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  • Other Sources  (879)
  • Articles (OceanRep)  (879)
  • Copernicus Publications (EGU)  (336)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2023-01-04
    Description: Microplastic particles are ubiquitous in the environment, from the air we breathe to the food we eat. The key question with respect to these particles is to what extent they cause risks for the environment and human health. There is no risk assessment framework that takes into account the multidimensionality of microplastic particles against the background of numerous natural particles, which together encompass an infinite combination of sizes, shapes, densities and chemical signatures. We review the current tenets in defining microplastic characteristics and effects, emphasizing advances in the analysis of the diversity of microplastic particles. We summarize the unique characteristics of microplastic compared with those of other environmental particles, the main mechanisms of microplastic particle effects and the relevant dose metrics for these effects. To characterize risks consistently, we propose how exposure and effect thresholds can be aligned and quantified using probability density functions describing microplastic particle diversity.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2023-01-04
    Description: Glacial isostatic adjustment is largely governed by the rheological properties of the Earth's mantle. Large mass redistributions in the ocean–cryosphere system and the subsequent response of the viscoelastic Earth have led to dramatic sea level changes in the past. This process is ongoing, and in order to understand and predict current and future sea level changes, the knowledge of mantle properties such as viscosity is essential. In this study, we present a method to obtain estimates of mantle viscosities by the assimilation of relative sea level rates of change into a viscoelastic model of the lithosphere and mantle. We set up a particle filter with probabilistic resampling. In an identical twin experiment, we show that mantle viscosities can be recovered in a glacial isostatic adjustment model of a simple three-layer Earth structure consisting of an elastic lithosphere and two mantle layers of different viscosity. We investigate the ensemble behaviour on different parameters in the following three set-ups: (1) global observations data set since last glacial maximum with different ensemble initialisations and observation uncertainties, (2) regional observations from Fennoscandia or Laurentide/Greenland only, and (3) limiting the observation period to 10 ka until the present. We show that the recovery is successful in all cases if the target parameter values are properly sampled by the initial ensemble probability distribution. This even includes cases in which the target viscosity values are located far in the tail of the initial ensemble probability distribution. Experiments show that the method is successful if enough near-field observations are available. This makes it work best for a period after substantial deglaciation until the present when the number of sea level indicators is relatively high.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2023-01-04
    Description: Based on the numerical weather prediction model COSMO of Germany's national meteorological service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD), regional reanalysis datasets have been developed with grid spacing of up to 2 km. This development started as a fundamental research activity within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ) at the University of Bonn and the University of Cologne. Today, COSMO reanalyses are an established product of the DWD and have been widely used in applications on European and national German level. Successful applications of COSMO reanalyses include renewable energy assessments as well as meteorological risk estimates. The COSMO reanalysis datasets are now publicly available and provide spatio-temporal consistent data of atmospheric parameters covering both near-surface conditions and vertical profiles. This article reviews the status of the COSMO reanalyses, including evaluation results and applications. In many studies, evaluation of the COSMO reanalyses point to an overall good quality and often an added value compared to different contemporary global reanalysis datasets. We further outline current plans for the further development and application of regional reanalyses in the HErZ research group Cologne/Bonn in collaboration with the DWD.
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2023-01-04
    Description: The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W m−2, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W m−2 from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W m−2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W m−2 from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W m−2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m−2. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W m−2 is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W m−2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2023-01-04
    Description: We present the result of the third Marine Ice Sheet Intercomparison project, MISMIP+. MISMIP+ is intended to be a test of ice flow models which include fast sliding marine ice streams and floating ice shelves and in particular a treatment of viscous stress that is sufficient for buttressing, where upstream ice flow is restrained by a downstream ice shelf. A set of idealized experiments test the models in circumstances where buttressing contributes to a stable steady state, and where a reduction in that buttressing causes ice stream acceleration, thinning, and grounding line retreat. We find that the most important distinction between models in this particular type of simulation is in the treatment of sliding at the bed, with other distinctions – notably the difference between the simpler and more complete treatments of englacial stress, but also the differences between numerical methods – taking a secondary role.
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2023-01-04
    Description: Varved lake sediments provide long climatic records with high temporal resolution and low associated age uncertainty. Robust and detailed comparison of well-dated and annually laminated sediment records is crucial for reconstructing abrupt and regionally time-transgressive changes as well as validation of spatial and temporal trajectories of past climatic changes. The VARved sediments DAtabase (VARDA) presented here is the first data compilation for varve chronologies and associated palaeoclimatic proxy records. The current version 1.0 allows detailed comparison of published varve records from 95 lakes. VARDA is freely accessible and was created to assess outputs from climate models with high-resolution terrestrial palaeoclimatic proxies. VARDA additionally provides a technical environment that enables to explore the database of varved lake sediments using a connected data-model and can generate a state-of-the-art graphic representation of multi-site comparison. This allows to reassess existing chronologies and tephra events to synchronize and compare even distant varved lake records. Furthermore, the present version of VARDA permits to explore varve thickness data. In this paper, we report in detail on the data mining and compilation strategies for the identification of varved lakes and assimilation of high-resolution chronologies as well as the technical infrastructure of the database. Additional paleoclimate proxy data will be provided in forthcoming updates. The VARDA graph-database and user interface can be accessed online at https://varve.gfz-potsdam.de, all datasets of version 1.0 are available at http://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.3.2019.003 (Ramisch et al., 2019).
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2023-01-04
    Description: Various observational estimates indicate growing mass loss at Antarctica's margins but also heavier precipitation across the continent. In the future, heavier precipitation fallen on Antarctica will counteract any stronger iceberg discharge and increased basal melting of floating ice shelves driven by a warming ocean. Here, we use from nine CMIP5 models future projections, ranging from strong mitigation efforts to business-as-usual, to run an ensemble of ice-sheet simulations. We test, how the precipitation boundary condition determines Antarctica's sea-level contribution. The spatial and temporal varying climate forcings drive ice-sheet simulations. Hence, our ensemble inherits all spatial and temporal climate patterns, which is in contrast to a spatial mean forcing. Regardless of the applied boundary condition and forcing, some areas will lose ice in the future, such as the glaciers from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet draining into the Amundsen Sea. In general the simulated ice-sheet thickness grows in a broad marginal strip, where incoming storms deliver topographically controlled precipitation. This strip shows the largest ice thickness differences between the applied precipitation boundary conditions too. On average Antarctica's ice mass shrinks for all future scenarios if the precipitation is scaled by the spatial temperature anomalies coming from the CMIP5 models. In this approach, we use the relative precipitation increment per degree warming as invariant scaling constant. In contrast, Antarctica gains mass in our simulations if we apply the simulated precipitation anomalies of the CMIP5 models directly. Here, the scaling factors show a distinct spatial pattern across Antarctica. Furthermore, the diagnosed mean scaling across all considered climate forcings is larger than the values deduced from ice cores. In general, the scaling is higher across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, lower across the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and lowest around the Siple Coast. The latter is located on the east side of the Ross Ice Shelf.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2023-01-04
    Description: A finely laminated lake sediment record with a basal age of 11,619 ± 603 years BP was retrieved from Lake Chatyr Kol (Kyrgyz Republic). Microfacies analysis reveals the presence of seasonal laminae (varves) from the sediment basis to ~ 360 ± 40 years BP. The Chatvd19 floating varve chronology covers the time span from 360 ± 40 years BP to the base and relies on replicate varve counts on overlapping petrographic thin sections with an uncertainty of ± 5 %. The uppermost non-varved interval was chronologically constrained by 210Pb and 137Cs γ-spectrometry and interpolation based on varve thickness measurements of adjacent varved intervals with an assumed uncertainty of 10 %. Six varve types were distinguished, are described in detail and show a changing predominance of clastic-organic, clastic-calcitic or -aragonitic, calcitic-clastic, organic-clastic and clastic-diatom varves throughout the Holocene. Variations in varve thickness and the number and composition of seasonal sublayers are attributed to 1) changes in the amount of summer or winter/spring precipitation affecting local runoff and erosion and/or to 2) evaporative conditions during summer. Radiocarbon dating of bulk organic matter, daphnia remains, aquatic plant remains and Ruppia maritima seeds reveal reservoir ages with a clear decreasing trend up core from ~ 6,150 years in the early Holocene, to ~ 3,000 years in the mid-Holocene, to ~ 1,000 years and less in the late Holocene and modern times. In contrast, two radiocarbon dates from terrestrial plant remains are in good agreement with the varve-based chronology.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2023-01-04
    Description: Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and inform on the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimated the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes and the forcings employed. This study presents results from 18 simulations from 15 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100, forced with different scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) representative of the spread in climate model results. The contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). The evolution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss up to 21.0 cm SLE in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.5 and 16.5 cm SLE, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional mass loss of 8 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 AOGCMs show an overall mass loss of 10 mm SLE compared to simulations done under present-day conditions, with limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2023-01-09
    Description: Large amounts of atmospheric carbon can be exported and retained in the deep sea on millennial time scales, buffering global warming. However, while the Barents Sea is one of the most biologically productive areas of the Arctic Ocean, carbon retention times were thought to be short. Here we present observations, complemented by numerical model simulations, that revealed a deep and widespread lateral injection of approximately 2.33 kt C d−1 from the Barents Sea shelf to some 1,200 m of the Nansen Basin, driven by Barents Sea Bottom Water transport. With increasing distance from the outflow region, the plume expanded and penetrated into even deeper waters and the sediment. The seasonally fluctuating but continuous injection increases the carbon sequestration of the Barents Sea by 1/3 and feeds the deep sea community of the Nansen Basin. Our findings combined with those from other outflow regions of carbon-rich polar dense waters highlight the importance of lateral injection as a global carbon sink. Resolving uncertainties around negative feedbacks of global warming due to sea ice decline will necessitate observation of changes in bottom water formation and biological productivity at a resolution high enough to quantify future deep carbon injection.
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