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  • Artikel  (1.828)
  • Artikel: DFG Deutsche Nationallizenzen  (1.828)
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  • Blackwell Publishers Ltd.  (162)
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  • Artikel  (1.828)
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  • 1
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Commentary on the Conference on Decision-Making Under Conditions of Uncertainty for Rare Diseases (2002)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 108 Cowley Road , Oxford OX4 1JF , UK . : Blackwell Publishing
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1539-6924.00271
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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    Artikel (Nationallizenzen)
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  • 2
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Influence of Safety Measures on the Risks of Transporting Dangerous Goods Through Road Tunnels (2002)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 108 Cowley Road , Oxford OX4 1JF , UK . : Blackwell Publishing
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models are used to estimate the risks of transporting dangerous goods and to assess the merits of introducing alternative risk reduction measures for different transportation scenarios and assumptions. A comprehensive QRA model recently was developed in Europe for application to road tunnels. This model can assess the merits of a limited number of “native safety measures.” In this article, we introduce a procedure for extending its scope to include the treatment of a number of important “nonnative safety measures” of interest to tunnel operators and decisionmakers. Nonnative safety measures were not included in the original model specification. The suggested procedure makes use of expert judgment and Monte Carlo simulation methods to model uncertainty in the revised risk estimates. The results of a case study application are presented that involve the risks of transporting a given volume of flammable liquid through a 10-km road tunnel.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1539-6924.00273
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    An Empirical Test of the Relative Validity of Expert and Lay Judgments of Risk (2002)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 108 Cowley Road , Oxford OX4 1JF , UK . : Blackwell Publishing
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: This article investigates how accurately experts (underwriters) and lay persons (university students) judge the risks posed by life-threatening events. Only one prior study (Slovic, Fischhoff, & Lichtenstein, 1985) has previously investigated the veracity of expert versus lay judgments of the magnitude of risk. In that study, a heterogeneous grouping of 15 experts was found to judge, using marginal estimations, a variety of risks as closer to the true annual frequencies of death than convenience samples of the lay population. In this study, we use a larger, homogenous sample of experts performing an ecologically valid task. We also ask our respondents to assess frequencies and relative frequencies directly, rather than ask for a “risk” estimate—a response mode subject to possible qualitative attributions—as was done in the Slovic et al. study. Although we find that the experts outperformed lay persons on a number of measures, the differences are small, and both groups showed similar global biases in terms of: (1) overestimating the likelihood of dying from a condition (marginal probability) and of dying from a condition given that it happens to you (conditional probability), and (2) underestimating the ratios of marginal and conditional likelihoods between pairs of potentially lethal events. In spite of these scaling problems, both groups showed quite good performance in ordering the lethal events in terms of marginal and conditional likelihoods. We discuss the nature of expertise using a framework developed by Bolger and Wright (1994), and consider whether the commonsense assumption of the superiority of expert risk assessors in making magnitude judgments of risk is, in fact, sensible.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1539-6924.00276
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    A Risk Analysis for Airborne Pathogens with Low Infectious Doses: Application to Respirator Selection Against Coccidioides immitis Spores (2002)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 108 Cowley Road , Oxford OX4 1JF , UK . : Blackwell Publishing
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Probability models incorporating a deterministic versus stochastic infectious dose are described for estimating infection risk due to airborne pathogens that infect at low doses. Such pathogens can be occupational hazards or candidate agents for bioterrorism. Inputs include parameters for the infectious dose model, distribution parameters for ambient pathogen concentrations, the breathing rate, the duration of an exposure period, the anticipated number of exposure periods, and, if a respirator device is used, distribution parameters for respirator penetration values. Application of the models is illustrated with a hypothetical scenario involving exposure to Coccidioides immitis, a fungus present in soil in areas of the southwestern United States. Inhaling C. immitis spores causes a respiratory tract infection and is a recognized occupational hazard in jobs involving soil dust exposure in endemic areas. An uncertainty analysis is applied to risk estimation in the context of selecting respiratory protection with a desired degree of efficacy.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1539-6924.00279
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 5
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Exposure Misclassification and Threshold Concentrations in Time Series Analyses of Air Pollution Health Effects (2002)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 108 Cowley Road , Oxford OX4 1JF , UK . : Blackwell Publishing
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Linear, no-threshold relationships are typically reported for time series studies of air pollution and mortality. Since regulatory standards and economic valuations typically assume some threshold level, we evaluated the fundamental question of the impact of exposure misclassification on the persistence of underlying personal-level thresholds when personal data are aggregated to the population level in the assessment of exposure-response relationships. As an example, we measured personal exposures to two particle metrics, PM2.5 and sulfate (SO42−), for a sample of lung disease patients and compared these with exposures estimated from ambient measurements. Previous work has shown that ambient:personal correlations for PM2.5 are much lower than for SO42−, suggesting that ambient PM2.5 measurements misclassify exposures to PM2.5. We then developed a method by which the measured:estimated exposure relationships for these patients were used to simulate personal exposures for a larger population and then to estimate individual-level mortality risks under different threshold assumptions. These individual risks were combined to obtain the population risk of death, thereby exhibiting the prominence (and the value) of the threshold in the relationship between risk and estimated exposure. Our results indicated that for poorly classified exposures (PM2.5 in this example) population-level thresholds were apparent at lower ambient concentrations than specified common personal thresholds, while for well-classified exposures (e.g., SO42−), the apparent thresholds were similar to these underlying personal thresholds. These results demonstrate that surrogate metrics that are not highly correlated with personal exposures obscure the presence of thresholds in epidemiological studies of larger populations, while exposure indicators that are highly correlated with personal exposures can accurately reflect underlying personal thresholds.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1539-6924.00282
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 6
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Letter to the Editor from Cicmanec (2002)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 108 Cowley Road , Oxford OX4 1JF , UK . : Blackwell Publishing
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1539-6924.00268
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 7
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    A New Approach to Risk Evaluation and Management: Risk-Based, Precaution-Based, and Discourse-Based Strategies1 (2002)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 108 Cowley Road , Oxford OX4 1JF , UK . : Blackwell Publishing
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1539-6924.00274
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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    Artikel (Nationallizenzen)
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  • 8
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Stakeholder Attitudes Toward the Risks and Benefits of Agricultural Biotechnology in Developing Countries: A Comparison Between Mexico and the Philippines (2002)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 108 Cowley Road , Oxford OX4 1JF , UK . : Blackwell Publishing
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Public perceptions and political debates regarding the risks and benefits of agricultural biotechnology are well documented in industrialized countries. Yet, hardly any surveys have been conducted in developing countries. The following study aims to contribute to a better understanding of stakeholder attitudes toward agricultural biotechnology in developing countries. For this purpose, stakeholder representatives in the public debates in Mexico and the Philippines were asked to complete two nearly identical questionnaires on the risks and benefits of agricultural biotechnology. A comparison of stakeholder attitudes in the Philippines and Mexico is interesting because it shows how the different political systems, cultural and ecological backgrounds, and the regional context of food and agriculture influence perceptions. In general, the results of the surveys indicate that the participants in both countries consider genetic engineering to be an important tool to address agricultural, nutritional, and environmental problems, and they do not regard transgenic foods as risky for consumers. However, they are concerned about the potential impact of such transgenic crops on their countries' rich biological diversity and do not believe that national biosafety guidelines will be implemented properly. Although the surveys show that stakeholder attitudes in the Philippines and Mexico are quite similar, they also highlight significant differences in perception often related to cultural and political aspects.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1539-6924.00277
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 9
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Uncertainty in Measurements of Dermal Absorption of Pesticides (2002)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 108 Cowley Road , Oxford OX4 1JF , UK . : Blackwell Publishing
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Dermal absorption experiments form an important component in the assessment of risk from exposure to pesticides and other substances. Much dermal absorption data is gathered in rat experiments carried out using a certain standard protocol. Uncertainties in these data arise from many sources and can be quite large. For example, measurements of the systemic absorption of hexaconazole differed by more than an order of magnitude within a single experiment. Two diniconazole studies produced quite different results, due to minor differences in protocol and in chemical formulation. Limits of detection can also prevent accurate measurement when the amounts absorbed are small. These examples illustrate the need for measuring and reporting uncertainties in estimates that are based on these data. The most direct way to estimate uncertainty is to compute the sample standard deviations of replicate measurements. By pooling these estimates across dose and duration groups for which they are similar, the number of degrees of freedom is increased, and more precise confidence intervals can be obtained. In particular, the ratio of upper to lower 95% confidence limits was reduced by as much as ten-fold for hexaconazole, seven-fold for uniconazole, and nearly four-fold for propiconazole.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1539-6924.00281
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 10
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks Cost-Efficient Methods (2002)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 108 Cowley Road , Oxford OX4 1JF , UK . : Blackwell Publishing
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Quelle: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1539-6924.00284_1
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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