Call number:
PIK O 071-16-89977
Description / Table of Contents:
For epidemiologists, evolutionary biologists, and health-care professionals, real-time and predictive modeling of infectious disease is of growing importance. This book provides a timely and comprehensive introduction to the modeling of infectious diseases in humans and animals, focusing on recent developments as well as more traditional approaches. Matt Keeling and Pejman Rohani move from modeling with simple differential equations to more recent, complex models, where spatial structure, seasonal ""forcing,"" or stochasticity influence the dynamics, and where computer simulation needs to
Type of Medium:
Monograph available for loan
Pages:
XI, 366 Seiten
,
graph. Darst.
ISBN:
9780691116174
URL:
http://www.gbv.de/dms/bowker/toc/9780691116174.pdf
Language:
English
Note:
""Cover""; ""Contents""; ""Acknowledgments""; ""Chapter 1 Introduction""; ""1.1 Types of Disease""; ""1.2 Characterization of Diseases""; ""1.3 Control of Infectious Diseases""; ""1.4 What Are Mathematical Models?""; ""1.5 What Models Can Do""; ""1.6 What Models Cannot Do""; ""1.7 What Is a Good Model?""; ""1.8 Layout of This Book""; ""1.9 What Else Should You Know?""; ""Chapter 2 Introduction to Simple Epidemic Models""; ""2.1 Formulating the Deterministic SIR Model""; ""2.1.1 The SIR Model Without Demography""; ""2.1.1.1 The Threshold Phenomenon""; ""2.1.1.2 Epidemic Burnout"".
,
""2.1.1.3 Worked Example: Influenza in a Boarding School""""2.1.2 The SIR Model With Demography""; ""2.1.2.1 The Equilibrium State""; ""2.1.2.2 Stability Properties""; ""2.1.2.3 Oscillatory Dynamics""; ""2.1.2.4 Mean Age at Infection""; ""2.2 Infection-Induced Mortality and SI Models""; ""2.2.1 Mortality Throughout Infection""; ""2.2.1.1 Density-Dependent Transmission""; ""2.2.1.2 Frequency Dependent Transmission""; ""2.2.2 Mortality Late in Infection""; ""2.2.3 Fatal Infections""; ""2.3 Without Immunity: The SIS Model""; ""2.4 Waning Immunity: The SIRS Model"".
,
""2.5 Adding a Latent Period: The SEIR Model""""2.6 Infections with a Carrier State""; ""2.7 Discrete-Time Models""; ""2.8 Parameterization""; ""2.8.1 Estimating R[sub(0)] from Reported Cases""; ""2.8.2 Estimating R[sub(0)] from Seroprevalence Data""; ""2.8.3 Estimating Parameters in General""; ""2.9 Summary""; ""Chapter 3 Host Heterogeneities""; ""3.1 Risk-Structure: Sexually Transmitted Infections""; ""3.1.1 Modeling Risk Structure""; ""3.1.1.1 High-Risk and Low-Risk Groups""; ""3.1.1.2 Initial Dynamics""; ""3.1.1.3 Equilibrium Prevalence""; ""3.1.1.4 Targeted Control"".
,
""3.1.1.5 Generalizing the Model""""3.1.1.6 Parameterization""; ""3.1.2 Two Applications of Risk Structure""; ""3.1.2.1 Early Dynamics of HIV""; ""3.1.2.2 Chlamydia Infections in Koalas""; ""3.1.3 Other Types of Risk Structure""; ""3.2 Age-Structure: Childhood Infections""; ""3.2.1 Basic Methodology""; ""3.2.1.1 Initial Dynamics""; ""3.2.1.2 Equilibrium Prevalence""; ""3.2.1.3 Control by Vaccination""; ""3.2.1.3 Parameterization""; ""3.2.2 Applications of Age Structure""; ""3.2.2.1 Dynamics of Measles""; ""3.2.2.2 Spread and Control of BSE""; ""3.3 Dependence on Time Since Infection"".
,
""3.3.1 SEIR and Multi-Compartment Models""""3.3.2 Models with Memory""; ""3.3.3 Application: SARS""; ""3.4 Future Directions""; ""3.5 Summary""; ""Chapter 4 Multi-Pathogen/Multi-Host Models""; ""4.1 Multiple Pathogens""; ""4.1.1 Complete Cross-Immunity""; ""4.1.1.1 Evolutionary Implications""; ""4.1.2 No Cross-Immunity""; ""4.1.2.1 Application: The Interaction of Measles and Whooping Cough""; ""4.1.2.2 Application: Multiple Malaria Strains""; ""4.1.3 Enhanced Susceptibility""; ""4.1.4 Partial Cross-Immunity""; ""4.1.4.1 Evolutionary Implications"".
,
""4.1.4.2 Oscillations Driven by Cross-Immunity"".
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