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  • Articles  (25)
  • climate change
  • 1990-1994  (25)
  • Biology  (18)
  • Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering  (12)
  • 11
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Simulating the carbon flux between the terrestrial environment and the atmosphere (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 199-230 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; biogeophysical feedbacks ; geographically explicit global C cycle model ; CO2 fertilization ; soil respiration ; land cover change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A Terrestrial C Cycle model that is incorporated in the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE 2.0) is described. The model is a geographically explicit implementation of a model that simulates the major C fluxes in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere and between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Climatic parameters, land cover and atmospheric C concentrations determine the result of the dynamic C simulations. The impact of changing land cover patterns, caused by anthropogenic activities (shifting agriculture, de- and afforestation) and climatic change are modeled implicitly. Feedback processes such as CO2 fertilization and temperature effects on photosynthesis, respiration and decomposition are modeled explicitly. The major innovation of this approach is that the consequences of climate change are taken into account instantly and that their results can be quantified on a global medium-resolution grid. The objectives of this paper are to describe the C cycle model in detail, present the linkages with other parts of the IMAGE 2.0 framework, and give an array of different simulations to validate and test the robustness of this modeling approach. The computed global net primary production (NPP) for the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 was 60.6 Gt C a−1, with a global net ecosystem production (NEP) of 2.4 Gt C a−1. The simulated C flux as result from land cover changes was 1.1 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 acted as a C sink of 1.3 Gt C a−1. Global phytomass amounted 567.5 Gt C and the dead biomass pool was 1517.7 Gt C. IMAGE 2.0 simulated for the period 1970–2050 a global average temperature increase of 1.6 °C and a global average precipitation increase of 0.1 mm/day. The CO2 concentration in 2050 was 522.2 ppm. The computed NPP for the year 2050 is 82.5 Gt C a−1, with a NEP of 8.1 Gt C a−1. Projected land cover changes result in a C flux of 0.9 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere will be a strong sink of 7.2 Gt C a−1. The amount of phytomass hardly changed (600.7 Gt C) but the distribution over the different regions had. Dead biomass increased significantly to 1667.2 Gt C.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478340
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  • 12
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system: Part 1: Model description and testing (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 1-35 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: integrated modeling ; integrated assessment ; greenhouse gas emissions ; global change ; climate change ; land cover change ; C cycle
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes the IMAGE 2.0 model, a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The objectives of the model are to investigate linkages and feedbacks in the system, and to evaluate consequences of climate policies. Dynamic calculations are performed to year 2100, with a spatial scale ranging from grid (0.5°×0.5° latitudelongitude) to world regional level, depending on the sub-model. The model consists of three fully linked sub-systems: Energy-Industry, Terrestrial Environment, and Atmosphere-Ocean. The Energy-Industry models compute the emissions of greenhouse gases in 13 world regions as a function of energy consumption and industrial production. End use energy consumption is computed from various economic/demographic driving forces. The Terrestrial Environment models simulate the changes in global land cover on a gridscale based on climatic and economic factors, and the flux of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from the biosphere to the atmosphere. The Atmosphere-Ocean models compute the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting zonal-average temperature and precipitation patterns. The fully linked model has been tested against data from 1970 to 1990, and after calibration can reproduce the following observed trends: regional energy consumption and energy-related emissions, terrestrial flux of CO2 and emissions of greenhouse gases, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and transformation of land cover. The model can also simulate long term zonal average surface and vertical temperatures.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478335
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  • 13
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system: Part 2: Computed scenarios (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 37-78 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; global change ; integrated assessment ; integrated models ; scenario analysis ; carbon cycle ; biofuels
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concentrations of gases, temperature, precipitation, land cover and other indicators. Included are a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario, and three variations of this scenario: (i) the Conventional Wisdom scenario is a reference case which is partly based on the input assumptions of the IPCC's IS92a scenario; (ii) the “Biofuel Crops” scenario assumes that most biofuels will be derived from new cropland; (iii) the “No Biofuels” scenario examines the sensitivity of the system to the use of biofuels; and (iv) the “Ocean Realignment” scenario investigates the effect of a large-scale change in ocean circulation on the biosphere and climate. Results of the biofuel scenarios illustrate the importance of examining the impact of biofuels on the full range of greenhouse gases, rather than only CO2. These scenarios also indicate possible side effects of the land requirements for energy crops. The Ocean Realignment scenario shows that an unexpected, low probability event can both enhance the build-up of greenhouse gases, and at the same time cause a temporary cooling of surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. However, warming of the atmosphere is only delayed, not avoided.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478336
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  • 14
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 79-131 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: energy modeling ; greenhouse gas emissions ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the “Energy-Industry System” is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (“end-use approach”). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the “Energy-Industry System” models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970–1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478337
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  • 15
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Simulating changes in global land cover as affected by economic and climatic factors (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 163-198 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: land cover ; land use ; agricultural demand ; climate change ; global change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes two global models: (1) an Agricultural Demand Model which is used to compute the consumption and demand for commodities that define land use in 13 world regions; and, (2) a Land Cover Model, which simulates changes in land cover on a global terrestrial grid (0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude) resulting from economic and climatic factors. Both are part of the IMAGE 2.0 model of global climate change. The models have been calibrated and tested with regional data from 1970–1990. The Agricultural Demand Model can approximate the observed trend in commodity consumption and the Land Cover Model simulates the total amount of land converted within 13 world regions during this period. Some degree of the spatial variability of deforestation has also been captured by the simulation. Applying the model to a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario showed that future trends of land conversions could be strikingly different on different continents even though a consistent scenario (IS92a from the IPCC) was used for assumptions about economic growth and population. Sensitivity analysis indicated that future land cover patterns are especially sensitive to assumed technological improvements in crop yield and computed changes in agricultural demand.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478339
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  • 16
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Ethical issues concerning potential global climate change on food production (1992)
    Springer
    Journal of agricultural and environmental ethics 5 (1992), S. 113-146 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-322X
    Keywords: climate change ; food ; agriculture ; ethics ; technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Philosophy
    Notes: Abstract Burning fossil fuel in the North American continent contributes more to the CO2 global warming problem than in any other continent. The resulting climate changes are expected to alter food production. The overall changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, insect pests, plant pathogens, and weeds associated with global warming are projected to reduce food production in North America. However, in Africa, the projected slight rise in rainfall is encouraging, especially since Africa already suffers from severe shortages of rainfall. For all regions, a reduction in fossil fuel burning is vital. Adoption of sound ecological resource management, especially soil and water conservation and the prevention of deforestation, is important. Together, these steps will benefit agriculture, the environment, farmers, and society as a whole.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01966356
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  • 17
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Chemical properties of an acidified humic headwater lake with respect to reducing acidic depositions and expected climate change (1994)
    Springer
    Hydrobiologia 274 (1994), S. 143-154 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-5117
    Keywords: humic headwater lake ; water chemistry ; acidification ; reducing acidic deposition ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract During the hydrological years 1989 and 1990, water analyses of the dystrophic mountain cirque Lake Huzenbach and the precipitation within its watershed were performed. Periods of droughts which are supposed to be induced by climate change as well as acidic pulses modify the chemical composition of lake water. Snow melt and heavy rains cause flash floods in lake inflows which are controlled by subsurface-flow. One of the inflows exhibits extremely low pH values [pHmin = 3.66], high concentrations for aluminium [Almax = 1.10 mg l-1], dissolved organic carbon [DOCmax = 30.7 mg l-1], and sulfate [SO4max = 9.08 mg l-1]. Organic and inorganic acids are both likely to contribute to the acidity of these surface waters. During baseflow conditions, groundwater springs still show slightly positive alkalinity values as well as increased pH values up to about 6.0. Since 1985 lake surface samples demonstrate an increasing tendency towards pH values higher than 5.0 during dry summer periods. Positive alkalinity values occur in the hypolimnion during anoxic conditions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00014637
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  • 18
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The prediction of water temperatures in chalk streams from air temperatures (1991)
    Springer
    Hydrobiologia 210 (1991), S. 183-189 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-5117
    Keywords: water temperature ; rivers ; regression ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The water temperatures of four English chalk streams which have a large groundwater component in their discharge were studied. Simple linear regression models were used to described mean monthly water temperature as a function of mean monthly air temperature. There were no significant between-year differences within rivers, in the case of the Lambourn, Winterbourne and Tadnoll. For the Frome, only one year out of the eight studied was significantly different from the others. Further analysis revealed that there were no significant differences between the Tadnoll, Winterbourne and Lambourn, and that the relationship between maximum monthly water temperature and air temperature was best described by the equation y = 4.29 + 0.55x. Using this pooled equation to predict river temperatures for the three rivers studied gave mean deviations of less than 1 °C from the observed temperatures. It was concluded that linear regressions of the type presented are sufficiently accurate to predict the thermal regimes of rivers for a variety of limnological purposes. They can also be used to predict the temperature response of chalk streams to increased air temperatures that may be produced by climate change. The results predict that chalk streams would show less increase in temperature than other running waters under these circumstances.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00034676
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  • 19
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Litter mass loss rates in pine forests of Europe and Eastern United States: some relationships with climate and litter quality (1993)
    Springer
    Biodegradation 20 (1993), S. 127-159 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: decomposition ; litter mass loss ; climate ; climate change ; pine ; actual evapotranspiration
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract The purpose of this study was to relate regional variation in litter mass-loss rates (first year) in pine forests to climate across a large, continental-scale area. The variation in mass-loss rate was analyzed using 39 experimental sites spanning climatic regions from the subarctic to subtropical and Mediterranean: the latitudinal gradient ranged from 31 °N to 70 °N and may represent the the largest geographical area that has ever been sampled and observed for the purpose of studying biogeochemical processes. Because of unified site design and uniform laboratory procedures, data from all sites were directly comparable and permitted a determination of the relative influence of climateversus substrate quality viewed from the perspective of broad regional scales. Simple correlation applied to the entire data set indicated that annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) should be the leading climatic constraint on mass-loss rates (Radj 2 = 0.496). The combination of AET, average July temp. and average annual temp. could explain about 70% of the sites' variability on litter mass-loss. In an analysis of 23 Scots pine sites north of the Alps and Carpatians AET alone could account for about 65% of the variation and the addition of a substrate-quality variable was sufficiently significant to be used in a model. The influence of litter quality was introduced into a model, using data from 11 sites at which litter of different quality had been incubated. These sites are found in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Finland. At any one site most ( ≫ 90%) of the variation in mass-loss rates could be explained by one of the litter-quality variables giving concentration of nitrogen, phosphorus or water solubles. However, even when these models included nitrogen or phosphorus even small changes in potential evapotranspiration resulted in large changes in early-phase decay rates. Further regional subdivision of the data set, resulted in a range of strength in the relationship between loss rate and climatic variables, from very weak in Central Europe to strong for the Scandinavian and Atlantic coast sites (Radj 2 = 0.912; AETversus litter mass loss). Much of the variation in observed loss rates could be related to continentalversus marine/Atlantic influences. Inland locations had mass-loss rates lower than should be expected on the basis of for example AET alone. Attempts to include seasonality variables were not successful. It is clear that either unknown errors and biases, or, unknown variables are causing these regional differences in response to climatic variables. Nevertheless these results show the powerful influence of climate as a control of the broad-scale geography of mass-loss rates and substrate quality at the stand level. Some of these relationships between mass-loss rate and climatic variables are among the highest ever reported, probably because of the care taken to select uniform sites and experimental methods. This suggest that superior, base line maps of predicted mass-loss rates could be produced using climatic data. These models should be useful to predict the changing equilibrium litter dynamics resulting from climatic change.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00000785
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  • 20
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Introduction: A perspective from the humanities-science boundary (1994)
    Springer
    Human ecology 22 (1994), S. 1-22 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9915
    Keywords: climate change ; episodes ; radiation balance ; global change ; historical ecology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Ethnic Sciences
    Notes: Abstract The articles in this special issue range across such influences on climate as solar emissions, orbital precession, atmosphere, oceans, and precipitation, and generally approach, each in some context, human implications of these phenomena. The common underlying theme of all of the papers is the effect the phenomena have on radiation balance as measured by global average temperature. This introductory paper undertakes a formulation of radiation balance theory that makes it serviceable to students of regional science. The objective is to go beyond inference of cause and effect by correlation to causal accounts of cause and effect through regional climatic and cultural processes. This is accomplished primarily by revisualization of the energy system with regions as dependent spatiotemporal entities, and temporally through a protocol for regional episode definition.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02168760
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