ALBERT

Description: We explore the predictability of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and the potential influence of climate model bias on SST predictions over the tropical Atlantic. Two statistical methods are used to examine the skill in forecasting tropical Atlantic SST anomalies (SSTAs): linear inverse modeling (LIM) and analogue forecast (AF). The statistical models are trained either with observations or with data from two control integrations of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), which only differ with respect to the resolution of its atmospheric component. Observed SSTAs suggest that Tropical Atlantic climatic changes are potentially predictable at lead times of up to 6 months over large parts of the Tropical Atlantic. The SSTAs from the KCM version employing a high-resolution atmosphere model (KCM-HRES) is potentially predictable at a level comparable to that derived from the observations, whereas the SSTAs from the KCM version employing a low-resolution atmosphere model (KCM-LRES) is considerably less potentially predictable. We show that the enhanced potential predictability in the former KCM version can be very likely related to the improved representation of ENSO-like dynamics and its seasonality. We used the statistical models in true forecast mode, i.e. the prediction schemes were trained from data independent of the forecast period. Using observed SSTAs to train the LIM yields significant skill in forecasting observed SSTAs at lead times of up to 4 months across all calendar months, which is mostly restricted to the northern and equatorial western Tropical Atlantic. Similar patterns, but with lower skill, are found when the models’ SSTAs are used, in which LIM trained with the KCM-HRES generally yields higher skills than that from the KCM-LRES. Applying AF yields significant skills in predicting observed SSTAs over the same regions, but the forecast skills are considerably smaller. When the SSTAs together with either sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies or dynamic sea level (DSL) anomalies from the KCM are used to construct the statistical models, the prediction of observed equatorial Atlantic SSTAs can be improved, with significant skill enhancement at lead times of up to 4 months in limited regions. An optimal initial SSTA pattern is found, which results in the largest transient anomaly growth over the entire domain. Independent of external forces, this amplification is developed internally; meaning that the seasonal forecast might be more sensitive to initial conditions than currently thought.

Description: The 1888 Ritter Island volcanic sector collapse triggered a regionally damaging tsunami. Historic eyewitness accounts allow the reconstruction of the arrival time, phase and height of the tsunami wave at multiple locations around the coast of New Guinea and New Britain. 3D seismic interpretations and sedimentological analyses indicate that the catastrophic collapse of Ritter Island was preceded by a phase of deep-seated gradual spreading within the volcanic edifice and accompanied by a submarine explosive eruption, as the volcanic conduit was cut beneath sea level. However, the potential impact of the deep-seated deformation and the explosive eruption on tsunami genesis is unclear. For the first time, it is possible to parameterise the different components of the Ritter Island collapse with 3D seismic data, and thereby test their relative contributions to the tsunami. The modelled tsunami arrival times and heights are in good agreement with the historic eyewitness accounts. Our simulations reveal that the tsunami was primarily controlled by the displacement of the water column by the collapsing cone at the subaerial-submarine boundary and that the submerged fraction of the slide mass and its mobility had only a minor effect on tsunami genesis. This indicates that the total slide volume, when incorporating the deep-seated deforming mass, is not directly scalable for the resulting tsunami height. Furthermore, the simulations show that the tsunamigenic impact of the explosive eruption energy during the Ritter Island collapse was only minor. However, this relationship may be different for other volcanogenic tsunami events with smaller slide volumes or larger magnitude eruptions, and should not be neglected in tsunami simulations and hazard assessment.

Description: The Hikurangi Margin off the east coast of the North Island (Te Ika-a-Māui) is a tectonically active subduction zone and the location of New Zealand’s largest gas hydrate province. Faults are internally complex volumetric zones that may play a significant role in the migration of fluids beneath the seafloor. The combined processes of deformation and fluid migration result in the formation of concentrated hydrate accumulations along accretionary ridges. It is not fully understood to what extent faults control fluid migration along the Hikurangi Margin, and whether deep-seated thrust faults provide a pathway for thermogenic gas to migrate up from sources at depth. Using 2D models based on seismic data from the region we investigated the role of thrust faults in facilitating fluid migration and contributing to the formation of concentrated gas hydrates. By altering permeability properties of the fault zones in these transient state models we can determine whether faults are required to act as fluid flow pathways. In this study we focus on two study sites offshore southern Wairarapa, using realistic yet simplified fault geometries derived from 2D seismic lines. The results of these models allow us to start to disentangle the complex relationship between fault zone structure, permeability, geometry, fluid migration and gas hydrate formation. Based on the model outputs we propose that faults act as primary pathways facilitating fluid migration and are critical in the formation of concentrated gas hydrate deposits.

Description: We project changes of the Aleutian Low (AL) under global warming using ensemble simulations with a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). In the global warming simulations, the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration increases by 1% per year from the preindustrial level of 286.2 ppm to a quadruple value in 140 years. Results from the 40 members of an ensemble simulation show an intensification of the AL such that ensemble mean North Pacific Index (NPI) is decreased by 2.71 hPa. It is also accompanied with an expansion of the AL to north. While the effect of weakened land-ocean thermal contrast and SST warming in the eastern tropical Pacific on the AL strength are relatively weak and marginally significant, sea ice loss in the marginal seas of the North Pacific, such as the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk, increases the surface air temperature and makes pressure lower over the Bering Sea and the Aleutian Islands. Especially, sea ice loss in the Okhotsk Sea drives the SLP change around the Aleutian Islands and contributes to the strengthening of the AL.

Description: Shell formation and repair occurs under the control of mantle epithelial cells in bivalve molluscs. However, limited information is available on the precise acid–base regulatory machinery present within these cells, which are fundamental to calcification. Here, we isolate mantle epithelial cells from the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas and utilise live cell imaging in combination with the fluorescent dye, BCECF-AM to study intracellular pH (pHi) regulation. To elucidate the involvement of various ion transport mechanisms, modified seawater solutions (low sodium, low bicarbonate) and specific inhibitors for acid–base proteins were used. Diminished pH recovery in the absence of Na+ and under inhibition of sodium/hydrogen exchangers (NHEs) implicate the involvement of a sodium dependent cellular proton extrusion mechanism. In addition, pH recovery was reduced under inhibition of carbonic anhydrases. These data provide the foundation for a better understanding of acid–base regulation underlying the physiology of calcification in bivalves.

Description: Biodiversity is generally believed to be a main determinant of ecosystem functioning. This principle also applies to the microbiome and could consequently contribute to host health. According to ecological theory, communities are shaped by top predators whose direct and indirect interactions with community members cause stability and diversity. Bdellovibrio and like organisms (BALOs) are a neglected group of predatory bacteria that feed on Gram-negative bacteria and can thereby influence microbiome composition. We asked whether BALOs can predict biodiversity levels in microbiomes from distinct host groups and environments. We demonstrate that genetic signatures of BALOs are commonly found within the 16S rRNA reads from diverse host taxa. In many cases, their presence, abundance, and especially richness are positively correlated with overall microbiome diversity. Our findings suggest that BALOs can act as drivers of microbial alpha-diversity and should therefore be considered candidates for the restoration of microbiomes and the prevention of dysbiosis.

Description: High-resolution bathymetry collected with an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) along the flanks of three ridges of the accretionary prism offshore southwestern (SW) Taiwan revealed more than 650 elongated depressions in water depths ranging from 1155 to 1420 m. The depressions are between 12 and 129 m long, 5 to 70 m wide, and up 9 m deep at their center and shallowing downslope to about 1-m depth. Due to their shape in downslope cross section, they are termed comet-shaped depressions (CSD). The CSD occur in patches of more than 100 with densities of 53 to 98 CSD/km2. In addition, seven topographic mounds were mapped and interpreted as pingos, which remotely operate vehicle (ROV) observations and sampling show to be covered with authigenic carbonate. These features overlie areas where multichannel seismic reflection (MCS) profiles show bottom simulating reflectors (BSR) and dipping strata extending from below the BSR to near the seafloor. We consider comet-shaped depression, a new type of pockmark, forms on a sloping seafloor where fluids expulsion occurred. We also suggest that the two types of distinctive geomorphic features are attributed to fluid venting which occurs at different rates, with the mounds developing slowly over time, but the CSD forming in discrete events perhaps associated with large earthquakes.

Description: Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus are the most abundant free-living photosynthetic microorganisms in the ocean. Uncultivated lineages of these picocyanobacteria also thrive in the dimly illuminated upper part of oxygen-deficient zones (ODZs), where an important portion of ocean nitrogen (N) loss takes place via denitrification and anaerobic ammonium oxidation. Recent metagenomic studies revealed that ODZ Prochlorococcus have the genetic potential for using different N forms, including nitrate and nitrite, uncommon N sources for Prochlorococcus, but common for Synechococcus. To determine which N sources ODZ picocyanobacteria are actually using in nature, the cellular N-15 natural abundance (delta N-15) and assimilation rates of different N compounds were determined using cell sorting by flow cytometry and mass spectrometry. The natural delta N-15 of the ODZ Prochlorococcus varied from -4.0 parts per thousand to 13.0 parts per thousand (n = 9), with 50% of the values in the range of -2.1-2.6 parts per thousand. While the highest values suggest nitrate use, most observations indicate the use of nitrite, ammonium, or a mixture of N sources. Meanwhile, incubation experiments revealed potential assimilation rates of ammonium and urea in the same order of magnitude as that expected for total N in several environments including ODZs, whereas rates of nitrite and nitrate assimilation were very low. Our results thus indicate that reduced forms of N and nitrite are the dominant sources for ODZ picocyanobacteria, although nitrate might be important on some occasions. ODZ picocyanobacteria might thus represent potential competitors with anammox bacteria for ammonium and nitrite, with ammonia-oxidizing archaea for ammonium, and with nitrite-oxidizing bacteria for nitrite.

Description: The plea for using more “realistic,” community‐level, investigations to assess the ecological impacts of global change has recently intensified. Such experiments are typically more complex, longer, more expensive, and harder to interpret than simple organism‐level benchtop experiments. Are they worth the extra effort? Using outdoor mesocosms, we investigated the effects of ocean warming (OW) and acidification (OA), their combination (OAW), and their natural fluctuations on coastal communities of the western Baltic Sea during all four seasons. These communities are dominated by the perennial and canopy‐forming macrophyte Fucus vesiculosus—an important ecosystem engineer Baltic‐wide. We, additionally, assessed the direct response of organisms to temperature and pH in benchtop experiments, and examined how well organism‐level responses can predict community‐level responses to the dominant driver, OW. OW affected the mesocosm communities substantially stronger than acidification. OW provoked structural and functional shifts in the community that differed in strength and direction among seasons. The organism‐level response to OW matched well the community‐level response of a given species only under warm and cold thermal stress, that is, in summer and winter. In other seasons, shifts in biotic interactions masked the direct OW effects. The combination of direct OW effects and OW‐driven shifts of biotic interactions is likely to jeopardize the future of the habitat‐forming macroalga F. vesiculosus in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, we conclude that seasonal mesocosm experiments are essential for our understanding of global change impact because they take into account the important fluctuations of abiotic and biotic pressures.