudake, two or three horizontal resistivity layer structures, which are considered to be caused by the geological structure and surface water, were observed.

Description: The increasing flood risks in the Bago River due to rapid urbanization and climate change have great implications on the local development and quality of life in the basin. Therefore, the current flood hazard and potential future changes in flooding due to climate change must be assessed. This study investigates the potential flood frequency change in the Bago River and its sensitivity to the bias-correction method used in climate projections from the downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) output. A pseudo-global warming method using MIROC5 RCP 8.5 was employed to produce 12-km 30-y historical and future climate projections. Empirical quantile mapping (EQM), gamma quantile mapping (GQM), and the multiplicative scaling method (SCM) were used for bias-correcting the rainfall input of the water-energy budget distributed hydrological model (WEB-DHM). The impacts of bias-correction methods used in reproducing the annual maximum series in the frequency analysis are sensitive to the trend of potential future changes in flood discharge frequency estimation. All methods exhibited decreases in the flood peak discharge for 50-yr and 100-yr flood predictions, which may primarily be due to the MIROC5 GCM used. However, the variation in the magnitude of the change is wide. This demonstrates the uncertainty of the frequency analysis for flood magnitude due to the employed bias-correction method. This uncertainty has significant implications on risk quantification conducted using downscaled climate projections. The effect of the uncertainty of the bias-correction method on the annual maximum rainfall time series should be communicated properly when conducting risk and hazard assessment studies.

Description: To mitigate a volcanic eruption disaster, it is important to forecast the transition of the disaster, which depends on the stage of the volcanic phenomena, in addition to forecasting the site, scale, and time of the volcanic activities. To make such forecasts, it is critical to elucidate the evolution of volcanic activity. Accordingly, the Volcano Program Promotion Panel has set the prioritized target as “to forecast volcanic eruption as a cause of disaster by clarifying the branching conditions and theories of volcanic activity and improving volcanic event tree.” The panel promoted a five-year study on the elucidation of volcanic phenomena, including low-frequency and large-scale ones, status of volcanic eruption fields, volcanic eruption modeling, observation method development, and observation system improvement. In this paper, an outline of the main results of this five-year study is presented.

Description: The downtown area in Yangon city, Myanmar, frequently experiences heavy traffic; one of the reasons is rampant illegal parking of cars on the streets. It has been pointed out in several studies that this area would be severely affected when a disaster occurs, and hence it is essential to clarify the effect of such undesirable parking behavior on the reduction in capacity of the Yangon road network. The purpose of this research is to illustrate the unfavorable traffic conditions that would result from on-street parking in downtown Yangon. We studied the mathematical relationship between travel distance and flow volume, and clarified the following mechanism. (i) On-street parking reduces the speed of vehicles on the streets. (ii) The unbalance of speed causes deviation of the shortest-time route from the shortest-distance route. (iii) An increase in total travel distance results in an increase in flow volume. We have also presented numerical results based on the detailed GIS data for downtown Yangon, and examined two scenarios that describe both evacuation and normal-life situations.

Description: The Bago River Basin in Myanmar is highly flood-prone. To develop a flood forecasting system, an inundation map of the Bago River Basin is required. This study applied the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model and SOBEK model to simulate flood discharges and inundation to determine the model most suitable for analysis of the study basin in terms of user friendliness, cost, type of output, and correlation between simulated and observed data. In this study, five flood events were selected to calibrate and validate the models, using discharge data measured at Bago station. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) and coefficient of determination (R2) were used to evaluate the performance of the models. The simulated flood inundation area was validated with satellite images. According to the comparison, the SOBEK model is more accurate than the RRI model, and the simulated and observed discharges are closely related. However, when the calculation time and cost are included in the consideration, the RRI model is preferable, as it is faster and freely available. For the Bago River Basin, the RRI model is efficient in predicting the potential flood duration and areas of inundation in near-real time, whereas the SOBEK model is useful for floodplain management. This study shows that the RRI and SOBEK models are applicable to any basin in Myanmar that is similar to the Bago River Basin.

Description: The use of public buses constitutes the primary daily transportation mode for commuters inside the city of Yangon. The efficiency of the public bus transportation service is important to the local government in terms of public safety and energy saving. The main objective of this study is to understand the current public bus transportation problems in Yangon and to propose a new improved method for the allocation of bus stops. In this study, an on-board survey was conducted to collect bus-passenger counts. Moreover, a check-point survey was carried out to determine the passenger volume at each bus stop and to decide whether the bus stop should be relocated. Finally, a geographic information systems (GIS) model was developed to determine the optimized bus-stop locations based on the passenger volume and on various public-facility locations (such as offices and shopping centers). This study aims to support the Yangon Bus Service (YBS), a major bus transportation service in Yangon city – Myanmar, to optimize its bus network.

Description: We propose a method to evaluate the potential volume of eruptive material using the seismic energy of volcanic earthquakes prior to eruptions of Merapi volcano. For this analysis, we used well-documented eruptions of Merapi volcano with pyroclastic flows (1994, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2006, and 2010) and the rates and magnitudes of volcano-tectonic A-type, volcano-tectonic B-type, and multiphase earthquakes before each of the eruptions. Using the worldwide database presented by White and McCausland [1], we derived a log-linear formula that describes the upper limit of the potential volume of erupted material estimated from the cumulative seismic energy of distal volcano-tectonic earthquakes. The relationship between the volume of pyroclastic material and the cumulative seismic energy released in 1994, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2006, and 2010 at Merapi volcano is well-approximated by the empirical formula derived from worldwide data within an order of magnitude. It is possible to expand this to other volcanic eruptions with short (〈 30 years) inter-eruptive intervals. The difference in the intruded and extruded volumes between intrusions and eruptions, and the selection of the time period for the cumulative energy calculation are problems that still need to be addressed.

Description: Constituent minerals and water-soluble components of the volcanic ash discharged from the eruption of Mt. Motoshirane on January 23, 2018, were analyzed to investigate the source environment of this eruption. The ash sample included quartz, plagioclase, cristobalite, pyrite, alunite, kaolinite, and pyrophyllite; its mineral assemblage suggests that a high-temperature acid alteration zone had been formed in the volcanic edifice of Mt. Motoshirane. The presence of pyrophyllite in the ash sample indicates that the explosion of this eruption took place at a depth reaching the basement rocks of Mt. Motoshirane. Further, the adhesion amount of water-soluble components detected from the ash sample is smaller than that in the ashes from the 1982 eruption of Mt. Shirane, indicating that the ash discharge of the 2018 eruption of Mt. Motoshirane took place in a condition in which the degree of involvement of the liquid phase was relatively small.

Description: This paper presents a theoretical method for estimating volcanic ash fall rate from the eruption of Sinabung Volcano on February 19, 2018 using an X-band multi-parameter radar (X-MP radar). The X-MP radar was run in a sectoral range height indicator (SRHI) scan mode for 6° angular range (azimuth of 221°–226°) and at an elevation angle of 7° to 40° angular range. The distance of the radar is approximately 8 km in the Southeastern direction of the vent of Mount Sinabung. Based on a three-dimensional (3-D) image of the radar reflectivity factor, the ash column height was established to be more than 7.7 km, and in-depth information on detectable tephra could be obtained. This paper aims to present the microphysical parameters of volcanic ash measured by X-MP radar, which are the tephra concentration and the fall-out rate. These parameters were calculated in a two-step stepwise approach microphysical model using the scaled gamma distribution. The first step was ash classification based on a set of training data on synthetic ash and its estimated reflectivity factor. Using a naïve Bayesian classification, the measured reflectivity factors from the eruption were classified into the classification model. The second step was estimating the volcanic ash concentration and the fall-out rate by power-law function. The model estimated a maximum of approximately 12.9 g·m-3of ash concentration from the coarse ash class (mean diameterDn= 0.1 mm) and a minimum of approximately 0.8 megatons of volcanic ash mass accumulation from the eruption.

Description: The common situational awareness among the disaster-response organizations and the appropriate action based on the information sharing are the key factor for the effective and efficient disaster response. Supported by the Cross-ministerial Strategic Innovation Promotion Program (SIP), we have developed the Shared Information Platform for Disaster Management (SIP4D) which facilitate the “cross-ministerial information sharing” by intermediating the various governmental organizations. Also, as the empirical research for utilize the shared disaster-information by SIP4D, we have developed the Medical Activity Support System for Disaster Management, the Reservoir Disaster Prevention Support System, and the Disaster Management Information Service Platform. In this paper, we introduce the overview of our R&D project, and report the implementation plans of our systems in the society.

Description: In 2016, we launched the “Promotion Project for Next Generation Volcano Research B2 (Theme B: Development of Cutting-edge Volcano Observation Technology, subtheme 2: Development of Remote Sensing Techniques for Volcano Observation), subtopic 2-2 (Development of Remote Sensing Techniques for Surface Phenomena of Volcano)” under the “Integrated Program for Next Generation Volcano Research and Human Resources Development” [1], aiming at the development of an optical multispectral remote sensing system for measuring volcanic surface phenomena. With subtopic 2-2, we are planning to develop a new observation device called a surface phenomena imaging camera (SPIC), which is technically superior to current remote sensing techniques, i.e., optical remote observation techniques used to observe volcanic surface phenomena from aircrafts or ground. We are also aiming at applying the developed observation system to quantify volcanic activities and determine volcanic eruption potentials (degrees of urgency) or branching of event trees for volcanic crises with high accuracy, contributing to better predictions of volcanic eruption transitions. To achieve the above-mentioned aims, we started the development of the SPIC by equipping it with camera-type sensors, based on preliminary analyses of the experimental observations made with the airborne spectral imaging system ARTS-SE, which consists of a pushbroom scanner and a camera system, developed by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience in FY 2015. We have already developed its components, such as the prototype filter-type multiband cameras SPIC-UC, a prototype uncooled infrared camera, SPIC-C, a cooled camera, and SPIC-SS, a visible-light camera. The SPIC-UC is a two-band camera with the function of visualizing temperature and SO2 gas concentration distributions. The SPIC-C has the function of measuring temperatures between 2 and 1075◦C with high accuracy (noise equivalent temperature difference, NETD: 16 mK); it is equipped with a sensor and a filter wheel that work in the middle wave infrared region (MWIR). The SPIC-SS is a six-lens multiband camera system that estimates the measured images from multiband spectra (6 bands) to hyper spectra (300 bands). Further, we studied a method to estimate digital surface model with a ∼30-m error. As our plan has progressed as scheduled, we intend to complete the prototype SPIC by 2020.

Description: This paper presents the major specifications and characteristics of the Ku-band high-speed scanning Doppler radar for volcano observation (KuRAD) introduced to Kagoshima University in March 2017 as well as the results of a test observation at Sakurajima. KuRAD is a Doppler radar for research with a wavelength of approximately 2 cm and uses a 45 cm diameter Luneberg lens antenna as a transmitting and receiving antenna to observe the development of a volcanic eruption column immediately following eruption at a maximum rotation speed of 40 rpm. The maximum transmitter power is 9.6 W and the maximum observational range is 20 km. Observed data includes radar reflectivity factor, Doppler velocity, and Doppler spectrum width. Another feature of KuRAD is an obtained radio station license for observation of a total of seven active volcanos in Kyushu. To assess the basic performance of KuRAD, we carried out test observations of volcanic eruptions at Sakurajima, Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan and collected a total of 87 eruptions (20 of which are explosive eruptions and 7 of which had 3,000 m or higher eruptive smoke from vents). From the eruption data of Showa vent on May 2, 2017, it was confirmed that KuRAD could monitor the three-dimensional internal structure of a volcanic eruption column immediately following eruption. Eruption data from Minamidake of Sakurajima on March 5, 2018, showed that KuRAD successfully observed the eruptive smoke reaching a height of 4,000 m, although the eruptive smoke was covered with clouds and could not be detected by optical instruments of the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Description: As volcanic hazards induce damage with their flows of gases, liquids, and solid materials, a numerical simulation using multi-phase formulation is applicable to the analysis and evaluation of the risks from these volcanic hazards in both normal and emergent periods. A numerical simulation can also be useful for crisis management. Quick and precise evaluation is needed for upcoming and ongoing hazards, and we present here a concept for the development of a volcanic hazard evaluation system for these hazards, a system in which an input parameter database is compiled and countermeasure information is provided by considering the exposure and vulnerability database.

Description: After the 1960 Great Chilean Tsunami, coastal dikes were remodeled and new ones constructed in Japan. In 1968, immediately after the completion of those construction and remodeling works, the Tokachi-Oki Earthquake struck, but fortunately the structures involved sustained very little damage. This led to a general feeling that it was possible to protect against the tsunamis completely by simply building coastal dikes and other defense structures. Japan did not see an increase in the number of tsunami researchers, but things were worse in the U.S. The National Science Foundation allocated its tsunami-related budget only to the NOAA, which issues tsunami forecasts, and allocated the rest of the budget entirely to ocean development. This situation continued until the 1983 Nihonkai-Chubu Earthquake Tsunami struck. In 1992, there was a tsunami earthquake off the coast of Nicaragua. Following that, research was conducted based on international cooperation through fax communications. Then cooperative international research continued to be done on tsunamis such as the 1992 Flores Tsunami, the 1993 Hokkaido Nansei-Oki Earthquake Tsunami, and the 1996 Irian Jaya Tsunami. However, their findings were provided only through Proceedings of the International Tsunami Symposium every two years, and most of the findings were limited to factual information about tsunamis. Requests for information on tsunamis rapidly increased after the 2004 Great Indian Ocean Tsunami, information not only on the tsunami itself but also on tsunami countermeasures. It was when JDR made its appearance. The JDR disseminated the latest information for practical use. It also benefitted those who were the sources of information, as they no longer had to deal with the frustration of having to wait for conferences held only every two years. In addition, the JDR reviews submissions much more quickly than do other journals. Tsunamis, such as the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Tsunami and the 2018 Sulawesi Earthquake Tsunami, continue to strike. As a platform for sharing knowledge related to reconstruction and countermeasures, as well as to tsunamis themselves, the importance the JDR is growing. This is why you are encouraged to contribute to the JDR.

Description: In this study, a procedure to measure the viscosity of multi-phase magma at high temperatures (〉1000°C) was developed by using a simple apparatus comprising a commercially available desktop furnace and viscometer. In particular, the use of a disposable container enabled observations of the microstructure of an entire sample. The procedure was applied to basaltic andesite magma of the 1986 Izu–Oshima fissure eruption, Japan. The results show that reliable data, consistent with previous studies, were obtained and that the magma rheology became non-Newtonian with decreasing temperature, showing clear shear-thinning behavior. The rheological properties of the magma at 1180°C are quantitatively described as a function of shear rate based on three simple non-Newtonian fluid models. Sectional views of the sample confirm that plagioclase and Fe–Ti oxide crystals were nearly uniformly dispersed in the sample. The mean crystal volume fraction of 0.14 enabled crystal interactions inducing changes in crystal arrangement, affecting the rheology.

Description: We have developed a new numerical model suitable for rapid and wide-area estimation of tsunami inundation and damage. The model is based on the world-renowned TUNAMI code solving the two-dimensional nonlinear shallow water equations, and enables one-stop simulation of the initial tsunami distribution based on a fault model, tsunami propagation and inundation, and damage estimation. It extends the configuration of the grid system from conventional rectangular regions to polygonal regions so that deployment of high-resolution grids can be confined to the coastal lowland, resulting in remarkably improved efficiency in computation and better precision. For the purpose of real-time implementation of tsunami inundation simulation using a high-performance computing infrastructure, vectorization and MPI parallelization have also been conducted. Moreover, the model was verified and validated through several benchmark problems that the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, organized by federal agencies and states in the U.S., developed as the quality standards for simulating and assessing tsunami hazard and risk. The newly-developed model is named “Real-time Tsunami inundation (RTi) model,” and its computational performance was examined using the SX-ACE, a vector supercomputer installed at Tohoku University. The results show that it requires only 128 cores of the SX-ACE for implementing six-hour tsunami inundation simulation with a 10-meter grid resolution within 10 minutes for the 700 km long coastline of Kochi Prefecture, Japan. This means that the RTi model is over 10 times more efficient as the conventional tsunami model with the rectangular domains, and it can be inferred that 2,451 cores of the SX-ACE are the overall computational resources needed for real-time tsunami inundation forecast on the whole coastal regions along the Nankai Trough subduction zone, corresponding to the computational performance of 170 Tflop/s. The resources required are equivalent to 24% of all the SX-ACE resources at Tohoku University, indicating the feasibility of real-time tsunami inundation forecast on a regional scale by using the RTi model. Since the Disaster Information System operated by the Cabinet Office of the Japanese Government adopted a function of tsunami damage estimation using the aforementioned numerical model, at the end of this paper, a brief overview of the subsystem for rapidly estimating tsunami damage on a regional scale is described.

Description: Disasters have caused serious damage on human beings throughout their long history. In a major natural disaster such as an earthquake, a key to mitigate the damage is evacuation. Evidently, secondary collateral disasters is account for more casualty than the initial one. In order to have citizens to evacuate safely for the sake of saving their lives, collecting information is vital. However at times of a disaster, it is a difficult task to gain environmental information about the area by conventional way. One of the solutions to this problem is crowd-sensing, which regards citizens as sensors nodes and collect information with their help. We considered a way of controlling the mobility of such sensor nodes under limitation of its mobility, caused by road blockage, for example. Aiming to make a mobility control scheme that enables high-quality information collection, our method uses preceding result of the measurement to control the mobility. Here it uses kriging variance to do that. We evaluated this method by simulating some measurements and it showed better accuracy than baseline. This is expected to be a method to enable a higher-quality input to the agent-based evacuation simulation, which helps to guide people to evacuate more safely.

Description: The study focused on the research and development of ICT for disaster preparedness and response with respect to two categories, namely, the delivery of alert messages to a wider group of residents and providing quick relief communications in affected areas. In the former category, the development focused on two targets, one involving the delivery of alert messages to indoor residents with a V-Low broadcasting service and the other involving the delivery of an alert message to individuals with disabilities and difficulties in understanding Japanese. In the latter category, a portable ICT unit was developed for rapid relief communications and mesh network technology enabling robust information sharing among base stations in the affected area was developed. Furthermore, a related development focused on a resilient information management system to collect information in areas that do not have access to the Internet. Furthermore, device relay technology was developed to expand access network cover areas. After the development of individual technology, activities for the societal implementation of the development results were conducted through field experiments and disaster drills in which the developed technologies were integrated and utilized.

Description: Enhancing social resilience in the event of natural disasters is a critical issue for Japan. It will requires a need huge efforts to further increase the physical preparedness; on the other hand, compared to increasing physical preparedness, enhancing social resilience is a cost-effective means of mitigating the effects of natural disasters. The Cross-ministerial Strategic Innovation Promotion program (SIP), the biggest national research program in Japan, selected a theme related to enhancing social resilience in the face of natural disasters in 2014. The authors of this special issue worked as a part of the SIP for five years and developed state-of-the-art technologies for the enhancement, namely, next-generation tsunami and heavy rain observation, integrated liquefaction counter-measures, methods for sharing disaster information, a real-time disaster estimation system, an emergency communication system, and the development of applications for regional use. Most of the technologies have been implemented in efforts at natural disaster mitigation following earthquakes and heavy rains in 2017 and 2018. The development and implementation of advanced technologies are the essence of the SIP because it aims to foster innovation. While the SIP is a Japanese government program, it promotes international utilization of the technologies it develops. There are many instances which might be studied better by developing and utilizing advanced technologies in various countries following different types of natural disasters. I hope that this special issue will be a gateway for readers who are interested in using such advanced technologies to mitigate natural disasters and enhance social resilience during such events.

Description: In the past, earthquakes have caused critical damage to bridges built on liquefiable ground, resulting in their collapse or long-term closures. In particular, for existing bridges designed in an age when the liquefaction influence was not considered, appropriate measures should be taken as necessary. However, there are many existing stocks of bridges, which require expensive foundation reinforcement. Therefore, it is crucial to appropriately choose bridge foundations for which anti-seismic measures are a high priority and implement the measures efficiently and successively. The present study aims to develop a seismic-performance assessment method and retrofitting technology for coping with liquefiable ground. For this purpose, a large shaking-table experiment was conducted to determine the effects of the liquefiable ground on bridge-foundation behavior and verify the effect of the retrofitting technology. Based on disaster-case analyses and the results of the shaking-table experiment, a seismic-performance assessment method applicable to practical designing was proposed.

Description: Techniques for quickly and easily estimating wide-area damage are required to support various activities for reducing damage in the event of a large earthquake. In this paper, using a wide-area evacuation simulator, we estimate property damage and human casualties in 32 densely built-up wooden residential areas in Tokyo, assuming a large earthquake. Furthermore, the relationships among local urban environment, property damage, and human casualties are analyzed using multiple regression analysis.

Description: Based on the lessons learned from the East Japan Great Earthquake of March 11, 2011, the authors have been engaged in the research and development of movable and deployable information and communication technology (ICT) resource units (MDRUs), which provide immediate and minimally required ICT service in areas struck by disaster. The MDRU is a transportable unit that contains equipment necessary for ICT service provisions and is designed to be quickly transported to and set up in affected areas after a natural disaster has struck. The unit is used to quickly construct a wireless local network in the area, and thus provide immediate and minimally required ICT service to the people in the area. In this paper, we describe MDRU technology and other technologies that lead to improved performance and/or service when connected or linked up with the unit. Along with this development, we have conducted various activities aimed at its international deployment. Specifically, we conducted trials with resident participation in the Philippines and Nepal to verify the validity of these technologies overseas, where we were able to confirm its validity under various conditions. Furthermore, we have undertaken activities for its standardization, and have succeeded in the standardization of MDRU at International Telecommunication Union Telecommunication Standardization Sector (ITU-T).

Description: Owing to the advances in information technology and heightened awareness regarding disaster response, many evacuation simulations have been performed by researchers in recent years. It is necessary to develop suitable disaster prevention plans or evacuation plans using data generated by such simulations. However, it is difficult to understand the simulation results in their original form because of the detailed and voluminous data generated. In this study, we focus on tensor decomposition, which is employed for analyzing multi-dimensional data, in order to analyze the evacuation simulation data, which often consists of multiple dimensions such as time and space. Tensor decomposition is applied to the movement trajectory data generated in the evacuation simulation with the objective of acquiring important disaster or evacuation patterns.

Description: With the aim of accurately predicting river water levels a few hours ahead in the event of a flood, we created a river water level prediction model consisting of a runoff model, a channel model, and data assimilation technique. We also developed a cascade assimilation method that allows us to calculate assimilations of water levels observed at multiple points using particle filters in real-time. As a result of applying the river water level prediction model to Arakawa Basin using the assimilation technique, it was confirmed that reproductive simulations that produce results very similar to the observed results could be achieved, and that we would be able to predict river water levels less affected by the predicted amount of rainfall.

Description: We announce that the Fourth JDR Award was won by Professor Emeritus Nobuo Shuto, Tohoku University, Japan. We congratulate the winner and sincerely wish for future success.

Description: Currently, structural equation modeling (SEM) is widely used in the discipline of social sciences because of its capability in exploring causal relationships among variables. By applying SEM, this study aims to verify the hypothesis that there exist three fundamental factors (religion, culture, education) that influence the perception of climate change. The researchers took advantages of the output results of the questionnaire survey that had been conducted both in Majuro, the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) and in Tarawa, Republic of Kiribati, in an international collaborative research project titled “How Religion, Culture and Education Influence the Perception of People about Climate Change.” The results indicated that the two cases, namely RMI and Kiribati, were similar; that is the basic structure of both cases in the background of climate change bears some resemblance. Meanwhile, it should be noted that the path coefficient from education to the perception of climate change in the case of Kiribati (0.86) is much higher than that in the case of RMI (0.47). Thus, it is implied that education may significantly influence the perception of people about climate change and its implications, both in RMI and Kiribati. Based on this finding, it is advocated that further efforts should be devoted to education so that the perception of people about climate change and its implications can get much clearer.

Description: Atoll countries in the Pacific, namely Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu, will become sources of climate migrants in the foreseeable future. This study aimed to examine if people in these atoll countries were, are, or will be ready to successfully relocate to foreign countries by re-establishing their lives and livelihoods in a new environment. An international collaborative research project was launched and implemented from 2017 to 2019. Case studies were conducted in Micronesia, Kiribati, and the Marshall Islands as the origin of climate migrants and in Fiji and the USA as their destination. It was found that a number of legal tools and practical policy measures are available for countries to alleviate the struggles of environmental migrants, despite the lack of a comprehensive legal framework that protects environmental migrants by allowing them to move to other countries. In addition, 65% of the college and university students in the Marshall Islands indicated education as their primary reason to migrate abroad, followed by work (15%), health (8%), family (7%), climate change (3%), and natural disasters (2%). The ratios of students who wished to migrate because of climate change were similar between the Marshall Islands (3%) and Micronesia (4%), despite the fact that the former is an atoll country and the latter is mostly composed of “high-lying islands.” As for the migrants from the Marshall Islands and Micronesia to the USA, climate change was revealed to be a contributing factor for some in their decision to migrate, and more so as a factor for not returning home. It was also found that education had more influence than religion or culture on people’s perception of climate change and its implications in the Marshall Islands and Kiribati. The policy implemented in Vienna, Austria was proved to be effective in avoiding the emergence of society and culture-bound mental illness, which is inherent to large, isolated ethnic communities.

Description: The current study explores the possible relationship between livelihood disruptions and displacement intentions in the short and long term, following a volcanic eruption. Previous studies in a similar context suggest that livestock breeding and farming remain important to the affected population in terms of livelihood maintenance, even when eruptions severely interrupt these activities. Other research findings suggest people consider eruptions opportunities to improve income through increased crop cultivations. Previous studies have concluded that people prefer to return to agricultural and farming activities, even if eruptions significantly disturb them. Little research, however, quantitatively addresses the impact of eruptions on income or explores the relationship between livelihood disruption and relocation intention. To understand this relationship, we conducted a questionnaire survey of villagers in the Kediri and Blitar districts of Indonesia who received an evacuation order during the 2014 Mt. Kelud eruption. We collected and analyzed the data from 440 valid responses. One of our major findings supports earlier research findings vis-à-vis the association between agricultural losses and villagers’ decisions to relocate in the long term. Our data suggest that villagers with no relocation intention had experienced larger agricultural losses, thus suggesting that agricultural losses do not constitute a large factor affecting relocation intention. Likewise, we found there to be no statistically significant relationship between livestock damages/losses and displacement intentions. These findings suggest the importance of further research into causal relationships among economic loss, farming damages and losses, and displacement intentions.