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  • Articles  (8,115)
  • Articles: DFG German National Licenses  (8,115)
  • Springer  (8,115)
  • 2020-2024
  • 1985-1989  (8,115)
  • 1980-1984
  • 1988  (8,115)
  • Physics  (7,870)
  • Geography  (340)
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  • Articles  (8,115)
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Keywords
Publisher
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  • 2020-2024
  • 1985-1989  (8,115)
  • 1980-1984
Year
Topic
  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Comparative analysis of three recursive real-time river flow forecasting models: deterministic, stochastic, and coupled deterministic-stochastic (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 17-33 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: River flow forecasting ; discrete linear cascade model ; ARMAX ; coupled models ; Kalman filtering ; Danube
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The objective of the paper is to compare three recursive linear state space models used to forecast river flow. The three models are as follows: (i) Purely deterministic discrete linear cascade model (DLCM); (ii) Purely stochastic autoregressive moving average (ARMAX) time series model; and (iii) Coupled deterministic (DLCM) — stochastic (ARMA) model. Description of DLCM is given shortly. The state space formulation of the ARMAX model enables the recursive estimation of random walk parameters and the forecast of flows by linear Kalman filtering. The correlated error sequence of DLCM is described by an ARMA model. The DLCM and ARMA models are put together in a coupled deterministic-stochastic model. The recursive conditional forecasting of the augmented state vector is performed by the linear Kalman-filter. The conditional output forecast is given by linear projection of thea priori state vector. Numerical investigations on River Danube data lead to the conclusion that the coupled deterministic-stochastic model is the most efficient forecasting model of all the three recursive techniques compared.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544191
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Estimation of autocorrelation in a binary time series (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 61-72 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Binary data ; censored observations ; autocorrelations ; acid rain
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The properties of the well known estimator of the transition probabilities in a binary time series are investigated. A formula for the variance is obtained, which generally involves a double integral. However, in the case when the binary series is obtained by hard clipping of an AR(1) process, a good and fairly simple approximation is derived. In the MA(1) or MA(2) case exact formulae for the variance is given. In the appendix an excellent approximation to the fourth order cumulant of a clipped AR(1) process is derived, which may be of interest in other applications as well.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544195
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The historically adjusted range and the historically rescaled adjusted range (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 175-188 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Reservoir storage ; range ; adjusted range
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract It was remarked by Hurst in 1951 that the adjusted range gives the size of the smallest reservoir capable of providing a constant discharge equal to the mean inflow. Since that time this range and its rescaled modification, the Hurst range, have been widely discussed, not however primarily with a view to applying them to reservoir design problems, but rather on account of their possible relevance to the simulation of geophysical time series. Acknowledging the well-known conceptual weaknesses of adjusted ranges and the theoretical difficulties that inhibit their direct utilisation in the design and operation of real reservoirs, the authors argue that the interest displayed on ranges during the past few decades justifies the effort of eliminating one in particular of these weakness, namely their non-implementability as operating policies, a consequence of the fact that they can only be retrospectively evaluated. The paper proposes modifications in which the unknowable mean and standard deviation of future samples are replaced by the known mean and sample standard deviation of historical data, leading to the historically adjusted range and the historically rescaled and adjusted range. The latter is produced as an implementable approximation to Hurst's (1951) solution to the optimal reservoir problem. The expected values of the new ranges are evaluated and numerically tabulated.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01550840
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A geostatistical approach for areal rainfall statistics assessment (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 245-261 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Geostatistics ; areal rainfall distribution ; areal reduction factor ; Gumbel distribution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Areal rainfall statistics are more relevant in flood hydrology and water resources management than point rainfall statistics when it comes to help designing dams or hydraulic structures. This paper presents a geostatistically based method to derive the areal statistics from point statistics. Assuming that the distribution models of point rainfall and areal belong to the same class of models and that the rainfall process is stationary, it is shown how the parameters of the areal distribution model can directly be computed from the parameters of the point distribution models in case of a non stationary process, an approximation is derived that yielded good results when applied to a mountainous region in Southern France. The method also allows the computation of the areal reduction factors in a very general form.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544039
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Modeling long term lake variations by physically based stochastic dynamic models (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 303-315 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Physically based stochastic models ; stochastic dynamic models ; statistical predictability ; internannual variability ; ARMA models ; water level variations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Several physically based stochastic dynamic models (SDM) are described including year-to-year variations of water volume in terminal and non-terminal lakes, streamflow of lake-fed rivers, and salinity of an inland sea (the Sea of Azov). All of these models are based upon the SDM of water volume of terminal lakes developed by Kritzky and Menkel in 1946 in co-operation with Kolomogorov. Explicit formulae are derived for second order statistical moments of the output processes, including variance, correlation function, spectra, etc., under the assumption that the forcing functions from stationary random sequences. The least-squares prediction problem is solved for both stationary and non-stationary cases. Some of the processes are shown to possess high statistical predictability. Actual predictions are compared with independent observations. Problems for further study are stated.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544043
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    On the method of maximum likelihood estimation for the log-Pearson type 3 distribution (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 155-160 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01543458
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The generalized method of moments as applied to the generalized gamma distribution (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 161-174 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Floods ; estimation ; quantiles ; generalized gamma ; generalized moments ; standard error
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The generalized gamma (GG) distribution has a density function that can take on many possible forms commonly encountered in hydrologic applications. This fact has led many authors to study the properties of the distribution and to propose various estimation techniques (method of moments, mixed moments, maximum likelihood etc.). We discuss some of the most important properties of this flexible distribution and present a flexible method of parameter estimation, called the “generalized method of moments” (GMM) which combines any three moments of the GG distribution. The main advantage of this general method is that it has many of the previously proposed methods of estimation as special cases. We also give a general formula for the variance of theT-year eventX T obtained by the GMM along with a general formula for the parameter estimates and also for the covariances and correlation coefficients between any pair of such estimates. By applying the GMM and carefully choosing the order of the moments that are used in the estimation one can significantly reduce the variance ofT-year events for the range of return periods that are of interest.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01550839
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Evaluation of flow probabilities in run-off detention ponds (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 239-244 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01550844
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Unbiased estimation of flood risk with the GEV distribution (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 201-212 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Flood risk ; flood frequency analysis ; generalised extreme value distributions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Conventional flood frequency analysis is concerned with providing an unbiased estimate of the magnitude of the design flow exceeded with the probabilityp, but sampling uncertainties imply that such estimates will, on average, be exceeded more frequently. An alternative approach is therefore, to derive an estimator which gives an unbiased estimate of flow risk: the difference between the two magnitudes reflects uncertainties in parameter estimation. An empirical procedure has been developed to estimate the mean true exceedance probabilities of conventional estimates made using a GEV distribution fitted by probability weighted moments, and adjustment factors have been determined to enable the estimation of flood magnitudes exceeded with, on average, the desired probability.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01550842
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Analytical extensions on a stochastic description of Cyclonic precipitation fields in time and space (1988)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 263-279 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Cyclonic rain fields ; cyclone center behavior ; stochastic model
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Earlier the authors have developed a stochastic geometric model for extratropical cyclonic precipitation fields at synoptic and meso scales as they are typically observed by weather radars over the mainland U S A (see Kavvas and Puri 1983; Kavvas et al. 1987). Here the earlier mathematical development of the model is further extended by incorporating the stochastic description of cyclone center births and their evolutions over U S A into the model.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01544040
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