ALBERT

Beschreibung: Simulations of a typical midlatitude squall line were used to investigate a mechanism for discrete propagation, defined as convective initiation ahead of an existing squall line leading to a faster propagation speed for the storm complex. Radar imagery often shows new cells appearing in advance of squall lines, suggesting a causal relationship and prompting the search for an “action-at-a-distance” mechanism to explain the phenomenon. In the simulations presented, the identified mechanism involves gravity waves of both low and high frequency generated in response to the latent heating, which subsequently propagate out ahead of the storm. The net result of the low-frequency response, combined with surface fluxes and radiative processes, was a cooler and more moist lower troposphere, establishing a shallow cloud deck extending ahead of the storm. High-frequency gravity waves, excited in response to fluctuations in convective activity in the main storm, were subsequently ducted by the storm’s own upper-tropospheric forward anvil outflow. These waves helped positively buoyant cumulus clouds to occasionally form in the deck. A fraction of these clouds persisted long enough to merge with the main line, invigorating the parent storm. Discrete propagation occurred when clouds developed into deep convection prior to merger, weakening the parent storm. The ducting conditions, as diagnosed with the Scorer parameter, are shown to be sensitive to vertical wind shear and radiation, but not to the microphysical parameterization or simulation geometry.

Beschreibung: The most common option for numerical models of the atmosphere is to use model layers following the surface of the earth, using a terrain-following vertical coordinate. The present paper investigates the forecast of clouds and precipitation using the z-coordinate nonhydrostatic version of the Lokalmodell (LM-z). This model uses model layers that are parallel to the surface of the sphere and consequently intersect the orography. Physical processes are computed on a special grid, allowing adequate grid spacing even over high mountains. In other respects the model is identical to the nonhydrostatic terrain-following version of the LM, which in a number of European countries is used for operational mesoscale forecasting. The terrain-following version of the LM (LM-tf) is used for comparison with the forecasts of the LM-z. Terrain-following coordinates are accurate when the orography is shallow and smooth, while z-coordinate models need not satisfy this condition. Because the condition of smooth orography is rarely satisfied in reality, z-coordinate models should lead to a better representation of the atmospheric flow near mountains and consequently to a better representation of fog, low stratus, and precipitation. A number of real-data cases, computed with a grid spacing of 7 and 14 km, are investigated. A total of 39 real-data cases have been used to evaluate forecast scores. A rather systematic improvement of precipitation forecasts resulted in a substantial increase of threat scores. Furthermore, RMS verification against radiosondes showed an improvement of the 24-h forecast, both for wind and temperature. To investigate the possibility of flow separation at mountain tops, the flow in the lee of southern Italy was investigated.

Beschreibung: The interannual and intraseasonal variability of the North American monsoon is of great interest because a large proportion of the annual precipitation for Arizona and New Mexico arrives during the summer monsoon. Forty-one years of daily monsoon season precipitation data for Arizona and New Mexico were studied using wavelet analysis. This time-localized spectral analysis method reveals that periodicities of less than 8 days are positively correlated with mean daily precipitation during the 1 July–15 September monsoon period. Roughly 17% of the years indicate no significant periodicity during the monsoon period for either region and are associated with low monsoon precipitation. High- and low-frequency modes explain an equivalent percentage of the variance in monsoon precipitation in both Arizona and New Mexico, and in many years concurrent multiple periodicities occur. Wavelet analysis was effective in identifying the contribution of high-frequency modes that had not been discerned in previous studies. These results suggest that precipitation processes during the monsoon season are modulated by phenomena operating at synoptic (2–8 days) and longer (〉8 days) time scales and point to the need for further studies to better understand the associated atmospheric processes.

Beschreibung: The central differencing grid with fully staggered velocity components (C grid) is widely used in primitive equation oceanographic models despite potential problems in simulating baroclinic inertia–gravity and Rossby waves that can arise due to the averaging of velocity components in the Coriolis terms. This note proposes a new averaging of the velocity components in order to calculate the Coriolis terms on the C grid. The averaging weights are calculated from the minimum of a suitably defined cost function that optimally minimizes the error in the inertial part of frequencies of inertia–gravity waves and maintains the second-order accuracy of the computations. The theoretical analysis of wave frequency diagrams shows that the new scheme results in more accurate frequencies of long inertia–gravity and Rossby waves, especially when the Rossby radius of deformation is not well resolved by the grid resolution.

Beschreibung: A fully coupled regional climate, 3D lake modeling system is used to investigate the physical mechanisms associated with the multiscale variability of the Lake Victoria basin climate. To examine the relative influence of different processes on the lake basin climate, a suite of model experiments were performed by smoothing topography around the lake basin, altering lake surface characteristics, and reducing or increasing the amount of large-scale moisture advected into the lake region through the four lateral boundaries of the model domain. Simulated monthly mean rainfall over the basin is comparable to the satellite (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) estimates. Peaks between midnight and early morning hours characterize the simulated diurnal variability of rainfall over the four quadrants of the lake, consistent with satellite estimates, although the simulated peaks occur a little earlier. It is evident in the simulations with smoothed topography that the upslope/downslope flow generated by the mountains east of the lake and the land–lake breeze circulations play important roles in influencing the intensity, the location of lake/land breeze fronts, and the horizontal extent of the land–lake breeze circulation, as well as lake basin precipitation. When the lake surface is replaced with marsh (water hyacinth), the late night and early morning rainfall maximum located over the western sector of the lake is dramatically reduced. Our simulations also indicate that large-scale moisture transported via the prevailing easterly trades enhances lake basin precipitation significantly. This is in contrast to the notion advanced in some of the previous studies that Lake Victoria generates its own climate (rainfall) through precipitation–evaporation–reprecipitation recycling only.

Beschreibung: In this study, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) was used to simulate Supertyphoon Bilis (in 2000) and Typhoon Toraji (in 2001) in order to investigate the dynamics of track deflection caused by the Central Mountain Range (CMR) of Taiwan. The MM5 predicted the track of each storm reasonably well. Bilis was stronger and had a relatively faster forward motion, which helped make the track continuous as it crossed the CMR. The use of a “bogus” vortex in the initialization process helped produce a storm closer to the observed strength. Bilis is a classic example of a typhoon crossing Taiwan with a continuous track. For comparison, Typhoon Toraji, a typical typhoon having a discontinuous track, was also studied. Toraji was weaker and had a relatively slower forward speed, which prevented the original low center from crossing over the CMR and forced more air parcels to go around the northern tip of the CMR. As a result, it produced a vortex and a secondary low center on the lee. Potential vorticity banners on the north side of the CMR acted to organize the secondary low and the lee vortex. With time, the low-level circulation extended into the upper levels, completing the formation of the secondary center. Remnants of the initial center crossed over the CMR and were entrained into the secondary center. Nondimensional control parameters for track continuity and deflection from idealized studies are calculated for Bilis and Toraji. The results are consistent with the theory proposed in Lin et al. For tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching Taiwan from the southeast, the conceptual model proposed by Lin et al. for continuous and discontinuous tracks was applied. For continuous tracks over the CMR, the blocking effect on the outer circulation of the vortex is weak and the vorticity advection around the northern tip is strong due to an intense TC. Weak TCs tend to be totally blocked by the CMR.

Beschreibung: Anticyclonic left-moving supercells are observed each year in the United States, emanating both discretely and from storm splitting processes. Such thunderstorms often produce severe hail and wind gusts and, on rare occasion, tornadoes. The body of documentary literature on this subset of supercells is relatively scant compared with right-moving storms, and this is especially true regarding visual characteristics and conceptual models. Here a characteristic example of the anticyclonic supercell is presented using an intense and well-defined specimen that passed over Aroya, Colorado, on 15 June 2002. Photographic and radar documentation is provided in original and mirrored forms, for aid in conceptualizing the left-moving supercell and associated structures and processes. A summary overview is presented of the environment, development, evolution, and effects of this remotely located but noteworthy event.

Beschreibung: As an effort toward improving climate model–component performance and accuracy, an atmospheric-component climate model has been developed, entitled the Spectral Element Atmospheric Climate Model and denoted as CAM_SEM. CAM_SEM includes a unique dynamical core coupled at this time to the physics component of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) as well as the Community Land Model. This model allows the inclusion of local mesh refinement to seamlessly study imbedded higher-resolution regional climate concurrently with the global climate. Additionally, the numerical structure of the model based on spectral elements allows for application of state-of-the-art computing hardware most effectively and economically to produce the best prediction/simulation results with minimal expenditure of computing resources. The model has been tested under various conditions beginning with the shallow water equations and ending with an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style run that uses initial conditions and physics comparable to the CAM2 (version 2 of the NCAR CAM climate model) experiments. For uniform resolution, the output of the model compares favorably with the published output from the CAM2 experiments. Further integrations with local mesh refinement included indicate that while greater detail in the prediction of mesh-refined regions—that is, regional climate—is observed, the remaining coarse-grid results are similar to results obtained from a uniform-grid integration of the model with identical conditions. It should be noted that in addition to spectral elements, other efficient schemes have lately been considered, in particular the finite-volume scheme. This scheme has not yet been incorporated into CAM_SEM. The two schemes—finite volume and spectral element—are quasi-independent and generally compatible, dealing with different aspects of the integration process. Their impact can be assessed separately and the omission of the finite-volume process herein will not detract from the evaluation of the results using the spectral-element method alone.

Beschreibung: Several interesting characteristics of African easterly waves (AEWs) were observed and investigated by previous studies: two separate propagation paths, genesis mechanisms, restriction of vertical development, and the interaction with the African easterly jet (AEJ). However, some aspects of these characteristics have been neglected: the contrast of the AEW population along the two propagation paths, the AEW genesis mechanism over the Saharan thermal low and the role played by the low-level North African circulation in this mechanism, the dynamical mechanism restricting the vertical development of AEWs, and the synoptic relationship and interaction between the AEJ and the AEWs along the two propagation paths. The ECMWF reanalyses for the 1991–2000 period supplemented with those of 1979 were analyzed to explore these AEW features. Major findings of this effort are the following: The population of AEWs along the propagation path north of the AEJ (AEWn) is approximately 2.5 times of that along the propagation path south of the AEJ (AEWs). The AEWn geneses primarily occur over the three convergent centers and the southwestward extension of the Saharan thermal low. Underneath the midtropospheric Saharan high, the baroclinic instability of a shallow, low static stability environment, which may be triggered by the intrusion of dry northerlies over central North Africa, leads to the AEW genesis. Continental-scale upward motion along the Saharan thermal low and the cyclonic-shear side of the AEJ maintains positive vortex stretching below the Saharan high and the western part of the Asian monsoon high. These two regions thus form a favorable environment for the development of AEWs within the near-surface troposphere along the Saharan thermal low and the midtroposphere south of the AEJ. The passage of AEWn (AEWs) across the coastal zone of West Africa is accompanied by a weak (strong) AEJ and weak (strong) Saharan high. The westward propagation and development/maintenance of the two types of AEWs are achieved through vorticity advection by the AEJ, which is the major AEW–AEJ interaction. These findings will facilitate the search for AEW dynamics and aid in assessing the impact of AEW activity on North African climate change.

Beschreibung: This study assesses the role of mesoscale forcing on cell morphology and early evolution of midlatitude squall lines. The forcing chosen was a cold front, simulated to frontal collapse to produce a specific set of thermodynamic profiles at the leading edge of the front. Use of a realistic, balanced, and persistent forced state allowed a unique evaluation of its importance in thunderstorm evolution compared with a traditional homogeneous environment without forcing. Three-dimensional squall lines were modeled with and without the front present, in low and high bulk Richardson number environments. The forced convection evolved in significantly different ways than their isolated, unforced counterparts. In low-shear conditions, the line of isolated convective cells split, with the adjacent split cells interfering destructively with neighboring cells in the line. With forcing present, differences in anticyclonic cell intensity and propagation prevented this interaction from occurring, leading to longer-lived cyclonic convection despite a near-normal orientation between cloud-bearing shear and the convective line. The split-cell interaction also failed to occur under higher-shear conditions due to anticyclonic cell decay given the greater cyclonic hodograph curvature. In both low- and higher-shear environments, a strong bias toward cyclonic storms was noted with forcing present, due to shallower anticyclonic cells with the front present and to preexisting vorticity in the environment; updraft–vorticity correlations were skewed accordingly. Forcing also reduced the sensitivity of the evolving convection to detailed aspects of the initialization.