ALBERT

Notes: Abstract The ethical and moral behavior of Homo sapiens is no longer the exclusive domain of religion and philosophy because we recognize that such behavior affects the reproductive success of individuals within the species. We are a social species and therefore our survival is influenced by our capacity for cooperation and our willingness to take risks for kin. Emotions, some of which are found in other species, help to mediate our altruistic behavior. The reproductive benefits of helping kin, especially offspring, are readily seen. Helping non-kin can be beneficial if individuals can differentiate between ‘reciprocators’ and ‘non-reciprocators’ and direct altruistic behavior toward reciprocators. Also, if third parties are favorably impressed by observing altruistic behavior, the rewards need not come from the recipient of the altruistic behavior.

Notes: Abstract This paper describes a novel knowledge-based approachfor helping workflow process designers andparticipants better manage the exceptions (deviationsfrom an ideal collaborative work process caused byerrors, failures, resource or requirements changesetc.) that can occur during the enactment of aworkflow. This approach is based on exploiting ageneric and reusable body of knowledge concerning whatkinds of exceptions can occur in collaborative workprocesses, and how these exceptions can handled(detected, diagnosed and resolved). This work buildsupon previous efforts from the MIT Process Handbookproject and from research on conflict management incollaborative design.

Notes: Abstract Genetic variation and genotype × environment interactions for important agronomic characters were estimated for eleven Norwegian populations of white clover (Trifolium repens L.), originating from between 58°52′N and 69°30′N latitude, and from altitudes of 10 to 450 m a.s.l. The populations were evaluated in monoculture clonal field plots for two years at two locations in Norway. The medium-leaved Danish cultivar Milkanova was also included in the experiment as a standard market cultivar. Considerable variation between populations was observed for winter survival, spring growth, morphological characteristics, dry matter yield, general performance, earliness and seed yield. Winter survival, measured as plant cover after two years, was significantly different at the two locations. All the populations had sufficient winter survival at the southern, continental highland site (61°07′N).At the northern coastal location (69°30′N),where the winter climate is unstable with physical stresses such as frost, ice-encasement and water-logging frequently occurring, only the northernmost, coastal populations showed sufficient winter survival. Highly significant interactions were found between populations and locations, and between populations and years for all characters measured at both locations and in both years, respectively. Interaction effects between populations, locations and years were significant only for leaflet length. The largest leaf lamina's were observed in the most southern populations. However, genotypes possessing relatively long leaflets were also found in the northernmost populations, although at low frequencies. In general, the populations originating from the northernmost locations had lower biomass production, and were smaller-leaved, more prostrate and exhibited shorter internodes and stolons compared to the populations from South and Middle Norway. These populations also initiated inflorescences earliest, and were among the lowest seed yielding populations. Otherwise, no clear clinal variation in growth characteristics was observed which could be related to the latitude or altitude of origin of the populations.

Notes: Abstract Wild emmer wheat, Triticum dicoccoides, grows naturally in several habitats in northern Israel. The assumption that a genotype is better adapted to the `native' soil from which it was collected than to other soils, was tested. Each of nine T. dicoccoides accessions from nine different habitats and three wheat cultivars was sown in soils taken from all habitats, and grown in a greenhouse over 3 years. To enhance the biological nutrition absorption forces from the soil, three common wheat cultivars were added to the wild genotypes. No interaction in grain yield between wild wheat genotype and soil type was found within experiments. Soil type was the main factor that affected development and yield. Seed nutrient ability (SNA) of each soil was defined as the mineral element content in the seeds, averaged over all genotypes. Multiple regression analysis revealed diversity between the SNA related to growth and yield of the genotypes. Total seed yield per plant of each accession was related to several SNAs, and mainly to S and K, R2 = 0.5–0.85. The spikelet number per spike was determined by N and Na in five accessions and by Ca in the other four (R2 = 0.39–0.93).Heading date was affected mainly by the genotype, and the soil effect exhibited Fe and P dependence. A genotype-habitat adaptation exhibited by yield components was related to yield quality rather than to yield quantity. When a mineral nutrient is deficient in a natural soil, natural selection leads to establishment of plants that store a higher concentration of that nutrient in the seed, for the benefit of the succeeding generation.

Notes: Abstract Growth habit, heading date and Vrn genotypewere examined for wheat landraces cultivated in China,Korea and Japan, to study their ecogeographicaldifferentiation in east Asia. Spring type landracesaccounted for 43.6% of the whole, and the frequencyvaried between the localities, being closely relatedto the degree of winter coldness. Spring typelandraces mainly adapted to north and south Chinawhere average January temperature is under –7 °Cand over 4 °C, respectively. On the contrary,winter type adapted to areas of average Januarytemperature from –7 °C to 4 °C. As toheading date, significant difference was not observedbetween spring and winter type landraces but betweenlocalities, and those cultivated in north China weresignificantly later in heading. It is thereforeindicated that spring type mainly adapts to areaswhere wheat is sown in spring to avoid frost injury,and where winter temperature is not low enough tovernalize winter type wheat. Genetic analysis forspring type landraces showed that the relativefrequency of four Vrn genes was different witheach other. Vrn3 was most widely and frequentlyfound among the four genes, followed by Vrn1 andVrn2. Only seven landraces proved to be thecarrier of Vrn4. The frequency was alsodifferent between localities. Genotype with Vrn1plus other dominant gene(s) adapted to spring sowingto avoid severely cold winter in north China, whilegenotype with only Vrn3 adapted to winter sowingin south China and southwest Japan. It is thereforeconcluded that at least three ecotypes, differing ingrowth habit and Vrn genotype, areallopatrically distributed in east Asia, as a resultof adaptation to winter coldness in each locality.

Notes: Abstract Following a legume collection mission to south-west Turkey in 1996, five species of Trifolium were analysed for genetic variation within and between species in eleven morphological and flowering characters. The five species included two outcrossing species, T. michelianum and T. resupinatum, and three inbreeding species, T. clypeatum, T. glomeratum and T. tomentosum. The genetic diversity found was related to climate and edaphic factors. All five species showed significant amounts of genetic differentiation between sites and the species could be separated morphologically by principal components analysis and cluster analysis. The most significant source of genetic variation was found to be related to geographical distribution with those species which were widely distributed across south-west Turkey exhibiting much greater amounts of genetic variation between sites, than those which had a narrow distribution. The breeding system was found to be less important, but only the morphology of the outbreeding species showed any environmental clines in relation to climate. A multiple regression analysis was computed to estimate the effect of growing season on the days to flowering of each of the species.

Notes: Abstract It is indicated that up to the year 2030, the annual average temperatures in China will increase by 0.88 to 1.2°C, with increments in the south less than in the north. Annual average precipitation would raise slightly, but the increment could be 4% in northeastern China. The increment of annual mean runoff could rise over 6% in the northeastern area, and decrease in the other regions 1.4 to 10.5%. The increased water shortage due to climate change could achieve 160 to 5090 million m3 in some areas of China. Financial loss due to the lack of water could reach 1300 million yuan, and up to 4400 million yuan in serious drought years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area.

Notes: Abstract Adaptation in response to anthropogenic climate change seeks to maintain viability by maximising benefits and minimising losses. It is necessary because some climatic change is now inevitable, despite the international focus on mitigation measures. Indeed, the measures agreed at Kyoto would by themselves result in only a small reduction in the climate changes to be expected over the next century. Discussion of the expected changes and possible impacts leads to the following conclusions regarding climate change scenarios in relation to impacts and adaptation: • Climate change in the foreseeable future will not be some new stable "equilibrium" climate, but rather an ongoing "transient" process; • Climate change predictions relevant to impacts on most sectors and ecosystems are still highly uncertain; • There is a need for a greater focus on developing countries and tropical regions, and on relevant key variables, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events; • The focus should shift from single predictions, or extreme ranges of uncertainty, to risk assessment; • Thresholds critical to impacted sectors and ecosystems should be identified, and expressed as functions of climatic variables; • Planned adaptations will be necessary to cope with multiple stresses, including those due to non-climatic changes; • A major task of adaptation science is to identify the limits of adaptation, i.e., to identify "dangerous levels of greenhouse gases" beyond which adaptation becomes impractical or prohibitively expensive.

Notes: Abstract If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interactions and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change.

Notes: Abstract Global climate change is likely to have a range of consequences for human health as a result of disturbance or weakening of the biosphere's natural or human-managed life support systems. The full range of potential human health impacts of global climate change is diverse and would be distributed differentially spatially and over time. Changes in the mortality toll of heatwaves and changes in the distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases may occur early. The public health consequences of sea level rise and of regional changes in agricultural productivity may not occur (or become apparent) for several decades. Vulnerability is a measure of both sensitivity to climate change and the ability to adapt in anticipation of, or in response to, its impacts. The basic modes of adaptation to climate-induced health hazards are biological, behavioural and social. Adaptation can be undertaken at the individual, community and whole-population levels. Adaptive strategies should not introduce new health hazards. Enhancement of the acknowledged public health infrastructure and intervention programmes is essential to reduce vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. In the longer-term, fundamental improvements in the social and material conditions of life and in the reduction of inequalities within and between populations are required for sustained reduction in vulnerability to environmental health hazards.

Notes: Abstract A mechanism has been established to improve integration of international climate-related programmes. Known as the Climate Agenda it outlines a programme, that in a cost-effective way, responds to national obligations to respond to international agreements as well as their national needs for social and economic development. The paper briefly describes the Climate Agenda and the incorporation within it of studies of climate impact assessments and response strategies to reduce vulnerability. The need for increased emphasis on climate impact assessment and for the development of effective adaptation measures is emphasised following the elaboration of a Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNEP's efforts to identify national programmes contributing to the Climate Agenda are described. The response from developing countries has, however, been very disappointing, even from countries where we know work is ongoing through funding by GEF or US Country Studies Program and other bilateral programmes. Initial compilation of information available so far shows that many developed countries are putting a lot into the area of impact assessment of not just climate change, but also climate variability. There remain some research gaps, especially in the area of assessment of climate impacts on ecosystems, hydrological systems, etc. Considerable efforts are presently being directed at reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and in the case of developing countries, most efforts are being directed towards completing national communications and providing baseline data for future studies. The paper refers to early activities by UNEP in cooperation with other international organizations to undertake integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on important socio-economic sectors and the later incorporation of lessons learned into the IPCC Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change. Later sections outline the development of a handbook on methods for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies as a practical approach to national assessments and the development of appropriate and cost-effective response to climate change. The initiation of a GEF-funded project to apply the methods contained in the handbook and improve the results based on national studies is also described for both developed and developing countries. Working in collaboration with a team of international experts under the coordination of the Institute of Environmental Studies at Vrije University (Amsterdam), the goal of this ongoing project is to develop a valuable methodological tool that Parties to the UNFCCC may apply to develop national climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Development of these guidelines was linked to a series of country studies in Antigua and Barbuda, Estonia, Cameroon and Pakistan funded under a UNEP/GEF project. The application of the first version of the UNEP Handbook by national study teams in these four countries is making valuable technical and practical contributions and will ensure that the next version of the Handbook will be a more useful tool for experts in developing countries undertaking similar studies in the future. The methods contained in the Handbook are also the basis for similar assessments funded under bilateral development programmes in other countries. These and similar studies elsewhere are coordinated with the UNEP programme and will eventually aim to create reliable and comparable assessments, a compatible set of tools for such purpose and the identification of realistic adaptation options for incorporation into national planning for adapting to climate change. The paper also addresses how climate impact assessment and response strategies are undertaken as part of national enabling activities carried out in co-operation with UNEP.

Notes: Abstract Many developing countries, especially in Africa, contribute only very small amounts to the world total of greenhouse gas emissions. For them, the reduction of such emissions is not a priority, and the more important issue is to find ways to reduce their vulnerability to the projected climate change which is being imposed upon them largely as a result of emissions from developed countries. This priority does not accord with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reports upon studies in Uganda designed to help in the development of a national adaptation strategy, and addresses the need to reconcile such a strategy with the global priority accorded to mitigation and with national economic development priorities. Some features of a national climate change adaptation strategy are identified and questions are raised about the need for an international regime to facilitate and support adaptation.

Notes: Abstract Climate change impacts on African human settlements arise from a number of climate change-related causes, notably sea level changes, impacts on water resources, extreme weather events, food security, increased health risks from vector home diseases, and temperature-related morbidity in urban environments. Some coastlines and river deltas of Africa have densely populated low-lying areas, which would be affected by a rise in sea level. Other coastal settlements will be subjected to increased coastal erosion. Recent flooding in East Africa highlighted the vulnerability of flood plain settlements and the need to develop adaptive strategies for extreme weather events management and mitigation. In the semi arid and arid zones many settlements are associated with inland drainage water sources. Increases in drought will enhance water supply related vulnerabilities. Inter-basin and international water transfers raise the need for adequate legal frameworks that ensure equity among participating nations. Similarly, water supply and irrigation reservoirs in seasonal river catchments might fail, leading to poor sanitation in urban areas as well as food shortage. Hydroelectric power generation could be restricted in drought periods, and where it is a major contributor to the energy budget, reduced power generation could lead to a multiplicity of other impacts. States are advised to develop other sources of renewable energy. Temperature changes will lead to altered distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, making settlements currently free of vector borne diseases vulnerable. Rapid breeding of the housefly could create a menace associated with enteric disorders, especially in conditions of poor sanitation. The dry savannahs of Africa are projected as possible future food deficit areas. Recurrent crop failures would lead to transmigration into urban areas. Pastoralists are likely to undertake more trans-boundary migrations and probably come into conflict with settled communities. Adaptive measures will involve methods of coastal defences (where applicable), a critical review of the energy sector, both regionally and nationally, a rigorous adherence to city hygiene procedures, an informed agricultural industry that is capable of adapting to changing climate in terms of cropping strategies, and innovations in environment design to maximise human comfort at minimum energy expenditure. In the savannah and arid areas water resource management systems will be needed to optimise water resource use and interstate co-operation where such resources are shared. Climate change issues discussed here raise the need for state support for more research and education in impacts of climate change on human settlements in Africa.

Notes: Abstract The ground‐zero premise (so to speak) of the biological sciences is that survival and reproduction is the basic, continuing, inescapable problem for all living organisms; life is at bottom a ‘survival enterprise’. It follows that survival is the ‘paradigmatic problem’ for human societies as well; it is a prerequisite for any other, more exalted objectives. Although the term ‘adaptation’ is also familiar to social scientists, until recently it has been used only selectively, and often very imprecisely. Here a more rigorous and systematic approach to the concept of adaptation is proposed in terms of ‘basic needs’. The concept of basic human needs has a venerable history – tracing back at least to Plato and Aristotle. Yet the development of a formal theory of basic needs has lagged far behind. The reason is that the concept of objective, measurable needs is inconsistent with the theoretical assumptions that have dominated economic and social theory for most of this century, namely, ‘value‐relativism’ and ‘cultural determinism’. Nevertheless, there have been a number of efforts over the past 30 years to develop more universalistic criteria for basic needs, both for use in monitoring social well‐being (‘social indicators’) and for public policy formulation. Here I will advance a strictly biological approach to perationalizing the concept of basic needs. It is argued that much of our economic and social life (and the motivations behind our revealed preferences and subjective utility assessments), not to mention the actions of modern governments, are either directly or indirectly related to the meeting of our basic survival needs. Furthermore, these needs can be specified to a first approximation and supported empirically to varying degrees, with the obvious caveat that there are major individual and contextual variations in their application. Equally important, complex human societies generate an array of ‘instrumental needs’ which, as the term implies, serve as intermediaries between our primary needs and the specific economic, cultural and political contexts within which these needs must be satisfied. An explicit framework of ‘Survival Indicators’, including a profile of ‘Personal Fitness’ and an aggregate index of ‘Population Fitness’, is briefly elucidated. Finally, it is suggested that a basic needs paradigm could provide an analytical tool (a ‘bio‐logic’) for examining more closely the relationship between our social, economic and political behaviors and institutions and their survival consequences, as well as providing a predictive tool of some value.