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  • Articles  (131,851)
  • Articles: DFG German National Licenses  (131,851)
  • Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering  (131,851)
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  • Articles  (131,851)
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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    BOOK REVIEWS: 1 (2004)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 24 (2004), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.564_1.x
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Comment on “Probabilistic Risk Analysis for a High-Level Radioactive Waste Repository” by B. L. Cohen in Risk Analysis, Volume 23, 909–915 (2004)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 24 (2004), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.537_1.x
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Role of the Standard Deviation in the Estimation of Benchmark Doses with Continuous Data (2004)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 24 (2004), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: For continuous data, risk is defined here as the proportion of animals with values above a large percentile, e.g., the 99th percentile or below the 1st percentile, for the distribution of values among control animals. It is known that reducing the standard deviation of measurements through improved experimental techniques will result in less stringent (higher) doses for the lower confidence limit on the benchmark dose that is estimated to produce a specified risk of animals with abnormal levels for a biological effect. Thus, a somewhat larger (less stringent) lower confidence limit is obtained that may be used as a point of departure for low-dose risk assessment. It is shown in this article that it is important for the benchmark dose to be based primarily on the standard deviation among animals, sa, apart from the standard deviation of measurement errors, sm, within animals. If the benchmark dose is incorrectly based on the overall standard deviation among average values for animals, which includes measurement error variation, the benchmark dose will be overestimated and the risk will be underestimated. The bias increases as sm increases relative to sa. The bias is relatively small if sm is less than one-third of sa, a condition achieved in most experimental designs.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.559_1.x
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Response to Sander Greenland's Critique of Bounding Analysis (2004)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 24 (2004), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00510.x
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Bounding Poorly Characterized Risks: A Lung Cancer Example (2004)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 24 (2004), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: For diseases with more than one risk factor, the sum of probabilistic estimates of the number of cases caused by each individual factor may exceed the total number of cases observed, especially when uncertainties about exposure and dose response for some risk factors are high. In this study, we outline a method of bounding the fraction of lung cancer fatalities not due to specific well-studied causes. Such information serves as a “reality check” for estimates of the impacts of the minor risk factors, and, as such, complements the traditional risk analysis. With lung cancer as our example, we allocate portions of the observed lung cancer mortality to known causes (such as smoking, residential radon, and asbestos fibers) and describe the uncertainty surrounding those estimates. The interactions among the risk factors are also quantified, to the extent possible. We then infer an upper bound on the residual mortality due to “other” causes, using a consistency constraint on the total number of deaths, the maximum uncertainty principle, and the mathematics originally developed of imprecise probabilities.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00508.x
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Combined Effects of Contaminant Desorption and Toxicity on Risk from PAH Contaminated Sediments (2004)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 24 (2004), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: A strong inverse correlation was observed between the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) mass fraction desorbed, a surrogate measure of bioavailability, and relative carcinogenicity, as quantified by potency equivalency factors (PEFs), for two study sediments from the New York/New Jersey Harbor estuary. Because compounds with the highest toxicity, such as dibenz(a,h)anthracene and benzo(a)pyrene (BAP), also tended to be the least rapidly and least extensively desorbed, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) default guidance may dramatically overestimate risk from exposure to PAH-contaminated soils or sediments. A “relative risk index” (RRI) was developed to account for the combined effects of compound-specific bioavailability and toxic potency in estimating excess cancer risk. Using this approach, estimated excess cancer risk may be diminished by as much as a factor of 159 times versus default EPA guidance. Also, the hierarchy of estimated risk between study sediments and among treatment fractions of study sediments differed using the two approaches, implying that the default approach may inaccurately determine site clean-up priorities. The percentage contribution of each potentially carcinogenic priority PAH to total excess cancer risk was computed under various scenarios. In each case, the contribution of BAP to total excess cancer risk was remarkably invariable, for example, ranging from 48% to 52% in one sediment, and 44% to 54% in the other, over four different exposure durations. These results suggest that BAP may be an excellent indexing compound for gauging relative exposure risk across sediments. Other important contributors to total excess cancer risk were benz(a)anthracene and dibenz(a,h)anthracene. Together, these three compounds comprised nearly 90% of total excess cancer risk from all PAHs in every scenario. This integrated RRI approach may enable regulators to more accurately gauge relative risks and make more informed sediment management decisions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00513.x
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Standardized Approach for Developing Probabilistic Exposure Factor Distributions (2004)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 24 (2004), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The effectiveness of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) depends on the quality and relevance of the output from exposure and risk models, which, in turn, depends on the critical inputs to the assessment. These critical inputs are often in the form of probabilistic exposure factor distributions that are derived for the given risk scenario. Deriving probabilistic distributions for model inputs can be time consuming and subjective. The absence of a standard approach for developing these distributions can result in PRAs that are inconsistent and difficult to review by regulatory agencies. We present an approach that reduces subjectivity in the distribution development process without limiting the flexibility needed to prepare relevant PRAs. The approach requires two steps. First, we analyze data pooled at a population scale to (i) identify the most robust demographic descriptors within the population for a given exposure factor, (ii) partition the data into subsets based on these variables, and (iii) construct archetypal distributions for each subpopulation. Second, we sample from these archetypal distributions according to site- or scenario-specific conditions to simulate exposure factor values and use these values to construct the scenario-specific input distribution. The archetypal distributions developed through Step 1 provide a consistent basis for developing scenario-specific distributions so risk assessors will not have to repeatedly collect and analyze raw data for each new assessment. We demonstrate the approach for two commonly used exposure factors—body weight (BW) and exposure duration (ED)—using data that are representative of the U.S. population. For these factors we provide a first set of subpopulation-based archetypal distributions and demonstrate methods for using these distributions to construct relevant scenario-specific probabilistic exposure factor distributions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00518.x
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Risk Management for Leontief-Based Interdependent Systems (2004)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 24 (2004), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: When stricken by a terrorist attack, a war, or a natural disaster, an economic unit or a critical infrastructure may suffer significant loss of productivity. More importantly, due to interdependency or interconnectedness, this initial loss may propagate into other systems and eventually lead to much greater derivative loss. This belongs to what is known as a cascading effect. It is demonstrated in this article that the cascading effect and the derivative loss can be significantly reduced by effective risk management. This is accomplished by deliberately distributing the initial inoperability to other systems so that the total loss (or inoperability) is minimized. The optimal distribution strategy is found by a linear programming technique. The same risk management can also be applied to situations where objectives need to be prioritized. A case study featuring 12 economic sectors illustrates the theory. The result suggests that using the same amount of resources, minimizing risk (inoperability) of infrastructures will generally give rise to highest payoff, whereas overlooking it may result in greatest total loss. The framework developed in this work uses a steady-state approach that applies primarily to managing situations where the attack is catastrophic resulting in very long recovery time.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00520.x
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Information Specificity and Hazard Risk Potential as Moderators of Trust Asymmetry (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Trust in risk managers appears to be an important antecedent of public acceptance for many hazards. However, such trust may be fragile since research suggests that negative performance information has a greater impact than positive performance information (Slovic, 1993). Closer examination of these findings suggests two potential moderators of this valence-related asymmetry—information specificity and hazard risk potential. First, we predicted that the asymmetry would be less evident for low versus high specificity information (risk management policies vs. concrete events). Second, we predicted that it would also be less evident for a low- versus high-risk hazard (pharmaceutical vs. nuclear industry). Study 1 reanalyzed Slovic's original trust asymmetry data for the nuclear industry. In line with Prediction 1, trust asymmetry was less evident for policy than event-related information. Using a new set of items with more clearly defined levels of specificity, Study 2 replicated and extended these findings for the high-risk hazard (nuclear power). In line with Prediction 2, trust asymmetry was even less evident for the low-risk hazard (pharmaceuticals). Positive policies in this industry actually had a greater impact on trust than negative ones, in contrast to previous findings. Results support an information diagnosticity account of earlier findings and suggest that trust in risk managers may be more robust than previously believed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00659.x
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Precautionary Regulation in Europe and the United States: A Quantitative Comparison (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Much attention has been addressed to the question of whether Europe or the United States adopts a more precautionary stance to the regulation of potential environmental, health, and safety risks. Some commentators suggest that Europe is more risk-averse and precautionary, whereas the United States is seen as more risk-taking and optimistic about the prospects for new technology. Others suggest that the United States is more precautionary because its regulatory process is more legalistic and adversarial, while Europe is more lax and corporatist in its regulations. The flip-flop hypothesis claims that the United States was more precautionary than Europe in the 1970s and early 1980s, and that Europe has become more precautionary since then. We examine the levels and trends in regulation of environmental, health, and safety risks since 1970. Unlike previous research, which has studied only a small set of prominent cases selected nonrandomly, we develop a comprehensive list of almost 3,000 risks and code the relative stringency of regulation in Europe and the United States for each of 100 risks randomly selected from that list for each year from 1970 through 2004. Our results suggest that: (a) averaging over risks, there is no significant difference in relative precaution over the period, (b) weakly consistent with the flip-flop hypothesis, there is some evidence of a modest shift toward greater relative precaution of European regulation since about 1990, although (c) there is a diversity of trends across risks, of which the most common is no change in relative precaution (including cases where Europe and the United States are equally precautionary and where Europe or the United States has been consistently more precautionary). The overall finding is of a mixed and diverse pattern of relative transatlantic precaution over the period.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00662.x
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