ALBERT

Note: Contents: 1 The origins of ACSYS / Victor Savtchenko. - PART I OBSERVATIONS: 2 Advances in Arctic atmospheric research / James E. Overland and Mark C. Serreze. - 3 Sea-ice observation: advances and challenges / Humfrey Melling. - 4 Observations in the ocean / Bert Rudels, Leif Anderson, Patrick Eriksson, Eberhard Fahrbach, Martin Jakobsson, E. Peter Jones, Humfrey Melling, Simon Prinsenberg, Ursula Schauer, and Tom Yao. - 5 Observed hydrological cycle / Hermann Mächel, Bruno Rudolf, Thomas Maurer, Stefan Hagemann, Reinhard Hagenbrock, Lev Kitaev, Eirik J. Førland, Vjacheslav Rasuvaev, and Ole Einar Tveito. - 6 Interaction with the global climate system / T. A. McClimans, G. V. Alekseev, O. M. Johannessen, and M. W. Miles. - PART II MODELLING: 7 Mesoscale modelling of the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer and its interaction with sea ice / Christof Lüpkes, Timo Vihma, Gerit Birnbaum, Silke Dierer, Thomas Garbrecht, Vladimir M. Gryanik, Micha Gryschka, Jörg Hartmann, Günther Heinemann, Lars Kaleschke, Siegfried Raasch, Hannu Savijärvi, K. Heinke Schlünzen, and Ulrike Wacker. - 8 Arctic regional climate models / K. Dethloff, A. Rinke, A. Lynch, W. Dorn, S. Saha, and D. Handorf. - 9 Progress in hydrological modeling over high latitudes: under arctic climate system study (ACSYS) / Dennis P. Lettenmaier and Fengge Su. - 10 Sea-ice-ocean modelling / Rüdiger Gerdes and Peter Lemke. - 11 Global climate models and 20th and 21st century Arctic climate change / Cecilia M. Bitz, Jeff K. Ridley, Marika Holland, and Howard Cattle. - 12 ACSYS: Scientific foundation for the climate and cryosphere (CliC) project / Konrad Steffen, Daqing Yang, Vladimir Ryabinin, and Ghassem Asrar.

Note: Contents: PART I INTRODUCTION, NUMERICAL OVERVIEW, AND DATA-SETS. - 1 The march towards the quantitative analysis of palaeolimnological data. - 2 Overview of numerical metods in Palaeolimnology. - 3 Data-Sets. - PART II NUMERICAL METHODS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF MODERN AND STRATIGRAPHICAL PALAEOLIMNOLOGICAL DATA. - 4 Introduction and overview Part II. - 5 Exploratory data analysis and data display. - Assessment of uncertainities associated with Palaeolimnological laboratory methods and microfossil analysis. - 7 Clustering and partitioning. - 8 From Classical to canonical ordination. - 9 Statistical learning in Palaeolimnology. - PART III NUMERICAL METHODS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF STRATIGRAPHICAL PALAEOLIMNOLOGICAL DATA. - 10 Introduction and overview of Part III. - 11 Analysis of stratigraphical data. - 12 Estimation of age-depth relationships. - 13 Core correlation. - 14 Quantitative environmental reconstructions from biological data. - 15 Analogue methods in Palaeolimnology. - 16 Autocorrelogram and Periodogram analysis of palaeolimnological temporal-series from lakes in Central and Western North America to assess shifts in drought conditions. - PART IV CASE STUDIES AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS IN QUANTITATIVE PALAEOLIMNOLOGY. - 17 Introduction and overview of Part IV. - 18 Limnological responses to environmental changes at Inter-annual to decadal time-scales. - 19 Human impacts: applications of numerical methods to evaluate surface-water acidification and eutrophication. - 20 Tracking Holocene climatic change with aquatic biota from lake sediments: case studies of commonly used numerical techniques. - 21 Conclusions and future challenges. - Glossary. - Index.

Note: PART I: BIOSPHERE - 1. Forest disturbance assessment using satellite data of moderate and low resolution / M. A. Korets, V. A. Ryzhkova, A. I. Sukhinin, S. A. Bartalev and I. V. Danilova 2. Fire / climate interactions in Siberia / Heiko Balzter, Kevin Tansey, Jorg Kaduk, Charles George, France Gerard, Maria Cuevas Gonzalez, Anatoly Sukhinin and Evgeni Ponomarev 3. Long-term dynamics of mixed fir-aspen forests in West Sayan (Altai-Sayan Ecoregion) / D. M. Ismailova and D. I. Nazimova 4. Evidence of evergreen conifers invasion into larch dominated forests during recent decades / V. I. Kharuk, K. J. Ranson and M. L. Dvinskaya 5. Potential climate-induced vegetation change in Siberia in the 21st century / N. M. Tchebakova , E. I. Parfenova, and A. J. Soja 6. Wildfire dynamics in mid-Siberian larch dominated forests / V. I. Kharuk, K. J. Ranson and M. L. Dvinskaya 7. Dendroclimatological evidence of climate changes across Siberia / Vladimir V. Shishov, Eugene A. Vaganov 8. Siberian pine and larch response to climate warming in the southern Siberian mountain forest: tundra ecotone / V. I. Kharuk, K. J. Ranson, M. L. Dvinskaya and S. T. Im PART II: HYDROSPHERE 9. Remote sensing of spring snowmelt in Siberia / A. Bartsch, W. Wagner and R. Kidd 10. Response of river runoff in the cryolithic zone of Eastern Siberia (Lena River Basin) to future climate warming / A. G. Georgiadi, I. P. Milyukova and E. A. Kashutina PART III: ATMOSPHERE 11. Investigating regional scale processes using remotely sensed atmospheric CO2 column concentrations from SCIAMACHY / M. P. Barkley, A. J. Hewitt and P. S. Monks 12. Climatic and geographic patterns of spatial distribution of precipitation in Siberia / A. Onuchin and T. Burenina PART IV: INFORMATION SYSTEMS 13. Interoperability, data discovery and access: the e-Infrastructures for Earth Sciences resources / Stefano Nativi, Christiana Schmullius, Lorenzo Bigagli and Roman Gerlach 14. Development of a web based information-computational infrastructure for the Siberia Integrated Regional Study / E. P. Gordov, A. Z. Fazliev, V. N. Lykosov, I. G. Okladnikov and A. G. Titov 15. Conclusions / Heiko Balzter. - Appendix. - Index.

Note: Contents: 1 Introduction and examples. - 1.1 Introduction. - 1.2 Why Bayes?. - 1.2.1 Estimating the probability of a rare event. - 1.2.2 Building a predictive model. - 1.3 Where we are going. - 1.4 Discussion and further references. - 2 Belief, probability and exchangeability. - 2.1 Belief functions and probabilities. - 2.2 Events, partitions and Bayes' rule. - 2.3 Independence. - 2.4 Random variables. - 2.4.1 Discrete random variables. - 2.4.2 Continuous random variables. - 2.4.3 Descriptions of distributions. - 2.5 Joint distributions. - 2.6 Independent random variables. - 2.7 Exchangeability. - 2.8 de Finetti's theorem. - 2.9 Discussion and further references. - 3 One-parameter models. - 3.1 The binomial model. - 3.1.1 Inference for exchangeable binary data. - 3.1.2 Confidence regions. - 3.2 The Poisson model. - 3.2.1 Posterior inference . - 3.2.2 Example: Birth rates. - 3.3 Exponential families and conjugate priors. - 3.4 Discussion and further references. - 4 Monte Carlo approximation. - 4.1 The Monte Carlo method. - 4.2 Posterior inference for arbitrary functions. - 4.3 Sampling from predictive distributions. - 4.4 Posterior predictive model checking. - 4.5 Discussion and further references. - 5 The normal model. - 5.1 The normal model. - 5.2 Inference for the mean, conditional on the variance. - 5.3 Joint inference for the mean and variance. - 5.4 Bias, variance and mean squared error. - 5.5 Prior specification based on expectations. - 5.6 The normal model for non-normal data. - 5.7 Discussion and further references. - 6 Posterior approximation with the Gibbs sampler. - 6.1 A semiconjugate prior distribution. - 6.2 Discrete approximations. - 6.3 Sampling from the conditional distributions. - 6.4 Gibbs sampling. - 6.5 General properties of the Gibbs sampler. - 6.6 Introduction to MCMC diagnostics. - 6.7 Discussion and further references. - 7 The multivariate normal model. - 7.1 The multivariate normal density. - 7.2 A semiconjugate prior distribution for the mean. - 7.3 The inverse-Wishart distribution. - 7.4 Gibbs sampling of the mean and covariance. - 7.5 Missing data and imputation. - 7.6 Discussion and further references. - 8 Group comparisons and hierarchical modeling. - 8.1 Comparing two groups. - 8.2 Comparing multiple groups. - 8.2.1 Exchangeability and hierarchical models. - 8.3 The hierarchical normal model. - 8.3.1 Posterior inference. - 8.4 Example: Math scores in U.S. public schools. - 8.4.1 Prior distributions and posterior approximation. - 8.4.2 Posterior summaries and shrinkage. - 8.5 Hierarchical modeling of means and variances. - 8.5.1 Analysis of math score data. - 8.6 Discussion and further references. - 9 Linear regression. - 9.1 The linear regression model. - 9.1.1 Least squares estimation for the oxygen uptake data. - 9.2 Bayesian estimation for a regression model. - 9.2.1 A semiconjugate prior distribution. - 9.2.2 Default and weakly informative prior distributions. - 9.3 Model selection. - 9.3.1 Bayesian model comparison. - 9.3.2 Gibbs sampling and model averaging. - 9.4 Discussion and further references. - 10 Nonconjugate priors and Metropolis-Hastings algorithms. - 10.1 Generalized linear models. - 10.2 The Metropolis algorithm. - 10.3 The Metropolis algorithm for Poisson regression. - 10.4 Metropolis, Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs. - 10.4.1 The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. - 10.4.2 Why does the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm work?. - 10.5 Combining the Metropolis and Gibbs algorithms. - 10.5.1 A regression model with correlated errors. - 10.5.2 Analysis of the ice core data. -

Note: TABLE OF CONTENTS: Preface / R. Matzke-Karasz, M. Schudack, K. Martens. - REVIEW PAPER. - Ostracod recovery in the aftermath of the Permian-Triassic crisis: Palaeozoic-Mesozoic turnover / S. Crasquin-Soleau, T. Galfetti, H. Bucher, S. Kershaw, Q. Feng. - OSTRACOD TAXONOMY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY. - The influence of El Niño 1997-98 on pelagic ostracods in the Humboldt Current Ecosystem off Peru / R. Castillo, T. Antezana, P. Ayón. - A new, interstitial species of Terrestricythere (Crustacea: Ostracoda) and its microdistribution at Orito Beach, northeastern Sea of Japan / S. F. Hiruta, S.-i. Hiruta, S. F. Mawatari. - Non-marine Ostracoda (Crustacea) of Banat district in Serbia / T. Karan-Žnidaršič, B. Petrov. - ECOLOGICAL FACTORS AFFECTING OSTRACOD DISTRIBUTION. - A year round comparative study on the population structures of pelagic Ostracoda in Admiralty Bay (Southern Ocean) / K. Blachowiak-Samolyk, M.V. Angel. - Water quality and diversity of the Recent ostracod fauna in lowland springs from Lombardy (northern Italy) / V. Pieri, C. Caserini, S. Gomarasca, K. Martens, G. Rossetti. - Factors affecting spatial and temporal distribution of Ostracoda assemblages in different macrophyte habitats of a shallow lake (Lake Fehér, Hungary) / A. Kiss. - Groundwater Ostracods from the arid Pilbara region of northwestern Australia: distribution and water chemistry / J. M. Reeves, P. De Deckker, S. A. Halse. - Ecological requirements of Ostracoda (Crustacea) in a heavily polluted shallow lake, Lake Yeniçağa (Bolu, Turkey) / O. Külköylüoğlu, M. Dügel, M. Kılıç. - Food selection in Eucypris virens (Crustacea: Ostracoda) under experimental conditions / O. Schmit, G. Rossetti, J. Vandekerkhove, F. Mezquita. - EVOLUTIONARY SIGNIFICANCE OF OSTRACOD MORPHOLOGY. - Extra-lobal and complex dimorphic features in Middle Devonian palaeocopine ostracods / G. Becker, W. K. Braun. - Evolutionary and taxonomic aspects within the species group Pseudocandona eremita (Vejdovský) (Ostracoda, Candonidae) / S. lepure, T. Namiotko, D. L. Danielopol. - On the origin of the putative furca of the Ostracoda (Crustacea) / C. Meisch. - Ultrastructure of the carapace margin in the Ostracoda (Arthropoda: Crustacea) / S. Yamada. - Ultrastructure of hepatopancreas and its possible role as a hematopoietic organ in non-marine cypridoidean ostracods (Crustacea) / R. Symonova. - OSTRACOD REPRODUCTION AND ONTOGENY. - Copulatory behaviour and sexual morphology of three Fabaeformiscandona Krstić, 1972 (Candoninae, Ostracoda, Crustacea) species from Japan, including descriptions of two new species / R. J. Smith, T. Kamiya. - Early release of eggs and embryos in a brooding ancient asexual ostracod: brood selection or a gambling strategy to increase fecundity? / R. L. Pinto, C. E. F. Rocha, K. Martens. - The ontogeny of appendages of Heterocypris salina (Brady, 1868) Ostracoda (Crustacea) / N. Kubanç, O. Özuluğ, C. Kubanç.

Note: Contents Introduction 1. Isotope hydrology: a historical perspective / P.K. Aggarwal, K. Froehlich, R. Gonfiantini, J.R. Gat ISOTOPIC AND NUCLEAR METHODOLOGIES 2. Isotopic tracers for obtaining hydrologic parameters / H. Moser, W. Rauert 3. Hydrologic process studies using radionuclides produced by cosmic rays / D.Lal 4. Stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes / L.L. Gourcy, M. Groening, P.K. Aggarwal 5. Tritium in the hydrologic cycle / R.L. Michel 6. Assessing sources and transformations of sulphate and nitrate in the hydrosphere using isotope techniques / B. Mayer 7. Rare gases / H.H. Loosli, R. Purtschert 8. U and Th series nuclides in natural waters / A. Kaufman 9. Optical isotope ratio measurements in hydrology / E.R.Th. Kerstel, H.A.J. Meijer HYDROLOGIC PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS 10. Some classical concepts of isotope hydrology / J.R. Gat 11. Istotopes in lake studies: a historical perspective / K.Froehlich, R. Gonfiantini, K. Rozanski 12. A review of isotope applications in catchment hydrology / T. Vitvar, P.K. Aggarwal, J.J. McDonnell 13. Contribution of isotopic and nuclear tracers to study of groundwaters / W.M. Edmunds 14. Dating of young groundwater / LN. Plummer 15. Dating of old groundwater - history, potential, limits and future / M.A. Geyh 16. Geotermal systems / Y.K. Kharaka, R.H. Mariner 17. Saline waters / J. Horita HYDROLOGIC PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS 18. Isotopes in atmospheric moisture / K. Rozanski 19. How much climatic information do water isotopes contain? / G. Hoffmann, M. Cuntz, J. Jouzel, M. Werner 20. Stable isotopes through the holocene as recorded in low-latitude, high-altitude ice cores / L.G. Thompson, M.E. Davis 21. Groundwater as an archive of climatic and environmental change / W.M. Edmunds 22. Isotopic palaeolimnology / F. Gasse Appendices A. List of seminal papers on isotope hydrology (the isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen) B. List of papers presented at the 1st IAEA Symposium on Isotope Hydrology (Tokyo, 1963) C. Excerpts from report of 1st IAEA Panel on the Application of Isotope Techniques in Hydrology