ALBERT

Notes: European directives require that all veterinary medicines be assessed to determine the harmful effects that their use may have on the environment. Fundamental to this assessment is the calculation of the predicted environmental concentration (PEC), which is dependent on the type of drug, its associated treatment characteristics, and the route by which residues enter the environment. Deterministic models for the calculation of the PEC have previously been presented. In this article, the inclusion of variability and uncertainty within such models is introduced. In particular, models for the calculation of the PEC for residues excreted directly onto pasture by grazing animals are considered and comparison of deterministic and stochastic results suggest that uncertainty and variability cannot be ignored.

Notes: In risk assessment, no observed exposure level (NOAEL) and benchmark dose (BMD) are usually derived either from epidemiological studies in humans or from animal experiments. In many in vitro studies, concentration-effect/response curves have been analyzed using different mathematical models finalized to the identification of EC50. In the present article, we propose a model to fit dose-response curves in vitro. The BMD approach has been used to compare the cell viability (MTT assay) of different rat (C6 and PC12, glial and neuronal, respectively) and human cell lines (D384 and SK-N-MC, glial and neuronal, respectively) after 24-hour exposure to the following neurotoxic substances: manganese chloride (MnCl2), methyl-mercury (Me-Hg), and the enantiomers of styrene oxide (SO). For all rat and human cell lines, the potency of the examined compounds was: MnCl2 〈 S-SO 〈 R-SO 〈 Me-Hg. A preliminary comparison with in vivo toxicity data for these substances gave rise to consistent results. Whereas a reasonable agreement between in vitro and in vivo data has been found for Mn and styrene oxide, a wide scatter of LOAEL has been reported for Me-Hg and these appear to be either much higher or lower than the BMD for the MTT assay we observed invitro.

Notes: This article examines the role of climatic and hydrological variability in assessing the cumulative risk of flood events in Poland over a T-year period. In a broad sense flood-risk estimation combines a frequency analysis of extreme hydrological phenomena with an evaluation of flood-induced damages. The damage from floods depends on the critical values of the river discharges. The probabilistic flood analysis usually includes an estimation of the expected annual probability of the critical discharge Qcr being exceeded and the equivalent long-term risk of it being exceeded over the next T years. If, however, the process is nonstationary, the T-year risk of flood damage may depend importantly on the variation of hydrological processes. As a possible explanation for the variations observed in snowmelt-induced floods in Polish rivers, this article investigates the possible impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on surface air temperature T and precipitation P. The spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients between NAO and T, as well as NAO and P, show very significant differences in the NAO impact on meteorological variables in various parts of Europe. To assess the implications of NAO variations on spring flood discharges, a simple model of Snow Cover Water Equivalent (SCWE) was applied to selected Polish river catchments. The conclusion of this analysis is that the yearly maximum of SCWE values significantly decreases with increasing NAO. This leads to a temporal redistribution of winter and spring runoff. The question of spring flood characteristics being stationary or nonstationary may therefore be linked with stochastic properties of the NAO index time series.

Notes: We examine the opportunities for using catastrophe-linked securities (or equivalent forms of nondebt contingent capital) to reduce the total costs of funding infrastructure projects in emerging economies. Our objective is to elaborate on methods to reduce the necessity for unanticipated (emergency) project funding immediately after a natural disaster. We also place the existing explanations of sovereign-level contingent capital into a catastrophic risk management framework. In doing so, we address the following questions. (1) Why might catastrophe-linked securities be useful to a sovereign nation, over and above their usefulness for insurers and reinsurers? (2) Why are such financial instruments ideally suited for protecting infrastructure projects in emerging economies, under third-party sponsorship, from low-probability, high-consequence events that occur as a result of natural disasters? (3) How can the willingness to pay of a sovereign government in an emerging economy (or its external project sponsor), who values timely completion of infrastructure projects, for such instruments be calculated? To supplement our treatment of these questions, we use a multilayer spreadsheet-based model (in Microsoft Excel format) to calculate the overall cost reductions possible through the judicious use of catastrophe-based financial tools. We also report on numerical comparative statics on the value of contingent-capital financing to avoid project disruption based on varying costs of capital, probability and consequences of disasters, the feasibility of strategies for mid-stage project abandonment, and the timing of capital commitments to the infrastructure investment. We use these results to identify high-priority applications of catastrophe-linked securities so that maximal protection can be realized if the total number of catastrophe instruments is initially limited. The article concludes with potential extensions to our model and opportunities for future research.

Notes: Enabling people to make an informed choice on whether to change consumption behavior is ultimately the objective of any fish consumption advisory. This will occur only if people are aware of the advisory, know and understand the advisory information, and believe the information to be true. Interactive, meaningful communication and the opportunity to participate in the process to develop and review advisories are key to achieving these attributes. A case study was undertaken in a community in Alberta, Canada (where an existing advisory was under consideration for review) to determine public awareness, knowledge, compliance, communication effectiveness, information needs, and desire for involvement related to the advisory. The information obtained from this case study was used to develop 14 guiding principles as a foundation for the incorporation of public participation and risk communication into the process of developing and reviewing fish consumption advisories.

Notes: This article provides a systematic framework for the analysis and improvement of near-miss programs in the chemical process industries. Near-miss programs improve corporate environmental, health, and safety (EHS) performance through the identification and management of near misses. Based on more than 100 interviews at 20 chemical and pharmaceutical facilities, a seven-stage framework has been developed and is presented herein. The framework enables sites to analyze their own near-miss programs, identify weak management links, and implement systemwide improvements.

Notes: Formaldehyde induced squamous-cell carcinomas in the nasal passages of F344 rats in two inhalation bioassays at exposure levels of 6 ppm and above. Increases in rates of cell proliferation were measured by T. M. Monticello and colleagues at exposure levels of 0.7 ppm and above in the same tissues from which tumors arose. A risk assessment for formaldehyde was conducted at the CIIT Centers for Health Research, in collaboration with investigators from Toxicological Excellence in Risk Assessment (TERA) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) in 1999. Two methods for dose-response assessment were used: a full biologically based modeling approach and a statistically oriented analysis by benchmark dose (BMD) method. This article presents the later approach, the purpose of which is to combine BMD and pharmacokinetic modeling to estimate human cancer risks from formaldehyde exposure. BMD analysis was used to identify points of departure (exposure levels) for low-dose extrapolation in rats for both tumor and the cell proliferation endpoints. The benchmark concentrations for induced cell proliferation were lower than for tumors. These concentrations were extrapolated to humans using two mechanistic models. One model used computational fluid dynamics (CFD) alone to determine rates of delivery of inhaled formaldehyde to the nasal lining. The second model combined the CFD method with a pharmacokinetic model to predict tissue dose with formaldehyde-induced DNA-protein cross-links (DPX) as a dose metric. Both extrapolation methods gave similar results, and the predicted cancer risk in humans at low exposure levels was found to be similar to that from a risk assessment conducted by the U.S. EPA in 1991. Use of the mechanistically based extrapolation models lends greater certainty to these risk estimates than previous approaches and also identifies the uncertainty in the measured dose-response relationship for cell proliferation at low exposure levels, the dose-response relationship for DPX in monkeys, and the choice between linear and nonlinear methods of extrapolation as key remaining sources of uncertainty.

Notes: With the growing number and diversity of hazard and risk assessment algorithms, models, databases, and frameworks for chemicals and their applications, risk assessors and managers are challenged to select the appropriate tool for a given need or decision. Some decisions require relatively simple tools to evaluate chemical hazards (e.g., toxicity), such as labeling for safe occupational handling and transport of chemicals. Others require assessment tools that provide relative comparisons among chemical properties, such as selecting the optimum chemical for a particular use among a group of candidates. Still other needs warrant full risk characterization, coupling both hazard and exposure considerations. Examples of these include new chemical evaluations for commercialization, evaluations of existing chemicals for novel uses, and assessments of the adequacy of risk management provisions. Even well-validated tools can be inappropriately applied, with consequences as severe as misguided chemical management, compromised credibility of the tool and its developers and users, and squandered resources. This article describes seven discrete categories of tools based on their information content, function, and the type of outputs produced. It proposes a systematic framework to assist users in selecting hazard and risk assessment tools for given applications. This analysis illustrates the importance of careful selection of assessment tools to achieve responsible chemical assessment communication and sound risk management.

Notes: Climate change may well lead to an increased risk of river floods in the Netherlands. However, the impacts of changes in water management on river floods are larger, either enhancing or reducing flood risks. Therefore, the abilities of water-management authorities to learn that climate and river flows are changing, and to recognize and act upon the implications, are of crucial importance. At the same time, water-management authorities respond to other trends, such as the democratization of decision making, which alter their ability to react to climate change. These complex interactions are illustrated with changes in river flood risk management for the Rhine and the Meuse in the Netherlands over the last 50 years. A scenario study is used to seek insight into the question of whether current water-management institutions and their likely successors are capable of dealing with plausible future flood risks. The scenarios show that new and major infrastructure is needed to keep flood risks at their current level. Such a structural solution to future flood risks is feasible, but requires considerable political will and institutional reform, both for planning and implementation. It is unlikely that reform will be fast enough or the will strong enough.